Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? (Ray Powell & Jim Carouso)

Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.

They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.

Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.

The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.

The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.

Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.

The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.

Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.

In our second post-“Liberation Day” episode we are joined by John Goyer, Executive Director for Southeast Asia for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to discuss the impact of America’s now-suspended tariff increases on Southeast Asian countries and on the U.S.

John observes that American consumers are likely to experience significant price increases if these tariffs go into effect, since the reason U.S. businesses import from Southeast Asia is because it can get goods less expensively than if they are made in the United States. Meanwhile, both stock and bond markets have reacted very dramatically to each new announcement, and some economists are warning that the U.S. could tip into a recession if they go into full effect.

Southeast Asian countries are already navigating a complicated relationship with China, whose economy has been relying on exports. Beijing’s fraught trade relationship with the U.S. has left it with huge surpluses of goods, many of which have been dumped into neighboring countries. China has also been using Southeast Asia as a place to trans-ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs.

Vietnam, whose tariffs were announced at the rate of 46 percent, actually has fairly low tariffs on U.S. goods, so will need to find other ways to satisfy the Trump Administration. This may include reducing restrictive policies and regulations or purchasing more U.S. goods.

While some Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries have suggested a unified response, ASEAN has not been effective in moving quickly as a bloc. As a result, each country is likely to seek its own deal.

On the question of who the winners might be in a trade war, John observes that it’s not easy to move manufacturing. These are complex, expensive decisions, and companies will be deliberate and measured in their responses.

Learn more about John Goyer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or follow him on LinkedIn.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Critical Minerals Institute Co-chair Melissa Sanderson to explain why allowing China to dominate the critical minerals and rare earths industries creates vulnerabilities for the United States and its allies.

Mel explains how China has come to control the supply chain for materials fundamental to national defense, technological development and economic security, and why it has thrived while other countries have languished in this sector.

Mel explains the steps the United States has taken to secure its critical minerals mining and processing sectors, but also the continuing challenges it faces in competing with China’s price manipulation and industrial policies. She considers the use of tariffs and global partnerships as potential solutions for addressing the problem.

Ultimately, Mel argues that the U.S. must aggressively invest in domestic mining and processing to reduce its reliance on geopolitical adversaries for national security.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Mark Lambert, the recently retired head of the State Department’s China House, joins Jim and Ray to share his insights into the impacts of America’s radical new tariff policy from his extensive diplomatic career in Asia, including postings in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan.

Lambert, having just returned from a trip to Beijing, provides a unique perspective on how Chinese officials and experts are reacting to the escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

His insights include:

- President Xi Jinping's recent diplomatic tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia indicates China's strategic move to contest U.S. influence in countries most affected by the tariffs

- The challenges in U.S.-China negotiations, particularly the disconnect in diplomatic approaches between President Trump's preference for direct leader-to-leader negotiations versus China's more conservative impulses

- Chinese confusion about what specifically the U.S. wants in trade negotiations

- The importance of firmly opposing China’s well-known harmful trade practices (technology theft, subsidized overcapacity) while not decoupling the entire U.S.-China economic relationship

- China's potential retaliatory measures, including restricting rare earth metals exports and reconsidering U.S. Treasury bond holdings

- The strategic value of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific and concerns about how current trade policies might affect these relationships

- The fragility yet resilience of China's economic and political system, including its cultural capacity for "eating bitterness" during difficult times

- Lambert's surprising ease of travel to China as a private citizen, suggesting China's desire to encourage more American visitors despite tensions

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray & Jim interview the former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster about his New York Times bestselling memoir, “At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House”.

Lieutenant General McMaster unpacks how he believes the Trump Administration executed a long-overdue shift in America’s strategy towards China, from a policy based on a false hope of integration into the U.S.-led international order to one that emphasized the need to engage in great power competition to prevent a revisionist China and Russia from overthrowing that order.

McMaster explains how he tried to implement President Trump’s policy of "putting America first" and demanding reciprocal trade agreements and defense burden-sharing among America’s allies, even as he himself advocated with the president for maintaining strong alliances and a muscular forward military presence to deter conflict, and explains his assertion that the greatest provocation for aggressors is the "perception of American weakness".

McMaster also pushes for the rebuilding of America’s defense industrial base in order to deter escalation in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, especially in places like Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea.

Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.

The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.

Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.

Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.

Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.

He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.

Ray and Jim welcome Isaac Stone Fish to discuss why he believes companies that want to do business with China are being compelled to make hard choices due to the increasingly fraught relationship with the U.S. and the West.

Isaac explains how the ongoing economic decoupling with China has been driven in large part by Beijing’s own policies, and that this process has been accelerated since the COVID-19 outbreak. He asserts that U.S. political and business elites, in their enthusiasm for what China might have been, have instead strengthened its authoritarian model to the detriment of the West.

Isaac urges companies to understand the risks inherent in their exposure to China’s market, and explains some of the economic challenges Beijing faces moving forward. He also warns that conflict is a real possibility that must be factored in.

Ray and Jim welcome retired Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and former Ambassador to South Korea, to discuss how alliances are crucial to U.S. national security. They touch on each of the five Indo-Pacific treaty alliances--Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand--and discuss why some are coming together in a new "latticework", replacing the "hub-and-spoke" model of the past. Admiral Harris explains why he has come to advocate for replacing the decades-long U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan and replacing it with one of "strategic clarity". He also discusses the roles of several new Indo-Pacific groupings such as the Quad--U.S., Japan, Australia and India.

Ray and Jim welcome Sue-Lin Wong, investigative journalist from The Economist, to talk about her new podcast series, “Scam, Inc.”

Sue-Lin explains the vast multi-billion criminal network behind the mysterious e-mails, text messages and social media offers that we see every day. She takes us on a harrowing journey from huge scam compounds in Southeast Asia populated by ruthless criminal groups and illegally trafficked people working under often horrific conditions.

From Asia she returns to the United States, where she explains how ordinary people are targeted and ensnared into “investing” their money into these elaborate schemes through a process called “pig-butchering”.

She walks us through the psychological tactics used by scammers; the role of technology and cryptocurrency; the heartbreaking impact of human trafficking in scam compounds; and how Singapore has mobilized a whole-of-society response. She explains how otherwise rational people can be victimized by the scammers’ increasing sophistication and resources.

This crucial conversation highlights the need for awareness at the individual, national and global levels.

Follow Sue-Lin on X at @suelinwong.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim talk to Ian Urbina, Director of the Outlaw Ocean Project about the vast, lawless areas of the sea where dark, extra-legal, often destructive and inhumane activities take place. Ian highlights the ethical concern for the well-being of the 50 million people who work at sea, the environmental impact of the oceans as the earth's climate stabilizer and source of biodiversity, and the fascinating stories that unfold in this hidden world. He also delves into the issues of overfishing--especially China's immense distant-water fishing fleet--and human rights abuses in the fishing industry.

In this "emergency" episode, Ray and Jim welcome retired South Korean Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum back to help explain the extraordinary events of December 3rd–President Yoon Suk Yul’s shocking declaration of martial law, its unanimous rejection by the parliament, and its subsequent repeal by Yoon.

General Chun talks about the ethical and legal dilemma faced by South Korean military personnel, crediting their professionalism and restraint for averting violence. He also discusses South Korea’s history with martial law and how the ever-present threat of North Korean aggression colors that landscape.

The conversation then turns to what is likely to happen next to President Yoon and his administration, and how a potential presidential succession might unfold should he be impeached or resign from office.

General Chun laments the impact Yoon’s actions and their aftermath is likely to have on South Korea’s geopolitical situation, with special emphasis on how it will affect recent positive trends with Japan relations during Yoon’s tenure.

To close, Jim and Ray compare this experience with others they’ve encountered during their long diplomatic and military careers, and also discuss how authoritarian regimes are likely to exploit the chaos in Seoul.

Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros has been leading an extraordinary investigation into Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs) and their malign social, economic and political implications. In this special, in-person interview with co-host Ray Powell, she explains the history and origins of POGOs, their rapid spread under former President Rodrigo Duterte, and their ties to Chinese criminal syndicates.

She explains the remarkable case of Alice Guo, a small city mayor who was implicated following a federal raid on a local POGO. Her extraordinary wealth and evidently false documentation of her Philippine birth raise questions of whether she was planted into the political system, by whom and for what purpose.

The conversation then turns to regional tensions with China--especially in the West Philippine Sea--and the importance of protecting Philippine national interests in the face of foreign interference.

It also discusses the role of the United States and the need for international support in addressing these issues.

Jim & Ray interview former U.S.Ambassador Ted Osius--now the President and CEO of the US-ASEAN Business Council--about the importance of Southeast Asia's rapidly growing economies, especially as companies seek to de-risk away from China's deteriorating business environment. They discuss the growth and potential of Southeast Asia, the opportunities for US investment in the region, and the continuing challenges faced by American companies who want to operate there. They also touch on America's failed involvement with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and how that has negatively affected its economic opportunities and strategic position in Asia. They further discuss ASEAN's role in regional politics--what it can and can't do in the economic, diplomatic and security arenas.

In this episode's "There I was..." segment, Jim recalls how as diplomats in Jakarta he and Ted would meet regularly with a wealthy Indonesian businessman who often had an axe to grind.

Jim and Ray welcome McKinsey & Company’s Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider to discuss how businesses are navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of today’s Indo-Pacific business environment. Ziad asserts that the region is the engine of the global economy which is both economically vibrant but also highly volatile.

Ziad discusses the role of India and Southeast Asia as rising global economic power, and of course, the increasingly complex challenge of operating in China amidst its growing regulatory and geopolitical hazards. He emphasizes the need for companies to be prepared to adapt as circumstances can change quickly, as evidenced by recent supply chains disruptions and black-swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.

They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.

Ray and Jim welcome Stanford University fellow and author Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss her recent book, "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power".

Oriana emphasizes that outsiders often misunderstand the sources of China's strength. She says that while Beijing sometimes emulates Western strategies, it also frequently exploits their weaknesses--for example, engaging strongly with certain developing countries that the U.S. largely ignores.

She further asserts that China engages in entrepreneurial new strategies, such as training developing countries' police forces or building a vast maritime militia force. Many of these approaches are made possible by China's authoritarian political system in ways that democracies cannot easily emulate and probably shouldn't try, though they need to find other ways to contest them using their own strengths.

Oriana examines the diplomatic and military options regarding China's growing threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the need for less bluster but more strength--Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach. Regarding the South China Sea, she discusses her recent New York Times article in which she advocated for "calling China's bluff".

Finally, in this episode's edition of "There I was...", Jim describes working with a U.S. company involved in exploring Indonesia's North Natuna Sea, where there is a dispute with China's vast maritime claims. He observes how a country's own perception of its national interests is often very different from what outsiders believe it should be.

In this special year-end edition of the podcast, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on most significant developments in the Indo-Pacific region throughout 2024 including the economic challenges faced by China amidst the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping, and how concern over its increasing military power and aggression is strengthening the U.S. network of alliances. They also discuss the prospects for a grand U.S.-China deal in the upcoming Trump administration.

They talk about the most surprising developments of 2024, including the recent political upheaval in South Korea and the dramatic confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

They then review some of their favorite, most-viewed/most-heard, and most underrated episodes of the 2024, and give their Indo-Pacific "Person of the Year" nominees: Jim picked China's President Xi Jinping, while Ray chose the recently impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Philippine President Ferdinand "BongBong" Marcos, Jr.

They discuss surprises that may lie in wait for 2025, and what impact emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons will have on the Indo-Pacific order.

Finally, they talk about what they’ve learned and most enjoyed in their first 9 months of podcasting.

E-mail us at indopacificpodcast@gmail.com with your questions and comments!

We are pleased to announce the support of our new sponsor, BowerGroupAsia (BGA), a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific. BGA applies unmatched expertise and experience to help clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.

Ray and Jim talk to Dr. Prashanth Parmeswaran, founder of the ASEAN Wonk newsletter, about "ASEAN centrality"--both its importance and the challenges it faces in managing issues in Southeast Asia. ASEAN, a diplomatic grouping of 10 countries in Southeast Asia, sees itself as the primary driving force in managing the region's relations between its members and with external powers, but there are clear limitations to its ability to resolve complex issues like the South China Sea dispute and hydroelectric dams along the Mekong River. The organization operates by consensus, which can be challenging with diverse member states and conflicting interests. The conversation also touches on the varied perceptions of China's role in the region among ASEAN's member states, and their views on minilateral institutions like the Quad and AUKUS.

In this week's "There I was..." segment, Jim and Ray share their experiences with karaoke in Southeast Asian diplomatic circles.

Member of Parliament Peter Khalil joins Jim and Ray to talk about how Australia has dealt with foreign interference operations--with an emphasis on Beijing's sophisticated influence machine--through national legislation and other security policies and framework documents. This response has been comprehensive, including strengthening Australia's defense, cyber security and intelligence efforts, as well as building security partnerships with like-minded democracies. Universities have been a particular target of foreign interference operations, and Peter discusses how Australia has tried to curb China's corrupting influences in academia while maintaining academic freedom. Another critical challenge has been to build in this national resilience while avoiding xenophobic policies and rhetoric that negatively impacts Australia's important ethnic Chinese communities. Peter ends by emphasizing how a successful the Indo-Pacific future must be built on a middle-power fulcrum, where like-minded countries work together to uphold the crucial rules-based order and deter conflict.

Ray and Jim welcome Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and host of the popular YouTube channel What’s Going on with Shipping?, to talk about how “dark fleets”--or what he calls "parallel fleets"--challenge maritime law and Indo-Pacific security by evading international shipping regulations and sanctions against malign actors.

Sal talks about how Russia is the country most associated with dark fleets, because sanctions have prompted the country to create a parallel fleet using third-country “flags of convenience”. Many of these countries are magnets for bad actors because they have very lax standards and regulations for registration.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO), which is supposed to oversee shipping worldwide, has struggled to enforce and regulate activities at sea, which remains a lawless space.

One particularly thorny issue is illegal ship-to-ship transfers. Besides enabling sanctions evasion, these transfers also pose environmental risks as they frequently result in spills.

Sal also talks about the state of the U.S. shipping industry, both of which are alarmingly small. This presents a national security vulnerability for a great power with global interests, especially as China dominates global shipping and owns over 20 percent of the world’s ships. He argues for bipartisan legislation to reform America’s merchant marine.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

"It's my belief that the incoming administration has chosen USAID...to curb-stomp it to death as a way to send a message to the rest of the federal bureaucracy." -- Michael Schiffer

As Washington DC is in turmoil over the drastic changes to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Jim and Ray welcome its former Asia Bureau Assistant Administrator Michael Schiffer to explain what exactly USAID does and the potential impacts of these changes.

Michael argues that USAID is not just a charity organization but plays a crucial role in supporting U.S. foreign policy. Established in 1961 during the height of the Cold War, he explains that USAID has long been considered essential for America’s national security.

Against charges that USAID’s budget lacks oversight, Michael describes the agency’s bipartisan congressional oversight process. He also explains how the once fully independent agency was legislatively rolled into the State Department in the late 1990s, though still with some degree of operational autonomy.

While agreeing that a thoughtful review of the USAID structure and budget is called for, he contends that the current pause in USAID funding creates a vacuum for other nations–particularly China–to exploit by moving quickly to backfill the gaps in support left by American absence. This allows Beijing to say that America is an unreliable partner.

Follow Michael Schiffer at his page at Justsecurity.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Corrected release (original contained the wrong audio file).

In an episode originally released by the China Global South Podcast titled, "South China Sea Update: Will the U.S. Really Defend the Philippines Against China?", co-host Ray Powell was interviewed about his work illuminating China's maritime gray-zone activities with SeaLight, and about the South China Sea security situation more broadly.

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Donald Trump strongly feels that U.S. security alliances in Europe no longer serve Washington’s long-term interest. In his view, the U.S. is being “ripped off” by wealthy countries that can afford to pay for their protection but choose to rely on the United States instead. He also says much the same thing about the U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea.

Curiously, though, the Philippines is different. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently visited Manila and reaffirmed Washigton’s “ironclad” commitment to protect the Southeast Asian country against “China’s aggression.”

Ray Powell, director of the Sealight initiative at Stanford University’s Gordian Knott Center for National Security Innovation and host of the “Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific Podcast,” joins Eric and CGSP Southeast Asia Editor Edwin Shri Bimo to discuss why the national security team in Washington remains appears to be more committed to the Philippines than other alliance partners.

Jim & Ray talk to former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong Hanscom Smith about the recent erosion of its autonomy and why he still believes in maintaining support for its people. Hanscom argues that despite its recent challenges, Hong Kong remains economically distinct from mainland China, though he acknowledges that the erosion of political autonomy has serious implications for Hong Kong's future. He asserts that international businesses still see value in maintaining a presence in Hong Kong, though the 2019 national security law has created uncertainty. He reflects back on his time there, which encompassed both the 2019 protests and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Finally, in a special update Jim asks Hanscom to respond to recent US State Department warnings to businesses in Hong Kong and the passage through the US House of Representatives of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act.

Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan–author of three recent books on the future of warfare–joins our hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how autonomous weapons (drones) are challenging our military assumptions, and their implications for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.

Mick draws lessons from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and asserts that drones don’t necessarily mean the obsolescence of current inventories of manned weapon systems, but will require significant cultural and organizational changes to integrate them into our strategies, tactics and force structure.

Mick considers the U.S. “Replicator” project to field drones at high volume, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s notion of turning the Taiwan Strait into a drone “hellscape” for any potential invasion. He also talks about how developing countries can leverage inexpensive drone technology to level the playing field against larger aggressors.

If you enjoyed this conversation, don’t forget to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you won’t miss an episode! Your subscription also helps us reach more people on these important Indo-Pacific topics.

You can also follow Mick Ryan’s substack, Futura Doctrina, a conversation about technology, ideas, people and their convergence in contemporary war and competition. Also covering issues related to the war in Ukraine, Chinese aggression against Taiwan and Indo-Pacific defence.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome Chinese espionage expert Matt Brazil to discuss the unprecedented scale of Chinese intelligence operations, emphasizing the role of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He highlights the implications of China's sophisticated program of both domestic and transnational spying and repression of dissent; the involvement of some Chinese academics and students in espionage activities; and the growing threat of cyber hacking as a tool for state-sponsored intelligence.

Matt also explains how the United Front Work Department conducts foreign influence operations, and offers insights into how organizations can mitigate risks when hiring individuals from China.

The conversation concludes with a discussion on why China's wide-ranging program targets local government officials and the broader implications of these actions.

Ray and Jim then discuss how China's whole-of-civilization approach to espionage can increase the scrutiny--including discrimination, profiling and racism--that ordinary ethnic Chinese academics, students and businesspeople face in western countries.

Finally, Ray relates an amusing occasion on which he himself was called a "cyber hacker" while serving in southeast Asia.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randy Schriver joins Jim and Ray to discuss how the security policies pursued by Donald Trump’s second administration are likely to affect the U.S., its allies and the broader region.

Randy explains that while the first Trump administration may have featured certain splashy events and surprising rhetoric, real progress on policy was more evolutionary than revolutionary. For example, America’s Indo-Pacific alliances were actually strengthened despite confrontations over trade and defense burden-sharing.

He further discusses growing influence of economic nationalism on U.S. policy, and how the Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral initiative presents both challenges and opportunities for the struggling American shipbuilding industry. The recently announced U.S.-Japan-South Korea and U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilaterals are also key regional pillars to build upon.

Randy touts the need to address the U.S. defense procurement process and industrial base to meet the challenge of a rapidly growing and increasingly aggressive People’s Republic of China.

Finally, Randy announces some exciting changes upcoming for the Project 2049 Institute, for which he is the Chairman of the Board.

Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami discusses the rise of China's "wolf-warrior" diplomacy, including what motivates their aggressive approach to their diplomatic roles. He explains how China's growing economic and military power has led to a shift in their approach to international relations, with a focus on regaining national prestige at the expense of China's neighbors. Ambassador Yamagami emphasizes the need for countries to speak out against these aggressive tactics and not acquiesce to their demands. He also discusses the importance of the AUKUS and the Quad, Japan's recent rapprochement with South Korea, and the important role of Japan's new national security policy in countering China's influence.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Ray tells his experience with a Chinese military diplomat who had a list of things he had to say.

Jim and Ray interview the Philippine Coast Guard's spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, Commodore Jay Tarriela, about China's continuing harassment of Philippine ships at a time when the mist of the previous day's water-cannoning near Scarborough Shoal was still dissipating. They discuss the importance of countering Chinese aggression and protecting the international rules-based order. They ask Jay to weigh the benefits of the Philippines' transparency campaign against its risks, and to comment on ASEAN's reluctance to publicly back Manila in its maritime struggles and its inability to produce a South China Sea Code of Conduct.

They also laugh and lament over the accusations by Beijing's propagandists about Ray's supposed manipulation of Jay and the Philippine government.

Finally in "There I was...", Ray tells the story of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, when he and his new bride were evacuated from the Philippines.

Former Singaporean diplomat Bilihari Kausikan joins Jim and Ray to discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s second term and his “America First” policies for Asia.

Bilihari emphasizes that a focus on domestic policy is not unusual for U.S. presidents, and that Asian countries have learned to adapt practically to American policy changes. In fact, he believes that the current administration’s policies are closer to America’s historical norm than many realize.

Ultimately, he believes that American stability is crucial for Asian prosperity, and that Asia needs continued U.S. military presence.

According to Bilihari, Asians have different expectations for the so-called rules-based order than westerners, and tend not to be as sensitive to violations of norms. He says that Trump’s emphasis on hard deterrence and “peace through strength” can be more effective in Asia than appeals to values.

Bilihari notes that Singapore in particular values economic rules over political ones.

The conversation turned to Taiwan, which Bilihari believes has suffered from a sense of entitlement to U.S. support, spending insufficiently on its own defense and lacking strategic focus.

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bilihari explains that its main objective is to manage relations between the member states, and that is where it is most effective. He believes that it must continue to adapt to changing realities to stay relevant.

Finally, Bilihari explains his famous assertion that ASEAN is a cow, not a horse.

Read Bilihari Kausikan’s January 2025 article in Foreign Affairs magazine, “Who’s Afraid of America First?”

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome broadcast journalist and news anchor Regina Lay to discuss the dramatic feud between the Marcos and Duterte political dynasties in the Philippines.

Just three years ago these families were united behind a “Uniteam” ticket which secured an overwhelming electoral victory, but today Vice President Sara Duterte stands impeached and former President Rodrigo Duterte has been handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for prosecution for crimes against humanity.

Reggie helps untangle the political and legal elements of these cases, including how the Rodrigo Duterte prosecution holds implications for not only the Philippines but also for the ICC as a landmark test of its legitimacy.

She also unpacks the impeachment case against Sara Duterte, which began with an investigation into her financial dealings but has since blossomed into allegations of plotting to assassinate President Marcos.

The conversation then turns to the conflicting narratives which have fractured along regional and class lines, and also across dueling social media platforms. They discuss how the results of the May 2025 mid-term elections may be impacted by these events, and how the elections will in turn affect how Sara Duterte’s senate trial proceeds.

Finally, they compare these events to the political turmoil in the United States, and consider what opportunities Beijing may seek to exploit amidst their democratic rivals' chaos.

Follow Regina Lay on One News PH, where she co-hosts the afternoon Storycon show.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Thailand’s renowned scholar and journalist Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak to help them understand why the past quarter century has seen Thailand’s politics in a state of near-constant turmoil, and what the prospects are for the years ahead.

Dr. Thitinan explains how the conservative forces of Thailand’s monarchy, judiciary and military have used their institutional power to sideline repeated electoral victories by populist and reformist groups. He discusses how the one-time outsider Thaksin Shinawatra has overcome being deposed by military coup to return to power behind the scenes with the election of his daughter Paetongtarn as prime minister.

He also unpacks Thailand’s political youth movement, and how it actually won the most votes in the last election but was prevented from taking power by an alliance of the country’s traditional powers and Thaksin. He explains how this young party–now called the People’s Party–remains a potent force.

Thailand’s turmoil has led to economic stagnation as foreign investment has shied away from the uncertainty of its politics, but Dr. Thitinan believes stability in the medium term should usher in a period of growth.

Geopolitically, Thailand has been among America’s least reliable allies, he contends, because its anti-democratic forces have driven it in the direction of more autocratic regimes like China’s. Meanwhile, the Thai government faces pressure from Beijing to send Uyghur refugees back to China, which is opposed by the U.S.

Thailand is also dealing with threats to its security from across the border, where Myanmar’s civil war threatens to spill over.

Dr. Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He is also a senior advisor with our podcast’s sponsor, BowerGroupAsia.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim talk to Elbridge Colby, author and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, about his provocative views concerning America's need to urgently address the China threat by prioritizing the Indo-Pacific theater. They discuss and debate the interaction between sharp honesty and assurance when dealing with America's allies, their concerns about U.S. staying power, and whether accepting risks in other theaters might actually undermine deterrence with respect to Taiwan and East Asia. The wide-ranging conversation covers a range of topics related to U.S. foreign policy and defense strategy, including China's gray-zone coercion and America's defense industrial base.

The pilot episode of 'Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?' explores why people should pay attention to current developments in this vast, dynamic and increasingly turbulent region. Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso draw from their decades of military and diplomatic experience in Asia and the Pacific as they discuss the region's geographic scope, expanding population and economic dynamism. They also delve into the growing military concerns, particularly the U.S. competition with China and the potential for armed conflict. The conversation delves into the importance of alliances and partnerships, the role of ASEAN and other new groupings like AUKUS and the Quad, and the need for ensuring free and open commerce.

"If you don't have an India play, you're not recognizing the realities of growth over the next 30 or 40 years on our planet."

U.S.-India Business Council President Ambassador Atul Keshap spotlights the shared values and democratic principles between India and the United States, emphasizing that India's rise to become the world's third largest economy will be a net benefit for the American people. The conversation also covers India's economic growth, the challenges of attracting foreign direct investment, the need for job creation, and the complexities of doing business in India. Additionally, the discussion touches on India's geopolitical relationships, including its border disputes with China, its involvement in the Quad alliance, and its pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

Jim and Ray talk to Stanford University scholar Arzan Tarapore, who highlights India's emerging role as an anchor of U.S. security policy in the Indo-Pacific, despite the fact that India values its strategic autonomy. Arzan highlights the growing threat posed to India by China. He emphasizes India's need to prioritize investments in its Navy to counter this challenge, but also lays out concerns that these investments are starting to lag. The conversation also touches on India's relationship with Russia and the balancing act it faces in maintaining partnerships with opposing geopolitical camps.

For our "There I was..." segment, Jim talks about his time among some of the world's top baseball players while he was posted in the Dominican Republic.

Why Should We Care About Airpower in the Indo-Pacific?

Jim and Ray welcome General Kevin Schneider, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), to explain why airpower matters for deterring and defeating aggression in a massive region largely dominated by oceans.

General Schneider explains what lessons PACAF has learned from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and how concepts like “agile combat employment” and “adaptive basing” are crucial to making sure air forces are not easily targeted by China’s large and growing arsenal of precision strike weapons.

He also discusses how the U.S. Air Force’s 2025 Resolute Force Pacific (REFORPAC) exercise will take place during the biennial U.S.-Australia Talisman Sabre exercise to demonstrate the capability to concentrate airpower in the region

The general digs into what China’s rollout of “sixth generation” fighter aircraft prototypes means for the future of American air superiority in the Indo-Pacific.

General Schneider explains the importance of allies and partners to deterring aggressors, and specifically recounts his recent experience delivering U.S. T-6C training aircraft to Vietnam.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China.

They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.

Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.

Author and Chatham House Associate Fellow Bill Hayton joins the podcast to explain how Vietnam has embarked on its own campaign to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, a decade after China pursued its own campaign.

While Vietnam’s new artificial island bases will alter the South China Sea balance of power, China’s response has been muted, especially compared to its aggressive opposition to nearly every minor move the Philippines makes.

Bill also discusses Vietnam’s concerns over the large-scale damming of the Mekong River. He explains how the river delta is crucial to Vietnam's agriculture and economy, but that upstream damming in China, Laos and other countries has caused substantial disruption.

Turning to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bill unpacks why it has been ineffective in addressing external and transnational threats, such as Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the Mekong River.

Bill also discusses the potential of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to significantly disrupt Vietnam’s economy, as well as Vietnam’s relations with China under its new leader, To Lam.

Follow Bill Hayton on X, @bill_hayton, and check out his well-regarded books on Vietnam, China, and the South China Sea on his website, billhayton.com.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

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Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges.

General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.

The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.

General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.

In our “There I was…” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.

Two of India’s most respected foreign policy, national security and international relations experts, former Ambassador Alok Prasad and Mr. Vaman Desai, join Jim and Ray to explore the evolving bilateral relationship between the U.S. and India, which is increasingly seen as one of the globe’s defining partnership for the 21st century. They reflect on the recent visit to Washington by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Our guests reflected that even with India bracing for the prospect of Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs–especially given India’s large trade surplus with the U.S.–the two countries agreed to attempt to more than double bilateral trade by 2030 under the “Mission 500” target.

India has emerged as a hub for “global capability centers”, a magnet for foreign countries. India is also benefiting from companies looking for new manufacturing locations as China becomes less competitive, but it will need to overcome a reputation for being a hard place to do business.

Meanwhile, India is expected to increase its imports of American energy and defense articles–both of which would mark shifts from Russian suppliers.

Technological cooperation is another key area of focus, especially in emerging tech such as autonomous systems.

India and China have stabilized their long-running border tensions, but a host of other concerns remain, including over China’s damming of rivers running into northern India.

India’s role in global governance is multifaceted, as New Delhi continues to balance its relationships with international organizations as diverse as BRICS and the Quad.

Learn more about Ambassador Alok Prasad, Mr. Vaman Dasai and the rest of BowerGroupAsia’s India team.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim are joined by retired Lieutenant General Lori Reynolds, former U.S. Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Information, who provides insights into China's recently uncovered "Volt Typhoon" cyber operation and its implications for national security, both within the U.S. and across the free world. They discuss Beijing's shift from simple snatch-and-grab intellectual property theft to now conducting high-level cyber espionage and embedding its operatives within a nation's critical infrastructure. They also talk about the data security and cognitive threats posed by TikTok and the need for free countries to become more resilient, and to leverage their own asymmetric advantages by exposing the Chinese Communist Party's cyber aggressions.

00:00 Introduction and Background

05:12 China's Shifting Cyber Strategy: From Intellectual Property Theft to Critical Infrastructure Embedding

11:58 The Threat of TikTok: Data Access and Manipulation

22:23 The Threat of TikTok and the Need for Divestment

28:04 Leveraging Asymmetric Advantage: The Power of Truth and Strategic Narratives

32:44 Contesting Chinese Influence: Exposing and Countering Manipulation in Various Industries

Jim and Ray talk to Dr. Euan Graham of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute about how Malaysia's positive relations with Beijing--despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea--may be attributed to its deep economic ties with China. In particular, Malaysia's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has taken a friendly stance towards China and downplayed security concerns, even as China continues to press its maritime claims.

They discuss Malaysia's approach to geopolitics as it is about to assume the rotating chair of ASEAN, with which Beijing has been slow-rolling South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations for decades--a circumstance that has grated on leaders in the Philippines who have sought stronger ASEAN support. For this reason, ASEAN's centrality in managing security issues is increasingly in question.

Malaysian leaders see their approach as being pragmatic and flexible, while they see the Philippine approach as being unnecessarily confrontational.

In "There I was...", Jim tells the story of his meeting with Anwar's daughter and the U.S.'s efforts to secure Anwar's release from jail two decades ago.

Ray and Jim examine why we should care about the seemingly insignificant islands scattered across the Pacific region with former U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland. They highlight the strategic importance of these islands in terms of their supply routes and military access. John explains the Compacts of Free Association by which the U.S. guarantees the security of three Micronesian countries in exchange for exclusive access. They also discuss the rapidly expanding role of China in these island countries and the challenges of "elite capture" and corruption. The conversation emphasizes the need for the United States and its allies to avoid the temptation to ignore these countries and allow them to slip into China's orbit through benign neglect.

Finally, in the latest edition of "There I was...", Ray recounts how he and Jim were able to navigate a tricky international dilemma in Australia with the help of a very good military lawyer.

Ray and Jim discuss the upcoming 11 April 2024 Trilateral Leaders' Summit between the Philippines, Japan and the United States with their guests Chris Johnstone, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, and Victor "Dindo" Manhit, Founder and Managing Director of the Stratbase Group in Manila. They highlight the importance of this meeting in demonstrating a united front against China's assertiveness in the region. They also discuss the potential for increased military cooperation between the Philippines and Japan and the need for economic incentives to strengthen the relationship. The conversation ends by taking on the question of whether these efforts are sufficient to deter China's aggression. Overall, the conversation emphasizes the importance of collective action and cooperation in addressing regional security challenges.

Ray and Jim welcome back one of their most popular guests, retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, to discuss his recent assertion that Beijing’s malign influence operations–which extend from hacking computer networks to undermining faith in institutions to altering the media landscape–have reached the point of constituting a ‘silent invasion’ of the U.S. homeland.

Mike discusses his documented concerns about the extraordinary case of Elon Musk, America’s most important industrialist whose core businesses also have deep dependencies on Beijing’s largesse, and who has also now become a major political figure. Mike answers questions about why he has raised alarms about Musk as being “compromised and co-opted” by America’s most powerful adversary.

Mike argues that America needs leaders who can lead a national conversation and “connect the dots” for the public so that Americans can understand the pervasive nature of the threat.

Jim and Ray discuss the remarkable Southeast Asian nation of Singapore with Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia's Singapore office. They explore why how this small city-state emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. Nydia talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. They also touch on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, she explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Jim tells Ray his experience with a Singapore COVID quarantine.

Jim and Ray talk to former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzullo to discuss the critical challenge of defense procurement and weapons production in the face of the looming threat of conflict in the Indo-Pacific while wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Pezzullo emphasizes the urgent need for the Australia, the U.S. and their allies to address their defense industrial base capacity to deter such a war--or win, if necessary. For Australia he proposes the creation of a statutory commission to streamline the procurement process and speed up production. He also highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts and the need for a collective security agreement in the Pacific region to counter China's strategic ascendancy.

Jim and Ray welcome U.S. Congressman Joe Courtney, who represents Connecticut’s 2nd District, home to the General Dynamics Electric Boat shipyard in Groton.

Rep. Courtney addresses concerns raised by some of our previous guests–most notably former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull–about whether U.S. Virginia-class submarine construction can support Australia’s requirements under the Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) agreement.

Representative Courtney emphasizes that even in America’s polarized political climate, AUKUS retains bipartisan support, and that keeping up with its nuclear-powered submarine production goals is essential for both U.S. and Australian national security.

Even so, supply chain and workforce development challenges continue to threaten the program, and America’s defense industrial base will need even more attention to make sure the U.S. and its allies can keep pace with the rapidly growing military threat posed by China.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia CEO Ernie Bower to discuss how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will affect regional trade dynamics.

Ernie explains Trump often uses tariffs and tariff threats to achieve both trade and non-economic objectives, this also creates significant uncertainty for American companies which must quickly adjust their strategies.

He explains how investment in the U.S. had already been increasing due to incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act, but that countries are now looking for more ways to protect their own markets from U.S. tariffs.

Ernie asserts that the geopolitical landscape is shifting toward “South-South” cooperation among the countries of Asia and Africa, and that companies are increasingly making manufacturing and investment decisions because of these geopolitical and geo-economic changes. He says that the technology and energy sectors have been leading the transition into new markets.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Taiwan Member of Parliament Wang Ting-Yu to discuss the “gray zone” warfare being prosecuted daily by China against his country, highlighted by the recent spate of subsea power and communications cables that link Taiwan’s main island to its outer islands and the world.

Mr. Wang emphasizes that Taiwan’s government remains under constant threat of subversion, coercion, espionage and war from Beijing, and that its intimidation campaign affects Taiwan’s security as well as the daily lives of its citizens.

He underlines Taiwan’s continued need for international support to build its resilience and its deterrence through military modernization. At the same time, Taiwan needs to maintain the integrity of its democratic, free-market system against Beijing's predations.

Wang emphasizes Taiwan's strategic value to the U.S. and its allies while noting its need to accelerate ongoing military modernization efforts.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

RAND’s senior behavioral scientist Todd Helmus joins Jim Carouso and Ray Powell to explain how China exploits the maritime “gray zone” to pursue its aggressive and expansionist policies without triggering open conflict.

They examine how China’s competitors have seen their sovereignty eroded and their influence wane by remaining passive in the face of gray-zone aggression. They discuss the crucial role of assertive transparency and affirmative engagement in illuminating these activities in order to counter them, while also building resiliency and international support against them.

Turning their attention to the South China Sea, they discuss how China has turned its coast guard into a large and highly capable paramilitary force, and has paired it with its maritime militia to pressure the Philippines into surrendering its own maritime rights. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ southeast Asian neighbors’ responses have ranged from muted to outwardly critical of Manila due to their fear of economic retaliation from Beijing.

They conclude by talking about how the U.S. and its allies need to develop comprehensive strategies to counter China’s gray-zone campaign before it achieves its expansionist objectives.

Read RAND’s work on gray-zone responses:

• Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations
• How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone

Produced by IEJ Media ), sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Rhombus Power founder and CEO Anshu Roy explains to Ray and Jim how artificial intelligence (AI) has been able to predict future global crises months before they occurred--including events such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and this summer's regime-ending political instability in Bangladesh.

By sifting through vast amounts of data, AI augments and complements human analysis by identifying patterns and anomalies that even the best analysts can easily miss, and then synthesizing them into projections about future events.

Roy further explains how important it is to carefully and continuously curate data sources to prevent AI "hallucinations" as often occur on less sophisticated applications such as ChatGPT. Rhombus incorporates over 500 streams of publicly available and commercial data sources--from satellite service providers to media to socioeconomic data.

In the hands of responsible actors AI has tremendous potential to prevent future conflict and other crises by reducing uncertainty and buying time for better decision-making. However, it can also be a terrifying tool in the hands of our adversaries.

Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to discuss Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP).

They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security.

Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China.

This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism.

To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”

Ray and Jim welcome Justin Bassi, former Australian National Security Advisor and current Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Justin explains what the “Quad” grouping between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India means for Indo-Pacific security, stability and prosperity–on issues from supply chain resiliency, cyber security and maritime security.

Justin makes the case that given the threat from China, the Quad needs to mature so as to overtly include security as a key component of its remit, despite India’s status as a non-aligned nation. He also believes that developing a range of other minilateral groupings like the so-called “Squad” (U.S.-Japan-Australia-Philippines) are crucial.

Our guest addresses the tension between the Quad and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which desires “centrality” in Indo-Pacific affairs, and explains why the Quad can provide important alternatives to countering China’s growing influence across the region.

Justin turns to the U.S.-Australia alliance, and how Canberra’s approach to China has garnered respect in Washington. He delves into how the countries need to work together on issues such as defense and cyber security.

Follow Justin at the ASPI web site or on X.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia’s Managing Director for Indonesia Doug Ramage to look at the country’s economic and geopolitical position as it moves on from a decade under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to new President Prabowo Subianto. They consider Indonesia’s position as a rising power with a $1 trillion economy, a G20 membership and leadership position within the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations.

Doug credits the Jokowi presidency for championing a stable political and investment climate, and explains why he believes that Prabowo is seeking continuity while also promoting social development.

He explains that Prabowo will face a rising imperative to balance Jakarta’s relationships with Washington DC and Beijing in the face of rising great-power competition. He will seek to maintain Indonesia’s strong regional position and continue to promote ASEAN-centrality, while also continuing to promote its role as a leader in the Muslim world.

Doug unpacks the strains created by the twin impulses toward economic growth and trade protectionism, and how these may impact the former defense minister’s military modernization plans and the slow-moving effort to relocate the capital city.

Ray and Jim are joined by Brent Sadler, author of "U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century", to talk about China's rapidly growing naval power, including its ability to exercise power globally, coerce other countries and undermine Western influence. They discuss whether China's numerical superiority equates to superior capability and the growing vulnerability of surface vessels. They examine the situation in the South China Sea and examine how counterinsurgency tactics may be necessary to deal with China's paramilitary coast guard and maritime militia. The conversation then moves on to the US presence in the region and the need to develop maritime statecraft. They discuss the severe challenges facing US shipbuilding, including the lack of public shipyards and the shortage of shipyard workers and naval architects. The conversation concludes with the potential of the AUKUS alliance and the importance of Australia's investment in naval shipbuilding.

At the end, Ray and Jim introduce their new "There I was..." segment, in which they trade stories from their military and foreign service careers. Ray goes first by sharing his first crisis after arriving in Australia, when he realized he had no idea how to get the Secretary of Defense on the phone.

Ray & Jim talk to Indonesian investment banker, entrepreneur, philanthropist, musician and podcaster Gita Wirjawan, who was also the country's former trade minister from 2011-14. They discuss the significance of Indonesia as the world's third largest democracy and the largest country in Southeast Asia, and its potential to grow its economy and internationalize its profile under incoming President Prabowo Subianto. They discuss Probowo's past allegations of human rights violations, and what implications this has on his future presidency. The conversation touches on topics such as Indonesia's view of its place in the region and in ASEAN; whether it should join the BRICS grouping; its tradition of non-alignment and its perceived security threats; the ongoing relocation of its capital city; and the need for more and different sources of energy and increased foreign direct investment for the country's development.

Afterwards, Jim asks Ray to respond to online rumors that Ray is secretly a U.S. government agent.

Why Should We (and especially Taiwan) Care About China’s New “Invasion Barges”?

Defense expert Tom Shugart joins Ray and Jim to explain China’s so-called “invasion barges”, which have recently gained wide attention exercising along China’s coast. Tom explains how these barges are a significant leap forward for China’s ability to carry out a Taiwan invasion.

Tom explains how these barges would be used in an amphibious landing along Taiwan’s famously inaccessible coastline, and how their design opens up options for China to overcome this obstacle.

These barges highlight the need for Taiwan to bolster its defenses along its western coast and into the Taiwan Strait itself. This should also serve as a wake-up call to the United States, as its assumptions about China’s military capabilities are rapidly growing obsolete.

Tom also talks about his recent work highlighting the need for U.S. air base hardening against attack in the Indo-Pacific, as its large bases are now highly vulnerable to China’s growing arsenal of stand-off weapons.

A former submarine warfare officer, Tom also discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. shipbuilding industry to ensure its ability to meet America’s own needs, as well as those for its ally Australia under the AUKUS agreement.

Tom asserts that its new barges are further evidence that China can no longer be considered merely an imitator of America, but is now innovating in ways that are pushing its capabilities strongly forward.

As the geopolitical consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would be profound for US alliances, rapid investment in defense infrastructure is critical for both the US and Taiwan.

Follow Tom Shugart on X, @tshugart3.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan.

Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal.

The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing.

They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct.

To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Admiral Phil Davidson, the former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from 2018-2021, discusses the so-called "Davidson window"--the period beginning in 2027 which many believe is when the threat of war over Taiwan will be at its greatest. He explains how his name became associated with this term. The then emphasizes the need for a strong conventional deterrent, the importance of deepening alliance relationships, and how showing commitment in other regions is crucial to averting war over Taiwan. He explains how China's growing bellicosity is perceived by other countries, and how Beijing is executing a pressure campaign to achieve its objectives short of war using asymmetric means.

Admiral Davidson also discusses the need for devoting resources Indo-Pacific defense and where those could come from, for addressing U.S. and allied force structure deficiencies and for assuring the region that the U.S. remains an effective and reliable security partner. He concludes by emphasizing Taiwan's importance to key U.S. allies--especially Japan.

To close, Jim tells the story of when he was accused of being a CIA spy for being "too nice".

Jim and Ray welcome Chris Johnstone, a Japan expert and former CIA, National Security Council, and Pentagon official, to discuss the implications of the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, politics, trade policies, and alliance with America.

Chris explains Japan's crucial role as a node in America’s Indo-Pacific alliance structure, but also, since the 2017 U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japan has been assuming a greater leadership role in the region.

U.S. tariffs will likely significantly impact Japan's GDP growth as well as its ability to finance the U.S.-produced weapons needed to defend itself against a rapidly growing Chinese military threat. Japan, like many other Indo-Pacific countries, will likely seek to strengthen its own domestic industries and diversify its trading relationships to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market and sources for high-end military equipment.

Japan’s government is facing upcoming elections in which it will need to be seen as effective in countering the U.S. tariffs. The government will not want to be seen as weak or submissive to the U.S. in its responses while still protecting its overall relationship with Washington.

Chris examines the pros and cons of various approaches Japan may take in response to reciprocal tariffs, as well as the larger question of how America’s abrupt policy changes and dismissal of previous trade agreements undermines the trust of its most important East Asian ally.

Learn more about Chris Johnstone at the Asia Group or follow him on LinkedIn.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or on LinkedIn or BlueSky under our show title, "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?"

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media and Ian Ellis-Jones, follow him on X (@ianellisjones) or LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Australian naval expert Jennifer Parker joins Ray and Jim to talk about the nuclear-powered submarines Australia will be acquiring as a result of the new trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) partnership. Jen discusses the advantages of nuclear-powered submarines over their diesel-powered cousins, and the reactions of Australia's neighbors to the abrupt AUKUS announcement. She also explains the distinction between nuclear power and nuclear weapons, and how confusion over these terms played a role in the controversy surrounding the deal. Jen unpacks the risks involved with such a significant leap in technology--such as its high cost and the country's lack of nuclear expertise and infrastructure--and how Australia is working to mitigate those risks. Jen takes on some of the AUKUS deal's critics, including those who believe Australia should prioritize a close-in defense of Australia. Finally, in our "There I was ..." segment, Ray tells the story about how he had to learn English all over again when he served in Australia.

Jim and Ray welcome retired Major General Mick Ryan, Royal Australian Army and retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, U.S. Navy to discuss the importance of defending Taiwan. They highlight the profound consequences of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan and its implications for the United States, Australia and the region. They emphasize the need to communicate the significance of Taiwan to the public, and to strengthen deterrence against China's aggression. The conversation explores the challenges of deterrence in the modern age and the need for a comprehensive approach that goes beyond military capabilities. Mick discusses his recent book about a hypothetical war over Taiwan and the importance of land operations in the defense of Taiwan.

Jim and Ray talk to Indonesian expert Aristyo Darmawan about how international law applies to the contest over the South China Sea. Aristyo explains how a rules-based international order ensures equal footing for all countries, and unpacks the history and significance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)--particularly from an Indonesian perspective.

They also discuss the challenges and limitations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations, and whether they will ever result in an actual agreement or whether they are being used by Beijing as a delaying tactic while it consolidates control. Specifically, Aristyo answers the question of whether ASEAN is able to address the actual security concerns of a nation under direct threat such as the Philippines currently faces from China.

The conversation concludes with a comparison of Canberra and Jakarta as capital cities, and then Jim tells the story of how his family weathered severe flooding during his tour in Indonesia.

Michael Brosowski, founder of the Blue Dragon Children's Foundation in Hanoi, discusses how his organization combats human trafficking in Vietnam, though he asserts that trafficking is a global problem--a crime against humanity that affects everyone.

Trafficking in Vietnam is a constantly changing and evolving challenge, one that often targets disadvantaged youth seeking job and life opportunities. Blue Dragon has leveraged collaboration with the Vietnamese and other governments to intervene.

Last decade one of the biggest problems Blue Dragon found was that women were being trafficked across the border into China, where decades of the "One-Child Policy" had left a severe gender imbalance. Blue Dragon has worked with both governments to stem the flow of brides across the border so that it is a more manageable problem today.

Michael discusses how Blue Dragon often conducts dramatic, sometimes risky rescue operations to secure trafficked persons' freedom. These require careful planning and often involve rapid responses to calls for help, sometimes even across borders.

Aftercare for survivors is a key part of the program. This is highly individualized, and may include psychological, financial, vocational and legal supports.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel joins Jim and Ray for 2025's inaugural episode, in which he discusses why the alliance between the U.S. and Japan is critical to the security of both nations and of a vital but volatile region.

In his characteristically forthright style, he explains how the Japan alliance strengthens America's strategic position, especially as it has been increasing its investments in its own defense. Multilateral cooperation among allies--an alliance "latticework--is, he says, an asymmetric advantage for the U.S. to offset an increasingly aggressive but still largely isolated China.

Turning to economic issues, the ambassador asserts that trade imbalances don't tell the whole story, and that Japan is a major investor in the U.S. economy. Moreover, he makes the case that deterring China can't be seen solely in military terms but must consider economic statecraft as a key element of strategic power.

Ambassador Emanuel talks about the evolution and impact of 2024's two major trilateral summits--one between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the other between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines. He explains that Japan has had an important influence on building regional resilience against coercion and aggression through its defense and economic cooperation programs.

Finally, he explains how he used social media to influence the conversation in East Asia, supporting Japan while calling out China for its malign actions and misleading messages.

Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Steve Okun joins Jim and Ray to talk about the suddenly raging trade war between the U.S. and China and what kind of impact it may have on the global trading system.

Steve observes that international investment is largely frozen due to the uncertainty about what the U.S. goals are, which tariffs are temporary versus permanent, and whether the U.S. and China can come to a negotiated settlement.

Steve also explains that while China has certainly exploited its advantage in manufacturing, the U.S. has long enjoyed its own advantage in the services sectors–such as entertainment, finance, health, and tourism. He says these U.S. industries may suffer under a more restrictive trade environment.

The discussion also turns to international organizations and groupings like the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether they are losing influence in the global system as the big powers go their own way.

Steve then speculates how U.S-China trade talks may proceed - and what cards Donald Trump and Xi Jinping believe they still have to play. Regardless, he expects continued volatility to continue as a new normal moving forward.

Follow Steve Okun on his very popular LinkedIn profile, or at his consultancy, APAC Advisors.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Union College Professor Mark Dallas--also a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Commerce--joins Jim and Ray to delve into how the recently accelerating movement of global supply chains away from China is affecting consumers, employment and national security, both in the U.S. and around the world.

Professor Dallas explains the importance and complexity of global supply chains, and explores how COVID-19 brought their vulnerabilities into the public awareness. He unpacks how 'friend-shoring' has emerged as a western strategy to reduce supply-chain reliance on potential adversaries by sourcing goods and labor through more friendly countries.

One reason China's manufacturing capabilities became so dominant in global supply chains was its ability to geographically cluster manufacturing sites closely together for maximum efficiency.

Professor Dallas explains that while authoritarian policies, geopolitical shocks and cybersecurity threats pose serious challenges to global supply chain integrity, decoupling supply chains away from China is far more complicated than it sounds.

Jim and Ray welcome former Ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin--now the Founder and CEO of Export Now, a firm that helps companies do business in China. Frank explains why he believes economic decoupling from China is unwise, and why he believes that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization was not a mistake but instead forced Beijing to make important reforms that benefited U.S. businesses.

Our guest emphasizes the importance of balancing geopolitical considerations with business decisions, and advocates for a positive U.S. trade policy of collaboration with like-minded nations rather than over-focusing on adversarial relationships with countries like China.

The discussion also rolls around to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, the potential implications of increased tariffs under Donald Trump, and the challenges posed by China's rise. It explores the history of trade agreements, the current political climate surrounding free trade, and the impact of China's economic strategies on global markets.

Frank emphasizes the importance of openness and collaboration in trade, while also addressing the need for defensive measures against unfair practices. He concludes with a call for proactive leadership in U.S. trade relations and the potential for future agreements.

Jim and Ray welcome Suzanne Vares-Lum, retired U.S. Army Major General, outgoing President of the East-West Center and Director-designate of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Together they explore the geopolitical significance of the geographically vast but sparsely populated Pacific Islands region.

They discuss how these small island nations have found themselves in the midst of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, while many have also become unlikely players in the cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. At the same time, the concerns that preoccupy these nations at international gatherings such as the Pacific Islands Forum include illegal fishing and climate change.

Suzy explains how the U.S. has been renewing its commitment to many of these countries through education and leadership programs, as well as opening new embassies and funding infrastructure projects.

To close, Ray tells the story of when he dispatched a special forces officer to rescue a stuffed animal.

Jim and Ray welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the significance of AUKUS--a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and the US--focusing on its implications for defense and technology collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.

Their discussion covers the origins of AUKUS, its strategic importance, the controversies around "Pillar One" (nuclear submarine production), and the challenges and potential for expanding partnerships beyond the three countries in "Pillar Two" (advanced technology cooperation).

The conversation then moves on to the need for building enhanced deterrence capabilities to meet the growing China threat, and the evolving nature of defense technology collaboration.

Retired Ambassador Bob Blackwill and Richard Fontaine talk to Jim and Ray about how America failed to complete its "pivot to Asia" during the past decade and across successive administrations. The authors of the recent bestseller, 'The Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power', argue that America's much-celebrated geostrategic rebalance has never fully materialized, resulting in a weaker US position in the face of a rapid rise in Chinese power and aggression. They emphasize the increasing importance of the Indo-Pacific, the area of greatest geopolitical competition and compounding threats to the global order. They call for a belated but properly executed pivot that includes economic, military and diplomatic components. The conversation also touches on the challenges of getting the American people and political class behind a pivot to Asia, the need for increased defense spending and the importance of deterrence in dealing with China.

Ray & Jim talk about an Asian civil war and human rights disaster that many have never heard of with former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, Scot Marciel.

Myanmar is a southeast Asian country of 55 million people strategically located between Thailand, China, India, and Bangladesh, which experienced a military coup in 2021. The ruling junta has been responsible for massive human rights violations and a humanitarian crisis, while a growing resistance has recently gained significant ground.

China has strategic interests in Myanmar, and has supported both the military and some ethnic armed groups. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has struggled to address the crisis. The best hope for Myanmar's is for the resistance to prevail and negotiate a new federal system, but there are risks of balkanization among the ethnic groups.

At the end, special guest Biak Tha Hlawn--now a student at Stanford University--shares her personal experience as a member of the persecuted Chin ethnic group, and the losses her family has suffered due to the conflict. Those who wish to support her relief efforts can contact Hlawn at bhlawn@stanford.edu.