Upside (Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed)

My partner Mads and I share the same vision and values but see the world completely differently. We fight, we love, we share, we build, we do, we ponder, we tussle... rinse repeat. Often having difficult conversations behind the scenes that we've decided to have in public. 

This week we're talking about:

• The new govt. and what it means for our industry.
• Can we rebuild our relationship with the EU, should we.
• Is NVIDIA worth $3trn - would you buy now.
• Can AI impact education and how.
• AI in VC - yes no good bad how when.
• What is our responsibility as VCs to the future for our children. 
• What makes a great founder.

Every week we all discuss what's been bothering us in startup land. Howard Kingston joins Mads and I this week, and we dig into:

• Govt endorsement - death knell or life force?
• New stock exchange rules - will they make any difference?
• Why don't we want to see European founders rich?
• Founder financial wellbeing - is it the VCs responsibility?
• AI - how will it make or break my startup?
• Comms, marketing and branding hacks

And more...

In this episode, Dan, Mads, and guest Guillermo discuss various topics including the AI bubble, the impact of AI on the sales function, the best route for tech founders, the startup ecosystem in Spain, and the potential effects of a Trump administration on European venture. They also touch on the need for an AI bill in the UK, the challenges of fundraising and going global for startups, and the importance of space exploration.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
03:40 Transforming the Sales Function with AI
07:42 The Best Route for Tech Founders in Funding
12:53 Challenges and Opportunities in Different Markets
15:14 The Impact of a Trump Administration on European Venture
19:42 The Regulatory Landscape for AI in Spain and the UK
23:57 The Benefits of Space Exploration

Takeaways

There is a debate about whether AI is in a bubble, with some arguing that the amount of capital going into AI may not result in enough future revenue to counteract the expenses.
AI has the potential to transform the sales function by enabling sales reps to do more and automate certain tasks, but there are concerns about the impact of AI on job roles and the genericisation of content.
Raising venture capital is not suitable for every tech founder, and bootstrapping may be a better option for some. It depends on the founder's goals, the potential for global growth, and the need for rapid scaling.
The startup ecosystem in Spain is smaller compared to countries like the UK and Germany, which can limit growth opportunities for local startups. Going global and targeting international markets early on can increase the chances of success.
The UK government is considering an AI bill, but there are concerns about the potential impact on AI research and development. The UK's permissive regime has been beneficial for innovation, and it remains to be seen how regulations will evolve post-Brexit.
Space exploration, such as returning to the moon, can lead to scientific advancements and technological innovations that benefit society as a whole.

Summary

In this episode of The Seed, Dan, Mads, and Maja discuss various topics related to European venture and the startup ecosystem. They cover SPACs, investing vs gambling, the UK and US public markets, go-to-market strategies for AI-first products, and Revolut's UK banking license. The conversation touches on the challenges and opportunities faced by European founders, the importance of creating global champions, and the need for a more unified European ecosystem.

Keywords

European venture, startup ecosystem, SPACs, investing, gambling, UK public markets, US public markets, go-to-market strategies, AI-first products, Revolut, UK banking license, European founders, global champions, unified ecosystem

Takeaways

SPACs are making a comeback as a way for struggling companies with high valuations to go public.
Investing is different from gambling because it involves having an edge and expecting to make a profit over multiple investments.
The UK public markets are showing positive signs, with more institutional capital flowing back into UK equities.
European founders often face challenges in accessing capital and building their businesses, leading them to seek opportunities outside their home countries.
Go-to-market strategies for AI-first products require a focus on value proposition, defining use cases, and developing marketing and sales channels.
Revolut's UK banking license is a significant step towards creating a global champion in the fintech space.
The European ecosystem would benefit from more unity and collaboration to support the growth of startups and create more successful companies.

Chapters

00:00 The Return of SPACs
03:03 Investing vs. Gambling
08:16 The Rebound of the UK Equities Market
12:16 Navigating Fragmented Capital Access
15:30 Go-to-Market Strategies for AI-First Products
18:10 Revolut's UK Banking License

Summary
Leo Ringer, co-founder and partner at Form Ventures, discusses the misconception that Europe is a backwater for innovation and startups. He argues that Europe has made significant progress in producing great companies and that the narrative needs to shift to focus on the advantages and strengths of the European ecosystem. Leo suggests creating a streamlined, pan-European legal entity for startups and emphasizes the importance of the tech and investment community coming up with ideas to address regulatory challenges. The conversation also touches on topics such as cryptocurrency, universal basic income, and US consumer fatigue.

Keywords
Europe, innovation, startups, regulation, narrative, pan-European legal entity, cryptocurrency, universal basic income, US consumer fatigue

Takeaways

• Europe has made significant progress in producing great companies and the narrative needs to shift to focus on the advantages and strengths of the European ecosystem.
• Creating a streamlined, pan-European legal entity for startups could help address regulatory challenges and promote cross-border collaboration.
• The tech and investment community should actively contribute ideas to policymakers to shape regulations and overcome regulatory obstacles.
• Cryptocurrency and its regulation continue to be a polarizing topic, with different perspectives on its future and impact.
• The rise of artificial intelligence and automation raises questions about the future of work and the need for alternative sources of government revenue, such as sovereign wealth funds.
• US consumer fatigue and concerns about the US economy's slowdown have global implications and can impact market sentiment and economic outlook.

Titles

• Cryptocurrency: A Polarizing Topic with Uncertain Future
• Global Implications: US Consumer Fatigue and Economic Outlook

Sound Bites

• "We've had 10 years of deciding and telling ourselves that Europe is this sort of backwater. We're not Silicon Valley. All we do is regulate."
• "We need to lean into that and flip the narrative to say, where does that give us an advantage? Where does it give us an edge?"
• "A much more streamlined, pan-European kind of legal entity... that investors understand, that founders understand, that capital markets understand and can treat similarly across Europe."

Chapters

00:00 Europe's Innovation Potential

03:45 Addressing Regulatory Challenges

09:43 The Future of Cryptocurrency

13:21 Universal Basic Income

14:47 Funding Public Services in the AI Era

16:53 US Consumer Fatigue and its Global Impact

Summary
In this conversation, Dan, Mads, and Andreas discuss various topics including the current state of the US economy, raising capital internationally, the role of European VCs in tech policy and politics, and the decision for founders to bootstrap or seek venture capital. They highlight the importance of understanding the global economy and its impact on venture capital, the need for more fund of funds and platforms to make venture accessible, and the potential for VCs to be more involved in policy and regulation. They also emphasise that the decision to go VC or bootstrap depends on the level of ambition and the goal of building a lifestyle business or a global category leader.

Keywords
US economy, raising capital, international, European VCs, tech policy, politics, founders, bootstrap, venture capital

Takeaways

• The US economy and its consumer spending have a significant impact on the global economy, making it important for venture capitalists to pay attention to market trends.
• Raising capital internationally can be challenging, with different regions having different preferences and gravitations towards certain investment opportunities.
• There is a need for more fund of funds and platforms to make venture capital more accessible to non-sophisticated LPs and provide diversification.
• European VCs should be more involved in tech policy and politics, as they are at the forefront of shaping the future and can contribute valuable insights.
• The decision for founders to bootstrap or seek venture capital depends on their level of ambition and the goal of building a lifestyle business or a global category leader.

Titles

• The Role of European VCs in Tech Policy and Politics
• The Decision for Founders: Bootstrap or Seek Venture Capital

Sound Bites

• "US consumers will spend less, it'll impact everybody."
• "Markets may not affect us that much in venture, but a US recession would affect the global economy at large."
• "Middle East more difficult to penetrate, Asia has a lot of new money, Europe offers better valuations and investment opportunities."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Setting the Stage

01:27 Navigating Market Volatility and Economic Indicators

06:19 Considerations for Raising Capital Internationally

19:39 VC Involvement in Tech Policy and Politics

28:20 Choosing Between Bootstrapping and Venture Capital

Summary
In this conversation, Mads, Dan and Alex discuss various topics including sports team ownership, freedom of movement, startup work culture, AI regulation, and the state of venture capital. They touch on the investment in Venezia FC, the rejection of the freedom of movement proposal by the UK government, the potential risks and benefits of AI, and the recent increase in startup shutdowns. They also explore the impact of politics on the tech industry and the cyclical nature of venture capital.

Keywords
sports team ownership, freedom of movement, startup work culture, AI regulation, venture capital

Takeaways

• Investing in sports teams can be an exciting opportunity if the business plan and team involved make sense.
• The rejection of the freedom of movement proposal by the UK government is seen as a short-term outlook that may limit talent and investment opportunities.
• AI is viewed as both a potential risk and a transformative technology, with companies increasingly recognizing its impact on their business.
• The debate around AI regulation centers on the balance between innovation and potential risks, with some advocating for awareness-level regulation.
• The increase in startup shutdowns should be viewed in the context of a higher number of companies being started, indicating a healthy level of entrepreneurial activity.
• Venture capital returns have been affected by the cyclical nature of the industry, but patient investors who understand the long-term nature of the business can still succeed.

Sound Bites

• "An investment opportunity sent by Drake's manager"
• "Freedom of movement for young people is a sensible thing"
• "US companies seeing AI as a potential risk"

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Investing Climate 

03:04 Startup Work Culture

06:21 The Potential Risks and Benefits of Artificial Intelligence

16:13 Does Politics Interfere Too Much with Tech?

26:46 The State of the Venture Capital Industry

28:44 The Increase in Startup Shutdowns and the Cyclical Nature of Venture Capital

Dan and Mads discuss various topics including the arrest of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, the debate between big and small venture capital firms, the potential impact of the autumn budget on startups, advancements in cancer treatment, the regulation of AI in Europe, Germany's energy transition, and the concept of agentic workflows in business.

keywords
Pavel Durov, Telegram, arrest, children's security, venture capital, big firms, small firms, autumn budget, startups, SEIS, EIS, cancer treatment, AI, agentic workflows, EU regulation, Germany, energy transition

takeaways

• The arrest of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, raises questions about the responsibility of technology platforms in ensuring security and preventing illegal activities.
• There is a debate between big and small venture capital firms, with some arguing for more $100 million funds to support a wider range of startups, while others advocate for mega funds to tackle big challenges that require significant capital.
• The impact of the autumn budget on startups, particularly in relation to SEIS and EIS, is a concern, and there is speculation about potential changes to wealth tax and capital gains tax.
• Advancements in AI and mRNA technology are driving progress in cancer treatment, with the potential for personalized medicines and significant improvements in survival rates.
• The regulation of AI in Europe, particularly in relation to agentic workflows, raises questions about the balance between regulation and innovation, and the need for businesses to adapt to changing regulatory environments.
• Germany's energy transition is a mix of progress in renewables and challenges in phasing out nuclear energy, raising concerns about the country's seriousness in addressing climate change.
• Agentic workflows, where AI agents within organizations interact and automate functions, are expected to play a significant role in enterprise operations by 2025, enabling more efficient and intelligent workflows.

titles

• The Rise of Agentic Workflows in Business
• The Potential Impact of the Autumn Budget on Startups

Sound Bites

• "Does technology or these kinds of platforms, where does the responsibility start and stop?"
• "The reason that that's the charge has been put forth is it's just so abhorrent that we can't possibly condone such saw there was speculation that he had been invited"

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Technical Difficulties

00:11 The Arrest of Pavel Durov and the Responsibility of Technology Platforms

05:01 The Debate Between Bigger and Smaller VC Firms

09:04 The UK Budget and Its Impact on Startups

15:31 The Development of Cancer Vaccines and Personalized Medicine

19:34 The Regulation of AI in Europe and the Potential for Innovation

22:30 Germany's Economy: Stagnation and Renewable Energy

26:15 Agentic Workflows: Revolutionising Business Processes

In this conversation, Dan and Mads discuss various topics including the SuperSaaS event, the Council of Europe's convention on AI, the central bank digital currency, founder mode, and immigration and the future of AI. They highlight key takeaways such as the importance of relationships in dealing with big corporates, the progress made in living standards over the years, the implications of the AI regulation treaty, the characteristics of successful CEOs in founder mode, and the impact of immigration on economic growth and productivity.

Takeaways

• Building relationships is crucial when dealing with big corporates.
• There has been significant progress in living standards over the years.
• The AI regulation treaty has implications for human rights and democratic values.
• Successful CEOs in founder mode focus on the most important tasks, embrace bad news, and are mission-driven.
• Immigration plays a vital role in economic growth and productivity.
• Productivity-enhancing technology investment will be crucial in the coming decade.

Sound Bites

• "Dealing with big enterprise is always the machine, but actually these guys and girls really value relationships and building relationships."
• "We made incredible progress in living standards, especially since the 50s."
• "The US, EU, and UK have signed the Council of Europe's Convention on AI."

Chapters

00:00 SuperSaaS and Building Relationships with Big Corporates

04:08 The Progress in Living Standards

08:20 Implications of the AI Regulation Treaty

22:21 Characteristics of Successful CEOs in Founder Mode

30:51 The Role of Immigration in Economic Growth

33:18 The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Technology

Keywords

SuperSaaS, Council of Europe, AI regulation, central bank digital currency, founder mode, immigration, future of AI, relationships, living standards, progress, CEO characteristics, economic growth, productivity

In this conversation, Dan, Mads, and Andrew discuss what's happened this week in the European startup ecosystem. The real value of events for investors and founders, highlights from the All In Conference, DeepMind's new AI system for protein design, productivity challenges in the EU, the future of innovation in Europe, and the impact of AI on SaaS. 

* Events can be valuable if approached strategically.
* AI is making significant strides in medical research and drug discovery.
* Fixing EU challenges with productivity and innovation.
* Does politics matter at these conferences? Should we care?
* DeepMind's AI system could revolutionise protein design.
* Klarna ditches SaaS for Ai.  
* The EU's real productivity dilemma

Chapters
00:00 The Value of Events for Investors and Founders
04:40 Insights from the All In Conference
10:18 The Intersection of Politics and Inspiration
13:38 DeepMind's Breakthrough in Protein Research
19:08 Mario Draghi's Vision for European Competitiveness
26:12 The Future of SaaS in the Age of AI

Keywords
events, investment, AI, productivity, Europe, DeepMind, innovation, Klarna, healthcare, technology, investing, VC

Summary
In this episode, Mads, Dan and Monik discuss the dynamics of startup funding, particularly the trend of startups moving from Europe to the US in search of better investment opportunities. They analyse the implications of recent US interest rate cuts on global investments and the challenges faced by the UK government in fostering a conducive environment for startups. The conversation also highlights Germany's new initiative to boost startup investments and the role of the EU Commissioner for Startups in enhancing the European startup ecosystem. Additionally, the hosts explore the importance of identifying economic proxies for startups and the delicate balance between technological innovation and government regulation.

Takeaways
•Why startups moved to the US for funding.
•How US interest rate cuts will stimulate global investment.
•UK government faces significant challenges in economic growth.
•Germany's WIN initiative aims to invest heavily in startups.
•The EU's new Commissioner for Startups could drive innovation.
•Economic proxies can indicate the health of startup ecosystems.
•AI regulation poses risks to innovation in Europe.
•Collaboration between government and startups is essential.
•Investment in technology is crucial for economic prosperity.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Startup Funding Dynamics
02:58 The Shift of Startups from Europe to the US
05:59 Impact of US Interest Rate Cuts on Global Investments
09:51 UK's Economic Challenges and Government's Role
15:04 Germany's Initiative to Boost Startup Investments
19:00 The Role of the EU Commissioner for Startups
24:11 Proxies for Economic Health in Startup Ecosystems
30:09 The Balance Between Technology and Government Regulation

Summary
Dan and Mads discuss Europe's energy challenges, the need for more positive leadership, the future of remote work, the transformative impact of AI on society, and insights from the Foundations paper regarding the stagnation of the UK economy. They explore the implications of these themes on the future of technology, infrastructure, and economic growth.

Takeaways
Europe faces significant energy challenges to support AI growth.
Positive leadership is crucial for business morale and investment.
The return to office mandates - a step backwards or forwards.
AI is set to revolutionise err, everything.
The UK's complicated planning stifles investment.
Infrastructure projects in the UK are significantly more expensive than peers.
Real wage growth in the UK has been stagnant for years.
The Foundations paper highlights systemic issues in the UK economy.
Historical examples show that the UK can recover from economic downturns.
Optimism and strategic planning are essential for future growth.

Sound Bites
"How will Europe power the next wave of AI?"
"We need a positive message from our leaders."
"Is Amazon's return to office a step backwards?"

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Overview of Topics
01:07 Energy Challenges in Europe: The Case of Three Mile Island
05:17 Positivity and Energy in the UK: A Call for Optimism
07:53 Amazon's Return to Office Policy: A Step Forward or Backward?
09:57 Chip Manufacturing in the UAE: Samsung and TSMC's Plans
11:52 The Future of AI: Predictions for 2030
16:34 Telegram's Concessions: Implications for Messaging Platforms
17:36 Meta's Orion Glasses: The Future of Human Connectivity?
23:16 Foundations Paper: Understanding the UK's Economic Stagnation
29:27 Unlocking Growth: The Path Forward for the UK

Keywords
energy, AI, leadership, remote work, UK economy, nuclear power, positivity, technology, infrastructure, productivity

In this conversation, the hosts discuss a range of topics including the recent Nobel Prizes awarded for AI innovations, the regulatory challenges facing Google, the economic situation in the UK, and the future of venture capital. They explore the implications of the Regulatory Innovation Office in the UK, the appetite of Limited Partners (LPs) for investing in venture capital, and the significance of ownership and location for European startups. The discussion highlights both the challenges and opportunities within the current landscape, emphasising the need for careful handling of emerging technologies and regulatory frameworks.

Takeaways
• Nobel Prizes awarded for AI innovations highlight the importance of technology in medicine and environmental issues.
• AI technologies are fundamental to the current industrial revolution but require careful regulation.
• The DOJ's move to break up Google may be ironic as the company faces more competition than ever.
• UK borrowing costs are rising, raising concerns about the impact on startups and the venture scene.
• The Regulatory Innovation Office aims to streamline approvals for new technologies, but its effectiveness remains to be seen.
• LPs are currently cautious about investing in venture capital, with a notable decline in interest in first-time managers.
• There are pockets of renewed interest from family offices looking to invest in emerging managers.
• European startups are increasingly raising significant capital, indicating a growing talent pool.
• Ownership and location are becoming less rigid as companies seek funding across borders.
• Despite challenges, the overall sentiment is that European venture is progressing positively.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the European VC Podcast
01:47 Nobel Prizes and AI Innovations
03:23 Regulatory Challenges and Market Dynamics
05:34 The Future of Google and Antitrust Issues
10:53 UK Economic Challenges and Startup Impact
19:06 Regulatory Innovation and Its Implications
22:34 LPs and the Future of Venture Capital
31:25 Ownership, Location, and European Startups

In this conversation, Dan and Mads explore the current state of European venture capital, who cares about climate change? insights from the UK International Investment Summit, public sector investment could cost us nothing, and make us everything, Trumps trolls in the polls, EU Inc Petition - any teeth? SpaceX caught a thing - so what, liquidity is everything in VC. 

Takeaways
• UK based VCs are on track to raise over £12bn this year - more than 2021.
• Corporates bow out of COP29 - virtue signalling over?
• Investment in climate tech is projected to drop by 20% in 2024.
• The UK International Investment Summit - meaningful outcomes?
• Public sector investment can potentially cost nothing & create everything.
• The EU project - is it over?
• The EU Inc petition - any teeth?
• SpaceX's caught a thing, so what?
• Venture capital is experiencing a lack of exits = no liquidity - now what?
• Trump and trolls in the polls
• The answer to strategic investment that will really drive growth.

Chapters
00:00 European Venture Capital Landscape
07:03 Climate Change and Corporate Responsibility
12:01 UK International Investment Summit Insights
17:04 Public Sector Investment and Economic Growth
24:39 The Future of the European Project - Is the EU dead?
28:59 EU Inc Petition - any teeth?
31:12 SpaceX caught at thing - so what?
37:31 Venture Capital and liquidity - where is it coming from?

Keywords
European venture capital, climate change, UK investment, public sector investment, EU project, startup ecosystem, SpaceX, venture capital challenges

In this conversation Dan and Mads explore crazy hAIpe valuations at Perplexity, Claude controlling the desktop in Enterprise - but RPA is nothing new, Palantir, the NHS and patient records? Is everyone becoming a media company? American markets will chill the growth now, what will a Trump administration really mean for the economy? And more...

Chapters
00:00 AI Valuations are Going to be hAIpe. Right?
01:58 AI in RPA in the Enterprise - I won't close the podbay doors Dave.
03:45 NHS Digital Records, Palentir, any Opportunities for Startups?
07:24 NHS Technology (failed) Implementations
10:09 The Future of Workforce and AI Integration
12:59 The Content Economy - is Everyone Becoming a Media Business?
15:47 Europe's Innovation Gap Again - Will Draghi win out?
18:38 AI's is the Only Way to Grow (Within the Resources we Have)
21:43 What Will a Trump Admin Really Mean for the Economy?
24:28 The Future is a Gift

In this conversation we dig into the UK's Autumn Budget - it's just *not* investor or build friendly - gah, Germany launches more non-profits, will ARM enter the AI arms race *against* it's own customers?!... and yet *more* regulation - this time in the beautiful game, but why that matters.

Chapters
00:00 Juvenile Politics
00:27 UK Autumn Budget: Invest Invest Invest! Ok, don't then.
04:22 Economic Growth Needs the Right Frameworks
08:12 The Future of Startups in an AI-Driven World
13:09 ARM vs Nvidia: Arm Getting in the Arms Race?
21:40 Volkswagen's quality problems
25:27 Football Regulation. Hang on. I thought you said less regulation?

In this conversation, Dan and Mads discuss what Trump will and won't do now he's in. IS CHIPS out? As Europe's CHIPS is in? UK's investment woes with such little support from Govt. Warren Buffett cashes out - Apple now. Is the market over priced? GS thinks so. AI disrupting big tech gets bigger. Founder burnout is back, bigger and badder so what role should venture capitalists play?

Full contents

• Drama drama - The 2024 election will have significant implications, for all.
• Trump's policies will open the M&A landscape.
• The CHIPS Act - Will he really repeal it?
• Europe's semiconductor strategy vs the U.S.
• Will the UK government finaaalllly get round to prioritising investment? 
• Warren Buffett's cash out hits $325bn 
• The AI race is poking Google in the eye, again.
• Startup founder burnout goes big 
• Building a VC backed startup is, just, brutal. Know the beast.

This week in European VC - Dan and Mads explore the real revenue generated by AI startups, not hAIpy at all, no one went to COP29, the EU startup passport is arriving much sooner than anticipated, Germany's instability as an opportunity, AI is programming, insights from a recent MIT report on material science, and the global and local economic ramifications of Trump's administration. 

The average time for an AI startup to hit $1M in revenue is 11 months.
COP29 has seen a lack of attendance from major world leaders.
The EU startup passport aims to simplify regulations for startups.
Germany's government collapse could lead to more European reforms.
AI is 25% of coding at Google.
It's proven - AI significantly enhances productivity in material science.
Trump's election results. His focus on economic issues won over identity politics.
Increased M&A activity in 2025. Bitcoin up. IPOs up. Climate and humans be damned.
Startups will find new opportunities in this changing global landscape.

Chapters
00:00 AI Startups: Real Revenue vs Hype
05:47 EU Startup Passport: A New Era for Entrepreneurs
11:17 AI in Code: The Future of Software Development
17:04 Trump's Election: Implications for Global Economy
22:32 Opportunities and Challenges for European Startups

Show Notes and links

Dan - AI start-ups generate money faster than past hyped tech companies - 
https://www.ft.com/content/a9a192e3-bfbc-461e-a4f3-112e63d0bb33 

Average time  for an AI company to hit $1m is 11 months. SaaS is 15.

Cursor grew from $4M ARR to $4M/month in less than 12 months. AI is not just hAIpe - https://www.arr.club/signal/cursor-arr-at-50m-growing-crazy-from-4m-in-april 

AI vs SaaS Growth: AI start-ups reaching $30 million in annual revenue do so in about 20 months, five times faster than earlier SaaS firms.

Global Demand: Roughly 56% of AI companies’ revenue comes from international markets, with substantial purchases in regions like Singapore and Iceland.

Notable Examples: OpenAI, ElevenLabs, and DeepL are examples of successful AI companies. OpenAI’s ChatGPT became the fastest-growing consumer app, generating $3.6 billion in annual revenue despite high operational costs.

COP29 - none of the big wigs are there - Forty-eight fewer heads of state are addressing COP29 than last year. Xi Jinping and Joe Biden—presidents of the two biggest oil-producing countries - won’t be there. Russia not there. What will this mean for startups?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/cop29-negotiators-agree-on-some-rules-for-global-carbon-market?sref=KkPzpZvz&srnd=homepage-americas

New UK target for 81% emissions cut by 2035 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2ny8zndpxo

The new EU Startup passport
Announced by Ursula von der Leyen - EU Commission President

German Government has collapsed
Scholz calling for new elections

AI Now Writes Over 25% of Code at Google - 
https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/155094/ai-now-writes-over-25-of-code-at-google

Google Confirms Jarvis AI Is Real by Accidentally Leaking It - 
https://gizmodo.com/google-confirms-jarvis-ai-is-real-by-accidentally-leaking-it-2000521089?

Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation* by Aidan Toner-Rodgers† at MIT
https://aidantr.github.io/files/AI_innovation.pdf

- AI automates 57% of idea-generation tasks, allowing scientists to focus on evaluating AI-suggested compounds.
- It reduces repetitive, low-value research directions.
- AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, leading to a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in product prototypes that incorporate these materials.

Trump globally. Trump administration to the UK and Europe - what next?

Summary
Dan and Mads discuss key developments in European venture capital, focusing on the recent Slush event, the implications of Bitcoin hitting $100k, Anthropic raising $4bn, the volatility of Bitcoin - what is it and what will it become, Klarna's US IPO, does Europe need it's own search engine? Are we at peak AI?

Takeaways
Slush is great, founders focused, 13,000 attendees.
Bitcoin to hit $100k? But it's what? And is it good for us?
Anthropic raises $4bn but are we at peak AI?
Klarna - Europe's exceptional founders have nowhere to go but the US
Revolut gets its UK license and is after you mr big bank.
Does Europe need its own search engine? Howabout no.

Chapters
00:00 Insights from Slush: A Major European VC Event
09:00 The Future of Bitcoin and Government Regulation
16:06 Challenges in AI Development and Data Limitations
22:54 Local vs Global Search Engines: A European Perspective

1st Dec 2024 - This week in Euro VC.

Super happy to have Lomax from outsized.vc with us today bringing an extra edge of health tech. 

Dan shares his experiences with nekohealth.com full body scanning. 

What's the future of preventative scanning, when will it be NHS ready and what opportunities are there for startups.

ChatGPT is 2! How OpenAI stole the march on Google, who invented the transformer.

LLMs - what's next and from whom.

Northolt. Gah. Into administration she goes - $21bn spent but is it all lost?

Recursion and ExScientia - how they bowed out stage right with a whimper.

Are psychedelics back? Will RFK open European doors?

Cradle Bio - Boom! Massive series B - bring on Europe!

We're in a studio this week, sounding joojie. Mads and I discussing this week's news, views and thoughts around Europe, startup, and investing. What's moving the needle, what's not, and why.

The Decline of Europe’s Automotive Industry
◦ The shift from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs).
◦ Why Chinese automakers are dominating global markets.
◦ Can Europe recover, or is the industry destined for slow decline?

Trillion-Dollar Companies: Can Europe Compete?
◦ Why Europe has yet to produce a trillion-dollar company.
◦ Strategic importance of big tech companies for economic growth and national influence.
◦ Key sectors that could drive Europe's first trillion-dollar success: biopharma, quantum technology, and energy.

China vs. the US: The Resource War
◦ The implications of China restricting exports of critical metals like gallium and germanium.
◦ How this trade war impacts Europe and global supply chains.
◦ The importance of resource independence and domestic production.

The AI Cage Match: Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman
◦ The history of OpenAI, its pivot to a for-profit model, and Musk’s fallout.
◦ The rise of XAI and the battle for AI supremacy.
◦ Will Nvidia face real competition in the AI chip market?

Founder Corner: The Psychology of Founders
◦Insights into founder breakups and the challenges of building a startup.
◦How Europe’s culture of risk aversion may hinder innovation.
◦The importance of supporting founders to build resilient, long-term businesses.

Bitcoin and Morality
◦A heated debate about the ethics of Bitcoin and its role in the economy.
◦Speculation, regulation, and the future of cryptocurrencies.
◦Does Bitcoin represent humanity’s worst impulses, or is it a driver of innovation?

Mads and I chatting this week about all things VC, investing, startup affecting Europe,

• Can the UK govt really think like a startup? Should it?
• The British DOGE.
• No one in the Labour govt has ever run a business. Matter?
• Why China's downturn will batter Europe.
• The European brain drain - is it real?
• Freedom of movement, is it coming back?
• Quantum is here, or is it.
• The old guards are coming out to solve Quantum.
• Can startups survive red ocean? If so how?
• Execution vs Novel.
• European startup of the week - Stegra.
• Why green steel is so important.

In this episode we review significant events of 2024, focusing on the rise of AI, the challenges Europe faces in building its own AI infrastructure, and the political and economic landscape shaped by the recent elections. We chat venture capital trends, the impact of geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, and the future of TikTok amid national security concerns. 

• Altman and Musk face off while Elon builds Colossus.
• The AI war heats up in big tech 
• Is Labour competent enough to build business in Britain?
• Should Europe build chips?
• The Bitcoin Act.
• Will Trump Switch us off?
• The Trump sugar high. Coming to Europe?
• Will TikTok go down to Chinatown?
• More M&A means more business, recycling, investment
• Agentic workflows to impact the Enterprise
• More IPOs in 2025.
• The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East & implications for us all.
• 2024 inc VC was volatile but performed well. How?

00:00 2024: The Year of AI Ascendancy - Musk builds Colossus.
05:48 Europe's AI Infrastructure Challenge
12:12 Political Landscape and Economic Predictions
18:03 Venture Capital Trends in 2024
24:02 Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle East
29:58 The Future of TikTok and National Security
35:58 Looking Ahead: Startups and IPOs in 2025

Overview: In this episode of Upside, hosts Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen, along with guests Andrew Scott and Lomax Ward, delve into their 8 bold predictions for 2025. 

Covering everything from AI and space tech to geopolitical tensions and venture capital trends, they unpack what’s on the horizon for tech, business, and venture in Europe and beyond.

2025 Predictions and Discussions:

1. Apple will win AI
2. Open AI will be dethroned 
3. Conflict with China
4. Defence Tech will boom
5. EU and UK will wake up and focus sovereign control on AI, Quantum and Space  
6. Space tech will really lift off 
7. US heads into recession 
8. M&A up IPOs up

00:00 Introduction to Upside and the Future of AI
02:46 Apple's Potential win in Consumer AI
06:11 OpenAI dethroned? Leadership and Future Challenges
11:49 China, geopolitical Implications of AI and Defence
23:52 Defence Tech Investment will boom
31:17 Hardware isn't always bad for VCs
32:14 UK and EU Sovereign Control and Technological Progress in 2025
33:39 The Importance of AI, Quantum Computing and Space to Europe
35:36 Space Tech really lifts off in 2025
38:26 Space Manufacturing and 'Why' Exploration
42:17 Timings and Market Predictions
51:33 The State of European Venture Capital
54:26 VC and the Role of Technology in Economic Growth
57:15 M&A and IPO Predictions for 2025

Key Topics Discussed:

Apple’s AI Strategy
Dan predicts Apple will dominate consumer AI by leveraging its ecosystem, resources, and loyal fan base. Mads questions whether Apple has lost its innovation edge and explores what "winning" consumer AI means.

OpenAI's Future
OpenAI faces challenges as competitors like Google, Anthropic, and XAI push forward. The panel discusses leadership struggles, funding needs, and the possibility of new technologies dethroning OpenAI.

Geopolitics and Defence
The impact of China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the West’s response. Defence tech as a booming sector, with increased NATO spending and opportunities in dual-use technologies.

Space Tech Expansion
Investment in space technologies continues, focusing on communication, defence, and manufacturing. The challenges of scaling space ventures and predictions for a more affordable and accessible space economy.

Economic Outlook for 2025
US economic trends point to a possible mild recession, while Europe faces stagnation due to political and economic challenges. Insights into concentrated stock markets, corporate performance, and venture investment trends.

M&A and IPO Resurgence
Pent-up demand for M&A deals and a likely reopening of the IPO market in 2025, with companies like Klarna leading the charge.

The European Venture Landscape
Challenges in scaling European startups and the need for founders to integrate US business DNA early. Calls for greater ambition to build trillion-dollar companies and reinvigorate Europe’s industrial base.

Memorable Quotes:

Dan Bowyer: “Apple’s ecosystem gives it a fighting chance to become the de facto standard for consumer AI.”

Mads Jensen: “Europe needs to back great founders and rebuild its industrial base.”

Andrew Scott: “Space tech is the future, but timing is everything. A lot of startups will fail before the sector truly takes off.”

Closing Thoughts:
The panel concludes with their personal focus areas for 2025, emphasising a love for early-stage European founders, the need for industrial reinvention, and how we can push boundaries in venture capital.

In this insightful episode, Dan, Mads, and Lomax tackle some of the most pressing topics in tech, venture capital, and global business, diving into issues like Europe's chip dependency, the evolving role of AI in VC, the future of social media moderation, and the rising stars in the European startup scene.

Europe’s Semiconductor Struggles
The problem: Europe's lag in semiconductor production compared to global competitors like the US and China. 
Key insights: Germany's halted Intel plant and Europe’s high energy costs exacerbate its strategic vulnerability. Lack of coordinated funding—only €4 billion from Brussels compared to $142 billion in China.

The Role of AI in Venture Capital
Future of VC: Will AI become a co-pilot, augmenting human decision-making, or could we see fully automated "Quant VC"? 
Predictions: AI can streamline processes like sourcing and due diligence. Human interaction remains crucial for founder evaluation and post-investment support.

Social Media, Free Speech, and Moderation
Meta’s Shift: Meta moves away from fact-checking in favour of community notes in the US but not the EU due to stricter regulations. Broader themes: The challenges of moderating social platforms in a way that balances free speech with preventing harm.

European Startups and Unicorns
Positive trends: Europe saw 13 new unicorns in 2024, doubling from the previous year. Highlights include: Diverse representation: Companies from across sectors and countries. Notable names: Kraken (Octopus Energy's SaaS platform) and Bending Spoons (creative suite apps). 

Government’s Role in Venture Capital
Debate: Should government funding for startups taper off as private markets mature? Key takeaways: Europe needs institutional capital to match the US. Government initiatives like the British Business Bank’s Enterprise Capital Fund have shown positive results. 

NVIDIA and the Future of Computing
Jensen Huang’s unveiling of Digits, a $3,000 AI supercomputer for developers. 
Discussion on Moore’s Law breaking down and NVIDIA’s innovative approach to integrated computing systems.

Closing Thoughts
The evolving tech and VC landscape demands adaptability from all players. 
Europe must focus on creating favourable conditions for founders to build globally competitive startups. Excitement for 2025 as AI and foundational tech continue to reshape industries.

With Hosts
Dan: The optimist, ready to embrace AI's potential in VC.  
Lomax: The realist, emphasising the importance of human connection and strategy.  
Mads: The strategist, diving deep into the broader implications of industry trends.  

00:00 Introduction and Podcast Overview
06:13 Intel's Challenges and European Dependency
12:01 The Evolution of Free Speech on Social Media
18:05 Anthropic's Growth and Valuation in AI
32:26 The Future of Open Source and AI Funding
39:36 Government's Role in Venture Capital
53:56 Success Stories in the UK Startup Scene

Tune in next week for more insights into the world of tech, startups, and European venture capital! 

In this episode, we dive into the future of London's IPO pipeline, the UK's ambitious AI opportunities action plan, and Colossal Biosciences' fascinating mission to resurrect extinct species like the woolly mammoth. We also explore the role of white hydrogen as a potential energy frontier and discuss Europe's rising share in global tech value. From market insights to groundbreaking technologies, this episode has something for everyone.

Key Topics

London’s IPO Revival

• 2024 marked the worst year for London IPOs, even below 2009 levels.
• Analysing the pipeline for 2025, featuring companies like Shein, Starling Bank, Zopa, and Ebury.
• Challenges: Lack of startups scaling to IPO status and low appetite for equities among pension investors.
• Historical context: 136 IPOs in 2014 vs. 6 in 2024.

The UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan

• Highlights of the government’s action plan for AI growth.
• Focus on scaling pilots nationally and creating datasets leveraging institutions like the BBC for data.
• Challenges: Addressing copyright rules, data funding, and fostering founder-friendly ecosystems.
• Insight on talent, funding, and tax hurdles.

Company of the Week: Colossal Biosciences

• The mission to bring back the woolly mammoth, Tasmanian tiger, and dodo bird using CRISPR gene-editing technology.
• Ethical and practical questions surrounding de-extinction and re-wilding.
• Implications for biodiversity and conservation.

A New Energy Frontier? White Hydrogen

• Could this be the next renewables frontier for startups?
• Exploring naturally occurring, renewable white hydrogen as a power source.
• Challenges in storage, transportation, and extraction.
• Potential game-changer in the global energy mix if scalable solutions emerge.

European Tech Growth

• Europe’s increasing share of global tech value, now at 18-19%. Up from 5% three decades ago.
• Insights from CEO Yoram Wijngaarde and Dealroom’s data on tech enterprise value creation since the 1990s.

Keywords
IPOs, London, AI Opportunities, Venture Capital, Regulatory Challenges, Tech Ecosystem, Government Policy, Investment, Infrastructure, Innovation, economic challenges, woolly mammoth, hydrogen energy, energy innovations, European tech, deep tech investment, political impact on technology

AI Summary
In this conversation, Dan, Mads and Andrew discuss the current state of IPOs in London, the challenges and opportunities within the regulatory framework, and the ambitious AI Opportunities Action Plan led by Keir Starmer. They emphasise the importance of government support, access to talent, and the need for a robust infrastructure to foster innovation in the UK tech ecosystem. The discussion highlights the necessity for policy changes to attract founders and investment, ultimately aiming to position the UK as a leader in AI and technology. In this conversation, the speakers discuss various innovative solutions to economic challenges, including the Mansion House compact and the need for a talent magnet in the UK. They explore the exciting yet controversial project of reviving extinct species like the woolly mammoth through gene editing. The discussion shifts to the potential of hydrogen as a clean energy source, addressing its challenges and the need for strategic investment in energy. The speakers also highlight the growing tech landscape in Europe and the importance of deep tech investment, while reflecting on the political changes that may impact technology and innovation.

This week Dan, Lomax, and Ferdinand discuss European startup investing, focusing on the impact of AI, job cuts at Meta and what that really means, commercial changes at the head of the UK competition regulator, airport expansions mean what and for whom exactly, plus a meaningful M&A uplift in activity.

How can we not talk about Trump's first few days and knock on policies for our European landscape, the implications of Doge and the Trump Coin grift. They discuss the Stargate AI project which is just massive - if it comes off, and the innovative healthcare startup Neko.

On the show...

OpenAI Launches 'Operator'
Operator: First full-control AI agent. The Browser within the browser with full 'agent' control. Accessible only via Pro plan ($200/month). Initially US-based; European launch delayed per OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Potential to redefine AI agents—parallels drawn with Apple’s strategic moves.

Meta Cuts 5% Workforce (3,600 Jobs)
Debate: Necessary efficiency or signs of struggle in boom times? Looks like just an AI push. Or hiding DEI and sustainability push out? The implications for AI-driven workforce restructuring are happening right now.

UK’s CMA Leadership Shakeup
New Chair: Doug Gurr (ex-Amazon). Shift from consumer protection to economic growth focus. Goal: Accelerating UK commerce. Red tape cut? Let's see.

Heathrow Expansion Resurfaces
Ministers endorse a third runway proposal. Estimated economic boost: £47bn–£143bn by 2060, with 27k new jobs. Controversies around environmental and regional impact.

European M&A Activity Rebounds
H1 2024 deal value up 31% YoY (€439 billion). Venture capital-backed M&A sees 46% growth in Q4 2024. Future outlook tied to IPO resurgence and eased regulations.

Trump’s First Days
Executive Orders galore, Biden’s rescinded. Threats of tariffs, and owning Canada. Tax breaks for US-built goods. What are the global implications and for the UK and EU economies.

DOGE(Y)
Looks bipartisan and who doesn't want more efficiency in govt? Targets $2 trillion savings by 2036 — ambitious or unachievable? And where's Vivek?

Stargate AI Project
$500 billion US investment in AI infrastructure/data centres (Texas). Partnering with Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, SoftBank, Arm. But exclusively serving OpenAI? No wonder Elon is fizzing.

Company of the Week: Neko the health scanning startup from Daniel Ek.
Series B closed another $260mn. Dan thinks the future of healthcare.

00:00 Introduction to European Startup Investing
02:54 Exploring AI Agents and Their Impact
05:59 Meta's Job Cuts and AI Efficiency
08:56 UK Competition Regulator Changes
11:56 Airport Expansion and Economic Growth
14:59 M&A Activity in Europe
18:11 The Influence of Trump's Policies on Europe
29:51 Bipartisan Efforts and Government Efficiency
31:39 Geopolitical Context and Market Confidence
33:42 Doge and Economic Implications
36:16 The Rise of Trump Coin
40:11 Stargate AI Project: A New Era
47:55 Neko's Series B and the Future of Healthcare

Hosts: Dan, Andrew, Mads and Lomax

The Future of Defence in Europe - Show tRump the monnaayyyy
- NATO defence spending push: Lithuania and Estonia commit to Trump's 5% target.
- Europe's over-reliance on US defence infrastructure – time to build independent capabilities?
- Startups and venture capital in defence: The next big opportunity?
- Should Europe follow the US model of defence tech innovation? Can it go private?

UK's Wonky Economic Growth Strategy
- Rachel Reeves' "turbocharging growth" plan – is it more rhetoric than reality?
- The role of the National Wealth Fund and the Office for Investment in boosting UK infrastructure.
- The Heathrow third runway debate – long overdue, too far away, or plane misguided?
- Unlocking UK pension funds for investment – real impact or just political showmanship?
- How the UK can actually foster innovation and become the "next Silicon Valley." Oxford <> Cambridge Arc.

Europe's AI and Investment Updates - Is Quantum back?!
- OpenAI launching ChatGPT Gov: What does this mean for government AI adoption?
- Apple’s position in the AI race – overlooked but strategically poised?
- 11Labs raising $250M at a $3B valuation – Europe's AI voice technology rising.
- Quantum computing’s resurgence: Alice & Bob, Quantinuum IPOs, and Europe's role.

The DeepSeek Disruption - The numbers just don't add up
- China's DeepSeek AI model making waves – is it a game-changer or just a media frenzy?
- Claims of IP infringement vs. technological innovation – how much did they really borrow? The 'distillation' woogabooga
- The efficiency leap: What cost $5 billion for OpenAI cost DeepSeek only $5 million?
- The geopolitical impact: US-China tech war escalates, export restrictions, and AI as a national security concern.
- What this means for European AI: Why wasn’t a European company leading the charge?

The Rise of Political Discontent - Young'uns want us to be like China
- 52% of Gen Z in the UK favouring dictatorship – a reflection of frustration or a dangerous trend?
- Elon Musk’s AFD rally appearance in Germany – should we be worried?
- The broader implications of political shifts on global investment and innovation.

The team close reflecting on the balance of optimism vs. realism in European tech and investment. What they're up to this week and to be more.... Merrricaan!

Thanks for tuning in! See you next week.

06:00 The Role of Startups in Defence
12:00 Pension Reforms and Investment Opportunities
18:10 AI and Innovation in Government Spending
38:24 The Urgency of AI Implementation
46:12 The Implications of DeepSeek's Innovations
57:10 Funding Trends in European AI Startups
01:02:32 Gen Z's Political Sentiments and Future Outlook

In this episode, Dan, Lomax, and Mads dive into a packed agenda spanning tech earnings, European venture dynamics, government policies on AI and nuclear energy, and the debate over whether Europe—or the UK—could (or should) define its own version of the “American Dream.” Mads shares insights from his recent visit to Number 10 Downing Street to discuss the UK’s AI strategy, and Lomax highlights a series of notable European health tech deals.

Welcome & Introductions
• Dan kicks things off with a check-in on what’s happening in Lisbon, London, and beyond.
• Lomax is monitoring global political drama (particularly in the U.S. and Europe).
• Mads teases big announcements out of Number 10 regarding AI.

Tech Earnings & Market Sentiment
• Palantir reports bullish earnings; stock jumps ~24%.
• Google’s cloud growth disappoints vs. analyst expectations; capital expenditures on the rise.
• AMD and ARM under the spotlight—concerns over data centre growth.
• ASML and Spotify highlight strong European tech performance.
• January inflows into European stocks reach 25-year highs, briefly outpacing US markets.

Cherry Ventures’ $500M Raise & Europe’s VC Landscape
• Cherry Ventures closes its fifth fund, demonstrating how larger European VCs continue to mature.
• Discussion on the overall trend: Big name funds attracting more capital, mirroring the U.S. “flight to quality.”

German Elections & Political Shifts
• The rise of the far-right AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) in the polls.
• Potential implications for tech talent and immigration policy.
• Broader context of populism in Europe and the struggle for pro-tech growth policies.

The UK’s Nuclear Push
• New moves to accelerate nuclear power plant approvals and the pivot to small, safe reactors.
• How nuclear energy ties in with AI (data centres needing massive, stable power sources).
• Debate over planning red tape vs. the urgency to bolster UK’s energy security and cut costs.

The Number 10 AI Plan (Mads’ Visit)
• Mads shares first-hand insights from meeting with UK government officials, including Keir Starmer.
• Adoption of Matt Clifford’s 50-point AI plan and the promise of government as an “early customer.”
• The challenge of scaling AI talent in a post-Brexit environment—and how to attract global talent.
• Pension reform, government procurement, and the push for overall efficiency gains in the public sector.

Is Europe Just an “Incubator” for the US?
• Analysis of new research suggesting fewer startups relocate to the US than expected—but those that do raise 3x more capital.
• Role of large European funds in combating early acquisitions and supporting founders to scale.
• The example of ARM and its journey from European tech champion to global powerhouse.

Trump’s Proposed US Sovereign Wealth Fund
• Contrasting with Norway’s $1.5 trillion Government Pension Fund Global and Singapore’s GIC.
• Questions around how a country with high debt (like the US) might run a sovereign wealth fund.
• Potential lessons for European nations and the risks of politicising large capital pools.

Deals of the Week
• Health Tech Highlights:
◦UK cancer detection startup See the Signs secures seed funding led by Khosla.
◦ IVF funding platform Gaia raises a strong Series A.
◦ Spanish AI imaging startup Cuban nabs a $50M Series A.
• ARM & Ampere rumour: possible acquisition to expand ARM from IP licensing into actual chip manufacturing for data centres.

Looking Ahead
• Mads: Speaking at local schools on entrepreneurship, then multiple board meetings.
• Lomax: Closing an investment in a space-tech company and working on a significant Series B funding.
• Dan: Potential trip to Finland to explore a diagnostics startup focusing

Upside #29 - Le Summit, Le Chat, Le $100bn

LP Blind Spots
LP in Asia with 3000 managers but only 3 in Europe—why?
European VC viewed as a "blind spot" by many investors in Asia and the US.
The need for European investors to bridge the perception gap.

Deep Dive: The France AI Summit
Focus on "Inclusive and Sustainable AI."
100 countries in attendance, 61 signed the agreement—but UK and US did not.
Discussion around ethics, accessibility, and the role of global AI governance.
JD Vance’s speech highlighted US dominance and reluctance to align with EU directives.
Debate: Was it the right call for the UK not to sign?

EU’s €50B AI Investment
US announced $500B AI initiative; France followed with €109B.
Comparison between Macron's AI plan, UK AI strategy, and Bidenomics.
The importance of aligning private investment with government funding.

Mistral’s ‘Le Chat’ AI Model
French AI company Mistral launched "Le Chat."
Designed for speed but criticised for lacking depth and innovation.
Open-source AI as Europe's potential advantage in the global AI race.

AI Corner
GPT-4.5 expected within weeks, the last non-chain-of-thought model.
Grok 3 by XAI (Elon Musk) in development, set to challenge OpenAI’s dominance.
Open-source AI progress making Europe a contender in the AI space.

Interest Rates and UK Economic Outlook
Bank of England’s 25 bps rate cut—will it impact startups and investments?
UK growth forecast halved to 0.75%.
Concerns about stagflation, job losses, and productivity decline.
Can AI be the key to unlocking efficiency in government services?

AstraZeneca Vaccine Plant Withdrawal
UK government cut state aid from £90M to £40M.
AstraZeneca chose to invest elsewhere. Ble.
A significant loss for Liverpool’s economy and UK biotech sector.

Deal of the Week
Tines (Ireland) raises $125M Series C, becoming a unicorn.

Final Thoughts
Optimism about UK and European innovation despite economic hurdles.
Encouraging bold policy decisions and strategic AI investments.
"Let's start doing."

In this episode of Upside, hosts Dan and Mads from SuperSeed are joined by Ben Prade, Partner at GP Bullhound. Topics covered:

State of European Venture Capital 
Geopolitics & VC - the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance, European autonomy in defence and tech, China filling the void

VC Fundraising & LPs
AI and defence are hot baby! Shift from US pension to government cash, VCs must engage in ecosystem building, economic policies influencing VC strategies.

The Future of European VC 
European VC has outperformed the US in IRR (20.8% vs 18.2%) over the last decade. We're nailing AI, Fusion and Quantum.

Quantum: Hype vs Reality
Microsoft's Majorana 1 Quantum Chip, cautious optimism, power PR and viable quantum computing by 2030.

Grok 3 
Grok 3 is out, speed and benchmarks vs Claude and GPT 4.5.

Fusion
France’s CEA West Tokamak reactor sets a new record with 22 minutes of continuous fusion, limitless clean energy, realistic timelines for commercial fusion.

Startup Funding Dynamics - Go big early?
Peter Walker’s Carta report:
Theory 1: AI reduces startup costs, meaning less = more.
Theory 2: AI increases competition, making capital more crucial for scaling.
= Seed Strapping

Asteroid Mining 
Spotlight on Karman Plus, autonomous asteroid mining. Government funding in space.

Euro Grind, Google Grind, and Startup Hustle.

As normal we dig behind the headlines to discuss the real stories affecting European venture. With Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Andrew Scott and Karin Nielsen.

The State of European Tech vs. the U.S.

• Karin’s reflections on her trip to San Francisco and the stark contrast in optimism between the U.S. and the UK.
• The resurgence of hustle culture in the U.S. and what Europe can learn from it.

Funding Gaps & European Venture Trends

• Stripe’s annual letter highlights European productivity challenges and regulatory barriers.
• The need for European capital market reforms to boost startup funding.
• Discussion on whether Europe should adopt a ‘Buy European’ strategy.

AI Advancements & Enterprise Adoption

• The launch of Claude 3.7 by Anthropic and GPT-4.5 by OpenAI: Are these models delivering real breakthroughs?
• China’s AI strategy and the impact of DeepSeek’s pricing strategy on global AI competition.
• The challenges enterprises face in adopting AI, from legacy systems to regulatory concerns.

The Future of Work & The ‘Grind’ Debate

• Sergey Brin’s push to bring Googlers back to the office: Should startups embrace remote work or office culture?
• The debate over whether European startups work hard enough and whether remote work fosters or hinders hustle.
• Insights from Karin on how remote-first startups can thrive with the right culture and tools.

AI’s Impact on Venture Capital

• Will AI-driven deal sourcing make VCs obsolete, or will brand and relationships matter more than ever?
• The shift towards hyper-personalised outreach and the rise of X (formerly Twitter) as a key VC-founder networking tool.
• Why AI-powered investing will still require human intuition to identify outlier founders.

Deal of the Week: Lovable

• The meteoric rise of Lovable, Europe’s fastest-growing startup.
• From launch to $17M ARR in 18 months: What’s behind its explosive growth?
• The future of AI-powered no-code solutions and their impact on SaaS.

Upside Podcast: Defence, Health Tech & The Future of European Venture

This week on Upside, Dan Bowyer (SuperSeed VC) is joined by Lomax (Outsized) and Peter Ward (Humanity) to dive into two major themes dominating European venture: defence and health tech. With Mads away running up hills in Spain with fellow VCs and LPs, the trio take a no-holds-barred approach to dissecting the latest developments shaping investment, technology, and geopolitics.

1. Welcome & Introductions (00:12)

2. Defence & European Venture (02:22)

• The geopolitical impact of US halting aid to Ukraine: What does it mean for European defence startups?
• The rise of defence ETFs and their influence on VC investment.
• Trump, NATO, and the potential ripple effects on European security.
• The growing relevance of Turkey in European defence strategies.
• Europe’s defence budgets are growing, but how fast can startups access the market?
• The challenge of military procurement and its implications for defence tech startups.

3. Private Capital & Defence Innovation (06:32)

• The role of dual-use technology in military applications.
• The ethical dilemmas of investing in defence technology.
• Drone warfare: The boom in anti-drone and drone swarm tech.
• Lomax’s insights on the procurement challenge and opportunities for startups.
• Dan’s first-hand experience in Ukraine delivering medical supplies.

4. Trumponomics & European Startups (22:37)

• Trump's proposed tariffs on the EU and potential supply chain shocks.
• How this could drive inflation, stagflation, and impact fundraising for startups.
• The anti-American sentiment in Europe and its impact on consumer and business purchasing decisions.
• Opportunities for EU startups to capitalise on this shift.
• Will founders move to the US earlier to escape potential trade barriers?

5. The Future of Health Tech in Europe (30:37)

• A new breakthrough in immune system research: Could it revolutionise antibiotics?
• The rise of AI in drug discovery and early diagnostics.
• Humanity’s work with Imperial College London: Predicting disease and biological age with just four blood markers.
• Personalized medicine: How it will transform healthcare systems.
• The booming investment landscape: $7B invested in health tech in Europe last year vs. $23B in the US.
• Neko Health, Function Health, and the billion-dollar Series A from Retro Biosciences.

6. Deals of the Week (44:31)

• Alpine Eagle ($10M seed, UK): Drone blocking and attacking tech.
• CloudSmith (Series B, Belfast): Cloud software security startup.
• Quintexa ($175M Series F, UK): AI-powered anti-money laundering and fraud detection.