Trumponomics (Bloomberg)

The U.S. unemployment rate may be at the lowest level since 2000, but some economists want the federal government to go further and guarantee a job for every American. Several potential Democratic presidential candidates support the idea, but the plan faces plenty of hurdles, from how to pay for it to how it would actually get up and running. Economics professor L. Randall Wray, one of the plan's principal authors, and Evercore ISI analyst Ernie Tedeschi discuss the issue with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.

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This week’s episode of Stephanomics comes to you from the third annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum, where global leaders have gathered for a virtual discussion of how to solve the world’s biggest challenges, not least of which is the coronavirus pandemic.

Stephanie Flanders brings together former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, ex-Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to analyze the unprecedented economic response to Covid-19. They debate whether world leaders have done enough to help Main Street instead of just Wall Street, and whether global institutions are being too timid this time around. 

Flanders is then joined by Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin, who talks about the future of trade as Brexit approaches, and just where U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden’s Irish grandparents came from.

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Donald Trump’s trade policies have created winners and losers around the world. Among the big losers so far, count Spanish olive farmers. Their exports to the U.S. were hit with a huge tariff last year. U.S. officials claimed they had been undercutting California olive growers by selling Spanish olives on the cheap. Though barely a blip on the global trade war, it has been very bad news for the olive groves of southern Spain. But business is booming for Europe’s aluminum industry, especially its exports to the U.S., despite President Trump’s tariffs. What gives? 

Bloomberg's Jeannette Neumann wades into the worlds of olives and aluminum to figure out what's going on, then Stephanie talks through some of the many other unintended consequences of U.S. trade wars with Bloomberg trade tsar, Brendan Murray. She and Executive Editor Simon Kennedy also chat about the political pressure being piled on the US Federal Reserve and many other central banks. 

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Bad actors using machine-learning, generative artificial intelligence and the power of digital networks are seeding ever-more distrust in democracy, warns Audrey Tang, former digital affairs minister for Taiwan. Tang joins this week’s episode of Voternomics to discuss the risk of foreign interference in the many elections happening around the world, as well as lessons learned while combating efforts to distort the political debate in Taiwan. 

Plus, Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook discusses the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling which reveals the unease voters feel around the US election—from misinformation to political violence and foreign interference.

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On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, we discuss what the rollout of President Donald Trump’s tariff plan has taught us about the Administration's economic strategy and the future of the US economy. In Trump’s first term, market participants could count on the President adjusting policy if it seemed to be hurting the stock market. Now recession and inflation risks are rising and both the stock market and the US sovereign bond market are flashing red but it’s not clear that the President and his advisors even care.

Host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, is joined by senior editor Ed Harrison, author of Bloomberg’s Everything Risk newsletter and Bloomberg’s senior national political correspondent, Nancy Cook.

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Karen Ward, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief market strategist for EMEA, joins this week to explain why politicians are being punished for the sins of central banks. Ward, a former Bank of England economist and adviser to both UK Chancellors Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt, tells Stephanie Flanders, Allegra Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge about the damage done as a result of missteps when it comes to inflation. 

Plus, Bloomberg News editor Craig Trudell unpacks how Elon Musk is driving on both sides of the US-China relationship. 

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It may be hard to remember, but not too long ago, hailing a taxi in many cities was often a hassle. Ever since companies like Uber and Lyft entered the world, it's become a lot easier for consumers to catch a ride -- and a lot tougher for drivers to make a living. Henry Farber, a Princeton University economist, joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explain the dynamics of this industry -- and how it may be upended once again by driverless cars.

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America's GDP is growing at an amazing 3 percent! Unemployment is at the lowest level in 16 years! The stock market is reaching a new record high every day! The U.S. economy is just going to keep on booming, right? Well, not so fast. The stock market might be surging, but the bond market is painting a more nuanced picture. David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, joins Dan and Scott for a tutorial on Treasuries. 

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In this bonus episode, Andy Browne, the editorial Director of the Bloomberg New Economy, talks to Brian Chesky, chief executive of Airbnb.

A few months ago, the company laid off a quarter of its staff. But since then, the business has since staged a remarkable comeback — and now Airbnb is said to be planning an IPO. Andy and Brian discuss the future of travel, and what a new nomadic workforce might mean for the home rental business.

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There's a crisis in coffee. On Java, the Indonesian island that gives your morning shot its nickname, the bean is struggling. A booming Asian middle class is spurring demand just as climate change is eroding farmland and changing the taste along the way. Indonesia is now being forced to import coffee from Brazil and Vietnam just to keep up. It's a bit like Saudi Arabia importing oil. Jamal Gawi, a climate change consultant in Jakarta, explains what's going on to Bloomberg News' Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View. 

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Trump's election wasn't a fluke. Nor are tariffs a passing fad. They reflect deep-seated trauma at the country's decline relative to China. So enraged and befuddled is the U.S. that it's a danger to itself, its closest allies and the global trading system, says former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr. A long-time lover of Americana and leader of the Chester A. Arthur Society, Carr is no crazy leftie. He tells Dan Moss of Bloomberg Opinion and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News why he's just about given up on the U.S.   

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The world’s biggest businesses are massive, spanning countries and continents. Now they're getting even larger, and that may not be a good thing. In the past few decades alone, the largest 50 firms have tripled their profit. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google together make more money in a week than McDonald's makes in an entire year. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg’s Chief Economist Tom Orlik about what the rise of these mega-companies could mean for the global economy. 

London School of Economics Professor Philippe Aghion joins Flanders to explain why the rise of big tech, once great for innovation and growth, is no longer. Aghion also discusses his plan for getting the very best out of capitalists. And French economy reporter William Horobin explains why the campaign to extract tax from the tech giants just got a lot more interesting.

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Economically at least, this holiday season feels a bit more like it belongs to Ebenezer Scrooge than Santa Claus. Amid a resurgent pandemic, there are shortages at the grocery store and the highest inflation in almost 40 years. So who better to sum up 2021 and forecast 2022 than Larry Summers, whose contrarian warnings about inflation have, at least at this point, largely proven accurate.

On this special holiday edition of Stephanomics, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary shares with host Stephanie Flanders how he arrived at his prediction that inflation would run higher than most everyone else expected, and why he fears "we are already reaching a point where it will be challenging to reduce inflation without giving rise to recession.” Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid Bloomberg contributor, also explains why he thinks "running the economy hot" is unlikely to help U.S. workers get a larger slice of the economic pie.

If inflation isn't enough to further dampen your spirits, Summers also tells Flanders why the nation may see a double whammy of recession and "secular stagnation," an unappealing mix of weak growth and persistently low interest rates.

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Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum don't add up to a trade war. It's more like a frontier skirmish. But, what would a real conflict look like? Who would win and who would lose? Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explore these questions, and what tariffs might mean for you.

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Welcome to the first episode of Voternomics. On this podcast, Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics coverage, Allegra Stratton, author of Bloomberg’s The Readout newsletter and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge discuss how voters have the opportunity to affect markets, countries and economies like never before. Historian Niall Ferguson and Bloomberg Washington reporter Nancy Cook join our hosts to give their take on this unique moment in time.

Ferguson explains why he believes the 2024 US presidential election isn’t about foreign policy, why Donald Trump is using his 2016 campaign strategy and why the second Cold War is escalating faster than the first. 

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In the second of this four-part series on China's Belt and Road initiative, we talk to Haslinda Amin, who hosts the second episode of Bloomberg's TV series on the initiative and has traveled extensively through Southeast and Central Asia for the project. She looks at the complex ways countries in the region view China's sprawling infrastructure investment. India, for example, has one of the world's largest rail networks, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has committed in excess of 3 billion dollars to the country's transportation system. This episode explores the political and strategic reasons China is interested in contributing to boosting India's infrastructure.

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For the past three decades, South African politics have been defined by the African National Congress. But with initial forecasts from the May 29 vote showing a marked decline in support for the ruling party, change looks likely. 

So what do the various potential outcomes mean for South Africa’s growth and debt outlook? For investor interest in the country? Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge and Senior Executive Editor Jacqueline Simmons review the landscape with Bloomberg economist Yvonne Mhango.

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Ahead of next month's crucial US midterm elections, Democrats would usually be counting on the support of labor unions, historically a key constituency for the party. And unions are having a moment in this late pandemic era, with successful organizing drives among Starbucks baristas and Amazon warehouse workers. But despite President Joe Biden's efforts to woo them, many union members are showing a lack of enthusiasm for Democrats that may undercut the party's bid to keep control of both houses of Congress.

In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, reporter Katia Dmitrieva provides a dispatch from the traditional union stronghold of Macomb County, Michigan. Biden, who promised to be the most pro-union president ever, has followed through to an extent by regularly touting their importance while creating a labor task force, enacting its proposals and helping secure a deal that may yet avert a damaging railroad strike. Still, some workers in this Detroit-area county say they hoped for more. Democratic efforts to raise the federal minimum wage struck out in a sharply divided Congress, and the PRO Act, legislation to strengthen collective bargaining, has stalled. In the words of one Starbucks barista, who helped unionize her store, the Biden administration's efforts have been "a little bit performative."

Then Stephanie speaks to University of California, Berkeley economist Bradford DeLong about his new book, Slouching Towards Utopia. DeLong argues that the 20th century essentially started in 1870, a technological turning point after which production was rapid enough that (at least theoretically) we could bake a large enough economic pie to provide for all. The fact that, in the real world, everyone doesn't have enough is a symptom of our failure to distribute goods and services equitably, DeLong observes. Getting in the way of that goal as well are human foibles including a desire to distribute wealth to their children and a related disdain for inheritance taxes, as well as abhorrence of people who appear to be getting a free ride, he says.

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Will trade wars go the way of 2019 or keep on raging?

Is Europe’s economy finally on a rebound?

What does U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election victory mean for U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democrats running to replace him?

These are just a few of the questions that Stephanie Flanders and our Bloomberg panel address in a special roundtable discussion.

Flanders is joined by Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, senior trade and economy reporter Shawn Donnan, and European economy editor Jana Randow as they reflect on the key moments of 2019, and look ahead to 2020.

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As a tumultuous year for the global economy comes to a close, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with someone on the front line of the policy response. Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane discusses the outlook for recovery now that vaccinations have begun, how central bankers view inflation and whether the pandemic is really the answer to the productivity puzzle.

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“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we’ll be all poorer and we would be less secure.”

In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says.

Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says.

Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.

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Globally, women make 50 percent less than men. In the U.S. and U.K., it's about 20 percent. Why? What are some countries trying to do to fix it? And is this even possible? Rebecca Greenfield, host of Bloomberg's "The Pay Check" podcast, joins Scott Lanman to discuss some of the findings and stories from her show.

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Before the pandemic, relations between the U.S. and China were already at rock bottom. Since then, they've gotten even worse, with both sides trading blame for the Covid-19 outbreak, spinning conspiracy theories and abandoning cooperation on all fronts. To discuss what this all means for the Covid economy,

Andy Browne caught up with two Wall Street Journal reporters, Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, to talk about their new book, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War.

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It’s been a long time since anyone in America or Europe had to think seriously about inflation. But the highest U.S. numbers since 2009 have rattled financial markets and critics of President Joe Biden are warning that his big spending could trigger a full-blown 70s-style price spiral.

Bloomberg Senior Asia Economy Correspondent Enda Curran reports from Hong Kong on the price pressures facing Asian exporters, and how they’re affecting what consumers pay in American stores. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks to Jason Thomas, head of Global Research at the Carlyle Group, who says he believes that reopening the U.S. economy will help push inflation back down again—and that the long-term forces which have kept a lid on prices are still in place. 

With U.S. gas stations across the Southeast running short of supply and drivers sitting in line to fill their tanks, you would have been forgiven for thinking the 70s had already returned. Though the Colonial Pipeline is now back up and running, Chief Energy Correspondent Javier Blas explains how a cyberattack on America’s biggest fuel conduit could do such damage, and why U.S. energy companies are scrambling to shore up their defenses. 

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The novel coronavirus has reshaped the global economy, shifting the attitudes of governments, central bankers and consumers alike. It has changed how we work—if we work—and altered monetary and fiscal policy around the globe.

As this tumultuous season of Stephanomics draws to a close, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with two leading economists about what they’ve learned from the crisis so far. Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC, and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, share their thoughts on how their profession has reacted to the pandemic, what uncertainty means for businesses and markets, and the generational implications of closing down economies to protect the most vulnerable.

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Can South America's largest economy get any worse? It may all depend on the outcome of next month's presidential election in Brazil. The campaign has already seen its share of drama, and investors are spooked about a return to heavy government intervention in the economy that could see banks forced to offer cheap credit. Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss discuss the election with Bloomberg editor Bruce Douglas in Brasilia. 

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As a special bonus, we’re bringing Benchmark listeners the first peek at a four-part series on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. President Xi Jinping calls it the project of the century: a massive infrastructure spending program that hopes to enhance trade and connectivity throughout Eurasia. Through a networks of projects that span the transportation, finance, telecom and power industries, the economic corridors and maritime roads that span Eurasia could fundamentally change the dynamics of global business. In the first of four episodes, we find out what Belt and Road is, and why it’s been described as everything from “an exercise in empire building” to “a new world order.”

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The Benchmark crew celebrates the podcast's 100th episode with a trip through highlights as picked by hosts and producers, both past and present. From the Nobel Prize to Duke Bootee, Dan and Scott — along with some special guests — share the moments that put a human face on that thing we call economics. And we look forward at what the next 100 episodes will bring.

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Why does the U.S. still dominate discussion in a major Chinese city? On a multi-week trip to Asia, Dan discovers a surprising place where America's dominance in Asia is unparalleled and gains some insight into Japan's labor market during a busy lunch hour in Tokyo's financial district. Guest host Joe Weisenthal from Bloomberg's `Odd Lots' podcast holds Dan to account and road tests some of his theories.

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What is the U.S. debt ceiling, where did it come from and why does it matter? This time the familiar Washington ritual has a twist. And investors are starting to anticipate something new: The most critical of deadlines may be missed. How can this happen when the White House and Congress are controlled, nominally, by the same party? Why even have a debt ceiling? Special guests Alex Harris and Brian Chappatta join Dan to explain that this time it actually could be different.

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What is Thucydides's trap and how does it foretell the future of U.S.-China economic ties? Much has been said about China's strategic challenges to America. Less talked about is the financial tussle between the two. Harvard's Graham Allison walks Dan through his latest book and explains why a conflict is more likely than many people imagine. Along the way, Allison talks about North Korea and how dealing with a "nutty regime" fits into the broader competition between Washington and Beijing. 

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Western Capitalism is supposed to thrive on Joseph Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction. Yet few companies really nurture creativity. Beancounters loom, ready to take away the canvas that the next big thing is sketched on. Take heart: Thinking about art can help business and finance executives get to Point B. They don't always have to know what Point B looks like before they begin. New York University Professor and author Amy Whitaker explains why to Dan and Scott. Along the way she shares anecdotes about investment bankers in pinstripes mucking it up in a London studio. And how did Oscar-winning `Dallas Buyers Club' almost not get made?

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The U.S. doesn’t just have a new president this week. The world’s largest economy is also getting a new Treasury Secretary, albeit a familiar face, in Janet Yellen. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg’s U.S. Treasury reporter Chris Condon, who listened in to Yellen’s confirmation hearing for a sneak preview of what her reign at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue might look like.

Across the Pacific in Hong Kong, Senior Asia Economy Correspondent Enda Curran goes in search of an unexpectedly elusive commodity—shipping containers. The global shipping industry is struggling to deliver what the world wants to buy, leaving exporters and importers everywhere feeling the pain and awakening fears that these supply chain issues could stop the economic recovery in its tracks.

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A push for peace in Ukraine, a recovering China and good news for US consumers may be in the cards.

Will China keep moving beyond its "Covid-zero" policy in the face of a massive infection wave? When and how will Russia's war on Ukraine end? Will Donald Trump really go ahead with his US presidential campaign next year? Groundhog Day won't arrive in the US until February, but until then the Stephanomics podcast has assembled a crack team of prognosticators rivaling Punxsutawney Phil himself to give a glimpse into 2023.

In this annual look-ahead edition of the podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into the future with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and three Bloomberg experts, Chief Economist Tom Orlik, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and London-based TV anchor Francine Lacqua. First, with inflation and interest rates dominating economic headlines, Orlik gives a somewhat reassuring outlook for the US. Price hikes will fall rapidly from their perch above 7% in 2023, but they'll remain high enough that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening the money supply for now, Orlik says.

In US politics, Trump's bid for a second term has gotten off to a slow start. Facing multiple criminal investigations and diminishing party support, some are wondering if his heart is really in it. However, since he's announced that he's running, we'd better assume the Republican might be on the ballot in 2024, even if potential rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis don't clear a path for him, Collins said. The man who defeated Trump in 2020, President Joe Biden, has his own challenges next year now that the GOP controls the House of Representatives. Collins sees Biden circumventing a deadlocked Congress by making prolific use of executive orders, as many of his predecessors have done in the past.

Across the Atlantic, Grant predicts the French, Italians and Germans, joined by the US, will eventually urge Ukraine to cede territory to reach a peace agreement, despite the tens of thousands of its citizens killed by Russia in its war. While some Eastern European nations are taking a hardline stance against the Kremlin, including pushing for regime change, Biden and his allies foresee having to work with Russia over the long term, Grant says, and may take a more diplomatic approach. Meantime, the continent has been spared a full-on energy crisis, in part because of a mild European winter and a large supply of natural gas in storage, Lacqua says. That could change, though, with the European Union's new cap on gas prices. Energy importers may choose to send their natural gas elsewhere and cause prices in Europe to soar, Lacqua warns.

China currently faces a national crisis as coronavirus cases flood hospitals and threaten to kill more than a million people. It's a public health catastrophe that was triggered by Xi Jinping's sudden reversal of his "Covid-zero" policy. But in 2023, that turnabout may have Beijing's desired effects: After the infection wave recedes, Orlik predicts China's economy may finally turn the corner. He sees the country growing by 5.1% next year, with the risk being that it grows too quickly and puts a strain on the world's commodity supplies. For now, the US and Europe have been somewhat at odds over China, with the US more concerned about Beijing's accumulation of power and the threat to US security. Europe may be forced to side with its US allies, Grant says. "The more we get into a sort of new Cold War, the more inevitably the Europeans, however reluctantly, are forced to take sides and will take sides on the American side," he says.

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The US debt ceiling is all anyone in Washington (and increasingly elsewhere) can talk about these days. For months, politicians have been in a stalemate triggered by Republican demands for spending cuts as the price for paying America's debts. With next week seen as the point at which the Treasury may have to start issuing IOUs, any deal to avert a catastrophic default is going to come down to the wire. 

Recent sticking points are tied to potential spending caps, the GOP's insistence on slashing domestic spending for several years and the Biden administration's desire for more limited cuts. On this episode of Stephanomics, Senior Editor Chris Anstey and reporter Josh Wingrove give us the state of play, from explaining what exactly the debt ceiling is to laying out some scenarios of how things progress from here. 

Stephanie then sits down with economist Stephen King to talk about government debt levels more broadly, and if we should be worried given how high interest rates have climbed.

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In a matter of weeks the Covid-19 virus has turned the world upside down. In the start of a new season of Stephanomics, James Mayger and Zhu Lin report from China - the original epicenter of the virus – on how truck drivers there are trying to get back to normal. Then host Stephanie Flanders asks US economist Adam Posen how the economics profession has risen to the challenge of the crisis - and whether the right advice has been getting through to governments.

The terrible human cost of the coronavirus has been evident for some time. But most countries are only now starting to see the economic cost which fighting the pandemic will also inflict. In this third season of Stephanomics we’ll be doing our best to help you understand that story with reporting and insights from experts inside and outside Bloomberg.

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Last year, Larry Summers famously shot down one of the Federal Reserve's favorite buzzwords, "transitory." This year, he's taking aim at "soft landing."

The Harvard University professor, former Treasury secretary and paid Bloomberg contributor says a combination of high inflation and low unemployment historically has spawned a recession. So, he's skeptical that the Fed can chart a path that will see the country out of its inflationary funk without causing an economic downturn. Once again, Summers is more pessimistic than his peers, with economists pegging the chance of recession in the next year at just 27.5% in a recent Bloomberg survey.

This week, Summers shares his thoughts on why the Fed needs to be more willing to acknowledge what he calls its monetary policy failures. He also comments on why he thinks some recent Biden administration moves to ease prices increases will be ineffectual, and about why he thinks Americans need to sacrifice more in order to punish Russia for the "worst threat in 75 years of naked aggression."

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To help you plan for Trump's singular approach to economics, Bloomberg presents Trumponomics, a weekly podcast focused on the Trump administration's economic policies and plans. Editorial head of government and economics Stephanie Flanders will be joined each week by reporters in Washington D.C. and Wall Street to examine how Trump's policies are shaping the global economy and what on earth is going to happen next. New episodes on Wednesdays.

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The U.S. and China are on the verge of a trade war, one that President Donald Trump says will be easy to win. So how will it really impact China's economy? Is the nation's GDP really growing at an incredible 7 percent rate, or is it about to collapse from a mountain of debt and aging population? Jeff Kearns, a Bloomberg editor who just finished a three-year stint in Beijing, helps separate myth from fact with host Scott Lanman, himself a former China economy editor.

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Governments spent trillions of dollars in 2020 tackling the pandemic while propping up businesses and households. But the unprecedented expenditure has awakened real concern about such high levels of borrowing. World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart says we should worry about winning the war first and how to pay for it later. She joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss why policymakers shouldn't confuse rebound with recovery, and how a slow rollout of vaccines may cut global growth in half this year. 

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Jamie Rush about the real cost of all that borrowing. And Bloomberg Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy looks at the parallels between the current crisis and that of the 1920s, and how this decade could be just as roaring. 

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As Xi Jinping embarks on his third term as China's president, the world's most populous nation has lost some of the zeal for growth, experimentation and global collaboration that defined it two decades ago. In its place, both Xi and China are focusing on security above everything else, argues Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Today, Beijing is "fighting with the US, fighting against pandemics, trying to secure what it has rather than open up and explore new opportunities," Orlik says. Everyone else is left trying to figure out how to cope with this less-freewheeling China.

On this week's Stephanomics, we delve into the present and future of China's relations with the rest of the world following the Chinese Communist Party Congress. First, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Orlik about what a third term of Xi means. It's arguable China isn't in immediate danger of slipping into bad governance, and that--for all the economic turmoil of its "zero Covid" policy--China has done a better job protecting citizens from the coronavirus than the West. In the long term, though, there are dangers. Vital positions in China's central bank or its Ministry of Finance could be staffed by old-guard bureaucrats instead of dynamic reformers, Orlik says.

Next, reporter Carolynn Look and editor James Mayger share how Europe's own relationship with China is fraying over reports of Chinese human rights abuses and anger over aggressive trade tactics against Lithuania. Still, for all the handwringing, few European companies show signs of scaling back investments in China. Finally, we reflect on an alarming speech by Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson at a recent Group of 30 conference. He argues that, while everyone's worried that the 2020s will see a repeat of the inflationary 1970s, we may be fortunate if that's all that happens, given the prospect of economic calamity and global war.

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It's not tastebuds or the latest fetish at trendy health food stores that's driving the boom in bug gastronomy. Broad economic forces like climate change and population growth mean insects and grubs are appearing on more menus around the world. Bloomberg's Agnieszka de Sousa talks with Scott and Dan about how little critters can avert a food crisis, while Olympia Yarger talks about her bug-food startup. 

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For decades, Asia’s fast-growing economies have offered millions of young people the chance to do better than their parents. Thanks to Covid-19, that tradition may soon end as youth unemployment soars in a region home to most of the world’s young adults. So what happens when your economic opportunities dry up? Bloomberg’s Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran reports from Hong Kong on the struggles and hopes of the “lockdown generation.” 

Then host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik about what the world could look like in 2050, and who wins or loses if the trend toward deglobalization continues. Flanders also talks with Eurozone economist Maeva Cousin on the cost of climate change and why it may take farsighted policy makers to see the rewards of acting now.

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Dispirited by pandemic lockdowns and a massive real estate crisis, today’s young Chinese workers are dreaming less about becoming super-rich entrepreneurs and more about the workaday lives of bureaucrats. Their new distaste for private-sector jobs has caught the attention of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which is trying to change opinions and recruit for private-sector manufacturing jobs that are going begging.

In this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Tom Hancock discusses the unrest brewing among China’s youth. Many have newly minted degrees and a growing number have embraced anti-capitalist idealism, exacerbating a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the jobs they actually want. Meantime, younger workers see the country’s state-owned enterprises as more stable than privately-owned ones amid Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, creating intense competition for public-sector jobs.

The upshot is the jobless rate among China’s youth is likely to hit 20%, which has alarmed President Xi Jinping’s government. Host Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about the outlook for the world’s biggest country. He says China likely has been overstating its growth for years, giving critics reason to question how big its economy actually is right now. But China’s leadership has proven it can develop that economy, and “it would be a big mistake for us to underestimate how big they will likely become in the next 10 or 20 years,” Orlik says.

And, Flanders also talks worker wages with Rachel Reeves, who as the UK’s Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer is the chief economic voice of the opposition Labour Party. It’s a risky topic to address since Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey got lambasted last winter for suggesting workers forgo seeking pay raises because they might be inflationary. Reeves wouldn’t say what a reasonable increase for workers would be, given ongoing discussions over pay by UK authorities, but suggested the trick to giving everyone a raise is boosting the economy. 

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Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse.

In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless.

Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says.

Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.

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You've heard about Xi Jinping now becoming China's leader for life. But did you know about his new economic team? They are the ones who could help direct -- or deflect -- a possible trade war between the U.S. and China. China economy expert Nicholas Lardy gives the lowdown on these men to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.

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Climate change is fast transforming the planet. Global warming is fueling drought, massive wildfires, rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes. Now scientists and economists are worried about another knock-on effect: faster inflation.

On this episode of Stephanomics, we hear from reporter Laura Curtis, who explains how drought has lowered the water level of a lake feeding the Panama Canal, which could in turn boost shipping costs. A similar phenomenon is already playing out in Europe, where low water levels in the Rhine River are making it more expensive to transport key commodities across the continent.

Then host Stephanie Flanders chats with Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen and Bloomberg economist Bhargavi Sakthivel about the economic impacts of El Nino, a period of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The system, which scientists say is becoming more frequent and intense thanks to global warming, is already placing upward pressure on prices of agricultural goods like coffee and sugar. That could lead to higher inflation and lower growth in several countries in the tropics and southern hemisphere.

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“What Goes Up” is a new show from Bloomberg that tracks the main themes influencing global markets. Hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan speak with guests about the wildest movements in markets and what they mean for your investments. The show is out now, and can be found on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen.

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This week we unpack two very different challenges facing global leaders: the climate crisis and domestic violence. First, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joins host Stephanie Flanders to share why he thinks the Glasgow Climate Pact is more than just words on paper. Among other achievements, Kerry notes that countries representing most of the world’s gross domestic product agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade. Such cuts to this dangerous greenhouse gas (if they actually happen) would be a worthy accomplishment, even if rich nations have yet to fulfill a pledge to steer $100 billion a year to poorer nations facing the brunt of climate change.

As countries try to cut carbon, whether by a tax on emissions or other measures, leaders can limit the effects on inflation by adopting the measures sooner rather than later—when more drastic measures may be needed, Bloomberg’s senior Euro-area economist Maeva Cousin says.

Finally, Frankfurt-based economics reporter Carolynn Look shares the harrowing story of a German woman who escaped a violent partner and how some European companies are stepping forward to fight domestic abuse. They have a financial imperative as well as a moral one: gender-based violence is estimated by the European Institute for Gender Equality to cost the European Union economy 366 billion euros ($409 billion) a year.

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Voternomics fans, here's another podcast you might enjoy: In the City. 

It's hosted by Allegra, with Bloomberg TV's Francine Lacqua and head of media David Merrit and this week's episode looks at how an increasing number of US billionaires and multimillionaires relocating to the UK is changing the luxury landscape. Bloomberg housing reporter Damian Shepherd joins. 

Read more on the story here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-23/london-luxury-property-market-eyes-americans-for-rebound

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There’s little debate that Covid-19 has crushed economies and triggered government rescue efforts not seen in modern times. On this week’s episode, World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart and fellow Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, authors of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” discuss what comes next with Bloomberg Economics executive editor Simon Kennedy.

The depth of the U.S. recession isn’t the only way in which this time is different. While tens of millions are newly unemployed or working fewer hours, new pandemic-adjacent occupations are emerging. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg global business reporter Jeff Green about these new jobs, such as contract tracer and thermal scanner.

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Thirty years after the Cold War ended, a new one of sorts is emerging between China and the West, a leading economic scholar asserts. As a muscular China seeks to refashion trade and geopolitical organizations in its own image, the US and many of its allies face a key challenge: keeping Beijing on board with trade pacts and efforts to slow global warming without ceding ground on democratic freedoms.

In this special episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks economics and geopolitics with Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the new book, Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order. Years ago, world leaders could set their monetary, national security and human rights policies independently, but nowadays all of those things are interconnected and everything is more complicated. This new reality was evident when the Group of Seven leading economies, responding to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, froze Russian currency reserves held in Western banks, Tucker says.

Tucker predicts that developing nations will eventually topple the existing world order, shaping one in which the US, Europe and Japan no longer call all the shots. In this new iteration, international trade and diplomatic entities will have to be completely remade. But Tucker says that’s still a few decades away, because while China is already a world power, India and a few other developing nations remain a ways off. For now, the US will enjoy a “lingering status quo” in global finance as issuer of the world’s premier reserve currency, but global trade, cross-border investment and everything else will see more jostling for power, something between a “superpower struggle” and a “new Cold War.”

Tucker sees China trying to influence global trade and politics much more in coming years, a real concern for the West since Beijing tends to prioritize Communist Party control over civil liberties. World leaders will need to walk a fine line when dealing with Beijing, he says, working with China on pressing global issues while distancing themselves on others. “I think the big thing is China is too powerful” for the US and its allies to tell it how to reorder its society, Tucker tells Flanders. Still, the West should “should find common cause” where it can.

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In Argentina, the cost of borrowing is shooting up to stratospheric levels with interest rates rising to 40 percent. The country's leadership promised a new era that put this sort of trajectory behind it. But now, Argentina finds itself in talks with the International Monetary Fund for loans to shore up its finances. Federico Kaune, head of emerging markets fixed income at UBS Asset Management, tells Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion how Argentina got to this point, how the country can make it right and how this is part of a larger challenge facing emerging markets.

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The rapid commercialization of space is launching the world into an “era of astropolitics,” journalist and author Tim Marshall tells host Allegra Stratton on this episode of Voternomics.

Commercial companies are driving “Space Race 2.0,” from commercial fleets of satellites a few hundred miles above Earth to NASA’s search for private companies to bring back a piece of the moon. Ultimately, Marshall says, entities are eyeing the lucrative prospect of mining extraterrestrial objects for resources needed to provide renewable energy. “As a country or a company, you cannot afford not to be part of this.” 

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Centrist politics is doing it wrong, Michael Ignatieff says. He would know: In 2011 he led Canada's Liberal Party to a historic defeat -- a "painful" experience he discusses with hosts Allegra Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge.

Now a professor of history and a former president of the Central European University, Ignatieff reflects on what he did wrong, including failing to respond to the 2008 financial crisis. 

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The pandemic has raised the specter of mass unemployment across many developed economies. In Europe, governments stepped in to help pay millions of workers, hoping the crisis would quickly pass and businesses reopen. But with normality nowhere in sight and fresh waves of infection prompting new restrictions, the question now is which jobs should we try to save?

On this week’s episode, Bloomberg economy reporter Jeannette Neumann reports from Cadiz, Spain, where old industries hold lessons for the present battle to save jobs. Stephanie Flanders also talks with leading economists Paul Collier and John Kay about their new book, “Greed Is Dead,” and why Gordon Gekko might have been wrong. Community, it turns out, plays a surprisingly large role in capitalism.

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The UK's politics and policies have always been a bit quirky. But international investors have long trusted that the country would, in the words of prominent British economist Malcolm Barr, see itself from point A to point B. Lately, those investors could be forgiven for calling that premise into question. A series of unforced errors by new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her financial team have shaken confidence in Britain's leadership at a time when its public is reeling from soaring energy and mortgage costs.

In the first episode of this season's Stephanomics podcast, we deliver a triple dose of UK turmoil. First, Bloomberg UK political editor Kitty Donaldson details Truss's arguably terrible debut. Donaldson spent the week at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where some of the prime minister's fellow Tories are "hopping mad" after tax cuts proposed by Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng spooked financial markets and sent the pound to its lowest level since 1985. In an embarrassing U-turn, Truss had to scrap her plans to cut the 45% tax rate on top earners.

Next, Stephanie Flanders talks with Barr about what the market chaos means for the UK (both now and later) as well as its trading partners and investors. Head of European economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barr argues that some of the guardrails that have steered British politicians toward sound, orthodox economic decisions in the past have fallen away. An independent central bank, a proficient civil service and functioning parliamentary oversight have all been undermined to the point that it's "hard to imagine a similar set of errors having been made by any incoming administration over the last 15 to 20 years."

Finally, Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray takes us to Liverpool, where dockworkers say they're missing out as the port city bustles with tourists and expensive new soccer stadiums. They're staging a strike to demand higher pay amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and for now, have the sympathy of the public.

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It seems nothing can hurt the world's billionaires, not the worst pandemic in a century or a global recession. On this week's podcast, New York-based reporter Augusta Saraiva shares how the wealthiest only added to their fortunes as Covid-19 killed millions and flattened economies. Indeed, the super-rich accumulated $4.1 trillion just as 100 million of the planet's less fortunate fell into extreme poverty, according to estimates by the World Bank. Two years into the pandemic, some 2,750 billionaires now control 3.5% of the world's wealth -- almost double the holdings of the planet's poorest 50%, according to the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab. 

For those whose holdings don't reach ten figures but must still buy holiday gifts, Hong Kong-based economy reporter Enda Curran reports on the run-up in toy prices. He visits the maker of the Mighty Megasaur Megahunter T-Rex, who warns that consumers will shell out as much as 20% more this year because of the supply chain pinch. And finally, we provide a double dose of German politics as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down following 16 years in office. Berlin-based producer Aggi Cantrill reports from the German parliament while Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, explains why Germany's smooth transition of power is so different from the kind of rancor that has befallen the U.K. and U.S. 

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With President Donald Trump firing independent regulators and killing off advisory committees, David Wilcox, director of US economic research for Bloomberg Economics, and editor Molly Smith discuss why data on the world's largest economy may be next.

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As if rising sea levels and fiercer cyclones weren't enough to worry about, the climate crisis is already cutting crop yields and could lead to widespread food shortages. That's the grave warning from the United Nations, which cautions that farmers won't meet a projected 50% increase in food demand by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. 

In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders tackles how to feed almost 10 billion people, the projected population of the planet in three decades. She turned to four leaders in global agriculture at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore for their insight. Technology will play a starring role, says Werner Baumann, chairman of German healthcare and agricultural giant Bayer AG. One Bayer project involves developing "short-stature" corn that resists stalk breakage and can be planted more densely. Cargill Inc. Chairman David MacLennan insists genetically modified organisms must be part of the solution, though GMOs are a controversial component of modern agriculture with significant opposition.

Finally, the panelists had some ideas regarding a tweet from the world's richest man, who last month offered to put up $6 billion if a UN official could prove the money would solve world hunger. Sara Menker, chief executive of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence, suggests Elon Musk's money would be best spent creating a new financial institution to help modernize how many crops are traded. More fundamentally, Musk's money could build roads and crop storage facilities so farmers in developing nations could more easily get their products to market, says Alloysius Attah of Farmerline, which helps farmers embrace technology.

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Harnessing Bloomberg's reporting from every continent, Bloomberg's daily Prognosis podcast brings the news, data and analysis you need for living in the time of Covid-19. In around ten minutes, we will explain the latest developments in health and science, the impact on individuals, industries and governments and the adaptions they are making in the face of the global pandemic. Come back every weekday afternoon for a short dose of the best information about the novel coronavirus from more than 120 bureaus around the world.

First episode drops Thursday, March 26. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

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Look beyond headlines on unemployment and job creation and you'll see a bigger transformation. The global market for labor was boosted for three decades by a handful of historical flukes now going into reverse. Robots everywhere, including China, will be at the forefront of this change, says Andrew Schwedel, a partner at Bain & Co. He tells Bloomberg Opinion's Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News why the era of plentiful labor is ending.  

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One of the first global consumer companies to feel the impact of Covid-19 was the beer giant AB InBev, whose brands include Budweiser, Corona and Stella Artois. AB InBev operates a brewery in Whuan China where the pandemic began and which was the worlds first city to go into lockdown.

But as life returns to normal in Wuhan and cities all over the world, beer is flowing again in record quantities. In this interview, Andy Browne talks to AB InBevs CEO Carlos Brito about this turnaround in fortunes and how Brito ultimately sees us bounce back from this temporary isolation in celebration.

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Voters in Brazil just took a leftward turn in electing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, ousting the far-right populist incumbent. Next week, polls show US voters may move in the opposite direction, dealing a blow to Democratic President Joe Biden and his party.

This week's Stephanomics episode explores the economic and political winds in two of the world's largest nations. First, Flanders talks US midterms with Anna Wong, Bloomberg's chief US economist, and reporter Nancy Cook. Overall, the US economy is functioning better than it appears to those focusing on inflation, with a strong job market and high balances in bank accounts, Wong says. Yet, high prices have a way of making consumers feel things are gloomier than they are, and that's not good for Democrats. And if Republicans seize control of one or both houses of Congress, Cook notes that will spell the end of meaningful economic legislation from the Biden administration until the end of the term.

Next, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro explains the challenges facing Lula after his defeat of Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil has seen progress this year on inflation, with rates falling from 12% to an expected 5.6% next month. However, economists note the improvement is less impressive than it seems, generated in large part by tax cuts instead of real changes in the economy. Meantime, the new president will be under pressure to deliver on campaign promises to cut taxes for the poor, increase them for the rich and provide a minimum income level for the most needy.

In a follow-up discussion, analyst Richard Back of XP Investimentos in Brazil shares with host Stephanie Flanders why he thinks Lula is likely to propose moderate economic policies, despite his progressive reputation. With many acolytes of Bolsonaro still in Brazil's National Congress, Lula knows he cannot be "radical or revengeful," Back says. International investors see the new president as someone who "will make distortions, but he's not the guy that will blow everything."

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When facing an economic crisis, the Fed's playbook normally skews toward juicing the economy too much rather than too little. After all, in the last go-round in 2007, being too stingy might have helped trigger a depression. Fifteen years later though, America's central bankers face the opposite problem: they need to move fast to cool inflation.

That's one of the takeaways from a panel discussion among economists this week, moderated by Stephanie. With U.S. inflation at 7%, the Fed needs to do more than expected, said Bill Dudley, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics. Dramatically raising interest rates by a half-point in March is worth a look, Dudley said, though unlikely to happen. 

Meantime, Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong explains why U.S. workers, who've gone missing lately, are likely to rejoin the labor force soon. And, chief global economist Tom Orlik shares why President Xi Jinping isn't about to let China's economy implode while he seeks to cement lifetime power. Finally, on a lighter note, reporter David Hood shares everyone's frustrations with the IRS, where customer service is so bad that some tax professionals are hiring robots to wait in line for them.

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As India and Pakistan celebrate their 70th birthdays, Benchmark looks at the economic partition of colonial India into the two independent nations. The violence and human tragedy that accompanied the division has been widely chronicled. Less discussed, but no less important, is the economic divergence between the two. How did Pakistan's economy stumble after a promising start? What happened to India in the early 1990s that led it to take off after a sluggish couple of decades? Faris Khan tells Dan and Scott about his own family's journey to Pakistan while Nisid Hajari injects a note of caution into India's bullish assumptions.

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A troubled company threatens a nation's entire economy. It's not Lehman Brothers a decade ago -- and it's not even a bank. No, this time it's Agrokor, Croatia's dominant food maker -- and its potential collapse could even extend Russia's influence in Eastern Europe. Scott and Dan get the scoop from Bloomberg reporters Luca Casiraghi and Jasmina Kuzmanovic.

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North Korea seems an unlikely place for capitalism to take hold. But markets are playing a bigger role in daily life in the country. While that's created a degree of economic stability in the short run, it's also inexorably undermining the power of the state and making ruler Kim Jong-Un more vulnerable over the longer term. What role does the economy play in the outcome of today's nuclear standoff? Professor and author Byung-Yeon Kim explains to Dan and Scott.

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Some of the planet's most powerful people may be out of a job in the next two years. Beginning in the next few months, terms start ending for the central bankers who control the price of money in the world. First Janet Yellen, whose term ends February. Up next, Haruhiko Kuroda in April. England's Mark Carney departs in 2019 as does Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. How many of them will survive and, if they depart, what will be their legacy? Guest Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, walks Dan and Scott through the horse race. 

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The longest economic expansion in the developed world may not be much longer for this world -- and that fear helped drive the shock election result in Australia last week. In the country where GDP has been growing for an amazing almost 28 years, Bloomberg's Chris Bourke explores how the cratering real estate market is threatening the first recession since Vanilla Ice topped the music charts. 

Host Stephanie Flanders also talks with Bloomberg editor Malcolm Scott and economist Tamara Henderson about what the conservative government's re-election means for the economy Down Under. Then Stephanie catches up with Federal Reserve reporter Chris Condon about the central bank's sweeping review of how it approaches policy. 

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Internet companies have long been the target of complaints that they don’t pay their fair share of taxes. The system wasn’t built for a digital global economy, but how do you now impose rules on multinational tech giants? Bloomberg Economy reporter William Horobin reports from Paris on the battle to find common ground among almost 140 countries and avoid a new transatlantic trade conflict.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Pascal Saint-Amans, director of the center for tax policy at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the man trying to find a way through the arguments. 

She also speaks with Ivory Coast reporter Leanne de Bassompierre about a very different trade spat between the chocolate makers we all know and love and the West African nations that produce their cocoa. It’s a fight that might play out in the price of your Hershey’s kisses this Christmas.

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Protests all across America following the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, have put yet another spotlight on the deep inequality between black and white America. That disparity was also laid bare in last week’s jobs data, when a surprise drop in overall unemployment masked the fact that black joblessness has climbed to its highest level in more than a decade.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with economy reporter Matthew Boesler about what these inequities mean for policy setting at the Federal Reserve, and Jason Furman, a former economic advisor to President Barack Obama, gives his thoughts about what lies ahead for U.S. employment after Covid-19.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economist Boingotlo Gasealahwe about the challenges facing African nations as they seek to fund post-pandemic recoveries. Without the backstop of cheap finance, they risk a protracted slump that could curtail development for decades.

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This week, more than 60 container ships sat anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, waiting for their chance to unload as makers of everything from board games to bicycles sweat the looming holiday season. How did the world’s supply chains get so snarled? In the first episode of the new season of Stephanomics, reporters, manufacturers and economists across three continents explain the myriad problems plaguing shippers and offer a sobering prediction for the near future.

First, Enda Curran, Bloomberg’s chief economics correspondent in Asia, takes us to Hong Kong, where a coffee machine manufacturer must wait up to nine months for key electronic components to arrive. Meanwhile, the cost of moving one container from Asia to the U.S. has risen from $2,000 at the start of the pandemic to $20,000. Next, U.K.-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares why one of the world’s most advanced economies could find itself with a shortage of fuel and food this winter, a problem exacerbated by Brexit and new rules on worker visas.

Finally, Stephanie Flanders gets a taste of how U.S. restaurants are coping with a shortage of both supplies and waiters. Celebrity restaurateur Willie Degel and HSBC trade economist Shanella Rajanayagam explain why supply shortages haven’t improved despite the accelerating reopening of the global economy.

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On this week's episode, former Obama administration official Wendy Cutler draws on her deep experience as a trade negotiator to offer her views on the tariff standoff between the U.S. and China. Guest host Tom Orlik, Bloomberg's chief economist, also gets an inside look at the talks from reporter Jenny Leonard in Washington.

Meanwhile, reporter Ivan Levingston sheds light on how Israel is desperate to fill jobs and is turning to a religious group that's also crucial to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

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Back in the days when bands like Led Zeppelin or The Who toured America, teens lined up overnight at ticket booths, hoping for great seats when the window opened. As time went on, the queue moved to the telephone and ultimately online. All the while, one company increased its grip on the live-event market. That company is Ticketmaster. 

But that could change thanks to Taylor Swift. Having waited years to see her live again, millions of fans were blocked by a combination of crushing demand, technical breakdown and the ascendance of bot-buyers who funnel tickets to a secondary market that charges sky-high prices. (In the 20th century, they were called scalpers.) As reporter Augusta Saraiva explains, this consumer calamity infuriated Swift’s fans, many of whom are swimming in cash saved up during the pandemic and desperate to spend it, regardless of the shaky economic landscape. This strange state affairs already has a name: “Swiftonomics.”

Lawmakers have seized on the popular outrage, uniting with fans against what many have long alleged to be Ticketmaster’s monopoly power. Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg industry analyst Eleanor Tyler about how the debacle, and its growing political exploitation, may be the tipping point for increased antitrust regulation that finally breaks Ticketmaster’s spell over the live event marketplace.

Then we dive headlong into a different thicket: how recycling doesn’t work as advertised. Consumers may feel better about mass consumption because there’s a blue bin for everything, but the hard truth is they’re fooling themselves. Most of the plastics, clothes and other items they seek to recycle wind up in landfills or dumped on the developing world. Along the shoreline of Accra, Ghana, what locals call “dead white people’s clothes” can be found in piles up to six feet high. 

Reporter Natalie Pearson explains that while fast-fashion chains like H&M and Zara encourage recycling, only a small fraction of their clothes will ever be remade into new items. Bloomberg recently surveyed the problem in Accra, where some 40% of the imported clothes end up as trash, and in the Indian state of Gujarat, where roughly one-third have no use. Finally, Flanders sits down with Bennington College Senior Fellow and visiting faculty member Judith Enck, a US Environmental Protection Agency official during the Obama administration, to discuss just how broken the recycling system is, and how it could be made to work better.

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The Deal, hosted by Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly, features intimate conversations with business titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs who reveal their investment philosophies, pivotal career moves and the ones that got away. From Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals, The Deal is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, Bloomberg Carplay, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch The Deal on Bloomberg Television, and Bloomberg Originals on YouTube.

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Wuhan will forever be known as the place where Covid-19 and lockdowns began. But the Chinese city also might be the best place to learn how to restart the global economy. On this week’s episode, Stephanie Flanders talks to Sharon Chen, Bloomberg’s Beijing bureau chief, about the lessons we can learn from Wuhan’s efforts to get life—and business—back on track, and why it pays to be in the instant noodle business right now.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik about his new book, “China: The Bubble that Never Pops.” From the financial system to real estate and banking, Western commentators always seem to be waiting for the world’s second-largest economy to blow up. So why hasn’t that happened yet? 

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Saudi Arabia may be best known for its vast supply of oil, but outside of that industry, Islamic tourism is one of the kingdom's biggest businesses. Hajj, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, as well as other Muslim pilgrimages throughout the year, have been driving growth in tourism, with a building boom to match. The country is seeking to remain a destination, while liberalizing its ultra-conservative rules such as the ban on female drivers. Scott is joined by Siraj Datoo, a Bloomberg editor in London, to discuss his recent hajj experience and the economics of the pilgrimage, as well as Donna Abu-Nasr, a Bloomberg reporter who covers the Middle Eastern economy. 

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Before Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico three weeks ago, the U.S. territory's economy was already in shambles, thanks in part to an overload of debt and decades of misguided policies. Now, after a terrible storm, things are much, much worse for the 3.4 million people there, and they're likely to stay that way for a while -- though measuring just how bad is the tricky part. Bloomberg reporter Jordyn Holman shares her recent experience reporting there, and Arthur MacEwan, an expert on the territory's economy, tells Scott how it got so bad in the first place. 

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How do you create a new country? For Catalonians looking for independence from Spain, secession can give you an emotional high, but what about the bills? Every nation needs a sense of identity and community, of shared heritage and geography. That won't feed people. There's revenue to be collected and bills to be paid, not to mention possibly issuing currency and creating a central bank. And don't forget about picking up the trash. Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo and Maxime Sbaihi explain the building blocks of statehood to Scott and Dan. 

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The biggest challenge refugees face is economic. A couple of financial market insiders are here to help and have recruited some of the biggest names on Wall Street. PIMCO's Greg Sharenow and Trailstone's Michelle Brouhard tell Dan and Scott about their foundation, Interfaith Refugee Project, and how to integrate refugees into the U.S. economic fabric. It's also personal: Greg describes his grandmother's flight from 1930s Germany through Panama.

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More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump. 

On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China.

And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai. 

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Seventeen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians remain scattered around the world, with no end to the war in sight. Many of those who fled are women and children. Unless they return when the fighting is over, some of the damage inflicted on their country's economy may become permanent.

On this season’s final episode of Stephanomics, Kyiv bureau chief Daryna Krasnolutska explains why women are so critical to Ukraine’s recovery. Most men age 18-60 aren’t allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women. Of them, some 2.8 million are working-age. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Economist Alexander Isakov, who estimates that Ukraine’s economy would lose $20 billion a year, or about 10% of its pre-war GDP, should none of them return. The government, which says it needs 4.5 million workers to achieve its reconstruction goals, is working on incentives, including narrowing the gender pay gap, to lure them back.

Flanders also chats with Marta Foresti, a senior fellow from the Overseas Development Institute in London, who discusses the importance of refugees (especially women) to their home economies, as well as her experience of working with returnees to Sierra Leone after its decade-long civil war.

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Whether the U.S. tips into recession this year or not, chances are you won't hear about it until well after it happens. That's because the decision on whether the economy is in a serious slump or merely having a bad day rests with a little-known group of academics who deliberate behind the scenes. Ten years after the economy entered the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the group's chair, Stanford University professor Robert Hall, gives Dan and Scott an inside look into how the panel makes its calls -- and shares his thoughts on whether another recession could be in store soon.

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On this episode of Voternomics, former UK diplomat Tom Fletcher discusses how the Labour Party leader’s first 30 days could define his premiership.  Plus, reporter Ellen Milligan discusses her story on Labour’s position on Brexit. Hosted by Allegra Stratton and reporters Alex Wickham and Ailbhe Rae. 

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A few decades ago, nobody really questioned vaccines. They were viewed as a standard part of staying healthy and safe. Today, the number of people questioning vaccines risks prolonging a pandemic that has already killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. How we got to this moment didn’t start with the rollout of vaccines or in March 2020, or even with the election of Donald Trump. Our confidence in vaccines, often isn't even about vaccines. It’s about trust. And that trust has been eroding for a long time. Doubt, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis podcast, looks at the forces that have been breaking down that trust. We'll trace the rise of vaccine skepticism in America to show how we got here — and where we’re going. Doubt launches on March 23. Subscribe to Prognosis today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Mid-April is when the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their spring meetings, where finance ministers and central bankers gather to exchange ideas on keeping global growth intact. This year, the meetings will be virtual, and the discussions less about growth and more about avoiding an economic abyss.

Gita Gopinath, in her second year as the IMF’s chief economist, is projecting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression. She talks with Stephanie Flanders about what the international community needs to do now and what lessons policymakers should take away from the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg economy reporter Catherine Bosley about why Germany is patting itself on the back for a history of budgetary stinginess.

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On this special episode of Voternomics, Tim O’Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion and author of TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald, and Bloomberg Big Take podcast host, David Gura join host Stephanie Flanders to discuss the US presidential debate on Thursday night, including President Joe Biden’s poor performance, Donald Trump’s repeated falsehoods, the lack of fact-checking and how it all will shape the future of the race.

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Mexico just didn't see it coming. The free-trade backlash and anti-Mexican rhetoric that helped fuel Donald Trump's rise came as a surprise to officials and executives in the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Now they are scrambling to save not just NAFTA, but an entire economic model based around global supply chains and ever closer ties with the U.S. Thrown into the mix are elections in Mexico that could propel their own populists into the presidency and congress. Shannon O'Neil from the Council on Foreign Relations explains the stakes to Dan and Scott. Intriguing footnote: Maybe the NAFTA debate is really about China. 

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By picking Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief, President Donald Trump is making a historic gamble that his five predecessors did not: appointing a new leader of the central bank in his first term instead of retaining the existing one. That move could have massive ramifications for the U.S. and global economies. But how did the Fed get so powerful? And how powerful is it really? Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, joins Scott and guest host Chris Condon, a Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg, for a deep dive into the Fed's history and how Powell fits in. 

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Figuring out the global economy has always involved looking at the data. But only in recent years has big data, such as that contained in satellite imagery, become a factor in helping understand what's going on. One place where it's particularly useful is China, where official figures are far less comprehensive than in the U.S. and most other developed nations. It's also provided badly-needed insight into poverty across Africa. Scott and Dan get the scoop from UC-Berkeley professor Joshua Blumenstock and Bloomberg China economy editor Jeff Kearns. 

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Benchmark takes the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and re-runs an episode from March. Post-industrial Midwestern America helped propel Donald Trump to the nation's top job. You've heard that a hundred times. But did you hear about St Louis? A wave of Bosnian refugees, many of them Muslim, arrive in the city, starting in the mid-1990s. The result: a surge in business and job creation, revitalization of the community and help in the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy. Sadik Kukic tells Dan and Michelle about his journey from Balkan concentration camps to a pillar of the local community: He's now president of the Bosnian Chamber of Commerce. What could be more American?

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For many women and an increasing number of men, it's been hard to get a job again if you take some time off for family reasons and have a long gap on your resume. But that's starting to change in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is at the lowest in almost 17 years. With the labor market getting tighter, companies are looking at potential workers they previously might not have considered. Carol Fishman Cohen, a consultant who helps companies develop programs for returning workers, shares her story of returning to work after having four children and talks about how she is getting companies to take a look at more workers like her. Bloomberg reporter Craig Torres also joins to explain the trend to Dan and Scott. 

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This week, we try to understand a possible "Mar-a-Lago Accord" and the views of Stephen Miran, nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Host Stephanie Flanders is joined by Shawn Donnan, senior writer for economics with Bloomberg, and Mark Sobel, the US chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

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Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who died this week at age 92, was an imposing public figure—in height as well as stature.

He was best known for his bold moves in the U.S. war against inflation, and for his dedication to public service. But there was more to the man, as Bloomberg Markets editor Christine Harper discovered as she worked with Volcker to co-write his 2018 memoir, “Keeping At It.”

Harper joins host Stephanie Flanders to share her memories and observations of Volcker’s humor, hobbies and patience.

Also this week, Stephanomics explores what’s ailing India, which this year lost its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Moreover, any chance of regaining that crown looks like it’s slipping away, despite the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. One reason: The gem and jewelry industry, which accounts for almost 7% of India’s economy, is suffering thanks to external forces like the U.S.-China trade war as well as a possible setback from the Indian government itself.

Anirban Nag reports from Mumbai on the sector, while Flanders digs deeper into the Modi agenda with Bloomberg economist Abhishek Gupta.

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Paul Volcker made his mark as the inflation-defeating chairman of the Federal Reserve. Now at age 91, he's just published a new memoir called "Keeping At It." His collaborator happens to be Bloomberg Markets editor Christine Harper, who shares the inside story of what it was like to work with him.

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How do you restart the global economy following a coronavirus-induced lockdown? China is the test case, and getting workers back to work is proving a lot easier than getting them to shop or patronize restaurants. On this week’s episode, Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Beijing bureau chief Sharon Chen about her recent visit to Wuhan, the starting point of the pandemic, and her subsequent 14-day quarantine when she returned home.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg chief Europe economist Jamie Rush about how lifting restrictions will translate into increased economic output. Then, in an excerpt from a panel discussion, former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has some strong words about the Group of 20’s response to the pandemic, along with inflation targeting and a few other topics.

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The early days of the pandemic saw a scramble to unleash massive monetary and fiscal bailouts to counter the fallout of a global health crisis and the shutdowns intended to mitigate its damage. Almost a year and a half later, times have changed in many countries, and so has the economic landscape. But are policymakers moving fast enough to unwind their emergency measures?

On this week's podcast Stephanie Flanders is joined by two of the biggest names in the financial world—billionaire investor Ray Dalio and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who is perhaps the loudest voice of warning when it comes to inflation. Hear their opinions on just how hot the U.S. economy is running, where they think bubbles are building and why they contend that government officials need to take the threat of inflation seriously, and do so right now.

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On this special Monday episode, White House national security adviser for economics Daleep Singh explains how America is seeking to maintain global influence. Bloomberg senior editor Ruchi Bhatia discusses the likely victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in India’s election and what it means for the world’s fastest-growing major economy. And Stephanie and Allegra discuss the election results in South Africa and Mexico. 

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Democratic powers in Europe, as well as Japan and Australia could be left out on a limb should Donald Trump win the US presidential election in November, cable news host and author Fareed Zakaria tells Adrian Wooldridge in this episode of Voternomics. He says the former president and convicted felon may opt for a policy of protectionism instead of America’s long-standing practice of internationalism—all as US political influence continues to wane.  

Zakaria, host of the CNN program GPS, contends the world is experiencing a backlash to globalization similar to one in the 1920s—as set out in his new book, Age of Revolutions, which makes Wooldridge’s summer reading list. This dynamic is made all the more stark by Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party into an anti-immigrant, trade-skeptic entity, he says. 

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