The Writ Podcast (Éric Grenier)

The Ontario Liberals are looking for a new leader. Four potential candidates from within their provincial and federal ranks have expressed an interest.

Also thinking about it? Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario.

That’s because a group of Ontario Liberals think they’d be better off with Schreiner and have said so in a public letter. It’s a bizarre and unprecedented move for some from a party that governed as recently as 2018 to see a saviour in the leader of a party who has never won more than a single seat.

It’s not the only bit of news coming out of Queen’s Park, as the Ontario New Democrats have named their new leader in Marit Stiles and Premier Doug Ford is considering his response to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s offer of new healthcare funding.

There’s lots to chat about in Ontario politics, so joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and John Michael McGrath, writer at TVO.org and co-host of the ONpoli podcast with Steve Paikin.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

From billions of dollars in new healthcare spending to what seems like an endless stream of Chinese balloons and/or extraterrestrial incursions into Canadian airspace, there’s plenty of news to discuss in federal politics.

Plus, there’s that bombshell resignation of John Tory in Toronto.

So, joining me to chat about it all this week is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot of The Globe and Mail.

(My apologies for the poorer audio quality than usual in this episode.)

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The polls haven’t been in agreement lately, so where do things really stand?

What role does health care play in public opinion and politics — both at the federal and provincial levels?

How are things looking ahead of Alberta’s provincial election, and what about those reports about Chinese interference in the 2021 federal vote?

Joining me to tackle all of these questions are three party pollsters, Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke.

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in the prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including the NDP's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

With an election only a few months away, this week’s Alberta budget can’t be anything but an election budget. Will Premier Danielle Smith’s plan for the province help her win in May, or does it provide an opening for Rachel Notley and her New Democrats?

To break down what the budget means for Alberta and the election, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Trevor Tombe, professor of economics at the University of Calgary.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Canada’s smallest province wasn’t supposed to hold its next election until the fall, but earlier this week Premier Dennis King pulled the plug on his government and set April 3 as the date for Prince Edward Island’s provincial election.

There’s plenty to watch as this campaign unfolds. Will King’s gamble pay off for his Progressive Conservatives? Can the Greens repeat their breakthrough from 2019 that catapulted them to official opposition status for the first time anywhere in Canada? And will the Liberal brand take another hit if the party finishes in third place again?

Joining me this week to setup this campaign are Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News, and Stuart Neatby, political reporter for the Charlottetown Guardian and the Saltwire Network.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Has the Chinese election interference moved the dial in the polls? And what are each party’s incentives (or disincentives) in forcing an election this spring?

What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island’s campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week?

Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L’actualité and POLITICO Canada) is back on the podcast this week to chat with me about all this and everything in between.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Will Joe Biden’s visit to Ottawa this week be his last as U.S. president?

With the 2024 election looming, it is still an open question whether or not Biden will run again as the Democratic nominee. If he does, who will be his opponent? And, if it is Donald Trump again, can he beat him a second time?

Those are questions for the future. For now, the focus will be on the state of U.S.-Canada relations, and what might come out of Biden’s visit.

To tackle both where things stand now and where they could stand next year, I’m joined this week by Alex Panetta, Washington, D.C. correspondent for the CBC.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Dennis King’s Progressive Conservatives kicked off the Prince Edward Island election campaign with a big lead in the polls, seemingly leaving the only real battle to be between Peter Bevan-Baker’s Greens and Sharon Cameron’s Liberals for official opposition status.

But are King’s PCs still on track for a big majority win, maybe even a sweep? Or did any of the campaign’s controversies or this past week’s leaders debate change the dial?

Back to wrap this campaign is Stuart Neatby, political reporter for the Charlottetown Guardian and the Saltwire Network.

My livestream of the results will be starting on Monday at 6 PM Eastern / 7 PM Atlantic. You will find it here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What should we make of the recommendation from Elections Ontario to ban the publication of polls in the last two weeks of an election campaign?

And the Prince Edward Island election earlier this week has got me thinking about the links between provincial and federal politics. How do voters separate, if it all, their partisan attachment to parties at the two levels of government?

The party pollsters are back to discuss.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in the prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including the NDP's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

It’s been 10 years since Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.

That not only makes him one of today’s longest-serving party leaders in the country, it also puts him on a short list of historic Liberal leaders: only Lester Pearson, Jean Chrétien, Pierre Trudeau, Mackenzie King and Wilfrid Laurier have held the job longer than Justin Trudeau has.

He says he will lead the Liberals into the next election, but a decade is already more than enough time to leave a mark. To discuss Trudeau’s legacy to date, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry, who wrote a book on the first years of Trudeau’s time in office, and Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Did you know that Toronto is a big city? It’s true! If it were a province, it would rank fifth on the list. More people live in Toronto than in all of Atlantic Canada or in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

And on June 26, Torontonians will be going to the polls in the biggest byelection in Canadian history.

Voters will have lots of options for John Tory’s replacement, as there are dozens of candidates on the ballot. The list of real contenders is shorter — but still really long.

To weed out the pretenders from the contenders, I’m joined this week by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

With just days to go before the starting pistol goes off on Alberta’s campaign, I’m joined this week by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to break down where things stand in this hotly-contested election.

We also chat about some other recent news, including François Legault’s decision to go back on his promise of a third link between Quebec City and Lévis for motorists, the results of the New Brunswick byelections, the re-branding of the B.C. Liberals and is it majority or bust for Pierre Poilievre?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The first week of the Alberta election campaign is nearly over — and it’s been off to a slow start. So, who is coming out ahead in the early going and just how engaged are voters in this tight contest?

To break down Week 1, I’m joined by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Lisa Young, professor of political science at the University of Calgary and author of the What Now?!? newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party was supposed to end the split of the right in Alberta’s politics. But while the United Conservative Party has successfully prevented another right-of-centre party from rising to prominence in the province, it hasn’t stopped divisions forming within its own organization.

Joining me this week on the podcast is the CBC’s Jason Markusoff, who has looked into the rise of the Take Back Alberta group that has tried to influence the direction of the UCP from the inside.

What does this mean for the future of the United Conservatives — and for Danielle Smith, win or lose in Alberta’s election on May 29?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

There will be four federal byelections on June 19 in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, all four of them solid seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.

But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount.

So, what should we expect in these byelections? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada is back to discuss these four races, as well as to set some over/under lines to watch on byelection night!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We’re down to the final days of Alberta’s election campaign and it could be close. Will Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives hold on for re-election, or will Rachel Notley’s New Democrats mount a comeback?

First, I’m joined by The Globe and Mail’s Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me.

Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for some live analysis of the results as the votes are counted.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives secured a majority government in Monday’s Alberta election, defeating Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. How did the UCP’s win come about, what does it mean for politics in Alberta and what are the implications for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre?

Separately, what are the politics surrounding David Johnston’s inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections?

Back on the podcast to break it all down, I’m joined by the political pollsters: Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke.

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

With just a few weeks to go before Toronto chooses its next mayor, the polls are giving a big lead to Olivia Chow, former NDP MP and the third-place finisher in 2014’s mayoral race.

So, is this election Olivia Chow’s to lose?

To set up this last stage of the mayoral campaign, I’m joined again by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Polls are ubiquitous in Canadian election campaigns, but that wasn’t always the case. Before political polling arrived in the 1940s, journalists and politicians had to go about gauging public opinion differently. But once polls made their way here, they became an indispensable part of Canadian politics.

Joining me this week to tell the story of the development of polling in Canada is Christopher Adams, rector of St. Paul’s College and adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba. Chris has worked in the industry and is now working on a history of polling.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

With Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day now upon us, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a little game — a draft of Quebec’s best (and most notorious?) premiers!

Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him?

After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team!

With the House of Commons adjourned for the summer, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is now heading into the back half of its four year mandate. Where do things stand at this midway point, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives move ahead in the polls and Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats prop up the Liberals in the minority parliament?

Joining me this week to take stock of the state of federal politics nearly two years after the last election is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Caucus revolts, ministerial resignations, cabinet shuffles, leadership challenges and the threat of an early election — you don’t need to go much further than New Brunswick to get your fill of political drama.

Premier Blaine Higgs has been facing down opponents within his caucus and within his party over the last few weeks. The spark was a proposed change to laws regarding LGBTQ students but the turmoil goes far deeper than that, as some members of his Progressive Conservative government and party denounce his top-down, autocratic style. A few of the renegades were shuffled out of cabinet but a leadership challenge is in the works.

It isn’t clear how much longer this can go on without the pressure release of an election.

To try to explain what’s happening, I’m joined this week by Michelle LeBlanc, journalist with Radio-Canada Acadie, and Jacques Poitras, New Brunswick provincial affairs reporter for the CBC.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

It’s the height of summer and that isn’t always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!):

* What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?

* Will there be a federal election in 2023?

* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?

* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?

* What were the worst calls Philippe and I ever made?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Two hotly-contested byelections and a Liberal leadership race that is heating up — politics in Ontario isn’t taking a break for the summer!

So, joining me to break down all the latest from the OLP leadership contest and what to watch in the upcoming byelections in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer.

Plus: Join me at 9 PM on July 27 for a livestream of the byelection results as they come in. You can find the livestream here. See you there!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t just shuffle his cabinet — he overhauled it, replacing seven ministers and changing the roles of most of the others.

A simple refresh ahead of the next election or an admission that things weren’t working?

To discuss what it all means, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

On Thursday, three byelections will answer two questions in Saskatchewan politics:

1) Are cracks in the conservative coalition that makes up the governing Saskatchewan Party starting to form?

2) Will the Saskatchewan New Democrats show any signs that they can win the kind of seats they need if they are to ever return to power?

To help set up the three provincial byelections in Regina Walsh Acres, Regina Coronation Park and Lumsden-Morse, I’m joined this week by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.

LIVESTREAM: Join me and Philippe J. Fournier for a livestream of these Saskatchewan byelection results on August 10, 8 PM CT / 10 PM ET. You’ll find the livestream here.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

With less than two months to go before election day in Manitoba, the polls are suggesting the race could be neck-and-neck between Heather Stefanson’s governing Progressive Conservatives and the opposition New Democrats under Wab Kinew.

To help set us up for the Manitoba election campaign which is only weeks away from officially getting started, I’m joined this week by Niigaan Sinclair and Dan Lett, hosts of the Niigaan and the Lone Ranger podcast. You can check out their podcast here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has used the summer to try a new look and launch a new ad campaign designed to introduce him to voters — will it work, and what is it trying to achieve?

Plus, the fall political season is fast approaching. So what do each of the parties have to do in the coming months as politics start to heat up again in Ottawa?

To answer these questions, two-thirds of the political pollster panel has been re-convened and I’m joined by Dan Arnold and Andrew Enns. (James Valcke was unable to join us this week.)

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

When the cameras get switched off in the House of Commons, the work of an MP doesn’t stop — and that includes over the summer months when politics might be the furthest thing from anyone’s mind.

To give us an idea of what life is like for an MP away from Parliament Hill, I’m joined this week by two Members of Parliament: Dan Albas, Conservative MP for the B.C. riding of Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola, and Greg Fergus, Liberal MP for the Quebec seat of Hull–Aylmer.

(Note that this episode was recorded a week ago, before wildfires hit the Kelowna region.)

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

It’s a break week here at The Writ, but things are about to get pretty busy this fall season with the launch of two new podcasts: The Numbers and Les chiffres!

Philippe J. Fournier and I are really excited to start these two new projects, and we hope that you’ll be just as excited for them as we are. You can find more information about The Numbers and Les chiffres at our website here.

We also wrote some introductory posts for The Numbers and Les chiffres that you might want to check out.

Take a listen to find out what this means for subscribers to The Writ and listeners to The Writ Podcast — but don’t worry, The Writ Podcast isn’t going anywhere! It’ll move to a bi-weekly schedule, and in the off weeks you’ll get a new episode of The Numbers in your feed.

But you’ll also want to follow The Numbers and Les chiffres in their own feeds in order not to miss anything. In addition to being available on our Patreon site, here’s where you can find these two new podcasts on other apps:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

In this first episode of The Numbers, a collaboration between myself and Philippe J. Fournier, we do a rundown of the latest federal polling and what it means for the three major parties. We also discuss the Conservative convention, the impact of the Greenbelt controversy on the Ontario PCs, the early days of the Manitoba election and the upcoming provincial byelection in Jean-Talon.

We then answer some listener questions and Philippe subjects me to a little quiz.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a Patron at our Patreon site here.

If you want to add The Numbers (which will have episodes out every week, with only every second episode hitting The Writ Podcast’s feed) and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Manitoba’s election campaign is underway and is setting up to be a close contest between Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives and Wab Kinew’s New Democrats — so close, in fact, that Dougald Lamont’s Liberals could end up with the balance of power.

To discuss this first stage of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders, associate professor in the department of political science at Brandon University.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Don’t miss the latest episode of The Numbers podcast, out every Thursday for Patrons and every Friday for everyone else via Apple Podcast, Spotify and wherever else you get your podcasts.

We discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the members of the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a Patron at our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers (which has episodes out every week, with only every second episode hitting The Writ Podcast’s feed) and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

With just days to go before the Manitoba election comes to a close, the polls suggest it could be Wab Kinew and the NDP’s to lose. But can Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives hold on to win a third consecutive victory?

To discuss these final stages of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders, associate professor in the department of political science at Brandon University.

Join me for a livestream of the Manitoba election results on Tuesday, starting at 8 PM CT / 9 PM ET. You’ll be able to find the livestream here.

And don’t miss the latest episode of The Numbers podcast, out every Thursday for Patrons and every Friday for everyone via Apple Podcast, Spotify and wherever else you get your podcasts.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Starting next week, every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in The Writ Podcast feed) will be for members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

It’s been an eventful few weeks since Parliament returned, as foreign affairs have injected themselves into our domestic politics. And last week, Manitoba held a historic election that could have some lessons for parties outside of the province.

To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

And if you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

There has been a lot of movement in the polls over the last few months. But who are the people behind those numbers?

Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data. He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coalition looks like today.

(If you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. 

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

The Liberals have held sway in Newfoundland and Labrador ever since the federal and provincial parties won the elections of 2015. But that could be changing. The latest polls suggest Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives might turn the province blue, and while Premier Andrew Furey’s Liberals are still narrowly ahead in provincial voting intentions, they now face a new challenger as the opposition PCs have a new leader.

Joining me this week to chat about the political scene in Newfoundland and Labrador is Tim Powers, chairperson at Summa Strategies, and Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter in St. John’s.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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This weekend, voting will start for the Ontario Liberal leadership as the contest between Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi and Ted Hsu reaches its final stage. The result will be announced on December 2. But before the winner is revealed, voting will also take place in the riding of Kitchener Centre, where a provincial byelection is scheduled for November 30.

Joining me this week to break down all the latest in Ontario politics are Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and Jessica Smith Cross, editor-in-chief at The Trillium.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here.

Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province?

This week, I’m joined again by a panel of season political pollsters.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew?

We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back.

In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom before turning things around.

So, what did we learn about each of the major parties in 2023 and what questions about them are we waiting to be answered in 2024?

To answer that, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!

Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me for last week's Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns.

So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The Writ Podcast. To help me do that this week, I’m join by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, B.C., Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, Saskatchewan, and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia?

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who used to be the dominant force in Atlantic Canada.

To update us on the latest in provincial and federal politics in their two provinces, I’m joined this week by Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter, and Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News.

(If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and I put Philippe to the test with another Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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This week on The Writ Podcast, I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. We also set expectations for the upcoming byelection in Durham.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chatted about the Liberals’ polling woes and the latest survey that puts the Saskatchewan NDP in first place. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the right in B.C. and the linguistic split in New Brunswick. Then, Philippe quizzes me on some provincial premiers.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign?

On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.

Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He’s now host of the iPolitics podcast, On Background with Fred DeLorey, and partner at NorthStar Public Affairs. 

Melissa Cotton spent over 20 years as a volunteer and staffer for the Liberal Party and provincially. She has managed or worked on multiple local election and by-election campaigns and served in several central campaign war rooms.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I broke down the latest federal, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada polls and set our over/under lines for the Durham byelection.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8:30 PM Eastern for our livestream of the Durham byelection results on YouTube.

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests my knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Que restera-t-il du PLC au Québec ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Pallas Data pour le Québec. Les appuis aux PQ ont-ils plafonné ? La CAQ a-t-elle freiné sa glissade ?  Nous décortiquons ensuite les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec qui ont mesuré une baisse importante des appuis aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Que resterait-il du PLC au Québec si ces chiffres devaient se concrétiser ? Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric sur des personnalités politiques québécoises. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls, so I invited David back again on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time into the demographics of the Canadian electorate.

Using a compilation of multiple polls conducted over the last few months, we look at age, gender, education and occupational splits in voting intentions and whether there are any regional differences in each party’s voter profiles. We also discuss who those people are who have switched from one party to another and just what makes them tick.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the entry of Naheed Nenshi into the Alberta NDP leadership race. We also chat about the latest national polls, how the premiers are faring and answer listener questions, including on Conservative seat prospects in Quebec and on Vancouver Island.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts me to the test with The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: François Legault est-il devenu un boulet pour son parti ? Cette semaine, Philippe et moi discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le PQ a creusé davantage l'écart avec la CAQ et le taux de satisfaction du gouvernement continue de chuter. Sera-t-il possible pour la CAQ de remonter la pente et, pour y arriver, aura-t-elle besoin d'un changement de chef ? Nous décortiquons aussi les chiffres fédéraux du sondage, en particulier les données pour la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Le Bloc aurait-il dépassé les conservateurs à Québec ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi.

It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already over.

To break it all down, I’m joined this week by two people who know the Alberta NDP very well. Leah Ward is vice president at Wellington Advocacy and Cheryl Oates is co-host of The Discourse podcast, and both previously served as director of communications for Rachel Notley.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the last week’s national polls, as well as some new numbers out of Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, in particular on the Alberta NDP leadership race.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex?

In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for me.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Les Gaspésiens triomphent (malgré leur nombre) Philippe et moi discutent de l'abandon du projet de redécoupage de la carte électorale au Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal garderont leurs sièges, alors que les Laurentides et le Centre-du-Québec continueront d'être sous-représentés. Le gouvernement a-t-il manqué de courage dans ce dossier ? Nous discutons ensuite des derniers chiffres fédéraux de Léger au Québec et ailleurs au pays, puis nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et auditeurs. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What’s behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial?

Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the New Democrats losing three veteran MPs who won’t run in the next election, what’s the state of the NDP?

To break it all down, the political pollsters are back.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about about fresh national polling numbers that suggest the pre-budget rollout the Liberals have embarked upon has not yet had an impact on public opinion. We also discuss the retirement of three veteran NDP MPs and some new poll numbers out of British Columbia and Alberta.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Le troisième référendum : une « certitude » Philippe et Éric discutent du discours de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon lors du conseil national du Parti québécois, lors duquel il a affirmé qu'il y aura assurément un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avant la fin de la décennie. Était-ce une bonne stratégie ? Est-ce que l'aiguille des sondages bougera suite à ce discours (d'un côté comme de l'autre) ? Nous discutons ensuite du départ du whip de la CAQ, Éric Lefebvre, qui portera les couleurs du Parti conservateur de Pierre Poilievre aux prochaines élections fédérales. Est-ce que d'autres députés caquistes pourraient être tentés de faire le saut dans la prochaine année ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don’t officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh hasn’t committed to supporting it. What’s behind his party’s will-they-or-won’t-they dance?

Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the budget to pass to avoid an election. They also hope it will start a positive trend that will help them close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But early indications are that it isn’t having the desired effect — at least not yet.

To break down the politics of the budget and where things go from here, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the latest numbers on how Canadians are reacting to the budget. We also delve into some polling controversy in Quebec where two different polls report two very different situations in the province.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election.

In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on me in my weakened state in this week's edition of The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Québec solidaire en désarroi Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages au Québec, de l'avance du Parti québécois et des appuis au PLQ chez les communautés anglophones et allophones au Québec. De plus, nous analysons la démission de la co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire, Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Est-ce que Québec solidaire devra effectuer des réformes à l'interne pour espérer une croissance de ses appuis ? Les membres de QS accepteront-ils des tels changements ? Nous discutons ensuite des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui nous indiquent que l'écart entre les libéraux et conservateurs semble se creuser davantage. Selon Léger, Abacus Data et Nanos, le PCC mène maintenant par 20 points (et plus) au pays. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party’s polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip.

What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to the next provincial campaign in 2026?

To explain the state of Ontario politics today, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji, author of Queen’s Park Observer, and John Michael McGrath, writer and co-host of the #onpoli podcast for TVO.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we try to figure what is going on in British Columbia as more and more polls show the B.C. Conservatives closing the gap with (or even beating) David Eby's NDP. We also break down the results of last week's two provincial byelections in Ontario. In the mailbag, we tackle the polling woes of Justin Trudeau's Liberals and more. Finally, Philippe has another Quiz this week — though one that's a tad easier than last week's.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Cette semaine au balado, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October’s provincial election.

But Tuxedo won’t be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Transcona in the next few months. The federal NDP, not nearly as buoyant in the polls as their provincial cousins, could have a fight on its hands to hold off the Conservatives in this seat.

To discuss the first months of Wab Kinew’s government and the upcoming electoral contests taking place in Winnipeg, as well as how the city is shaping up ahead of the 2025 federal election, I’m joined by Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we chat about the upcoming byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's and what's at stake for the Liberals in what has traditionally been a safe seat. We also discuss the results in the Pictou West byelection in Nova Scotia, the upcoming Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and new polls out of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Des congrès, des congrès partout Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias. Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à trois au Québec entre le Bloc, les libéraux et les conservateurs, mais est-ce réellement la tendance actuelle? Nous décortiquons les plus récentes données. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad’s party.

It’s a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election in October, so this week I’m joined by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, to break it all down.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we talk about the news out of Ottawa on the reduction in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, as well as a new report on foreign interference. Will anything move the polls? Plus, with two floor-crossings in British Columbia, is B.C. United finished? We also chat about new provincial polls out of Quebec and Alberta, and answer questions from the mailbag. To close, Philippe tests me with a competition-level Quiz.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à Québec Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond.

Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.

For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives?

To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including:

* Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?

* Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?

* Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?

* Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!

This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.

In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.

Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.

(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)

This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand?

On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to hold elections in the coming months.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose?

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.

In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition.

But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October?

On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, to look ahead to Saskatchewan’s upcoming campaign.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I discuss the latest poll showing the Conservatives narrowly ahead in Quebec. We also chat about a new poll from British Columbia and the launch of the Canadian Future Party, we answer listener questions and put our wits to the test with a Quiz!

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.

We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Une vraie course au PLQ ? Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ? Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?

The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn’t wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We’ll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.

In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible.

But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.

To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I’m joined this week by the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?

We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive.

To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman, legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, we break down some of the latest federal polls and what they might mean for election timing. Then, we delve into the three provincial campaigns in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, where polls raise more questions than they do provide answers about who is going to win. We also look at the Ontario byelection results in Bay of Quinte.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.

In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call.

Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.

THE NUMBERS: This week’s members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here. We’ll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.

We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.

Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?

We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?

Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn’t going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn’t a new episode of The Writ Podcast, you’ll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat.

What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election?

The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week’s episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you’d like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.

We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?

We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?

On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?

We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.

Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here?

There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

* Apple Podcasts

* Spotify

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* Podcast Addict

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* RSS Feed

Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet?

Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk?

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We’re apparently only days away from an election call and the polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals have taken the pole position ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. So, what should we make of these emerging trends and how should they inform each party’s strategy heading into this campaign?

Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks?

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Mark Carney kicked off Canada’s election campaign on Sunday and already parties are discovering that their best laid plans can go awry very quickly. So, what goes on behind the scenes when parties draw up their strategies for a campaign and what happens when they have to react to the unexpected?

Throughout this election, I’ll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and help make some sense of just what is happening out on the hustings.

Vandana Kattar was the director of operations, outreach and planning for former prime minister Justin Trudeau and was one of the co-hosts of the Race to Replace podcast during the past Liberal leadership contest.

Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.

Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race?

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.