The Loonie Hour (Steve Saretsky)

Russia has officially invaded Ukraine. What does this mean for markets and for Canada? Is this the air cover central banks were looking for? The gents also weigh in on the Trudeau pivot, removing the emergency act.

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National house prices slid lower in October, bringing the total price decline to 15% since peaking earlier this year. Some lenders are starting to lay off staff as mortgage applications dry up. While inflation has peaked, recent data suggests it remains quite sticky at 6.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the lads discuss the ongoing fraud story of FTX.

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Small businesses in Canada have never been more downbeat. Tariffs hit the auto sector hard. Is a recession part of the Trump fiscal plan? Bond yields push higher in Europe. Concern around job losses growing. 

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Alberta refuses to sign on with Trudeau's proposed retaliatory tariffs. Toronto new condo sales hit 28 year lows as property taxes surge. Is Mark Carney the next prime minister already? US CPI cools, bringing relief to the bond market. 

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For the first time since 2018 the Bank of Canada has begun raising interest rates. In this weeks show we analyze the move and make predictions on the path of rate increases moving forward. We also chat about the war in Ukraine and how it is adding to inflationary pressures and a huge bull run for commodities.

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We discuss the implications of the turmoil in the middle east from a markets perspective. The IMF predicts Canada to have the largest economic growth in the G7 next year. US CPI remains sticky, securing central banks to hold rates. Bond volatility continues unabated.

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The Federal government is back from their housing retreat with no real changes other than a further review into foreign student loopholes. Regional bank stocks are tumbling once again. Jackson Hole, hawkish fed? Fixed mortgage rates back on the climb AGAIN.

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We are joined by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to discuss trade negotiations, the currency, and our natural resources. The Bank of Canada cuts rates again. Policy makers preparing for helicopter money, and more global uncertainty. 

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Tiff Macklem says more rate hikes are coming and the job is not done yet. When was the last time a central bank engineered a soft landing? We are nearing a financial mishap. What do Canada's smartest housing people think about the future of the Real Estate market?

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Rate hikes have only hit one third of all mortgages outstanding. Scotiabank says their customers are pulling back on discretionary spending. Is the Fed going to hike again next month? Germany enters a recession. Debt ceiling hysteria reaches a tipping point. 

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Dr. Sylvain Charlebois aka The Food Professor joins the podcast to discuss food inflation hitting Canadian wallets. His Battle with the Bank of Canada, and the impacts of the carbon tax. Keith and Steve then discuss the recession playbook. US CPI, jobless claims and the bond trade. Are we at a turning point?

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The Loonie Hour is live in Toronto on November 30th! Join us for drinks, appetizers, a live podcast, and Q&A session!

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More rate hikes from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England. Are markets overly optimistic about the future of interest rates? Is the Canadian housing market nearing a bottom? We have Ron Butler join us for a guest interview to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Canadian mortgage market.

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National home prices continue to slide lower, now down 16% since peaking in March. US headline inflation continues to move lower but the Fed ain't pivoting! More rate hikes from the US, Europe and England this week. Could passive investors see little to no returns for several decades?

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Home sales in Vancouver & Toronto plummet. Policy makers are doubling down on bad policy. Stories of financial stress are mounting. ISM services index falls to levels last seen during the depths of the pandemic. The presidential election heats up. 

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The yield curve is flattening which is pointing towards possible recession signals ahead. Meanwhile, Rich lays out the bullish thesis for oil and the possible impacts on the Calgary housing market. Keith provides an overview of the tensions brewing in Ukraine.

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US jobs numbers come in hotter than expected, boosting bond yields higher. Jerome Powell speaks on 60 minutes interview. Canadians could be jailed for promoting the benefits of oil and gas. China is experiencing deflation, deepening financial woes. Commercial property bust leaks into Europe. 

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Bank of Canada cuts rates again citing new crisis, and expects higher prices. Mark Carney is anointed the next Prime Minister. The carbon tax isn't going away. The oil & gas emissions cap is expected to kill 50,000 jobs. Doug Ford threatens to turn off the power. 

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US inflation has made the turn and is now trending lower, but will it fall enough to allow central banks to pivot? Markets are ripping on potentially false hopes. Commodities continue to look favourable over the medium term, and more bearish predictions for the Canadian housing market.

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The Fed raised rates another 75bps and says there is still work to be done. Keith makes the case for a hard landing in the months ahead. Big tech stocks continue to get crushed. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has promised to ramp up immigration targets to 500,000 by 2025, with part of the objective to support the housing market. Affordable housing be damned!

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Inflation remains sticky but the Fed will still cut. Could this spark a second wave of inflation? Guest Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap suggests the stock market is on the cusp of a pull-back. Trading sentiment tops and bottoms. The striking similarities between US stocks and Canadian housing. Property taxes surge in Canadian cities.

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Canada's GDP surprises to the upside, largely on the back of a massive population boom that is masking a lack of productivity growth. This is putting undue pressure on the Bank of Canada, with markets now expecting the BoC to move once again. US jobs data provides a murky outlook. Commodities pointing to recession. And special guest Professor Michael Giest joins us to discuss the controversial Bill C-11 censorship bill. 

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The Federal Government announced its budget and it was a doozy. More inflationary spending, including money for groceries. The Bank of Canada will have its work cut out for them as there are also signs that the housing market is showing signs of strengthening. Credit spreads suggest there are still issues under the hood within financial markets.

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Canada's immigration demise was years in the making. Trump gets back to the White House, what are the market implications? Stocks, crypto and bond yields surge higher. The Federal government continues to punish the Oil & gas sector, implementing defacto production caps. 

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The Bank of Canada held rates again. Markets are expecting 100bps of rate cuts in 2024. Bond yields continue to tumble. Will housing perk up? Keep an eye on US non-farm payrolls. COP 28 brings big promises and big problems for Canadian oil and gas. Who is the most dangerous man in Canada?

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Canada's oil and gas sector could flourish, enriching the lives of all Canadians while lowering global emissions, the only thing stopping it is politics according to this weeks special guest Andrew Haynes. Andrew is a 20 year expert in the energy sector. Meanwhile, the US Fed continues to push rates higher despite banking issues. Canadian population growth exceeded one million last year. Billions of commercial loans coming due could create more issues for smaller banks.

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Bond yields rising as central banks cut rates. Canadian housing faces rising defaults in new construction space. China’s bond market flashes red, awaiting giant stimulus.

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Tiff Macklem is on deck next week. Bitcoin hits record highs in Canadian dollars. Financial conditions are easing, pushing US equities and inflation higher. Canadian banks report earnings, the mortgage renewal wall is still a very big problem. GDP per capita declines for the sixth straight quarter. 

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Twinkies are on the line, as the gents place their wagers for the Bank of Canada next week. A surprise miss on Q2 GDP in Canada suggests further weakness for Q3. No Fed pivot coming suggests more pain ahead as the bear market rally fades.

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Local governments raising taxes as interest payments rise and tax revenues fall. Bond market contagion deepens as yields surge higher. Canadian mortgage renewals becoming a bigger problem. Business and consumer sentiment tumbles. Household savings are depleted.

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Mortgage rates are ripping, what happens when they hit 4% here in Canada? Meanwhile, Trudeau and Jagmeet partner up to create a deficit spending machine. We discuss the implications and the outlook for the Canadian economy.

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Immigration outflows are not being fully counted by stats Canada, making the labour market appear stronger than it is. Banks are now writing 100% LTV mortgages on new condos. US inflation is accelerating and the Fed is done cutting. Canada names their new Fentanyl Czar. 

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This week's episode we are joined by Chace Barber of Edison Motors to discuss the government grant scandal impacting their EV truck company. We then discuss US inflation, surging bond yields, desperate housing policy changes.

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National house prices continued their slide in December and are now down 17% since peaking. Inflation continues to fall but businesses don't believe we will see 2% inflation anytime soon. Twinkie bets are out, the Bank of Canada is poised for a rate hike next week. Investors are lining up to withdraw nearly $20B worth of funds from private Real Estate.

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We discuss Pierre Poilievres video that has gone viral regarding a potential debt crisis in Canada. Our total debt to GDP sits at 305% and is one of the highest in the G20. This has garnered responses from Chrystia Freeland, the mainstream media, and various economists. What does the Loonie Hour think?

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How China is interfering in federal elections in Canada, spreading fentanyl, and exacerbating a housing crisis. Special interview with independent journalist Sam Cooper. Check out Sam's book, Willful Blindness. We also discuss markets pricing out fed rate cuts, weak Canadian retail sales, and stagflation concerns. 

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CPI inflation came in hot once again in the US. Bond yield volatility surges. Markets removing rate cut expectations. Recessions in Japan and the UK. Construction costs in Canada are finally coming down. The $60M ArriveScam issue. The carbon tax rebrands. 

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Every mainstream bank economist is calling for aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of Canada. How far will they get? Meanwhile, national home prices ripped 26% and inflation touched its highest level in 30 years here in Canada land.

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The Bank of Canada keeps rate hikes on pause, threatening a weaker currency as other central banks push forward with higher rates. What does this mean for the typical Canadian household? Important Jobs numbers are released. Inflation upside risks. Continued bull market for Canadian energy?

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We are joined this week by Canadian credit and housing analyst Ben Rabidoux. Insolvencies are ratcheting higher, the pre-sale market remains the biggest vulnerability. Mortgage rates are starting to break household balance sheets. Immigration is out of control. Canada apartment rents are still rising. The ECB hikes. US inflation still sticky. 

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Canadian household wealth fell by nearly one trillion last quarter with house prices dropping. More cheques are coming in the mail to fight inflation, and with that more rate hikes from the central banks too! Inflation is trending lower but remains sticky, and something markets will be paying close attention to.

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Canadian house prices bounce higher. Inflation dips in Canada. Central banks around the world are preparing to cut rates as commodity prices jump and financial markets rip. The Federal Government starts buying mortgage bonds. 

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Sweeping policy changes are coming on the housing supply front in Vancouver. Meanwhile, TD Bank has become the worlds most shorted bank stock, facing $3.7B of short interest. Is this the end of the US Dollar? Dutch Farmers Revolt ! 

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Canada's food inflation is about to get worse, at least for those living in BC. A once in a lifetime flood has wiped out farmland in the province of BC and threatens supply chains even further. We also discuss how a currency crisis could spark a rise in bond yields and how central banks might have to eventually own all the government debt and cancel it?

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Higher wages are coming to Canada. As the workforce ages there will be a shortage of workers, which means Canada will also rely more heavily on immigration. Meanwhile, many municipalities across the country are suffocating with too much debt and not enough revenues. This is despite record low borrowing costs and sky high real estate prices. Governments are actively looking for more tax revenues and property will be at the forefront.

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We interview energy expert, and popular newsletter writer Doomberg on the green energy transition. Net zero cars, nuclear energy, solar and wind, this is a masterclass on all things energy. There are no solutions, only trade offs, and Doomberg provides the sobering reality Canadians face in the years ahead as governments push climate policy. 

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Turmoil in the UK as surging interest rates nearly collapsed the entire pension system. The Bank of England is now doing QE with double digit inflation. Pressure is mounting on the Fed but there is no imminent pivot. Canadian GDP remains flat despite record immigration growth, human stimulus is masking a recession.

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The Bank of Canada is now blaming Real Estate investors for pushing home prices higher. But who is really to blame? In this argument we discuss the one policy tool never discussed by the media, the cost of borrowing. Keith argues a stronger US dollar is coming, potentially creating a sell-off in risk assets which might give breathing room for major central banks to keep interest rates at zero.

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The BoC cuts rates again, cautions home prices could rise. NDP kills the coalition with the liberal government, is a federal election coming soon? Rents falling in University cities, mortgage rates drift lower. US job market weakens as stock market wobbles.

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Loonie Hour in Ottawa!
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The Bank of Canada delivered a 50bps rate cut and signalled more to come. The Bond market hasn't budged. Money is still flowing out of China as the economy wobbles. The Trudeau government announces immigration cuts, population growth to zero next year.

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Economic growth prospects continue to be revised higher, what are we all missing? Inflation slows in Canada. Business outlook sours. Canada's banking regulator succumbs to political pressures. 

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The Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps this week. They remain very hawkish and suggest that interest rates may need to go north of 3% in order to get inflation down. Meanwhile, housing in Canada continues to slow. Financial repression continues in Europe and debt forgiveness in the United States.

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The Bank of Canada Threatens To Break The Housing Market

The Federal Reserve raises rates by 75bps the largest rate hike since 1994. The Swiss National Bank also shocked with a 50bps rate hike. Sovereign debt bubbles are now facing immense pressure, particularly in Europe and Japan. The crypto market is imploding and the tech sell-off continues. Canadian Real Estate prices fall for second consecutive month.

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The Bank of Canada shocked markets with a 100bps rate hike, the largest rate hike since 1998. Variable rate mortgages are going up and we could soon see fixed payment mortgages get triggered with sudden payment increases. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be the global wrecking ball as investors take a risk-off stance.

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We are joined by Robert Asselin, former advisor to Justin Trudeau, and budget director to Bill Morneau to discuss ballooning deficits and inflation. The Bank of Canada starts hiking rates again. Bond yields surge, building permits plummet. Universal basic income gets a test run.

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Core inflation in Canada came in hotter than expected. Immigration continues to pressure shelter inflation, creating further challenges for the Bank of Canada. The Feds contemplate limiting foreign students in several provinces. Bond yields push higher. Nuclear energy coming to Alberta. The World Economic Forum kicks off. 

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Latest data from the Atlanta Fed is suggesting we might already be in a recession. Meanwhile, home sales continue to slow in suburban housing markets, and stresses are rising in the corporate bond market with spreads widening to levels last seen in 2018 when the Fed was forced to pivot. Happy Canada Day Loonie Hour Community!

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The federal government shocks the market by pushing CMHC insured mortgages up to $1.5M. The Bank of Canada finally gets inflation back down to 2%. The Federal Reserve surprises markets, cuts rates by 50bps. 

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Another hot inflation print out of the US will keep the Fed from pivoting. Rates are moving higher and we should see 6% mortgage rates in Canada come November. How will the economy digest this? Interest expenses are surging not just at the household level but at the sovereign level. This is where the risks are today.

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Commodity inflation will put central bankers in an uncomfortable spot in the coming months. We are seeing currencies being debased at a rapid pace, setting the stages for Bretton Woods 3. What does this look like? The gents discuss in this weeks episode.

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Central Banks Coordinate higher Rates. Bond yields suddenly ripping higher once again. The Bank of Canada says house prices concern them. Housing set to slow with mortgage stress test nearing 8%. Where is the recession? Liquidity is actually increasing, pushing stocks higher. 

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Canada's top investigative reporter and fentanyl expert Sam Cooper joins the show. How bad is the fentanyl problem, what does Trump want to see, and who will become Canada's fentanyl Czar? Corruption runs deep as policy makers turn a blind eye to the deepening drug crisis. 

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CPI inflation in the US continues to decelerate, right in line with expectations. We discuss the market implications and guess where inflation could be later this year. Canadian Bank CEO's send out a warning to regulators over vulnerable borrowers. The Fed says rising house prices created a wealth effect that boosted inflation. Meanwhile, another central banker says it's not their job to fight climate change.

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The Fed has officially begun raising interest rates with what is expected to be many more by year end. How will this play out? Meanwhile an update on the Canadian housing market and the job millennials should be considering

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A big Vancouver Real Estate Developer goes belly up on over $700M in debt. Is this the canary in the coal mine? The Bank of Canada admits they had to pause over extreme household indebtedness. The Fed says disinflation is underway. The yield curve is now the most inverted since the 1980's.

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Inflation in Canada surprised to the downside. However, shelter and food inflation, two things you can't live without- remain elevated. The public sector continues to grow as the entrepreneurial spirit stagnates. Commercial Real Estate remains under pressure. The Market is now more hawkish than the Fed. 

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Canadian inflation continues to decelerate on a rate of change basis but it's coming down too slowly for markets. This is setting the Bank of Canada up for another jump rate hike next week. National house prices continue to slide lower as mortgage rates move towards 6%. Troubles continue to brew in Japan and the UK as sovereign debt issues mount.

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Canada’s Housing Market in the Crosshairs of Tiff Macklem

The Bank of Canada raised rates by 50bps, the largest move in over 20 years. How far will they go? In this episode we discuss the likelihood of a financial mishap and the concerning outlook for the nations housing market.

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US CPI data came in softer than expected but that didn't sway the fed. Projections now call for one cut this year. Producer prices are outright declining. Canadian housing can't be fixed, surging taxes killing development. The pendulum is swinging to the right as voters reject the status quo. 

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The UN accuses Canada's foreign worker program as modern slavery. The feds will convert these low skill immigrants to permanent residency status. Real Estate insolvencies surge to highest levels in more than two decades. Consensus calls for more rate cuts from the BoC and the Fed.

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Fixed mortgage rates still moving higher. Population growth hits 1.2M in Canada. The Fed and ECB promise further rate hikes. The much talked about recession has not transpired, making the case for higher for longer interest rates. Government debt and the expectation for lower stock returns.

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Liquidity is scarce to end the year. Stocks are down, bond yields are rising once again. Delinquencies are set to rise. The boys discuss the outlook for 2023 and provide some forecasts on possible scenarios.

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Recent data out of Vancouver & Toronto points to a marked slowdown in September that looks poised to continue into Q4. Bond yields accelerate higher. Manufacturing data continues to weaken. China Coal usage ramps up. Reserve Bank of Australia moves firmly to the sidelines.

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Consumer and producer prices in China are now outright contracting on an annual basis. US CPI inflation is nearly back on target, but how do you factor in base effects and lagging shelter prices? The largest retailer in Canada delivers ominous warning about the shape of Canadian households.

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We are joined by BMO's chief economist Doug Porter. The Bank of Canada will cut, probably in June. Don't expect bond yields or fixed mortgage rates to budge. Inflation is nearly defeated in Canada but not the US. Weak investment in Canada to continue with capital gains increases.

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Interest rates are rising once again as economic growth remains resilient for now. The Fed and the ECB raise rates once again. The federal government has a new housing minister. 

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Canadian banks reported earnings this week. Nearly all of them significantly increased their provision for loan losses. The economy contracted in Q3.  Markets are betting on the BoC to cut rates next year. US still holding up.

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Housing sales plunging means no new housing by 2030. Former BoC governor Poloz says we are in a recession. Canadian businesses struggling with Canada Post strikes. Powell at the Fed signals rate cuts might be over. Bank of Canada on deck next week.

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National home prices in Canada continue to slide, falling 12% on a yearly basis, the deepest slide on record. Signs of sticky inflation persist, suggesting the Bank of Canada might still have more work to do on interest rates. The Wealth gap could explode higher in the next recession. Could interest income from high interest rates actually be easing financial conditions? 

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Rent inflation surged pushing the CPI basket higher. The Liberals lose an important by election in Toronto. Will JT resign? Toronto new home sales fall off a cliff. The labour market weakens for new immigrants. The Japanese yen continues to roll lower, a key signpost for the global sovereign debt bubble.

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CPI drops back within the Bank of Canada's target range, will it be enough for a cut in June? Population growth surges with some cities growing more than 6%. AirBnb bans will hit the tourism sector in some Canadian cities. 

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Canada CPI comes in hot. Bond yields ripping higher over inflation concerns. Oil continues to push higher which will act as a hard brake on the economy. Powell dismisses the base case for a soft landing. The Bank of England moves to the sidelines. Airlines in the eye of the storm.

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Canadian GDP growth slows ahead of Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Is the Bank of Canada nearing the end of their rate hike cycle? Retail sales are flat over the past few years and housing is now falling. Jerome Powell readies the market for an easing, bond yields fall as growth slows.

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Bond yields will tumble amidst debt deflation in China, propelling lower mortgage rates in Canada and higher house prices. The US stock market will see a large correction and usher in a recession in the US. The Euro will crash as the German economy sinks. 

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Consumer inflation expectations are at a 20 year high and the Bank of Canada continues to push back saying they won't raise interest rates until mid 2022 at the earliest. Meanwhile, business are expecting to push prices up next year near 5%. The Omicron variant is being used an excuse to hold firm. Meanwhile, the national housing market continues to rip, creating systemic vulnerabilities.

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More hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Canada as they prep for another rate hike. Mortgage rates in Canada are now at their hightest levels in 2008 and some banks are pulling the cord. Meanwhile, the Euro Zone preps for to hike rates to zero as inflation surges.

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The FCAC has asked Canadian banks to work with borrowers to extend amortizations and reduce prepayment penalties for over leveraged home owners. Real Estate stats in Vancouver & Toronto point to a market that is slowing. The ISM continues to roll over. Waiting for Non-farm payroll to drop. Canada plans largest Uranium plant in the world.

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The Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold while raising GDP growth forecasts. Meanwhile, land loans to developers have completely evaporated, sowing the seeds for a supply crunch years down the road. CPI in the US eases but core inflation is proving to be sticky. Warren Buffett takes a surprise trip to Japan. Germany shuts down more nuclear plants.

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Inflation in Canada ticket higher once again, running at three decade highs. Food and shelter inflation is also increasing, creating social and political pressures. The Canadian housing market continues to slow.

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Vibecession in Canada. Jobs not keeping pace with immigration. Emissions cap and Trump tariffs, what is the fate of the Canadian energy sector? GST holiday gets a boost in Ontario. The Eurozone continues to circle the drain in large part due to poor energy policy. 

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Headline inflation falls to 4.2% in March. National house prices are back on the rise with housing starts still falling. Government employees striking across the nation as the cost of living crisis persists, potentially entrenching higher wage inflation. Former head of the Conservative Party Erin O’Toole joins the show.

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Will the Central banks cave on their inflation mandate in the eyes of weakening economic data? The Bank of England just raised interest rates 50bps and says a recession is all but guaranteed for the fourth quarter and that it will last well into next year. The Canadian housing market continues to roll over, with both Vancouver & Toronto Real Estate markets experiencing multi-decade lows in housing sales. Toronto house prices dropped nearly 4% in the month of July. Financial stresses continue to escalate.

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The Japanese Yen has fallen almost 50% against the US dollar since 2020. Attempts to intervene are failing. The USD needs to go lower through Fed easing. The Bank of Canada desperately wants to cut. GDP on a per capita basis is still contracting. Mortgage renewals finally starting to bite?

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Canadian bank earnings reported modestly higher loan loss provisions, despite a wave of renewals coming. Tariffs talks are ramping back up with the US expected to hit Canada next week. The bond market is worried about weaker growth. The EU pleads with India. Crypto market crashes.

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Central banks are aggressively easing and liquidity measures are turning up. Geopolitical conflict is ramping up, putting upwards pressure on oil prices, could this stoke another wave of inflation? Toronto and Vancouver Real Estate see rising inventory levels despite lower rates. 

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How President Trump upended the world order and his strategy behind it. PM Carney to call an election this week. Canada CPI surges more than expected. The Fed holds rates for now. Canadian Banks tighten credit.

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Canada's CPI inflation slowed in December. Will inflation perk up again this year? The bond market says one more rate cut for the Bank of Canada. Policy makers are swinging to the right as public sentiment shifts. Scrapping the Carbon tax and Capital gains tax. The UK debt market barreling towards a crisis provides insights for other western countries on managing deficits.

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Canada's GDP was flat in Q4, falling well below the Bank of Canada's forecast. The housing market continues to be starved of inventory as sellers attempt to hold out market conditions. Extend and pretend, amortizations are growing at Canadian banks. Inflation remains sticky across the US and Euro Zone as growth slows. 

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The Fed raised rates by 50bps and said another 50bps should be on the table for the next couple of meetings. Meanwhile, equity markets continue to sell-off and there are signs that bank lending is tightening in a big way.

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Canada CPI falls well below expectations, sets up a jumbo rate cut next week. European Central bank slashes rates again. Stocks, the USD dollar, and gold all rise on an easing of financial conditions. Will the bond vigilantes return? 

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The BoC cut rates, highlighting excess supply and concerns over a weakening labour market. The Canadian dollar continues to weaken, with more rate cuts expected. US GDP came in stronger than expected, perhaps delaying any rate cuts in the US. Repo issues brewing in Canada, suggesting collateral concerns are growing at some banks.

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