The Julia La Roche Show (Julia La Roche)

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.” 

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more.

Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran.

Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality.

Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show

1:08 Macro outlook 

3:10 Economic picture 

5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now

8:00 Short-term treasuries 

9:16 10-year Treasury 

14:13 Inflation 

17:15 Investor bias 

20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing 

27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio 

30:30 Folks can afford to wait now 

31:50 Psychology of investing 

39:00 Gold 

40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days? 

41:51 Every landing is hard 

44:16 The small investor 

46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth 

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 143. 

In this episode, Danielle provides an update on the economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the job market and the increase in layoffs. She discusses the impact of the white collar recession and the decline in net worth for high-income individuals. DiMartino Booth also shares her insights on the market performance and the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates. She suggests a question for Fed Chair Powell regarding the regulatory changes and their impact on the financial system. Additionally, DiMartino Booth emphasizes the importance of backlogs as an indicator and discusses the current state of the economy in an election year.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links: 

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Takeaways

• The job market is facing challenges, with layoffs increasing and the demand for labor collapsing.
• The current recession can be characterized as a white collar recession, with high-income individuals experiencing a decline in net worth.
• The market performance is driven by the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the timing and extent of these cuts are uncertain.
• Backlogs serve as an important indicator of the economy, reflecting pent-up demand and potential future trends.
• The upcoming election is crucial, and voters should be aware of the government's spending and the importance of their vote.

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction and update on the economy

03:08 Job market and layoffs

08:25 White collar recession

10:03 Market performance 

15:06 Outlook for interest rates

17:19 Question for Fed Chair Powell

18:41 The importance of backlogs as an indicator

20:05 Recession

21:34 Journalism background and Warren Buffett

24:00 Parting thoughts

Lynette Zang, financial analyst and economist, explains why the US dollar is at the end of its life cycle, with only 3 cents of purchasing power remaining from the original dollar. She details how currency collapses follow predictable patterns, with the current system having effectively died in 2008. Zang calculates gold's fundamental value at over $40,000 per ounce based on global debt divided by available gold, and predicts a hyperinflationary depression as the transition mechanism to a new monetary system. She outlines her eight-part preparation strategy focusing on food, water, energy, security, barterability, wealth preservation, community, and shelter, while advocating for sound money with convertible gold backing to force fiscal responsibility.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheLynetteZang

https://x.com/TheLynetteZang

0:00 Introduction of Lynette Zang

1:22 Big picture view on currency life cycles

3:44 Analysis of pattern recognition in markets

5:55 Discussion of dollar's end game scenario

8:43 Four key functions of money and fiat failures

10:02 Explanation of negative interest rates

11:32 Inflation impact and purchasing power decline

13:56 Gold vs dollar performance since 1913

15:10 Economic outlook and debt sustainability

17:24 Compounding interest and credit exhaustion

20:09 Gold-backed currency and fiscal responsibility

21:25 Gold price behavior and performance analysis

23:51 Gold valuation methodology

26:34 Gold revaluation and confidence loss

28:29 Personal asset allocation strategy

30:32 CBDCs and currency transition tactics

34:13 Monetary reset discussion

37:04 Hyperinflationary depression outlook

40:19 Preparedness strategies and food security

43:49 Detailed home preparedness approach

48:46 Economic outlook beyond recession

51:06 Eight critical preparation categories

52:57 Central bank gold buying motivations

54:42 Gold standard and sound money advocacy

57:39 Perception management and paradigm shifts

1:01:12 Closing thoughts and contact information

Mike Maloney (@mike_maloney), author of Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver and founder and CEO of GoldSilver.com, joins Julia La Roche on episode 75 to discuss his newest book and latest warning that an economic storm is coming that will dwarf the 2008 global financial crisis and why we could see the unleashing of a massive bull market in gold and silver.

You can buy Mike’s newest book, The Great Gold And Silver Rush Of The 21st Century here: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Gold-Silver-Rush-Century/dp/B0BP3HW5HJ

You can read Chapters 3 and 4 of The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st here: ⁠https://ggsr21.com/online-chapters/⁠

You can buy Mike's first book Guide To Investing In Gold And Silver here: https://www.amazon.com/Guide-Investing-Gold-Silver-Financial/dp/1937832740/

0:00 Show open

1:30 Welcome Mike Maloney

2:56 Mike says the new book is not easy to find on Amazon

4:00 Macro picture today — the world is drowning in debt

5:59 ‘An evil monetary system’

7:20 ‘You have been monetized’

13:00 When we used gold 

14:29 Modern monetary system based on ‘fraud, theft, and enslavement,’ says Mike Maloney 

17:00 ‘Unless it stores value, it’s not money. Period.’ 

17:15 Money v. Currency 

22:12 A monetary system that’s ‘an illusion' 

24:00 ‘On a path toward an implosion’ 

26:00 CBDCs 

27:58 Central Banks buying gold 

28:47 China and gold 

33:00 A bigger financial crisis than 2008? 

35:00 ‘The Almost Everything Bubble’ and ‘The Bernanke Bust’ 

39:00 Open Market explained 

48:33 Warping the economy 

50:35 Interest in gold and silver 

53:00 US dollar 

54:00 Trapped in an ultra-complex system 

56:26 Taxpayer takes a loss 

59:00 Benefits of owning precious metals during a meltdown 

1:02:50 Gold and silver could soar 

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 242 to discuss the markets and the economy. He explains why America's K-shaped economy - where the top 10% drives 50% of retail sales - has made the status quo unsustainable. He argues Trump's policies reflect the reality that our $36 trillion debt has become a national security issue requiring allies to pay for their defense rather than relying solely on U.S. taxpayers. Bianco maintains his "no landing" economic outlook, viewing tariffs as negotiation leverage rather than permanent policy. For investors, he predicts bonds will deliver 5% returns with lower volatility compared to stocks' 6-7% annually, making fixed income an attractive alternative after years of TINA (There Is No Alternative).

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

0:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Bianco

0:55 Big picture view on K-shaped economy

3:18 Bottom half vs top half income differences

4:38 Top 10% accounting for 50% of retail sales

6:52 Unsustainable fiscal situation and policy shifts

9:12 Mar-a-Lago Accord discussion

14:03 Ukraine situation and security payments

17:44 Fourth Turning analysis and Trump's preparation

21:06 Focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs

22:28 Bond market analysis and common misconceptions

26:43 Bond yields vs stock market returns

29:28 Stock market valuation and return expectations

31:29 Problems with passive investing

34:42 Market correction reaction and overreaction

38:43 Tesla stock overreaction example

39:59 No landing economic view

42:21 Tariffs as leverage, not permanent policy

43:22 Red Sea shipping disruption analysis

47:08 Houthi drone attacks and economic implications

50:51 Global security costs and European defense spending

54:28 Closing thoughts on economic realignment

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34.

Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions.

Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.” 

In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling

1:45 We were getting lied to all the time

2:35 Law School 

3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks

5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets

6:55 The Sino-Forest short

9:55 Grifting in the ESG space

13:20 The Sunrun short thesis

19:50 Impact of rising rates

21:18 DLocal short thesis

26:28 DLocal’s response

29:40 Block’s process for building a short thesis

35:05 “Investor Journalist”

38:20 Why short selling exists

42:45 How short selling is perceived

45:02 The “Tick The Box Apocalypse”

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction.

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf

00:50 Macro picture

03:47 China's structural challenges

06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise

09:36 US labor market dynamics

12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs

16:30 US stock market bubble discussion

21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics

25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing

28:39 Decennial pattern analysis

32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics

36:36 Bond market paradigm shift

41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook

45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels

48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook

51:20 Financial system stability concerns

https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession.

Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.

This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt

1:55 Macro picture 

3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession

4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households 

6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy 

9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index 

11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic 

14:20 Law of diminishing returns 

17:03 What does a hard landing look like 

20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle 

23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession

26:00 Debt, demographics 

29:40 US dollar 

30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier 

36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL) 

41:55 Contra normal developments

43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed

48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion

50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion

54:00 Classical economist 

57:00 5 phases of the business cycle  

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture, characterized by confusion and ambiguity. 

In this episode, Jeff explains the Fed's focus on consumer prices and the risks associated with this approach. Jeff also highlights the lurking risks in the commercial real estate market and the Chinese real estate bubble. He provides insights on asset allocation and portfolio construction in this uncertain environment.

Jeff is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (https://www.eurodollar.university/) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. 

Timestamps: 

00:00 Introduction

01:05 Welcome Jeff and the macro view

03:08 Confusion and ambiguity in the economy

07:24 The Fed's focus on consumer prices

08:43 Market pricing and signaling

11:57 What the Fed should be focused on

14:30 Ambiguity in economic data

23:51 Fiscal support and the economy

26:39 Lurking risks: Commercial real estate and China

31:10 Asset allocation and portfolio construction

33:47 Eurodollar University and parting thoughts

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 234 to discuss markets in 2025. He explains why he's waiting to see how new government initiatives play out before taking strong market positions, while maintaining significant precious metals exposure. Fleckenstein emphasizes that the passive bid remains "the elephant in the room" in markets, warns about government waste revelations, and explains why gold continues to show unexpected strength.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap

Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

0:00 Introduction and welcome

0:47 Big picture macro view and bond market analysis

7:17 Discussion of Social Security numbers and potential fraud

8:10 Market assessment and passive investing dynamics

9:40 Gold market analysis and central bank buying

15:01 Analysis of gold revaluation proposals

16:40 Debt discussion and DOGE initiatives

21:44 Bond market dynamics and 30-40 year cycles

24:16 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts

26:07 Economic impact of government workforce changes

28:26 Silver market outlook

31:00 Passive bid impact on markets

34:03 Dollar outlook and Japanese yen analysis

36:02 Concerns about government agency revelations

39:05 Warning to younger investors about passive investing

41:00 Discussion of market structure vs traditional bubbles

44:42 Closing remarks and contact information

Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg (@friedberg), the CEO of The Production Board and co-host/“Bestie” on The All-In Podcast, joined Julia La Roche on today’s episode for a wide-ranging conversation.

Friedberg was born in South Africa and moved to Los Angeles with his family at age 6. Friedberg studied astrophysics and UC Berkley. He joined Google months before its initial public offering working in corporate development. At the end of 2006, Friedberg left Google to start The Climate Corporation, a software company focused on agriculture. Monsanto acquired the Climate Corporation in 2013 for around $1 billion. 

In the episode, Friedberg shares his struggles raising venture capital for The Climate Corporation and later rapidly iterating and evolving the business model and product. According to Friedberg, three predictors for a startup’s success — grit, bias to action, and narrative — are all traits he looks for in making investments today.

Friedberg started The Production Board, a holding company that creates and invests in agriculture, food, human health, life sciences, and biomanufacturing businesses. A core tenet of The Production Board focuses on decentralizing industrial processes to reinvent how we make and consume things as a species, from clothing, materials, plastics, food, and more.

Friedberg sees a tremendous opportunity to deploy technologies such as biomanufacturing, automation, 3-D printing, or additive manufacturing to modularize and decentralize production, which benefits the planet and serves human needs. One example is Cana, a molecular beverage printer that allows consumers to turn water into soda, juice, coffee, and tea at home using a flavor cartridge without all the CO2 emissions that span the existing supply chains.

Elsewhere, Friedberg shared his views on how we can achieve free, abundant energy. He predicts terrestrial nucleosynthesis could drive the greatest source of value and wealth creation in the 22nd century, and he extrapolates what this might mean for civilization. 

0:00 Intro

0:30 Origin story

2:18 Friedberg’s interest in science

3:56 Lessons in entrepreneurship

7:15 Predictors of startup success

8:15 Building ‘grit’ in business

10:05 Importance of narrative

12:35 Strong storytellers more likely to succeed

14:14 Everything is learnable

18:42 Macro view of reimagining earth

25:45 Why anti-consumerism is dumb

29:30 Cana, the molecular beverage printer

32:15 Decentralization in media expanding to physical goods

33:45 Creators’ products will win against traditional products

39:58 Starbucks the first personalized consumer products company

42:30 Abundant free energy

53:45 From laborers to knowledge workers to narrators

1:00:34 Thoughts on UBI

1:04:55 Why is there fear around new technology?

1:06:03 Implications of solving the protein folding problem

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.

Links:  

DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

Anthony Scaramucci, founder/managing partner of fund-of-funds SkyBridge Capital and affectionately known as "The Mooch," joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on life, business, investing, and politics. 

Scaramucci details some of his biggest career failures — including being fired by Goldman Sachs, failing the New York State bar exam, and getting fired from the White House — and the lessons learned along the way, from resilience to relationship building. 

Scaramucci also discusses the markets and the opportunities he sees in this environment. Once a bitcoin skeptic, Scaramucci talks about SkyBridge's big bet on the cryptocurrency, why he thinks it's "dirt cheap" at these price levels, and his thesis for $300,000 per bitcoin. 

Scaramucci famously served as the White House Director of Communications from July 21 to July 31, 2017, before getting fired. Scaramucci, a vocal critic of the former president in recent years, reveals if he could ever "make peace" with Trump. He also shares his thoughts on Mar-a-Lago.

Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vS9x2cyewYw

Follow Scaramucci on Twitter: https://twitter.com/scaramucci

Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber 00:57 Macro overview and government statistics 02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy 04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina 06:09 Market outlook and policy implications 08:57 US indices topping out analysis 11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets 13:37 Gold price history and precious metals 14:35 Bond market size discussion 16:37 Monetary inflation distortions 19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks 21:21 Insurance and property discussion 23:02 Government role in economy 26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion 28:01 Trump administration outlook 32:00 Real economy recession analysis 34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation 40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique 42:49 End of asset inflation thesis 44:35 Cost of living increases examples 47:24 Portfolio allocation framework 49:55 Communist memorabilia collection 54:21 Closing thoughts Links: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

Carol Roth @caroljsroth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche on episode 48 to discuss her last book “The War On Small Business: How The Government Used The Pandemic To Crush The Backbone of America.”

Carol’s book highlights how the government's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic favored the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of small businesses. This has led to a consolidation of power and wealth, with small businesses struggling while the stock market reached new highs. According to Carol, this is not a new problem, but the pandemic exposed it. In "The War on Small Business,” Carol details the abuses of power inflicted on small businesses during the pandemic and argues that government is the problem, not the solution. The book also advocates for decentralization to help small businesses and individuals participate in wealth creation.

In this episode, Carol discusses how capitalism in the U.S. is being replaced by cronyism, the Fed’s role in this epic wealth transfer, the nonsense surrounding ESG and the nefarious side of that movement, her biggest fear when the next pandemic arises, and more.

0:00 Intro

1:05 “Recovering” investment banker

3:04 Cronyism replacing capitalism in the markets

4:00 Didn’t have Fed tipping the scales and picking winners/losers

5:40 A focus on short-termism

6:15 ESG nonsense

7:23 Why write “The War On Business”?

9:30 The underreported story of the epic wealth transfer

10:40 The “Black Swan” was the government’s reaction to the pandemic

12:50 Partial lockdowns, not full lockdowns

15:00 “All in this together” got “completely bastardized”

16:00 Impact on small business owners like Shelly Luther

19:05 Carol’s “biggest concern” about future pandemics

20:40 Less trust in government, media

21:28 Covid amnesty?

24:30 Importance of small businesses in U.S.

26:38 Central planning is “America’s worst trade deal”

27:33 Capitalism is freedom and choice

30:00 Assessment of capitalism today

32:34 The Federal Reserve is a “failed experiment for the average American”

36:30 Ways to reform the Fed

38:50 The Fed’s actions got us here

41:48 The epic wealth transfer

44:38 Millennials, Gen-Z making more money, but don’t have as much wealth

47:05 Fed’s role in financial institutions buying up homes

47:33 Nefarious side of ESG

50:25 Worried about personal recessions

54:15 Parting thoughts

Billionaire tech titan Marc Benioff, the founder and CEO of Salesforce, joins Julia La Roche on a special episode at Dreamforce, the software and cloud giant's annual technology conference in San Francisco. 

This year's Dreamforce attracted 40,000 attendees, making it the most significant event in San Francisco since the COVID pandemic. Benioff shared that the event brought in an estimated $40 million to the local economy, giving a much-needed "big shot in the arm" to the city. With sparsely populated offices, the San Francisco native CEO made a case for companies choosing San Francisco to host large events and conferences instead of places like Las Vegas.

The conversation also touched upon the homelessness situation in San Francisco. As San Francisco's largest private employer, Benioff supported the passage of Proposition in 2018, which levied a 0.5% tax on the city's largest companies to combat the homelessness crisis. During the conversation, he called for institutionalizing affordable housing in the U.S. and for more mental health and addiction treatment programs.

Benioff started Salesforce in 1999 as a pioneer in software-as-a-service (SaaS) and customer relationship management (CRM). Since then, it's become the largest enterprise software company and customer relationship management (CRM) company globally. The company is expected to do $31 billion in annual revenue this year and aims to hit $50 billion in the fiscal year 2026. While at Dreamforce, Benioff unveiled the company's newest product, Salesforce Genie, the first real-time CRM.

Since its inception, Salesforce has integrated philanthropy into its business, primarily with its 1-1-1 model, where the company donates 1% of its equity, product, and employee time to charity. Benioff discussed some of the focus areas, including the environment through reforestation and adopting public schools. He also shared some of the biggest influences in his life and business and advice for next-generation entrepreneurs. 

0:00 The Great Reunion 

1:38 Future of Work 

2:57 Quit Quitting 

4:42 Views on the Economy 

5:56 Salesforce Genie 

7:32 Talk to Your Customers 

9:02 $50B Goal 

10:03 Ecopreneur Revolution 

11:40 Public Education 

14:34 San Francisco 

17:47 Influences 

21:54 Advice for Entrepreneurs 

Wall Street Journal bestselling author Matt Higgins, author of “Burn the Boats” and co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures — a private investment firm that focuses on sports and entertainment, media and marketing, food and lifestyle, and technology — joins Julia La Roche for episode 103 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, the consumer, artificial intelligence, and unlocking your individual potential. 

Links: 

Burn the Boats: https://www.amazon.com/Burn-Boats-Overboard-Unleash-Potential/dp/006308886X?

Matt Higgins on X: https://twitter.com/mhiggins

Matt Higgins on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-higgins-rse/

RSE Ventures: https://rseventures.com/

A quick correction: I mistakenly referred to an episode featuring Peter Cecchini in a discussion about the consumer. The episode I should have referred to would have been the most recent Larry McDonald episode (ep. 101). I apologize for the error. - Julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Matt Higgins 

1:16 Macro view 

2:29 The consumer is laboring under a mountain of debt

5:00 Housing market at a stalemate 

6:03 “‘Soft landing’ is a euphemism for soft-peddling” 

8:50 Valuations 

10:45 Purpose of raising rates 

13:12 Only way out is a reckoning 

13:45 How is Matt Higgins preparing? 

15:45 Bullish long-term 

17:30 Greatest catalyst of wealth creation in our lifetime 

20:12 Burn The Boats book 

25:30 Metaphorical boats that hold you back 

31:09 Career 

35:50 Education system not designed to meet a student where they are 

38:30 Opening up

41:30 Most important skills of a founder 

42:45 Rex Ryan 

46:15 Best part of the book

48:40 Parting thoughts 

Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 96 to discuss what's happening in the bond market. Howell recently shared a piece on his Substack, "It's Bonds, Not Banks, That Look Dangerous." Read the piece here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/its-bonds-not-banks-that-look-dangerous Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro 1:02 Macro view today 2:26 Why is the bond market so important 6:40 Pressures in the bond market 10:15 Term premia 14:43 BRIC economies’ gold-backed currency 16:16 Who is going to want to buy the Treasuries? 19:00 Bond market is distorted 22:50 US dollar 27:30 Liquidity

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

01:00 Macro view

03:00 Stress tests

05:50 The Consumer

07:30 Silent crisis in commercial

11:24 Election

14:45 Trump win good for the economy

17:30 Inflation

21:20 Rate policy

25:30 Trump

29:00 Parting thoughts

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China.

Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945.

0:00 Intro

1:52 Introducing Ray

2:14 Macro picture

2:56 3 big forces shaping the world

5:14 2 other big influences

7:20 Tracking the typical cycle

7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict

10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War

11:02 Debt problem

12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide

13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine'

18:00 Political internal fighting

19:45 Emergence of populism

21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945

23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps

25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps

28:01 Can we avoid the decline?

28:41 If Ray Dalio were president…

30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry.

31:22 U.S.-China relationship

35:00 The redline

36:40 Brinksmanship

37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China

40:00 World order breakdown

41:33 The bifurcation

43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…'

44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind

45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.'

49:30 U.S. Treasuries

51:42 Portfolio construction

54:24 Diversify internationally

55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story

57:57 Bitcoin views today

1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down

1:03:57 Parting thoughts

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154.

Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics.

Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future.

Links:

https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity

11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation

26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics

30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending

35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution

37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists

39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates

40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy

44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate

50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money

54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels

01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change

Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets. 

Link: 

https://www.treussard.com/julia

Timestamps: 

00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard

00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility 

04:11 Wealth inequality 

05:33 AI

06:33 Is the economy healthy? 

07:55 Money illusion

10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations

14:36 Geopolitics 

17:50 Middle class 

19:50 From musician to economist

27:15 Changing perception of America

30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit

36:00 Banking system 

38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit

41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty 

45:12 Parting thoughts

Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and author of macro newsletter The Boock Report, joins Julia on episode 51 for a wide-ranging conversation on macroeconomics.

In this episode, Boockvar makes a case that investors need to get accustomed to a slower rate of growth in this new interest rate environment where rates will stay higher for longer. As Boockvar puts it, it’s a “death by a thousand cuts” economy.

The conversation touched on the housing market, the Federal Reserve, earnings, layoffs, China’s reopening, inflation, and much more.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Macro view

1:12 Still in a bear market

2:31 Debt coming due

5:56 A death by a thousand cuts

8:06 A slower rate of growth

9:40 Housing market

10:35 To what extent do home prices fall?

13:58 Economic outlook

15:00 Higher rates relative to inflation is a more healthy environment

17:00 The Fed’s reputation has been shattered

18:03 Powell doesn’t want to repeat the 1970s

19:00 Fed wants market to ‘sober up’

20:44 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number

25:00 Earnings picture are a headwind for stocks

27:40 White Collar recession

30:24 China’s reopening

31:40 Chinese consumer has been unleashed

34:45 Why oil will go well north of $100 this year

36:30 Playing the China reopening

37:40 U.S. big tech’s best of their stock days are over

40:30 Every investor focused on macro has to keep an eye on BOJ

44:00 How to think about inflation

49:00 Be aware of your investing/economic surroundings

50:08 Boockvar’s marrying macro and micro

53:11 Time horizon is the key to successful investing

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

Three years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. And he expects inflation will fall to his expected range of 2.5-3% by the end of the year. He also expects that we'll enter a recession later this year or early next year.

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

01:05 Big picture, macro view, Quantity Theory of Money

06:20 Inflation headed to 2.5-3% zone by year-end, sees recession ahead

07:40 Grading the Federal Reserve's policies, they get an 'F'

12:40 How the money supply works

16:21 Inflation below 2%?

17:30 Debt and deficit

21:52 Need for a Constitutional amendment to control government spending

23:48 End game if we don't address the debt situation

24:44 A fiscal illusion

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show to explain why he remains surprised by economic resilience despite mounting challenges, breaks down why gold could reach $9,000-$10,000 as governments inflate away debt obligations, and shares specific sectors he sees as undervalued including oil & gas, community banks, and wholesale insurance. Rule also provides a sobering analysis of America's $130+ trillion in total obligations, explains why the government will likely choose gradual inflation over outright default, and offers advice for younger generations on navigating what he expects to be a challenging decade ahead.

Register for the Rick Rule Symposium 2025.

Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Rick Rule 01:01 Economic resilience despite challenges 02:52 Winners and losers in current economy 03:16 Warning signs: Fed losing control of long yields 04:33 Value opportunities in out-of-favor stocks 05:26 Gold price outlook and analysis 07:34 Real inflation vs CPI discussion 08:33 Foreign government gold buying 10:59 Price targets and Warren Buffett's wisdom 12:06 1970s inflation comparison 14:01 Impact of high inflation environments 17:13 Entitlement obligations analysis 19:37 Social Security reform discussion 23:00 10-year reckoning outlook 24:59 Department of Government Efficiency critique 28:15 Solutions to government spending 30:23 Monetary reset scenarios 35:04 Investment opportunities discussion 39:07 Canadian political outlook 44:46 Portfolio positioning and cash levels 47:48 Closing thoughts and upcoming events

Links:

Rick Rule Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=julia Rule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 98, featuring a discussion on the macro environment. Rule, who has 50 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He's long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic. 0:00 Intro 0:59 Macro picture 2:30 Arithmetic of the deterioration in purchasing power 4:10 Rich Men North of Richmond 5:20 Rule’s savings losing purchasing power at about 7% compounded 7:00 Severe but survivable 10:45 What is the fair value of gold? 12:50 No one size fits all for how to own gold 15:20 Arithmetic around long bonds is lousy 19:40 Underlying economy has been amazingly strong 22:47 A richer world is good for everyone 23:40 Future for younger generations

Alan Patricof (@alanjpatricof) is a venture capital pioneer with a career spanning more than 50 years and showing no signs of slowing down. The 87-year-old started his third venture capital business nearly two years ago called Primetime Partners, wrote his first book published this year, and this week he'll be attending Burning Man, and in the fall, he'll run the New York City Marathon for the sixth time.

He joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation on life and investing. 

Patricof started in venture capital at 36 in 1970, before a venture capital industry existed. His Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc. was the predecessor to Apax Partners, one of the largest private equity firms today. In 2006, at 72, Patricof founded Greycroft Partners, a venture capital firm that led numerous investments in digital media companies.

He has since left Greycroft to take on the founding partner and chairperson role at Primetime Partners. At Primetime Partners, Patricof, who said he plans to live until 114, is focused on what he calls the "ageless generation" — those over the age of 60 that are part of the fastest-growing part population.

Since its inception two years ago, Primetime Partners has deployed capital across 25 investments with a focus on seed and early-stage investments in products, services, and experiences for the aging, including aging in place, financial security for retirees, care management, longevity health services, and consumer experiences. Primetime has also backed older entrepreneurs building companies, with 18% of its founders over 50.

With his new book, "No Red Lights," Patricof hopes to encourage the older generation "not to pack it all in and go to the golf course and retire." He also hopes to share lessons with the younger generation to be open to new opportunities and live a life of curiosity.

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps:

01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks

03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges

05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts

07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes

09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing

14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility

17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power

22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications

25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints

31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options

35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies

42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility

45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system

48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications

50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis

52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment

54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal

57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

**Timestamps:**

00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen

00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview

03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent

05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications

06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates

07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization

09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook

11:25 Housing market forecast

13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

17:16 GSE stock trading outlook

19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative

21:49 Recession and credit market concerns

23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator

25:49 Gold policy recommendations

27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis

29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

31:35 Government headcount reduction impact

34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry (@Hendry_Hugh) joins Julia La Roche again for an unfiltered conversation on macro, markets, Bitcoin, the Fed, and more. 

Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.

These days, Hendry is a luxury hotelier on St. Barts, where he spends his time surfing and still thinking about macro. He also hosts a weekly podcast called "Acid Capitalist" and shares his views on Instagram, Twitter, and Substack.

0:00 Intro

1:18 Macro picture, ‘my imagination is as dark as it was in 2007’

5:00 “I’m fearful”, already in recession as we speak 

8:18 Want to own equities right now 

12:30 Bitcoin 

15:00 Sitting with cash, waiting to buy 

17:58 Been in a depression since 2008 

22:30 Banking sector 

27:30 Eurodollar system 

32:00 Entrepreneurial dream has been replaced 

34:50 Inflation Reduction Act is actually smart 

38:00 A recession of a similar magnitude to 2008-2009 

42:47 The five who know 

45:30 Music and charts 

47:30 Twitter

49:23 Parting thoughts 

Jennifer Sey (@jennifersey) said she was on track to be the first female CEO of Levi Strauss & Co. until she resigned after over two decades at the jeans maker after facing pressure to stay quiet about her opposition to San Francisco’s public school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Throughout the pandemic, Sey was vocal about the policies impacting children, including the closure of schools and playgrounds, the masking of toddlers, learning loss, the increased educational gap, and the mental health crisis among teens that resulted from these closures. In February 2022, Sey, then-Brand President of Levi Strauss & Co., resigned and published an op-ed in Bari Weiss’s Common Sense (now The Free Press) where she revealed that she was offered $1 million in severance if she signed a non-disclosure agreement. She chose to forfeit the money and tell her story in the new book, “Levi’s Unbuttoned: The Woke Mob Took My Job But Gave Me My Voice.” 

In this episode, Sey discusses her time at Levis, joining as a marketing assistant in 1999, rising to Chief Marketing Officer, a role she held for several years, and her promotion to Global Brand President in October 2020. In January 2022, she was asked to resign because of her social media posts that were critical of COVID mandates. 

Topics featured in the episode include woke capitalism infiltrating corporate America, cancel culture, policy failures during the pandemic, free speech, the political divide, why there shouldn’t be pandemic amnesty, and more. 

Sey, the 1986 USA Gymnastics National Champion and a 7-time member of the U.S. Women’s National Team, also revisited her time as an elite gymnast and why she walked away from the sport ahead of the 1988 Olympics. She is the author of the book “Chalked Up,” which detailed the coaching cruelty in the sport, and the producer of the Emmy award-winning documentary “Athlete A.” 

0:00 Intro 

1:06 An ‘unusual childhood’ as an elite gymnast 

2:00 Gymnastics rife with abuse 

3:30 Too broken to continue 

5:00 Said the thing you’re not supposed to say out loud 

6:23 Thoughts on quitting  

9:26 Imposter syndrome 

12:21 Early career after Stanford 

15:50 Overcoming the doubters 

18:38 CMO is a very slippery seat 

20:00 Live In Levi’s campaign 

22:22 No raise, no equity

26:05 No stock payout at the IPO 

26:41 ‘Use your voice’ 

28:00 Speaking out during COVID 

30:56 The ‘controversial’ tweets 

32:12 An ‘unacceptable’ ‘problematic’ view

33:58 The Fox News appearance 

35:00 The viral Twitter thread

35:36 The email before the ‘apology tour’ 

37:29 A dark time, treated as a ‘toxic employee’ 

39:00 ‘It’s really cult-like’ 

39:44 Promoted to brand president in October 2020 

40:53 Told she was a candidate for CEO  

41:28 Submitted to a background check 

43:00 Offered $1M severance to walk away quietly 

45:30 Vaccine mandate 

46:30 Wrote book to encourage folks to speak up

47:19 Why are people quiet? 

48:50 Views on political binary

51:50 A return to corporate America? 

53:25 Should there be COVID amnesty? 

56:29 Lessons for children 

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 236.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Elliott shares why the economy faces a likely growth disappointment in 2025. He explains how both Fed policy and the new administration's focus on restricting immigration, cutting deficits, and increasing tariffs look less positive than expected. Elliott points to extremely high growth expectations priced into both stocks and bonds, while noting professional investors are showing the lowest conviction levels in nearly a decade amid policy uncertainty.

Links:

X: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited

Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/

0:00 Introduction and welcome back

1:02 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" market outlook

2:50 Analysis of Fed policy and fiscal expectations

4:39 Discussion of inflation and tariff impacts

6:19 Growth expectations vs reality

7:36 Key risks for 2025

9:27 Bond yields and stock market valuations

14:12 Consumer sentiment and partisan impacts

16:38 Tech bubble comparisons and market setup

17:19 MAG-7 vs broader market earnings expectations

19:39 Fund manager positioning and low conviction levels

23:09 Retail vs professional investor positioning

25:52 Concerns about market timing and catalysts

28:37 Gold analysis and Eastern demand

31:46 Closing remarks and contact information

Billionaire investor and tech entrepreneur Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and now the CEO and Revolution, joins Julia La Roche on episode 29 to discuss his newest book, "The Rise Of The Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream."

In 2014, Case launched Revolution's "Rise of the Rest," an initiative to accelerate the growth of startups based outside of Silicon Valley. Rise of the Rest is based on a simple idea: talent is equally distributed, but opportunity is not.

Historically, 75% of venture capital money has flown to three states — California, New York, and Massachusetts, resulting in a "brain drain," where people who grew up in Middle America move to Silicon Valley for opportunities.

Since 2014, Case and the Revolution team have traveled more than 11,000 miles to 43 cities on the Rise of the Rest bus to visit entrepreneurial ecosystems and highlight great companies and entrepreneurs. On each tour, they hit five cities in five days, meeting with startups and elected officials. Rise of the Rest hosts a pitch competition and invests $100,000 in a local startup.

As a result of our tours, Revolution launched two $150 million Rise of the Rest Seed Funds to invest in seed stage companies between the coasts. Rise of The Rest has attracted big-name backers, including John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Eric Schmidt, Tory Burch, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Howard Schultz, and many more.

0:00 Intro

0:35 Traveling the U.S. by bus

2:00 American cities on the rise

3:25 Top-tier returns outside of Silicon Valley

8:35 75% of venture capital goes to 3 states

11:46 Peak Silicon Valley?

15:10 The Third Wave of the Internet

17:30 Something is brewing out there

19:30 Dealing with the skepticism

21:28 200 investments in 100 cities

23:05 New venture firms launched outside CA, NY, MA

24:20 Evaluating entrepreneurs

26:30 Startups fuel job growth

29:15 Seeing America by road

30:22 Why is America divided?

33:50 Slowing the brain drain

36:15 The boomerang effect

39:09 America’s success is not guaranteed

41:45 Need for immigration reform

43:11 Early days of the internet

47:47 Director of New Pizza Development

49:24 Advice for the next-gen entrepreneur

Legendary trader Peter Borish, president of the Computer Trading Corporation, joins Julia La Roche on episode 97. In this episode, Peter shares his macro outlook, and why we’re in the early stages of a longer term rising rate cycle. He also revisits his time working with Paul Tudor Jones at Tudor Investment Corp, the 1987 stock market crash and its aftermath, and some of the lessons and principles he’s learned over the years. 

Links: 

https://twitter.com/pborish

https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-borish-bb54119/

00:00 Intro

0:43 Macro view 

2:30 This really isn’t the 70s 

4:55 More like post WWII 

7:14 Tax rate

8:42 Debt

11:38 Implications of higher rates

13:50 We’ll see wages go up more

14:53 S&P likely to move down from here 

16:10 Difference between cautious/bearish 

17:15 Concern is making policy mistakes 

18:30 More on the markets 

21:03 Risk management 

23:10 Learning from mistakes 

25:00 You have to trade your own personality 

27:30 Advice for young people 

29:50 1987 Crash 

35:00 Robin Hood Foundation

38:00 Assessment of New York City today 

40:30 Return to office 

42:00 Brady Commission 

44:40 Paul Tudor Jones 

48:30 Parting thoughts 

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.” 

Links: 

https://www.lynalden.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show 

1:11 Macro picture 

4:18 1940s comparison 

9:04 Fiscal spiral 

12:49 Inflation in Egypt 

20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation 

23:20 Stagflationary outlook 

25:30 Why is money broken? 

28:44 160 currency bubbles 

30:33 Why is the system so antiquated? 

34:45 Self publishing 

36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency 

45:00 Gold 

47:41 Bitcoin 

51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble? 

55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin 

57:43 Parting thoughts 

Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020.

Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge.

Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading.

In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern.

0:00 Intro

0:31 St. Petersburg to America

1:38 Early interest in Wall Street

2:53 Poker and investing

4:39 Psychology of trading

8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book

12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp

13:33 Two words: Policy lag

17:04 Outlook for rates

20:22 Implications of deflation

24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars?

27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression

30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story

33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position

34:34 What the inflation camp is missing

37:58 Focus on the Fed

42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio

44:50 Why bonds will have more upside

46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation?

48:12 Final thoughts

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108.

In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot.

Links:

Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show 

1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit 

2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon

3:34 Commercial real estate risk 

4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income 

5:30 Commercial, not consumer 

6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing 

9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed 

11:24 Landlords are a small business 

13:00 Silent crisis

14:50 Impact on banks 

16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive 

17:30 A strange economic cycle 

19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market 

20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade

21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks

22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting? 

23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers 

27:00 Parting thoughts 

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy

02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics

04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure

06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending

09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency

11:24 Commentary on government sector competency

13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts

16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector

19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market

22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times

24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook

26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates

28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation from the economy, markets, and investing to seeking adventure and lessons for younger generations. 

In this episode, Julia and Jim revisit his Guinness World Record adventures, including his motorcycle ride across six continents in the early 90s and his journey across 116 countries in a custom-made yellow Mercedes convertible at the turn of the century. 

In the conversation, Jim shares his views on the global macro economy and markets. The 79-year-old investor predicts that the next bear market will be “the worst” in his lifetime because of the explosion in debt. 

Elsewhere, Jim weighs in on debt, inflation, the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin, commodities, agriculture, and China. He also imparts lessons for the younger generations. 

0:00 Seeking adventure 

2:22 Lessons learned traveling the world 

4:30 How traveling shaped Rogers’ investing 

6:30 Alabama to Wall Street 

9:06 Working with Soros 

10:00 October 19, 1987 

12:15 Questioning everything 

16:20 Macro outlook 

18:15 “Worst bear market” in life 

20:30 Longer-term consequences of debt 

23:36 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar 

25:19 Prescriptions for the U.S. 

26:07 Thoughts on Bitcoin 

27:50 Protecting yourself from inflation 

30:00 View on agriculture 

31:48 Secular trends 

34:06 Investing opportunities 

35:50 Bond Bubble 

37:17 Short-selling 

40:25 China 

43:20 Lessons in life, investing 

49:00 Views on education 

52:40 Thoughts on the future of the world 

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.  *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.  

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer

1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence

5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates

7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens

11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try

15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy

19:00 Five pillars of prosperity

24:17 Tariffs

28:30 Trade and geopolitics

33:30 Trade is not a political weapon

42:50 Government spending

50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events

53:55 A Harris presidency

57:20 Parting thoughts

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his prediction for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. 

Links: 

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

twitter.com/BiancoResearch 

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and macro outlook 

03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market

6:12 The pathway to 5.5%

8:08 The Fed's response to inflation

11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing

15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year

21:40 Why can’t we get to 2%? 

28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year

31:16 US debt crosses $34T

36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF 

44:40 Closing remarks 

46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong

Joe Fahmy (@jfahmy), a portfolio manager at Zor Capital, LLC, a New York-based investment management firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 47 to share his 2023 market outlook.

In this episode, Joe shares his 2023 outlook and why he thinks the biotech sector is poised to outperform the S&P. He also reflects back on lessons gleaned from the challenging environment in 2022.

Joe explains why having a big-picture macro view is important, but there’s no need to obsess over it. He also shares why “don’t fight the Fed” has resonated with this trading and investment style in recent years and how folks should think about what that phrase really means.

Joe has nearly 25 years of trading experience, during which he developed his investment strategy. His extensive knowledge of technical analysis, market forecasting, and risk management has landed him appearances on Wall Street Week, CNBC, Fox Business, ABC News, and CNN Money. He is a regular contributor to Yahoo Finance.

0:00 2023 market outlook

1:00 Don’t fight the Fed

1:34 Don’t fight the Fed works both ways

2:15 A new uptrend in the market this year?

2:40 What the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” really means

3:30 Understanding the big picture

4:20 Does the macro matter more than ever?

5:30 Important not to be obsessive over macro

6:29 Opportunities in 2023

7:55 Why biotech could outperform the S&P

9:53 Energy thesis

11:13 A return stock picking?

14:00 Where are we headed in the markets?

16:00 The big institutions control the markets. Period.

17:45 How to watch what the biggest players are doing in the market

19:33 A shift in the sentiment?

22:00 Lessons from 2022

25:44 Book recommendations for trading

28:52 What’s Joe watching in 2023?

31:23 When will we see the pause?

32:14 How much does the economic picture matter?

35:00 Parting thoughts

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on episode 94 to break down markets and the opportunities he sees in this current environment.

Todd has been a CNBC contributor since 2010 and continues to provide actionable, insightful, and light-hearted commentary for CNBC.  He is known for blending technical and fundamental analysis to interpret the ever-changing market landscape to produce specific trading and investment ideas for CNBC viewers and his clients. Currently, he is one of the only CNBC contributors who manages his actual investment account live with full transparency on the ‘TradingNation’ web show.  He has appeared on various shows such as CNBC Fast Money Halftime show, Fast Money, Squawk Box, Power Lunch, Squawk Alley, Squawk on the Street, Money in Motion, and the CNBC Stock Draft.

He started his career as a professional proprietary trader of NYSE listed stocks in San Diego, California in 2001, then moved to Connors Capital, A CTA and hedge fund in 2004, and then back east on Wall St with Forex.com / Gain Capital.  In that dual role, Todd wrote the widely followed Strategy of the Day research report, while trading for the parent company’s hedge fund GAIN capital during the 2008 financial crisis. Todd successfully guided his readers through that wild market time building enough of a following to launch his own research business TradingAnalysis.com in 2010.

Since 2010, TradingAnalysis has grown to serve clients in over 100 countries as Todd and his team guide their clients through the markets by trading their actual live portfolios showing the good, bad, and the ugly. He is gearing up to launch his own wealth management business in 2021.

Todd attended St Lawrence University while majoring in economics and competing on their Division I alpine ski racing team. He transferred out to focus on business at University at Albany, earning a Bachelors of Economics, where he continued his ski racing career.

Follow Todd on Twitter @toddgordonTA

0:00 Intro

1:16 Macro setup today

2:25 New age of investing

4:30 Soundbites and hot takes

6:00 Bullish?

8:18 Interpretation of the yield curve

12:35 Disinflationary environments and stocks

15:07 Tech boom

20:00 Rally is broader than you think

23:07 Relationship between US yields and value/growth rotation

27:23 Stocks in a rising rate environment

31:07 What have the bears gotten wrong?

33:54 Elliott Wave, explained

38:05 Dow to double in the next five years?

41:00 Made a mistake from being too bearish?

42:30 Parting thoughts

46:35 Active v. passive

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information

Omeed Malik (@RealOmeedMalik), founder and CEO of Farvahar Partners, a boutique merchant bank and broker/dealer which invests partner capital into growth businesses and acts as a liquidity provider of private placements on behalf of companies and institutional investors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 71 to share what he sees as an emerging parallel economy in the U.S. that’s in stark contrast to ESG.

Omeed is the chairman and CEO of a SPAC called Colombier Acquisition Corp. that is taking PublicSq., a marketplace for “pro-America business and consumers,” public later this year. He also started a fund called 1789 Capital to provide “venture and growth capital to companies building the next era of American prosperity.” 

Prior to starting his own firm, Omeed was a Managing Director and the Global Head of the Hedge Fund Advisory Business at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Omeed was also the founder and head of the Emerging Manager Program within the Global Equities business. In this capacity, Omeed was charged with selecting both established and new hedge funds for the firm to partner with and oversaw the allocation of financing/prime brokerage, capital strategy, business consulting and talent introduction resources.

Before joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Omeed was a Senior Vice President at MF Global, where he helped reorganize the firm’s distribution platform globally and developed execution and clearing relationships with institutional clients.

An experienced financial services professional and securities attorney, Omeed was a corporate lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP working on transactional matters in the capital markets, corporate governance, private equity and bankruptcy fields.

Omeed has also worked in the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Omeed received a JD, with Honors, from Emory Law School (where he serves on the Advisory Board) and a BA in Philosophy and Political Science, Cum Laude, from Colgate University. He holds Series 7, 63, 3, 79, and 24 registrations. 

Omeed is a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Centennial Society Member of the Economic Club of New York and a Chairman’s Circle Member of the Milken Institute. Omeed is a Contributing Editor and minority owner of The Daily Caller.

0:00 Intro

2:06 Welcoming Omeed Malik

2:50 From D.C. to corporate law to Wall Street

3:30 Started as a speechwriter in D.C. 

4:11 Working for Jon Corzine at MF Global

5:12 Launching Farvahar in 2018, advising founders

5:38 New opportunity in a new economy called the “patriot economy” 

6:33 D.C. is a place where you get a lot of power, but not money

7:20 The country has changed

8:05 No longer identifying as a Democrat

8:33 2016 election of Trump

9:12 Rise of China 

11:33 Leaving the Democratic Party 

14:15 Tulsi Gabbard 

16:22 China is the most significant geopolitical threat in my lifetime 

20:16 ‘Red America’ is a huge TAM 

21:02 ESG is a marketing scam 

23:00 ESG backlash 

26:20 Opportunity for a parallel economy focused on ‘EIG’ (Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Growth)

28:30 A $7T opportunity 

33:00 A bifurcated economy 

34:30 Taking PublicSq. public via SPAC

35:00 Bud Light Dylan Mulvaney backlash led to spike in search for alternative beer

36:30 Scratching the surface of the opportunity 

38:40 Changes on a personal level

40:00 TikTok a ‘Trojan Horse’ in a modern-day Opium War 

41:00 Evisceration of the middle class

42:00 Ceding liberty when you work for a large corporation 

44:41 Need to reevaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China 

51:27 Optimistic for the future of the U.S.

53:00 Big Tech’s “Devil’s bargain” 

55:00 Impact on relationships 

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation.

0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back 

1:18 Macro view ahead of an election 

3:00 Recession outlook 

4:48 Inflation 

7:03 Bond market 

10:15 Inflation globally 

11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment 

12:20 Silver, gold 

14:13 Stocks 

15:08 Short-selling 

17:40 U.S. Dollar 

21:34 Moving to Singapore 

25:30 Guinness World Records 

Macro researcher Jim Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. Bianco’s research style is macro with a bent toward fixed income and dabbles in the traditional macro to highlight things that people are not focused on or emphasizing enough.

In the conversation, Bianco highlights three bubbles that existed pre-2020 that were unrelated to the financial markets, including cheap labor, goods, and energy. According to Bianco, the pandemic pulled forward 20 to 30 years of change, and we are not returning to a pre-2020 way of life of globalization, cheap goods, and cheap energy. 

Bianco notes that this change drives financial and economic volatility and persistent and chronic inflation. To be sure, Bianco doesn’t see it as an apocalyptic or pessimistic scenario but rather one of significant change and volatility. 

Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D1O4pr8mdKA

Follow Jim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 212 to discuss the global liquidity cycle, markets, and why there's uncertainty in the year ahead.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Links: 

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

Timestamps:

00:08 Introduction to Michael Howell

01:00 Global liquidity and market cycles overview

03:10 Global liquidity cycle visualization and trends

06:14 Discussion of debt refinancing vs. new capital financing

09:02 The approaching debt maturity wall and market challenges

12:46 Warning signs and historical financial crises

16:04 Bond market concerns and inflation outlook

21:37 Yield curve analysis and market distortions

23:24 Investment strategy recommendations

26:18 Gold and cryptocurrency as monetary inflation hedges

28:36 Investment regime cycles explanation

33:02 2025 outlook and mounting challenges

34:53 China's economic situation and policy constraints

39:10 Stock market euphoria vs. bond market signals

41:20 Final thoughts and portfolio allocation advice

Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 74 for a deep dive into macro, the regional banking crisis, inflation dynamics, and more.

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.

Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard.

0:00 Intro

1:43 Welcome Bob Elliott 

2:27 Macro picture 

3:30 Many people haven’t experienced a typical macro cycle in their careers

4:48 Income-led cycle, not a credit-led cycle 

6:33 Areas that aren’t sensitive to rise in rates

9:33 Banking crisis 

9:54 Not like 2008

13:30 Not a credit problem. It’s a policy problem. 

16:00 The bank run issue 

19:00 We’ve entered a point in the crisis where the ineffective policy framework is creating the instability 

20:10 Bank runs are self-reinforcing 

21:00 Speculators creating sizable moves in banking stocks 

23:00 Best way to deal with banking crisis 

25:35 Impact from the Fed’s policies 

29:18 Commercial real estate risk 

32:55 Globalization 

36:16 Disconnect between the market and the Fed 

38:42 Higher for longer most probable 

40:20 Paths that align with the bond market pricing 

42:30 Likelihood of getting back to the 2% inflation target 

44:32 Inflation entrenchment 

46:20 Risk Fed faces with inflation 

47:46 Wage inflation 

48:50 Raising prices and not seeing demand destruction 

51:33 Teaching macro 

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian), Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy.

Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust. 

He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half. 

0:00 Intro 

0:40 Becoming a contrarian 

2:40 Macro view 

5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators 

8:40 What is the market forecasting? 

11:22 Another melt up in the market 

16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market

18:24 Economic and market cycles 

20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024

23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop

29:00 Deflation

34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade

41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar 

44:00 Treasuries 

47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’

49:20 Challenge to the thesis 

52:30 Parting thoughts  

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93. 

Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society.

A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement.

Links: 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration

The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734

0:00 Intro

1:21 Generational Theory 

5:00 Generations arrive in patterns 

8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime

11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997 

13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts 

15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic 

16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning 

20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy 

21:18 Generational archetypes 

27:43 Millennials as the “Hero” 

33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s 

39:00 An internal or external conflict? 

44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning 

49:00 Relationships 

50:28 What keeps Neil up at night? 

53:00 Optimistic about the future 

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins Episode 222 of the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why he believes the Department of Defense, not the Federal Reserve, now drives U.S. economic policy. Gromen warns that if the incoming Trump administration attempts efficiency cuts (DOGE) before devaluing the dollar, "they will fail spectacularly" and "what happened in '08 will look like a tea party." He explains why rebuilding America's hollowed-out defense industrial base requires significant spending that can't be constrained by bond market concerns, shares his portfolio strategy favoring gold, Bitcoin, and T-bills over long-term bonds, and explores how a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help rebalance global trade.

This episode was recorded on Dec. 16.

Links:

website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen

00:01 Introduction and welcome Luke Gromen

00:47 Two key themes for 2025

03:12 DOD driving economic decisions, not Fed/Treasury

04:58 Bond market dynamics and military spending

07:25 Defense industrial base concerns

09:16 Historical parallels to WWII financing

12:07 Currency as release valve

14:01 Impact on equities, Bitcoin, gold

16:04 Foreign vs. domestic bondholders

21:06 U.S. debt situation

24:03 Healthcare and entitlement challenges

31:10 Social Security reform mathematics 35:42 Historical dollar devaluations

41:10 DOGE and order of operations

44:15 Optimism about dollar devaluation

47:04 Portfolio allocation strategy

56:09 Strategic Bitcoin reserve discussion

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. He is a regular contributor to Real Clear Markets and a columnist for the Epoch Times and is active on Twitter as well as He has been a guest on countless programs, including MacroVoices, and Real Vision, for his insights into the Eurodollar system, LIBOR and repo/securities lending markets., etc.

During episode 67, Jeff explains that since late last year, markets have been "screaming bloody murder" in a way that hasn't been since 2007. According to Jeff, markets are hedged for a 2008-style scenario.

0:00 Introduction

1:53 Welcome Jeff Snider

2:40 Macro picture is “all sorts of ugly”

3:29 Economy in 2021 was an “artificial high”

4:00 Not just about macro, also about monetary system too

4:40 Still in the beginning stages

5:11 The economy is looking worse in short to intermediate-term outlook

6:00 Base case is mass layoffs

6:33 A false sense of confidence about the unemployment rate

9:48 Unemployment

11:43 The market is screaming bloody murder

12:48 A 2008-style scenario

14:40 Something wrong in the global system

17:30 How’d we get here?

18:20 Misconceptions around money printing and interest rates

19:45 Suffering from a lack of credit growth

22:06 The Eurodollar story

26:00 The Fed doesn’t print money

27:50 Distortions in the economy

29:00 Fed is ‘smoke and mirrors’

33:00 What is money?

34:34 Banking crisis

36:23 Monetary system has become incredibly fragile

37:33 Fragility of the monetary system

38:07 A shortage of good quality collateral

43:00 Treasury Bills

46:00 De-dollarization story

49:00 Shortage of dollars

49:37 The Eurodollar system will be replaced at some point

53:00 The shadow money system

55:00 Eurodollar system is a black hole

58:00 Digital currencies

1:01:37 What keeps Jeff up at night?

James Grant (@grantspub), founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a leading journal on financial markets since 1983, joins Julia La Roche on episode 55.

Jim Grant is also the author of multiple financial history and biography books. His journalism has been featured in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs. He has appeared on 60 Minutes, Jim Lehrer’s News Hour, and CBS Evening News.  

In this episode, Jim and Julia covered the monetary realm, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. indebtedness, gold, the Federal Reserve, inflation, bonds, and more.   

According to Jim, the theme in the short run is disinflation, but inflation is for the long term.

"We've boiled this down to a couple of headlines: We think that inflation is for the long term. We think that this is inherently inflationary setup we have with runaway public borrowing and with an unchecked and undisciplined engine of credit creation —the Fed — so inflation for the long run. But for the short term, we think it's things rather disinflationary, meaning the rate of rise and inflation is going to subside. And conditions will tighten for the financial markets,” Jim tells Julia, adding that, "Inflation is never transitory, at least not in the modern era, because prices never come down again, when they go up, they stay up." 

0:00 Intro

0:38 How we got here

1:30 Monetary realm as an area of concern

2:29 Defining the dollar

2:57 Biggest change in sweep of financial history

4:30 Gold standard

5:50 Defining the dollar? How has it evolved

6:50 Weaknesses of the dollar

9:47 Lockdowns wouldn’t have been feasible

10:30 Origins of the great bulge in public debt

13:55 Fed actions during pandemic

16:43 Excesses in our financial and fiscal lives haven’t been fully felt yet

17:37 Rate of growth in debt far outstripping means to service it

20:30 Fed is going to carry us all into the poorhouse

22:00 Worrying about the debt

26:59 Outlook on the U.S. dollar

28:30 A poisoned chalice

30:00 Better if we lost the world reserve currency franchise

32:57 Gold

36:06 Central bank gold buying

38:20 Higher for longer?

41:00 Why the Fed might retreat?

45:00 Inverted yield curve

49:00 Does the yield curve predict a recession?

51:30 Bond market and interest conundrum

58:00 The Forgotten Depression

1:01:00 Setting up Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership."

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen

01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending

02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending

04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy

06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation

08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025

10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook

11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion

13:21 Recession probability assessment

15:25 GSE release implications

19:45 Best approach to GSE reform

21:47 Federal deficit challenges

23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze

25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy

27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury

28:36 Market outlook for 2025

30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics

Today's guest is Ryan Williams, Cadre's founder and executive chairman. Cadre is a tech-enabled commercial real estate investing platform backed by Goldman Sachs, Andreessen Horowitz, Ford Foundation, Harvard Management Company, Khosla Ventures, Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, and others.

A native of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, entrepreneurship runs deep in Ryan's veins. In this episode, Ryan and Julia discuss his entrepreneurial journey and building that entrepreneurial muscle, from his time selling sports sweatbands as a teenager to first investing in real estate as a college student. 

With his college roommate, Ryan began his career in real estate investing in Atlanta during the 2008 subprime credit crisis. The pair purchased foreclosed properties using pooled funds from classmates and, in many cases, helped those families buy back the homes. After working at Goldman Sachs and Blackstone Group, Ryan launched Cadre, which sits at the intersection of finance, technology, and real estate. 

Ryan recognizes that real estate ownership is a significant driver of economic prosperity. Since its founding in 2014, Cadre has closed more than $5 billion in transactions, delivered a greater than 25% net average IRR, and returned more than $400 million to investors. His vision involves opening up more access to investing in commercial real estate. 

Best-selling author Jim Rickards joins Julia La Roche on episode 21 of the podcast to discuss his outlook on why a severe recession is coming and how to prepare for it.

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. He is the author upcoming book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

In this episode, Rickards outlines his thesis for why a severe recession is coming. According to Rickards, "we're going to wake up this winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market." He notes that the stock market is "starting to get the message," and those who believe in the Fed pivot narrative are missing two huge fallacies.

Rickards also warns on the dire debt situation in the U.S., with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%, well past the critical threshold. As Rickards notes, the U.S. is now "well past the point where you can borrow your way to growth, or you can borrow your way out of a debt crisis, and we're heading for a debt crisis."

Elsewhere, Rickards shares his views on why inflation will turn to deflation, a "central banker's worse nightmare" and "pure poison" for debtors. He also details his outlook on the U.S. dollar and weighs in on currency fluctuations globally.

0:00 Intro

0:44 Views on the global economy

1:35 U.S. ‘almost certainly’ in a recession

3:08 What’s coming is a ‘very severe’ recession

3:43 Supply chains breaking down

4:50 Bloated inventories, slashing prices

5:15 Fed tightening rates into weakness

5:45 The stock market is starting to get the message

6:23 The Fed pivot crowd face huge fallacies in that narrative

10:40 Bottom might not be until late 2023

11:40 We’re going to wake up with winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market

12:30 Explanation of financial crises and recessions

19:30 Recession may be worse than 2008

21:01 Odds of a financial crisis are ‘uncomfortably high’

22:26 Fed raising rates to curb inflation will be effective at a ‘very high cost’

24:02 Deflation/disinflation coming down the tracks

24:46 2 types of inflation explained

29:16 The impact of debt is like an extremely powerful glacier

35:40 Thoughts on MMT

44:30 Debt does matter

45:05 Deflation is ‘pure poison’ when it comes to the debt-to-GDP ratio

51:09 Thoughts on U.S. Dollar, currency fluctuations

58:46 Diversifying your portfolio

Joseph Wang (@fedguy12), the CIO of Monetary Macro and a former senior trader on the Open Markets Desk, joins Julia La Roche on episode 69 for a wide-ranging conversation on the monetary system, macro economy, and recent banking panic. 

Wang is also the author of Central Banking 101, which is now an Amazon best-seller, and operates Fedguy.com, a blog on developments in the financial markets.

During this episode, Wang said it’s almost inevitable that the U.S. will have a decade of persistently high inflation. He also mentioned that this trend is difficult to combat and is driven mainly by the culture and politics of the era. According to Wang, we are in the early stages of the inflationary cycle.

0:00 Introduction

1:40 Welcoming Joseph Wang on the show

2:11 From practicing law to trading on the Open Markets Desk

3:20 Practicing law is boring

4:02 Graduating in 2008 

5:38 Open Markets Desk at the Fed 

7:02 Central Banking 101 

8:26 Misconceptions around the monetary system 

10:50 Disconnect between school and real-life in macro

11:58 Commercial banks create money out of thin air 

13:49 Eurodollar system 

16:42 Eurodollar futures market 

19:08 Market is fighting the Fed 

20:17 Eurodollar banking 

21:33 De-dollarization

24:00 There aren’t a lot of good alternatives to the U.S. Dollar

25:00 What it takes to be a reserve currency 

25:45 Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar 

26:58 Bitcoin 

28:06 Will the U.S. Dollar lose its reserve status in our lifetime? 

28:47 Implications of the U.S. dollar losing its global reserve status 

30:33 Inflation will be a lot higher than we are used to 

31:08 Big driver of inflation is the culture and politics of the era

34:27 Macro outlook 

35:46 Demographic changes

39:48 Banking crisis is over 

44:42 Intervention during the banking crisis 

49:19 Is banking safer for depositors? 

50:15 Fed is in inflation-fighting mode 

53:38 Parting thoughts

In this episode, Julia is joined by Gerry Parsky, founder and chairman of private equity firm Aurora Capital Partners and partner of Endurance Partners. 

When Parsky was 31, he was appointed Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, a position he held from 1974 until 1977. In that role, Parsky was responsible for capital markets policy. He also was responsible for all of the Treasury Department’s international affairs, including trade policy, international monetary policy, investment and energy policy; relations with industrial and developing countries; and U. S. policy relating to the international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. 

In this episode, Julia and Gerry discuss the importance of mentorship, public service, lessons from the 1970s, inflation, energy, private equity, and more.  

Dr. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Emeritus at Columbia Business School, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his recent paper, ⁠Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements⁠.

In this episode, Dr. Calomiris examines the state of the economy in the near-term and longer-term, as well as the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. According to Dr. Calomiris, there's a significant probability of a fiscal dominance problem arriving in the next decade. Fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts, also known as "inflation taxation."

He points out the need for political leadership and accountability in addressing the unsustainable promises of entitlement spending. Dr. Calomiris explains what could trigger panic in the bond market and the potential solutions, including taxing the banking system. He also discusses the implications of such policies on the banking system and the broader economy. Overall, he emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term fiscal challenges to avoid a crisis in the future.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and background

01:01 Short-run and long-run perspective of the economy

03:23 The dysfunctional state of the economy, the blame is ours

06:37 Generational government accounting and political responsibility

10:06 We are not a grown-up society right now 

11:20 Debt situation in the U.S. 

13:53 The point of no return? 

17:50 Less than a decade to make the political decision

19:50 Deficits, recessionary environment, and the consequences

23:00 Signs to look out for in the bond market 

24:40 Fiscal Dominance and its definition

27:30 Will the government tax the banking system into almost oblivion? 

28:50 Taxing the banking system and the inflation tax

34:00 If nothing changes, how implied annual inflation could be 35-40%

37:00 Fed could raise reserve requirements and pay zero interest to expand the inflation tax base, lower implied inflation rate

40:00 Impact on the banking system

46:17 The power of the Federal Reserve

51:00 Bitcoin

54:19 Parting Thoughts and Advice

Links:

Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements

Fragile By Design The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.

Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Show open

1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman

1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds

2:28 Harald Malmgren 

5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade 

6:25 Assessment of macro environment 

7:24 The Fed 

9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate 

15:00 Liquidity

18:00 Liquidity impact

23:30 China 

25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model 

29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China 

34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country 

37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult 

43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China 

46:40 China Is The Next Japan 

51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade” 

55:30 EV cars

58:00 Parting thoughts

Herb Greenberg (@HerbGreenberg) is the editor of the Empire Financial Daily e-letter, Herb Greenberg's QUANT-X System, and Empire Real Wealth.

Previously, he was the co-founder of Pacific Square Research and Greenberg Meritz Research & Analytics – both independent, short-biased investment research firms.

Greenberg spent more than 40 years as a financial journalist at some of the country's leading newspapers, websites, and broadcast media, where he covered almost every industry.

He served as senior stocks commentator at CNBC and was a financial correspondent at the Chicago Tribune. He also spent 10 years as the daily business columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle, during which time he started his five-year run as Fortune's monthly Against the Grain columnist and was the morning business reporter for San Francisco's KRON-TV.

When the Internet and online media were still emerging, Greenberg was one of the first mainstream journalists to make the shift online, when he became senior columnist at TheStreet. He later shifted to the same role at MarketWatch. When Dow Jones bought out MarketWatch, he added a weekend investor column for the Wall Street Journal to the mix.

Earlier in his career, Greenberg was a reporter at Crain's Chicago Business and a business reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He also spent a year as an analyst at a risk arbitrage firm.

Greenberg holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Miami and completed the Herbert J. Davenport Fellowship at the University of Missouri.

0:00 Show Open

1:54 Welcome Herb Greenberg

2:40 Wanted to be a radio disc jockey, turned out to be a business journalist

4:06 Getting hooked on reporting 

5:40 Path to the University of Miami 

6:00 Late bloomer in journalism career 

9:00 From Miami to St. Paul

10:25 Herb’s big break at Crain’s (the “bootcamp” of his career)

14:00 ‘Golden era’ of business journalism 

15:08 Herb wrote the ‘original Business Insider’ column

18:08 The story Herb never talks about 

22:00 State of business journalism today 

24:44 Stories 

27:14 Assessment of the markets and the economy 

28:44 Paying the price for ridiculously low rates 

30:00 Discrepancy between what’s real and the data 

31:16 Markets are messy 

32:55 Wish I had been more aggressive in funding 401k and IRA

34:55 Best question anyone has ever asked me 

37:57 Family office analysts are happier than hedge fund analysts 

42:00 Red flags 

46:00 Silicon Valley Bank, regional bank failures

49:00 The ETF Monster https://www.cnbc.com/2010/09/13/man-vs-machine-the-etf-monster.html

51:30 Blaming the short-seller narrative 

53:10 Concept of avoiding loss

53:50 ChatGPT is the ‘new weather’ on earnings calls

58:00 Longevity 

Tom Lee (@fundstrat), managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, joins Julia La Roche on episode 60 to discuss macro and markets.

In this episode, Tom makes a case that the markets bottomed in October 2022, and stocks have already been in an uptrend. He also shares what he thinks the bears are getting wrong.

With nearly 30 years of macro markets and equity research experience, Lee is one of Wall Street's most widely recognized and followed macro strategists. He’s best known for his evidence-based work on equity markets and fast-growing technologies, including digital assets and wireless technologies.

Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get a complimentary 30-day membership to FS Insight by using this link: http://fsinsight.com/julialaroche

0:00 Intro

0:31 30 years on Wall Street

3:10 How markets work

5:19 Psychology plays a far bigger role than people realize

5:54 Macro outlook

7:01 Inflation appears to be slowing

8:03 Stock market is starting to see that the valley is behind us

9:18 Inflation peaked last year

10:31 Market bottomed in October 2022

10:50 Two things happened that is a big deal for the market

12:05 What are the bears missing?

13:58 Stock market was bad between February and October

14:49 Bias in the markets

16:50 Contrarian

19:21 Recognizing biases

22:22 Investors have to pay attention to people in their 20s, 30s

23:50 Tech is more important than any other decade

25:28 Only two ways to solve the labor shortage

28:00 Thoughts on AI and large language models

31:59 The Fed

36:13 Stock market is a good discounting mechanism

38:17 Yield curve is important to respect

42:20 Why have we avoided a recession?

45:00 Tech layoffs

51:06 Contrarian ideas

55:35 Biggest risk

Ritholtz Wealth Management COO Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata), author of “Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth” and the popular finance blog Of Dollars And Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 23. 

In 2017, Nick made it his New Year’s Resolution to publish a weekly blog post. His “Of Dollars And Data” blog has grown in popularity, and his writing habit turned into a book deal. 

In the conversation, Nick discusses his strategies for saving money and investing. He shared the biggest life perpetuated by personal finance experts, his “2X Rule” that lets you enjoy your money. Nick also explained his argument for why you shouldn’t pick individual stocks and why you shouldn’t max out your 401k. The self-described permabull also explained why investing is still the way to go, even during turbulent times. 

0:00 Intro 

0:31 Insights into the book publishing business 

4:20 New Year’s Resolution to write

7:59 Saving is for the poor, investing is for the rich 

12:13 How much should you save? 

14:08 Biggest lie in personal finance 

15:43 “The 2x Rule” 

17:39 Retirement is about more than money 

19:50 Thoughts on the FIRE movement 

21:21 Think like an owner

23:13 Don’t buy individual stocks 

26:35 Talented or lucky? 

28:54 Thoughts on dollar cost averaging 

31:46 How to buy during turbulent times

37:00 How do you know when it’s a buying opportunity 

40:56 Why you shouldn’t max out your 401k 

43:18 State of financial education 

44:33 Why you’ll never feel rich 

47:44 The most important asset 

48:49 Begin life as a growth stock, end as a value stock

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 120 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

In this episode, Dr. Shilling predicts an imminent recession, citing key indicators such as the inverted yield curve and actions of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to curb inflation even at the risk of triggering a recession. He expects the Fed to be slower in cutting rates in the event of a recession, emphasizing their focus on ensuring inflation is under control and considering the labor market's slower response to economic changes.

Elsewhere, Shilling explores the correlation between Treasury bond yields and inflation, indicating that excess supply leads to lower inflation and, thus, lower interest rates. He believes the peak of interest rates has been reached and expects a rally in Treasuries. 

He also shares his investment approach, favoring long treasuries, the US dollar, and short positions in stocks and commodities like copper. He's skeptical about the potential of commercial real estate and sees it as a current bubble.

0:00 Welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to the show

0:53 Macro picture today, recession outlook 

3:40 Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target 

4:30 Globalization 

6:30 Rates and inflation 

12:18 Bond market 

15:20 Hard landing 

18:13 What’s ahead for the Fed? 

20:00 Higher for longer? Maybe, but I’m not convinced

21:17 Winners and losers in this environment? 

23:44 Oil 

26:26 U.S. Dollar outlook 

28:09 Agnostic on gold 

29:13 Bullish on Treasuries 

30:46 Housing 

37:37 A contrarian? 

40:27 Commercial real estate bubble 

42:46 Forecasting as an art 

46:00 Beekeeping 

51:20 Parting thoughts 

Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund), the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, returns to the podcast for episode 79.

Brent, who believes we’re heading for a currency crisis, is the creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, a framework he developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.  

During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory and what’s changed since publicly sharing his thesis five years ago. Brent weighed in on the de-dollarization narrative and why he expects the U.S. dollar to go higher. He also made a case for investing in gold. 

0:00 Show Open 

1:22 Welcome Brent Johnson 

2:04 Macro framework 

2:57 Heading toward a sovereign debt and currency crisis 

4:04 Rate hikes will likely pinch economy in back half of the year

4:50 The Dollar Milkshake Theory, explained 

6:52 Why we’ll likely see easy money again

7:45 “This is not a story that ends well”  

10:00 Has the Dollar Milkshake Theory changed in 5 years?

13:42 Last year solidified our thesis 

17:37 Catalysts for a higher dollar

19:19 Credit crunch 

21:43 Geopolitical concerns 

22:40 De-dollarization 

29:49 A blowback from rate hikes? 

35:00 Headlines don’t match reality 

37:33 Debt ceiling short-term and long-term implications 

44:14 Why is the Fed continuing to hike? 

48:20 Why the Fed will pivot 

50:05 Regional banks 

52:52 Owning physical gold as an insurance policy 

55:05 Cash for optionality 

56:56 Camino de Santiago 

1:01:01 Parting thoughts 

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis. 

In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy. 

Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews.

Links: 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi

GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/

https://www.realvision.com/

0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal 

1:23 Macro view today

4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now

6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer” 

7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think

8:27 Paying interest on the debt

10:15 Did we experience a recession already? 

12:29 Inflation 

14:15 False narratives in macro 

16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement 

19:08 Destruction of the American Dream 

21:51 The debt problem 

26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code 

30:27 The darker view 

32:40 Higher for longer 

34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment 

39:40 Robotics and UBI  

43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption 

48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs 

53:07 Acceleration of AI 

54:04 Fourth Turning 

55:30 Parting thoughts 

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Prominent First Amendment attorney Greg Lukianoff, a New York Times best-selling author and the President and CEO of The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (previously called the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), joins Julia on this episode for a wide-ranging discussion on free speech.

In this discussion, Lukianoff explains what free speech is, some of the biggest misconceptions surrounding free speech, and the importance of fostering a free speech culture. He also covers his work on college campuses and why free speech has worsened since 2015. The conversation also covers FIRE’s expanded mission in the workplace, why journalism is the worst industry for free speech, cancel culture, and free speech on social media.

Lukianoff is the author of Unlearning Liberty: Campus Censorship and the End of American Debate, Freedom From Speech, and FIRE’s Guide to Free Speech on Campus. Most recently, he co-authored The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure with Jonathan Haidt. He’s working on his next book Cancelling of the American Mind with his co-author Rikki Schlott.

Harold Bradley, a long-time investment manager and chief investment officer, joins Julia La Roche on episode 77 to discuss why Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have distorted the role of equities markets in capital formation while posing systemic risks.

Bradley has broad and deep experience in mutual funds, foundations and endowments, exchanges, and private equity partnerships, including venture capital and hedge funds. His experience also encompasses investments in farmland, metals and mining, futures and options, and a track record of successful engagement with venture-backed technology and FinTech companies, including W.R. Hambrecht's OpenIPO, Euronet Worldwide, StarMine Corp (sold to Reuters) and Archipelago, LLC (IPO).

In 1982, Bradley introduced first of a kind cash-settled stock index futures contract in the Value Line Composite Index while at the Kansas City Board Trade before purchasing a membership and trading for five years on the floor. In 1988, he was hired at Twentieth Century, now American Century, as the first equity trader, and built a globally recognized trading operation over the next ten years. He was the lead portfolio manager of small-cap growth funds from 2003 to 2007. He was later appointed Chief Investment Officer of aggressive growth strategies before being named President of American Century Ventures in 1999, which invested $63 million in businesses likely to disrupt the mutual fund industry. From 2003 to 2007, he managed American Century Tomorrow and a team of software engineers and developers who used artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, inference engines, and pattern recognition to develop manager compliance systems and quantitative investment strategies for American Century growth mutual funds managing $10B. The American Century trading desk received global recognition as an innovator of electronic trading techniques and protocols, including the Financial Information Exchange (FIX) Protocol steering committee that created open source standards for order, trade and settlement instructions between investment firms, brokers and exchanges in global equities and foreign exchange trading.

Throughout his career, Bradley delivered Congressional testimony on stock market regulation, electronic trading, soft dollars, decimalization of stock prices, and ETFs. As Chief Investment Officer of the Kauffman Foundation from 2007 to 2012, he co-authored a vital research paper with Robert Litan highlighting risks to market stability from lax regulation of ETFs. He also co-authored widely-cited papers on subpar venture capital fund returns, with recommended best practices. He's been interviewed by CNBC, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others.

Read Harold Bradley's October 2011 testimony on ETFs here: https://www.etf.com/docs/Bradley_Testimony_10-19-11_SII.pdf

0:00 Open

1:21 Harold Bradley

2:15 Accidental investor

3:00 Agricultural commodities reporter

5:43 A major structural shift

6:45 Pace of change

7:50 Wheat pit to stocks

10:29 1987 crash

13:04 Black Monday blamed on portfolio insurance. ETFs 'a form of portfolio insurance'

13:45 20 Building trading operation

16:30 Electronic trading

21:15 Fees

22:40 Flawed system was a bug, not a feature

23:01 Soft dollars

28:59 Testified before Congress six times

30:10 Risk in ETFs

32:00 Drawback to mutual funds

35:12 Why did ETFs start

38:22 Decimalization

40:30 How D.C. works

43:00 ETFs are presented as a passive investment, but they're not

48:30 KRE

53:29 ETFs have instant liquidity, but the component securities within an ETF aren't immediately liquid

57:00 Gold/silver ETFs

1:00:45 Margin lending

1:03:18 How are ETFs distorting markets and the systemic risk they pose

1:06:00 Undermining price discovery

1:10:38 Bubbles

1:11:50 AI next ETF craze

1:13:00 Punishing good management

1:17:00 Investing today

1:20:00 Investing challenges

1:22:54 Why market won't go down?

1:27:00 Fragile markets

1:28:00 ETF risk likely won't go away

1:34:00 Markets today

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $2.7 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 20.

Josh, a frequent commentator on CNBC, is the author of three books, including Backstage Wall Street and the popular financial blog, The Reformed Broker.

In this episode, Josh shares his journey from a retail stockbroker launching a financial blog during the 2008 crisis to building and scaling an RIA. For Josh, writing changed the course of his career. Writing is what connected Josh with his firm's co-founder, and creating content through blogs and podcasts has been the sole driver of the firm’s clients.

These days, Josh has slowed the frequency of his blog posts, but when he writes it's an accumulation of ideas he's been pondering, and the latest blog he dropped on Sunday, Oct. 2, though, called “You Weren’t Supposed To See That,” went viral.

In 3,400 words, Josh examines “the greatest economic experiment” of the last three years, from the shutdowns, remote work enabled by technology, the stimulus, appreciation in stocks and housing, the emergence of digital art and SPACs, an increase in new businesses and LLCs, used car prices going up, household debt shrinking, household net worth rising, squandering of stimulus checks, and so on, all resulting in the worst inflation in 40 years.

As Josh highlights on the podcast, all of this revealed “a dark truth about the American dream.”

As Josh puts it in the blog, “Widespread prosperity, it turns out, is incompatible with the American Dream. The only way our economy works is when there are winners and losers. If everyone’s a winner, the whole thing fails. That’s what we learned at the conclusion of our experiment. You weren’t supposed to see that. Now the genie is out of the bottle. For one brief shining moment, everyone had enough money to pay their bills and the financial freedom to choose their own way of life.

“And it broke the f*****g economy in half.”

Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro

2:16 Retail stockbroker to blogger

3:59 Lessons from broker days

7:08 Blogging during the financial crisis

9:53 Writing is essential for investors

13:18 Teaming up with Barry Ritholtz

15:37 Content is the sole driver of clients

19:31 “You weren’t supposed to see that”

23:50 A dark truth about the American dream

25:11 Legal immigration is one solution

28:44 Views on the “American Dream”

32:30 Implications for younger Americans

35:42 Where does the blame lie?

37:26 Mass prosperity wasn’t the goal

38:15 Reactions to the viral blog post

40:12 This recession is necessary to prevent the next recession. - Fed policy, literally

41:35 Why @Downtown doesn’t Tweet often

48:06 Where do we go from here?

Jim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia

More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards

0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards

1:04 - Big picture

3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact

4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications

6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies

11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing

13:17 - How tariffs work in practice

15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US

16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies

27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies

30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities

31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies

33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities

35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance

38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills

39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies

42:37 - Globalization and economic policies

44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves

45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities

48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools

51:13 - Global gold demand and production

53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing

54:15 - Future prospects of gold market

55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends

58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications

59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, "Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity," joins Julia La Roche on episode 53 to provide a deep dive on what is global liquidity, why it matters, and how it drives markets. 

Michael points out that liquidity is inflecting upwards and explains what's driving that move and the implications for markets, which are sensitive to these infections. What's more, with the liquidity cycle inflecting upward, the economy will likely see a turning point in the U.S., which Michael predicts will happen around May. He believes there will be a few more months of softness, but we're near "a turning point." 

While many believe an inverted yield curve warns us that a recession is fast approaching, Michael explains why it's a flaky predictor and how term premia bias the yield curve.

Julia and Michael also explore some of the themes from the book, "Capital Wars," including that as the investment world has gotten bigger, it's become more volatile, where financial crises are more common. They also touch upon the intensifying tussle between the U.S. and China as the dominant financial economy. 

Michael founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. He developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked "Emerging Market Strategist" by institutional investors for the three years before setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics.

0:00 Intro 

0:31 Macro view

1:00 Understanding money flows 

1:30 Salomon Brothers 

3:35 What is liquidity and what is it signaling today

5:00 Financial markets suddenly kickstarted upwards 

6:00 Crypto is purely a liquidity phenomenon 

7:00 Tech bouncing significantly as liquidity has picked up 

7:15 Why is liquidity turning up? 

8:00 China 

9:30 What's happening in the big economies

11:15 Liquidity conditions from Fed have picked up 

12:50 Q.T. is dead effectively is dead in the U.S. 

13:27 Implications for markets 

15:06 Term premia for bond investors 

17:50 Why the inverted yield curve is a flaky predictor of a recession

18:08 What are fixed-income markets signaling? 

18:28 Think of the stock market as a predictor of the economy 

19:09 Close to an inflection point on the economy 

22:37 Global financial system is now collateral based 

23:00 Term premia is biasing the 10-2 yield curve 

25:34 Good reasons why the yield curve is distorted 

26:19 Evidence the Fed is in control 

26:45 Ukraine War

28:48 U.S. is the cleanest shirt in the laundry 

29:50 Ultimate job of central banks is financial stability 

31:30 Capital Wars 

35:00 As the world gets bigger it becomes more volatile 

35:19 China's ambition to unseat the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency 

38:40 Understanding equity markets 

40:17 Tech stocks 

41:30 Credit is dependent upon collateral 

44:13 Debt mountain has grown 

47:00 Financial crises will appear more regularly in the future 

47:35 Japan is the canary in the coal mine 

50:00 Threat to the financial system 

51:15 Need liquidity because of debt 

52:00 Financial markets of Victorian London 

53:17 Yield curve control is coming klTK j

Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike. 

In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move. 

He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive.

Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank.

This episode was recorded on February 19. 

Links: 

https://stenoresearch.com/

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction

00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence

02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence

04:40 Labor market and wage pressures

07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

09:00 Possibility of a rate hike

10:26 Implications for markets

14:12 Structural changes in the labor market

15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets

18:50 The European macro situation 

21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe

24:00 Watching Europe from the outside

26:00 Portfolio construction 

27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon

29:15 Parting thoughts 

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.

Links: 

The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/

Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/

0:00 Intro / Background

2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making

3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong

4:30 The role of confidence 

6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework 

10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level 

13:00 Executives discussing AI 

14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant 

15:35 The K-shaped recovery 

17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower 

18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences 

20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today 

24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election 

28:00 Gen Z’s confidence? 

31:00 Millennials’ sentiment 

33:00 Real life moves us around 

35:00 Music and the mood 

38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon 

39:30 Peak confidence? 

40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven 

41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat” 

44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme

47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood” 

50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands” 

53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession 

55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator  

Angel investor and entrepreneur Jason Calacanis, “The World’s Greatest Moderator” and co-host/Bestie of All-In Podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 125 for a wide-ranging discussion. Calacanis, affectionately known as “J-Cal,” is one of the best angel investors in the world, having turned $100,000 into $100,000,000, with early investments in Uber, Calm, Robinhood, Wealthfront, and more. He co-hosts the popular All-In Podcast alongside Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg.

The conversation covers various topics, including the despicable display on Capitol Hill, the meaning of being an American, the impact of abundance on society. They also get into the breakout success of the All-In Podcast, interviewing presidential candidates, and how the show is leaving millions on the table by not having advertising. 

In the conversation, Julia learns how Jason came to own the first Tesla Model S and 16th Roadster. They also got into some of the media scrutiny of Musk. In this conversation, Julia and Jason discuss the rise of independent creators and the shift away from traditional media networks. They explore the advantages of being an independent content creator and the potential for greater financial success. 

Elsewhere, Jason shares his journey to success, highlighting the importance of hard work, seizing opportunities, and understanding every aspect of one's field. They also discuss finding purpose and joy in life, the power of partnerships, and the future of the All-In Summit. 

Links: 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Jason

The All-In Podcast: https://www.allinpodcast.co/

This Week In Startups: https://thisweekinstartups.com/

Newsletter: https://calacanis.substack.com/

Launch: https://www.launch.co/

Angel University: https://www.angel.university/online

More links: https://linktr.ee/calacanis/

0:00 Welcome Jason Calacanis 

2:14 Antisemitism on college campuses, Harvard, MIT, and UPenn on Capitol Hill

6:20 Identity politics madness is coming to an end 

850 Why has America drifted? 

10:50 Democracy + capitalism 

13:20 Get rid of the victim mentality 

15:55 Hard work pays off, keep adding skills 

20:14 Success of the All-In Podcast 

23:00 Presidential candidates on the All-In Podcast 

26:30 All-In Summit 

28:40 All-In leaving $25 million on the table 

29:35 Elon Musk and how Jason got the first Tesla Model S

35:14 Media scrutiny of Musk

40:50 Podcasting and rise of independent creators 

43:50 Power of going the independent route 

54:40 Jason’s background and journey to success

54:00 Finding purpose and joy

56:20 Besties and the power of partnerships 

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179.

Links: 

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd  

00:46 Macro picture 

02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy

03:15 State of the real economy 

04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction

10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills

11:38 Generational opportunity 

13:30 Growing debt and deficits 

15:45  Need the austerity candidate 

16:58 A looming crisis 

18:48 UBI and a CBDC 

22:25 Gold 

24:30 Toxic brew 

27:29 Erosion of the middle class

29:00 Inflation 

30:40 Rate cut 

33:00 Policy error of the Fed

36:20 Real estate 

38:00 Immigration 

40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump

42:12 Chaos creates opportunity 

46:12 Phinance Technologies: Providing Alternative Perspectives on the Market

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@BiancoResearch), the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche again for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment.

In this episode, Bianco shares why he thinks we've seen a bottoming in inflation and that it will start to creep back up. He also explained why he doesn't see the Fed pivoting because the inflation rate is likely to be problematic. Elsewhere, Bianco explains why he's not necessarily in the recession camp.

0:00 Intro 

1:00 Macro view 

4:20 That’s not “TINA” 

6:35 Unusual market performance this year 

10:29 Thoughts on passive investing

14:00 On AI: Overhype the short-term, underestimate the long-term 

18:00 Impact of AI on finance

25:05 Might not be in the recession camp 

29:40 Did something already break? 

32:34 Sticky inflation 

36:00 Labor market is very different from what anyone thinks it is right now 

43:00 Impact on cities, commercial real estate, public transportation 

51:33 Regional bank risk 

55:15 Energy 

1:01:00 Parting thoughts 

George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.

Links:

https://x.com/bondstrategist

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves

01:17 Background and macro framework

03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"

05:35 Market complacency and valuations

07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain

09:43 Business vs. government-led growth

11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0

13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending

16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy

17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation

21:43 Credit market implications

23:26 Soft landing analysis

28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks

29:41 Deficit and debt analysis

33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis

34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025

39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil

Blythe Masters, founding partner at Motive Partners; Brett Redfearn, founder of Panorama Financial Markets Advisory; Liz Von Habsburg, managing director at Winston Art Group; and Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, join Julia La Roche on episode 38.

This episode is a recording of a panel from Art Basel hosted by Securitize called “Art & Equity: Expanding Access to High-Quality Assets from Fine Art to Private Equity.”

0:00 Intros

6:27 Defining tokenization, the blockchain

8:51 Use cases for tokenization

10:14 How blockchain, crypto has disappointed many

13:00 Looking at crypto/blockchain through First Principles

15:00 Real-world use cases

16:20 Opportunity to democratize capital markets with blockchain

19:00 Expanding access to art and PE

22:08 Thoughts on FTX fiasco

25:40 Crypto industry’s reaction

28:08 Evolution in art investing through technology

29:20 Short-term pain, long-term gain

30:15 Ownership is an ‘enormous prize’ for blockchain technology

34:00 You can’t break everything

35:28 Basic fundamental problems that could benefit from digitization

37:15 Don’t underestimate what can be done with the existing regulatory framework

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call.

Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. 

Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury.

SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research’s premium service, where you’ll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day.

Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture

0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel

2:55 State of the consumer

4:15 Fiscal stimulus

6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 

7:30 Recession call 

10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 

12:00 GDP and GDI 

14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings

15:00 Employment 

22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag

24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 

26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year

28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5%

35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond

38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates

44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war

48:27 Equity risk premium 

53:33 Bob Farrell's influence

57:44 Parting thoughts

Ric Edelman (@ricedelman), one of the most influential people in the financial planning and investment management profession, joins Julia La Roche on episode 49 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, retirement, Bitcoin, and more.

Edelman, ranked three times as the nation’s No. 1 Independent Financial Advisor by Barron’s, is also a best-selling author of a dozen books, including his newest, “The Truth About Crypto.” He’s also a top financial educator, host of The Truth About Your Future Podcast, and the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP).

0:00 Intro 

0:31 Macro view 

1:30 Stock market is a leading indicator 

2:40 Understanding the difference between the economy and the stock market 

4:28 Separate the headlines from your financial planning goals 

7:46 Technology is changing everything 

9:44 Time to rethink the financial planning process 

11:39 People are not financially prepared for retirement 

13:22 Social Security 

14:33 Rethinking retirement 

17:27 Life-long learning 18:48 Higher education paradigm is completely shifting 

21:23 Generation wealth transfer 

23:19 A formula for how much you need to retire today 

26:14 Thoughts on FIRE 

29:18 Health of the population is a problem 

31:50 No. 1 subject is crypto 

33:50 Thoughts on crypto winter 

35:40 Thoughts on SBF/FTX fiasco 

39:12 Involved in crypto since 2012 

45:03 Need for a financial advisor

 50:52 Questions to ask an advisor 

52:29 Bitcoin $150,000? 

57:03 Stock market outlook?

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42), founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, joins Julia La Roche on episode 112. 

In this episode, Darius presented his proprietary 42 Macro Weather Model to share his economic and market outlook. Growth in the real economy is expected to decelerate over the next 12 months, while inflation is reaccelerating. 

Darius’ model predicts below-normal returns for the stock and bond markets over the next three months. It also suggests above-normal returns for the U.S. dollar and below-normal returns for commodities and Bitcoin. A key takeaway is that with so many negative indicators, cash is currently the preferred asset. 

Darius also discussed the likelihood of a recession, citing that the most probable window for its onset is Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024.

Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale.

Links: 

42 Macro https://42macro.com/

Darius on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42

42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro

42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media.

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Darius Dale to the show 

1:15 Macro view using the 42 Macro Weather Model 

6:50 Recession outlook 

8:45 Indicators of a broader breakdown in the business cycle 

13:00 Inflation was going to bottom at a level inconsistent with 2% mandate

14:30 Rethinking expectations for inflation target 

20:30 Fed outlook 

26:44 Higher for longer and the duration of how long 

28:49 Why we could have a worse recession than investors are anticipating 

29:48 Fed won’t be able to do large-scale asset purchase programs that we’re used to

30:35 Fourth Turning empirical analysis 

33:55 Powell 

35:50 Where are we within The Fourth Turning? 

38:00 Parting thoughts 

With over 40 years of Wall Street experience and known for correctly predicting the 1987 market crash, Peter Grandich joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 214) to discuss America's unsustainable debt path, the BRICS nations' challenge to U.S. dominance, his concerns about a coming debt implosion, and why "less is more" should be the guiding principle for both personal and government finances, while also sharing a powerful personal story about forgiveness and mental health.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. 

Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main 

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more

Timestamps:

00:03 Introduction to Peter Grandich

01:07 Overview of America's debt problem and market outlook

03:14 Discussion of retirement and aging crisis

05:23 America's path and changing consumer habits

07:48 Warning about young financial advisors' market experience

09:42 Story behind "Wall Street Whiz Kid" title and 1987 crash

11:19 Market outlook and Trump administration impact

16:43 BRICS discussion and Wall Street's "biggest blunder"

21:11 Portfolio implications of BRICS development

24:34 Building a financial ark and investment strategy

27:36 Trump administration challenges and debt situation

30:02 Government employment and spending concerns

34:56 Retirement crisis and social security challenges

40:26 Gold outlook and critique of Bitcoin

48:15 Debt implosion as biggest risk

51:32 Personal story of forgiveness and mental health

55:21 Closing thoughts on gratitude and helping others

Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen), senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 45 to discuss macro, markets, Bitcoin, and more.

A big theme in the conversation centers around the labor market and the Fed. Franzen discusses the Federal Reserve's prioritizing of three methods for reducing demand to bring down inflation, including creating an inverse wealth effect, increasing the cost of capital, and softening the labor market. The Fed suppressed demand in two of its three approaches, but the dynamics in the labor market are keeping demand elevated and offsetting these effects. That's why the Fed focuses on the labor market softening this year. As Franzen puts it, the labor market is "the last box that they're really looking to check to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path lower."

Franzen makes the case that the Fed balancing the scales of its dual mandate — maximum employment and price stability — will be a thin line for the Fed to walk in 2023, with the labor market being historically tight (full/max employment) and inflation at historically elevated (price instability).

0:00 Macro view

1:05 Historic tightening cycle

2:04 Not a rosy picture for risk assets

3:25 Why the Fed will continue to raise after inversion

5:30 Inflation likely to moderate lower

7:16 A soft landing still on the table?

8:54 3 dynamics that stood out in the NFP data

11:18 The Fed can’t be too happy right now

12:30 Market outlook

16:25 Became macro obsessed in college

20:53 Enthusiasm capitulation then price capitulation

29:08 Bitcoin

30:00 Speculating on bitcoin is dead

36:00 Content diet

In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.

Links:

https://rosenbergresearch.com/

https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation

01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence

02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators

05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers

08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election

10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market

13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy

15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown

17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy

19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election

21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons

25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs

27:43 Lags in economic policy effects

31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues

35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth

39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations

42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation

46:40 Concerns about passive index investing

50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy

54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation

57:22 Approach to investing in bonds

01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds

01:02:27 Parting thoughts

Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, joins Julia La Roche to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics. 

Ben’s Epsilon Theory is a newsletter read by over 100,000 investors and allocators that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history and provides novel insights into market dynamics. 

In this conversation, Ben details his focus in the investment world on examining unstructured data, which includes “the words that we read and the messages that we hear.” He explains that whether it’s in investing or politics, once you start to understand underlying narratives and story arcs, you begin to see them everywhere. 

Ben also discussed how narratives are pervasive in the media and his approach to his content diet. He also outlined his “Fiat News” concept and how narratives get “weaponized.” 

Elsewhere, Ben, who has written in praise of Bitcoin, explained how Wall Street co-opted the narratives surrounding the cryptocurrency, and it’s now “just another table at the Wall Street Casino.” 

Finally, Ben discussed polarization and how American politics is approaching an “event horizon” that it might not be able to escape. 

0:00 Intro/ Ben’s background 

4:54 Unstructured data   

10:02 Why don’t we recognize narratives/stories? 

13:40 Michael Crichton’s Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect 

17:30 Ben’s content diet 

22:09 ‘Surviving’ in the environment 

24:23 ‘Fiat News’ 

30:10 Weaponized narratives 

35:21 The story of Bitcoin

40:16 Wall Street co-opted Bitcoin 

45:39 Pervasive political conflict

52:22 How to protect yourself from political crisis 

Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/frQ5SPKQMb4

Activist short-seller Dan David, the founder of Wolfpack Research and host of the “I Hung Up On Warren Buffett” podcast, joins Julia La Roche on today’s episode. Dan is best known for uncovering frauds in Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges.

In this episode, Julia and Dan discuss his journey from being a long-only investor to an activist short-seller exposing frauds. Dan delves into his process of uncovering fraudulent companies, from deploying a tea salesperson to inquire how many employees were at a plant to posting video cameras to monitor truck traffic. Dan also details the involvement of the U.S. banks and law firms in these frauds that impacted millions of everyday Americans’ retirement and investment accounts.

Dan, who has been sued for $250 million, breaks the merits of short-selling and the importance of Freedom of Speech. He also shares what he's focused on today. 

0:00 Intro/ journey into short-selling

3:55 Carson Block’s Orient Paper short report

5:22 The pervasiveness of Chinese stock frauds

7:28 How U.S. banks, law firms enabled stock fraud

9:30 Why frauds targeted U.S. investors

11:08 U.S. banks involvement

13:31 Thousands of people involved

14:20 How the fraud worked

17:16 An example of uncovering a fraud

22:19 Thoughts on “The China Hustle” film

26:00 Sino-Forest fraud

28:00 Orient Paper

30:40 Why we “won this round”

33:10 Sohn Conference in Hong Kong

35:50 U.S./China geopolitical tensions

40:30 Short-selling

46:00 Freedom of Speech 

49:22 Hanging up on Buffett

56:12 Opportunities today 

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets.

He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing. 

He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 

0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy  

2:55 Higher interest rates 

4:03 Rate outlook 

7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury 

10:18 The death of leverage 

12:00 Confidence 

16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate 

20:25 A qualitative recession 

25:15 Election year 

27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior 

32:30 Goodbye 

Macro expert Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, joins Julia La Roche on episode 37 to discuss monetary policy, the economy, gold, and more.

In this episode, Merk details the Federal Reserve's sledgehammer approach to monetary policy and why the central bank will likely push the economy into recession. He also shared his thesis on stagflation. 

Merk outlined why next year's market might be "more nuanced." He also shared his outlook on gold, the U.S. dollar, and more. 

Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Macro view

1:45 Sledgehammer approach

2:06 A more nuanced market in 2023

2:49 Central banks trying to fix their mistakes

5:14 Extremely counterproductive policies

6:18 Rates should be coming down

7:27 Fed is basically a debating club

8:11 The Fed needs a new framework

10:38 Why The Fed might pause hikes at the May meeting

13:00 Inflation outlook

16:40 Social implications of policy

19:24 Stagflation thesis

23:00 Investing in gold

25:30 3 types of gold investors

26:56 Gold is the purest indicator of monetary policy

30:24 U.S. Dollar outlook

32:48 What does a more nuanced market look like?

35:40 Merk’s framework

40:20 Why invest in gold miners

45:00 Merk’s journey in the financial markets

49:40 Building and growing a business

51:40 Pilot

53:13 Parting thoughts

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Timestamps:

# Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview

00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling

00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data

02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening

03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations

04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions

07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances

09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%)

12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science

16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook

19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields

22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities

24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook

27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications

28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues

31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status

32:36 Closing remarks and contact information

Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged. 

In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past.

Links:

IVOL: https://ivoletf.com/

Quadratic Capital: https://quadraticllc.com/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/nancy__davis

0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis

0:59 FOMC reaction 

1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off

2:30 Volatility, explained 

3:15 Fed interest rate policy 

5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in.

5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios

7:36 Opportunity in rates

10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF)

15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you

18:04 Macro picture 

19:47 Inflation protected bond market 

22:45 Inverted yield curve 

24:13 Bonds a good buy? 

25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election? 

26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation? 

29:03 Nancy's background

32:40 Parting thoughts 

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer. 

Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending. 

Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing. 

Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt.

Links: 

https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction 

01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer

04:19 Sentiment 

05:58 Housing market and homeownership

09:21 Timeline for home prices

10:38 Demographic changes and solutions

12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans

20:31 National debt and foreign buyers

22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget

23:44 Fear and impact of research calls

32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. 

*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:  

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

00:12 Welcome and introduction

01:20 Macro view and Fed policy

7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies

11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability

18:01 Bubbles and market psychology

21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook

26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis

31:53 Implications of the upcoming election

34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives

35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind

37:14 US dollar outlook

39:41 Thesis development in investing

42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook

44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses

46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 56.

In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. He outlines why he’s recently been more bullish on equities and risk assets in at least a year.

According to Burns, the economy is “not great, but it’s not as bad as expected.” He pointed out that the market had priced in much of last year's pessimism. Moreover, he’s not expecting an imminent recession like many were at the end of last year, noting that it’s, “at least being put off, if not, delayed until maybe in the next year.”

Sam has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Sam worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. We also provide customized work and special research projects for clients.

0:00 Intro

0:31 Background

2:53 Building an independent research firm

3:23 Combining top-down macro research with bottom-up analysis

5:36 Macro analysis

6:15 Distortions in the data

7:00 The economy is doing OK

7:46 Don’t think we’re heading for an imminent recession

8:45 Things aren’t going to be as bad as the bears are saying

9:49 Fed rate hikes impact on the economy

13:19 Why has the labor market held up?

17:30 Inflation

21:45 Can we get back to the 2% target?

25:50 Fiscal policy

29:44 Debt

33:09 Assessment of the markets

36:07 Opportunities

52:41 Yield curve

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and investment opportunities.  

Regarding macroeconomics, Europe is facing one of the worst winters of high power prices ever due to its overreliance on Russia and policies pushed by shareholders, NGOs, and teenagers. As a result, Bass expects Europe to see a meaningful recession. What's more, he believes the solution to the mess in the short-to-intermediate term is more hydrocarbons and embracing nuclear energy in the long term.

Elsewhere, Bass, a long-time critic of China, discusses why he thinks China will invade Taiwan. He also highlights how the Chinese economy is "circling the drain," and the banking system is hyper-levered, especially in real estate. He notes that investors should probably sell Chinese equities to limit the "risk to a genocidal regime that's likely to become militaristically belligerent."

The U.S. is still in the best position globally, according to Bass. His macro take is to expect a sharp recession, and depending on how aggressive the Federal Reserve is with its rate hikes; they could make it worse. Bass expects the U.S. to come out of that recession, and the Fed will cut rates by the end of next year or early 2024 and expand its balance sheet again. As a result, Bass is interested in hard, productive assets like rural land that can can generate superior returns that outpace inflation.

Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/p0_euL0QnnE

Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jkylebass

Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

Long-time macro investor Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, returns to the pod for episode 70 and a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, the economy, the banking crisis, problems plaguing commercial real estate, the U.S. Dollar, gold and more.

In this episode, Merk points out how the economy is a mess. He also explains that those in the “soft landing” camp are ignoring “the big elephant in the room,” which is the bank balance sheets exposed to interest rate risk and commercial real estate. He later adds that the Fed’s actions are converting an acute problem into a chronic problem, where banks with holes in their balance sheets will lend less, which is a headwind to growth. 

Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies.

0:00 Intro

1:50 Welcome Axel Merk

2:22 Background in macro

3:32 Deep dives into central banks 

4:00 The Fed is higher for longer 

4:53 Big elephant in the room are the banks 

6:02 Banking crisis is still here

8:40 Banking system limping along 

10:38 Policymakers will bend the rules 

11:29 People will invest based on next bailout as opposed to fundamentals 

13:00 Commercial real estate 

15:22 How to fix banks 

20:07 Moral hazard? 

21:30 Banking is risky 

23:22 SVB depositors

29:00 Converting acute problems into chronic problems

30:00 Inflation

34:00 Stagflation a longer more persistent issue

48:00 Dedollarization 

51:47 Risk of people moving out of the dollar is more than theoretical 

56:41 Debt ceiling fight 

1:01:01 Capitalism 

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion. 

In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.  

In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true. 

Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber.

0:00 Intro

2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show

2:50 Beginnings in investing 

3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college

4:40 Reading about traders 

5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully 

7:20 Starting own firm 

8:20 Managing money at age 22 

8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years 

9:50 Tony Robbins 

10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try 

14:00 Zook’s “why” 

16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus 

18:36 Thematic approach 

20:30 Betting against subprime housing 

25:00 Macro outlook

25:12 Meme stock bubble 

26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations 

27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet 

27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think 

28:08 A manufactured recession 

29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year

30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession 

31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market 

33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful 

33:54 Stagflation 

34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets 

38:13 Opportunities 

40:20 Themes right now 

41:09 Cord-cutting 

41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights

43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today 

45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing 

46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet 

47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed 

50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook 

53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying 

56:29 Growth of private assets 

57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes 

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, and best-selling author of multiple books, including Adrift: America In 100 Charts, joins Julia La Roche on episode 32.

In this episode, Julia and Scott delve into the “hunger games, winner takes most” economy that’s emerged, where it’s never been easier to become a billionaire in America and never been harder to become a millionaire. According to Scott, a millennial born in 1984, who’d be 37, only has a 50% chance of doing better economically than their parents. Scott highlights the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. and what it means for the country's social fabric.

Scott pointed out how broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort. He also detailed how the rise of dating apps — an ecosystem that would have greater inequality than Venezuela — has hindered relationship formation.

Elsewhere, Scott broke down how universities and colleges have become luxury brands. As Scott put it, this rejectionist luxury positioning at universities is the “most un-American thing.” He argued that we could easily expand freshman seats.

Scott also shared his thoughts on Twitter and its new owner Elon Musk, which he describes as a “train wreck you can’t look away from.” He also shared his take on TikTok and his issue with its ownership.

0:00 Intro

0:43 Never been easier to be a billionaire in America

1:48 More business school students will be dependent on their parents

2:40 Millennials have it worse off than their parents

4:50 Consequences of an eroding middle class

6:30 Age inequality

8:30 What Social Security should look like now

11:00 The greediest generation in the world

12:10 Creating anger and volatility among younger people

15:00 Broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort

17:30 Need a leveling up for young males

20:45 Solution is viable young men

22:08 Need to double number of freshman seats at universities

24:00 Leveling up young men is not zero-sum or misogynistic

27:23 How dating apps make it difficult to find a partner

30:00 Dating app economy would have greater inequality than Venezuela

32:28 Need to invest in third spaces

34:13 Universities have become luxury brands

38:22 Rejectionist luxury universities are un-American

40:18 Student debt forgiveness was terrible

46:02 UNC is a gift, literally like a pharmaceutical

48:39 Thoughts on Twitter/ Elon Musk

54:30 Thoughts on the power of TikTok

Legendary investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and author of multiple bestselling books including "Street Smarts" and "Investment Biker," returns to the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 215) with a stark warning about America's debt crisis and market euphoria. Speaking from Singapore, Rogers shares why he's recently cut back his positions "enormously," explains his continued investments in China and Uzbekistan, and offers a sobering perspective on America's $200+ trillion in total obligations (this includes off-balance sheet debt). While not yet shorting markets, Rogers cautions that current market complacency reminds him of previous peaks, and explains why he's holding U.S. dollars despite long-term concerns about America's financial future.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨

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Timestamps:

00:03 Introduction and welcome Jim Rogers

00:56 Big picture view on markets and economy

02:31 Discussion of market bubble conditions

03:22 Recent portfolio reductions

04:27 China and Uzbekistan investments

07:36 China market outlook

09:24 Signs of market hysteria to watch for

11:37 Reaction to election and market complacency

14:04 U.S. debt situation ($200T+ including off-balance sheet)

17:11 U.S. dollar outlook and safe havens

19:03 Views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

20:50 Gold vs. silver investment thesis

22:29 Bond market outlook and inflation

24:27 Federal Reserve rate cuts discussion

26:36 Long-term investment trends

29:26 Discussion of new tariff proposals

31:06 Department of Government Efficiency outlook

33:29 Final thoughts and personal debt warning

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109. In this episode, DiMartino Booth argues that the U.S. economy would already be in recession if it weren't for the government's spending.

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. 
Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Timestamps: 

00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show 

1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions

3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending 

6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime

9:20 An about-face for equity investors  

11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs

15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt

17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble? 

18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy

22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel

24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences

26:30 - Conclusion