美轮美换 The American Roulette ( Baihua Media )

从好莱坞到锈带，从演员到蓝领汽车工人，罢工潮席卷全美各地。 【聊了什么】 2023年见证了美国劳工运动的一次新高潮。从好莱坞的编剧和演员工会，到三大汽车厂的蓝领工人，全美各地的工人们联合起来，通过罢工争取到了一系列创纪录的合同。在通胀导致生活成本飙升的背景下，这些努力为工人阶级带来了更高的薪酬，从资方手中争取到了更多的利润分享。随着几场重要的罢工运动接近尾声，我们邀请到了一位亲身参与工人运动的嘉宾，深入探讨这场罢工潮的前因后果及其深远影响。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:46 美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）组成的多样化 04:47 汽车工人罢工发起的流程和工人的诉求 10:16 UAW的新领导层和改革运动 16:36 UAWD带来的新气象 23:58 拜登和特朗普和工会的关系 30:54 资方如何打压工会和劳工运动 34:18 律师和工会的关系 43:50 “精英”行业为什么没有工会 46:43 就业法和劳工法之间的张力 51:15 Janus案判决对工会的影响 57:10 工会对工人意味着什么 1:00:59 什么样的工人需要工会 1:05:45 作为“精英”的藤校学生为什么要向蓝领工人学习 1:12:29 为什么工人需要工会 1:18:55 工会领导人和基层之间的关系和工会组成的多元化 1:22:16 工会和移民以及国际学生的关系 1:28:05 美国工会的未来会更好吗？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 张跃然：社会学博士在读，UAW工会成员 本期节目由talich和小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是小华。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 In 2023, the American labor movement reached a new peak. From the writers and actors in Hollywood to the blue-collar workers of the Big Three automakers, workers across the U.S. united, securing a series of unparalleled contracts through strikes. These efforts led to increased wages for the working class and workers gaining a greater share of profits from employers amid rising living costs driven by high inflation. As several significant strikes draw to a close, we invited a guest who is actively involved in the labor movement to explore with us the origins, outcomes, and enduring effects of these strikes. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:46 - Evolution of the United Auto Workers (UAW) 04:47 - Behind the scenes: auto workers' strikes and their demands 10:16 - Leadership and reform in the UAW 16:36 - UAWD's new perspectives 23:58 - Biden and Trump's interactions with the unions 30:54 - Employers' tactics against unions and labor movements 34:18 - Examining the union-lawyer relationship 43:50 - Absence of unions in 'elite' industries (blue collar vs. white collar) 46:43 - Dynamics between employment and labor laws 51:15 - Impact of the Janus case decision on unions 57:10 - What unions mean to workers 1:00:59 - Types of workers who need unions 1:05:45 - Why Ivy League students should learn from blue-collar workers 1:12:29 - Importance of unions for workers 1:18:55 - Dynamics between union leaders and members, and the diversification of union membership 1:22:16 - Unions, immigrants, and international students 1:28:05 - Future of America's labor movement 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer Yueran Zhang: Ph.D. candidate in Sociology, member of the UAW This episode is produced by Talich and Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 美国汽车工人大罢工的胜利：困境中的工会，如何取得历史性的成功？ 《十三月评论》频道 vol.44 | 我在美国组织罢工——看见集体行动的力量与困境 - 打工谈 How the Yale Unions Took Over New Haven | The New Yorker

【聊了什么】 在总统大选中，特朗普预计将获得312张选举人票，战胜了获得226张选举人票的哈里斯，将成为第47任美国总统。同时，共和党获得了参议院的控制权，大概率也会赢下众议院。 我们和看理想在选举日第二天的早上进行了一场直播，对结果进行了简单的初步分析。这期播客是这场直播的剪辑版。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:58 本次大选结果有猜到吗？依据的是什么？ 06:20 身处美国当地，哪个时间点预示特朗普胜选？有这个节点吗？ 09:34 民主党的"崩盘"，是性别因素/阶层因素吗？ 16:00 本次大选，在美普通民众的情绪如何？气氛怎样？ 21:21 特朗普主义和特朗普是如何一步步走到今天的？特朗普与共和党，谁更有主导性？ 27:01 马斯克对特朗普竞选真有帮助吗？ 33:56 大选结果已出，那未来会如何：赴美更难？移民？战争走向？ 38:39 若"三权皆红"，未来四年的局势会风起云涌吗? 43:44 "历史的上升，是螺旋性的；历史的前进像钟摆，偶尔往左也偶尔往右" 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 In the presidential election, Trump is projected to win 312 electoral votes, defeating Harris who received 226 electoral votes, and will become the 47th President of the United States. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has gained control of the Senate and is likely to win the House of Representatives as well. We did a livestream with Vistopia the morning after Election Day, providing an initial analysis of the results. This podcast is an edited version of that livestream. This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:58 Did you anticipate this election outcome? What was your reasoning? 06:20 From your perspective in the US, was there a defining moment that signaled Trump's victory? 09:34 Is the Democratic Party's collapse attributed to gender or class factors? 16:00 What's the current mood and atmosphere among average Americans following this election? 21:21 How did Trump and Trumpism evolve to where they are today? Who holds more influence - Trump or the Republican Party? 27:01 Has Musk's support made a real impact on Trump's campaign? 33:56 With the results now in, what lies ahead: Changes in US policies? Immigration? Global conflicts? 38:39 With potential Republican control of all three branches, how turbulent will the next four years be? 43:44 "History moves in spirals; like a pendulum, swinging sometimes left, sometimes right" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2020-election-trump-win-analysis/

【聊了什么】 如果你刚刚开始关注大选，你的精神健康应该比美轮美换的几位主播要好一些。在大选前夕，我们帮你梳理了这场大选的关键时间点和重要议题：从拜登的意外退选到哈里斯的临危受命，从经济表现的党派差异到移民政策的困境，每个议题都折射出美国社会的深层分裂。 在摇摆州选情胶着、社会撕裂加剧的背景下，这场选举是否会重新定义美国政治？经济数据与民众感受之间的巨大鸿沟该如何弥合？移民政策的两难困境能否找到平衡点？当两党政治生态日益分化，社会撕裂愈发明显，美国的民主制度将面临怎样的挑战？ 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:12 考前突击：为什么我们需要关注这场选举 00:09:07 特朗普封口费案的来龙去脉 00:29:30 特朗普遭遇暗杀未遂事件的影响 00:34:12 拜登退选与民主党的权力交接 00:48:20 副总统候选人万斯和沃尔兹的选择 00:52:50 经济议题：通胀、就业与选民感受的复杂性 01:01:25 移民议题与社会分化 01:12:39 堕胎权之争：从罗伊诉韦德案到现在 01:19:16 这次大选对美国民主制度的影响 01:26:33 七大摇摆州的选情分析：从蓝墙到阳光带 01:37:40 计票规则解读：为何结果可能需要等待数天 01:40:05 国会选举展望：参众两院的微妙平衡 01:44:16 问答 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 For those who are just tuning into the 2024 election discourse, your mental health is probably much better than our hosts – who have been breathlessly tracking every development for the past year. As the election day approaches, we have distilled all of the pivotal moments and critical issues that have defined this madhouse of a cycle - from Biden’s unexpected withdrawal to Kamala’s ascension, from partisan narratives on the state of the economy and immigration. Each flashpoint illuminates the deepening chasm of American society. As the battleground state odds remain locked in a coin toss, we try to ponder the fundamental questions: will this election yet again reshape American politics? How to bridge the chasm between the escalating social divisions? Why do the economic indicators tell different stories to the two parties? And as the two-party ecosystem grows increasingly polarized and social fabric continues to fray, what trials await America's democratic institutions? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:12 Last-minute primer: why this election demands our attention 00:09:07 Trump hush money case: untangling the complex web 00:29:30 Implications of the attempted assassination on Trump 00:34:12 Biden's withdrawal and the democratic power transition 00:48:20 VP picks: a closer look at Vance and Walz 00:52:50 The economy: navigating inflation, employment, and voter sentiment 01:01:25 Immigration and social fractures: America's deepening divide 01:12:39 The abortion battle: from Roe v. Wade to present day 01:19:16 Impact on American democracy: examining institutional resilience 01:26:33 Battleground analysis: from the blue wall to the sun belt 01:37:40 Vote counting explained: why results may take a week 01:40:05 Congressional outlook: the delicate balance in both chambers 01:44:16 Q & A 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选刚刚落幕。四年一次的大选不再仅仅是公共政治实践的战场，也愈加变成个人心理的大型试炼场。在2016年开始的每次大选期间，约有60%到70%的美国人报告说他们的焦虑明显上升，有更多的恐惧感，更容易发怒和失眠。有超过四分之一的美国公民声称他们有了更多的压力应激行为，比如抽烟喝酒和情绪性暴食。 大选引发的精神压力也渗入了最私密的心理咨询室的空间——在美国大选期间，很多人进入到心理咨询室讨论大选对他们生活的影响。作为保持中立的咨询师和被政治影响的普通人，这样的双重身份也给心理咨询师带来了许多挑战。 本期小华和《北冥有鱼》播客的主播朝朝和卡其一起，一起畅聊当大选政治渗入私密的情感空间，我们该如何理解与应对。 【注：本集播客录制于大选前两天】 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:45 如何应对这一届选举的未知感 10:47 周围人对于选举的情绪反应 15:55 对美国政治的“后知后觉”： 政治与作为外国人的生活也息息相关 22:42 随着两极分化的逐渐严重，如何和与我们政治观点完全不同的人相处？ 37:40 对于基本事实的共识可以撑起我们与不同观念的人对话的空间吗？ 43:05 如何理解对于有移民创伤却依然支持反移民政策的人的立场 49:45 心理咨询的空间是一个可以让我们反思对于政治的情绪反应更深层的来源 54:15 来自同温层朋友的支持是应对选举焦虑和政治性抑郁的有力方法吗？ 57:46 咨询师如何在咨询中和来访讨论政治议题和看见来访情绪背后的压抑和脆弱 1:05:45 我们该如何应对选举焦虑和政治抑郁？ 1:14:05 面对选举结果可能会有的“信仰崩塌”，应该如何调整心态？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 北冥有鱼是一档心理学播客，主播是两个在美国的临床心理学家，每期从心理学的视角探索内心世界和不同领域观点的碰撞。

【聊了什么】 本期播客的主题是，如何像一个竞选专家一样看大选出票。 美国大选将在周二举行，周二晚上就开始出票。这期节目，我们来聊聊的唱票和出票过程，为什么有的州出票快，有的州出票慢，有的州先出支持民主党的票，有的州先出支持共和党的票，有的州会半夜扔出天量选票，有的州出票会像挤牙膏一样。外行看热闹，内行看门道，如何从出票的过程中早早就看出今年大选的走势，把握本次大选的动向。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:42 周六 Ann Selzer 的艾奥瓦民调的指导意义 00:21:39 如何看大选投票 00:25:47 佛罗里达 00:42:17 佐治亚 00:46:57 北卡 00:51:37 宾夕法尼亚 00:56:49 密歇根 01:01:14 威斯康星 01:05:59 新罕布什尔和弗吉尼亚 01:07:59 亚利桑那 01:15:22 内华达 01:27:15 在哪里看大选的实时播报 01:30:37 结语 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 America heads to the polls this Tuesday. When the votes start rolling in, can you read the returns like a campaign pro, war room style? In this episode, we’ll talk about the vote-counting process: why do some states report results faster than others? What explains the “blue mirages” and “red mirages” in different jurisdictions? Why do certain states suddenly release a large number of votes in the middle of the night, and why others release results in a slow, steady trickle? For those who know what to look for, the vote-counting process reveals key insights into the election’s direction. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:42 How to understand Ann Selzer’s IA poll last Saturday 00:21:39 What to watch for on election night 00:25:47 Florida 00:42:17 Georgia 00:46:57 North Carolina 00:51:37 Pennsylvania 00:56:49 Michgan 01:01:14 Wisconsin 01:05:59 New Hampshire and Virginia 01:07:59 Arizona 01:15:22 Nevada 01:27:15 Where to watch latest update on election 01:30:37 Relax, it’s just another election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2024-us-election-swing-states-overview/ https://theamericanroulette.com/ann-selzer-iowa-final-poll-harris-lead/ 王浩岚的微信公众号《岚目》https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9ZrOClRrgjj0nn1DX2FTg 端传媒实时更新 https://theinitium.com/article/2024-us-election-live-blog https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html

【聊了什么】 81岁的拜登已成为美国历史上年龄最大的在任总统。倘若他成功连任并完成第二任期，届时他将高龄86岁。而对手特朗普，同样已年届77。无论选举结果如何，都将是美国总统年龄的一个新纪录。近期，拜登的年龄问题再次成为公众舆论的热点。本期节目中，我们试图慎入探讨拜登的年龄议题：“年龄门”是否会是拜登在2024年大选中败北的决定性因素？当公众讨论拜登的年龄时，他们究竟在谈论什么？ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:52 特别检察官Robert Hur提交的报告让拜登的年龄问题再次成为焦点 11:17 拜登的国情咨文演讲反响 14:12 拜登年龄问题为何比其他同龄政界人士引发更多争议 23:48 2020年拜登自称为“过渡期总统候选人”，他变卦了吗？ 29:00 换马是否能为民主党带来更大胜算？ 37:55 美国“老人政治”的问题 48:33 民调还靠谱吗？ 1:01:11 为什么拜登如此不受欢迎 1:08:20 拜登的竞选战略 1:14:15 如果大选前如果拜登出现意外，可能引发的连锁反应 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 At 81, Joe Biden is the oldest serving U.S. president. Ever. His potential second term would end with him at 86 years old, should he secure re-election and fulfill a second term. Looking across the aisle, his opponent Donald Trump is not much younger at the age of 77. No matter how the election unfolds, it will set a new precedent for the age of a U.S. president. Recently, Biden's age resurfaced to the forefront of public discourse. In this episode, we delve into the complexities surrounding the discussions of Biden's age: Could the issue become the pivotal factor that determines Biden's fate in the 2024 elections? When the public discusses Biden's age, what exactly are they talking about? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 2:52 The report by Special Counsel Robert Hur once again highlights concerns about Biden's age 11:17 Reactions to Biden's State of the Union Address 14:12 Why does Biden's age provoke more debate than other similarly-aged politicians? 23:48 Biden described himself as a "bridge candidate“ in 2020 – has he changed his position? 29:00 Would the Democratic Party have a better chance of winning by changing their candidate? 37:55 The issue of gerontocracy in U.S. politics 48:33 Can opinion polls still be trusted? 1:01:11 The reasons behind Biden's unpopularity 1:08:20 Biden's 2024 campaign strategy 1:14:15 The potential repercussions of an unforeseen event involving Biden before the election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Fine, Call It a Comeback Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden Recorded Interview: Robert Hur, President Biden Transcript Puck

【聊了什么】 本期节目是《端传媒》的播客节目《端闻》中的一期，小华在节目中讨论了近期美国总统拜登政府与《纽约时报》之间的矛盾冲突。 《纽约时报》在政治立场上一向被视为倾向民主党和自由派，但拜登团队最近却对《纽约时报》相当不满。Politico最近的一篇报道将这一矛盾摆到了公众面前。在节目中，我们深入分析了事件的来龙去脉。 播客录制完成后，双方的矛盾非但没有平息，反而因《纽约时报》执行总编周看的一次专访再度引发热议。我们在《美轮美换》会员通讯中对事件的最新进展进行了讨论，欢迎通过注册电子邮箱，免费阅读这期会员通讯的内容。 【支持端传媒】 欢迎你成为端传媒的订阅会员，支持华文世界不可或缺的深度报道和多元声音：https://bit.ly/3QDXSy3 【使用此链接可「尊享八折」，一次解锁端传媒、华尔街日报、当今大马会籍】 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 【 What We Talked About】 This episode of Initium Reports podcast by Initium Media, featuring Xiaohua as a guest. In this episode, we discuss the recent conflict between the Biden administration and The New York Times. The New York Times has long been viewed as leaning towards the Democratic Party and liberal ideologies. However, the Biden team has recently expressed strong dissatisfaction with the paper. A recent Politico report brought this discord into the public eye. In this episode, we delve into the origins and development of this saga. After the recording of the podcast, the conflict between the two parties did not subside. Instead, it reignited due to an interview given by the Joe Kahn, the Executive Editor of The New York Times. In the latest edition of The American Roulette’s newsletter, I discuss the latest developments in saga. You can register with your email address to read this subscriber-only newsletter for free. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

【聊了什么】 四年一度大选年，美国边境的移民危机毫不意外再次成为舆论和公众关注的焦点。更不意外的是，两党在解决边境危机的问题上无法达成妥协，最新移民法案刚推出就宣告死亡。为何移民问题在美国成为了无解的难题，这一问题又会如何左右2024年大选的走势？ 【参与调研】 斯坦福商学院的研究者在进行一项关于美国H1B工作签证中国申请人的问卷调查。如果您今年计划参与H1B工作签证抽签，我们诚挚邀请您参与我们的研究。请访问 goto.stanford.edu/h1b 参与我们的调查。 本调查一共有两次问卷，共计约20分钟。完成两次调查将获得10美元的Amazon礼品卡，虽然是杯水车薪，但您的想法将为我们研究者理解来美华人移民提供重要贡献。如果您认识亲朋好友参与今年的H1B工作签证抽签，也欢迎您将这一信息转发给他们，或在您的公司群组中扩散。非常感谢！ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:25 边境危机的背景 03:57 红州往蓝州运送移民是怎么回事 07:53 非法入境美国的移民面临的处境 14:41 为什么处理无证移民和难民问题如此棘手 16:48 拜登政府面临的移民危机和之前有什么不同 28:08 “非法移民” vs. “无证移民” 30:10 两党和选民对移民的不同态度 32:03 最新移民法案的前因后果 40:45 移民问题在政治中扮演的角色 01:01:51 进步派在反对法案通过的时候都在反对什么 01:04:30 移民问题会如何左右2024年大选的走势 01:06:55 如何才能增加美国人对移民的支持 01:22:09 共和党到底要什么 01:29:42 拜登如何“关闭边境” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者 本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是小然。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客，更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。 【 What We Talked About】 Every election cycle, the immigration crisis at the U.S. border inevitably emerges as a major point of focus of public attention and discourse. Equally unsurprising is the inability of the two parties to reach a consensus on addressing the issue, with the latest immigration bill effectively dismissed shortly after its introduction. The persistent deadlock raises the question that we hope to tackle in this episode: why has immigration become an intractable issue in the US? How will this shape the course of the 2024 election? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:25 Background of the border crisis 03:57 Red states transporting immigrants to blue states 07:53 The situation for immigrants experience after entering the U.S. illegally 14:41 The complexity of dealing with undocumented immigrants and refugees 16:48 Differences in the immigration crisis under the Biden administration compared to previous administrations 28:08 "Illegal immigrants" vs. "undocumented immigrants" 30:10 Varied attitudes towards immigration from different political parties and voters 32:03 Background and implications of recent immigration laws 40:45 Immigration issue's role in politics 01:01:51 Progressive opposition to the immigration bill 01:04:30 The impact of immigration issues on the 2024 election outlook 01:06:55 Strategies to enhance American support for immigration 01:22:09 GOP's objectives on immigration issue 01:29:42 How could Biden "shut down border" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Xiaoran. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

【聊了什么】 在美国大选最后冲刺阶段，地面动员正在上演着一场场关键战役。在摇摆州的街区中，无数拜票团队正在进行着最基层的选民动员——他们挨家挨户地敲门，努力说服更多支持者能够走出家门投票，或及时寄出自己的选票。 两位来自纽约的华人青年，选择走进关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚，亲身参与这场草根民主的实践。这种面对面敲门拜访的动员方式，不仅是选举工作中的重要一环，更成为了解当代美国社会分裂现状、倾听不同群体声音的独特窗口。 在挨家挨户的拜票过程中，他们遇见了形形色色的美国选民：有态度坚定的特朗普支持者，也有思虑再三的中间派；有对政治充满热情的活跃分子，也有对选举冷眼旁观的工薪阶层…… 在本期播客中，这两位华人青年将分享他们在宾州大选一线的亲身经历，带我们走进一个真实的美国政治图景。 嘉宾提到的拜票组织： UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:10 两位年轻的海外华人志愿者分享参与拜票的初衷 00:16:48 拜票组织的运作机制与培训流程 00:28:34 费城市区vs郊区：不同社区的政治氛围 00:33:22 一位黑人单亲妈妈的投票抉择 00:52:08 如何与不同立场的选民进行有效对话 01:08:34 家庭内部的政治分歧 01:37:27 如何加入拜票行动：主要组织与平台介绍 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 可达鸭：海外青年社群组织者、行动者 蕨菜：女权行动者 【 What We Talked About】 As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, ground mobilization has emerged as a critical battleground. Across swing state neighborhoods, canvassing teams are executing grassroots voter outreach—knocking on doors, urging supporters to head to the polls, and ensuring mail-in ballots are submitted on time. Two young Chinese activists from New York ventured into the key battleground state of Pennsylvania to immerse themselves in this exercise of grassroots democracy. Their door-to-door canvassing experience offers more than just insights into campaign operations—it provides a unique window into America's social divisions and amplifies voices from across the political spectrum. Throughout their canvassing journey, they encountered the full spectrum of American voters: unwavering Trump supporters, thoughtful moderates weighing their options, passionate political activists, and working-class citizens disconnected from the political process. In this episode, these two young activists share their frontline experiences from Pennsylvania, offering a glimpse into the American political landscape. UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:10 Two young overseas Chinese volunteers share their motivations for canvassing 00:16:48 How canvassing organizations operate and their training processes 00:28:34 Philadelphia urban vs suburban areas: Political atmosphere in different communities 00:33:22 A Black single mother's voting decision 00:52:08 How to have effective dialogues with voters of different political stances 01:08:34 Political differences within families 01:37:27 How to join canvassing efforts: Introduction to major organizations and platforms 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Psyduck: Community organizer and activist for overseas youth groups Bracken: Feminist activist

【聊了什么】 英国导演Alex Garland的新作《美国内战》(Civil War)以一场虚构的美国内战为背景，引发了广泛关注和争议。作为A24迄今为止最大制作，电影集全明星阵容和炫目视效于一身，更因触及当下美国社会分裂、政治极化的议题而备受瞩目。然而，电影却避开了最敏感的政治问题，转而以四名战地记者为主角展开叙事，聚焦新闻伦理和人性挣扎，也因此被批评为避重就轻。 在本期节目中，疲惫娇娃的两个女的与美轮美换的主播Lokin和小华一起，探讨以下问题：在战争中，镜头背后是新闻理想主义的湮灭，还是人性的回归？在信息过载的时代，我们是否还有余力正视战争和苦难的真相？摄影和报道究竟能否改变世界，抑或终将被时代洪流所淹没？影片刻意模糊了内战的起因和立场，这是否在鼓吹一种危险的相对主义，还是向观众传达了更有价值的提醒？ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 The When】 【时间轴】 00:02:54 讨论电影《美国内战》Civil War的情节和导演Alex Garland的作品。 00:15:13 Alex Garland导演对战地记者职业的矛盾心理刻画 00:40:06 电影对种族主义暴力的直白展现 00:48:06 导演在政治立场上的模糊态度引发争议 00:55:22 战争带来的不确定感和混乱感 01:01:09 摄影记者的自我矛盾：记录还是介入? 01:08:24 社交媒体时代，记者的责任与观众的责任 01:15:08 前辈记者对后辈的无奈：这一行太苦，但拦不住你 01:17:03 尽管科技发达，战争的荒谬感依旧没变 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期节目的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 小杨和花酱：《疲惫娇娃》主播 【 What We Talked About】 Alex Garland's latest film, "Civil War," was set against a fictional war between two different factions within the United States. The film has sparked considerable controversy. It explores America’s political reality through the lenses (zing!) of four war correspondents, centering on journalistic ethics and the struggles of the human condition, but somehow sidestepping all of the more contentious, real political issues currently dividing America. We were not sure if we liked this artistic choice, so we recorded an episode with our friends from 美轮美换 The American Roulette to process it. Do we like Alex Garland’s decision to obscure the causes of the war? Why do we need photojournalism? Do we still have the capacity to process the harsh realities of conflict and suffering, and hold complexities in this age of social media? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: theamericanroulette.com Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:54 Discussion of the plot of "Civil War" and the works of director Alex Garland 00:15:13 Alex Garland's portrayal of the conflicting psychology of war correspondents 00:40:06 Blunt portrayal of racist violence 00:48:06 Alex Garland did not take a stand but do we need him to? 00:55:22 The uncertainty and chaos of war 01:01:09 The self-contradiction of photojournalists: to document or to intervene? 01:08:24 In the age of social media, the responsibility of journalists and the responsibility of the audience 01:15:08 Senior journalists' helplessness towards their juniors: This profession causes inevitable moral or physical injuries, but they can't stop people from joining 01:17:03 Despite advances in technology, the absurdity of war remains unchanged 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Hosts and Guests of This Episode: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 小杨 & 花酱：Hosts of CyberPink

【聊了什么】 从斯坦佛到哈佛，美国精英大学的校长们先后历劫。2023年10月7日以色列哈马斯冲突升级之后，中东问题在美国精英高校成为争议焦点，各大校长们也被卷入风波。为什么有的校长因此下台，还有一些校长却得以“幸存”？ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:01 共和党初选的最新进展和分析 05:30 利益冲突声明 07:03 斯坦福大学前校长Marc Tessier-Lavigne(MTL)的学术造假问题及其辞职 14:18 学生记者的胜利？ 16:43 巴以冲突在美国精英大学成为争议焦点 21:15 听证会上的“明星”议员Elise Stefanik 24:56 国会听证会为何变成了马戏团表演 28:15 听证会上发生了什么？为什么校长们给出如此糟糕的回答 40:03 大学校长是都应该在争议政治话题上站队 45:30 为什么美国右翼对美国精英高校充满敌意 59:10 听证会后第一个下台的宾大校长Liz Magill 1:02:30 哈佛校长的“抄袭”风波 1:17:25 “幸存”的MIT校长和文理科在巴以冲突上的分歧 1:24:36 金融大佬Bill Ackman的闹剧 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者 本期节目的制作人是小华和Lokin，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 From Stanford to Harvard, leaders of America's elite universities have faced a multitude of challenges in 2023. Following the Israel-Hamas conflict that intensified on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has emerged as a contentious issue within these top institutions, propelling their presidents into the heart of the storm. Amidst the controversy, why have some presidents resigned while others have seemingly managed to "survive"? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:01 Latest updates and analysis on the Republican primaries 05:30 Conflict of interest statement 07:03 Academic misconduct and resignation of Marc Tessier-Lavigne, ex-president of Stanford 14:18 A win for student journalists? 16:43 The Israeli-Hamas war: a contentious issue in US elite universities 21:15 Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in the spotlight at the hearing 24:56 Why congressional hearings have turned into a spectacle 28:15 What went wrong at the hearing? Poor responses from university presidents 40:03 Should university leaders take a stand on controversial political topics? 45:30 Why the American right is hostile towards elite universities 59:10 The first resignation post-hearing: Liz Magill, former president of Penn 1:02:30 Plagiarism scandal involving the former president of Harvard 1:17:25 The "surviving" MIT president 1:24:36 - The saga of financial mogul Bill Ackman 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher This episode is produced by Xiaohua and Lokin, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Why Some Academics Are Reluctant to Call Claudine Gay a Plagiarist The Invention of Elise Stefanik Theo Baker Meet the student who helped boot the president of Stanford Is Claudine Gay a Plagiarist? 'This is Definitely Plagiarism': Harvard University President Claudine Gay Copied Entire Paragraphs From Others’ Academic Work and Claimed Them as Her Own How We Squeezed Harvard to Push Claudine Gay Out Bill Ackman's celebrity academic wife Neri Oxman's dissertation is marred by plagiarism

【聊了什么】 民主党全国代表大会在8月19日到22日于芝加哥联合中心“胜利召开”。在本期播客中，我们和嘉宾向杨讨论了党代会的整体氛围，对整个大会进行了回顾，并和上个月共和党的大会做对比。我们也分析了哈里斯在演讲和竞选中的策略选择，并展望了未来两个月选举中可能出现的变数。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 04:01 党代会气氛如何？民主党对危机管理格外重视？ 08:48 巴以问题在党代会中被淡化 17:11 美国党代会逐渐远离“开放”，靠近模范化？ 23:04 围绕特朗普展开的共和党党代会，前领导人都未出席 31:24 共和党邀请众多工人代表、劳工领袖参会 36:38 演讲顺序，有按照“黄金时间”规划吗？ 43:13 党代会对两党支持率有什么影响 48:24 部分民调预测哈里斯领先于特朗普，该如何看待？ 0:59:10 党代会上，哈里斯更多喊口号少提具体政策，是一种策略吗？ 1:18:00 接下来，决定大选走向的最大变数是什么？特朗普犯错还是哈里斯犯错？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 向杨：芝加哥大学社会学博士候选人，b站up“向杨Alan君” 【 What We Talked About】 The Democratic National Convention was held at the United Center in Chicago from August 19 to 22. In this episode, we sit down with our guest, Xiang Yang, to unpack the convention's vibe, key moments, and how it stacked up against the RNC last month. We also analyze Harris's strategic choices in her acceptance speech and her campaign, and forecast the potential game-changers in the final stretch to Election Day. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 04:01 What's the vibe at the convention? Is the Democratic Party paying extra attention to crisis management? 08:48 The Israel-Palestine issue downplayed at the convention 17:11 Are U.S. party conventions moving away from "openness" and towards normalization? 23:04 RNC centered around Trump, with former leaders absent 31:24 RNC invited worker representatives and labor leaders to the convention 36:38 Is there a "prime time" strategy for the speech order? 43:13 How do the conventions impact the approval ratings of both parties? 48:24 Some polls show Harris leading Trump - how should we interpret this? 59:10 Harris focuses more on slogans and less on specific policies - is this a strategy? 1:18:00 What's the biggest wildcard - a Trump misstep or a Harris blunder? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 向杨：PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Chicago, Bilibili creator “向杨Alan君” 【拓展链接】 向杨Alan君 https://space.bilibili.com/495979610/

【聊了什么】 虚假信息和阴谋论是每个选举周期都绕不开的话题。在2024年大选期间，从特朗普在总统辩论中传播的“海地移民吃猫吃狗”谣言，到各类社交平台上层出不穷的不实信息，虚假信息的传播似乎达到了新的高度。 在这期节目中，我们邀请到专门从事中文事实核查工作的朋友，探讨在中文信息环境中如何应对选举虚假信息的挑战。我们将分析主要社交平台上的虚假信息传播现象，探究为什么第一代移民群体更容易成为目标受众，并提供了一些信息甄别建议。 《阴谋论、谎言与人工智能 右翼虚假信息如何反映2024年大选中的仇恨政治》报告链接：https://www.piyaoba.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E5%81%87%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:24 事实核查工作的背景、日常流程和优先级判断 00:05:50 中文虚假信息传播渠道的变迁 00:12:53 2024大选中文假新闻的主要叙事方向 00:18:07 AI技术如何改变虚假信息传播方式 00:37:13 制造和传播虚假信息的不同动机 00:40:17 事实核查的意义是什么 00:50:02 如何识别虚假信息：一些建议 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 Jinxia：美国中文事实核查机构“辟谣吧”负责人 【 What We Talked About】 Misinformation and disinformation remain an unavoidable topic in every election cycle. During the 2024 election season, the spread of false information appears to have reached unprecedented levels — from Trump promoting the "eating dogs and cats" conspiracy during the presidential debate to the flood of misinformation across social media platforms. In this episode, we talk with a fact-checker specializing in Chinese-language content to explore how to tackle election misinformation in Chinese media spaces. We'll examine the spread of false information across major social platforms, investigate why first-generation immigrants are particularly susceptible to becoming targeted audiences, and share tips for distinguishing fact from fiction. Report: CONSPIRACY THEORIES, LIES, & A.I.: How right-wing disinformation in the Chinese American community reflect the politics of hate in the 2024 election https://caasf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/CAA-Report-Conspiracy-Theories-Lies-and-AI-1.pdf 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:24 Understanding fact-checking: background, process, and priorities 00:05:50 Shifts in Chinese-language misinformation channels 00:12:53 Key narratives of Chinese misinformation in the 2024 election 00:18:07 AI's impact on misinformation dissemination 00:37:13 Understanding motivations behind misinformation 00:40:17 Why fact-checking matters 00:50:02 Spotting misinformation: a practical guide 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Jinxia: Program Manager of Digital Engagement at Chinese for Affirmative Action

【聊了什么】 Lokin做客友台《不合时宜》，聊了本次大选中性别议题扮演的角色。 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢《美轮美换》并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 不合时宜原文案 【主播的话】 11月5日，美国即将迎来四年一度的大选投票，民主党候选人哈里斯对阵共和党候选人特朗普。如若哈里斯当选，她将成为美国历史上第一位女性总统。 美国大选向来都有很多解读视角：种族的，阶级的，经济的，地缘的，等等。在今年的选战中，我们注意到，性别视角尤为受到关注。在当今主要西方国家的大选中，似乎很少看到其他例子，像美国这样，性别议题占据如此重要甚至是中心的位置。哈里斯作为一名女性+少数族裔的候选人，性别身份是她尤其重要的身份，为女性权益呼吁是她的旗舰政策之一，特别是捍卫美国女性的自主堕胎权。与之相对的特朗普+万斯搭档，在性别议题上劣迹斑斑，前者身陷多起性犯罪，后者则在诸多场合发表厌女言论。今年进入竞选的节奏以来，已经出现很多与性别有关的热点事件。从特朗普身陷"封口费"官司，到Taylor Swift关于"Childless Cat Lady"的署名。性别分野会是决定美国大选走向的关键因素吗？如何从性别的视角理解今年的美国大选？ 【本期主播】 王磬：微博@王磬 若含：微博@_R若含 【本期嘉宾】 Lokin: 《美轮美换》主播，美国法律从业者 *感谢蓝书屋对本集节目的特别支持 【本期剧透】 2:33 为什么要从性别视角探讨美国大选 11:57 为什么当今美国年轻男性更倾向共和党 18:22 性别成为大选中的突出议题：新现象还是历史的延续？ 24:45 泰勒·斯威夫特的表态及其对单身女性投票的影响 30:49 比较经济与性别因素在本次大选中的影响 35:33 美国历史上反女权的女性政治家 45:59 当今美国的社会制度与文化是否有利于哈里斯 52:25 哈里斯在社交媒体中的性别策略 56:46 从性别到种族因素，哈里斯能否打破双重壁垒？ 【"不合时宜全球成长计划"会员听众提问】 01:05:14 为什么堕胎权在美国格外重要？与其它地区对此话题的关注有什么差异？ 01:09:34 女性议题在本次大选中占了多大的权重 【相关阅读】 播客中提到的相关研究： Why Young Men and Women are Drifting Apart www.economist.com 【本期音乐】 片头：Kevin MacLeod - Sad Drunken Party 片尾：Kevin MacLeod - Study and Relax 【Logo设计】刘刘（ins: imjanuary) 【文字】含之 【后期制作】方改则 【互动方式】 小红书@不合时宜 微博@不合时宜TheWeirdo 商务合作可发邮件至hibuheshiyi@126.com或微博私信 会员计划咨询可添加微信：hibuheshiyi2或发送邮件至hibuhehsiyi@gmail.com

美国政府关门危机暂时缓解，议长麦卡锡却成了美国史上第一位被赶下台的议长。 【聊了什么】 在短短几天时间内，美国政坛最大的危机从政府长期关门转变为议长凯文·麦卡锡被罢免。这两场危机折射出美国政治生态怎样的变化？陷入停摆的众议院将何去何从？ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:58 国会拨款程序如何让美国政府频频陷入关门危机 06:19 今年拨款案的核心矛盾 09:43 关门危机如何从两党矛盾演变成共和党内斗 23:47 “委员会中心主义” 25:37 两党的不对称极化和政府关门对民意的影响 39:35 麦卡锡的命运从2022中期选举就注定了 49:55 麦卡锡和极右翼议员的恩恩怨怨 54:43 麦卡锡去意已决？ 01:11:43 未来议长选举的分析和预测 01:24:17 弱势议长的未来 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 寄馀生：比较政治爱好者 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是小华。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Within just a few days, the biggest crisis in U.S. politics shifted from a potential prolonged government shutdown to the ousting of Speaker Kevin McCarthy. What do these two crises reveal about the changes in the American political landscape? And what lies ahead for the gridlocked House of Representatives? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:58 How the congressional appropriation process leads to the frequent shutdown crisis of the U.S. Government 06:19 The focus of this year's appropriation bills 09:43 How the shutdown crisis evolved from a conflict between the two parties to infighting within the Republican Party 23:47 “Committee autonomy” 25:37 Asymmetric polarization and how public opinion reacts to government shutdowns 39:35 Speaker McCarthy's fate was sealed in the 2022 midterm elections 49:55 The love-hate affair between McCarthy and far-right Republicans 54:43 Had McCarthy already made up his mind to leave? 01:11:43 Analysis and predictions for the incoming speaker elections 01:24:17 The future of a weak speakership 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 从政府关门危机到议长被罢免：美国国会陷入了怎样的失灵状况？｜端传媒 Inside McCarthy’s Shutdown Turnabout That Left His Speakership at Risk - The New York Times

【聊了什么】 2024年7月21日美国东部时间下午1:46，美国总统拜登在社交媒体上发表声明，宣布退出2024年美国总统竞选。这一事件不仅彻底改变了整个大选的局势，更有可能深远影响美国的命运。 我们紧急录制了新一期播客，讨论了拜登退选的原因及其影响，分析了潜在接班人哈里斯的优势和劣势以及她可能的竞选策略，并展望了并不怎么光明的未来。 本期播客录制于美国东部时间7月21日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:41 民主党高层如何通过压力让拜登退选 00:05:57 民主党新候选人产生的流程 00:11:52 各州选票截止日期和民主党大会召开时间带来的挑战 00:15:10 换人后如何从流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候选人）的合法性 00:19:34 民主党对哈里斯支持的不同态度 00:24:08 民主党换人是一种自我实现的预言 00:25:50 哈里斯的优势和劣势 00:27:27 拜登退选本人和民主党精英的都有责任 00:31:35 民主党国会成员要求拜登退选的考量 00:34:37 拜登为何无法扭转竞选危机 00:40:13 哈里斯给选举带来的变数 00:44:00 哈里斯需要尽快定义自己的形象 00:49:29 哈里斯的潜在副总统人选 01:02:30 哈里斯的动员和选举策略 01:09:45 极化环境下总统选举对参议院和众议院选情的影响 01:14:25 特朗普获胜、共和党控制两院的后果 01:17:04 民主党对特朗普获胜的恐惧 01:19:56 拜登接下来还能做什么？ 01:25:35 拜登退选打开的潘多拉魔盒 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 寄馀生：比较政治爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States. We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw 00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee 00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention 00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes 00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris 00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch 00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses 00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal 00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down 00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis 00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election 00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image 00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris 01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies 01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election 01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers 01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win 01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward 01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/

【聊了什么】 这个大选周期的第二场总统辩论、哈里斯与特朗普的首场正面交锋，于美国东部时间9月10日晚9点在费城的国家宪法中心举行。这场辩论，拉开了2024年大选最后的冲刺阶段。我们在辩论当晚在线上直播录制了本期节目，对双方的表现进行了点评。 因为技术原因，录音质量不够理想，烦请见谅。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:57 辩论总体印象：主播认为谁赢了？辩论输赢会如何影响选情？ 11:52 堕胎问题：对民主党有利的议题 19:17 辩论主持人的事实核查 21:44 特朗普对哈里斯的人身攻击 22:37 经济问题：双方都有经济学教授背书？ 27:34 移民问题上双方的攻防 33:44 特朗普回避1月6号国会山暴乱问题 40:55 为何特朗普称呼塔利班头子稍显“亲密”？ 48:06 泰勒·斯威夫特公开支持哈里斯，会有什么影响吗？ 50:02 特朗普VS哈里斯 与 2016年特朗普VS希拉里，有何可比性？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 【 What We Talked About】 The second presidential debate of this election cycle, and the first face off between Harris and Trump, took place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10th. This debate marks the beginning of the final sprint for the 2024 election. We recorded this episode live online on the night of the debate, providing commentary on both candidates' performances. Due to technical issues, the audio quality is not ideal. We apologize for any inconvenience. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:57 Overall debate impression: Who won? How will the debate outcome affect the race? 11:52 Abortion: A favorable topic for Kamala Harris 19:17 Fact-checking by the debate moderators 21:44 Trump's personal attacks on Harris 22:37 Economic issues: Both sides backed by economics professors? 27:34 The exchange on immigration issues 33:44 Trump's avoidance of the January 6th Capitol riot question 40:55 Why did Trump address the Taliban leader in a seemingly "intimate" manner? 48:06 Taylor Swift's public endorsement of Harris: What impact might it have? 50:02 Trump vs. Harris compared to Trump vs. Hillary in 2016: What are the parallels? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选周期在冰冷的艾奥瓦州冷清开场，特朗普以压倒性优势轻松获胜。共和党初选距离变成垃圾时间可能仅剩一步之遥？ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:47 艾奥瓦党团会议结果回顾 05:11 艾奥瓦州初选的历史和特殊性 12:00 特朗普、德桑蒂斯、黑莉和拉瓦斯瓦米在艾奥瓦的策略 23:55 展望新罕布什尔州初选 34:50 特朗普对共和党的绝对控制力 45:35 艾奥瓦州初选的赢家除了特朗普还有民调 更正： 39:05 Bob Dole在艾奥瓦大胜时间应该为1988年 42:00 出口民调中认为和自己“share the same value”最重要的选民中特朗普赢了40% 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 本期节目的制作人是小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客，更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。 【 What We Talked About】 The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election cycle kicks off in the frosty backdrop of Iowa. Donald Trump secures the victory effortlessly with a significant margin. Is the Republican primary on the brink of becoming a mere formality? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:47 Review of the Iowa caucus results 05:11 Why is Iowa so unique? Why is it first? 12:00 Strategies of Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy in Iowa 23:55 Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary 34:50 Trump's absolute control over the Republican Party 45:35 Winners of the Iowa Primaries: Trump and the polls 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Iowa Poll: Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads big (desmoinesregister.com)

【聊了什么】 拜登退选并宣布支持哈里斯之后的最初几周，哈里斯打出了梦幻开局。8月6日，哈里斯选择明尼苏达州的州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）为自己的竞选搭档。我们会在本期节目中盘点哈里斯的开场，副手的选择，以及特朗普的反应。 本期播客录制与美国东部时间8月6日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:15 过去一个月的感受 00:03:00 哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人后的党内团结和士气高涨 00:15:32 哈里斯的好感度上升及其原因 00:18:00 万斯好感度和特朗普的绑定 00:23:06 拜登/哈里斯的竞选团队 00:25:58 民主党选民政治联盟可能的变化和挑战 00:28:20 哈里斯竞选策略和政策立场的转变 00:32:32 哈里斯选择蒂姆·沃尔兹作为副总统候选人以及没有选别人的原因 00:35:38 北卡州长库珀主动高风亮节 00:39:21 宾州州长夏普罗最终出局 00:45:30 沃尔兹如何成为左派的最爱 01:03:25 沃尔兹的竞选能力怎样 01:07:45 民主党给共和党贴上怪异（Weird）标签的策略能否奏效 01:10:13 特朗普对哈里斯的种族主义攻击 01:17:23 特朗普竞选策略的变化 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 Following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement, Harris launched her campaign with remarkable momentum. On August 6th, she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. In this episode, we'll analyze Harris's campaign kickoff, the veepstakes, and Trump's response. This podcast was recorded on August 6th at 8 PM Eastern. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:15 Reflecting on the past month 00:03:00 Democratic Party unity and surge in morale post-Harris nomination 00:15:32 Understanding Harris's rising favorability ratings 00:18:00 Vance's approval tied to Trump's fortunes 00:23:06 Breakdown of the Biden/Harris campaign team 00:25:58 Shifts and challenges in the Democratic voter coalition 00:28:20 Evolution of Harris's campaign strategy and policy stances 00:32:32 Unpacking Harris's VP pick: Why Walz, why not others 00:35:38 Governor Cooper's (NC) strategic withdrawal 00:39:21 Governor Shapiro's (PA) exit from VP contention 00:45:30 Walz's ascent as a progressive favorite 01:03:25 Assessing Walz's campaign chops 01:07:45 Viability of the Dems' "weird" strategy 01:10:13 Examining Trump's racist attacks on Harris 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 定义卡玛拉·哈里斯 https://theamericanroulette.com/defining-kamala-harris/ 两集新播客和三个梗🥥🌴 https://theamericanroulette.com/meme-saves-america-kamala-harris-brat/

【聊了什么】 虽然总统拜登的支持率低迷，民主党却在刚刚结束的迷你中期选举中取得了比民调药好得多的结果。堕胎权作为焦点议题起到了怎样的作用，又对明年大选会有什么样的影响？我们来讨论一下! 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:40 什么是迷你中期选举？ 01:20 2023 年迷你中期选举的主要结果 04:04 为什么会有迷你中期选举？ 08:24 俄亥俄堕胎权入宪法公投 12:30 堕胎权之争的前景 25:30 支持大麻合法化的人和支持堕胎权的人并不很重合 26:11 肯塔基州州长连任，堕胎权之争的作用 29:21 堕胎权之争共和党为什么陷入被动？ 31:54 弗吉尼亚州议会选举和文化战争 38:11 选民结构的变化对竞选的影响 44:15 拜登的民调表现为什么这么差? 49:33 拜登的年龄问题被夸大了，还是特朗普的年龄问题被低估了？ 52:43 通涨/经济现状对选举的影响 56:15 今年迷你中期选举和明年大选的关系 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 本期节目由Talich制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Talich。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Yes. 2023 is also an election year. Though Biden is not doing so well in the latest polls, Democrats have exceeded expectations in the past off-year elections. We discuss results of some of the high-profile races. How did abortion rights play into the results? How will the issue affect the general elections next year? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:40 What is a mini-midterm election? 01:20 Main outcome of 2023 mini-midterm election 4:04 Why did some states adopt mini-midterm elections? 8:24 Ohio’s initiative on abortion rights 12:30 The future of political fights on abortion rights 25:30 Pro-marijuana legalization and pro-abortion rights voters don’t exactly overlap 26:11 Kentucky governor's successful re-election and abortion rights in the state 29:21 Why is the Republican party playing defense when it comes to abortion rights 31:54 Virginia state legislature elections and the culture wars 38:11 How voter demographic changes affect elections 44:15 Why is Biden doing so badly in the polls? 49:33 Has Biden's age issue been exaggerated, or has Trump's age issue been underestimated? 52:43 The impact of inflation/economic situations on elections 56:15 What does the mini-midterm say about next year’s general election? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media.

【聊了什么】 灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？ 在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。 本期播客录制于6月29日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划 众筹平台链接： Patreon 爱发电 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾 00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点 00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响 00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误 00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民 00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误 00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应 00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登 00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊 00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性 00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登 00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？ 00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？ 01:01:10 不负责任的预测 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice? In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down. This episode was recorded on June 29th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances 00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate 00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape 00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team 00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters 00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy 00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate 00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden 00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate 00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate 00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down? 00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden? 00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden? 01:01:10 Update on our predictions 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应 012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

【聊了什么】 从“大放异彩”的少数族裔候选人Vivek Ramaswamy，到肯尼迪家族的“局外人” RFK Jr.，再到更早的杨安泽，特朗普时代后，没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”已经成为了两党初选中不可小觑的一股势力，他们为何能吸引到选民的支持，他们走多远？ The post-Trump era political arena has seen no shortage of unconventional candidates: from rising superstar Vivek Ramaswamy, to the “outsider” of the famed Kennedy family — RFK Jr., to the UBI candidate Andrew Yang from the last election cycle. In this episode, we dive into their political journey — how did they rise to become formidable foes without ever having held public office? What makes them appealing to their supporters and how far can they go? Follow along as we watch their career with great interest. 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:33 首场共和党初选辩论回顾 04:44 “大放异彩”的Ramaswamy在辩论中遭受围攻，网络粉丝能帮他走多远 19:09 Ramaswamy的少数族裔身份和移民故事 26:13 肯尼迪家族的“局外人”RFK Jr.的崛起之路 29:35 从环保律师到阴谋论者，RFK Jr.的“反转”其实并不意外 35:18 从杨安泽到RFK Jr.，没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”的初选天花板 46:37 特朗普如何打破初选天花板 51:51 两党选民的反建制情绪和战后社会文化思潮变化 58:21 “非主流候选人”退选后如何变现，他们都要去做播客了？ 01:33 A look back at the first Republican primary debate in August 2023 04:44 Ramaswamy faced a barrage of attacks at the debate; how far can his online fan base take him? 19:09 Ramaswamy's background as a minority and an immigrant 26:13 The rise of Kennedy family's "outsider” — RFK Jr. 29:35 From environmental lawyer to conspiracy theorist, RFK Jr.'s pivot is not all that surprising 35:18 The primary ceiling for candidates who have never held public office 46:37 How Trump broke the so called “primary ceiling” 51:51 The anti-establishment sentiment among voters in both parties and the post-war shift of socio-cultural attitudes 58:21 How "non-mainstream candidates" cash in after bowing out of the race — are they all pivoting to podcasting? 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 The American Roulette is produced by Baihua Media. It is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Xavier。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xavier. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接】 A Chaotic Display of Conservatism at the First Republican Debate | The New Yorker 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【聊了什么 What We Talked About】 美国大选年又来了，我们又憋不住想聊美国政治了。四年一度的大选，如同一场轮盘赌，赌的是美国乃至全世界的命运。共和党初选在即，司法麻烦不断的特朗普依然在民调中遥遥领先，却选择跳过初选辩论；建制派精英和金主们试图带共和党走出特朗普的阴影，无奈选民并不买账；毫无政治经验的“网红”Ramaswamy异军突起，上升势头猛烈。2024年的大选，是不是最终又会是4年前特朗普vs.拜登的重演？ With another U.S. election year just around the corner, we can’t help but take a deep dive into American politics once more. Every four years, it feels like we’re playing a game of roulette, betting on the fate of the United States and even the entire world. In this episode, we survey the current landscape ahead of the Republican primaries: Donald Trump — plagued by legal troubles — continues to lead in the polls. He chose to skip the very first primary debate. On the other hand, the GOP establishment elites and their donors are trying to lead the Republican Party out of Trump's shadow, but voters are not convinced. The politically inexperienced "internet celebrity" Vivek Ramaswamy has risen in popularity unexpectedly and gained a strong momentum. Will the 2024 election ultimately be a replay of four years ago, ending with Trump vs. Biden? Let’s find out. 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 Timeline】 3:43 2024年共和党初选的时间线和关键节点 11:13 共和党主要候选人盘点 14:38 力争上游的建制派精英—Ron DeSantis、Mike Pence、Tim Scott和Nikki Haley 37:55 异军突起的局外人—Vivek Ramaswamy 41:59 被起诉4次的特朗普民调不降反升，共和党选民为何对他不离不弃 50:44 跳过辩论的特朗普打的是什么算盘，其他候选人还有机会通过初选辩论翻盘吗？ 1:01:46 民主党一边拜登可以高枕无忧了吗？RFK Jr.的崛起和小儿子的司法危机会对拜登造成威胁吗？ 1:07:39 我们不负责任地预测了一下共和党初选以及2024年大选的最终结果 3:43 The 2024 Republican primary timeline and key milestones 11:13 Overview of the major Republican candidates 14:38 Establishment elites aiming high: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley 37:55 Outsider rising unexpectedly — Vivek Ramaswamy 41:59 Trump is facing four lawsuits, yet his poll numbers continue to rise. Why do Republican voters remain loyal to him? 50:44 Why can Trump afford to skip the primary debates? Can other candidates get ahead through these debates? 1:01:46 On the Democrats’ side, can Joe Biden afford to sit back and relax? Will the rise of RFK Jr. and his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles pose a threat to Biden? 1:07:39 We made some (irresponsible) predictions about the Republican primaries and the final outcome of the 2024 election 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者。 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Qitong Cao): PhD in American political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Media professional, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 黑马闪耀，群雄相争第二的诡异局面——简评共和党第一次初选辩论 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【聊了什么】 2022年6月，美国最高法院推翻了维持了半个世纪的联邦宪法保障女性堕胎权的里程碑式判决——罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）。取而代之的是道布斯案（Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization），声称将堕胎权问题归还各州处理。这一决定引发了全国范围内的激烈争议，持续至今。 在本期播客中，我们将深入分析过去两年各州议会在堕胎权立法和司法审查上的激烈博弈，探讨堕胎权在全国范围内的可及性危机，回顾联邦法院在堕胎权相关议题上作出的若干重要判决，并展望堕胎权在即将到来的2024年大选中可能发挥的作用。 本期播客最初录制于5月19日，并在7月3日根据最高法院最新判决进行了补充录制。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:45 堕胎问题的“州权”和“反扑” 00:04:09 各州的堕胎相关新立法 00:06:39 德州极端堕胎法造成医疗危机后民主党擦屁股 00:09:41 为何各州反堕胎立法漏洞频出 00:14:51 州最高法院引人瞩目的堕胎判决和后果 00:18:37 亚利桑那州高院反堕胎判决是如何起到反效果的 00:22:46 堕胎权公投和选举：“仁义不施而攻守之势异” 00:29:26 堕胎权在全国的可及性危机 00:35:38 联邦最高法院持续介入堕胎权问题 00:36:18 米非司酮案：保守派法官削弱行政部门 00:49:43 紧急堕胎医疗与“医生的良心” 00:56:33 古老的Comstock法案与今天的堕胎权 01:05:04 堕胎权被推翻会引发其他“隐私权”重审吗 01:14:06 美国和其他国家的堕胎权发展史大相径庭 01:21:39 特朗普摇摆不定的堕胎权立场 01:27:16 全国堕胎权禁令和堕胎权与大选的未来 01:36:16 高院在米非司酮案中支持FDA的前因后果 01:39:56 推翻“雪佛龙尊重”和堕胎权行政诉讼 01:47:56 高院未表态紧急堕胎医疗案中的实质问题 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士 【 What We Talked About】 In June of 2022, the United States Supreme Court overturned the milestone opinion that ensured women’s right to abortion in the federal Constitution for half a century – Roe v. Wade. Instead, the Dobbs opinion proclaimed to return the issue of abortion to the states. For the past two years, controversies surrounding abortion rights have only grown louder nationwide. This episode of the podcast analyzes the interplay between state legislative enactments and judicial review on the issue of abortion rights over the past two years, the national accessibility crisis of abortion rights, several decisions produced by federal courts on abortion-related issues, and the potential role of abortion rights in the upcoming 2024 elections. This episode was initially recorded on May 19th and supplemented on July 3rd following the latest Supreme Court decisions. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:45 “State rights” and “backlash” of the abortion question 00:04:09 New state legislations on abortion 00:06:39 Extreme abortion laws in Texas cause a medical crisis while Democrats try to save the day 00:09:41 Why are anti-abortion state laws full of loopholes 00:14:51 Eye-catching state supreme court abortion decisions and consequences 00:18:37 How the Arizona Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decision backfired 00:22:46 Abortion right on the ballot and in the elections: “When benevolence and righteousness are not practiced, the balance of attack and defense shall alter.” 00:29:26 National accessibility crisis of abortion rights 00:35:38 Federal Supreme Court continues to weigh in on abortion rights 00:36:18 Mifepristone case: conservative justices weaken the administrative state 00:49:43 EMTALA, emergency abortion care, and “a doctor’s conscience” 00:56:33 Ancient Comstock Act and today’s abortion rights 01:05:04 Will overturning abortion rights lead to a retrial of other “privacy rights”? 01:16:06 American abortion rights as an international anti-trend 01:21:39 Swinging abortion position of Trump 01:27:16 National abortion ban, and the future of abortion rights and the elections 01:36:16 How the Supreme Court supported the FDA in the mifepristone case 01:39:56 Overturning “Chevron deference” and administrative litigation of abortion rights 01:47:56 Supreme Court failed to substantively rule on the EMTALA abortion case 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin：American law student, New York litigator soon-to-be 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate 【拓展链接】 嘉宾推荐的论文： Roe Rage: Democratic Constitutionalism and Backlash https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/Faculty/Siegel_RoeRageDemocraticConstitutionalismAndBacklash.pdf 推翻雪佛龙尊重的高院重磅判决： Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/loper-bright-enterprises-v-raimondo/ 一氧化二氮（笑气）与氮氧化物（大气污染物）： This is why the Supreme Court shouldn’t try to do the EPA’s job https://newrepublic.com/article/183285/supreme-court-chevron-gorsuch-nitrous-oxide 保护堕胎权能帮到拜登么？ Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections. Can it help Biden win too? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/minimidterm

【聊了什么】 默多克的退休，成为了电视媒体时代落幕的又一个注脚。我们从默多克聊起，聊到了不同时代、不同派别的美国媒体在政治和选举中扮演的角色。2024年和未来，美国政客们又会如何利用TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台？ 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:23 退而不休的默多克和家族的“继承之战” 10:20 福克斯新闻意识形态和美国电视新闻节目形态的演化 22:06 政治脱口秀的崛起 29:25 CNN的崛起和变化 42:29 MSNBC的崛起和变化 54:26 媒体和技术变革对美国政治和传播的影响 1:05:05 总统的诞生不仅要靠个人努力，也要看历史进程 1:19:24 TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台会如何影响2024年大选 1:28:19 “网红”当上总统还要多久？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 杨一：旅英媒体人 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Xavier。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Rupert Murdoch's retirement is just the latest footnote to the end of the television era. We started this episode talking about Murdoch’s outsized influence on American politics, and how mass media have shaped politics and elections in different generations and political factions. How will politicians use TikTok and other emerging media platforms in 2024 and in the future? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 2:23 Murdoch may be retired, but he’s not resting. What comes next in this real-life “Succession” show? 10:20 Fox News’s ideology and how American TV news programming evolved over the years 22:06 A uniquely American cultural product: late night political comedy 29:25 CNN’s meteoric rise and how it changed in recent years 42:29 MSNBC’s rise and its role in American politics 54:26 How technological developments in mass media affect American politics 1:05:05 How mass media made various previous presidents — timing matters 1:19:24 How will TikTok and other new social media platforms affect the upcoming 2024 election 1:28:19 How far are we from getting the first “influencer” president? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Yang Yi: Journalist based in London 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 杨一的明信片 | Yang Yi | Substack 杨一的小红书 - 个人页 (xiaohongshu.com) 92岁默多克退休：传媒大亨与两个大国的纠葛｜新闻实验室 001 | 「继承之战」 ：无法背叛的父亲，和无法拯救的帝国 The War of "Succession" - 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink Inside Rupert Murdoch’s Succession Drama | Vanity Fair 最响亮的声音 (豆瓣) Inside the Meltdown at CNN - The Atlantic Crush On Obama - YouTube

【聊了什么】 近年来，硅谷这个传统的民主党堡垒正悄然发生变化。科技界的“右转”现象，以及马斯克和Marc Andreessen等大佬对特朗普的公开支持，似乎预示着一场政治地震。这是否反映了科技界对主流社会长期“敌意”的反弹？ 在这期节目里，我们探讨了硅谷在即将到来的大选中的政治取向，AI革命下科技界政治光谱的变迁，以及源自科技圈的新兴政治话语及其在网络上的传播。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:25 AI的浪潮引发政治语言的变革 08:17 回顾这几个月最近硅谷发生的“大佬右转，支持川普”的情况 13:27 Marc Andreessen和a16z对特朗普的公开支持，以及他的《科技乐观主义宣言》背后说了什么 21:00 华盛顿和硅谷之间撕裂从2016年开始不断加大 31:49 e/acc (有效加速主义）是什么？以及有哪些硅谷“cults”出现了？ 40:40 什么是Marc Andreessen和Ben Horowitz的“The Little tech agenda (小型科技议程)”？他们如何看待AI 监管？ 58:10 简析Peter Thiel对于特朗普的支持，以及他和JD Vance之间的历史 01:04:10 简析马斯克对于特朗普的公开支持 01:13:50 扎克伯格最近的态度：没有表态但是... 01:28:00 科技届的在公众面前的形象如何在2016年之后逐渐“崩坏”？ 01:33:10 哈里斯和加州湾区的关系，以及科技圈对哈里斯的支持网“VC for Kamala” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 Afra: 在湾区生活工作的科技从业者 一闻：商业记者，曾驻旧金山报道科技行业 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In recent years, Silicon Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has been undergoing subtle changes. The tech industry's "right turn" and public support for Trump from prominent figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen seem to herald a political earthquake. Does this reflect a backlash from the tech world against long-standing "hostility" from mainstream society? In this episode, we explore Silicon Valley's political leanings in the upcoming election, the shifts in the tech industry's political spectrum amidst the AI revolution, and the emergence and spread of new political language originating from the tech sphere. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:25 How AI is transforming political language 08:17 Recent "rightward shift" of Silicon Valley leaders supporting Trump 13:27 Marc Andreessen and a16z's public support for Trump, and what his "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" reveals 21:00 The widening rift between Washington and Silicon Valley since 2016 31:49 What is e/acc (effective accelerationism)? And what Silicon Valley "cults" have emerged? 40:40 What is Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's "Little Tech Agenda"? Their views on AI regulation 58:10 Brief analysis of Peter Thiel's support for Trump and his historical connection with J.D. Vance 01:04:10 Brief analysis of Elon Musk's public endorsement of Trump 01:13:50 Mark Zuckerberg's recent attitude: No statement, but... 01:28:00 How has the tech industry's public image gradually "collapsed" after 2016? 01:33:10 Kamala Harris's relationship with the Bay Area, and the tech circle's support network "VC for Kamala" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Afra: Tech professional living and working in the Bay Area 一闻（Yiwen）：Business reporter, with previous experience covering the tech sector while based in San Francisco The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election, https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/key-issues-2024-united-states-presidential-election The Little Tech Agenda, https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ VCs for Kamala, https://www.vcsforkamala.org/

【聊了什么】 共和党选出了新议长：迈克・约翰逊。迈克・约翰逊是谁？他为什么能当上议长？他当议长面临什么样的挑战？他会怎样面对？这期播客我们从选议长一路讨论到了怎么当议长。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:05 回顾第一轮推选议长的过程（兼对上上次播客里的预测的回顾） 03:08 乔丹是怎么输的 08:26 第二轮选举，约翰逊怎么赢的 11:11 约翰逊的资历和他胜选和关系 18:11 约翰逊曾担任主席的学习委员会是怎么回事 23:22 当议长需要什么技能和人脉 28:23 临时拨款协议对约翰逊的挑战 30:49 约翰逊如何解决党内关于堕胎的矛盾 40:43 约翰逊会如何解决两党关于军援/边境安全的拨款问题 44:58 麦康奈尔、拜登、和共和党保守派在外交问题上的矛盾 49:00 议长最重要的权力：议程设置 50:54 约翰逊的蜜月期会有多长 52:18 约翰逊的个人形像对共和党的选情有多重要 55:50 特朗普为什么可以频频踩福音派的红线还不受惩罚 01:00:34 接下来两周的看点 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 寄馀生：比较政治爱好者 本期节目由Talich制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Talich。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 If the ascension of Mike Johnson to the office of speaker of the House proves one thing, it’s that “keeping a low profile and biding your time” actually works. So who is Mike Johnson? What challenges does he face as the new speaker? How would he go about it? In this episode, we talk about the ins and outs of what it takes to become speaker of the House. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:05 Overview of what happened in the previous rounds of selection (and to see how right or wrong our predictions in the previous episode turned out to be) 03:08 How Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan lost 08:26 How did Johnson win the second round of the election? 11:11 Johnson’s credentials, his electoral success and connections 18:11 What happened to the Republican Study Committee Johnson once chaired? 23:22 What skills and connections are needed to be the speaker? 28:23 One of Johnson’s first tests as speaker: Continuing Resolution(CR) 30:49 How will Johnson resolve the conflict within the Republican party over abortion policy? 40:43 How would Johnson resolve the bipartisan funding issue for military aid/border security? 44:58 Conflicts between McConnell, Biden, and Republican conservatives on foreign affairs issues 49:00 The speaker’s most important power: agenda setting 50:54 How long will Johnson’s “honeymoon phase” be? 52:18 How important is Johnson’s personal branding to GOP’s upcoming elections? 55:50 Why Trump can repeatedly cross Evangelical’s red lines with impunity 01:00:34 What to watch for in the next two weeks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media.

【聊了什么】 我们和《这集我看过》的主播徐天聊了马丁·斯科塞斯1976年的电影《出租汽车司机》如何反映和预示了美国社会与政治的多层次变迁。从西部片的传统概念到70年代城市衰败的背景下的男女关系描绘，我们揭开电影中隐藏的社会文化纹理。通过主角Travis的故事，我们探索了片中角色的道德虚无、孤独感以及与Incel群体的联系，以及它们如何呼应与当代的极右派政治。 本期节目由《美轮美换》和《这集我看过》联合制作播出。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:54 从西部片里的西部谈起 03:08 70 年前后城市西部片的设定 05:45 西部片里经典男女关系 12:30 《出租汽车司机》剧情简介 13:44 Travis 的道德虚无 14:41 Incel 群体和 Travis 17:55 Travis 的孤独感 19:30 Travis 形象后面是编剧 Schrader 的个人经历 23:45 Variety Photo Player Theater 和 LGBTQ 亚文化群 26:15 时代广场与城市衰败 29:58 1975 年的纽约城市财政危机 31:01 美国最大的贫民窟 The Bronx 32:52 90 年代的时代广场改造工程 35:38 Palantine 和两党解决城市犯罪的方法 43:52 便利店抢劫案和创作中的刻板印像 49:55 皮条客角色设定的问题和作为特例的电影 54:31 射杀黑人劫匪和政治正确 56:43 持枪许可 58:43 为什么要买枪 59:40 Travis 买的枪 01:00:25 枪支文化的消费特点 01:02:25 影片中的男女关系 01:07:57 影片中的暴力 01:08:49 行走的矛盾：Travis 和枪 01:11:15 行走的矛盾：出租汽车司机看 LGBT 01:13:08 电影结尾处理：导演和编剧对于 Travis 角色的两种看法 01:17:04 Travis 和特朗普时代的极右派有什么可比性 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 徐天：历史研究者、影迷 本期节目的制作人是小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 American Roulette, together with Xu Tian, host of 这集我看过, discuss Martin Scorsese's 1976 film "Taxi Driver." In this episode, we unpack the movie’s reflection on and foresight into the multifaceted changes within American society and politics. We start from the traditional motifs of Western films and further dive into the depiction of male-female dynamics amidst the 70’s urban decay, dissecting how the film handles the nuanced socio-cultural layers of that time. We examine protagonist Travis and his journey, his moral nihilism, pervasive sense of isolation, and its affiliations with the Incel movement – and of course, how all these elements still echo within contemporary far-right political discourse. This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and 这集我看过. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:54 The ‘West’ in the Western genre 03:08 The depiction of the “Urban West” in 70s cinema 05:45 Gender roles in Westerns 12:30 Overview of "Taxi Driver" plot 13:44 Travis Bickle's moral nihilism 14:41 The Incel community and Travis 17:55 Exploring themes of loneliness 19:30 Insight into screenwriter Paul Schrader's personal experiences influencing the film 23:45 The Variety Photo Player Theater and its role in LGBTQ subcultures 26:15 Times Square as a symbol of urban decline 29:58 The 1975 financial crisis in New York City 31:01 The Bronx: Depiction of America's largest slum 32:52 The Times Square redevelopment effort in the 90s 35:38 Palantine's approach to urban crime 43:52 Stereotypes and creativity: the convenience store robbery scene 49:55 Portrayal of the pimp’s character and the film's unique stance 54:31 Addressing racial tensions: the shooting of the black robber 56:43 Gun permits 58:43 Why buy a gun 59:40 The gun Travis bought 01:00:25 Consumer aspects of gun culture 01:02:25 Revisiting male-female relationships within the film 01:07:57 Violence in the film 01:08:49 Travis Bickle: The embodiment of contradictions with his gun 01:11:15 "Taxi Driver" and its nuanced view on LGBT issues 01:13:08 Film ending: Diverging perspectives of the director and screenwriter on Travis's character 01:17:04 Drawing parallels between Travis Bickle and far-right ideologies in contemporary context 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Xu Tian: historian and movie fan This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

【聊了什么】 美国国会两院已经先后通过了一揽子对外援助法案，其中包含了强制字节跳动剥离TikTok条款。美国总统拜登于4月24日迅速签署令其生效。TikTok在美国再次面临存亡危机。TikTok的未来命运将如何？事件将会如何发展？对于其他具有中国背景的全球化公司，此事件又将带来怎样的影响？ 本期节目最初于4月初录制。随着事件的进展，部分内容已经过时。我们于4月23日根据最新情况进行了补充录制。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 1:21 TikTok事件不那么新的进展 3:20 TikTok危机：2020年与现状对比 8:20 字节跳动和TikTok在华府的策略失误？ 13:05 TikTok的“弹窗”策略过火了吗？ 19:37 “中国公司” vs. “美国公司” 21:25 Jeff Yass角色和特朗普的态度 24:30 中国背景的全球公司面临的困境 27:26 如何与美国媒体有效沟通 29:45 哪些人在反对TikTok法案 34:25 拜登与民主党对TikTok的矛盾态度 40:28 TikTok和哈马斯以色列冲突、年轻选民以及大选 45:38 用户隐私法案与Maria Cantwell 51:00 TikTok法案通过之后的走向 59:04 特朗普如再次当选对TikTok会有怎样的影响 1:00:19 4月23日之后的最新进展 1:08:23 迈克·约翰逊态度的大转变 1:18:10 拜登签字生效之后会发生什么？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 杨方曦（Ivy Yang）：小波咨询创始人、FT中文专栏作家 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 Both chambers of the U.S. Congress recently approved a $95 billion foreign aid package that includes a clause mandating ByteDance to divest TikTok. President Biden acted swiftly, signing the bill into law on April 24th, thrusting TikTok into another existential crisis in the U.S. What lies ahead for TikTok? How will this situation unfold? And what implications might this have for other global companies with ties to China? This episode was initially recorded in early April. With the latest development, some of the original content has become outdated. We recorded an update on April 23 to reflect the latest developments. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 1:21 Not-so-recent developments in the TikTok situation 3:20 The TikTok crisis: 2020 vs. now 8:20 Did ByteDance and TikTok make strategic errors in DC? 13:05 Has TikTok's “push notification strategy” gone too far? 19:37 "Chinese company" versus "American company" 21:25 Jeff Yass's role and Trump's stance 24:30 The challenges faced by global companies with Chinese backgrounds 27:26 How to effectively communicate with U.S. media 29:45 Who is opposing the TikTok bill 34:25 Biden and the Democratic Party's conflicting views on TikTok 40:28 TikTok, the Hamas-Israel conflict, young voters, and elections 45:38 The privacy bill and Maria Cantwell’s involvement 51:00 The direction things might go after the TikTok bill is passed 59:04 How would a Trump re-election affect TikTok 1:00:19 Latest updates after April 23 1:08:23 Mike Johnson’s flip-flop 1:18:10 What will happen after Biden signs the bill 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 杨方曦 (Ivy Yang): Founder of Wavelet Strategy, FT Chinese columnist 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 欢迎在抖音、微信号、小红书等平台关注“方曦说”

【聊了什么】 在特朗普枪击事件后，共和党全国大会在威斯康星州密尔沃基召开。整个共和党团结在特朗普身后，已完全成为特朗普的党。特朗普还选择了来自俄亥俄州的参议员JD Vance作为副总统候选人。 在播客的开头，我们也回顾了特朗普枪击事件对特朗普和拜登双方的后续影响。本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月19日晚间，录制时拜登尚未退选。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:07 特朗普枪击和共和党全国大会并没有减轻拜登退选的压力 00:24:45 共和党开了一场团结的大会 00:27:43 黑莉对特朗普的背书能帮到特朗普吗？ 00:30:19 特朗普的副总统选择——万斯 00:41:53 硅谷部分金主对特朗普和万斯的支持 00:48:59 卡车司机工会主席参加共和党大会 00:49:21 共和党转型成为“大帐篷”党？ 00:53:05 共和党党纲的变化 00:58:32 《2025计划》 1:01:50 特朗普的加冕和一波三折的演讲 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 After the Trump shooting, the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The entire Republican Party rallied behind Trump, clearly showing it has become his party. Trump also chose Republican Senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as his vice-presidential candidate. At the beginning of the podcast, we reviewed the impact of the Trump shooting for both Trump and Biden. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 19, 2024, Eastern Time, and at the time of recording, Biden had not yet withdrawn from the race. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:07 The Trump shooting and the Republican National Convention didn't ease the pressure on Biden to withdraw 00:24:45 Republicans held a unified convention 00:27:43 Can Haley's endorsement help Trump? 00:30:19 Trump's VP pick: JD Vance 00:41:53 Support from Silicon Valley donors for Trump and Vance 00:48:59 Teamsters president attends the Republican convention 00:49:21 Is the GOP transforming into a "Big Tent" party? 00:53:05 Changes in the Republican Party’s platform 00:58:32 Project 2025 01:01:50 Trump's coronation and his tumultuous speech 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/19/us/politics/biden-defiance.html

【聊了什么】 王浩岚做客友台《无时差研究所》，回顾了大选结果，也一起展望未来，从短中长时期，具体聊聊或许将有哪些转变即将发生。 欢迎在各平台关注《无时差研究所》。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢《美轮美换》并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 无时差研究所原文案 【Insider】2024年咱球最重要的政治事件之一美国大选暂时落下帷幕，本着「往者不可谏，来者犹可追」的宗旨，本期节目特别邀请美国政治长期观察者岚师和美国法律博士王瑞恩，不但回顾此次大选，更一起展望未来，从短中长时期，具体聊聊或许将有哪些转变即将发生。 主播 / 王妈妈 珂珂 嘉宾 / 王浩岚（播客：美轮美换） 王瑞恩（知乎：王瑞恩） 音频剪辑 / 珂珂 Shownotes / 王妈妈 接下来你将听到： ⭕️ 大选浅浅复盘：最为比烂的一届，还是游戏全新升级？ -「粮食和蔬菜」大战身份政治：大选之中，有哪些「情理之中」和「意料之外」 -马斯克的「贿选」行为是「以身入局、胜天半子」，还是「礼崩乐坏、斯文扫地」？ -摇摆州走向何处：翻红的州，未来四年会越来越红吗？ -今天的川大X胜怎么样了：美国大选概念股后续走势 ⭕️ 超短期前瞻：交接棒时分，还存在哪些变数？ -作为史上第一个以被定罪的重罪犯身份胜选的总统候选人，特朗普多大可能会在狱中宣誓就职？ -一个脑洞：如果特朗普就职前遇刺身亡，那么谁会就任总统，哈里斯还是万斯？ ⭕️ 中期展望：那些「承诺」，或许还在风中飘 -通货膨胀、非法移民、俄乌问题、……，这些「硬茬子」恐怕落得一地鸡毛 -「我真的有一头牛」：大选结果对留学生、海外华人的影响 ⭕️ 长远影响：美国政治老几样，还能整出什么活？ 最高法院九人天团是否会迎来新成员，这会是保守派的版本强势期吗？ 吃汉堡的男人最好命：五合一的特朗普会让所谓「新罗马」走上旧罗马的老路？ 一个彩蛋，2016年二位write-in候选人王瑞恩和王妈妈的竞选主张： 嘉宾王瑞恩有言，大选逐鹿、一时胜负，不过是大潮中的小小涟漪。在诸多情理之中和意料之外之间，咱们普通人既要把握其意义，意识到大洋彼岸的蝴蝶可以在自己的生活中扇起风暴；也要学会适度保持钝感，不妨采取调侃、看乐子心态抽离出来，通过解构实现祛魅。 看政治难免有点emo？点个外卖犒劳自己一下吧！ 现在在「饿了么」小程序中搜索「无时差研究所」，将会看到满20减5元的主播红包，每个ID每天可以领取三次，领取后当日有效。走过路过别错过哦！ 欢迎关注「无时差研究」所同名小红书、微博 如何加入听友群？ 微信公众号搜索「无时差研究所」，后台回复「入群」，扫描小助手二维码就可以啦！ “每一次准备播客的过程，都带我们走到了某一个小小议题的门口，而每个嘉宾都是一把钥匙，ta 领着我们看到了全新的、更大的世界，ta 让我对世界多了一些了解，即便每次都有一点点，它都成为了我们生命里的一个小小刻度，也希望它也能帮助到你~” 如果你喜欢我们，欢迎关注无时差研究所同名公众号给我们送来你的心意哦！同时欢迎在全平台搜索并订阅无时差研究所。

【聊了什么】 经过两天的审议，纽约法院陪审团裁定特朗普在“封口费”一案中34项伪造商业记录罪名全部成立。 由此，特朗普成为美国历史上第一位被刑事定罪的前总统。这一审议结果不仅震惊了美国政坛，也对特朗普未来的政治生涯投下一层不确定的阴影。 结果公布当天，我们紧急录制了本期节目，回顾整个案件的发展过程，并深入分析了不同政治团体的反应、公众舆论以及特朗普被定罪的法律和社会影响。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:08 陪审团9小时审议之后迅速判决意味着什么 08:03 “封口费”案回顾 13:30 关键证人盘点 22:30 有罪判决对选情的影响 32:04 右翼对判决的反应 35:28 负面党派情绪 38:54 民主党的应对策略 45:10 特朗普真的会入狱吗？ 49:51 特朗普面临的其它三项刑事诉讼 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 After two days of deliberation, a New York court jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the "hush money" case. This made Trump the first former U.S. president in history to be convicted of felony crimes. The verdict not only shocked the American political scene but also cast a shadow of uncertainty over Trump's future political career. On the day the verdict was announced, we recorded this emergency episode to review the development of the case and to analyze the reactions from different political groups, public opinion, and the legal and social implications of the verdict. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:08 What does it mean for the jury to reach a verdict after mere 9 hours? 08:03 Review of the “hush money” trial 13:30 Review of key witnesses and testimonies 22:30 How does the guilty verdict affect the presidential election 32:04 Reactions from the right 35:28 How the verdict deepens partisanship 38:54 Strategic repsonses from Democrats 45:10 Will Trump really go to prison? 49:51 The other three criminal lawsuits Trump is facing 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

美国前总统特朗普面临四起刑事起诉，他的麻烦有多大？ 【聊了什么】 美国前总统特朗普面临四场刑事起诉 —— 纽约封口费案、联邦机密文件案、联邦干涉选举案、乔治亚干涉选举案。我们对这四起案件的时间线、指控、影响进行了详细的盘点和分析，并讨论了这些案件对2024年大选的影响。 【会员计划】 美轮美换会员计划上线了！ 加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。 会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。 年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！ 众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 Timeline】 01:00 对四场刑事起诉的初印象 07:53 纽约封口费案 26:31 联邦机密文件案 49:19 联邦干涉选举案 1:12:08 乔治亚干涉选举案 1:20:10 四场刑事起诉的反应和影响 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者。 游天龙：《选·美》栏目创始人之一，美国政治的资深门外汉。 小华：媒体人，美政观察者。 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是大羊羊。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Donald Trump, the first ever president (former or current) in U.S. history to be charged with criminal activity, is facing four indictments – the New York State case on hush money payment, a federal case on classified documents, a federal case on election interference, and the Georgia State’s case on election interference. We went over each of the indictments in detail, offering in-depth analysis of the timeline, charges, and implications of these four indictments. Tune in to this episode as we discuss their potential impact on the 2024 elections and find out why this matters to you. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:00 Initial impressions of the four indictments against Trump 07:53 The New York State hush money case 26:31 The federal confidential files case 49:19 The federal election interference case 1:12:08 The Georgia State election interference case 1:20:10 The impact of the four indictments on the upcoming election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 游天龙 (Tinalong You): Co-founder of iAmElection, seasoned outside observer of American politics 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is 大羊羊. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 Trump indictment related to hush money payment Trump indictment related to classified documents Trump indictment related to election interference Trump and allies Georgia Indictment talich（华建平）：认识论决定了你我心中的世界 - 116 - 关雅荻·开放对话

【聊了什么】 7月13日，前总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒举行集会时，现场发生枪击案，特朗普右耳上部被击中。枪手在现场被特勤局击毙，枪击造成一名现场观众死亡。目前枪击案正被作为对特朗普的暗杀未遂进行调查。 我们在事件后第一时间录制了一起播客，对此事件及其影响进行了分析。我们还对历史上发生的针对美国总统的暴力事件进行了回顾。 本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月14日下午，播客录制后事件可能会有新的发展。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:24 枪击事件回顾 00:01:18 特朗普遭刺杀未遂对选情的影响 00:05:58 美国总统和总统候选人是世界上风险最高的职位 00:08:57 四年前和八年前民调的偏差 00:10:17 特朗普遭刺杀未遂让共和党空前团结 00:11:43 党代会引发的民调上扬 00:15:38 归根结底还在于摇摆选民 00:16:36 刺杀未遂重新定义特朗普的竞选形象 00:20:59 事件后续发展和两党反应相关 00:26:46 事件减轻了拜登被要求退选的压力 00:28:40 拜登团队和奥巴马团队的嫌隙 00:35:37 共和党和保守派对此事的反应和叙事 00:39:01 政治暗杀事件在美国历史上频频发生 00:46:13 对特朗普副总统人选的影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 On July 13, former President Trump was shot during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He sustained an injury to his upper right ear. The gunman was neutralized by Secret Service agents at the scene. The incident also resulted in the death of one rally attendee. Authorities are currently investigating the shooting as an attempted assassination of the former president. We recorded this podcast shortly after the event to provide a timely analysis of the incident and its potential implications. Additionally, we offer a historical perspective by reviewing past incidents of violence against U.S. presidents and presidential candidates. This episode was recorded on the afternoon of July 14, 2024, Eastern Time. The situation may have evolved since the recording of this episode. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:24 Overview of the shooting at Trump rally 00:01:18 How the assassination attempt affects Trump's campaign 00:05:58 U.S. Presidents and candidates face world's highest security risks 00:08:57 Analyzing polls from 4 and 8 years ago 00:10:17 GOP rallies behind Trump following assassination attempt 00:11:43 Post-convention bounce in the polls 00:15:38 Swing voters remain the deciding factor 00:16:36 Assassination attempt reshapes Trump's campaign narrative 00:20:59 Responses from Democrats and Republicans 00:26:46 Pressure on Biden to drop out eases after the incident 00:28:40 Friction between Biden and Obama camps 00:35:37 How Republicans and conservatives frame the incident 00:39:01 A look at political assassination attempts throughout U.S. history 00:46:13 Potential impact on Trump's VP pick 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 【拓展链接】 特朗普因遇刺“稳了”？学者：可以参考43年前的里根遇刺 https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v004jQUyxY7TELtgeS-_5Kxqq0oX4RSJw86rpRB7xUGnC--KQ__?spss=np&channelId=&aman=a1afdbD0d1Ebb4dd3cTe87Vdd4k25be219W4d5wdeb&gud=54a5958657 019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/presidential-debate-biden-replacement

【聊了什么】 特朗普选择副总统的过程被他办成了一场《飞黄腾达》，迷雾重重。这期节目录制于5月25日，但截至6月中旬，似乎也没有新的进展可以补充。一方面，特朗普确实将悬念拉满，另一方面，其实明面的牌早就摊得差不多了。除了特朗普的心思我们无法猜测，其他可以讨论的内容，你都可以在本期播客中听到。可以遇见，随着总统辩论和党代会的临近，我们距离谜底揭晓也不远了。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:00 什么时候开始挑副总统候选人 05:05 切尼搬家：为什么总统和副总统不能来自同一个州 08:10 选副总统的基本原则：平衡选票 10:05 平衡选票之拜登选贺锦丽（Kamala Harris） 11:42 贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）的亚裔背景为什么被忽视 14:58 平衡选票之特朗普选彭斯（Mike Pence） 18:32 特朗普看重的忠诚到底是指什么 26:38 忠诚对于追求特朗普政府内职务的人更重要 28:44 尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley） 30:16 马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 33:05 对副总统的执政经验的要求 40:05 特朗普需要潜在的副总统候选人干什么 41:30 继续聊黑利（Nikki Haley） 43:06 埃莉斯·史蒂芬尼克（Elise Stefanik） 46:45 JD 万斯（JD Vance） 49:10 盛产副总统的参议院 50:48 卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 52:10 蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott） 54:33 汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton） 01:01:53 凯蒂·布里特（Katie Britt） 01:02:58 本·卡森（Ben Carson） 01:04:21 卡丽·莱克（Kari Lake） 01:06:23 拉瓦斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy） 01:08:42 道格·伯古姆（Doug Burgum） 01:11:14 克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem） 01:18:38 莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯（Sarah Huckabee Sanders） 01:20:12 关于今年的总统辩论 01:26:43 格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott） 01:30:44 拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds） 01:32:20 图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard） 01:33:53 神棍一下特朗普会选谁 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 This year, Trump's selection of a vice presidential candidate has turned into a real-life version of "The Apprentice," shrouded in mystery. We recorded this episode on May 25th, and even by mid-June, there doesn't seem to be much new information. On one hand, Trump has genuinely kept the suspense high; on the other, it shows that the obvious options have already been laid out. While we can't predict Trump's thoughts, you can catch up on everything else worth discussing in this episode. As the first presidential debate and GOP convention approach, the revelation of his choice is likely not far off. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:00 When to start picking the Vice President candidate 05:05 Dick Cheney: Why the President and Vice President cannot be from the same state 08:10 Basic principles of choosing a Vice President: Balancing the ticket 10:05 Balancing the ticket: Biden choosing Kamala Harris 11:42 Why Kamala Harris's Asian background was overlooked 14:58 Balancing the ticket: Trump choosing Pence 18:32 What loyalty means to Trump 26:38 Loyalty is more important for those seeking positions within the Trump administration 28:44 Nikki Haley 30:16 Marco Rubio 33:05 Requirements for the Vice President's governing experience 40:05 What Trump needs from potential Vice Presidential candidates 41:30 Back to Nikki Haley 43:06 Elise Stefanik 46:45 JD Vance 49:10 The Senate as a breeding ground for Vice Presidents 50:48 Marco Rubio 52:10 Tim Scott 54:33 Tom Cotton 01:01:53 Katie Britt 01:02:58 Ben Carson 01:04:21 Kari Lake 01:06:23 Vivek Ramaswamy 01:08:42 Doug Burgum 01:11:14 Kristi Noem 01:18:38 Sarah Huckabee Sanders 01:20:12 About this year's presidential debates 01:26:43 Greg Abbott 01:30:44 Byron Donalds 01:32:20 Tulsi Gabbard 01:33:53 Irresponsible prediction on who Trump will choose 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

【聊了什么】 大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。 当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。 美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势 00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？ 00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？ 00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？ 00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？ 00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？ 00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？ 00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？ 00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？ 00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应 1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight. Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today. The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls 00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted? 00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist? 00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies 00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes 00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling 00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation? 00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator? 00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading? 00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans 1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn

【聊了什么】 2024 年美国大选的最后一场辩论（如果特朗普之后不变卦的话），也是副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹和 J.D. 万斯的唯一一场辩论，美国东部时间 10 月 1 日晚 9 点在 CBS 的纽约市演播室举行。 本期播客中，我们回顾了共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯与民主党副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹之间的辩论。我们从辩论的总体观感出发，探讨公众反应与舆论评价之间的差异，并审视这场辩论在多大程度上聚焦于实质性的政策讨论。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:46 辩论总体观感 06:30 舆论和民众对辩论观感的差异 13:09 这是一场关注政策的辩论吗 17:21 这是万斯成为MAGA接班人的里程碑之战吗？ 20:05 特朗普拯救了奥巴马医保？ 24:28 极化环境下两党如何争取摇摆选民 28:03 万斯在堕胎问题上的回答 32:03 特朗普的民粹主义是如何征服共和党的 34:23 万斯的形象为何如此负面 38:33 两位副总统候选人辩论中的亮点 41:12 大选最后冲刺阶段的展望 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 The final debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (barring any last-minute changes from Trump) took place on October 1st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Held in CBS's New York City studio, this marked the sole face-off between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. In this episode, we dissected the debate between Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance and his Democratic counterpart, Tim Walz. We start by sharing our overall impressions of the event, then delve into the disparity between public reaction and media commentary. A key focus of our discussion is how much the candidates engaged in substantive policy debate versus political rhetoric. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:46 Overall impressions of the debate 06:30 Gap between public reaction and media narrative of the debate 13:09 Was this truly a policy-focused debate? 17:21 Is this Vance's defining moment as a potential MAGA heir? 20:05 Did Trump inadvertently save the Obamacare? 24:28 Courting swing voters in a polarized political landscape 28:03 Vance's stance on the abortion issue 32:03 How Trump's populism reshaped the GOP 34:23 Unpacking Vance's negative public image 38:33 Key moments from both VP candidates during the debate 41:12 Final stretch: What to expect as Election Day approaches 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.