Ripple Effect (International Crisis Group)

In the first episode of Ripple Effect, Steve and Michael talk with Colin Kahl, former under-secretary of defence for policy in the Biden administration, about the United States’ relations with the rest of the world as it moves toward a high-stakes election in November 2024. They discuss the foreign policy that the Biden administration inherited from Donald Trump in 2021, the kinds of changes Trump might make should he return to the Oval Office, and how the United States’ friends and adversaries would greet a second Trump presidency. They also parse how the upcoming election could shape conflict dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, the recent thaw in bilateral relations between the U.S. and China, and even the prospect of a shooting war between the U.S. and Mexico’s drug cartels.  Finally, they look at why the U.S. hasn't joined the global call for a ceasefire in Gaza and the possibilities for U.S. policy shifts as the war’s toll increases. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our United States page.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Steve and Michael talk with Kori Schake, Director of Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. A veteran of the George W. Bush administration and Republican critic of Donald Trump, Kori shares thoughts with Michael and Steve about why Trump’s landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses was not a referendum on Republican foreign policy; how to sell “conservative internationalism” to Trump Republicans; what she finds most worrying about the possibility of a Trump 2.0; what she dislikes about Biden 1.0; and what U.S. allies can do to Trump-proof their foreign policies in advance of the November elections. 

Check out Kori’s op-ed “The Case for Conservative Internationalism” in Foreign Affairs. For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our United States page.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Steve and Michael talk with Ambassador (ret.) Norm Eisen, senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and expert on law, ethics and anti-corruption, about the legal challenges facing Donald Trump in the run-up to the November elections and their potential impact on the ballot. They unpack what’s behind each of the four criminal trials and other litigation currently underway against Trump and whether any of them has the potential to derail his run for the presidency. They look at the risk of a new spike in political violence as Trump’s legal battles unfold. They also discuss how Washington’s allies should navigate the fraught legal environment in the U.S. as the elections draw closer.

Check out Norm’s latest New York Times monthly column titled “There Is Much More at Stake in Trump’s Manhattan Case Than Just Hush Money” and his article in Lawfare “The Consequences of Jack Smith’s Rush to Trial”. You can find more of Crisis Group’s analysis on U.S. foreign policy on our United States page.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael Hanna is joined by Leslie Vinjamuri, U.S. and Americas programme director at Chatham House, and Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to talk about how the November elections will affect Washington’s approach to multilateralism and its engagement with the UN. They assess how Washington’s relations with the UN and its partners might change should Donald Trump return to the White House. They also discuss how Trump and Biden might differ in how they would engage with China and Russia at the UN, which countries would welcome a second Trump administration, and what the outcome of the elections could mean for the future of U.S. policy on conflicts and crises around the world.

Check out Leslie’s op-ed in Foreign Policy, “What Another Trump-Biden Showdown Means for the World”. For more of Crisis Group’s analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our U.S. and Multilateral Diplomacy pages.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the state of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence as the U.S. heads toward the November elections. They break down how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society. They assess the potential risk factors that could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections and how they compare to the 2020 elections. They discuss how Washington is navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions. They also talk about what politicians on both sides of the aisle can do to mitigate the risk of political violence in the near term.

For more, check out Rachel’s piece Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. You can read more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode on our United States program page.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Gérard Araud, who represented France at both the United Nations and in Washington, DC and currently serves as a Crisis Group Trustee, to talk about how European leaders are preparing for a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, and what the implications of a Trump win would be for Ukraine, the trans-Atlantic partnership, and the prospects for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy”. They discuss the rise of populism in Europe. They also discuss how French and European leaders judge the performance of the Biden administration so far and what they would expect from a second Biden term should he be re-elected.

For more, check out our United States program page.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Shivshankar Menon, Crisis Group trustee and former Indian National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary, to talk about India’s perspective on the U.S. election, what a second Trump presidency would mean for relations between New Delhi and Washington, how bilateral relations have evolved under President Biden’s administration and how India is carving out its place in a changing world order. They discuss how India views the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, its evolving relations with Russia and Israel, and New Dheli’s perspective on the U.S.-China rivalry. They also discuss the state of democracy in the U.S. and, more broadly, the potential ramifications of the upcoming elections for international peace and security. 

For more, check out our Shivshankar’s latest article in Foreign Affairs All Powers Great and Small as well as our India and United States pages.

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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Editor of Foreign Affairs, to talk about where U.S. foreign policy might be headed after the November elections as conflicts and crises swirl around the world. They take a look at Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ competing views about Washington’s role in global affairs and who either presidential candidate might choose to fill their national security cabinet. They assess how a Democratic and Republican administration would differ in tackling the deepening conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere. They also discuss how U.S.-China policy and Washington’s relations with Tehran might evolve after the elections.

For more, check out Daniel’s book The China Mission and our United States pages.

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