Real Vision: Finance & Investing (Real Vision Podcast Network)

👉 Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven’t dared try? The futures market is more active now than ever and Plus500 Futures is the perfect place to start. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. 🔥 *Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report:* https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Andreas is back with Raoul Pal  @RaoulPalTJM  our special guest to break it all down live… Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to break down the strength of the US dollar, inflation expectations, and the role of liquidity in driving growth. 📣 This episode comes to you thanks to Plus500. Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments—S&P500, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, Gas, and much more!  Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere—right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you’ve been waiting for. See a trading opportunity? You’ll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you’re ready? Not a problem. Plus500 gives you an unlimited, risk-free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience - Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in Futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction: 01:32 - The Dollar Surge: What's Driving Currency Markets? 03:07 - Trump's Economic Strategy: Tariffs, Dollar Strength, and Negotiations" 05:20 - Monetary Policies in 2025: Echoes of 2016 and QE Predictions" 07:17 - Bitcoin and Markets: Parallels to 2017 and the Next Move 12:30 - UK Bond Market Troubles: A Canary in the Coal Mine? 15:43 - Inflation and Liquidity: Navigating the Economic Crossroads 20:40 - Retail Sales Boom: The Early Signs of Economic Revival 27:53 - Crypto’s Liquidity Role: How to Prepare for the Next Rally 33:07 - Closing Thoughts: Upcoming Events and Macro Strategies Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw. It may not be "DeFi Summer" just yet, but the reports of DeFi's death have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, decentralized finance hit the main stage in U.S. Congress a few weeks ago when the House Financial Services Committee's digital assets-focused subcommittee held a hearing on the subject. One of the people representing the industry at that hearing was Amanda Tuminelli, chief legal officer at DeFi Education Fund. She and the fund's CEO, Miller Whitehouse-Levine, join Ash Bennington alongside Mona El Isa, CEO of the founder at Avantgarde Finance and founder of DeFi protocol Enzyme, for an in-depth health check of DeFi. Timestamps: 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed in your financial journey. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision's Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. They dive into the havoc wrecked on the jobs market, the continuously moving plans to reopen the US economy, and Dr. Fauci's warning today to the US senate. They also review what's happening in the Eurozone and which European economies may be a model for the US's own reopening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. Stronger UK Growth, Rising Inflation & Tariff Fears Shake Markets The UK economy beat expectations with 0.1% GDP growth in Q4 and 1.4% YoY, lifting manufacturing output (+0.7%) and boosting the British Pound. But elsewhere, markets are on edge. 📈 U.S. CPI came in hotter than expected at 3%, delaying hopes for a Fed rate cut. Powell warns that inflation progress isn’t enough yet to justify easing. 📢 Trump ramps up trade tensions, preparing reciprocal tariffs for any country imposing levies on U.S. goods—right before his meeting with India’s PM Modi. 🏛️ Markets react: Equities fluctuate while gold sees renewed demand as a safe haven. Stay ahead with today’s market breakdown. 🎧 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries.  Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/  Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul01,2021 :Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, managing editor, and Weston Nakamura to discuss the decline in U.S. jobless claims and surging oil prices as OPEC agrees to increase production. The trio covers the economic recovery as jobless claims decline and advanced unemployment benefits expire. Additionally, they explain the implications of OPEC’s decision to increase production starting in August as oil prices spike due to demand from wealthy countries. Burke and Farley continue to follow the delta variant as new countries institute travel restrictions to prevent the spread. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul02,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to discuss the June jobs report and capital markets price action. The trio covers the strong increase in U.S. jobs and its effects on underlying markets. Bennington and Farley analyze the rise in both bonds and stocks as positive employment data boost investor confidence. Ritchie provides his insight into the equity markets and the potential rotation back into tech. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul06,2021 :Weston Nakamura returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on oil prices as OPEC+ struggles to strike a deal. Nakamura, joined by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, shares his thoughts on other commodities and market sentiment as elevated prices could serve as evidence for temporary supply bottlenecks or persistent inflation. The pair looks at China’s increased regulation and its impact on Chinese companies traded in U.S. markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul07,2021 :Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on FAANG stocks, the retreat from Chinese tech stocks, and the release of the FED’s FOMC minutes. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Samuel Burke to discuss the rise in tech stocks as bond yields fall to a 4-month low. Additionally, the trio analyzes DIDI’s situation amidst Chinese regulation and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting released today Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul08,2021: Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley to make sense of the risk-off sentiment that dragged down almost every stock index worldwide deep in the red. Boockvar scrutinizes the U.S. bond market and attributes the violent flattening of the yield curve to the FOMC meeting earlier this month that rocked market participants. He tells Burke and Farley how the churning of certain reflation trades in light of the Delta Variant is affecting his perspective on energy, copper, precious metals, as well as equity markets in Developed Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

CB-Jul09,2021: The 8-day rally in U.S. Treasury bonds finally breaks as global equities take back much of yesterday’s sell-off. Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Weston Nakamura, and Jack Farley analyze today’s price action, as well as how the surge in job openings surge in the U.S. is reshaping dynamics in the American labor market. Lastly, Weston shares his thinking on correlations between U.S. bond yields and price swings in $AMC and other meme stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-July16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to share his thoughts on Real Vision’s recent campaign, “After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs” as well as provide a strategic update on his macro thinking. Together, they discuss the highlights from the campaign as well as their takeaways, and Raoul explains the role that NFTs serve in his Exponential Age framework. He also touches on the broader financial markets, talking through his perspective on the evolving inflation narrative that has captured market sentiment. To learn more about "After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs," click on this link here: https://rvtv.io/NFTWeek Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul23,2021: Along with Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal welcomes Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, for his Real Vision Daily Briefing debut. As a special edition of the Daily Briefing, Pal and Brigden will be diving deep into their respective frameworks, discussing the differences in how they’re seeing the macro picture as well as rallying around where they are aligned. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul30,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to share his thoughts on earnings for tech and energy companies as well as the continued uncertainty surrounding Chinese tech stocks. Ritchie covers the market’s negative reactions towards Amazon’s earnings release and its signaling of economic growth. The trio looks at the continued crackdown against Chinese tech equities and overcrowding of the U.S. IPO market. At the end of today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fifth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-July15-2021: Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss a pandemic low for jobless claims and market reactions to recently released manufacturing surveys. The trio takes a look at the labor market dichotomy between jobless claim decreases and labor shortages. Dillian shares his perspective on sectors he is watching as FED governors voice their support for tapering talks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul22,2021: Petr Pinkhasov of Real Vision's Exchange joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss new data related to jobless claims in addition to developments surrounding central bank actions to deal with inflation. Pinkhasov also explains the effect of supply increases on oil prices and how central banks are approaching tapering asset purchases. The trio analyzes the increase in jobless claims despite the labor shortage that many business owners are experiencing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul29,2021: Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss his outlook for the economy by analyzing jobless claim data and GDP forecasts in addition to commenting on Robinhood’s IPO. The trio covers the decline in jobless claims and its implications for the state of the labor market. Dillian examines Robinhood’s price action on its first day of trading and criticism of its payment for order flow business model. During today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fourth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

China bids adieu to zero-COVID this week after its borders reopened, and investors are flocking in to capitalize on these long-awaited trading opportunities. Andreas takes a step back to examine the Chinese economy as it currently stands and digs into how the reopening may affect prices across various asset classes. Recorded on January 10, 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul21,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to share his insights into market expectations of economic growth as stocks continue to move higher and inflation fears wane. The trio takes a look at Bitcoin’s price actions as it struggles to meaningfully move higher. Boockvar also dives into the recent bond rally to determine investor expectations of inflation and examines the future of oil prices as supply increases are imminent. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Gathering Special: Mustafa Yilham, VP of Global Business Development at Bixin; Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer for CoinShares; Caroline Cochran, co-founder and chief operating officer of Oklo; and Whit Gibbs, founder and CEO of Compass Mining discuss how Bitcoin will ultimately prove a net positive for the greening of the planet. Given recent comments from individuals such as Elon Musk on their concerns over Bitcoin's adverse affects on the environment, the Real Vision Crypto team felt that it would be only proper to present our audience with an alternative viewpoint. Recorded live on March 24, 2021 at Real Vision's Crypto Gathering. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul 13,2021: Tommy Thornton, president at Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss the CPI print released today, equity pricing, and earnings season. Thornton, along with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, examines the effect that the CPI print will have on the FED’s dovish commitment to the economy. Additionally, the pair looks at how different markets are reacting to the high consumer price index figure and if sentiment is changing towards inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul20,2021: With U.S. stocks rallying off of yesterday’s steep selloff while bonds remain relatively flat, what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the Monday selloff and what that spells for equities, bonds, commodities, and the dollar going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

👉 *Use code "realvision15" to get 15% OFF tickets for Consensus 2025 in Hong Kong:* https://coindesk.com/consensus-hk 🔥 *Get my FREE report + 30 days of access to my research service The Exponentialist* https://rvtv.io/40wvAe5. Canary Labs and rektguy co-founders Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson, also the creator of the Mando Minutes newsletter, are back to discuss the narratives and themes driving the crypto market right now. On the latest REKT Vision, they analyze whether Donald Trump's crypto-related executive orders delivered on campaign promises or kicked the can down the road, global central bank moves, SOL ETF developments, and much more. 👉 Join us in Miami at the Crypto Gathering (Jan 30 - Feb 1, 2025) https://rvtv.io/4ephGzg 👉 Join our Discord channel and meet like-minded people: discord.com/invite/kYQY2Nd45Y Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul27,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington on the Daily Briefing to discuss price action within the NASDAQ as well as the continued onslaught against Chinese tech companies. Thornton walks through the sectors that he believes are strong and how to navigate the uncertainty surrounding popular tech companies in China. At the conclusion of today’s briefing, Ash will preview the second part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul12,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on inflation expectations and market sentiment as the S&P 500 hits a new intra-day high. Dale joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Samuel Burke to examine the results of the New York Fed’s Consumer Survey for inflation expectations. Additionally, the trio looks at the possibility of an ECB policy shift as it looks to continue its monetary stimulus to support Europe’s reopening economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul19,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Ash Bennington to share his updated framework on equity markets, bond yields, and oil prices as delta variant concerns force a market correction. Dale dives into macro data points indicating whether the stock market correction is driven by the delta variant or overbought assets. The trio also examines OPEC’s decision to boost output and its long-term implications for oil’s bull run this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jul26,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound, Chinese regulatory concerns, and deflationary signals on Dale’s radar. Dale explains potential tailwinds for Bitcoin’s recent strength despite the increase in China’s regulation of technology and educational companies. Before the briefing concludes, Ash and Jack will preview an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION'. 🔥 Get access to the exclusive monthly AMA and drinks session with OSF and Mando by signing up to RV Crypto https://rvtv.io/44e8Yj0. REKT Vision is back with rektguy and Canary Labs co-founder Mando and Popset co-founder Sergio "Sergito" Silva (filling in for OSF again) to review the biggest narratives this week. They dig into the German government's bitcoin sell-off, the breakdown in crypto and the tech sector's correlation, Solana's Firedance upgrade, and more. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world's largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana's Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there – this is the one event you can't miss this year. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION'. 🔥 Get access to a monthly exclusive drinks session with OSF and Mando by signing up to RV Crypto: https://rvtv.io/44e8Yj0 Watch this on Real Vision for so so much more - content, trade ideas, notes, AI, research and an epic community. All in one place. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Facebook: https://rvtv.io/facebook Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If the Republicans maintain control of Congress, why might it become easier to buy stolen goods by accident? Alex and Justine discuss, also touching on wordy regulations, the emotional reaction to wealth disparities, and Justine's mixed driving record. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

 Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Will turmoil in Turkey send global markets skidding? And why might such an economically small country have an incredibly outsized effect? Raoul Pal, co-founder CEO of Real Vision and founder of The Global Macro Investor, discusses with Justine and Alex. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk through the social, political, and economic ramifications of the various U.S. presidential election outcomes in tandem with the risk of a more forceful and perhaps lethal second wave of COVID-19. Ash and Ed discuss how the policy outcomes in a Biden administration are more limited than what a Trump administration would be such as the fate of FAANG and Trump’s recent executive order regarding the dismissal of civil servants. They also consider what would happen to stimulus after the election, how markets have priced in a blue wave and how the outcome could be deviations away from expectations, and what the policy response might be to a rise in hospitalizations. Ed also explains the impact the hysteresis effect could have on the economy and consumers as well as how that may lead to more durable consumption changes post-COVID. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes China’s Ant Group raising $34 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. Filmed on Oct 26, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged on the last trading day of the month, but it was still the worst January for the Nasdaq since 2008. According to Mark Ritchie, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, we’re probably not going to see the type of V-shaped recovery that we saw in March 2020. Although last Monday marked a potential momentum low, “per my work,” notes Ritchie, “we are already in a cyclical bear market.” Earnings have been mixed so far, and investors are still focused on the Federal Reserve and other central banks as they prepare to fight inflation. Ritchie joins Maggie Lake to talk about financial markets and what’s changed early 2022. And Weston Nakamura joins to talk about the impact of China going silent ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GtgoS5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s already been a good year for hydrocarbons, with crude oil and natural gas prices rising along with geopolitical tensions in Central Europe. The threat of war is now driving up prices of agricultural commodities, including wheat, barely, corn, and rapeseed, with consequences far beyond the region. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss emerging opportunities in real assets. Meanwhile, India plans to launch a digital rupee during the fiscal year that starts April and to impose a 30% tax on transfers of virtual assets, as one of the world’s key markets warms to cryptocurrency. Real Vision’s eyes and ears in India, Nipun Kalra, joins to talk about crypto’s big win on the subcontinent. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ghKtJE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ADP employment report for January showed a net loss of jobs, consumer spending is slowing, and President Biden is sending 3,000 troops to Eastern and Central Europe in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Like Apple’s, Alphabet’s fourth-quarter results blew away expectations. But those look like exceptions to the rule of a generally mixed earnings picture. Against increasing economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical instability, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates a total of 175 basis points in 2022. Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Hj4jzU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

European Central Bank President Christine LaGarde now concedes the potential need for a rate hike in 2022 in the face of record-high inflation on the Continent, the same day the Bank of England announced a second consecutive increase to its benchmark rate since 2004 and began its “quantitative tightening” process. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, both Facebook parent Meta and PayPal have experienced massive value destruction in the aftermath of soft fourth-quarter results and softer forward guidance. Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about central bank moves, big tech earnings, and broader economic and market realities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3CUo5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It wasn’t just the nonfarm payrolls data for January that moved markets on Friday. Upward revisions to prior months’ reports put a fresh glow on the U.S. economy – and also invited questions about Federal Reserve policy. “Too late the hawk” is how Harry Melandri might put it. Melandri, currently an advisor with MI2 Partners and formerly of Deutsche Asset Management and the Bank of England, notes that we have hit our “max non-inflationary growth potential.” In fact, the Fed “could tighten a lot without having a restrictive monetary policy.” The issue now could be either how big is the “everything bubble” in the U.S. or whether inflation or growth is the central bank’s key policy objective. Melandri joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake at the end of one of the most fascinating weeks in recent financial market history. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rsVnTh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index posted an impressive 14.8% gain during 2021, but nearly all of it came in the first quarter. And weakness over the ensuing nine months carried into the first month of 2022, when the index shed 9.7%. Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, notes this frustrating performance came despite generally strong earnings growth for small-cap companies. Gannon joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to share his outlook for small caps over the balance of 2022, including the fact that it’s the only major asset class to have outpaced inflation during every decade since the 1930s. And rising interest rates could provide an additional tailwind for small-cap value stocks such as regional banks. Meanwhile, major indexes reflect uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for January, as investors weigh the potential for a 50-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HBlVau Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, interviews George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist in his first appearance on Real Vision. As former insiders of the Dallas Fed and US Treasury primary dealers, Danielle and George deconstruct the US Dollar liquidity problems and help clarify the major structural issues confronting the repo markets. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in New York - introduction provided by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Emmanuel Macron of France met with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in Moscow on Monday and emerged with what seemed like good news: There’d be no further escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Indeed, equity indexes rallied, and crude oil prices backed off seven-year highs. But the Kremlin, while conceding the meeting had provided the basis for further work toward deescalation, said Macron’s interpretation of Putin’s intentions was “not right.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden hosted new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks about the situation in the Baltics, agreeing that construction of the critical Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline would be stopped should Russia invade Ukraine. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort out implications for stock and commodity markets in light of recent geopolitical events. Tony also talks about why the FAANG stocks have lagged of late, particularly relative to energy. And Weston Nakamura, our man on the ground in Asia, drops in to share insights on China’s recent moves to accommodate markets even as western policymakers withdraw stimulus. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3guKIB9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Japan Machine Tool Orders, the best leading indicator of the global industrial cycle, accelerated in January. And recent data suggest the backlog at Los Angeles Port may begin to ease by summer. At the same time, the coming Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a major wild card for investors. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about why, according to his analysis, “deflation” is now equal to “inflation” as the dominant short-term market regime. Was the January sell-off merely a precursor to a larger correction? However the case turns, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “right-tail hawkishness” means more volatility. Darius shares his thoughts on a murky macro picture and how specific assets are likely to perform under various scenarios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HESUe5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index for January 2022 was up 0.6% and 7.5% year over year. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he’s become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, would now like to see a total of 100 basis points of rate hikes by July. In the aftermath of Bullard’s comments, federal funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point hike in March. Rent has gone up nearly 30% in some cities, but the grass isn’t greener for would-be homeowners. U.S. mortgage rates have surged to a two-year high, with the average 30-year fixed rate up to 3.69% from 3.55% last week. Meanwhile, the European Commission has raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.5% from 2.2% due to high energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss today’s CPI report and what it means for the Federal Reserve, markets, and your portfolio. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3swruR5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Equity indexes faded into the close today, as investors continue to weigh prospects for a diplomatic solution to the simmering problem in Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated his hawkish stance on inflation, noting that it may be necessary to “front-load” interest-rate hikes. But the Bank of Japan remains on the side of easy money and “yield curve control.” This divergence among central banks could have major ramifications for stock prices, particularly high-growth tech names, as Weston Nakamura explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington in today’s Daily Briefing. Be sure to watch Weston's YouTube video here: https://rvtv.io/3uJCXj4. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oPv7Ax. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ever wanted to know more about Raoul’s story? Interested in how he approaches not only his investments but life generally? Curious about what made it possible for him to retire for the first time at 36? In this special crossover episode, Raoul finds himself in the guest seat as My First Million host Shaan Puri probes Raoul’s background, his life philosophy, and the facts behind his first million. Shaan and Raoul also explore Raoul's Bitcoin-versus-ethereum "bet" as well how NFTs are commodifying culture for the first time in history. For more information on My First Million, please visit: https://www.mfmpod.com. Recorded on February 24, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bond yields retreated and U.S. equity indexes swung from red to green and back again, as the global community continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UK-based BP dumped its 19% stake in Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft, while Switzerland stepped forward from centuries of neutrality to freeze Russian assets held by its banks. And Singapore has imposed its own sanctions on Russia, a rare move by the southeast Asian country. Officials elsewhere have taken steps to cut off Russia’s access to its estimated $630 billion of foreign reserves. The Russian ruble has collapsed, while Russia’s central bank more than doubled its benchmark interest rate to 20% and closed the country’s stock market on Monday. Russian bonds tumbled, and investors braced for the possibility that Western sanctions could push Russia to default for the first time since 1998. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to assess the geopolitical situation. And Harry Melandri, Advisor at MI2 Partners, is here to appraise markets’ reaction in today’s edition of the Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3poBBa6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and a key input for consumer prices, rose 1% in January, doubling the 0.5% consensus forecast. The PPI was up 9.7% year over year, easing from the 13-year-high readings of 9.8% for the previous two months. Increases were registered across the board, but goods prices continue to lead services prices. It’s more fodder for a Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates next month. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has ordered some troops be pulled back from positions along the Ukrainian border and has committed to further diplomatic talks with the U.S. Equity indexes surged on apparent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while crude oil and natural gas prices slid on the news. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss today’s developments. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3gQ2miK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision's managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst sit down to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Nick Correa talks about the new waves of infections in South Korea and the country's unique challenges in containing and stopping the spread. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crisis in Eastern Europe has escalated to new levels, as Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the deployment of troops to rebel-held areas of Ukraine. Prices for energy commodities, including crude oil and natural gas, spiked on the news. And wheat, a key export from the region, is also rising. Weston Nakamura joins Ash Bennington for a look at the geopolitical situation through the lens of global markets in today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Cross-asset analysis, as Weston notes, is the best way for investors to understand what is a complex situation, on the ground in Europe as well as for people making decisions about their portfolios. How will the Federal Reserve’s approach to its tightening cycle change, if at all? And what will China do? Join Weston and Ash for a discussion of what recent price action tells us about the world right now. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3v5I651 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A Russian military convoy continues to bear down on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and its most populous city. Its progress has been slow, much like the broader invasion. But news from Eastern Europe continues to roil markets, with the three major U.S. equity indexes all down at least 1.5% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are sliding, and the CBOE Volatility Index is spiking. Commodity prices are surging, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil up nearly 9% on the day, Brent crude up nearly 8%, and corn and wheat both up more than 5%. Meanwhile, with the global community’s sanction regime still taking shape, the Russian ruble is now worth less than one cent versus the U.S. dollar, and Russia’s stock market remained closed for another full day. “At this point,” notes Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, “we cannot say how the conflict will end in the short term.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the geopolitical situation. And Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is here to talk about how financial markets are reacting to events on the ground. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/35jzRrH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As detailed in the just-released minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. central bankers are going to tighten faster than they did during their last rate-hiking cycle. And they’ve accelerated plans to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Still, Jerome Powell and company will be challenged to rein in inflation while keeping both investors and consumers happy. Meanwhile, Darius Dale sees in the January Producer Price Index data some light at the end of the tunnel, as the numbers suggest global supply-chain and inflation pressures may be abating. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the big picture, including the question of whether the January stock selloff was merely prologue to a more serious crash later in 2022. Weston Nakamura joins to preview the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, which kicks off tomorrow in Jakarta, Indonesia. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uRAu63. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Investors face a dilemma of seemingly mythological proportions, stuck between the Scylla of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Charybdis of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. And one monster theoretically feeds the other, as rising geopolitical tensions continue to drive crude oil and natural gas prices higher and add to inflation pressures in the United States. President Joe Biden’s sanctions regime appears to be targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, as he navigates a complex set of international and domestic problems. Ukrainian banks and government websites are under cyber attack and Russian troops have crossed its borders, as this 21st century struggle continues to unfold. How will literal war in Eastern Europe play into the Fed’s figurative war on inflation, with market rates already creeping up? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to assess financial markets in context of the present geo-macro situation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3sdD0SD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“GOLD.” That’s it; that’s the tweet Jared Dillian has published twice in the last couple days, as the yellow metal has surged more than 2%. A store of value (and a medium of exchange) for millennia, gold didn’t respond as inflation fears swelled during 2021. Now that the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are hitting multi-decade highs, though, alongside still-rising tension in Eastern Europe, it’s back in favor. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says 30% of his portfolio is made up of gold, silver, and precious-metals miners. And two weeks ago he tweeted, “I have a hunch that what’s coming next will make it feel like it’s not enough.” Dillian joins Real Vision Daily Briefing host Ash Bennington to talk about gold and why it remains a sound investment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GREEgR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked global financial markets, highlighted by a 31% spike in the spot price for European natural gas. Brent crude oil crossed the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel mark, and the May 2022 Euronext wheat contract surged by nearly 8%. U.S. equity markets were mixed two hours ahead of the close of regular trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index down 1.63% and 0.69%, respectively, but the Nasdaq up 0.61%. Bond yields are falling, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Russian tanks are rolling across Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s troops now control the Chernobyl nuclear site, and Western allies expect Kyiv to fall within hours. Jacob Shapiro, founder and chief strategist of Perch Perspectives, and Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation and markets’ reaction to the specter of the most significant conflict since World War II. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3t3TPhR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, gives Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, an inside glimpse of the seismic forces that are radically transforming the investment landscape — from SPACs and tokenization to data autonomy and virtual learning. Palihapitiya argues that old structures of capital formation, which prioritized buybacks rather than Research & Development (R&D) and "efficiency" rather than resiliency, will give way to a new future in which fintech companies will replace "too big to fail" banks, green energy will de-escalate geopolitical tensions, and tokenization will serve as a digital ledger for every financial transaction. Palihapitiya and Pal discuss the role of Bitcoin in this new world, and Palihapitiya advocates for a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Key Learnings: The old ways of managing companies and allocating capital were unsound, and COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that the "emperor has no clothes." With radical change is on the horizon, investors should embrace these technological transformations in order to become a magnate of the future. Recorded on November 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Christian Alexander of Macro Link is one of the best-connected insiders in the hedge fund industry -- a "Jerry Maguire" figure with a broad and deep list of contacts. Three years ago, he spoke with Roger Hirst about the future of the industry, when "easy money" was the dominant regime. And, in November, he shared his thoughts on inflation with Maggie Lake, before wholesale and consumer prices spiked to multi-decade highs. Chris joins Maggie for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to update his thesis on hedge funds’ future as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch its first rate-hiking cycle since 2015-18. How will hedge funds adjust to the new reality? And what's Chris hearing from hedge-fund insiders about inflation, markets, specific assets, and the economy? Drop your questions for Chris on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0f611 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes soared on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a near 800-point gain and the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.86% and 0.92% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Equity futures indicated a positive open after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a willingness to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy. Still, fighting rages in and around Kyiv, though it appears Putin’s forces are not advancing as rapidly as their leader had hoped or planned. Joining Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation is Dee Smith, founder and CEO of Strategic Insight Group. And with us today to talk about how the nascent war might impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is the “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M2l05h. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The war in Eastern Europe has led to a meaningful shift in the market’s perception of what the Federal Open Market Committee will do when it meets in two weeks. Fed fund futures are still pricing in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike. But the odds of a 50-basis-point boost to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate are now near zero after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, said he was inclined to propose and support a 25-basis-point move. Meanwhile, the civilian death toll in Ukraine surpassed 2,000, and Russian forces continue to threaten major cities, including Kyiv. Financial markets remain volatile, with U.S. equity indexes surging more than 2%, even as crude oil prices continue to climb. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss recent price action in the context of his short- and medium-term strategy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36WMVUq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Re-pricing in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the dominant theme across global financial markets, with energy and food supplies top-of-mind for investors and policymakers alike. West Texas Intermediate crude reached levels last seen in 2008 on reports the U.S. federal government is actively considering a ban on Russian oil imports. Wheat is also trading at decade-and-a-half highs. And European natural gas has surged 79% since the onset of war. Squeezing Vladimir Putin seems the international community’s primary strategy right now. According to Bill Browder, a longtime nemesis of the Russian president, “The only way we can stop Putin is to starve him of resources.” Browder, co-founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and the leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to assess the impact of coordinated international sanctions on Putin’s government, the oligarchs who support him, and the Russian economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ClhVc6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sellers took control of the major U.S. equity indexes after lunchtime Monday and bond yields continued to climb, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s first move to boost its federal funds rate target later this week. Crude oil has sold off by nearly 25% from near-term highs, though inflationary pressures remain the central bank’s primary concern, even as the war in Eastern Europe shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The Fed must be mindful, however, that the economy was already slowing before Russia invaded Ukraine, notes Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis. And Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics center, points out that Russia’s economic contraction in a matter of weeks is comparable to the Great Depression, which took place over a number of years. China is another wild card, as its tech sector continues to sell off and officials are announcing new COVID-19 lockdowns. The Middle Kingdom’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is also generating heated speculation. Lacalle and Lipsky join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing, where they’ll discuss geopolitics, monetary policy, and markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLveFJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’re nearly one month into Russia’s war against Ukraine. Officials from Moscow and Kyiv have met intermittently for peace talks that have so far failed to bring a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitical tensions are once again showing up in energy markets. Several European Union member states are pushing for a fifth round of sanctions on Russia. Cutting off Russian crude would theoretically take 4% to 5% of global supply off the market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, under increasing pressure to ramp up its output, is calling on Western allies to do more to help counter attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on critical oil infrastructure. Investors are also weighing a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe stemming from an emerging variant. Izabella Kaminska, former editor of The Financial Times’ FT Alphaville blog and founder of The Blind Spot, joins Emil Kalinowski to discuss the latest geopolitical and financial headlines, with a focus on media and propaganda surrounding the war in Eastern Europe. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Jww8pv Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Jared Dillian puts it, when the prices of things we need are going higher and the prices of things we want are going lower, “it creates economic misery.” Things we need include fossil fuels and agricultural commodities. Things we want include stocks and bonds. In 2022, with stock and bond prices falling and commodity prices rising, wealth has evaporated, and the cost of living has increased. And the thing is, to seriously take on rising prices, the Federal Reserve is going to have to accelerate its monetary tightening cycle. “In order to stop inflation,” writes Dillian, “the Fed will have to engineer a recession.” We’re starting to see indications from sections of the yield curve that a downturn is imminent – for example, the yield on the five-year U.S. Treasury note exceeded the yield on the 30-year bond earlier today. Stocks, meanwhile, have enjoyed a two-week rally. Is there a way out for the Fed that doesn’t include recession? Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, interest rates, economic misery, and recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IMaiNH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes rallied early Tuesday, even as spiraling commodity prices promise even more upward pressure on inflation. Highlighting the day’s events was nickel soaring past the $100,000-per-metric-ton mark, which led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the key input for stainless steel. Soon after President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and coal effective immediately, the U.K. government said it would phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Shell declared it would stop all purchases of Russian crude and shutter its service stations in Russia, while Germany’s Uniper, a major buyer of Russian gas, said it won’t sign any new contracts for long-term supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded as high as $128 per barrel, Brent hit $132, and European natural gas prices remained near record highs. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MwxnH7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It’s safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile. Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday. This is all prelude to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve. But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment for oil rather than the U.S. dollar – must be weighing on Jerome Powell and company. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of war in Eastern Europe on commodity and financial markets and how policymakers are likely to try to manage it all. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KKXSai Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, “Inflation is much too high,” noting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his view that U.S. monetary policy must be tightened quickly to put a stop to upward pressure on inflation that’s already too high, repeating his call for a fed funds target rate above 3.0% this year. Meanwhile, a selloff in government bonds intensified on concerns that rising inflation will drag the nation’s economy into recession. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2019, as the Treasury market nears the end of what could be its worst quarter since 1973. Altogether, it looks like the hiking cycle could be more aggressive than previously forecast. But what if we have inflation all wrong? Could it be, suggests Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, that in a service-oriented economy “inflation” is just another word for “growth”? Deluard joins Warren Pies to discuss inflation and growth, monetary policy, and the likelihood of an inverted yield curve in the very near future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3qrBE5m Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to explore the latest developments in markets and macro. They dive into why debt mutualization won’t be enough to save Europe, what the elimination of GDP targeting means for China, and how Hong Kong’s limited autonomy is slipping from its grasp with China’s latest security law announcement. The pair also discuss the challenges of a solvency crisis, the rising threat of deflation, and the plummeting two year U.S. Treasury yield. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Although no formal agreements have been reached, Moscow has said it will redeploy troops and reduce military activity around Kyiv, and Ukraine has said it will adopt a neutral stance in exchange for a Russian ceasefire, stoking optimism the end of the war in Eastern Europe is in sight. Delegates from Russia and Ukraine met face-to-face in Istanbul Tuesday, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying the discussions had yielded the most significant progress to date. Equity indexes in Europe closed higher across the board, and U.S. stocks are holding solid gains two hours shy of the close of regular trading in New York. Meanwhile, the bond market is on course for its worst quarterly loss on record after the Federal Reserve launched its monetary tightening efforts this month and signaled the potential for more aggressive hikes. With tensions seemingly easing in Eastern Europe, inflation remains the major threat to global growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies to talk about the market’s response to Russia-Ukraine and the Fed’s response to inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ljle6U. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Global equity markets surged Wednesday on reports Ukraine is open to negotiating a compromise with Russia. Kyiv made clear it would discuss neutrality with Moscow but that it would not give up territory. Prices for commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, and wheat retreated. Gold, a favorite of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing guest Jared Dillian, also backed off recent highs. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is establishing a cryptocurrency policy, with the president issuing an executive order directing federal agencies to work together around six key areas: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit activity; U.S. competitiveness on a global stage; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation. The Department of Labor reported there were 5 million more job openings than available workers in January, another sign of a historically tight employment situation in the U.S. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about Eastern Europe, gold, digital assets, and inflation pressures. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/366SvTO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it official this afternoon, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%. The FOMC also boosted the interest on reserves rate and the reverse repo rate. In its statement announcing the decision, the FOMC noted with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war that “in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.” The Fed forecast year-end inflation of 4.3%, with a total of seven rate hikes through year's end. U.S equity indexes were mixed in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC announcement, as bond yields surged. Chinese stocks notched their biggest rally in 14 years, as President Xi Jinping’s government offered wide-ranging support for capital markets. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the FOMC’s decision, the complex set of circumstances central bankers face, and China’s accommodative moves. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on The Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3iauaz6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In another sign energy is now a second front in the Eastern European war, President Vladimir Putin has said he wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles. Putin’s move follows reports that European Union nations are considering joining the U.S. boycott of Russian oil and in the aftermath of a weekend attack on Saudi production facilities. Brent crude, the European benchmark, has surged again, rising nearly 5% Wednesday to $121. Energy costs will surely have the attention of an inflation-obsessed Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meester said she supports front-loading rate hikes, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she sees room for a 50-basis-point hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in May. That’s despite the fact that market rates are already negatively impacting the housing market, with new home sales down for a second straight month in February and mortgage refinance applications down 14% week over week. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about energy, inflation, and the Fed. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36C4JE6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity markets were mixed with just over two hours remaining in the trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index holding small gains and the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 Index down nearly 1%. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and the 30-year bond backed up again, as investors continue to seek safety amid the unfolding crisis in Eastern Europe. Crude oil prices slipped some, with West Texas Intermediate down 0.55% to $109.99 and Brent off 0.57% to $112.29. But grains continue to reflect rising pressures on current and future supply, with wheat up more than 7% and corn up nearly 5%. And it doesn’t appear as though Russian President Vladimir Putin is any closer to succumbing to the global sanctions regime that’s targeted the country’s oligarchs and hamstrung the lives of ordinary Russians. Indeed, missile attacks against Ukraine’s major cities are intensifying. Meanwhile, the fed funds futures market is still pricing in five interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as potential inflationary pressures increase. Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, and Frances Coppola, who writes and speaks on banking, finance, and economics, join Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to assess the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its broader global impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index increased 7.9% during the 12 months through February, another fresh 40-year high. And that measure doesn’t account for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy and food commodities. Crude oil prices have backed off 13-year highs on news the United Arab Emirates would support production increases by fellow OPEC members. And wheat futures have also retreated from 14-year highs. The European Central Bank acknowledged the threat of inflation to economic growth by announcing an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Equity markets remain volatile, which can be helpful for options specialists like today’s Daily Briefing guest Imran Lakha. Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about inflation, how central banks plan to address it, and the role cryptocurrency and gold can play in mitigating its effects on investors’ portfolios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34A0gRK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is underway, with yesterday’s 25-basis-point increase to the fed funds target range the first of what’s now forecast to be a total of seven such moves in 2022. Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conference that the Fed could finalize “quantitative tightening” plans as soon as the FOMC’s May meeting. The Fed expects inflation to come in at 4.3% in 2022 before it falls to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Policymakers adjusted downward their 2022 growth forecast, from 4.0% to 2.8%. U.S. equity indexes have responded positively to the Fed’s new hawkish stance. Market yields continue to climb, most notably the average 30-year mortgage rate. Volatility continues to be the primary characteristic of financial markets. Chinese stocks continued to rally on accommodative moves announced by government officials, but the nickel market remains an unsettled mess. The “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the Fed’s decision, the means it will employ to combat inflation, its forecasts for both inflation and growth, and financial markets’ response. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CNtwkF Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Reserve was already staring down an inflation problem well before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. One month into the war, there’s no clear end in sight. And constraints on key commodities will continue to drive prices and spur the creation of new supply chains. The Fed launched its tightening cycle with a 25 basis point increase to the fed funds target rate. The futures market is now pricing in a 50-basis-point move in May. Equity markets remain volatile. But the most interesting action may be in the bond market, where prices are falling faster than they have in decades as investors account for the Fed’s absolute focus on showing its commitment to fighting inflation. President Joe Biden is in Brussels to meet with NATO counterparts about Russia and Ukraine. But there are no easy answers for that conflict. However, Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, is here with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, the bond market, Bitcoin, and finding opportunity in disorder in today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JTKf8N Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Joe Biden announced a plan to release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months as part of the federal government’s effort to fight inflation. Releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR is an unprecedented step. But it’s unclear whether it will have a meaningful impact on oil prices. Earlier Thursday, OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 barrel per day production increase as of May, but that increase is in line with the cartel’s plan; it is not responding to oil consumers’ calls for significant output boosts. Oil investors everywhere seem to be holding the line for only gradual production increases, despite the ongoing crisis in Eastern Europe. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy at TD Securities, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the global crude oil market, current constraints on production and supply, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IV7RbE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Volatility remains the dominant theme for financial markets, as prices for energy and food commodities continue to rise along with hostilities in Eastern Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine has made central bankers’ fight against inflation that much more complex. And its broader ramifications multiply seemingly by the hour. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and the author of the forthcoming book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization,” joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss what is rapidly devolving into the biggest global crisis since World War II. As Zeihan notes, “Russia is often derided as a gas station masquerading as a country.” But this is an oversimplification. In fact, Russia – and its neighbors, including Ukraine – plays a critical role in global agricultural markets. Zeihan discusses fractured trade relationships, energy, agriculture, and what is an increasingly fraught future for the entire world. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tBW24G Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Making a long-awaited return to the Daily Briefing, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, economy, and, of course, the war in Eastern Europe. Governments around the world continue to react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the U.S. including $13.6 billion in aid to the latter as part of a $1.5 trillion spending bill and President Joe Biden suggesting an end to the latter’s “most favored nation” trade status. In another indication of an emerging deglobalization trend, Chinese tech stocks suffered their worst decline since October 2008 on increased regulatory scrutiny and fears of delisting from American exchanges. Raoul and Ash discuss the U.S. dollar, global trade, and the rising profile of cryptocurrency amid what remains the most interesting times most of us have yet experienced. Get your questions ready for Raoul, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pYiJyO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard was the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent from the decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Bullard wanted 50 basis points, and he’d like to see a fed funds rate of 3% by the end of 2022, not the 1.75% of the central bank’s current forecast. Bullard and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do agree that the economy can handle monetary tightening. And the stock market, with the S&P 500 on the way to its best week since November 2020, seems to accept the Fed’s outlook on growth. But the bond market sees something different – that is, a slowdown. The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, and the 10-year yield fell below the five-year rate for the first time since March 2020. Meanwhile, war in Eastern Europe continues to sow dysfunction, most obviously in commodity markets. Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, inflation and growth, China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tol3RY Be sure to grab your tickets to the Crypto Gathering here: https://www.realvision.com/cryptogathering Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Inflation is at four-decade highs in the U.S., and supply constraints caused by the war in Eastern Europe only increase upward pressure on crucial commodities. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the issue, to the point where futures markets are now pricing in more than nine rate hikes in 2022. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a two-year high on Friday, reaching 2.503% on expectations of aggressive tightening ahead. Still, the Fed is sticking with a relatively robust growth forecast. Investors are clear on the Fed’s path. It remains to be seen how Chinese policymakers will respond to threats to growth and stability. As the world continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it becomes clearer that major shifts are in process. Will the Chinese yuan ever overtake the U.S. dollar in the global currency hierarchy? What role could Bitcoin play in a revamped global system? More immediately, are we on the verge of a global liquidity crisis? Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Tony Greer to discuss these issues and more on today’s edition of Real Vision Daily Briefing. Got questions? Drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JGuIZz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about volatility across markets, the economy, and geopolitics. Stocks closed out their first losing quarter in two years on Thursday, and U.S. bonds had their worst three-month period in more than 40 years. The eurozone’s inflation rate jumped to another record high in March. Although prices dipped for the fifth straight day today, crude oil is 44.7% higher than it was a year ago, up 32% in February alone. The U.S. economy once again added more than 400,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, but companies across many industries say they’re struggling to find workers. And war continues to rage in Eastern Europe. What’s Raoul’s take? Get your questions ready, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3x1pDYm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay. Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, to forecast future economic growth and and the fate of fiscal stimulus going forward. With volatility rising and the recovery on ever shakier ground, DiMartino Booth clarifies the macro picture by looking at price action in the bond markets. Pal and DiMartino Booth will exchange their views on how markets will respond to these possibilities and explore the various potential paths that the economic recovery could take. DiMartino Booth will also be answering questions from Real Vision Plus members. Recorded on Oct 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday. Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of Shapeshift.io, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Shapeshift, the transition to a digital currency world, and some of the most exciting projects in crypto. Voorhees shares that Shapeshift was created when he realized that, for the industry to grow, people needed an easy way to swap between digital assets. He believes that society is actively transitioning from an analog fiat system of finance to a digital currency and blockchain one, and he has worked to support this transition with Shapeshift. Voorhees thinks that decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are some of the most important projects being built in crypto today, explaining that it’s critical to be able to trade in a decentralized and permissionless way. Key Learnings: The crypto ecosystem is still very young, but society is actively transitioning its financial systems to it. In order for this transition to happen fully, the sector needs to develop permissionless and decentralized infrastructure such as decentralized exchanges. These noncustodial exchanges are valuable to the security and permissionless nature of the system as a whole. Recorded on Jan 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. . Recorded on January 13, 2021 Key Learnings: Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview. Jason Wild, founder of JW Asset Management, sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, to discuss his career journey from pharmacist to investor with a firm that oversees $1 billion through a mix of investments in pharmaceuticals and cannabis producers. Wild’s early success came from assembling Arbor Pharmaceuticals and later selling it to KKR in 2014 for a large profit. He used the proceeds to invest in major Canadian cannabis companies, and he has since become one of the first U.S. institutional investors in legal cannabis companies. Today he is building the global cannabis company TerrAscend, where he is Chairman. Recorded January 14, 2021 Key Learnings: Wild identifies the top cannabis stocks to invest in and why he focuses on operating in limited-license states where there is less competition. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped drive investor demand in the cannabis industry and states and voters are finally realizing that cannabis legalization is a solution to help revive the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Recorded on January 26, 2021. Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper growth, ultimately leading to deflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar10,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to process the astonishing resistance rally in technology and growth stocks with high duration such as Tesla ($TSLA), Peloton ($PTON), DocuSign ($DOCU) and Zoom Video ($ZM). Jack notes that Tesla posted the 3rd biggest daily return in the history of the company, and Ed interprets the pause in the U.S. Treasury sell-off as gold staged a recovery and oil and copper lost the bid. The pair analyze the inclusion in the latest U.S. stimulus package of $86 billion worth of relief for failing pensions, and Ed shares why this bailout might prove a dangerous precedent. Lastly, Ed and Jack analyze the latest data showing that retail comprised a plurality of volume in the U.S. equity market as well as what the most frequented pages on RobinHood indicate about the rise of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and is mainly controlled by entities that are oppositional to the United States. Green believes that Bitcoin is the perfect example of markets indicating that something is incredibly successful, even when in actuality it is failing (or will fail), and that its price appreciation does mean that it is a robust system. Filmed on February 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Pompliano believes that there are many non-trivial indicators that suggest Bitcoin is robust and becoming widely adopted including the number of wallets, transactions, and hash rate. He believes there is a significant chance that Bitcoin will be adopted by a significant amount of the S&P 500 companies and nation-states. On the other hand, Green thinks it is extremely unlikely to see major adoption from the largest companies and nation-states, explaining that this could even harm the U.S. He believes that Bitcoin can be trivially attacked and taken down by a nation-state and that the system is not as secure as many people claim it to be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar23,2021. Lily Francus, independent quantitative researcher, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share her outlook on narrative economics, the NOPE Index, and the dangers of beta. On the one-year anniversary of the bottom in the S&P 500, Francus notes that this current market environment is marked by a great deal of short covering and portfolio rebalancing, which drive the “rotation” trade away from growth into value that has been playing out. Francus explains how the surge of retail traders (or “low-information traders”) has driven flows and exerted a serious influence, particularly in the sky-high volume of options contracts. Francus connects this to her theory on NOPE (“net options pricing effect”) before sharing with Bennington her advice to traders in this choppy market. For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar30,2021: What does the leveraged blow-up of Archegos Capital Management mean for risk assets? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer this question and update his outlook on stocks, bonds, housing, the U.S. Dollar, and gold as the bond rout shows little sign of stopping. Tony notes that the forced liquidation of Archegos ceased to impair stocks today—for now, at least—but remains as a potential sign that there is some market danger underneath the hood. Tony cites this as a reason why, on the margin, he is moving somewhat into cash and gold and out of stocks. Tony makes sense of the action in Treasury yields and tells Ash why he thinks the U.S. Dollar has been driving higher, especially against the yen. Tony speculates as to why commodities have proved resilient in the face of this dollar strength, which is normally a headwind. Lastly, Ash tells Tony about his evolving journey in the crypto world from a fan’s creation of Ash’s very own non-fungible token (NFT) to Ash’s experience buying Ethereum for the first time. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar8, 2021. As treasury yields continued their ascent today, big tech stocks such as Alphabet Inc ($GOOGL) and Apple Inc ($AAPL) joined growthy darlings such as Tesla, Zoom, and Peloton in today’s sell-off with the NASDAQ 100 closing today down 11% from its highs. Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Tyler Neville, senior editor of Blockworks, to break down the ongoing rout from growth stocks. Neville shares how he thinks this “bubble in duration” will end, where he sees opportunity in going short GameStop puts, and why he remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay: Segra Capital Management partner Arthur Hyde, CFA, and founder and portfolio manager Adam Rodman join Real Vision editor Max Wiethe to give an in-depth update on uranium. Hyde and Rodman provide a recap on the recent events in the sector and uranium's price movement, discuss why this is still a structurally undersupplied market, and share why interest in uranium is increasing. With the presence of COVID-19, they explain the risks that the pandemic poses to the uranium supply and that, despite these supply risks, the demand for nuclear power generation has remained resilient. They also dig into how existing and new nuclear energy will play a role in the secular global trend towards clean energy in light of China's, Japan's, and Korea's recent carbon neutrality pledges. Key Learnings: Hyde and Rodman explore how nuclear power is an underappreciated, yet critical player in the transition to clean energy, and the uranium sector only stands to benefit from this trend. Emphasizing that this transition will take years, they advise that investors should not be as preoccupied with uranium's price cycle—rather, it's more beneficial to focus on CapEx as a delayed CapEx cycle leads to sustained high prices in uranium. Recorded on 14 Dec , 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay : Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group, joins Wall Street veteran Harley Bassman of The Convexity Maven to discuss the impact of Fed policy on volatility across a handful of assets since the pandemic and, more broadly, since the GFC. In addition to this discussion of potential unintended effects of Fed policy, they examine its failure to generate meaningful inflation in anything aside from financial assets. They also debate whether negative rates in the US are probable—or even possible—as well as why the dwindling monetary policy toolbox combined with political rhetoric seems to point towards MMT and a passing of the baton from monetary authorities to fiscal authorities at least as it relates to generating inflation. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings: The Fed’s monetary policy has had measurable effects on markets, especially in terms of reducing volatility but has not been successful in generating inflation. The shift from monetary to fiscal policy could be what finally ushers in the period of inflation many have been predicting. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's free PDF report: https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. 👉 Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven’t dared try? The futures market is more active now than ever and Plus500 Futures is the perfect place to start. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. U.S. fiscal woes, bitcoin, gold, and Trump’s economic vision… Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the fiscal challenges facing America, how Trump will handle things, the potential for a bitcoin-friendly Federal Reserve, and his outlook on gold and commodities. 📣 This episode comes to you thanks to Plus500. Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments—S&P500, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, Gas, and much more!  Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere—right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you’ve been waiting for. See a trading opportunity? You’ll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you’re ready? Not a problem. Plus500 gives you an unlimited, risk-free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience - Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in Futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify Follow Daniel's YT channels:  @DanielLacalleOfficial   @DanielLacalleInEnglish  🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed in your financial journey. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

*SPONSORED CONTENT* Did you miss out on Breakpoint 2024? In partnership with Solana, Real Vision is releasing the best talks from Breakpoint 2024. In this product keynote, Yannik Schrade explains Arcium’s Solana-powered vision for a world where you can encrypt everything. Breakpoint is the annual gathering of the worldwide Solana community, hosted by the Solana Foundation. Breakpoint 2024 was held Sept. 20-21 in Singapore. For more information, go to https://solana.com/breakpoint. DISCLAIMER The content herein is provided for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only, and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, options, futures, or other derivatives related to securities in any jurisdiction, nor should not be relied upon as advice to buy, sell or hold any of the foregoing. This content is intended to be general in nature and is not specific to you, the user or anyone else. You should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise, based on any of the information presented without undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a professional advisor. Solana Foundation Foundation and its agents, advisors, council members, officers and employees (the “Foundation Parties”) make no representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information herein and expressly disclaims any and all liability that may be based on such information or any errors or omissions therein. The Foundation Parties shall have no liability whatsoever, under contract, tort, trust or otherwise, to any person arising from or related to the content or any use of the information contained herein by you or any of your representatives. All opinions expressed herein are the speakers’ own personal opinions and do not reflect the opinions of any entities. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed in your financial journey. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

🔥Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Rektguy and Canary Labs co-founders Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson are back to review the biggest themes and narratives this week, including ether falling less than bitcoin or solana, Nvidia's continued rise, worries about the memecoin cycle, and more. You can get access to the exclusive “Drinks with OSF and Mando” sessions and all the research and trade ideas in RV Crypto right here: http://realvision.com/rvc24 This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana’s Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there – this is the one event you can’t miss this year. 🔥Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. 🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices