Net Assessment (War on the Rocks)

This week, Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about a new report, “Rebuild: Toolkit for a New American Industrial Policy,” from the Center for a New American Security. The United States government has a number of ways to intervene in the economy to advance the national interest. The use of tariffs and the Defense Production Act by the last two administrations, as well as passage of the Infrastructure and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act, are measures that some argue will help the United States compete more aggressively with China. Should the United States have an industrial policy? What objectives should an industrial policy serve, and how is that determined? How would such a policy be implemented?

Zack gives a shoutout to the Institute for the Study of War for helping us better understand the war in Ukraine, Chris praises Cornell University Press executive editor Roger Haydon on his retirement, and Melanie suggests a good read on how the United States and Taiwan can best prepare the island for a Chinese invasion.

This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/galvanizing-americas-defense-industrial-policy

Zack and Melanie are joined by Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, to discuss the AUKUS security agreement between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. What does the pact say about these countries' assessment of the influence and ambition of China in the Indo-Pacific? France, which had an agreement to provide Australia with conventionally-powered submarines, was dropped in favor of the United States and United Kingdom helping Australia to develop nuclear-propelled submarines. Can AUKUS members repair their relationships with France? The deal provides a framework for cooperation between the countries on sharing information related to cyber, AI, quantum computing, and other technology. How might this arrangement affect national security as well as societies in the coming decades? Finally, should we be concerned about proliferation? 

Zack wishes the administration would be more forthright about how it worked to secure the return of hostages from China, Adam is unhappy with the departure of an important voice on nuclear issues from the Pentagon, and Melanie is happy it’s finally autumn!

Links:

Andrew S. Erickson, “Australia Badly Needs Nuclear Submarines,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 20, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/20/australia-aukus-nuclear-submarines-china/.

Ashley Townshend, “Far From Breaking with the Past, AUKUS Advances Australia’s Commitment to Collective Defence,” The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Sept. 24, 2021, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/far-from-breaking-with-the-past-aukus-advances-australias-commitment-to-collective-defence/.  

Caitlin Talmadge, "Don't Sink the Nuclear Submarine Deal," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-27/dont-sink-nuclear-submarine-deal.

Daniel Baer, “Sub Snub Has Paris in a Tizzy over AUKUS,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 17, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/17/aukus-france-submarines-australia/.

Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy, https://www.gcnuclearpolicy.org/.

James M. Acton, “Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sept. 21, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/21/why-aukus-submarine-deal-is-bad-for-nonproliferation-and-what-to-do-about-it-pub-85399.

IPA Talent Exchange Program, Partnership for Public Service, https://ourpublicservice.org/ipa-talent-exchange/.

Jen Psaki, "Press Briefing by Press Secretary," The White House, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/27/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-september-27-2021/.

Josh Zumbrun, “World Bank Cancels Flagship ‘Doing Business’ Report After Investigation,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-bank-cancels-flagship-doing-business-report-after-investigation-11631811663.

Lindsay Hughes, “Does Australia Need Nuclear-Powered Submarines and a Nuclear-Power Sector?”, Future Directions International, Feb. 25, 2021, https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/does-australia-need-nuclear-powered-submarines-and-a-nuclear-power-sector/.

The Net Assessment crew discusses possible military lessons from the war in Ukraine. It is too early to take away any definitive lessons from the war, but it is possible to start identifying and asking some key questions. Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate recent work by Rob Lee and others about why Russia’s army, air force, and cyber capabilities have proven so ineffective. Chris also asks why the National Security Strategy still isn’t published. Zack suggests the world should encourage and welcome Russian men fleeing conscription. And Melanie commends women in Iran for standing up for their rights.

This episode's reading: warontherocks.com/2022/09/military-lessons-from-the-war-in-ukraine

Net Assessment is back! Chris, Melanie, and Zack return after a hiatus and start by debating a recent article entitled “The Dysfunctional Superpower” by Robert Gates. They agree that Washington is deeply dysfunctional, but disagree about what can be done to overcome political obstacles and the degree to which this dysfunction gives Russia and China an edge. Chris questions additional inflation adjustments for fixed price defense contracts, Melanie criticizes the United Nations' unwillingness to recognize sexual violence in Gaza, and Zack welcomes new colleague Todd Harrison to the American Enterprise Institute.

This episode's reading. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the economic measures taken by the United States and Europe to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, especially those pertaining to oil and natural gas. To what extent are these policies responsible for rising gasoline prices? Can other measures be taken to replace Russian oil on the global market? Or should Western governments also employ demand restrictions, including possibly compulsory measures to discourage or prevent energy usage? And what political price should democratically elected governments be willing to pay in order to affirm the moral and strategic imperative of defeating Russia’s aggression against Ukraine? Grievances for Columbia’s Jeffrey Sachs who claimed that COVID originated in a U.S. lab, for super-virtuous people who take to Twitter on the Fourth of July to talk about how horrible the United States is, and toward self-absorbed TikTokers known as “Gentleminions.” Attapeople to FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression) and to the Quincy Institute for a smart report on defending Asia, and an atta-thing for all the ways that computers make our lives better (until they kill us).

Episode reading at: https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/an-energy-strategy-to-defeat-russia

Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border?

Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for noting for months that there won't be enough money for shipbuilding — and being right!; to the members of the House who voted to compel TikTok to divest from Bytedance; and to Sen. Bernie Sanders and five other senators for calling for a new Truman Commission to root out wartime profiteering.

This episode's reading:

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to make? Grievances for Donald Trump, for his plan to use recess appointments, and for his stated desire to rename U.S. military bases after loser Confederates, and to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto for some confusing statements about security in the South China Sea. Attas to President Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets in Russia, to the EU for freeing up more funds that can be used for defense, and to France for approving a $438 million aid package to help the Philippines enhance their maritime security capabilities, and for training Ukrainian forces.

This episode's reading

The crew convenes for the first show after Joe Biden’s election victory to consider how Americans want to engage with the rest of the world, and whether the incoming Biden administration will be able to heal the nation’s wounds while also restoring U.S. global leadership. Does an inward focus on the COVID-19 pandemic, a sluggish economy, and racial tensions necessarily mean that the United States will neglect the wider world? Or can it lead by example, proving that by solving its own problems it can help solve global problems as well? And in our polarized political environment, does it even make sense to talk about “Americans” as a unified whole? Or do differences between Republicans and Democrats, young and old, or rich and poor, prevent U.S. policymakers from crafting and executing a consistent and coherent approach to the world? Grievances abound for Republican elected officials’ collective unwillingness to acknowledge Biden’s victory, and attaboys to the American people for turning out to vote in historic numbers, and to the media for covering the vote-counting carefully and cautiously. And Melanie offers a heartfelt attagirl to her beloved niece Miri who is fighting a serious disease with grace and spirit. (Be warned: It’s a tear-jerker!)

Links:

• Jonathan Monten, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Dina Smeltz, and Jordan Tama, "Americans Want to Engage the World," Foreign Affairs, November 3, 2020
• Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm, “Divided We Stand: Democrats and Republicans Diverge on US Foreign Policy,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, September 17, 2020
• Mark Hannah and Caroline Gray, "Diplomacy & Restraint the Worldview of American Voters," Eurasia Group Foundation, September 2020
• “About Those Polls…,” The Daily, November 12, 2020
• Maggie Haberman, Michael D. Shear, Maggie Astor and Peter Baker, “Republicans Are Split over Whether to Call the Election Over,” New York Times, November 8, 2020
• Kaelen Deese, “Hogan Congratulates Biden, Harris on Election Victory: 'Everyone Should Want Our President to Succeed,'” The Hill, November 7, 2020
• Christopher Preble, “The Biden Administration Can Both Look Inward and Provide Leadership on the Global Stage,” Atlantic Council, November 9, 2020
• Aaron Mehta, "Where President-Elect Joe Biden Stands on National Security Issues," Defense News, November 8, 2020
• Elisabeth Braw, "Defense Spending and What We Can Learn from Sweden," On the Cusp Podcast, November 2, 2020
• Myhre Syndrome

Chris, Melanie, and Zack wade into the long-running debate on whether Europe can defend itself (chiefly from Russia), and how hard it should try. In a recent article, Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concludes that Europe is capable of conducting major military operations against a potential Russian attack, and that these capabilities serve as an important deterrent. But others doubt that Europe will ever be able to stand on its own without substantial support from the United States. The ultimate unknown, however, might revolve around how much autonomy the United States is willing to grant to key NATO allies — and how much autonomy they will demand in exchange for greater burden sharing. Zack offers up an atta-doctor/atta-deputy secretary of defense to newly confirmed Kath Hicks, while Chris praises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for showing the way on how schools can reopen. Melanie has a grievance against those who just can’t get along with others, even when they perform random acts of kindness, and Zack throws shade on people who refuse to put their names on major publications.

Links

• Barry R. Posen, “Europe Can Defend Itself,” IISS, December 3, 2020
• Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, “Sovereign Solidarity: France, the US, and Alliances in a Post-COVID World,” Future Europe Initiative, Atlantic Council, November 11, 2020
• Adam Weinstein, “What the Afghanistan Study Group Final Report Missed,” Inkstick, February 11, 2021
• Laura Meckler, “CDC Defends School Guidelines as Advocates Say They Make It too Hard to Reopen,” Washington Post, February 14, 2021
• Evan Braden Montgomery, In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers (Cornell University Press, 2016)
• Joe Gould, "Senate confirms Hicks as DOD's No. 2," Defense News, February 8, 2021
• Anonymous, "To Counter China's Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi," Politico, January 28, 2021
• Virginia Heffernan, “What Can You Do about the Trumpites Next Door?”, Los Angeles Times, February 5, 2021
• Our World in Data, Coronavirus Vaccinations by Country
• “Americans and Germans Differ in Their Views of Each Other and the World,” Pew Research, March 9, 2020
• Hans Van Der Burchard and America Hernandez, “US-German Tensions Over Russia-Backed Nord Stream 2 Pipeline,” Politico, January 21, 2021
• “What Would Happen if America Left Europe to Fend for Itself?”, The Economist, March 14, 2019

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the recently-released Biden-Harris National Security Strategy. Several months delayed, the document recognizes that the United States is in an intense competition with China and asserts that Washington will look for ways to cooperate with both allies and adversaries on important global challenges such as climate change. Does the NSS assess the threat environment correctly? How will the United States manage both competition and cooperation with adversaries? Is the U.S. doing what it must to “outmaneuver” China during this “decisive decade”?

Chris is bothered that it is hard to have an honest debate about what the United States is doing in Ukraine, Zack discusses the legacy of Ash Carter, and Melanie is appalled that American military pilots have been selling their services to the Chinese military.

Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/assessing-the-national-security-strategy

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss U.S. sanctions programs and how to make them more effective. In a recent War on the Rocks article focused on sanctions, Edward Fishman argues that the United States needs to take a hard look at our economic statecraft. Why have sanctions become the go-to answer to so many foreign policy problems? When should they be used, and when are they least effective? Does the United States have the institutional framework necessary for regular sanctions reviews and reform? Will Joe Biden’s team approach sanctions differently than previous administrations? Chris has thoughts on how members of Congress reacted to Biden’s strikes in Syria, Zack takes a principled position on one of Biden’s nominees, and Melanie welcomes her 13th niece to the world.

Links

• Edward Fishman, “Make Russia Sanctions Great Again,” War on the Rocks, October 23, 2020
• Constance Grady, “How Dolly Parton Became a Secular American Saint,” Vox, February 26, 2021
• “US Sanctions 23 Actors with Ties to Venezuelan Oil,” VOA News, January 19, 2021
• Peter E. Harrell, “Here’s How Trump Can Make Better Use of Corporate Sanctions,” Foreign Policy, February 5, 2019
• Natasha Bertrand, “Biden Readies His First Major Penalties on Russia,” Politico, February 22, 2021
• Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter, Harrell, and Ashley Feng, "A New Arsenal for Competition," Center for a New American Security, April 24, 2020
• Eric B. Lorber, "Securing American Interests: A New Era of Economic Power," Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance, February 2017
• Juan Zarate, Treasury's War (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013)
• Josh Rudolph, "Treasury's War on Corruption," Alliance for Securing Democracy, December 22, 2020
• Hugh Hewitt, "The GOP should Forgive Neera Tanden," Washington Post, February 20, 2021
• Gordon Lubold, Michael R. Gordon, and Andrew Jeong, "US, South Korea Near a Deal Over Cost of U.S. Forces on Peninsula," Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2021
• Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #2: Economic Sanctions Should Not always Be the Go-To Foreign Policy Tool,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, February 22, 2021
• Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #3: The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021

As we approach the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Daniel Byman’s article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism.” Byman surveys the various aspects of the “Global War on Terror” and concludes that, on balance, the United States and others have achieved a level of effort that is both strategically and politically feasible. But can we actually tolerate some level of risk from terrorism in the same way that we tolerate other dangers, from pandemics to severe weather events, or will political leaders always resort to maximalist promises to eliminate terrorism permanently? Was it inevitable that the Global War on Terror would amplify xenophobia and nativism, and what else can we learn from the efforts of the past 20 years? Grievances for critics of the "Blob,” special scorn for Sen. Chris Murphy, and "attapeople" to U.S. military personnel for their enormous sacrifices in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and to those civilians who are now helping to resettle Afghan refugees, as well as those displaced from other disasters.

Daniel Byman’s “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/good-enough-doctrine

Richard Stevenson, “Bush Faults Kerry on Terrorism Remarks,” New York Times, Oct. 12, 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/12/politics/campaign/bush-faults-kerry-on-terrorism-remarks.html

Christopher Preble, “We Are Terrorized: Why US Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing, and Why It Can’t Be Easily Fixed,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 8, 2016, https://warontherocks.com/2016/01/we-are-terrorized-why-u-s-counterterrorism-policy-is-failing-and-why-it-cant-be-easily-fixed/

Bill McCarthy, “Charlie Kirk baselessly claims Biden intentionally let Afghanistan fall to alter US population,” Politifact, Aug. 19, 2021, https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/19/charlie-kirk/charlie-kirk-baselessly-claims-biden-intentionally/

Jordan Mendoza, “Want to donate or volunteer to assist those affected by Hurricane Ida? Here's how to help,” USA Today, Aug. 30, 2021, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-help-storm-victims-louisiana-mississippi/5648004001/

“How to Help Afghan Refugees and the Relief Effort,” New York Times, Aug. 20, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/how-to-help-afghanistan-refugees.html

“Future Foreign Policy series: Congress and AUMF repeal,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-congress-and-aumf-repeal/

Tanisha M. Fazal, "The Case for Complacency," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2021-08-24/case-complacency.

Joe Biden, "Remarks on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/.

Darren Lim, Zack Cooper, and Ashley Feng, “Trust and Diversify: A Geoeconomic Strategy for the Australia-US Alliance,” US Studies Centre, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trust-and-diversify-a-geoeconomic-strategy-for-the-australia-us-alliance.

Susanna Patton and Ashley Townshend, “Kamala Harris's Asia Trip Can't Fix Biden's Troubled Indo-Pacific Strategy,” Foreign Policy, Aug. 24, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/kamala-harris-singapore-vietnam-southeast-asia-trip-biden-indo-pacific-strategy/.

Elliot Ackerman, “What the War on Terror Cost America,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/winning-ugly.

Michael McKinley, “We All Lost Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 16, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-16/we-all-lost-afghanistan-taliban. 

Jeffrey A. Singer, “Society Will Never Be Free of COVID-19--It's Time to Embrace Harm Reduction,” Cato, Aug. 26, 2021, https://www.cato.org/pandemics-policy/society-will-never-be-free-covid-19-its-time-embrace-harm-reduction. 

With American military and economic help on the way to Kyiv, Chris, Zack and Melanie discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war. Will the new American aid package make a difference in the outcome of the conflict? What should be Ukraine’s strategy going forward? What, if anything, can Ukraine and its partners realistically do to get Russia to make meaningful concessions at the negotiating table?

Chris has a very proud attaboy for his son who is graduating from college and moving into the real world, Zack questions the effectiveness of a protest in Washington, D.C., and Melanie criticizes Greenpeace for a very bad idea that could have devastating consequences.

This episode's reading.

As Africa is seeing a dramatic rise in violent conflict and elected governments there are falling to coups, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to discuss US policy for the region. What are America’s national security and other critical interests in Africa? What should the United States do to protect those interests? Does it matter that Russia and China are exerting military and economic influence in the region? Is it possible to both safeguard our national security interests there while upholding our professed democratic values? Chris criticizes the failure of Army officials to properly deal with a mentally-ill reservist who killed 18 people at a bowling alley in Maine, Zack condemns the Maduro regime for refusing to publish honest results from Venezuela’s presidential election, and Melanie gives a send-off to friend of the show David Pappalardo, who has completed his term as air and space force attaché at the French Embassy in Washington.  

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the world is multipolar and discuss what the United States can do to win support for its preferred policies, particularly in the Global South. They disagree on multipolarity but agree that Washington must pay more attention to non-aligned countries in the months and years ahead. Chris gives a backhanded attaboy to China’s ambassador to France, Melanie commends Elon Musk for SpaceX's Starship launch, and Zack criticizes him for Twitter's labeling of state-affiliated media.

Episode Reading: 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/multipolarity-what-is-it-good-for

Chris, Melanie and Zack review the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which asked foreign policy experts to rank 30 current and possible future conflicts relative to their likelihood and impact on U.S. national interests. The leading threat, according to these experts, was of political violence or domestic terrorism in the United States associated with the 2024 presidential election. Other leading threats were the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East arising out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and of continued migration from Central America and Mexico. The three consider these, as well as others that fell farther down the list, and asked, how can these be prioritized? What is being done to stop them? And what is the broader value in engaging in these ranking exercises in the first place?

Grievances for the Biden administration’s short-sighted new regulations on liquified natural gas, U.S. Middle East policy (does it make sense to anyone?), and the way our broken politics manages to infect even an all-American love story like Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Can we just give it a rest?

Attaboys to Navy Comptroller and friend-of-War of the Rocks Russell Rumbaugh, and Capt. Chris “Chowda” Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), and to the show for reaching 1 million downloads.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack end the year with a special episode of Net Assessment where they do a deep dive into their favorite films and television series. They discuss their favorite spy movie, World War II film, a movie that inspired their career, and one that is good for teaching.

Chris

• No Way Out
• A Bridge Too Far
• Holland’s Opus
• Crimson Tide

Melanie

• The Bureau
• Band of Brothers
• Law and Order
• Glory
• Black Hawk Down

Zack

• Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
• Saving Private Ryan
• Clear and Present Danger
• Thirteen Days
• Dr. Strangelove

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington.

This episode's reading.

On this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the so-called “new Washington Consensus” – a reaction to decades of trade liberalization and free market economics that, some warn, has undermined national security and left the United States and others vulnerable to economic coercion. In a recent article, Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman spell out the rationale behind new restrictions on foreign trade and investment and warn that “nothing less than a transformation of the U.S. government” is necessary to ensure that measures taken to protect our security don’t also weaken the global economy. Grievances for the impenetrable National Defense Authorization Act, Venezuela’s land grab, and Sen. Rick Scott’s ploy to designate garlic -- yes, garlic -- as vital to U.S. national security. Attapeople in this holiday season to those who deliver our packages, to Congress for delivering the National Defense Authorization Act, and to Finland for promising to deliver more munitions in 2024.

This episode's reading.

The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age.

This episode's reading

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about ongoing developments in the Arctic. Climate change is causing flooding and environmental damage, but it is also providing new opportunities for navigation, mining, fishing, tourism, and defense. How can America’s national security and economic interests best be protected in the face of increasing Russian and Chinese activity there? How should we prioritize the region when we have other critical threats to address? Have we and our partners that border the Arctic missed chances for influence there that we cannot recover? Is it possible for the United States to strengthen its position there without appearing to encourage an arms race?

Chris wishes we could consider the merits of arguments instead of personally attacking those making them, Zack condemns the Chinese government’s treatment of Olympian Peng Shuai, and Melanie looks at the hypocrisy of governors who claim to support free markets but want to prohibit businesses from imposing vaccine mandates.

Links:

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend, Partners, Competitors, or a Little of Both?: Russia and China in the Arctic, Center for a New American Security, March 2021, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/partners-competitors-or-a-little-of-both.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Lawson W. Brigham, and Nick Lokker, Navigating Relations with Russia in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Stability, Center for a New American Security, Nov. 18, 2021, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/navigating-relations-with-russia-in-the-arctic.

Berkeley Lovelace, Jr., “Pfizer says its Covid pill with HIV drug cuts the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%,” CNBC, Nov. 5, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/pfizer-says-its-covid-pill-with-hiv-drug-cuts-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-89percent.html.

David Auerswald, “A U.S. Security Strategy for the Arctic,” War on the Rocks, May 27, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-u-s-security-strategy-for-the-arctic/.

Frank Jordans, “Vaccine maker BioNTech to use mRNA tech to target malaria,” Associated Press, July 26, 2021, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/vaccine-maker-biontech-mrna-tech-target-malaria-79064005.

Future Foreign Policy Series: Reinvigorating US diplomacy, New American Engagement Initiative, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-series-reinvigorating-us-diplomacy/.

NAEI Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.

Rebecca Hersman and Eric Brewer, Deep Dive Debrief: Strategic Stability and Competition in the Arctic, Jan. 6, 2021, https://www.csis.org/analysis/deep-dive-debrief-strategic-stability-and-competition-arctic.

Steve Contorno, “Florida Special Session begins as DeSantis Continues Battle against Vaccine Mandates,” CNN, Nov. 15, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/politics/desantis-florida-legislature-vaccine-mandates/index.html.

"Taiwan," Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y18-07g39g.

Will Quinn, Tweet thread, Nov. 11, 2021, https://twitter.com/wc_quinn/status/1458891500344029189?t=l7ugkXe7tuA75d7XbjYd5Q&s=15.

"WTA says Peng Shuai's call with Olympic officials does not alleviate concerns about her well-being," ESPN, Nov. 22, 2021, https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32688106/wta-says-peng-shuai-call-olympic-officials-not-enough.

Zahra Ullah and Fred Pleitgen, “As the US and Russia Spar Over the Arctic, Putin Creates New Facts on the Ground,” CNN, May 21, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/21/europe/russia-arctic-military-intl-cmd/index.html.

Melanie, Zack, and Chris, survey the course of Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine at the one-year point, with a focus on a recent paper by RAND’s Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. How did we get here? What key assumptions have been tested? And what does that mean for the future? How do U.S. and Ukrainian interests in this war align or conflict? Does a long war serve anyone’s interest? And what are the prospects that this war will end any time soon? Grievances for China’s mishandling of the balloon fiasco, and to Disney for bowing to the Chinese Communist Party’s implicit censorship. Attapeople to those negotiating a new Compact of Free Association with countries in the South Pacific, for the few smart voices trying to dial down the hysteria over balloons, and to those members of Congress hoping to repeal the 2002 Iraq war AUMF.

This Episode's Reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/one-year-of-war-in-ukraine

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about America’s nuclear policy. Are we in a new “nuclear age,” as some Biden administration officials and experts have argued? Does a bleak security environment, where China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, mean the United States should develop more and different nuclear weapons? Should we be more open to allies and partners going nuclear?  

Chris is grateful for foundations that support serious policy research, including the Stanton Foundation, which has just made a $45 million gift to MIT’s Security Studies Program, Zack has a grievance for the corrupt government of Venezuela, and Melanie (again) laments the bipartisan opposition to Nippon Steel buying U.S. Steel. 

This episode's reading.

As observers in Washington look back at the Biden administration’s first year and prepare for its forthcoming national security and defense strategies, the Net Assessment crew debates the virtues of muddling through. Does the Biden team have a grand plan? Does it need one? And are errors of omission worse than those of commission?

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate recent articles on muddling through by Josh Rovner, Richard Fontaine, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. Chris gives an attaboy to Tom Brady, since he hasn’t won enough already. Melanie issues both a grievance and an attaboy to Newt Gingrich. And Zack hails the wonders of easily available satellite imagery.

Links: 

Joshua Rovner, “How Long can Biden Muddle Through on China?” War on the Rocks, Jan. 26, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/how-long-can-biden-muddle-through-on-china/. 

Richard Fontaine, “The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism,” Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/case-against-foreign-policy-solutionism. 

Richard Fontaine, “Washington’s Missing China Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-01-14/washingtons-missing-china-strategy. 

Anne-Marie Slaughter, “It’s Time to Get Honest About the Biden Doctrine,” New York Times, Nov. 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opinion/biden-foreign-policy.html. 

Amy B. Zegart, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2022), https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691147130/spies-lies-and-algorithms.

Stacie L. Pettyjohn, "Spiking the Problem: Developing a Resilient Posture in the Indo-Pacific with Passive Defenses," War on the Rocks, Jan. 10, 2022.  

Dustin Walker, “The Pentagon is in Desperate Need of an Intervention from the Top,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 27, 2022. 

Joe DiPaolo, " Newt Gingrich Says January 6 Committee Members 'Face a Real Risk of Jail' if Republicans Win the House," Mediaite, Jan. 23, 2022. 

Liz Harrington, Tweet, Jan. 30, 2022. 

Newt Gingrich, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022. 

The Hill, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022. 

Stephen Breyer, "Why Regulation Rarely Achieves the Goals It Is Designed to Serve," PBS Commanding Heights (no date).

Jeff Darlington and Adam Schefter, “Tom Brady retiring after 22 seasons, seven Super Bowl wins with New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sources say,” ESPN, Jan. 29, 2022,

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33173652/tom-brady-retiring-22-seasons-seven-super-bowl-wins-new-england-patriots-tampa-bay-buccaneers-sources-say. 

Dustin Volz, “Vast Troves of Classified Info Undermine National Security, Spy Chief Says,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/vast-troves-of-classified-info-undermine-national-security-spy-chief-says-11643286602. 

Oona Hathaway, “Keeping the Wrong Secrets: How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat,” Foreign Affairs (January-February 2022), https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2021/12/14/keeping-the-wrong-secrets/content.html. 

Patrick G. Eddington and Christopher A. Preble, “Bad Idea: Overclassification,” Defense360, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dec. 6, 2019, https://defense360.csis.org/bad-idea-overclassification/. 

Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper, “Engagement Reframed #1: Vaccinate the world,” New American Engagement Initiative, Feb. 1, 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/engagement-reframed/vaccinate-the-world/.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether national security has been defined too loosely. If too many things fall under the category of national security, do we risk missing the really important ones? How should policymakers decide what is a national security threat--and what isn’t? What are the first-order national security threats facing the United States? And how can government decision-makers impose some discipline on how they think about and manage true national security threats? Grievances for China’s (other) bad behavior in the South China Sea and to the Military Sealift Command for taking 17 support ships out of service due to inadequate staffing. Attapeople for the Biden administration in helping to keep the U.S.-Chinese relationship from going completely off the rails; to the U.S. intelligence community and the U.S. media for their deft handling of Iranian attempted election interference; and to Ely Ratner and others in the Biden administration for negotiating a new compact with India.

This episode's reading.

Upcoming elections could pull France to the right and the United Kingdom to the left, so the Net Assessment team discusses how this might alter policies in Paris and London. They discuss articles by Ulrike Franke and David Lammy, which sketch out the implications for French and British policy, respectively. In particular, what would it mean for the European Union and NATO if London doubles down on Europe just as France pulls away? Chris questions the value of Congressionally-required unfunded priorities lists, Melanie applauds Kaja Kallas's selection as the European Union’s chief diplomat, and Zack commends progress made to host nuclear-powered submarines in Perth, Australia.

This episode's reading.

Zack, Chris, and Melanie get together to discuss the latest Space Threat Assessment report from the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. People all over the world are ever-more dependent on assets in space for normal activity in their daily lives, but there are few rules of the road in place to manage space behavior. Will it be possible to develop a system of cooperation that allows for freedom of movement in space but also protects the economic and national security of all countries? Should we be concerned about the rapid growth of private satellites and related equipment in space? Secretary of Defense Austin said that “Space is already an area of great power competition.” Given the interests of China, Russia, and the United States in space, are we heading into a space arms race?

Chris has an attaboy for a thrilling victory at the Kentucky Derby, Zack remembers a friend who has departed too soon, and Melanie doubles down on America.

Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/out-of-this-world/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Doyle Hodges’ recent article scrutinizing Gen. Mark Milley’s behavior in the waning months of the Trump administration. Journalists have rendered a relatively favorable treatment of Milley’s insubordination, but Hodges questions the long-term implications for civil-military relations. Should senior military officers be expected to follow lawful orders, even if they are morally objectionable? Or is resignation the only proper response when those in uniform cannot faithfully execute an order? And is the problem of civil-military relations unique to the Trump administration or does the Milley case portend a future in which the military’s standing is filtered through the same partisan lenses that inflict our politics across the board? Grievances for two former Pennsylvania judges who sentenced juveniles to for-profit prisons (and got rich), toward India for joining Russia’s military exercises, and to President Joe Biden abusing his authority to relieve student debt. Atta-people to the Ukrainian military for its first major counter-offensive of the war with Russia, to Clayton Forrester and all others behind the decision to re-introduce wolves to Yellowstone National Park, and to all those behind an important essay series exploring the future of airpower.

This episode's reading:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/not-their-plane-to-land-generals-thwarting-the-chain-of-command

Chris, Melanie, and Zack return to discuss Richard Haass’s critique of “Washington’s new flawed foreign policy consensus.” The Council on Foreign Relations president laments the bipartisan turn away from the mostly internationalist spirit that has informed U.S. foreign policy since the end of the World War II.

Is he right? Does such a consensus exist? And does that explain why successive U.S. presidents seem so skeptical of internationalism? The three also try to discern what Haass favors as an alternative, but conclude that dissatisfaction with the current direction of U.S. foreign policy doesn’t easily translate into specific and implantable policies.

Grievances for Katherine Tai for an underwhelming speech on U.S. trade policy, for Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley for holding up ambassadorial appointments, and to those who harassed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — in the restroom! — for being … jerks.

Attagirl to Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa who braved abuse and intimidation for uncovering corruption and misrule in the Philippines and elsewhere. Chris gives a shout out to Reps. Jim McGovern and Peter Meijer for introducing legislation to rein in executive power, and Melanie praises the developers at GlaxoSmithKline for their life-saving new malaria vaccine. She also gives a special shout out to her nephew Zack and his Utah state champion golf team at Long Peak High School.

Links:

Richard Haass, “The Age of America First: Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-29/biden-trump-age-america-first.

Richard Haass, “What Mike Pompeo doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy,” Washington Post, July 25, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/25/what-mike-pompeo-doesnt-understand-about-china-richard-nixon-us-foreign-policy/.

New American Engagement Initiative Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.

New American Engagement Initiative Future Foreign Policy series with Rep. Joaquin Castro, Monday, Oct. 18 at 3:30 pm, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-series-featuring-rep-joaquin-castro/.

“America is shorthanded in foreign affairs. Thanks, Ted Cruz,” Washington Post, Oct. 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/10/america-is-shorthanded-foreign-affairs-thanks-ted-cruz/.

Ankit Panda Twitter, https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1447366126447570946?s=12.

Apoorva Mandavilli, "A 'Historic Event': First Malaria Vaccine Approved by WHO," New York Times, Oct. 6, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/malaria-vaccine-who.html. 

Connor O’Brien, “Lawmakers aim for blockbuster overhaul of war powers, arms sales,” POLITICO, Sept. 30, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/30/war-powers-act-bipartisan-overhaul-514794.

Dina Smeltz, Ivo Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Emily Sullivan, "A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class--What Americans Think," Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Oct. 2021, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/ccs2021_fpmc_0.pdf.

Peggy Noonan, "Progressives Hold the Capital Captive," Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-progressives-aoc-squad-sinema-reconciliation-infrastructure-lbj-approval-polling-11633643510. 

Tyler Haslam, "High School Golf: Kihei Akina Leads Lone Peak Knights to 8th State Title in 9 Years," Deseret News, Oct. 5, 2021, https://www.deseret.com/2021/10/5/22708095/high-school-golf-kihei-akina-leads-lone-peak-knighs-to-8th-state-title-in-9-years-6a-uhsaa. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Joshua Rovner’s recent War on the Rocks article, “Intelligence in the Biden Administration.” Rover argues that President-elect Joe Biden should immediately rebuild relations with the intelligence agencies. How can he go about doing that in difficult political circumstances and after years of them being treated with contempt during the Donald Trump administration? What role does Congress have in ensuring our intelligence agencies are functioning properly? How will Biden use the intelligence community to enhance U.S. security and prosperity? The crew also wonders why, with other national security team members in place, Biden has not yet named a secretary of defense. Finally, Chris surprises us with a promise to make a holiday dessert, Melanie has some praise for those working on vaccines, and Zack gives a shout out to the Bombshell podcast hosts as their amazing show ends. 

Links

• Joshua Rovner, "Intelligence in the Biden Administration," War on the Rocks, November 25, 2020
• Robert Jervis, "Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash," Political Science Quarterly, November 02, 2010
• Samantha Lee, "Moderna's Groundbreaking Coronavirus Vaccine Was Designed in Just Two Days," Business Insider, November 26, 2020
• Rosa Brooks, "It's Time for a Woman to Run the Defense Department," The New York Times, November 30, 2020
• Christopher Krebs, "Trump fired me for saying this, but I'll say it again: The election wasn't rigged," The Washington Post, December 1, 2020
• Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, "Pentagon Purges Leading Advisors From Defense Policy Board," Foreign Policy, November 25, 2020
• Zack Cooper, "Bad Ideas Series: 'Great Power Competition' Terminology," Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1, 2020
• Brad Stapleton, “The Problem with the Light Footprint: Shifting Tactics in Lieu of Strategy,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 792, June 7, 2016
• Paul R. Pillar, “Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss whether it is possible, and wise, to try to stave off a conflict with China over Taiwan — possibly for a very long time. A recent article by Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass urges policymakers to find ways to forestall conflict. But is it a mistake to presume that conflict with China is avoidable? Should the United States make peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait the government's overarching goal, or should Washington agree that at some point there will be military conflict, and do everything possible to prepare for that now? Or is there a bipartisan consensus in Washington that cannot be contained pushing for confrontation with China in general, and especially over Taiwan? Attapeople to outgoing members of Congress Elaine Luria and Peter Meijer, and to Taiwan for offering effective COVID vaccines to China. Grievances for China’s reckless and shortsighted COVID-19 policy, for Tik Tok spying on people, and for the Navy’s troubled littoral combat ship.

Episode Reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/debating-the-defense-of-taiwan

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the Pentagon's new concept of "integrated deterrence" and try to divine its meaning and importance. They struggle to differentiate the concept from existing theories of deterrence and conclude that this phrase seems better suited to identifying a problem, rather than describing a solution. Chris encourages listeners to use the Defense Futures Simulator, Melanie applauds Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya for her courage, and Zack commends Lloyd Austin and his team for a successful first trip to Southeast Asia.

Links:

• Oren Liebermann, "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin lays out vision of future in first major speech," CNN, May 1, 2021, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-lays-out-vision-of-future-in-first-major-speech/ar-BB1geVXr?ocid=se.
• Jim Garamone, "Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence," DOD News, June 2, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2641068/official-talks-dod-policy-role-in-chinese-pacing-threat-integrated-deterrence/.
• Lloyd Austin, "Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Participates in Fullerton Lecture Series in Singapore," U.S. Department of Defense, July 27, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2711025/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-participates-in-fullerton-lecture-serie/.
• Kurt Campbell, "The Changing China Debate," Chatham House, August 20, 2020, https://americas.chathamhouse.org/article/the-changing-china-debate/.
• Babie Latza Nadeau, "D.C. Mayor Muriel Boswer Snubs Her Mask Mandate Within First 24 Hours: Report," Daily Beast, August 1, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/washington-dc-mayor-muriel-bowser-snubs-her-mask-mandate-within-first-24-hours-report-says.
• Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard, “A mom’s guide to coercion and deterrence,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, March 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-moms-guide-to-coercion-and-deterrence/ 
• Erica Borghard, Reality Check #3, “The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Policy Brief, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-3-the-uses-and-abuses-of-deterrence/ 
• War on the Rocks Defense Futures Simulator, https://www.defensefutures.net/
• Ellen Knickmeyer, Lolita C, Baldor, and Matthew Lee, "'Welcome Home': Evacuation Flight Brings 200 Afghans to US," Military.com, July 30, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/07/30/welcome-home-evacuation-flight-brings-200-afghans-us.html. 
• Dustin Jones and Joe Hernandez, "Belarusian Sprinter Granted Polish Humanitarian Visa after Refusing Flight Home," NPR, August 3, 2021, https://www.npr.org/sections/tokyo-olympics-live-updates/2021/08/02/1023618626/a-sprinter-seeks-asylum-after-refusing-to-board-a-flight-back-to-belarus-from-to. 
• Brad Roberts, "On the Need for a Blue Theory of Victory," War on the Rocks, September 17, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/on-the-need-for-a-blue-theory-of-victory/. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship?

Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.

This episode's reading

In the first Net Assessment recorded before a live audience, Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss the U.S.-Turkish relationship. Has America “lost” Turkey? What are the benefits and limitations of transactional relationships, rather than alliances? How should NATO manage alliance members whose interests and behavior seem to be at odds with alliance purposes? They then take questions from participants in The Fund for American Studies programs. Chris has a grievance for a Pentagon program to discredit the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine, Zack condemns China’s ongoing aggression against the Philippines, and Melanie has an attaboy for Bill Gates’s effort to build smaller and safer nuclear reactors.

This episode's readong.

Is the National Defense Strategy actually a strategy? Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Biden administration’s recently released National Defense Strategy. Do integrated deterrence, campaign, and enduring advantage add up to more than the sum of their parts? Does the unclassified version of the National Defense Strategy make any hard choices to connect ends and means? Melanie commends those U.S. service members who evacuated thousands of people from Afghanistan. Chris complains about incessant political advertisements ahead of the midterm elections. And Zack thanks his teammates from the Alliance for Securing Democracy.

Episode Reading: 

https://warontherocks.com/2022/11/debating-the-national-defense-strategy

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy. Is this document really a strategy? What are the biggest problems we need to fix with respect to our defense industrial base? Considering the state of where we are now, is it even possible to get our industrial house in order in the near term to deter or prevail in a conflict with an adversary?

Chris has a grievance for those who couldn’t believe Donald Trump’s recent NATO comments (where have they been for the last eight years?), Zack thanks Rep. Mike Gallagher for his service, and Melanie is unhappy with the response to legislators trying to come to an agreement on the difficult issue of immigration reform.

This episode's reading.

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate whether the international order is fraying and if so, what to do about it. They focus in particular on the recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and discuss how the United States should respond. Melanie questions Liz Truss's support of expedited defense exports to China and Chris laments the lack of communication around Lloyd Austin's delegation of authority while Zack makes Chris a job offer he can refuse.

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Quincy Institute’s new report on U.S. defense strategy in Asia. They applaud the report for presenting a detailed plan and for highlighting the areas of both agreement and disagreement among the authors. They question the political feasibility of the strategy and whether it is sufficient to address the challenges that China poses. Zack remembers Shinzo Abe for his vision, Chris criticizes Joe Biden for a fist-bump, and Melanie commends the Webb telescope’s incredible images.

For episode reading, click here: https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/active-denial-or-in-denial

Is AUKUS flawed by design? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the AUKUS deal, particularly the newly announced plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Is this the best way to get a critical capability in Australian hands? Does it make sense from a cost or capability perspective? And should the United States be worried about selling Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, right at the moment of greatest need? In addition, Chris commends Europe for stepping up, Melanie critiques President Biden’s execution of the CHIPS Act, and Zack warns about underinvestment in Asia.

This episode's reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/is-aukus-flawed-by-design

Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the massing of Russian troops near Ukraine’s eastern border and the Biden administration’s efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. What is Putin’s motivation for the actions of the last several months? Are the Biden team’s threats of crippling economic sanctions in the case of an invasion credible? How will the different interests of individual NATO allies affect what President Joe Biden is able to promise in upcoming discussions? Could our handling of this potential crisis make it more likely that China will try to take Taiwan? Chris has some thoughts on media coverage of Omicron, Zack wishes Donald Trump would stop praising leaders with authoritarian tendencies, and Melanie laments that the Biden administration has still not developed an economic strategy for Asia.

Links:

Josh Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, “Acting Too Aggressively on Ukraine May Endanger It—and Taiwan,” Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2021.

Kori Schake, “Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine Is Backfiring,” The Atlantic, Dec. 29, 2021.

“Purdue Sends Message to China,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17, 2021.

Yuka Hayashi, “US on Sidelines as China and Other Asia-Pacific Nations Launch Trade Pact,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2022.

Francis J. Gavin, “Is Team Biden Winning?”, Texas National Security Review, Dec. 30, 2021.

Andrew Kramer, Steven Erlanger, and David Sanger, “Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal with NATO,” New York Times, December 17, 2021.

Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, “The Myth of Russian Decline,” Foreign Affairs, Oct. 19, 2021.

Michael Crowley and Julian E. Barnes, “How Far Would Biden Go to Defend Ukraine Against Russia?”, New York Times, Nov. 25, 2021.

Sauli Niinisto, New Year’s Speech, Presidentti.fi, Jan. 1, 2022.

Michael Crowley, “Biden Stand on Ukraine is a Wider Test of US Credibility Abroad,” New York Times, Dec. 16, 2021.

Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Handssler, and Nicole Gaouette, “House Lawmakers Push Biden Administration to Do More to Deter Russian Aggression against Ukraine,” CNN, Dec. 14, 2021.

Mark Cancian, “What Would it Take to Defend Ukraine? Potentially, Billions of Dollars,” Breaking Defense, Dec. 7, 2021. 

Jennifer Millman, “NY COVID Hospitalizations Top 2021 Surge Levels; Omicron Quintuples Risk of Breakthrough Cases,” NBC New York, Jan. 3, 2022, https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-covid-hospitalizations-top-2021-surge-levels-as-omicron-drives-95-of-cases/3476250/.

“Future Foreign Policy series featuring Ambassador Robert Zoellick,” New American Engagement Initiative, Jan. 19, 2022, 12:00 p.m. ET, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-series-featuring-ambassador-robert-zoellick/.

The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire?  

Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie criticizes President Biden for pardoning his son.

This episode's reading

The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey, and Zack grieves for South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous martial law declaration.

This episode's reading

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Joe Biden administration's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. They commend the administration for issuing the document so early into its tenure, but have questions about the specifics. In particular, the document promises to execute a foreign policy for the middle class, but what this means in practice is less clear. Melanie expresses concern about the vaccine rollout in Europe, Zack congratulates the Quad for its vaccine initiative, and all agree about the need for forthright debate of foreign policy and security issues in the think tank community.

Links

• "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance," The White House, March 2021
• "Fact Sheet: The Quad Summit," The White House, March 12, 2021
• Salman Ahmed et al., "Making US Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, September 23, 2020
• Hal Brands and Zack Cooper, "US-Chinese Rivalry is a Battle Over Values," Foreign Affairs, March 16, 2021
• Dan Lamothe, “Army Reviewing Investigation Into Michael Flynn's Dealings with Russia, Foreign Firm,” Washington Post, March 12, 2021
• Thomas Escritt and Stephanie Nebehay, "Germany, Italy, France Suspend AstraZeneca Shots Amid Safety Fears, Disrupting EU Vaccinations," Reuters, March 15, 2021
• Sheena Greitins, Tweet, March 14, 2021
• Anthony Blinken, “Secretary of State Antony Blinken Speech on Foreign Policy,” Rev, March 3, 2021
• Joe Biden, “Remarks on America's Place in the World,” The White House, February 4, 2021
• "Biden must Learn the Right Lesson from Globalization," Washington Post, March 6, 2021

Melanie, Chris, and Zack wrap up 2020 by reviewing developments over the last year and debating what might happen in 2021. They disagree over the wisdom of Lloyd Austin's nomination for secretary of defense, and discuss which of Donald Trump's foreign policy decisions were the best and worst over the last year. Each also highlights their favorite books and articles, and notes profiles in both courage and cowardice. 

Links

• Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” Washington Quarterly, Winter 2020.
• Jim Golby, "Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A Recently Retired General Should Not Be Secretary of Defense," New York Times, December 7, 2020
• Kishore Mahbubani, Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, (Public Affairs, 2020)
• Ana Swanson, “With Americans Stuck at Home, Trade with China Roars Back,” New York Times, December 14, 2020
• Alex Ward, “The Single Biggest Foreign Policy Decision Joe Biden Faces,” Vox, December 14, 2020
• Joe Biden, “Why I Chose Lloyd Austin as Secretary of Defense,” The Atlantic, December 8, 2020
• Australian Government Department of Defense, "2020 Defense Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan," July 2020

Chris and Zack are joined by special guest co-host, Emily Harding of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The three review the Biden administration's latest responses to the crisis in Ukraine before turning to the issue of information security, both in the U.S. government and in the private sector. What information is, and should be, classified? And are we striking the right balance between keeping government secrets secret, and ensuring that private information about customers and users is well protected? Emily has a grievance about the apparent poisoning of Ukrainian peace negotiators and Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, and the subsequent response by U.S. officials who seemed to cast doubt on the story. For the second show in a row, Zack has a grievance toward Chris, and Chris is cold and cranky because his March Madness bracket was busted after the first weekend. Attapeople to the U.S. intelligence community for strategically releasing information that reset the terms of the debate over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Emily gives a shout-out to working mother and Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson for being an inspiration to other working moms. And Chris praises his colleagues Emma Ashford and Kelly Grieco.

For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/keeping-the-right-secrets-secret

Chris, Melanie, and Zack take a look at the Summit of the Americas, which was held in Los Angeles at the beginning of June. By all accounts, the summit was poorly organized, and attending leaders were unimpressed with the lack of consultation before the event and with the initiatives set forth by the United States during the conference. The heads-of-state of several countries, including Mexico and Guatemala, refused to attend in solidarity with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, which were not invited because the U.S. government considers them to be led by autocratic regimes. Does the planning and execution of the summit tell us anything about the Biden administration’s foreign policy more broadly? What should our policies towards Central and South American countries be? What is the connection between the administration’s domestic and foreign policies? Are President Joe Biden and his team unwilling to make hard choices in foreign policy because the decisions will be unpopular with important domestic constituencies?

Chris is appalled by the Texas GOP’s new platform, Zack is grateful that the COVID-19 vaccine for small children has finally been approved, and Melanie wishes Democrats would stop boosting “Stop the Steal” candidates across the country.

Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/is-bidens-approach-to-latin-america-a-problem

The Net Assessment crew assesses President Joe Biden’s foreign policy in his administration’s first year. There appear to have been more failures than successes, and Chris, Melanie, and Zack debated why that might be. But, as Frank Gavin explains in the lead essay at the Texas National Security Review, a bit of perspective is in order. Crafting and executing foreign policy is difficult, even for a seasoned hand like Biden. To the extent that the promise of his approach to the world hasn’t lived up to reality, how much of that can be tied to his vision (is there one?), how much to poor execution, and how much to other factors over which the president has no control?

Zack is annoyed with all the talk of a looming civil war in the United States, and Melanie gripes about the New York Times’ coverage of a transplant patient who was the recipient of a pig’s heart. Chris (with an assist from Melanie) faults newly-inaugurated Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin for wanting to make it easier to spend taxpayer money on a new stadium for the Washington Football Team. Attaboys to one of the first Tuskegee Airman, Gen. Charles McGee, who passed away at the age of 102, and to Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota for standing up to Trump.

Links: 

Quick! Get your free COVID-19 tests! https://special.usps.com/testkits 

Frank Gavin, “How Are They doing?” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 5, Iss. 1, Winter 2021/2022. 

Mike Sweeney, “NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis,” Wavell Room, Jan. 10, 2022. 

David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu, “Good Morning. We look at Omicron’s toll in New York and Seattle, two cities with timely data,” The Morning, New York Times, Jan. 11, 2022. 

Daniel W. Drezner, “The Policy Gap in the Indo-Pacific,” Washington Post, Jan. 12, 2022. 

Anjali Dayal, Alexandra Stark, and Megan A. Stewart, “Warnings of ‘Civil War’ Risk Harming Efforts Against Political Violence,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 18, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/warnings-of-civil-war-risk-harming-efforts-against-political-violence/. 

Harrison Smith, “Charles McGee, Tuskegee Airman who fought in three wars, dies at 102,” Washington Post, Jan. 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2022/01/17/charles-mcgee-tuskegee-airman-dead/.

Alex Tabarrok, Twitter, January 13, 2022.

Mary Clare Jalonik, “Rounds Dismisses Trump Criticism for Saying He Lost Election,” Associated Press, Jan. 10, 2022. 

Richard Fontaine, “Washington's Missing China Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022. 

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Frank Hoffman’s recent article in War on the Rocks about the broader implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. They discuss whether defensive systems are dominant and how long Russia will take to recapitalize its forces, as well as what this means for future conflicts and U.S. posture globally. Chris warns that the United States is not learning from past conflicts, Melanie welcomes continued support for Hong Kongers, and Zack laments Turkey’s renewed opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO.

Episode Reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/learning-lessons-from-ukraine-is-defense-dominant

Chris, Melanie, and Zack begin the show with a sober look at the events of Jan. 6, when a pro-President Donald Trump mob ransacked the Capitol and drove legislators from both chambers. In the ensuing chaos, four people lost their lives. How did this happen? And what can possibly be done to set things right? All three hosts agree that it begins with holding the enablers accountable. But, tragically, our political system today punishes those who stand on principle and facts, and rewards demagogues peddling falsehoods.

With that out of the way, the three discuss Amb. (ret.) Michael McFaul’s analysis of the Cold War’s lessons for policy toward China. In the end, McFaul urges U.S. policymakers to adopt a “complicated, nuanced path” toward China, combining “sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, [and] isolation and integration.” But can the United States actually execute such a sophisticated strategy? Or do American domestic politics drive us toward extremes and overreach? Shout outs for the Washington Football Team and a Twitter sensation who makes old pictures even more beautiful. Zack and Chris bash Trump and his Republican enablers.

Links

• Michael McFaul, “Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today,” The Washington Quarterly, December 11, 2020
• “Pentagon Insists US Military Will Only Interfere in Foreign Elections,” Duffle Blog, January 4, 2021
• Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick, “More GOP Lawmakers Enlist in Trump Effort to Undo Biden Win,” Associated Press, January 2, 2021
• Michael McFaul, "Xi Jinping is Not Stalin," Foreign Affairs, August 10, 2020
• Lauren Tarshis, I Survived the Battle of D-Day, (Scholastic, 2019)
• Marina Amaral, Tweet, January 04, 2020
• “Could China Seize and Occupy Taiwan Militarily?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 26, 2020
• Amy Gardner and Paulina Firozi, “Here’s the full transcript and audio of the call between Trump and Raffensperger,” The Washington Post, January 5, 2021
• Yuval Levin, “Failures of Leadership in a Populist Age,” National Review, January 4, 2021
• Odd Arne Westad, “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War?” Foreign Affairs, (September/October 2019)
• "Abraham Lincoln’s Address Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois," Libertarianism, January, 27, 1838

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the NATO’s new 2022 Strategic Concept, the first update since 2010. A lot has changed since then. What does the new concept get right or wrong? What missions should NATO be focused on at this time? Is the United States a sucker for continuing to carry so much of the burden of European security, or is it in our interest to do so? Can we even have an honest debate about this? Zack turns his CHIPS Act grievance into congratulations, Chris hates politicians crafting legislation merely to score points against the other side while veterans in need of care suffer, and Melanie piles another complaint on the ACLU.

For episode reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/is-natos-vision-for-its-future-right

Using Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz's Foreign Affairs article "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation" as a basis for discussion, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about President Joe Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class." Who, exactly, is in the "middle class"? Are certain positions on foreign policy pro- or anti-middle class? Is there a connection between the domestic programs the administration is pushing and a better foreign policy? Is it possible to evaluate whether our foreign policy is working for the average American? Zack gives a shoutout to people who can disagree on important issues and still be friends, Melanie wishes the people who make the rules would follow them, and Chris praises two scholars for a new report on Taiwan.

Links

• Daniel Drezner, "Real Talk about a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Washington Post, May 20, 2021
• Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2021
• Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, et al., "Making Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, 2020
• Jake Sullivan, "What Donald Trump and Dick Cheney Got Wrong about America," The Atlantic, December 13, 2018
• Antony Blinken, "A Foreign Policy for the American People," U.S. Department of State, March 3, 2021
• Kirk Siegler, "Why Support for Refugees in Higher Than You Might Think in Parts of 'Trump Country,' NPR, May 11, 2021
• Brian Slodysko, "As Pandemic Spread Pain and Panic, Congressman Chased Profit," AP, May 21, 2021
• Mackenzie Eaglen and Dov S. Zakheim, "The White House Should Show Their Cards Earlier: Reveal the Defense Budget Passback Guidance," War on the Rocks, May 21, 2021
• Dan Baer, "Tracking Biden's Progress on a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, April 6, 2021
• Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021
• Craig Hooper, “Despite Promises, USS Ford Heads to Shock Trials With 4 Broken Elevators,” Forbes, May 13, 2021

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Samuel Charap's article, "Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US-Russia Policy." Does the United States need to "gird itself for sustained competition" with Russia? What kind of leverage does the United States have in negotiating with Putin? How can the United States best work with allies who have very different interests and challenges when it comes to dealing with Russia? Chris gives a shout out to those who push this country to be better, Zack thanks the Republicans who bravely voted for a 1/6 committee, and Melanie praises some defenders of capitalism. 

Links

• Samuel Charap, “Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US Russia Policy,” War on the Rocks, May 14, 2021
• David M. Herszenhorn, "Summit Exposes Stark Clash of EU Views on Russia," Politico, June 25, 2021
• Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, "Russia Policy Puts Biden Under Pressure Across Europe," Foreign Policy, June 25, 2021
• Timothy Frye, "The Perilous Bargains that Keep Putin in Power," Foreign Affairs, April 2021
• Xi Jinping, "Speech at a Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China," CGTN, July 01, 2021
• Kristin Wilson and Clare Foran, "Only Two House Republicans Vote for the January 6 Select Committee," CNN, June 30, 2021
• A. Wess Mitchell, "Biden Is Falling Into the Same Trap With Europe as Obama," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2021
• “Slow Burn: The Road to the Iraq War,” Slate Podcast
• “Rep. Adam Kinzinger on the Moral Failture of Republicans and the Big Lie,” New York Times, July 05, 2021

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized?

Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the Biden administration’s disastrous military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Whose fault is this debacle? What is the manner of our exit doing to America’s credibility, with friends and adversaries alike, around the world? In a year, is anyone going to remember or care what has happened in the last several weeks? Have we learned any lessons from our two decades in Afghanistan, and will there be any accountability for bad decisions made along the way?

Zack pushes back on comments made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan about the withdrawal, Chris calls out the administration’s unwillingness to accept more refugees, and Melanie is grateful for those taking the lead on helping to get refugees settled into new homes.

Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s Credibility Has Been Shredded in Afghanistan,” Financial Times, August 13, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2.

Fred Kagan, “Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To,” New York Times, August 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html.

Joe Biden, “Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan, White House, August 14, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-afghanistan/.

Greg Jaffe, “From Hubris to Humiliation: America’s Warrior Class Contends with the Abject Failure of Its Afghanistan Project,” Washington Post, August 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-hubris-afghanistan-humiliation/2021/08/14/47fb025a-fc67-11eb-9c0e-97e29906a970_story.html.

Susannah George, “Afghanistan’s Military Collapse: Illicit Deals with the Taliban and Mass Desertions,” Washington Post, August 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/.

David E. Sanger and Helene Cooper, “Taliban Sweep in Afghanistan Follows Years of US Miscalculations,” New York Times, August 14, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/politics/afghanistan-biden.html. 

“An incoherent strategy doomed the 20-year US mission in Afghanistan, watchdog says as US withdraws,” CNN Politics, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/afghanistan-sigar-report/.

"Afghans have broken 'shackles of slavery', says Pak PM Imran Khan after Taliban seize power," Times of India, August 16, 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/taliban-has-broken-shackles-of-slavery-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-says/articleshow/85368058.cms.

"Last Days in Vietnam: Who Goes? And Who Gets Left Behind?," PBS.org, April 28, 2015, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/lastdays/.

Chris, Zack, and special guest host Rachel Hoff of the Ronald Reagan Institute, explore the recent article by Dani Rodrik and Stephen Walt “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World." Rodrik and Walt propose a framework — or “meta-regime” — that affirms well-established norms of international behavior (as enshrined in the U.N. Charter, for example), while also preserving space for states to act unilaterally or multilaterally, but ideally in ways that do not increase the risk of conflict. But is it even realistic to speak of a rules-based order? And should we want one? Some Americans chafe at the notion of constraints on U.S. power. And what are the actual prospects for international cooperation at all, given the increasingly competitive nature of the U.S.-China relationship?

Grievances for Joe Biden’s talk of nuclear Armageddon, and toward the Saudis for colluding with the Russians (and others) to raise gas prices – and maybe help Republicans in the mid-term elections. An atta-secretary to Lloyd Austin for his plan to remove the names of violent insurrectionists from U.S. military bases. And, in a first, Zack praises Chris Preble … for convincing the Biden administration to finally release the National Security Strategy. We’re sure that’s what did it.

This episode's reading:

www.warontherocks.com/2022/10/searching-for-the-elusive-rules-based-order

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act. 

This episode's reading.

On a somber day, Chris, Melanie, Zack, ponder the implications of the war in Ukraine. What, if any, lessons should we take away from the inability to deter Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine? With the war now raging, what measures should be employed to help the Ukrainians and complicate Russian war aims — and what should be held back? What are the escalation risks? Are broad-based economic sanctions likely to be effective, and under what circumstances might they be lifted? And what does the post-Ukraine world look like, especially in terms of Europe’s defense posture? A grievance for the second show in a row toward Vladimir Putin (obviously), and to those in the Twitterverse attempting to use the crisis as an opportunity to score ideological points. Melanie scolds those Republicans who attended a white nationalist conference and talks about what they mean for of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy. A hearty attaboy to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has shown remarkable courage and resolve under pressure, to Kenya’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Martin Kimani, for an inspiring speech criticizing Russia’s attempt to redraw borders by force, and to international sports leagues for shunning Russia.

For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-taunt-what-are-you-going-to-do-about-it

Chris, Melanie, and Zack welcome Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, to Net Assessment. They discuss what the United States has gotten right and wrong the last few decades, focusing particularly on decisions about when to use force as well as U.S. policies on Iraq, Afghanistan, China, and trade. Chris demands an expanded college football playoff, Melanie is disgusted by a congressman's animated video depicting violence against a colleague, and Zack questions the wisdom of burning jet fuel to attend COP26.

Links:

Richard Haass, "The Age of America First," Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-29/biden-trump-age-america-first.

Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, "The New Concert of Powers," Foreign Affairs, March 23, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-03-23/new-concert-powers. 

Richard Haass, "American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 2, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.

Richard Haass, "How the United States Should Use Military Force," Cosmos Journal, 1996, http://www.cosmosclub.org/journals/1996/haas.html.  

Donnie O'Sullivan, "Republican Congressman Posts Video Depicting Violence against Ocasio-Corez and Biden," CNN, Nov. 8, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html.

Jonathan Beale and Tony Smith, "HMS Queen Elizabeth: Life on Board Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier," BBC, Nov. 5, 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59170696. 

In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.

This episode's reading

Melanie and Zack are joined by the RAND Corporation’s Mike Mazarr for a discussion about Taiwan. They examine an article by Matt Turpin for the Aspen Institute and debate what is driving increased tensions, and why both the United States and China blame the other for changing the status quo. Melanie calls out onerous education requirements for daycare providers, Mike pleads for deeper discussion of first principles in national security, and Zack gives an attaboy to Bill Russell. Episode reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/is-u-s-support-to-taiwan-substantive-or-symbolic

Melanie, Chris, and Zack sit down to talk about the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which was released last week as the national security advisor was warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why did the administration push to get this report out so quickly? Is there anything new here, or does it just continue the policies of the last few administrations? Why the lack of direct focus on China, which is causing so much trouble in the region? What does “integrated deterrence,” which is the foundation of the security piece of the strategy, mean? Will crises in Ukraine and elsewhere distract the Biden national security team from accomplishing its objectives in the Indo-Pacific?

Chris has some problems with Vladmir Putin, Zack has some kind words for a departing colleague, and Melanie thanks Rep. Luria for pushing back on incomprehensible military jargon.

For this episode's reading, check out warontherocks.com

Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss the steps that European countries can and should take to prepare for possible U.S. retrenchment from the continent. Can NATO survive a second Trump administration? Or should we be equally concerned about a second Biden administration for transatlantic relations? Grievances for Justin Trudeau and Canada’s meager defense budgets, to those who kept President Biden’s health problems a secret, and to the Pentagon for acquiescing to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile's rising costs. Attas to the Secret Service agents who risked their lives to shield former President Trump, to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for his handling of the tragic death of a fellow Pennsylvanian during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and to those members of Congress starting to ask hard questions about the F-35.

This episode's reading.

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the National Defense Strategy — at least the unclassified details that are currently available. Does the professed strategy align with the budget? What, if anything, appears to be new and different in the Biden team’s approach? And what does it say that strategy documents are being rewritten but budget decisions have already been made? Chris laments student loan forgiveness. Melanie thanks some departed leaders. And Zack congratulates academics heading into government service.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?

Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service.

This episode's reading

Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense). 

This episode's reading

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Finland and Sweden’s applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Is a larger NATO necessarily a more effective alliance? And what are the practical implications of defending these two countries from an apparently revanchist Russia? What does this mean for the future of European strategic autonomy? And does this signal a hardening of the old Cold War lines of West versus East, or, in this case, all of Europe versus Russia? Atta-peoples go out to the fact checkers, Australia’s Labor Party, and Rep. Mike Gallagher for waging war on military acronyms. Gripes and grievances for baby formula shortages, the Biden administration’s stinginess toward Asian allies, and (lobbyist) Gil Garcetti.

For episode reading, go to: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/debating-sweden-and-finlands-entry-into-nato

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the United States should pursue primacy. They discuss the Donald Trump administration's "Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific," and compare some of its recommendations with Stephen Wertheim’s recent article on "Delusions of Dominance." They agree that the United States needs to have a national debate to match American resources and objectives, but disagree on how to adjust both elements. Chris both complements and questions the Joe Biden administration for actions during its first weeks in office. Melanie raises a multitude of concerns about Andrew Cuomo. And Zack supports Republicans facing political costs for votes of conscience.

Links

• Stephen Wertheim, "Delusions of Dominance," Foreign Affairs, January 25, 2021
• "House Republican Reckoning," The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2021
• Ilan Ben-Meir, "That Time Trump Spent Nearly $100,000 On an Ad Criticizing U.S. Foreign Policy in 1987," BuzzFeed News, July 10, 2015
• Daniel J. Ikenson, “Inauguration Day Feels Like Groundhog Day for Buy American,” Cato Institute, January 20, 2021
• Jonah Shepp, “America Is Complicit in Yemen Atrocities. Biden Says That Ends Now,” New York Magazine, January 22, 2021
• John Glaser, Christopher A. Preble, A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover), (Cato Institute, 2019)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko for an important article on Ukraine, to Mike Johnson for taking a principled stand on the foreign aid bill, and to the first Australian officers to participate in AUKUS nuclear submarine training.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach to addressing defense industry shortfalls.

Full episode reading.

Chris and Melanie sit down with Aaron Stein, chief content officer at War on the Rocks and co-author of a new report on Turkey’s new, more independent foreign policy. Why has Ankara changed its foreign policy course over the last few decades? What does this foreign policy mean for United States interests? How should Turkey’s NATO allies respond when it seems to act against the alliance? What might the upcoming elections mean for the Turkish-U.S. relationship? Chris is unhappy with some defenses of the Iraq invasion, Aaron praises those who worked so hard out of the spotlight to evacuate people safely from Afghanistan, and Melanie is impressed with some journalism at the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This episode's reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/turkeys-more-independent-foreign-policy

The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.

This episode's reading

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about a new article by Eric Schmidt on whether the United States can win an innovation race with China. Where is the United States ahead and where is it behind in the tech competition? How should the U.S. government work with private enterprise to maximize defense innovation and procurement? Can the United States overcome obstacles, many self-imposed, to accelerate and sharpen innovative enterprises?

Chris congratulates Dr. Elizabeth Samet for a book well done, Zack is unhappy about possible leaks of American intelligence assessments about the Ukraine war, and Melanie congratulates Congress for doing its job.

Episode Reading: 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/technology-defense-and-the-american-chinese-competition

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Madeleine Albright's recent article on “The Coming Democratic Revival” in Foreign Affairs. They discuss whether the United States is in a position to promote democracy and push back against autocracy abroad, or whether it needs to focus primarily on its own democratic institutions and processes. Melanie commends Nancy Mace for holding Steve Bannon to account. Chris calls out President Joe Biden for his recent confusing statement on Taiwan. And Zack remembers Colin Powell for a life well lived.

Links:

Madeleine K. Albright, “The Coming Democratic Revival,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/madeleine-albright-coming-democratic-revival.

“As Sudan's Government Wobbles, Coups are Making a Comeback,” The Economist, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/25/as-sudans-government-wobbles-coups-are-making-a-comeback. 

Caitlyn Byrd, “SC's Nancy Mace Joins Democrats in Vote to Hold Steven Bannon in Contempt of Congress,” Oct. 21, 2021, https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article255184472.html. 

Jack Norton, Twitter, Oct. 25, 2021, https://twitter.com/JackNorton8064/status/1452525971442044930. 

Jane Street, Twitter, Oct. 19, 2021, https://twitter.com/janestreet/status/1450608726352740355.

Joseph R. Biden Jr., “Not So Deft On Taiwan,” Washington Post, May 2, 2001, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2001/05/02/not-so-deft-on-taiwan/2adf3075-ee98-4e70-9be0-5459ce1edd5d/.

Josh Rudolph, “Regulating the Enablers,” Alliance for Securing Democracy, Sept. 2021, https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/regulating-the-enablers/.

Michael Cohen, “The Foreign Policy ‘Credibility’ Argument Is, Well, Not Credible,” The New Republic, Oct. 18, 2021, https://newrepublic.com/article/164039/foreign-policy-credibility-argument-afghanistan-withdrawal.

NAEI Annual Student Competition, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.

Pew Research Center, “Citizens in Advanced Economies Want Significant Changes to Their Political Systems,” October 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/PG_2021.10.21_Democracy_FINAL.pdf.

“SFRC Approves 33 Critical Foreign Policy Nominations,” United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Oct. 19, 2021, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/sfrc-approves-33-critical-foreign-policy-nominations-.

Steven F. Knott, American Foreign Policy to 1899: Core Documents (Ashland, OH: Ashbrook Center, 2021), https://teachingamericanhistory.org/product/american-foreign-policy-to-1899/. 

Ted Galen Carpenter, “Biden and His Foreign Policy Team At Least Need to Get on the Same Page Regarding Taiwan,” Cato at Liberty Blog, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-foreign-policy-team-least-need-get-same-page-regarding-taiwan.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be?

Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie wonders why New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is still in Congress and getting classified briefings.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate U.S. global posture. How can the National Defense Strategy bring resources and requirements into alignment? With the Defense Department having just completed its global posture review, is Bob Work right that the U.S. Navy needs to shed its attachment to presence? Is Bryan McGrath correct that the answer is more resources? Or can new approaches — like the Marine Corps’ A Concept for Stand-in Forces — square this circle? Chris and Zack hope their holiday presents will include a clear U.S. strategy on China. Melanie hopes for a nuclear power revolution. And all three wish listeners a happy holiday season.

Links:

Jim Garamone, “Biden Approves Global Posture Review Recommendations,” DOD News, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2856053/biden-approves-global-posture-review-recommendations/.

U.S. Marine Corps, “A Concept for Stand-In Forces,” December 2021, https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/142/Users/183/35/4535/211201_A%20Concept%20for%20Stand-In%20Forces.pdf?ver=MFOzu2hs_IWHZlsOAkfZsQ%3d%3d.

Robert O. Work, “A Slavish Devotion to Forward Presence Has Nearly Broken the U.S. Navy,” Proceedings, December 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/december/slavish-devotion-forward-presence-has-nearly-broken-us-navy.

Bryan McGrath, “What Is The Navy For?,” The Conservative Wahoo, Dec. 1, 2021, https://conservativewahoo.substack.com/p/what-is-the-navy-for.

Mara Karlin, The Inheritance: America’s Military After Two Decades of War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-inheritance/.

Christopher A. Preble, “The Cold War Navy in the Post War World,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 195, Aug. 2, 1993, https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa195.pdf.

“The Discreet Charm of Nuclear Power,” The Economist, Nov. 13, 2021.

CDR Salamander, “The Global Posture Review: Strategic Vapor Lock,” Substack, Nov. 30, 2021.

Jack Detsch, “‘No Decisions, No Changes’: Pentagon Fails to Stick Asia Pivot,” Foreign Policy, Nov. 29, 2021.

Dan Lamothe, “After Extraordinary Sacrifice—and Years of Delay—Alwyn Cashe Gets His Medal of Honor,” Washington Post, Dec. 15, 2021. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Ashley Tellis’s newest article, “America’s Bad Bet on India.” Tellis argues that if America thinks India will fight on its side in a conflict with China, “Washington’s expectations of India are misplaced….New Delhi will never involve itself in any U.S. confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its own security.” Should the United States expect the world’s largest democracy to come to its aid if there is a conflict with China over Taiwan? What does New Delhi want out of its relationship with Washington? Will India’s democratic backsliding affect its relationship with the United States? Chris has a shoutout for Dr. Jennifer Lind for an article well done, Zack has complaints about the overreaction to news of Cuba possibly hosting a Chinese spy base, and Melanie congratulates War on the Rocks friend Will Inboden on his new post.

Episode Reading: 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/is-washington-making-a-bad-bet-on-india

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the nature and extent of China’s engagement in the Middle East. Should the United States be concerned about China’s growing involvement in Middle Eastern affairs? If so, what can and should be done about it? Perhaps just as importantly, what should not be done? Grievances for those who dreamed up the Gaza Pier debacle, Sen. Roger Wicker for his supposed “generational” commitment to growing the Pentagon’s budget, and for Canadian parliamentarians who are just a little bit too close to nefarious foreign actors (“semi-witting” accomplices?). Attapeople to the Philippines’s President Bongbong Marcos and to the 12 jurors in Manhattan.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether there is a "Biden doctrine" and if so, what exactly it is. They identify two separate threads in Biden's thinking and that of his team — one idealist vision for global democracy, and a second more pragmatic and restrained approach. These diverging views do not, at the moment, appear to have yet been resolved. Chris also questions George W. Bush on the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11, Melanie weighs in on the Met Gala, and Zack supports expanding Selective Service registration. 

Brian O’Toole, “Biden’s Empty Posts are a National Security Problem,” Atlantic Council, August 10, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/bidens-empty-posts-are-a-national-security-problem/.

Danielle L. Lupton, "Biden Has a Narrow Window to Restore U.S. Credibility," Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/biden-has-narrow-window-restore-us-credibility.

Dominic Tierney, “In Search of the Biden Doctrine,” FPRI, November 9, 2021, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/in-search-of-the-biden-doctrine/.

Evan Montgomery, "Credibility Controversies: The Implications of Afghanistan for the Indo-Pacific," War on the Rocks, Sept. 7, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/credibility-controversies-the-implications-of-afghanistan-for-the-indo-pacific/.

Hal Brands, "The Emerging Biden Doctrine," Foreign Affairs, June 29, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-06-29/emerging-biden-doctrine.

Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, Michael D. Shear, and Michael Crowley, "In Afghan Withdrawal, a Biden Doctrine Surfaces," New York Times, Sept. 4, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/04/us/politics/biden-doctrine-afghanistan-foreign-policy.html.

Jay Hancock, “Military expected to be used sparingly,” Baltimore Sun, December 17, 2000, https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2000-12-17-0012170148-story.html.

Jada Yuan, “The Met Gala is Full of Rich People. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Wore a Dress with a Message: ‘Tax the Rich,’” Washington Post, Sept. 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/09/14/aoc-met-gala-tax-rich-dress/. 

Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/.

Joe Biden, "Why America Must Lead Again," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again.

Joshua Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, "Biden the Realist," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 9, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-09/biden-realist.

Joshua D. Kertzer, "American Credibility After Afghanistan," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-09-02/american-credibility-after-afghanistan.

New American Engagement Initiative, Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.

Peter Dombrowski and John Glaser, “A Distracted Grand Strategy,” Power Problems, Sept. 7, 2021, https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/distracted-grand-strategy.

Scott Lincicome, “US Regulators Are Failing the (Rapid) Test,” CATO, Sept. 1, 2021, https://www.cato.org/commentary/us-regulators-are-failing-rapid-test.

Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, "China's New Direction: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy," Asia Society and U.C. San Diego, September 2021, https://china.ucsd.edu/_files/2021-china-new-direction-report.pdf.

Thomas Wright, "Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win," The Atlantic, June 9, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/06/joe-biden-foreign-policy/619130/.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent article by Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Samuel Gerstle in the Texas National Security Review. Zielinski and Gerstle explain why the United States should fund the defense budget with higher taxes, not more debt, while conceding that this will be a tough sell for a country trying to maintain the status quo, as opposed to rising powers like China that are trying to upset it. Are they right? Must taxes be raised in the United States to pay for competition with China? If so, can the Biden administration and Congress craft a message that will resonate with the public? Or is there another way to produce the money that will go for long-term defense? Grievances for Jake Sullivan’s speech at the Brookings Institute, yet the latest sign of the Biden administration’s protectionist turn; NATO’s plan to expand to the Indo-Pacific; and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama) for blocking military promotions. Shoutouts to the Australian government for their new Defence Strategic Review and a remembrance of Allen Gyngell, the noted Australian security expert, who recently passed away.

Episode Reading: 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/paying-the-costs-of-competition

The Net Assessment team debates Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr's recent study on "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way" written for the Lowy Institute. Chris, Melanie, and Zack agree that the study is thought provoking and well argued, but disagree about whether it is ultimately convincing. Nonetheless, Porter and Mazarr have made a real contribution by helping to clarify the assumptions that underlie different approaches to the Taiwan. Chris gives a shout out to the Bridging the Gap effort, Melanie complains about John Cena and Bing, and Zack commends his former colleague Ari Tabatabai.

Links

• Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way," Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021
• Irene Braam and Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, "Transatlantic Trends 2021," German Marshall Fund of the United States and Bertelsmann Foundation, June 2021
• Oriana Skylar Mastro, "The Taiwan Temptation," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021
• Charles L. Glaser, "Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China," Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021
• Ariane M. Tabatabai, No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020), 
• Dustin Walker, "Congress Should Rewrite the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Budget Request," Defense News, June 2, 2021
• Joe Biden, “My Trip to Europe Is about America Rallying the World’s Democracies,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2021
• Martin Pengelly, “Biden Trumpets Democracy in Post Op-ed – As Threats Spread at Home,” The Guardian, June 6, 2021
• Bridging the Gap
• “Future Foreign Policy: Global Perceptions of the United States, Featuring Caroline Gray,” June 16, 2021, Noon EDT
• Tom Karako, “Sing, Missile Muse, of Gods and Heroes: America’s Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,” War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021
• Jill Disis, “‘F9’ Star John Cena Says He Loves China After Taiwan Remark Stokes Anger,” CNN, May 25, 2021
• Elizabeth Braw, “Spying on Allies is Normal. Also Smart,” Politico EU, June 4, 2021.
• Syaru Shirley Lin, “It’s Not Just China: Population, Power Generation, Political Polarization, and Parochialism are Also Long-Term Threats to Taiwan’s Success and Survival,” PRC Leader, June 1, 2021
• “China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk,” Economist, May 1, 2021
• Blake Herzinger, “US Ditching Taiwan Commitments is a Dead-End Idea,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2021
• Paul Mozur, “Microsoft’s Bing Briefly Blocked ‘Tank Man’ on Anniversary of Tiananmen Anniversary,” New York Times, June 5, 2021

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher’s recent article about U.S. strategy toward China. They disagree about the Biden administration’s approach and whether the United States needs a final objective. Melanie questions those expressing condolences for the “Butcher of Tehran,” Chris cautions against a major security deal with Saudi Arabia, and Zack commends Tsai Ing-wen on eight years of steady leadership on cross-Strait issues.

This episode's reading.

Special guest Chris Dougherty joins Chris and Melanie to discuss his recent War on the Rocks article, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy.” Dougherty notes that “a series of decisions (and indecisions) decades in the making have backed the Navy into a budget and force-planning corner,” and he describes the competing interests that drive different (and rarely complementary) force requirements. What decisions are most needed in order to get the Navy back on the right track? And what practical steps can be taken now and in the near future to close the gap between the many demands on the Navy, and the Navy’s capacity to meet those demands? Chris Preble is mad at people who spread malicious misinformation, Melanie laments the decline of human civilization as reflected in the Associated Press’ wrong-headed decision about the plural possessive, and Chris Dougherty gripes about people who gripe about the 2018 National Defense Strategy (but don’t know what they’re talking about). Shoutouts for the Cuban people, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Wally Funk, and Gen. David Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps.

Links

• Christopher Dougherty, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy,” War on the Rocks, June 30, 2021 
• Andrew Restuccia and Sarah E. Needleman, “Biden’s Facebook Attack Followed Months of Frustration Inside White House,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2021 
• Colleen Sinclair, “10 ways to spot online misinformation,” The Conversation, March 27, 2020 (Updated September 17, 2020)

Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss Hal Brands and Charles Edel’s article “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity.” Is it possible, and is it wise, to construct a grand strategy of democratic solidarity to counter China and Russia? How might the United States and other countries implement this strategy in practice?  Should President Joe Biden host a “summit for democracies,” or would that cause more problems than it would solve?

Melanie criticizes Biden’s infrastructure plan, Zack praises Congress for bipartisan work on the Strategic Competition Act of 2021, and Chris has some tender words for his daughter, Katelyn, as she finishes her time in high school just as she’s spent the last few years — enjoying every moment.

Links

• Hal Brands and Charles Edel, “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity,” Washington Quarterly, March 23, 2021
• Kori Schake, “The US Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies,” The Atlantic, March 28, 2021
• Brian Reidl, “Biden’s Infrastructure Proposal is a Giant Boondoggle,” The Dispatch, April 5, 2021
• Michael Wood, Tweet, April 11, 2021
• “Strategic Competition Act of 2021,”  U.S. Senate Foreign Relation Committee, April 8, 2021
• James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, "A Democracy Summit Is Not What the Doctor Ordered," Foreign Affairs, December 14, 2020
• Graham Brookie, Tweet, April 11, 2021
• “Sharp Partisan Divides in Foreign Policy Priorities,” Pew Research Center, February 23, 2021
• Christopher Preble, “Covert Wars, To What End?” War on the Rocks, August 7, 2019
• Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent, Perilous Partners: The Benefits and Pitfalls of America’s Alliances with Authoritarian Regimes (Cato Institute, 2015)

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Thomas Spoehr’s article “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the U.S. Defense Budget.” How should we assess whether the defense budget is adequate (or excessive) for its purposes? Do we ask our military to fulfill too many purposes? Will the new Congress and administration be willing to make politically unpopular cuts, even if those changes might result in long-term savings and enhanced effectiveness? If being $27 trillion in debt isn’t slowing our spending on either defense or domestic priorities, will anything? The gang has a lightning round on the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Finally, Chris praises José Andrés for stepping up to feed the hungry, Melanie is frustrated with how Democrats handled former President Donald Trump’s impeachment, and Zack has warm wishes for those entering the Joe Biden administration.

 Links

• Thomas Spoehr, “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the US Defense Budget,” War on the Rocks, January 14, 2021
• Kelsey Vlamis, "Pelosi Says Democrats Will Move to Impeach Trump This Week if Pence Doesn't Respond to Calls to Invoke the 25th Amendment," Business Insider, January 12, 2021
• Connor O’Brien, “On Defense Spending, a Democratic Brawl is Brewing,” Politico, October 28, 2020
• Janelle Griffith, “Texas School District Opens Free Grocery Store to Help Disadvantaged Students,” Today, January 4, 2021
• Sydney Freedberg, “NDAA: Conference Cuts New Army Tech, Pluses Up Old,” Breaking Defense, December 4, 2020
• “Defense Strategy: Revised Analytic Approach Needed to Support Force Structure Decision-Making,” GAO, March 14, 2019
• "America's Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-COVID-19 World," Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Ronald Reagan Institute, January 2021
• "Getting to Less - Exploring the Press for Less in America's Defense Commitments," CSIS, February 6, 2020
• Rebecca Speare-Cole, "3 or 4 Republicans Don't Think Joe Biden Won Election Legitimately: Poll," Newsweek, January 18, 2021
• “The Militarized Budget 2020,” National Priorities Project, June 22, 2020
• 'First Platoon' Examines How War On Terror Birthed Military Biometrics ID System, NPR, January 14, 2021
• “Feeding an Army in D.C.: Chef José Andrés Steps in to Help Feed Huge Influx of National Guard,” Los Angeles Times on MSN, January 17, 2021
• Donate: World Central Kitchen
• Restaurant Employee Relief Fund

On the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Midway, the crew discussed the Pacific Islands. Beijing has sought, but thus far failed, to strike a deal with 10 of the islands. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders are promising to devote more time and attention to the region. What is at stake? Can U.S. leaders deliver on their promises to the region? Chris also calls out U.S. political leaders for lack of action to protect the American people against gun violence, Melanie recognizes Queen Elizabeth for her many decades of leadership, and Zack hopes for good news on COVID-19 vaccinations for kids under five.

This episode's reading can be found here: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/musings-on-competition-in-the-pacific

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Are Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling, North Korea’s advancing capabilities, and China’s nuclear modernization program likely to spur additional nuclear proliferation? How satisfied are South Korea and Japan with current U.S. nuclear extended deterrence guarantees? And what should policymakers in Washington do in response to questions about the U.S. nuclear umbrella? In their last show of 2022, Chris says goodbye to Twitter (at least for now). Melanie asks for a more serious debate about immigration. And Zack commends the work and collegiality of the think tank community.

This episode's reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/the-risks-of-nuclear-proliferation-in-asia

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the findings of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. They agree that there is a mismatch between U.S. defense strategy and the resources required to execute it, but they disagree on whether and how to adjust the strategy or resources to align the two. Chris laments the saga of the failed Gaza pier, Melanie gives an attaboy to Tyler Cowen, and Zack commends the Ukrainian military for striking a blow against Russia.

This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Richard Fontaine's recent Foreign Affairs article on prioritizing national security threats. Why is it so hard for those in charge of the nation’s security to pick and stick to the most important national security priorities? How should the United States determine where scarce resources are allocated? If China is the nation’s main challenge, can the United States continue to expend resources at the current rate in Ukraine?

Chris is concerned about people who are hoping a new civil war starts in Afghanistan, Zack is dismayed at those insisting that the United States openly side with those in China protesting the government’s lockdown and other policies, and Melanie has an attaboy for Dr. John Hamre, recipient of the Reagan Foundation’s Peace Through Strength award.

This episode's reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/making-hard-national-security-choices

Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss Frank Hoffman’s recent War on the Rocks essay, “U.S. Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” which makes the case for adjusting U.S. strategic objectives in light of flat or declining Pentagon budgets over the next few years. While the Pentagon might intend “to implement the 2018 National Defense Strategy as if the pandemic and recession never happened,” Hoffman explains, we “should evaluate US national security strategy under much more austere defense spending scenarios.” And now we can. As it happens, War on the Rocks, in partnership with the American Enterprise Institute and Center for Strategic & International Security, has just rolled out a clever online budgeting tool that allows users to design their own defense strategies according to a wide range of criteria. Be sure to check it out.

Grievances include gun violence and big bugs (cicadas), and for Joe Biden wanting to take away drug maker patents. Shout outs to Liz Cheney, the G-7’s proper stance on Taiwan, and the World Health Organization and think-tank transparency — and a special attaboy for Producer Tre, the hardest working dude in the podcast universe.

Links

• Frank Hoffman, “US Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021
• Caroline Multerer, “#100: Create an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the Department of Homeland Security,” Atlantic Council, April 29, 2021
• Eli Clifton and Ben Freeman, “Restoring Trust in the Think Tank Sector,” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, May 10, 2021
• Defense Futures
• Matthew Lesh, "'Stakeholder Capitalism' Caused the Oxford Vaccine Debacle," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2021
• Afshin Molavi, "Globalization in a Needle," Substack, April 30, 2021
• Robert Work, "Storm Clouds Ahead: Musings about the 2022 Defense Budget," War on the Rocks, March 30, 2021
• Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger, "Redefine Readiness or Lose," War on the Rocks, March 15, 2021
• Nike Ching, "G-7 Countries Back Taiwan's Observer Status in World Health Assembly," VOA News, May 5, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack explore how the U.S. military recruits and retains top performers. In the recently released Marine Corps’ talent management report, Marine Corps Commandant David H. Berger explains that the Corps “must bring into the service the right people with the right skill sets, measure their talents, and then match their skills to the duties they desire and are suited to perform.”

But military leaders realize that the competition for talent is fierce, and they must be willing to challenge long-standing assumptions to succeed. Can they? Will the right package of incentives — combined with the desire of a small but significant number of American men and women to serve in uniform — ensure that the U.S. military will have the right people, in the right place, at the right time? Or do we need to consider moving to a different model, including possibly one based on compulsory service for all able-bodied men and women?

Older and wiser Zack Cooper has a grievance with grad student Zack Cooper, Melanie throws shade on the Biden administration’s economic policies, and Chris faults those playing politics with the lives of millions of innocent men, women, and children in Afghanistan. Shout outs to NASA astronaut-candidate Chris Williams, to Vice President Kamala Harris for wearing wired instead of Bluetooth headphones, and to the Atlantic Council’s Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper for a new report on U.S. efforts to promote democracy around the world.

Links:

Commandant of the Marine Corps Issues Talent Management 2030 Plan, November 3, 2021, https://www.marines.mil/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Display/Article/2831808/commandant-of-the-marine-corps-issues-talent-management-2030-plan/.

Gen. David H. Berger, “A Concept for Stand-In Forces,” Proceedings, November 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/november/concept-stand-forces.

Zoe Poindexter, “Amazon's consumer chief says hiring remains a "challenge" in "very tight" labor market,” CBS News, Nov. 28, 2021, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-hiring-dave-clark-labor-market-face-the-nation/?ftag=CNM-16-10abd6g.

“Support for drafting women to the military has decreased since 2016 years,” Ipsos, Aug. 2, 2021, https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/military-draft-women-support-2021.

Connor O’Brien, “Lawmakers drop proposal to add women to the draft as defense bill headaches mount,” POLITICO, Dec. 6, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829.

Christina Goldbaum, “Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation,” New York Times, Dec. 4, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/world/asia/afghanistan-starvation-crisis.html.

Laurel Miller, Twitter, https://twitter.com/LaurelMillerICG/status/1467557958494175233?s=20

Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper, “Assumption #4: The United States should prioritize the promotion of democracy around the world over other key US objectives,” Atlantic Council, Nov. 9, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/assumption-testing-series/assumption-4-the-united-states-should-prioritize-the-promotion-of-democracy-around-the-world-over-other-key-us-objectives/.

NAEI Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.

Scott Bixby and Adam Rawnsley, “Actually, Kamala is Right: Bluetooth is a Risk,” The Daily Beast, Dec. 7, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/well-actually-vice-president-kamala-harris-is-right-bluetooth-is-a-risk.

Callie Patteson, “Pete Buttigieg Slammed for Urging Electric Car Buying to Counter Gas Prices,” New York Post, Nov. 29, 2021, https://nypost.com/2021/11/29/buttigieg-slammed-for-urging-electric-car-buying-to-counter-gas-prices/.

“Biden is Hiking Lumber Tariffs at the Wrong Time,” Washington Post, Dec. 2, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/02/biden-lumber-tariff-mistake/.

Jen Spindel and Robert Ralston, “Congress Might Require Women to Register for the Draft. Where Do Republicans and Democrats Stand?”, Washington Post, Nov. 15, 2021.

Christopher Preble, “Don’t Make Everyone Register for the Draft. Just End Draft Registration for Everyone,” Washington Post, Feb. 5, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/15/congress-might-require-women-register-draft-where-do-republicans-democrats-stand/.

Congressional Executive Commission on China, “Hearing on How China Uses Economic Coercion to Silence Critics and Achieve its Political Aims Globally,” Dec. 7, 2021, https://www.cecc.gov/events/hearings/how-china-uses-economic-coercion-to-silence-critics-and-achieve-its-political-aims.

NASA Astronaut Candidate Christopher L. Williams, NASA, December 2021, https://www.nasa.gov/astronauts/biographies/christopher-l-williams/biography.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss several recent articles focused on alliance burden sharing. Should America want Europe to be dependent on it for Europe’s defense? Is the leverage the United States obtains over European allies because of their dependence worth the cost? Is it even possible for Europe to have collective defense? Should the American public accept that U.S citizens will have to defend Europe because European governments won’t defend themselves? Will the United States inevitably be drawn into intra-European fights?

Grievances toward the U.S. mission in Syria, the Biden administration’s next Summit of Democracies, and Tik Tok. Attas for Gen. Mark Milley, Israeli citizens protesting a judicial reform proposal that lacks wide popular support, and to a group of Ukrainians who have just completed training in Oklahoma on the Patriot air defense system.

Episode Reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/better-burden-sharing-with-allies

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about a new assessment of President Biden’s foreign policy two years into his administration. Using “A Better Biden Doctrine” by Stephen Wertheim and Matthew Duss as the foundation, the team looks at how well Biden has kept the foreign policy promises he made on the campaign trail, whether he has made incremental or fundamental changes, and what he might be able to accomplish in the next two years. They also consider what policies progressives might hope are given more attention the rest of this term. Chris and Zack have complaints about negligent handling of classified materials by high level officials and the excuses for it, and Melanie gives a shout out to Canada for some new defense initiatives.

Episode Reading:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/looking-back-at-president-bidens-foreign-policy

Chris, Melanie, and Zack dig into Marcus Willett’s “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack” in the latest issue of Survival. They explore the distinction between cyber espionage and cyber defense (Was it an attack? Or a hack? Does it matter?), consider the implications of the offense-defense balance (Is 100 percent defense feasible?), and review possible global norms that can be put in place to limit the harm caused by malicious cyber actors. Melanie and Chris both have grievances toward members of Congress who are reluctant to revisit old Authorizations for Use of Military Force , and Zack gripes about Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s absurd op-ed in the Washington Post. And this week’s attafolks were all in the family: Zack welcomed a new niece named Marlowe; Melanie cheered her amazing older brother, David, a renowned physician and educator at the Mayo Clinic; and Chris gives a shout out to his daughter Katelyn —- and all members of the Class of 2021.  

• Marcus Willette, “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack,” IISS, March 31, 2021  
• Trey Herr, et al “Broken Trust: Lessons from Sunburst,” Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Atlantic Council
• Stephen Miles, Twitter, June 21, 2021
• Dmitri Alperovitchand Ian Ward, "How Should the U.S. Respond to the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange Hacks?," Lawfare, March 12, 2021
• "Critical Infrastructure Sectors," S. Department of Homeland Security
• Imran Khan, "Pakistan is Ready to be a Partner for Peace in Afghanistan, but We Will Not Host US Bases," Washington Post, June 21, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack try to understand the U.S. government’s approach to global trade. Two successive presidential administrations have turned their backs on trade liberalization, and there is little enthusiasm in Congress for free trade – and a fair amount of outright hostility. For all the talk of “friendshoring” and building resilient supply chains, Washington's allies and partners seem mostly concerned about rising protectionism in the United States. If Washington is no longer leading the world on trade, who is? Or who will? Or is the United States trying to lead toward a particular type of trade, one that doesn’t benefit revisionist autocrats? And will that fly?

Grievances for Joe Biden’s granddaughter, for getting married at the White House when the APEC summit was going on, to Ukraine and its supporters for falsely claiming an errant missile that landed in Poland was a deliberate Russian attack, and to incoming House Republicans planning a series of hearings designed to score political points. Attapeople for recent authors Will Inboden for his new book on Ronald Reagan, and Arthur Ross award winners Carter Malkasian and Mary Elise Sarotte, and an Atta Vice President to Kamala Harris for her planned trip to the Philippines.

Episode Reading:

warontherocks.com/2022/11/why-the-united-states-no-longer-leads-on-free-trade

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent War on the Rocks article "Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China." Authors Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette tee up key myths surrounding China’s economic growth and foreign policy, and the success or failure of the U.S. strategy of engagement with China. The hosts scrutinize which myths are most widely believed, and which should not be guiding American policy. But they also consider which beliefs are actually true, and which are most important to current and future U.S. policy. A second “attagirl” in a row for Melanie’s niece Sophie, and an “attapeople” to those recently admitted to grad school. Zack has a grievance with the Chinese Communist Party, Melanie gripes about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s selective outrage over insults on social media, and Chris explains that a ship stuck in the Suez Canal is mostly a problem because of all the bad memes it generates.

Links

• Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette, “Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China,” War on the Rocks, March 19, 2021
• Joint Statement on the WHO-Convened Covid-19 Origins Study, U.S. State Department, March 30, 2021 
• Javier C. Hernandez, "WHO Inquiry on the Pandemic's Origin: What We Know," New York Times, March 30, 2o21
• Elizabeth Warren, Tweet, March 25, 2021
• Thomas Shugart, "Trends, Timelines, and Uncertainty: An Assessment of the State of Cross-Strait Deterrence," U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 18, 2021
• Daniel Drezner, “Searching for Signs of Intelligent Symbolism in the Suez Canal,"The Washington Post
• Richard Betts, “The Delusion of Impartial Intervention," Foreign Affairs, November 1994
• Nicholas Eberstadt, "China's Demographic Outlook to 2040 and Its Implications," American Enterprise Institute, January 2019
• Scott Kennedy, Bonnie Glaser, Jude Blanchette, and Matthew Goodman, "We Stand with MERICS," Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 26, 2021

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. They explain what has been surprising to each of them thus far in the conflict. Why has Russia struggled so mightily? Why has Ukraine fought so effectively? And why have the United States, Europe, and other democracies been so united? Most importantly, what are possible pathways to end the war? Chris commends all those helping Ukrainian refugees in these desperate times, Melanie gives attagirls to her mom and sister, and Zack has a grievance with the now-unretired Tom Brady.

For episode reading, go to:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-does-this-end

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. They discuss the argument made by Meghan O'Sullivan and Richard Haass that the Biden administration should have kept a small force in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, but question whether that would have been sufficient to accomplish U.S. objectives. Chris also issues a warning to virtue signalers, Zack calls for more virtue signaling with India, and Melanie is aggrieved by the election of Iran to the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women.

• Meghan L. O'Sullivan and Richard Haass, "It's Wrong to Pull Troops Out of Afghanistan. But We Can Minimize the Damage." Washington Post, April 16, 2021
• Richard Fontaine, "The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism," Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2021
• Eliot A. Cohen, "Exit Strategy," The Atlantic, April 13, 2021
• Afghanistan Study Group, "A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan," United States Institute of Peace, February 3, 2021
• Soner Cagaptay, "Biden Recognizing the Armenian Genocide Shows How Far Turkey and Erdogan Have Fallen," NBC News, April 24, 2021
• Stephen Wertheim, “Biden Just Made a Historic Break with the Logic of Forever War,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2021
• Oren Liebermann, Ellie Kaufman and Devan Cole, “Nearly 40% of Marines Have Declined Covid-19 Vaccine,” CNN, April 10, 2021
• Senior Fellow, New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council
• Robert Manning, “Reality Check #5: Learning to Live with a Nuclear North Korea,” New American Engagement Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, April 26, 2021
• Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan," White House, April 14, 2021
• Michael Crowley, "Biden Officials Place Hope in Taliban's Desire for Legitimacy and Money," New York Times, April 23, 2021
• "UK Parliament Declares Genocide in China's Xinjiang; Beijing Condemns Move," Reuters, April 23, 2021
• Michael Lipin, Ramin Haghjoo, "Iran's Election to UN Women's Body Draws Outrage from Rights Activists, US Silence," VOA News, April 24, 2021
• John Bew, Citizen Clem, (London: Riverrun, 2016)
• Future Foreign Policy Series: Featuring Wendy Cutler on US Trade Policy, May 17, 2021, 12:00PM, Atlantic Council (via Zoom)