Moody’s Talks – Behind the Bonds (Moody's Investors Service)

Airlines and airports are benefitting from booming demand from leisure travellers as people take to the skies for a well-deserved summer holiday. In the first segment of this episode, we look at what’s driving strong passenger traffic volumes at US and European airports and what operational challenges lie ahead. And then we explore the tailwinds keeping our outlook for the global airline industry positive for the next 12-18 months.

Guests: Earl Heffintrayer, Vice President and Joanna Fic, Senior Vice President, both from Moody’s Investors Service’s Public Project and Infrastructure Finance Group; and Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

• Airports – US: Pandemic-driven traffic gains will hold in areas with population growth and tourism
• Airports – Europe: Passenger volumes will continue to rise this summer, but regional differences persist
• Airlines – Global: Outlook still positive as passenger demand extends recovery amid capacity constraints

Big technology companies have been on a wild ride over the past few years, with the pandemic-driven boom followed by an inevitable hangover as economic uncertainty loomed. In the first segment of this episode, we examine the outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10.02 we discuss how the European Chips Act will help the region’s semiconductor manufacturers in the face of stiff competition from other parts of the world.

Guests: Raj Joshi Senior Vice President and Dirk Goedde Vice President-Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service. 

Host: Tania Hall Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

The pharmaceutical market has exploded in recent years with the rise of new drugs to help treat obesity and diabetes. The shift marks a huge opportunity for the pharmaceutical sector, which is pursuing the diabetes and obesity markets with four blockbuster drugs today: Ozempic and Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, and Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly. In the first segment Mike Levesque looks at credit implications for the pharmaceutical industry, whose weight-loss drugs will generate some $80 billion in annual sales by 2030. Then at 11:10 minutes, Linda Montag discusses how the rise of the weight-loss drug segment will affect the packaged food, restaurant and packaging sectors.

Guests: Michael Levesque, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group; Linda Montag, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group. 

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

• Cross-Sector – Global: Growth in obesity drugs will affect multiple industries but impact will take years

In this episode, we discuss our 2023 outlook for nonfinancial companies across the globe. We start with what's driving fundamental credit conditions in North America, EMEA, China, Latin America and Asia-Pacific excluding China, and how those drivers differ across the regions. Then, at 10:56 minutes, we take a deep dive into the consumer products sector and factors affecting demand next year for everything from toilet paper to tobacco, beauty to beverages.

Guests: Myriam Durand, Managing Director, and Linda Montag, Senior Vice President, both of the Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service. 

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit The Credit Cycle Turns page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Retailers in North America and Europe are looking forward to another bustling holiday shopping season—but consumers may not be as eager this year as stores have hoped amid fairly high inflation, even with a strong labor market. Will 2024 get any better for retailers and makers of apparel? Later we look at the global transport sector—where container shipping continues to struggle, even while other modes of transportation look for improved earnings in 2024.

Guests: Christina Boni, Senior Vice President; Mickey Chadha, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer; and Daniel Harlid, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, all from the Corporate Finance Group of Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related Research:

• Retail & Apparel – Global: Recovery delayed to 2024 as inflation fatigue hurts spending; outlook still stable
• Retail & Apparel – Global: Outlook is stable as profits set to recover from lower costs and inventory realignment
• Retail – US: Stronger than expected September retail sales pushes Q3 higher, but year to date spending remains muted
• Retail & Apparel – EMEA: Quarterly Update: Trading conditions remain difficult despite some retailers' positive results
• Transportation – Global: Outlook stable despite weakening business conditions for container shipping
• Shipping – Global: Tougher Panama Canal drought restrictions will have mixed credit effects for shipping
• Macroeconomics – US: US GDP revisions confirm economic resilience, but consumer spending momentum dipped in Q3

On Moody’s Talks - Behind the Bonds, hosts Tania Hall and Jeff Pruzan join analysts from Moody’s corporate finance group worldwide to discuss the market forces shaping credit across industries - from airlines to telecoms and everything in between. These forces include the uneven recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, digital transformation, cyber risk, climate-change imperatives and much more. Please join us as we connect the dots on corporate credit quality.

Our industry sector outlooks provide insight into the fundamental business and credit conditions that companies face. But what’s the picture across the 18 sector outlooks right now as macroeconomic conditions shift – which sectors are on the up and which face problems? At 10:35 we take a deep dive into an industry that is hitting the headlines: global real estate, where the sector outlook recently went negative. Financial conditions are tightening, the cost of capital is rising and property values are declining. 

Guests: Ed DeForest, Senior Vice President, and Lori Marks, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, both of the Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

If there’s one sector that affects virtually every other corporate sector you can think of, it’s energy—oil, fuel and natural gas. From food, to travel, to tech, costs and selling prices all depend in part on energy costs. And those energy costs have been through the roof in 2022, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. High energy prices are good news for credit quality in the oil and gas industry. But, as we discuss in our second segment starting at 08:05, the military conflict in Ukraine has also laid bare how much Europe depends on Russia for energy. In recent months, Russia has significantly reduced natural gas deliveries to Europe, leading already-high prices to soar and hindering Europe’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic shock.

Guests: Elena Nadtotchi, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service and Laura Perez Martinez, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit the Oil & Gas topic page and The Russia-Ukraine Crisispage on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

In this episode, we examine the effects of rising interest rates on real estate operating companies and real estate investment trusts in two major regions – Europe and Asia-Pacific. In the former, higher rates have driven a deterioration in credit quality across the sector. And we expect commercial property values to decline in the coming months. On the other hand, business conditions are generally better in Asia-Pacific and valuations have held steady. At 11:50, we check in on the state of the market there, where China’s reopening is having positive spillover effects.  

Guests: Oliver Schmitt, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer; Stephanie Lau, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Yu Sheng Tay, Analyst; all of the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service. 

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.) 

Related research: 

• Real Estate – Europe: Corporate credit quality will deteriorate with rising rates, falling property values
• REITs & REOCs – Asia-Pacific: Modest earnings growth in 2023 will keep credit quality stable
• Property – Hong Kong SAR, China: Full reopening of border is credit positive for Hong Kong property companies

We explore the impact that geopolitical tensions between the US and China are increasingly having on technology companies, particularly the vital semiconductor supply chain. Which companies are most affected and what are the implications for China’s domestic semiconductor industry? Then at 9.58, we delve into what is supporting revenue growth for global information technology services companies, as growth slows from exceptionally high levels during the pandemic. 

Guests: Zedric Cheung, Associate Analyst in the Credit Strategy and Standards Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Chenyi Lu, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer and Farah Zakir, Vice President – Senior Analyst both in the Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.  

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

Related Research:

• US-China and cross-Strait tensions will lead to lasting semiconductor supply chain shifts
• Slowing global growth, US export controls will hit revenue in coming years
• Diversified providers can weather slowing demand; generative AI is new growth lever
• Q3 update: Bookings grow but new projects will favor incumbent IT service providers

This year has been a very weak one for leveraged finance deals as aggressive global monetary tightening hit markets. In this episode we explain why we see a gradual improvement in 2024, with refinancings driving new issuance in the US and EMEA. 

Guests: Chris Padgett, Associate Managing Director of North America Leveraged Finance Research and Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President of Leveraged Finance, EMEA. 

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.) 

Related Links:

• 2024 Outlook – Growing refinancing needs, higher-quality LBOs, will drive new issuance

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put further stress on an auto supply chain already taxed by a shortage of key parts such as microchips. These supply disruptions, along with broader macroeconomic issues such as inflation, led us this month to cut our light vehicle sales growth estimates for 2022. Production bottlenecks will be largely resolved next year, but consumer demand may suffer because of inflation. A bright spot for the auto sector is the fast growth of the electrified vehicle market, especially in China and Japan. 

Guests: Matthias Heck, Gerwin Ho and Mariko Semetko, all of whom are Vice President – Senior Credit Officers in Moody’s Investors Service Corporate Finance Group. 

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit the Automotive page on Moodys.com. (Some content is available only to registered users or subscribers.)

In this episode, we look at how companies that provide leisure and hospitality services like lodging, casinos, restaurants and cruises are faring. Our research shows that despite growing economic pressures and high inflation many consumers are still eager to splash the cash on entertainment and experiences. But which sectors and regions are likely to benefit the most from this post-pandemic buzz and how long will the party last? Then, at 8:22 minutes, we delve into the world of cinema where many operators are grappling with the credit effects of debt-funded investments made before the pandemic, subsequent shifts in the entertainment landscape and rising costs.   

Guests: Michael Zuccaro, Vice President – Senior Analyst; Adam McLaren, Vice President – Senior Analyst; Fiona Knox, Vice President – Senior Analyst; all of the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service.  

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit the  Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Related content:

• Lodging, Cruises and Entertainment – Europe: Credit quality to improve, but remain below pre-pandemic on high costs, weak sentiment
• Cinema Operators – North America and Europe: Flicker of hope for silver screen recovery but credit quality to remain weak
• Gaming — US: US gaming continues to surge, but tougher times ahead
• Hospitality – Global: Outlook remains positive, but growth is slowing as recovery becomes more uneven

In this episode, we discuss China’s stabilizing property sales and improving funding conditions. Then at 9:00, we look at Chinese insurers’ and banks’ exposure to the country’s property sector.

Guests: Kelly Chen from the Corporate Finance Group of Moody’s Investors Service, and Qian Zhu and Yulia Wan from the Financial Institutions Group.  

Host and Segment Leads: Tania Hall, Livia Yap and Danielle Reed from the Research team at Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds and Focus on Finance pages on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

Related Research:

• Chinese property market weakness will persist in 2023, dragging on credit quality in multiple sectors
• FAQ about mortgage prepayment to Chinese banks
• FAQ on Chinese insurers' exposure to the property sector

Private credit lenders built stores of capital that we expect will be put to work competing with banks to fund a new wave of leveraged buyouts. In the first segment of this episode, we discuss LBO competition and the risks it poses. Later, our guest lays out the concentration of private credit among a handful of giant asset managers building their own, largely self-contained lending ecosystems.

Guests: Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director and Sandra Veseli, Managing Director, both from Moody’s Investors Service’s Corporate Finance Group; and Rory Callagy, Associate Managing Director, with Moody’s Financial Institutions Group.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Links:

• Private Credit – Global: Syndicated and private lenders will spar as LBOs revive, upping systemic risk

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.

Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

• Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges
• Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall
• Nonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

The outlooks for corporates in North America, Latin America, China, Asia-Pacific and EMEA are now all stable. We discuss the drivers shaping those outlooks and the similarities and differences across regions. Then we’re taking a deeper dive into the improving credit fundamentals for global leveraged finance next year as interest rates decline and defaults ease.

Guests: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance , Moody’s Ratings and Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related research:

• Leveraged Finance – Global: 2025 Outlook – Improving credit conditions will boost deal flow, but risks to persist
• Nonfinancial Corporates – Latin America & Caribbean: 2025 Outlook – Stable on mixed growth, but operating environment implies hazards
• Nonfinancial Corporates – EMEA: 2025 Outlook - Stable on lower rates, moderate growth, but geopolitics weigh
• Nonfinancial Corporates – Asia-Pacific ex China (APAC): 2025 Outlook – Stable on growth, easing interest rates, despite geopolitical tensions
• Nonfinancial Corporates – China: 2025 Outlook – Stable amid stronger stimulus, but geopolitical risk has climbed
• Nonfinancial Corporates – North America: 2025 Outlook - Stable as inflation wanes but stressed consumers, geopolitics add risk

In this episode, we look into the two big drivers of credit quality for companies right now: interest rates and supply chains. Around the world, central banks have been raising interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. But higher interest rates can have a big effect on companies. Our study on US companies showed that rising rates will hit lower-rated companies particularly hard. Then, at 9:04 minutes, we examine the reasons for supply chain problems that have persisted since the covid pandemic’s peak. A combination of factors is making supply chain planning even more difficult right now. Inventory management, labor shortages and extreme weather events have become critical issues. 

Guests: Jessica Gladstone, Associate Managing Director, and Mariarosa Verde, Senior Vice President, both of the Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.  

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit The Credit Cycle Turns page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

What are the big challenges facing the pharmaceutical giants? Moody’s recently changed the outlook for the pharmaceutical industry to stable from positive because we expect lower earnings growth in the next 12-18 months, excluding COVID-19-related products, than we previously forecast because exposure to generic and biosimilar drugs competition will rise in 2023. In our second segment, starting at 08:50, we look at how a number of big pharma companies face patent expiries for blockbuster drugs in the coming years. What consequences will that have for their credit quality and the prospects for M&A?

Guests: Frederic Duranson, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Levesque, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service.

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the way many of us work and live, and that has a huge effect on the real estate sector. In the first segment of this podcast, we discuss the global outlook for the real estate sector, the rising risks and the differences among regions. Then, at 9:07 minutes, we focus on the weaknesses in China’s property sector. 

Guests: Thuy Nguyen, Vice President – Senior Analyst and Franco Leung, Associate Managing Director, both of Moody’s Investors Service Corporate Finance Group.

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).

• Real Estate – Global: Stable outlook amid uncertainty on low vacancies, rent growth, adequate liquidity
• Property – China: Weak demand will drive continued sales decline in next 6-12 months
• Homebuilding – Global: ESG scores highlight differing credit impact in China and US markets
• China Property Focus: Mortgage defaults could slow property sales recovery
• Cross-Sector – China: Mortgage defaults on unfinished properties credit negative for banks and developers

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised questions about how companies’ credit quality will hold up if the conflict escalates. Some companies are set to benefit as commodity prices soar. But others are at risk from commodity price and supply-chain shocks, or financial and economic disruptions. Which companies and regions are most exposed and what do they have in common? And away from the conflict, global telecoms companies are stepping up investment in 5G – the fifth generation of network technology. It’s new, it’s a little puzzling, and it’s expensive for the companies that need to adapt to it—and for now at least it’s not clear how they’ll get a return on their investment.

Guests: Emile El Nems, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, and Carlos Winzer, Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit The Russia-Ukraine Crisis page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

US tariffs threaten a potential global trade war. Recent weeks have seen frequent shifts in US policy on tariffs as well as the announcement of counter moves from trade partners. What are the likely consequences for credit across different sectors of the US economy and more broadly across global markets?

Guest: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance, Moody's’ Ratings

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings 

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Tariffs – Global: $3 trillion of trade at risk from tariffs on closest US trading partners
• Trade – China: Electronic, machinery and equipment sectors more exposed to impact from US tariffs
• Corporates – North America: Tariffs are credit negative for a wide swath of sectors, although some would benefit 

In this episode, we dissect the drivers of global light vehicle sales, automakers’ profit margins and the sector’s rapid electrification shift. Volume improvement will be most pronounced in Western Europe this year after the biggest drop-off on the war in Ukraine and associated supply chain difficulties. Sales in China will also be solid, with the unwinding of pandemic-related restrictions providing a boost to the economy and consumers. Then at 6:45, we look into the growth prospects of electric vehicle battery makers that are powering the EV shift, as well as the risks they face from rapid expansion.

Guests: Matthias Heck and Gerwin Ho, both Vice President – Senior Credit Officers in the Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.  

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, MIS Research, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

Related Research:

• Auto outlook goes negative on weakening demand, diminishing margins
• Electrification momentum is strong, automakers must invest to remain competitive
• Strong electric vehicle demand outweights risks from raw materials, high investments 

Reduced supplies of natural gas and soaring prices stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are squeezing companies in Europe, which are also grappling with slowing economic growth, high inflation and rising interest rates. In the first segment of this podcast, we look at the effect of these stresses on European companies’ credit quality and the most vulnerable sectors. Then, at 9:35, we explain why the US will have trouble boosting its ability to export its abundant natural gas to Europe.

Guests: Ruosha Li, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Credit Strategy and Research and Elena Nadtotchi, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Corporate Finance Group, both of Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related research:

• 2023 Outlook - Negative as financial conditions tighten, inflation hits consumers
• Credit hit from Europe’s energy crisis will manifest over longer period compared to COVID 19
• Demand and policy uncertainty will temper energy industry's overall strength in 2023

Artificial Intelligence or AI is predicted to have a profound impact on many areas of business. In this episode of Behind the Bonds we assess where AI innovation is already showing significant potential. Which industries can expect to see improved productivity and what are the potential timelines for any positive impact on credit quality? We also discuss the disruptive potential of these new technologies and the risks to jobs.

Later in the episode our colleagues look in more depth at the media, where AI’s potential is presenting opportunities and generating both opposition and collaboration from content creators.

Guests: Francesco Bozzano, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Global Corporate Finance Group and Agustin Alberti, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Global Corporate Finance Group.

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related Research:

• Nonfinancial corporates – Global: Market leaders in data-rich sectors will gain most from AI advances
• Digital Transformation – Global: 2024 AI Outlook – Swift progress likely but rapid roll-out will bring risks
• Media & Publishing – Cross Region: GenAI should benefit media companies, mainly by boosting productivity

Amid increased cyberattack risk, Marie Fischer-Sabatie and Matt Cahill discuss differences in cyber risk preparedness among hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and medical device manufacturers. Then Farah Zakir does the same for business and consumer service companies, and Jonathan Reid for companies in the chemicals and other basic commodities sectors.

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• Global – Cyber Risk: Russia-Ukraine tensions increase cyber risks across regions, asset classes
• Healthcare – Global: Amid growing cyberattacks, healthcare survey shows moderate cyber strength
• Cyber Risk – Global: Banks of all sizes and credit strengths are increasing cybersecurity investment
• Services – N. America, EMEA: Cyber survey shows uneven cyber practices, despite risks
• Basic Commodities Industries – Cross Region: Companies escalate spending to combat cybersecurity incidents and hazards

Investors have long seen the vast healthcare industry as a defensive sector. In good times and bad, consumers will still need everything from pharmaceuticals to medical devices to for-profit hospitals. But how strong is the healthcare industry today? Companies in all healthcare segments are wrestling with ongoing pressure to reduce costs from governments and private insurers alike. With a wave of maturities slowly approaching, how strong is the threat of US healthcare company defaults? At  10:34 we cross the Atlantic to take a closer look at risks and opportunities this year for healthcare companies based in Europe.

Guests: Ola Hannoun-Costa, Corporate Finance Group, Associate Managing Director;  Jean-Yves Coupin, Vice President – Senior Analyst; Marie Fischer-Sabatie, Senior Vice President; and Frederic Duranson, Vice President – Senior Analyst, all of the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Tania Hall, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds page on Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related Research:

• Developments to watch in 2023: Humira biosimilar entry, obesity drugs and M&A
• Credit stress is rising, setting the stage for more downgrades and defaults
• Developments to watch in 2023: US drug pricing policy, cost inflation and M&A
• Rapid decline in COVID-19 testing, prices is credit negative for European laboratories

This month our analysts are discussing what’s driving our still positive outlook for the global aerospace and defense sector for the next 12-18 months. Defense budgets are up as a result of rising geopolitical tensions and we expect strong operating profit for these companies. But persistent supply chain issues are delaying the delivery of new planes from the largest manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, even as air travel demand soars. 

Guests: Frederic Duranson, Vice President – Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service and Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings Service.

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service. 

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Aerospace and Defense – Global: Outlook remains positive despite lingering post-pandemic problems
• Geopolitical risk – Europe: Higher defence spending will strain budgets, but is credit positive for companies
• Boeing Company (The): Acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems will be positive for Boeing’s operations over the long run
• Sovereigns – Europe: Some EU sovereigns will face accumulating debt pressures and hard policy choices
• Airbus SE: Revised 2024 earnings guidance is credit negative

Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes.

Speakers: Matthias Heck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Inna Bodeck, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jasper Cooper – VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Ted Hampton, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service

Hosts:

Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Related content on Moodys.com/autotransformation (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):

• Electrification momentum is strong, automakers must invest to stay competitive
• US auto finance captives’ evolving portfolios will carry more electric vehicles and greater risk
• Auto insurers’ costs and pricing will rise as electric vehicles grow more popular
• Electric vehicles raise carbon transition risk for states' highway revenue bonds

In 2024 we see an uneven picture for companies across the globe. For those in North America and Asia-Pacific, excluding China, the credit outlook is stable. But in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America the outlook is negative. Driving this testing global environment are higher for longer interest rates which are raising the cost of borrowing and re-financing. This is a particular challenge for speculative-grade companies. Higher rates are also weighing on consumer demand in some sectors, particularly real estate.  

Later in the episode at 11.30mins, our colleagues in Hong Kong take a closer look at prospects for companies in China, in recent decades the driver of the global economy, but facing a negative credit outlook for 2024. 

Guests: Myriam Durand, Managing Director, Global Corporate Finance Group and Gloria Tsuen, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group. 

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.   

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)  

Links: 

Global Outlook Segment

• Nonfinancial Companies – North America: 2024 Outlook - Stable on relatively robust growth, even as high rates drive risk
• Nonfinancial Companies – APAC ex China: 2024 Outlook - Stable on sustained growth in large, domestic-focused economies
• Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA: 2024 Outlook - Negative as higher rates bite and consumers remain cautious
• Nonfinancial Companies – Latin America & Caribbean: 2024 Outlook - Negative amid high rates, slow growth and subdued commodity prices

China Segment

• Nonfinancial Companies – China: 2024 Outlook - Negative amid lower growth and prolonged property downturn
• Cross Sector – China: China will be more selective in providing support to state-owned enterprise
• Cross Sector – China: Slowing growth intensifies spillover effects of long property market downturn
• Macroeconomics– China: Medium-term growth outlook will reflect effectiveness of economic rebalancing   
• Credit Conditions – China: Soft economic recovery heightens contingent liabilities from LGFV debt risks

Marina Albo of the Corporate Finance team explains that most companies’ direct exposure to Russia is low outside the energy sector, but indirect exposure – through energy and commodity costs and access – is widespread. Then Paolo Leschiutta outlines why operating profit growth is slowing for consumer products companies. 

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• Automotive – Global: Lowering global vehicle sales forecast on supply chain problems, Ukraine invasion
• Aerospace/Defense – Cross Region: Russia-Ukraine will lift defense spending but worsen cost and supply chain risks
• Oil & Gas – North America: Energy sector stands strong amid high volatility from Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Oil & Gas – Europe: Companies choose varying paths to disengage from Russia, creating varying risks
• Consumer Products – Global: Outlook turns stable as economy slows, uncertainty rises 
• Corporates – Global: Companies have limited direct exposure to Russia, indirect exposure is more significant

The leveraged finance market – leveraged loans and high-yield bonds – has expanded considerably in recent years and now represents around $4 trillion in outstanding debt worldwide. In the first segment of this podcast, we look at how the tide of liquidity that helped the market grow so much is turning now and what tighter, pricier credit means for speculative-grade companies. Then, at 8:45 minutes, we examine the role of private equity firms in this market and the risks for companies they own.

Guests: Sandra Veseli, Managing Director; Annalisa Di Chiara, Senior Vice President; Chris Padgett, Associate Managing Director; Evan Friedman, Senior Vice President/Manager, all of Moody’s Investors Service Corporate Finance Group. 

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

• Global leveraged finance – Cross Region: Evaporating issuance will erode liquidity cushions, igniting defaults
• Leveraged Finance – North America and EMEA: Private equity has more options to preserve returns, most at creditors' expense
• As global liquidity tide goes out, risks are rising for leveraged companies

Jonathan Root and Pete Trombetta discuss the recovery prospects for the airlines, cruise and lodging sectors globally in 2022 amid Omicron and other disruptions. And Sandra Beltran explains how increased travel will benefit a range of entities in Latin America and the Caribbean this year. 

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• Cruise  US: CDC cruise travel warning raises risk of protracted occupancy restrictions in 2022 
• Airlines – Cross Region: Impact of flight cancellations will be fleeting; pent-up demand remains strong 
• Emerging Markets – Latin America & Caribbean: Tourism will recover unevenly through 2024 but region offers solid business prospects 
• Passenger Airlines – Global: 2022 outlook positive as pent-up demand for leisure, business and international travel remains strong (Slides) 
• Hospitality – Global: 2022 outlook is positive as industry rebounds from very low base (Slides) 

Paloma San Valentin of the Corporates team discusses the impact of rising inflation on a wide range of global industries. Then, at 10.10 minutes,  Emile El Nems takes a closer look at how higher prices are affecting the US building sector. 

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• Nonfinancial Corporates – US Cost pressures emerge as the next challenge of the pandemic
• Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 Global economy will gain steadier footing although supply troubles, inflation pose risk 
• Macroeconomics – US Interest rates to rise faster as Omicron's impact on economy likely to be temporary
• Shipping – Global: 2022 outlook returns to stable as EBITDA peaks (Slides)
• Homebuilding – US, Building Materials – US & Europe
• Moody's 2022 price forecast for US homebuilding, building products and building materials (infographic)

M&A activity remains robust across corporate sectors, including pharmaceuticals, homebuilding, mining and telecommunications. In our opening segment, we focus in part on how the green transition is driving deals in the mining segment as companies look to control critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies. In our second segment (10:10), we delve into prospects, including M&A, for large US telecommunications and cable companies. Companies are increasingly battling for high-speed data customers, partly due to the boom in streaming video. Yet the market is saturated with little differentiating the services.

Guests: Tobias Wagner, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Emile El Nems, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on these topics, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Corporates – North America: IG companies are well-positioned for rising but less transformational M&A
• Telecommunications – US: Competition intensifies as telco, cable try to justify network costs in saturated market

In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortage and who will pay for expansion.

Guests: Matthias Heck, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group and Rene Lipsch, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com. (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.)

Related Research:

• Auto Manufacturing – Global: Vehicle volume growth to be muted after last year’s strong finish
• Automotive Manufacturing – EU & US: Charging network build-out must speed up to support EU, US automakers’ EV plans
• Automotive Manufacturing – Global: Compliance risks in emission and safety regulations are becoming more evident
• Fuel Retailers – Global: Electrification will erode market dominance, investment to curb cash flow

Ed DeForest, Richard Morawetz and Gloria Tsuen of the Corporates team discuss the stable outlooks for nonfinancial companies in the Americas, EMEA and Asia (ex Japan) in 2022, highlighting differences and risks among regions and sectors. And Christina Boni and David Beadle explain why Moody’s recently changed the outlook for both the European and US retail sectors back to stable from positive.

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• Nonfinancial Companies – North America: 2022 outlook stable but inflation and debt burdens imply risks for credit quality (Slides) 
• Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA: 2022 outlook stable as earnings recovery progresses but with mounting pressure (Slides)
• Nonfinancial Companies – Asia (ex Japan): 2022 outlook stable with solidifying economic recovery (Slides) 
• Nonfinancial Companies - Latin America: 2022 outlook stable as economic activity recovers, but tightening funding, inflation pose risks (Slides) 
• Retail & Apparel – US: Outlook shifts to stable as outsized demand eases and costs, supply chain pressures rise 
• Retail – Europe: Outlook changed to stable as inflation, supply chain woes curb recovery 

In the opening segment, we discuss how a host of factors including substantial AI investment underpin our positive outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10 minutes, we assess which types of technology companies stand to benefit from all of this AI investment more than others.

Guests: Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Vincent Gusdorf, AMD - Digital Finance and AI Analytics, Moody’s Ratings.

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related Research:

• Diversified Information Technology – Global: Outlook positive as profits strengthen in steady macroeconomic environment
• Artificial Intelligence – Global: Profits from AI remain elusive but some sectors hold more promise than others

Our new corporate finance podcast series focuses on the market forces shaping credit across industries - from airlines to pipelines and computer chips to potato chips. In the inaugural episode, Annalisa Di Chiara, Richard Etheridge and Christina Padgett discuss the current credit trends in the higher-risk segment of the corporate debt market, highlighting regional differences.  And covenant specialist Evan Friedman explains how changing market conditions contribute to weaker creditor protections. 

Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): 

• North American Bond Covenant Quality Indicator: CQI hits record worst as PE-sponsored companies rewrite playbook on covenants 
• Speculative-grade nonfinancial companies – EMEA: Credit quality rises as economies recover from COVID-19 hit, driving positive actions 
• Nonfinancial companies: Asia High-Yield Interest Chartbook – Third quarter

The outlook for the global real estate market remains negative with the bumpy economy, tight financing conditions and the surge in remote work. In the US, we expect rental income growth for offices to remain poor overall and apartment income growth to moderate this year with supply up, mostly in parts of the Sunbelt. Globally, Japan is a bright spot with supply-demand dynamics in the commercial market relatively stable. In Europe, the commercial market remains at risk of further deterioration, but the UK is likely to recover quicker as asset prices have fallen at a faster pace.

Guests: Lori Marks, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group and Ana Luz Silva, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Global Corporate Finance Group 

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (Some content available only to registered users or subscribers.):

Related Research:

• Real Estate – Global: Outlook remains negative as high funding costs persist and the economy slows
• Real Estate – US: CRE fortunes vary by lender and property type, with office facing multiple risks
• Housing and Housing Finance – US: Homeowners with low rates stay put, keeping housing in a holding pattern
• Real Estate – Europe: Credit quality still at risk despite improving sentiment; greater divergence likely
• Commercial Real Estate – UK: Recovery set for second half of 2024, but pockets of distress will persist

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.

Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service

The commodities sector isn’t looking rosy and that is largely due to the outsize influence of China, which is currently in the grip of an economic slowdown. These pressures come on top of geopolitical damage to trade and supply chains, and the energy transition which is increasing global appetite for some commodities and eroding it for others. Our analysts look in particular at the fortunes of steel and commodity chemicals – both of which are seeing plunging demand from China. 

Later in the episode (at 12.49 mins) we also look more closely at gold. Investors are riding record highs for this very particular commodity, a traditional investment ‘safe haven’ whose idiosyncratic behaviour sometimes ignores the normal rules. 

Guests: Hui Ting Sim, Associate Vice President – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Mike Zhu, Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Jamie Koutsoukis, Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit the Macro Views page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). 

Moody’s first Private Credit Outlook predicts that this market will double by 2028 to more than $3 trillion of assets under management. Private credit should benefit from more volatile market conditions and from innovation which is attracting new kinds of customer but also generating new risks.

Later in the episode, we look in depth at the surge in retail investor involvement in private credit.

Guests: Marc Pinto, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; and Alexandra Aspioti, Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Tania Hall, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Related research:

• Private Credit — Global: 2025 Outlook – Primed for growth as LBOs revive, ABF opportunities accelerate
• Financial Institutions – Europe: Revamped ELTIF legislation unlocks growth for the European private credit market
• Business Development Companies – US: Q3 2024 Update: Rate cuts will further erode net investment income; rise in nonaccruals pauses
• Financial Institutions – North America: Private credit ETFs will use public credit for liquidity, a potential performance challenge

From Tesla to Netflix, innovative technologies and market-disrupting products are still grabbing the attention of consumers and investors. In a rapidly changing market environment, we look at how to identify true disrupters at an early stage and how their credit quality evolves. We’ll also dive into industries being shaken up by disruptions: new weight loss drugs in the pharmaceutical sector and the impact of AI startup DeepSeek on Chinese technology companies.

Hosts: Jeff Pruzan, VP, Senior Research Writer - Moody’s Ratings; Livia Yap, VP, Senior Research Writer - Moody’s Ratings

Guests: Peter Abdill, MD, Corporate Finance Group - Moody’s Ratings; Shawn Xiong, VP, Senior Analyst - Moody’s Ratings

Related research:

• Top of Mind - Corporates April 2025
• Corporates – Global: ‘Disrupters’ can benefit from innovation even before their credit metrics catch up