Manifold (Steve Hsu)
Explorez tous les épisodes de Manifold
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| 06 Jun 2024 | John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61 | 01:14:00 | |
Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.
00:00 Introduction 00:36 Early Career and Influences 02:10 The Investor Choice Problem 07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges 12:43 First Steps in Finance 30:39 Lehman Brothers 37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds 44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets 01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital 01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe Bonds Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 05 May 2022 | Raghuveer Parthasarathy: The Four Physical Principles — #11 | 01:20:52 | |
Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World. Steve and Raghu discuss:
1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics 20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems 26:06 - DNA prediction 37:46 - Machine learning / causality in science 46:23 - Scaling (the fourth physical principle) 54:12 - Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes 1:05:41 - Science funding, grants, running a research lab 1:09:12 - Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system
Resources:
Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning
Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/
Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - https://eighteenthelephant.com/ Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 16 Feb 2023 | Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30 | 00:49:37 | |
Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos. 00:00 Introduction 02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination 20:52 China demographics & STEM 34:29 China IVF 40:28 Survey on embryo screening in Science References: Bing vs Bard and Hallucination https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119 China demographics and STEM https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297 https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385 China IVF https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224 Survey on embryo screening https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241 https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 27 Jun 2019 | Joe Cesario on Political Bias and Problematic Research Methods in Social Psychology – #13 | 00:58:36 | |
Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward the left politically and that this affects how courses are taught and research conducted. Steve points out the university faculty on the whole tend to be shifted left relative to the general population. Joe, Corey, and Steve discuss the current ideological situation on campus and how it can be alienating for students from conservative backgrounds.
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| 19 Sep 2019 | Ted Chiang on Free Will, Time Travel, Many Worlds, Genetic Engineering, and Hard Science Fiction – #19 | 01:17:00 | |
Steve and Corey speak with Ted Chiang about his recent story collection “Exhalation” and his inaugural essay for the New York Times series, Op-Eds from the Future. Chiang has won Nebula and Hugo awards for his widely influential science fiction writing. His short story “Story of Your Life,” was the basis of the film Arrival (2016). Their discussion explores the scientific and philosophical ideas in Ted’s work, including whether free will is possible, and implications of AI, neuroscience, and time travel. Ted explains why his skepticism about whether the US is truly a meritocracy leads him to believe that the government-funded genetic modification he envisages in his Op-Ed would not solve the problem of inequality.
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| 07 May 2020 | Robert Atkinson on US-China Competition and Industrial Policy – #45 | 01:21:03 | |
Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.
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| 24 Aug 2023 | Aella: Sex Work, Sex Research, and Data Science — #42 | 01:39:05 | |
Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist. Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello An earlier Aella interview with Reason: https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/ Steve and Aella discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 15 Aug 2024 | Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66 | 01:20:47 | |
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism. Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson "When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU 0:00 Introduction 00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction 03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences 08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics 22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges 28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society 40:49 Fertility and Demography 48:37 Life as a Polymath 59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question 01:09:29 Audience Q&A Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 10 Apr 2025 | Incels, Evo Psych, and Modern Literature with ARX-Han — #83 | 01:25:16 | |
Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. –
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| 08 Feb 2024 | Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53 | 00:53:07 | |
Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!! -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 07 Nov 2024 | Letter from Beijing, with Han Feizi — #72 | 01:02:09 | |
Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking. Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/
Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi 06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing 12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people 19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis 30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy 31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness 34:13 Globalization and its discontents 40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism 45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life 58:09 Whither China? Xi Jinping
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 03 Oct 2019 | Betsy McKay on Trends in Heart Disease and How to Avoid It – #20 | 01:07:43 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Betsy McKay, senior writer on U.S. and global public health at The Wall Street Journal, about her recent articles on heart disease. Betsy describes how background reporting led to her article linking the recent drop in life expectancy in the United States, often attributed to the opioid crisis or increases in middle age suicides due to economic despair, to the increasing prevalence of heart disease, driven by the rise in obesity. The three also discuss current public health recommendations on how to reduce heart disease risk and on the use of calcium scans to assess arterial plaque buildup. Steve describes boutique medical programs available to the super-rich that include full body scans to search for early signs of disease. Betsy elaborates on how she approached reporting on a new study linking egg consumption to higher cholesterol and increased risk of death, a result at odds with other recent findings and national recommendations that two eggs a day eggs is safe and healthy. Finally, they consider whether people are wasting money on buying fish oil supplements.
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| 22 Aug 2019 | Mark Moffett on the Life and Death of Human Societies – #17 | 00:57:08 | |
Steve and Corey talk with Mark Moffett, Photographer and Research Fellow at the Smithsonian Institute, about his new book The Human Swarm: How our Societies Arise, Thrive and Fall. They discuss Mark’s view that being able walk into a cafe filled with others and not be attacked illustrates what makes human societies distinct and so successful. Mark explains why he is far more interested in questions about when war and other events occur than with traditional issues such as the genetic origins of human behavior. The three discuss Dehumanization and its Chimp equivalent, Dechimpanizeeization, and how they lead to the division of societies, friend turning against friend, and genocide. They discuss the conditions under which foreigners are embraced and whether the US might ever enter into a post-racial society where group differences don’t matter and immigrants are more easily accepted.
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| 10 Feb 2022 | Richard Hanania: Wokeness, Public Choice Theory, & Geostrategy — #3 | 01:20:41 | |
Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago. He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy. Resources Richard Hanania on Twitter - https://twitter.com/RichardHanania CSPI - https://cspicenter.org/ Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy The Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hanania Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 01 Jul 2023 | Richard Sander (UCLA Law) on the Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling — #38 | 00:47:39 | |
Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. 0:00 Introduction 1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling 4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision 7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling 11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling 16:59 The litigation landscape 21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system 32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now? 38:02 The landscape of college admissions 44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher education
SCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action: Richard Sander’s amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1199/222805/20220509134743957_20-1199%2021-707%20Amicus%20BOM.pdf Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-unc Richard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6
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| 18 Apr 2019 | Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #8 | 01:04:17 | |
Hossenfelder is a Research Associate at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies. Her research areas include particle physics and quantum gravity. She discusses the current state of theoretical physics, and her recent book Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray.
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| 01 Aug 2024 | China Today: Myths and Realities — #65 | 01:21:47 | |
Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture. 00:00 Introduction 02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble 08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War 16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US 20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce 39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy 41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges 45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content 53:00 Freedom of expression 1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles 1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 05 Jan 2023 | Sahil Lavingia: Founding Gumroad, The Minimalist Entrepreneur, and our AI LLM future — #27 | 00:59:51 | |
Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups. Steve and Sahil discuss: 0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur References: Sahil's web page Ask My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLM
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 16 Jun 2022 | Greg Clark: Genetics and Social Mobility — #14 | 01:43:22 | |
Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University. His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility. Steve and Greg discuss: 0:00 Introduction 2:31 Background in economics and genetics 10:25 The role of genetics in determining social outcomes 16:27 Measuring social status through marriage and occupation 36:15 Assortative mating and the industrial revolution 49:38 Criticisms of empirical data, engagement on genetics and economic history 1:12:12 Heckman and Landerso study of social mobility in US vs Denmark 1:24:32 Predicting cognitive traits 1:33:26 Assortative mating and increase in population variance
For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 shows Genetics Determines most Social Outcomes Further discussion A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World The Son Also Rises
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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| 10 Oct 2024 | Samo Burja: Intellectuals, Culture. and the Technosphere — #70 | 01:37:03 | |
Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia. Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.” Steve and Samo discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 14 Jul 2022 | Tim Palmer (Oxford): Status and Future of Climate Modeling — #16 | 01:10:17 | |
Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute. He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events. He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability. After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a large part of his career, Tim has developed ensemble methods for predicting uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts. In 2020 Tim was elected to the US National Academy of Sciences. Steve, Corey Washington, and Tim first discuss his career path from physics to climate research and then explore the science of climate modeling and the main uncertainties in state-of-the-art models.
00:00 Introduction 1:48 Tim Palmer's background and transition from general relativity to climate modeling 15:13 Climate modeling uncertainty 46:41 Navier-Stokes equations in climate modeling 53:37 Where climate change is an existential risk 1:01:26 Investment in climate research Links: Tim Palmer (Oxford University) The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change (2019) ExtremeEarth Physicist Steve Koonin on climate change
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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| 10 Aug 2023 | AI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — #41 | 01:07:03 | |
Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements. Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs. Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI. 0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background 18:02 Tim's interest in the efficiency and accessibility of large language models 38:05 Inference, speed, and the potential for using consumer GPUs for running large language models 45:55 Model training and the benefits of quantization with QLoRA 57:14 The future of AI and large language models in the next 3-5 years and beyond Tim's site: https://timdettmers.com/ Tim on GitHub: https://github.com/TimDettmers Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 20 Jun 2024 | Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62 | 02:17:25 | |
Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 13 Jul 2023 | Richard Hanania & Rob Henderson: The Rise of Wokeness and the Influence of Civil Rights Law — #39 | 01:34:27 | |
Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun! They discuss: 0:00 Introduction LINKS Richard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802 Richard Hanania’s newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/ The Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: https://www.cspicenter.com/ Rob Henderson’s newsletter: https://www.robkhenderson.com/ Rob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537 UATX: https://www.uaustin.org/forbidden-courses Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 11 Jul 2019 | Stuart Firestein on Why Ignorance and Failure Lead to Scientific Progress – Episode #14 | 01:00:34 | |
Steve and Corey speak with Stuart Firestein (Professor of Neuroscience at Columbia University, specializing in the olfactory system) about his two books Ignorance: How It Drives Science and Failure: Why Science Is So Successful. Stuart explains why he thinks that it is a mistake to believe that scientists make discoveries by following the “scientific method” and what he sees as the real relationship between science and art. We discuss Stuart’s recent research showing that current models of olfactory processing are wrong, while Steve delves into the puzzling infinities in calculations that led to the development of quantum electrodynamics. Stuart also makes the case that the theory of intelligent design is more intelligent than most scientists give it credit for and that it would be wise to teach it in science classes.
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| 15 Dec 2022 | Geoffrey Miller: Evolutionary Psychology, Polyamorous Relationships, and Effective Altruism — #26 | 01:42:05 | |
Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution. For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29 Steve and Geoffrey discuss: 0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology
– Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 21 Mar 2019 | John Hawks on Human Evolution, Ancient DNA, and Big Labs Devouring Fossils – Episode #6 | 00:54:08 | |
Hawks is the Vilas-Borghesi Distinguished Achievement Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is an anthropologist and studies the bones and genes of ancient humans. He’s worked on almost every part of our evolutionary story, from the very origin of our lineage among the apes, to the last 10,000 years of our history.
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| 16 Nov 2023 | China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48 | 01:23:03 | |
TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang. 0:00 Introduction 2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles 6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market 9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market 14:41 Buying a car in China 27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries 30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China 40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving 50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving 59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid 1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 14 May 2020 | James Oakes on What’s Wrong with The 1619 Project – #46 | 01:20:50 | |
Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about “The 1619 Project” developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote. Other topics: Northern power, Industrialization, Capitalism, Lincoln, Inequality, Cotton, Labor, Civil War, Racism/Antiracism, Black Ownership.
For those interested in exploring Jefferson’s and Lincoln’s views further Professor Oakes recommends the following books:
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| 13 Mar 2025 | Misha Laskin, Reflection.ai — From Physics to SuperIntelligence | 00:53:48 | |
Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project. Steve and Misha discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 11 Jan 2024 | Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51 | 01:24:14 | |
TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology. Previous episodes with TP include:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 06 Oct 2022 | Jeffrey Sachs: Lessons from the COVID Commission, Lab Leak Questions, and Nord Stream — #21 | 00:54:33 | |
Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank. Steve and Jeffrey discuss: 0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-19 13:41 Potential for bioweapons research 19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible 32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup 43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern 48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotage Resources: The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltext Why the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The US Government Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic, Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 24 Feb 2022 | Shai Carmi: Polygenic risk scores & embryo screening — #5 | 01:15:08 | |
Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem).
Topics and links:
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 16 Jan 2025 | Jim Haslam: Covid Origins and Coronavirus Genetic Engineering — #77 | 01:55:32 | |
Relevant links:
Chapters:
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| 12 Mar 2020 | A.J. Robison on the Neural Basis of Sex Differences in Depression – #37 | 01:12:03 | |
Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.
Resources Papers
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| 29 Aug 2024 | Letter from Reykjavik: Genomics, Chess, Hyperscaling genAI, and Quantum Black Holes — #67 | 00:35:30 | |
This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik. Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides): 00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland 02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik 11:56 Hyperscaling genAI 23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling 24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI? 29:45 Quantum black holes
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 13 Apr 2023 | Katherine Dee: Culture, Identity, and Isolation in the Digital Age — #33 | 01:56:25 | |
Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian. Steve and Katherine discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:15 Katherine’s early life and background 21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels 59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights 1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter 1:33:00 TikTok 1:41:41 Adderall 1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos 1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright? References: Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 07 Mar 2019 | Kaiser Kuo of Sinica on Modern China and US-China relations – Episode #5 | 01:17:05 | |
Kaiser Kuo is a host and co-founder of Sinica, a current affairs podcast originally based in Beijing. Sinica guests include prominent journalists, academics, and policy makers who participate in uncensored discussions about Chinese political, economic, and cultural affairs.
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| 18 Jul 2024 | Ivy League Anonymous: Great Awokening and Campus Radicals — #64 | 01:11:52 | |
Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18 Chapter markers:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 12 Sep 2024 | Seeking Truth From Facts: Alf & Steve Hsu — #68 | 00:55:06 | |
This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition. Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853 Steve and Alf discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 20 Feb 2020 | Yang Wang on Science and Technology in China, Hong Kong Protests, and Coronavirus – #34 | 01:20:35 | |
Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.
Resources | |||
| 05 Dec 2024 | Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality, Geopolitics, and International Conflict — #74 | 01:37:13 | |
Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 16 May 2024 | Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60 | 01:25:44 | |
Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.
1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China 5:26 The IQ Question 13:19 Entrepreneurship and China 38:40 Selling on Amazon 48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon 50:40 The Future of Amazon 55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs 57:27 Understanding China 1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence 1:16:12 Personal and National Identities 1:18:45 Demographics: China's Future
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 26 Dec 2019 | Bruno Maçães: China, Russia and the Future of Eurasia – #26 | 01:08:00 | |
Originally from Portugal, Bruno Maçães earned a PhD in Political Science at Harvard under Harvey Mansfield, and served as Portugal’s Secretary of State for European Affairs from 2013-2015. He is regarded as a leading geopolitical thinker with deep insights concerning the future of Eurasia and relations between the West and China. He is the author of two widely acclaimed books published in 2018: The Dawn of Eurasia and Belt and Road.
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| 07 Apr 2022 | Scott Aaronson: Quantum Computing, Unsolvable Problems, & Artificial Intelligence — #9 | 01:21:11 | |
Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally.
Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/
Steve and Scott discuss:
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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| 11 May 2023 | Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35 | 01:24:36 | |
This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing Chapter markers: 0:00 Introduction 2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results 21:15 Embedding space, word vectors 31:53 Next word prediction as objective function 34:08 Attention is all you need 37:09 Transformer architecture 44:54 The geometry of thought 52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI 1:02:41 Hallucination 1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples 1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the future
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 21 May 2020 | Scott Adams on Trump, and his book Loserthink – #47 | 01:17:57 | |
Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott’s predictions, including of Trump’s 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump’s unique “skill stack”. Scott highlights Trump’s grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump’s policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.
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| 21 Nov 2024 | Letter from Shanghai: Reflections on China in 2024 — #73 | 00:59:51 | |
Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timeline during this period.
PPP and US vs PRC Real GDP https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492
PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768
Note to retards, on "Chicoms": https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645
Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371
Me and He Jiankui: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262
Dali: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195
Lijiang: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057
MAGA on the Mountain: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674
Business-class lie flat seats on HSR: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977
Kumming: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273
Shanghai: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 25 Jan 2022 | James Lee on Polygenic Prediction and Embryo Selection — #1 | 01:04:22 | |
James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex. Resources
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing. | |||
| 16 May 2019 | Ron Unz on the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, The Unz Review, and the Harvard Admissions Scandal – Episode #10 | 01:05:15 | |
Ron Unz is the publisher of the Unz Review, a controversial, but widely read, alternative media site hosting opinion outside of the mainstream, including from both the far right and the far left. Unz studied theoretical physics at Harvard, Cambridge and Stanford. He founded the software company Wall Street Analytics, acquired by Moody’s in 2006, and was behind the 1998 ballot initiative that ended bilingual education in California.
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| 25 May 2023 | David Goldman: US-China Competition, AI, Electric Vehicles, and Manufacturing — #36 | 01:16:17 | |
David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000. Steve and David discuss: 0:00 Introduction 2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia 16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis 23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy 29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power 36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market 38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China 45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind 52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition 1:04:07 Predictions for Taiwan Links: David Goldman in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldman Spengler column: https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/ You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the World https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409 Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetime https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemma/ David Goldman articles in Claremont Review: https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldman/
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 02 Jan 2025 | Joscha Bach: Consciousness and AGI — #76 | 01:21:42 | |
Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind.
Links of interest:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
– Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 11 Jun 2020 | Warren Hatch on Seeing the Future in the Era of COVID-19 – #50 | 01:16:12 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.
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| 14 Nov 2019 | Timothy Searchinger: Biofuels vs Foods and Major Climate Change Policy Errors – #23 | 01:15:39 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Tim Searchinger about the unintended consequences of biofuels policies. Searchinger argues that these policies do not consider the opportunity costs of using plants for fuel rather than food. Combined with crazy carbon accounting principles, existing rules make cutting down trees in the US, shipping them to Europe and burning them in power plants count as carbon neutral under the Kyoto protocol. The three also discuss how eating less beef in the developed world along with educating women, family planning, and reducing child mortality in the developing world can decrease stress on land use and emissions.
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| 04 Apr 2024 | Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57 | 01:02:02 | |
Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones." Links:
0:00 Introduction 00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech 07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship 10:40 Terraform Industries 15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact 24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane 31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights 35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform 41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation 44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships 45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality 55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 07 Mar 2024 | Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55 | 00:50:19 | |
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions 30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets 31:47 Dating markets 32:53 The Art of PR 38:32 Global reach and community engagement 39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions 43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 13 Feb 2020 | Elizabeth Kolbert on Climate Change: Impacts and Mitigation Technologies – #33 | 01:03:17 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change? Resources | |||
| 13 Jun 2019 | James Cham on Venture Capital, Risk Taking, and the Future Impacts of AI – Episode #12 | 01:16:05 | |
James Cham is a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a venture capital firm focused on the future of work. James invests in companies applying machine intelligence to businesses and society. Prior to Bloomberg Beta, James was a Principal at Trinity Ventures and a VP at Bessemer Venture Partners. He was educated in computer science at Harvard and at the MIT Sloan School of Business.
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| 22 Feb 2024 | Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54 | 01:07:36 | |
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief. He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture. Steve and Ray discuss: 0:00 Introduction 01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination 26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop 30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state 55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S. 01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963? Books referenced in this episode: JFK and the Unspeakable https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886 Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy https://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/ Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 02 Feb 2023 | ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29 | 00:41:40 | |
Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT. 0:00 How do LLMs work? 10:22 Impact of ChatGPT 15:21 AI landscape 24:13 Hallucination and Focus 33:09 Applications 39:29 Future Landscape References: Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI: Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind: Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 27 Apr 2023 | Simone Collins: IVF, Embryo Selection, Dating on the Spectrum, and Pronatalism — #34 | 01:30:13 | |
In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com). Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone. Steve and Simone discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening 40:02 Dating; girl autists 55:41 Finding a husband, systematized 1:09:57 Pronatalism Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. — Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 02 Jan 2020 | Andrew Hartman: The Culture Wars Then and Now – #27 | 01:21:24 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Andrew about his new introduction to his book “The War for the Soul of America.” While the left largely won the culture wars, the three wonder whether the pendulum has swung so far left that many liberals are alienated by today’s cultural norms.
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| 21 Apr 2022 | Carl Zha: Xinjiang, Ukraine, and U.S.-China relations — #10 | 02:10:03 | |
Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia. Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha. Steve and Carl discuss: 1. Carl’s background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad 2. Xinjiang (35:20) 3. Ukraine (1:03:51) 4. China-Russia relationship (1:16:01) 5. U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)
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| 28 Jul 2022 | Richard Lowery: The War for American Universities — #17 | 01:18:32 | |
Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus. Links: Richard Lowery at UT Austin: https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/ National Review coverage: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texas/ Academic Freedom in Crisis: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.html Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 17 Feb 2022 | Jon Y (Asianometry) on Semiconductor Tech and U.S.-China Competition — #4 | 01:34:22 | |
Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack. Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition.
Topics discussed:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 27 Nov 2019 | Jason Snyder on Neurogenesis – #24 | 01:10:47 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Jason about a fundamental question of neuroscience: Do humans grow new neurons as adults? The dogma that humans do not, gave way to the dogma that they do, which is now being questioned. Adult neurogenesis has been associated with learning, better cognitive function and resistance to depression. Jason suggests that a simple error of treating young mice as models for adult humans led to excessive optimism regarding the potential for later neuronal growth. Recent findings suggest that adults grow few, if any, new neurons but that what little neurogenesis occurs can probably be enhanced by exercise.
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| 27 Feb 2020 | Adam Dynes on Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes – #35 | 01:02:11 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.
Resources | |||
| 21 Feb 2019 | Ted Schultz on Ants, Emergent Behavior, and the Molecular Revolution in Systematics – Episode #4 | 00:45:09 | |
Corey and Steve speak with Ted Shultz, research Entomologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. Ted is an expert in Leaf Cutter Ant evolution and systematics. Topics discussed include evolution, systematics, the genetic basis of behavior, E. O. Wilson and small revolutions in science. Resources | |||
| 16 Apr 2020 | Jaan Tallinn: Coronavirus, Existential Risk, and AI – #42 | 01:02:53 | |
Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?
Additional Resources | |||
| 25 Jan 2024 | Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52 | 01:10:55 | |
Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history 14:21 Sean's personal journey and career 21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG 24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom 28:45 The reality of human trafficking 31:40 Technology and law enforcement 44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media 01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 05 Sep 2019 | Rebecca Campbell on Identifying Serial Perpetrators, Rape Investigations and Untested Rape Kits – #18 | 01:37:55 | |
Dr. Rebecca Campbell is a Professor of Psychology at Michigan State University, whose research focuses on violence against women and children with an emphasis on sexual assault. Steve and Corey discuss her recent National Institute of Justice-funded project to study Detroit’s untested rape kits. Dr. Campbell describes the problem of untested kits and her work with police departments around the country to reduce the backlog. She explains how the use of the national CODIS database has led to sharply higher estimates of the proportion of rapes committed by serial perpetrators and how many rapists appear to be criminal “generalists”, committing a wide range of offenses. She describes the dynamics of sexual assault investigations, the factors that lead police to put more effort into investigating certain cases over others, and how common ways of questioning women can lead them to disengage from the process. Other topics include the incentives at work in law enforcement, the slow pace at which new research in DNA testing and treatment of victims is incorporated into police training, and Dr. Campbell’s efforts to engage with law enforcement agencies to improve investigative practices.
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| 23 Apr 2020 | Vineer Bhansali: Physics, Tail Risk Hedging, and 900% Coronavirus Returns – #43 | 01:21:48 | |
Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.
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| 06 Feb 2020 | Meghan Daum on the New Culture Wars – #32 | 01:14:08 | |
Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book “The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars”. Meghan describes how she became aware of the “Red Pill” through what she calls “free speech YouTube” videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z’s focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.
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| 24 Mar 2022 | Sebastian Mallaby: Venture capital as an engine of courage — #8 | 01:16:11 | |
Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation. Biography: The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future -- Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 19 Dec 2024 | Adventures in Physics, Trump, and more, with the Information Theory podcast — #75 | 01:19:03 | |
This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 01 Dec 2022 | Anna Krylov: The Politicization of Science in Academia — #25 | 01:00:19 | |
Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry. Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters. Steve and Anna discuss: 0:00 Anna Krylov’s background, upbringing in USSR 7:03 Ideological control and censorship for the greater good? 14:59 How ideology underpins DEI work in academic institutions 30:40 Captured institutions 37:05 How much is UC Berkeley spending on DEI, and where the money is going 41:46 Krylov thinks it can get worse 52:09 An idea for soliciting anonymous feedback at universities Resources: Professor Krylov academic page: https://dornsife.usc.edu/chemistry/krylov/ Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Krylov The Peril of Politicizing Science, Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters 2021 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpclett.1c01475 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 02 Nov 2023 | Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #47 | 01:30:02 | |
Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan. Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 27 Mar 2025 | Callum Williams: Economics, AI, and Technological Progress — #82 | 01:46:14 | |
Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 12 Dec 2019 | Ted Conover on Immigration, Prisons and 21st Century Homesteading – #25 | 01:19:38 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Ted about his article for the August issue of Harper’s Magazine, “The Last Frontier”. Ted describes how Trump’s election led him to seek out his new project on people living off the grid in Colorado’s San Luis Valley (“Appalachia without the Trees”). The three discuss how immigration has changed since he wrote Coyotes in 1987. Ted explains how working as a prison guard in Sing Sing led to the uncomfortable realization that he was getting comfortable with unnecessary violence and offers advice to young people seeking to write interesting stories in the new media landscape.
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| 31 Jan 2019 | Bobby Kasthuri & Brain Mapping - Episode #2 | 01:15:13 | |
Corey and Steve are joined by Bobby Kausthuri, a Neuroscientist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago. Bobby specializes in nanoscale mapping of brains using automated fine slicing followed by electron microscopy. Among the topics covered: Brain mapping, the nature of scientific progress (philosophy of science), Biology vs Physics, Is the brain too complex to be understood by our brains? AlphaGo, the Turing Test, and wiring diagrams, Are scientists underpaid? The future of Neuroscience. ▶️ WATCH: Bobby Kausthuri & Brain Mapping — Episode #2
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| 03 Nov 2022 | Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC | 00:59:21 | |
Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.
Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.
4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments 16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions 29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students 34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action 40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases 44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic 50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person 52:12 Mismatch theory 56:31 The future of higher education
Resources
Background on the Harvard case: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html
Transcripts: https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/20-1199_6537.pdf https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/21-707_m64n.pdf Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 30 Apr 2020 | Raman Sundrum: Physics and the Universe – #44 | 01:19:01 | |
Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination. Resources | |||
| 31 Oct 2019 | Jamie Metzl on Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity – #22 | 01:13:57 | |
Jamie Metzl joins Corey and Steve to discuss his new book, Hacking Darwin. They discuss detailed predictions for the progress in genomic technology, particularly in human reproduction, over the coming decade: genetic screening of embryos will become commonplace, gene-editing may become practical and more widely accepted, stem cell technology may allow creation of unlimited numbers of eggs and embryos. Metzl is a Technology Futurist, Geopolitics Expert, and Sci-Fi Novelist. He was appointed to the World Health Organization expert advisory committee governance and oversight of human genome editing. Jamie previously served in the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a Human Rights Officer for the United Nations in Cambodia. He holds a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian history from Oxford University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.
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| 19 Jan 2023 | Dominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — #28 | 02:07:14 | |
Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode. Steve and Dominic discuss: 0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics 16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro 19:41 How Dominic and Steve became acquainted: blogs, 2008 financial crisis, meeting at Google 27:37 Vote Leave, the science of polling 43:46 Cambridge Analytica conspiracy; History is impossible 48:41 Dominic on Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of him and the movie “Brexit: The Uncivil War” 54:05 On joining British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office: an ultimatum 1:06:31 The pandemic 1:21:28 The Deep State, talent pipeline for public service 1:47:25 Quants and weirdos invade No.10 1:52:06 Can the Tories win the next election? 1:56:27 Trump in 2024? References: Dominic's Substack newsletter: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 02 May 2019 | Philosopher Sam Kerstein on the Morality of Genome Engineering, Inequality, and Star Trek – Episode #9 | 01:10:53 | |
Corey and Steve speak with Samuel Kerstein, Professor of Philosophy and expert in Medical Ethics at the University of Maryland. They discuss the ethics of genome engineering and preimplantation embryo selection, and the inequality and narrowing of human diversity that might result from widespread adoption of these technologies. Among the topics covered: Why genome engineering at this time is immoral. Should we always pick the healthiest embryo? In the future will parents have a moral obligation to engineer their children? Will there be an arms race between countries to engineer their populations? Is Star Trek’s Khan a more advanced person (Steve) or just another smart psychopath (Sam) or both?
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| 30 May 2019 | Joe Cesario on Police Decision Making and Racial Bias in Deadly Force Decisions – Episode #11 | 01:18:38 | |
Corey and Steve talk with Joe Cesario about his recent work showing that, contrary to many activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings. Joe discusses his analysis of national criminal justice data and his experimental studies with police officers in a specially designed realistic simulator. He maintains that evidence suggests that racial bias does exist in other uses force of force such as tasering but that the decision to shoot is fundamentally different and driven by facts about criminal context in which officers find themselves rather than race.
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| 02 Jun 2022 | John Mearsheimer: Great Powers, U.S. Hegemony, and the Rise of China — #13 | 01:00:56 | |
This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine. John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States. Steve, Corey, and John discuss: 0:00 A quick message for listeners 1:21 Introduction 2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview 15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S. 21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky 29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies? 36:44 Will Europe become more united? 41:23 China’s ambitions 46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends 47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War? 51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competition Resources: John Mearsheimer - https://www.mearsheimer.com/ The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - https://www.amazon.com/Great-Delusion-Liberal-International-Realities-ebook/dp/B07H3XRPQS Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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| 27 Feb 2025 | Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen, Part 2 | 01:25:38 | |
Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation.
Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47
Steve and Taylor discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
– Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 25 Aug 2022 | Harvard Veritas: interview with a recent graduate (anonymous) — #18 | 01:37:36 | |
The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly. Steve and his guest discuss: 0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard 21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard 29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities 46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard 50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities 58:46 Competing with off-scale students 1:00:48 Ideological climate on campus, wokeism, and controversial public speakers 1:23:11 Dating at Harvard 1:26:52 Z-scores and other metrics to add to the admissions process
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/09/what-is-best-for-harvard.html
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/09/former-yale-law-dean-on-harvard-anti.html https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/06/harvard-office-of-institutional_21.html Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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| 17 Nov 2022 | Abdel Abdellaoui: Genetics, Psychiatric Traits, and Educational Attainment — #24 | 01:04:39 | |
Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam. Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures. Steve and Abdel discuss: 00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career Resources: Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=en
– Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 08 Jun 2023 | AI Cambrian Explosion: Conversation With Three AI Engineers — #37 | 01:04:55 | |
In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI. 0:00 Introduction 1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone? 30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans? 34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside 41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs. Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35 Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30 ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-ai
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 14 Dec 2023 | Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #50 | 01:27:12 | |
Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. Steve and Louis discuss:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. -- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve. | |||
| 07 Sep 2023 | Meritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #43 | 01:01:59 | |
Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies. Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing CLA and College Learning outcomes: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.html Harvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduate https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.html Defining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html Chapter markers: 0:00 Introduction 1:28 University of California system report and the use of SAT scores admissions 8:04 Longitudinal study on gifted students and SAT scores (SMPY) 12:53 Unprecedented data on earnings outcomes and SAT scores 15:43 How SAT scores and university pedigree influence opportunities at elite firms 17:35 Non-academic factors fail to predict student success 20:49 Predicted earnings 24:24 Measured benefit of Ivy Plus attendance 28:25 CLA: 13 university study on college learning outcomes 32:34 Does college education improve generalist skills and critical thinking? 42:15 The composition of elite universities: 4 paths to admission 48:12 What happened to meritocracy? 51:48 Hard versus Soft career tracks 54:43 Cognitive elite at Ivies vs state flagship universities 57:11 What happened to Caltech?
-- Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. | |||
| 04 Jun 2020 | Leif Wenar on the Resource Curse and Impact Philosophy – #49 | 01:29:35 | |
Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar’s thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve’s). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.
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| 26 Mar 2020 | COVID-19, Blockchain, and the Global Startup Scene – #39 | 01:38:33 | |
Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.
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| 24 Jan 2019 | CRISPR Babies — Episode #1 | 00:22:34 | |
Corey and Steve discuss news of gene edited babies in China, and the future of human genetic engineering. ▶️ Watch: CRISPR Babies — Episode #1
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| 19 Mar 2020 | Claude Steele on the Challenges of Multi-Cultural Societies – #38 | 01:18:03 | |
Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.
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| 09 Jan 2020 | Zach Hambrick on Psychometrics and the Science of Expertise – #28 | 01:08:35 | |
MSU Psychology Professor Zach Hambrick joins Corey and Steve to discuss general cognitive ability, the science of personnel selection, and research on the development of skills and expertise. Is IQ really the single best predictor of job performance? Corey questions whether g is the best predictor across all fields and whether its utility declines at a certain skill level. What does the experience of the US military tell us about talent selection? Is the 10,000 hour rule for skill development valid? What happened to the guy who tried to make himself into a professional golfer through 10,000 hours of golf practice?
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| 20 Oct 2022 | Discovering the Multiverse: Quantum Mechanics and Hugh Everett III, with Peter Byrne — #22 | 00:58:06 | |
Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine. Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists. Steve and Peter discuss: 0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett 18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book 24:00 Everett and Decoherence 31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory 40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory 43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy 49:21 Everett’s post-academic life 52:58 How Hugh Everett is remembered now
References:
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure. – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. | |||
| 16 Jan 2020 | Sebastian Junger: Meaning from War and Technological Isolation in America – #29 | 00:44:24 | |
This conversation occurred just after President Trump withdrew US forces from Northern Syria. Steve, Corey and Sebastian debate ISIS and the Kurds. Sebastian argues that men who went to war after 9/11 wanted to experience communal masculinity, as their fathers and grandfathers had in Vietnam and WWII, a tradition dating back millennia. When they came home, they faced the isolation of affluent contemporary American society, leading to high rates of addiction, depression, and suicide. War veterans in less developed countries may be psychologically better off, supported by a more traditional social fabric.
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