Longriver Podcast (Graham Rhodes)

My first guest is my friend Stephen Wong, Portfolio Manager at BPI International Finance Limited in Hong Kong.  Join me for a conversation on Stephen's investment journey; how he uses the Total Shareholder Return equation as a framework for assessing investment opportunities; and his thoughts on Oriental Watch and Hong Kong Technology Ventures (HKTV).

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and James Hull, co-Founders of the Caledon Energy Transition Fund, about their backgrounds, their partnership and their investment strategy.

We used Vertiv Holdings as a case study, touching on its history and development into one of the world’s leading power and thermal management suppliers to the data centre; its Chairman and his track record at Honeywell; its sales composition; and its role as a key supplier to the ongoing AI capex boom.

Finally, we discussed how Brian and James approach valuing cyclical stocks; how they overcome anchoring bias; and what could kill the boom.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Dr. Daan Steenkamp, CEO of startup Codera Analytics and formerly Lead Economist and Head of the Research Unit at the South African Reserve Bank.  We tackle two big topics: 1) the difference between demand- and supply-side shocks to the economy; why central banks were slow to recognise inflation; and what it may take to re-anchor inflation expectations; and 2) how Codera is applying automation and machine learning tools from software development to economic forecasting; the difference between traditional economic models and machine learning models; and the importance of narrative in economic forecasting.  You can follow Daan @daan_steenkamp or via the Codera blog.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Richard Lawrence, Executive Chairman of Overlook Investments Limited, an independent fund management company he founded in 1991 to invest in public equity markets throughout Asia, excluding Japan. In this conversation, we discuss Richard's new book, "The Model", which explores two important questions: how did Overlook achieve its success; and how can Overlook best ensure future success? "The Model" is available today from Harriman House publishing in both hard and soft copy.  It will also be available soon on Amazon.  All proceeds from the sale of the book will go to support Proyecto Mirador, a non-profit that builds fuel-efficient cookstoves in rural communities across Central America.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Gokce Bulut, lead Portfolio Manager for LGM Investments' Responsible Global Emerging Markets and Responsible Asia strategies.  Gokce is a former colleague and I really admire him for how he's always trying to play the game better.  In this conversation, we cover how Gokce has learned to manage volatility; the attraction of emerging markets; how he defines 'quality'; and why he's committed to responsible investing.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Ethan Robertson, host of Wheelsboy, the leading English-language automotive reviewer in China, about China's Cambrian Explosion of New Energy Vehicle manufacturers, their intense competition for relevance, and how they stack up against Western and Japanese firms, including Tesla.

Wheelsboy produces the best car reviews I’ve ever watched and if you like this interview, you must check out their YouTube channel. Their most popular video is a review of the Hongqi H9, The Chinese S-Class that looks like a Rolls-Royce and Drives like a…

Some of my favourite videos are:

Hengchi 5: How $300 Billion In Debt And The World's Top Auto Designers Created A Mediocre Car

The World's Cheapest EV Convertible Is Delightfully Awful (Wuling MINI EV Cabrio)

Gaze Upon The Face Of The Trumpchi M8 And Tremble!

MG Cyberster: MG Is Back, Baby!

New School vs Old School- Li Auto L9 vs BMW X7

My guest is Wayne Jones, co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of the Ganes Focused Value Fund, a Brisbane, Australia, based investment manager. In this conversation, we cover how Wayne has built his eclectic circle of competence over time; and then dive into the challenges facing Domino's Pizza Enterprises, one of his long-term holdings.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Will Thrower, founder of Dumile Capital. In this conversation, we cover what Will is building at Dumile; how his experience with AMD took him from deep value to growth; and his thoughts on valuing Tesla, the second of two investments currently in his portfolio.   

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Aileen Chang, a fellow member of ValueAsia and Founder & CIO of Tashi Capital, a Hong Kong-based investment manager which specialises in China and South Korea.  Tashi is driven by deep, proprietary research and manages a highly concentrated portfolio with an investment horizon of over 5 years. In this conversation, we cover Aileen's early experiences as a hedge fund analyst; how she came to specialise in China; what she is building with Tashi; and what the twin concepts of margin of safety and certainty mean to her. 

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

Will Thrower is back for a second interview.  We cover how his research into Tesla took him to China's renewable energy industry; how China has emerged as the critical link in the world's transition to renewable energy; and how Longi Green Energy Technology epitomises the strength of vertically integrated business models.  If you like what you hear, you can read Will's new substack 'The Money Corner' and follow him on Twitter @willthrower3. You can also visit my site at www.longriverinv.com.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I read my 1H21 investment letter, which explores the theme of exponential change.

If you like what you heard please visit the blog at www.longriverinv.com!

This time it's my turn in the hot seat!  My wife Lizzie suggested she interview me for some early thoughts on Longriver, and to let me introduce myself and what I'm building. We cover what you'll find on my CV and what you won't; how I came to investing; my strategy, 'Global Value Investing, from Asia'; as well as some of the early design choices I've made building a business and an investment process. 

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is my friend Simon Fu from Shanghai.  Simon is an entrepreneur now and runs three restaurants but prior to that, he spent seven years working in the head office of one of China's largest banks.  Join me for a conversation on Simon's investment journey; why he thinks China's banking system is misunderstood; and why he likes Postal Savings Bank.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Michael McGaughy, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Research Alpha, a specialist fund which invests in the equity of unloved and out-of-favor quality companies in some of the world’s least expensive stock markets, like Uzbekistan, Argentina and Nigeria. In this conversation, we cover how Michael finds safety investing in financial crises; how his experience researching family-controlled conglomerates in Asia in the early 1990s helped him see patterns when he began looking at other markets like Greece; how he became interested in Uzbekistan and his investment in the Uzbek Commodity Exchange; and his views on investing today in Russia and Ukraine. If you like what you hear, you can read Michael's blog here and follow him on Twitter @MichaelMcGaughy. You can also visit my site at www.longriverinv.com.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guests today are Ross Cameron and Cameron Robson of Northcape Capital's Global Emerging Markets team. In this conversation, we cover the investing case for emerging markets; Northcape's unique corporate and portfolio management structures; Northcape's bespoke country discount rates; and then bring it all together with a case study of Techtronic Industries. 

If you like what you hear, please visit the blog at www.longriverinv.com.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest today is Federico Dirube, a fellow member of ValueAsia and Managing Director of Supreme Entertainment, Hong Kong's largest importer, distributor and retailer of leisure time concession equipment and supplies. In this conversation, we cover Federico's journey as an entrepreneur; choosing survival over optionality; how he got into the popcorn business; and the role of a distributor today.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Rob Sheridan, Founder of Uluwatu Limited, a Hong Kong based investment manager about how he's using his experience working at Global Endowment Management and Ward Ferry to identify the companies which will matter the most in Asia over the coming decades. We talked about Rob's career and road to Hong Kong; how he developed his investment process; the importance in long term investing of underwriting good management teams; portfolio construction; and how he keeps himself honest in the short term. We tied everything together at the end with a case study of freee kk, a Japanese ERP software provider.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Eric Markowitz, Partner and Director of Research at Nightview Capital, about an essay he published this year titled, “How a brush with death shaped my long game” (link). We dive straight into the details of a health crisis which shook Eric’s world in early 2023 (link) and then have an open-ended conversation about what he’s taken from it as a husband, father, friend and investor.

I highly recommend you read Eric's essay before you listen to (or read) our conversation. The context will help and you will get to enjoy Eric’s wonderful skill as a writer. If you want more, you can follow Eric on X (@EricMarkowitz) or at Big Think (link).

My guest today is my friend Magnus Andersson from Sweden.  After a career in business, Magnus resigned five years ago to focus full-time on his investments.  In this conversation, we cover his early interest in investing; his insights into the economics of digital businesses; and his research into "the soul of a company", as illustrated by Swedish B2B gambling services provider Evolution.  We also touch on Magnus' investment in Herno Gin.

Check out Magnus' extensive library of blog posts too:

• How I found Swedbank (Part 1 and Part 2)
• To live on capital in Sweden (here)
• Apple does it again (here)
• 100% Gross Margins (here)
• A Trip to Herno Gin (here)

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Jesus Rodriguez, author of the Dungeon Investing substack, where he writes about miniatures, video games, tabletop games, comics, RPGs and investing.

In this conversation, we discuss Games Workshop, owner, designer and manufacturer of the Warhammer and Warhammer 40K range of miniatures. Jesús walks us through the company's rise-fall-and-rebirth to explain how its history shaped its culture. We then explore the trade-offs inherent in GW's hype-driven business model; the operational complexity and diseconomies of scale this creates; management's slow embrace of IP content; and the company's potential for growth.

If you'd like to read more of Jesús' work, I highly recommend starting here:

Analysis of Games Workshop (2017)

Games Workshop: A look into the future (2023)

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My ValueAsia friend Keith Foley interviews me on my 1H21 Investment Letter.  I introduce my investment journey and investment philosophy, before we discuss the letter's theme of exponential change.  We then dive into my thesis for Amazon, and touch briefly too on Alibaba and Evolution.

If you like what you heard please visit the blog at www.longriverinv.com!

Here's how it went:

1m34s - Investment Journey & Investment Philosophy

6m33s - The Longriver Blog

7m07 - Identifying exceptional companies

9m10s - Founders vs. Professional Managers

11m00s - Thinking about Exponential Change

15m01s - The case for Amazon

18m08s - Amazon's growth opportunities

22m33s - Big Tech & Regulation

24m43s - eCommerce vs. Omni-channel

27m10s - Bezos & Jassy Transition

31m10s - Selling out of Alibaba

36m57s - Introducing Evolution

42m02s - Evolution & Regulation

44m23s - Goodbyes!

My guest today is Tee Leng Goh from Singapore, Director of the Tat Hwa Group, his family's holding company, and Founder & Portfolio Manager at Heritage Global Capital.  In this conversation, we cover Tat Hwa's history and how it has repeatedly re-invented itself in the face of a changing world, most recently by making the leap into the digital economy.  

You might like these links too:

• Tee Leng's blog, "Investing Nook" (link)
• "Is Value Investing Dead?" (video starts at 59m55s) (link)
• "Heritage Global Capital's Goh ditches deep value investing to embrace new tech trends" (link) (paywall)
• A history of NatSteel (link)

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Shreekkanth Viswanathan ("Shree"), Founder and Portfolio Manager of SVN Capital, a Chicago, USA-based investment manager. In this conversation, we briefly cover Shree's background, how spirituality helps him keep his ego in check and the importance of serendipity, before diving into a discussion of Kinsale Capital, one of his portfolio holdings.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Daye Deng (邓达业), author of the East Asia Stock Insights substack, about the Chinese sportswear industry and two of its leading players, Anta and Li Ning.

We began with Daye's background as a Chinese person growing up in Japan and then Canada; his career as a buyside investor; and why he's now devoting his time to companies in East Asia.

We then discussed the trends driving Chinese consumers' interest in sportswear; what makes sportswear companies good businesses; the rise and travails of China's homegrown sportswear companies; Li Ning and Anta's origin stories; Anta's success with a multi-brand strategy; the two companies distinct cultures; their corporate governance issues; the persistence of fierce inventory cycles in the Chinese market; and Anta's investment in Amer Sports, a holding company which owns Arc'teryx, Salomon, Wilson and other brands.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

Following the publication of the sixth edition of Pillar Legal's primer on the regulation of China's gaming industry, I spoke with Charles Yu (俞超), a partner at the firm and head of its Shanghai office.  Our conversation put 2021's regulatory campaign into the broader context of the Chinese government's struggle to combat gaming addiction; the "murky" process for new games to be licensed; the challenges of maintaining digital privacy; how the policy has turned to be supportive again; and how Chinese firms have responded by setting their sights on overseas markets.  

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Ali Gündüz, a private investor from Berlin who closely follows Evolution AB, the Swedish B2B gambling services company. In this conversation, we discuss what we perceive as Evolution's key issues, including increasing competition; its dependence on Asian markets to sustain its growth; the slow roll-out of game shows in the US; its difficulties in RNG; and its need for a more consistent capital allocation policy.

You can find Ali on Twitter at @gnufs. He also shares his analysis publicly at www.dontdistribute.com, including quarterly updates on Evolution.

Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.