Global Macro Update (Mauldin Economics)

When Felix Zulauf has a hunch, he’s usually right. Ed D’Agostino interviews Zulauf, the former head of UBS’s institutional portfolio management group and founder of Zulauf Consulting, about the end of the multipolar world and where the markets are headed.

The FTX scandal—“crypto’s Enron,” as this week’s guest, Keith Fitz-Gerald, calls it—has been fanning investors’ fears of investments blowing up in their faces. Which stocks can you still trust, and which ones should you avoid? One thing’s for sure, says the well-known analyst, market educator, and co-founder of Keith Fitz-Gerald Research, sitting on the sidelines would be a costly mistake. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Keith talk about the top three factors to watch when picking stocks... which tech stocks to buy now and which to dump... and what’s next for the crypto-sphere. For more of Keith’s hands-on investing ideas and market perspective, click here to sign up for his free daily e-letter, 5 with Fitz. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Relying on the mixed messages from the Federal Reserve isn’t helping investors—it seems like it’s just as confused as everyone else. CPI, the main measurement the Fed looks at, is lagging the market, says contrarian investor and sentiment analyst Jared Dillian. In fact, despite what the Fed says, a new bull market may be just around the corner. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Jared discuss how to recognize when it’s here... which sector might lead the market rally... and how sentiment investing works in practice. To receive Jared’s research 255 days a year, click here for a special discount offer on his unique service, The Daily Dirtnap. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Few people bring together as much expertise on the military, geopolitics, and investing as former CIA Director General Petraeus, who is currently a partner at global investment firm KKR. Petraeus and Ed D’Agostino discuss how the conflict in the Middle East could escalate, what Putin has really accomplished in Ukraine, and the United States’ delicate relationship with China.

What to do, at a time when bonds, cryptocurrencies, and many other investments look less safe than ever before? Everyone should have some allocation to gold, says Milton Berg, CEO, CFO, and chief investment strategist at MB Advisors. Even if you don’t see explosive upside, it will preserve its value over the long term. Show host Ed D’Agostino and his guest discuss whether the bear market in stocks is over... the potential for a 1930s-style economic crash and what can be done to prevent it... what drives a stock’s price on any given day (hint: it is not momentum)... and more, in this episode of Global Macro Update. Don’t miss it—listen now!

Defense Dept. alumnus Elbridge Colby outlines the plan the US should implement now to avoid a “hot” war with China. This interview is a critical follow-up to Colby’s last discussion with Ed D’Agostino about Taiwan’s importance to US national security.

What will 2023 bring? Will it be a banner year for stocks, or will the economy crash and burn? Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group and editor of The Boock Report, gives Global Macro Update listeners his take on what’s in store. Will inflation drop to pre-pandemic levels? What are the investment implications now that the $16 trillion Chinese economy is reopening? Why we’re in a “death by a thousand cuts” environment... Why a “mild and shallow recession” isn’t necessarily a good thing... And are tech stocks a buy yet? For more of Peter’s keen insights on the economy and markets, click here to subscribe to The Boock Report. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

In 2014, a Russian piece of malware targeting Ukraine spread across the world and nearly wiped out the databases of container shipping giant Maersk, FedEx, Merck, and many hospitals in the US. Senior writer at WIRED and author Andy Greenberg talks to Ed D’Agostino about the realities of cyberwarfare. They also discuss cryptocurrencies and their role in cybercrime—including the riveting story of the dark-web kingpin who was taken down thanks to crypto’s formerly unknown traceability. Get Andy’s page-turners, Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin’s Most Dangerous Hackers, and Tracers in the Dark: The Global Hunt for the Crime Lords of Cryptocurrency on Amazon. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Broken Money author, Lyn Alden, likens today’s inflation to the fiscal-driven inflation of the 1940s. Add in a runaway federal deficit and increasing geopolitical instability, and it’s no surprise that gold and bitcoin have both reached new all-time highs.

“Usually coincidences don’t exist in geopolitics.” Ed D’Agostino speaks to Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments about military tensions running hot across the globe, including the Israel-Hamas war, Ukraine, and dustups in the Balkans and the South China Sea. It almost makes you wonder if US enemies are acting in concert to spread our military thin.

We’re entering the golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital, but it won’t be fun for everyone. As the world unravels, thanks to runaway government debt and even more inflation, it will create exceptional opportunities for strategically positioned macro investors. 

Argentina may have finally done something right. Ed D’Agostino interviews Jared Dillian, author of No Worries and Editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about investing in emerging markets, Argentina’s new president-elect, and how to build a “life hedge” into your portfolio.

You may remember the acronym MBS from the ’07–’08 financial crisis. Michael Lewis's book and then movie, The Big Short, taught us all about how the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market almost blew up the global financial system. Well, today, mortgage-backed securities are back in the news…

In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Barry Habib, founder and CEO of MBS Highway, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss the role of mortgage-backed securities in Silicon Valley Bank’s failure—and if the other shoe will drop for the rest of the banking sector.

To hear more from Barry Habib, along with about 50 other financial and economic experts, click here for info on Mauldin Economics’ premier event, the Strategic Investment Conference.

Manufacturing is returning to North America, thanks to automation, a greater focus on resiliency, and rising labor costs in China. This is a good thing, but it will require massive amounts of energy. Where will it come from? Mark Mills has some answers.

The state of modern warfare has changed. It has moved into space for control of what’s orbiting the planet. This poses new threats, including attacks on satellites that control global GPS, and sabotage that renders critical orbits unusable. And a new race to the moon is underway to capture the ultimate commanding heights. We also look at political angst in America, the growing belief that it is us against the political elites, and the upcoming presidential election. I cover that and a whole lot more with guest Dr. Pippa Malmgren, author, economist, and advisor to policymakers and presidents around the world.

“The world is out of balance. The disruptive changes that were already rewiring the economy, geopolitics and US culture accelerated over the past 3 years, and a predictable backlash began. But we are nowhere close to a ‘new normal.’” In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Bruce, who is the head of Mehlman Consulting, a bipartisan Washington, DC lobbying firm, talks with Ed D’Agostino about the current political and geopolitical landscape... the effects of partisan division... and what to watch for in the next years. Don’t miss it. Click here to view Bruce’s fascinating infographic, “Disequilibrium.”

It started in the UK, but it’s only a matter of time before it spreads to the US and beyond: a pension fund crisis of gigantic proportions. Ben Hunt from Epsilon Theory and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss how, due to the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates after the 2008 Financial Crisis, pension fund managers—lured by Wall Street’s promises of outsized returns—took a gamble and lost. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, in a spectacular way. For more details on this topic, read Ben Hunt’s fascinating essay, “A Brief History of the Past 10,000 Years of Monetary Policy and Why Last Week Was a Big Deal.” Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

US trade with China is way down with one disturbing exception: fentanyl. Thousands of Chinese companies are capable of manufacturing ingredients needed to produce the drug and exporting them to the West, along with instructions on how to create fentanyl powder. Many of these companies are state-owned enterprises, according to Allison Fedirka, my guest this week. She says there is no denying that China’s government is involved with the fentanyl drug trade to the US. Allison Fedirka is the director of analysis at Geopolitical Futures (GPF). My subscribers are familiar with the in-depth work of George Friedman and his team at GPF.

Will oil prices recover anytime soon? And what role should oil and gas stocks play in your portfolio? Get some answers from Piper Sandler global energy economist Jan Stuart, along with his thoughts on nuclear energy and China’s “giant Achilles heel.”

Renowned political pollster Dr. Frank Luntz says 70% of Americans don’t want a Biden vs. Trump rematch. Two-thirds would actively consider a third-party candidate. But could a third-party candidate actually win?

Any one of the problems we face—energy prices, housing, inflation—by itself wouldn’t break our back, says John Mauldin, co-founder of Mauldin Economics and one of the most brilliant minds in macroeconomics. But all of them coming together could create a serious crisis. Show host Ed D’Agostino and John discuss what the looming global debt crisis could mean for your portfolio... the disconnect between energy policies and energy needs... and why the Fed needs to “drive a stake through the heart of inflation.” For more of John Mauldin’s macroeconomic insights, click here to subscribe to his free weekly e-letter, Thoughts from the Frontline. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the lifeblood of the technologies driving today’s global disruptions. And 2023 is the year that AI has been catapulted from novel idea to appearing on everyone’s radar. The AI narratives span from the promise of a George Jetson future to fears of a dystopian takeover by AI-empowered robots—and everything in between. To sort this all out, I talked with AI expert Stephen McBride for his take on where we are today, and how to spot the industries and occupations that will be most affected.

Socially responsible investing hasn’t changed anything while handing investors subpar returns. The envisioned benefits of ESG investing—owning companies that follow responsible environmental, social, and governance policies—have failed to materialize. Instead, the blind acceptance of ESG precepts has resulted in trillions of dollars being misallocated and zero progress toward its principle target: climate change. Terrence Keeley, author of Sustainable: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing, shows how ESG got the ideology right and the methodology wrong.

Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian highlights the $8 trillion private equity bubble, built on massive layers of debt, that poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system. Will we get another implosion like we had in 2008?

Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni says it could, citing tech-fueled productivity gains. Join me, Dr. Ed, and his colleague Eric Wallerstein (formerly of the New York Fed and The Wall Street Journal) as we discuss interest rates, inflation, and the housing market, plus which market sectors investors should focus on now.

Is the US in “Cold War II” with China? CrowdStrike founder Dmitri Alperovitch believes we are, and that it could turn kinetic, starting with China invading Taiwan. Why? China can’t dominate everything in and around the South China Sea without full control of Taiwan. Is an invasion imminent?

India looks amazing on paper: 1.4 billion people, the world’s fastest-growing economy, and rapid digitization. In this episode, you’ll hear why Cognitive Investment partner Jacob Shapiro gives India’s hottest growth sector a “9 or a 10.”

QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth unpacks recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we’re barreling toward stagflation. You’ll also hear about AI’s impact on jobs, “condo-mageddon,” and what all this means for the markets.

The world is not going to return to its pre-pandemic business as usual. Instead, we are currently in a transition phase that few understand. That’s why I asked Bruce Mehlman, partner at Mehlman Consulting, to join me on Global Macro Update to talk about what the new normal will look like. Bruce says we face four main challenges—what he calls The Four Addictions—as we navigate a period of tough domestic choices and geopolitical realignments. He explains what they are and how they are inextricably linked.

Bleakley Advisory Group CIO Peter Boockvar talks interest rates, why new housing construction is set to plummet, and what dog food says about the economy. You’ll also hear why chatter about China’s economic Armageddon is overblown and why that’s good for everyone.

Big Tech is watching. Companies like Google track what you read and watch, where you drive, and what you buy. Most of this is out of your control. Frank McCourt, Jr., author of Our Biggest Fight and former LA Dodgers owner, is putting up $500 million to change that.

Why is inflation so sticky, how long is it going to last, and where should we invest? Show host Ed D’Agostino talks with Vincent Deluard, director of global macro at StoneX, about the trifecta of trends that caused the current inflationary environment... why an economic slowdown won’t cure inflation... what to expect for 2023... and the three crisis-proof sectors every investor should own today. For more of Vincent’s excellent research, click here for a free trial to his StoneX reports. You can also follow him on Twitter. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Former US Army Ranger Paul Scharre knows all about AI’s darker potential. He talks to Mauldin Economics publisher Ed D’Agostino about AI’s role in combat, the rise of Chinese-style techno-authoritarianism, and US vulnerabilities in the Panama Canal.

AI is amplifying online national security threats. Intelligence expert Karim Hijazi discusses the “new Cold War” and how cyberspace became the primary medium for spycraft and warfare among advanced nations.

Master of nuance Jacob Shapiro, a partner at Cognitive Investments, breaks down why the last 30 years of globalization were an aberration, how it started to unwind with Obama’s tire/poultry trade war, and which country will become “the next China.”

Author and former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian discusses the Fed, why 90% of managing money is waiting, and his latest book, No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. Jared shares how to get your big financial choices right—and the one decision that trumps them all.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did we cross a line? Or did we cross it decades earlier in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks?

It’s a seller’s market now, but housing is about to reverse course, says real estate and mortgage expert Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway. Barry and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss why mortgage rates are about to drop, creating great buying opportunities... why the Fed won’t purchase any more mortgage-backed securities... how a specific type of real estate investment can give you a 320%+ return in less than a decade... need-to-know financing strategies for first-time homebuyers... and more. Learn more about Barry Habib and his work at https://mbshighway.com. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Mauldin Economics COO Ed D’Agostino talks to Louis Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, about China’s so-called economic crisis, the Fed’s unspoken third mandate, and “the real story of the summer.”

Building resiliency, in part by decoupling the US economy from China’s, is essential to our long-term security. China is doing the same thing. Yet China’s export business is booming, and it dominates trade with other emerging markets. Is a communist nation beating us at capitalism?

Grant Williams calls Evergreen Gavekal CIO David Hay “one of the good guys.” We’re excited to welcome him to the podcast. Get David’s insights on the future of small nuclear reactors, China, and a specific investing signal you should be watching now.

Is the age of plenty over? Economist Bill White says it ended with COVID. Now we’re moving into an age of scarcity—and it’s putting us at war. As Bill puts it, “We're in a war to preserve our market-based, capitalist, democratic system in an environment that is going to be very, very difficult to navigate.”

The US can’t rely on Russia for uranium anymore. Hear from Uranium Energy Corp. CEO Amir Adnani on US energy policy and the critical role nuclear plays for the US military, NASA, and artificial intelligence-backed technologies.

My guest this episode sees several things simmering beneath the surface that suggest the economy may not be as weak as many believe. When inflation spiked last year, companies responded by raising their prices. As price pressures started to ease, companies opted to prioritize pricing over volume. The move made perfect sense, says Samuel Rines, Managing Director at Corbu, LLC, as pricing helped maintain margins. It’s a strategy he has dubbed “price and margin” (PAM). And as input costs retreated and prices stayed steady, the money fell to the bottom line. It’s one of the things that kept him bullish in the face of widespread bearishness early this year.

Most Americans are pro-nuclear now, but US regulators are hindering our nuclear energy program without making us safer. Nuclear engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin highlights the onerous regulatory process, as well as the exciting progress we’re making with fusion and SMRs. You’ll also hear how the US is ceding global nuclear markets to its top adversary.

The debt ceiling  has been dumbed-down to a political debate of right vs. left. But the ramifications of the debt standoff are already being felt in the debt markets, and it’s costing us billions of dollars. In this episode of Global Macro Update, I talk with David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors. We discuss the costs of brinkmanship, the risks posed to money market funds, the geopolitical side effects, and where he sees bargains in the bond market.

Many investors wonder, how long until the whole house of cards comes crashing down? There are bright spots in the near term, says top global macro investor Felix Zulauf, but in a few years’ time, we might face a true calamity in our financial and economic systems. Felix and host Ed D’Agostino talk about the coming decade of roller coaster markets... what may replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency (and when)... and why we need to brace ourselves for the difficult years of 2024–25. Learn more about Felix’s spot-on analysis at https://www.felixzulauf.com. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Jan Stuart has one of the most fascinating jobs in finance. As an energy analyst at investment bank Piper Sandler, he not only monitors trends in the energy markets, but also the spiderweb of geopolitical forces that affect how (and if) 8 billion people across the globe keep the lights on. In the latest Global Macro Update interview, Jan and Ed D’Agostino discuss nuclear energy’s “green” makeover, the private support Bill Gates is pouring into nuclear development, and whether uranium bulls are too early to the party.

Good stuff is happening. GDP is up. Unemployment is low. Inflation has dropped. Yet people seem miserable. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm explains the disconnect.

According to a recent NBC News poll, 74% of Americans now think that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Show host Ed D’Agostino and Andrew Yang, former presidential primary candidate and co-founder of the Forward Party, discuss why our political system is so broken... and the common-sense solutions that could turn the ship around. No matter where you are on the political spectrum, you’ll be appalled to hear what career politics is really like—and amazed how much of this content you’ll agree on. For more of Andrew Yang’s bold ideas on how to rewire American democracy, read his book, Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy. Don’t miss this episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Has Xi already lost control? Renowned geopolitical strategist George Friedman is on the podcast to discuss the threat of civil war in China, solutions to the stalemate in Ukraine, and the future of Gaza.

High interest rates have a silver lining: Savers are making money again. What opportunities are currently out there for fixed-income investors? Talking to show host Ed D’Agostino, Jason Brady, president and CEO of Thornburg Asset Management, gives Global Macro Update listeners the inside scoop. Have the markets returned to normal? Is now the time to invest in municipal bonds or distressed debt? Why the Fed’s thinking that 2020 was like 2008 was a grave error... and the number-one mistake investors make when they see an inverted yield curve like we have now. Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

Inflation in the system is much stickier than people anticipated, with corporations passing on prices to the everyday consumer. It begs the question: How high can prices go before there’s a breaking point when consumers begin to push back?

In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Samuel Rines, managing director of Corbu LLC, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss how today’s inflationary environment boils down to the acronym POV and factors into the Fed’s next moves.

They also cover the craziness of “revenge travel,” widespread tech layoffs, low unemployment, rising wages due to the “Walmart Effect,” and how Middle America continues to play catch-up.

For even more of his insights, make sure to follow Sam on Twitter.

The economy, as any investor knows or will quickly learn, is not the same as the stock market. What’s happening today resembles the Great Inflation of the 1970s. Talk of stagflation, recession, and hard and soft landings—it can make your head spin to see how quickly things have unfolded.

In this week’s episode of Global Macro Update, Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, joins Ed D’Agostino to discuss today’s urgent storylines, as well as the two sectors Dr. Yardeni favors for long-term investors and how turbulent times can lead to a future led by productivity.

To learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni, you can read his bio here. It includes links to his book publications, a complimentary trial of his research service, and his LinkedIn newsletter.

Trust in elected officials has been in steady decline for decades. It’s hard to decide if members of Congress and other elected officials are self-serving or civil servants. One thing is certain—many are getting richer while in office. They are investing based on insider knowledge. If you or I did that, we’d go to jail. If you are in Congress, it’s perfectly legal. Matt K. Lewis just released a book on this topic, and he pulls no punches. Filthy Rich Politicians explains just how badly our system is broken and which politicians are the most egregious when it comes to lining their pockets. 

The narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weak demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down. Bison Interests founder Josh Young tells a different story, filled with OPEC cheaters, nationalization undertones, and a much smaller global oil supply than people think.

Before you invest in a stock, check how happy the employees, customers, and suppliers of that company are, says Jon Clifton, CEO of polling company Gallup and author of the WSJ best-seller, Blind Spot: The Global Rise of Unhappiness and How Leaders Missed It. He and show host Ed D’Agostino discuss why global unhappiness is on the rise... which two emotional factors increase your risk of death by up to 50%... and how non-traditional indicators can have a major impact on a business’s bottom line. You can get Jon Clifton’s excellent book grounded in Gallup’s global research here: https://www.amazon.com/Blind-Spot-Global-Unhappiness-Leaders/dp/1595622454/ Don’t miss this week’s episode of Global Macro Update—listen now!

The cost of college has risen so much that more than half of Americans no longer think a college education is “worth it.” We have reached the point where the cost of a four-year degree will likely be the second-largest expenditure in your lifetime, second only to your house. Students are literally mortgaging their futures to pay for college. What happens next for higher education, and how should prospective students and their parents weigh their options? These are the topics of this week’s Global Macro Update. Economist Dr. Gary Shilling joins us with his thoughts on the cost of higher education and alternatives to the college track.

Zombie companies need cheap money to survive. Cheap money is a thing of the past, and casualties are piling up. It’s a familiar script: borrow money to fund growth, and compete on price. That business model fails when interest rates rise quickly. As debt-burdened, low-cost providers get squeezed by higher rates, more will fail. My guest is Barry Habib of Highway.ai. Barry fears the Fed is looking for clues in the rear-view mirror. Looking ahead and extrapolating trends would give the Fed a better perspective and less incentive to raise rates. We also cover interest rates, housing, and inflation.

Gold keeps reaching new highs with demand coming from central banks, particularly China’s. Renowned macro portfolio manager Nick Glinsman discusses his preferred method for holding gold, the bifurcation of global commodity markets, and one of his top oil plays.

The Fed seems determined to crush demand and slow inflation. And it’s having an impact on more than just banks and the housing market. The office market is also struggling with spiking interest rates and scarce liquidity. In this episode of Global Macro Update, I talk with Russell Ingrum and Brad Zampa, two senior partners at CBRE, a global leader in commercial real estate services and investments. We discuss the current state of the office properties market. For more top-level insights like this, I invite you to attend our live, online Strategic Investment Conference. Hear over 40 experts share their best market ideas and their warnings about the economy and geopolitics. More information is available here.

Foreign policy expert Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, breaks down China’s plan to dominate the Eastern Hemisphere and then challenge US hegemony. In other words: Are we going to war with China?

How much of investing is luck, and how do you make your own luck? What are the secrets of success for the top investors of our time? What will the future look like for cryptocurrencies, the financial sector, and US retirees? Show host Ed D’Agostino and The Carlyle Group co-founder and co-chairman David Rubenstein discuss all these questions and more in this episode of Global Macro Update. Highly recommended read: David’s new bestseller, How to Invest: Masters on the Craft, a fascinating tour through the minds of some of the most successful investors of our age. Don’t miss it—listen now!

The US is scrambling to “de-risk” from China by fortifying US supply chains. But China has been de-risking from the US for over a decade. Ed D’Agostino speaks with former UBS chief economist George Magnus about what this geopolitical transformation means for Western investors and the huge changes happening at China’s Central Bank.

RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says, “99% of crypto is absolute garbage. I wouldn't touch it. I think the other 1% will change the world.” Stephen runs a crypto advisory that’s outperformed bitcoin. He shares his crypto portfolio’s largest holding and how new bitcoin ETFs will change crypto investing.

Something phenomenal happened in 2001: People generated more information that year than they had in all human history combined to that point. Hear from former CIA analyst Martin Gurri, who unpacks the effects of this information “tsunami” in his book, The Revolt of the Public.

If you listen to the financial media, you’d think seven stocks are responsible for “the market’s” gain this year. But the charts are telling us otherwise. Almost every sector is up double digits since last June. To understand what’s happening in the markets, this week we connect with market technician JC Parets. JC is the founder and chief analyst at All Star Charts. The company offers daily market commentary and a technical analysis platform for research and options trading. He is seeing the continuation of a healthy sector rotation that started last year when value rallied. He has charts and comments on several stocks, commodities, and sectors.