Flux News (Onyx Capital Group)
Explorez tous les épisodes de Flux News
| Date | Titre | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb 2022 | $90 Oil & Russia Sanctions with Jay Maroo | 00:29:27 | |
S4 E1 | |||
| 10 Feb 2022 | Oversupply in the Oil Market with Citi's Ed Morse | 00:27:59 | |
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Citi Group's Ed Morse. | |||
| 23 Feb 2022 | Russia Ukraine Impact on the Oil Market with Bloomberg's Mike McGlone | 00:23:38 | |
Season 4, Episode 3: | |||
| 02 Mar 2022 | OPEC+, Sanctions and Russian Supply with Bassam Fattouh | 00:31:59 | |
Season 4, Episode 4: In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Dr Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. They discuss the impact of potential loss of Russian oil supplies on the oil market, the Saudi response to the Iran deal and the urgency surrounding the North Sea Contract. | |||
| 16 Mar 2022 | Brent Sell Off & Geopolitical Outlook for Oil with Bjarne Schieldrop | 00:26:01 | |
Season 4, Episode 5 You can find both Greg and Bjarne on LinkedIn: | |||
| 23 Mar 2022 | Financial Systems Driving Markets with Ehsan Massah | 00:26:50 | |
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx Advisory. You can find both Greg and Ehsan on LinkedIn: Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx | |||
| 13 Apr 2022 | Russian Supply, OPEC and Understanding the Dated Brent Contract | S4E7 | 00:25:05 | |
In this week’s episode, Greg explains the crisis around Russian oil and gas supply, the response from OPEC and why the upcoming changes to the Dated Brent contract are so significant. Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 20 Apr 2022 | The Realities of the Hydrogen Debate with Erik Rakhou | S4 EP8 | 00:34:34 | |
In this week’s episode, Greg is joined by Erik Rakhou, co-author of ‘Touching Hydrogen Future’, a free to download book that presents a vision of Hydrogen’s potential in economies globally. You can download the book here. https://europeangasmarket.eu And you can find Greg on LinkedIn here. | |||
| 29 Apr 2022 | A Trader’s Perspective on Carbon with Eric Rubenstein | S4 EP9 | 00:31:40 | |
In this week’s episode, Greg speaks with Managing Partner of New Climate Ventures, Eric Rubenstein. The pair speak about the robustness of the carbon market in the face of economic volatility, the momentum created by consumer demand, and the reality of trading carbon. You can find both Greg and Eric on LinkedIn: Eric Rubenstein, Managing Partner of New Climate Ventures | |||
| 11 May 2022 | Becoming an Onyx Trader with Omar Kayaam | S4 EP10 | 00:37:13 | |
What does it take to be a trader at Onyx? On this week’s episode of the podcast Greg is joined by co-founder of Onyx and Director of Trading, Omar Kayaam. They reflect on the Onyx journey, what qualities it takes to succeed in a trading environment and current market volatility. You can find both Greg and Omar on LinkedIn Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO Omar Kayaam, Co-Founder at Onyx Capital Group | |||
| 20 May 2022 | The Calm Before the Hedging Storm? - Ehsan Massah S4EP11 | 00:29:04 | |
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx Advisory, returns. Greg and Ehsan take a detailed look at current market dynamics across products and look ahead to what could be some turbulence to come, as margin hedging flows come under pressure. | |||
| 22 Jun 2022 | Becoming a Junior Trader with Tara Uttamaram & Pranav Menon | S5 EP1 | 00:43:14 | |
We start the new season with some new traders. Greg is joined by two of Onyx Commodities freshest recruits Tara Uttamaram & Pranav Menon. For those interested in a career in financial oil trading, this episode is for you. | |||
| 14 Apr 2023 | OPEC+ Cuts & East VS West | S5 E2 | 00:40:48 | |
We're back! Greg Newman is joined by the Research team in Onyx's brand new studios. In this episode - the team discuss OPEC+ cuts, the media's reaction and much more. Ehsan Massah | |||
| 21 Apr 2023 | The Right Side of History | Just Stop Oil | S5 E3 | 00:52:16 | |
Greg Newman is joined once again by the Onyx Research team. In this episode - the team discuss Just Stop Oil, the future of renewables and recession fears. | |||
| 26 Apr 2023 | The Financialisation of Oil | A Reality Check | S5 E4 | 00:47:32 | |
In this episode Greg Newman and the Onyx Research team discuss Chinese fuel demand, weak refinery margins, and the natural gas market. | |||
| 03 May 2023 | Markets & Casinos | Trading Philosophy | S5 EP5 | 00:50:40 | |
This week; the team discusses BP's profits hitting $5B whilst shares slip on slowing buybacks. Plus - how much do we know about diesel and gasoline being smuggling out of Iran? And - is trading at all like gambling? | |||
| 09 May 2023 | The Unexpected Perspective | S5 E6 | 00:49:31 | |
On the agenda this week is the evolution of trading culture. Plus - how did we build our research team here at Onyx? And - how much recognition are financial flows getting in the derivatives market today? | |||
| 19 May 2023 | Fuelled for Success | The Reawakening of the Oil Market | S5 E7 | 00:40:52 | |
In this episode Greg Newman and the Onyx Research team discuss the resurgence in the markets. Plus - will OPEC cut again? | |||
| 23 May 2023 | The Data Frontier | Driving Innovation in Oil Swaps | S5 E8 | 01:04:02 | |
Greg Newman speaks to the Onyx Data team. Discover how the integration of data-driven strategies is revolutionising decision-making processes, enhancing operational efficiency, and fuelling innovation within the oil swaps landscape. | |||
| 30 May 2023 | From Cuts to Content | Anticipating OPEC+ & The Success of #WuFridays | S5 E9 | 00:47:23 | |
In this episode Greg Newman and Vincent Wu discuss the market dynamics surrounding another potenital OPEC+ cut. Plus - insight into the genesis and growth of #WuFridays | |||
| 06 Jun 2023 | OPEC+ Cuts Again | Winners and Losers | S5 E10 | 00:32:11 | |
In this episode the Onyx Research team react to the outcome of the latest OPEC+ meeting and the Saudi output pledge. | |||
| 13 Jun 2023 | Algo Trading | Fake News & Markets | S5 E11 | 00:53:39 | |
This week, Greg is joined by Audrey & Vincent. Audrey asks whether markets are ready to handle AI-generated images and why humans are so bad at spotting them. Vincent looks at what the bloc can do to 'Make OPEC great again' and the team discuss S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at highest levels since April '22. Greg Newman | |||
| 20 Jun 2023 | Market Influencers & Value Investing in Oil | S5 E12 | 00:52:55 | |
Ehsan & Vincent join Greg for this episode. The team touch on market influencers, value investing and why the oil derivatives market is going to present great opportunities for retail traders. | |||
| 28 Jun 2023 | Greg Newman's Book Release with James King | S5 E13 | 00:43:54 | |
The definitive book on financial oil markets is here! Greg speaks to performance expert and old friend James King about the release of his new book 'World of Oil Derivatives'. Greg talks about why he wrote the book and why now is the perfect time for a resource like this in the market. | |||
| 04 Jul 2023 | QE in the Oil Market? | Saudi Cuts Extended | S5 E14 | 00:47:57 | |
Ehsan, Vincent & Audrey join Greg for this episode. On the agenda is the bullish momentum in Brent and Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its voluntary cuts. | |||
| 11 Jul 2023 | Onyx Co-founders: How We Made an Elite Trading Business | S5 E15 | 00:35:54 | |
Onyx was co-founded in 2016 by Omar Kayaam and Greg Newman. After their success building and trading their own market-making desks at Mandara Capital, they left to start their own company with a view to capitalise on the rapidly evolving oil derivatives market. Greg Newman | |||
| 18 Jul 2023 | A Recipe of Contrasts | Saudi Oil Cuts and the Sweet-Sour Balance | S5E16 | 00:37:03 | |
Greg is joined by Martha, Vincent & Audrey for this episode. What does the future look like for OPEC+? And - what will the impact of China's diversification strategy mean for global oil trade? | |||
| 26 Jul 2023 | The Evolution of Broking | Consultancy With an Edge | S5E17 | 00:41:01 | |
Joining Greg this week are Mackenzie and Alec, senior brokers at Onyx Capital Group, as they share insights into their unique roles. Discover how the brokerage model is adapting to meet the needs of a new generation of traders and explore the value of information and expertise in a rapidly changing market. | |||
| 01 Aug 2023 | Decoding the Gasoline Rally | S5 E18 | 00:40:57 | |
This week Greg is joined by Ehsan, Vincent & Audrey. What are the market mechanisms behind the recent rally in gasoline? And - what impact will the issuing of 100 new North Sea contracts have on production? | |||
| 08 Aug 2023 | Oil ETFs and Their Impact on the Market | S5 E19 | 00:31:27 | |
Joining Greg once again are Ehsan, Audrey and Vincent. The team review the Q2 financial reports for the big 6. And - a technical breakdown of how ETF flows interact with the oil market. | |||
| 15 Aug 2023 | Naphtha Is Back | S5 E20 | 00:32:47 | |
Director of Brokerage, Harry, and podcast regular Ehsan join Greg this week. They discuss strength in Naphtha, how oil swaps contracts are interconnected and the media narrative around the latest oil rally. | |||
| 22 Aug 2023 | The LNG Price Surge | S5 E21 | 00:47:33 | |
Greg and the research team discuss the past week in LNG, share two trade ideas and provide some insight into Japan's energy markets. | |||
| 31 Aug 2023 | From Journalist to Champion Boxer | Amy Andrew & Greg Newman | 00:42:43 | |
In this special episode, Greg speaks to English and New Zealand national boxing champion, Amy Andrew, about her life and career. | |||
| 05 Sep 2023 | Shifting Fundamentals | Crude Market Update | S5 E23 | 00:34:22 | |
This week Greg is joined by Audrey as they discuss Onyx's futures report, building momentum in the crude market, and how the media narrative could play in to this anticipated rally. | |||
| 12 Sep 2023 | APPEC, LNG Strikes & Psychological Levels |S5 E24 | 00:30:07 | |
The Onyx Research team: Audrey, Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg Newman for a market update. Vincent discusses his first attendance to APPEC and the headlines that have since come out about trade houses and majors signalling bullish again after a lull this year. Which leaves us asking the question; what does Q4 hold? The LNG plant strikes in Australia saw workers at Chevron (which accounts for 5% of global supply) walk off the job on Friday after talks broke down. Martha poses an interesting question; is a strike a big enough threat to weaponize energy prices? Greg and the team analyse how the LNG Strike can affect psychological levels, influence how people set their targets and change how people take profit or stop out, shedding light on what this might mean for the market in the next five years. If you wish to watch this as a video and follow along with the graphs and data discussed, please head over to our Youtube channel here: https://youtu.be/1nqhR80BF0s | |||
| 19 Sep 2023 | ONYX Leadership | John Beckwith: Chief People Officer | 01:02:17 | |
Hiring the right people is key to any business's success. In this special episode, Greg is joined by John Beckwith, the Chief People Officer of Onyx Capital Group, to discuss the importance of proper recruitment, building strong business foundations, and what makes a great leader. John and Greg explain the harsh realities that CEOs are met with, what qualities exceptional managers possess, and how climbing the corporate ladder can impact professional and personal relationships with colleagues. John provides insight into his role at Onyx and shares his wealth of previous experience, which led him to this role. What constitutes your highest value employee? Just how important is it to not compromise on your foundational principles? And - what are the key ingredients for rapid growth in business? To learn more about ONYX Capital Group, head to our website; Home | Onyx Capital Group To learn more about Chief People Officer Greg Beckwith, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-beckwith-110b1357/ To learn more about Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ #Business #businessphilosophy #careeradvice #hiring #people | |||
| 26 Sep 2023 | Trading: next week’s potential liquidity drought | S5 E26 | 00:29:58 | |
Will an oil price rally mean higher airfares? As people are looking to purchase flights home for Christmas, we of course notice that prices are drastically higher. Although this is a classic case of dynamic pricing, we also need to consider the role Brent plays in all of this, as there’s a clear sensitivity around $100 per barrel and $120 on the products. Join the Onyx team for a market update, covering high flat prices, demand destruction and how this will affect airlines. Greg, Audrey, Vincent and Martha discuss what’s happening to the outright prices this week, the refinery margin change as well as their trade ideas, highlighting how China’s Golden week holiday will play into prices. If you would like to suggest a topic of discussion for the podcast, please send us a message on linked in. You can find us at Onyx Capital Group - https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/?viewAsMember=true Learn more about the Onyx Team: Greg Newman, CEO & Founder: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ Audrey Byrne, Research Associate: https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/ Vincent Wu, Research Associate: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ Martha Dowding, Research Analyst: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
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| 04 Oct 2023 | The Risk-Reward Gamble | S5 E27 | 00:46:53 | |
With the interest rate worries continuing, the strong US dollar and products weak it begs the question as to “how are we not rallying?” The Research team discusses the complete weakness in RBBR right now. Although it’s very weak in the futures, the end user isn't seeing the good effects of this. Greg dives into a deep discussion into over-thinking and risk-reward strategy. While Audrey and Vincent bring some great trade ideas to the table. If you would like to watch on Youtube, you can follow along with the graphics discussed on screen with the team. Make sure to like and subscribe. If you have any questions you’d like us to answer on the podcast, make sure to send us a message on Linked In. You can find us at Onyx Capital Group - https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/?viewAsMember=true | |||
| 10 Oct 2023 | Oil and the Geopolitical Risk Premium | S5 E28 | 00:29:46 | |
CEO and Onyx Founder Greg Neman joins Research Associate Vincent Wu to discuss the Geopolitical Risk Premium and how the attacks on Israel have caused a bullish reaction. But the question is, what will happen to prices based on Iran’s role in the tensions in the Middle East? | |||
| 17 Oct 2023 | Fear and loathing in Oil Markets | S5 E29 | 00:34:11 | |
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, and the potential for further escalations has led the crude oil market to experience a significant price increase in Brent and WTI, posting a near 6% gain on Friday (the highest daily percentage gain since April). Greg, Vincent and Martha ask (and answer) the question: Is $100 Oil back on the menu? Make sure to view this episode on YouTube if you’d like to follow along with the on screen graphics.
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| 24 Oct 2023 | Just Acquire Oil | S5 E30 | 00:37:20 | |
Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the large oil and gas merges and acquisitions. ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer and this is pretty much doubling down in shale oil, which is only strengthening the U.S. economy and energy security. Greg discusses the significant impact of the derivative market on the oil and gas industry, highlighting the historical shift from independent-driven production with hedging to a more consolidated and less systematically hedged market and the potential for decreased selling flow volatility due to larger majors entering the shale field. Martha, Vincent and Greg examine the pricing dynamics of December contracts in the context of geopolitical sentiment and emphasize the need for diversification beyond simply buying or selling oil. Greg highlights the potential for retail investors to engage in more sophisticated trading strategies, particularly focusing on East v West naphtha contracts as a way to profit from current global events. | |||
| 26 Oct 2023 | ONYX Leadership | Women in Leadership | 00:36:12 | |
As another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, today we’ll hear from some of the women on the Onyx Team in Leadership roles. This episode is hosted by Alexandra Carlon, Head of Media & Marketing. She interviews Manny Sandhu, Head of Crude, Maria Boixados, Head of Direct Trading and Polly Cooper, Senior Associate Commercial Manager about the realities of Leadership in a predominately male industry. They have an open discussion about everything from their leadership styles to the importance of practicing resilience in an intense environment and even discuss if crying at work as a woman is appropriate or something to avoid completely. Each shed light on how much they’ve grown and built confidence in their time at Onyx and look back at how far they’ve come. | |||
| 01 Nov 2023 | Middle East / Panama Canal: Trading The Right Contracts | S5 E32 | 00:36:48 | |
Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the impact of the Israil / Gaza conflict on the market - Crude oil remains below $90/bbl and has fallen to $85/bbl week-on-week as Israel’s ground operations in Gaza remained limited, easing concerns of escalation into the wider region. The impact of weather on gasoil is discussed: the weather hasn’t been cold enough to inspire bullish attitudes and the weather is pretty mild for this time of year. The degree of impact from the continued Panama Canal delays is also discussed. | |||
| 07 Nov 2023 | East Powering the Market | S5 E33 | 00:28:13 | |
The team discusses the current Brent flat price (around $83/bbl), with prices down due to concerns about China's economic situation and traders now discounting geopolitical risk. Greg, Vincent, and Martha mention a decline in managed money positions in recent weeks, contributing to an overall bearish outlook in the oil market. Vincent predicts the bullish factor in the market for Q4. | |||
| 14 Nov 2023 | Hide the Oil S5| Ep 34 | 00:28:15 | |
Onyx Research Analyst Martha Dowding joins Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman for a market update, a discussion on the growth of oil demand growth (noting an increase to 4 million barrels per day despite challenges), and Martha recommends her Trade Idea of the week is to long the Q1 regrade due to shifting weather forecasts in Asia. Greg expresses scepticism about forecasting demand and emphasizes the significance of the supply side, particularly the commitment to U.S. shale oil production. The increasing supply trend, suggests a potential need for creative solutions like bilateral agreements to manage inventories and fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. | |||
| 16 Nov 2023 | Onyx Leadership | Chief Revenue Officer Miles Hempsall | 00:45:01 | |
In this special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, hosted by Onyx Capital Group's CEO Greg Newman, we sit down with Chief Revenue Officer Miles Hempsall to discuss Miles' journey within the world of oil derivatives. Miles shares his ethos on building commercial success, the challenges and opportunities of creating value in research and data businesses, and his vision for the future of Onyx in this open and candid discussion. To watch the Video Podcast, click here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk6cXhuBi73qO9OUcK1JPeDy To learn more about Chief Revenue Officer, Miles Hempsall, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/mileshempsall/ To learn more about Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ #Business #businessphilosophy #crude #oil #leadership | |||
| 22 Nov 2023 | Preparing for OPEC Meeting S5 | E36 | 00:32:29 | |
Oil market participants are anxiously in “wait and see” mode ahead of the OPEC meeting and Greg shares his presentation summarizing market sentiment over recent months. Greg discusses the current state of oil markets, highlighting a recent sell-off in Brent crude below $90 per barrel at the beginning of Q4. The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and a subsequent overcorrection, led to prices briefly dropping below $80. RINs have been weak with news of a strong soybean harvest supporting biofuel supply, renewed Russian gasoline exports and weak driving demand. The market is now focused on OPEC's upcoming meeting and potential decisions regarding production cuts, with uncertainty about oil prices in 2024. The overall sentiment suggests a recent shift towards a bearish outlook. Greg suggests that even yesterday and this morning, we're seeing some indication that there is some opportunistic buying ahead of this meeting. Vincent weighs with his Trade Idea of the week, to go short in the Jan/Feb Sing 0.5 spread. | |||
| 28 Nov 2023 | Potential Energy in Oil Markets S5 | E37 | 00:22:52 | |
A volatile market influenced by OPEC headlines is still leaving oil markets sitting anxiously in “wait and see” mode. With the anticipation surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting, Brent crude has been oscillating around $80. The market is expecting OPEC to deepen existing cuts, with fundamentals largely skewed to the downside. Refinery margins have been improving week on week due to crude weakness although we're seeing weakness down the barrel in the products. There was an improvement of over a dollar whilst there was weakness across most products including gasoil and EBOB. Martha explains why. Martha recommends the LNG story as the one to watch. Origin Energy announced reduced gas supply to Australian Pacific LNG. A loaded tanker lost power, delaying LNG cargoes. Its two main customers are China's Sinopec and Japan's Kansai Electric. Vincent has an interesting Trade Idea of the week: Range trading Q1/Q2 MOPJ swaps 7-day ATR: 4.25 Trade between $14-18/mt Strategy: Track the 20-day Moving Average. Exit trade once volatility dies down.
Links below to Greg, Martha, Vincent's LinkedIn pages: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/ Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ #worldofoilderivatives #oott #oil #tradeidea #oilderivatives #podcast #marketupdate | |||
| 30 Nov 2023 | Onyx Leadership | Chief Technology Officer Ishaan Hemnani | 00:42:12 | |
In this episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Chief Technology Officer Ishaan Hemnani joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the vital role of technology in the oil derivatives industry. Ishaan is an extremely unique and rare person within the industry, having experience as Fuel Trader, before pivoting into technology and creating Bunker X, which has become the playbook for many in the oil industry. Ishaan and Greg discuss how they came to work together and why Ishaan chose to move over to Onyx Capital Group. Ishaan also explains how we’re using AI in the industry, and why we shouldn’t fear it as much as we do. To learn more about Greg and Ishaan, check out their LinkedIn profiles: | |||
| 05 Dec 2023 | OPEC’s Poker Face S5 | Ep 39 | 00:35:32 | |
Onyx Research Associate Martha Downing joins CEO Greg Newman with a market update and the pair discuss how the markets were affected pre and post OPEC meeting. | |||
| 07 Dec 2023 | Dated Brent Minutia with Kurt Chapman S5 | Ep 40 | 00:54:30 | |
Industry Legend and Director of Levmet, Kurt Chapman, joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the evolution of the Dated Brent market. Kurt discusses his plethora of experience in the physical and financial markets. He graduated from Harvard University with a BA in Economics and went on to serve as an Infantry Officer in the US Marine Corps. He explains how his time in the Marines prepared him for life as a Commodity Trader. His wide-spanning trading career started on Wall Street in the '80s, where trading commodities was relatively new, and by 2006 Kurt joined Mercuria Energy Trading in Geneva as an Equity Partner and Global Head of Crude. In his 30 years in the industry, he’s seen significant change in how Crude is traded. From volatility in the early 2000s and the commodities super cycle, to the economic crash in 2009, to OPEC bringing discipline back into the market, Kurt discusses the evolution of the market from making trades via phone calls and pagers to the migration to the electronic exchange and how that affected Traders' lines of work. Kurt and Greg discuss how the Brent Benchmark has evolved over the years and now includes US crude. Its ability to evolve is what keeps the Brent benchmark the number one benchmark in oil. They also discuss the future of Crude Oil Trading and where the market is heading. | |||
| 12 Dec 2023 | EBOB is Dead? S5 | Ep 41 | 00:32:27 | |
In the latest developments in the global oil market, bearish sentiment has taken hold as OPEC cuts clash with the surge in non-OPEC production (notably from the United States and Guyana). The market is treading cautiously, adopting a risk-off stance as it awaits crucial macroeconomic headlines. Investors are on edge in anticipation of the CPI report on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Brent crude has found stability, settling around the mid-70s, a level deemed comfortable by industry observers. But a glimmer of positivity emerged as a bullish non-farm payroll result put a temporary halt to the downward spiral of crude prices. As for changes in the refinery margin, W-O-W decrease for the first time in weeks and weakness in products is finally overtaking the weakness in Dated as the products are finally driving the margins. The biggest loser is gasoline now as RBBR hasn’t been strong, and data revealed today shows Euro stocks up in Nov 1mbbls and the US have seen 3 weeks of increasing builds US gasoline imports from Europe plunged in the first week of December to the lowest in more than three years. Vincent brings an interesting trade idea this week. He suggests going long in the Jan/Feb EBOB spread. To catch the full Trade Idea, click here: https://youtu.be/2P-_yGY4BDU Links below to Greg, Vincent and Martha’s LinkedIn pages: Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/ | |||
| 19 Dec 2023 | Geopolitical Risk Premium Encore S5 | E42 | 00:39:23 | |
The resolution of the OPEC drama has brought contentment to market players as they embrace a stable oil price in the low 70s. Despite this relief, demand concerns persist as Brent spreads remain in contango until April/May'24, indicating a prevailing weak physical sentiment in the market. Complicating matters, a geopolitical risk premium hangs over the Red Sea, prompting commercial shipping companies to avoid the area. Instead, vessels are rerouted through the safer but longer passage around the Cape of Good Hope due to heightened tensions involving the Houthis. These actions, including attempts to obstruct cargo shipments to Israel and claiming responsibility for past attacks, have placed major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd on high alert. Refinery margins have seen increased support, with the influence of crude oil being amplified in the products. Notably, there has been a positive shift in gasoil and European gasoline (EBOB). Despite EBOB experiencing robust bidding throughout the week, there has been a noteworthy shift in the trade house's stance from bidding to selling in significant volume in the prompt market. Martha gives her trade Idea of the week; going long in the Feb WTI/Brent futures spread, but you can learn more about that here: https://youtu.be/NKUR7n_rYmY | |||
| 22 Dec 2023 | The Future of the Panama Canal with Luke Mcdemott S5 | E43 | 00:49:49 | |
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Onyx Capital Group CEO is joined by Onyx Partner and Head of Desk for NGL, Luke Mcdermott. | |||
| 09 Jan 2024 | Oil is Back in Fashion | S6 E01 | 00:36:19 | |
World of Oil Derivatives is back for 2024! With a new year, traders, market analysts and market observers are looking for a consensus. Research houses are making their claims, and banks their forecasts, and it will still be 1-2 months before we hear from trade houses and majors about their outlook for the year. So could the global economy surprise us to the upside this year? Could we get lower interest rates that brings on a risk on move in macro markets? Or, as always, could there be a geopolitical conflict that genuinely does impact supply? Onyx CEO Greg Newman joins Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu for an update on how Brent Futures have played out since Christmas. Greg, Martha and Vincent discuss the impact macro news events have on the market. From the Boeing malfunction to the recent earthquake in Japan, Greg sheds light on how huge events like this can be surprisingly bearish in the long term. However the Red Sea attacks are a different story, which the team will discuss. We give an update on the refinery margins which are showing slight improvement week-on-week. Vincent sums it up by saying it’s a shit time to trade! The Trade Idea of the week is to short the February C4 ENT vs. C3 LST. Make sure to leave a comment on our YouTube page, we’d love to hear from you. If you’d like to connect with Greg, Martha or Vincent on LinkedIn, click on the links below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Jump straight to the chapter you’re interested in: 02.33: Brent Futures 04.33: Googling Oil/Big Oil Headlines 14.26: Macro News Events on the Oil Market 27.00: Refinery Margins 33.15: Trade Idea of the week | |||
| 16 Jan 2024 | Stopping Out Determining the Price | S6 E02 | 00:44:20 | |
Supply and demand modelling is no longer enough to accurately determine market value. The recent market has been a perfect illustration of this in key differentials in the oil market, which have been driven by stop outs, pushing market prices against the fundamental consensus. Example discussed are the North Sea differential rally in prompt DFLs, Brent Dubai's move against market consensus and propane volatility in US contracts. Onyx Capital Group CEO joins Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu (dialing in from our Singapore office), to review the latest week of trading in oil, how things are playing out and what to watch going forward. Flat price surpassed $80/bbl on Friday on the back of Red Sea tensions, as the UK and US launched attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen. The current market sentiment for Brent Dubai suggests a noticeable shift towards buying, with significant momentum on the buy side. Martha expresses confidence in the likelihood of this trend holding, despite attempts to sell off in recent days, there is evident support at current levels. Large market players are actively seeking to buy Brent Dubai, as indicated by changing flows. Refinery margins are exhibiting strength across various products, particularly in EBOB and gasoil. Despite a total purchase of 292 kbbls by trade houses in June, July, August, September, and Q3, Q3 prices are historically high, while Q1 prices are comparatively less robust. The market is influenced by factors such as the Dangote refinery's impact and Pemex's anticipated boost in fuel production by 1.05mbpd, with RBOB crack low and increased U.S. exports to Australia and Mozambique. In our macro-economic headlines to watch. The team discusses; U.S. OIS curve (overnight index swap) is pricing 163 basis points of cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Inflation is grinding lower towards target rates and is no longer striking fear in the markets. In fact China is now clearly in deflation! Manufacturing globally is weak, German industrial production just had its 6th consecutive monthly decline (down 4.8% YoY) and 14% below its pre-pandemic peak. You can watch our Trade Idea of the week here: https://youtu.be/g1_AIsKe4-s If you’d like to connect with Greg, Martha or Vincent on LinkedIn, click on the links below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 19 Jan 2024 | Onyx Leadership: Jonah Van Bourg S6 | E03 | 00:52:15 | |
Onyx Director Jonah Van Bourg discusses his extremely eventful career thus far with CEO Greg Newman. From how his experience working at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, to working on the floor on Lehman Brother's floor, in the midst of the biggest bankruptcy in American history. | |||
| 23 Jan 2024 | Searching for Macro Themes | S6 E04 | 00:40:22 | |
Brent futures saw sub $77/bbl levels on 17 Jan after poor economic data from China saw the GDP rise by 5.2% in Q4 compared to the forecast of 5.3%. CFTC data for the week to Jan 16, (in Brent futures) saw a continuation of a more bullish sentiment, with bullish speculators adding almost 15mbbls (+5%) of length, whilst their bearish counterparts decreased their short positioning by 1.5mbbls (-2%). In WTI, a more bearish stance was seen. Bulls removed over 5mbbls (-2.5%) of long positions, whilst bears added to their short positionings by over 13mbbls (12%). As for the changes in the refinery margin, the strength seen in the Dated Brent market has been overshadowed by refined product strength allowing margins to rally. Gasoline was lifted by good summer buying and the prompt being bought by refiners points to expected future strength. European gasoil rallied from heavy selling in EW (down past -$35) due to the Red Sea turmoil resulting in AG Europe-bound loadings dropping 55% M-o-M. The headline to watch right now is Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), whose shares plunged as the CFO was put on “Administrative Leave” pending ongoing investigation regarding certain accounting practices and procedures. As such the release of Q4 earnings is delayed. In our Googling Oil segment the research team and Greg discuss the recent Ukraine drone attack and Russia becoming the biggest oil supplier in 2023. Our Trade Idea comes from Head of Learning and Development, James Brodie who says to watch the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates and moving away from negative rates, which could result in a massive boost. He suggests to go long Yen, especially against the pound and the euro. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ AND if you're interested in learning about what the upcoming US Election could mean for the price of oil, please make sure to check out the latest episode of our Onyx Leadership Series here: Onyx Leadership: Jonah Van Bourg S6 | E03 Chapters for this episode are: | |||
| 30 Jan 2024 | Lead and Lag: Predicting the Futures | S6 E05 | 00:30:51 | |
Brent futures spent most of the week with prices typically above $80 per barrel, recording a second week of gains. Geopolitical risk premiums strengthened, and positive economic news from the US, along with promising developments in China, contributed to the positive sentiment. As for refinery margins, it's been a positive week, with products driving the rally and support seen from every product down the barrel. Greg reflects on the paradox of the Dated Brent market, pivotal in global crude oil pricing, being potentially net bearish, yet experiencing upward price momentum due to financial inflows. Brent spreads, and speculative forces stemming from the Red Sea, are prompting the question of whether the current upward momentum can be sustained and if the North Sea market, for instance, might be mistaken. If you'd like to see our trade idea of the week, check it out here: https://youtu.be/MDqmKHSXWKU And you can now subscribe to our newsletter by clicking on the link below: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7148228862387109888
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| 06 Feb 2024 | Refinery Profitability | S6 E06 | 00:49:31 | |
Brent futures softened from over $80 last week, to stabalise around $78/bbl on Feb 6. Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Middle East with ongoing conflicts and ceasefire talks proving elusive. Despite positive economic indicators, market enthusiasm appears lacking, reflected in WTI spreads in contango and a rangebound regime across the crude complex. As for the refinery margin change; the weakness in crude oil is impacting refined products. The Dated Brent market, with a lack of interest in expiry and resistance observed in DFLs amid increased March-loading barrels and Asia refinery maintenance. For macro economic news and the one to watch, we've seen continued weakness in inflation, as yesterday European PPI has come down 10.6% year on year. However, the big news is in the US payroll data from last week. Although the market was looking for weakness, some were shocked to find the US unemployment rate fell from 3.8 to 3.7%. Martha's trade idea is to buy the Q3 Gasnap (European Gasoline EBOB, sell European naphtha). If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 13 Feb 2024 | Testing Market Capacity | S6 E07 | 00:32:26 | |
Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum. We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance refinery maintenance with market demand to sustain current price levels. In macroeconomic news, the Saudi government has instructed Aramco to halt expansion initiatives, signalling a shift towards green energy. The hosts also discuss conflicting actions from Australia's top oil and gas producer. Martha's trade idea this week is to buy the FEI (Asian benchmark) propane contract and sell the CP (Saudi Arabia) propane contract, as the CP levels have dropped recently. This may lead to profit-taking, while there is support for the FEI with potential poor liquidity, making it a short-term contrarian trade with good upside. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 20 Feb 2024 | Pressure on the End User | S6 E08 | 00:23:27 | |
It's been a bullish week for crude flat price this week and has been supported above $80 levels, reaching a peak of $85.50, which is seemingly finding resistance at current levels. However, overall market sentiment has been quite bullish from both hedge funds and speculators alike. Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 23 Feb 2024 | Jorge Montepeque The Man Who Creates The Oil Price | S6 E09 | 00:50:33 | |
In a special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Jorge Montepeque, the new Managing Director - Benchmarking. Jorge, an industry legend, pioneered oil pricing by introducing benchmarks, revolutionising communication across different sites worldwide. When Greg first started trading, most traders relied on Yahoo Messenger for precise time stamps. Then came Jorge, reinventing communication, making it faster and introducing a platform enabling traders to communicate down to the millisecond—a game-changer for the oil trading world. With over forty years of experience, Jorge is an icon and a pivotal figure in the oil industry. Do not miss this must-watch episode. | |||
| 27 Feb 2024 | IE Week in Focus | S6 E10 | 00:26:21 | |
It's been another rangebound, albeit less bullish week in Brent futures. Crude prices came off from around $84/bbl. down to the low 80s, where it found some support on Monday. As for the refinery margin change, Dated Brent is significantly weaker. There were some significant moves in gasoline and gasoil. The latter saw a real weakness in prices amid poor European demand. Martha also looked into American refinery margins, which is also weak across the whole gasoil complex and heating oil especially. James Brodie weighs in for macro news headlines. The big news for last week was that the Nvidia earnings soared and 34 years later, while Nikkei finally broke above its 1989 high. Off the back of these huge Nvidia earnings, Greg raises an important discussion regarding the tech bubble. If everyone is in wait and see mode, regarding the tech bubble, does that not tell you that a recession is unlikely? Martha wraps up the podcast with her fuel oil trade idea, to sell the Apr/May 3.5% spread. There are both fundamental and financial flows factors with the fuel oil stock levels in the ARA being relatively high. Make sure to follow us on X, as Vincent will be posting about the Brent expiry. Follow us @Onyx__Edge. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 05 Mar 2024 | Highway to the Danger Zone | S6 E11 | 00:35:44 | |
Oil markets are all of a sudden kicking into gear, and it seems we are now on that highway to the danger zone. With every market indicator of the underlying physical market strong, and forward derivative prices indicating that this will last for some time, the only thing left to truly perform is the outright price. Will this carry through? And will the danger zone of inflation, demand destruction and overextension grip oil markets once again? It’s been a bullish week in the crude market, which continued into a very strong Brent expiry for April futures. On the flat price side, it’s still a bullish tone but remaining range bound. Refinery margins have seen a stark contrast week-on-week between the European and Asian refinery margins, which has come from a divergence in the gasoline market between the two regions. The one to watch this week is China, as its announced its aim for an economic growth rate of 5% in 2024,and CPI around 3% - which aims to add 12 million urban jobs in 2024. And on our Googling Oil segment, the main story to follow this week is OPEC members extending production cuts in bid to boost oil price. Finally, Vincent’s trade idea for this week is to short April or May Sing 0.5% crack. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 13 Mar 2024 | Buy East, Sell West | S6 E12 | 00:30:23 | |
Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium - a price level where everyone seems happy. Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB experienced a $2/bbl rally this week, returning to strength. The key global macro movers this week are gold and the S&P 500, which continue to make all-time highs. We should also be watching for a stronger US dollar - as European and UK data continue to weaken, while the U.S. economy remains resilient. In our "Googling Oil" segment, Greg, James and Vincent discuss further Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure ahead of Russia's presidential election this weekend. The other key headline this week is the OPEC and IEA being at their most divided in their oil demand forecast since at least 2008. Vincent's trade idea this week is Long Apr/May Brent/Dubai box. If you'd like to see Finlay Gordan's trade idea for this week, click here: https://youtu.be/we45Tv-hIWw If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 20 Mar 2024 | Bullish Oil Futures, Bullish Refinery Margins | S6 E13 | 00:39:49 | |
With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode. Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data. Looking to the refinery margin, there was strength across all products, outweighing the rally in the flat price last week, so the refinery margin saw a small increase. James Brodie weighs in to comment on macro-economic trends. The bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time in seventeen years. US inflation is not coming down as quickly as it is in Europe, and the CPI is still just above 3%. This presents a slight concern for the Fed. Vincent leads our "Googling Oil" segment, and the team discuss the big news stories of the week, including recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and how they were able rebuild and be up and running in a day. The trade idea this week is to buy the Q2’24 NWE Jet diff. If you would like a further explanation of the trade idea for this week, you can watch it here: https://youtu.be/oozORbGjZsA If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 21 Mar 2024 | Trading…. A Young Person's Game with Jasper Bird | S6 E 14 | 00:35:48 | |
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird. Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality. They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry. With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his journey into trading, his evolution within the company, and the resilient mindset necessary not only to survive but to thrive in the fast-paced world of trading and beyond. #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #trading #finance #derivatives #investing #advice #careers #leadership | |||
| 26 Mar 2024 | A Topsy-Turvy Market | S6 E15 | 00:36:54 | |
Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels. Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for correction as demand dynamics evolve. Looking to the more macro side of things, James Brodie discusses the sudden dovish stance adopted by central banks and SNB's surprising 25bp cut to the cautious rhetoric of the Fed and Bank of England regarding bond/OIS curves. In our 'Googling Oil' segment, Greg, Vincent, Martha, and James explore intriguing headlines, including the milestone of the USA surpassing all nations in oil and gas production and Ukraine's strategic use of long-range strike drones against Russia's oil industry. Vincent presents a compelling trade idea: shorting the summer crack, which Greg dubbed 'The Widow Maker.' Tune in as Greg, Martha, Vincent and James dissect, analyse, and forecast the fascinating developments in the oil market landscape. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 02 Apr 2024 | Finally, the Economy! | S6 E16 | 00:34:35 | |
Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East? Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. However, product stagnation ahead of Easter also weighed down on the margin. EBOB and gasoil have experienced declines week-on-week, signalling potential shifts in market dynamics. Macro news headlines paint a picture of resilience and growth, with manufacturing data showing surprising strength from both China and the U.S. The inflation outlook remains stable, with no concerns stemming from recent U.S. PCE data. Additionally, the US Dollar and gold continue their upward trajectory, while equities display a remarkable bullish trend reminiscent of 1989. Key data releases to watch out for this week include European CPI on Wednesday and U.S. payrolls on Friday, which could offer valuable insights into future market movements. In our "Googling Oil" segment the team focus on Mexico's decision to halt some oil exports, which could significantly impact the global market. Pemex has cancelled contracts to supply its flagship Maya crude oil to refiners in the US, Europe, and Asia. This strategic move aims to prioritize domestic gasoline and diesel production ahead of the June 2 presidential election. With Mexico typically exporting around 600,000 barrels a day of Maya crude oil, this decision reverberates across the oil landscape, highlighting the intricate balance between geopolitical strategies and market dynamics. The Trade Idea for this week is to buy the May/Jun DFL roll. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/CVHxPCROTV0 If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 11 Apr 2024 | Risks to risk parity | S6 E17 | 00:42:36 | |
Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day. Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape. The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Chapters for this episode are: | |||
| 16 Apr 2024 | A Debrief on Israel and Iran | S6 E18 | 00:32:32 | |
Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players. The refinery margins have increased week on week, but mostly due to a weakened dated crude market. Gasoline continues to rally after a bit of a dip last week. The European gasoline market seems stubbornly long. James’ one to watch this week is the continued dollar strength and higher U.S. yields - which are breaking equity market momentum, with gold making continued new all-time highs. Aside from the major story of the Iran retaliation attack on Israel, in our Googling Oil segment, the team discus the new regulations in Nigeria which will require oil producers to sell crude to domestic refineries. Martha’s trade idea this week is propane - selling the LST/FEI in May. Jorge also shares his trade idea, the WTI to Dubai Spread - which Jorge thinks will widen as Dubai crude powers ahead in Asia. You can watch the LST/FEI trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8sKmB_ymD8I If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Chapters for this episode are: | |||
| 23 Apr 2024 | Macro Mondays with James Brodie | 00:23:16 | |
Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. | |||
| 23 Apr 2024 | De-risking in Preparation for Escalation | S6 E19 | 00:43:39 | |
Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/ Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ | |||
| 29 Apr 2024 | Macro Mondays | A Booming Indian Economy | 00:15:44 | |
Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. | |||
| 30 Apr 2024 | What the OFAC is Going on? | S6 E20 | 00:37:43 | |
Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline. Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasoline, naphtha, and 3.5% barges. This week, James focuses on mixed U.S. data, featuring weak GDP headlines but strong inflation components, potentially posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. Powell's press conference at this week's Fed meeting will be closely watched. In the "Googling Oil" segment, the prevailing headline revolves around oil pricing falling on Monday, signalling the possibility of Israel and Hamas engaging in ceasefire talks this week. Vincent's trade idea this week is to go short on the Q3 EBOB crack. You can find more details here: https://youtu.be/5CEovEVKGhI If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 06 May 2024 | Macro Mondays | Weaker Data and Higher Inflation | 00:14:50 | |
Welcome back to the third episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data. He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There's no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend off the employment data. Geopolitical tensions also appear to be diminishing so keep an eye on the U.S. 2 year yields, the dollar index , the S&P and gold for key moves. If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ | |||
| 08 May 2024 | Will OPEC Drain the Washout? | S6 E21 | 00:39:05 | |
If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/ Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened slightly week-on-week, but that’s on the basis of weaker crude competing against even weaker products. It’s a self-fulfilling cycle where weaker margins are dampening demand - which reinforces bearish sentiment for structure and spreads. Our Macro Economic specialist, James Brodie, explains that CPI, PPI, Employment Cost Index and Unit Labour Costs have all come in above expectations, while employment data is suddenly deteriorating. This is the worst case for the Federal Reserve, whose chair Jeremy Powell last week revealed that he thinks it's unlikely the next rate move in the U.S. will be a hike. The trade idea this week is to sell the European Naphtha crack in the prompt June contract. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
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| 13 May 2024 | Macro Mondays | Watch out for CPI! | 00:19:07 | |
Welcome back to Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. | |||
| 14 May 2024 | Roaring OPEC | S6 E 22 | 00:30:39 | |
Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul, saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut. Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasoline stocks (900kbbls) and refinery utilisation is up 1% . The big Macro news headlines have kicked off with Roaring Kitty returning to X (formally Twitter) yesterday, which has already resulted in a 70% rally for GameStop. The key data this week is U.S CPI expected to drop from 3.5% YoY to 3.4%. Reaction is critical, with 10yr at key levels. 4.40% is key support. Onto Googling Oil, the major headlines discussed this week are; Russia finding a huge gas and oil reserve in British Antarctic territory and EU potentially calling time on Russian LNG imports. The trade idea for this week is; Short Q3 380 east west. | |||
| 20 May 2024 | Macro Mondays | Asset Prices Making All-Time Highs. But Where's the Risk? | 00:17:34 | |
On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs. Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing. The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday. If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie | |||
| 21 May 2024 | Something Funky Going On | S6 E23 | 00:41:15 | |
Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the first weekly gain in 3 weeks. Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength. James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production, dragging US yields lower. Elsewhere, the big movers of the week were in the commodity markets, with copper, gold, even orange juice at all-time highs. Silver though was the big mover, breaking key resistance at $30 and now targeting all time highs of $49.8. Nickel, tin, zinc, aluminium..... are all surging higher as well. The team also discuss the big shale oil story coming out of the US regarding a wave of class action lawsuits, after regulators claim the industry conspired to curb production. The trade idea this week is buy Long Jun/Jul DFL.
Chapters for this episode are: | |||
| 23 May 2024 | Onyx Leadership | Taking a Company Supersonic … Advice from a CFO | 01:02:26 | |
Group Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman sits down with Group Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Chen to discuss the importance of people, leadership, planning, debt, investment and risk in scaling a business from a start up to a supersonic company.
Greg and Andrew, both experts in their fields, dive into the psychology of what motivates individuals in the workplace and how comparison can be the thief of joy. They reflect on their leadership style and how their managers from their formative career years had a profound effect on their career and management style now.
As core member's of the c-suite for Onyx Capital Group, the pair share the decisions and learnings they take from every financial and business decision they make on behalf of Onyx Capital Group. | |||
| 27 May 2024 | Macro Mondays | Boom or Bust? | 00:20:19 | |
On today's show, James focuses on the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which has pushed yields higher. He also discusses the growing concerns around employment, the booming Indian economy, weakening UKL data, and unfortunate timing with the election looming. Some charts and trade ideas that James discusses include NVIDIA, Nasdaq, silver, copper, and USDJPY. If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ | |||
| 29 May 2024 | Taking Advantage of Upticks and Optics | S6 E25 | 00:59:58 | |
Brent Futures have been volatile and rangebound this week, dropping to around $81/bbl and supported again over $84/bbl. With the OPEC meeting next week (and being held online), there's been conversation that Russia has overproduced oil output, but will be correcting lower after not adhering to the April quota due to over production. This audit will be used to update production baselines. Biden announced he was releasing a million barrels of gasoline from the northeast gasoline supply reserve ahead of July 4th. In reality, this has been planned for a long time and isn't reflective of the optics he has been given. Both sides are claiming that he's falsely pushing down the price. While Biden claims it will help with inflation, it was actually a bipartisan bill that was passed years ago, and it was actually Trump who wanted to sell this stockpile originally. The team ask the question: Is this just wasting money? The team discuss the latest impact of recent world events like the Singapore Airlines turbulence death, the impact on people's psyches, and in turn if that has an impact on the market. They dive into the real estate market, where more houses are being listed for sale in the US - which looks like a result of rising unemployment rates. They explore how different demographics look at property and discuss whether young Brits believe it's even possible to buy a home. Macro Specialist James Brodie explains the massive complacency in the market this week. We've gone from one extreme to another. He discusses the VIX and volatility. Equity volatility is at four-year lows, interest rate volumes at one-year lows, and all the action is in the commodity markets. With unemployment rising and retail sales falling aggressively, the Fed is unlikely to hike. The trade idea for this week is to buy the July Gaspnap. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Chapters for this episode are: | |||
| 03 Jun 2024 | Macro Mondays | Risks include Nvidia, Gamestop, Rate Cuts, and Volatility | 00:16:59 | |
NVIDIA and GameStop are back in the news headlines this week. On Monday morning we saw GameStop up 85% after hours in the overnight trading session. Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, came out on Sunday night on his social media accounts to reveal that he owns $115.7 million of GameStop equity. NVIDIA is now 40% of the S&P growth this year. The Nasdaq had an interesting price movement on Friday, with key support at 18,4014. The market tried to break below on Friday, but in the last 20 minutes of the day saw aggressive buying. Last week, the VIX index traded down to four-year lows and interest rate volatility (MOVE Index) traded down to one-year lows. James expects volatility to pick up, which would mean more aggressive moves - meaning Nvidia and Tech stocks in general would be the prime for a sell-off.
Looking at property, in yet another attempt to support the falling house market in China, the Shandong province lowered the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans and also removed the lower limit on loan interest rates. Over to Japan, though, it’s a different issue with 9,000000 empty properties. The key data to look out for this week is US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada, US Service PMI and Australian GDP. On Thursday, it's the ECB meeting. And then the big one on Friday is the US payrolls data. | |||
| 04 Jun 2024 | OPEC Sending Us Into a Bearish Regime? | S6 E26 | 00:46:52 | |
Brent Futures have been extremely bearish following US markets open, dropping to $77/bbl Monday morning. It’s all about OPEC, as the meeting over the weekend saw existing voluntary cuts extended into September 2024. This move hinted at OPEC's willingness to bring back barrels to the market. However, doubts remain about compliance from certain members and future global demand growth. Refinery margins are overall weak, with low US gasoline demand and overall US weakness permeating the European market. However, the market has seen decent buying in Q3 at these lower levels. CFTC data for the week to May 21 showed money managers removed around 5.8mbbls of length (-7.4%) and added over 5.5mbbls (+23%) to their short positions in gasoil futures. The team analyses looks at US fundamentals. With factors including potential hurricanes, heatwaves, and exports potentially tightening supply, WTI prices could decline relative to Brent. Martha's trade idea for this week - to short July WTI/Brent swaps - ties in. You can learn more about the trade idea here: https://youtu.be/S8GcUsnEMpg If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ | |||
| 10 Jun 2024 | Macro Mondays | Strong USD, European Elections and Roaring Kitty's live stream | 00:26:58 | |
Macro-Economic Specialist James Brodie is joined by Onyx Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss what's been happening in the markets, including Friday's US pay roll data, The European elections over the weekend and the big moves in gold. James and Harry will also discuss the Trade of the week, EURUSD and GameStop. Friday's US payroll data saw 272,000 jobs created last month, much higher than expect the expected 180,000 jobs, which took the market by surprise, resulting in yields being ramped much higher and the US dollar strengthening aggressively. The European elections took place this weekend, with Identity & Democracy winning 58 seats,( with a gain of 9 seats) and the EPP with 186 seats, (gaining 10 seats). Whilst the Socialists and Democrats have reduced their vote share along with the Greens, the centre right has managed to maintain a decent amount. With immigration sky-rocketing since Brexit, Harry and James answer the question; is this discontent with immigration or government? Roaring Kitty is also back in the news this week after resurfacing on a live stream watched by hundreds of thousands on Friday, and James and Harry discuss his influence on the market. On to the chart of the week, the EURUSD broker lower again. The market reacted strongly to the dollar after strong US payrolls, with the biggest two day move lower since September. If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: James Brodie https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Harry Nedeljkovic | |||
| 11 Jun 2024 | The Market Flipped on a Sixpence | S6 E27 | 00:35:31 | |
Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning. The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. The market still looks less confident about gasoline, though. The summer demand looks like it's manifesting in jet fuel in Asia, due to strong aviation demand - which is soaring as travel returns back to pre-Covid levels. Looking to the macro market, James and Greg discuss why unemployment has ticked up 4.4%. As demand is falling, people aren't spending as much, and lower-income households are hurting. Full-time work is declining, and people with multiple part time jobs are on the rise. This isn't a great sign for the economy. The trade idea for this week is long US propane. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 17 Jun 2024 | Macro Mondays | Weak US Data but a Hawkish Federal Reserve | 00:38:41 | |
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie discusses last week's weaker than expected US economic data, as well as the more hawkish Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Research Analyst, Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in on the up-coming French election, in addition to Argentina and especially their economic situation. Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian joins Macro Mondays for the first time to talk through how the recent data out of China may come to impact oil demand. | |||
| 18 Jun 2024 | How to Price Before a Reprice? | S6 E 28 | 00:51:18 | |
We saw a very strong performance in crudethis week, with Brent futures already up to $84/bbl. The team discuss market dynamics, emphasizing the shift from deep contango to backwardation in crude structure. After a recent positional reset, the market appears more balanced, with summer demand looking healthy. The team go on to discuss the history of repricing in the oil markets, with Greg noting that big market moves often come from unexpected events. For example: recession expectations in the past were priced in, which actually ended up preventing their occurrence. Similar dynamics apply to oil markets, with Q3 summer bullish expectations unfulfilled due to extreme positioning, highlighting that major moves only happen with significant shifts in market sentiment and the largest profits often come from low-volatility markets with high prices. Looking to the refinery margin, the crude flat price has increased, supporting the products outright but European gasoline remains a cause for concern. Cracks and spreads have had a massive sell-off over the past two weeks after loads of stop-outs in the European gasoline market. It has created a snowball effect, as players have become quite hands-off in Europe, in particular. The unexpected sell-offs are moving the market in an unexpected (by some) way into summer driving season. Macro specialist James Brodie says this week the market is reacting to lower CPI, PPI and a very weak consumer sentiment reading. However the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised the market with a hawkish statement, but the bond market disagrees, and is pricing in more aggressive rate cuts by the central bank. | |||
| 20 Jun 2024 | OPEC vs IEA… A Debate on Demand | 00:53:31 | |
For a special episode of World of Oil Derivatives, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Managing Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian for a detailed discussion regarding global oil demand. Greg, Jorge, and Harry delve into the differing perspectives on oil demand from two major agencies, the IEA and OPEC, focusing on their projections for both short and long-term global oil demand growth. The discussion highlights the growing contentiousness between the IEA and OPEC,highlighted by recent comments from OPEC's Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. He criticized the IEA, claiming that the “IEA’s narratives for oil are dangerous, especially for consumers, and could lead to unprecedented volatility.” Central to the controversy is over when oil demand will peak, plateau, and eventually decline, and at what rate? The debate has significant implications for future investments in the oil sector to meet increasing demand. The debate is highly charged, taking place amidst the broader context of energy transition and the goal of achieving net-zero emission target. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/ Harry Tchilinguirian; https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/
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| 24 Jun 2024 | Macro Mondays | NVIDIA… The Chip-Maker | 00:48:31 | |
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian sits down with Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss the latest macroeconomic news, risks, and trends. They analyse recent Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, which shows China's industrial production printing below expectations in May, at 5.6% year-on-year, while at 3.7%, retail sales beat expectations. They also discuss US industrial output, which rose 0.9% in May, and take a deep dive into recent US housing and building permit statistics. The UK is also considered, with CPI, retail sales, and PMI data for June all examined. They have an update on various central bank policy rate decisions, the Euro area’s struggles and on NVIDIA's relentless rise, given it briefly became the world’s largest company by market cap last week. Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in for an update on Europe’s underperforming but potentially hopeful tech sector, the upcoming French legislative election, and finally South Korea’s worsening demographic emergency. Harry Tchilinguirian then explains a potential commodity-related trade idea. If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: Harry Tchilinguirian; https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/ Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/ | |||
| 26 Jun 2024 | Why are They Buying? | S6 E 29 | 00:27:02 | |
We saw extremely rangebound prices in crude this week, with the September Brent futures contract hovering between $84/bbl and $85/bbl. The team discuss the nature of the oil market, what's going on with Dated Brent, volatility, US jet fuel demand, and the upcoming US election debate. Not to mention, Jorge "The Regulator" weighs in on the current state of benchmarks and conspiracy theories. Refinery margins have been relatively rangebound, although a weakened crude flat price supported margins this past week. In contrast to previous weeks' performances, the distillates market was lacklustre. Meanwhile, gasoline saw better support on stronger demand indicators. Although refinery margins were not the driver for the recent strength in Dated Brent, this may have spurred some refiners who were originally waiting for lower prices to now make last-minute cargo purchases. We discuss these trade ideas in detail in our weekly Onyx Alpha report. For further information on where you can access this report, kindly contact our sales team: sales@onyxcapitaladvisory.com You can find Onyx's benchmark publication, "The Officials," here: https://www.onyxhub.co/ If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Onyx Hub: https://www.onyxhub.co/ | |||
| 27 Jun 2024 | Scaling up with Onyx Co-Founder & Group Chief Investment Officer Omar Kayaam | S6 E 30 | 00:46:24 | |
Group Chief Investment Officer and Onyx Co-Founder Omar Kayaam joins Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Newman to reflect on how they've scaled the business over the last year. They discuss the big moves that have propelled the business, including hiring experts, developing the technology arm of Onyx, buying out investors, expanding to new offices, and more. Eight years after founding the company, Omar and Greg address how they finally found the right team to navigate the evolving industry and carve a path to a democratised oil market. Tune in to hear their insights and their vision for the future of Onyx. If you'd like to connect with Greg or Omar on LinkedIn, click on the links below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ You can find Greg and Omar's podcast from 2023 here: https://youtu.be/3iF48lAxZqI | |||
| 28 Jun 2024 | ONYX WHITEPAPER: How Valid is CFTC COT Data in Analysing Trader Positioning in Oil Derivatives? | 00:54:52 | |
For a special podcast episode, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Senior Commercial Associate Remona Tefaj and Business Development Associate Melis Varol for a discussion regarding CFTC COT reports and the significance of third party data sets. Greg, Remona, and Melis delve into the scope of the information provided by the CFTC, how using supplemental third-party data can provide an expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole oil market, and the sales team's rebuttals in their journey of introducing Onyx's data set. You can find the whitepaper here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/free-cftc-cot-white-paper/ If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: | |||
| 01 Jul 2024 | Macro Mondays | Aviation Shares Plummet and French Election Impact | 00:33:51 | |
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie and Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss the impact of the first round of results of the French election, along with the upcoming UK and US elections and their economic impacts. James and Harry also cover the Japanese Yen, European inflation, and Guyana's economic growth due to Exxon and partners' investment to develop Starbroek oil and gas field. Finally, they cover Ferrari's growing stock and Volkswagon's $5 billion investment in Rivian. The key data to look out for this week is: If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: #macroeconomics #economics #stocks #stockmarket #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #podcast #trading #energy #inflation #employment #opec #oilswaps #election #USelection #Trump #Biden #Debate #FrenchElection #Macron #LePen #Ferrari #Rivian | |||
| 02 Jul 2024 | What's Manufacturing Got To Do With It? | S6 E33 | 00:29:32 | |
Brent crude prices have had a strong week, continuing to rally at $87/bbl. The latest CFTC data indicates that the market has become balanced and neutral in positioning. This presents an opportunity for bullish investors to take action, with legacy positions and new entrants supporting this trend. However, macroeconomic news doesn't fully support this bullish outlook. Economic data from China and the US is weak, with China's manufacturing sector contracting for the second consecutive month and service activity dropping to a five-month low. Additionally, central banks intervening in the bond market as yields hit all-time lows signal potential global economic challenges. Regarding refinery margins, Martha raises a question: how far into the summer driving season must we go before the market reacts? Currently, refinery margins have increased by about a dollar, with crude and product prices also rising. Gasoline prices remain unstable and sideways, suggesting the potential for shocks given the unusually low-price levels and poor liquidity. This instability might lead to gappy price action. Last week, RBOB saw the highest level of short positions by money managers in five years. The team also discusses the big story of the week: Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) has initiated an investigation, demanding answers from the CEOs of 18 oil producers regarding potential collusion with OPEC to artificially raise prices for American consumers and increase federal government costs. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/ Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are: 0:00 Welcome 0:28 Brent Futures 1:50 Macro market news 6:21 Refinery margins & products 15:14 China & US economic data 19:24 "Googling oil:" world oil news 23:22 Poll results 26:08 Global elections & the markets 29:20 Outro | |||
| 08 Jul 2024 | Macro Mondays | Impact of Elections in the UK and France | 00:26:48 | |
Today, macro specialist James Brodie and research analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss Sunday’s French legislative election second round and Thursday’s UK General Election followed by their respective impacts on global markets and geopolitics. James and Harry also cover US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data for June, FOMC minutes, German and French industrial production, and perhaps most significantly, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. The key data to look out for this week is: Tuesday 09 July: Fed Chair Powell testifies Wednesday 10 July: OPEC monthly report, China CPI & PPI Thursday 11 July: US CPI, UK GDP & industrial production Friday 12 July: US PPI, Uni Michigan consumer sentiment If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: James Brodie; https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/ #macroeconomics #economics #stocks #stockmarket #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #podcast #trading #energy #inflation #employment #opec #oilswaps #election #UKelection #Labour #Conservatives #FrenchElection #Macron #LePen | |||
| 09 Jul 2024 | Searching for Signals | S6 E34 | 00:41:24 | |
Brent futures climbed towards $88 before settling around $85.50. Money managers increased their long positions in Brent for the third consecutive week, indicating bullish sentiment European M1 refinery margins softened in the week but remained profitable at $6.40/bbl. Products saw weakness across the barrel but the upcoming hurricane season and potential disruption to US infrastructure raise questions about short-term price movements. The team also discusses Hurricane Beryl's impact on US energy infrastructure and challenges facing the biofuels industry with stalling growth and collapsing profitability. If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below: Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/ Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/ | |||