This podcast takes a deep dive into the market moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find more information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri joins to discuss inflation and what that means for the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team. 

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we discuss the Fed, the economy, and the situation in the UK. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we look and the ugly, the bad, and the good of what is happening in the financial world. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we look at the recent release of the employment number and what that means for the economy and the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we look at what is scaring the investors in relation to the market, the CPI, and what Jamie Dimon is predicting. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we touch on the hard and soft data available today from the FED as well earning season so far. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, Libby Cantrill joins us to talk about the upcoming elections and the impact they could have for the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we talk about some things that have been surprising in the market this year, what could happen after the midterm elections, and the FED’s recent increase in interest rates. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we cover the rise in stocks, crypto, inflation, and what the FED is up to. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we sit down with Author Jamie Hopkins to discuss his new book Find Your Freedom: Financial Planning for a Life on Purpose. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today’s episode, we give our takes on some well know things happening in the investment world. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

When good news is bad news. This week Ryan and Sonu talk about the latest economic data released and how the Fed might react, the US dollar and why it matters, and some potential positive signs from the market. Oh, and '80s hair bands, of course! 🤘🎸

 Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In today's episode, we sit down and talk commodities with Invesco's Commodity Strategist, Kathy Kriskey. So much valuable information crammed into these 30 minutes. Kathy is amazing! 🤯

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In this episode, hosts Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are joined by the CEO of Pearl Institute, Phil Pearlman, whose goal is to help advisors unlock their freedom through health planning and performance training.

Phil is an expert on the connection between health and wealth planning and has been closely involved with the advisor community for many years. Through his advice, Phil encourages advisors to prioritize their health and mental and spiritual well-being and to become role models for their clients.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

There was a lot of pain in the market for 2022, and now a lot of talk about the "impending recession" of 2023. We aren't so sure it will play out that way. 

Join us to hear why.

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In this episode Ryan and Sonu talk about how nothing has been “normal” since the beginning of 2020, and their outlook on the world for 2023. The economy and life is on the edge of normal.

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

Markets and McMuffins, what could be better? In this episode, Ryan and Sonu take the podcast on the road, to Omaha, Nebraska, to be exact, to channel one of the greats... Or at least eat like him. Buffett, Inflation, and automation are just a few topics on the menu. 

Join us to hear what unfolds.

Facts vs. Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

Today, Ryan and Sonu discuss the strong finish for stocks and bonds in January and follow it up with their expectations for the economy for the rest of the year.

"So goes January, so goes the year." 

Facts vs. Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

In this week's episode of 'Facts vs. Feelings,' Ryan and Sonu discuss how the odds of an economic soft landing have significantly increased. They delve into the data and the Federal Reserve's role, and explain why this is not just a temporary bear market recovery.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

In this 21st episode of Carson's Facts versus Feelings, Ryan and Sonu dive into Fed Lasagna, an ironic mix of wild market sentiment and conflicting economic data, as they attempt to cut through the noise and focus on what really matters.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

After seeing the market soar despite a recession, Ed Clissold, an experienced CFA who employs a disciplined, four-bucket approach to investing to train his clients to identify market opportunities and challenge the prevailing wisdom.

You will learn:
1. How has technology changed the stock market over the last decade.
2. What strategies investors can use to manage their emotions and stay disciplined during volatile markets.
3. What insights can be gained by analyzing sentiment indicators in the stock market.

Ed Clissold is a market strategist at Ned Davis Research with over 20 years of experience studying markets. He is a CFA and has a deep understanding of technical analysis and sentiment indicators.

In today's episode Ryan and Sonu discuss the hot economy since Groundhog Day. They dive into Core PCE Inflation, high yield interest rates and historical market performance of March and April.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Why Invest in Stocks When Bond Yields are High?  "TINA, or “There is No Alternative,” was the theme of the last decade as interest rates were close to zero. Yields on long-term bonds weren’t much above that. So stocks were the “only alternative” if someone wanted reasonable returns.
But now it looks like there is an alternative, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. CREAM, or “Cash Rules Everything Around Me,” looks attractive enough to replace TINA.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu focus on Silicon Valley Bank, what it all means, and how the Fed's aggressive interest-rate-hiking policy collided with a bank's business strategy. Tune in and stay updated! 

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, and Director of Investment Platform, Sonu Varghese, welcome special guest Professor Jeremy Siegel. He answers several of their burning questions and even shares some insights on March Madness. 

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu provide their insights on the current banking crisis updates, the significance of gold, and the role of the Federal Reserve and chairwoman Janet Yellen in today's episode.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Today, Ryan and Sonu are joined by a very special guest, Sam Ro. Sam shares his insights and experiences from his career so far, and finally puts an end to Ryan's long-awaited question: how do you pronounce TKer? Together, they discuss the latest trends in the industry and share their perspectives on the future of their field. Sam's visit is a valuable opportunity for the hosts and their listeners, as they gain a rare glimpse into the mind of one of the most successful professionals in their industry.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

In today’s episode, Ryan and Sonu return from Spring Break to talk about recent economic data. The focus of the discussion is the positive monthly Jobs Employment Number, and they also delve into some uncommon indicators that suggest the ongoing stock market rally may sustain.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu review the positive indicators currently happening in relation to recession discussions, as well as inflation and market sentiment, in today’s episode.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

On today's episode, Ryan and Sonu talk about how dull things have been in the past week. They also review earnings and some of the projects Sonu has collaborated on with our partners at Wisdom Tree. Additionally, they will touch on the housing market, the economy, and briefly discuss the stock market.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu are joined by CFRA's Sam Stovall for a discussion on the current state of the markets. In between sharing market insights, Sam lightens the mood with some of his typical humor.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu discuss the economy in today's episode and address the two most pressing questions they are currently receiving from Carson Partners.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Join Ryan and Sonu on stage at Carson Grouo’s Partner Summit where they share their insights on macro, the Fed, the Carson Investment Research Team, and more. You won’t want to miss this special episode!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

In this episode, Ryan and Sonu are joined by a familiar guest, Libby Cantrill from PIMCO, to discuss the current state of the debt ceiling and take a brief look at the 2024 election.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Tune in to this episode, live from Carson Group's Partner Summit as Ryan and Sonu engage in an enlightening conversation with Ron Carson. They delve into Ron's background, exploring his journey and beginnings, and provide insights into the current state of affairs. Don't pass up the opportunity to catch this captivating discussion!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

It's impossible to encounter the question, "What did you do today that brought you joy?" without Larry Sprung immediately coming to mind. In the latest episode, hosts Ryan and Sonu engage in a captivating conversation with Larry, delving into topics such as his partnership with Carson, the exciting release of his new book, and a multitude of other fascinating subjects. Larry's presence and his ability to evoke joy are truly unparalleled. The dynamic exchange with him in today's episode reminds us of the power of authentic connection and the happiness it can bring.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

In today's episode, Ryan and Sonu explore stocks, the economy, and the Fed. During the episode, they touch upon the popular TV series Succession, but fret not if you haven't watched it yet! They kindly provide a heads-up, allowing you to skip ahead and avoid any potential spoilers.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ready for this week's market updates?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the recent Fed decision, its impact on the market, and general markets update. They cover inflation, retail sales, and statistics on the housing market. Additionally, they touch on the importance of diversifying your portfolio and being cautious about chasing shiny objects.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent Fed decision, projections for the economy, and the impact on the market
• An explanation of core inflation, the impact of energy, food, and vehicles, and the role of housing in the consumer price index
• An analysis of retail sales data, including auto sales and building materials, and its implications for consumer spending
• An explanation of the difference between headline and core inflation and how consumers experience inflation in their daily lives
• The recent positive housing data, including a 22% increase in housing starts in May and a 5% increase in permits data
• The recent strength of the stock market
• The mid-year outlook and potential gains in the stock market for the second half of the year
• The idea of diversifying investments outside the US, including mid and small-cap stocks, and sectors like energy and industrials
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Curious about the current state of the stock and housing market and what's coming up for the second half of the year?

Get up to date with the current market updates!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explain the difference between hard and soft economic data and why it's important to look at both to get a better understanding of the economy. Ryan and Sonu also touch on the impact of Harry Markowitz on the investment industry, the potential for a strong July rally, and the current state of the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The difference between soft data and hard data
• Harry Markowitz and his impact on the industry through formalizing diversification and the return versus risk framework
• The possibility of a continuation of the summer rally in the second half of the year, citing historical data and momentum
• The valuations in the S&P500 — with a focus on the tech sector
• The importance of housing in the economy and how it is showing early cycle signals
• How housing has historically led recessions and how it took away from GDP for eight quarters in a row
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Despite being traditionally male-dominated, the finance industry is undergoing a significant shift as women make remarkable progress and break down barriers.

Today, we speak with a prominent contributor at Carson Group about her experiences in the financial world!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Jessica Golson, Senior Vice President, Investments and Trading at Carson Group. She shares her experiences as a woman in finance and her role overseeing Carson Investment Research's investment and trading teams. Additionally, they explore the evolution of the advisor role, the importance of tax planning, and Carson Group's core values of community.

Jessica discusses: 

• Her role in overseeing the investment team, investment platform, and trading team at Carson Investment Research
• A conversation about being a woman in the finance industry
• The changes in advisor roles over the years and how Carson Group supports its partners
• The various aspects of investment beyond portfolio management, including tax planning and funding retirement or education
• The importance of having support and education for advisors in making investment decisions and providing solutions to clients
• The sense of community and collaboration among advisors at Carson Group
• The importance of asking questions and not waiting for a certain role or position to suggest a change in the workplace
• And more!

Connect with Jessica Golson: 

• LinkedIn: Jessica Golson

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Jessica Golson received a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of Nebraska Omaha, where she majored in Finance, Banking, and Investment Science, and minored in Management. In 2012, she received a Masters of Investment Management and Financial Analysis from Creighton University. She currently holds FINRA Series 7 and 66 security licenses.

She brings over 10 years of industry experience striving to help advisors succeed. Since starting in the industry as an advisor she has since held influential roles in Trading, Performance, and Management. In her previous positions, she sought out opportunities for operational efficiencies and acted as a catalyst of change; improving many of the processes and procedures.

Outside of work, Jessica soaks up every second she can with her husband Terrance, and their three amazing children, Wyatt, Jacob, and Adalynn.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

As we approach the midpoint of the year, it's crucial to evaluate the current condition of the stock market and the overall economy.

What can we anticipate in the second half of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak about the mid-year outlook for the stock market and the economy. They highlight positive performance and surprises, leading to a bullish outlook. They delve into the labor market, the Federal Reserve's decisions, and concerns like US-China relations and the semiconductor industry.

Sonu & Ryan discuss: 

• The unexpected rise and strong performance of the NASDAQ, particularly in May, with mention of NVIDIA's earnings report
• The outlook for stock gains and the potential for reaching all-time highs
• The performance and potential of developed international markets
• The state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's role in avoiding a recession
• Inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's stance on raising rates
• Potential worries that could disrupt the stock market, including the relationship between China and the United States
• The impact of geopolitical risk on inflation and how disruptions can affect the economy
• The stock market forecast for the year and the importance of grounding investment decisions in historical evidence
• And more!

Resources:

• Putting Theory Into Action with Jessica Golson, CIPM (Ep. 41)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Navigating investment options can be overwhelming.

That is why the financial world requires careful decision-making, disciplined processes, and diversification.

Today we speak with someone who knows this perfectly.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Investments. Meb talks about investment portfolios, ETFs, and the challenges of money management, highlighting the importance of focusing on the process rather than the glamor of investing. Additionally, Meb gives a valuable message to young people starting in their careers and investing and the importance of diversifying globally.

Meb discusses: 

• The difference between managing money and the business of money management
• The criteria for launching new funds and the importance of offering something different in the market
• The significance of incorporating both dividends and net buybacks in evaluating shareholder yield
• An analysis of the current market conditions with a significant spread between cheap and expensive stocks
• His advice to youngsters who want to start in the investment world and have a successful career
• Some of the top investment books, including "The Millionaire Next Door" and "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
• The importance of diversifying asset allocation globally, rather than being concentrated in the US market
• And more!

Resources:

• The Idea Farm
• Meb Faber - Website

Connect with Meb Faber: 

• LinkedIn: Meb Faber
• Twitter: Meb Faber
• Cambria Investments

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

As the financial markets remain on the rise and unpredictable...

It is critical to seek guidance and insights from experts who have a complete understanding of market dynamics which is crucial for investors and enthusiasts alike.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Tom Lee, Managing Partner & Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC. They chat about Tom's perspective on the bull market and how he stays informed about the markets. They also talk about international perspectives, demographics, and credit in market growth. Additionally, they touch on inflation, the Fed's actions, and the importance of mentors.

Tom discusses: 

• What he looks at first thing in the morning regarding the markets
• The reasons behind his bullishness at the start of the year
• How regional biases impact market outlooks in Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• His motivation for leaving JP Morgan and starting his own research company
• How demographics and credit play a role in understanding growth and market trends
• The importance of maintaining a sense of humor in the unpredictable market
• The potential trajectory of inflation and the Fed's possible actions in the future
• The influential mentors in his career and the importance of finding a good mentor
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up here for a 30-day free trial and 10% off a future Fundstrat subscription

Connect with Tom Lee: 

• LinkedIn: Tom Lee
• Fundstrat - Website

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served most recently as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy, and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charter holder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

After five consecutive months of gains on the S&P 500, what are the projections for the stock market?

Find out what the economy has been up to this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese chat about the latest economic updates, including the recent GDP report, positive indicators in the economy, the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and the stock market. They highlight the surprising strength of the economy, positive trends in consumer spending and decreasing inflation, and the potential for the stock market to continue rising.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent GDP report, highlighting the better-than-expected growth of 2.4% in the second quarter
• How inflation has decreased and wage growth has come down
• The impressive GDP growth expected in the third quarter
• Positive earnings reports from companies
• The stock market projection for August
• The recent performance and potential upside of energy and industrial stocks
• The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike
• Predictions of no more rate hikes due to expected decrease in core inflation, vehicle prices, and housing rental inflation
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs Feelings Ep. 44 - Talking About the Bull Market with Tom Lee 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

One topic that has garnered attention this week is Fitch's decision to cut the US credit rating. 

This move has had implications for investments, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

Want to learn more?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explore the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch, its implications, and market reaction. Ryan and Sonu also touch on gridlock in Washington, macro policy performance, and the positive outlook on the economy. Additionally, they analyze the current state of the labor market and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The Fitch downgrade of US debt and the reasons behind it
• The improvement in the debt to GDP ratio and the concerns about governance quality in Washington
• The Fed's credibility and their response to the highest inflation in 40 years
• The factors contributing to the rise in treasury yields and the impact of Fitch downgrading debt
• Various positive economic indicators
• Prime age employment population ratio: What you need to know about the low layoffs rates and strong hiring which indicate a tight labor market
• And more!

Resources:

• Excell Conference

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Macroeconomics is an all-encompassing, complex field, and it's critical to understand each of these large moving parts in order to analyze markets effectively. 

With the constantly changing fiscal policies, market indicators, and economic patterns, expert insights prove to be invaluable in guiding us through turbulent and unpredictable times.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Neil Dutta, Managing Director and Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research, to chat about macroeconomics and the current state of the economy. They explore topics such as recession risks, the impact of inventories on GDP, fiscal policy, and the limitations of indicators like PMIs. 

Neil discusses: 

• An overview of his career, his role at Renaissance Macro Research, and the three core macro verticals they cover
• The current state of the economy and the differing opinions on whether a recession is imminent
• How inventory restocking can contribute to economic growth and the potential positive feedback loop it creates
• The role of fiscal policy in shaping economic outlook
• The use of PMIs and other macro indicators in analyzing the market
• The concerns about the Fed prematurely declaring victory and the potential mispricing of the back end of the market
• And more!

Connect with Neil Dutta: 

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads the macroeconomic research efforts at Renaissance Macro Research, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. 

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with over 15 years of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

Do you feel like we’re in a recession? Well, the facts show us otherwise.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the current state of the economy, focusing on the importance of hard data in understanding economic trends. They discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, highlighting the significant increase in retail sales over the past three months. Ryan and Sonu also touch on how investment spending benefits productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, and the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Recent strong economic data in retail sales and auto production and why the economy is stronger than we thought
• The positive impact strong industrial production has had on the economy 
• Why auto production has been soaring even more than it was pre-pandemic 
• The impact investment spending has on productivity 
• The contrasting views between the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and other economic indicators, such as PMIs and consumer sentiment
• The relationship between bond yields and stock market performance
• The importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Sonu’s Daily Note about auto/industrial production?
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• Ned Davis Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Navigating the landscape of debt and finance requires an understanding of the myths and truths that shape our perception.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese debunk seven common myths related to debt and finance. They provide insights and analysis on topics such as credit card debt, student loans, bankruptcies, and excess savings. Additionally, they address the topic of rising interest rates and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discusses: 

• The concerns and perspective on the $1 trillion credit card debt and its relation to total assets
• The impact of student loan debt payments restarting and the potential effects on consumer spending
• The concept of excess savings during the pandemic and its potential depletion
• The recent decline in stock prices and sales for major retailers
• The increase in interest rates, specifically mortgage rates and credit card rates, and its implications for borrowers and savers
• The composition of US government debt and the ownership of that debt
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Ready for a special episode of Facts Vs. Feelings?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode of the podcast! They chat about the recent jobs report, highlighting the increase in jobs created and the slight rise in the unemployment rate. They also touch on economic indicators such as yields, wage growth, and the manufacturing sector.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• An analysis of the monthly jobs report, discussing the number of jobs created, unemployment rate, and the health of the labor market
• The slowdown in nominal GDP growth and the misconception of recession
• The growth in manufacturing jobs and the strength of consumption
• The vacancy ratio, its relation to supply and demand for labor, and the Fed's interest in lowering the ratio
• Their key takeaways for reaching 50 episodes 
• An explanation of why September is historically the worst month for the stock market
• The historical performance of the stock market in August and the expectation for September
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With global markets impacted by various factors, exploring diverse perspectives and ideas is essential for investors.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Carson’s Group Investment Research Team, Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, and Grant Engelbart, VP, Investment Strategist.

They discuss various topics related to investing, including the impact of US-China relations and the importance of considering other factors in portfolio construction. They also talk about the team dynamics at Carson Partners and the importance of being open to new ideas and perspectives in investing. Additionally, they emphasize the integration of investment and wealth management in financial planning and the advantages of working at Carson Partners.

They discuss:

• The impact of China's restrictions on Apple's revenue and the broader implications for US-China relations
• The growth potential of active ETFs and their impact on the market
• The need to be open to new ideas and perspectives in order to understand and navigate the complexities of the market
• The need to consider how different investment components fit together to achieve diversification
• The essential connection between investment and wealth management 
• The impact and accessibility of Carson Partners for advisors
• Their investment philosophy and how it has evolved over their career
• The recent disconnect between the US dollar and commodity prices, and the US's energy independence
• And more!

Connect with Barry Gilbert: 

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart: 

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Live from the Excell Conference in Nashville, this week we bring you incredible stories and valuable guests!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Paul Hickey, Co-Founder: Bespoke Investment Group and Bespoke Market Intel, Sam Ro, CFA, Founder of TKer.co, and Frank Cappelleri, Founder and President at CappThesis.  

They cover various topics, including the current state of the economy, technical analysis, market trends, inflation, and the impact of higher energy prices on the economy. They also share their experiences running their own companies and the importance of adapting to market feedback. 

Together, they discuss:

• The message of the market from a technical point of view, focusing on bullish patterns and low volatility
• The weak consumer sentiment and its correlation with presidential approval ratings and inflation
• The early days of their businesses, including not having basic supplies, going independent, and the importance of listening to the market 
• The performance of small caps and the factors affecting their movement
• Details about their companies and how they help investors and advisors
• Whether the economy is in an early cycle or heading towards a recession
• The need to know your time frame when trading and the benefits of being market agnostic
• And more!

Connect with Paul Hickey: 

• LinkedIn: Paul Hickey
• Bespoke Investment Group

Connect with Sam Ro: 

• LinkedIn: Sam Ro
• TKer by Sam Ro

Connect with Frank Cappelleri: 

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri
• CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Dive deep into the pulse of the economy with top experts!

In this special live edition episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Alejandra Grindal, Chief Economist at Ned Davis Research. Together, they dissect the influence of macroeconomics on investment choices, unravel the pandemic's effect on inflation, consumer confidence, and retail sales, and shed light on the profound influence of the global landscape, especially China, on the US.

They discuss: 

• The correlation between the stock market and the economy
• The impact of the pandemic on inflation and whether it will be a long-term or temporary effect
• Reasons behind the low productivity growth and its potential impact on long-term economic growth
• The importance of business investment for productivity
• How consumer indicators can be influenced by political polarization
• The importance of considering multiple indicators before making economic predictions
• The importance of the US economy and the impact of China
• And more!

Resources: 

• Website: Ned David Research
• LinkedIn: Ned Davis Research
• X: Ned Davis Research
• YouTube: Ned Davis Research

Connect with Alejandra Grindal: 

• LinkedIn: Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Alejandra Grindal is the Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group. She is the primary person in charge of the firm’s global economic outlook and is responsible for identifying global economic trends and themes, particularly as they relate to developments in equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets. In recent years Alejandra has been particularly focused on global demographics and labor force trends, China’s economic transition, and Japan’s lost decade. She joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006. 

Alejandra is a member of the National Association for Business Economics, where she is co-chair of the International Roundtable. She is a frequent speaker at professional and investment conferences and her work has been cited in the financial media. 

Prior to joining Ned Davis Research Group, Alejandra taught Microeconomics and Macroeconomics at Florida State University during her graduate studies and then worked as a full-time professor at Santa Fe College and Edison College. Alejandra also worked in the British Parliament as a research assistant, where she participated in policy and constituent research and campaign marketing.

Alejandra received her Masters degree in Economics and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics and International Affairs, with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa distinction, from Florida State University.

Fourth quarters are often crucial times for the economy and the markets as they capture the trends from previous quarters and set the tone for the next year. 

However, this year’s fourth quarter may be more uncertain and volatile than usual...

What can investors do to prepare for the potential challenges and opportunities ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese share their expectations for the fourth quarter, including the potential impact of a government shutdown. They also explore the historical performance of the stock market in Q4 and the strength of the dollar.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The impact of a government shutdown on the economy
• An analysis of the historical performance of the fourth quarter
• The strength of the economy and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more than anticipated
• The risk of an energy shock and how it can impact portfolios
• An analysis of the weakness of regional banks and its impact on small caps
• The recent personal consumption expenditures report, core inflation trends, income growth, and consumption levels
• The surprising increase in net wealth among the bottom 50% of income earners over the last three and a half years
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs. Feelings (Ep. 53) - Talking About the Economy with Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investing is a complex and uncertain activity that requires careful analysis, discipline, and patience. 

There are many factors that can influence the performance of different investment strategies, such as market conditions and investor preferences.

Today, we speak with a leading figure in the field.

In this special edition of the Facts Vs. Feelings podcast, recorded live at the Excell conference in Nashville, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management.

Together, they chat about investment management, the importance of understanding uncertainty in the market, and the need to learn from past mistakes. They also touch on topics such as market bubbles, momentum strategies, and the parallels between decision-making in sports and investing.

They discuss: 

• The challenge of quantifying investment strategies and determining if they align with clients' expectations
• A critical mistake made during the launch of his firm, AQR
• A definition of a bubble and examples of past bubbles in the market
• Cliff’s journey from considering law school to becoming a quantitative finance researcher, highlighting pivotal moments
• The challenges and misconceptions surrounding momentum investing
• Cliff’s research on the optimal time to pull a hockey goalie and how it relates to investment strategies
• The parallels between sports and investing
• And more!

Connect with Cliff Asness: 

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness
• X: Cliff Asness
• Website: AQR Capital Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest: 

Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. 

Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. 

Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, religions, and cultures.

At the same time, it is the scene of some of the most pressing geopolitical issues of our time. 

The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the prospects for peace, and the situation also presents opportunities and challenges for the global economy, particularly the oil markets. 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Matthew Gomoll, MBA, CEPA, CEP®️, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Carson Wealth. Matt shares his insights on the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine, including the potential implications for the region and the world. Ryan and Sonu also cover the impact of geopolitics on the stock market, inflation, and the economy, and the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.

They discuss: 

• Matt's background as a wealth advisor and former U.S. Army Special Forces officer
• The geographical and historical context of Israel's position in the Middle East and the ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Hamas
• The impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the markets
• Historical examples of how stock markets have performed in the aftermath of major geopolitical events
• How the US has become the largest producer of oil and its shift from being a net importer to a net exporter
• The concept of excess savings and its impact on the economy
• The performance of small caps and financials in the first year of a bull market and the potential outlook for 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up now to the 2023 Excell Represent Conference

Connect with Matthew Gomoll: 

• LinkedIn: Matthew Gomoll

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Matthew Gomoll has seen firsthand what a difference financial planning can make – not just for your wealth but for your life.

His passion is to truly help clients work towards their goals. Whether that is feeling comfortable to retire, preparing a business to sell, buying that vacation home you’ve always wanted, finally paying off that debt weighing you down, or caring for a loved one in old age, the measure of his success is when you do the things in life that are important to you.

His background as a Special Forces Officer gave me years of experience listening, identifying root issues, and communicating in terms that can be easily understood. Matthew's service has also instilled the values of integrity, duty, loyalty, and quick thinking under fire – skills and values he draws on every day as an advisor.

As a CERTIFIED EXIT PLANNING ADVISOR and CERTIFIED ESTATE PLANNER™, Matthew enjoys leading efforts on your behalf across a team of CPAs, attorneys, bankers, and other professionals to help you make the best decisions possible for your family or your business. He has specific experience in helping business owners grow the value of their business and position it for an eventual transition. Matthew also specializes in working with estate planning attorneys on all of the financial considerations for a family’s estate. 

The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, which has disrupted supply chains, boosted inflation, and strained fiscal and monetary policies.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment, and what are the implications for the bond market?

Today, we chat about this and more with a very special guest!

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese speak with Daniel Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO. They explore the current state of the economy, rising yields, and the future path of inflation. Dan also shares details about the role of PIMCO's advisory board and the value of bonds as diversifiers for stocks. Additionally, he talks about his experiences in the industry, his mentors, and his early experiences.

They discuss: 

• The main drivers behind the increase in yields
• Why the economy has remained strong despite the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve
• The factors influencing nominal bond yields
• The experience of taking over a large company
• The value in fixed income markets for long-term investors
• The role of bonds as a diversifier for stocks
• Concerns about companies with lower credit ratings facing challenges in borrowing and rolling over debt
• His early struggles in trading markets and the mentorship he received
• Why US treasuries are still considered a safe asset and how they can benefit from flight to quality flows during times of crisis
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Daniel Ivascyn is the Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO,and a managing director in the Newport Beach office [which office/company? Are we still talking PIMCO?]. He is lead portfolio manager for the firm’s income, credit hedge fund, and mortgage opportunistic strategies, and is also a portfolio manager for total return strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's Executive Committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013, and he was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame in 2019. Prior to joining PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments. He has 33 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College.

October 2023 proved to be a challenging month for the stock market. 

Various factors, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, earnings disappointments, and the Federal Reserve's policy, caused the market to suffer a decline in sentiment and confidence. 

What are the projections for the market's performance for the remainder of the year? 

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese talk about the recent market correction and its potential as a healthy adjustment. They explore how geopolitical risks may have influenced the market and remain optimistic about a year-end rally. Additionally, they speculate on the Federal Reserve's actions. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss:  

• The recent stock market correction, its causes, and the potential for a rebound 
• Previous bear markets and their impact on market returns 
• The resilience of the economy despite challenges like the pandemic 
• McDonald's positive earnings despite price increases, indicating consumer demand and potential economic signals 
• The US economy's growth post-pandemic with other countries 
• The better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth 
• The increase in government spending and defense spending 
• Three lesser-known positive indicators in the economy 
• The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the likelihood of a rate hike 
• And more! 

Resources: 

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47) 
• Talking Investing Lessons with Cliff Asness (Ep. 55) 
• Talking About the Bond Bear Market with Daniel Ivascyn (Ep. 57) 

Connect with Ryan Detrick:  

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick 

Connect with Sonu Varghese:  

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese 

A number of factors and causing the stock market to continue to experience high volatility, causing uncertainty for investors.

With October’s correction, are there signs of a market bottom? A potential rally?

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Carsons' Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese explain why stocks may have just bottomed, despite the market correction and bearish sentiment. Ryan and Sonu discuss their predictions about the S&P 500's gain after the midterm elections, as well as the key factors affecting the labor market, and the significance and economic impact of rising productivity.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent market rally, including the Fed's influence, positive job numbers, and historical data on stock market corrections
• The historical trend of the S&P 500 being up on average 14.1% one year after midterm elections
• How the Fed's rate hikes in the past affected the economy and how the current pause in rate hikes is different
• An analysis of the recent jobs report, its impact on interest rates and stock market, and the potential impact of strikes on the numbers
• The Sahm Rule and its potential implications for a recession
• An analysis of layoffs and their impact on the overall job market stability
• The significance of productivity and labor force growth in driving real economic growth
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates?

How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikes
• The positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocks
• Why small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest rates
• A potential year-end rally
• How rising interest rates negatively affected stocks
• The potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activity
• Optimism about opportunities in the market
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The Sahm Rule is an indicator that detects recessions in real-time based on changes in the unemployment rate. This rule was proposed by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and a leading expert on macroeconomic policy.

Today, we learn about the Sahm Rule and more!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Claudia Sahm, Independent Macroeconomist Consultant, about the Sahm Rule, unemployment, and the current economic landscape. They explore the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from Claudia's time at the Federal Reserve.

They discuss: 

• The origin of the Sahm Rule and its purpose as an indicator of recession based on the national unemployment rate
• The mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs
• The importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index 
• The current situation of low unemployment and strong wage growth
• Insights on the Federal Reserve's hiking and cutting policies
• The potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments
• The biggest macroeconomic surprise for 2024
• The poor sentiment despite the economy performing well
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Claudia Sahm: 

• LinkedIn: Claudia Sahm
• Twitter (X): @Claudia_Sahm
• Substack: Claudia Sahm

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Claudia Sahm is an economist, formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She is best known for the development of the Sahm Rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data indicator for identifying recessions.

The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors.

Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish
• The S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the market
• The broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rally
• Black Friday sales and statistics
• Consumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID times
• Why the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing market
• A speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. 

With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolio
• An analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a month
• Quotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investing
• The Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expected
• The strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectors
• An Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and households
• The sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trends
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties. 

One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.

What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbers
• The significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed worker
• The recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflation
• The current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the future
• Why small caps and mid-caps have been outperforming
• The positive stock market indicators
• An anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI report
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research. 

They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.

Together they discuss: 

• Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approach
• Whether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence ahead
• The chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this risk
• The political implications for the Fed's decision-making process
• The importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provide
• The historical market performance during presidential election years
• The potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocks
• Jerome Powell's performance as the Fed Chair
• The favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming year
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ed Clissold: 

• Twitter: @edclissold
• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold
• Ned Davis Research 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.

Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles. 

Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co. 

Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Market trends and potential outlook for 2024
• Factors contributing to the recent market rally
• Performance of small and mid-cap stocks
• The significance of small-cap industries
• Early versus late economic cycle indicators
• Impact of inflation and rate cuts on market performance
• Forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024
• Likelihood of positive returns in the market
• The importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?

How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gains
• The main drivers to avoid a recession
• The current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growth
• Productivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024
• The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economy
• The outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024
• The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and construction
• The market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election years
• The strength in small and mid-cap stocks
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.

How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil prices
• The recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on China
• The drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approval
• An analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the Fed
• The significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economy
• The male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levels
• The beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectors
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect?

Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's recent all-time highs and their implications for investors. They also cover the importance of manufacturing and high-tech industries for the economy. Additionally, they examine global economic factors, including China's influence on markets and the comparative strengths of the US economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Historical data on all-time highs, patterns of all-time highs over the years, and the likelihood of continued all-time highs
• Analysis of the increase in consumer confidence
• An analysis of retail sales
• The importance of manufacturing for the economy, including high-paying jobs and the impact on supply chains
• The positive trends in high-tech production and its impact on the economy
• The impact of Taiwan Semiconductor's growth on the semiconductor market and its implications for investors
• The impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock markets, particularly in Taiwan and China
• The impact of China's economic slowdown on global markets
• A Comparison of the growth rates of the US and China economies
• The potential momentum in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of GDP growth
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations. 

But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including the stock market's highs and the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting. They explore the significance of January's market performance, particularly in the financial sector, as an indicator for the year's outlook. Additionally, they cover the recent GDP report, offering insights into the economy's trajectory.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The positive implications of the market making new highs and its historical performance
• Potential factors that could disrupt the bullish market trajectory
• The significance of January performance and its potential impact on the market for the rest of the year
• Forecasting the Fed’s decision and its potential impact on the market
• The strong fourth quarter GDP growth, consumption, and investment spending, and its implications on the economy
• Comparison of nominal GDP growth in the US and China
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 
• Facts Vs. Feelings Ep. 69 - Can You Take Me Higher

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

From the stock market hitting all-time highs to new tax bills, positive economic indicators, and even the Super Bowl, there's a lot to keep track of when it comes to finance and investing this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, provide an in-depth analysis of current economic indicators, including jobs, productivity, and consumer confidence. They also touch on the potential for a stock market breather in February amidst election buzz. Additionally, they examine a new tax bill that could inject more money into the economy and give the stock market a boost. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The stock market hitting all-time highs, historical February performance, and potential market consolidation
• A bipartisan tax bill moving through Congress and its potential impact on business and individual finances
• An analysis of the Super Bowl indicator and its historical correlation with stock market performance
• The Fed's approach to potential rate cuts and market expectations
• A comparison of income-driven and credit-driven economic cycles and their impacts on the economy
• An analysis of the strong job market report and consumer confidence data
• The importance of productivity in driving positive economic outcomes 
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Bitcoin ETFs are one of the most anticipated and debated developments in the crypto space. 

What are the implications for the market, the economy, and crypto's future? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, speak with Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management about the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, offering a new investment avenue. They explore Bitcoin's role as an asset class or currency within traditional portfolios. Ryan and Sonu also cover the CPI data, its implications for inflation, and market expectations.

Listen to the episode to learn about:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
• The stock market’s performance, historical seasonality, and the likelihood of a market pullback
• The increase in household net worth and credit card debt, highlighting the overall financial situation of consumers
• The significance of Bitcoin ETF approval and its impact on financial advisors and investors
• Fund flows from GBTC to new Bitcoin ETFs
• Adding Bitcoin to portfolios, its historical returns, volatility, and the potential benefits for investors
• The likelihood of Ethereum ETFs
• Short-term and long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s value
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Matthew Hougan: 

• LinkedIn: Matthew Hougan
• X: Matt Hougan 
• Bitwise Asset Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Matt Hougan is a well-known expert in the fields of cryptocurrency, ETFs, and financial technology. He currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which is the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds and manages over $1.5 billion in assets.

Before this, he was the CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs. During his tenure, he played a key role in developing the world's first ETF data and analytics system, the most popular ETF media platform, and the world's largest ETF conference.

Matt serves as a board member for Equbot and is also a strategic advisor to several startups related to cryptocurrency and financial advising, such as Blockworks, Stratifi, and Exchange. He co-founded Advisor Circle, which is a product and content studio for the financial industry and also created the Futureproof Wealth Festival.

We are confronted with a key question as we deal with economic downshifts and market swings.

Does the latest data really reflect an economic slowdown?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze various indicators to assess the pace of economic growth, including market performance, inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and trends in retail sales and industrial production. Additionally, they explore the impact of younger generations on historical progress and provide insights into GDP growth and income trends, offering a comprehensive economic check-up.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• An analysis of the stock market's performance, focusing on small and mid-cap stocks
• Yearly market trends, corrections, and the Valentine's Day indicator
• Larry Summers' predictions and their significance in the market
• Different inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and their relevance in assessing inflation trends
• Recent inflation trends and the potential impact on Fed rate cuts and market expectations
• An analysis of retail sales and industrial production data
• The current economic slowdown and comparison with previous years
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 
• Join the Live on Leap Day with Facts vs Feelings!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Can NVIDIA sustain its remarkable earnings growth?

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the stock market's current state, with a special focus on NVIDIA's stellar earnings and the market's overall positioning. They discuss their strategic investment preferences, favoring sectors like industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare, while maintaining a neutral stance on technology and communications. They’re optimistic about the market's broad-based expansion and highlight the importance of managing volatility in their diverse portfolio offerings. Additionally, they share personal anecdotes from industry events and reflect on Warren Buffett's investment strategies, emphasizing the significance of buying at fair prices and the use of leverage.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• NVIDIA's impressive earnings and financial performance
• Analysis of market performance and concerns about the concentration of gains
• Overweight stance on equities and preference for sectors such as industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare
• Emphasis on sector rotation and overweight position in small and mid-cap stocks
• Optimism about broad-based expansion and GDP growth
• Importance of managing volatility in investment portfolios
• Importance of diversification in the bond market and defensive market strategies
• Warren Buffett's investment strategies and leverage utilization
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

As the race to the White House heats up, experts from the financial sector weigh in on the high-stakes implications of the upcoming presidential election.

Today on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the upcoming presidential election's potential effects on financial markets with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. They dissect the political landscape's influence on the markets and discuss Joe Biden's likelihood of remaining the Democratic nominee, comparing the current political climate to historical elections. Their conversation also covers pivotal issues that could sway key battleground states, and how re-election campaigns might influence stock market performance. Additionally, they touch on the role of Congress in fiscal policy and the implications for equity and bond markets.

Libby discusses:

• The impact of the upcoming presidential election on financial markets
• Significance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
• The government spending deficit and its implications
• The strength of the US economy
• Potential nominees for the presidential election
• Importance of state polling in critical states
• The impact fiscal policy has on stock market performance
• And more!
• The charitable entities and/or fundraising opportunities described herein are not endorsed by, or affiliated with CWM, LLC., or its affiliates. Our philanthropic interests are personal to us and are not reviewed, sponsored, or approved by CWM, LLC.

Resources:

• Donate to St. Judes - Events.stjude.org/leapday
• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Libby Cantrill: 

• PIMCO
• LinkedIn: Libby Cantrill

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Ms. Cantrill is head of U.S. public policy and a managing director in PIMCO's portfolio management group. In her role, she analyzes policy and political risk for the firm’s Investment Committee and leads U.S. policymaker engagement and policy strategy for the firm. She also works closely with PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. She has served as a rotating member of the firm’s Executive Committee and is a founding member of PIMCO Families and PIMCO Women. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2007, she served as a legislative aide in the House of Representatives and also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley. She has 19 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and received her undergraduate degree in economics from Brown University. Ms. Cantrill is a CFA charter holder and a regular contributor to Bloomberg and CNBC. She is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and sits on the boards of Covenant House New York and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA").

Libby Cantrill is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.

"Inflation is on a glide path lower." Neil Dutta from RenMac LLC shares his thoughts with us today on Facts vs Feelings, offering a fresh perspective on the current economic landscape. Despite a rocky start in January, there's a sense of optimism in the air.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group discuss economic insights with Neil Dutta, Head of Economics, RenMac LLC. Neil challenges the consensus on slowing economic growth and dismisses long and variable lags in monetary policy. The trio also explores the role of real-world indicators, the impact of commodity shocks, and the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy. They delve into entrepreneurship, productivity, and the potential of AI in investing.

Neil discusses: 

• The economy and fiscal responses
• Real-world indicators of economic activity
• Current market conditions and economic indicators
• Concerns about lack of positioning for upside risk scenarios
• Potential impact of AI on productivity and investing
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Live on Leap Day with Facts vs Feelings
• RenMac Podcast

Connect with Neil Dutta: 

• Renaissance Macro Research
• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads RenMac’s macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with 2 decades of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

In his spare time, Neil tries to entertain his three kids. When he is not at his desk, or with his kids, Neil is traveling somewhere with his wife, Puja. The couple currently resides in New Jersey after spending many years in Brooklyn.

The market’s changing trends and sentiments play a pivotal role in determining smart investment strategies. 

When we look at the massive rally the stock market has seen over the last few months, what is expected for the market in the near future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent market rally and the lack of a buying frenzy, despite all-time highs. They dive into specific stocks and market sentiment, reflecting on lessons from past financial crises and the importance of a long-term perspective. The conversation also covers job reports, interest rate, productivity, and more!

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The market rally, impact of magazine covers featuring bullish sentiments, and potential market trends
• The shift in market sentiment
• The performance of specific stocks like Nvidia, Super Micro, Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Apple
• An analysis of job productivity and the overall economic roundup
• Explaining the household survey and the unemployment rate
• An explanation of the strong productivity and its connection to the labor market
• Jerome Powell's speech and its impact on the market
• The relationship between gold, real interest rates, and storage costs, and its implications for investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

In a world where technology rapidly reshapes the landscape of industries, disruptive innovation stands at the forefront of this transformation. It challenges the status quo, propels economies forward, and redefines what is possible. 

As we dive into the minds of those who navigate these territories, we gain invaluable insights into the future of finance, investment, and the global economy.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, to explore the intricacies of disruptive innovation, the significance of technical analysis in investment strategies, and the potential underestimation of GDP growth due to technological advancements. Cathie Wood shares her bullish perspective on Bitcoin and emphasizes the importance of female leadership and coding in the future of finance.

Cathie discusses: 

• Her motivation for starting ARK Invest and the unique approach of the firm
• The significance of Tesla in the context of artificial intelligence and its competitive advantages
• Her perspective on GDP growth expectations and historical technology waves
• Her view on Bitcoin as a monetary revolution
• The possibility of introducing more ETFs
• Her insights on the future of coding
• Her advice for young women in finance, focusing on knowledge, performance measurement, and staying focused on long-term goals
• The rapid growth and future valuation of disruptive innovation in equity markets
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Cathie Wood: 

• LinkedIn: Cathie Wood
• X: Cathie Wood
• Website: ARK Invest

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Cathie Wood registered ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2014. With over 40 years of experience identifying and investing in innovation, Cathie founded ARK to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. Through an open approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies, Cathie believes that ARK can identify large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered around DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage, and blockchain technology. As Chief Investment Officer (“CIO”) and Portfolio Manager, Cathie led the development of ARK’s philosophy and investment approach and has ultimate responsibility for investment decisions.

Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed over $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded, which in 2000, managed approximately $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates LLC as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. 

Over the last 20 weeks, we have seen a huge rally in the stock market, led by tech stocks like Nvidia, which has led some to believe that we are in a bubble. 

Is that true?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into whether the market is truly in a bubble, suggesting that diversification is crucial as earnings growth shows resilience. The conversation also covers interest rates, Japan’s economy, inflation, and the impact of defense spending on the economy, hinting at potential future increases in defense investment.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Whether the current market situation is a bubble
• Japan's shift from negative interest rates to 0.1% and its connection to wage growth and inflation
• Prediction and analysis of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
• CPI, core inflation, shelter impact, and food inflation
• The low defense spending and its impact on the economy
• Strong labor market, income, and consumption
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

With the bull market we have had for several months now, it is normal for some to have doubts about its continuation. 

What can we expect for the markets? How is the economy doing and why should investors consider it?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's performance amidst economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy considerations. They navigate through employment growth, GDP, inflation, and inflation expectations, illuminating how these factors influence market sentiment and investor strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Updates on the stock market and what we can expect based on historical trends
• The resilience and growth of the job market contrary to skeptical viewpoints
• Debunking the myth of part-time employment dominating new job growth
• The performance of GDP and GDI and its implications for investors
• The nuances of inflation and its current trajectory in the economy
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Discover the transformative power of AI as we explore its impact on the tech industry and beyond!

This week on the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Dan Ives, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. 

They dive into the long-term implications of AI, the comparison between the current tech transformation and historical moments, and the potential of AI to drive unprecedented growth in various sectors.

Dan discusses:

• The significance of AI in driving the next wave of technological advancement, likening it to the internet’s inception
• The role of major tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft in leading the AI revolution and the potential for smaller, innovative companies to emerge as key players
• The impact of geopolitical factors on the tech industry, particularly in relation to Chinese tech companies and the U.S. market
• The importance of embracing different perspectives, including bearish views, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the tech market’s trajectory
• Blockchain technology and its potential use cases beyond cryptocurrency prices
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Dan Ives: 

• LinkedIn: Dan Ives
• X: Dan Ives

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Dan is a highly sought-after tech expert around the world, has been a keynote speaker across the US, Europe, and Asia, and regularly makes television appearances on networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and Fox News to provide commentary related to his technology expertise. Dan can be heard regularly doing radio on the tech sector for Bloomberg, ABC News, NPR, BBC, and other radio broadcasts throughout the US, Europe, and Asia. Dan is often cited globally by publications such as The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Investor’s Business Daily, Chicago Tribune, NY Post, Los Angeles Times, The Telegraph, San Francisco Chronicle, Time Magazine, The Washington Post, The Guardian, South China Morning Post, Barron’s, The Times of London, Financial Times, The Sydney Morning Herald, and New York Times, among many others.

Market volatility is a constant companion for investors, but understanding the underlying economic indicators can provide a clearer path forward.

How do we interpret the recent market pullback? What do the surging yields and inflation data tell us about the future economic outlook?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recent market pullback, the surge in yields, and what these indicators mean for the economy. They dive into the reasons behind the market’s behavior, the impact of inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s potential actions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent market pullback and its implications for investors
• The surge in bond yields and what it signals about economic growth expectations
• The role of inflation data in shaping market sentiment and Federal Reserve policies
• The potential long-term impact of current economic trends on market performance
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Staying on top of market trends and reviewing investment strategies is crucial for investors looking to optimize their portfolios.

What does May look like historically when we look back on previous years?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the current state of the market, exploring what to expect in May and the factors influencing its direction. Additionally, they touch on GDP, inflation, and the Fed.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The significance of the “Sell in May and go away” strategy and its relevance to the current market conditions
• The impact of GDP numbers on market perception and the reality behind these statistics
• The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation and anticipated interest rate policies.
• The role of consumer spending and investment in driving economic growth
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

The art of stock picking is a skill that can lead to significant rewards for those who master it.

How does one sift through the noise to identify undervalued gems? What does it take to maintain a long-term perspective in a market driven by short-term sentiments?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Eddy Elfenbein, Portfolio Manager, to explore his journey as a well-known stock picker. They dive into several topics, such as Eddy's approach to selecting stocks, his ETF, thoughts on macroeconomic trends, and the importance of being optimistic about the stock market.

Eddy discusses: 

• The thrill and challenges of being a true stock picker in an era dominated by passive investing
• The evolution of his career, from sharing stock picks on his blog to managing an ETF with a unique fulcrum fee structure
• The importance of simplifying complex market concepts and the dangers of Wall Street’s tendency to overcomplicate
• Insights into the macroeconomic picture, exploring employment rates, nominal GDP growth, the strength of the labor market, and interest rates
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Eddy Elfenbein: 

• X: Eddy Elfenbein
• Website: Crossing Wall Street

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Eddy Elfenbein is a passionate and dedicated individual who has devoted his career to helping investors navigate the stock market. 

He is the founder of a website, Crossing Wall Street, where he shares his unbiased views on the market.

Eddy believes in the power of the stock market as the most consistently successful way to make money over the long term. He is a firm advocate of the ‘buy and hold’ strategy, emphasizing the importance of investing in outstanding companies. 

His goal is to help people avoid common investing mistakes and become successful investors.

In addition to his website, Eddy also manages an Exchange Traded Fund (CWS) based on his Buy List.

Discover the vision and strategy behind Carson Group’s evolution as Burt White steps into the role of CEO!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Burt White, CEO at Carson Group, to explore the company’s direction under his leadership and the legacy of service excellence they aim to uphold.

Together they discuss: 

• Burt’s recent appointment as CEO and the seamless transition of leadership within Carson Group
• The concept of ‘Peak Service’ and how Carson Group is redefining service standards in the wealth management industry
• The importance of client-focused metrics and the impact of small business ethos on financial advice
• The dynamic partnership between Burt and Ron Carson, highlighting their complementary strengths and shared vision for the company
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Burt White: 

• LinkedIn: Burt White

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

A prominent voice and advocate for the independent advisor, Burt White is Chief Executive Officer at Carson Group. He helps steer the company’s strategic focus as a member of Carson’s executive board.

Drawing on decades of industry experience, Burt augments and elevates the firm’s opportunities for growth across corporate and investment strategies. He works with Carson’s investment team to build and deliver an investment ecosystem that drives growth for the firm’s 140+ partners, who collectively manage $30 billion in assets.

Burt’s excitement to redefine how our industry talks about wealth shines through in his work. He believes adaptability is a superpower and is highly motivated to innovate, pioneer and deliver forward-thinking industry thought-leadership.

Burt is passionate about making a meaningful impact in the lives of clients and advisors. Given that passion and his unique talent for client storytelling, he is well equipped to help our advisors best serve clients and generate new business.

Carson Group Founder and Chairman Ron Carson calls Burt a visionary in the industry who understands where the profession is and where it needs to go.

Before joining the Carson team, Burt served for 14 years as Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at LPL Financial. There, he fostered the development and evolution of LPL’s capabilities to effectively support advisor efficiency and growth.

As investors contemplate the significance of the Dow hitting 40,000, they are wondering about the market’s next moves.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat about the Dow reaching 40,000, the implications for investors, and the broader market sentiment. They also touch on the current state of inflation, analyzing recent reports and their implications for the economy. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The milestone of the Dow reaching 40,000 and its historical significance
• The role of earnings growth and market multiples in driving the recent market rally
• The importance of momentum and breadth in the current market rally
• The outlook for the stock market given the current economic indicators and historical trends
• The latest inflation reports and their impact on the market
• The Fed’s target for core PC inflation and market expectations
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Markets remain uncertain, but sitting down with top industry insiders can help clear the uncertainties.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree Asset Management. Together they engage in a rich conversation on the current state of global markets, the impact of inflation, tech stocks, the future of interest rates and more!

Jeremy discusses: 

• His journey with Professor Siegel and the inception of WisdomTree Asset Management
• The nuances of currency valuation and the implications for international investing
• Insights into the Japanese market, Warren Buffett’s investment strategies, and the potential of India as an investment destination
• The competitive landscape of China’s market and the tactical considerations for investors
• The potential for AI to revolutionize productivity and its long-term implications for the economy
• The importance of real-time data in understanding economic indicators like inflation and housing costs
• The influence of tech companies on market indices and the broader implications for sector-based investing
• The future of interest rates and the debate between market expectations and Federal Reserve projections
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Jeremy Schwartz: 

• LinkedIn: Jeremy Schwartz
• X: Jeremy Schwartz

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Jeremy Schwartz has served as our Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads WisdomTree’s investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity Indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset Model Portfolios. Jeremy joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding Deputy Director of Research to his responsibilities in February 2007. He served as Director of Research from October 2008 to October 2018 and as Global Head of Research from November 2018 to November 2021. Before joining WisdomTree, he was a head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and, in 2022, became his co-author on the sixth edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Jeremy is also co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper “What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500?” He received his B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Jeremy is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

As whispers of a slowing economy grow louder, investors strive for clarity.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dissect the current economic signals and their implications for investors. They explore the recent stock market reactions to political events and delve into the broader economic indicators that are fueling concerns about a potential slowdown.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Global stock market fluctuations related to elections in India and Mexico
• Understanding the role news plays in market volatility
• The strong performance of the stock market in May and the implications for the market in June
• Analysis of recent data on inflation and economic growth
• Insights into consumer behavior and its influence on market trends
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

It's always a great time to talk with a key individual in the industry, and today we are excited to welcome back Professor Jeremy Siegel!

In this special episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group sit down with Professor Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus & Chief Economist at Wisdomtree Asset Management, to explore topics ranging from the stock market to AI's impact on GDP and the Federal Reserve's role in shaping the economy. They uncover the timeless principles of investing and the potential of AI to revolutionize productivity and growth.

Together they cover: 

• Why stocks still offer attractive returns over bonds despite yields
• A comparison of today's tech stock valuations with the 2000s dot-com bubble
• Emotional vs. rational decision-making in bear markets.
• Potential long-term benefits of AI on GDP growth and investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 
• Professor Jeremy Siegel (Ep. 26)
• Talking About Markets and Life with Jeremy Schwartz (Ep. 87)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He graduated from Columbia University in 1967, received his Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1971, and spent one year as a National Science Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard University. 

Prof. Siegel taught for four years at the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago before joining the Wharton faculty in 1976. He has written and lectured extensively about the economy and financial markets, has appeared frequently on CNN, CNBC, NPR and others networks. He is a regular columnist for Kiplinger’s and Yahoo! Finance and has contributed articles to The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other national and international news media. 

Prof. Siegel served for 15 years as head of economics training at JP Morgan and is currently the academic director of the U.S. Securities Industry Institute. Prof. Siegel is the author of numerous professional articles and three books.

Prof. Siegel is currently the academic director of the U.S. Securities Industry Institute. He also currently serves as Senior Investment Strategy Advisor of WisdomTree Investments, Inc., consulting the firm on its proprietary stock indexes. He is also a member of the company’s board of directors.

Professor Jeremy Siegel is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.

What is the biggest mistake the Fed could potentially make? With inflation cooling off, is the change in the Fed’s behavior the right move?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dissect the Federal Reserve's recent decisions, the outlook for inflation, and why the economy's resilience might lead to unexpected outcomes. They dive into market breadth, the complexities of inflation data, and explore whether the Fed's continued hawkish stance is justified amid signs of softening inflation. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Market breadth and its impact on equity performance
• Inflation trends and underlying improvements in CPI and PPI data
• The Fed's recent hawkish signals and what they mean for future rate cuts
• Clarification on the so-called petrodollar issue and its implications
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

What drives the relentless ascent of stock prices, and how does a tech giant like Nvidia find itself at the forefront of market value?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into the current bull market and discuss potential future trends. 

They analyze Nvidia's astonishing rise, making it the most valuable company in the world for a brief moment, and what that means for other tech giants and the broader market. You'll gain insights into the first half of the year's stock performance and the economic indicators that are shaping investor sentiment. Special attention is given to the resilience of the U.S. economy, sector performances, and expectations for the year's second half.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Analysis of Nvidia's explosive growth and its impact on the stock market
• A review of first-half stock performance and what it implies for the second half of the year
• Key economic indicators, including industrial production and consumer spending
• Insights into the resilience of the U.S. economy and sector performances beyond tech
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Carson’s midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now!

How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their midyear outlook, discussing everything from the economy and inflation to the Fed's position and stock market expectations. You'll hear about their insights into the labor market's strength, inflation trends, and the possibility of future Fed rate cuts.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The current state and future outlook of the U.S. economy
• Recent trends in inflation and the Federal Reserve's next moves
• Stock market analysis and predictions for the second half of the year
• Portfolio strategies and the role of alternatives in today's financial landscape
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 
• Midyear Outlook '24: Eyes on The Prize
• Live Webinar Link - Tuesday, July 16 at 1pm CT

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Inflation is no longer the primary concern for investors, as market dynamics begin to shift and new opportunities arise.

How do recent inflation trends impact market behavior? What are the implications of the recent rally in small caps, and how do geopolitical events influence market reactions?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into recent market dynamics, focusing on how the rally in small caps and improving inflation data indicate fresh opportunities in the investment landscape. 

Listen as they discuss the implications of these movements, including the enhanced breadth in the stock market and the potential for a dovish shift from the Fed. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent incident involving Donald Trump and the market reaction
• The recent CPI data and the surprising improvements in inflation
• The extraordinary performance of small and midcap stocks
• What a rotational bull market means for different sectors
• The ongoing strength of the consumer backed by robust retail sales
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Market chaos and travel nightmares might seem unrelated, but they both reveal deeper systemic issues and opportunities.

How do travel disruptions reflect broader economic vulnerabilities? What historical parallels can we draw to understand current market trends?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss their recent travel challenges due to the massive IT outage, inflation data, and bullish market indicators. They also touch on the impact of President Biden stepping down from the elections, as well as consumer and industrial strength.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• How a major IT upgrade by CrowdStrike disrupted the world on Friday
• The implications of President Biden stepping down from the elections and historical parallels with 1968
• Upcoming PCE inflation data and its potential impact on future rate cuts
• Current bull market signals, highlighting significant rallies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 500
• Insights into economic data, inflation trends, and consumer behavior
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How do you balance rigorous research with open-mindedness in investing? How do you communicate effectively with clients during volatile times?

This week, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management, for an insightful discussion on market strategies and the nuances of value investing. 

Cliff shares his thoughts on the current state of value investing, explores the concept of 'value spread,' and even dips into some fun side topics.

They discuss: 

• The current state of value investing and why it has seen challenging periods
• Insights into how AQR navigates market anomalies
• The importance of communication and transparency with clients
• Fun personal insights into Cliff’s interests outside of finance, from hot sauce to superhero movies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Cliff Asness: 

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness
• X: Cliff Asness
• Website: AQR Capital Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest: 

Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. 

Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. 

Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in both. He received an M.B.A. with high honors and a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago, where he was Eugene Fama’s student and teaching assistant for two years.

How do you know when to stay the course or press the panic button during market volatility?

In this special episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Barry Gilbert, CFA®, Ph.D. Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, and Grant Engelbart CFA®, CAIA®, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group, for a discussion of this period of heightened market turmoil. 

The team dives into the recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's actions, the impact of weak job data on the Fed's interest rate decisions, and the ripple effects on both global and domestic markets. 

They discuss: 

• The Bank of Japan's unexpected moves and their impact on global markets
• Analysis of recent job data and what it means for future Fed rate cuts
• How current earnings reports reflect broader market conditions
• Diversification strategies to manage risk
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Barry Gilbert: 

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart: 

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Barry Gilbert:

Barry Gilbert is a Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist. As the VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, Barry Gilbert combines a background in thought leadership with a pragmatic and disciplined approach to portfolio management.

Barry holds a PhD in philosophy from Boston University, an MA from the Pennsylvania State University, and a BA from Haverford College. A former educator, he taught finance and economics in the MSF and MBA programs at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business. Prior to his career in asset management, Barry taught philosophy, the history of ideas, and writing and rhetoric at Harvard University, Trinity College and Boston University, and has served as a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, an international think tank in politics and economics.

About Grant Engelbart:

Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team.

Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry.

The month of August can often bring unexpected market volatility, and in this release we touch on the reasons behind it and how investors can stay prepared.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recurring phenomenon of August market volatility, discussing historical events that have shaken the markets during this seemingly unpredictable month. 

Joined by insights from various professionals, they analyze the reasons behind these patterns and offer valuable perspectives on how investors can navigate the choppy waters of late summer trading. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Historical market disruptions in August and their catalysts
• The psychology of market participants during low-volume periods
• The recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike
• The importance of having a diversified investment strategy to weather unexpected market shifts
• Key economic data, such as the unemployment rate and inflation expectations, and their impact on market outlook
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the financial industry, offering both exciting opportunities and significant challenges.

How is AI being integrated specifically into financial services? What are the potential risks and rewards of this technology?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Davi Fava, Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, for an in-depth conversation on artificial intelligence and its revolutionary impact on finance. Dani takes us through the intricate world of AI, explaining its incredible potential, addressing common fears, and highlighting how Carson Group is integrating this technology to better serve their clients.

Additionally to our conversation with Dani, Ryan and Sonu discuss the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of economic data on market trends, and the outlook for future market movements. They also touch on the role of small businesses and the Federal Reserve’s actions in shaping the economy.

Key topics discussed:

• New ways AI is transforming industries, especially finance
• Addressing fears and ethical considerations surrounding AI
• Practical applications of AI in daily financial operations and beyond
• The recent performance of the S&P 500, including the longest win streak in 20 years
• The impact of economic data, such as unemployment claims, on market trends
• The Federal Reserve’s actions and potential rate cuts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Davi Fava: 

• LinkedIn: Davi Fava

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dani Fava serves the pivotal role of Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, wielding over two decades of experience in wealth management to drive our strategic direction. Charged with enhancing the client experience through differentiated products and services, Dani’s leadership is instrumental in shaping innovative growth strategies and advancing the industry on financial advice and the use of AI.

Before joining Carson Group, Dani held influential positions at Envestnet and TD Ameritrade, where she spearheaded initiatives such as digital onboarding, strategic partnerships, and AI integration. Dani’s contributions include the development of advisor technologies like iRebal and the Model Market Center, reflecting her commitment to empowering advisors with cutting-edge tools and insights. Her impact and forward-thinking vision earned her a spot on FinTech Magazine’s Top 100 Women in FinTech (2021), InvestmentNews’ Women to Watch (2020), and ThinkAdvisor’s 2020 IA25, underscoring her status as a trailblazer in wealth management innovation.

In addition to her professional achievements, Dani is recognized for her thought leadership in the industry, often speaking at conferences and contributing to discussions on the future of financial technology. Dani also serves on the board of Language & Culture Worldwide (LCW), a culture consulting company. This work is an extension of her commitment to see more inclusion in the wealth management industry.

Understanding today’s economy requires a keen eye on labor markets, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal strategies.

How do these factors interplay to shape the financial landscape? What practical advice can help investors stay grounded amid market noise?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Together they discuss the dynamic nature of the global economy. You'll learn about the practical applications of charts and data in economic analysis, the impact of monetary policy on recession fears, and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Dr. Kelly also offers invaluable insights into the recent upward trends in productivity and the critical outlook for fiscal policy as we approach 2025.

They discuss: 

• The role of charts and data in economic storytelling
• The evolving state of the labor market and productivity
• Implications of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole comments
• Key fiscal policy changes and their potential impacts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Dr. David Kelly: 

• LinkedIn: David Kelly
• J.P Morgan Asset Management

Interested in hearing more from Dr. David Kelly? Subscribe to his shows wherever you listen to podcasts. 

• Notes on the Week Ahead - Published every Monday  
• Insights Now and Alternative Realities - Episodes available every Thursday  

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dr. David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. With over 20 years of experience, David provides valuable insight and perspective on the economy and markets to the institutional investor and financial advisor global communities.

David’s research focuses on investment implications of an evolving economic environment. He has written extensively on all aspects of the U.S. economy and his proprietary U.S. economic forecasting model helps shape his views on both the economic landscape and prospective asset class returns. He currently sits on JP Morgan Fund’s operating committee.

Throughout his career, David has developed a unique ability to explain complex economic and market issues in a language that financial professionals can use to communicate to their clients. He is a keynote speaker at many national investment conferences and a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other financial media outlets.

Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments. He has also served as a senior strategist/economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill.

David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.

Tune in for our centennial celebration!

In this special milestone episode, we’re celebrating the 100th episode of Facts vs Feelings with a live audience and special guest Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Together with hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, Tom discusses market outlooks, evolving investment strategies, and key economic trends shaping the future.

What’s next for the S&P 500? How do historical patterns and Fed actions impact today's market? And why should financial advisors pay close attention to demographic trends and Bitcoin? Tom Lee offers his bold predictions, including the path to S&P 15,000 and the evolving role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios.

They discuss: 

• Tom’s bold prediction: S&P 500 reaching 15,000 by 2030
• The impact of demographic trends on long-term market cycles
• Navigating short-term volatility, particularly in September and October
• Insights into Bitcoin’s potential and its role in a diversified portfolio
• The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and their influence on market outlook
• Strategies for small-cap stocks in a shifting economy
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Tom Lee: 

• X: Tom Lee
• Website: Fundstrat

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. 

Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy and Telecom Services. 

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charterholder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.