"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg (Turpentine)

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into the complexities of immigration, global economic development, and cultural stereotypes. Noah also shares insights from his upcoming book on reviving Japan's economy, examining strategies like innovation, reforming large corporations, and attracting foreign investments. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr NetSuite 📈 More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/102 WorkOS 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:46) Noah's book preview: Reviving Japan's Economy (02:02) Role of foreign investment in Japan (06:28) Prediction markets and economic bets (11:13) Developed vs. Developing economies (17:51) Sponsors: Weights & Biases | Netsuite (19:50) China's future economic challenges (24:30) Immigration and small town revitalization (27:27) Balaji’s analogy on immigration  (34:51) Balanced approach to immigration (39:28) Sponsor: WorkOs (40:30) Reviving midwest towns (44:13) Historical perspectives on immigration (51:35) Challenging scientific racism (01:01:37) Celebrating the average American (01:02:43) Wrap

This week Dan Romero joins Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg to discuss the overuse of the term “fascism,” what has led to the capabilities of China and the U.S., and much more. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – X / TWITTER: @dwr (Dan) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @moz_podcast (Moment of Zen) @TurpentineMedia – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) The word 'Fascist' (08:40) Economic transformation in China (13:04) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (16:10) Impacts of Trump's policies (19:07) The renegotiation of NAFTA (23:51) United States' withdrawal from the Middle East (27:22) SPONSORS: NETSUITE & MASTERCLASS (30:05) Asia & US foreign policy (41:46) The importance of focusing on Asia (48:20) U.S. production during World War II (50:14) China's production capabilities (51:26) Elon Musk & Henry Ford (54:09) Private markets for defense technology (55:38) Political unity & seriousness in war (58:57) US military budget and production (59:56) Industrial production in World War II (01:05:30) Trump's impact on China (01:09:16) Building alliances against China (01:14:48) Political unity and continuity in foreign policy

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of Kamala Harris as a presidential nominee, President Biden’s legacy, impact of COVID-19 on the economy and inflation, and the recent shifts in U.S. foreign relations and immigration policies. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:17) Kamala Harris's political prospects (05:04) Biden's legacy and presidential impact (11:07) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (13:42) COVID-19 vaccine release (16:03) Inflation and economic policies (22:53) Industrial policy and trade (28:48) Sponsor: WorkOs (29:49) Impact of Trump’s presidency (33:54) Trump vs. Biden (38:37) Afghanistan withdrawal and the role of Trump and Biden (46:24) Ukraine: Biden administration's response (54:32) Biden's big challenge on immigration (58:00) Wrap

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg continue their analysis of the Israel-Gaza war, against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical power, increasing conflicts, and the end of Pax Americana. They also discuss why Noah expects a China-Taiwan conflict, and the possibility of WWIII. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:50) Commentary on the Israel-Hamas war (03:41) The idea that wars end (07:34) The US has lost its unipolar moment (09:12) Should Israel double Gaza’s GDP to prevent violence? (15:05) Rich and aggressive?  (19:50) Sponsors: Daffy and NetSuite (22:02) Collapse of Pax Americana means countries feel safer declaring war (22:59) Hotspots for conflict: Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo (25:52) If China attacks Taiwan, what happens (29:32) How should international companies get ready? (31:12) Auditing supply chain (33:50) Recap of the tension between Taiwan and China (35:14) Strategic Ambiguity (38:11) Other key players in the Taiwan-China conflict (47:10) The Europeanization of the Ukraine war (50:17) We have nukes in Germany (51:03) Comparing Obama/Trump/Biden policies (53:37) What we’re actually doing vs the illusion of what we’re doing with Iran (54:26) How should the government get ready? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listeners' questions in rapid fire format, over topics such as the global reserve currency, fair taxation, wealth redistribution, education reform, healthcare, US manufacturing, how to revitalize cities, and more. Thanks to all our listeners who continue to write in with big meaty questions! This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co _ SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONIC Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 to https://Beehiiv.com and use code “MOZ” for 20% off your first three months. 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify Apple _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:53) What if the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency? (04:50) Fair taxation (08:20) Level of redistribution in the US (10:30) Lowering inequality by increasing economic growth (18:26) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic (20:26) Education reform (30:07) Fixing rising costs in healthcare (34:12) Limitations of UBI (39:09) Massive gap between US and China’s manufacturing capacity (46:25) US potential gateway to Africa (54:28) Impact of foreign aid (59:20) Revitalizing small US cities (01:04:58) Wrap

In episode 8 of ECON 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the factors brewing up a major crisis for China’s economy, and what this means for the US and other international powers. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/turpentine We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:37) Noah’s observations from his trip to Japan (03:03) Chinese Economic Carnage (04:09) Who is affected? (04:59) How will falling resource prices affect inflation? (14:12) China’s upcoming recession (16:41) China’s building investments need to stop (20:12) China’s paradox of thrift (20:57) China’s boomer republican leaders (21:39) What can China’s growth look like from here? (27:11) What are China’s options for allaying the unrest? (28:44) Extend and Pretend (29:26) Balaji was wrong about China as diplomatic power (33:18) China owns a Sri Lankan city now (34:04) When Noah was most bullish on China’s future: the Hu Jintao era (36:33) Xi JinPing as Stalin; Steve Ballmer (40:00) The revolution of rising expectations theory in American  (44:52) Spelling out our biggest fears about China (47:23) Successes in recent alliances: Japan and Korea alliances, India, Vietnam, (51:00) What are we watching for next? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the evolution and challenges of urban development in American cities, particularly the rise and fall of blue cities like San Francisco and New York, while exploring historical trends, fiscal policies, and socio-political dynamics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/69fa9439-ace9-43c3-9a96-9876a7e440bc — RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg — SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Kyla Scanlon, creator, writer, analyst, and author of new book “In this Economy?" They discuss the vibecession, the housing crisis, leader fatigue, and the impact of the economy on political polarization and the age of austerity. The conversation also covers the impact of Trump's economic policies, the risk of hyperinflation, and the potential for war with China. Crush your 2024 goals and learn a new language with Babbel - get 60% off at Babbel.com/econ102 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj  -- Recommended Podcast: The Riff with Byrne Hobart Byrne Hobart, the writer of The Diff, is revered in Silicon Valley. You can get an hour with him each week. See for yourself how his thinking can upgrade yours. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at Babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Kyla Scanlon: https://kylascanlon.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Understanding economic misconceptions (02:27) Vibecession (03:36) Interest rates and inflation debate (08:05) Generational wealth and housing (15:06) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (17:41) Monopolization of land and housing (22:55) Speculation and financial nihilism (28:40) Political influence on economic perception (36:44) Economic polarization and bifurcation (37:12) The Age of Austerity (41:44) Trump's economic policies and potential impact (50:34) Global elections and geopolitical fragmentation (58:10) Comparing Trump to global leaders (59:55) Identifying the biggest risks amidst inflation (01:06:20) Wrap

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the factors contributing to rising grocery prices and the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment, as well as debunking misconceptions about inflation. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Why are your groceries still so expensive?" on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-are-your-groceries-still-so-expensive – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:58) Episode preview (03:00) The impact of inflation on consumer sentiment (07:08) Factors of inflation (13:52) The role of rent and monopoly power (15:26) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (20:33) Wages and immigration impacting grocery prices (24:47) Grocery prices and supply chain snarls (25:52) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (27:15) Causes of inflation and deflation (31:04) Impact of aggregate supply and demand on inflation (34:25) Low & stable inflation (37:14) Erasing debt (42:17) How innovation affects inflation (51:09) Tech and real incomes (52:36) Inflation in the 80s and 90s (53:34) Expectation anchoring & inflation control (59:20) COVID and inflation expectations (01:04:37) Costless disinflation & manipulating expectations

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how today’s economy compares to the Reagan-era, cheap oil geopolitics, how much the war in Ukraine is actually costing the US, and the economics of the populist anthem Rich Men North of Richmond. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co 🎧 You can also listen to Econ 102 on the podcast platform of your choice: https://link.chtbl.com/Econ102 -- Timestamps: (01:13) What would a better US economy look like? (05:59) Debt gets inflated away (09:02) Fiscal Dominance (09:59) Age of cheap oil (19:05) Noah vs. Balaji Srinivasan’s bearish case that the US financial system is vulnerable. (27:25) How the Reagan Era Compares to Today (32:28) Economic attribution for presidents (43:12) The surplus war in Ukraine (49:05) Fact checking the economics of Rich Men North of Richmond (57:47) Is the age of the nerd over? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg record an episode to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, the moral problems with the leftist ideological response, the complicated geopolitical power dynamics in the Arab world, and how this conflict marks the waning of American power. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Unpacking the events that led to war in Israel (05:18)Moral problems of the new leftist ideology (11:00) Power dynamics of the Middle East and investment in the conflict (21:29) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite (23:30) Reacting to Sam Harris' statement about moral equivalence (33:20) Is apartheid a fair analogy? (41:00) Where the Saudi Arabia alliance goes from here (46:30)The three-state solution? (47:00) Taking stock of technological advancement (52:00) Israel's military advantage is not guaranteed here (54:55) This war is downstream of the waning of American power (57:30) America is reserving most of our weapons (01:01:15) What does it mean for the Pax Americana to be over? (01:05:30) The Middle East is stuck in a mindset of war – Music License: ZSFI0EY7UP5YYXI2 This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg unpack China's economic strategies under Xi Jinping, from the controversial tech crackdown to the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. They explore the intricacies of international currency dynamics, dissect Ben Bernanke's pivotal role in the 2008 financial crisis, and examine the complex effects of brain drain on developing nations. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr Altea 🚀Elevate your investment game with Altea by Alts.co. Discover vetted deals in unconventional asset classes, network with captivating individuals, and indulge in exclusive travel experiences. Ready to invest in pro sports teams or film financing? Apply now at www.alts.co/102 and redefine your investment journey. Dealcraft 🎙️ Dealcraft: Insights from Great Negotiators is the brand new weekly podcast that features interviews with world’s greatest dealmakers and diplomats, including Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, and music industry super-lawyer John Branca, on their most challenging negotiations. Each episode, host Jim Sebenius (Harvard Business School professor and renowned negotiation expert) relates fascinating deal stories and distills useful insights for listeners to apply in their toughest deals and disputes. Apple: https://link.chtbl.com/3CG3TbHY?sid=Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:02) Japan's economic revival (03:18) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) insights (11:27) Brain drain vs. Brain gain (18:30) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases (20:38) Impact of U.S. inflation on global economies (24:26) Countries reliance of dollar (28:22) Future of the US dollar as a reserve currency (30:58) China's economic stimulus and bank bailouts (35:23) Sponsors: Alts | Dealcraft (37:16) 2008 bank bailout (39:02) Xi Jinping's economic and political missteps (44:37) Belt and Road initiative (47:15) China's internal struggles and leadership (49:42) Strategies for China's future success (53:25) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: Japan's Urban Development Success: Japan's efficient housing development stems from streamlined approvals, standardized zoning, administrative processes, and mixed-use zoning. Abundance Agenda Discussion: Noah analyzed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's "Abundance" book, which promotes a results-oriented progressive approach focused on building things. Government Structure and Process: Successful governance needs both market mechanisms and effective bureaucracy. Political Factions and Resistance: Discussion of different progressive factions (Warren vs. Bernie supporters). The "Doge" Discussion: References to "Doge" (likely Project 2025) as an ideological effort to reduce bureaucracy.

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine the 2024 presidential election, Trump's influence on American politics, and the interplay of conservative movements with domestic and international issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/70765901-d8f7-46b6-b580-3cc3f3874b7f -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr ANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy. 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg celebrate America by discussing its future. They explore the 2024 presidential outlook, the Chevron ruling from the Supreme Court, and the polarization of the education system. Noah and Erik also discuss where wokeness goes from here, and the potential outcomes of integrating more conservatives into the civil service through initiatives like Project 2025.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV | WARP | METAVIEW 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/ 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. Metaview is the AI assistant for interviewing. Metaview completely removes the need for recruiters and hiring managers to take notes during interviews—because their AI is designed to take world-class interview notes for you. Team builders at companies like Brex, Hellofresh, and Quora say Metaview has changed the game—see the magic for yourself: https://www.metaview.ai/heretics -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:55) Debate on Biden and Trump's political future (03:13) Kamala Harris and democratic strategy (07:10) Deep state and government fiefdoms (11:34) Bernie Sanders and election interference (14:00) Chevron ruling and regulatory power (19:14) Sponsors: Beehiiv | Babbel (21:49) Project 2025 and civil service polarization (29:41) Floyd protests and anti-Trump sentiment (33:08) Palestine protests and political exhaustion (35:14) Sponsors: Warp | Metaview (37:15) Samo Bersia's administrative state proposal (39:06) Role and funding of the Department of Education (41:02) Teachers' unions and education reform (47:40) Class and identity in American society (54:17) Future of basic income and poverty reduction (58:32) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least) The U.S. has maintained its technological edge relative to most developed nations, particularly pulling ahead of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. A key U.S. advantage is its diverse financing system - about 80% of U.S. commercial lending is non-bank lending, compared to only 20% in the UK. The U.S. benefits from a large, unified domestic market, further strengthened by continued immigration, which attracts investment and fosters clustering effects, especially in sectors like software. There are concerns about Gen Z's reported lower life satisfaction and mental health challenges. Replacing NEPA with administrative review (similar to Japan's system). -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @patrickc @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least Stripe: https://stripe.com/

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing capacity than America and identifying three key reforms Europe needs: deregulating software, building energy infrastructure, and removing internal trade barriers. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: It’s time for Europe to stand up https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up Book: Old Man’s War by John Scalzi https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36510196-old-man-s-war – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod  – TAKEAWAYS Ukraine has shown resilience in sustaining its war efforts. US aid to Ukraine is becoming less crucial over time. Turkey's support for Ukraine is significant. Europe has substantial manufacturing capacity for military needs. Historical patterns of expansionism are relevant to current geopolitics. Putin's expansionist ambitions can be compared to Louis XIV's. Europe's aging population poses challenges for military readiness. Russia's reliance on China complicates its geopolitical stance. Economic reforms are crucial for Europe's resilience, including deregulation of the software industry. Internal trade barriers hinder European economic integration. America's role as a protector of Europe is diminishing.

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Brad DeLong tackle pressing topics such as the potential for a 'China Shock 2', the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and the shifting role of economists since the Great Recession. They also explore the nuances of economic theory, policy implementation, and real-world outcomes, particularly in a fast-paced information age.  -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102 Altea 🚀Elevate your investment game with Altea by Alts.co. Discover vetted deals in unconventional asset classes, network with captivating individuals, and indulge in exclusive travel experiences. Ready to invest in pro sports teams or film financing? Apply now at www.alts.co/102 and redefine your investment journey. WorkOS 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hexapedia links: APPLE - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hexapodia-is-the-key-insight-by-noah-smith-brad-delong/id1552990332 SPOTIFY - https://open.spotify.com/show/2uHLn3k2PrhY3exPs1sUeB References: Brad DeLong: https://braddelong.substack.com/ Smith, Noah. 2024. “Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense”. Noahpinion. April 15. Smith, Noah. 2024. “Twilight of the economists?” Noahpinion. April 12. Smith, Noah. 2024. “The decade of the Second China Shock”. March 23. Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:10) China Shock 2.0 (07:30) Debating U.S. policy responses (09:59) China's manufacturing and global trade (18:21) Market economies of Europe and Japan (22:58) Sponsors: Netsuite | Alts (25:02) Importance of taking preemptive actions (32:08) Financial capitalism vs. Industrial policy (33:40) Sponsor: WorkOS (35:21) Financial Capitalism and Intel's Struggles (35:51) Critique of economists and economics (37:03) State of the economics profession (40:31) Economists' influence on policy (48:18) Missile defense and Its Implications (51:55) Russia's military strategy and economic constraints (59:56) Future of warfare and economic mobilization (01:07:14) Wrap

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg summon their next dream guest and tackle some listener questions, including the role of economists in predicting outcomes, China's industrial strategy, the new axis, the state of Germany and Britain, and the legacy of neoliberalism. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: WorkOS 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:26) Noah's trip to Poland (01:31) Summoning dream guests - Sergey come on the pod! (02:43) Mailbag Q: Why listen to economists? (09:18) Corporate income taxes and policy (11:59) Unrealized gains (15:18) China's industrial strategy and global relations (17:37) The New Axis (21:25) Potential for World War III (24:06) Sponsor: WorkOS (25:08) Best industrial policy for small landlocked South Asian nations (25:47) Drug prizes in the US (27:29) Nationalistic standpoint and fiscal rules (31:08) Controversies around national sales tax (33:01) Geothermal energy and the future of oil industry (35:54) Germany's energy and economic policies (38:52) State of Britain and Immigration Issues (47:41) The legacy of Neoliberalism (53:13) Wrap

In episode 5, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the promise and failings of higher education, working class economic prospects, the American healthcare system, and more. Noah’s articles are linked below. Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co  We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode preview (01:23) How Noah joined, and then left academia (04:29) The current state of universities (09:30) Universities should invest in student companies indirectly (11:03) Why Americans are falling out of love with college (15:37) What stopped colleges from being able to provide a job and intellectual fulfillment  (15:48) Sponsor: NetSuite (19:55) It's not harder for the average non-college educated American to get jobs nowadays (22:00) Michigan's rust belt (24:08) Was populism driven by economic or socio-cultural factors? (26:23) Is the working class grievance justified? (29:00) Why we don't have a healthcare system like Japan or Korea's (31:42) Healthcare and housing instead of UBI (36:45) Expectations around higher ed (41:00) Why aren't employers starting their own universities? (43:50) Custom training programs for big corporations (45:57) What higher education will look like a decade from now -- LINKS: Americans are Falling Out of Love with the Idea of College https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-falling-out-of-love -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week, economist Eli Dourado joins Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg to explore the concept of the Great Stagnation and whether it is over, the challenges of scaling in America, the role of governance in hindering progress, the role of new technology in productivity gains, and much more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – X / TWITTER: @elidourado (Eli) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Episode Preview (01:44) Perspectives on the Great Stagnation (08:49) Scaling in the U.S. (09:27) Copying Elon Musk (15:36) NIMBYs  (18:48) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (20:14) Our intolerance to risk (25:23) The future of airplane manufacturing  (31:01) Indicators of the great stagnation (33:09) Techno-optimism and socio-pessimism (39:30) The future of home appliances and robots (41:45) The Impact of mining and construction on productivity (43:19) What about solar snergy? (43:42) Role of government in technological progress (55:26) The importance of overcoming obstacles This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, criticizing their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining broader issues like currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade. RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: Trade Policies: Noah describes the current administration's trade policies, particularly tariffs, as chaotic and poorly planned, comparing it to a "clown car" approach. Economic Impacts of Recent Trade Policies: Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the economy by creating business uncertainty that discourages investment, disrupting supply chains for manufacturers reliant on imported components, and driving capital flight that raises borrowing costs through the selling of U.S. treasuries. Why Exports Matter: Noah emphasizes that exports (approximately $2.1 trillion worth) are crucial to the US economy. On Currency Strength: Noah explains that a strong dollar has both advantages (increased purchasing power) and disadvantages (makes exports less competitive). China Containment Strategy: Noah proposes an effective China containment strategy focused on creating a zero-tariff trade bloc among allied nations, building complete supply chains across friendly countries, targeting China with value-added tariffs rather than just final assembly tariffs, investing in industrial policy to strengthen key industries, and applying export controls strategically.

For this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Sebastian Bensusan, an Argentinian engineer, to discuss Argentina's unique inflation problem, its agricultural and mining sectors, dollarization, voting patterns, and more. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv -- We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- LINKS: - Sebastian Bensusan's blog: https://blog.sbensu.com/ - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Argentina's macroeconomic situation is even worse up close" on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/argentinas-macroeconomic-situation -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @sebasbensu (Sebastian) @eriktorenberg (Erik) -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:55) Episode Preview (03:25) Argentina's Economy & Industries (09:00) Lack of Development State (15:45) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (28:20) Hyperinflation & Dollarization (30:46) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (43:27) Inflation & Threshold Effects (48:39) Impact of Inflation on Bonds & Borrowers (55:10) Effects on Savings (01:00:01) Replacing Welfare State with Growth (01:08:14) Privatization & Corruption in Argentina (01:13:04) Refocusing Argentina on Real Economy (01:14:59) Post-Macroeconomics Argentina

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Scott Sumner, an American economist and previously the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, examine the impact of U.S.-China relations on economic and industrial policies, discussing topics such as tariffs, manufacturing capabilities, technologies like drones and batteries, climate change, defense strategies, and the evolving role of neoliberalism. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: Neoliberalism vs. Industrial Policy: The world is moving away from neoliberalism toward industrial policy and authoritarian nationalism. Chinese manufacturing of green technology has supported global climate efforts, sparking debate over whether US trade barriers on Chinese green tech are counterproductive, alongside a discussion of carbon taxes versus other climate policies. China now matches US and allies combined in manufacturing capacity. Trump's tariffs are seen as ineffective for reindustrialization, while Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA are viewed as more successful in specific sectors, prompting a discussion on targeted versus broad industrial policies. Housing and healthcare costs are significant barriers to living standards. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @ScottSumnerTMI @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ The Pursuit of Happiness: https://scottsumner.substack.com/

In episode 3, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg track China's housing bubble, its healthcare crisis, and Taiwan in relation to China and Japan. Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:20) Metabanter and how Noah TA'ed Erik's Econ 102 class (02:41) Overview of China's economy (05:11) Why are we seeing a slowdown in China's growth? (07:13) The US housing bubble compared to China's (10:03) What are the concerns around China's real estate? (13:28) Evergrande, the Lehman Brothers of China (15:08) Predictions for the next few years of China's economy (17:02) What does China's slowdown mean for their position in the world at large? (18:19) China's demographics in a decade (21:36) US-China relations (25:01) US vs China's defence capabilities (27:54) Noah's plan for dealing with China (32:24) The political coalition preserving regulations (33:40) What should China be doing to course correct? (37:24) China's calculus about Taiwan (38:53) Japan's views on Taiwan and China (41:30) One Belt One Road Initiative and Xi Jinping's Legacy -- SPONSOR THIS PODCAST: We're looking for sponsors to partner with on this show. If you or your business might be interested, send us a note at erik@turpentine.co. Find out more here: https://www.turpentine.co/sponsors This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the historical Axis powers in comparison to today's emerging adversarial nations, emphasizing geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and the evolving balance of power. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/577e5681-76d2-498c-8ebc-7b136b1b598f -- Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess -- SPONSOR: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into some listener questions on economics and macroeconomics issues. They discuss the Federal Reserve's strategy on interest rates, the complexities of macroeconomic prediction, the evolution of industrial policy, and pick the best economists of all time. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --  RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and inflation (02:48) Challenges in macroeconomic predictions (04:46) Microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics (07:53) Debating the greatest economists (10:19) University economics departments and their cultures (13:25) Great financial crisis: Causes and Misconceptions (18:50) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (21:25) Stabilizing Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP) (25:50) Mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policy (29:42) Embracing industrial policy (37:13) Challenges in U.S. industrial policy (42:20) Threat of bioweapons and AI (49:21) Economic development with AI and automation (51:23) Economic impacts of high interest rates (53:44) Engaging with policymakers and future initiatives (55:09) Wrap

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listeners' questions and discuss global economic issues such as China's demographic challenges, currency crises, GDP vs. GDP per capita, the efficacy of long prison sentences, and the risks and benefits of economic stimulus, currency depreciation, and trade imbalances. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: The U.S. trade deficit represents IOUs to other countries that must eventually be paid back or partially defaulted on through inflation. A persistent trade deficit is not in America's long-term interest. There are two main types of economic crises: currency crises (typically involving inflation) and deflationary depressions. They require opposite policy responses - austerity for currency crises and stimulus for deflationary depressions. China is currently experiencing a deflationary crisis due to its real estate bubble burst and debt overhang, leading to falling prices and attempts to export their way out of trouble. -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/good-cities-cant-exist-without-public https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/macroeconomics-the-predator-of-foolish

In today's episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle more listener questions: the Fed's impact on inflation and the economy, theories behind interest rates' unexpected effects, and 'greedflation'. The discussion also extends to shifts in Japan's economic policies amid currency valuation concerns, housing price disparities between the US and Canada, gentrification, balanced budget amendments, and the geopolitical dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran, finishing with thoughts on TikTok. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Keep 'em coming: Econ102@turpentine.co -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | WARP | HARMONIC Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months Hundreds of startups already trust Warp to handle their payroll and compliance needs - you can go from zero to payroll live in just two days. Don't let payroll and compliance hold your startup back – visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when you first run payroll. 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.) _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197 _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:53) What if the dollar was no longer the world’s reserve currency? (04:50) Fair taxation (08:20) Level of redistribution in the US (10:30) Lowering inequality by increasing economic growth (18:26) Sponsor: Beehiiv | Harmonic (20:26) Education reform (30:07) Fixing rising costs in healthcare (34:12) Limitations of UBI (39:09) Massive gap between US and China’s manufacturing capacity (46:25) US potential gateway to Africa (54:28) Impact of foreign aid (59:20) Revitalizing small US cities (01:04:58) Wrap

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah’s travel reflections from Singapore, the recent San Francisco cleanup, and the dystopian routes of progressivism. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers. – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:53) Noah’s Travel Reflection (03:58) Singapore’s Secret to Solar Punk (07:33-18:08) Policies we can learn from Singapore (10:06) Healthcare (11:33) Housing Policy (16:35) Singapore and El Salvador’s Strict Crime Policies (18:09) Sponsor: GIVEWELL (19:35) San Francisco’s Sudden Cleanup (22:00) Government and Social Media and AI (31:00) Sponsors: DAFFY and NETSUITE (33:22) Progressive Dystopias (39:47) Immigration vs Gentification (43:38) Progressive Education (46:47) Why Liberalism is Losing the Information War (51:50) Banning Tik Tok (57:32) Pronouncing Xi Jing Ping Correctly

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the aftermath of the Trump 2024 election, debating what to expect on political strategies, economic policies, and the power of figures like Elon Musk, while discussing potential shifts needed within the Democratic Party to address changing voter demographics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/7411dfd6-68b4-4590-b8c5-64aac8ba953f -- 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin, the state of Russia's economic and military, and the country's relationships with the West. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj _ Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity * Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks * Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 * Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion “Russia is not actually a very nice place to live” on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/russia-is-not-actually-a-very-nice - “The Machine” Bert Kreischer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paG1-lPtIXA&t=1s – X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) – TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Episode Preview (01:50) Tucker Carlson's Interview with Putin (04:45) Misconceptions about NATO Expansion (09:44) Poland's Economic Success and Russia's Fear (12:41) Religion in Poland and Russia (16:20) Lessons from Poland's Economic Success (19:12) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (20:55) Tucker's Misconceptions of Russia (26:56) Disparity in Post-Communist Societies (28:27) The Controversy of the EU (29:24) The Real Economic State of Russia (32:08) Putin's Legacy (39:58) Russian Sanctions (51:17) The Future of Warfare: Drones (53:13) Russia's Threat to Europe This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle pressing listener questions focused on the economic impact of AI, software, immigration, and more. They also cover the potential for economic development in poor countries and the evolving nature of industrial policy in the US and China. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj - RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Economic development in poor countries (05:31) Role of Foreign Aid (08:03) Universal Basic Income and parenting (11:47) Software and inequality (21:50) Impact of AI on employment (25:55) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (28:22) Existing AI capabilities (36:06) Immigration impacts (44:35) Shifting progressive economic policies (54:12) China's industrial policy vs. US (01:00:59) Wrap

This episode is a continuation of analyzing the economies around the world, with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg focusing on the Middle East, Africa, South America, and North America. They discuss the economic challenges and solutions in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as Latin America’s drug problem and Canada’s economic stagnation. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SPONSOR: HARMONIC 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify Apple _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Egypt's economic challenges (05:25) How rich is Saudi Arabia (13:57) Sponsor: Turpentine (15:13) Africa’s population growth and demographic dynamics (32:49) Africa’s economic potential (38:58) Mexico's manufacturing and security woes (43:48) Brazil's potential in South American manufacturing (48:01) Latin America's fight against inequality (55:12) Dominican Republic's economic success (01:00:51) Canada's economic stagnation (01:05:33) Wrap  

Noah Smith guests on the Moment of Zen podcast (hosted by his Econ 102 co-host Erik Torenberg and founder Dan Romero) to discuss California land use, housing, politics, policing, and more. Subscribe to listen to Moment of Zen, a weekly show about tech, business, and culture, wherever you listen to podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/moz We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- SPONSOR: NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than thirty-six thousand companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/turpentine and defer payments of a FULL NetSuite implementation for six months. -- Econ 102 and Moment of Zen are part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:07) Antonio as Dennis Rodman (02:05) The left and right version of “it’s time to build” i.e. Ezra Klein vs Marc Andreessen (04:50) California skewed political identities (07:00) California vs Texas GOP stance on immigration (09:30) Should Gary Tan strategize from the left or the right, structurally (11:11) Can the Asian block become a machine in SF? In California? (12:50) Is LA better run than SF? (17:40) What’s the best run city in the US? (22:15) Best format for affordable housing in cities (26:30) California is a class society based on land (28:40) House-rich progressives in California (31:00) Prop 13, property tax, and SALT debates (39:30) The tide of YIMBYism (51:10) Effective building in Japan (58:00) YIMBY movement in SF lost because of crime (59:00) The future of San Francisco (01:09:00) Policing (01:16:00) WWII and the atom bomb (01:22:00) Will patriotism come back? (01:25:00) Biggest misconception about Japan? -- LINKS: Noah's Substack https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Book Recommendation on Prop 13: Golden Gates https://www.amazon.com/Golden-Gates-Fighting-Housing-America/dp/0525560211 -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @dwr (Dan) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @moz_podcast -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listener questions on intriguing topics from politics to personal relationships. They analyze Donald Trump, discuss Chomsky's influence on foreign policy, explore the economics of dating markets, and discuss Noah's theory 'why sex leads to love'. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Assessing Trump's Presidency
(03:20) Trump's Presidency: The good and the bad (12:32) Biden vs. Trump: Second term predictions (16:18) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (18:53) Tech's shift towards Trump (25:20) Chomsky's influence on foreign policy (30:49) Sponsor: Warp (31:48) Anti-American sentiment: A global perspective (35:46) Economic schools of thought (37:08) Ranking federal reserve chairs (41:00) Paul Krugman's legacy (42:49) Economic models and dating markets (47:22) Role of sex in long-term relationships (53:56) Coolidge effect and human relationships (01:00:38) Genetics and long-term passion (01:03:23) Wrap

In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/ -- Highlights from the Episode: The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War. Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order. US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing. Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology. Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @labenz @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Nathan Labenz, co-host of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast, to deep dive into AI's impact on our economy and society. They discuss how AI might affect the job market and society, drawing comparisons to past economic changes. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Sourcery by Molly O'Shea Sourcery by Molly O’Shea brings the conversations founders and investors have behind closed doors into the light. Subscribe for upcoming episodes with: Delian Asparouhov of Founders Fund and Varda Space, and Chris Power of Hadrian. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Ni3Tese9CtZa3oxpCjgTg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SourceryVC/ - SPONSOR: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog The Cognitive Revolution podcast Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1669813431 –  X / TWITTER: @labenz (Nathan) @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) –   TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Intro (00:39) AI and the Future of Employment (03:48) The Intersection of AI, Robotics, and Biotech (04:53) Economic Disruption (06:33) Future of Jobs in an AI-Dominated World (08:22) AI's Impact on Economy (10:36) Pessimism Surrounding AI's Economic Impact (12:21) Comparative Advantage in the AI Era (14:02) AI Replacing Human Jobs (19:19) Sponsor: Netsuite (19:30) New Social Contract in the AI Era (34:21) Human Wages in an AI-Dominated Economy (39:31) Impact of AI on Job Market (41:40) Fear of AI Taking Over Human Jobs (47:47) Role of Government in AI Development (50:06) Potential Risks and Benefits of AI (53:14) Future of AI and Its Social Impact (58:45) Fear of Totalitarian States and AI (01:05:35) The Need for a Positive Vision for AI (01:11:18) Wrap

This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national debt, the baby bust, and the rising costs of U.S. healthcare. Noah also offers solutions, with a focus on boosting productivity and strategic immigration. Plus, don’t miss their take on Argentina’s dramatic economic decisions! -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out How To Money Podcast on: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-money/id1337718773 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6i5Cau3GShqOxHkSRT5TjL iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-how-to-money-30166328/ -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/) Trump's approach to tariffs appears to be influenced by stock market reactions. The main spending pressures come from healthcare programs (Medicare and Medicaid). Declining birth rates (around 1.5-1.6 children per woman in developed countries) pose significant economic challenges. Healthcare costs are primarily driven by providers such as hospitals, doctors, equipment, and pharma, while insurance companies, operating on low profit margins, mainly serve as cost pass-throughs, with recent slowdowns in cost growth potentially easing budget pressures. Technological advances in AI, solar, and batteries could drive future growth. President Milei's economic reforms, though initially painful, are showing positive results. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @HowToMoneyPod @HowToMoneyJoel @HowToMoneyMatt @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ How To Money: https://www.howtomoney.com/ Tariffs, DOGE, and Your Money w/ Noahpinion – Episode 944: https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: NetSuite | Babbel | WorkOS 📈 More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: netsuite.com/102 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @anthropicAI @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Elon Musk's endorsement of SB 1047: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1828205685386936567 -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:06) Dario’s intellectual evolution (04:18) Is Google the Bell Labs of AI? (07:48) Economic moats in AI (10:13) Scaling hypothesis and AI’s future (14:46) National security and AI (16:44) Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay (18:14) AI’s impact on business models (24:19) Noah's big thesis (27:13) Sponsors: NetSuite | Babbel (29:23) AI arms races? (33:41) AI’s impact on labor and skill distribution (38:05) Sponsor: WorkOS (39:06) Future of AI and a hyperscaling world (41:42) A vision of radical abundance (47:14) AI safety and inequality (51:23) The SB 1047 debate (56:13) Rabbit alignment problem (58:41) Wrap

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore various aspects of Joe Biden’s presidency to evaluate a case for reelecting Biden, focusing on economic policy shifts, spending concerns, inflation, and industrial policy. They also emphasize the historical and current political dynamics between the U.S. and China, exploring tariffs, trade, oil production, and technology, with a nuanced view of protectionism’s role in national security and economic growth. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Klaviyo and Rubrik - which just IPO’d. -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://Beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months _ SEND US YOUR Q’s FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: The Positive Case for Joe Biden https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-positive-case-for-joe-biden Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Positive case for Joe Biden (05:34) Biden’s economic policies and achievements (10:32) Discussing inflation during Biden’s administration (15:00) Sponsor: Beehiiv (16:10) Analyzing the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act (20:16) Impact of tariffs and permitting challenges (26:16) Tariff Debate: Impact on EVs and global manufacturing (36:51) Alternatives policies and strategies beyond tariffs (39:26) Evolution of America’s approach to China: Obama, Trump, and Biden (46:44) Wrap

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg delivers a masterful analysis of American progressivism's rise, fall, and potential future resurrection as a class-focused movement in the 2030s. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/c29e2f67-3580-4753-913b-f87c744c6118 -- 📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr ANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy. 📝NOTION offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the debate on immigration, including open borders vs border enforcement, the ideal composition of immigrants, the housing crisis, & the mixed views Americans have on the subject. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Americans are Angry About Immigration": https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-angry-about-immigration – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:40) Episode Preview (02:12) Americans' mixed views on immigration (04:07) The Great Replacement Theory and Political Replacement Theory (06:01) Open borders vs. border enforcement Mechanisms (09:18) Economic effects of immigration (14:23) NIMBYism & the strain on local government finances (14:46) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL (16:12) Labor competition (20:27) Historical Labor Protectionism (25:13) SPONSORS: NETSUITE (28:27) Impacts of NIMBYism (31:45) Costs of Immigration (35:02) Housing & Fiscal Competition (47:46) The Debate on Immigration and Open Borders (49:12) Ideal Amount of Immigration and Sustainable Levels (50:06) High-Skilled vs Low-Skilled Immigration (54:49) Ideal Composition of Immigrants (59:13) Competing with China & the Need for High-Skilled Immigration (01:00:42) Republican Critiques: Political, Cultural, & Racial Replacement (01:08:45) American cultural diversity (01:13:16) Debunking the Fear of Racial Replacement (01:16:22) The Nuanced Picture of Immigration Music License: ZHRPBK5SO667TNVT

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Adam Nash to discuss the economic implications of AI, the recent tech downturn, and why the venture model has been so successful across multiple tech booms. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners, a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy. https://www.daffy.org/econ102  We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (02:00) Why AI may stop nerds from ruling the world (06:25) Are “Skilled” and “Unskilled” the correct labels in this debate? (10:00) Who benefits from a growth mindset? (13:00) Coding example (14:25) Highly skilled tech workers get a boost (17:20) Substitutability versus overall boost (20:55) Sponsor: NetSuite (23:45) AI as a productivity tool (25:30) AI ethics and safety (28:50) Adam Nash’s journey into fintech (30:55) How Americans think about giving (33:30) Macro: What does the current Tech downturn mean? (35:00) People looking for a quick snapback and boom will be disappointed (37:00) How will AI revolutionize distribution? (39:50) Smartphones and depression (43:45) Why the VC model has been so successful across multiple technology booms.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Noah argues that Trump's tariffs (especially on Canada and Mexico) are damaging the US economy more severely than the China tariffs from his first term. Why Tariffs Are Harmful: Factors such as reduced market scale for American companies, loss of specialization benefits, technological isolation ("Galapagos Syndrome"), policy uncertainty hindering business investment, and the negative impact on exports due to exchange rate effects and retaliatory tariffs are all contributing challenges. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Debate about whether tariffs will cause stagflation or a demand shock that lowers inflation. Cultural and Social Commentary: Discussion of Ennis Lyons' argument about "the return of the strong gods" (nationalism, family, tradition, religion). Innovation and National Success: Discussion about Japan's impressive innovation record (extensive list of Japanese inventions)

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the implications of Tim Walz as Kamala Harris' VP pick, the stock market chaos of Monday August 5th, the state of the U.S. economy, the economic collapse of Venezuela, and the growth of East Asian countries.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-TCR -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Who's "weird"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/whos-weird _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Discussion on the VP pick (08:49) Democrats and the strategy of 'Return to Normalcy' (09:56) The Weirdness Discourse (17:11) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (19:38) ‘Weirdness’ in politics (23:44) Kamala's inconsistency (26:16) Economic updates and market sentiment (32:54) Economic indicators and unemployment trends (36:23) Concerns about national debt (40:00) The dollar milkshake theory (42:07) Venezuela's economic collapse (51:04) East Asian economic success stories (01:00:01) China's growth and success (01:03:44) Wrap

This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss modern dating dynamics, cultural shifts, and the impact of technology and social media on relationships with author and former dating advice columnist Katherine Dee, exploring generational differences contributing to the gender war and the broader societal implications. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: Dating markets vary significantly by location and social context - what works in San Francisco differs from New York, and tech industry dating differs from other sectors. There's a noticeable trend toward "avoidant behavior" in younger generations, manifesting in situationships and difficulty with direct communication. Social media and technology have fundamentally altered how people connect, leading to more fragmented and isolated dating experiences. -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @default_friend @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Default Friend: https://default.blog/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the role of tariffs in the world economy, Tesla’s positioning in the Chinese market, and economic strategies that the U.S. may need to implement to remain competitive in global trade. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj _ Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion “Tariffs are coming” on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/tariffs-are-coming – X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) TIMESTAMPS (00:20) Episode Preview (02:17) Trade Policies (05:58) The Impact of Tariffs (08:12) The Future of the U.S. Car Industry (11:42) The Limitations of Tariffs (13:46) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (19:51) The Parallels Between Ford and Musk (27:32) Elon Musk vs China (30:40) Power Dynamics in China (32:26) Europe's Role in the Global Market (34:56) China's Currency Manipulation (40:32) The Need for Industrial Policy (48:01) The Role of Tariffs in Trade (50:08) The Future of U.S. and China Relations (51:46) The Need for Bold Leadership This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the new geopolitical dynamics in Asia and the Middle East, why demographics may mean waning conflict, and take a dive into Ireland’s wealth. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. –  Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” + enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. –  Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – LINKS: - Noah Smith, How Ireland Got So Rich https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-ireland-got-so-rich - Noah Smith, The Middle East is Getting Older: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-middle-east-is-getting-older – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:47) Noah’s reflections from the Kilkenomics Festival ​​(02:44) Why and how Ireland got rich (11:14) What is the legacy of Brexit? (13:16) Pro and counter arguments for Brexit (15:27) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (18:10) Noah on the 2nd Cold War (24:20) Why Asia is more important to the US than the Middle East (29:57) Sponsor: NetSuite (31:04) Iran in the Israel-Gaza conflict (34:45) Predictions for the next decade in Middle East (41:17) On fertility rates  (45:51) Where would Israel be in 10 years? (50:13) The endless pressures on Israel (51:07) What would need to be true for Noah to be bullish on Israel? (57:08) Countering the collaboration between Gaza and Israel

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore several aspects of Japan’s work system, culture, economy, and more, including the seniority promotion system, globally perceived homogeneity, economic transformation, and immigration trends. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Noah highlights Japan's past and current corporate cultures, how working and gender roles have evolved, and his personal journey, explaining how he fell in love with Japan's culture and its transitions over time. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj _ Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: 'Weebs!' by Noah Smith: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/weebs 'Car Wars' by Noah Smith: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/car-wars ‘Can Japan Compete’ by Michael E. Porter: https://www.amazon.com/Can-Japan-Compete-Michael-Porter/dp/0465059899 X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) TIMESTAMPS (00:20) Episode Preview (02:17) Trade Policies (05:58) The Impact of Tariffs (08:12) The Future of the U.S. Car Industry (11:42) The Limitations of Tariffs (13:46) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (19:51) The Parallels Between Ford and Musk (27:32) Elon Musk vs China (30:40) Power Dynamics in China (32:26) Europe's Role in the Global Market (34:56) China's Currency Manipulation (40:32) The Need for Industrial Policy (48:01) The Role of Tariffs in Trade (50:08) The Future of U.S. and China Relations (51:46) The Need for Bold Leadership This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the pros and cons of Biden's tax plan based on Noah's recent essay. They also answered listener questions on the German economy's success, Japan's government debt management, and strategies for staying well-informed on economic issues. Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Klaviyo and Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197 -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | HARMONIC Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine (and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo.) _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: Biden is Right https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/biden-is-right-that-we-need-to-raise Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:51) Biden's Tax Plan: A Critical Analysis (10:45) Argument for and Against Tax Increases (15:41) Sponsor: Beehiiv (16:57) Exploring Capital Gains and Inheritance Taxes (23:07) Impact of Inherited Wealth and Productivity (28:17) Potential Impact of Taxing Unrealized Gains (30:02) Sponsor: Harmonic (31:08) Progressive Wage Subsidies vs. UBI (33:12) Political Activism: Then and Now (43:21) Germany's Success in Manufacturing (45:35) Japan's Government Debt and Deflation (47:45) Discrepancy between S&P 500 Growth Rate and GDP Growth Rate (50:42) Effects of Algorithmic Pricing on Competition (53:45) Noah's News Consumption (56:36) Wrap

This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th,  recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @RichardHanania @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/  Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the  The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived  Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution  Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false  – TAKEAWAYS: Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements. Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence. Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict. Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity. Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party. Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering. Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition. Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts. Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.

This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr – TAKEAWAYS: Democrats can capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, particularly regarding economic policies. The perception of inflation is a significant issue for voters, and Democrats need to address it effectively. Defending democracy is crucial, but Democrats must focus on the actual threats rather than long-term issues like gerrymandering. The Democratic Party needs to reassess its progressive ideals and messaging to resonate with a broader audience. Cultural shifts, such as language policing, can alienate potential supporters for the Democratic Party. The entrepreneurial class holds significant power and talent that Democrats should engage with. Democrats need to communicate a patriotic vision of America to counter negative narratives. The trans movement is distinct from other civil rights movements and requires a nuanced approach. A clear and assertive stance on America's founding principles can help Democrats regain credibility. Young people are increasingly forming situationships instead of traditional relationships. The Inflation Reduction Act was more about political maneuvering than actual inflation reduction. Biden's economic policies have effectively reduced inflation through various measures. Democracy is threatened not just by election denial but by the erosion of checks and balances. A new economic paradigm is needed that addresses modern challenges and national security. Deregulation is essential for economic growth and should be prioritized. The bureaucratic model in Japan could offer insights for improving U.S. governance. Elon Musk's approach to government may be influenced by right-wing media rather than policy experts. A pluralistic social media ecosystem is emerging as people seek alternatives to traditional platforms. There is potential for a smarter Democratic party in response to the changing political landscape.

In today's special episode, we're sharing a conversation between Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recorded back in June for the Bankless podcast. They discuss whether authoritarian regimes could outcompete liberal democracies in the 21st century, exploring the impact of technological advancements, the internet, and decentralized technologies like crypto on information dynamics and the preservation of liberal values. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e7dc596f-bc8e-4574-aebd-c6f579a76175 -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Bankless The Ultimate Guide to Crypto Finance. DeFi, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies. Level up. Go bankless. Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Bankless Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bankless/id1499409058 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5ll0fkqIGyUfSOn9CTfHjC -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://www.givewell.org and select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @BanklessHQ @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Bankless: https://www.bankless.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ How liberal democracy might lose the 21st century: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-liberal-democracy-might-lose

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the resignation of Harvard's President Claudine Gay as well as the issues surrounding academic research, such as plagiarism, peer review, academic incentives, and more. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj - We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) – TIMESTAMPS (00:25) Episode Preview (03:00) The Claudine Gay Controversy (06:24) Bill Ackman's Role (08:00) Plagiarism's Prevalence in Academia (11:24) Need for External Scrutiny (12:51) Universities in the Private Sector (18:04) The Need for External Scrutiny in Universities (18:30) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (20:09) The Impact of Incentives (23:33) Issues with Peer Review (25:44) The Importance of Relevant Research (26:35) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (29:13) Research Across Different Fields (30:07) Theory Papers in Economics (32:23) Defining 'Waste' in Academic Research (34:57) Value of Seemingly-Useless Research (36:39) Incentive in Academia (36:44) Fields That Refuse to Die (46:26) Aging Population's Impact on Research (53:10) Future of Academia

In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements. – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/ – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @LevPo @AuronMacintyre @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles. Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment. Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support. Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations. Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.

Noah Smith breaks down the last two decades of US-China policy shifts - and where we go from here in anticipation of the November election. Let us know if you like these short-form Econ 102 friday bonus episodes by emailing econ102@turpentine.co. -- Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess -- SPONSOR: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Evolutions on America's approach to China (02:08) Obama's engagement strategy with China  (03:07) Trump's paradigm shift in China policy  (04:14) Biden's constructive approach to China policy s  (06:02) Discussion on Trump's financial situation (07:09) China's history of influencing critics  (08:11) Sponsor: GiveWell (09:21) Outro

Today Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the recent angry posts on X from David Austin Walsh, a history postdoc at Yale, and what this controversy says about the social and economic trends of the elite in the US. They also cover the the rise of right-wing muckrakers, discuss what the conservative movement needs now, and who they consider the smartest thinkers today are - on the left and the right. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- Recommended Podcast: The Riff with Byrne Hobart Byrne Hobart, the writer of The Diff, is revered in Silicon Valley. You can get an hour with him each week. See for yourself how his thinking can upgrade yours. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-case-of-the-angry-history-postdoc -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:52) Twitter Blow-Up: David Austin Walsh controversy (04:10) Elite Overproduction and academia (08:09) Racial Disparities in academia (14:12) Sponsor: Beehiiv (15:23) Elite overproduction’s implications for politics and academia (20:46) Right-Wing muckrakers and progressive institutions (30:37) Misconceptions about Barack Obama (31:08) The Rise of Mike Solana (33:00) Evolution of progressive and conservative labels (38:33) Smartest leftist (40:48) American Roots of Wokeness (54:20) Future of Conservatism (59:59) Wrap

In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss wide range of topics, including Trump’s executive orders and their effects on U.S. politics, international tariffs, Michael Pettis's views on China's economy, the Middle East’s potential with solar energy, and Europe’s socio-political shifts, all through the lens of economics. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: There's worry about potential economic instability if Trump's aggressive trade policies lead to stagflation. Concern about China potentially influencing Trump through various financial mechanisms, including cryptocurrency. The Middle East holds a surprisingly optimistic outlook, with the end of the "oil curse" prompting institutional growth, its geography offering ideal conditions for solar energy, and the potential for solar-powered desalination to transform agriculture. European countries struggle more with integration due to different cultural approaches and institutional structures. Interesting parallel drawn between Europe's historical transformation after the 30 Years War and potential for Middle East development. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle more listeners' questions focused on conflicts and war. They cover various defense strategies, emphasizing the urgency of revitalizing the U.S. defense industrial base to prepare for potential conflicts. They discuss the differences between authoritarian and democratic powers, highlighting the significant risk of World War III and the importance of alliance building, particularly with countries like Japan, India, and European nations to counterbalance China's growing influence and the new ‘Axis’. Happy birthday Noah! This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SPONSOR: HARMONIC 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197 _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ WW3? : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough _ X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:57) The defense industrial base (08:17) Precedents of wars leading to World War II and the Cold War (14:57) Contrast of Xi Jinping and Putin (21:46) Sponsor: Turpentine (22:33) China's production advantage (27:54) Evaluating the new axis of power (33:51) Complexities of manufacturing and warfare (41:02) Impact of war on economies (44:13) Exploring the Israel-Palestine conflict (49:41) Potential for peace in the Middle East (55:28) Wrap

Today we’re publishing a debate about industrial policy between Noah and Mike Bird, the Asia business and finance editor at The Economist. Noah highlights the importance of steering the economy to ensure that industries align with national goals and priorities. Bird questions the effectiveness of industrial policy, especially in developed countries. He argues that market forces and competition should determine the allocation of resources, rather than government intervention. Where do you stand? If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/turpentine  We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS:  (00:00) Episode Preview (01:23) How this debate came about (02:25) Why doesn’t The Economist have bylines? (04:55) Chris Odendahl of The Economist’s article saying the focus on manufacturing policy is a delusion (09:15) Is Korea the paragon of industrial policy? (11:20) Overlooking military spending and the chip industry (15:19) Industrial policy crucial for national security (17:42) Sponsor: NetSuite (18:45) Gish Gallop: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop (19:14) Complexity of policy implementation (20:30) The exercise metaphor: multiple benefits (29:34) Subsidies may not ensure resilience (40:33) Balancing goals in geopolitics (43:40) Carbon pricing  (51:45) Manufacturing jobs (53:35) Leveraging local multipliers (agglomeration effects) (1:00:56) Industrial policy can have multiple benefits (1:03:02) Local multipliers benefit economic activity (1:09:24) Need for rigorous economic analysis (1:19:27) Determined optimism drives progress (1:20:05) Friend-shoring is often highly preferable to reshoring -- TWITTER: @birdyword (Mike) @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This is a bonus episode for Econ 102 listeners of The Riff with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg, recorded on Monday night 11/20, discussing the evolving story of Sam Altman’s ousting at OpenAI and new home at Microsoft, what OpenAI's next pivot could look like, the new competitive landscape for the big AI players, and Effective Altruism’s role in this drama. Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff The Riff is a new podcast from the Turpentine podcast network. Subscribe to The Riff: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE | SECUREFRAME Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff -- LINKS: Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co -- X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg @byrnehobart -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Introduction from Erik (00:50) Non obvious thoughts about governance and legal structures (03:50) Could the board have found out something about Sam? (05:00) Tech’s online coordination and choosing sides (06:20) Why haven’t the OpenAI board shared their reasoning? (12:20) Are they going to bring Sam back? (15:20) What should OpenAI’s pivot be? (17:35) Sponsor: Secureframe (18:40) Analyzing Microsoft's moves and the sweetheart deal (22:00) Satya's succession plans (25:05) OpenAI's unique governance structure (28:10) Why Byrne is long on Microsoft (36:00) What explains Microsoft's turnaround? (38:15) Meta and Google (44:20) Which of these companies Byrne would short: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft (46:20) Was this a coup from the Effective Altruism movement? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah breaks down the number one issue no one is grappling with in regards to tariffs on China. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/1835116c-516d-4cab-a2ee-19f4504bc263 -- Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess -- SPONSOR: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the political nuances that influence the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. They explore the historical shifts in party dynamics, immigration policies, and the evolving economic strategies under potential future administrations.  -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ The Democrats are a strong party, the Republicans are a weak party: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-democrats-are-a-strong-party -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:43) Noah's kook and Japanese influence (01:56) Trump and the Republican party (07:44) Role of party elders and Biden's decision (13:31) Historical context of party strength (19:42) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases (21:53) Future of the Republican party (29:14) Immigration and labor laws (30:48) Historical context of immigrant voting (35:47) Sponsor: Netsuite (36:44) Democratic party and immigration policies (45:57) Foreign policy dynamics (52:34) Kamala Harris's economic plan (56:21) Wrap

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the nomination of JD Vance as Vice President, Trump's political strategies, and the potential geopolitical shifts with a focus on China. The conversation also covers Biden's policy continuity and the role of tech leaders in shaping political directions.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | COMMANDBAR | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🦾 Level up your ineffective website chatbot with CommandBar. CommandBar builds a new type of web assistant which delivers highly personalized responses, real time co-browsing, and can perform actions on behalf of the users. Learn how Hashicorp, Gusto, Freshworks and more use CommandBar at https://commandbar.com/moz This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:22) Analyzing J.D. Vance's VP Nomination (03:11) J.D. Vance's policy positions and influence (09:14) Trump's foreign policy and asia focus (14:07) Healthcare spending and political shifts (17:58) Biden's continuation of Trump policies (22:36) Sponsors: Beehiiv and Babbel (25:11) Potential changes if Trump gets re-elected (26:34) Silicon Valley's political shift (33:46) Democrats' relationship with technology (37:06) Elon Musk's political shift (46:40) Sponsors: CommandBar and Warp (48:51) Current state of stability in the US (55:49) Future of U.S.-China relations (59:22) Importance of patriotism in the 2030s (01:04:52) Role of tech leaders in influencing politics (01:05:12) Wrap

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Brad Hargreaves, the founder of Common, co-founder of General Assembly, and writer of Thesis Driven. They discuss the future of real estate and housing in America, the impact of regulations, and the potential of new cities. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Thesis Driven Leader Series Thesis Driven Leader Series, hosted by Brad Hargreaves, features conversations with the leading voices at the intersection of real estate, cities, innovation, and the built world. Guests include Jan Sramek, Dror Poleg, Spencer Rascoff, and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thesis-driven-leader-series/id1724813949 Substack: https://www.thesisdriven.com/p/introducing-the-thesis-driven-leader _ Sponsor: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – Links: Noahpinion’s https://www.noahpinion.blog – X / TWITTER: @bhargreaves (Brad) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) – TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Intro (00:28) Understanding Real Estate Economics (01:29) Role of Technology in Real Estate (02:45) 2008 Financial Crisis and Real Estate (06:31) Role of Banks in Real Estate (10:14) Future of Real Estate and Housing (13:21) Sponsor: NetSuite (14:38) Impact of Regulations (20:22) Real Estate Architecture’s Evolution (29:48) Role of Developers in Real Estate (40:21) Challenges of Building State Capacity (51:53) Potential of New Cities (01:00:33) Success of New Urbanist Towns (01:01:53) Wrap This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Today Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer more listener questions covering the surge of support for the hard right in European elections, the impact of immigration in Europe and the US, the future of Social Security, the stability of banks, and the best and worst taxes in the US. They also dive into the negative impact of China conquering Taiwan and why it is important to stand up against China's aggression.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:25) European elections and economic concerns (05:41) Comparing immigration in the US and Europe (12:01) Immigration in Japan and Vietnam (14:01) Brain drain in small countries and economic challenges (15:59) Sponsor: Babbel and Beehiiv (18:34) Social security and population growth (22:04) Banking crisis and regulations (26:56) Taxation: Best and worst practices (32:00) Government spending and infrastructure (37:16) Future of Intel and the chip industry (40:57) Manufacturing vs. Service-based development (49:54) Japan-Korea relations and generational change (56:49) Threat of China and global alliances (01:03:06) Wrap

This week Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Itay Vinik, Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, to explore their different perspectives on the current state of the economy and the likelihood of a recession. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- X / TWITTER: @VinikItay (Itay) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia TIMESTAMPS (00:20) Intro (01:03) The current state of U.S. economy (03:43) Future economic trends (08:25) Economic indicators and predictions (15:24) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (16:51) Cont. economic indicators and predictions (19:45) Potential economic risks (21:46) Inflation and fiscal policy (29:29) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (32:48) Inflation and monetary policy (35:29) Recapitalization of the banking system (36:34) Long-term deflationary trends (43:23) Housing’s role in wealth effect (48:21) Risky debt (55:22) Conclusions on the future of the economy

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle the shift in economic research from empirical studies to "big think" theories, critically examine Acemoglu's work on institutions and AI's impact on jobs, and debate the future of economics as a science. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102 ANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy. Carta 📑Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Why Nations Fail: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:14) Shift in economic theories (07:16) Influence of economic theories on practice (10:10) Acemoglu's contributions and skepticism (12:09) Why Nations Fail: A Deep dive (12:52) Sponsors: GiveWell | Weights & Biases (15:03) Evaluating institutional theories (23:01) Hayek's market theories in an AI world (25:06) Debating AI and automation (28:23) AI's Impact on employment (29:43) Power and Progress (30:13) Sponsors: Netsuite | Anrok | Carta (33:11) Impact of technology on job creation (37:20) Macroeconomic impact of AI (42:08) Economics: Big think vs. Humble work (46:13) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the the policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, complexities of housing affordability and wealth storage, challenges in immigration policies, and critique the effectiveness of tariffs. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: WORKOS | BABBEL 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Harris has the right idea on housing: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:48) Discussing housing policy (05:53) Singapore's housing model (10:54) Kamala Harris' housing plan (12:32) Federal vs. Local housing regulations (14:32) Grocery store price gouging debate (22:28) Mass deportation policies (24:23) Sponsors: WorkOS | Babbel (26:51) Illegal Immigration (31:58) Economic impact of immigration (37:12) Cultural disruptions from immigration (43:37) Tariffs and trade policies (49:35) Republican focus on immigration (57:31) Export controls and Chinese chip industry (01:00:29) Wrap

This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have) Discussed the transitioning from traditional media (NYT, Bloomberg) to Substack for greater editorial freedom and authentic voice, noting that traditional outlets still maintain an "establishment" mindset. On Substack, Krugman settlies on 1100 words per post and Noah aims for 2000-2500 words. Public perception of the economy often shifts dramatically based on political affiliation rather than actual economic conditions. How the Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of manufacturing capability for national security. Current Political Climate: Greater concern about current political risks compared to previous eras like the Reagan administration. Explored how national security concerns are reshaping trade policy thinking. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @paulkrugman @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have

In our second installment of Analyzing the Economies Around the World, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe and Turkey. They discuss the UK's productivity issues, France's nuclear energy investments, Germany's weaknesses, Poland's economic success, Turkey's economic policies, and immigration challenges across the EU and Europe. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SPONSOR: HARMONIC 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify Apple _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:30) UK's economic challenges (07:25) France's nuclear power success (12:02) Germany’s trust problem (24:28) Sponsor: Turpentine (25:36) Italy’s stagnant and declining economy (26:33) Poland's economic rise (31:24) Poland responding to external threats (32:25) Europe's immigration challenges (45:13) EU's future despite economic and regulatory obstacles. (52:34) Turkey's economic landscape and prospects (58:17) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith talks to Erik Torenberg about his viral post on land acknowledgements, exploring how nations should be defined by institutions rather than ethnic identity. The conversation expands into a discussion of immigration, cultural assimilation, and sovereignty across countries like Israel, Japan, South Korea, and Botswana, examining how different nations navigate the balance between cultural preservation and integration. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/b7f9f1c6-5c17-4877-9be7-c0b3d56c7e78 -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ No, you are not on Indigenous land: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/no-you-are-not-on-indigenous-land

In our first episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the highs and lows of Biden's first term, Biden's policies in comparison to previous presidents and other leaders, as well as China -- its real estate sector, industrial and manufacturing industries, and its views on tech. We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite  http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:24) Overview of Biden's first term (02:56) The most important thing Biden's done  (12:19) What are the chances of Trump returning? (14:03) In the 1970s once again (14:47) Woke concerns among Republicans (15:38) Noah's ideal foreign policy (17:46) Japan's importance in foreign policy (19:29) Main foreign policy concerns in the next cycle (20:30) The ideal containment strategy (22:55) China (26:23) Getting to 1 billion Americans as a foreign policy measure (27:24) Real estate in China (31:33) Comparing and contrasting Chinese and American industrial policy (37:02) China's stomp on the IT industry to encourage manufacturing (39:09) The difference in Chinese and American views of manufacturing  (43:18) Revitalizing American manufacturing  (46:08) The services industry (48:03) A shortage of human truckers  -- SPONSOR THIS PODCAST: We're looking for sponsors to partner with on this show. If you or your business might be interested, send us a note at erik@turpentine.co. Find out more here: https://www.turpentine.co/sponsors This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

In episode 2, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg track the fracturing of the Libertarian movement, the culture wars, and which ideas deserve not to die. We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode preview (12:54) Why did Libertarians lose? (15:00) Free trade failure in the 2000s (19:00) Libertarians jumping on the Trump train (19:45) Evolution to state-capacity libertarian (22:00) Culture wars vs. getting the economics right (27:30) Effect of money on politics (29:00) Urban fragmentation: San Francisco and New York (30:30) Hot take: Gavin Newsom underrated (37:00) How the right soured on the free markets and became became statist (39:00) Can a 'reset' work (40:20) Which ideas deserve not to die? -- SPONSOR THIS PODCAST: We're looking for sponsors to partner with on this show. If you or your business might be interested, send us a note at erik@turpentine.co. Find out more here: https://www.turpentine.co/sponsors -- LINKS MENTIONED: Where Does Libertarianism Go From Here? https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/where-does-libertarianism-go-from Tyler Cowen, State-Capacity Libertarianism https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/what-libertarianism-has-become-and-will-become-state-capacity-libertarianism.html -- TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/448WaJhgJGJKnQ3HCE2EBa YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaTalkMedia -- Highlights from the Episode: Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing. Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them. China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt. Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery. Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach. Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg respond to pressing questions on US inflation, the possibility of the US becoming a petro-state, global trade dynamics in the context of geopolitical shifts, the potential impacts of de-dollarization, and the sustainability of defense strategies. They also cover the impact of recent wars, and discuss India and Japan. Thanks to all the listeners who continue to send in their questions! 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episodes are on Reddit, Twilio, Klaviyo and Rubrik. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197 -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:45) Exploring Biden's influence on inflation and policy suggestions (05:21) Inflation's impact on national debt (09:34) Role of industrial policy in inflation dynamics (15:47) Is the U.S. Becoming a Petro State? (17:28) Sponsor: Beehiiv (18:39) Discussing federal reserve's balance sheet and monetary policy (23:49) Student loan forgiveness and tariffs (25:38) WTO's role in trade disputes (28:23) Rethinking global trade rules (31:28) Trade agreements and military alliances (32:35) China and Russia: Trade relations and aggressiveness (33:28) China’s capital inflow tax (40:13) India's political landscape and Modi's impact (50:10) Reassessing U.S. military interventions: Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq (53:44) Role of conventional forces in preventing nuclear war (56:46) Japan's currency intervention (57:47) Invitation to Lithuania (58:10) Wrap

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's Substack essays about a possible age of Austerity, and moving away from China for the US's next age of globalization. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- LINKS: “An Age of Austerity is probably on the way” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on “No one knows how much the government can borrow” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/no-one-knows-how-much-the-government “The next phase of globalization is going to be awesome” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-next-phase-of-globalization-is -- Timestamps: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:24 - 23:48) Age of Austerity (04:27) Reducing the deficit (02:47) What spending cuts will we see? (06:10) What’s the bottom line for growth? (18:38) Sponsors: Daffy and Netsuite (23:49) Adjust your graphs for inflation! (25:22) Why a cheaper US dollar is actually a weapon (26:55) Chinese “dumping” (29:42) The next wave of globalization is going to be awesome (32:29) China is a nuts country (33:35) Are we deglobalizing? (35:51) South and Southeast Asia (43:19) Economic Nationalism is here to stay (46:57) Globalization moving forward is about reducing our dependency on China -- X / TWITTER:  @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik)

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Silicon Valley's cultural influence, Marc Andreessen's predictions, what comes after wokeness, tariffs on China, Reaganomics, the 'polycrisis,' the future of industrial policy, and political dynamics involving Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Paul Krugman. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: The decline of "wokeness" follows historical patterns of social movements, with San Francisco leading both adoption and abandonment of cultural trends. Industrial policy and targeted tariffs are crucial for American manufacturing competitiveness, particularly in relation to China. The challenges of implementing meaningful austerity measures in the US government and the necessity of making difficult policy choices. The complex relationship between Trump and Elon Musk's competing visions for America's economic and foreign policy future. Paul Krugman's legacy: Reviving Keynesian economics during Great Recession. -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Marc Andreessen on Trump, the vibe shift, and what’s after wokeness: https://youtu.be/l8X8jecivWw?si=ZKfdrvEetz8sZ6Hi The Wokeness series: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-wokeness-series Ready Player One: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9969571-ready-player-one We Have Never Been Woke: https://www.amazon.com/Have-Never-Been-Woke-Contradictions/dp/0691232601 Musa al-Garbhi Substack: https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/ Akira: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094625/ The Big Chill: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085244/

In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the complexities surrounding fracking, China's economic growth and challenges, and tackle a controversy in Springfield involving false claims about Haitian immigrants and the larger implications for U.S. immigration policy. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr NetSuite More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/102 WorkOS 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Harris needs to be Pennsylvania fracking's biggest champion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-needs-to-be-pennsylvania-frackings -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:38) Evolution of fracking (02:30) Environmental impact of fracking (05:14) Fracking and geopolitics (07:08) Shift to renewable energy (11:18) Challenges and future of wind energy (15:16) Nuclear power (18:45) Sponsors: Weights & Biases | Netsuite (20:10) China's economic growth and urban development (32:51) Sponsor: WorkOs (33:16) Understanding recessions (35:52) Keynesian recession and deflation  (38:00) China's economic evolution (42:39) Haitian immigration controversy (48:55) Moral implications of political falsehoods (58:12) Reflecting on immigration and American values (01:00:47) Wrap

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about the world's biggest economies including US, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Australia, and more, looking at things like inflation, debt, industrial policy, and population challenges. They talk about what each country does well and where they might struggle, and offer ideas about what could happen next. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SPONSOR: HARMONIC 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836. - SPONSOR: BRAVE Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign. - Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog -  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) - TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:03) U.S. Economy: Trends and Concerns (08:01) Transition to China's Economy: Massive Property Bust (15:28) Sponsor: Brave | Turpentine (21:36) Segue to Japan's Economy: Key Hub of the Electronics Manufacturing (30:11) Korean Economic Struggles (33:05) South Korea's Technological Capabilities and International Relations (34:14) Exploring Taiwan's Economy and Challenges (36:22) Indonesia's Manufacturing Shift (37:55) Vietnam's Economic Strategy and Development Needs (40:31) India's Poverty Reduction and Infrastructure Investments (44:26) Pakistan Economic Mismanagement (48:38) Philippines: Underrated Investment Destination (49:33) Transition to Australia: The Progressive Utopia (52:02) Russia Economy at War (59:59) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse. RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: https://soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus – TAKEAWAYS: "Abundance" as a Political Concept: Abundance represents national unity and a "we're all in this together" approach, focusing on making things better for all Americans rather than pitting groups against each other. Economic Analysis: Demand vs. Supply Constraints: They discuss how the 2008 financial crisis created an "aggregate demand shock" where everyone wanted to hold cash rather than spend. National Debt Discussion: They discuss how US debt grew from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. They also mention AI could potentially help by increasing productivity growth. "The New Right" Ideology: Noah characterizes the "new right" as centered around defending "Western civilization" in a more narrow sense than previous definitions. Social Media's Impact on Politics: Noah argues that small, vocal minorities on social media have outsized influence on institutions.

This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg sit down to deconstruct several economic theories dealing with developing nations, export oriented manufacturing, the roles of engineers across the world, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. He rebuttals arguments made by Turkish economist Dani Rodrik relating to on manufacturing, automation, employment, and more. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj _ Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity * Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks * Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 * Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ ➕ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE 💫 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – 📈Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – ✍️ LINKS: - Noahpinion "The Developing Country Industrialization series" on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-developing-country-industrialization - Thread on the economy: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1753450904840286367?s=20 - EJ Antoni's "Why the Unemployment Rate Is Much Higher Than It Seems" : https://www.heritage.org/jobs-and-labor/commentary/why-the-unemployment-rate-much-higher-it-seems – X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) – TIMESTAMPS (00:20) Episode Preview (02:12) Debunking economic myths (03:03) Unemployment rates (04:56) Alternative labor market indicators (06:40) Misconceptions about inflation (09:33) Understanding borrowing and debt (12:10) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (17:28) The possibility of economic collapse (21:34) International development strategies (26:11) Bangladesh’s need for electronics manufacturing (30:27) Dani Rodrik's views on manufacturing (36:15) The impact of automation on manufacturing (39:19) The role of engineers in manufacturing (43:25) Future of manufacturing in developing countries This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the high costs of healthcare, the challenges facing the center-left, the possibility of infinite economic growth, solutions to declining fertility rates, and the role of technology in addressing demographic challenges. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg -- Highlights from the Episode: Health insurance companies are often unfairly blamed for high healthcare costs, while making only 1-3% profit margins. The real cost drivers are healthcare providers and hospital systems. National health insurance, as implemented in countries like Japan, can effectively control costs but may risk reducing healthcare innovation. Population growth follows exponential functions, meaning societies are always trending toward either over-population or under-population, with no stable middle ground without active intervention. -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. NetSuite More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the state of the economy, whether tech and the VC ecosystem are doing well or facing a 'rolling recession', and unpack assumptions about wealth in the United States. Make informed decision for high impact donations with GiveWell, which is offering Econ 102 listeners donation matching up to $100. To claim your match, go to givewell.org ➡️ pick “Podcast” enter Econ 102 at checkout. We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite ✅ http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:05) The Rolling Recession? (03:55) When Are Venture Capitalists gonna get rich again? (06:15) Will rate cuts go down? (08:15) Factory Model of Venture Capital (10:20) Crypto's correlation to the markets (14:15) Sector specific shocks screwing the economy (16:50) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (20:00) The temperature metaphor in economics (22:41) Regular Americans are getting richer (25:02) How accurate are the measurement of inequality statistics in terms of reflecting true inequality? (30:15) Why inequality might be good in economics (36:55) What mechanisms led to inequality going down (41:00) Skyrocketing prices and poor regulation of markets (47:00) Piketty's arguments on inequality This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith explore economic policies, political dynamics, societal issues, including the abolition of income tax, government agency efficiency, the evolving political landscape, technology's impact on freedom and dignity, and the challenges of maintaining a competent civil service. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/ab409e21-1697-4621-a9b8-cfd3149e4e35 -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg -- SPONSORS: GiveWell GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the legacy and failings of Bernie Sanders’ movement with regards to privatization, student loans, healthcare, and the wealth gap. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- Timestamps (00:00) Episode Preview (01:32) The Bernie movement’s evolution (05:00) Factionalism and aggression marking the approach of socialists (15:36) Glass-Steagall litmus test (19:00) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite (21:11) Can neoliberalism work? (22:34) Biggest mistakes of privatization: the non-profit industrialization complex (26:18) Lack of industrial policy is a pro-finance policy (27:30) Chief neoliberal shill (30:05) How Biden is carrying forward the legacy of Bernie’s movement (34:10) Inflation killed student loan relief (besides the courts) (41:00) How Bernie bungled his egalitarian movement (48:45) Wealth tax (50:55) Healthcare This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

In this week’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into various econ topics and tackle listener questions! They cover: government spending and the national debt, discussion on taxation, wealth taxes and economic outcome of the next U.S. election, as well as differences in respect and status in the United States and Japan, and lessons learned from deficit spending. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SPONSOR: HARMONIC 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ Recommended Podcast: Company Breakdowns Each episode of Company Breakdowns dives into S-1s and series B-and-beyond companies, interviewing founders and investors to break down the companies. First episode is on Rubrik - which just IPO'd. Coming up this season: Databricks, Reddit + more, Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0epyYBAxLeF0PsNagdDJAJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/company-breakdowns/id1743119197 _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ Timestamps: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:02) Noah’s Japan trip (02:33) Why is the U.S. doing so much deficit spending? (08:04) Post-COVID economic response (14:52) Levers of dealing with the National debt (21:27) 2024 Election Speculations: Economic outcomes of Trump vs. Biden (25:26) Pros and cons of a Wealth tax (30:35) Sponsor: Turpentine (32:34) Impact of Funding the IRS and repealing Trump's tax cuts (33:01) Reducing government spending (41:11) Addressing economic inequality in the U.S. (51:26) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping's political future, U.S.-China tensions, Trump's and Biden's policies, the 2019 global protests, China's economic troubles, and the challenges facing Western nations, while also emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation on U.S. industrial policy. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- Highlights from the Episode: China faces significant economic headwinds with deflation and productivity challenges, requiring major policy interventions including potential bailouts to address their real estate crisis. Justin Trudeau's legacy in Canada is marked by criticism of his economic management, the country's ongoing productivity challenges, an overreliance on the oil sector as a temporary fix for deeper economic issues, and stagnant business investment despite partial recovery in oil prices. The conservative coalition in America has evolved to become more diverse, with Latino and Asian voter shifts playing a crucial role in recent electoral outcomes. Biden's industrial policy has shown success in areas like solar panel manufacturing and chip production, despite implementation challenges around DEI and union requirements. Elon Musk's involvement in European politics is analyzed in terms of how Europe could counter his influence through market access, with an observation that his focus on the region may be part of rebuilding a coalition after disputes over immigration. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ The Players on the Eve of Destruction: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-do-we-measure-whether-chinas Biden's tarnished industrial legacy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/bidens-tarnished-industrial-legacy Trudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trudeau-was-a-poor-steward-of-canadas

In episode 7, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss student debt, millennial politics, conservatism, international relations, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/turpentine We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TOPICS COVERED: (01:00) Episode Preview (02:45) Evolution of Noah’s opinion on student debt (06:40) Income-based repayment (09:50) For-profit academic institutions (14:09) Tax-income fund research (16:02) Sponsor: NetSuite (19:00)Were Millennials really generation-screwed? (20:27) Millennial’s stance on politics (25:07) Millennial’s becoming Conservative? (27:02) How Conservatism evolved up to today (34:50) Trump’s Foreign Policy: Russia & Ukraine (39:13) The Right on Taiwan vs China (40:50) Would China Pearl Harbor us? (44:18) Consequences of wealth inheritance (48:00) What will Gen Z’s Politics look like? (49:30) Ketamine is lame (50:05) Liberal depression (54:07) Theory of biological imbalance -- LINKS: Will There be a Millennial Chill https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/will-there-be-a-millennial-big-chill -- X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) -- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Noah Smith joins Age of Miracles hosts Packy McCormick and Julia DeWahl to discuss the future of nuclear energy as well as other energy sources. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Age of Miracle's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@age-of-miracles/videos – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @packyM (Packy) @juliadewahl (Julia) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Episode Preview (01:20) Energy in 2050 (02:35) Nuclear’s Learning Curve (08:08) Building Nuclear vs Oil & Gas (12:11) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL & DAFFY (14:28) Case for Solar Energy (16:52) Land acquisition costs (19:39) Storage (25:16) Turning nuclear on and off (28:29) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL (30:54) Intermittency problems (35:49) Texas and Japan’s Batteries (41:11) Land for Energy (45:14) Wind (47:46) Building solar (50:32) When energy is cheap, what’s valuable? (54:39) Fusion

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems. -- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. -- Highlights from the Episode: Noah argues that while Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is publicly presented as a cost-cutting initiative, it's primarily an ideological project aimed at reducing "woke" initiatives in government. As zero-interest debt gets rolled over at higher rates (around 4%), interest costs are reaching historic highs as a percentage of GDP. Austerity measures will likely involve difficult choices for the middle class. Healthcare spending in the U.S. is disproportionately high compared to other wealthy nations. Government efficiency is harder to measure than corporate efficiency due to its multiple, often conflicting objectives, the influence of democratic processes, and congressional oversight, which complicates decision-making about program value. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.  -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the differentiation between technology and 'tech' as an investment category, the future of AI, potential profitability of AI companies, and the challenges faced by VC investors in the AI space. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | BABBEL | WORKOS 📈 More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: netsuite.com/102 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-TCR -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Some thoughts on the future of the tech industry: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-the-future-of-the _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:23) State of technology: Optimism vs. realism (07:18) Consumer social and the limits of innovation (11:10) Role of AI in education and healthcare (18:35) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (20:44) Impact of incumbents on innovation (25:28) Future of e-commerce and remote work (31:52) Sponsor: NetSuite (32:59) Future of AI in venture capital (36:13) Economic impacts of AI adoption (40:52) Challenges in AI profitability (43:33) Role of big tech in AI (50:24) Political shifts in the tech industry (01:03:13) Wrap

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses. RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-are This is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight – TAKEAWAYS: Tariff Policy Analysis: They discuss the implementation of widespread tariffs, particularly focusing on how the administration set tariff rates without sound economic methodology, possibly using AI to generate justifications. Trade Deficit Misconception: Noah explains that trade deficits are often misunderstood - they're essentially loans where a country buys goods and provides IOUs (bonds) in return, not necessarily harmful to an economy. Manufacturing Impact: They argue that tariffs may actually harm domestic manufacturing by making imported components, machinery, and raw materials more expensive, potentially leading to de-industrialization rather than re-industrialization. International Relations: The discussion covers how trading partners are responding, with China imposing reciprocal high tariffs, while noting that many countries will likely seek alternative export markets rather than capitulate to demands. Long-term Economic Outlook: The discussion paints a concerning picture of potential rising unemployment, continued market volatility, and possible inflation depending on which economic forces (panic or inefficiency) prove stronger.

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's recent Substack post skewering the claims and proposals that make up Republican Presidential candidate Vivek's Ramaswamy's platform. Noah covers Vivek's climate science sources, economic facts on renewable energy, foreign policy stance towards China, Russia, Taiwan and more. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (01:00) Episode Preview (03:20) Why Noah doesn’t think Vivek should be tech’s candidate (07:20) Vivek’s views on climate are stuck in 2010 (13:15) Countering Vivek’s sources on climate (17:52) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite (21:00) Vivek's foreign policy claims (27:00) Viviek's Russia & Ukraine takes (31:45) Any charitable view of Vivek's foreign policy? (33:00) Biden vs Trump vs Obama foreign policy (40:00) Noah's ideal foreign policy: the Anti-Empire (44:00) Republicans need to advocate for defense spending (46:00) Similarities between abundance movement and dismantling the administrative state (50:00) Noah's pick for Republican candidate (57:00) Why Vivek is not the one.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the rise in pseudoscience, the “administrification” in America, the trillion-dollar non-profit sector, and more. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv –  We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. –  Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. –  Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – Timestamps (00:00) Episode Preview (01:21) New Release Day (01:35) Q&As (02:43) The politicization of science (16:51) SPONSORS: GIVEWELL & DAFFY (18:17) Is Academia Primarily Left? (21:58) The Administrator Boom (25:59) SPONSORS: NETSUITE & ODD LOTS (29:13) The Trillion Dollar Non-profit sector (31:06) Special Interest Groups (32:42) Nonprofit vs Government (43:24) Politicians on Nonprofits (46:23) Global productivity slowdown (53:09) Charter Schools (55:17) Accelerating those at the bottom (59:24) A.I. Tutors

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the changing racial dynamics in the U.S., highlighting the importance of national identity, and the recent role of social media within that evolution. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj _ Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity * Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks * Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 * Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv _ We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. Sponsors: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – Links: Noahpinion’s “This is not a good way to fight racism in America” on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-not-a-good-way-to-fight-racism – X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) – TIMESTAMPS (00:33) Episode Preview (01:40) Google Gemini (03:53) Has history repeated itself? (07:05) A cultural since Trump's residency (10:11) Inspiration for Star Wars (12:30) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (13:40) The aftermath of the Nixon era (22:56) Social media’s role (28:13) Ethnic Enclaves on economic outcomes (29:43) The controversial ideas of Kendi (30:14) Different searches for national identity (38:35) The Challenges of multiracial societies (40:54) History’s role in shaping national identity (47:08) The Impact of education on racial identity (51:40) Concluding thoughts on Americans’ identities This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

This week on ECON 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Republican Party platform and its focus on economic issues. They also cover the influence of Trump-era policies, the evolving stance on immigration policies, cost reduction on education, housing and healthcare - and what Noah would do if he was the enlightened despot in charge of the US.  🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion - A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | COMMANDBAR | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🦾 Level up your ineffective website chatbot with CommandBar. CommandBar builds a new type of web assistant which delivers highly personalized responses, real time co-browsing, and can perform actions on behalf of the users. Learn how Hashicorp, Gusto, Freshworks and more use CommandBar at https://commandbar.com/moz This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Let's evaluate the whole Republican party platform!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/lets-evaluate-the-whole-republican Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Analyzing the Republican Party Platform (01:53) Economic focus of the platform (02:25) Cultural shifts in the Republican Party (05:19) Comparing past and present platforms (09:10) Immigration policies and their impact (12:03) Sponsors: Beehiiv and Babbel (14:38) Inflation and economic strategies (20:15) Merit-based immigration and family reunification (24:48) Building the greatest economy in history (27:47) Sponsors: CommandBar and Warp (29:59) Role of government in elder care (33:42) Proposed solutions for California's budget (36:26) Reducing costs in education, housing, and healthcare (42:04) Boosting exports and trade policies (45:41) Manufacturing productivity and challenges (57:08) Trump's impact on Republican policies (01:00:36) Wrap

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto (a16z), the last waves of economic innovation, energy advancement, and predict the next wave of productivity gains from private and government-enabled innovation. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Noah Smith, Thoughts on Techno-Optimism https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/thoughts-on-techno-optimism  - Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ - Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of Economic Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_American_Growth#:~:text=Gordon%20considers%20that%20the%20apparent,growth%20between%201920%20and%201970. - Miles Kimball (Econ 102’s actual Econ 102 professor) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Kimball – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:25) Reaction to Marc Andreessen’s techno-optimism manifesto (04:22) Where Noah disagrees: technology does not always empower individuals (08:05) How to overcome the natural incentive problem of innovation (11:55) Economist Robert Gordon and no analog to step changes in innovation (15:50) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite (21:50) Nuclear energy and other energy advancements (29:40) GDP is utterly unprepared for changing preferences (33:40) Productivity boom 1987-2004 (36:58) Was the smartphone actually a step change in productivity? (39:42) Next wave of innovation (41:50) Where Noah disagrees with Marc Andreessen (44:15)Government vs privatized enablement of innovation (49:50) Real sustainability is important and possible This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.