Cheap Talk (Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes)

Rationalism versus political psychology; whether the bargaining model is useful; the role of individuals in IR; and Marcus has a couple more things to say

Taking diplomacy seriously; the Cold War ends with a fizzle; summit diplomacy; Jimmy Carter saves the day; and Marcus recommends an excellent article in International Studies Quarterly.

Further reading:

Marcus Holmes and Keren Yarhi-Milo. 2017. “The Psychological Logic of Peace Summits: How Empathy Shapes Outcomes of Diplomatic Negotiations.” International Studies Quarterly 61(1): 107–122.

Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2016. “The negotiation calculus: Why parties to civil conflict refuse to talk.” International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 38–46.

Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Garage door updates; the information and cyber war in Ukraine; academics in the press; the ethical implications of AI art; and Marcus discusses his turkey options

Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Further Reading

On Thanksgiving menus:

“2022: Kenji on T-Day.” 2022. Special Sauce Podcast. https://www.thespecialsaucepodcast.com/podcast/special-sauce-2022-kenji-on-t-day/ (Quick summary of Kenji’s tips: - add soy sauce to your gravy, - use a small turkey, - spatchcock the turkey, - dry-brine the turkey or cover with mayo)

Sunny Lee. 2020. “Celebrate the Sides With a Korean-American Banchan Thanksgiving.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/korean-american-thanksgiving-menu

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2020. “Crisp-Skinned Spatchcocked (Butterflied) Roast Turkey With Gravy Recipe.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/butterfiled-roast-turkey-with-gravy-recipe

“Those Are Not Their Actual Faces.” Nov 21 2022. Cheap Talk Podcast. http://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk/2021/11/21/those-are-not-their-actual-faces

On Ukraine:

“Matt Tait on Cybersecurity in Ukraine.” 2022. The Lawfare Podcast. https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-matt-tait-cybersecurity-ukraine

Mstyslav Chernov. 2022. “20 Days in Mariupol: The team that documented city’s agony.” Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede

On the Xi/Biden meeting (featuring an interview with Marcus Holmes at about 7:30):

“US and China Meetings.” 14 Nov. 2022. BBC Newshour. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yfc9phms8w4

John Mearsheimer’s interview with Isaac Chotinier:

Isaac Chotinier. Nov 17 2022. “John Mearsheimer on Putin’s Ambitions After Nine Months of War.” New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

Cheap Talk ends the semester with a mailbag episode: State dinners; celebrities and national interest; AI and international relations; sports diplomacy and the World Cup; President Biden’s willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin; and Marcus admits he doesn’t like soccer

Thanks to all those who contributed questions. Leave a message for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Looking for a holiday gift for the international affairs nerd in your life? We humbly suggest the following:

Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (Coming out on December 22!) (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)

Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes (https://www.amazon.com/Face-Face-Diplomacy-Marcus-Holmes-ebook/dp/B07952GT58/)

AI Links:

ChatGPT (https://chat.openai.com)

Kelsey Piper. Aug. 13, 2020. “GPT-3, explained: This new language AI is uncanny, funny — and a big deal.” Vox.com (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21355768/gpt-3-ai-openai-turing-test-language)

Ethan Mollick. Dec. 8, 2022. “Four Paths to the Revelation.” One Useful Thing Substack. (https://oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/four-paths-to-the-revelation)

Movie and TV Recommendations:

Welcome to Wrexham (Streaming on Hulu)

Slash/Back (Streaming on AMC+)

The Bureau (Streaming on AMC+)

Dispatches from Elsewhere (Streaming on AMC+)

Pepsi, Where’s My Jet? (Streaming on Netflix)

We’ll be back with new episodes in late January. Subscribe now in your podcast player of choice so you don’t miss anything. Just enter this custom URL: http://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk?format=rss


- In Apple Podcasts, tap “Library” on the bottom row, tap “Edit” in the upper-right corner, and choose “Add a Show by URL...”


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Best wishes for a happy holiday and new year! We'll see you in 2023.

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return from its winter hiatus: Evaluating the lasting impact of the COVID pandemic (if any) on international affairs; preparedness for the next pandemic; COVID and domestic politics; the supply chain and decoupling from China; domestic protests in China; the nonissue of vaccine diplomacy; and Marcus misattributes an often misinterpreted quote

Leave feedback or ask a question for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Further Reading
W. Joseph Campbell. 2011. “‘Too early to say’: Zhou was speaking about 1968, not 1789.” Media Myth Alert. https://mediamythalert.com/2011/06/14/too-early-to-say-zhou-was-speaking-about-1968-not-1789/

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk’s very special balloon-themed episode: China’s spy balloon; the effect on diplomacy when spying becomes public; the intelligence value of spy balloons; why the US failed to deploy its giant balloon net; the risk of balloon-related escalation; the trajectory of the US-China relationship; and Marcus explains his criteria for riding in flying objects

Recommended Valentine's Day gifts for loved ones or enemies:

Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)

Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes (https://www.amazon.com/Face-Face-Diplomacy-Marcus-Holmes-ebook/dp/B07952GT58/)

Give us feedback or ask a question for a future podcast at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

We’re on Apple Podcasts and Spotify; an excellent book is on sale; the Last of Us is not a zombie show; China threatens a balloon response; we are seeing more flying objects; risk reduction and diplomacy between the United States and China; President Biden visits Kyiv; and Marcus explains the role of aliens in political science theory

What should we talk about in future episodes? Let us know at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk or cheaptalkpod@gmail.com.

Further reading:
Now on sale! Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (https://www.amazon.com/Signing-Away-Bomb-Surprising-Nonproliferation/dp/1009216732)

Zack Sharf. 2023. ‘The Last of Us’ Crew Was ‘Banned’ From Saying Zombie on Set: ‘We Weren’t Allowed to Say the Z Word.’ Variety. (https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/the-last-of-us-crew-banned-saying-zombie-set-1235522423/)

Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall. 2008. “Sovereignty and the UFO.” Political Theory 36(4): 607–633. (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0090591708317902)

Russia bails on the New START arms control treaty; Putin and prospect theory; the short and long term effects of the treaty suspension; why we have arms control treaties in the first place; overlapping international agreements; taking stock of Russia’s invasion one year in; European security transformed; the relevance of nuclear risk and nuclear deterrence today; and Marcus embraces conspiracy theories

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voice message

Further listening:
On the nuclear taboo: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Outside the Bounds of Reasonable Behavior.” Season 1, Episode 3.

On international institutions: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2020. “Our Expectations Are Too High.” Season 1, Episode 4.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Russia’s international status and reputation after the invasion of Ukraine; TikTok and Huawei as threats to US national security; the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons development; and Marcus has too many distractions in his life

Send us feedback or ideas for future podcasts at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voice message

Further reading/watching
Jonathan Renshon. 2017. Fighting for Status. Princeton University Press.
“Putin’s Missed Handshakes” video
@unclogging_drains on TikTok

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The TikTok situation escalates; Russia pulls a reverse TikTok; the first image of the state; what is a state, anyway; AI tools are lying to us; Xi goes to Moscow; Russia harasses a US drone; and Marcus believes states are disembodied people with feelings and emotions

Send us feedback at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voice message

Further reading/watching:
Sara Morrison. 2023. “Is TikTok too big to ban?” Vox.com.

Reuters. 2023. “Kremlin tells officials to stop using iPhones – Kommersant newspaper.”

Video of Russian aircraft intercepting US drone over Black Sea.

Rose Gottemoeller. 2023. “The Role of U.S. Diplomacy in Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats and Misbehavior.” Texas National Security Review 6(2).

Blackberry – Official Trailer

The latest AI tools:
ChatGPT (GPT-4 is available to “plus” users who pay for access)

Bing AI

Google’s Bard

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Nikki Haley’s experience at the United Nations; what it means to be a US ambassador; Russia’s statement about nuclear weapons in Belarus; the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin; credibility in international institutions; the power of international law on the margins; and Marcus considers future podcast guests

Send us comments or questions at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or leave us a voicemail.

Further reading:
Courtney Subramanian. 2023. “Garcetti sworn in as ambassador to India after two-year battle.” Los Angeles Times.

American Foreign Service Association. “Ambassador Tracker.”

Francesca Ebel. 2023. “West warns Putin against ‘dangerous’ nuclear rhetoric but downplays threat.” Washington Post.

Michael R. Gordon. 2023. “U.S. Stops Sharing Data on Nuclear Forces With Russia.” Wall Street Journal.

Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu and Jack Detsch. 2023. “Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes.” Foreign Policy.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Looking back on the Iraq war after 20 years (and 1 month); lingering uncertainty about the reasons for the US invasion; the role (or lack thereof) of groupthink in that decision; the intelligence community’s judgment that Iraq had WMD and was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program; why the intelligence community got it wrong; lessons learned for intelligence analysis; the long-term repercussions of the Iraq war; and Marcus puts his cards on the table

Ask a question or leave a comment at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk.

Further reading:
Max Fisher. 2023. “20 Years On, a Questions Lingers About Iraq: Why Did the U.S. Invade?” The New York Times.

US Director of Central Intelligence. 2002. “Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction.” National Intelligence Estimate. National Security Archive.

“War With Iraq Is Not In America’s National Interest.” 2002. The New York Times.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The Discord intelligence leak; what we learned from the information; Egypt’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; China’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; US restraint and China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict; how the leaker’s motives compare to other famous leaks; how the internet makes intelligence releases more damaging; assessing the intelligence impact of the leaks; the trade-off between intelligence sharing and the risk of leaks; and Marcus is a big lover of humans

Leave a comment or question at cheaptalkpod@gmail.com or speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Further reading:
Adam Taylor. 2023. “The biggest revelations from The Post’s document leaks investigation.” The Washington Post.

Matt Tait. 2023. “Pentagon Leaks: What’s the Damage?” PwnAllTheThings Substack.

Valerie Plame Wilson. 2008. Fair Game: How a Top CIA Agent Was Betrayed by Her Own Government. Simon & Schuster.

“Cobblestone treadmill patent would eliminate running on pesky smooth surface.” 2009. TechCrunch.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Social identity theory and international relations; the behavior of rogue states; US nuclear assurance to South Korea; the risk from deepfakes and how to address them; the current state of sports diplomacy; and Marcus is a complicated individual

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Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode

Further Reading:
Peter Baker and David E. Sanger. “In Turn to Deterrence, Biden Vows ‘End’ of North Korean Regime if It Attacks.” The New York Times.

Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2022. “State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions: Evidence from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” Journal of Global Security Studies 7(1).

Vipin Narang. 2017. “Why Kim Jong Un wouldn’t be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first.” The Washington Post.

Claire Parker and Ana Vanessa Herrero. 2022. “Colombia discovers two shipwrecks, releases new images of sunken treasure.” The Washington Post.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

A special summer episode of Cheap Talk: Hypersonic missiles and missile defense in Ukraine; signaling and the defense of Bakhmut; Ukraine’s path to NATO membership; alien spacecraft on earth; Apple’s Vision Pro announcement; diplomacy in virtual reality; military applications of augmented reality; and Marcus sympathizes with alien whistleblowers

Subscribe and leave a review in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode, via email or voicemail

Further reading:
Phillips P. OBrien. 2023. “Weekend Update #31.” Phillips’s Newsletter Substack.

Leslie Kean and Ralph Blumenthal. 2023. “Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin.” The Debrief.

Apple’s Vision Pro

First impressions video: Marques Brownlee. 2023. “Apple Vision Pro Impressions!”

Amanda M. Buch, David M. Eagleman, and Logan Grosenick. 2022. “Engineering Diplomacy: How AI and Human Augmentation Could Remake the Art of Foreign Relations.” Science and Diplomacy.

“Sweden first to open embassy in Second Life.” 2007. Reuters.

Scott Padgett. ““The Virtual Sixth Sense” - Transforming Soldier Lethality Through Artificial Intelligence & Augmented Reality.” 2019. Small Wars Journal.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Cheap Talk’s Season 4 Premiere: The trilateral alliance visits Camp David; US reassurance and nuclear proliferation in Asia; AI and international crises; computers can be biased, three not-very-persuasive arguments against US support for Ukraine; and Marcus racks up the frequent flier miles

Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice (and please leave a review!)

Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode, via email or voice message

Further reading:
Marcus Holmes and Nicholas J. Wheeler. 2023. “Reaffirming alliance: The crucial importance of the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit.” The Hill.

Saruta Sayo, Frank O’Donnell, and Eunil Cho. 2023. “What does the US-Japan-South Korea summit at Camp David mean for the Asia-Pacific?” Asis-Pacific Leadership Network.

Cathy O’Neil. 2017. “The era of blind faith in big data must end.” TED Talk.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Kim Jong-Un’s takes the slow train to Russia; a refresher on the value of high-level summitry; Russia’s need for military supplies and what this says about the effectiveness of sanctions; the signal sent by Ukraine’s counteroffensive; setting expectations for military operations; and Marcus is impressed by the train

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Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode, via email or voicemail

Further reading:
Research on summitry by Minseon Ku.

Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Thomas Gibbons-Neff. 2023. “Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say.” New York Times.

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. 2023. “Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months.” War on the Rocks.

Photo of treadmill with uneven terrain, from Alexandra S. Voloshina, Arthur D. Kuo, Monica A Daley, and Daniel P Ferris. 2013. “Biomechanics and energetics of walking on uneven terrain.” Journal of Experimental Biology.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Analyzing a possible US defense alliance with Saudi Arabia; sports diplomacy and sportswashing; Zelensky’s speech at the UN General Assembly; and Marcus is confused

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Email your questions and comments or leave a voicemail for a future podcast episode

Further reading:
Edward Wong and Mark Mazzetti. 2023. “Biden Aides and Saudis Explore Defense Treaty Modeled After Asian Pacts.” New York Times.

Drew Richardson. 2023. “Saudi crown prince says he will keep ‘sportswashing’ as criticism of the practice grows.” CNBC.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The dysfunction of the UN Security Council; how various IR traditions look at international institutions; why measuring the UN’s effectiveness is difficult; structural problems with the UN; where UN decisions are actually made; the UN is more than the Security Council; the value of diplomacy; potential UN reform; international security forum shopping; and Marcus struggles to summarize a Sherlock Holmes story

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Thank you for your questions and comments! You can reach us via email or voicemail

Further Reading:
Farnaz Fassihi. 2023. “The World Has Changed, but Can the U.N.? Don’t Hold Your Breath.” New York Times.

Universal Postal Union. “About UPU remuneration.”

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Birthday wishes; US political dysfunction and international politics; the second image reversed; the Trump candidacy and foreign policy; space diplomacy; anti-satellite weapons; cross-domain deterrence; the McDonalds peace theory; and Marcus has read a Tom Friedman book

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further reading:
Peter Baker. 2023. “To the World, McCarthy’s Exit Is Just Another Example of U.S. Disarray.” New York Times.

Robert M. Gates. 2023. “The Dysfunctional Superpower: Can a Divided America Deter China and Russia?” Foreign Affairs.

Victoria Kim. 2023. “Elon Musk Acknowledges Withholding Satellite Service to Thwart Ukrainian Attack.” New York Times.

Erik Gartzke. 2007. “The Capitalist Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 51(1): 166–191.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The war in Israel; it is ok to turn off the newsfeed; intelligence and security failures; why Hamas conducted this attack at this time; normalization with Israel; the role of Iran; US deterrence and military aid; Israel’s impending ground war; the tragedy of civilians caught in conflict; broader implications for international security; deterring terrorism; and Marcus is not doing well

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further reading:
Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara Walter. 2006. “The Strategies of Terrorism.” International Security 31(1): 49–80.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

What’s going on in Israel and Gaza; President Biden’s visit to Israel; analogies to 9/11 and other past events; the benefits of a biased mediator; securing humanitarian aid for Gaza; the competing Putin/Xi summit; the value of export controls on technology; and Marcus shuts the barn door after the cows or the horses have gotten out

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further reading:
Steven Erlanger. 2023. “New Global Divisions on View as Biden Goes to Israel and Putin to China.” New York Times.

Adobe Acrobat Team. 2022. “Fast-forward — comparing a 1980s supercomputer to the modern smartphone.” Adobe Blog.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Vicarious trauma from the Israel-Hamas conflict; traffic maps and other consumer data with international security implications; reasons to delay an invasion of Gaza; the risk of a wider war in the Middle East; linking military action and political goals; the challenges of fighting in an urban environment; and Marcus would like you to follow him on Strava

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further Reading:
Katelyn Jetelina and Julie Kaplow. 2023. “Social media, terrorist attacks, war, and vicarious trauma.” Your Local Epidemiologist Substack.

Olafimihan Oshin. 2023. “Google and Apple disable map functions in Israel, Gaza Strip as invasion looms.” The Hill.

Jeremy Hsu. 2018. “The Strava Heat Map and the End of Secrets.” Wired.

Helene Cooper, Adam Entous, and Eric Schmitt. 2023. “U.S. Raises Concerns About Israel’s Plan of Action in Gaza, Officials Say.” New York Times.

Daniel Byman. 2018. “Why Israel Is Stuck with Hamas.” Lawfare.

Renee Ridden and Amy O’Kruk. 2023. “Maps show the extreme population density in Gaza.” CNN.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Who is Hamas; US ideas about who governs Gaza; Israel signaling to adversaries; the US signaling to allies; Saudi Arabia may still be seeking normalization with Israel; China’s presence at an AI meeting; and Marcus wants to turn the tables

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further Reading:
The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1-2 November 2023

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Panda diplomacy; conservation versus paranoia; the correlates of the panda presence abroad; China’s intentions with regard to large bears; the effectiveness of the panda signal; the causal mechanisms behind panda diplomacy; soft (and cuddly) power; distinguishing public diplomacy from propaganda; cute animals as grand strategy; and Marcus is not a zoologist

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Contribute to a future episode by sending us an email or leaving a voicemail

Further Reading:
Edward Wong. 2023. “The End of Panda Diplomacy?” New York Times.

Falk Hartig. 2013. “Panda Diplomacy: The Cutest Part of China’s Public Diplomacy.” Hague Journal of Diplomacy 8(1): 49–78.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Panda diplomacy revisited; the State Department’s dissent channel; whether dissent cables matter; Xi and Biden meet without a a joint statement; resuming military-to-military communication; managing competition between China and the United States; the missing agreement on AI; and Marcus contemplates his Thanksgiving menu

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Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Further Reading/Watching:
Michael Crowley and Edward Wong. 2023. “State Department employees send Blinken ‘dissent’ cables over Gaza policy.” New York Times.

Michael Lee. 2023. “Biden hands China big win with military deal, experts say: 'Incredibly poor decision.’” Fox News.

Babish Culinary Universe. 2023. “Thanksgiving Recipe Marathon.” YouTube.

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2023. “The Answers to All Your Thanksgiving Questions.” YouTube.

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. Updated 2022. “The Best Crispy Roast Potatoes Ever Recipe.” Serious Eats.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The grand opening of the Cheap Talk shop at https://cheaptalk.shop; cheating at really fast chess; yet another panda update—this time from Scotland; video games as the solution to polarization and international peace; video games to strike fear into your hearts; Biden skips the climate summit; and Marcus is nothing if not consistent

Holiday shopping? Check out the brand new Cheap Talk shop!

Our books also make great gifts:
Signing Away the Bomb, by Jeffrey M. Kaplow
Face-to-Face Diplomacy, by Marcus Holmes

Please subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Further Reading:
Amit Kamath. 2023. “Hikaru Nakamura’s dig at Vladimir Kramnik over cheating accusations: ‘He doesn’t have a brain, he’s lost it.’” Indian Express.

Eduardo Medina. 2023. “Britain Says Bye-Bye to Its Only Pandas as They’ll Soon Depart for China.” New York Times.

David Wallace Lockhart. 2023. “Angus Robertson criticised by SNP colleague over China trip.” BBC.

Steffie S.Y. Kim, Ke M. Huang-Isherwood, Weiwei Zheng, and Dmitri Williams. 2022. “The art of being together: How group play can increase reciprocity, social capital, and social status in a multiplayer online game.” Computers in Human Behavior 133.

Michael D. Shear. 2023. “Harris to Stand In for Biden at U.N. Climate Conference.” New York Times.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Check out the new Cheap Talk shop at https://cheaptalk.shop; Chinese asylum seekers at the southern US border; the Beast Train; the latest Cuban espionage case and motivations for spying; why parties to conflict agree to ceasefires; the latest in the Elgin Marbles saga; royal neckwear; and Marcus has strange taste in YouTube videos

Get all your holiday gifts at the new Cheap Talk shop!

Subscribe and leave a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice

Please send us your questions! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Further Reading:
Eileen Sullivan. 2023. “Growing Numbers of Chinese Migrants Are Crossing the Southern Border.” New York Times.

Glenn Thrush, Ernesto Londoño, David C. Adams and Frances Robles. 2023. “Retired U.S. Diplomat Accused of Working as a Secret Agent for Cuba.” New York Times.

Virginia Page Fortna. 2004. Peace Time: Ceasefire Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton University Press.

Sean Coughlan and Brian Wheeler. 2023. “King’s tie features Greek flag after Elgin Marbles row.” BBC.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

The final Cheap Talk podcast of 2023: Thanks for visiting our store at cheaptalk.shop; Beast Train follow-up; EU regulation and the project of AI governance; the tension between domestic and international action; the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a poor analogy for an international agreement on AI; an agreement at the Climate Summit; non-binding agreements and screening for national preferences; the role of nuclear energy in combatting climate change; and Marcus will see you next year

Get all your holiday gifts at the new Cheap Talk shop!

We’ll be back in January, 2024. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified about new episodes.

Send us your questions via email or voicemail.

Further Reading:
Oscar Martinez. 2013. The Beast: Riding the Rails and Dodging Narcos on the Migrant Trail. Verso.

Pedro Ulteras. 2010. La Bestia.

Ian W. Fieggen. 2023. “Granny Knot Info.” Ian’s Shoelace Site.

Ian W. Fieggen. 2023. “Granny Knot Analyser.” Ian’s Shoelace Site.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Happy New Year from Cheap Talk: The top global risks in 2024; the shadow of the US presidential election; the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the dangers of risk-taking; a broader war in the Middle East; accidental conflict and North Korea; China’s economy; AI and misinformation; extreme weather and El Niño; the erosion of limits on nuclear weapons; the decline of global cooperation; and Marcus declines to make a New Year’s resolution

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Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail.

Support the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shop.

Further watching:
CGP Grey. 2020. “Your Theme” (on New Year’s themes). YouTube.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

International bright spots for 2024; democracy is still a thing; a newly aggressive Iran; Iran as a missile power; domestic political imperatives for international conflict; Pakistan’s response and the maintenance of an international reputation; an absence of diplomacy in the region; the US and multinational response to Houthi attacks; where is Saudi Arabia when you need them; whether Iran has changed its strategy; and Marcus is the psychologist in the room

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Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Support the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shop

Further Reading:
Lara Jakes and David E. Sanger. 2024. “Iran’s New Missile Fleet: Part Deterrent, Part Sales Pitch.” New York Times.

See all Cheap Talk episodes.

Doomsday clock trivia; the origins of the clock; over-interpreting what time it is; becoming desensitized to global threats; public education and advocacy around existential risk; risk assessment by the global elite; the perils of expert prediction; and Marcus thinks this is a trick question

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Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

Support the podcast by visiting our online store at cheaptalk.shop

Further reading:
“2024 Doomsday Clock Announcement.” 2024. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

“Doomsday Clock Timeline.” 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Kennette Benedict. 2023. “Answers to Common Questions.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

“Global Risks Report 2024.” 2024. World Economic Forum.

Philip E. Fetlock and Dan Gardner. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Books.

Seth Walder. 2023. “Going for 2 down 8 points: Explaining NFL analytics strategy.” ESPN.com.

See all Cheap Talk episodes

Iran and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East; the likely US response to the recent drone strike; how to cooperate in an age of conflict; barriers to working together; the role of confidence-building mechanisms in international security; the death of the dream of Korean reunification; and Marcus doesn’t want to scare the listener

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Please send us your questions or comments! Send us an email or leave us a voicemail

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What the Apple Vision Pro means for the future of international diplomacy; the essential elements necessary to realize the benefits of face-to-face diplomacy; micro-expressions and realism in virtual worlds; barriers to outsiders and the risk of eavesdropping; verifying that you’re talking to the person you think you’re talking to; the promise of training in virtual and augmented reality; and Marcus can’t wait to hear about this

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Further Reading:
Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge University Press.

Sign up for an Apple Vision Pro demo at your local Apple Store via Apple’s website

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Nicholas Wheeler joins Cheap Talk to discuss his research program in international diplomacy; personal chemistry among leaders; the security dilemma; explaining Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine; the policy utility of international theory; and Marcus is so excited

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Nick Wheeler’s books include:
Saving Strangers: Humanitarian Intervention in International Society

The Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation and Trust in World Politics (with Ken Booth)

Trusting Enemies: Interpersonal Relationships in International Conflict

Further Reading:
Marcus Holmes. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge University Press.

Robert Jervis. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press.

Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki. 2022. Debating the War in Ukraine: Counterfactual Histories and Future Possibilities. Routledge.

Stephen M. Walt. 2022. “An International Relations Theory Guide to the War in Ukraine.” Foreign Policy.

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Special guest Nicholas Wheeler returns to Cheap Talk to explain the English School of international relations; why the English School never took off in the US; methodology in IR theory; the fractionalization of IR; nuclear responsibilities; and Marcus doesn’t love sharing the spotlight

Nicholas Wheeler is @WheelerICCS on Twitter/X. You can also find him on LinkedIn and Google Scholar.

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Further Reading:
Too many to list

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How leaders matter if you believe countries are people; what would happen if Putin died; the impact of the Russian invasion two years on; what a nuclear weapon in space means for international security; space nukes and the violation of international law; and Marcus thinks every listener would agree

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Further Reading:
Rajan Menon. 2024. “Putin Has Already Lost.” New York Times.

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A rebroadcast of the October 16, 2022 episode of Cheap Talk: The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus would prefer that countries refrain from using nuclear weapons

We’ll be back with a new episode of Cheap Talk soon!

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Further Reading:
David E. Sanger. 2024. “Biden’s Armageddon Moment: When Nuclear Detonation Seemed Possible in Ukraine.” New York Times.

Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers. Free Press.

Yuen Foong Khong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press.

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Jaime Settle joins Cheap Talk to discuss her research on social media networks; pending legislation to ban TikTok; how social media influences political knowledge and mobilization; the importance of the algorithm to the social media experience; what it is like to work with Meta to conduct research on Facebook; and Marcus is not afraid to take a stand

Jaime Settle is the Cornelia Brackenridge Talbot Professor of Government and Data Science at William & Mary. Check out her work on Google Scholar.

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Read Jaime Settle’s books:
Frenemies: How Social Media Polarizes America
What Goes Without Saying: Navigating Political Discussion in America (with Taylor Carlson)

Further reading/listening:
2020 Election Research Project. 2023. “First Four Papers from US 2020 Facebook & Instagram Research Election Study Published in Science and Nature.” Medium.

Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “It Comes Down to Paranoia.”

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What is happening with the Apple Vision Pro; recent Chinese cyber activity; signaling and deterrence in the cyber domain; building and maintaining cyber trust; demonstrating a capability without losing it; the psychological impact of potential cyberattacks; managing the overall US-China relationship in the midst of cyber incidents; extending the US cyber umbrella; cyber-intrusions into the electoral system in democracies; and Marcus likes power

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Further reading/listening:
David E. Sanger and Mark Landler. 2024. “U.S. and Britain Accuse China of Cyberespionage Campaign.” New York Times.

Cheap Talk Podcast. 2023. “Giving ChatGPT Our Nuclear Codes.”

Cheap Talk recommends:
True Detective: Night Country on Max

Shogun on FX/Hulu

3 Body Problem on Netflix

World War II: From the Frontlines on Netflix

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Fragmentation in the international relations discipline; normal science versus overarching theory; insights from the International Studies Association annual conference; the best name for a political science department; the US-Japan state visit; state dinners as a signal of alliance ties; insulating the US-Japan relationship from a future Trump administration; Japan’s increasing role in defense cooperation; and Marcus prefers running uphill

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Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading:
Michael D. Shear. 2024. “To Counter China’s Rising Power, Biden Looks to Strengthen Ties With Japan.” New York Times.

Cheap Talk recommends:
Otter.ai (AI meeting notes)

Perplexity.ai (AI-powered information discovery)

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TikTok as an information-gathering platform; worries about a wider war in the Middle East; the signal sent by Iran’s attack against Israel; a missile defense success story; how technology affects the risk of escalation; Iran’s nuclear program as a potential target for Israel; cyberattacks in gray zone conflict; a chance for diplomacy to work; and Marcus is hopeful that he is right

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Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading/Listening:
Cheap Talk Podcast. March 22, 2024. “Mostly Golden Retriever Videos.” With Special Guest Jaime Settle.

Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers. 2024. “China’s Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms.” New York Times.

Gaby Del Valle. 2024. “Report: TikTok’s efforts to silo US data are ‘largely cosmetic.’” The Verge.

Cheap Talk Recommends:
Shogun (Hulu)

Love is Blind, Season 5 (Netflix)

Ripley (Netflix)

The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman (Netflix)

Magic for Humans (Netflix)

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Panda diplomacy, local edition; what is diplomacy, anyway; Israel’s retaliation against Iran; a success story for international diplomacy; a restrained response as a particular kind of signal; the TikTok ban is happening; US aid to Ukraine is happening; Russian strategy in response to this aid; US-Taiwan military collusion; and Marcus thinks things are looking up

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Jeff’s book, Signing Away the Bomb, is now available in paperback!

Further Reading:
Heather Knight. 2024. “San Francisco Mayor Gives Panda Diplomacy a Try.” New York Times.

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The role of bees in international politics; Panda diplomacy is happening; Ukraine’s tenuous position against Russia; prospects for a US/China AI arms control process; letting AI decide to deploy nuclear weapons; the State Department’s new digital and cyber strategy; and Marcus is no entomologist

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Further Reading:
Sarah Kliff. 2024. “Honeybees Invaded My House, and No One Would Help.” New York Times.

Alan Rappeport. 2024. “Giant Pandas Are Returning to San Diego, China Announces.” New York Times.

Edward Geist. 2024. “Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI.” RAND Corporation.

US Department of State. 2024. Building Digital Solidarity: The United States International Cyberspace & Digital Policy Strategy.

David E. Sanger. 2024. “A New Diplomatic Strategy Emerges as Artificial Intelligence Grows.” New York Times.

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The role of foreign affairs in the just-announced presidential debates; an international marathon update; orangutan diplomacy isn’t really diplomacy; the cutest diplomatic animals; cognac diplomacy also isn’t really diplomacy; Antony Blinken plays guitar and delivers a message of US support in Kyiv; does nuclear deterrence even work; and Marcus confesses his love for presidential debates

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Further Reading:
Detroit Free Press Marathon

Heather Chen. 2024. “An ape for palm oil? Why critics say Malaysia’s ‘orangutan diplomacy’ plan is problematic.” CNN.com.

Associated Press. 2024. “Call it Cognac Diplomacy: France offered China’s Xi a special drink, in a wink at their trade spat.”

Watch Antony Blinken play Rocking’ in the Free World in a Kyiv Bar

Paul Poast. 2024. “What We Don’t Know About Nuclear Deterrence Could Hurt Us.” World Politics Review.

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The international implications of the Trump verdict; pandas are coming back to DC; trust vs. confidence in international relations; reciprocity in the nuclear nonproliferation regime; the real-world importance of trust semantics; interpersonal vs. inter state trust; precedent and trusting relations; and Marcus trusts Canada

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Further Reading:
Andrew H. Kydd. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton University Press.

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The US allows Ukraine to strike into Russia; the effect of making this public knowledge; prospect theory and taking greater risks in the loss domain; the risk of escalation is context-dependent; wargaming as a way to understand an adversary’s response; how concerned should we be about a possible bird flu pandemic; and Marcus is a worrywart

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Leader age and international security; perceptions of experience vs. cognitive decline; does any of this matter for international outcomes; foreign policy is more than just a leader’s decisions; the problem with hotlines; and Marcus briefly considered a presidential run

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Further Reading:
Dana G. Smith. 2024. “A User’s Guide to Midlife.” New York Times.

Joshua Byun and Austin Carson. 2023. “More than a Number: Aging Leaders in International Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 67(1).

Christian Ruhl. 2024. “Beijing is unavailable to take your call: Why the US-China crisis hotline doesn’t work.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

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The foreign policy implications of recent US news; a bad day for Vladimir Putin; Harris’ likely foreign policy; the role of the Vice President in international affairs; assassination attempts as a signal of vulnerability; international norms against assassination; and Marcus is keeping up with the news

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Further Reading:
Joshua Byun and Austin Carson. 2024. “The Senile Superpower?” Foreign Affairs.

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Cheap Talk makes a triumphant return for its 5th season: sauna diplomacy; what Olympic medal counts say about international prestige; our new secret nuclear plan; transparency and nuclear deterrence; Ukraine’s Kursk offensive; political vs. military goals in Ukraine; US restrictions on Ukraine’s military efforts; and Marcus discovers long-standing concepts in international relations

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Further Reading:
Alyson Krueger. 2024. ‘Whatever Happens in the Sauna Stays in the Sauna’: Diplomacy, Conducted in the Nude.” The New York Times.

Robbie Gramer. 2023. “The Finnish Art of Sauna Diplomacy.” Foreign Policy.

J. Patrick Rhamey, Jr. and Bryan R. Early. 2013. “Going for the gold: Status-seeking behavior and Olympic performance.” International Area Studies Review 16(3): 244-261.

Trash balloons on the Korean Peninsula; unification policy and public diplomacy; checking in on anarchy in the international system; why there isn’t a world government; reasons to study (or ignore) international relations paradigms; the importance of thinking big thoughts in IR; and Marcus reveals he is anti-science

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Please send us your questions or comments!

Further reading:
Jin Yu Young. 2024. “North Korea Launches New Salvo of Balloons, but the South Barely Shrugs.” New York Times.

David A. Lake. 2009. Hierarchy in International Relations. Cornell University Press.

David A. Lake. 2011. “Why "isms" Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, and Academic Sects as Impediments to Understanding and Progress.” International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 465–480.

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M.Walt. 2013. “Leaving theory behind: Why simplistic hypothesis testing is bad for International Relations.” European Journal of International Relations 19(3): 427–457.

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The exploding pager attacks in Lebanon; the use of pagers as communications infrastructure; supply chain vulnerabilities; the supposed safety of outdated technology; Israeli motivations for the attacks; the risk of escalation in the Middle East; and Marcus consults a focus group

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Israel’s aims in its attacks on Hezbollah; Iran’s role in the current conflict; what is a crisis, really; the US perspective; how to get to a ceasefire from here; OpenAI’s new ChatGPT model; evaluating model risk; deceptive alignment; and Marcus is still an AI optimist

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Further reading:
OpenAI. 2024. “OpenAI o1 System Card.”

Signal Samuel. 2024. “The new followup to ChatGPT is scarily good at deception,” Vox.

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The chain of events that led to Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah; what could lead to a cessation of hostilities; Iran’s attack on Israel and Israel’s possible response; calls for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program; the folly of “restoring deterrence” in the Middle East; diminished US leverage; and Marcus is still undecided

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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How long it would take for Iran to have a nuclear weapon; where these estimates come from; Iran’s strategy of nuclear hedging; why the Iran deal failed and the prospects for nuclear diplomacy; Israel’s ability to strike Iran’s nuclear program; NotebookLM and the arrival of AI podcasts; and Marcus is pretty sure he’s human and not AI

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to atomic bomb survivors; the importance of living memory in international relations; the policy effect of first-person testimony; living through history and thus not repeating it; how society collectively understands history; and Marcus is not actually undecided

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Further Reading:
Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan at Hiroshima Peace Memorial, May 27, 2016.

Rebecca Davis Gibbons. 2018. “The humanitarian turn in nuclear disarmament and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.” The Nonproliferation Review 25 (1–2): 11–36.

Michael C. Horowitz, Allan C. Stam, and Cali M. Ellis. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. Cambridge University Press.

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Dan Maliniak joins Cheap Talk to discuss the recent elections in the country of Georgia; evidence of irregularities; how much of this is Russia’s fault; European identity in Georgia; the path forward from here; the little-known fact that wine started in Georgia; what the US can do; and Marcus is a big Dave Matthews Band guy

Dan Maliniak is an associate professor of government at W&M. Check out his research on Google Scholar.

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

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Further Reading/Watching:
Jesse Driscoll and F. Daniel Hidalgo. 2014. “Intended and unintended consequences of democracy promotion assistance to Georgia after the Rose Revolution.” Research & Politics 1(1).

Dave Matthews Band. 2024. Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony.

What to expect from the new Trump administration’s foreign policy; uncertainty about Trump’s foreign policy views; new risks for Ukraine; fewer limits on Israeli action in the Middle East; tariffs and trade barriers with China; poor prospects for cooperative efforts on climate change; hope for a new deal with North Korea but worries about South Korean security; the important role of foreign policy professionals in government; and Marcus will allow an opening statement if he gets a rebuttal

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Moritz Graefrath joins Cheap Talk to discuss the new international relations board game World Order; the role of IR theory in the design of the game; how board games can teach us about the world; the state of board games today; some recommendations for getting started in gaming; and Marcus doesn’t play board games

Moritz Graefrath is a Security and Foreign Policy Postdoctoral Fellow at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute. He is an academic advisor for the new board game World Order, available for backing on Kickstarter until December 5.

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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Cheap Talk records live from Williamsburg, Virginia with the students of William & Mary’s Government 204 course, Introduction to International Politics, answering questions about Ukraine, face-to-face diplomacy, the international relations paradigms, North Korea, and more; and Marcus had a good time

(Our apologies for some audio issues this week—we hope you enjoy the podcast anyway. We will be back with our usual crystal clear audio next time.)

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

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New products (and discounts!) in the Cheap Talk online store at cheaptalk.shop; heterarchy in international relations; rebel advances in Syria; continuing popular protests in Georgia; the German Chancellor visits Ukraine; and Marcus hates hand-washing coffee mugs

The Cheap Talk store has been restocked with new t-shirts, hoodies, mugs, and stickers, perfect for the IR enthusiast in your life. All new designs are on sale for a limited time. Order before 12/16 with expedited shipping to receive your items by Christmas.

Cheap Talk is taking a holiday break, but will be back with new episodes in January. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.

Please send us your questions or comments!

Further Reading/Listening:
Check out the research of Kyuri Park at kyuripark.com

Dan Maliniak on Cheap Talk