At Any Rate (J.P. Morgan Global Research)

Our long-held view remains unchanged: we project Brent oil to average $84/bbl in the third quarter and hit another $90 by August/September, underpinned by our expectations that global demand will outpace supply in the summer quarter. Demand indicators look solid, especially in the all-important US market and peak refinery demand for crude is now firmly in place and should last through August. Meanwhile, OPEC waterborne crude exports are trending at their lowest monthly volumes in two years so far in June. Crucially, despite the 10% price rally, the short base by speculative investors has not been closed, with more room for financial demand to recover.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita and Junya Tanase discuss the outlook for Japanese macro, BoJ policy and the Yen.

Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ayako Fujita, Economic and Policy Research Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research

This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691315-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4702881-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

On this episode, Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent events in Europe on Treasury market liquidity, as well as their takeaways from the downside surprise in May CPI and their thoughts ahead for US rates and inflation markets. They are hesitant to take too much signal from the weakness in core inflation in May and still expect the first rate cut in November.

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725284-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest themes in US interest rate derivatives markets.

Speakers: 

Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4722179-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges recap Treasury’s November refunding announcement and the expectations for issuance over the medium term.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832276-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

LME copper prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, jumping above $11,000/mt this morning with COMEX prices in the US still trading at a significant premium to the global LME benchmark. The massive widening of the COMEX/LME copper arb over the last week is more about positioning and inventory tightness in the US specifically and not reflective of a tight broader global refined copper market just yet. We remain structurally medium-term bullish on copper prices over the next two years as constrained mine supply is not going to alleviate quickly but current price levels are running well ahead of global refined market fundamentals at the moment. China’s refined market appears loose as demand is being deferred and delayed amid high copper prices while refined supply has stayed strong. A temporary correction in copper prices could be healthy to kick start Chinese demand and lay the groundwork for another eventual push even higher.

Speaker: Gregory Shearer

This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4701703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We cut through the noise to explore the policies that will be prioritized by any new administration, regardless of the election outcome, and asses their implications for commodities markets. The top priority for both administrations is to ensure the security of supply in energy and minerals and to lower energy prices to curb inflation. Debasement trades are likely to perform well under any administration, though could get further supercharged under a Republican sweep. Gold stands out as the commodity of choice for hedging the US elections.

Speakers: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 1, November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832733-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman & James Nelligan break down the currency implications from a range of policy meetings and key economic data across Europe and Australia/New Zealand.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728769-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss how this week’s labor markets data shift the debate over Fed policy, and how greater policy uncertainty has implications for the rates, curve and vol. They also discuss recent developments in funding markets and the implications for Quantitative Tightening

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy

Srini Ramaswamy ,Co-Head, US Rates Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809111-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810186-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4807300-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the impact of the upcoming election on Rates markets, as well as Fed’s balance sheet policy and monetary policy expectations.

Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818573-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4823172-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Our balances suggest a ~1.0 mbd deficit in oil liquids in 3Q, comprised of a large 1.6 mbd surplus in products, but a massive 2.4 mbd draw in crude. This dichotomy represents a historic norm in terms of direction, but is an anomaly in terms of scale. Supply and demand so far have performed largely in line with our expectations, but if there is a weak spot in our balances, it would likely be on the refining side. Throughout this year we have been consistently downgrading our projections for growth in global processing rates for 2024, and now see only 1 mbd growth this year vs 1.8 mbd originally. We maintain our long-held view that Brent oil will reach $90 by September, average $84 in the third quarter and $83 for the year, before dropping into mid-$60s in 4Q25.

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4740131-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

We believe the recent pullback in commodities is just that—a pullback—and we continue to see a 10% appreciation in the broader BCOM Commodities index by year-end. Underpinning our constructive BCOM and sectorial recommendations is the expectation that in addition to supportive fundamentals over the next two and a half months commodities would be likely exposed to a confluence of forces, among them weather-related volatility and pests, but also European Parliamentary elections, China’s Third Plenum and the onset of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.

This podcast was recorded on 21 June2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717019-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & Arindam Sandilya survey current investor sentiment around the FX asset class, and discuss implications of recent shifts in the US political landscape for the broad dollar.

This podcast was recorded on 22 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750793-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750927-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751397-0

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

2 mbd of crude inventory draw since the end of June bring global stocks to their lowest level since 2017, confirming the resilience of global demand. Yet a substantially softer balance in 2025 is forcing the market to search for a price that will prevent OPEC+ from bringing volumes that are not needed. At current levels of inventories, we believe oil is $10 under-valued and under-owned. Yet, given oil’s significant underperformance in August, we shave our 4Q24 price forecast from $85 to $80, but keep 2025 unchanged at $75.

This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept. 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779731-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and James Nelligan discuss the non-linear links between central bank easing cycles and currencies in the context of upcoming Fed cuts.

Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on August 16, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in H2, focusing also on the various channels in which the upcoming US election - which looks set to dominate H2 - can impact EM economies and fixed income markets.

Speakers

Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research

Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy

Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713698-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Oil prices have been moving higher as the market anticipates Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike earlier this week. Since last October, we have recommended selling geopolitical premium in oil, this time, however, it feels different. We assume that attacking Iran’s energy facilities would not be Israel’s preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran’s possible escalation. We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries. Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inventories, the odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the evolving macro backdrop and how geopolitical events can impact EM assets.

Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Fabio Bassi and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. They cover the upcoming May ECB meeting, valuations in swap and bond space views on swap spreads, the upcoming French ratings review and the relevance of European Parliamentary and the UK general election for rate markets. 

This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan hosted its annual Global Markets Conference in Paris on 15-17 May. Judging from the speaker comments and questions from the audience, participants at the conference appeared rather sanguine about the US and global economic outlook. In this podcast the Macro Research team discusses their key takeaways from the sessions and conversations with investors, which covered a range of topics including the prospects for US soft landing, potential divergence between the Fed and other central bank easing cycles, geopolitical risks and the market implications of the US elections. 

Speakers Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research Jay Barry, Co-head of US Rates Strategy Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy Meera Chandan, Co-head of FX Strategy Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704635-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700508-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan’s US Rates strategy team discusses their high-level themes from their recently published 2025 US Fixed Income Markets Outlook.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy

Srini Ramaswamy, Global Rates Derivatives Strategy

Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy

Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 4 December, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849383-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the outlook for European rates markets over 2025.

This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

On the cusp of a Fed cutting cycle with US labor markets softening and the US election news cycle turning increasingly volatile in the run up to November, we maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold and silver. Even if the coming Fed cutting cycle comes with twists and turns given potential post-election US policy changes, we still think gold sits in a prime position. While physical demand in China has cooled for now, structurally bullish drivers including US fiscal deficit concerns, central bank reserve diversification amid de-dollarization, inflation hedging, and simmering geopolitical risk all look set to remain supportive factors for gold and silver.

Speakers:

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4740899-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

During this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Tracey Allen, head of agricultural research will discuss takeaways from London Sugar Week and share an update on the state of agri markets and risks to watch out for following World Food Day on 16 October.

Speaker:

Tracey Allen, Head of Global Agricultural Research

This podcast was recorded on 18, October, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818658-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810174-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, Antonin Delair, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the the main macro FX themes for 2H. They highlight a constructive USD backdrop, yield compression, US elections and policy RV as the main themes.

This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting, funding dynamics and swap spreads as the UK budget at the end of this month.

This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817582-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Strategists Francis Diamond, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Aditya Chordia discuss the first round of voting in the French elections, implications for the outcome after the second round and the recent reaction in French spreads and broader European fixed income markets. They also touch briefly on the upcoming UK general election.

This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736223-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736551-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4732647-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4804070-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Is China’s policy blitz a game-changer for commodities and FX? We discuss the read-through. Maintain bearish oil and bullish copper forecasts. On paper, this should be the valley of the dollar smile but upcoming US election makes this an uncomfortable proposition. SNB didn’t push back on CHF strength, which is a green light for more appreciation.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy  Tracey Allen, Global Commodities Research  Greg Shearer, Global Commodities Research   James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803864-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

JPMorgan's strategists specializing in the Treasury, Inflation, Short Term and Derivatives markets discuss their views over the remainder of the year.

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Executive Director, U.S. Government Bonds

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy

Jay Barry, Managing Director and co-head of US Rates Strategy 

Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy 

Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on July 8, 2024. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/scx/-va7mace/FD6ajB__KxREVg3CXo4bYw/GPS-4735741-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.

Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy  Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research 

This podcast was recorded on August 14, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4764990-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the impressive growth of MMF AUMs this year and why the easing cycle is not going to immediately lead to outflows.  They also discuss MMF portfolio positioning and MMF reform.

Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799375-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803107-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, and Phoebe White discuss recent developments in funding markets and how that may influence the path for QT. They also preview the August refunding and discuss next week’s FOMC meeting.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy

Teresa Ho, Head, US Short Duration Strategy 

Phoebe White, Head, US Inflation Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4754513-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4753546-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747894-0 GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The events of the past few weeks, President Biden’s poor debate performance, followed by Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, have led to a clear shift in the tone of the elections and increased the probability for a sizable Red Wave. Given the range of scenarios that could play out, gold stands out as a winner. The first edition of our Commodities 2024 US Elections Watch focused on implications for the commodities under a split Congress outcome, now we assess what GOP control of all Washington levers of power could mean for the sector.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4746885-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on European rate markets following a busy week of events with the US election, Riksbank, Norges Bank and BoE meetings and the collapse of the German coalition government.

Speakers: Francis Diamond, Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4836095-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Lorenzo Ravagli, Ladislav Jankovic, and Juan Duran-Vara discuss the H2 outlook for FX Derivatives.

This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally.

Speaker:

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Acknowledging the notable slowdown in drilling activity, we now expect annual US crude oil output, including condensate, to increase by 362 kbd in 2024 and 395 kbd in 2025. While oil recovered per foot drilled in the US shale basins fell 12% since its peak in 2021, operational efficiencies, which began being implemented more widely last year, are more than offsetting declining productivity and relatively low rig count. On annualized basis, we project another 400 kbd growth in US NGLs supply in 2024 and an additional 350 kbd in 2025. Combined, we estimate total US oil liquids production will grow by 762 kbd in 2024 and 745 kbd in 2025.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research 

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708264-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748583-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe white discuss trends in Treasury market liquidity. Trading volumes have increased, market depth and microstructure data indicate improved liquidity as well, but off-the-run dispersion has increased, and dealer inventories have climbed recently. Overall Treasury market functioning seems to be sitting at post-pandemic averages.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy

Phoebe White, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724030-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Description: Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.

This podcast was recorded on November 12, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis in their recently published update on Euro area government bonds demand.

This podcast was recorded on10 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4787964-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, we discuss our recently launched default outlook for 2025. Our 2025 EM Corporate HY default forecast is 2.7%. If achieved, it will be another below average default year, extending the improvement trend from 7-14% default rates between 2021-2023. Such default rates would also be modestly below DM credit. Regionally, we expect 3.0% for Asia, 3.4% for Latin America, 2.8% for EM Europe, and 0.5% for Middle East & Africa. In this discussion, we cover the drivers of our sanguine expectations, differentiation by region and segment, as well as risks to our base case expectations.  

Speakers Yang-Myung Hong, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy

Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 25 Oct 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the implications of US inflation and the FOMC, as well as recent vol shocks for the dollar and FX markets.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry talk through the US employment data, Fedspeak and the outlook for US rates/ FX markets following a rollercoaster Friday.

Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789008-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790005-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges discuss the medium-term outlook for Treasury supply and the risks to the Treasury market ahead of next week’s first-tier data.

Speakers:

US Treasury Market Daily – Jay Barry

US Fixed Income Markets Weekly – Jay Barry

This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708661-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

Speakers:  

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research

Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 18 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720176-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704389-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss implications of recent rates compression for the dollar & global FX. We also discuss the outlook for EUR/USD, as well as the FX implications from US disinflation outpacing other parts of the world.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 23 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779820-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Take a seat at the table as Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Andrew Crook, Managing Director, Head of European High Yield, Leveraged Loan and Convertible Sales and Global Head of Macro Credit Sales and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, unpack the top takeaways for credit markets from the recently concluded J.P. Morgan Global Markets Conference in Paris.

Speakers Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research Andrew Crook, Head of European High Yield, Leveraged Loan and Convertible Sales and Global Head of Macro Credit Sales Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research

This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666611-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan discuss the path ahead for the French lower house elections in the coming weeks as well as implications for FX / rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on 11 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4721981-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723118-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723362-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

President-elect Trump will return to the White House in January with a commitment to rapidly defeat inflation by lowering energy prices. Trump’s energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased US production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues. But with US oil supply growth moderating and GCC countries unlikely to offset lost exports, any policies that might raise oil prices will likely defer to Trump’s key objective of maintaining low energy prices. Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices. Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd surplus and an average Brent of $73, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64. In 2026, another year of large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by year-end, with an average Brent forecast of $61 and WTI at $57.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 22, November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840755-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui analyse the multiple global and EM-specific drivers of rise in volatility hitting EM markets.

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Take a seat at the table as we unpack key takeaways from our recently concluded annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference in London and highlight top themes in this special episode of At Any Rate.

Speakers:

Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM

Ayomide Mejabi, Frontier Market Strategy

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy

Gbolahan Taiwo, Chief Economist, Africa (ex-SA) Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research

This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717869-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and Pankaj Vohra discuss what is driving/will drive the growth of the stablecoin market YTD and going forward, how their growth could have implications for the Treasury market, and other complementary developments in this space.

Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, Short Duration Strategy

This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4698337-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their takeaways from the September CPI report, the recent volatility in rates and inflation markets, and thoughts on Fed balance sheet policy following the most recent FOMC meeting minutes. With Treasury valuations somewhat cheap and positioning now short, we think yields have limited further room to rise. Inflation breakeven should also find stability though risks remain two-sided at these levels.

Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Phoebe White ,Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report athttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4815265-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for yen flows with focus on GPIF, the dollar’s reaction to CPI & payrolls, and the implications of the latest data for EUR, GBP and Scandi FX.

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We run through the expected impact on FX from different US election outcome scenarios and we provide an overview of relevant FX hedges.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4812241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Benjamin Shatil discuss the outlook for BoJ ahead and the Yen ahead of next week’s BOJ and Fed monetary policy meetings.

Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, Economic & Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4755666-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

It took an escalation in Iran-Israel tensions and the optimism generated by the Chinese government’s stimulus efforts to lift oil out of its three-month downward trajectory.  Nevertheless, sustaining bullish price momentum in oil has proven to be a high maintenance task: without additional catalysts, the ‘war’ and ‘stimulus’ premiums have been prone to fading. While possible, Israel is likely to avoid Iranian oil infrastructure. Conversely, the rising expectations for RMB 2 trn fiscal stimulus are likely to be met.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 11, October, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4814501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss how EM asset markets are looking ahead of the US election and takeaways from the recent Washington conferences.

This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. 

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the Fed’s new tool, Reserve Demand Elasticity, and its use of the fed funds rate and aggregate reserves to measure in real-time the ampleness of reserves in the banking system. They also discuss some interesting findings from MMFs’ September holdings.

Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

China’s imports of commodities are at all-time highs, in stark contrast to the wider, faltering macroeconomic growth in the country. As the world’s single largest consumer of commodities, China has three main sources of vulnerability: (i) it has abundant domestic resources of coal and rare earth but is relatively poor in others, (ii) with only 7% of the world’s arable land and limited fresh water resources, the country feeds about 20% of the world’s population, and (iii) most commodities are shipped to China via eight marine choke points—including the Strait of Malacca—over which the US has significant influence. To ensure the long-term security of strategic commodities, China is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: (i) more efficient development of domestic mineral and agricultural resources, (ii) establish control of resource bases overseas via equity stakes and partnerships, and (iii) build-up of strategic stockpiles. Given the increasing share of China-owned assets in the country’s total commodity import mix and China’s goal to boost its strategic reserves, the nation’s imports of natural resources will continue to grow.

This podcast was recorded on 3 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4466326-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the extreme volatility in global markets impacting EM assets, how to assess the risk outlook and whether to adjust views around EM markets..

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Global FX strategy team provides a round-up of the year-ahead outlook.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global FX Strategy  Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4851138-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.

Speakers:

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4842530-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the impact of US elections on the euro. But a less discussed question is what the Euro area response to mitigate any such trade conflict will be. Greg Fuzesi and Meera Chandan discuss the economic, policy and FX impact, if tariff risks are realized.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4826699-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research

The market’s verdict on the OPEC+ decision was likely behind the 6% fall in oil prices this week. The producers’ group extended its 3.6 mbd of supply reductions through 2025, but it also announced plans to gradually unwind 2.2 mbd of voluntary cuts starting in October, subject to market conditions. On paper, this additional production would clearly be bearish for prices. However, there are important details that need to be taken into account. For one, a number of key OPEC producers are already pumping well above their assigned quotas. Second, many OPEC producers are already operating at close to full capacity. We maintain our view that summer inventory draws should be enough to get Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September, but are aware that OPEC+’s intention—even if aspirational—to produce more, might have a psychological effect on consumers’ willingness to replenish inventories.

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717071-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Trump Presidency and the widely expected Red Sweep amplifies USD exceptionalism on multiple channels......President Trump’s proclamation for the US thus applies to the dollar as well. Indeed, no other currency has what the dollar has: superior growth and equities, higher yield, defensive characteristics.  We discuss outlook for the dollar post US elections and discuss the various DM central banks meetings over the past week.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840351-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We run through takeaways from the week thinking about the ECB, UK data, Asia FX and Antipodean FX, as well as dollar outperformance.

Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4821551-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

Speakers: 

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research

Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research

This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4811273-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan Interest Rate Strategist Phoebe White and US economist Mike Hanson discuss their takeaways from the July CPI report, the path ahead for Fed policy, and what we may (or may not) learn from Chair Powell at next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. They also provide their views on rates and inflation markets following recent volatility.

Speakers:

Phoebe White

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773440-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-TXGZRLBR for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

Agri commodity markets have been in short covering mode since early August after investors established an historic short seasonal position. Prices are now entering a period of strongly positive seasonality, while the fundamental outlook is trending increasingly constructive. Weather risks persist, and dry conditions are shaving yield potential off US crops, reducing European wheat production, threatening Brazil’s sugar output and raising concern for South American soybean planting delays. Meanwhile geopolitical premium is back on the table...just as the FAO Food Price Index had started to stabilize.

This podcast was recorded on 13 Sept. 2024

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This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792960-0,, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4793313-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4785154-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.

Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist  Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In the past two weeks, US Henry Hub and European TTF have rallied in price significantly. With US prices at one point climbing above $2.70/MMBtu and TTF crossing 35 EUR/MWh, we will discuss the drivers of these price moves higher, including the reduction in supply currently in place - both in US production and global LNG supply -  and the fundamental changes that we expect to see as a result of the recent price rally. Additionally, we will dive deeper into headlines surrounding Golden Pass and the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, which could have implications to our current price forecast.

Speakers:  

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4705416-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and Octavia Popescu discuss the outlook for the Scandinavian economies, rates, and FX over 2025.

This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4855621-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4707597-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The valley of the dollar smile proved to be treacherous after all, with payrolls and other strong US data catapulting us back into US exceptionalism. Our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for currency markets following the strong jobs data, including impacts on the broad dollar and funding currencies as well as recent developments in European FX.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809182-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. French politics is the focus for Euro rate markets and with the situation fluid they discuss what has changed over the past few days and how that impacts on view on French spread and other intra-EMU spreads. They also touch on UK political developments this past week and the June BoE meeting.

Speakers:

Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy

Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723970-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research to unpack the key takeaways from the recently concluded European High Yield  Leveraged Finance conference in London.

Speakers Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on September 11, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790088-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Not for the faint hearted.

Speakers

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy Juan Duran-Vara, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845566-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their thoughts on US interest rate derivatives markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist 

This podcast was recorded on 9/16/24.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792463-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research and Strategy and Amy Sze who heads ABS Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

Speakers:

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research

Amy Sze, Head of ABS Research

This podcast was recorded on July 23rd, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4744651-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751803-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0, for more information please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

FX markets are finally behaving as expected post-US elections. Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the path ahead and outline why the FX moves are not yet done.

This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4846770-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840487-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists James Nelligan, Patrick Locke & Junya Tanase unpack the FX implications from a loaded week that featured the Fed and BoJ, and discuss implications for low-yielding currencies against more cyclical FX going forward.

This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4798218-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Last month our team published “EM as an Asset Class Evolves and Diversifies,” an update of the EM as an Asset Class series that J.P. Morgan research has been producing over the past two decades. In the report we take a longer-term look at how the outlook for EM has shifted as the asset class has evolved.   Within the report you can find our “EM Sovereign Credit Markets” section, which we review in this webinar. In short: sovereign debt levels have risen but without the wave of defaults that were feared after the pandemic, and credit ratings have now stabilized. In our section we analyze the cyclicality of EM sovereign credit spreads versus the more idiosyncratic nature of sovereign defaults; highlight the evolution of the EM sovereign debt architecture; update our analysis of external financing trends and debt dynamics; and we look into ownership of the asset class. 

Speakers: Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Research Nishant Poojary,  Emerging Markets Strategy Gorka Lalaguna, Emerging Markets Strategy Fariha Ahmmed, Emerging Markets Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 19, November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824425-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke, Ladislav Jankovic  and James Nelligan take a final look at the tactical setup for FX heading into next week’s election, including potential targets across election outcomes for key dollar pairs. They also evaluate what’s priced into spot and options markets. Our strategists conclude with implications for GBP following this week’s highly-anticipated budget announcement.

Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832528-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, revisit the forces behind the Mexican peso’s regime shift from a high-beta risk proxy to a lower-beta currency on a trend-appreciation path as Mexico benefits from the geopolitical dividends of nearshoring. They also touch upon upcoming risks around elections, as well as valuations.

Speakers Luis Oganes, Global Head of Macro Research Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategy Tania Escobedo Jacob, Emerging Markets Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 28 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4703117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

FX markets focus will become US-centric with payrolls, CPI and FOMC on the calendar. But June also brings other G10 central bank meetings. We discuss outlook for currencies going into this key month and event risk.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715460-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss the FX market implications from the upcoming FOMC and other G10 central bank meetings.

Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792216-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class after the US elections.

This podcast was recorded on 08  November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Following a 50bp interest rate cut by the Fed this week gold has risen to another new all time high above $2,600/oz. Strong physical demand from China and central banks supported gold prices over the past two years but investor flow, and retail-focused ETF builds in particular, continue to hold the key to a further sustained rally over the upcoming Fed cutting cycle.  Silver also looks compelling with investor length less subscribed than gold and industrial metals now regaining upwards momentum on stronger demand signals from China and macro tailwinds from the start of the Fed easing cycle.

Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 20, Sept. 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week’s podcast, Global FX Strategists Arindam Sandilya & Patrick Locke discuss the current state of the FX carry trade, as well as the outlooks for JPY, USD, CNY & FX vol.

This podcast was recorded on August 9, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4765082-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The initial post-election sell-off in gold ran counter to both our and consensus expectations. We think it’s much more about near-term position squaring than a break in our thesis that a Republican sweep of government will likely continue to fuel further upside for gold in 2025 as the debasement trade rumbles on.  Base metals prices have swung dramatically following the election. While there will likely eventually be a good risk/reward set up to add length in base metals again in the coming quarters we don’t think we are there yet and are more cautious on base metals prices over the coming weeks. Following the Trump election victory, Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research, outlines our outlook for metals from here.

Speaker:

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 8, November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4838877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss a new class of options-based trades that are designed to trade the volatility of principal components of the US Rates markets.

Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4742403-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We assess the impact of this week’s FX carry trade deleveraging, as well as FX views from here after the ECB, BoC and US payrolls, ahead of key event risk next week.

Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy  James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4719772-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2025, focusing also on the various channels in which the new US administration can impact EM economies and fixed income markets.

Speakers

Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Jahangir Aziz - Head of Emerging Market Economics Research Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist

JPMorgan Interest Rate Strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss recent events in the markets and their views going forward. This discussion covers a lot of ground, from the weak Payrolls report and subsequent Fed-speak, to recent headlines about issuance in the 20Y sector, to carry trade unwinds, swap spreads, volatility and the Fed’s balance sheet normalization.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy

Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 9 August 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4758481-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4767527-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The BCOM Precious Metals Index has continued its year-to-date rally in October, gaining nearly 4% so far this month despite higher US yields and a stronger US dollar.  The continued outperformance in gold and silver comes as markets price in greater odds of a Trump presidency and possible Republican sweep, fueling precious metals length as a hedge against the potential for amplified US fiscal concerns, inflationary concerns and geopolitical/trade tensions.  In this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research, discusses the key takeaways from the 2024 LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference and shares an update on the precious markets as we approach the upcoming US election.

Speaker:

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 25, Oct. 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4819507-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.