ARC ENERGY IDEAS (ARC ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE)

This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.

They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.

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This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?  
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week we welcome to the podcast Jared Dziuba, Oil & Gas Market Specialist, BMO Nesbitt Burns and Rachel Walsh, Carbon Innovation Analyst, BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Jared and Rachel have authored several reports on the topic of CCS, including, “The Outer Limits: Exploring the Cost (Opportunity) of Canada’s Net Zero Pathways” and following the recent news of the federal tax credit for CCUS in Canada, they published “Durable Carbon Offset Revenue Still Needed to Drive CCUS.” 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked them: Considering the new federal tax credit, what carbon price is needed to support new investments? How likely is it that the carbon credit market in Alberta will trade at this level?  Could the actual costs for building large scale CCS projects be greater than expected? How is Alberta allocating the subsurface pore space for storing carbon? 

If you would like to have access to BMO Nesbitt Burns research on CCS, please contact Jared directly at Jared.Dziuba@bmo.com

Please review BMO Capital Markets disclosure at:  https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/ 

Please review ARC Energy Institute disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week John Gorman, President and Chief Executive Officer at the Canadian Nuclear Association (CNA) joins the podcast.  John recently wrote an op-ed titled “Examining the role of nuclear in Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan.”  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John: What is the scale and size of the new Small Modular Reactors (SMR)?  Is SMR technology safe?  What about the waste issue? When will the first SMRs be in operation? Is the electricity affordable? And, do you think Canada is poised for leadership in this new generation of reactors? 

To learn more about the Canadian Nuclear Association visit: https://cna.ca/

Please review ARC Energy Institute disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week we are delighted to have Stephen Poloz the former Governor of the Bank of Canada.  Stephen was the Bank’s Governor from June 2013 to June 2020 and was at the helm during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stephen just released a new book titled “The Next Age of Uncertainty” that outlines five tectonic forces that, when they interact together, will create more volatility and risk than the past era. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Stephen: How would you compare the inflation we face today to the period in the 1970s? How do higher interest rates work to reduce inflation? Are there other tools the central bank can use to control inflation? During the early 1980s high interest rates used to fight inflation caused a double dip recession, is that a concern now? What actions were taken by the central bank during the early days of the pandemic?  How concerned are you about Canadian housing prices? Why do you view the future to be more uncertain and volatile? 

“The Next Age of Uncertainty” is available for purchase from numerous retailers including digital and audio. Here is a link to purchase a hardcover on Amazon.ca: https://www.amazon.ca/Next-Age-Uncertainty-Riskier-Future/dp/0735243905

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This week Heather Ferguson, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Strategy and Corporate Affairs with Ontario Power Generation (OPG) joins the podcast. OPG burned its last piece of coal in 2014 and has committed to being a net-zero company by 2040.  They have also expanded their generation assets beyond Ontario’s borders into the United States. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Heather: How will OPG achieve net-zero by 2040?  Is the regulatory process in Canada a barrier to achieving net-zero? What is the state of OPG’s Small Modular Reactor (SMR) projects? How is OPG’s electric car charging business progressing?  Are interconnects across Canada a way to achieve net-zero electricity faster and at a lower cost? Who should pay for zero emissions electricity and infrastructure – the rate payer or the taxpayer?  How are Indigenous voices and concerns represented as OPG proceeds with new projects?

See OPG’s Climate Change Plan at  https://www.opg.com/climate-change/

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

While the Battle of Alberta is front page news, this week Jackie and Peter take a break from hockey and talk about some other game-changing local headlines.  

First, they talk about the political change with Premier Jason Kenney announcing that he is stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP).  

Next, an Alberta court found the Impact Assessment Act (formerly Bill C-69) to be unconstitutional.  The Act defines the review process for large energy infrastructure projects in Canada.

After that, an update on the Canadian oil and gas industry’s fiscal pulse.  With higher oil and gas prices, the outlook for revenue and cashflow for 2022 has increased and can be viewed on the last page of our weekly ARC Energy Charts publication.  Today’s higher prices have significant implications for royalties, specifically, speeding up the timeline for oil sand projects to achieve the higher post-payout royalty rates.  

Finally, Peter and Jackie weigh in on the debate about who should pay for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – federal and provincial governments, or industry.

Here's the Calgary Herald article Jackie mentions re carbon capture 

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Natural gas price has been climbing to near record highs in North America.  This week, Jackie and Peter talk about the reasons for high natural gas prices now.

Longer term, North American gas markets are undergoing a structural change. To reduce their reliance on Russia, EU countries are turning towards new gas suppliers including the United States. Consequently, a US build-out of LNG export capacity is starting.  The pull from more Canadian and US gas going overseas will change the gas markets. 

Peter and Jackie finish the podcast talking about the history of natural gas which has undergone many transitions. It started with coal gas and transitioned to nature or natural gas. The United Kingdom was once importing gas from the United States, then Europe grew domestic supply and imported more Russian production. Now the EU is transitioning away from Russia.  In the future, gaseous fuels are likely to transition towards clean hydrogen and Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

The broad-based Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF is off 60% from its peak in early 2021.  Riskier stocks on the clean energy spectrum have fallen even more.  For a more in-depth perspective, please see Peter’s commentary titled “What is Next for Clean Tech Companies” that explores how the beat-up equity markets will impact clean energy companies going forward and their strategies. 

To start off this week’s podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the recent changes in the oil market, including the European Union’s decision to ban Russian oil and the news that OPEC+ will pump more oil this summer than initially expected. 

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast includes: 

• From the Energyphile collection, the Standard Oil Bulletin about the end of coal.
• Peter’s written and audio story from the Energyphile collection  “Hubris Defined” - A cautionary tale about arrogance based on the Standard Oil Bulletin of October 1914 about the ease at which coal would be replaced by oil. 
• The WSJ article “ Silicon Valley Investors give start-ups survival advice for downturn.”  

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In the depths of the COVID pandemic, oilfield activity ground to a halt and service companies were forced to shrink.  While oilfield activity levels have rebounded significantly, they are still below the pre-pandemic peaks. 

This week, Steve Glanville, President and Chief Operating Officer of STEP Energy Services and Shawn Martens, Co-Founder, VP of Operations at IronSight join the podcast.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie ask:  How much inflation are you seeing now?  Is there a labour shortage for oil and gas workers? If North American E&P companies decided to ramp-up their oil and gas production, would oilfield services be a constraint to growth?  Are oilfield service companies likely to invest in new equipment?  Are E&P companies early adopters or laggards when it comes to digital technology? 

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast includes:

• From the Energyphile collection, the vignette of the “Investor Visit”  
• Peter’s written and audio story from the Energyphile collection “The Investor Visit” when a CEO hosts an investor to visit his oil well in 1915 and provides some timeless advice
• STEP Energy Services website: https://www.stepenergyservices.com/
• IronSight app website: https://ironsight.app/

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Kiewit is one of North America’s largest construction and engineering organizations.  As such, the company has a unique perspective on the pipeline of new infrastructure projects in the United States and Canada.

To get a window into what is on the horizon for large energy infrastructure projects, Kiewit’s Matthew Thomas, Vice President, Carbon Capture and Travis Shearer, Vice President, Markets & Strategy, Oil, Gas and Chemicals join this week’s podcast.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask them:  To what extent are inflation and higher interest rates impacting the pipeline of new infrastructure projects?  What is the outlook for carbon capture projects in North America?  Do you expect blue and green hydrogen projects to be constructed? How has the interest in North American LNG changed since Russia invaded Ukraine?  What other types of clean energy projects are under development? 

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast includes:

• From the Energyphile collection, the vignette of “The Methane Pioneer” about an LNG tanker that departed the United States for Europe in 1959   

Learn more about Kiewit at: www.kiewit.com/

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

This week on the podcast we talk about Jackie’s recent op-ed “Blackouts Could Drive a Return to Home Solar” with our guests Gursh Bal and Kai Fahrion, who are the Co-CEO’s of Zeno, a residential home solar solutions provider. 

Jackie’s op-ed argues that, while reducing power bills has been the historical reason for installing rooftop solar, the biggest push in the future will come from the increasing risk of power outages due to extreme weather. Electric vehicles and new financing options are other factors that are reducing the barriers to adoption. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Gursh and Kai:  What is the typical size, cost and payback on a home solar installation?  How can the Ford F-150 Lightning electric truck’s bidirectional feature increase home energy security?   Could a Canadian home go off-grid with these solutions? What is the outlook for residential solar? What are the common concerns when people consider home solar?

Other content referenced in this week’s podcast:

• Zeno’s documentary on Peter’s home solar installation
• Check out Zeno’s website: www.livezeno.com 

 Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

Earlier this year Cheniere Energy and ARC Resources announced a new supply agreement to export Canadian gas from an LNG facility located on the US Gulf Coast. 

This week on the podcast, Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Cheniere and Ryan Berrett, Senior Vice President, Marketing at ARC Resources tell us more about their agreement. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter ask them:  How well positioned is North America versus other potential LNG suppliers to Europe?  By 2030, how much will US LNG exports grow compared with today?  Considering the long transportation distance, does it make economic sense to export Canadian gas from the US Gulf Coast?   With the increasing pull from international markets, do you expect North American gas production will grow? Are ESG attributes important to buyers of LNG?

See the press release about the Cheniere Energy and ARC Resources supply agreement: https://lngir.cheniere.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/247/cheniere-corpus-christi-stage-iii-and-arc-resources-sign

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer. 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter try a new format discussing and debating a number of recent news headlines, including:

• Citi Says Oil May Collapse to $65 by the Year-End on Recession (July 5, 2022) 
• Video of Stuart Kirk, HSBC head of responsible investing at the Financial Times Moral Money Event Video (May 2022)
• Mining Industry Warns Energy Transition Isn’t Sustainable (July 3, 2022)
• EV prices soar, as one exec warns of market “collapse” if they don’t get cheaper (July 5, 2022)
• Clean Energy Canada’s report that compares the total ownership costs of electric cars to the gas equivalents, titled The True Cost (March 30, 2022)
• Deutsche Bank raided by authorities over ESG ‘greenwashing’ claims: We’ve found evidence that could support allocations of prospectus fraud (May 31, 2022)
• SEC is Investigating Goldman Sachs over ESG Funds (June 10, 2022) 

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

The final rule for Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) was published in the Canada Gazette on July 6, 2022.   By 2030, the rule aims to reduce the emissions for Canadian suppliers of gasoline and diesel by over 15 percent (compared with 2016).

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter talk about the new rule.  While a draft version was published in December 2020, the final rule had some unexpected revisions. 

They also talk about Alberta carbon policy.  The provincial government issued a document for feedback on proposed changes to the large emitter program, called Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER).

Content referenced in this week’s podcast: 

-        The Final Canadian Clean Fuel Standard 

-        A Review of Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Regulation

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer. 

This week on the podcast we discuss the Canadian Federal Government’s July 2022 discussion document “Options to Cut Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Achieve 2030 Goals and Net-Zero by 2050.”    Joining the discussion is our guest Sander Duncanson, Partner, Regulatory, Environmental, Indigenous and Land at Osler, a Canadian business law firm.

There are two policy options being proposed.  Option one is a new cap-and-trade system for the oil and gas sector in addition to the existing provincial carbon pricing systems already in place.  Option two proposes to modify the existing carbon pricing systems in each province, setting more stringent rules for oil and gas.

Jackie, Peter and Sander express a number of concerns about the proposal; the inefficiency of pricing carbon higher for one sector of the economy, the potential for unintended consequences from overlapping policies, including the potential to harm to smaller oil and gas producers, and the policy could potentially face legal challenges from the provinces creating uncertainty that could ultimately slow down investment and reduction in GHG emissions. 

The discussion document is asking for feedback to be submitted by September 30, 2022 and sent to PlanPetrolieretGazier-OilandGasPlan@ec.gc.ca. We encourage people to participate and express their views on the proposed cap on emissions.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• “Eradicating the Smoke Nuisance” from Energyphile.org
• Options to Cut Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Achieve 2030 Goals and Net-Zero by 2050.”    

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

In this episode we showcase one of Peter’s Energyphile stories “Long Way Around.”

In the preamble to the story, Peter and Jackie talk about Canadian energy security for oil.  A Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for Canada’s eastern provinces would have helped during the 1970s oil price shocks, but is it still relevant today? Should the Energy East oil pipeline be reconsidered as a way to increase Canadian energy security?

The Energyphile stories are also available on numerous podcast apps, including Apple iTunes Podcasts and Spotify.

Content referenced in this week’s podcast:

• See “Long Way Around” and other Energyphile stories  
• History of Canadian Crude Oil Imports (2010 to 2021) by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER)

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss some recent news. First, they talk about the surprise end to summer with the United States passing into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).  The IRA includes $369 billion of spending on clean energy and supports the build-out of a clean energy supply chain in the United States and the EV incentives also help  free-trade partners and North American automakers. 

Next, Peter and Jackie talk about how Western Canadian natural gas prices crashed in the last few weeks of summer.  While the rest of the world is paying record high natural gas prices, the benchmark in Alberta – called AECO – was pricing near zero dollars.  Peter and Jackie talk about the price collapse and the causes.

Finally, they debate some recent news headlines.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Energyphile Vignette of the Week “Make Hay While the Sun Shines”
• August 25, 2002 CBC reports “Chemical engineer questions Belledune hydrogen plan”
• July 29, 2022 Yard “Just Plane Wrong: Celebs with the Worst Private Jet Co2 Emissions” 

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

One uncertainty about how the energy transition will play out is how prevalent battery technology will be in the future. 

Today’s lithium-ion batteries work well for short duration utility storage and electric cars, but they are not commercial for some other applications – such as long duration energy storage or heavy hauling.  Also, material supply constraints are increasing the cost of batteries and becoming a limit to growth.  

To understand the current and future state of battery technology, we welcome Dr. Rajshekar DasGupta, Chief Executive Officer of Electrovaya to our podcast.  

Electrovaya is a Canadian developer and manufacture of lithium-ion batteries that is based in Mississauga, Ontario. They are also developing proprietary solid state battery technology.

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

The backlash against the ESG movement is on the rise. ‘Anti-woke’ investment funds are launching and 19 US States wrote a letter to BlackRock, saying it is putting leftist politics above investor interests and returns.  Jackie and Peter debate if the ESG backlash could change corporate behaviour around climate and the environment.  Especially when you consider that, compared with the pro-ESG movement, the anti groups currently represent much less capital. 

Next, we invite our guest Radha Curpen, Vice Chair, Vancouver Managing Partner and National Leader, ESG and Strategy and Solutions, Bennett Jones to join us to provide an update on the legal aspects of ESG for corporations.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• To receive Peter’s weekly email commentary, sign-up at Energyphile.org
• The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies paper “Global trade of hydrogen: what is the best way to transfer hydrogen over long distances?”
• Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich organized and is leading a coalition of 19 states that sent a letter to BlackRock Inc., calling out its practices of putting leftist politics above investors’ interests and returns (August 4, 2022)
• Anti-Woke’ investment fund launches to back companies that only focus on profits, Proactive (May 11, 2022)
• Anti-ESG Activist Investor Urges Chevron to Increase Oil Production, WSJ (September 6, 2022)

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

While North American natural gas prices are relatively low compared to Europe and Asia – they are still over four times greater than the typical level over the past several years. Assuming a cold winter, North American prices could spike up even higher.

This week we invite Tim Egan, President and CEO, Canadian Gas Association (CGA) to join the podcast to talk about natural gas in Canada.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask: Is affordability a concern this winter for Canadian residential and industrial users of natural gas?   Are exports of LNG from Canada’s east coast economic? Why has central Canada’s consumption of American natural gas grown?  Will Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) or hydrogen consumption grow in Canada? What are some examples of Canadian innovation when it comes to natural gas?

Content referenced in this podcast:

·         Website with more information on natural gas and its consumption: “Fueling Canada – we can do it” 

Currently we have a linear economy – products are created, used and then thrown away.  In a circular economy there is no waste – after they are used, products are recycled and/or reused. 

This week our guest is Mike Werner, Lead for Circular Economy at Google.  Mike tells us about Google’s sustainability goals. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Mike: Google sells hardware – Nest thermostats, cell phones and so on – what happens to these products when they are no longer useable?  How does Google use digital products to help consumers make more sustainable choices? Why did Google commission papers on plastic waste? Are you optimistic that plastic waste can be reduced?  

Content referenced in this podcast:

·         Learn more about Google’s Sustainability Goals

·         “Closing the Plastics Circularity Gap”  with contributions from AFARA consulting (recently acquired by EY Canada) and Google

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):A Well-Rounded Conversation with Google About the Circular Economy (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Putin's war is being fought on many fronts. A real war in Ukraine, but also an economic and energy war in the rest of Europe. 

This week our guests are David Sheppard, FT Energy Editor based in London and Derek Brower, US Energy Editor for the Financial Times and FT Energy Source Editor based in New York.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked our guests: Assuming that Russia was at fault for the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, what could be the motivation? How difficult are the high energy prices for residential and industrial energy consumers in Europe now? So far, the energy war has been fought in the gas markets, but are the oil markets next? European governments are offering energy price caps and subsidies to shield consumers from high prices, is this the right approach? In June, Putin predicted that Europe will have a surge of populism that will oust the current governments. Is Italy a one off, or do you foresee government change towards more right-wing leaders in other EU countries? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Energy War in Europe (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week, Peter Altmaier, Germany’s former Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy (2018-2021) visited Calgary to speak at the PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series hosted by the Centre for Corporate Sustainability at the Haskayne School of Business with the University of Calgary. 

After the Petronas Energy Speaker Series, Peter sat down with Jackie to talk about Europe’s energy crisis.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie asked Peter Altmaier: Why did Germany become so reliant on Russian gas? Did he ever fear a scenario that Russia would use natural gas as a weapon?  How significant is the loss of the Nord Stream pipelines? Has Russia shred its reputation as a reliable supplier of energy forever?  What do you expect the energy situation in Germany will be this winter? How important will clean hydrogen and hydrogen imports be for Germany in the future? What was your reaction to Chancellor Scholz’s recent visit to Canada, on the lack of East Coast LNG and the possibly of green hydrogen?   

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): An Interview with Peter Altmaier, Germany’s former Energy Minister (arcenergyinstitute.com)

The stock markets have witnessed steep declines this year, inflation is at 40-year highs, central banks are increasing interest rates and recession fears are growing. 

To help explain what is next for the economy, Craig Alexander, President of Alexander Economic Views and Chief Economist & Executive Advisor at Deloitte Canada joins the podcast. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Craig:  How would you describe the rate of inflation we are seeing today? Labour shortages seem to be everywhere, where did the people go?   Do you expect a recession in the United States and in Canada? What is your outlook for Canadian housing prices? Why do equity markets suffer when interest rates increase? What policy is better for clean energy policy from an economics perspective, the American "carrots" or the Canadian "sticks"?  Deglobalization is occurring, what are the implications for the economy? Longer-term, are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic about the Canadian economy?  

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Energyphile Vignette “Bullish About the New Energy Market”  

Please review the ARC Energy Institute disclaimer.

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): About the Economy: Inflation, Equity Markets and Recession Fears (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast Peter and Jackie catch up on Peter’s trip to Europe.  First, they talk about the political changes, both in Europe and closer to home with new Premiers in both British Columbia and Alberta. 

Next, they switch to the topic of energy conservation in Europe.  Did Peter see any signs that people are saving energy?  Is energy affordability and conservation a focus of the conversation? 

Finally, they talk about the oil markets.  Prices have softened since reaching over $120/B in June and, as a result, OPEC+ announced they would cut their production in early October.  President Joe Biden warned there would be consequences due to the production cut. Jackie and Peter discuss the potential actions that the United States could take.  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

 To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Catching up: Politics, European Energy Conservation and Oil Markets (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Did you know that concrete is responsible for about 8% of global carbon dioxide emissions, more than double those from aviation.   

On this week’s podcast, Chris Stern the Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder at CarbiCrete introduces a made-in-Canada solution for addressing part of concrete’s greenhouse gas problem.  His company has developed a carbon-negative technology for producing precast concrete.  The precast market makes up about 30 percent of the total market for concrete. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Chris Stern: How much concrete does the world use each year? How are carbon dioxide emissions created in the production of traditional concrete and how can they be reduced? How is CarbiCrete’s product made?  How is CarbiCrete’s product carbon-negative? Do you receive carbon credits for removing emissions?   How long has it taken to develop your concrete process so far? Are customers concerned about the durability when new concrete mixes and processes are introduced? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• CarbiCrete’s website  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): A Concrete Solution to Sequestering Carbon: An Interview with CarbiCrete (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie talk about the news from the Federal Government’s Fall Economic Statement 2022.  The Government announced new incentives that will come into force in 2023, including credits for green electricity, clean hydrogen, energy storage and heat pumps, and a new fund to support private investment in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). They also introduced plans to develop incentives for manufacturing competitiveness. These incentives increase the opportunity for clean energy investing in Canada.  

They also weighed in on President Biden’s recent threats of a windfall tax on oil and gas producers in the United States if they do not start using their profits for growing oil and gas production. 

Next, they talk about the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook.  The agency has revised down its outlooks for natural gas demand due to the events of the past year.   

Finally, COP 27 has kicked off in Egypt this week. Do these meetings actually make a difference in reducing emissions? What will be the topics of discussion this year? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

 To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): New Canadian Clean Energy Incentives and COP 27 (arcenergyinstitute.com)

On this week’s podcast our guest is Mike Law, President and Chief Executive Officer at the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO). 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Mike: Are consumers exposed to the volatile power price in Alberta’s deregulated electric market?  Why are electricity prices in Alberta higher now? Are the costs for transmission too high? Is net-zero electricity by 2035 achievable?  What is the current status of the federal government’s Clean Electricity Standard?  In a deregulated market, how can Alberta ensure that enough clean electricity generation capacity is constructed by 2035?  Do you think a pan-Canadian grid is part of the solution for achieving net-zero electricity?  

Other information referenced in this podcast: 

• AESO’s Net Zero Emissions Pathways Report (June 2022) 
• AESO’s Real Time Dashboard of Alberta’s Power System 
• AESO Twitter @theAESO 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Spotlight on Alberta Power: An Interview with Mike Law, CEO at AESO (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast our guest is Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).  OIES is a world leading independent energy research institute specializing in advanced research into the economics and geopolitics of energy.  Dr. Bassam Fattouh is an expert on oil markets, including OPEC, the energy transition, and the economic environment of the Middle East.  

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Dr. Fattouh: What are the challenges of energy transition for oil producers in the Middle East? Are they diversifying into new energy types and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)? Were you surprised by the latest OPEC+ decision to cut production by 2 MMB/d when the US and Europe are acting to reduce oil prices? How does the Middle East view US shale oil now?  Do you see a future for Russia in OPEC? 

The OIES publishes publicly available papers to help understand oil, natural gas, and energy transition including – solar, hydrogen, CCS, nuclear and much more. Please see their website: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/ 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

 To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Energy Transition in the Middle East (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week our podcast was recorded at the Bennet Jones Lake Louise World Cup Business Forum. Our podcast guest  is the Honourable A. Anne McLellan, who was a speaker at the event and is currently Senior Advisor, Public Policy Group at Bennet Jones. 

Ms. McLellan joined Bennet Jones after a distinguished career in federal politics.  Ms. McLellan served four terms as the Liberal Member of Parliament for Edmonton Centre, holding numerous Minister positions during that time and was Deputy Prime Minister from 2003 to 2006. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Ms. McLellan: How does the United States Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) impact Canadian clean energy? Do you think Canada should develop plans to increase LNG exports to help Europe with their energy shortage? How do you view the growing divide between Western provinces and Ottawa?  Any thoughts on Alberta’s Sovereignty Act? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Canadian Energy, Politics and Western Alienation (arcenergyinstitute.com)

• EMC Canadian Provincial and Territorial Zero-Emission Vehicle Scorecard 
• Link to Daniel Breton’s past books  

This week Alexis von Hoensbroech, Chief Executive Officer at WestJet joins as our guest. 

The last few years have been very difficult for airlines. COVID restrictions caused the industry to shrink overnight, then in the summer of 2022 people started traveling again but the airports and airlines were collectively challenged by the surge in demand.  On top of all that pressure and change, airlines are being asked to reduce their GHG emissions.  

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Alexis: How did WestJet manage during the pandemic and the pent-up demand in 2022? How is WestJet dealing with greater competition in the Canadian market? What are the advantages of the new planes that WestJet is purchasing?  What commitments have you made to reduce GHG emissions? What technologies will be needed to achieve these reductions? Carbon offsets are an option today, how many customers voluntarily purchase offsets for their flights? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): The Ups and Downs of Aviation: An Interview with WestJet’s CEO (arcenergyinstitute.com)

On this week’s podcast we look back on the key themes that shaped the past year.  First, we review our predictions from early January. How well did we predict the issues that would dominate the discussion in 2022?  We also review some of the big stories of the year that we did not foresee twelve months ago.  

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• Jackie’s commentary: Learnings from building Canada’s Railway for Today’s Megaprojects  
• The Wall Street Journal article on how Germany accelerated the construction of an LNG import terminal: The Five-Year Engineering Feat Germany Pulled Off in Months 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Looking Back on 2022: What Were the Big Surprises? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Peter and Jackie start the year off by introducing nine topics that are likely to dominate energy and climate discussions in 2023. 

1. China – Zero-COVID policy relaxation consequences 
2. Ukraine war outlook 
3. Inflation outlook 
4. Commodity price outlook – Which way? Up, down or both? 
5. Year of the EV pickup truck 
6. Canada’s response to the US IRA and other climate policy 
7. Green-on-green competition begins 
8. First FID on major CCS projects in Alberta 
9. LNG in Canada outlook 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Nine Themes to Watch in 2023 (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week, Yvan Cliche, Fellow at CERIUM (Center for International Studies and Research) at Université de Montreal talks about the opportunities and issues for Canadian energy, including his perspective from Quebec. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Yvan: Will renewables lessen the dependence on oil and gas any time soon? Is Canada doing enough to help our allies during the Russia-Ukraine war?  Does a cap on oil and gas emissions make any sense during a period of war and energy shortages?  What do Quebecers think about oil pipelines in their province?  What about LNG exports from Quebec? Is Quebec considered energy secure now? How could that change in the future? What are some of the interesting possibilities for Quebec energy in the future? 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• Yvan Cliché’s recent book titled: “Jusqu'à plus soif: Pétrole-gaz-solaire-éolien : enjeux et conflits énergétiques” - English translation: “Until no longer thirsty: Oil-gas-solar-wind power: energy issues and conflicts”. 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/


To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  A Conversation on Energy and Quebec (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Carbon credits are coming under increasing scrutiny. The Guardian ran an article last week that alleged that 90% of rainforest carbon credits issued by Verra, manager of the world’s leading voluntary carbon markets program, the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) Program, did not represent genuine offsets.  And, comedian John Oliver made the entertaining case that carbon offsets do not deliver the emissions benefit that they claim.  

This week, our guest Dirk Forrister, President and CEO of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) helps us understand the current state of the carbon markets. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Dirk: What is your response to the critics of carbon markets – including John Oliver and The Guardian? To improve credibility, some groups are advocating that avoidance credits should be banished, and only removal credits should be supported – do you agree with that perspective? When do you expect that countries can trade credits across borders? Does the Article 6 agreement ,made during COP 26, facilitate international trade? Do you think Canada could use Article 6 to offset the emissions for operating LNG export terminals?  Are you concerned by the price volatility in carbon credit markets? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Our weekly publication, the ARC Energy Charts has our 2023 outlook for the Canadian oil and gas industry revenue, cash flow, and capital spending – see the last page 
• The Guardian, January 18, 2023 “Revealed: More than 90% of rainforest carbon offset credits by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows” 
• John Oliver show on carbon offsets  
• International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) website: https://www.ieta.org/ 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Are Carbon Offsets Credible? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast our guest is Blake Shaffer, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.   

We cover a range of topics about Alberta and Canada’s electricity markets.  Including revisiting the tight power market that Alberta experienced during the  December 2022 cold spell, the issues and opportunities that come from the ramp-up of Electric Vehicles (EV), and finally the prospects for achieving net-zero electricity by 2035 in Canada.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Blake: Does Alberta’s Electricity Systems Operator (AESO) need a better system for asking residential consumers to reduce their demand in times that the power system is in short supply?  How are electrical system distributors preparing for the coming influx of EVs?  Will people adjust their charging behavior to help the electrical system accommodate more EVs? Do you think Canada can achieve net-zero electricity by 2035? Will large transmission lines between provinces be required to achieve net-zero?  How could net-zero impact consumer’s utility bills in 2035?  

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Follow Blake on Twitter @bcshaffer https://twitter.com/bcshaffer 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Can the Grid Handle EVs? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

In September 2022, Enbridge and 23 First Nations and Metis communities announced that the Indigenous groups would buy an 11.57% non-operating interest in Enbridge operated pipelines in the Athabasca region of northern Alberta for $1.12 Billion – it has been called the first of its kind and an historic announcement. 

This week, Justin Bourque, President of Athabasca Indigenous Investments and Colin Gruending, Enbridge’s Executive Vice President and President of Liquids Pipelines join the podcast to tell us more about the agreement.   

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Justin and Colin:  How will the agreement help the 23 communities who are now equity partners in the pipeline system?  How did Athabasca Indigenous Investments finance their share of the pipeline for over $1 billion? What was the process like – who made the first phone call and how long did it take to come to an agreement? Do you foresee more equity partnerships occurring in the future? What is your advice for how companies should participate in Indigenous reconciliation? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Book Recommendation: 21 Things You May Not Know About the Indian Act by Bob Joseph  
• Enbridge’s Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan including the artwork of Jason Carter  
• Athabasca Indigenous Investments  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Making History: Enbridge Partners with Indigenous Communities on Pipelines (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast our guest is John Graham, President and CEO of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Investments. The mandate of CPP Investments is to invest the assets of the CPP Fund with a view to achieving a maximum rate of return without undue risk of loss. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John Graham: What is the history of why Canada created the CPP and CPP Investments? What are your thoughts on 2023 with respect to geopolitics, threat of recession, inflation and volatility in general? Are you dampening your return expectations as a result of the weaker macro outlook? Is the CPP well funded to support Canadians who retire long into the future? Does the CPP have a net-zero 2050 goal?  Will you still invest in high carbon industries, for example steel, concrete or oil and gas? Do you have goals for investing in clean and green energy? What are the barriers for investing capital in clean energy? Could the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attract energy transition focused capital away from Canada? There is an active debate in Alberta now about leaving the CPP, beyond contribution levels, what other factors should Albertan’s consider in this major decision? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

 To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): An Interview with Canada Pension Plan Investment’s President and CEO, John Graham (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week Peter and Jackie catch up on the latest news and topics of interest including: 

• Russia to cut oil production by 500,000 B/d in March 
• BP scales back their target to reduce their oil production by 2030  
• The collapse in North American and International natural gas prices 
• Waiting for the Canadian Federal Government’s spring budget to learn about clean energy incentives policy 
• The concern with articles that overpromise when it comes to clean energy technologies, including commentary on the article “Scientists Successfully Split Seawater to Produce Green Hydrogen” (OilPrice.com) 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):
Catching Up: Russia, Oil, Natural Gas, Policy and Clean Tech Promises (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week our guest is Stewart Muir, founder and CEO of Resource Works,.  Resource Works is a public-interest advocacy and communications not-for-profit based in Vancouver, British Columbia. Their mission is to reignite the promise of Canada's economic future by leading respectful, inclusive and fact-based dialogue on natural resource development.  

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Stewart:  How have politics in B.C. changed with the new Premier, David Eby? How is LNG viewed in B.C. now? Is LNG considered as green energy and a way to reduce the use of coal in Asia? What do you think are the chances for the second phase of LNG Canada? What is the sentiment from Indigenous groups on resource development? Explain the Blueberry River First Nations agreement with the B.C. government and how it impacts industrial development in other areas of the province? Do you expect large scale CCS projects to be developed in Northeast B.C.? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• From Peter Tertzakian’s Energyphile “Stairway to Hell” the story of the ghost coal mining town of Bankhead 
• Government of Canada’s Sustainable Jobs Plan 
• Stewart’s new company Tersa Earth Innovations  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

This week our guest is Jana Mosley, President of ENMAX Power. Headquartered in Calgary with operations across Alberta and Maine, ENMAX Corporation is a leading provider of electricity services, products and solutions. Jana is responsible for ENMAX’s regulated transmission and distribution business in Calgary. She also directs ENMAX’s power infrastructure, engineering and maintenance services. 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jana: Why did ENMAX purchase the business in Maine? What is ENMAX doing to help customers with affordability and adoption of clean energy? Is net-zero electricity possible by 2035 for ENMAX? What are you doing to prepare for a growing number of electric vehicles (EVs), trucks and medium duty fleet vehicles?  Besides EVs do you expect other electricity load growth? Will Calgarians be able to use their EVs in their homes for battery back-up and for sending electricity back to the grid? Do you expect that there will be a need to build new wires and equipment to people’s homes to support EVs and other load growth?  

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Jackie’s tweet about the peak energy load in Alberta for natural gas and electricity using ATCO data: https://twitter.com/JackieForrest/status/1605331565151924224 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources. 

The Government of Canada is working on some key energy policies, such as the clean energy incentives in the 2023 federal budget and a Sustainable Jobs Plan. 

Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson these questions: How has the Sustainable Jobs Plan been received so far? Which provinces are joining the regional roundtables and what do you hope to learn from them? What is the progress on Canada’s Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) policy? Do you expect any CCS projects to be sanctioned? What is the latest news on the Federal Government’s proposed cap on oil and gas emissions? How is Canada competing with the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)? What is the status of the proposed East Coast green hydrogen projects? 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• Government of Canada’s Sustainable Jobs Plan 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

Institutional investors are making pledges to reduce the emissions in their portfolio of investments. Most often the goals are tied to their scope 1 and 2 emissions (those controlled by a company they invest in). Occasionally, scope 3 emissions are also included in their goals (indirect emissions from a company’s value chain). 

While it is not common today, this podcast explains why scope 4 (also called avoided emissions) should be considered in green investment goals. Scope 4 emissions consider the big-picture impact by capturing the emission benefits when a company’s products are used.   

For example, take an energy-intensive insulation manufacturer that has relatively high scope 1 and 2 emissions.  These high emissions could cause investors with strict requirements around reducing scope 1 and 2 emissions to not invest. However, when insulation is used in buildings, the emissions reductions are large.  These long-term emissions reductions from using the insulation are scope 4 or avoided emissions.  This example demonstrates how, by considering the scope 4 emissions, investors can see the big picture of their investment's climate impact. 

This week our guests tell us more about the state of emissions reporting, including scope 4 emissions. We are pleased to welcome Erica Coulombe, Vice President at Millani, and Marcus Rocque, Senior Research Analyst at ARC Energy Research Institute to the podcast. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• Report that outlines the GHG emission reduction goals of various Canadian pension funds “Building Climate Resilience In Canada’s Pension Funds” by Smart Prosperity Institute 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

This week Frank Davis, Assistant VP, Green Hydrogen and Canada Country Head at Pattern Energy joins as our guest.  Pattern Energy is developing a green hydrogen project at the Port of Argentia in Newfoundland and Labrador. The project will use renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen and convert it into ammonia.  

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Frank: Tell us about the different parts of the project (electricity production to hydrogen and ammonia). Why did you select the province of Newfoundland and Labrador? How do you manage the variability of renewable power while running the ammonia plant 24/7? How much does the cost of green ammonia compare with hydrogen produced from fossil fuels? Would you look for 10 or 20 year take-or-pay contracts before proceeding with the project or is it a merchant model? How does Canadian policy for green hydrogen compare with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)? 

Content referenced:  

• Learn more about Pattern Energy’s project in Newfoundland: Argentia Renewables - Pattern Energy
• UN IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 (see page 7 of the Summary for Policy Makers to see the infographic that compares to what extent future generations will experience a hotter and different world), 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

Albert Cheung, Deputy CEO, of BloombergNEF joins us as our guest this week.  BloombergNEF provides its clients with research on global commodity markets and the technologies driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Albert:  How has the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) changed your outlook for energy transition investment in the U.S.? How much did investment in energy transition increase in 2022 and what was the total level of investment?  What are the hot areas for investment?  Is current investing in clean energy deployments enough to be on track for achieving net zero by 2050? BloombergNEF data shows that in Q4 2022, 19% of new vehicle sales globally were electric, is that ahead of your expectations? What are your thoughts on Canadian clean energy investing?  Do you anticipate that the current market volatility, including bank failures, high-interest rates, and SPACs could reduce investors’ appetite for investing in clean energy? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

On April 2, OPEC surprised the markets by announcing a large production cut. Oil prices jumped about $5 a barrel on the news.  On March 28, the 2023 Canadian Federal Budget was released which included additional details on investment tax credits (ITCs) and other incentives to support clean energy investment. This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie discuss both the OPEC cuts and the 2023 Budget. 

Content referenced: 

• Canada Budget 2023 
• Jackie Forrest’s Globe and Mail Article from November 2022 “We built the railway in five years. So why are so many megaprojects now stalled?” 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):OPEC Surprise Cut and Canada’s Budget 2023 (arcenergyinstitute.com)

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Listen to Peter and Jackie speak in front of a live audience with world-renowned photographer Edward Burtynsky at the office of GBE Energy in Calgary (recorded on April 14, 2023). Edward is regarded as one of the world's most accomplished contemporary photographers, known for his large-format images of natural environments altered by industry. His collections are included in over 80 major museums around the world.  

Peter and Jackie talk about how Edward’s industrial pictures show the impact of human consumption on the Earth, including (among other things) oil and gas, farming, mining, and waste. Edward shares his views on energy, environmental sustainability, energy transition, climate change, and the growing footprint of humankind. 

Content referenced in this episode:  

• Edward Burtynsky’s website https://www.edwardburtynsky.com/ 
• Edward talks about a popular picture he took of a nickel mine tailings pond in Ontario. https://www.edwardburtynsky.com/projects/photographs/tailings  
• The Paul Kuhn Gallery is hosting an Edward Burtynsky exhibition from April 15 to May 27, 2023 http://www.paulkuhngallery.com/ 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Photographer Edward Burtynsky: A Picture is Worth 1000 Spreadsheets (arcenergyinstitute.com)

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This week Michael (Mike) Rose, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Tourmaline joins us as our guest. 

Tourmaline made some exciting announcements last week. First, they announced a partnership on a compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling station network across Western Canada to enable heavy-haul trucks to get off diesel.  The company also announced that they plan to double the amount of gas they ship as LNG by 2026. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Mike: How have Western Canadian gas producers survived low gas prices? Why is Tourmaline investing in natural gas stations for heavy-haul trucking now, considering it still has GHG emissions? Has Tourmaline reduced its environmental footprint, including greenhouse gas emissions? How challenging is it to achieve the federal government’s goal of reducing oil and gas emissions in the range of 40 to 45 percent by 2030? Are you exporting LNG to international markets today? Can Canada compete with the U.S. to supply gas to LNG export terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast? How much WCSB gas could ultimately be shipped off Canada’s West Coast?  

Other information referenced in this podcast:  

• Alberta Government’s aspirational plan to reach net zero by 2050 “Alberta emissions reduction and energy development plan.” 
• Global News (April 18, 2023) “Tourmaline, Clean Energy Fuels to partner on natural gas fueling station network.” 
• Bloomberg (April 18, 2023) “Tourmaline Aims to Double Portion of Gas Shipped as LNG by 2026.” 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):
Canadian Natural Gas Has Gone Global: An Interview with Mike Rose from Tourmaline (arcenergyinstitute.com)

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This week John Dalton, President of Power Advisory joins the podcast to provide an overview of the electricity markets in Atlantic Canada, including the provinces of New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.  We also cover Quebec’s role in supplying electricity to the region.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John:  Is the Muskrat Falls hydro project operating yet? What is the final cost of Muskrat Falls?  Considering the high cost, do you expect other large hydro projects to be built in Eastern Canada?  What is the latest on the Atlantic Loop and Quebec to US transmission projects? Are the incentives and financing in Canada’s Budget 2023 enough to get transmission projects started? What was the historical agreement between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec for supplying electricity from Churchill Falls and how has that shaped the relationship between the two provinces on electricity?  Will Atlantic Canada have small modular reactors (SMRs) operating by 2035? Is renewable power generation (wind or solar) expected to grow in Atlantic Canada? Do you think Atlantic Canada will reach net zero electricity by 2035? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):
Atlantic Canada: Is Net Zero Electricity by 2035 Possible? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

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This episode marks the 200th ARC Energy Ideas podcast!  Peter and Jackie start the podcast commemorating this milestone. 

Next, Richard Masson, Chair of the World Petroleum Council Canada joins the podcast. Richard tells us about the 24th World Petroleum Congress that will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference is held once every three years and has been described as the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  

Finally, we wrap up the podcast with an update on Jackie’s solar panels, and how the economic return looks now with the first full year of actual operating data.  

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• The World Petroleum Congress website: https://www.24wpc.com/ 

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This week on the podcast Peter and Jackie discuss the results of a recent survey they conducted with a group of investors to understand their perspectives on investing in clean energy.  Do investors see an opportunity to generate strong returns in clean energy? Are they actively investing in clean energy? What do investors view as the most significant risks or uncertainties? 

Next, Peter and Jackie discuss why policy risk was one of the top concern areas for investors.  Why does policy risk rate high on the list of concerns?  What are the factors of policy risk that should be evaluated? 

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This week on the podcast our special guest is John Dillon, former Senior Vice President, Policy and Corporate Counsel at Business Council of Canada. 

First, John joins Jackie and Peter in a discussion about the Alberta Election that is being held on May 29, 2023.  What can we learn from the past record of the two leading parties, the United Conservative Party (UCP) and the New Democratic Party (NDP)? What do we know about their plans for the future of Alberta’s energy industry? 

Next, we ask John to reflect on his 32 years at the forefront of climate change policy in Canada.  How have corporate attitudes towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changed over that time? What policy changes are needed for Canada to make big reductions in GHG emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050? 

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The United Conservative Party (UCP) and its leader, Danielle Smith won a majority in the Alberta election on May 29, 2023.  Jackie and Peter start the podcast by reviewing the election results and the outlook for energy policy. 

Next, the conversation moves to Texas.  The Lone Star State has witnessed big growth in wind and solar energy, but now Republican lawmakers in Texas are trying to impede renewables growth.  Peter and Jackie talk about the shift in sentiment, and if it could spread beyond Texas. 

Finally, Jackie and Peter review some recent listener feedback, including Tesla, small modular reactors (SMR), and residential solar economics. 

Content referenced in this episode: 

• ARC is hiring a Senior Energy Research Analyst, check out the posting 
• Peter’s art exhibit is running June 10 to 30, 2023 at Elevation Gallery. The opening reception is on June 10. Learn more here 
• Chris Varcoe from the Calgary Herald: “Q&A: As Alberta Energy Sector Transforms, Danielle Smith Weighs in on Industry’s Future” (May 25, 2023) 
• CTV Article with Danielle Smith Comments on Wind and Solar: “We Are a Natural Gas Province: Smith Says Alberta Needs Power Plants, Not Wind and Solar” (March 22, 2023) 
• Wall Street Journal: “Texas, a Clean-Energy Pioneer, Turns Against Renewables” (May 26, 2023) 

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Energy markets are undergoing major changes.  Demand for electricity is increasing and at the same time supply from intermittent renewables is gaining market share. Artificial intelligence (AI) is another source of disruption for electricity markets.  

To help us understand the changing market dynamics from an electricity trader perspective, our guest Cory Paddock, President and Co-Founder of GBE Energy joins the podcast. 

Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter ask Cory: How is electricity traded? As renewables gain a larger percentage of total supply, how will electricity markets be impacted? Are market reforms, such as capacity payments, needed to ensure power reliability as the share of renewables grows? What is a “duck curve”? How could AI change electricity markets? Is AI already being used? Could AI replace human electricity traders?  

Content referenced in this episode: 

• Small Vermont utility quietly builds a fleet of 4,000 Tesla Powerwalls (Electrek, Aug 22, 2022)  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

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This week our guest is Eric Nuttall, Partner, and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners LP.  Eric manages the Ninepoint Energy Fund (NNRG) and the Ninepoint Energy Income Fund (NRGI), which are traded on the NEO Exchange. The Ninepoint Energy Funds are some of the largest actively managed energy funds in the world. Eric’s views on oil and gas commodities and equities are sought after by the media and investors.   

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Eric:  Are you still an oil bull? Do you think oil markets could rally in the second half of 2023? What is your view on longer-term oil market fundamentals? At current oil prices, how are oil and gas equities performing?  Are institutional investors still avoiding oil and gas equities?  With oil and gas equities at relatively low valuations, should we expect foreign takeovers? Why are Canadian oil and gas companies valued less than their US peers?  Does Canadian federal policy, like the cap on oil and gas emissions, impact the valuations of Canadian producers? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Eric Nuttall’s recent webinar “What does a possible recession mean for the oil trade?” (April 12, 2023) 
• Trans Mountain Pipeline Interim Tolls (June 2023) 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   

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This week our special guest is Daniel Yergin vice chairman of S&P Global and author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power”.   

Dan’s most recent book “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations” now has a revised edition. “The New Map” has been described as prophetic, predicting that Ukraine would be the scene of confrontation and conflict between Russia and the West. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Dan: Why did you foresee the conflict between Russia and the West playing out in Ukraine?  As a result of the invasion, is the world moving towards being more bifurcated? Do you think Russia’s oil and gas production will decline? Do you see any scenario in which Russia withdraws from the Ukraine war, or is greater escalation more likely? How has the relationship between the United States and China changed? What is China’s motivation for wanting to take back Taiwan?  How will the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) change the energy map and the US relationship with China?  Do you think the recent US permitting reforms will speed up projects? How would you describe the oil markets currently, short term and long term? Do you agree with the narrative that the world is underinvesting in oil supply? Do you see a scenario in which US shale oil would grow aggressively again? 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin 
• The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power by Daniel Yergin  
• See the online book about Peter Tertzakian’s Art Exhibit on the history of the light bulb  
• Visit Peter Tertzakian’s Art Exhibit at Elevation Gallery in Canmore (June 10 to 30) 

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The podcast is back after a summer break! This week, Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) joins the podcast to discuss the recent developments in Canada’s electricity markets. 

On August 4th the Alberta government announced that Alberta is pausing new approvals for large-scale wind and solar projects for six months. Peter and Jackie asked Vittoria about the industry's reaction to this news and if a pause was required to address the concerns raised by the government, such as the impact on pristine landscapes, reclamation security requirements, and the implications for the reliability of the power grid.  

A week later, the Canadian federal government released draft Clean Electricity Regulations. The policy aims to create a net zero electricity system in Canada by 2035.  Starting in 2025, the draft rules require all new power generation assets to have low emissions (limit of 30 tonnes of CO2/GWh) by 2035. Natural gas generation is permitted if the emissions are captured or if the facility is used for short periods or in emergencies.  Natural gas power plants built before 2025 can continue to operate with unabated emissions until they are 20 years old. Peter and Jackie discuss the draft policy, including the negative response from provinces with high-emitting power systems, including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 
Content referenced on this podcast:
 

• Canada’s Draft Clean Electricity Regulation (released August 10, 2023) 
• Electricity Transformation Canada Conference is being held October 23-25 in Calgary  

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The United Kingdom (UK) has had to balance its net-zero ambitions with energy security after suffering from a price shock in 2021 that increased the cost of energy and forced them to stop importing Russian natural gas. 

This week, Lord Martin Callanan, the UK’s Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Minister for Energy Efficiency and Green Finance) at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, joins the podcast. His responsibilities include CCUS, hydrogen, green finance, energy efficiency, and emissions trading. 

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Lord Callanan: How do you respond to those that oppose the licensing of new North Sea oil and gas developments? Has the UK changed its policies or subsidies to compete with the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)?  How can a carbon-market approach with price volatility compete against the certainty of the IRA-style, subsidy-based policy? How does the UK structure offshore wind, nuclear, CCUS, and hydrogen incentives to attract capital?   

Content referenced on this podcast:  

• See the live power generation on the UK’s National Grid: https://grid.iamkate.com/ 
• See the latest carbon clearing prices in the UK Emissions Auctions: https://www.ice.com/marketdata/reports/278  

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Before you know it, summer is gone and its back to school!  Peter and Jackie look back on the energy headlines of summer 2023.   

They start the podcast by discussing the new nuclear capacity announced in Ontario, with three additional small modular reactors (SMRs) announced and the potential for a significant expansion at the Bruce Power nuclear plant.  The excitement over room-temperature superconductors and another net-energy gain nuclear fusion reaction got their attention.  

Next, a review of why oil prices rallied in July and the outlook for the supply-demand fundamentals for the remainder of the year. 

Finally, Peter and Jackie cover some additional news on the pause for new renewable energy permits in Alberta, as well as some feedback and clarification on the draft Clean Electricity Regulations.

Content referenced on this podcast:

·       Canada’s Draft Clean Electricity Regulation (released August 10, 2023) 

·       The Alberta Government’s Frequently Asked Questions on the Renewables Inquiry and the Related Pause (August 25, 2023)

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The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference takes place every three years and has been described as the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  

This week, we hear from Lisa Baiton, President and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API). Both organizations will be at the WPC in Calgary.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked: With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has energy security become a greater focus in North America? Does the United States still consider Canadian oil and gas foreign? With the recent run-up in oil prices, are you concerned about how consumers will react to higher prices for petroleum fuels?  Is the oil and gas industry reducing GHG emissions? What is your response to people who want oil and gas consumption to end soon? Do you think greenfield oil or gas pipelines can be built between the United States and Canada?  What is the outlook for LNG exports from the US and Canada?  

Content referenced in this podcast:

• The World Petroleum Congress registration information: https://www.24wpc.com/  
• The Canadian conventional oil and natural gas sector emissions fell 24 percent in the last decade (CAPP analysis).  

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The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) will be held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference takes place every three years and has been described as the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. The organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors and 5,000 delegates from over 100 countries.  

This week, we hear from Matthew Crocker, Senior Vice President, Product, Strategy and New Assets, for ExxonMobil’s Low Carbon Solutions business. Matt, along with others from ExxonMobil will be at the WPC in Calgary.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Matt: ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook projects oil and natural gas will still make up more than half the world’s energy supply in 2050; why is ExxonMobil’s view of oil and gas demand more than some other scenarios such as the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)? Considering the amount of oil and natural gas demand in ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook, do you think it is possible to keep long-term global warming to less than 2°C? What was ExxonMobil’s intention for acquiring Denbury, a developer of CCUS solutions and enhanced oil recovery? What other investments is ExxonMobil making in CCS? Is ExxonMobil investing in biofuels? How is policy risk factored in when ExxonMobil makes low-carbon investments? 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• The World Petroleum Congress registration information: https://www.24wpc.com/  
• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050  

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The 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC) was held in Calgary from September 17 to 21, 2023. The conference is the world’s leading assembly for the petroleum industry. 

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss some conference themes, including the lively discussion on the future of oil demand and the decarbonization of oil and gas.  They also debate whether the industries’ messaging about the likelihood of higher oil and gas demand in the future needs to be adjusted to address the concerns this raises for achieving climate goals.

Jackie and Peter also share interviews they took part in at the event, including:

·       Shaikh Nawaf S. Al-Sabah, the Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of                     Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (“KPC”)

·       Mark Thomas, Group Chief Executive Officer, Bapco Energies

·        Jyoti Gondek, Calgary’s Mayor

·       Joy Romero, Executive Advisor Innovation at Canadian Natural Resources Limited             and President at CRIN (Clean Resources Innovation Network)

·       Kevin Krausert, CEO and Co-Founder at Avatar Innovations Inc.

·       Gillian McCormack, National Director, Clients & Industries at Bennett Jones

·       Taryn Humphreys, Director of Business Development at Qube Technologies

·       Eric Petursson, Director of Commercial at Entropy Inc.

·       Katie Smith-Parent, Business Development, Industry Diversification at Spartan                   Controls

·       Cindy Yeilding, Director, Denbury Inc. 

·       Harrie Vredenburg, Professor of Strategy and Sustainability, Haskayne School of                 Business, Research Fellow, School of Public Policy, University of Calgary

·       Dean Tucker, Chief Operating Officer and Vice Chair of the Board for the World                   Petroleum Congress

Content referenced in this podcast:  

·       See Peter’s art exhibit at Heritage Park, titled “Those Who Have Seen the Invention          Pronounce it Wonderful: A Modernist View of the History of Light”, learn more                     here: https://heritagepark.ca/exhibits/history-of-lightbulb/

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This week, our guest is the Honourable Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta. 

There are some important federal policies under development with implications for the province of Alberta, including Ottawa’s oil and gas emissions cap and the Clean Electricity Regulation (CER) that aims to move Canada to net-zero electricity by 2035. The Alberta government has also put a six-month moratorium, until the end of February 2024, on approvals of new renewable power projects. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Premier Smith:
From an energy perspective, how could the Alberta Sovereignty Act be used to respond to Ottawa’s policies?
 
What do you say to people who think the oil and gas industry is not reducing emissions fast enough, and therefore more policy is required?
A cap on oil and gas emissions, asking for a 42% reduction below 2019 levels by 2030, could cause production curtailments with negative implications for provincial revenues and oil and gas companies; how will this get reconciled?
What led Alberta to put a temporary moratorium on new permits for wind and solar projects?
Why do you think the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulation is
bad for Alberta?
Why did you launch a national campaign to bring awareness to the issue with the clean electricity policy?
Carbon capture and storage (CCS)project spending in Alberta is moving slower than most people anticipated; why is that, and can the province help?

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On October 13th, Canada’s top court ruled that Canada’s federal Impact Assessment Act (also known as Bill C-69 and sometimes called the “no-more-pipelines act”) is unconstitutional, with a 5-2 decision. 

To learn more about the decision and the implications for major projects in Canada and future environmental policy, we welcome Sander Duncanson, Partner, Regulatory, Indigenous, and Environmental at Osler to the podcast. Osler is a Canadian business law firm.   

Sander was one of the authors of “Supreme Court of Canada finds the federal Impact Assessment Act unconstitutional,” a briefing published by Osler the day of the ruling.  
 

Next, on the podcast, we talk with Chris Severson-Baker, Executive Director of the Pembina Institute, a Canadian environmental organization.  

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Chris: Have affordability issues reduced the focus on climate as a top concern? Do you see scenarios, such as the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, which assume a rapid decline in oil and natural gas demand as realistic? Do you agree with Alberta’s moratorium on new permits for renewable projects? In your opinion, does Canada’s oil and gas industry need a cap on its greenhouse gas emissions? What is Pembina’s position on developing Canada’s LNG export market? Do you view the plan for Canada to reach net-zero electricity by 2035 as achievable? What are your expectations for the upcoming COP28 meeting in Dubai?  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• Danielle Smith’s statement about the Supreme Court Ruling on X (formerly Twitter) 
• Pembina’s 2023 Alberta Climate Summit on October 26 in Calgary  

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This week our guest is Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy. Founded in 2019, the firm aims to help decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition. Rob lives nine time zones away in Estonia and is an uber-productive energy expert, covering a wide range of topics in his consultancy.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rob: What are your views on the likely demand for oil and gas in 2050? Assuming that oil and gas demand remains relatively high, is it still possible to achieve the current climate targets?  Do you think the cost of direct air capture (DAC) can be further reduced?  What are some of the technologies and solutions that are most effective in reducing GHG emissions at the lowest cost?  You have been warning about an energy shortage for some time, is this still a concern, especially considering that the energy markets have been relatively well-supplied in the past year? Do you think fusion energy can become commercial?   

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• Thunder Said Energy blog on the supply and demand for global energy and the concerns about under-supply: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/global-energy-supply-demand-balance/ 

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This week our guest is Jason Schneider, Director, Rural Municipalities of Alberta (RMA) and Reeve of Vulcan County in Southern Alberta.

The RMA is a progressive, independent association committed to meeting the diverse and changing needs of Alberta’s 69 counties and municipal districts. Since 1909, the RMA has helped rural municipalities advocate for strong, effective local government.  The RMA did not ask for a pause on new permits for renewables projects in Alberta; however, they do have concerns that they hope the inquiry will tackle, including the use of prime agricultural land for renewables projects and a lack of plans for reclamation and cleanup.

Jason is also an elected official in Vulcan County. Vulcan County is conveniently located close to Calgary and Lethbridge in southwest Alberta. Including the towns and rural areas, the total population is about 7,000 people. The County covers an area of about 6.5 times larger than Calgary.

Vulcan County currently has four renewable projects operating or under construction, approximately six approved projects, and about a dozen more in the pre-approval, early proposal stages.   

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jason:  What is the scale of the renewable projects in Vulcan County? Who benefits financially from the projects? What are some of RMA’s concerns with the current process for approving and permitting renewables projects?  Is the building of transmission lines also a concern? What are the requirements for reclamation of the projects? If the projects are on private land, why is reclamation a concern of the municipality? Does social media and misinformation contribute to opposition to renewable projects? If so, what is the best way to communicate accurate information to citizens?  What changes would you like to see from the Alberta Utilities Commission's (AUC) inquiry on the development of renewables projects?   

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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss recent news headlines, including some scary topics on this Halloween podcast recording. Here are some of the topics they discussed:

· Rising geopolitical risks.  Why are the oil markets calm in the face of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the potential for an oil outage? 

· ExxonMobil and Chevron announce significant acquisitions.  In contrast to the news headlines, Peter and Jackie argue that these acquisitions could make sense, even in the scenario that oil and gas demand declines.  

· Clean energy stocks tumble.  Clean energy indexes like the WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) are down about 35 percent since the summer. Why are stocks down, and what are the likely implications?

· Canada announces a three-year pause in the carbon tax for heating oil to help with affordability.  Yet, other sources of heating in the country do not get a break.  Jackie and Peter discuss the outrage in areas of the country that do not depend on heating oil for heat, as well as other possible implications.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

· Thunder Said Energy: War and commodities: how do conflicts impact prices? October 12, 2023

· The Clean Investment Monitor: Tracking Decarbonization Technology in the United States, Rhodium Group, MIT, CEEPR, September 2023

· Prime Minister of Canada Office (PMO) announcement “Delivering support for Canadians on energy bills,” October 26, 2023

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This week, Jean-Denis Charlebois joins the podcast. Jean-Denis is the Chief Economist at the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).  The CER released a report in June outlining three potential future energy scenarios, titled “Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050.”  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jean-Denis: Why did the CER publish net-zero scenarios for the first time in this recent edition? Are you concerned about how these scenarios are implicitly being used as predictions by politicians or other commentators on energy in Canada?  How much does Canadian electricity consumption increase in the CER scenarios? What is the potential market share for heat pumps? How does the mix of power generation change?  What is the future cost of carbon? Canada’s oil production is assumed to decline significantly in the net-zero scenarios; however, could supply be more resilient considering Canada's advantages as a stable, secure, and low-carbon supplier? What energy-focused capital spending is required for the Canadian net-zero scenarios, and how does that compare with history?  

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This week, our guest is Paolo Maccario, President and CEO of Silfab Solar. Silfab Solar is a Canadian company headquartered in Mississauga that manufactures solar panels in Ontario, Washington State, and South Carolina.  The South Carolina facility will manufacture solar panels and cells with operations expected to be online in the third quarter of 2024.  Cells are a critical input to making modules, and the South Carolina facility will be the first of its kind in North America. 

Paolo explains that with the significant incentives offered in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Canada is unable to compete with the United States to attract investment in solar panel manufacturing facilities. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie ask Paolo: Why have the share prices for publicly traded solar manufacturing companies fallen this year?  How has solar panel pricing changed in the past year? Have the US tariffs on Chinese panels resulted in a boost for US domestic manufacturing?  How impactful are the IRA incentives for solar manufacturing, both the production tax credit (PTC) and the investment tax credit (ITC)? How do the incentives in Canada compare with the United States?  What is the efficiency of solar panels today, and is there room for improvement?  How can manufacturers keep up with the rapid pace of technical innovation?  What is the state of solar panel recycling?  The Canadian government has offered more generous incentives for producing lithium-ion batteries, how do the jobs for manufacturing batteries compare with solar panels?  

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Silfab Solar Sustainability Impact Report 
• ARC Financial Sustainability Report  

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This week, Kelly Shue, Professor of Finance at Yale School of Management, joins the podcast.  Earlier this year, Professor Shue and her co-author, Professor Samuel M. Hartzmark, published “Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms.”  Their research paper concludes that the sustainable investing practice of divesting high-emitting companies (referred to as “brown” firms) in favor of low-emitting companies (referred to as “green” firms) is counterproductive to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie ask Professor Shue: Why did you conclude that the sustainable investing practice of divesting away from high-carbon companies towards low-carbon ones is counterproductive? What are some examples of “brown” and “green” companies?  What are the shortcomings of measuring the percentage GHG emission reduction of a company, as opposed to absolute reductions? Were you surprised to learn that oil, gas, and energy-producing firms are key innovators in the United States’ green patent landscape? What are your thoughts on the anti-ESG movement, where some US states are asking their pension funds to divest ESG-orientated companies? Do you think institutional investors, who have made hard goals around reducing their financed emissions, should consider changing these goals? What are the shortcomings in using the company-level ESG ratings provided by firms such as Sustainalytics, MSCI, and Bloomberg to identify green companies?

Other content referenced in this podcast:

-   Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms (2023) 

-  The ESG-Innovation Disconnect: Evidence from Green Patenting (2021) 

-  Yale Insights: Green Investing Could Push Polluters to Emit More Greenhouse Gases (2023) 

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This week, our guest is Matt Jamieson, President and CEO of the Six Nations of Grand River Development Corporation (SNGRDC). SNGRDC’s mission is to achieve economic self-sufficiency for their community by 2030. 

The Six Nations of the Grand River is located near Toronto and is Canada's most populated First Nation, with just over 30,000 members.  The Nation has established the Six Nations of Grand River Development Corporation, which has a separate governance and decision-making structure from the Nation’s political decision-making structure.  The corporation has become an equity partner in a variety of renewable energy projects, including transmission, wind, solar, and battery storage. The corporation has ambitious goals for delivering economic benefits to the community, targeting $150 million annually by 2030 in direct economic impact to the Nation.   

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Matt Jamieson: Why was a separate governance structure used for the corporation? What types of projects are you involved in?  How did you finance your equity share in these projects with your partners? Tell us about the Niagara Reinforcement Line and the Oneida Energy Storage Project? How has consultation with Indigenous communities on these types of projects changed over the past decade? What are your thoughts on the Fall Economic Statement that the Liberal government could introduce a multibillion-dollar loan program to help Indigenous groups in Canada buy equity in resource projects? What is your advice to Indigenous communities and companies who want to work with them on how to get started? 

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Six Nations of Grand River Development Corporation Website 

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Peter and Jackie start this week's podcast by discussing the latest developments at COP28 in Dubai, including whether the wording “phase-out” or “phase-down” of fossil fuels will be included in the final text.

Next, they talk about the Canadian energy policy announced by the Canadian federal government at COP28, including draft legislation to reduce methane from oil and gas by 75% from 2012 levels by 2030.  The government also issued a document on the proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, with a deadline to submit feedback by February 5, 2024, draft legislation by 2024, and final regulations in 2025.

Lastly, Kim Sturgess, CEO of WaterSMART Solutions, joins the podcast. WaterSMART Solutions is a leading consultancy for water management solutions.  With funding and support from Alberta Innovates, ATCO, Capital Power, Hydrogen Naturally, Kiwetinohk Energy Corporation, and the Municipal District of Greenview, the consultancy published a study titled “Water Impacts from Hydrogen Development in Alberta in 2023.”  Kim explains that water is consumed to make clean, blue, and green hydrogen and that the water source must be considered early in project planning. The report demonstrates that the full development of the hydrogen sector within Alberta is likely to both cause water supply challenges and be limited by water availability.

Other content referenced in this podcast:

- Draft legislation for the reduction of Canada’s oil and gas methane emissions by 75% by 2030 (versus a 2012 baseline)

- Regulatory framework for an oil and gas sector greenhouse gas emissions cap (for feedback by February 5, 2024) 

- WaterSMART Study of Water Impacts of Hydrogen Development in Alberta, 2023

- WaterSMART Infographic: Water for Alberta’s Hydrogen Economy, 2023

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On this week’s podcast, Jackie and Peter review the final takeaways from COP28. Next, they discuss the key energy themes that shaped the past year.  The 2023 top themes include:

1)  Artificial intelligence (AI) becomes mainstream
2)  Investors now understand the clean energy interest rate nexus
3)  2023 will be the hottest year on record 
4)  Affordability issues slow the uptake of clean energy technologies
5)  Policy-driven energy transition led by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
6)  Oil and gas markets shrug off geopolitical risk
7)  Big year for Canadian policy development – some opportunity and some frustration
8)  Canada has two CCS wins in 2023 – Air Liquide Net Zero Hydrogen/Imperial Renewable Fuels and Dow Chemical’s Zero Emissions Ethylene Cracker
9)  IEA appears to switch into climate advocacy mode 

 Content referenced in this podcast:  

· December 13, 2023 UN COP28 Global Stocktake
· December 6, 2023 CNN “2023 will officially be the hottest year on record, scientists report”
· December 15, 2023 The Hill “NOAA: Almost 100 percent chance 2023 will be the hottest year recorded” 

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Peter and Jackie start the year by reviewing the extreme cold in Alberta that caused a spike in electricity demand, resulting in the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) issuing four grid alerts between January 12th and 15th. The electricity supply-demand balance was the tightest on Saturday evening (January 13th), causing the Alberta Government to issue an emergency alert to people's mobile phones. About 200 MW of demand fell off the system within minutes of issuing the notice.  

Peter and Jackie also discuss other storms brewing on the horizon and introduce the 2024 energy themes to watch along with some predictions. Here are the energy-related topics they will be closely following: 

• The US Election 
• Canadian Politics and Energy Policy  
• Interest Rates 
• Military Conflicts and the Risk of Oil Supply Outages  
• Oil and Gas Markets 
• Climate Change Policy 
• Nuclear Power 
• Electric Vehicle Adoption 
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Energy 
• Clean Energy Investing 
• Oil and Gas Mergers and Acquisitions  

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This week, our guest is Roger Dall’Antonia, President and CEO of FortisBC.  FortisBC is a leading energy provider in British Columbia (BC), Canada. The utility serves about 1.1 million natural gas customers and 185,000 electricity customers. 

Roger explains the benefits of using natural gas to meet the peak winter heating demand and the challenges of using electricity to do the same. Because of the unique ability of gaseous fuels to flex up and meet demand, even on the coldest days, Roger sees a long-term future for gas. He explains how natural gas can become cleaner over time through a broad set of measures, such as increasing the amount of renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen and efficiency measures that use less natural gas. 

 Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Roger: What is the outlook for the supply and demand of electricity in BC? How will Site C hydroelectric demand change the market? Is BC too reliant on hydro, considering concerns around drought? Why has BC recently decided to launch a call for renewable power from large-scale wind and solar farms? What is RNG and how much potential supply is there? How are you involving Indigenous partners in your projects? What are your thoughts on the Clean Electricity Regulations targeting net zero electricity by 2035? Considering Atlantic Canada’s exception from the retail carbon tax for heating oil, could this be the beginning of the end for the retail carbon tax in Canada?  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

• The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)’s Data Centre 
• FortisBC’s Clean Growth Pathway to 2050 
• BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential Study 
• Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals  

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This week on the podcast, our guest is David Detomasi, an associate professor and distinguished faculty fellow in international business at the Smith School of Business at Queens University. He is also the author of “Profits and Power: Navigating the Politics and Geopolitics of Oil.”

First, Jackie and Peter discuss the potential impact of the Canadian government’s proposed cap on oil and gas emissions on smaller oil and gas producers. A reminder that the deadline for providing feedback on the Federal Government’s “Regulatory Framework for an Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap" is February 5th, 2024.

Next, Jackie and Peter interview David about his perspectives on the politics and geopolitics of oil. Here are some of the questions they asked him: Why is the expanding conflict in the Middle East having little impact on oil prices? Do you expect additional sanctions on Iran? Will the United States continue to protect the Middle East and critical waterways despite having less dependency on the region’s oil versus the past? Describe the United States and Saudi Arabian relationship and how it has been changing. How would you describe Donald Trump’s energy policy from 2017 to 2021? How should we think about the geopolitics of oil from a Canadian perspective? How can Canada balance climate goals with producing gas and oil?   

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This week, our guest is Carlos Pascual, Senior Vice President of Global Energy at S&P Global Commodity Insights.  

Carlos's past roles include establishing and directing the new Energy Resources Bureau at the US Department of State and serving as a senior advisor to the Secretary of State on energy issues. He has also previously been a United States Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine. 

Here are some of the questions that Carlos tackled:  How do you expect the US will react to the recent attack on an American base in the Middle East that killed three soldiers?  What is Iran’s motivation in the escalating proxy war? Is it possible that Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024? How does the US election factor into the US strategy on the Middle East conflict? What are your thoughts on COP28 and the “transitioning away from fossil fuels” language that was adopted? Do you think a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is possible? What is driving the growing divide between the Global North and Global South? Do you expect OPEC and Saudi Arabia will continue constraining oil production despite strong non-OPEC supply growth?

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This week, our guest is Greg Lyle, Founder and President of Innovative Research Group. Innovative Research Group is a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. The firm has recently done some interesting polling on how Canadians are thinking about energy infrastructure and energy transition. Greg also talked politics, giving us some insight into how Canadians would vote (based on polling) if a federal election were held today. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Greg: How much do Canadians know about the energy transition? How do they feel it will impact them financially? How do they feel about energy projects in general and near where they live? How important is climate as an issue versus affordability? If a federal election were held now, what political party would win? Do the Conservatives need a credible climate plan for the next election? 

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This week, our guest is Ellis Ross, an MLA in the British Columbia Legislature since 2017, representing the Skeena riding for the BC United political party (formerly the Liberal Party). His region includes the communities of Kitimat and Terrace on the northern coast of British Columbia. 

Ellis also currently serves as the Shadow Minister for Energy and LNG. Before being elected to the British Columbia legislature, Ellis Ross was the Chief Councillor for the Haisla Nation, in that position, he signed an agreement with an LNG developer to build a plant on the Haisla Nation reserves. 

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Ellis: Why did you enter provincial politics and why have you decided to run in the next federal election for the Conservative Party?  How has the LNG Canada project impacted people in your community?  What is the status of LNG Canada? What is the status of Cedar LNG, a smaller project in collaboration with the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation also located in Kitimat?  Is BC’s requirement for net zero LNG by 2030 effectively a ban on new LNG development?  What is the status of the transmission line and electricity supply, if LNG must be net zero by 2030? How do you think Canada should tackle the climate challenge and energy projects differently?  What is the potential for blue ammonia shipments by rail and tanker from the Northern West Coast to Asia? 

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• Edison Motors is a privately owned Canadian Clean Technology Company. In 2023, we built Canada’s first Production Electric Hybrid Truck; consisting of Edison make Powertrain, Chassis and Cab. 

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On February 16, 2024, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) announced some proposed changes to the draft Clean Electricity Regulations (CER). Initially released in August 2023, the draft legislation requires electricity production in Canada to be net zero by 2035. Peter and Jackie start the podcast by reviewing the recently proposed changes and discuss whether these changes are enough to win over the provinces that object to the proposed CER, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario.

Next, they introduce this week’s guest, the Honourable Todd Smith, Ontario’s Energy Minister and MLA for the Bay of Quinte in Ontario. Since the Conservatives came to power in 2018, Todd Smith has held various cabinet positions.

Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Minister Smith: When the Ontario Conservatives first came into power, renewable electricity projects that were agreed to under the Liberal government’s feed-in tariff (FIT) program were canceled, yet now Ontario is procuring new capacity for wind, hydro, biomass, and solar generation, why the change? Is Ontario having a nuclear renaissance? What are the plans to expand nuclear electricity? Where will Ontario source the enriched uranium for the new nuclear power plants? Is it realistic to see nuclear plants operating in other parts of Canada, such as Saskatchewan and Alberta? What is the role of natural gas for power generation and residential heating in Ontario? In November 2023, the Ontario IESO wrote a letter to the Federal Government on the proposed CER, saying, “The CER as drafted is unachievable by 2035 in Ontario…the policy would cause a resource shortfall”; what are your concerns and do the changes announced on February 16th improve the situation? Are you working with any other provinces that oppose the CER?

Content referenced in this podcast:
- ECCC’s Proposed Changes to the CER (February 16, 2024)
- The Ontario IESO’s letter to the federal government on the proposed CER

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Peter and Jackie discuss the latest energy headlines and policy announcements on this week's podcast. Listed below are the topics covered:

• The Alberta Government is lifting the moratorium on new wind and solar project permits, a policy that was enacted in the summer of 2023. 
• The Alberta Government introduces its 2024 fiscal budget.  Before the budget announcement, Premier Danielle Smith made the case for rebuilding the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund to help eliminate the revenue roller coaster that results from volatile oil and gas prices.  The budget also included Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) funding and a registration tax of $200 per year for each electric vehicle.  
• Qatar announced it will add more LNG capacity by 2030. Given Shell’s recent projection of more than 50% growth in global LNG demand by 2040 and that the US will supply 30% of total demand by 2030, what are the implications on LNG markets and the Canadian opportunity for LNG exports? 
• The IEA has been criticized for prioritizing climate advocacy over energy security. 

 Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Alberta Government’s News Conference to Lift the Renewables Moratorium “Renewed path forward for renewable energy – February 28, 2024”   
• Alberta Government’s Budget 2024 
• Blake Shaffer Tweet on the flat road tax for electric vehicles  
• Shell LNG Outlook 2024 
• Robert McNally’s Wall Street Journal Op-ed on the IEA “Climate Politics Neuters Energy Watchdog”
• A New York Times article on the development of white paints to cool the planet by scientists at the University of Purdue  

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This week, John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO at RBC joins the podcast. John is also the host of the Disruptors podcast. This episode is a joint podcast that is being made available on both the ARC Energy Ideas and Disruptors podcast channels. 

John, Jackie, and Peter discuss sustainable finance and Canada’s dearth of capital spending on energy transition and decarbonization.  

Questions covered during the podcast: Is the lack of a national taxonomy that defines what projects count as clean, green, and sustainable slowing investment? Should decarbonization projects, including reducing emissions from oil and gas, be included in the definition of sustainable finance?  What are the barriers to increasing private spending on Canadian clean energy projects? Considering the situation, is Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction goal achievable? To what extent are upcoming elections in the United States, Canada, and Europe slowing down clean energy investing?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• RBC’s “Sustainable Finance Framework” a document that outlines the bank’s approach and methodology for sustainable finance
• RBC’s “Climate Action 2024” an annual report on Canada’s net zero journey
• RBC’s Disruptors podcast hosted by John Stackhouse, also on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts and Spotify

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Peter is back from a one-week whirlwind trip to the UK where he was a guest on a government-hosted tour titled “Energy Commentators Mission.” During his visit, he met people working on the UK energy transition, including with offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and refining. 

Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear about Peter’s trip and takeaways, including interviews with some of the people he met in his travels.  We hear from: 

• Andrew Rodden, Energy Transition Zone Ltd.  
• Pilar Amieva, X-Academy 
• Allan MacAskill, Flotation Energy plc 
• Jeff Richardson, Fugro 
• Kieran Morton, Port of Aberdeen 
• Thomas Nicoll, SSEN Transmission 
• Emily Taylor, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) 
• Jonathan Turner, British Consul General, Calgary, Canada 
• Tiffany Langford, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, British High Commission based in Calgary 
• Marla Orenstein, Canada West Foundation 

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Recently, Alberta announced significant changes to its power market: short-term changes to stop economic withholding and a long-term redesign of Alberta’s deregulated electricity market into a restructured energy market (REM).  

This week, our guest, Blake Shaffer, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, helps us understand these changes.

Here are some questions Jackie and Peter asked Blake: Why does Alberta need a market redesign? Was the near-brownout during a frigid weekend in January a sign that the current system is not working? What is “economic withholding” and how does it contribute to higher prices? The REM is expected to have a “day-ahead market,” how does that work? The REM could also have a wide pricing range, from negative prices to ones that exceed the current maximum of $999/MWh. What is the benefit of a wide price range? Do the proposed changes hurt renewable power projects? The REM is also considering changes to transmission; how significant could these changes be?  Will the REM changes negatively impact entities that contracted power under the existing rules?  What are your views on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) legislation, that aims to make Canada’s electricity sector net zero by 2035?

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This week our podcast guest is Rachel Walsh, Environmental Commodities Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.  

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits?

Content referenced on this podcast:

• Clean Prosperity Canada
• ICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits 

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network.

Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?  

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• NYT article from January 2024:  “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow”  
• Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner Studio

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The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. 

Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  

Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) 
• The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) 

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The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This year’s budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care. 

 Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further. 

 Content referenced in this episode: 

• Canada Budget 2024  
•  RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at risk
• Trevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) 
• Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) 
• Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   

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Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast.  Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions?   To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement.  There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important. 

Content Referenced in this Podcast: 

• Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck 
• Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) 
• The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) 
• GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) 
• Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) 
• Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) 
• Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) 

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This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels.

One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030.  By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive.  Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.

The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough?

Research referenced in this podcast:  

• The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023” 

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This week, our guest is Dawn Farrell, President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation. On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) started commercial operations. Over a decade in the making, this milestone is a huge accomplishment. Originally built in 1953, the expansion project triples the pipeline's capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 B/d.   

This significant expansion of Canada's only oil pipeline to the West Coast comes at an important time since Canadian production was expected to hit the limits of the existing pipeline system later this year. The expansion will allow Canadian crude oil to access new markets in California and Asia, and it is expected to lift oil prices by increasing the number of buyers for Canadian oil. 

The TMEP is not without controversy, given its high cost (currently estimated at $C 34 billion compared with $C 7.4 billion in 2017), opposition to the pipeline in some areas of British Columbia, and the Federal government's purchase of the project in 2018.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Dawn: Tell us about the pipeline operations currently, has Alberta crude oil reached the dock in Burnaby, British Columbia? What are the logistics, operations, and safety precautions for moving the Aframax tankers from the Burnaby Terminal to the open ocean? What is the importance of this pipeline to Canada? What are some of the factors that contributed to the high costs? What is the process and timing for the current regulatory hearing that could change the tolls? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag (April 30, 2024) 

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Despite frequent pronouncements that the world should stop using coal, it still consumes vast amounts of black rocks. According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, coal's global primary energy consumption was about 15% above natural gas in 2022 and only 15% lower than crude oil. 

Coal consumption has yet to decline. Instead, coal use has plateaued for the better part of the last decade.  Because of its carbon intensity and large consumption, Peter and Jackie describe coal as the “herd of elephants” in the room for meeting aggressive decarbonization and climate goals under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

This week, our guest is Lara Dong, Senior Director, Global Coal Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lara explains why coal demand has been resilient and what to expect in the future. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Lara: Is coal consumption expected to stay strong? Why is China still building new coal power plants?  How does this compare to clean electricity additions in China, including wind, solar, and hydro? Is there still ongoing new investment in coal mines to add supply?  Why was 2021 a pivotal year for Chinese energy policy?  How did the 2022 energy crisis impact China’s and India’s energy policy for coal? Do you think the IEA Net Zero scenario, which assumes a 90% drop in coal consumption by 2050, is likely?  If Canada were to increase its LNG exports to Asia, would this decrease coal consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in the region?

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This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States.
 
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls?  Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province?  Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?  

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry  
• Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website 
• Supreme Court of Canada Judgment:  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec 

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According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.  

In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.

In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion. 

Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• CAPP Data Centre 
• US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) 
• Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC) 

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This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).  

The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement? 

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Remarkable digital notepad 
• Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado  
• Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba 

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Stephen Poloz, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Author, Special Advisor at Osler, and recently appointed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to lead a working group to explore how to catalyze greater domestic investments by Canada’s pension funds.  

This is Stephen's second appearance on the podcast. The first was in 2022 after he released his book The Next Age of Uncertainty.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Stephen: What precipitated the thesis that Canadian pensioners are better off with more investment in Canada? What can you say about the pension investment working group, the deliverable you are working towards, and the potential timing? Why has inflation been so persistent in Canada and globally? What are your expectations for Canadian interest rate announcements in the future? Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, recently said in a speech, it's time to “break the glass” and respond to Canada's productivity “emergency” – do you agree that productivity is an emergency? How important is free trade with the United States for Canada’s economy? What are your thoughts on the Canadian government committing tens of billions of dollars to support the EV sector in Canada? Are you concerned about Canada’s ongoing deficit budgets and growing debt levels?  

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On June 20, 2024, Bill C-59 received Royal Assent and officially became law, implementing its provisions into Canadian legislation. The Bill, along with Bill C-69, which was passed on the same day, introduced new subsidies to encourage investment in clean energy in Canada. Bill C-59 established the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Tax Credit. Bill C-69 created the Federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee, the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, and the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit. 

However, the positive impact of these new subsidies was overshadowed by the greenwashing regulations added late in the process for Bill C-59. The new greenwashing rules amend the Competition Act to require that claims made by companies about environmental, ecological, or climate change benefits can be verified. Because of the ambiguity of what is needed to comply with the rules, many energy companies have deleted all GHG emissions and other sustainability content from their websites, including annual sustainability reports and commitments to improve environmental performance in the future. 

This week on the podcast, our guest, Kaeleigh Kuzma, a Partner at Osler in the Competition, Trade, and Foreign Investment Group, explained the new greenwashing rules. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Kaeleigh: Why is greenwashing included in the Competition Act? Can you explain the provisions? What does “proper substantiation in accordance with internationally recognized methodology” mean? Why are the rules so vague, and what is the process for clarity? Do these rules only affect oil and gas and other heavy-emitting companies, or do they also apply to clean energy companies? What is the process for filing a complaint against a company to the Competition Bureau? What are the methods of enforcement? 

Other content referenced in this podcast:  

•  Osler’s detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. 
• Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) 
• Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act 
• Kevin  Krausert opinion “Ottawa’s anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovation” (June 20, 2024)

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This week, on our Calgary Stampede podcast edition, our guest is Avik Dey, President and Chief Executive Officer of Capital Power. Capital Power is a publicly traded North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta. Capital Power owns renewable and thermal power generation facilities, totaling over 9 GW of power generation capacity across 32 facilities.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Avik: Is it possible to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable electricity? Does Capital Power currently generate any electricity from coal? Do you expect small modular reactors (SMRs) to be built in Alberta in the future? Texas generates a greater share of its electricity from renewables than Alberta, yet Alberta is hitting the brakes on renewable development – how is Texas managing the increase in renewables, and what can Alberta learn? Are you concerned by the potential for rapid growth in electricity demand to fuel AI data centers in Alberta? Why did Capital Power recently cancel its proposed $2.4 billion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genesee project in Alberta? Considering the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, would you still invest in new natural gas generation in Canada? Any comments on Quebec’s plan to build and operate large-scale renewable projects in the province versus procuring the power from independent power producers?  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

Check us out on social media:  

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  

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