Americans are paying more and getting less for their health care than ever before. On the new season of Prognosis, reporter John Tozzi explores what went wrong. 

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Crypto was red-hot in 2021 — so much so that it spawned a whole ecosystem of related products, including the first Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund in the U.S. But can companies maintain enthusiasm for the growing industry as prices tumble in the new year? Hany Rashwan, co-founder and CEO of 21Shares, a provider of crypto exchange-traded products, joins this week's "What Goes Up" to talk about that and his company's plans for expanding its own offerings.

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Spasms of volatility continued to shake financial markets this week as the novel coronavirus spread in the U.S. and Europe. When will it all end and when will it be safe to buy this epic dip in the stock market? No one knows for sure. However, Naufal Sanaullah, chief macro strategist at hedge fund EIA All Weather Alpha Partners, explains what he’s looking for as a signal the tide is turning. Also joining the show is Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa, who discusses how volatility markets are handling the turbulence.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Wall Street’s Pros Fess Up: ‘We Don’t Know What’s Going On’

Trump Signs $7.8 Billion Virus Bill After Infections Increase

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While on the surface it looked like a calm week for the stock market, there was a lot of turbulence down below. Rising interest rates caused investors to rotate out of once high-flying momentum and growth equities in favor of beaten-down value stocks.

This week’s “What Goes Up” podcast breaks it all down with Ken Fisher, the author of 11 books and billionaire founder of Fisher Investments.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Rob Arnott Wants to Take a Victory Lap on Factor Crowding Call

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The rare bright spots for investing last year were those strategies that follow trends in markets rather than fundamentals. This successful approach included the AlphaSimplex Managed Futures Strategy Fund, which returned more than 32% for the year. Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist and portfolio manager at AlphaSimplex Group, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss her firm’s strategies, and what she’s expecting in 2023. 

“We do really well when there’s massive trends, when there’s dislocation, when things are uncomfortable,” she says. “And last year was definitely uncomfortable, particularly fixed income.”

One development she expects may make investors uncomfortable this year is the likelihood that inflation bottoms out at around 4%, rather than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. At that point, Kaminski says, “the Fed either has to say, ‘well, we’re no longer going to try’ or ‘we’re going to have to keep trying.’ And people are not going to like that either. So I think that that’s the challenge.”

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Chaos in Hong Kong. A cross-asset market shock in Argentina. And that dreaded yield-curve inversion—a fleeting drop in 10-year U.S yields below 2-year rates—goes viral by creating panic-selling in the stock market. It was quite a week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Global Markets Strategist Gabriela Santos joins this week's podcast to make sense of it all. Also joining hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan is Bloomberg cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa, who gives his take on the market volatility of August.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Countdown to Catastrophe? What the Yield Curve Means for Stock Bull Markets

Equities Are on ‘Borrowed Time’ as Recession Signal Nears Inversion

The Weekly Fix: Recession or Japanification. Which Is Worse?

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When it comes to the US Federal Reserve’s campaign to crush inflation by raising interest rates, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist Ellen Zentner says this: “I have a strong view that they’re done here—but they have left the door open.”

Zentner joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the Fed’s decision this week to pause rate hikes, and what she expects of monetary policy and the US economy going forward. Cooling inflation should keep the central bank on hold until it’s ready to cut rates next year, she says. In the near term, a potential government shutdown by Republicans would bolster the case for maintaining the status quo at the Fed’s November meeting. A shutdown, she explains, would leave policymakers without all of the economic data they need to make a decision.

“In monetary-policy making, uncertainty tends to lead to policy paralysis,” Zentner says. “If we’re lacking data that the Fed can officially sink its teeth into, then that’s going to lead to an inability to make a decision about the path for rates.”

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Sometimes, it’s best to rip up the playbook, hold your nose and buy some of the worst stocks you can find. That’s the message from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. He joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to explain.

“We like high quality portfolios, we like stocks that don’t have a lot of debt, we like stocks with growth and big global footprints,” Golub says. “But every one of those characteristics does well—or poorly—in certain situations.” Right now, the latter is the case, he contends. “Companies with deteriorating fundamentals that are heavily shorted are outperforming the market. And you wouldn’t normally think that, because those sound like they are negative characteristics.”

A company is shorted because investors somewhere are betting its headed for bankruptcy, which Golub says makes sense in a weak economy. But if the economy turns around, he adds, “they’re going to actually improve more than a really healthy company. And this is really frustrating for investors with a quality bias.”

Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg reporter Lananh Nguyen to discuss the takeaways from a busy week in bank earnings.

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It’s not just the prospect of deteriorating fundamentals that has Man Group’s Mark Jones skeptical about stocks these days. It’s also the risk of money flowing into fixed-income investments now that they’re sporting attractive yields. Jones, who is the deputy chief executive of the world’s largest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, joined the What Goes Up podcast to give his outlook on markets and explain what strategies have been working well at his firm.

“I think the risk-reward in equities is very, very tough at the moment,” he says. The first reason is a potential further cut in earnings expectations. Second is the flow of money into alternatives to stocks such as government bonds and corporate credit. “Whether that’s the consumer or whether that’s big institutional clients starting to come back to an asset class that, frankly, had fallen relatively out of favor, some of that flow of funds is also an issue for equities as just people move money around.”

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US Federal Reserve officials have been adamant that they’re looking to get inflation levels back down to 2%. But the path to that goal could bring pain to millions of workers, a possible trade-off that “doesn’t make sense,” according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment officer of global fixed income.

“This whole idea of there’s a magic to 2% doesn’t make any sense to me. You just had immense stimulus—let it play out,” he says on this week’s episode of the What Goes Up podcast. “Interest rates—how much would you have to move them to get the unemployment rate to a level to slow wages? It’s not worth it. Why would you take millions of people out of work because you need to go from 2.7% to 2%?” He called the Fed goal a search for “mystical perfection.” BlackRock manages about $2.7 trillion in fixed-income assets for its clients.

Rieder adds that the segment of the population that gets hurt by higher inflation is the one that would bear the brunt of any potential layoffs. Meanwhile, raising rates creates an income benefit to wealthier people who tend to be savers, he says. “It’s illogical to me.”

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The dollar has been in a slump against major currencies in the last few months, and betting on more declines has become a popular trade. Wells Fargo macro strategist Zachary Griffiths discusses how the election results could interrupt or continue the trend.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Robinhood’s Addictive App Made Trading a Pandemic Pastime 

Banks Brace for ‘Big Bang’ Switch on $80 Trillion Worth of Swaps

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Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what appears to be a shift in focus among the crowds of new day traders who were so influential in the U.S. stock market earlier this year. Says Sonders: “Really since mid-February, we've seen a shift — believe it or not — back toward some semblance of fundamentals driving stocks; a bit more of a quality bias, profitability bias, a little bit of a valuation bias.”

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Princeton University’s Alan Blinder is one of the most prominent economists to have expressed optimism that the Federal Reserve can engineer a so-called “soft landing” for the US economy—taming inflation without triggering a recession.

But Blinder, who served in the 1990s as a vice chair of the Fed and a member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, explains on this episode of What Goes Up why he’s toned down his assessment. A big reason is the change in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts inflation data for seasonal factors, he says. The result is that, while inflation moderated in the second half of 2022, it didn’t cool off as quickly as previous data indicated.

Blinder says that means there’s reason to expect more rate hikes from the Fed. “I think they still have a chance” at a soft landing, he concludes, “but it's a tougher chance than it was.”

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The shift to commission-free trading and the stay-at-home environment of 2020 helped usher a new army of day traders into the stock and equity-options markets. How will this influential cohort affect markets now that they account for a share of volume that rivals hedge funds?

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses this, the upcoming elections, and other market topics.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Mysterious Mega-Flows Rotate Through World’s Biggest Tech ETF

Day-Trader Options Action Is Spotted Yet Again in Nasdaq Surge

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Torsten Slok had been firmly in the “no landing” camp of economists. More positive than a “soft landing,” its adherents say the Federal Reserve will tame inflation without triggering a recession at all. But for Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, that all changed with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Now he’s bracing for a “hard landing.”

Slok joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the sizeable role regional banks play in the US economy, and the reasons why SVB’s collapse changed his outlook. A big reason is how regional banks may now change their behavior.

“Regional banks make up 30% of assets and roughly 40% of all lending,” he explains. That big chunk of the US banking sector is now looking at what happened to SVB and worrying what comes next. With a slowdown potentially underway thanks to the central bank’s rate hikes, Slok warns a reluctance to lend by SVB’s mid-size brethren might mean it comes “faster simply because of this banking situation.”

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Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried’s public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. 

Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried’s tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX’s implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX’s failure.)

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Why does Tesla joining the S&P 500 remind Wells Fargo Securities’ head of equity strategy of AOL and the dot-com boom and bust era? He also explains why he’s sticking with his year-end estimate of 3,850 for the S&P 500 even after the benchmark index reached that level in the first month of the year.

Mentioned in this podcast:

GameStop Record Surge Gives Win to Reddit Army in Citron Clash

Riskier the Better Is Rallying Cry of Day Traders Going Small

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Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has powered a breakneck rally in US equities this year, far overshadowing the US Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates. So how should investors sort out the fundamentals from the hype?

Mark Baribeau, the head of global equity at PGIM’s Jennison Associates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how he’s viewing the opportunity. He’s the lead manager of the PGIM Jennison Global Opportunities Fund, which is beating 99% of its peers with a more-than 30% gain so far in 2023. 

“The infrastructure layer that allows for this accelerated computing to go on is the way to play AI right now. Because we’re in the R&D phase, the applications are just getting developed,” Baribeau says. “Nvidia is an easy example. We kind of refer to their earnings release on May 24 as the ‘Big Bang’ because, in my history of doing growth equities since the ‘90s, I’ve never seen a company raise guidance for a quarter by $4 billion. That’s unprecedented.”

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Financial markets have become obsessed with the possibility of faster-than-normal inflation this year as economies reopen from Covid lockdowns. But inflation is a nuanced concept, so what different types of price rises should we expect? And most importantly, what does it all mean for markets in 2021? Joining the "What Goes Up" podcast this week to discuss this and other timely market topics is Philip Lawlor, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Market Brawl Breaks Out Ahead of Fed With Tech, Bitcoin Battered

15th century bowl found at yard sale sells for $722,000

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On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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The collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX cryptocurrency empire was accelerated when the head of a rival exchange announced he was planning to dump holdings of something called FTT—a token created by FTX that afforded some perks to investors who owned it. At one point, the token was one of the 10 biggest coins in the market, which would have made it eligible for the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund.

However, Bitwise never added FTT to the fund. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the damage caused by the implosion of FTX and explained why the fund snubbed its coin. “We look at assets that are at undue risk of being found in violation of federal securities laws,” he said. “FTT fell into that framework because we thought it was likely, or possible, to be deemed a security by regulators. And it was largely internally controlled, in our view.”

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At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk.

In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Robert Hormats, who has worked in senior economic and trade policy roles under five different U.S. presidents and spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., believes the Covid-19 pandemic has forced the government to embark on what could be considered an involuntary experiment with Modern Monetary Theory.

Now a managing director at wealth-advisor Tiedemann Advisors, Hormats discusses MMT, the U.S.-China relationship, prospects for a coronavirus vaccine – and how investors should think about all of it.

Mentioned in this podcast:

A Beginner’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory

Meet the Psychic That Big-Money Wall Street Traders Depend On

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If there’s one thing that keeps professional investors up at night, it’s being involved in a “crowded trade.” In other words, a position that’s become so popular that there are few investors left to get involved with it, so there’s risk of painful losses for all if the crowd heads for the exits.

That’s part of the appeal of microcap stocks for Patrick McDonough, a portfolio manager at PGIM Quantitative Solutions. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain his approach to analyzing these smaller, younger companies whose values are often measured in millions, rather than billions, of dollars. Since many investors are more comfortable with bigger, more-established companies, microcaps offer a unique and overlooked source of growth.

“It’s something that people have historically avoided,” McDonough says. “Which means it’s not crowded. So it’s an area we can go in and get a lot of upside.”

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Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares International Ltd., joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss this year’s collapse in cryptocurrencies and how traditional financial institutions are growing more comfortable with the asset class’s volatility.

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Negative interest rates! They’re all the rage in Europe, but could this trend come to the U.S. financial system in the foreseeable future? Lauren Goodwin, an economist and multi-asset portfolio strategist at New York Life Investment Management, explains how it could happen. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses the latest earnings reports from big tech and communications companies.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Another rate cut—Is the U.S. economy weakening?

First Obama, Then Trump, Now They Say Warren Will Crush Stocks

Alphabet Is a Money-Making Mystery But It Works

The 1963 Schwinn Catalog

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Treasury yields started to spike soon after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s edging closer to winding down its pandemic-era bond buying. But can stocks do well in that type of environment? Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, talks about that and what the surge in yields is signaling about the well-being of the economy. Plus, he shares his current strategy and discusses areas of the market he finds attractive.

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Rob Arnott, chairman and co-founder of Research Affiliates, has spent a lot of time studying market bubbles. He shares what he’s learned, and give his takeaways about the current environment for investors.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Rob Arnott Says It’s Insanely Stupid to Chase Market Bubbles

U.S. Stock Market Bull Run In Recession Makes Investors Anxious

Yes. It's a Bubble. So What?

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Veteran stock-market strategist Jeffrey Saut’s retirement lasted only three weeks. Now he’s back, to explain why all the hand-wringing about 2020 may not be necessary. Saut isn’t worried about the “longest bull market ever” coming to an end, despite fears in some quarters that the economy is near the conclusion of the business cycle. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Markets Live blogger Pimm Fox, who shares his views on the outlook for equities and commodities.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Peloton Stock Is Pummeled on Backlash From ‘Gift That Gives’ Ad

A 20-Carat Blue Diamond Is Sold for Almost $15 Million

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From our friends over at the Elon, Inc. podcast from Businessweek, hosted by David Papadopoulos, is this special episode we're sharing to our What Goes Up listeners. Please enjoy this episode, subscribe to their feed, and leave a review!
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For years, Tesla fans and critics alike have produced mock bingo cards ahead of Tesla earnings calls. And so, in honor of Tesla’s next call, which will be held Jan. 24 after markets close, the Elon Inc. crew produced our own bingo game. This week we preview Tesla’s Q4 2023 earnings and introduce our picks for which Muskisms will carry the day. You can download a PDF of this quarter’s bingo card here.

In this episode we also recap the other major events from the week: A visit to Auschwitz, a farewell to a former political ally and a paltry attempt at feud of the week.

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Danton Goei, who runs global investment strategies at Davis Funds, discusses what opportunities he's seeing around the world as the end of the coronavirus pandemic comes into sight. Yes, it’s a frothy market in the U.S., he says, but there are still opportunities in America and abroad.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Trading at 369% Premium, New Crypto Fund Astounds Even Bulls

Soaring Stock Valuations No Big Deal to Powell Next to Bonds

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Expectations that inflation will normalize to near 2% in the near term will “end in tears,” according to Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at brokerage StoneX Financial. He contends growth in consumer prices will remain closer to 5% for about a decade. Deluard joined the latest episode of the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he believes inflation will remain stubbornly high and what that would mean for markets. He also reveals what he calls “Silicon Valley’s Seven Deadly Sins.”

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Mimi Duff, senior client adviser at the $3 billion registered investment adviser GenTrust, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the outlook for markets, the economy and borrowing costs following the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and a second-straight quarter of negative economic growth.

Duff also explains the rationale behind some of the more interesting investments her firm is excited about, including biotech and uranium exchange-traded funds. And she gives her thoughts on the bond market, and what areas of markets are attractive following this year’s selloff.

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Crypto fanatics have been pining for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund for a decade now. But as the applications piled up, US regulators repeatedly declined to approve one, citing the risk of fraud and market manipulation in cryptocurrency markets.

But with the entrance of BlackRock Inc. into the race, many market watchers are hopeful that one or more spot-Bitcoin ETFs will finally get the go-ahead. After all, the world’s largest asset manager has a strong track record of getting funds past regulatory roadblocks. On this week’s episode of the What Goes Up podcast, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence join to discuss how BlackRock’s application dramatically changes the outlook for Bitcoin ETFs.

“When they filed, it was a whole different ballgame in my opinion,” says Balchunas. “The fact is they generally like to bring a gun to a knife fight. This is a firm who doesn’t like to lose, who knows what they're doing, and they must see something.”

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A slow-motion crisis is unfolding in the global commercial real-estate market, thanks to the double-whammy of higher interest rates and lower demand for office space following the Covid-19 pandemic.

John Fish, who is head of the construction firm Suffolk, chair of the Real Estate Roundtable think tank and former chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss the problems facing the sector and what’s being done to help.  

“The biggest problem right now is the capital markets nationally have frozen,” he says of the US. “And the reason why they’ve frozen is because nobody understands value. We can’t evaluate price discovery because very few assets have traded during this period of time. Nobody understands where bottom is.”

One step in the right direction, he says, is recent guidance from federal regulators that allows lenders more flexibility when it comes to borrowers who need to refinance properties.

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Investors’ imagination often goes to “dark places” in the face of uncertainty around issues like the new Covid variant and this week they might have overreacted, according to Kara Murphy, the chief investment officer of Kestra Investment Management who joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the wild week in markets.

Mentioned in this podcast

Hawkish Jerome Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three Years

Value Quant Trade Drops Near 1970s Lows in Covid Crash Echo

Omicron Variant Turns Traders Back Into Amateur Virologists

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Jeremy Siegel, a longtime professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast alongside Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, to discuss the state of the economy, inflation and markets. Siegel also threw in some advice for retail traders caught up in the meme-stock craze.

“I always recommend to young people, if you want to play with 10% or 15% of your portfolio in those games, fine. But, you know, put the other 85 into some sort of a long-term index fund that will have meaning for you when you finally become an adult,” he said. “Do not make that a big portion of your portfolio unless you have unbelievably excess money and you can afford to lose 80% of it.”

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The stock market has been getting very volatile as the US Federal Reserve continues its historic effort to squash rising prices. Proclamations from policymakers suggest the central bank won’t let up until inflation is under control—even if it means trouble for the economy. Officials may raise rates by another 75 basis points at their upcoming November meeting, and the same again in December, according to Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

“Seventy five is the new 25,” she says. “When you are raising rates in 75-basis-point increments and you’re not giving any time for it to process through and make its way through into the data, you’re playing a dangerous game,” she says on the latest episode of What Goes Up. “And the more you’re doing it, the more likelihood you create of having a recession—and a significant recession.”

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Up 1% one day, down an equal amount the next, the stock market’s been serving up a bout of volatility traders haven’t seen all year. There’s plenty to worry about and, by many measures, pessimism among investors is growing.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy and a two-decade Wall Street veteran, talks about the mood of the market, value versus growth, why the debt-ceiling reaction was surprising to her and why small-cap stocks can do well going forward – regardless of their earnings trends.

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Lee Ferridge, head of North America macro strategy for State Street Global Markets, has been bullish on gold since late 2018, when an attempt at quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve sent markets into a tailspin. From that moment, he knew the central bank’s balance sheet would only grow larger, a boon for real assets like gold. Now, the precious metal is smashing records, beating both stocks and bonds in 2020.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Kodak Pivots to Drugs After Abandoning Photography, Crypto

At Center of ‘Erratic’ Market Moves Is a Raging Recovery Debate

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David Bianco, chief investment officer of the Americas for fund manager DWS Group, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his cautious near-term outlook for the stock market: “We're quite concerned about the longevity of this cycle. I feel as if this cycle has aged quickly. It's aged mostly from very high inflation, much earlier than you typically see in the first couple of years of a new economic expansion.”

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Peter Atwater, the consultant and finance professor who coined the phrase “K-shaped recovery” to describe the rebound from the 2020 recession, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how a wide disparity in consumer confidence could affect the economy and markets. One thing that’s caught his eye lately: A troubling move out of stock-market investing and into online gambling among young people.  

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A rallying stock market and better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth are just the latest developments pointing Wall Street skeptics to the possibility of a US “soft landing.” That’s where the Federal Reserve gets inflation back down to around 2% without triggering a downturn.

For more than a year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has waged war on inflation while a chorus of adamant recession predictions has fallen flat. But even now, with inflation cooling and the economy looking to be on the glidepath, some big names remain uncertain that he can pull it off. Vanguard Group is one of them.

Joseph Davis, the firm’s global chief economist and head of its Investment Strategy Group, joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why that is, as well as offer his reaction to the latest interest-rate increase and give his outlook for the bond market. 

“To get inflation down that last yard to 2%, you have to see a modest weakening in the labor market, which means the unemployment rate’s going to rise—although hopefully not drastically, let’s say four-and-a-half percent over the next year,” he says. “Well, that’s a hundred basis-point rise. So by definition, that is a recession. Now, anyone who thinks that that’s a soft landing is spitting in the face of 150 years of history.”

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Peter Cecchini, founder and CEO of AlphaOmega Advisors, discusses the crazy year that was 2020 in markets, and gives his outlook for what’s to come. Topics include efficacy of the Federal Reserve, a boom in retail investor trading and zombie companies.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Day Traders Put Stamp on Market With Unprecedented Stock Frenzy

Sustainability SPAC Queen's Gambit Growth Capital files for a $225 million IPO

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While the drama surrounding regional US banks has largely subsided following the failure of three lenders in March, that doesn’t mean the ripple effects of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are over. This is according to Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equities at Research Affiliates, who joined the What Goes Up podcast to give her outlook on markets and talk about why she doesn’t foresee a soft landing for the economy.

“When the Fed raises rates and it breaks something, it rarely happens that it’s a very small break,” she says. “Usually it’s a very big break. And so while I’d never thought that we would get to a great-financial-crisis level of breakdown, I do believe—and I did believe, and I still believe—that there would be more things that break. Whether that continued to be in the small regional banks or whether that bled over to something else such as real estate lending, private credit—definitely those dangers still remain out there.”

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The stock market got off to a roaring start this year with the S&P 500 at one point clocking a year-to-date gain of more than 4%. Truist Wealth Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner, however, is skeptical of the New Year bounce. He says the possibility of a recession and dwindling liquidity make the rally unsustainable. 

Lerner joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s advising clients to take a defensive posture with investments, and what he believes is the best way to execute that strategy. “Being defensive from a stock, bonds and cash perspective is being overweight fixed income relative to equities. And then—in the fixed-income component—keeping it simple: keeping it with high-quality fixed income and not really taking a lot of credit risk at this point.”

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The furious rebound in the U.S. equity market over the last few months runs the risk of turning into a "melt-up," according to Wells Fargo strategist Anna Han. She explains what’s driving the surge and why it’s worrying.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Bleak Message of Economic Pain Underlies Tech’s Market Dominance

Tesla Short Shorts

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The U.S. Treasury is auctioning a dizzying amount of bonds to pay for the government’s economic relief efforts. Will the market be able to digest this mountain of supply? Wells Fargo Securities macro strategist Zachary Griffiths discusses.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Bond Traders Signal the Path to Reopening Will Be Long and Bumpy

​​​​​​​Kudlow Says China Will Be ‘Held Accountable’ for Coronavirus

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The U.S. stock market’s melt-up seems to have ended in spectacular fashion this week, and now many on Wall Street are turning their attention to the election in November as a potential source of risk. Nela Richardson, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, shares her take on this week’s market action and what to expect in November.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Low Rates Lead Investors to Look Beyond the Classic 60/40 Mix

Volatility Markets Brace for Election Drama Like Never Before

Mystery Solved: Days Like This Are What the VIX Warned About

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Many traders expected this summer to be a volatile one for U.S. markets, but so far it’s been quiet as can be. What happened? Chris Gaffney, head of world markets at TIAA Bank, joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss. 

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Second quarter earnings season has officially begun. This week, the biggest banks set the stage for what could mark the S&P 500’s first quarterly profit decline in three years. Will underwhelming results be enough to spur further gains in equities this year? Evan Brown, head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management, and Bloomberg finance reporter Lananh Nguyen, join Sarah Ponczek and guest co-host Chris Nagi this week. Also on the episode, a look at U.S. dollar policy with the possibility of intervention in the headlines.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Banks' Record Earnings Show Fed Is Key to Whether Fun Continues

BofA Counters Trading Slump With Gains in Consumer Banking

Mnuchin Currency Remark Seen Raising Risk of FX Intervention

White House Knows It Needs the Fed to Make a Dent in the Dollar

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The buzz on Wall Street this week was about the latest earnings reports from the big banks, and a Vanity Fair report on suspicious “Trump Chaos” trades in the futures market. Meanwhile, a small nation in the Caribbean still claims bragging rights as one of the world’s hottest stock markets. 

Breaking it all down this week are Bloomberg’s Felice Maranz and Chris Nagi. And the podcast welcomes a special guest, Jamaican commerce minister Audley Shaw, who explains how sky-high interest rates decades ago helped fuel growth in the nation’s junior stock market.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Credit Cards Are a ‘Bright Spot’ in Bank Earnings, Analysts Say 

‘There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On:’ The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades

Welcome to Jamaica, Home of the World’s Best-Performing Stock Market

Analysts Have a Few Problems With Trump ‘Chaos Trades’ Article

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With apologies to Bruce Springsteen, as the Fed prepares to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, it looks like There Is No Alternative (again!) to U.S. equities. Is the S&P 500's rally to a fresh record a new lease on life or the last gasp before it succumbs to a corporate earnings slide? Two of Bloomberg’s finest, senior markets editor and columnist John Authers and cross-asset reporter Vildana Hajric, join Mike Regan and guest co-host Emily Barrett on this week’s What Goes Up podcast to discuss.

It's a sober view from these stock market highs. Authers walks us through the signals he’s seeing in Shiller’s CAPE measure, which suggest that current valuations are "utterly, utterly dependent at this point on low interest rates." Hajric prepares us for a less-than-stellar quarterly earnings season but, as a special bonus, she catches us up with what’s going down in the world of Bitcoin billionaires, the Winklevoss twins.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Shiller's CAPE Reveals Dangers Lurking in Stocks: John Authers

Maybe $5 Trillion Is All That Can Be Wrung From Stocks This Year

Grim Earnings Forecasts Are Getting Worse by the Week in S&P 500

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From artificial intelligence to electric vehicles and travel stocks, some of the previously hot equity-market themes have borne the brunt of the selling during the market’s dip in August and September. Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive of Defiance ETFs LLC, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss why that is. She also makes the case for buying the dip. 

“Everyone kind of panics, sells off tech, sells off growth and goes back into cash, cash equivalents, staples and kind of the defensive types of plays,” Jablonski explains. But “these are actually great opportunities, especially if you’re a young person investing for the long term. These are amazing opportunities to dollar-cost average. That’s how I would characterize this market this year.”

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Financial markets around the world have been roiled by the spread of the novel coronavirus, and it’s unclear what if anything the Federal Reserve and other central banks can do to stop the bleeding. Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab Corp., joins this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the limited impact the Fed may have. Bloomberg’s Chris Nagi also joins the discussion to discuss the historic plunge in the stock market.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Wall Street Seeks the Right Metaphor for the Virus Meltdown

Reddit’s Profane, Greedy Traders Are Shaking Up the Stock Market

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While China’s stock market has been seen as a pariah by some global investors this year, Citigroup is taking a contrarian view, positing a bullish outlook for the nation’s equities even while favoring defensive stocks in the US. 

Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi US Wealth Management, joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how the firm is sizing up investing opportunities amid an uncertain economic outlook. 

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A lot of investors are sitting on piles of cash. In fact, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management estimates its clients are more overweight with cash now than they’ve been in a decade. 

But attractive buying opportunities could be lurking, including in fixed income, US mid-cap stocks and European equities, according to Chief Investment Strategist Tom Kennedy. 

He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss corners of the market—in the US and abroad—that look enticing. He also talks about how Europe managed to avoid a recession, and why the US Federal Reserve is likely done with its hiking campaign, among other things. 

“Cash very rarely outperforms, and it takes a long time for rates to go up, but they can come down really fast,” he said. “The last seven business cycles, when you have the last rate hike from the Fed, in the two years after that, cash tends to underperform duration assets.”

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Economic growth in 2021 is forecast to be unlike anything seen in the last several decades as the world begins to return to normal following the Covid-19 pandemic. Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the latest “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what to expect and how he’s advising investors to allocate portfolios. 

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Sometimes it feels like you need to be a rocket scientist to trade successfully in modern markets. Well, George Patterson used to be one, having began his career at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory before turning his attention to investing with quantitative strategies.

Now he’s the chief investment officer of PGIM Quantitative Solutions, which oversees about $91.5 billion of PGIM’s $1.5 trillion in assets under management. Patterson joined the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss his approach and share his thoughts on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight it, and what it all means for markets. Normalization of inflation will be a “multi-year trend,” he says.

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Flows into ProShares exchange-traded funds this year show investor appetite for investments that benefit from a declining stock market as the coronavirus threatens economic growth and investor confidence. Simeon Hyman, head of investment strategy at ProShares, and Bloomberg’s Rachel Evans explain how investors are positioning themselves amid the uncertainty. 

Mentioned in this podcast:

Riskiest ETFs Get Green Light, But Brokers Might Not Touch Them

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On this new show from Bloomberg, hosts Mike Regan and Sarah Ponczek are joined each week by expert guests to discuss the main themes influencing global markets. They explore everything from stocks to bonds to currencies and commodities, and how each asset class affects trading in the others. Whether you’re a financial professional or just a curious retirement saver, What Goes Up keeps you apprised of the latest buzz on Wall Street and what the wildest movements in markets will mean for your investments.

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The OPEC+ oil cartel may not ramp up oil production enough to offset the loss of Russian supply that has sent crude above $100 a barrel, according to Javier Blas. Blas, the co-author of “The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources” and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the global energy supply shock. One highlight of the conversation: “Putin has been talking to Mohammed bin Salman, who is the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. And they have been talking about energy and energy cooperation. So I think that OPEC may not come to the rescue this time, just because they're just working with the Russians.”

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Bloomberg's Travel Genius podcast is back! After clocking another hundred-thousand miles in the sky, hosts Nikki Ekstein and Mark Ellwood have a whole new series of flight hacking, restaurant sleuthing, and hotel booking tips to inspire your own getaways—along with a who's who roster of itinerant pros ready to spill their own travel secrets. From a special episode on Disney to a master class on packing, we'll go high, low, east, west, and everywhere in between. The new season starts Nov. 6.

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When Steve Sosnick recalls 2008 and tries to make parallels to the current turmoil in the banking sector, one memory sticks out: riding the elevator with Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers, who offhandedly asked him “what’s new?”

“And I said, ‘what’s really interesting to me is the story that I’m reading this morning about how Bear Stearns may have as much as $20 billion in losses at some of their hedge funds,” recalled Sosnick, who’s currently chief strategist at Interactive. “And he said, ‘what’s their market cap?’ And I said, ‘I think about $20 billion.’”

“‘Are you telling me Bear Stearns is broke?’” Peterffy asked. Sosnick recalls saying, “‘I guess I am, aren’t I?’”

Sosnick joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss what lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can be applied today. Though the current predicament isn’t similar to that period—banks are in much stronger positions and the economic backdrop is vastly different—it’s important to keep lessons learned in mind, he says. 

“They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes,” Sosnick says. “And I think there’s a certain rhyme to it, but we’re not there yet. And I certainly hope we don’t get there.”

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The killers of Berta Caceres had every reason to believe they’d get away with murder. More than 100 other environmental activists in Honduras had been killed in the previous five years, yet almost no one had been punished for the crimes. Bloomberg’s Blood River follows a four-year quest to find her killers – a twisting trail that leads into the country’s circles of power.

Blood River premieres on July 27.

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They’re baaaaack! Day-trader cult stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. are dominating investors’ attention once again, with eye-popping rallies and crashes and even some free popcorn thrown in for those with the gumption to ride the rollercoaster. Kevin Russell, the chief investment officer of the $9 billion hedge-fund manager UBS O’Connor, discusses how his team tries to stay a million miles away from these companies. Russell also details the bull case for China, his outlook on inflation, and some big winning pair trades made at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.

Mentioned in this podcast:

AMC Looks Less Like a ‘Cult Stock’ and More Like an Actual Cult

Meme Mania Rekindles Small-Trader Love Affair With Options

AMC Stock Sale Comes With Warning to Traders: Be Prepared to Lose It All

Biden to Amend Trump’s China Blacklist, Target Key Industries

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Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, returns to bring you another season of on-the-ground insight into the forces driving global growth and jobs today. From the cosmetics maker in California grappling with Donald Trump's tariff war, to the coffee vendor in Argentina burdened by the nation's never-ending crises, Bloomberg's 130-plus economic reporters and economists around the world head into the field to tell these stories. Stephanomics will also look hard at the solutions, in the lead-up to Bloomberg’s second New Economy Forum in Beijing, where a select group of business leaders, politicians and thinkers will gather to chart a better course on trade, global governance, climate and more. Stephanomics will help lead the way for those debates not just with Bloomberg journalists but also discussion and analysis from world-renowned experts into the forces that are moving markets and reshaping the world. The new season of Stephanomics launches Oct. 3.

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Institutional investors are playing a more-influential role in crypto markets as retail traders retreat, and that explains much of the recent range-bound price action, according to Michael Safai of proprietary trading firm Dexterity Capital. 

“We might have been playing checkers two years ago,” said Safai, whose firm traded more than $1.2 trillion in crypto last year. “We’re playing chess now.” 

Safai joined the What Goes Up podcast this week to discuss the state of the digital-asset market and how high-frequency crypto trading strategies differ from the famous “Flash Boys” of the stock market. 

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All eyes are on the Group of 20 nations meeting in Japan this weekend, with investors on the edge of their seats for news of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. News reports suggest that expectations are low. But what are markets signaling? Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide Funds Group, weighs in. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Markets Live blogger Ye Xie with insights on what China needs to get a trade deal done.

Mentioned in this podcast:

A Scary View on What the G-20 Means for Stocks and a Calming One

Record highs on Fed dovishness and trade optimism

Buy Low-Tops, Sell High Tops: StockX Sneaker Exchange Is Worth $1 Billion

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While the bear market in stocks has been alarming, dislocations in the corporate credit markets are arguably more dangerous for the stability of the financial system and the economy. Winifred Cisar, head of credit strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, gives her thoughts on the situation.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Global Credit Market Turmoil Rips From Australia to U.S. Munis

Fed Feels Heat to Pump Out More Loans, Go Past Crisis-Era Rules

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When you think of the Periodic Table of Elements, what comes to mind? Maybe chemistry class, or flashbacks to memorizing combinations of letters and numbers. But what about markets? This week on “What Goes Up,” the team behind Bloomberg Businessweek’s latest issue joins to make the connection. Bloomberg's Joel Weber, Jeremy Keehn and Eddie van der Walt discuss elements from gold and silver to helium and gallium.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Bloomberg Businessweek’s The Elements 

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Promising results in a coronavirus vaccine test triggered a wild rotation in the stock market this week. Lauren Goodwin, economist and strategist at New York Life Investments, joins the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the opportunities and pitfalls for investors looking to position for a post-Covid world.

Mentioned in this podcast:

These Charts Show the Euphoria the Pfizer Vaccine News Created

Rotation Trade Turns to Duck-and-Cover as Coronavirus Runs Amok

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Investing in farmland has historically offered an attractive and stable source of returns, yet it’s not an easy asset class for most investors to access. Carter Malloy founded a platform called AcreTrader in an effort to make it easier to purchase fractional ownership of a farm. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss some of the benefits and risks of this type of farmland investing. 

“You don’t have big, huge up years and huge down years that you do across so many other mainstream asset classes,” Malloy says. “So the consistency of the returns and that relative lack of volatility—in investor speak, the Sharpe ratio—of farmland can be very, very attractive.”

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Relations between the U.S. and China took a dangerous turn this week, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams: It’s now a technology war, not just a trade war. She joins co-hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan on the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast. Also joining the show is Bloomberg’s Emily Barrett, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team, who talks about expectations for a low-inflation environment reflected in market pricing and what the latest Federal Reserve minutes signal for the path of interest rates. 

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It’s the top question on the minds of everyone involved in the markets these days: How long is “transitory” when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s view on hotter-than-normal inflation? Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer at SEI Investments, discusses why his firm is “happy to take the side of an overshoot” when it comes to rising prices. He also discusses the flaws of simplistic 60/40 investing and how there’s more to building a diversified portfolio than just buying an index.  

Mentioned in this podcast:

Powell Has Wall Street Buying View That Inflation Won’t Last

Your Unloved Heirlooms Might Mean Serious Money

Car Dealers Are Selling More Vehicles Above the Sticker Price

An NFT of the World Wide Web Source Code Sold for $5.4 Million

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week insisted that a plan to buy Treasury bills to build up excess bank reserves wasn’t the same thing as the central bank’s previous asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, or QE for short. Markets, however, reacted similarly to how they behaved during QE, with risky assets like stocks rallying and the Treasury yield curve steepening. Medley Global Advisors Macro Strategist Ben Emons and Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa discuss the significance of the Fed’s latest move.

Mentioned in this podcast:

A Repeat of 2018’s Rout Is Likely Coming, Veteran Investor Says

Nonsense Market Moves Have Investors ‘Exhausted’ by Trade Talks

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George Cipolloni’s son is a video-game aficionado, and the teenager’s language has clearly worn off on his father. Indeed, the portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management jokes he’s found a “cheat code” in the bond market that’s helped his balanced strategy beat its benchmark with a heavy allocation to high-yield corporate debt. But don’t be alarmed: His “code” is really just fundamental analysis used to find bonds with attractive yields, but little risk. 

Cipolloni joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the strategy and offer his reaction to the wild ride in markets following the surprise inflation report on Sept. 13. Some highlights of the conversation: 

“So the ‘cheat code’ in the bond market for me and for our strategy is: Where can you limit risk or where can you lower risk in a high-yield security? Well, you can find certain smaller securities because we are a small fund at the moment and we can buy these smaller securities, smaller issues. And you can find companies that have more cash than debt on the balance sheet.”

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What generation will drive the consumer economy and create stock-market winners in the post-pandemic world? Lauren Hill, a portfolio manager and analyst at Westwood Holdings Group Inc., says it will be a boom led by Baby Boomers, who have the most wealth and high vaccination rates. She discusses where consumer spending is headed and what stocks are poised to benefit the most. 

Mentioned in this podcast:

Treasury Yields Slip Below 1.5% as Inflation Fears Ebb

Gap’s Deal With Kanye West Starts With a Single $200 Jacket

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A few decades ago, nobody really questioned vaccines. They were viewed as a standard part of staying healthy and safe. Today, the number of people questioning vaccines risks prolonging a pandemic that has already killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. How we got to this moment didn’t start with the rollout of vaccines or in March 2020, or even with the election of Donald Trump. Our confidence in vaccines, often isn't even about vaccines. It’s about trust. And that trust has been eroding for a long time. Doubt, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis podcast, looks at the forces that have been breaking down that trust. We'll trace the rise of vaccine skepticism in America to show how we got here — and where we’re going. Doubt launches on March 23. Subscribe to Prognosis today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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FTX is a phenom in the world of crypto exchanges. The company has grown tremendously since its inception a few years ago. This week, Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive officer of the cryptocurrency exchange, testified to Congress about how the space should be regulated. The next day, Bankman-Fried and FTX US President Brett Harrison joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about that and more.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Crypto: Best Photos of 2021

Key Takeaways From Crypto Stablecoin Hearing Before House Panel

FTX’s Bankman-Fried on Crypto Regulation, Solana Meltdown, NFTs

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The swift rise in Treasury yields that triggered some wild swings in the stock market stopped this week – at least temporarily. Shawn Snyder, the head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management, joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what caused yields to cool off and what to expect next.  

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With passive and factor investing dominating the strategies of more and more investors, one would be forgiven for thinking that traditional bottoms-up stock picking is a dying art. But they’d be wrong. This week features Glenn Gawronski, who led the JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund to a top 1% performance in its Morningstar category before leaving to start his own investing firm called Byron Place Capital Management. Also joining the show is Bloomberg columnist John Authers, who talks about some of his recent columns about value investing and the European debt crisis. 

Mentioned in this podcast:

A Three-Legged Stool Approach to Finding Great Stocks To Invest In

Value Investing’s Time to Shine Again Is Approaching

Now We Can Say Euro-Zone Crisis Is Finally Over

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During the day-trading craze that erupted amid the Covid-19 pandemic’s lockdowns, market professionals repeatedly warned a new flock of Reddit-reading, Robinhood-using retail investors that equity options were risky, and that bold bets in that market could end badly. It turns out their caution was spot on.

Day-traders managed to lose more than $1 billion during the bull market, with the bill climbing to $5 billion when the cost of doing business with market-makers is factored in, according to Svetlana Bryzgalova, Anna Pavlova and Taisiya Sikorskaya of the London Business School. The three researchers joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about the findings of their study, and discuss what retail traders need to know about options trading.

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Troy Gayeski, chief market strategist at FS Investments, says don’t wait until May to flee the stock market rally—get out now. He joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain why he’s expecting the S&P 500 to bottom out at around 3,200, a roughly 22% drop from current levels.

“First of all, the strongest rallies have always been in bear markets,” he says. “Usually they’re driven by technical factors. And then there’s a narrative that’s put together to justify it: the more recent one was that inflation’s going to slow enough that the Fed won’t have to hike anymore, and then we’re going to have a recession and somehow that’s going to cause the Fed to cut rapidly. But recessions aren’t bad for revenue or earnings? It really makes very little sense.”

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It was a fabulous year to be invested in stocks or bonds. But what’s in store for 2020? Nela Richardson, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, and Bloomberg columnist Cameron Crise give their outlooks. Richardson says a lot of older clients are reluctant to make less risky investments due to the huge returns they’ve enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, the rally in bonds has pushed interest rates down and made the returns on fixed-income look unappealing. 

Mentioned in this podcast:

Maybe It’s Time to Start Worrying About Euphoria in U.S. Stocks

U.S. Yield Curve Hits Steepest Point in Over a Year

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From the renewed and growing power of American organized labor to the case for minting a $1 trillion coin to end debt-ceiling brinkmanship once and for all, Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast has tried to tackle some of the most important topics related to the economy and financial markets. From Modern Monetary Theory to Bidenomics, the show hasn’t found a topic it can’t chew on.

Now, the podcast’s hosts get the chance to answer some questions instead of asking them. Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal joined the What Goes Up podcast to give their takes on some of the hot-button issues of the day.   

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Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at Texas-based G Squared Private Wealth, joined the latest episode of “What Goes Up” to discuss the mood of clients and why she thinks the 2022 market selloff isn’t over yet.

“Not to sound like a snob, but I need a solid panic,” she says. “We just haven’t seen that solid, absolute capitulation—everything selling off. We aren’t there yet.” 

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Based in Sydney, Australia, David Adams, the chief investment officer at Reminiscent Capital, picked up on funding market stress early on. That helped his firm’s Asia-focused macro strategy implement a multi-step trade that delivered a 16.5% return in the first quarter of 2020. He joins the latest “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss how it worked, and what markets are signaling now.

Mentioned in this podcast: 

Bad Breath Offers a Rare Payoff in Listerine-Royalty Stake Sale

Banksy's Covid-19 Warning

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As 2020 approaches, the financial industry is busy issuing global outlooks for the new year. Recession? Trade deal? Higher or lower bond yields? Wilmington Trust Corp. threw another major risk into the mix: the continued rise of populism. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington and a former adviser with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, weighs in. Also joining the show is Bloomberg’s Katherine Greifeld, who discusses the recent drop in bond yields and what’s arguably the most-boring foreign-exchange market since 1976.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Currency Doldrums Spur Complacency Risk That Could ‘Destroy Profits’

Bond Market’s Fate Hangs in Balance Before Trade-War Crunch Time

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Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer for the hedge-fund manager Bridgewater Associates, discusses this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the firm’s approach to identifying excesses and bubbles in financial markets.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Fed Upgrades View of Economy While Keeping Rates Near Zero

Powell Breaks Out the ‘Froth’ Word When Asked About Markets

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The U.S. Federal Reserve’s effort to tame inflation with aggressive interest-rate hikes has some investors worried that a recession is inevitable, leading to a plunge in stock prices this year. Not so fast, says Jeremy Zirin, senior portfolio manager and head of private client U.S. equities at UBS Asset Management.

Zirin joined the latest episode of What Goes Up to discuss his outlook for markets and the economy, and why he thinks the probability of a soft landing and longer expansion is higher than many believe. 

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The chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has a warning for investors who are chasing the latest rally in stocks: Don’t get too excited about a potential peak in inflation after the consumer price index cooled off a bit in July.

Lisa Shalett joined this week’s episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to explain the firm’s cautious stance toward the market, and how CPI is still elevated enough that the Federal Reserve needs to continue lifting rates aggressively. “The direction is correct, but the levels are wrong,” she says of the latest inflation data. 

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The rebound in the stock market from the pandemic-induced recession has been breathtaking, with the S&P 500 doubling from its low point in March 2020. Has the proverbial “easy money” all been made? Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, discusses what to expect in the second year of the bull market. She also talks about the outlook for interest rates and inflation and a host of other current market topics. 

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The U.S. stock market’s best first half of a year since 1997 is in the books, as is a ferocious rally in Treasuries, and the second half is poised to be dominated by speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates as cracks appear in the longest economic expansion on record. Despite the fireworks in equities and sovereign bonds, currency markets are stuck in some of the narrowest trading ranges on record. Joining the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the first half and the outlook for the rest of the year are Pimm Fox, a blogger for Bloomberg Markets Live, and Katherine Greifeld, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Be ‘Prepared for Anything’ as Trump Slams Europe, China on FX

One Look at Passive Flows Explains the Story of Markets in 2019

Trump Wants the Fed to Weaken the Dollar. Powell Says That’s Not His Job

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The Federal Reserve has the stock market’s back, right? That’s what a lot of investors have come to believe. The so-called “Yellen put” (after former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has rolled over into the “Powell put” (after current Fed Chair Jerome Powell) in trader parlance that likens central bank policy to options contracts protecting against losses in equities.

But what if the Powell put doesn’t do the trick this time, and economic data and corporate earnings continue to deteriorate despite interest rate cuts? What if it isn’t enough to counteract U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war?

That’s one of the topics guest Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, explores on this week's show. Also joining the podcast is Romaine Bostick, a reporter and anchor on Bloomberg Television, to give his take on the state of play in markets, and what he’s hearing from sources on Wall Street. 

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What is the point of creating synthetic stocks and ETFs to trade on the blockchain with cryptocurrencies? 

Do Kwon, co-founder and CEO of Terraform Labs, explains how mirrored assets like these work, what type of demand they can fill, and potential regulatory pitfalls. Also joining this episode is Kwon’s collaborator Zaki Manian, co-founder of Iqlusion and the Sommelier Protocol. The pair also discuss the effects of crypto scams on the world of decentralized finance, and why a novelty token like Dogecoin became such a big hit.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Fake Tesla, Apple Stocks Have Started Trading on Blockchains

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Matt Levine, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion who writes the Bloomberg newsletter Money Stuff, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss some of the hot finance topics he’s been covering and what he means when he says “everything is securities fraud.”

“I have a genre of stories called ‘everything is securities fraud,’ which is where public companies do random bad things and people sue them for securities fraud,” Levine says. “It’s indicative of this really big, interesting trend in American securities laws where everything gets sort of reflected—all conduct gets reflected—through the notion of securities fraud because it’s easy to bring cases and the damages can be really large. And so you can like litigate, you can fight over, all sorts of political and social issues by calling them securities fraud.”

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The troubles facing highly indebted property developers in China have dominated conversations about the Asian nation’s economy and markets this year. Yet according to Rayliant Global Advisors’ Jason Hsu, there’s an important distinction between this housing crisis and previous ones elsewhere: The developers are the ones who are over-leveraged—not households. And that difference is guiding policymakers’ response.

Hsu, chief investment officer of Rayliant and a co-founder of Research Affiliates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss China and other emerging markets. 

“Chinese households are not levered when it comes to real estate,” he says. “They’re not levered because they can buy their first home with money down—and they pay quite a bit money down—and they generally have to sort of have enough income to cover the payment. That bankruptcy you’re seeing in the developer sector is very engineered. On the household side, there’s not a balance-sheet crisis, because they’re not buying real estate on leverage. So they really don’t think there’s a meaningful problem there.”

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ChatGPT has taken the internet by storm, spurring all manner of experiments and examination as to what extent the artificial-intelligence model can supplant humans and daily tasks. But it’s also being used on Wall Street, where a number of exchange-traded fund issuers, including State Street, have grasped onto the concept to help put together innovative products. 

Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, joined the What Goes Up podcast to talk about using AI in portfolio construction. His firm’s SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF is up roughly 20% this year. 

“The reason why we went down this path of using AI is that we wanted something forward looking—something dynamic—because back in 2018, we understood that, in the ETF world, there weren’t a lot of strategies that were this forward-looking, innovative-type paradigm,” Bartolini said. “The AI process was able to deliver that for us.” 

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Bloomberg’s managing editor for cryptocurrency coverage, Stacy-Marie Ishmael, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the wild year in crypto and what she’ll be watching going into 2022.

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