War on the Rocks (Ryan Evans)

With the last slivers of Syrian territory being wrested from the grasp of the Islamic State, where does the war against this tenacious terrorist organization go next? To understand where we came and where we are heading, we assembled a fantastic cast of experts that co-hosts Usha Sahay and Ryan Evans did their best to wrangle: Rasha al-Aqeedi of FRPI, Ryan Fishel of the U.S. Air Force, Hassan Hassan of the Tahrir Institute, Haroro Ingram of Program on Extremism at GWU, Brett Reichert of the U.S. Army, and Aaron Stein of FPRI.

Our guests in this episode range from people who fought the self-proclaimed Caliphate on the ground and in the air to scholars, think tankers, and analysts.

Continuing our series of conversations about issues at the intersection of defense and capital, Ryan chatted with Raj Shah of Shield Capital last month in San Francisco. From his service in the Air Force flying F-16s to his time as an entrepreneur to the Defense Innovation Unit-Experimental to his current work in venture capital, Shah has been a critical player in trying to maintain and grow the U.S. military's technological advantages.

On this episode, Ryan and Mike discuss the liberation of Kherson, the Russian military's strategy before the start of the winter, and Ukraine's efforts to retain the initiative once the weather improves in the spring. We also offer a sample from Mike's latest members-onlypodcast, the Russia Contingency, which features an in-depth conversation with RUSI senior research fellows, Justin Bronk and Jack Watling, about the Russian air performance during the war.

This week’s Net Assessment podcast featured a deep-dive into the Vice President’s early October speech on the competition with China. Largely drowned out by the Kavanaugh SCOTUS controversy, Melanie, Chris, and Bryan give this important speech due consideration, to include administration views on Taiwan, China’s defense buildup, and its growing global influence.  The crew also discussed foreign aid, the F-35, the deficit, the alleged assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, and the resignation of Nikki Haley. All of this while celebrating Melanie’s birthday.

Vice President’s Speech

• Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration's Policy Toward China
• Ethan Epstein, “How China Infiltrated US Classrooms,” Politico, January 16, 2018.
• Glenn Thrush, “Trump Embraces Foreign Aid to Counter China’s Global Influence,” New York Times, October 14, 2018.
• Jim DeBrosse, “Waiting for the Great Leap Forward,” Cincinnati Magazine, May 4, 2017.
• Alan Rappeport, “In New Slap at China, US Expands Power to Block Foreign Investments,” New York Times, October 10, 2018.
• Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang, “Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order,” New York Times, May 13, 2017.
• Adva Saldinger, "A New US Development Finance Agency Takes Flight," Devex, October 4, 2018
• Glenn Thrush, "Trump Embraces Foreign Aid to Counter China's Global Influence," The New York Times, October 14, 2018

Airing of Grievances

• https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna920191
• https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2018/09/exclusive-f-35-program-facing-another-setback/
• https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/trumps-tax-cut-didnt-reduce-the-deficit--despite-his-many-promises.html

Attaboys

• https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/12/western-walkout-saudi-davos-desert-conference-over-jamal-khashoggi-undermines-kingdoms-modernization-plans/
• https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/trumps-tax-cut-didnt-reduce-the-deficit--despite-his-many-promises.html
• https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/nikki-haley-resignation/index.html

Michael Kofman joins Ryan once again to discuss the Russo-Ukrainian War. In this episode, he discusses the looming battle for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two small cities near each other that are likely Russia's next effort after the fall of Severodonestk. He also revisits the idea of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to retake Kherson and the prospects for when, whether, and how that could unfold. Mike and Ryan also talk about Ukraine's challenges in mobilizing enough trained manpower at the front and keeping a diverse "petting zoo" of equipment from Western backers in the fight. 

America has been at war since the fall of 2001. There is no end in sight in Afghanistan, Mesopotamia and the Levant, and beyond. What political and strategic disincentives have stalled Washington's ability to responsibly end its involvement in these wars under Republican and Democratic administrations? After spraying down our studio with grain alcohol to kill the virus afflicting the world (Everclear is the unofficial sponsor of this episode, as is an excellent northern Italian vineyard called Paltrinieri), we convened a great group to grapple with the forever wars: Paul Miller of Georgetown, Sarah Kreps of Cornell, and Will Ruger of the Charles Koch Institute and Foundation. 

Further reading:

• Paul Miller, Withdrawal Deadlines in War (Atlantic Council, 2020)
• Sarah Kreps, Taxing Wars: The American Way of War Finance and the Decline of Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2018)
• Will Ruger, "With U.S. Strategy on the Rocks, We Are Supporting Fresh Perspectives Fresh Perspectives in Foreign Policy," War on the Rocks
• Paul Miller, "How Does Jihadism End? Choosing Between Forever War and Nation Building," War on the Rocks
• John Kaag and Sarah Kreps, Drone Warfare (Polity, 2014)
• Sarah Kreps, Coalitions of Convenience: United States Military Interventions after the Cold War (Oxford University Press, 2011)

In this episode, two members of Congress from two sides of the aisle came together to deliver a message of consensus on the future of the American military. And they did so on the eve of the most contentious presidential election in living memory. Looking for an escape from the drama? Interested in the revolutionary steps the United States needs to take to maintain its military edge? Listen to this episode with Rep. Jim Banks and Rep. Seth Moulton, who c0-chaired the Future of Defense Task Force. You can read the task force's final report (pdf) as well. 

During a visit to Maxwell Air Force Base, Ryan had a chance to visit with Lt. Gen. Andrea Tullos, the president and commander of Air University. We spoke about her career, how she ended up commanding the lead agent for Air Force education, producing practitioners in the art and science of air-minded warfare, the addition of more wargaming at Air University, and preparing the Air Force for an era of strategic competition. She ends with a call for military personnel to engage in professional and public debate.

The War on the Rocks podcast is back with a big episode and an all-star cast. Hal Brands and Alex Bick of SAIS, Will Inboden of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Kori Schake of the Hoover Institution, Colin Kahl of Georgetown, and Peter Feaver of Duke dish about the U..S. National Security Strategy, a report required by Congress meant to basically lay out how the president views America's role in the world and how he plans to exercise power. And having a bipartisan group of national security leaders around the table, Ryan Evans couldn't resist asking how they all felt the Iran deal was playing out at age two (yes, Ryan misspoke and says it's one year old in the intro - please forgive him).

Ryan spoke with the commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen. Eric Smith, about a range of issues from his forthcoming planning guidance to the future of force design to personnel and safety and beyond.

Vladimir Putin's role as supreme commander has been center stage, offering a floundering and frightful performance. To understand the present, we reach back to the past. In the first of a multi-part series of episodes, Lawrence Freedman and Michael Kofman walk us through the post-Cold War history of the Kremlin and especially Putin as commander, starting with the First Chechen War through the short Russo-Georgian War (2008). In doing so, Freedman draws on his new book, Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine (https://amzn.to/3qYxPEF). 

On the sidelines of the National Space Symposium, we threw a little party and recorded a podcast, because why not? Our special guest was Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb and the main focus of the conversation was the Defense Department's new strategy on space commercial integration.

Ryan popped into Austin to see what the Army Applications Laboratory was getting up to. Its director, Dr. Casey Perley, was kind enough to sit down with Ryan and break it down for him. If you care about military innovation, defense tech, and the future of the Army, this episode is for you.

What is the proper role of retired general and flag officers in American politics? This is a question that has been debated for a long time, but things have heated up since the 2016 elections due to the prominent role of retired generals in that presidential campaign and in the Trump administration. Even more recently, retired Adm. Bill McRaven penned an op-ed that attracted the attention of many, but especially those who study civil-military relations. The premiere scholarly society focused on civil-military relations was in town over the weekend, so Ryan decided to have a few people over to War on the Rocks headquarters to sort through it all. He was joined by Risa Brooks, Peter Feaver, Jim Golby, and Alice Hunt Friend.

On this special edition podcast, listeners will get to hear the first 20 minutes of Unspent Rounds, a members-only War on the Rocks podcast that features interesting conversations with interesting people. On this episode, Aaron Stein spoke with Capt. Adam "AI" Solomon, an airfield operations flight commander. Adam was in charge of airfield operations and oversaw almost all aspects of flight operations during the evacuation from Kabul. The conversation explored the withdrawal, how it all went down, how challenging it was to coordinate flight operations, how Adam dealt with logistical challenges when evacuating people from the country, and the tragic killing of 13 Marines guarding the airport.

To listen to the show in its entirety, and to other episodes of Unspent Rounds, sign up to become a War on the Rocks member.

This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.

Ryan sat down with Dr. Mara Karlin, who serves as assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities. They discussed the making of the new National Defense Strategy, the critical topic of implementation, integrated deterrence, how Russia's fumbles in Ukraine have changed the way the Pentagon thinks about Moscow as an adversary, and a whole lot more.

On the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ryan and Mike Kofman sit down to chat about where the war stands today and where things are heading. It is, to be candid, a pessimistic conversation. They cover the fall of Avdiivka, military leadership changes, Ukraine's mobilization challenges, Congressional dysfunction, European defense spending, and more. 

Mike Kofman joins the show yet again. This time, he explains why the debate over the wisdom of the Battle for Bahkmut is so important while still overshadowing other important debates. As Ukrainian forces are being pressed out of the city of Bahkmut, they preparing to go back on the offensive, which will put Russia on the defense. The critical issue in Mike's view is what happens after the Ukrainian offensive. Listen to understand why.

Do you want to listen to more Mike? Become a member and you get access to his show, the "Russia Contingency."

Recently, two enterprising young scholars spearheaded a major conference that ended up being sponsored and hosted by CSIS and the Kissinger Center at SAIS. The topic was the future of force and it will hopefully be the first in a series under a program called the Future of Strategy Forum that aims to feature women doing important work in national and international security. At the end of this day long event, Usha Sahay and Ryan Evans sat down with the people responsible for making it happen -- Sara Plana, Rachel Tecott, Alex Bick, Alice Friend, and Kath Hicks. We had a fascinating conversation about how this conference came to be, the challenges of gender diversity, and -- of course -- the future of force.

This is not an optimistic episode. Michael Kofman speculates that the war might be in its most dangerous phase. Why is that? Ukraine's casualties and shortages in munitions are beginning to show as Russia is gaining some operational advantages in the Donbass. Further, Russia's efforts to fill its manpower gaps have been partially successful without relying primarily on conscripts and conducting a large mobilization. Ryan and Mike speculate that, in the end, this war will be decided by the country that can endure the longest, in terms of their economies, logistics, materiel, and political will. And Ukraine's endurance is tied up closely with the will of the West to continue backing Ukraine with arms and other supplies in a war that could continue to drag on for months, if not years.

Gen. David H. Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps, had Ryan Evans over for a discussion on the service he leads. As rising great powers and transformative technologies reshape warfare, presenting marines with new challenges, how should the Marine Corps adapt? From talent management to force transformation, listen to their wide-ranging conversation about what the service needs to become in order remain a top-tier fighting force.

You can find a full transcript for this episode, as well as reading and listening here: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/general-berger-on-the-marine-corps-of-the-future

Ryan and Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, chatted about, well, it's in his job title. They discussed North Korean intentions, American military posture, deepening cooperation between South Korea and Japan, Chinese military modernization, corruption in the Chinese military, and deterring an attack on Taiwan.

Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics? They debated what Iraq was like on Oc. 6th, how it has been impacted by the war in Gaza, and where the country will be five years from now.

Nick Danforth sat down with Steven Cook, Joyce Karam, and Faysal Itani to discuss how the war in Gaza will impact Israel’s relations with the Gulf and American interests in the Middle East. Among other topics, they debated the future of the Abraham Accords and what options, if any, exist for governing post-war Gaza.

Ryan sat down at 1789 in Georgetown with Justin Vaïsse, a French historian and director general of the Paris Peace Forum, an independent NGO he started at the urging of French President Emmanuel Macron. Justin recently returned from China where he was traveling with Macron. They discussed Macron's recent remarks about China that were so poorly received in Washington, the work of his organization, and what he learned from the Cold War.

Now that the offensive launched by Ukrainian forces is possibly in the process of petering out,  Mike Kofman shares some of his exploratory thoughts on where Ukraine stands and what 2024 might look like.

About a year after the National Defense Strategy was launched, what progress has been made when it comes to America's edge against its great power rivals? And what role do great power partners, like India, have to play?

Over drinks at the Jefferson Hotel's Quill Bar (our old school recording location, as longtime listeners of the show will remember) Elbridge Colby, Tanvi Madan, Roger Zakheim, and Nina Kollars debate these questions and more.

Devour this deep dive into the dash to drop America's drawn-out duel in the domain of the Durrani (and different dynasties): Afghanistan. To help us understand what's transpired and the meaning of the new deal between the United States and the Taliban, Ryan was joined by Orzala Nemat, Laurel Miller, and Vikram J. Singh -- all of whom have many years of experience with America's longest war.

For members, we have some bonus material (posted in the War Hall): Dr. Nemat tells us what a certain Hamid Karzai has been up to. Want to become a member? Click: https://warontherocks.com/membership/

Further reading and listening:

• Barnett Rubin, "Fighting and Talking with the Taliban During the Obama Years," War on the Rocks
• Laurel Miller, "The Trump Administration’s Afghanistan Policy," Testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs
• Vikram Signh, "Behind The U.S.-Taliban Ceasefire Agreement In Afghanistan," NPR, interview by Ari Shapiro
• Chris Brose, Melanie Marlow, Christopher Preble, "Why is America Leaving Afghanistan Now?" Net Assessment
• John Bew, Ryan Evans, Peter Neumann, and Marisa Porgest, Talking to the Taliban: Hope over History (ICSR: 2013)

On this special preview of the Russia Contingency, Mike sat down with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The conversation touched on the latest news from the Ukrainian offensive, examined lessons learned from observing the conflict and explored the Ukrainian definition of victory in the war. Parts two and three of this conversation are available exclusively on the Russia Contingency. Sign up today.

Three talented scholars join Ryan in this episode to tackle questions about the future of the international order. ​ Conversations about this topic can often be insufferably dry, but this one definitely isn't -- and not just because of the adult beverages being imbibed as the episode unfolded. Join Mira Rapp-Hooper, Rebecca Friedman Lissner, and Stephen Wertheim for a meaty, fascinating, and historically informed jam session on the future of U.S. power and influence. 

TechCrunch Disrupt hosted Ryan and a top-notch panel for a conversation on the increasing importance of commercial stakeholders in the exercise of military power in and from space. It features John Plumb, the first assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Mandy Vaughn, the CEO and founder of GXO, Inc.; and Gen. James H. Dickinson, the commander of U.S. Space Command. Listen to their discussion, which was recorded in September. Thanks to TechCrunch for allowing us to use this recording.

Michael Kofman joins Ryan once again to help us understand the Russo-Ukrainian War as its fourth week unfolds. They cover a lot of ground: Mike updates us on the three fronts — where Russian forces are making progress and where they are not — and how the stalling campaign might drive Moscow to dramatically change its war aims. He also explains why it’s hard to gauge the condition of Ukrainian forces, how Putin’s stated aim of Ukraine’s ‘demilitarization’ is playing out in terms of strikes against Ukraine’s industrial base, and what role Belarusian forces might (but probably won’t) play in the conflict. Mike and Ryan also discuss the effects of sanctions on the Russian military industrial base, detentions of senior Russian security officials, how long Russian military manpower can last, the role of elite infantry units in this campaign, and the chilling repressive apparatus that seems to be taking shape in Russian-occupied portions of Ukraine. Kofman provides a bracing warning: this war can still get worse in terms of the human cost as it transforms into war of attrition.

Nick sat down with Eric Brewer, Dana Stroul, and Gavin Clough to discuss how the conventional, proxy, and nuclear threats Iran poses are evolving. Who was deterred and who wasn't by the latest Iranian and Israeli strikes? What did we learn about Iranian capabilities? And how will this affect Iran's thinking about a bomb?

Will NATO be able to innovate and adapt before a crisis? Adm. Pierre Vandier popped into War on the Rocks HQ for a most interesting chat about this very question. He serves as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. A senior leader in the French navy and career fighter pilot, Vandier is responsible for the transformation of NATO's military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines. With Ukraine struggling against Russia, technology advancing at a thunderous pace, and the geopolitical landscape shifting, Vandier offers some fascinating, quotable insights. 

President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. special operations forces in advance of a Turkish offensive into northeastern Syria continues to roil the region. Gayle Tzemach Lemmon of the Council on Foreign Relations, Nick Danforth of the German Marshall Fund, and Sam Heller of the International Crisis Group join the show to help us understand why this happened, how it affected people on the ground, and what happens next in this long-running civil war. We also preview a WarCast with Aaron Stein of the Foreign Policy Research Institute on the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed caliph of the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

Further reading and listening:

Aaron Stein, "U.S. Officials Ignored Trump on Syria and Now We're All Paying the Price"

Sam Heller, "America In Search of an Un-Geneva for Syria"

Nick Danforth, Doug Ollivant, Elizabeth Saunders, and Ryan Evans, "Mayhem and Misadventures in the Middle East"

Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This two-part podcast covers the rise of the Left in the region as well as its implications for relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing.

As a part of our exploration of national security learning, we had Joan Johnson-Freese of the Naval War College and Mark Conversino of Air University on the show. Tune into this rich and wide-ranging conversation on what's right and wrong with professional military education in the Navy and Air Force. 

Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This the second installment of our two-part podcast. The conversation began with an overview of the role of the military in different Latin American countries, before pivoting to an examination of regional views of great powers. The conversation concluded with a discussion about U.S. policy in the region, and how different governments view the Biden administration.

Mike Kofman joins Ryan once again to update us all on the war in Ukraine. The big thing that everyone is watching for is evidence of an impending Ukrainian counter-offensive. Mike explains that we don't see that yet. He also discusses fighting around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, some events that surprised him, Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea, the expenditure of munitions, and the possibility that Russia might hold referenda in the territories it currently occupies in the east and south of Ukraine. Ryan and Mike also discuss slowing aid from Europe and whether European backers of Ukraine will hold through the winter. The big takeaway, however, is the Russia seems to have lost the momentum at this stage of the war and appears to be waiting to see what Ukraine does next. 

Our friend Michael Kofman popped in for another conversation with Ryan about where things stand in the Russo-Ukrainian War. He gives a wide-ranging assessment of Russia's unfavorable position as it musters an offensive in the Donbass that might be the last one that the Russian military is capable of launching before it is a spent force. From Ukraine's advanced Western kit to holdouts in Mariupol to the naval state of play to Russia's dire manpower shortages, Mike and Ryan discuss it all. Mike also gets into the nitty gritty on Russian infantry manning levels. 

As the world changes, is the nuclear strategy landscape changing or staying remarkably consistent? We had a nice chat about such in lovely Hamburg, courtesy of the Nuclear Studies Research Initiative (NSRI). Don't miss this episode, featuring Fiona Cunningham of George Washington University, Francis Gavin of Johns Hopkins, Ulrich Kühn of the University of Hamburg, and Jane Vaynman of Temple University.

This deep and fascinating conversation is one of a two-part discussion that you can listen to on the Russia Contingency, a members-only podcast hosted by Michael Kofman. Become a member here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

War on the Rocks threw a party for almost 200 people on the sidelines of I/ITSEC, the premier modeling and simulations conference held every year in Orlando. At this party, we had a special guest for a live podcast recording: Lt. Gen. Brian "Smokey" Robinson, the commander of Air Education and Training Command. In a chat with Ryan, he laid out his objectives, the future of education and immersive training for airman, and the centrality of data. Robinson emphasized this is not just about pilots — as pilot training is only 10 percent of what his command does — but all airmen. In forging ahead, he echoed former Assistant Secretary James Geurts, saying "We have to demand curiosity." The two also chatted about his career, why he joined the Air Force, and why squadron command was his favorite job. They also took some questions from the audience on professional military education, the T-7A program, his tentative 2023 pilot training goal, and his favorite superhero.

For a transcript of this episode, visit: https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/cognition-and-curiosity-a-conversation-with-lt-gen-brian-robinson

Michael Kofman dropped into WOTR HQ to chat with Ryan about the war in Ukraine. From Russia's culminated offensive on Kharkiv, to battlefields of the Donbas, to ongoing fighting in the south, to Russia's displaced Black Sea Fleet, Mike parses through the data to try and assess where the war is heading next. 

Fresh back from his research trip to Ukraine, Mike Kofman joins Ryan for a discussion about what he learned. They discuss the battle for Bakhmut, munitions shortages and force structure, artillery and attrition, Russia's unimpressive offensive, and what else the West could be doing to set Ukraine up for success in a widely anticipated spring offensive.

Every summer, the War on the Rocks crew travels to Beaver Creek, Colorado, where the Clements Center hosts its summer seminar -- an intimate gathering for PhD students, senior scholars, former policymakers, and a misanthropic editor and podcast host. In this episode, Alexandra Evans, Jim Goldgeier, Tanvi Madan, Doyle Hodges, and aforementioned misanthrope -- Ryan Evans -- fielded questions on international security from the junior scholars in attendance that they considered oft-ignored or ill-explored.

The armed services are modernizing across the board, perhaps most importantly in the closely related areas of talent development, education, and data. Maj. Gen. Andrea Tullos of the U.S. Air Force, Brig. Gen. Charles Lombardo of the U.S. Army, and former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Al Schaffer joined Ryan to discuss how these changes might unfold.

Special thanks to iFest and Sae Schatz for making this event possible.

How has our understanding of Russian influence operations evolved since the 2016 election? Just a few days before Trump was elected president, Clint Watts, Andrew Weisburd, and J.M. Berger sounded the alarm in a War on the Rocks article about the Kremlin's efforts to undermine American democracy. Since then, the world has learned a lot more about how Russia influenced the election and, more generally, the continued dangers of influence campaigns and information warfare. Clint's new book, Messing With the Enemy: Surviving in a Social Media World of Hackers, Terrorists, Russians, and Fake News, is an effort to help us think through these issues. He recently spoke with Usha about his efforts to track and understand Russian social media trolling, what studying jihadi terrorists taught him about online propaganda, and what the government, tech companies, and the public can do to deal with this difficult problem.

Read the November 2016 War on the Rocks article here: https://warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolling-for-trump-how-russia-is-trying-to-destroy-our-democracy/

Order Clint's book here: https://amzn.to/2I4NKbt

Image: powtac/Flickr

In this episode of the War on the Rocks podcast, Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review, sits down with Jessica Brandt, head of policy and research for the Alliance for Securing Democracy, and Camille Francois, chief innovation officer at Graphika, to discuss disinformation.

Disinformation has been prominent in the minds of many Americans since the 2016 election. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence released a report on April 21 confirming Russian interference in both the 2016 and 2018 elections, in part through the use of disinformation campaigns. With the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen a new growth in disinformation campaigns and a new set of challenges.

Mike Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the state of play in Ukraine. From south to north, they review the situation at the front, with special attention to Ukraine's offensive operation into Russian territory, to include its political implications. They talk about manpower and fortifications and explore how much F-16s might change the skies over Ukraine.

This episode was sponsored by Onebrief. Learn more about how they are transforming military planning: onebrief.com

Nick sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss where the Russo-Ukrainian conflict stands at the start of 2024. They talked through the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea and Russia’s cynical diplomacy, as well as Moscow’s growing munitions advantage and what went wrong with the Ukrainian offensive.

Don't forget to listen to "All Quiet on the Second Front," an amazing new show that supported this episode to receive a promo code for a limited number of free War on the Rocks memberships.

As the world grapples again with the dangers of nuclear weapons use, Aaron sat down with Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Heather Williams, the director of the project on nuclear issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss new nuclear dynamics, the meaning of deterrence, and debate about the future of U.S. nuclear weapons strategy.

PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

Maj. Gen. Frank Donovan of the U.S. Marine Corps sat down with Ryan to discuss the recent mission and exercises of Task Force 61/2, from Greece and Turkey to the Baltic Sea. Aside from playing an important role during a delicate moment in European security affairs, this task force was kicking the tires on Force Design 2030, the future vision for the Marine Corps, which we've previously discussed with the commandant, Gen. David Berger.

Join us for another discussion with Michael Kofman on the war in Ukraine. The main focus of this episode is the southern counter-offensive launched by Ukrainian forces early this week. Mike explains what has happened so far in this operation, centered around Kherson, and how observers should think about it as it unfolds. The two also discuss what Ukrainian combined arms warfare looks like, manpower challenges on both sides, the airpower picture, and how the counter-offensive is affecting the war in different parts of the country. Also, what is happening in Belarus as far as this war is concerned? And is either side prepared for how long this war is likely to last?

Michael Kofman joins Ryan for their first discussion of the new year on the war in Ukraine. They cover the state of play at the various fronts, manpower and materiel, the Russian strike campaign, and more. 

This episode comes to you from Ramstein Air Base, where Ryan spoke with Gen. James Hecker of the U.S. Air Force and Air Marshall Johnny Stringer of the Royal Air Force about what we can learn from airpower and spacepower almost a year and a half into the war in Ukraine.

The U.S. Army, from the chief of staff on down, is putting its weight behind getting soldiers to take writing and publishing more seriously as an important part of the profession of arms. From the Harding Project to the revitalization of branch journals to the Line of Departure website (coming this fall) to a special forthcoming issue of Military Review on the topic, there is a lot of energy, action, and momentum behind this. Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to talk about why professional writing is so important for the writing and the solider. We hope you enjoy this conversation with Sgt. 1st Class Leyton Summerlin, Maj. Emily Lopez, and Lt. Col. Zachary Griffiths. The views they express do not represent those of the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, or any part of the U.S. government.

Russia's stumbling war was launched almost three months ago. As Russian and Ukrainian forces battle on, how should we understand the state of play? Michael Kofman joins Ryan again to discuss the war on the ground, in the air, and at sea; Ukraine's ability to get Western weaponry into the fight; the crushing economic realities on both sides; how Vladimir Putin's Victory Day speech was the dog that didn't bark; Russia's stark mobilization constraints; and why a sliver of an island named after a snake has played such a prominent role in the conflict. Ryan puts an important question to Michael as Russia faces the real possibility of defeat: Under what circumstance would Putin use nuclear weapons?

Ryan recently traveled to Air University at Maxwell Air Force Base where he was joined by three of the many big thinkers teaching servicemembers down there: Andy Akins, Anna Batta, and Mark Conversino. They covered the risk of nuclear war over Ukraine, the prospects for negotiations, why so many struggle with strategic empathy, and efforts to learn lessons from this war, which often stumble when we fail to learn lessons about ourselves.

Michael Kofman joined Ryan once more to update us all on the war in Ukraine. In this episode, Kofman explains how and why Russia is refocusing on the east of Ukraine, what the war in Syria revealed about shortcomings in Russian air force, and what Ukrainian forces need in terms of weaponry and supply to win this war. The two also discuss Russian war crimes and their relation to the Russian military’s internal culture of violence and hazing as well as Vladimir Putin’s framing of this war of “de-nazification.” The conversation ended with Kofman explaining Moscow’s big military manpower decision, which you may have missed, and how it connects to Putin’s difficult strategic position.

In this episode, we get into what's driving the Indo-Pacific's security dynamics, from China's threats to Taiwan to AUKUS and the Quad to stability (or lack thereof) on the Korean Peninsula to bases in the Philippines. We also touch on how prepared the United States may be to deliver military power in the Indo-Pacific based on forthcoming resourcing decisions by the Trump administration and Congress. Get ready for a smart, insightful conversation you won't want to miss with Lisa Curtis (CNAS), Zack Cooper (AEI), and Dmitri Alperovitch (Silverado). Cooper has a great new book out called Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries (https://a.co/d/cP4OPgU). And so does Alperovitch, who wrote World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (https://a.co/d/eUDRdlF) with Garrett M. Graff. 

Ryan sat down with Mike to discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia’s effort to seize the initiative before winter begins, Moscow’s turn to North Korea for artillery shells, the challenges the Ukrainian military may face next year, the Biden administration’s failure to provide certain weapons to Ukraine quickly, and the state of the Russian military. Mike and Ryan close with a conversation about the need to be forward-looking about the conflict, given that the Russian defense industry has increased its rate of production, which will require the United States, its European allies, and Ukraine to plan for continued combat in the future.

Ryan and Mike Kofman discuss the state of the war before turning to various other issues including important tactical adaptations since the start of summer, why Washington's theory of its involvement in this war is fundamentally "unworkable" due to a lack of military observers in country, the various meanings of "stalemate," and the big picture for next year.

Nothing about the war in Ukraine is simple — including the diplomacy, which might be even messier than the battlefield. Michael Kofman, Justin Logan (Cato), and Liana Fix (the Council on Foreign Relations) joined Ryan to help him understand the negotiations underway about Ukraine's fate. From the minerals deal to Zelensky's approach to Trump to the prospects for a European peacekeeping force, they cover it all, and have a few friendly arguments along the way.

On this episode, Ryan sat down with Schuyler Moore, the chief technology officer for U.S. Central Command, to discuss how it is planning to fight and win the next war with new and exciting technology.

If you read War on the Rocks, you've noticed there's a lively debate over the state of wargaming in the Department of Defense. After senior leaders pushed for a renewed emphasis on wargaming several years ago, are these games any good? Are they doing what they need to be doing for the U.S. military? If not, who is at fault — the gaming community or the customers sitting in the five-sided building? To tackle these questions and more, we gathered a gifted group of gamesome and gallant gamers. Join Ryan's conversation with Ellie Bartels, ED McGrady, and Peter Perla.

Links

Jon Compton, "The Obstacles on the Road to Better Analytical Wargaming"

Phillip Pournelle, "Can the Cycle of Research Save American Military Strategy?"

Peter Perla, Web Ewell, Christopher Ma, Justin Peachy, Jeremy Sepinksy, and Basil Tripsas, "Rolling the Iron Dice: From Analytical Wargaming to the Cycle of Research"

ED McGrady, "Getting the Story Right About Wargaming"

Elizabeth Bartels, "Getting the Most Out of Your Wargame: Practical Advice for Decision-Makers"

Robert Work and Paul Selva, "Revitalizing Wargaming is Necessary to be Prepared for Future Wars"

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine. 

“Only kings, presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial ‘we.’” This line, often attributed to Mark Twain (it wasn’t him) speaks to the thorny feelings that writers associate with those who shape their prose. Now that the War on the Rocks editorial team has grown so much, we thought this was a good opportunity for you to get to know our Washington-based editors a bit better: Doyle Hodges, Shane Mason, and Rebecca Zimmerman. This team combines career experience in the U.S. Navy, various think tanks, in the fields and headquarters of Afghanistan, to low-budget music tour vans. If you’re interested in their career trajectories, mentors who made a difference, how to be a civilian in a military dominated environment (or vice versa), the books and plays they love, hard-earned professional lessons, or just better knowing the people who wield the red pen, you’ll enjoy this one.

Lawrence Freedman and Michael Kofman walk us through the post-Cold War history of the Kremlin as commander. In the second episode of this multi-part series, they focus on Russia's intervention in the Syrian Civil War and its first assault on Ukraine in the aftermath of Euromaidan. In Syria in particular, Moscow thinks it makes major progress on command and high-tech targeting, but that later proves to be something of a mirage. The Western intervention in Libya is also an important part of this period, informing how Vladimir Putin views threats to his own power and influence. Ukraine soon reveals itself to be an unresolved issue for Moscow. Don't miss the first part of this discussion, which focuses on the First and Second Chechen Wars as well as the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In these episodes, Freedman draws on his new book, Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine.

Michael Kofman sat down with Ryan again to sort through how the war in Ukraine is proceeding, with a focus on the Donbass, where Ukraine and Russia are concentrating their forces. Beyond the battlefields, Kofman ponders the future of the Russian armed forces and reports what he learned at a recent conference in Poland.

Ryan was happy to welcome back Lt. Gen. Brian Robinson and Lt. Gen. Andrea Tullos onto the show. These Air Force leaders lead Air Education and Training Command and Air University, respectively, the latter of which is a major component of the former. As such, they work together all the time (and aren't dueling, but fun title right?). In this episode, they speak to Ryan about what they and their teams are doing to ensure the U.S. Air Force is trained at the highest level possible in order to ensure readiness.

Robinson was on the show last year about related topics. And this is Tullos' third appearance on the show, and she has also appeared on Unspent Rounds.

Can two great power publications peacefully co-exist? Or are they fated to clash? And what if you throw nuclear weapons into the mix? Gideon Rose and Ryan Evans, the benevolent editorial autocrats of Foreign Affairs and War on the Rocks seek to answer these questions and more. They dive deep into a new special issue of Foreign Affairs: “Do Nuclear Weapons Matter?” The issue features a diverse range of thinkers on nuke – some of whom have also written for WOTR – including Elbridge Colby, John Mueller, Olga Oliker, Scott Sagan, Caitlin Talmadge, and Nina Tannenwald. Gideon and Ryan also dish about editing, dealing with different kinds of authors, and whether wordsmithing drives them to drink. After this display of inter-publication generosity, Ryan demands the unconditional surrender of Foreign Affairs.

Mike Kofman joined Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges faced by both Ukraine and Russia this year. They discuss losses on both sides, manpower challenges, the importance of following the discourse in Ukraine, the Russian economy, and whether the Russian pace of operations will clearly slow down. This episode is brought to you by Bedrock Knowledge.

Ryan and Mike finally found themselves in the same locale after heavy travel and sat down for a in-depth conversation on Ukraine's offensive, how we got here, and what might be coming next.

Gen. Michael Claesson, Chief of Defense of the Swedish Armed Forces, joined Ryan during a visit to Washington to share how NATO has changed Sweden's armed forces as well as the details of their modernization, consolidation, and expansion efforts — on land, at sea, and in the air. They also discuss the challenges of mobilization in future wars defined by higher technology systems, training, working with industry, and how Sweden has learned from Russia's war against Ukraine. Claesson ends with his views on how he tries to shape Sweden's next generation of most senior military officers. 

Weeks before Donald Trump took office, Ryan convened a group of professionals from in and around the intelligence community to talk about the incoming president's approach to intel ("He's Just Not That Into You: Trump, Intel, and the American Presidency"). In today's episode, Ryan brought the same group of people together (minus one). Tune in to hear Carmen Medina, Mark Stout, and Mark Zaid chat (over drinks, of course) about how the president has done so far. 

In front of a live audience and with red wine in hand, the War on the Rocks podcast closed out an important conference on civil-military affairs hosted by the Strategic Studies shop over at the School of Advanced International Studies. The guests of this awesome episode include Mara Karlin, Paula Thornhill, Loren DoJonge Shulman, and Nora Bensahel.

Further Reading and Watching:

Watch the conference

Paula Thornhill, Demystifying the American Military: Institutions Evolution and Challenges Since 1789 (Naval Institute Press, 2019)

David Barno and Nora Bensahel, Adaptation under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime (Oxford University Press, 2020)

Have you heard of the 'For Country' caucus? In a political moment defined by acrimony above all else, this caucus brings together members of Congress who have served in the military — Democrats and Republicans. They meet regularly and work together on interests of common concern, including defense, but also beyond. And shortly after the president was impeached, on a week that might be the peak of partisan peevishness, four members of the caucus — Representatives Don Bacon (R-NE), Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA), Jimmy Panetta (D-CA), and Michael Waltz (R-FL) — sat down with Ryan to explain why they are still friends and what unites them.

History podcasting mastermind Mike Duncan joined Ryan for a few drinks in Washington for our latest episode. Rome is what brought them together — more specifically his New York Times best-selling book, The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic. The book tells the story of Rome from 146 to 78 BC. In this wide-ranging conversation, they cover the challenges of writing ancient vs. modern history, going from fishmongering to podcasting (and making a living at it!), his show Revolutions, and why those of us living at this particular time in history should be eager to understand what happened to the Roman Republic. 

Should the tragedy of war with China occur, the Air Force will play a critical role in ensuring America is able to meet the challenges of conflict in the vast stretches of the Indo-Pacific. Gen. David W. Allvin, the 23rd chief of staff of the Air Force, joined the show to talk with Ryan about his priorities and how he is directing the Air Force to meet America's evolving national security needs by following through on the work of his predecessors. Listen to learn more about how Gen. Allvin views the future of training, logistics and refueling in contested airspace, the lessons from Ukraine, why he admires George C. Marshall, and more.

In our latest episode, Usha Sahay and Ryan Evans were joined by Thomas Rid, Michael Sulmeyer, and a mystery guest (ok, ok, it's Corinna Fehst) to talk about cyber-security, election meddling, reports about U.S. intel agencies buying back pilfered hacking tools, going dark, legislatures as the vulnerable soft cyber underbelly of democracies, and the different threats posed by Russia and China.  

Also, "Password1" is not a good password according to our guests. So you should probably change that. 

Bad ideas. How much trouble do they cause in national security? How do they disrupt or hinder the protection and advancement of American interests? Where do they come from? How do they gain traction? Our friends at the Center for Strategic and International Studies decided to delve more deeply into these questions and more with their project, “Bad Ideas in National Security.” It features short articles from various thinkers on recently considered and not too obvious bad ideas in the defense and foreign policy space. In this episode of the War on the Rocks podcast, we dig into a selection of them with a stellar panel of experts. Also, Zack Cooper and I continue our self-indulgent feud on the great wargame controversy of 2016, and if you don’t know what I’m talking about, listen to our last episode.

You can read all the articles in the “Bad Ideas” series at the CSIS website.

Does the future of warfare demand the U.S. military change its standards for everything from fitness to personal appearance? This question opened up a major debate in the electronic pages of War on the Rocks. So Ryan Evans invited the participants in that debate -- Jacqueline Schneider, Mark Cancian, and Crispin Burke -- to join him on the show and work out everything from why military standards exist to what the wars of the future will look like, along with the warriors who fight them.

Ryan sat down with Mike Kofman at WOTR HQ in Washington, DC to talk about Ukraine's coming offensive; the manpower, materiel, and politics behind it; and lingering questions about Team Biden's theory of success.

Are you a War on the Rocks member yet? If not, why not? Check it out at warontherocks.com/membership

Ryan was joined by Melissa Griffith (SAIS-Johns Hopkins), Anne Marie Schumann (Department of the Navy), Alexis Bonnell (Air Force Research Laboratory), and Tyler Sweatt (Second Front) for a free-wheeling, candid, and thoughtful conversation on the challenges of cyber security in the Defense Department. You won't want to miss this. Please keep in mind that the views expressed by Schumann and Bonnell are their own and do not represent those of their organizations, the Department of the Navy, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.

Ryan caught a flight with Gen. David Goldfein, the chief of the Air Force, who broke down how his service is preparing for a new era of great power competition. What is the Air Force of today doing to get ready? What will the Air Force of the future look like? With support from two bright Air Force officers studying at Maxwell Air Force Base -Lynn Haack and Stephen Bressett- he puts some meat on the bones of "multi-domain operations," where the U.S. military is ending up on Space Force, and how military power can enable and reinforce diplomacy. The chief closes with some kind words about War on the Rocks and the importance of public engagement by Air Force personnel. 

The Marine general and deputy commandant in charge of installations and logistics was kind enough to join Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on military service, logistics, and so much more. Whether you are a servicemember or someone interested in how the U.S. military will be able to stay in the fight should a war break out in the Indo-Pacific, this episode is a must-listen.

This episode was supported by Onebrief. 

Nick sat down in Tokyo last week with Satoru Mori and Yasuhiro Izumikawa to discuss the evolution of Japan’s threat perceptions and defense planning. They also shared their thoughts on how Japan views the challenge posed by China, a potential Taiwan scenario, and the current conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.

A Most Terrible Weapon is a podcast about the dawn of the nuclear age, hosted by Usha Sahay and produced by War on the Rocks, with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. And Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. In each episode, Usha takes listeners on a journey into the early years of the Cold War, telling stories about the dilemmas nuclear weapons posed for American and Soviet leaders, and introducing a fascinating cast of characters who were all trying to prevent Armageddon in different ways. Along the way, Usha interviews scholars and other nuclear experts to help make sense of the many atomic mysteries that have yet to be solved.

How do you plan for the most destructive war the world has never seen before? After the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, American leaders had to figure out how - or whether - nuclear weapons would be used in the wars of the future. In the pilot episode of A Most Terrible Weapon, Usha looks at the very first nuclear war plans, the debates inside the Truman administration about whether the bomb could ever be used again, and a terrifying new development - the arrival of the hydrogen bomb. 

Featuring: Dr. Lynn Eden, Dr. Marc Trachtenberg, Dr. Alex Wellerstein

Ryan dropped in on Michael P. Dempsey late last week in New York City. He is a career intelligence official who served as the acting director of national intelligence. From 2014-2017, he served as the deputy director of national intelligence and President Barack Obama’s primary intelligence briefer. After decades of work in the intelligence community, Dempsey is taking a year out of government at the Council on Foreign Relations. And for the first time in years, he is allowed to speak his mind freely (for the most part) about all sorts of things. Naturally, we had to have him on the War on the Rocks podcast. In this episode, Dempsey starts with the story of his career, from his work as a Latin America analyst all the way up to finalizing the President's Daily Brief and, yes, briefing it to the president of the United States. He also walks us through how to understand negotiations in North Korea as well as the ever-worsening civil war in Syria. 

Undersecretary of the Army James E. McPherson chats with Ryan about how the Army is coping with COVID-19 — starting with the recruitment pipeline — and the challenges of modernization. He also tells us about his military journey: Jim started as a young man in the Army then later joined the Navy, and he retired as judge advocate general of that service. In the last few years, he was called back into public service as a civilian as Army general counsel. In March he was confirmed as and promoted to undersecretary of the Army. He then served briefly as acting secretary of the Navy. Listen to this episode and learn, among other things, why he thought a request to speak to Secretary of Defense James Mattis was a prank and why his first CO in the Navy (a certain John Allen Williams) left a plant in his bed. 

Half a century later, the Vietnam War continues to shape U.S. foreign policy, from its debates over foreign intervention to the institutions of its military. Why does the war remain such a poignant influence, and what lessons have policymakers, scholars, and the public learned (or failed to learn) from America's disastrous campaign in Southeast Asia? WOTR Managing Editor Usha Sahay had the chance to discuss the legacy of Vietnam with an all-star cast in Austin, Texas.

On a foggy morning in August 1918, Allied forces commenced the Battle of Amiens and the Hundred Days Offensive that ended the Great War. A German general later called it "the black day of the German Army." The Russian military has had a black week ever since Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv Oblast. Whether this heralds the last phase of this war is still unknown. Regardless, recent events have been a massive setback for Russia. We had Mike Kofman on the show to discuss.

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly. 

Nick Danforth sat down with Moldovan Ambassador to the United States Viorel Ursu last week to discuss democracy, energy and Russian hybrid warfare, not to mention Black Sea security and the post-conflict politics of wine exports.

Last year, Rajmund Andrzejczak retired as Poland's chief of the general staff, but he has been busy since. During a recent visit to Washington, he spoke with Ryan about his career, European security, Polish defense,  manpower, Ukraine, and what he's been up to, including his podcast "Ground Zero."