War & Peace (International Crisis Group)

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The Black Lives Matter protests that engulfed the U.S. last year sparked similar anti-racism demonstrations in London, Paris, Brussels and several other cities across Europe. The challenge now is how to channel this newfound momentum into meaningful conversations and concrete changes, both nationally and regionally. 

Dr Liliane Umubyeyi, research coordinator at Avocats Sans Frontières, and Dr Amah Edoh, Assistant Professor of Anthropology and African Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tell Olga and Hugh about a global conference they recently co-organised that brought together scholars, activists and policymakers from Africa, Europe and North America to explore how to do just this. 

They discuss why these grievances came to the fore amid a pandemic, the need for transnational spaces that allow for the continued exchange of ideas and best practices, the way some states use “colonial amnesia” as a political strategy, the intersections between race, gender and class and the challenges that arise from pursuing redress through the judicial apparatus. 

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2020 marks two decades since the formal integration of gender into the UN’s mandate of conflict prevention and resolution. According to Aleksandra Dier, Gender Coordinator at the UN Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), the inclusion of gender-sensitive analysis has lagged far behind in the global effort to understand and fight terrorism. 

She joins Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope for a wide-ranging conversation on the value of gender as a cross-cutting lens in the counter-terrorism field, touching on how extremist groups across the ideological spectrum exploit gender dynamics and norms in their recruitment strategies, the gendered impact of counter-terrorism measures and how well legislation at the national level is keeping up with these insights. 

For more information, see the UN Analytical Brief on the prosecution of ISIL-linked women at https://www.un.org/sc/ctc/ and explore Crisis Group’s Gender & Conflict page.

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Russia’s relationship with the European Union has been mired in tension and mistrust since Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014. But while relations at a political level are strained, in Russian society there is an appetite for more engagement. 

Sabine Fischer is Team Leader for the Public Diplomacy EU and Russia Project, which seeks to build engagement between the EU and Russian civil society on bilateral and global issues and to strengthen mutual understanding where possible. She talks to Olga and Hugh about the project, Western perceptions of Russian foreign policy, how the new European Commission should engage Russia, and how the West can balance its rejection of the Crimea annexation with its broader policies toward Russia.

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2019 was a good year for Russia. The country rejoined the Council of Europe, the first case of sanctions being lightened since its 2014 annexation of Crimea. It confirmed the country’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement. It welcomed close to fifty African leaders to the inaugural Russia-Africa summit in Sochi. Moscow even made progress with Kyiv, although less as a result of Russian diplomacy than the efforts of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.

Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, joined Olga and Hugh to reflect on 2019 and discuss what 2020 might bring. They weigh in on everything from Syrian reconstruction to arms control to who President Putin might want to win the U.S. presidential election.

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Ankara’s assertive foreign policy choices delight many at home. But they can puzzle and anger its counterparts as Turkey experiments with increasingly militarised postures in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the South Caucasus, and the ongoing wars in Libya and Syria.

Ambassador Selim Yenel, Turkish ambassador to the EU until 2017 and now president of the Istanbul-based think-tank Global Relations Forum, joins Olga and Hugh to help make sense of what is driving Ankara in a changing world. Together they dive into the making of regional power, the costs of undercutting dialogue with hard-power moves, the imperative of undergoing reforms at home, and what can be done to revive Turkey’s EU accession process. 

Arguing that Turkey’s recent shifts have been more reactive than proactive, Ambassador Yenel urges all sides to cool down rhetoric and calls for a return to more empathetic diplomacy. Even if NATO member Ankara has made mistakes – for instance in the purchase of S-400 ground-to-air missiles from Russia – he says others have too, and thus Turkey deserves to be met halfway.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s Turkey page and visit the Global Relations Forum website.

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“Populism attaches itself to whatever issue provokes fear and outrage [and] hate speech leads to hate crime”. 

Heather Grabbe joins Olga and Hugh on this week’s episode to discuss how populism works, why its appeal has grown in recent years and the threat it poses to European democracy. From its ideological adaptability and the role of digital media in amplifying its message to its role in fuelling deadly conflict, they examine what can be done to address the grievances that these parties feed off. 

With special thanks to our producer, Bulle Media.

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The European Union has mobilized huge financial, political and security resources to stabilize the Balkans, often serving the flagship policy of offering EU membership to qualifying countries. The wars of the 1990s and the economic hardships that followed have been largely overcome, but enlargement has stalled and the region’s uncertainties continue. The logic of EU enlargement is in even greater trouble further east in Turkey. Here media freedoms have shrunk, relations have strained over Turkey’s incursion into north-east Syria and the two sides are struggling to find a common policy on helping almost four million Syrian refugees in the country. 

Angelina Eichhorst, Deputy Managing Director for Europe and Central Asia / Director of Western Europe, Western Balkans, and Turkey at the European External Action Service, joins Hugh and Olga this week to discuss how the EU and its eastern neighbors can navigate periods of more strained relations and why continued engagement and dialogue is crucial for long-term stability and prosperity. 

“We must shape our interests together, not by sitting at different tables”. 

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The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh is the longest-running conflict that accompanied the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. War over the territory broke out in 1992 between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. While a ceasefire in 1994 ended the fighting, decades of negotiations have failed to resolve the conflict. 

Our guest this week is Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s Analyst for Europe’s Eastern Neighbourhood. She explains that grievances and tensions had existed long before the conflict erupted, and that recent calm only papers over years of stalemate that have entrenched positions and isolated Armenians and Azerbaijanis from one another.

But could there be a way out of the current deadlock? Have a listen to find out. 

For more information on this conflict, see our recent report: Digging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh and our Visual Explainer, which maps developments since 2015. 

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What will it take to end the war in Ukraine? 

A plan for what happens inside Ukraine is a prerequisite for peace in the six-year civil war. But that will not suffice if the conflict’s broader geostrategic underpinnings are not addressed, explains Olga, our host-turned-guest for this week’s episode. Russia’s intervention on its neighbour’s territory was largely driven by fears of Western encroachment in its sphere of influence. For NATO and EU member states, these actions pose a deep threat to European stability and security. 

Olga and Hugh discuss what can be done to break the impasse and move toward a durable peace. Broader security concerns in both Europe and Russia must be taken into account. “You can’t fix Ukraine without fixing the rest of the problem”. 

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Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia to become de facto independent, political inertia continues to stall the largely European-driven dialogue process aimed at reaching an understanding between the two parties and thus securing lasting stability for the region. On the back of our recently published report, “Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue”, Crisis Group’s Balkans expert Marko Prelec joins Olga and Hugh to examine why that is. 

Taking a step back from the state of talks today, Marko lays out the historical context for the current impasse, and what the obstacles have been to changing the uneasy status quo. Beyond leaving the door wide open for the dispute to escalate, Kosovo’s unresolved status has tainted domestic political discourse and continues to bar both it and Serbia from accessing the European Union and otherwise participating in the international community.

Failure to breathe new life into talks also comes at a human cost, he explains, having met people on both sides whose lives are curtailed by mutual non-recognition. Does the new year bear any signs that Pristina and Belgrade are willing to make the compromises necessary to resolve their dispute?

Tune in to find out!

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To conclude our first season, Olga and Hugh talk energy security with Alissa de Carbonnel, Crisis Group’s Deputy Program Director for Europe and Central Asia. They assess who is dependent on who in the Russia-Europe relationship, the impact of energy on conflicts, what an increasingly assertive U.S. policy will achieve, and how energy prices in a COVID-19 era could affect Russia.

We’ll be back in September with a brand new season. Until then, stay safe!

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Hugh and Olga are joined this week by Oleg Shakirov, Senior Expert at the Center for Advanced Governance and Consultant at the Moscow-based PIR Center, for a discussion on how Russian foreign policy and diplomacy have evolved in the 21st century. 

Oleg describes Russia’s launch into the digital age over a decade ago, and the ways it has since harnessed these new platforms to project its desired self-image into the public sphere. By asserting its place in the virtual realms of real-time politics and competing narratives on disinformation, Russia has joined its Western counterparts in transforming the status quo of international relations. 

Has Moscow managed to tilt the balance of power in its favour?

Tune in to find out!

For more information on Oleg’s research into Russian humanitarian aid during the COVID-19 pandemic: https://cpur.ru/russian-anti-covid-aid-2020-map/ 

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Indonesia was the first country to proclaim its independence after the Second World War, setting in motion a significant chapter of post-colonial history by doing so. In his latest book, Revolusi, Belgian cultural historian and prolific author David van Reybrouck examines the Dutch East Indies’ past and places it in a global context. A five-year project spanning over 200 interviews with living eyewitnesses, he tells Olga and Hugh why he undertook it, and how (spoiler alert: even the dating app Tinder helped him out).

In both his new book and his previous volume on Belgian colonial history, Congo: The Epic History of a People, David says his hybrid read-and-interview research technique allows him to challenge political myopia in former colonising countries and set the stage for a fuller reckoning of the way Europe has hidden the darkest pages of its colonial history.

They also discuss what David calls a new kind of evangelisation, in the form of exporting the Western model of elections-based democracy, and his case for a lottery-based system. Drawing on his book Against Elections and innovations already taking place in Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands, he explains what makes elections another way of empowering elites, why exporting the Western version of the ballot box elsewhere is wrong, and how an alternative model that returns policymaking to citizens might be a solution.  

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Nuclear weapons sometimes sound like a throwback to another era, but they don’t just remain on stand-by. Nuclear-armed nations are investing heavily in creating more sophisticated and diverse nuclear arsenals. 

After the end of the Cold War, NATO, like the U.S. and Russia, significantly reduced its reliance on nuclear weapons and nuclear policy took a back seat. Then came the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Since then, there has been a renewed interest in nuclear capabilities and a focus on the alliance’s nuclear policies to make sure that NATO forces are a deterrent to Russia. 

Jessica Cox, Director of Nuclear Policy at NATO, explains to Olga and Hugh why nuclear weapons still matter to the alliance and to what extent nuclear powers like Russia pose a threat to NATO allies. They also talk about the latest nuclear technology, the alliance’s deterrence capability, and why NATO does not support the nuclear ban treaty that entered into force in January. 

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As decades-old wars continue to escalate and new crises threaten peace and security around the world, European leadership is urgently needed to prevent and mitigate deadly conflict. 

Crisis Group’s EU experts Giuseppe Famà and Lisa Musiol join Olga and Hugh in the studio this week to discuss the crises where Josep Borrell, the EU’s recently appointed Vice President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, can help the EU and its member states rise to the challenge.

For more see Crisis Group’s recent briefing and upcoming EU Watch List 2020.

With special thanks to our producer, BulleMedia. Also available on the Europod production network.

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After two decades of conflict in Afghanistan, many hoped that a peace deal between the U.S. and the Taliban, signed on 29 February 2020, would mark the beginning of a peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Instead, the peace process has stalled as the two sides struggle to agree on issues necessary to begin the negotiations. The Taliban has since steadily escalated violence against Afghan security forces, while the U.S. has resumed airstrikes.

In addition to the uptick in violence, Afghanistan’s minister of public health has warned that up to 25 million Afghans could eventually be infected with COVID-19, out of a population of about 36 million. Even with very limited testing, numbers continue to rise. At the same time, the public health crisis may pale compared to severe food insecurity, a shrinking economy, and yet more people who are unable to make money to put food on the table.

Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Afghanistan Andrew Watkins talks with Olga and Hugh about sentiment among Afghans suffering under these overlapping crises, which states could serve as neutral negotiators for the peace process, the role of the EU and its member states in Afghanistan’s future and what could happen if the U.S. withdraws its troops without an intra-Afghan peace deal.

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Venezuela’s multifaceted crisis has no solution in sight: from the massive migration problem – the number of Venezuelan refugees surpasses the Syrian crisis this year – to widespread hunger, the need for a regime transition and a shortage of vaccines against COVID-19. What can the European Union (EU) do to push for a sustainable future in Venezuela?

In a special episode prepared in collaboration with the Open Society European Policy Institute, Olga and guest co-host Mariano de Alba talk to Venezuelan activist Roberto Patiño about the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and Roberto’s social initiatives, which feed thousands of children daily and provide hot meals during the pandemic to health workers. They discuss what a possible transition would look like in Venezuela and the importance of negotiation. They also talk about what role the EU could play to this end and the recent agreement between the World Food Programme  – funded by the EU and U.S. – and Maduro’s regime. Roberto says Europe should take more political risks with respect to Venezuela and lead the multilateral game in Caracas.  

For more information: 

• Read the report, Comunidad Venezuela: Una agenda de investigación y acción local
• Explore Crisis Group’s Venezuela page. 

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In 2004, the UN Security Council recognised that the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their means of delivery constitutes a threat to international peace and security. While common discourse has generally normalised the existence and purpose of nuclear weapons, a growing movement within international relations is calling for a world without them. Is a new normal under construction?

María Antonieta Jáquez, counsellor at the permanent mission of Mexico to the UN and member of the Mexican foreign service since 1994, tells Olga and Hugh that this is already the norm for most of the world. In fact, the shift against nuclear proliferation gained traction as early as the 1960s, underpinned by principles of international humanitarian law and embodied in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While 116 countries have signed such treaties since then, the question remains: have nuclear weapons really deterred wars? Jáquez makes the case for global disarmament and shares what inspires her diplomatic efforts to bring about a new reality in a field often too preoccupied with theories of deterrence and power projection.

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Successive waves of Muslim-origin migrants have fled Russia since the 1990s. While some simply sought a better life, hundreds of thousands left due to conflict or persecution. Jean-François Ratelle, professor at the University of Ottawa, joins Olga and Hugh for an in-depth look at the resulting diaspora across Western Europe, Ukraine and Turkey.

Together they unpack Crisis Group’s latest findings, from the various obstacles migrants face in transit and their increasingly cold reception in host countries to the way gender norms have evolved once settled. Jean-François explains that by oversimplifying the needs and experiences of such a diverse group, government policy has tended to alienate rather than support Muslims of Russian origin, to everyone’s detriment. These unique insights and ongoing research, he hopes, will help temper security concerns by informing a more nuanced approach to integrating these communities in their respective contexts.

For more information, browse Crisis Group’s Special Coverage page for our developing series on the Russian-origin Muslim diaspora. 

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Tensions flared in the eastern Mediterranean in mid-2020 when Turkey sent seismic research ships into waters contested with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. While neither Turkey nor Greece seeks war with the other, competition over sovereignty and natural resources is reviving long-running geopolitical rivalries.

To discuss the various interests at play in their maritime standoff and how actors such as the EU and U.S. can help push the parties toward reconciliation, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Nigar Göksel, project director for Turkey. Together, they draw on key findings detailed in Crisis Group’s latest report on the issue – “Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue” – and assess whether recently restarted talks between President Erdogan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis signal a positive turn in strained relations and might lower the risks of regional conflict.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Eastern Mediterranean Rivalries page.

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As rapidly developing data technology outpaces governance structures and their ability to adapt, the long-term impact of increasingly data-driven economies on security and society remains uncertain. What happens when personal data ends up in the hands of those in power?

In the first episode of the third season of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Jim Balsillie, co-founder of Research in Motion, now known as BlackBerry, and founder of the Balsillie School of International Affairs, the Centre for Digital Rights and the Arctic Research Foundation, to discuss the intersection of technology and governance. They talk about the new global rule of law framework that was created to regulate technology and the dangers still presented by exploitative tech firms and anti-democratic governments looking for asymmetrical leverage. Jim also explores how data autonomy should be balanced with the ideals of democracy and how future generations will look back with concern on this era of lax personal data security.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s Technology and War global issue page.

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The Taliban’s dramatic toppling of the Afghan government prompted much soul-searching in the West. But for those closer to Kabul, anxieties about how the Taliban’s takeover will shape the region’s future are even more acute. Where some see risk, however, others see considerable opportunity. Russia’s position, for one, remains ambiguous: while Moscow seems unlikely to formally recognise the new government, it has cultivated a cordial relationship with the Taliban. For their part, Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors seek to balance possible economic and political collaboration and looming security threats.

So, as the dust settles in Afghanistan, what’s driving policymakers in Russia and Central Asia? In this new episode of War & Peace, Olga Oilker and Hugh Pope are joined by Ivan Safranchuk, Senior Fellow at Moscow’s Institute of International Studies, to discuss the role they will play in shaping Afghanistan’s future and to ask whether the country can avoid becoming the arena for yet more great-power competition. 

For more information explore Crisis Group’s Afghanistan, Russia and Central Asia regional pages and make sure to read Ivan’s latest article here.

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In 2015, over a million people fleeing conflict arrived at Europe’s borders. The continent showed itself to be woefully underprepared, struggling to address the unfolding catastrophe at its doorstep: as decision makers wrangled over asylum quotas, a humanitarian crisis escalated to dramatic proportions. Six years later observers fear that “another 2015” could be imminent after Kabul’s fall to the Taliban. 

In this episode of War & Peace  Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope welcome Liz Collett, Senior Adviser to the Director of the International Organization for Migration to ask how seriously we should take contemporary parallels with 2015. They also talk about the continued impact of the pandemic on global mobility, how climate change is transforming the future of migration, and ask how states can better protect both vulnerable migrants and internally displaced people.  

For more information explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe, Afghanistan and its neighbours, check out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. 

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Exactly a year ago, in November 2020, an old conflict on the south-western edge of Europe burst back into flames. After almost 30 years of ceasefire, the pro-independence Polisario Front and Morocco went back to battle stations in Western Sahara. European states have so far taken a timid stance in response, preferring not to involve themselves in another intractable conflict. Nonetheless, the new focus on Western Sahara is unsettling many relationships, particularly with Morocco. For its part, the Kingdom has taken a hardline response to even the most limited of criticisms: Rabat’s ambassador to Germany was even recalled after a public spat in May. A recent verdict from the European Court of Justice excluding Sahrawi goods and fish from a trade deal risks further ratcheting up tensions. So, how will conflict in Western Sahara affect Europe’s relations with Morocco? 

This week, Hugh Pope is joined by Intissar Fakir, Director of the Middle East Institute’s North Africa and Sahel Program, and Riccardo Fabiani, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for North Africa. They discuss Morocco’s successful hardball strategy, the Polisario’s desperate gambit, Rabat’s troubled alliance with Spain and France, and the ramifications of the Trump administration’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty. They ask whether Europe’s arms-length stance is another example of regional powers flexing ever-growing influence at the expense of the “big players” in the Old Continent’s capitals.

For more information explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe, Morocco, and Western Sahara, by checking out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. Make sure to take a look at our recent. report ‘Relaunching Negotiations’. 

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After sixteen years at Europe’s helm, Angela Merkel is stepping down from power. The federal election in September also marked an end to the long-term hold her political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had had over German politics. Merkel’s likely successor, Olaf Scholz, is now looking to forge a “traffic light coalition” between his Social Democratic Party (the SPD, whose trademark color is red), the Greens and the Liberals (yellow). While Scholz and his allies have made ambitious commitments to modernise Germany, it remains unclear what, if anything, this portends for foreign policy. Foreign affairs have so far taken the back seat during coalition negotiations, eclipsed by domestic concerns. Still, Germany’s new chancellor will be forced, however reluctantly, to contend with tremendous geopolitical shifts on the continent and further away. 

This week on War & Peace, Hugh and Olga are joined by Jana Puglierin, Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin Office, to make sense of Germany’s future under a new chancellor. They discuss the deprioritisation of foreign policy, possible sticking points between coalition members, the future of the transatlantic alliance with the United States, and increasingly bitter relations with Russia, Turkey and China. They ask whether Scholz’s chancellorship will chart a new course for Europe, and how Germany and the continent are poised to contend with a world of great-power competition. 

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe and its neighbours by checking out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. You can follow Jana’s work on the ECFR website. 

If you want to hear more about Merkel’s legacy, make sure to check out EuroPod's latest podcast, available in four languages. 

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On 10 November 2020, a Russian-brokered ceasefire put an end to a devastating war in Nagorno-Karabakh that killed some 7,000 people. But it did not bring peace. The year since has seen the situation grow increasingly uneasy. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have fortified their military positions along the state border and continue to exchange deadly fire: mid-November saw the worst escalation of fighting since the war’s end. Meanwhile, as Russian peacekeepers patrol in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region’s political status remains contested and talks are intermittent.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the South Caucasus. They discuss the recent violent flare-ups along the line of contact, the roles – planned and unplanned – played by Russian peacekeepers, Turkey’s role and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also discuss prospects for negotiation and ask what can be done to put an end to post-Soviet Eurasia’s longest-lasting conflict. 

For more information, make sure to explore Crisis Group’s Nagorno-Karabakh page and to check out Olesya’s recent op-ed for the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) ‘A Risky Role for Russian Peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh’.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!.

Olga Oliker, our War & Peace host and Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst, join Hold Your Fire! host and Interim President Richard Atwood to discuss what led to the crisis. These include the move forward – for the second time this year – of 100,000 Russian troops, the breakdown of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly testy statements about Ukraine’s relations with NATO member states. Ukrainian officials warn of a potential Russian invasion; Western leaders warn of severe consequences if that happens. 

Olga, Oleg and Richard look at what Putin may hope to gain with the army deployments, whether Moscow is really prepared to use force, what a military intervention might entail and how Ukraine and its Western partners might respond. They also look at what Western powers could do to deter an attack.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine and Russia pages.

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The threat posed by nuclear weapons is changing and policy-makers are struggling to keep up. As the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference approaches, it is clear that the nuclear security field needs a new way of thinking. Nuclear-weapon states are expanding their arsenals and non-proliferation efforts have faltered: it is estimated that Tehran’s nuclear breakout time is now less than a month away, following Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal in 2018 that had extended that timeline to 12 months.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Special guest-host Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director, are joined by Dr Emma Belcher, President of Ploughshares Fund, to ask whether and how bold innovation can solve some of these intractable challenges. They discuss the ways in which policy debates have, or have not, evolved, the continued dominance of deterrence theory and the wave of new, diverse and creative thinkers challenging stale ideas. They also discuss the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, prospects for other non-proliferation efforts and hopes for a nuclear-weapon-free future.

Make sure to learn more about Dr Belcher’s work at Ploughshares Fund by visiting ploughsares.org and listening to Ploughshares podcast Press the Button.

This episode is part of our continuing War & Peace sub-series on nuclear weapons and strategy. Click on our special coverage page here to listen to more episodes and benefit from a range of perspectives about everything from deterrence to civil defense to nuclear-weapons-free zones.

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In 2020, Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenka cracked down on protesters challenging the results of an election in which he had claimed resounding victory, and on the opposition in general. The European Union (EU) refused to recognise Lukashenka’s regime and imposed far-reaching sanctions. Relations between Belarus and its Western neighbours have since continued to spiral downward. In the summer of 2021, thousands of people, mainly from the Middle East, began gathering at the country’s border with Poland and the Baltic states, hoping to enter the EU. Incensed governments accused Lukashenka of ‘weaponising’ migrants by facilitating access to the border, and responded with a fifth round of sanctions. Lukashenka has so far refused to back down, turning ever more to Moscow for support, even as Russia’s relations with the West continue their own rapid decline and Russian troops mass near Ukraine. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Yauheni Preiherman, the Founder and Director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations. They discuss the realities of the border crisis and Lukashenka’s motives in fomenting it, asking whether his gamble has backfired. They also review Belarus’ foreign policy trajectory, its past overtures toward the West and its complicated relationship with Moscow. They talk about regional implications of the standoff with Europe and assess what Belarus tells us about how small states can and cannot navigate increasingly belligerent great power competition. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis make sure to explore our Belarus page and check out our latest ‘Behind the Frictions at the Belarus-Poland Border’. 

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A wave of democratic experimentation is defying conventional wisdom about electoral politics and good governance. Randomly selected citizens’ assemblies are becoming a popular tool for tackling complex policy issues. Ireland, France and Belgium, among others, have turned to citizens’ assemblies in recent years, often with considerable success. Proponents of this kind of random selection, also known as sortition, argue that it could usher in a new era of inclusive governance, an attractive prospect in an age of mounting inequity and public disillusionment with politicians. Still, doubts remain. For one, citizens’ assemblies have almost exclusively been trialled in wealthy Western countries. 

This week on War & Peace, Olya Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Brett Hennig, president of the Sortition Foundation and author of The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy. They discuss the basic precepts of sortition, the mechanics of setting up a representative citizens’ assembly, and their potential relationship with established political institutions. They talk about whether random selection could rebuild faith in democracy and how to ensure consensual and informed deliberation. They ask whether citizens’ assemblies are singularly suited for Western democracies and what role they could play in healing societal divisions in conflict-stricken states.

To find out more about Brett’s work make sure to check out his book The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy and the Sortition Foundation’s website.

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In early January 2022, an unexpected wave of protests swept across Kazakhstan. Initially provoked by a doubling of the price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), the protests rapidly grew more political as they spread throughout the country, encompassing a wide range of interests and demands. President Qasym Joomart Tokaev responded by shutting down the internet as his police detained over 12,000 people. Over 200 people died in the ensuing violence, and Tokaev called for help from his allies in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), even as he reshuffled his government. As the dust settles, Kazakhs hope for reform, fear more crackdowns, and seek clarity about what was behind the violence and what the future holds for their country. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined directly from Almaty by Nurseit Niyazbekov, assistant professor of international relations at Almaty’s KIMEP University and an on-the-ground witness of the protests (see below for a link to footage he shot the night of 5-6 January). They discuss the unrest’s initial triggers, the protests’ rapid spread, the government’s crackdown and rumours of a power struggle between the country’s ruling elites. They also talk about parallels with other post-Soviet states, Tokaev’s successful request for foreign military support from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the possibility of a geopolitical realignment in the region. 

For more information, make sure to explore Crisis Group’s Kazakhstan page and read our latest Q&A ‘Behind the Unrest in Kazakhstan’. You can also check out Nurseit’s incredible footage of events in Almaty here.

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The president of the European Commision, Ursula Von Der Leyen, has vowed to create a more “geopolitical commission”, ramping up Europe’s external involvement and staking out an increasingly prominent place on the world stage. Though it has at times struggled to forge a united policy, the EU should not be underestimated: as the world's third largest economy, the bloc has numerous tools at its disposal with which to exert its influence. Indeed, the EU already plays a key role in preventing conflicts around the world and improving prospects for peace. 

This week on War & Peace, Olya Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Hilde Hardeman, the director general for EU Publications and former head of the Service for Foreign Policy Instruments. They take stock of the challenges and opportunities facing Europe as geopolitical tensions at its borders reach boiling point and discuss how the EU’s foreign policy toolkit has evolved over time. They also talk about the EU’s conflict prevention strategies, its drive to put “green diplomacy” at the centre of its foreign policy, and Hilde’s commitment to combatting disinformation around the world. 

Make sure to check out Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List on the ten countries to consider in 2022 for early action and relief by the EU and its member states.

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The year 2022 looks set to be a challenging year for Europe. The EU must reckon with growing risks of conflict close to home: from a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine to rising ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans, the EU must brace itself for new wars on its doorstep. Elsewhere, deadly fighting and humanitarian disasters continue to rage across the globe – from Afghanistan to Ethiopia to Venezuela – and threaten to claim many more lives.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior EU Analyst  Lisa Musiol and Head of EU Affairs Giuseppe Famà  to run through Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List. They discuss eleven conflicts across the globe in which EU action or support could help prevent violence from escalating and humanitarian emergencies from worsening. They assess the successes and failures of the EU’s existing foreign policy toolkit and ask how it can adapt its strategy to contend with a world of mounting great power competition.

Make sure to check out Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List in full to learn more about the ten countries to consider in 2022 for early action and relief by the EU and its member states.

This episode of War & Peace was produced with the support of Stiftung Mercator

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!

On Thursday 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the launch of, in his words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes on military and other infrastructure near Ukrainian cities were followed by massive troop advances from the north, east and south. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have reached the capital Kyiv, where fighting rages on the city’s streets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on all Ukrainians to arm themselves to defend their homeland. Notwithstanding months of warnings, as perhaps as many as 200,000 Russian troops have massed at the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin’s invasion has left Europe, and indeed much of the world, in shock. It seems inevitable that it will exact a terrible human toll. 

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and guest host, Crisis Group’s president & CEO Comfort Ero are joined by Olga Oliker, our Europe & Central Asia director and War & Peace co-host, to discuss Russia’s aggression. They look at what’s happening on the ground, what the next few days could bring and what happens if the Zelenskyy government falls and the Russians try to install a pliant regime in Kyiv. They talk about the mood in Moscow and reactions to Russia’s invasion from around the world, including in China. They also talk through the Western response – the extent and impact of sanctions, what a NATO build-up would entail and whether Western powers should back Ukrainian resistance and what that might involve. They discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on wider global affairs.  

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent statement ‘ War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’. Comfort and Richard also discuss the Ukraine crisis in their piece, ‘10 Conflicts To Watch in 2022’.

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Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship sometimes baffles outside observers. In many respects, Turkey and Russia are fierce competitors: Moscow and Ankara back opposing camps in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, and Turkey is a member of NATO – the alliance Russia views as both adversary and threat. Nevertheless, this has not prevented collaboration between the two powers, who share profound economic and cultural ties and have made concerted efforts to deepen diplomatic relations, often to the frustration of Turkey's Western allies. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, a research fellow at ISPI, about Russo-Turkish relations. Eleonora helps unpack the two countries’ complex relationship and sketch out the deep economic and cultural ties connecting them, as well as the numerous sources of tension pitting Ankara against Moscow. She discusses Turkey’s juggling act in balancing relations with the EU and the Kremlin, and how Russo-Turkish relations and soft power shape geopolitics in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Africa. Mainly recorded prior to the massive invasion of Ukraine by Russia in late February, this episode also includes a brief addendum to reflect those events.

N.B Please note that this episode was recorded in late January 2022.

For more on Turkish foreign policy, check out our Turkey regional page. For analysis on the Ukraine crisis and its global implications, make sure to explore our Ukraine page and read our latest Q&A: “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis”.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's podcast The Horn -- featuring War & Peace's new host, Elissa Jobson.

Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunciation of Russian aggression. Where some countries robustly condemned the invasion as a flagrant violation of crucial norms, others were more hesitant, often highlighting the West’s inconsistent commitment to those very principles.

This week on The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson talks with Philani Mthembu, executive director at the South Africa-based Institute for Global Dialogue, to make sense of these disparate responses to the Ukraine war. They discuss the division at the UN, perceptions of both the conflict and Russia across the continent more broadly, and how the historical legacies of colonialism and liberation struggles inform views on contemporary geopolitics. They talk about perceived Western double standards, and about how both the racist treatment of African and Asian refugees and media coverage of the conflict reinforce these narratives. They also sketch out the war’s economic and diplomatic implications and ask how Africa can forge a united continental position to better shield itself from the fallout.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent commentary: “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?”, for perspectives from around the world.

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War continues to rage in Ukraine, over a month after Russia launched its large-scale invasion. Alongside its staggering humanitarian consequences, the war’s fallout has been felt widely around the globe – impacting everything from commodity prices to negotiations to finalise the Iran nuclear deal. Meanwhile, countries’ responses to the invasion have run the gamut from outrage to ambivalence to sympathy. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker introduces new co-host Elissa Jobson, as they unpack these far-reaching shockwaves and discuss how the conflict is being viewed around the world. They talk about why Ukrainian and Russian narratives do, and don’t, reverberate in the Global South and whether disillusionment with perceived Western hypocrisy has given Russia an edge in the information war. They also discuss the impact of President Biden’s “this man must go” comment about his Russian counterpart and take stock of the prospects for a negotiated resolution to the war. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Ukraine page. 

This episode of War & Peace was produced with the support of Stiftung Mercator.

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The future of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is in doubt. Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in clear violation of the OSCE’s commitments to territorial integrity, sovereignty and human rights, has put unprecedented strain on the world's largest regional security organisation, raising questions about its viability as a forum for engagement between Russia and the West.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Dr. Cornelius Friesendorf, Head of the Centre for OSCE Research, to talk about the OSCE’s future in the wake of the war. They discuss the OSCE’s origins, the role it plays today and the longstanding challenges it has faced as it tried to uphold its lofty ambitions. They also ask what role it could play in Ukraine, from facilitating dialogue to monitoring a possible ceasefire, and what steps its members can take to prevent its collapse.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Ukraine page and our recent commentary, ‘Preserving the OSCE at a Time of War’.

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a huge displacement crisis, with nearly eight million people internally displaced and over five million fleeing abroad. As the fighting enters its third month, the war's immense humanitarian cost looks set to mount even higher – potentially leading even more to flee. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Simon Schlegel, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ukraine, about this humanitarian emergency and how Ukraine and its Western partners have responded to it. They discuss the different causes and types of displacement, how these have evolved throughout the war and the obstacles faced by vulnerable groups attempting to flee. They also take stock of the humanitarian response so far, asking how Ukraine and its partners can best ensure a sustainable strategy that addresses a wide variety of needs. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Ukraine page and keep an eye out for upcoming reports on the country's humanitarian crisis and the war’s impact on global commodity prices. 

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The Western Balkans, a region defined in part by not being in the European Union, also contains several countries that were devastated by war in the 1990s. Now it faces new troubles, driven in part by the legacies of the old. Bosnia and Herzegovina is confronted with calls for secession in the autonomous Serb-dominated region, Republika Srpska, as well as the ongoing electoral grievances of its Croat minority. Meanwhile, efforts to resolve Kosovo’s dispute with Serbia over its independence have come to a standstill, leaving minority communities on both sides of the border vulnerable.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s Consulting Senior Analyst for the Balkans, about why ethnic tensions persist in the region and whether there is any risk of a return to conflict. They discuss the prospects for European integration, asking whether the promise of EU membership remains an effective incentive for resolving these longstanding disputes. They also consider what impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had for stability in the Western Balkans, a region where painful memories of war are still very salient today.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Balkans regional page and keep an eye out for our upcoming report on the risk of instability in the Western Balkans.

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been a watershed moment for EU foreign policy. Since then, the EU has mobilised €2 billion of military aid and levied some of the harshest sanctions ever imposed. At the same time, there is concern about how the effects of the Ukraine war will be felt in conflicts elsewhere, as geopolitical tensions threaten to derail fragile peace processes and undermine international cooperation.

This week on War & Peace, Elissa Jobson is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior EU Analyst Lisa Musiol and Head of EU Affairs Giuseppe Famà to run through the recommendations from our Spring Update to the 2022 Watch List. They discuss the EU’s response to the Ukraine war and how it can capitalise on an emboldened foreign policy to promote peace in some of the world’s other conflicts. Highlighting the threats to peace in Libya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh and Pakistan, they argue the EU must step up its engagement to prevent escalation and help save lives around the globe, not just in Ukraine. 

Check out Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List – Spring Update in full to learn more about the crises and conflicts where the EU and its member states can act for peace. 

This episode of War & Peace was produced with the support of Stiftung Mercator.

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After failing to capture Kyiv, Russian forces have regrouped, with Moscow looking to solidify control of territory it holds in the south and east and to capture more land, including all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Artillery exchanges and positional fighting continue, even as local cities and towns suffer under bombardment and/or occupation.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson unpack some of the unique dynamics of the fighting in these eastern regions. They discuss the tactics used by the Russian army in the war so far, drawing comparisons to its other interventions – past and present – in Chechnya and Syria. They talk about what Russia is trying to achieve in Ukraine’s east and how it envisions the region’s future, as more towns come under Russian occupation. They also discuss why the prospects of successful peace talks look increasingly slim and what might need to happen for parties to decide that negotiations are more advantageous than continued fighting.

For more analysis of the Ukraine war, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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When world leaders convened at COP26 in November last year, climate was at the forefront of the global agenda. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has instead triggered a new “gold rush” for fossil fuels amid skyrocketing commodity prices. In the shadow of the continuing war, leaders meeting at the G7 summit later this month must find ways to reduce reliance on Russian energy without compromising the goal of “climate neutrality” – the central theme chosen for the summit by Germany, which currently holds the G7 presidency.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Crisis Group’s Director of Innovation and Deputy Director of the Future of Conflict Program, Champa Patel. They discuss how climate change is multiplying the threat of conflict throughout the world, driving resource competition, and amplifying social and economic inequalities. They also talk about the effect of conflict on attempts to address climate change, including in the context of the Ukraine war, and the risk that it will lead many European states to dramatically increase their fossil fuel consumption. Looking ahead to the G7 summit and a critical COP27 in Egypt, they talk about what needs to be done to keep the green transition on track and why addressing conflict-climate links must be on the global agenda.

For more about how climate and conflict interact, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Future of Conflict Program page.

This episode of War & Peace was produced with the support of Stiftung Mercator.

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Landmines remain a tool of warfare around the world. Yet both during and after fighting, they wreak havoc not just on adversaries, but also on the civilian population. In mined areas, everyday activities such as farming crops or going to school are fraught with risk. In Ukraine, after eight years of conflict, landmines have long threatened civilians in the Donbas. Now, in the wake of Russia’s February invasion, the problem affects far more of the country. In Afghanistan, meanwhile, though the fighting has largely ended, explosive devices remain in place, making schools, homes, roads and fields hazardous. Families often face the difficult choice between farming dangerous land or going hungry.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to James Cowan, CEO of landmine clearance charity The HALO Trust, about the impact of unexploded ordnance and the challenges of mitigating its risks. James recounts what he saw on recent trips to Ukraine and Afghanistan, describes some of the dangers people face daily as a result of leftover explosives. They discuss the challenges of mine and ordnance clearance in Ukraine. They talk about James’ meetings with Taliban leaders and the pressing need to clear mines on agricultural land amid the country’s growing food crisis. They also discuss the gendered effects of landmines, shelling and war more generally.

For more about the situations in Ukraine and Afghanistan, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Ukraine and Afghanistan country pages.

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Even if the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, the country’s humanitarian needs would be colossal. Around 6.3 million people are displaced internally, with many still living in communal shelters not suited to the coming winter. While fighting rages on mostly in Ukraine’s east and south east, the effects of war reverberate throughout the rest of the country, which has no choice but to adapt to a “new normal” amid a continuing war.

In this last episode of Season Three of War & Peace, Olga OIiker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Alissa de Carbonnel, Crisis Group’s Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director, and Simon Schlegel, Senior Ukraine Analyst, to learn how life goes on in wartime Kyiv and western Ukraine. Alissa and Simon – back from a recent visit to Kyiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, as well as smaller towns outside the regional capitals – share stories of displaced people whose lives have been turned upside down by Russia’s invasion and volunteer humanitarian workers finding creative solutions to an ever-changing set of problems. They talk about their experience crossing the Polish border at Przemyśl, travelling through western regions and onto Kyiv. They recount what they saw: men and women lining up outside military recruitment offices, gyms and school halls converted into shelters for the displaced, and building windows sandbagged due to the threat of Russian airstrikes. As Ukraine adapts to this new reality, Alissa and Simon outline the enormous challenges of an emergency response for millions of people in need spread across one of the largest countries in Europe, where war is still raging.

For more about the war in Ukraine, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Ukraine country page.

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On 21 September, Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation in Russia, marking a major escalation of the war in Ukraine. According to Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, 300,000 Russians could be added to the force, although how quickly is not clear and far more may need to be called up to reach those numbers. This comes after significant setbacks for the Russian military, especially in eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, with Ukrainian forces retaking large swathes of Russian-held territory in a matter of days over September.

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, to take a closer look at the military aspects of the war in Ukraine. They talk about Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in September and assess the Russian military’s performance thus far, including the very limited use of its air force. They also discuss the decision to mobilise in Russia, what training these freshly drafted soldiers can expect and the potential impact on the war in Ukraine.

For more about the war in Ukraine, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Ukraine country page and our statement Staying the Course in Ukraine.

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More than two weeks after the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 2 October, the country’s political future remains uncertain. While reformist and moderate candidates have seen success in the run for the country’s presidency – a position that is shared between members of the Bosniak, Croat and Serb entities – many of Bosnia’s underlying political divisions persist. Causing further dispute was the announcement of significant changes to Bosnia’s constitution and electoral system on the night of the election by the country’s high representative, Christian Schmidt, which were particularly ill-received by some members of the Bosniak community. Meanwhile, Serb leader Milorad Dodik has faced allegations of vote-rigging in the run for president of the semi-autonomous Republika Srpska leading to a recount of ballots in the region.   

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s senior consulting analyst for the Balkans, about what happened at the Bosnian elections, the main dispute between Bosnia’s political entities and where the country is headed. They talk about Bosnia’s highly complicated election system and why it has been the cause of much friction between members of the Bosniak, Croat and Serb communities in the country. They address the intervention by the high representative on election night and whether this move had any merit despite being highly controversial. They also talk about the impact of the war in Ukraine on Bosnia and how it has affected its prospects for European Union accession. Finally, they assess whether the political divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina are surmountable and how a potential return to violence in the country can be prevented. 

For more about the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Bosnia and Herzegovina country page and our briefing Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Hot Summer.

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It has been almost two years since a November 2020 ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended a brutal six-week war. While the Moscow-brokered deal was meant to end large-scale combat operations, it hasn’t stopped regular flare-ups of armed violence between the two sides since, culminating in September with the deadliest clashes yet along their shared border. Although Armenia and Azerbaijan may now be edging closer to a peace agreement, the negotiations remain fraught. The fighting in 2020 ended with Azerbaijan back in control of territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Armenian troops had held for almost 30 years, since the end of the last large-scale conflict, and parts of that region as well. But a deal would determine the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, including parts populated by local Armenians, where Russian peacekeepers have patrolled since 2020. The prospect of Azerbaijan regaining control makes ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh nervous, to say the least. 

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They talk about the causes and consequences of the large-scale clashes in September. They also address how Russia’s involvement has changed in the region and how its war in Ukraine has affected peacemaking efforts. Finally, they address how views on the prospects of peace differ in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and what it would mean to create sustainable peace in the region.

For more about the political situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Caucasus regional page.

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If war reached most of Ukraine in February of 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the country’s eastern Donbas region has been torn apart by war since Russia, having occupied Crimea, undertook operations there in 2014. Since February, Russian forces have occupied even more territory in the region, some of which Ukrainian troops have now liberated. But having done so, Kyiv must grapple with the question of how to govern in the face of deep societal divisions and suspicions that at least some of the local residents collaborated with occupiers. 

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Brian Milakovsky, an expert on economic development in eastern Ukraine, to unpack what’s been happening in Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine’s east throughout the war and what’s next for people living in those territories that have now returned to Ukrainian control. They talk about the simmering conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas before Russia’s February full-scale invasion, and how it shaped perceptions of national identity in the region. They discuss how Russia’s expansion of its occupation in these regions played out this year, and why Moscow misjudged the popular support for its invasion, expecting a friendly welcome it decidedly did not get. They also address how Ukraine is dealing with alleged Russian collaborators, how they are identified and what kind of treatment suspects can expect. Finally, they discuss whether there are lessons to be learned from the past to overcome societal divisions in Ukraine in the years to come.

For more in-depth analysis on Ukraine and the Donbas, make sure to check out Crisis Group’s Ukraine regional page and our Donbas Visual Explainer. 

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For more than a decade, Russia has made a concerted effort to strengthen its influence on the African continent. It has had some success. In countries like the Central African Republic and Mali, Russia has become the preferred partner for the provision of security services through private military companies like Wagner. Meanwhile, France and other Western countries have struggled to maintain their foothold in Mali and elsewhere amid strong anti-colonial sentiment and growing authoritarianism in the region. While the extent of Russia’s influence in Africa remains hard to gauge, the prospect of emerging power struggles between Moscow and Western capitals in Africa may bode poorly for peacemaking efforts on the continent.

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Pauline Bax, Crisis Group’s Africa program deputy director, to talk about what to make of Russia’s involvement in Africa. They talk about how Russian influence in Africa has evolved in places like Mali and the Central African Republic. They also discuss what role traditional and social media have played in shaping popular perceptions about Russia and the West on the continent. Finally, they talk about whether growing competition between Russia and the West could hamper efforts to foster peace and stability in conflict-afflicted regions in Africa.

For more in-depth analysis on Russia’s involvement in Africa, check out our Africa program page.

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On 13 November, a bomb detonated in Istanbul’s busy Istiklal Avenue, killing six and wounding 81 people. Ankara blamed the attack on the PKK, a Kurdish militant insurgency, which has been in a decades-long battle with the Turkish military. The PKK denied involvement in the attack. Subsequently, Türkiye launched a series of airstrikes in northern Syria and Iraq on the PKK and affiliated groups and threatened a new ground offensive in northern Syria. These events mark the latest chapter in a conflict that has seen a deadly resurgence after the breakdown of a two-and-a-half-year-long ceasefire between Türkiye and the PKK in 2015. Since then, the fighting has increasingly proliferated into northern Syria and Iraq, drawing in a growing set of actors and becoming increasingly difficult to resolve.

In this episode of War & Peace, Elissa Jobson talks with Berkay Mandıracı, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Türkiye, about how Türkiye’s PKK conflict has developed since the breakdown of the ceasefire in 2015 and where it might be headed. They discuss the role of external actors in the conflict, how U.S. support for the SDF in northern Syria affects its relations with Türkiye and what role Russia might play in a potential Turkish offensive in northern Syria. They also address the domestic political situation in Türkiye in light of the conflict, as well as the significance of Kurdish constituencies’ vote in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections and how that might affect the future trajectory of the country as well as dynamics of the PKK conflict.

For more on the Türkyie-PKK conflict, check out our Türkiye country page, our Türkiye-PKK Visual Explainer and our commentary Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux.

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From 2009 to 2014, Catherine Ashton served as the European Union’s (EU) first high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. In that role, she was the EU’s senior  negotiator for some of the most important international agreements of the early 21st century, including the 2013 Serbia-Kosovo settlement and the lead-up to the Iran nuclear deal. In her forthcoming book And Then What?, Ashton shares her personal insights into modern diplomacy and her experiences in dealing with some of the thorniest security challenges throughout her tenure.

In the first episode of War & Peace in 2023, Catherine Ashton joins Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson for a conversation on the role of diplomacy in a world where it seems to increasingly take a back seat to conflict. They assess the EU's diplomatic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year and the efficacy of sanctions as a tool in international relations. They also discuss how the war might affect the European security landscape in the long term. In closing, they ask how to bring more women to the key debates and decision-making roles in foreign affairs and international diplomacy. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Ukraine country page and our global issues page on Multilateral Diplomacy.

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2022 was a turbulent year for Kazakhstan. In early January, anti-government protests erupted across the country. The resulting clashes between police and demonstrators led to thousands of arrests and left more than 200 people dead. In response, President Kassym-Jomart Tokaev promised political reforms. Tokaev also quickly began distancing himself (in public, at least) from his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev. Kazakhstan has faced further challenges in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since September, thousands of Russians fleeing military mobilisation have arrived in Kazakhstan and a wave of inflation is spelling uncertainty for the economic future of the country. 

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Nurseit Niyazbekov, professor of international relations at Almaty's KIMEP University, to discuss the aftermath of the deadly protests last January, Kazakhstan’s political landscape and the impact of the war in Ukraine on the country’s domestic and foreign affairs. They address how Tokaev fared politically in 2022 and the prospects for democratic reforms in the country. They also examine the impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine on Kazakhstan’s economy and how Kazakhstan has balanced its foreign relations since "Bloody January". 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Kazakhstan country page.

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Accusations of anti-semitism and nazism have been a leitmotif of the Russian-Ukrainian war from its start. Russian propaganda has consistently accused Ukraine’s government of ultra-nationalist and fascist tendencies since the conflict began in 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin drew on years of this narrative in February 2022 when he paired Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with promises to "denazify" the country. As fighting continued throughout 2022 and since, both Moscow and Kyiv have appealed to the historical memory of their country’s struggle against Nazis in the Second World War. Meanwhile, Israel has seen a large influx of Ukrainian and Russian Jews since the outbreak of the war and has tried to maintain its relationships with both countries.

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Sam Sokol, reporter at Haaretz, to discuss how the war in Ukraine has affected the country's Jewish communities and Ukraine-Israel relations. They talk about the significance of far-right elements and anti-semitism in Ukrainian society and politics, and about how new narratives of patriotism, combined with Russia’s invasion, have changed how Ukrainian Jews think about their history. They also delve into the experiences of both Jewish and non-Jewish Ukrainians who have been displaced. Finally, they examine Israel's stance on the conflict, the country's acceptance of Russian and Ukrainian immigrants, and the experience of these communities in Israel.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Ukraine and Israel/Palestine pages.

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This episode of War & Peace draws on a live Twitter Spaces discussion between Olga Oliker, Elissa Jobson, Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan and its Senior Adviser for the U.S. Brian Finucane regarding the prospects for a crime of aggression tribunal to hold Russian leadership accountable for the invasion of Ukraine. Their conversation explains what crimes of aggression mean from the standpoint of international law and delves into the roles the UN, the U.S. and the international community might play in establishing a tribunal to prosecute them. The four also cover the historical precedents for and the challenges inherent in implementing such a tribunal, as well as the different shapes it could take in the case of Ukraine. They talk about how a tribunal could affect peacemaking efforts in Ukraine and whether it might disincentivise the Russian leadership from reaching a negotiated settlement. Lastly, they assess the value of a tribunal in upholding international law as well as holding responsible parties accountable.

This discussion was hosted live on Twitter Spaces. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Ukraine page.

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has marked a watershed for Europe. The European Union (EU) and its member states acted quickly to implement sanctions against Russia, bolster Ukrainian defences and improve their own energy security. Now, over a year later, with no end in sight to the fighting, EU members and their allies and partners are faced with new challenges as they strive to ensure their policies are sustainable and start thinking about how best to define and ensure their security into the future. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Bert Koenders, former Dutch minister of foreign affairs and current Crisis Group trustee, about how the war in Ukraine has changed Europe, how the EU has faced the challenges created by the war and the future of Europe’s security architecture. They take stock of the EU’s response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and discuss European solidarity in support of Ukraine among its member states. They also evaluate how the EU might need to adapt its policies and internal structure to better address not just continuing war in Ukraine, but also future crises. Finally, they touch on how Europe’s security architecture might change, prospects for European strategic autonomy and, relatedly, whether the U.S. will remain a reliable partner. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Ukraine page and our EU Watch List.

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In early March, Georgians took to the street in Tbilisi to protest a bill that would have classified organisations and media groups receiving more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad as foreign agents. Although the ruling Georgian Dream party eventually dropped the bill, many Georgians remain frustrated at the government for what they see as a deliberate effort to turn the country’s back to the EU in favour of Russia. This particularly rankles those who see echoes of the five-day war Russia fought against Georgia in 2008 in Russia’s continuing full-scale war in Ukraine.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera and Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus Olesya Vartanyan to talk about what's behind the protests and what might lie ahead for the political future of the country. They delve into the root causes for the protests, how they unfolded and Georgian Dream’s politics and policies. They also examine how the war in Ukraine has and has not affected Georgia’s relations with its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Finally, they discuss Georgia’s prospects for EU candidacy and why Brussels might be well advised not to turn its back on the country.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Georgia country page.

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Israel’s new governing far-right coalition under Benjamin Netanyah has proposed judicial reform that would weaken the country’s judiciary. In response, Israelis have taken to the streets in protests, activism that has now gone on for months. The protests reflect not just the reforms, but frustration with this government, which took office in December 2022 and is often described as the most right-wing in the nation's history. To Europe, the shift to the far-right is concerning but not unfamiliar, with similar movements in many European countries. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with historian, writer and strategic specialist Dr. Ilana Bet-El about how protests and far-right politics in Israel are and are not mirrored in Europe and beyond. They discuss what these protests might achieve, the lessons they offer for Europe and the U.S., and how societal divisions and far-right efforts to erode democratic values might be mitigated and reversed. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our regional pages on Israel/Palestine and Europe and Central Asia.

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The EU’s relations with China have long been complex. With China’s influence expanding globally and the U.S. increasingly viewing Beijing as its primary competitor, the EU and its member states have choices to make, choices further complicated by China’s close ties to Russia and the role it might yet play in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. Beijing, for its part, also faces choices as it continues to build up ties with Moscow  and maintain trade with the EU and its members. Finally, Beijing’s relationship to  Moscow could make it one of the more viable prospective peacemakers in Ukraine – if China really thinks that is in its interest . 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Janka Oertel, director of the Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to shed light on the intricate web of goals and realities of EU-China relations. They talk about the EU's changing view of China over time, how united member states are in their policy toward China and how Beijing views its relations with Europe. They also explore how the EU is positioning itself with regard to Washington’s increasingly hawkish China policy.  Also on the agenda: China's perspective on Russia's war against Ukraine, Beijing’s potential leverage over Russia and the war’s impact on the future of China-EU relations.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our regional pages on China as well as Europe and Central Asia.

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This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Crisis Group’s Türkiye Director Nigar Göksel about the Turkish elections and how President Erdoğan’s new term might shape the country’s domestic and foreign policy. 

Last Sunday, Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured another five years in office after winning the presidential runoff election against the opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. While the election was one of the most closely fought in Turkish history, the runoff was a decisive loss for the opposition, which garnered 48 per cent of the vote to Erdoğan’s 52 per cent. Erdoğan is now poised to preside over a pivotal five years for Türkiye. The country faces numerous domestic challenges, including a looming economic crisis and the continued fallout from devastating earthquakes in February. It also has sought to carve out a decisive role for itself in an increasingly unstable world order.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker is joined by Crisis Group’s Türkiye Project Director Nigar Göksel to talk about how the election unfolded and what to expect from President Erdoğan’s next term. They discuss key factors behind Erdoğan’s win and why the opposition ultimately failed to garner the votes to win. They also talk about the popularity of nationalist parties and the overall mood among voters in the country. Finally, they ask how Türkiye’s domestic and foreign policy might evolve in the months and years to come, and how the country’s assertiveness on the global stage will shape its relations with its Western and non-Western partners.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Türkiye regional page.

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On 29 May, a group of ethnic Serb protesters clashed with troops of the NATO peacekeeping force KFOR in the town of Zvečan in northern Kosovo. Demonstrators were angry at the Kosovo government’s decision to instal ethnic Albanian mayors, elected in a poll boycotted by the region’s majority ethnic Serb population, in the country’s northern municipalities. The mayors’ installation and ensuing clashes followed months of escalating tensions and efforts by the EU to return the parties to pragmatic negotiations. Now, Brussels and Washington are frustrated with Kosovo’s actions, which they see as unnecessary provocations, and seeking ways to avoid further escalation and incentivise the parties to implement past promises.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks with Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Western Balkans, to unpack what’s behind the most recent flare-up in tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. They discuss the history of Kosovo-Serbia relations and the events leading up to the latest outbreak of violence. They talk about what it means for the normalisation process between Pristina and Belgrade and what international actors like the U.S. and EU can do to reduce the tensions. Finally, they discuss the risks of escalation and prospects for resolving the crisis. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest Q&A Behind the Renewed Troubles in Northern Kosovo, our EU Watch List entry Kosovo-Serbia: Finding a Way Forward and our Kosovo country page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the attempted insurrection by Wagner forces in Russia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!

Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private security company known as the Wagner Group, spearheaded an insurrection in Russia. In response to Kremlin moves to bring Wagner under the Russian army’s command and, according to him, attacks on a Wagner base by the Russian military, the group seized the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the main staging ground for Russia’s Ukraine war. Wagner forces then advanced to within 200km of Moscow before Prigozhin backed down and agreed to leave for Belarus and demobilise his forces involved in the uprising. Wagner’s future, particularly in areas of Africa and the Middle East in which it operates, is uncertain. 

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks first with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker about what drove Prigozhin’s rebellion and what it means for the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine. Richard then talks to Sahel Director Jean-Hervé Jezequel and UN Director Richard Gowan about how the uprising might affect Wagner’s operations in Africa, particularly in Mali. They look at how the Malian transitional authorities’ ties to Moscow and Wagner have influenced Bamako’s foreign relations and their recent demand that the Security Council pull out UN peacekeepers from Mali. They also examine what the withdrawal of the mission might mean for the fight against jihadists in Mali and a peace process in the country’s north that is already under strain. 

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Russia and Africa pages.

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Western support for Ukraine’s war against Russia has faced continued scrutiny. Critics have compared the conflict to past American wars of choice, such as the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, which were informed by neoconservative foreign policy, aiming to promote peace and democracy through military means. Ukraine and its backers present a contrasting narrative, emphasising both defence against Russia's unprovoked invasion, and forwarding a narrative of this war as the frontline for democracy and freedom. So, is the war in Ukraine a conflict the left can get behind or is it driven by neoconservative ideology?

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Hans Kundnani, Associate Fellow at the Chatham House Europe Programme, about the ideology behind Western support for the war in Ukraine and why it matters. They discuss whether the war in Ukraine should be seen as a left-wing progressive war or a neoconservative war, or neither. They explore the values and motivations behind Western support for Ukraine, comparing it to past conflicts and examining the role of democracy and human rights in shaping foreign policy. They also discuss the role of the Global South and the importance of considering its interests in addressing the conflict.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Ukraine country page.

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War, by definition, takes terrible tolls on civilian populations. Just what risks a given person faces depends on many factors, including gender, class and geography. While international law has evolved to protect both civilians and combatants at war, it is not always followed, to say the least, and governments often fail to adequately protect even their own civilian population. In Ukraine, the government's decision to ban most men aged eighteen to 60 from leaving the country has had unexpected effects on Ukrainians, both men and women. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Charli Carpenter, director of the Human Security Lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, about the protection of civilians in wartime, the gendered effects of conflict and how all of this is playing out in Ukraine. They discuss misconceptions about conflict and gender and the role of international law in protecting civilians. They delve into the Human Security Lab’s latest research on the perception and effects of Ukraine’s male travel ban and what both the Ukrainian government and its international partners can do to mitigate its unintended humanitarian and strategic consequences. Finally, they address how international law might evolve and how to bring governments to better adhere to them. 

Make sure to check out Human Security Lab’s latest report, “Protecting Civilian Men's Right to Flee the Ukraine War: Strategic and Humanitarian Impacts”. For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Ukraine country page and our Gender and Conflict page.

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On 12 July, NATO concluded its two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. At the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the decision to hold the meeting in one of NATO’s newer members and a country claimed by the Soviet Union for decades was seen as a sign of commitment to the alliance's eastern flank. The war in Ukraine was unsurprisingly the focal point of the summit, with NATO members committing to continued support for Kyiv and revamped deterrence in Europe as a whole and the Baltics in particular. But those who hoped Ukraine would be invited to join left disappointed.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Lithuanian parliamentarian Dovilė Šakalienė to take stock of the summit, the shifting security situation in the Baltics and the future of NATO. They talk about the main takeaways from the summit and different perspectives on Ukraine’s prospective membership. They also talk about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed security perceptions and defence priorities in the Baltics. Finally, they discuss what other challenges loom for NATO, including what role the alliance might play should conflict between Taiwan and China occur.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Europe and Central Asia program page.

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In the first episode of a new season of War & Peace, Olga Oliker is joined by Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, to talk about the implications of Azerbaijan regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a one-day military operation on 19 September. The immediate consequences were the end of the enclave’s three decades of de facto self-rule and a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians. Olya, Zaur, and Olesya discuss the new refugee crisis, Armenia’s response and prospects for the enclave under Azerbaijani rule, including for any ethnic Armenians who stay or those who seek to return in the future. They also address the potential for both peace deals and renewed escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and what leverage outside actors, including the U.S., Russia (whose role has been fundamentally transformed), the European Union and Türkiye, can exert to make a sustainable peace more likely. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the events in Nagorno-Karabakh, check out our recent statement Responding to the Humanitarian Catastrophe in Nagorno-Karabakh and our Nagorno-Karabakh page.

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Throughout history, women have been involved in conflict: as soldiers, as insurgents and as civilians. Yet, the ways in which men and women are treated on and off the battlefield and the contributions they make can vary widely, shaped in large part by deeply ingrained societal views about gender.

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Jessica Trisko Darden, Associate Professor of Political Science at Virginia Commonwealth University, to discuss how gender dynamics shape insurgencies and wars. They explore the reasons why women decide to go to war, what motivates insurgent groups and armed forces to recruit women and the perceived benefits and costs of greater gender parity. They discuss the roles women and men take on in war and why these often differ. They take a closer look at how these gender dynamics have played out in Ukraine and elsewhere, the institutional barriers women face within the military and Kyiv’s efforts to recruit more women into its armed forces. They also discuss how the conscription of women differs in armed forces around the world.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Gender and Conflict page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga talks with Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, about whether the current moment makes negotiations to end the war in Ukraine more or less advantageous for all concerned. They discuss Russian narratives about negotiations, various parties' goals and whether or not Moscow has the upper hand in the wake of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. They also unpack the prerequisites for and attainability of sustainable security for Ukraine and Europe. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Julien Barnes-Dacey, Middle East and North Africa Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), to assess Europe’s response to the Gaza war. They unpack different EU Member States’ positions on the war and why it has been difficult for European leaders to find common ground on policies toward Israel-Palestine. They ask how much leverage Europe has over the conflict actors and what its role might be in Gaza once the war is over. Their conversation also covers the fallout of the fighting on domestic politics across the EU and how it might influence the debate around migration policy. Finally, they weigh the implications of Europe’s lacklustre response for the EU’s global standing and whether a fundamental change in its policy in the Middle East is in the cards in the foreseeable future.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, to assess Russia’s stance on the war in Gaza, how Russia is looking to benefit from the war and its approach to the Middle East. They look at how Moscow is trying to leverage the conflict to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with Gulf Arab states and ask just how much all this will damage its relations with Israel in the long term. They talk about Russia’s engagement with Iran and potentially shifting views on Iran’s nuclear program. They also discuss whether or not the war will undermine prospects for arms control in the Middle East.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Israel/Palestine and Russia pages.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Camille Lons, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about how Europe is responding to rising tensions in the Red Sea. They discuss what’s behind the recent string of attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi rebels in Yemen and how disruptions to supply chains in these strategic waters might affect prices of energy and consumer goods in Europe. They assess the EU’s proposed naval mission Aspides, its role in upholding maritime security in the Red Sea and whether it could risk drawing Europe into a wider conflict in the Middle East. They also talk about what the EU can do to better address the root causes of instability in the Red Sea beyond military engagement, how it can present itself as an alternative partner to regional actors disgruntled with U.S. policy in the Middle East and whether it should consider cooperating with other powers with interests in the area, including China.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula page. For more on the EU’s role in peacemaking around the world, check out the latest edition of our EU Watch List.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Alissa de Carbonnel, Crisis Group’s Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director, and Simon Schlegel, Senior Ukraine Analyst, to talk about the latest developments along Ukraine’s front lines and the uncertainties emerging around support from Kyiv’s Western backers. They talk about the Russian takeover of Avdiivka on 17 February, what it means for the progress of the war and whether further Russian gains should be expected given Kyiv’s shortfalls in ammunition and personnel. They discuss how Europe is reacting to the gridlock in Washington over additional aid for Ukraine and why it has been difficult for the EU to ramp up its own arms production to meet Kyiv’s needs. They also assess how the trajectory of the war and the prospect of declining support from the West is perceived in Ukraine and how Kyiv might adapt in the year ahead. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk to Joe Cirincione, author and a leading expert on arms control and national security, about the demise of arms control and the threat of nuclear war in a rapidly changing world order. They discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine and the role deterrence has played in that war. They assess how U.S. nuclear policy has evolved in recent years and how it could change under a second Trump presidency. They also discuss why nuclear-armed countries are building up their arsenals and what policymakers in the U.S. and elsewhere can do to prevent the global arms control architecture from collapsing.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our website. You can read more from Joe on his substack Strategy & History.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s Oleg Ignatov, Senior Russia Analyst, and Marta Mucznik, Senior EU Analyst, about Moldova’s increasingly fraught relations with its breakaway region of Transnistria and Gagauz autonomous region, the recent appeals the two issued to Moscow for protection and implications for Chisinau’s EU membership goals. They discuss the shifting power dynamics between Transnistria and the pro-EU integration government in Moldova since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and what the breakaway region’s larger economic dependence on Chisinau and the EU means for the prospect of reunification. They assess Russia’s involvement in Moldova and Moscow’s geopolitical aims in the region. They also talk about how the EU views the situation in Moldova and what Chisinau and others can do to prevent tensions further escalating.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Moldova country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s senior EU analyst Marta Mucznik and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Susi Dennison, about the upcoming European Union parliamentary elections. With predictions of right-wing gains high, they ask what such an electoral outcome could mean for foreign policy. They also look at the factors driving the rise of far-right parties throughout Europe, their ideological profiles and visions for Europe’s future. Specifically, they speculate on potential implications for EU support for Ukraine, relations with China and enlargement policy. They also discuss whether the far-right in Europe will keep gaining influence and what an increasingly fragmented political landscape could mean for the future.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out ECFR’s policy brief A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections and our EU Watch List 2024 – Spring Update.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, about how perspectives on the war in Ukraine are evolving in Kyiv and Washington and how both capitals grapple with the prospect of a long war as the U.S. heads for elections. They speak about what has changed in Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion and how much unity there is among Ukrainian society and its leadership over the trajectory of the war. They unpack Ukraine’s new mobilisation law, how it is received by the military and ordinary citizens and whether it will have a substantial effect on the country’s war effort. They also assess where Washington’s Ukraine policy might be headed amid divisions in Congress over continued military support for Kyiv, how big of a role the war has played in the run-up to the U.S. elections and how Ukrainians view the prospect of a second Trump presidency. 

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reports Ukraine: How to Hold the Line and A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories and our Q&A An Embattled Kyiv Looks for Aid in the Diplomatic Arena.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga speaks with Crisis Group’s consulting senior Balkans analyst Marko Prelec about the enduring political and ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans. They discuss the looming risk of Bosnia and Herzegovina breaking up amid secessionist threats by authorities in Republika Srpska and grievances among Bosnia’s ethnic groups with its political system and its international supervision. They talk about the challenges of reconciliation in Bosnia as the country commemorates the anniversary of the Srebrenica Genocide this month. They then unpack the tensions between Kosovo and Serbia and Pristina’s efforts to assert authority in the Serb-majority north of the country. They also ask about the prospects of EU enlargement to the region and the lessons identified from Balkan efforts to remember, build on, and move past contentious histories. 

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our EU Watchlist commentary Helping Keep Bosnia and Herzegovina Together and our report Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties.

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In the first episode of a new season of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Konul De Moor, Crisis Group’s consulting South Caucasus Analyst, about the difficult path toward peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan after Baku gained full control of Karabakh following a lightning offensive in September last year. They discuss the obstacles Baku faces in integrating Karabakh, including managing the return of displaced people and large-scale demining needs. They assess the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, the remaining sticking points to a deal and whether there is still a risk of an armed escalation between the two sides. They unpack the changing role of outside actors in the South Caucasus, including Russia’s struggle to maintain a foothold in the region and prospects for normalisation between Türkiye and Armenia. They also explore what roles Western powers can play in bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to a peace agreement. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Jeremy Shapiro, U.S. Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, about what the possible outcomes of the U.S. presidential election could mean for the future of transatlantic relations and European security. They weigh Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ competing views about NATO and the value of multilateral alliances. They assess how European leaders can prepare for a more transactional Washington should Trump return to office and whether they can expect continuity of President Biden’s Atlanticist foreign policy if Harris is elected. They also discuss the extent to which far-right leaders in Europe would benefit from a second Trump presidency and how each candidate would go about finding an end to the war in Ukraine. 

For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our President’s Take The EU Awaits the U.S. Vote as Conflicts Rage and our Ripple Effect podcast on the U.S. elections.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera to discuss Georgia’s contested parliamentary elections and the prospects for the country and its breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They look at what explains the electoral success of the ruling Georgian Dream party, what’s behind allegations of vote rigging and why the opposition has struggled to mobilise its support base in the aftermath of the polls. They explore Tbilisi’s shifting relations with Moscow and Brussels, focusing on why the war in Ukraine and politics in the South Caucasus have driven Georgia away from the project of Western integration. They also examine the recent unrest in Abkhazia, the complicated relations among Georgia, the breakaway regions and Russia, and the EU’s future as a mediator and monitor in the region. 

For more, check out Joshua’s New York Times op-ed “This Country Turned Against the West, and It’s Not Coming Back”, Crisis Group’s commentary “Georgia: How to Tread Carefully and Preserve the EU’s Diplomatic Role” and our Georgia country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lisa Musiol, head of EU affairs to discuss the challenges facing the new European Commission. They ask what the appointment of more right-leaning commissioners might mean for its policy direction and discuss the priorities of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and the future of European defence policy. They examine how the EU is preparing for a second Trump administration and the prospect of Washington reducing its defence commitments to Europe. They also discuss the EU’s evolving global role and whether it can manage to adapt to a fast-changing world order. 

Note: This podcast episode was recorded prior to the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and thus does not address events in that country and their repercussions.

For more, check out the latest update to our EU-Watch List and our Europe and Central Asia program page. 

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Lucian Kim, Crisis Group’s Senior Ukraine analyst, about his new book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”. They reflect on Lucian’s decades-long career as a journalist covering pivotal political events in Russia and Ukraine, from Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan protests to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They explore Moscow’s increasingly strained relations with Kyiv and Western capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shift from a pragmatic leader to an increasingly authoritarian strongman, and what led to his decision to launch the deadliest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. They also discuss which lessons Western policymakers should draw to better engage with Ukraine and Russia to secure European security in the future.

For more, be sure to check out Lucian’s book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”, our latest Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page. 

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specialising in Ukrainian and Russian military affairs. They reflect on the developments along Ukraine’s frontlines in 2024, the challenges Ukraine’s and Russia’s armed forces have faced, including high equipment losses as well as shortages of personnel and ammunition, and how the war might evolve in the year ahead. They discuss the implications of the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces in the Kursk region and look at how the new U.S. administration under President Donald Trump might affect the war. They speculate on the potential consequences for Ukraine’s military capabilities if Washington cuts back on weapons aid to Kyiv and whether Europe can muster the resources to fill the gap. They also explore how Ukraine’s and Russia’s armies might evolve in the coming years. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out Michael’s podcast, The Russia Contingency, and Crisis Group’s Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Berkay Mandıracı, Crisis Group’s senior Türkiye analyst, about Ankara’s evolving role in Syria following the Assad regime’s collapse and about the apparent progress of efforts to resolve the conflict between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). They examine Türkiye’s relations with Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham, the new rulers in Syria, and what Ankara stands to gain from the shifting political landscape in its neighbouring country. They assess the situation in north-eastern Syria, where tensions remain high between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). They also discuss whether the latest attempts to end the decades-long conflict between Türkiye and the PKK have a real chance of success, as well as Ankara’s regional ambitions amid rapidly changing security dynamics in Europe.

For more, check out Berkay’s latest op-ed, co-authored with colleague Dareen Khalifa, “Turkey’s tightrope in post-Assad Syria”, and Crisis Group’s page “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, and our Europe & Central Asia and Middle East regional pages.

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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East. 

For more, check out our report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Crisis Group’s Latin America program director Renata Segura and senior Colombia analyst Elizabeth Dickinson. They unpack the evolving landscape of narcotics trafficking in Latin America and how the violent crime it fuels is affecting communities across the continent. They explore why, more than 50 years after the U.S. declared a “war on drugs”, law enforcement efforts to dismantle criminal networks have failed to deliver lasting results. They also discuss how the EU can support its Latin American partners in pursuing alternative strategies to curb drug-related violence beyond military-led crackdowns, at a time when such crime is also rising in European cities.

For more, check out our recent report “Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots”, our visual explainer “How a New Drug Trafficking Landscape Fuels Violence in Latin America”, and our Latin America regional page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann to unpack how aspiring authoritarian leaders transform democracies into autocratic governments and whether democratic erosion in Western democracies is, in fact, a trend. They discuss how such leaders concentrate power and systematically weaken democratic institutions. They also explore the role of ideology in authoritarian systems and how these regimes differ from totalitarian forms of governance. Finally, they delve into how democratic resilience can be fostered and what can be done to reverse democratic backsliding.

For more, check out our Europe and Central Asia regional page.

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Central Asia is no exception to the protests that have emerged with renewed vigour on a global scale, a phenomenon made more visible against the backdrop of COVID-19 restrictions. 

Although the grievances driving them are context-specific, deep socio-political divisions and populist leaders are recurring themes, says Dr. Erica Marat. A professor at the U.S. National Defense University and a post-Soviet security expert, she joins Olga and Hugh to discuss what connections can be drawn between collective action and protest-policing dynamics spanning the U.S., Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. 

Central Asian regimes bear the legacy of the Soviet era, and yet even the most autocratic among them are in constant adaptation, borrowing tactics from around the world to survive. Protest movements are evolving in the same way. Erica shares her findings of these trends, explaining the rise of ‘uncivil’ society, who the so-called “Kyrgyz Trump” is, and why Kazakhstan is a repatriation model for ISIS-affiliated citizens. 

For more information:

Explore Crisis Group’s regional analysis on our Central Asia page 

Erica Marat, The Politics of Police Reform: Society against the State in Post-Soviet Countries, Oxford University Press

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Libya has been in a near constant state of war since Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was toppled back in 2011, morphing into local conflicts between pro- and anti-Islamists. On 4 April last year, forces commanded by General Haftar laid siege to Tripoli, the home of the internationally recognised government. Fighting on the city’s outskirts has been terribly destructive. Meanwhile weapons continue to flow into the country from foreign backers.

The onset of COVID-19 has not broken the diplomatic paralysis that pervades the conflict. UN Security Council members are divided, NATO countries support different sides and the EU’s focus on migration has hampered its ability to develop any coordinated, effective response. The UN call for a global ceasefire to mobilise against the pandemic was followed by an upsurge of fighting around Tripoli.

Claudia Gazzini joins Hugh and Olga on War & Peace this week to discuss realities on the ground, the role of foreign powers and much more. Tune in now!

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As the end of the transitional period and negotiations for Britain to leave the EU draws near, a ‘no-deal’ or a very limited deal is increasingly likely. Even if a deal is reached, it will be far from a comprehensive framework on how to integrate the two trading systems and contentious issues are likely going to be kicked into next year. Future negotiations could spill over into important areas such as defence and security. 

Lord Mark Malloch-Brown joins Olga and Hugh for the first episode of a new season to discuss what both a ‘no-deal’ and a limited deal would mean for the future relationship between the UK and the EU, as well as their respective relationships with other actors such as the U.S., NATO and Russia. They also discuss Malloch-Brown’s work as chair for the Best for Britain campaign to keep Britain in Europe, what Brexit tells us about the state of global politics and what must change to better address the concerns of today. 

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The prospect of a Biden administration brings new opportunities for European security and foreign policy, but many challenges remain. Joining Olga and Hugh to discuss the evolution of U.S.-Europe relations and its impact on the world is Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and Special Adviser to EU High Representative Josep Borrell.

The EU is tethered in some ways to U.S. leadership, but not entirely, says Nathalie. Developing its internal strengths will be key to a greater impact on the conflicts and crises unfolding within its sphere of influence. 

A steady decline in the American-centred liberal world order has meanwhile made way for competing visions of the values and principles that underpin global politics. Where does this leave European hopes that a Biden administration will strengthen multilateralism? 

Tune in to find out!

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One hour after 34 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, Syria’s last rebel-held bastion, Turkey opened its borders to Greece, prompting thousands of migrants to head for the frontier in the hope of crossing into Europe. 

Berkay Mandıracı, Crisis Group’s Turkey expert and our guest on War & Peace, sheds light on what triggered Ankara’s decision, what implications it could have on the fragile 2016 migration deal with the EU and what can be done at this critical moment to strengthen rapidly declining EU-Turkey relations.

One thing is clear: as the humanitarian situation on the Turkey-Greece border and in Idlib deteriorates and the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic grows, cooperation between the EU and Turkey is growing ever more urgent. Joint work to help refugees and migrants is the most promising place to restart it.

For more information, see Berkay’s recent commentary: Sharing the Burden: Revisiting the EU-Turkey Migration Deal

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While the threat of imminent nuclear armageddon may not be at the forefront of the average person’s mind today, it was a real, globe-spanning fear not so long ago during the Cold War. Absent the treaties and confidence-building measures developed to mitigate the risk of such an event, U.S. and Soviet civil defense then was totally consumed with the daunting task of planning for the worst.

So how does a state prepare for the event of a nuclear attack? How do you ensure continuity of government in a country laid waste? How conscious are ordinary citizens of this reality and how involved are they in preparedness efforts?

Olga and Hugh debate these all-important questions from the peak of their salience to now with Edward Geist, a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and the Soviet Union, and Ivan Kalugin, Moscow-based researcher and Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) affiliate. Together they discuss how the two superpowers went about tackling them, from the survivability of essential infrastructure and public information campaigns to the logic of mutually assured destruction and the rumored existence of automatic launching systems known as the ‘Dead Hand’.  

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Last week, for the very first time in Crisis Group's history, we published a statement on the events unfolding in the U.S. The murder of George Floyd, an unarmed African American man, triggered protests across the country against structural inequality. Similar protests have since erupted around the world as many countries reckon with their own histories of entrenched racial discrimination. 

Dan Schneiderman, Crisis Group’s Head of Advocacy and Research for the U.S., joins Hugh and Olga to discuss the meaning of these recent events. They look at the militarisation of the police, the impact the protests will have on the U.S.'s global credibility, and their potential to bring about the systemic change being demanded.

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