Unexpected Points (Kevin Cole)

Aaron Reiss of The Athletic joins the show to talk Deshaun Watson trade discussions, the Texans' coaching candidates, if Jared Goff is worth top QB money, and previews of the conference championships.

Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week.

Kevin review the Week 5 results, breaks down his game grades and goes over a successful week of best bets.

Kevin goes through recent PFF research of the effect of perfect coverage, gives the pluses and minuses of different QB stats and talks about the conflicts of politics on social media for sports reporters.

Kevin reviews Vikings-Steelers, discusses the Belichick-McDermott discourse and gives a few best bets for this Sunday.

PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan, to talk DFS and the origins of Establish the Run (01:41). Also on this episode, Kev and Adam discuss DFS strategy (06:04), what to expect early on in the 2020 NFL season from a DFS standpoint (25:54).

Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics.

Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm.

Kevin reviews an ugly TNF matchup and gives his best bets for this weekend's matchups.

PFF's salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to discuss the Chiefs' mistakes in the Super Bowl and look across the landscape of QB-needy teams to figure out who should land where.

Kevin reviews the games from Week 13.

Kaelen Jones of the Ringer NFL joins Kevin to go over the bad decisions from Conference Championship Sunday, why Aaron Rodgers' legacy took a huge hit, and if Patrick Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Plus, they explore how much value Matthew Stafford provides teams needing a QB to get over the hump.

Kevin goes through the results and advanced stats for the Week 12 slate of games.

PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run co-founder Evan Silva to draft teams and find their super bowl winner.

Kevin reviews and the numbers and grades for Sunday Week 8.

Kevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers.

Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic joins the show to discuss on the J.J. Watt acquisition shifts the balance of power in the NFC West, plus his reporting on Russ Wilson's dissatisfaction with the Seahawks and what it means for their future together.

Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience.

Kevin reviews all the Week 8 NFL action using his adjusted scores, advanced stats and PFF grades.

Kevin and Josh give their best ideals for the NFL that media and football guys would consider cancellable.

Kevin reviews all the relevant numbers and adjusted scores for Sunday's action

David Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere.

Kevin and Ryan Paganetti talk through the details of Chiefs vs Browns, including how the Browns played better than their numbers, and Kevin Stefanski had perfect decision-making. Plus, why the Patriots are unvalued after a Week 1 loss in a game where they outplayed the Dolphins.

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday.

Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason.

00:00 Intro

01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley

03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup

04:15 Does the preseason matter

08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc

20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 1

23:45 Running back review

30:22 Wide receiver review

39:25 Tight end review

Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent. 

Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11.

Kevin review the Week 9 slate and his adjusted scores and best bet results.

Kevin reviews Week 7 and his adjusted scores, providing insights into teams that were better or worse than many think. Plus, he puts a few fan bases on notice for excuse making and getting ahead of themselves.

Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show.

Kevin talks to JJ Zachariason, editor-in-chief at FanDuel, about his 15 bold predictions, including Trey Lance being a top-5 quarterback, Najee Harris being a top-8 running back and DeVonta Smith leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy.

Kevin goes through the unexpected winners and losers of the 2022 NFL draft.

Kevin breaks down the TNF performances and why Sam Darnold is thriving in Joe Brady's system, plus he goes through the most important stats and trends for every Week 2 matchup.

Kevin reviews MNF and previews TNF between the Broncos and Colts.

Kevin goes through what we heard from Andrew Berry, Deshaun Watson and the Browns owners in their first public appearances after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson.

Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension

Kevin breaks down the latest tape vs analytics war on social media, which he helped start by posting an interview with Titans GM Jon Robinson where he sounded skeptical of analytics value. Plus, answering listener questions.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 Pre-roll, Intro music

01:07 Details on the pod, QB GOAT Preview

02:37 Jon Robinson's misguided view on analytics

12:30 Kwesi Adofo-Mensa's holistic view on analytics

17:51 Is Robinson a great GM?

27:50 Mailbag

PFF's Kevin Cole welcomes ESPN's Seth Walder to discuss the NFL's opening weekend and which current narratives he's buying or selling after one week of action (2:04). Kevin and Seth also discuss the methodology behind Seth's now infamous Aaron Donald take (56:02).  

Kevin counts down the final five greatest statistical QBs of all time.  

00:00 Episode Intro/Preview 02:00 #10-#6 Recap 09:00 #5: Drew Brees 18:55 #4: Dan Marino 27:48 #3 Otto Graham 36:57 #2 Peyton Manning 57:51 #1 Tom Brady  

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Kevin discusses if the NFL's can fix the broken hiring process for minority coaches, plus a comparison of Tom Brady to GOATs of other sports, and why his career arc is so different.

Matthew Freedman of the Action Network parses what's important to pay attention to predicting the NFL draft and which draft props have the highest expected returns.

Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup. 

Kevin is joined by PFF's Ben Brown to talk through all the Week 14 action from an analytical perspective.

Kevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents.

Kevin goes through all Sunday's action with the advanced stats and grades.

Kevin Cole is joined by Sheil Kapadia, senior NFL writer to talk Eagles, Seahawks, Hurts replacing Carson Wentz, what Jeffrey Lurie thinks & much more.

Kevin discusses the news from the previous week, with a focus on what the mainstream narratives might be missing.

ESPN NFL Analyst Mina Kimes joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss all the latest NFL news including Dwayne Haskins' benching and Bill O'Brien's ousting in Houston (3:25). Also on this episode, Mina and Kevin hand out some awards a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season (24:21). 

Kevin Cole is joined by FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s Josh Hermsmeyer again to talk about the Eagles tanking situation, GM's and head coaches across the NFL and much more in this weeks episode of Unexpected Points.

(0:00-16:02) Wentz injury/Impact on the Colts moving forward and potential new faces at QB (16:03-25:04) Nick Chubb’s New contact and the Significance it has on the Browns salary cap (25:05-33:43) “Stick to Sports”  Kevin discusses his thoughts on Simone Biles decision to not compete in Olympics (33:43-43:09) New Segment, “When keeping real goes Wrong" Does the salary cap add parody to the NFL?

(43:10-53:45) Kevin breaks down PFF’s Expected Fantasy Point Tool and how you can use it in your analysis ahead of fantasy drafts

PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run Director of Analytics Michael Leone to talk DFS analysis.

Kevin goes through his post-draft models looking at the likelihood of NFL success for 2022 WRs and RBs.

Kevin details why some of the grades from the TNF matchup may not match consensus perception and goes through each remaining Week 2 game with a few stats and trends to watch.

Jim Sannes of FanDuel and numberFire joins the pod to talk about his quarterback prospect model and what it says about the 2022 class.

Kevin discussed why we overestimate the leverage NFL players have to force trades, why draft reaches and a thing but steals aren't, and the value betting on Najee Harris for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Kevin Cole is joined by Marcel Louis-Jacques to take a deep dive into the Buffalo Bills to discuss the coaching situation and the front office.

Kevin and Ben review all the stats and narratives around the Division round.

Film Analyst & Football Writer Jake Burns joins Kevin to talk film breakdown, the state of the Cleveland Browns, taking a broader look at the QB position and where Baker Mayfield fits in.

PFF cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins the pod to wrap up the first week of free agency, highlighting the best and worst moves and what it all means going forward.

In the first annual Unexpected Points Haters Ball, Kevin hates on a few things that have come across his radar in the last several weeks.

Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season.

Ben Brown joins Kevin to break down all the numbers and narratives behind the Conference Championships.

Kevin discusses the implications of the Watson settlement.

Kevin looks over the greatest tight end career to decide if Rob Gronkowski is the greatest of them all. Plus, words of wisdom from Mike Tomlin and an update on a potential indefinite suspension for Deshaun Watson.

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets.

Kevin walks through the Week 6 results, why Derrick Henry is valuable but not the MVP, if Belichick has lost his mojo, and why the Cardinals are not quite the best team in the NFL just yet.

Kevin goes through all the numbers for the practical costs and Super Bowl probability impacts of the big NFL trades.

JJ Zachariason of numberFire joins the pod to rank the 2021 rookie wide receiver class and explain why he's higher on Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall than the consensus.

Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL.

Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes.

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.

Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward.

Kevin breaks down the winner and losers of a trade-filled first round.

0:01 Intro

6:22 AJ Brown Traded to the Eagles

14:52 Hollywood Brown Traded to Cardinals

18:20 Only Kenny Pickett Drafted in Round 1

22:19 WR Drafted in Round 1

25:59 Steals & Reaches in Round 1

Kevin Cole is joined by Benjamin Solak, Senior CFB Writer from The Draft Network to talk about the loss of Doug Pederson, how it will affect the Eagles and much more.

Kevin and Ben break down the week of NFL action with all the numbers behind the final scores.

Kevin review TNF 49ers-Titans game, goes through his analysis on points added for non-QBs and gives some best bets for the weekend.

Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action.

Kevin talks to Adam Beard, Cubs Director of High Performance, about the lessons learned with his time in a similar role with the Browns and how sports science has impacted the NFL.

Kevin reviews the thrilling Packers victory where the Cardinals were probably the better team, plus a few best bets from the Falcons-Panthers, Bills-Dolphins and Saints-Bucs games.

Kevin and Ben break down the two paths the Vikings can take this offseason, plus previews of the Wild Card round.

PFF's Kevin Cole sits down with FiveThirtyEight and Establish the Run's Josh Hermsmeyer to talk Josh's famous Air Yards model (2:30) and statistical trends through 3 weeks of the NFL season (11:30). Kev and Josh also discuss some of their favorite under the radar Week 4 NFL fantasy football plays (18:15) and which teams could represent the AFC and NFC in Super Bowl LV (28:23). 

Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022.

0:00 Intro

02:49 What is a professional sports bettor? Why have a public presence

14:18 What is betstamp?

33:25 Does a positive record mean someone is a good bettor?

40:38 2022 Betting Preview

47:10 High on the Eagles

54:15 Low on the Bears

57:44 High on the Saints

1:04:35 Low on the Giants

1:10:24 Figuring out the Browns

1:14:25 Figuring out the Patriots

1:17:50 Figuring out the Cardinals

1:21:50 Figuring out the 49ers

Kevin talks with former game mangement coach Ryan Paganetti about his time working with Chip Kelly and Doug Pederson, he takes us inside the booth and behind the scenes on how coaches view analytics, plus we discuss a few great stories, including Doug Pederson wanting to be  a little too aggressive in the Super Bowl.

What has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30)

Kevin talks about the ramifications of Brady's return, the Vikings taking the right path with Cousins and why he's particularly troubled by the discourse around Deshaun Watson.

PFF's Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to talk through all the GM and coaching hires, and what to expect in the coming week.

Kevin breaks down the TNF matchup, who the Jags should hire as head coach and Week 15 best bets.

Ben Baldwin joins kevin to discuss the Seahawks future and the divisional round matchups.

Kevin goes solo talking through every teams drafts, with a focus on positional value, trading down and why more humility is needed in draft evaluation. Plus, he talks about the dangers of the GM as super scout.

Kevin reviews the numbers behind the Super Bowl and looks ahead at the implications for this offseason and next year.

Kevin discusses the difference in good and bad answers on running the ball from new coaches and whether Aaron Rodgers is too conservative in the playoffs.

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/

The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.

Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully).

Kevin goes through all the numbers of a bad beat TNF contest between the Bucs and Eagles, plus his best bets for the rest of the Week 6 slate.

Kevin reviews an awful TNF game and looks forward to this weekend's action.

Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11.

Kevin talks with ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques about the Mike McDaniel hire, Tua's ceiling and a potential big-spending offseason for the Miami Dolphins.

Kevin reviews the advanced stats from TNF, discusses a groundbreaking PFF study and gives his best bets for Week 13.

Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports and creator of the Reception Perception wide receiver rating system join the show to go through the vaunted 2021 free agency class, which receivers teams should prioritize, and why Curtis Samuel could break out in new surroundings.

Kevin discusses his new research that shows strong value for the top NFL runners, but still leaves questions about paying them big money. Plus, how the Josh Allen extension shifts the extension market for Baker and Lamar, and a handful of WRs you need in every fantasy draft.