Top Traders Unplugged (Niels Kaastrup-Larsen)
Explore every episode of Top Traders Unplugged
| Pub. Date | Title | Duration | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug 2023 | IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills | 01:00:26 | |||||
Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book 10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"? 15:46 - The Cloud Revolution 21:44 - Collecting data with AI 28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used? 36:05 - Designing material with AI 40:08 - Getting more out of technology 48:43 - Working with robots 52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care 57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights... | |||||||
| 10 Apr 2023 | TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management | 01:09:25 | |||||
Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Episode Timestamps: 02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management 03:46 - Their investment philosophy 10:00 - A period of challenges 13:26 - Believing in change 15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about? 23:02 - Looking back in time 30:42 - The role of short-term trading 38:56 - What drives short-term trading? 42:47 - Being smart with execution 46:09 - Dealing with the downsides 53:53 - Studying the markets 55:49 - The dangers of machine... | |||||||
| 14 Aug 2024 | ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson | 01:04:39 | |||||
Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow John on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson 05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds? 08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment 11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past? 13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations 18:13 - More art than science 19:15 - Define your objectives clearly 20:51 - A... | |||||||
| 24 Dec 2022 | SI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1) | 01:13:20 | |||||
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have to be open to imagine the unimaginable, what the future might hold for the Crypto space and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Mark on Twitter. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:14 - Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators? 14:16 - The perfect year for trend following? 25:52 - The wrong kind of volatility? 31:04 - Trend vs. Tail Hedge 43:04 - What is happening with volatility? 50:38 - What did we learn from the year 2022? 01:00:40 - The... | |||||||
| 22 Jul 2023 | SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker | 01:14:07 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately? 04:38 - Industry performance update 05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing 10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be? 13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from? 16:35 - The best approach to trading markets 23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks 27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading 30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase? 33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities? 40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets? 44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble? 46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees 52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees 54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things? 01:08:52 -... | |||||||
| 27 Mar 2023 | TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica | 01:20:48 | |||||
Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Quantica Capital. Episode Timestamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital 05:04 - Their investment philosophy 12:31 - What makes them unique? 17:09 - Reacting to trends 19:43 - Why not do it the easy way? 23:33 - Looking Sharpe 30:34 - When Correlations go to "1" 35:12 - Dealing with shocks 39:02 - The measurement methodologies 43:14 - The role of correlation 46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls 53:09 - Important... | |||||||
| 25 May 2024 | Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne | 01:02:54 | |||||
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:01 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart? 09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care? 11:52 - What is neoliberalism? 12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape 19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose? 22:42 - Industry performance update 25:39 - What is going on with quant macro? 32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze? 34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently? 37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey? 39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha? 47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay 49:46 | |||||||
| 19 Jun 2024 | OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN | 00:51:18 | |||||
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Joseph on LinkedIn. Follow Michael on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein 05:52 - How did they learn about trend following? 14:18 - The perfect match? 15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays? 16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the... | |||||||
| 27 Aug 2022 | SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker | 01:16:15 | |||||
Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:51 - Summary of the week 08:35 - Industry performance update 12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies 26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager 33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal 46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following 51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio 01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles 01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability 01:14:33 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are... | |||||||
| 26 Mar 2022 | SI185: Trend Following in a De-Globalised World | 01:18:29 | |||||
Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:10 - Market recap 04:41 - What has caught Mark’s attention recently? 13:46 - Overview of the week 18:28 - Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on trending performance? 30:45 - Trend Following, globalization and the Dark Ages 47:15 - What happened at LME? 59:18 - Fidelity, Edward Johnson and the Kaizen philosophy 01:14:29 - Update on performance Resources discussed in this Episode: | |||||||
| 04 Apr 2021 | SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker | 01:05:00 | |||||
Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:46 - Macro recap from Niels 04:34 - Weekly review of returns 46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks? 49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’? Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation? 57:16 - Q4; Nick: Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile? 01:00:07 - Performance recap 01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week. Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3... | |||||||
| 18 Nov 2021 | VOL04: Profiting from Short-Term Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta | 01:14:33 | |||||
Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jason on Twitter. ----- Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:09 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio? 04:09 - How do you overcome the problem of getting better but not wanting to tinker too much? 11:03 - How has recent market behaviour affected your approach to volatility trading? 22:05 - What is the average duration of your long volatility trades? 28:02 - How do you weight recent data versus long-term data? 31:07 - How do you look at trading intra-day VIX contracts? 37:39 - What gave you... | |||||||
| 21 Dec 2022 | GM31: The Art of Volatility Investing ft. Dave Dredge | 01:20:16 | |||||
Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Dave on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:00 - About Dave and his work 06:04 - Are big pension funds failing? 11:21 - A fragile world 19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity 25:20 - What does cheap actually mean? 34:23 - What might be next for volatility 41:43 - The next Korean ship builder? 46:19 - Is forecasting pointless? 51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life 59:37 - | |||||||
| 16 Oct 2024 | GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave | 01:02:17 | |||||
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Louis on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave 03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point? 09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow? 13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy 19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity 24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming? 28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon? 36:48 -... | |||||||
| 28 Aug 2024 | GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin | 01:01:30 | |||||
Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Peter on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation? 07:29 - Signs of weakness? 09:31 - The key indicators of weakness 12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy? 15:26 - Assessing the savings rate 17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy 20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now? 22:00 - Challenges in the banking system 24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind... | |||||||
| 28 Feb 2024 | ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen | 01:05:23 | |||||
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Peter on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm 06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized? 09:16 - Their investment philosophy 14:33 - A skepticism about equities? 17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them? 21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities? 25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets 28:20 - Where lies the most risk? 30:25 - Opportunities... | |||||||
| 29 Mar 2023 | IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar | 01:00:11 | |||||
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book 11:42 - What will the new world bring? 17:01 - The problems with Big Food 21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn? 28:08... | |||||||
| 25 Dec 2021 | SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich | 01:28:12 | |||||
We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Rob on Twitter. Follow Mark on Twitter. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 -... | |||||||
| 05 Mar 2022 | SI182: Trend Following in Times of Crises ft. Rob Carver | 01:25:07 | |||||
Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:15 - Update on markets 05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance 27:08 - Status on Rob’s book 29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding? 34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy? 39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor? 46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any... | |||||||
| 21 Jan 2023 | SI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard Brennan | 01:25:03 | |||||
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why everything ultimately moves towards an equilibrium condition where everything stops and how it can be corrected through math, the importance of understanding how a system operates before applying math and that everything is process driven, how Richard thinks of risk in an uncertain world and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:34 - Thoughts on new mini series 09:46 - Battleship still floating? 11:56 - Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting 18:12 - Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process 31:27 - Uncertainty rather than certainty 49:38 - Why not focus on other trends? 56:44 - Outliers - features of liquid markets? 01:03:28 - Everything is a process 01:12:21 - Managing risk in an uncertain world 01:21:24 - Thanks... | |||||||
| 11 Sep 2024 | IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak | 00:58:46 | |||||
Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson 03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book? 05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk 09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings? 11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm 15:15 - The new area of tightness 18:27 - It is all about labour cost 23:46 - The deflationary power of technology 26:46 - The outlook of the labour market 32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of... | |||||||
| 19 Jul 2023 | GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan | 01:19:46 | |||||
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow David on Twitter. Follow Paul on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan 13:58 - The current state of Syria 18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts 24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable? 27:13 - The challenges that China is facing 29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy? 32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing? 35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference 44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics 50:57 - The risk of complex technology 56:05 - How do... | |||||||
| 11 Oct 2023 | ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski | 01:04:00 | |||||
Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Troy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski 11:36 - A top-down macro perspective 19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio 26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate? 30:47 - Analyzing the alt space 35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate 40:00 - An overweight of privates? 44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done? 46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space 52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio 55:09 - Is old... | |||||||
| 25 Sep 2022 | SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:05:34 | |||||
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:23 - Key events from this week? 11:15 - Industry performance update 16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event? 25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies 39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets 44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market 49:29 - Is the panic yet to come? 55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty 01:03:15 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights... | |||||||
| 23 Sep 2023 | SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne | 01:02:37 | |||||
Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently? 04:55 - Industry performance update 08:16 - Living with high public debt 20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt 24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved 32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets? 37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions? 40:36 - Where returns may go from here? 48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies? 51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event 59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes 01:00:29 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my... | |||||||
| 25 May 2022 | GM16: Central Banking in a De-Globalized World ft. Joseph Wang | 01:11:15 | |||||
Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected to corporate wellness, how the FED and other Central Banks have focused on the wrong things for the last few decades, exorbitant privilege and whether the FED is starting to lose control, safe assets and ways to preserve capital, cryptocurrencies, strength of the Dollar and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Joseph on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:13 - Joseph’s background 06:34 - Shocking FED Announcement 10:52 - Central Bank policies 14:11 - Monetary policies and liquidity 30:40 - Fed paper suggesting they don't know where Inflation comes from 40:03 - The wider consequences 45:45 - FED losing control? 53:55 - Safe assets and crypto 01:05:01 - What keeps Joseph up at night? 01:09:52 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that... | |||||||
| 01 Mar 2023 | GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson | 00:56:22 | |||||
Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Nicky on LinkedIn Episode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science 09:42 - The major players in the energy markets 12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial 18:43 - Forecasting the flow 25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas? 27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets 30:22 - Risk considerations 32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action 34:28 - Measuring demand 36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research 39:46 - Oil on... | |||||||
| 27 Apr 2024 | SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan | 00:58:40 | |||||
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has been on our radar recently? 02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment? 03:11 - Industry performance update 05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX? 12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro 18:09 - Important market development recently? 31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios 35:48 - The structure of markets 42:23 - Are rate cuts coming? 48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative 53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump 56:49 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways | |||||||
| 26 Jan 2022 | VOL09: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell | 01:05:19 | |||||
Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow David on Twitter. ----- Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting? 04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how? 07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data? 12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the... | |||||||
| 11 Jul 2021 | SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker | 01:08:31 | |||||
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 02:02 - Macro recap from Niels 12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy? 31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’? 40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer? 47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance 58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves... | |||||||
| 30 Jan 2022 | SI177: The Value of Price ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:16:54 | |||||
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:36 – Macro recap from Niels 06:22 – Weekly review of performance 15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over... | |||||||
| 06 Mar 2023 | TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners | 01:09:39 | |||||
Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more. DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about DG Partners. Episode Timestamps: 02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners 03:38 - Their road to trend following 12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following 16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 19:10 - The dual mandate 22:51 - The trend following narrative 27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following 30:24 - Need for speed? 38:13 - How many markets do they trade? 40:16 - Rethinking volatility? 43:01 - Their execution process 44:00 - Their... | |||||||
| 20 Jun 2021 | SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:18:02 | |||||
Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 02:32 – Macro recap from Niels 06:19 – Weekly review of performance 16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures? 31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline? 35:33 – Q3;... | |||||||
| 18 Sep 2024 | GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg | 01:19:15 | |||||
This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Adam on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Catching up 05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke? 12:58 - The state of the metal sector 22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading 28:41 - Getting the timing right 42:51 - It's all about volatility 44:38 - Playing the long game 47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong? 52:40 - A carry trade bubble 54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper? 01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down? 01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast 01:08:40 -... | |||||||
| 16 Jul 2022 | SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan | 01:23:49 | |||||
Today, Richard Brennan tackle lots of great questions from listeners as to why Trend Following works, why trends occur in markets and why it is best to exploit them using a systematic approach, the idea of doing Trend Following on Trend Following using the TTU trend barometer. We also discuss different ways of looking at leverage in your portfolio, pros and cons of using stops and different approaches to applying volatility targeting. Lastly, we discuss why it can be beneficial to trade more than one Trend Following system, the issues that can occur when using the same system for a diversified composite, how to avoid the anxiety associated with building drawdowns and finally we address recent statements made that CTAs may be not be well positioned should we enter into a recession. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:03 - Update on recent market and economic news? 08:36 - Industry Performance update 10:28 - Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work? 22:57 - Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following 29:50 - Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA? 35:43 - Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting 54:51 - Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system 58:44 - Using the same systems for a diversified portfolio 01:06:12 - Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns 01:13:22 - Comments on... | |||||||
| 21 Sep 2024 | SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:10:30 | |||||
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:18 - Industry performance update 09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry? 16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine 18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech 23:39 - The KuU framework 29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts 38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers 47:05 - Working with the 3 C's 57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?" 01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt | |||||||
| 01 Mar 2025 | SI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy Kaminski | 01:03:28 | |||||
In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:50 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:09 - Industry performance update 13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems? 18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year? 25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors? 28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”? 32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following? 36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it 44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication 50:58 - The pitfalls of replication... | |||||||
| 15 Jul 2023 | SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver | 01:07:00 | |||||
Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Update of the week 07:50 - Industry performance update 10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system? 18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea? 28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4? 34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems 40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what! 45:12 - Trading safely 52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space 57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew 01:05:04 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know... | |||||||
| 06 May 2023 | SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:08:28 | |||||
Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell? 10:59 - Industry performance update 14:07 - Global macro meets trend following? 19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour 25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness 30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets 34:31 - It takes two to crisis 39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization? 41:56 - Is price all we need? 50:55 - Why do we need machine learning? 56:39 - Words of estimative probability 01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is 01:02:58 - Skew in trend following 01:05:38 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in | |||||||
| 15 Jun 2022 | GM19: Brace Yourself for Dramatic Market Moves ft. Peter Atwater | 01:17:54 | |||||
In today’s episode, Peter Atwater, author and adjunct professor of Economics at William & Mary, joins us to discuss socionomics and why media is a great mirror of mood, how confidence in Central Banks relates to the level of interest rates, “stacked vulnerability” and how it runs the potential of creating exhaustion, inequality and the battle between the top and the bottom of society. We also discuss how the current inflation creates false expectations and why we might see a violent move in market prices, how deglobalization is a consequence of a change in social mood, ways to implement a more confidence driven decision making investment strategy and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Peter on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:05 - Peter’s background 05:36 - Why socionomics is important to understand and follow 14:27 - How to determine the Confidence in Central Banks 17:26 - Accumulated exhaustion, what this means 25:35 - Crypto - a betrayal? 37:55 - Expected and Un-Expected Inflation - a sign of Scarcity 46:01 - A potential massive market Cycle Top? 51:33 - Heading towards deglobalization 01:02:54 - Global Fragmentation 01:12:24 - Confident decision making 01:16:21 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights... | |||||||
| 25 Oct 2024 | SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver | 01:21:33 | |||||
Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has caught our attention recently? 05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon? 09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked 10:37 - An economic Kayfabe 13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment? 18:44 - Industry performance update 20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system? 25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day? 26:13 - Q1.2... | |||||||
| 17 Apr 2023 | TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management | 01:04:23 | |||||
Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Metori Capital Management. Episode Timestamps: 02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management 04:08 - Their investment philosophy 09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe 18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program 21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations 24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe 27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters 30:18 - Their view on replication 32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers 35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets 39:30 - The risk of alternative markets 41:29 - Looking beyond China 42:18 -... | |||||||
| 26 Oct 2022 | GM26: Out with the FED Put & In with the OIL Put ft. Adam Rozencwajg | 00:52:10 | |||||
Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time primarily focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors are changing their trading behaviour to adapt to the crisis, the impact of the rise of the emerging market middle class and the challenges of structural inflation. We also address how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the energy crisis and how some conspiracy theorists believe that all this conflict is tied together, how the energy crisis affects the American Mid-Term Election and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Adam on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:06 - The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply 13:02 - Adam’s perspective on the demand side 21:57 - Blame it on the inflation? 29:11 - The opportunities of a divided world 36:50 - Has demand actually decreased? 42:40 - What can go wrong in regards to the election? 51:00 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you... | |||||||
| 03 Oct 2021 | SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver | 01:04:29 | |||||
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:03 - Macro recap from Niels 05:43 - Weekly review of returns 12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks 21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system 26:11... | |||||||
| 26 Apr 2023 | GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan | 01:03:20 | |||||
Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - The big picture macro view 08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls 12:54 - The lag effect 20:31 - The impact of change in demographics 29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound? 38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it? 46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn? 49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class? 52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end? 54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility 57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility 01:01:44 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the... | |||||||
| 31 Jul 2023 | TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital | 01:09:57 | |||||
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Chesapeake Capital. Episode Timestamps: 02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital 07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings 12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy 17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering 22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program 26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters 32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe? 39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process 44:41 - The challenges of working with clients 48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower? 54:21 - Can you be a good... | |||||||
| 19 Jul 2022 | IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan | 00:59:59 | |||||
Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book 07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates? 15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased? 22:31 - Using... | |||||||
| 12 Jun 2022 | SI196: Where Next for Trend Following? ft. Rob Carver | 01:13:01 | |||||
Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss recent events in the world of Trend Following and takes questions from listeners regarding what it takes to do Trend Following full-time and how much capital is needed to do so. We also discuss potential benefits of adding a mean reversion system on a short term time frame and exploring trend following in spreads, what Rob thinks of trading alternative markets, how to mitigate the pain from false breakouts and how to select a universe of stocks to apply your existing rules. Finally, we break down the latest research paper from AHL dealing with the outlook of Trend Following, how Trend Following perform in crisis periods, in periods of rising interest rates and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:14 - Market recap 05:51 - What has caught Rob’s attention recently? 13:35 - Q1, Ben: Going Full-Time a a Trend Follow - How much capital do I need? 22:16 - Q2, Gambit: Should I add a Mean Reversion & Spread Trading model? 31:47 - Q3, Younggotti: Alternative assets and markets - do they help? 36:44 - Q4, FluffyDunny: How to best avoid False Breakouts 39:36 - Q5, Mendel: How to select your universe of stocks to trade 44:37 - AHL Paper: Gaining Momentum - Where Next for Trend Following? 01:07:22 - Bloomberg article 01:10:00 - Industry performance update Resources discussed in this... | |||||||
| 02 Dec 2023 | SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer | 01:14:43 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke". ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:35 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:04 - Industry performance update 08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures? 13:19 - A turn away from trend? 18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication 27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach 33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading 41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees? 48:17 - The great underestimated risk 51:30 - What drives asset flows? 01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track? 01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM 01:11:15 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment... | |||||||
| 02 Feb 2022 | VOL10: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan | 01:22:55 | |||||
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Cem on Twitter. ----- Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work 19:18 - The decision to manage outside money 24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make 30:22 - Feedback loops within markets 34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options 51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods 53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models 57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging 01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices 01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the... | |||||||
| 02 Mar 2024 | SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan | 01:07:38 | |||||
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:06 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:13 - Industry performance update 08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted? 11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets 18:08 - Is the VIX broken? 24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections 30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets? 32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's 39:15 - What is going on with flows? 47:55 - The rise of meme stocks 52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar 59:59 - A wild ride for Japan 01:05:54 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover... | |||||||
| 11 Oct 2022 | IL08: Why The Best Quitters Win ft. Annie Duke | 01:05:49 | |||||
Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest can teach us about quitting, why there are no benefits of “learning the lesson the hard way” and why we tend to quit when it is too late, the importance of having kill criteria and splitting the decision. We also discuss why Duke recommends to keep your approach systematic and why setting goals is not always beneficial, the importance of finding a quitting coach and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Annie on LinkedIn & read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:24 - Introduction to Annie Duke and her book 07:14 - Key takeaways from her book 10:03 - Quitting at the right time 18:08 - Work smarter, not harder 23:04 - Are we overestimating ourselves? 29:57 - Setting rules and making decisions 35:27 - The benefits of splitting... | |||||||
| 09 Apr 2025 | TTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan Dunne | 01:09:44 | |||||
Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Razvan on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital 06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products 18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors 25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio 33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies? 37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective 45:14 - The total portfolio approach 52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies 58:14 - Key advice for working with... | |||||||
| 03 Feb 2024 | SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 00:56:42 | |||||
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:09 - What has caught our interest recently? 02:27 - Industry performance update 06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat 12:14 - The drivers of price 17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period 22:48 - Managers have different personalities 29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance? 32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis 39:32 - More markets = better returns? 44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms 49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles? 54:34 - Thanks for listening Resources discussed in this Episode: | |||||||
| 19 Nov 2022 | SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan | 01:10:20 | |||||
Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:52 - What happened this week? 07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics? 14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)? 16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity 18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff? 18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom? 22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers 30:11 - Asset... | |||||||
| 08 Feb 2023 | GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston | 01:06:52 | |||||
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Rory on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context 07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data? 09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless? 16:43 - Making assumptions 19:38 - The challenges with data 28:36 - Indicators of volatility 32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value 37:02 - Having an edge in oil 45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report 49:17 - Oil price - a play on the... | |||||||
| 16 Mar 2024 | SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski | 00:59:00 | |||||
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - What has been on our radar recently? 03:03 - When are trends coming to an end? 06:24 - Industry performance update 07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry? 11:19 - What attracted her to the industry? 12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator 15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction 20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion? 21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio 24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase? 25:25 - The importance of skewness 31:06 - Mind the timeframe 34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper) 38:15 - No pain, no gain... 43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper) 47:33 - Dealing with a world in... | |||||||
| 17 Feb 2023 | TTU132: Trend Following Evolution ft. Ed Tricker, CIO of Quant Strategies at Graham Capital Management | 01:16:11 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Dr. Edward Tricker, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management, joined Top Traders Unplugged for a discussion on Graham's approach to quantitative macro investing. The discussion touches on a variety of interesting topics including the evolution of trend-following, diversification, portfolio optimization, and "crisis alpha." Dr. Tricker also discusses how Graham partners with investors to help them solve for their specific portfolio needs, as well as why collaboration is critical in his team’s research process and the firm's risk management philosophy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Graham Capital Management. Episode Timestamps: 02:16 - Introduction to Graham Capital Management 04:00 - Their investment philosophy 09:35 - The art of modelling 12:33 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 17:14 - Working together with clients 20:17 - The "real" objective 23:22 - Commodities - A saver in crises? 27:32 - What strategies to add in a 60/40? 32:54 - Their research process 37:28 - Evaluating managers and strategies 40:20 - Regime shifts and changes in markets 44:11 - Recalibrating parameter selection 48:34 - Their approach to look-back and signal generation 54:01 -... | |||||||
| 07 Jan 2023 | TTU122: New Amazing CTA & Managed Futures Series | 00:37:24 | |||||
Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will also take a look into 2023 and discuss our expectations for the year and what we are most excited for in the mini series. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:52 - Setting the stage 03:53 - The idea behind the miniseries 07:48 - What we hope to achieve 11:13 - What are our expectations? 14:43 - The topics that we will discuss 29:25 - When will they be published? 30:34 - What are we most excited for? 35:58 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. | |||||||
| 16 Dec 2023 | SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas | 01:06:10 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:10 - What's been on our radar recently? 05:09 - Industry performance update 06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead? 17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used? 25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility? 33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends 42:19 - Know when to be long and short 45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation 52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough 57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio 01:03:57 - Thanks for listening Resources discussed in this Episode: | |||||||
| 27 Dec 2023 | GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters | 00:59:07 | |||||
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters 05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running? 06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro 11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve 15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt? 19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot 22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias 24:11 - The... | |||||||
| 04 May 2022 | GM13: The Decline of the Dollar & Prepping for the Worst ft. Izabella Kaminska | 01:31:45 | |||||
Today, Cem and I are joined by Izabella Kaminska, former Editor of Financial Times Alphaville and Founder of The Blind Spot, to discuss the war of information and mis-information, the aftermath of Covid 19, how the media contributes to a segmentation of society, the group-think phenomenon, how shifts in culture has an impact on economics and how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the global economy. We also discuss the power balance between the Western and the Russian economy, the dollar standard and the factors that contribute to undermine the dollar, isolationism and what de-globalization will look like, the energy crisis and how ESG is becoming increasingly important and perhaps leading to the rise of nuclear technology and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Izabella on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:45 - About Izabella and her journey 06:27 - Autocracy vs. Democracy 15:50 - Covid19...the aftermath 22:00 - Media Segmentation Theory 31:34 - 2022 Economics 49:50 - Western vs. Russian economy 56:31 - Shift in commodities 01:07:25 - Deglobalization 01:18:55 - Nuclear technology 01:24:41 - Prepping for the worst 01:28:34 - Rounding off Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment... | |||||||
| 02 Jan 2022 | SI173: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part Two ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich | 01:33:01 | |||||
Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Rob on Twitter. Follow Mark on Twitter. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:20 - Would you rather trade 100 markets with 1 system, using 10... | |||||||
| 20 May 2023 | SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan | 00:58:00 | |||||
Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - Changes in the podcast format 01:30 - Review of the week 05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems 12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection 28:37 - The optimal process and results 30:58 - Diversification in manager selection 33:51 - Hunting the trends 46:29 - The Knowledge Project 55:44 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click... | |||||||
| 25 Nov 2023 | SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:08:40 | |||||
Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently? 02:20 - Industry performance update 04:51 - What is going on in the markets? 09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs 11:45 - Confusion in the markets 14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation? 20:24 - Mixed signals 22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment? 25:33 - Modeling with personality 32:25 - Losers create diversification 36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten 38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth 47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models? 50:34 - Does new = better? 56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right 59:31 -... | |||||||
| 15 May 2022 | SI192: Knowing What You Don't Know ft. Mark Rzepczinsky | 01:10:44 | |||||
Mark Rzepczynski joins us in today’s episode to discuss inflation and how it threatens the economy, the power and paranoia of Trend Following and how you make the most money as a Trend Follower, what history tells us about common risks and diversification, portfolio construction and whether having more markets gives you better returns, the timing of Trend Following and why you need to have it as a core allocation, how to build the optimal portfolio and why bonds currently may not warrent an allocation, Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi and how the FED being behind the curve affects Trend Following, why bond vigilantes are back and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 04:15 - Inflation 09:09 - Trend Following update 13:00 - Trends trends trends 28:49 - Portfolio construction 42:50 - Timing of Trend Following 49:12 - The Optimal Portfolio 55:12 - Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi 01:04:16 - China and future growth 01:06:07 - Overview of performance Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. | |||||||
| 30 Jan 2023 | TTU127: Trend Following L.A. Style ft. Ryan O' Grady, Co-Founder & CEO at ROW Asset Management | 01:13:49 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We also discuss what the pros and cons of replication are and how their work sets them apart from other trend followers, how they manage risk and mitigate drawdowns, how they succeed to run a multi asset portfolio and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Row Asset Management Episode Timestamps: 02:23 - Introduction to ROW Asset Management 05:18 - Their investment philosophy and objective 11:43 - Should we worry about our sharpe? 16:31 - What to expect from pure trend 20:04 - Their research process 24:00 - Making changes to the system 26:40 - Their thoughts on machine learning 28:53 - New areas for research 30:52 - How many markets should you trade? 35:18 - Their thoughts on replication 38:49 - The risk of replication 42:02 - Managing drawdowns 45:16 -... | |||||||
| 25 Jan 2023 | IL12: How to Invest ft. David Rubenstein | 00:57:54 | |||||
Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part of society. We also discuss how great results require great risk and how becoming a successful investor requires a balance between luck, skill and risk, how to evaluate successful firms like Carlyle Group and the role philanthropists play in society, the economic inequality in America and why taxing the wealth is not a way to solve it, why Rubenstein believes ESGs are here to stay and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow David on Twitter & read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to David Rubinstein 07:02 - From lawyer to investor 11:48 - What inspired the book? 16:32 - Is capitalism going out of fashion? 18:43 - The path | |||||||
| 19 Oct 2024 | SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski | 01:02:15 | |||||
Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:06 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities? 06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes 07:47 - Industry performance update 09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far? 13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions 18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"? 24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time? 29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the... | |||||||
| 01 May 2024 | GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann | 01:05:08 | |||||
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Christian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework 07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation 12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point? 21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point? 27:37 - A scary situation in Europe? 32:16 - How election periods affect the economy 40:22 - A wall of worry 43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce... | |||||||
| 28 Aug 2021 | SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan | 01:29:07 | |||||
This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 03:47 – Macro recap from Niels 05:57 – Weekly review of performance 10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of... | |||||||
| 06 Mar 2024 | IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie | 00:58:34 | |||||
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie 09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work? 10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed? 16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem? 19:10 - How... | |||||||
| 02 Nov 2022 | GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White | 01:27:14 | |||||
Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow William White. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:12 - Introduction to William White 04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies 10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point? 23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes? 33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy? 40:33 - The debt problem 52:24 - Has central bank credibility been... | |||||||
| 28 Jun 2021 | SI146: The Trend Following Mindset ft. Rob Carver | 01:29:40 | |||||
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. You can read some of Rob’s work here. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. 18 Jan 2023 | GM32: Commodity Super Cycle in Full Force ft. Jeff Currie | 01:03:12 | | ||||
In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:35 - Introduction to Jeff Currie 04:18 - A new kind of inflation? 08:41 - Policy and what drives inflation 15:41 - The outlook for the demand side 22:45 - Short term position and the commodity space 28:11: - Disruptions in infrastructure 31:17 - The rise of OPEC 33:32 - Status on the strategic oil reserve 34:20 - Volatility in oil 39:45 - Are we running out of metal? 44:12 - The situation with gas 48:15... | |||||||
| 25 Apr 2021 | SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:21:01 | |||||
Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 02:00 – Macro recap from Niels 08:46 – Weekly review of performance 13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic 28:37 – New style Trend Following with... | |||||||
| 23 Apr 2023 | SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas | 01:11:24 | |||||
Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Looking back on the week 13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series 19:23 - The impact of the SVB event 23:02 - Industry performance update 24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends 35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following 40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there? 43:28 - Defending trend following 54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts 57:06 - The trend following narrative 01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital 01:09:34 - Thanks for listening Resources discussed in this Episode: | |||||||
| 30 Nov 2022 | ALO12: How to Invest like a Private Bank ft. Shannon Saccocia | 01:09:09 | |||||
Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of going back to a low growth environment. We also discuss why managed futures is now worth considering, what defines a good team of managers and how to deal with behavioural bias in manager selection, where the IRA industry is heading and how it affects clients, advice to aspiring CIOs and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Shannon on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:15 - Introduction to Shannon and her work 10:37 - A change in behaviour? 19:12 - Moving beyond the three buckets 26:20 - A rough year 33:01 - Staying diversified 40:03 - Are Managed Futures becoming viable for Private Banks...again? 44:05 - Manager selection vs. asset allocation 50:26 - Dealing with behavioural bias 57:06 - Discussing the IRA industry 01:03:33 -... | |||||||
| 26 Mar 2025 | IL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose Downey | 00:59:20 | |||||
Our guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more uncertainty in monetary policy actually better for long-run economic stability? We tackle all these questions as we explore Dr. Downey’s view that the way we govern central banks needs to change. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Leah Rose Downey 08:36 - A comic flimsy ground 10:34 - Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed 15:21 - Legislators have become a weak economic | |||||||
| 30 Sep 2023 | SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:06:09 | |||||
Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now? 07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees 19:13 - Industry performance update 22:28 - How is the industry holding up? 25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space 28:55 - Performance numbers 30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same 41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable 46:42 - How psychology impacts markets 53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower 59:49 - A chronological snobbery? 01:04:03 - Important announcement Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following... | |||||||
| 09 Mar 2024 | SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver | 01:11:34 | |||||
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:31 - Industry performance update 13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio? 23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility? 26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast? 32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years? 43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based... | |||||||
| 25 Dec 2024 | OI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal Sharma | 00:51:29 | |||||
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Linkedin. Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn. Learn more about J8 Capital. Episode TimeStamps: 16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management 04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital? 05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach? 09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy 13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system? 16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy? 21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage... | |||||||
| 12 Feb 2022 | SI179: A New Golden Era for Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne | 01:04:37 | |||||
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:36 - Macro recap from Niels 05:29 - Weekly review of returns 09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets 18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment 25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio 36:12... | |||||||
| 12 Nov 2023 | SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski | 00:56:42 | |||||
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently? 04:24 - A precursor for the conversation 05:21 - Industry performance update 07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective 11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds" 16:06 - The results of the paper 21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference 24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted 26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds? 33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin? 35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now? 37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change 42:52 - Different people, different perspectives 46:39 - Doing what happens next 48:12 - Best... | |||||||
| 29 Nov 2023 | OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia | 01:01:12 | |||||
Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Anant on LinkedIn Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia 06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR 08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time? 10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading? 14:33 - What is their current trading strategy? 17:07 - An example of one of their trades 21:17 - Staying away from the physical side 23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades 27:18 - Managing the cost of trades 29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19... | |||||||
| 09 Nov 2022 | TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas | 01:13:16 | |||||
Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas 05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies 12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact? 16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people 21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity 30:03 - The impact of trend 37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets 46:10 - Using skew in your strategy 52:57... | |||||||
| 17 Apr 2024 | IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer | 00:57:42 | |||||
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer 04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from? 07:19 - What drives the cycles? 09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles 12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase? 14:39 - Interpreting the signals 17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise? 21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in... | |||||||
| 18 Sep 2021 | SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 01:30:32 | |||||
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link... | |||||||
| 19 Jul 2024 | SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne | 01:02:33 | |||||
Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:02 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work 09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high 09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing 11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election 19:50 - An unsustainable path 24:37 - Industry performance update 27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund? 34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator 38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum" 48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation 01:00:34 - Thanks for... | |||||||
| 07 Jun 2023 | GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz | 01:03:08 | |||||
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Mika on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz 09:25 - Working with econophysics 10:52 - Finding the perfect size 12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing 13:19 - The macro perspective 16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve 18:46 - A changing environment 21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations 23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures 29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage 31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past? 33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased? 35:31 - How does cross... | |||||||
| 31 Oct 2021 | SI164: Compounding - The 8th Wonder of the World ft. Richard Brennan | 01:06:25 | |||||
This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss:
----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:37 – A Thank you to Shane, our website developer, for his great work in creating the new Top Traders Unplugged website. We hope you all enjoy the new user interface 02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: | |||||||
| 05 Jul 2023 | GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave | 01:03:10 | |||||
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave 05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack? 10:40 - When is the recession coming? 13:13 - The outlook for inflation 18:36 - The problem with designification 21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy 27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China? 31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and... | |||||||
| 20 Apr 2024 | SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver | 01:01:56 | |||||
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:05 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:15 - Industry performance update 09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab? 13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto? 20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies? 26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent? 27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy 32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation 41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation 46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa 57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence 59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about... | |||||||
| 20 Nov 2024 | OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut | 00:58:02 | |||||
In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Linkedin. Follow Jerome on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut 03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models 08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model? 09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system 11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders 15:35 - An example of how they handle flow 18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade? 21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the... | |||||||
| 30 Dec 2023 | SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2 | 01:12:45 | |||||
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow Mark on Twitter. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable... | |||||||
| 22 May 2022 | SI193: Nothing But Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker | 01:25:12 | |||||
Trend Following legend Jerry Parker joins me today, where we answer questions regarding the effectiveness and risks of Richard Dennis’ “Pyramiding” methodology, how single stocks have performed differently than the indices recently, how to most optimally apply breakout systems, how to react to a drastic fall in a market like we saw in LUNA and the difference between performance of short and long trades in non-volatility targeted systems, how to avoid harmful research pursuits and popular ideas that just don’t work, different ways that ownership of a CTA passes on to a new owner, designing systems that gives you a high degree of consistency and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Jerry on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 06:32 - What has caught Jerry’s attention? 13:34 - Q1, Sascha: The Richard Dennis “Pyramiding” methodology 18:35 - Q2, Jeff: Jerry’s current positioning in single stocks 23:10 - Q3, Louis: Parameter selection for different breakout systems 32:16 - Q4, Adam & Scott: How to deal with a drastic fall in a market like LUNA 41:49 - Q5, Carl: What doesn’t work in Trend Following? 48:34 - Q6, Brian: How to pass on ownership of a CTA Business 53:34 - Designing consistent Trend Following systems 01:09:17 - Trend, trends and no diversification 01:22:36 - Performance update Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're... | |||||||
| 10 Aug 2024 | SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas | 01:05:01 | |||||
Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events". ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:45 - What has been on our radar recently? 03:49 - Industry performance update 05:37 - An eventful week 11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context 18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently? 26:40 - How trend following performs according to data 29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing? 34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week? 45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks? 50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem? 54:58 - The evolution of risk management 01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlines Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All... | |||||||
| 12 Mar 2025 | ALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David Giroux | 01:01:17 | |||||
Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Read more about David here. Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price 09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued? 11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations? 13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets 18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI 21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates 23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation 28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets 31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock portfolios 35:35 -... | |||||||
| 23 Mar 2024 | SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne | 00:59:55 | |||||
Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment? 05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble? 14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound? 20:41 - Industry performance update 24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook 32:29 - Equities are here for the long term 37:57 - All in on equities? 44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong 46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role? 50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in? 53:28 - Choosing the right strategy 58:00 - Thanks for listening Resources discussed in this Episode: | |||||||
| 13 Dec 2024 | SI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy Kaminski | 01:00:20 | |||||
Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:05 - What has caught our attention recently? 02:13 - Industry performance update 03:48 - Our takeaways from 2024 09:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets 13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year? 14:15 - Concluding on 2024 15:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space 18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 2024 20:18 - Optimism for the managed futures... | |||||||