Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart (Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money)

The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low. Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative. We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the party. So, is that truly the case? For answer,s we turn to market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight

Follow Gordan at https://matasii.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #hardlanding #investing

On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.

The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.

Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.

And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.

Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?

Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?

For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. 

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #volatility #investing

We're going to do something a little different in today's video. This Thoughtful Money channel is all about wealth-building. So makes sense that we focus most of our attention on money. But money is a means to an end. It's not an end in and of itself. No one's goal in life is to die atop a big pile of cash -- instead we hope to use our money to better enjoy the things that really feed our souls. As those who live to be 100 years old tell us, true wealth, the things that really matter in life, are a function of the following three things: fulfilling relationships, purpose and health. So, as a number of you have asked for, I'm going to periodically interview experts on these key topics. And today we're going to focus on what makes for successful happy relationships. To help us understand what makes or breaks the important relationships in our lives, I've invited a professional marriage & family therapist today. Ashley is a licensed MFT, trained in Emotion-Focused Therapy (otherwise known as EFT) and the Gottman Method of couples therapy -- Drs John & Julie Gottman we're made famous by Malcolm Gladwell's coverage of them in his book "Blink" describing how they could predict with near 90% accuracy whether or not a couple will remain together after interviewing them for only 3 minutes. In her California practice, Ashley deals with clients from all backgrounds, many of whom are Silicon Valley power-couples, though she also sees her fair share of rural farmers. I would be remiss if I didn't also acknowledge that Ashley is my wife. So I can personally vouch for both her professional credentials as well as the effectiveness of the strategies for conflict resolution she'll share with us in today's discussion. Because we have put plenty of them to use in our own marriage -- which just celebrated its 24th anniversary last week.

HAVE QUESTIONS FOR ASHLEY? You can contact her at https://taggartrelationships.com/ #relationships #therapy #mentalhealth

I've stated many times on this program that perhaps the easiest macro trend to forecast is that our fiat currencies will continue to lose purchasing power.Today's guest explains why, and what we can do to protect our wealth from this scourge in his new book: The Big Print, What Happened To America and How Sound Money Will Fix ItWe're fortunate to be joined by investor, sound money advocate and - now - author, Lawrence Lepard.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes. For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year. This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash. But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have become used to after back-to-back 20%+ annual returns. We discuss his outlook in depth, as well as the new payrolls data, rising bond yields, why credit spreads remain so tight, and his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this new Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Today we have the good fortune to hear *another* housing analyst's 2025 outlook for home prices. We're joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app. Nick points out that buying a home has rarely been this expensive in living American history: once was in 1981 when mortgage rates were a whopping 18%. The other time was in 2006, right before we experienced the biggest US housing correction ever. And speaking of corrections, Florida and Texas now seem to clearly be in one. And that weakness looks to be spreading into other states. What does all this forebode for 2025? We'll ask Nick directly. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half.

What does that mean?

Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come?

Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble?

Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal?

For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector.

We'll also ask them their thoughts on the future prospects of the gold and silver mining companies.

Will their performance catch up to, and perhaps outpace that of the metals soon?

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#goldprice #silverprice #miningstocks

When markets are in turmoil as they are now, I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van EckJan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes.As we've done the past several quarters now, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his latest macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.

The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%

Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.

But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so next week will bear close watching.

Portfolio Manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this in depth - as well as Jesse Felder's "three 50s" warnings, inflation, bonds, the price action in gold & oil, as well as his firm's recent trades.

For everything that mattered to market, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #bondyields #goldprice

Housing expert Melody Wright has updated her outlook on US home prices for 2025, now predicting they will decline nationally.

There's a lot of change in the air right now: in the economy, the markets, and of course with the fast-approaching US election. There's so much change currently underway that today's guest titled his latest report: The Macro Winds Are Shifting. How exactly? What will the likely repercussions be? And how should investors consider positioning intelligently today for where the puck is headed? For guidance, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report. Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/ or on X/Twitter at @JesseFelder WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #earnings #marketcorrection

Macro & markets expert Dr Marc Faber predicts that the "heavenly" returns the financial markets have delivered over the past 20+ years are now a relic of history. Going forward he expects a much more "disappointing" environment for investors over the coming decade. He warns this will happen at a time when the world will also see weakening economic growth, rising geopolitical threats, and mounting social unrest. Those who will fare best during this period will be those who position themselves and their money prudently now, in advance. Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

(Recorded 11.6.23)

Nothing happens in an economy without energy.  And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East. What does 2024 look to have in store for this essential fuel? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with the energy experts at Doomberg today. The exceptional quality of their newsletter has made them the #1-ranked financial Substack in the world, for good reason.

Follow Doomberg at https://doomberg.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#oilprice #oil #energy

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com

Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #liquidity #bullmarket #stocks2024

Today's guest expert wrote in her latest newsletter: "This month, animal spirits surged on bets that artificial intelligence and central bank rate cuts can solve the problem of spreading insolvency." She is highly dubious that they can. And if indeed they cannot, what then lies ahead for the economy, for the markets, and for investors? To find out we'll hear it straight from her directly. We have the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #marketcorrection #stocksinvesting

As 2023 begins to draw to a close, investors are feeling substantially better than they were are the start of the year. And as we enter 2024 where is all this headed? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year? Or will 2024 see a return to the downside? I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, Felix Zulauf, founder & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, who presciently predicted we have entered the "decade of the roller coasters" where markets will rise and fall dramatically as the natural forces of deflation battle it out with the rescue efforts of the central planners. Felix manages a prodigious amount in assets, so he doesn't have the luxury of an opinion without conviction. He has a strong picture of where we are in the current market cycle & is allocating capital accordingly. Follow Felix at felixzulauf.com

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for this interview with Felix, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #marketcrash #bondyields #recession

What impact (if any) will the Trump victory have on Federal Reserve policy? Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers.

REGISTER for Farmland LP's free webinar on Sep 4 @7pmET by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale. #farmland #soil #organicfarming

While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks. We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odds, Zombie company risk, the un-inverting yield curve, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For all the mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

To better understand the odds for success of the economic policies of the new Trump Administration, it helps to talk to someone with first-hand experience in managing the Federal budget.Today's guest, has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman -- who served a the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.He's also the author of the new book: 'How To Cut $2 Trillion: A Blueprint From Ronald Reagan’s Budget Cutter To Musk, Ramaswamy And The DOGE Team'.We'll hear his advice for bringing the runaway fiscal deficit under control, and whether he thinks the Administration is indeed up to the task.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top" This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst. But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some even gained mightily from those crashes, having been positioned wisely in advance. Today's guest is one of those who smartly navigated the past 2 great market corrections. He now thinks we stand at the precipice of a 3rd -- and he's ringing a bell for anyone who will listen. To hear why and what he advises we do about it, we have the great fortune to speak today with Dr John Hussman, founder of Hussman funds, economist, health scientist and philanthropist. He also plays a mean guitar. John gives interviews very rarely. So it's a true privilege for Thoughtful Money that he's willing to give us the next hour of his time. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Follow John at https://www.hussmanfunds.com or on X/Twitter at @hussmanjp You can read John's recent Market Comment (and see all the charts) at https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/ #marketcrash #stockbubble #investing

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue? Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence? And where does inflation figure into all of this? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Total US federal debt now stands at $35.34 Trillion, now exceeding US annual GDP by $10 trillion. It has been growing at a faster rate than GDP for many decades. That dynamic shows no signs of reversing or even moderating. And on top of the federal debt lies the borrowing of households, businesses, financial institutions and state & local governments. When you add all that up, the total US debt exceeds $100 trillion. So what does that mean for the future? Are we hurdling towards a sovereign debt crisis, as a number of analysts warn? Or is there reason to hope the economy can handle this debt trajectory? For guidance, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight Follow Gordon at https://matasii.com LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #debtcrisis #inflation #investing

Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets. To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data. We should ask first: what is the data saying? And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it. So, what is the current data telling us? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market. And the one he's most worried about? Demographics. The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away. Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/ Or on Twitter at @Econimica

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #population #demographics #immigration

Well it's a new year. And in just two weeks, a new American Administration as well. What kind of impact will President-Elect Trump's policies likely have on natural resources, the "real things" that power the global economy? To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a heck of a gentleman, to boot. Rick sees a lot of opportunity for investors ahead in oil & gas. But the real deals right now are in the gold mining companies, which he reports are the most undervalued he's seen in his long career.

Here are the links to Rick's events mentioned in this discussion:

https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulebootcamp

https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulesyndicate

Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late. The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months. Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of? Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instead? For insight, we're fortunate to speak today with Jonathan Treussard, former partner and head of product at Research Associates, and now founder of Treussard Capital Management. Jonathan, who authored academic research on financial bubbles at UCLA, indeed concludes we are in the midst of another such bubble now. Follow Jonathan at https://www.treussard.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bubbles #nvidia #nvda

The world has watched intently as the world's most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history -- on a % change over time basis. But that campaign may now be over. And if it is, it suggests opportunity in the long Treasury bond market. To find out just how much of an opportunity, we sit down today with highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Learn more about David's work at https://rosenbergresearch.com/ #recession #bonds #inflation

Stocks are on track to end 2024 on a high note. The S&P is up roughly 27% so far, hitting new record highs all throughout the year. Will the party continue into the New Year? Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable one for investors? To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. He maintains a 20-point model that guides his portfolio allocation, and today we'll hear what it's advising him to do right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.

So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.

What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?

Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?

And where does he see the housing market headed from here?

For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices

Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in. If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table. But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters. We discuss these odds, as well as the weakening labor market outlook, the GameStop circus show, concerns about AI demand, and Lance's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gamestop #employment #inflation

There's a lot of debate right now whether the US is indeed at risk of entering a recession this year.And at the same time, the stock market has become a lot more volatile, swinging between Risk On and Risk Off as Wall Street sentiment becomes increasingly bipolar.Who is more likely to be proven right this year: the optimists or the pessimists?For answers, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors.Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the road ahead.

Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer"

Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched".

Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here.

Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only 2 or 3.

And who knows?

They may not get any.

Does this mean financial asset prices need to adjust downward in some material way?

And will the economy slow faster than expected from here?

Perhaps the recent weakness we've saw in stocks in April was Wall Street finally awakening to these potential ramifications.

For an analyst's perspective on the matter, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#volatility #bullmarket #interestrates

2024 has been a good year for the bulls. And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. Bill is watching bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to revolt against the Fed's rate new rate cutting plans. He's been waiting for years for the moment when bond investors lose confidence in central planners' ability to tame inflation as well as reign in deficit spending. Bill thinks we might have just reached that point. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #interestrates #bearmarket

The Fed sent a shock through markets last week when it announced that fewer rates cuts may be needed to reach its policy goals. The S&P immediately sold off by -3% and the Nasdaq and Russell sold off even harder. It this just a curveball that, once digested, won't a matter much to the bull trend? Or, could it have set up a reversal in trend? To discuss, the advisors at New Harbor Financial give their take and then answer viewer questions live.

When today's guest was last on this program back in October, she advised investors to prepare for a more volatile year ahead in 2025 - a year in which she predicted 'the game would start to get harder"So far, with the major indices stuck bouncing up & down in a trading range, her prediction is looking prescient.Now that we're two months into the year, and we have more clarity around the new Trump administration and its policies, what does she see ahead for the markets?To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, back to the program today.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Here's a fun question: What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert? Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time! I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bit about sports and the meaning of life, too. This is an amazing & highly important discussion featuring two of the most respected minds in macro. And both agree: investors need to react to the changing environment else be caught flat-footed by it. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets? Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment? What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down? For a true expert's view on these important questions, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. We also discuss his views on the economic plans (as understood so far) of both presidential candidates. Punchline: Lacy is not impressed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #election2024 #economy

When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile. He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct. But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investors. Does he still think that? To find out, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com/ and http://kaiwealh.com/and https://kai-nexus.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The US real estate market remains frozen.

Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.

As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.

Melody expects the spring selling season to finally start unlocking "true price discovery" for the US housing market, and predicts a national aggregate price decline as the year progresses.

Follow Melody on X/Twitter at @m3_melody

Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index. But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance. We discuss why, as well any impact this week's presidential debate is likely to have on markets, For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #presidentialdebate #magnificent7 #investing

Stocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week. Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts. This week also saw the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by a further 0.25%, with Fed Chair projecting confidence that a soft landing is in the cards. All this raises an interesting question: If bull markets "climb a wall of worry", are we running out of worry? Lance and I discuss that, the breakout in stocks, the future of bonds yields, what Trumps proposed policies will mean for the economy, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #trumpelection #interestrates

The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.

The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"

But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.

Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).

So why is there such a big disconnect here?

For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.

While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.

Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs

Stocks got slaughtered this week in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.The S&P is now off more than -15% from its all-time high earlier this year. The NASDAQ is down over -20% from its ATH and is officially now in a "bear market".So, is this The Big One?Will stocks continue to crash? Perhaps triggering a recession?Or, might there be reasons for a rebound after the dust settles?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss in depth in today's Market Recap. I do my best to ask him the most pressing questions that investors most have on their minds after this scary -- and painful -- week.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Well, the election is over and we have a clear victor. What kind of economy is President-elect Trump inheriting? And what impact on it are his policies likely to have? And what does this mean for investors? Where do the opportunities, as well as the risks, lie? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined again by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #capitalflows #bullmarket #trumpeconomy

As Q1 concludes, corporations are starting to enter the blackout period preventing them from buying back their stock until they've released their quarterly earnings (weeks away for most companies) That temporarily removes THE most important buying support for shares. Combine that with other expected net liquidity reductions in Q2, such as the end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) running dry, and think could get quite bumpy for financial assets. After all, Lance has been expecting a ~10% correction for a while now, and the markets have only moved higher -- increasing the odds of a pullback. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #buybackofshares #buybacks #marketcorrection

When I interviewed today's guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time -- but it indeed proved true less than a year later. He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did. Where does he see inflation headed from here? To find out, as well as hear his latest outlook on the economy, recession risk, social stability and the markets, we welcome back Steve Hanke professor, of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#recession #inflation #moneysupply

Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-off From their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7% How much further will the sell-off go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated Market Recap, along with the recent jobs data, the FOMC release, Jerome Powell's recent press conference, the latest market technicals, and Lance's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #recession #jobsreport

For a long time now, passive capital inflows have powered equities higher, especially the Magnificent 7, as a tremendous percent of every new dollar that flows into the market goes into these 7 stocks. But some of these once-bulletproof companies are now starting to struggle. And those passive capital inflows? There are emerging signs they may be stalling, perhaps even starting to reverse. If true, could that take asset prices down just as powerfully as it drove them higher? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #marketcrash #shortingstocks

The markets are locked in a battle of dangerous extremes vs high complacency. Yes, there are many reasons to be concerned about today's record high valuations. But those concerns haven't mattered yet. And there's no guarantee they will on any relevant time frame to today's investors. And so the party in stocks continues on...for now. In today's interview, macro analyst Grant Williams discusses how we've reached this point: we debauched the value of money. And in doing so, we re-focused the goal of every company towards boosting the stock price, and away from creating sustainable value. How long can this continue before the markets reprice, downwards, to valuations that can be sustained by fundamentals? This is THE existential question facing investors today, Grant posits. Your financial well-bring will be determined by the choice you make here. For one of the more important discussions you'll hear on investing this year, watch this interview with the great Grant Williams. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making. And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions. Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work. Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate. This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by. So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts joins me for a special report making sense of yesterday's announced "Liberation Day" tariffs.Live Q&A will be taken from the audience in the back half of the discussion

When the game changes, the old rules don't apply and to succeed, you need to adopt a new playbook. Well, there's a good argument to be made that the investing gameboard has materially changed in the post-COVID era. But so far, both Wall Street and regular investors are still playing by the old rules. Is this a recipe for disaster? To find out, we have the good fortune today to hear from Jesse Fedler, founder & Editor of The Felder Report, a highly respected market research firm. He written a lot lately on the "sea change" the economy and financial markets have recently experienced. We'll ask him what the biggest implications will be & how investors should adapt to them.

Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/ or on X/Twitter at @jessefelder

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #interestrates #techstocks

Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.

Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Or on X/Twitter at  @BiancoResearch 

And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Jim. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #reverserepo #inflation #federalreserve

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Today, we're going to do something a little different on this channel. We're going to interview a highly successful private equity CEO, and yes we'll get his economic & market outlook for 2025. But, we'll also delve into his insights for achieving personal success, in life and business. Graham Weaver is the founder and managing partner of Alpine Investors, a people-driven private equity firm that invests in software and services businesses. He serves on the faculty at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business where he teaches a top-rated strategic management course. And he's also a highly popular personal development influencer, with millions of followers across social media. Graham also happens to be one of my former business school classmates. I witnessed him begin his private equity firm from his dorm room there. He's a truly remarkable individual and I predict you're going to highly enjoy today's discussion. Follow Graham at https://www.grahamweaver.com Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@UC0QlsANSV3_ZC-uqxLQ_5uA Or on TikTok and Instagram at  @grahamcweaver  Or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/graham-weaver-2b79/ #privateequity #investing #businesssuccess

The winds of change are blowing around the globe. 74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year. Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda. With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, what is the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2025? To discuss, we have the great fortune of speaking today with Richard Koo, Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute as well as author of numerous best-selling books on economics. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #interestrates #inflation

With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it. We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy. Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the central planners? To explore this, we welcome economist Dr Arthur Laffer. Dr Laffer was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth. Dr Laffer sees the major nations of the world declining into a sclerotic senescence. BUT...he sees a way for us to reverse that plight, on a timeline that could be much faster than many imagine is possible. The key question is: Will we have the conviction, courage and commitment to embrace the necessary reforms? For an important discussion with a respected economic advisor to nearly every President since Nixon, watch this video with Dr Art Laffer.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #taxes #internationaltrade #economics

There can be little doubt we're at a material juncture: Deficit spending and the resulting pile of debts and other sovereign liabilities are starting to place real limits on our economic prosperity. In addition to these legacies of the past, the future is fast becoming more uncertain as many nations -- the US in particular -- are embarking on new policy directions very different from the status quo of recent decades.Where is all this heading?And are our odds for entering a better tomorrow increasing or decreasing?To help us wrestle with these very large and important questions, we have the great privilege of speaking today with Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economics at Columbia, bestselling author, and global leader in sustainable development.A survey by The Economist ranked Professor Sachs as among the three most influential living economists -- and it is an honor to welcome him to this program for the first, of hopefully many future appearances.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.

REGISTER FOR CRAIG'S FREE WEBINAR on Feb 6, 2024 by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com

#farmland #soil #organicfarming

As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly. Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs. Positive sentiment -- be it among investors, businesses or consumers -- is suddenly spiking. Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market's good times to continue rolling in 2025? Or, is the optimism overlooking risks -- both valuation-based and structural -- that may make next year a much more challenging one for investors? For answers, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Stocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds. Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur? Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction risk in 2025, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.

But in which direction?

We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.

Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.

Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #inflation #jobs

It's certainly an interesting time in the markets. The world's major central banks have returned to cutting interest rates. Yet bond yields are rising on the long end. Meanwhile, risk on assets are in rally mode. Stocks are back at all-time highs. Yet so is gold, the grand-daddy of risk off assets. To make sense of all of this, we're fortunate to speak today with capital managers David Hay and Jeff Dick of Evergreen Gavekal. David is its Chief Investment Officer & Principal and Jeff is a Managing Director and Partner there. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #volatility #marketcorrection

Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for.

But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again?

Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances.

If that happens, what will the implications be?

And can investors to proactively today to prepare?

For answers, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.

Follow Tavi at https://www.crescat.net/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #interestrates #commodities

After a long slumber, volatility has started returning to the financial markets over the past month. Why? And is this just a brief episode? Or the start of a more turbulent era for investors? For answers, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #volatility #vix #investing

Tariffs, trade wards, DOGE, deportations -- the disruption has come fast and furious so far during president Trump's first two weeks in office. The non-stop surprises (not to mention the DeepSeek scare) are creating a lot of market volatility, as well as a lot of uncertainty for analysts and pundits . How are we regular investors supposed to navigate such a turbulent new era? The financial advisors at New Harbor Financial and I discuss exactly that in today's video. BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so far) has been positive.My bullet-point notes to Powell’s conference are below.And I’m also happy to announce that Fed-watcher Axel Merk is joining us again to deliver his expert reaction to the Fed’s latest guidance as well as take your questions live.

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull. He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time. At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have changed. Well, Sven just reached out last night, letting me know that he has closed out all his longs this week and moved to cash. Why? What has him so spooked? Let's ask the man himself. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy

Stocks pretty much ended the week where they began. Is the raging rally that has propelled stocks higher so far this year finally running out of gas? Quite possibly thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Valuations remain at extremely stretched extremes for many assets including story stocks like Nvida, speculative assets like Bitcoin...and even gold. As he has been predicting for several weeks now, Lance cautions that a 5-10% correct in the markets is highly likely at this point. It's time to hedge your positions and/or take gains. We address all this, as well as inflation, jobs, recession odds, the plight of the middle class, the proposed legislation to limit TikTok, and the requirements & benefits of our constitutional republic form of governance. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #interestrates #higherforlonger

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions. It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money. When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen. But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged. So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #money

When today's guest was on this program last back in December, he predicted the following:1. That a contraction in global liquidity could set the stage for severe market corrections and increased volatility -- check2. That stocks would peak early in 2025, and then experience a 15-20% correction -- check3. That new U.S. trade tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners, triggering a global trade war -- check, especially in regards to ChinaSo far he's 3 for 3.He also recommended that investors start 2025 defensively, reducing equity exposure, avoiding long-duration bonds, and instead load up on T-bills and gold.Again, this was a winning combination. So who is this prescient forecaster?None other than Felix Zulauf, Founder and CEO, Zulauf Consulting.He usually only does public interviews once a year, but given the recent market turbulence, he has decided to return early to help investors make sense of what's most likely to happen next from here.We're extremely fortunate -- and grateful -- that he has selected Thoughtful Money as one of the few platforms he's granting an interview to this week.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #volatility #bullmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected. Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked. Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder: Is a Santa Claus rally still likely? Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest inflation data, his macro and market outlook for 2025, and his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The Trump Administration's torrent of tariffs is keeping stocks on edge as "Liberation Day" approaches on April 2nd.Today I sit down with Jonathan Wellum, of Rocklinc Investment Partners up in Canada, to discuss how to invest through such market uncertainty.Jonathan gives a valuable perspective on the Trump tariffs from a country on the receiving end of them.And he provides his firm's latest guidance for investing in the precious metals sector during the bull run in gold & silver we're experiencing now.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers.

TO BUY GOLD & SILVER, contact Andy's firm at info@milesfranklin.comPrecious metals expert Andy Schectman gives his latest update on the gold & silver markets. He'll also take live audience Q&A.

The Dow just had its best week of 2024.

And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.

As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.

Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #stocks #jobsreport

Yesterday the Federal Reserve Market Committee announced it has chosen to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady for now, but when that changes, a rate cut is much more likely than a rate hike. In fact, the FOMC now expects it's probable it will cut rates three times in 2024. Following the release of this announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference where he clarified the Fed's thinking. Powell projected a largely positive vibe, pleased that inflation is declining, economic growth is slowing from the frothy levels seen in Q3, and that the labor market is "coming back into balance". He no longer expects a recession in 2024. Stocks, bonds, commodities and nearly ever other financial asset shot higher on the news. So, is this this "all clear"? Is it time for the bulls to run? Or may history repeat itself, as most recessions follow the first rate cuts made after a hiking regime? To find out, we talk with experienced Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments, and take live audience Q&A. Follow Axel on X/Twitter at  @AxelMerk 

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.

So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?

Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.

He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.

We also discuss solutions for the unaffordable housing market, Lance's warning to retirees, the US' unsustainable fiscal path, and potential success strategies for job seekers.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#retirement #housingmarket #jobs

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation

Nearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate. Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches. Markets hate uncertainty, and with a close election expected, not just for the Presidency but for the chambers of Congress as well, it's likely investors will start selling and moving towards the sidelines as summer approaches. Lance and I discuss that, as well as concerning new jobs data, the looming retirement crisis, the worsening wealth divide, plus several other positive recent developments in this week's recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #bullmarket #jobs2024

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

We've had two excellent years of returns in the stock market. Can that winning streak continue into 2025? And in less than a week, we should know who the next President of the United States is. How should investors alter their position based on who the winner is. For answers, we're going to find out how the big players -- those managing tens of billions of dollars in client capital -- are allocating their portfolios right now. And we'll ask: what can the regular retail investor learn from their strategy? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Chris Brightman to the program today. Chris is the CEO & CIO of Research Affiliates, and along with Rob Arnott, is co-portfolio manager on the PIMCO All Asset and All Asset All Authority funds and the PIMCO RAE™ funds To give you a sense of the impressive scope of Chris' work, around $150 billion in assets are managed worldwide using investment strategies developed by Research Affiliates. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #deficit #debtcrisis #investing

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

As Felix Zulauf also assesses, Lance Roberts thinks the markets are in a bottoming process.In his estimation, the majority of the negative risks (e.g. tariff uncertainty, slowing economic growth, weakening consumer) are already priced in to stocks and bonds. While he expects markets will likely remain volatile over the next few months and could retest the recent lows, he doesn't expect material new lows. And in the latter half of the year, markets will start pricing in better times ahead.We discuss the reasons why, as well as his latest views on the Administration's policies, bonds and gold. Lance also shares his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history. With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation. A few months back, I interviewed Steven Bavaria, creator of the Income Factory framework about the merits of constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Today, Steven returns to drill down on the specifics of credit investing, an area that many investors don't have much personal experience in, but offers attractive returns and relative safety in today's market environment. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1356 WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #creditinvesting #bondsinvesting

One of the biggest forces boosting both economic growth and asset price appreciation over recent years has been the explosion of higher fiscal deficit spending -- sending the prices of all assets including growth stocks, gold and Bitcoin soaring. Today's guest, analyst Lyn Alden, predicts we'll be stuck with these these large deficits for a long time to come, often repeating in her writing that "nothing stops this train". Why? And if indeed so, what are the implications for investors? And furthermore, with a new US presidential Administration publicly committed to reducing government spending, is the train truly unstoppable? For answers, we'll ask Lyn directly. Lyn, thanks so much for joining us today! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Well, the Fed has now cut its benchmark interest rate 75 basis points, and yet mortgage rates have RISEN -- back up near 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage. This has NOT been good news for the housing market, which has been frozen transaction-wise at record levels of unaffordability for the majority of aspiring purchasers. It's been often asked on this program: How long can the housing market remain broken like this? Well, we may be finding out the answer to that. In a growing number of metros, inventory is rising (substantially in many cases), prices are coming down, and long-standing real estate barons are starting to break their cardinal rule to "never sell". Is this growing trickle of motivated sellers we're now seeing as more and more regional housing markets start to thaw likely to soon become a flood? For answers, we're fortunate to hear today from mortgage expert and housing analyst Melody Wright. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher?

Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house.

He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bonds #fedpivot #interestrates

Stephanie Pomboy shares her latest outlook on inflation. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The US housing market remains in uncharted territory. Median -- not average -- existing home prices hit another all-time high last month, yet transaction volumes are at lows not seen for decades. And potentially changing the game from here is that mortgage rates are likely headed downwards now that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. We're also seeing inventory starting to surge in an increasing number of regions. What does this all mean for home prices as we head into 2025? Will we ever return to a "normal" market again? And what would "normal" look like from here? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

ONLY 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

#housingmarket #homeprices #mortgagerates

Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"

And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.

For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

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#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates

Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them. Will that take asset prices even higher from here? Are we in a new golden era for stocks? To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunate to speak today with Sven Henrich, technical analyst and publisher of NorthmanTrader.com. Sven thinks we are at an important juncture, technically-speaking. Either a material correction is going to happen...or we're at the start of a much bigger bull run than we've seen so far. One potentially big enough to send the S&P to 9000 by 2028(!) WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #technicalanalysis #bullmarket #stocks

Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC. When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year. At that scale, today's guest expert would argue that deficits are indeed starting to matter, because the US is now increasingly challenged to service the debts and other associated liabilities that have accreted from all the years of rising deficit spending. In fact, he concludes we're on a collision course for a sovereign debt crisis, one that will take the purchasing power of the US dollar down with it. To find out why, and what can be done about it, we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program.

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Follow Luke at FFTT-LLC.com #volatility #marketcorrection #dollar

Macro & markets expert Dr Marc Faber returns for Part 2 of this interview to explain his concerns why he sees democracy increasingly under threat around the world -- and mostly from within. Sadly, he expects geopolitical competition, government overreach, and the diminished prospects of the masses to result in increasing deterioration of our democratic system. Social unrest and/or war may be the inevitable result. Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

(Recorded 11.6.23)

Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower. Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here. The big question from here is: how far will it go? Lance and I discuss that, plus the weakening jobs data, a recent un-inversion of the yield curve, the sell-off in AI darling Nvidia, and Lance's firm's recent trades in this week's Market Recap. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bearmarket #marketcorrection #bonds

Despite the best efforts of Elon Musk and the DOGE team, the US fiscal deficit for 2025 is $1.3 trillion so far, the second highest six-month level on record.And while the US at least is giving lip service to its plans to reduce its deficit over coming years, much of the rest of the world's largest economies -- like the EU and China -- are actively ramping up their fiscal spending. All of which makes today's guest's perspective incredibly timely. He's just released a new second edition to his book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream"Is there a way we can stop, and perhaps even reverse the loss of purchasing power our fiat currencies are suffering from all this wanton spending?Or, it is only going to get worse from here?To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

The last time Simon Hunt was on this channel, he predicted a rocky road ahead for the global economy, that will eventually culminate in the massive pile of $trillions in global unserviceable debt going into default causing a worldwide depression by 2025. Since his last appearance, the markets have become a lot more optimistic, US Q3 GDP hit 4.9% and inflation has marching downwards to 3% -- all positives. Though on the negative side, US deficits & debt balances have soared, leading economic indicators have fallen to recessionary levels, and the Middle East has been plunged into war. Today we'll ask commodities expert and geopolitical analyst Simon Hunt how any of this impacts his dire forecast for 2024/2025. Follow Simon at his website https://www.simon-hunt.com/

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #depression #marketcrash

While there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken. Other than that, though, the developments this week have been largely favorable for the economy. Very strong jobs numbers (if we can believe them), a resolution to the longshoremen strike that threatened to paralyze ports along the US Gulf and East coasts, and a potential resumption of student loan forgiveness. We talk about all that and more, including Lance's firm's latest trades, in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobsreport #liquidity #bearmarket