This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler (Podmasters)

As Russia’s war crimes in Bucha are revealed to the world, are there more atrocities yet to be uncovered? And what should the world be doing to help Ukraine? Journalist Romeo Kokriatski dials in to tell Arthur Snell about Putin’s plans for genocide, how the war has changed Ukraine, and why the West needs to do more. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “My father-in-law slept in the cellar, and we’re very lucky he did because when he woke up in the morning, half the house was gone.” “For Ukrainians, this is far from the first time that we have been subjected to Russian aggression to kill a good portion of us.” “The world should be doing everything in its power to prevent another genocide.” “Britain, a rich, developed country which seems to want to help us in so many ways, draws the line at helping the most vulnerable in our society, refugees.” “The ultimate goal of all fascist states is to expand until they have dominium over the world. That is what Russia wants.” “Putin needs to be removed from power. If Russia is not halted now then this conflict will grow, and there is no negotiated route to peace.” “People have seen that Ukraine is developed and democratic European state, and I’m very proud of that.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar? Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future is far from assured. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Buy Our Dollar, Your Problem through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This is Not a Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Managing Editor, Jacob Jarvis. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO, ending decades of military neutrality, how has Putin's invasion revived an alliance described as 'Braindead' by Emmanuel Macron just two years ago? Lord Peter Ricketts, a former Permanent Representative to NATO, ex-ambassador to France and Britain's first National Security Advisor, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the implications of war in Ukraine for Western security, and the potential paths for ending the conflict. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Sweden and Finland applying to join signals a huge turnaround for the NATO alliance.” “Sweden and Finland bring to NATO a serious defence capacity and a serious defence mindset.” ”Russia has to come to terms with the fact that as a result of what Putin has done, NATO is stronger and more united.” “This move from the Nordic nations is so well supported, I don’t think Turkey will block it in the long-term.” “When there are problems in NATO, Washington usually uses its muscle to sort them out.” “Although people around Trump have doubts around NATO, the alliance is well supported in Congress.” “Britain is most effective in the world when we work with our closest neighbours and allies.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The nuclear nightmare is back – and just one man gave unstable states across the world access to weapons that could bring down the apocalypse. This is the story of Abdul Qadeer Khan, a gifted scientist who grew to fear India in the chaos and butchery of Partition, then worked to give his new home, Pakistan, the protection of a nuclear arsenal. Disastrously, he would spread this dangerous knowledge. Thus began the Subcontinent’s own arms race, its spillover to North Korea, Iran and beyond… and AQ Khan’s journey to become another Oppenheimer: the father of nuclear nightmares. Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get next week’s episode now, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “Without this one-man proliferation machine, none of North Korea, Pakistan or Iran’s nuclear programmes would have succeeded.” – Arthur Snell “Khan became a zealot. He thought he could save not just Pakistan but the whole Muslim world. And that’s where he went terribly wrong.” – Hassan Abbas “Russia’s war in Ukraine may be disastrous – but it’s taught everyone the value of nukes.” – Arthur Snell Photograph of AQ Khan: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the idea of a coherent, US-led world order in tatters. In a special panel episode, Gavin Esler is joined by co-hosts Emma Beals and Oz Katerji to talk about American foreign policy in an age of spiralling tensions in the Middle East, the continued threat from Russia, and the wildcard risk of a potential return to the White House of Donald Trump.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler, with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine faltering, could the Kremlin consider escalating the conflict using chemical weapons? What would biological warfare look like?  Dr Alastair Hay, a Professor of Environmental Toxicology at the University of Leeds, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the history of chemical weapons, and if we'll see them used in the Ukraine conflict. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Officially Russia should have no chemical weapons. But all the evidence points to them being responsible for the Salisbury poisonings.”  “The novichok nerve agent used against the Skripals and Navalny is exceeding lethal in small quantities.”  “Russia has stood back and supported Syria’s use of chemical weapons.”  “The U.K. had stocks of chemical weapons, but these were destroyed in the 1950s and 60s.”  “Chemical weapons cause nowhere near as many casualties as nuclear weapons, but they are indiscriminate.”  “Troops have protective clothing, but civilians don’t, so the use of these weapons would be to terrorise the population.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins? Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of conservative magazine The Bulwark, who has broken with the Republicans in revulsion at the party’s surrender to the MAGA ideal; and historian Sarah Churchwell, author of Behold America: The Entangled History of “America First” and “The American Dream”, to understand the United States’ fateful choice.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more.  Buy Behold America here and help the podcast via our affiliate links. • “The worst thing is that Trump is succeeding because of the demagoguery, the incitement, the violence and the contempt for the rule of law – not in spite of it.” – Bill Kristol  • “Trump is of a kind that we’ve seen before, but of a degree that we’ve never seen before. And he’s achieved power that we’ve never seen before.” – Sarah Churchwell Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This operation is not playing out as Russia expected. They thought the blitzkrieg would work – but they have fatally misread Ukraine.” “Two generations of Ukrainians have been born into freedom. The heroism they’ve shown in recent days is extraordinary.” “Will we see an incident at the border as NATO attempts to deliver ammunition to Ukraine? There’s a lot of danger there.” “We are prosecuting our own hybrid warfare now – economic war… Russia will go back to the Soviet Union on steroids.” “The disaster in Ukraine can only lead to Putin leaving office a lot earlier. And it may bring the entire system down.” “Russia has entered a quagmire that will lead to an embarrassing defeat. No amount of state propaganda can cover up that.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the world, but not the way Putin wanted. With little to show for its 100,000 dead, Russia is exposed as weak and militarily inadequate. Now Russian interference in Western democracy and dirty oligarch money are under greater scrutiny than ever before. With Western democracies shocked into unity, does the Ukraine War provide an opportunity to make a new, more secure free world? In our season finale, Arthur Snell looks forward to a world after Ukraine and asks: How does Putin fall? How would a wounded Russian psyche react? Will the Russian Federation itself survive? And could we be at the beginning of a new and better era? Doomsday Watch will be back with a new series soon. Support us on Patreon and help us build our next season: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “Despite the war Ukrainians are fiercely optimistic… Everyone constantly talks about the future.” – Romeo Kokriatski “Europe has not really stepped up and 2023 needs to be the year it plays more of a leading role in repairing Ukraine.” – Jeremy Cliffe “Ukraine is helping to cure us of an addiction to dirty Russian money.” – Arthur Snell “The outcome of this war will determine the future of liberal democracies.” – Olga Tokariuk “The humiliation that came with the fall of the Soviet Union left a huge wound that was very useable for Putin and the people around him.” – Jade McGlynn Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The slow-motion breakdown of relations between Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s military has now accelerated into a fast-forward coup. Wagner mercenaries have taken control of Rostov - a Russian city which houses the headquarters of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. And now they are marching on Moscow. A worried Putin has made a national TV address and may even be onboard his special plane fleeing the country. Host Arthur Snell spoke to Doomsday Watch favourite Dr Mike Martin, military expert, academic and former soldier, for an emergency podcast on the latest developments. "These events effectively are the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine" “Putin will not be the president of Russia in six months’ time” “This is basic 101 on how to run a country - you don’t lose the monopoly of force” Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While much of the focus is on the ground war in Ukraine, there's another conflict Russia is fighting, dubbed 'hybrid war'. This involves the use of non-military methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news, and is being waged against western democracies including the UK. Helena Ivanov and Neil Barnett have written a report on the subject titled Russia’s Hybrid War Against the UK. They join Arthur Snell to discuss the conflict we can't see. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ Helena and Neil's report can be found here: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-uk/ “Hybrid warfare involves the use methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news.” - Helena Ivanov “Ukraine is the first time in the post-soviet era that Russia has come up against army with the means and will to resist.” - Neil Barnett “An increasing number of countries are realising the power of media, and are using it to try and influence global politics.” - Helena Ivanov “If Putin can convince those in western countries that sanctions are hurting them, he can create disunity.” - Helena Ivanov “Russian activity never stops, information warfare is always happening.” - Helena Ivanov DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A special taster of our new series. Search for Jam Tomorrow in your favourite podcast app or visit https://kite.link/JTS1 Episode One: Every Day Is Like D-Day. How did Britain’s dreams of a new postwar world go unfulfilled? And what does that mean for us today? In the first of a new documentary series from the makers of Oh God, What Now?, Ros Taylor looks at the legacy of the War itself. Ιdeals of the Blitz Spirit and dreams of wartime heroism still shape everything from pop culture and entertainment to the Brexit debate. But the truth of the War is more complex and less comforting. What will it take for us to see the Second World War – and ourselves – clearly? •  “If you’re going to have a foundation myth it might as well be one where you destroy Nazism.” – Al Murray •  “If the response to air raid wasn’t stoicism there was a fear that morale would break down.” – Lucy Noakes •  “The Keep Calm And Carry On poster was designed for a type of war that never arrived.” – Henry Irvine •  “Britain went into the war not alone but at the head of the world’s biggest empire… When Britain went to war, so did vast part of the world.” – Lucy Noakes Written and presented by Ros Taylor. Produced by Jade Bailey. Voiceovers by Imogen Robertson. Original music by Dubstar. Lead producer: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Jam Tomorrow is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran is fanning the flames. What happens next? Gavin Esler talks to Helen Lackner, author of Yemen In Crisis, to find out who the Houthi are, what they want, what their rebellion means for the West… and whether the war could spread. (This edition recorded before the US/UK missile actions) Follow The Bunker on your favourite podcast provider for daily explainers, interviews and untold stories from the worlds of politics and current affairs – all bite-sized for your commute. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Art by James Parrett. Bunker music by Kenny Dickinson. TINAD music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER and THIS IS NOT A DRILL are Podmasters Productions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What happens when one party in the world’s most powerful democracy no longer believes in democracy? The Republican assault on America’s elections and democratic system has worsened critically since we examined it in Season One. Now bitterly divided and reeling from the Jan 6 attacks, the USA stands on the brink of another Trump presidency. Will it become a democracy in name only? Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “Democracy is on life-support in the United States.” – Brian Klaas “We have a predictably conservative court, and it’s out of step with mainstream politics in the US.” – Jamal Greene “American fascism is nothing new, it just wasn’t in the White House before.” – Sarah Churchwell “Neoliberalism is over. There’s a realisation now in the West that we can’t rely on Russia and China for our goods and not pay a political price for it.” – Arthur Snell “Political polarisation and hatred for the other side has reached such a point that one of the parties is willing to countenance the erosion of democracy.” – Idrees Kahloon Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States.  At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China.  In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideological and economic rivalry, as China expert Kerry Brown discusses his new book The Taiwan Story, How A Small Island Will Dictate The Global Future.  And to find out how we got here, Oriana Skylar Mastro, fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, discusses her book Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, to chart China’s economic explosion, growing military power and expanding global influence. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After an astonishing seven days in Russia, Doomsday Watch is back to answer some of the biggest questions following the aborted Wagner rebellion.  How will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived insurrection affect Russia and its war of aggression on Ukraine? Few understand the machinations and manoeuvres of Russian politics like Christopher Steele - former head of the Russia desk at MI6 and the man behind the famous Trump dossier in 2016, which investigated Russia’s links to US politics.  The director of consultancy Orbis Business Intelligence joins Arthur Snell to discuss the corruption which rots Russian elite society and drove Prigozhin’s challenge. And speaking from Kyiv - Doomsday Watch regular Dr Jade McGlynn - author of recent books Russia’s War and Memory Makers and researcher at King's College London. Arthur and Jade discuss developments in Ukraine and how Russian society is responding to Vladimir Putin’s attempts to shore up control following the rebellion.  “A lot of this revolves around corrupt wealth, and vast amounts of it.” – Christopher Steele “I suspect that there was a falling out between Prigozhin, Shoigu and others over the spoils of war in Ukraine.” – Christopher Steele “I think a lot of Ukranians are, at the very least, enjoying watching the spiders fight in a jar, as they call it.” – Jade McGlynn Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer: Liam Tait. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to journalist William Yang in Taipei and China expert Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney about a decades-old conflict that is heating up alarmingly. • “China tried to drum up rhetoric that the election was a choice between war and peace… This sabre-rattling only worked among the older generation.” – William Yang • “There’s not much the US could do in the short-term if China decided to move.” – Richard McGregor • “Xi has a ton of enemies, from people whose careers he destroyed in his anticorruption campaign to more liberal Chinese… They are waiting for him to stumble.” – Richard McGregor Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Additional music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption, bribery and cronyism aren’t just criminal matters. International alliances of corrupt states and their enablers are undermining democracies and international law, creating a world without rules where everything and anyone can be bought. From Putin’s gangster state to COVID corruption and favouritism in the UK, the West’s response has been feeble. Is Kleptocracy the real threat to global stability? Emma Beals explores an existential danger with anti-corruption writer Sarah Chayes – author of Everybody Knows: Corruption in America – and Guardian investigations correspondent and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth Tom Burgis. • “If Trump wins, more than ever US policy will be up for sale.” – Sarah Chayes • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. • When you buy books through our affiliate bookshop you’re helping fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended Israel in its war with Hamas; and why China is now the economic master of Russia.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan. Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia’s invasion undermines the foundation of not only Europe, but the entire international order.” “Japan has condemned Russia’s invasion since the very beginning.” “Like many world neighbours, Russia and Japan have numerous unresolved and difficult issues.” “Japan’s path to a ‘Russia-Free’ economy is not an easy one.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times?  Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, ranging up to 60% on goods from China. Trade wars and worldwide economic dislocation loom. What can leaders do to plan and prepare for his return to power? Gavin Esler talks to Peter Ricketts – retired senior diplomat, crossbench peer, former UK National Security Adviser and former chair of the UK Joint Intelligence Committee – about the global impact of Trump 2.0.  • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a week of drastic escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, what will come next? Recording on October 1st just as reports emerged from the US warning of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Gavin Esler spoke to Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, to discuss Iran’s response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not a Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Ukraine's military continues to reclaim swathes of land from Russia, could this past week be a watershed moment in the war? How did Kyiv's forces manage it? And if Putin does lose the war, what will instability in the Kremlin mean for the rest of Europe? Mike Martin, author and War Studies fellow at King's College London, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war update. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ Get tickets to our upcoming London live show: https://www.tickettext.co.uk/etmejHAuba “The Ukrainians are really good at misdirecting the Russians.” “Armies tend to mirror their country’s culture. Russia has a very hierarchical army.” “Russia’s army is conscripted, which means lowly skilled and lowly motivated recruits.” “If I was the Ukrainian enemy I wouldn’t go anywhere near the Donbas.” “In this process of the transfer of power in Russia, what happens to nuclear weapons? There are five thousand of them.” “If Ukraine can get down to the Black Sea coast, that is potentially war-ending.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Could the German government’s historic vote to back a major rearmament plan prove a turning point for the whole of Europe? To discuss the German response to European security concerns, the threat of Russian aggression and an increasingly unreliable relationship with the United States, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nicolai von Ondarza from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Executive Producer: Martin Bojtos. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine just Putin’s monstrous folly? Or does the Russian military have even bigger problems? Arthur Snell hears from KCL Lecturer for German and European Studies Alexander Clarkson about how a flawed image of Ukraine as a failed state sowed the seeds of Russia’s embarrassment. And how, when Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he inadvertently began training a generation of fighters who do not know how to give up. Sound quality warning! This time Arthur records from a car park in Swindon. Never let it be said that we don’t go the extra mile for the Doomsday Watch faithful. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “How are you going to occupy a country of 21m people with a force of 150,000 troops? It’s La La Land.” “The Russians talked themselves into a position where they had to attack something.” “What really matters is, when everything goes to hell around you, can you stay calm? Some 400,000 Ukrainians have crossed that psychological threshold. Whatever hits them, they can do what has to be done." “Everything the Russians have done is just very… weird. Everything they do triggers what they’re trying to prevent.” “If Ukraine survives, very mid-sized states will conclude that, you know what? We can fuck the Americans or the Chinese.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Presidency would mean for Ukraine’s freedom.  We’re proud that Oz, a seasoned reporter, film-maker and podcasters, is joining the TINAD team. He’ll be hosting special editions on Ukraine and other flashpoints around the world at regular intervals. Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. • “The problem is the people watching the war on their screens and not taking account of how it’s happening in reality, on the ground.” – Maria Avdeeva, Ukrainian defence analyst • “The Brits understand this conflict far better than the Americans, for the simple reason that the Brits have a presence embedded on the ground.” – Michael Weiss, The Insider • “Everyone in Ukraine is aware that the war will be long. Ukraine will win. There is no other option. But it won’t be as fast as we were hoping a year ago.” – Maria Avdeeva • “Trump’s first impeachment was over Ukraine and he sees it as an abscess to be lanced… A Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine.” – Michael Weiss Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has few friends – but one is Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko. Belarusian democracy activist and reporter Hanna Liubakova talks to Arthur Snell from exile in Lithuania, to explain how Lukashenko dragged her country into the war – and what the world can expect from Putin’s stooge. What price will Belarus pay for Lukashenko’s fealty? We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Lukashenko has made us a full-fledged aggressor in this war… We in Belarus believe this is high treason.” “Most Belarusians don’t want this war. They don’t want to threaten our neighbour.”  “Lukashenko is giving away our sovereignty and independence to Russia… He’s not making the major decisions. Putin is.” “We had seen Donbass, Crimea, Georgia, Moldova… but we could not imagine that a fully-fledged attack on a sovereign country could take place.” “The weaker Lukashenko is, the weaker Putin is.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump is dismantling USAID, pulling the rug on vital humanitarian aid and development funding, and countries across the West have followed suit in slashing foreign aid budgets.  To discuss the grim ramifications of Western governments turning their back on overseas aid, and what the world can do in response, Emma Beals talks to President of Refugees International Jeremy Konyndyk, and Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive at ODI Global. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kyiv is under siege but Putin’s invasion is going badly. How far will Russia’s ruler go to win his monstrous gamble? And what can the West do to stop him? In the first of our irregular Ukraine War bulletins we talk to Ukrainian journalists Artyom Liss and Kyiv-based Romeo Kokriatski about the balance of power in Ukraine, the resolve of President Zelensky, and Putin’s doomsday psychology. We’ll be releasing special Ukraine War bulletins on an irregular basis as new developments arise. Help us keep podcasting, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/doomsdaywatch “It seems crazy that it has only been six days. At this point, I can’t even remember what peace was like.” – Romeo Kokriatski “I don’t think anyone could have predicted this level of carnage, this level of destruction or this level of madness.” – Artyom Liss DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With the war heading into a sixth month, where will the conflict go next? How are both sides doing when it comes to ammunition? Is NATO really united in its objectives? And how Russia's rhetoric playing out in the Global South? Dr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, joins Arthur Snell for the second of two war bulletins to look at the future direction of the conflict.  We're currently running a listener survey to hear what you think. Complete it to be in with a chance of winning a Doomsday Watch t-shirt: https://0jsbaoous3m.typeform.com/to/Nzg2KRQJ?typeform-source=t.co We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “The Russians have plenty of unguided ammunition and they can manufacture more of it.”  “Western sanctions will hamper Russia’s ability to manufacture certain weaponry.”  “If I was watching this as China, thinking about Taiwan, I would be saying NATO lacks legs.”  “What we’ve seen in Ukraine is how dangerous it is when the credibility of your deterrence fails.”  “Just running the Ukrainian government is going to cost the EU and US a lot of money over the coming months.”  “We can’t get too excited about Russian diplomacy.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We often think of the Middle East as a battleground of Western and Russian influence. In reality, one great rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran drives our world, rather than us shaping theirs. From the Gulf and Iraq Wars through al-Qaeda and Islamic State to our modern energy security crisis, colossal events that determine the fates of millions are decided by an invisible war few of us can even see. Arthur Snell goes back beyond the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and WWII to uncover the hidden conflict that shapes everything. Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “We tell ourselves we interfere because we WANT their oil. Instead we’re sucked into a region we don’t understand because we NEED their oil.” – Arthur Snell “These conflicts changed everything… They unleash religion as a dominant factor in culture, in politics, and in militancy.” – Kim Ghattas “When America drew secular nationalist Iraq into an anti-terrorist action, they created a cauldron of chaos that persists to this day.” – Arthur Snell Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends? Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem. • “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck • “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps • “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck • “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For decades the Islamic Republic of Iran used its ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to create conflict and shore up its power in the Middle East and beyond. But in 2024 Iran’s plans and power fell apart in spectacular fashion, from Assad’s fall in Syria to Israel’s devastating attacks on its proxy groups. Once able to export chaos with impunity, Tehran is now in a state of unprecedented weakness. And it faces the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who enacted a strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran in his previous term.  What does 2025 hold for Iran? Gavin Esler talks to Hagai M. Segal, New York University London professor and Middle-East advisor, and Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • This episode is supported by Proton Mail, go to http://proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the uncontrolled spread of A.I., deepfakes and disinformation technology? Emma Beals talks to “Godfather of democracy studies” Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, and Katie Harbath – former Facebook Public Policy Director, and founder of Anchor Change – about a critical year for democracy.     Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “When Russia invaded in 1939, Finland was in quite a similar position to Ukraine today.” “We joined the EU because we were afraid of Russia, but going to NATO at that time would’ve been too much.” “The defence of Finland is not just a question for the military, but for the whole of society.” “The last poll showed 62% of Finns are in favour in joining NATO, a complete reversal from six months ago.” “My guess is that Finland will be NATO members before the end of this year. It’s now or never.” “These threats Russia is making about Sweden and Finland joining NATO are nothing new. They’ve been making them for over 20 years.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Ukraine's military retakes over 3,000 sq km during a rapid counter-offensive in the east, local journalist Romeo Kokriatski joins Arthur Snell to discuss the remarkable advance of Kyiv's forces, the falling morale of Russian troops, and what this means for the conflict going forward. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ Get tickets to our upcoming London live show: https://www.tickettext.co.uk/etmejHAuba “The scale of Russia’s retreat has taken even the Ukrainian generals by surprise.” “Russia in the most basic terms, broke and ran.” “The Russian tactic of trying to intimidate of Ukraine has not worked. Who knows what is going on in their heads?” “Russia’s military capability has been so degraded that they can no-longer fight over two fronts.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation.  With multiple wars and a new phase of global disorder upon us, has the West forgotten about countering the threat of ISIS? Emma Beals assesses the state of ISIS worldwide and the foreign policy response to its continued threat with Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, and discusses their presence in Africa with Ryan O’Farrell, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and the co-author of The Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront. This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of the key issues surrounding Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the impact on it's economy. Western nations have imposed an unprecedented level of sanctions, but they don't seem to be having the intended effect. Why is this? Is Russia's economy really as resilient as it seems? Dr. Maria Shagina, an international sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war bulletin. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ Get tickets to our upcoming London live show: https://www.tickettext.co.uk/etmejHAuba “Sanctions have failed to deter Russia, and their impact has been much less than expected.” “It will definitely be a harsh winter, but a lot depends on how cold it will be.” “Russia’s infrastructure is geared towards the west. This poses problems when exporting.” “Finding a new mode of survival will be key for the Russian regime.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’s calculus, the balance of power… and whether Iran’s claim that “the issue is concluded” is as much a prayer as a statement. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year since Hamas’s attacks on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s devastation of Gaza, the conflict spills over to Lebanon – and brings Tel Aviv and Tehran into direct military confrontation. Gavin Esler explores hopes for a ceasefire and political resolution in the Middle East with diplomacy expert Randa Slim, and Dr H A Hellyer – scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and senior associate fellow of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, RUSI. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter? Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means.  Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week.  • “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.”  • “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.” • “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.”  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies? Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at King’s College London, and Middle East expert Dr Talal Mohammad to find out how MBZ is buying his way to power. • “9/11 was a formative moment for him. He saw how powerful these Islamist networks could be in his own country… it brought about a perception of ‘If you’re not with us, you’re against us’.” – Dr Andreas Krieg • “As long as the major world powers are divided, then the UAE, Saudi and the others will try to exploit that situation.” – Dr Talal Mohammad • “Everyone who knows him from Sandhurst says he’s not one of these spoilt princes. He is highly disciplined and he has a vision of what he wants for the UAE.” – Dr Andreas Krieg Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount.  What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This crisis has exposed India’s vulnerabilities, they’re very reliant on Russia for their defence capabilities.” “As this conflict has dragged on, the Indian Government has become increasingly uncomfortable with its position.” “Ironically India is the only country that needs both Russia and the West on its side.” “The Covid period showed that over reliance on China is not healthy.” “Russia and China getting together is perhaps one of the worst nightmares for India.” “India is drifting away from Russia and towards the West, that is a long-term trend.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special edition: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy embodies the courage of his nation, and his charisma and determination have made him a hero to the free world. But what this former actor-comedian turned war leader tick? Arthur Snell talks to Steven Derix, co-author of Zelensky*: Ukraine's President and His Country with Marina Shelkunova, about the astonishing story of an actor who played a president on TV before being thrust into the role of real-life wartime leader. (Yes, there are two ways of spelling it) Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and help us develop the next series of our globe-spanning documentaries: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

COVID tested world health systems to near-destruction and killed more than 6.6 million people. Now new infectious diseases are emerging and the antibiotics we depend on no longer work the way they used to. Arthur Snell meets doctors, epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists and veterans of the Coronavirus battles to discover the mounting threat of new zoonotic diseases which leap from animal to human, how COVID conspiracism is undermining our efforts against future pandemics… and how ill-prepared we are to deal with them, Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “We could be looking at the end of modern medicine as we know it.” – Arthur Snell “New pathogens are in an arms race with humans… We were stunned at how fast COVID was able to evolve against our defences.” – Prof Ravi Gupta “Some experts worry that COVID wasn’t the worst-case scenario. The next pandemic could be much more deadly.” – Laura Spinney “It won’t take many mutations to turn bird flu into a human-to-human disease… And then you’ve got a whole new pandemic.” – Prof Christina Pagel “An ordinary trip to hospital could become a high risk journey across a minefield of superbugs.” – Arthur Snell Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Try the new science and psychology podcast Why? – from the producers of This Is Not A Drill. Why? is the podcast for curious minds. Every Thursday, presenter Emma Kennedy talks to experts and theorists to discover the science and psychology of why we are the way we are. In the first episode: Why do people join cults? Emma Kennedy talks to world-leading cult deprogrammer Rick Alan Ross and NXIVM cult survivor Sarah Edmondson to discover the strange allure of the cult mindset. Go here to hear the complete episode. Follow on your favourite podcast app so you never miss an episode. WHY? is presented by Emma Kennedy. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production and theme music by Jade Bailey. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Artwork by James Parrett. Additional music is from Artlist.io. WHY? is a Podmasters Production.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has never stood as close to the apocalypse as it does today. Hosted by ARTHUR SNELL, a former British diplomat and counter-terrorism operative who has seen service in Yemen, Helmand and Zimbabwe, DOOMSDAY WATCH meets experts and eyewitness for an unflinching look at the threats that conventional media ignores. On this first edition: Is a toxic combination of extreme partisanship, detached elites and Trump’s incitement driving the world’s greatest democracy to a second Civil War? • “This is the story of a great project that has torn itself apart from the inside.” – ARTHUR SNELL • “At what point do we stop saying this is a democratic country?” – BRIAN KLAAS • “Where there is anger and polarised states, democracy may not work any more.” – JACK GOLDSTONE Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two weeks into Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and things aren’t going to plan. Kyiv is still yet to fall, and Russian troops have failed to make substantial progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance.  Defence analyst and military historian Dr Peter Caddick-Adams joins Arthur Snell to pinpoint where Russia’s shameful war went wrong… and what could happen next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia still has conscription, and we in the west don’t understand how badly conscripts are treated.” “Zelensky has become Churchill. His words and the way he delivers them have a real sense of validity.” “Standing up to Putin is like standing up to Josef Stalin. It’s simply not an option.” “While Russia wants to control Ukraine, it doesn’t want to occupy it. Their army is nowhere near big enough.” “The more Putin pulls off his gloves, the more the world is turns back to 1989.” “This is a war where history is really relevant. There are parallels with city battles from World War 2.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t only threatened by war, drought and Islamist terror. The “Africa Corps” wing of Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries are vying with the Gulf States for power, influence and Africa’s resources. Where did it go wrong for democracy in Africa – and is there any way to fix this delicate region? With the Sudanese journalist Dallia Abdelmoniem and Dr Ebenezer Obadare, Senior Fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The free world is reeling and Putin is jubilant as Trump goes over the heads of Ukraine and Europe to “negotiate” directly with Russia – cutting Zelenskyy and European leaders out of talks in Saudi Arabia. Will the two autocrats simply carve Ukraine up between them? Will they heed Zelenskyy’s demand that there be no settlement without Ukraine’s participation? And given Russia’s record of deception, is the notion of a fair and lasting peace just a naive fantasy? Oz Katerji hears the reaction to the Riyadh talks from Kyiv with Maria Avdeeva, security expert and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What role does the Donbas have to play in the Ukraine conflict? Dr Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and an observer of the 2014 Donbas ceasefire, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the significance of the region, six months into Russia's invasion. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Ukraine is drifting closer to NATO in spirit, but it’s not getting the protection that NATO offers.”  “The cost of failed Ukrainian counteroffensive probably outweighs the gains of a successful one.”  “Russia and Ukraine are neighbouring countries, and they’ve got to find a way to co-exist going forward.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world? Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “MBS has a personal like of Putin, and in some ways he’s modelled himself on him.” “America is not going to defend MBS against a popular uprising.” “The Saudi Army cannot vanquish ragtag militias in Yemen. It needs Western security guarantees.” “Bread is the staple across the Arab region... Egypt imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine or Russia.” “Riots about bread prices quickly turn into riots about corruption, mismanagement and repression.” “The only group who can check a dictator and end his power for good is his own people.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrainians have reason to be optimistic about the future. • “It is clear that if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Putin will not stop there… It would doom Europe to decades of war.” • “The resolve of Ukrainians has not weakened… But we don’t see the West’s words matched by deeds.” • “Avdiivka is not such a huge victory for Russia… The price that Russia has paid is huge.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of a war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.1: How Russia’s febrile history, Putin’s paranoid resentment and Western complacency led to an historic crime against a peaceful nation, the destruction of the rules-based international order, the largest European land action since the Second World War… and a conflict of unprecedented brutality. In weekly episodes Arthur Snell talks to soldiers, civilians, analysts and journalists to tell the story of the war and capture the enormity of Russia’s crimes. This is the first draft of history. Want to hear Ep.2 right now, without ads? Support the show on Patreon at doomsdaywatch.co.uk to get every new episode a week early. “Putin has just started an epic global conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, one whose outcome is still in doubt.” – Arthur Snell “To see these places – deep mud, wet, such cruel conditions – you’d think it’s not too far from Verdun or Passchendaele.” – Paul Conroy “We don’t do what we do out of hatred, we do it out of love for justice and for the people we care about. This is a battle of life and darkness.” – ‘George’, Georgian National Legion Photograph courtesy Paul Conroy Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony. ‘Thy Resurrection’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery. ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir. Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump’s volatile behaviour raises questions for intelligence sharing across the globe – so how unsafe could he make our world? Is the Five Eyes alliance between Britain, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Trump-proof? And how might his actions impact it? Professor Ciaran Martin of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, and former chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre, tells Gavin Esler how a rogue president could impact the free world’s intelligence services. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.  • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Managing editor Jacob Jarvis. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.    www.podmasters.co.uk   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia's invasion of Ukraine lead to a seismic u-turn in Germany, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a huge increase in military spending. What are the implications for Europe? And as other European nations reduce their need for Russian energy, why has Berlin has been reluctant to follow suit? Annette Dittert, London Bureau Chief for German broadcaster ARD, joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Germany's military u-turn means for Europe, and why Scholz is having difficulty stamping out Russian oil and gas. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Germany had thought of itself as a pacifist country, then Scholz announced all of that will change.”  “The German Government is afraid of its own courage.”  “Germany has a massive dependency on Russian oil and gas, something Scholz inherited from the past government.”  “Even after helping Ukraine on many levels, there is still reluctance from Scholz to offer full-throated support.”  “The worry about Russians coming back into Berlin is still there.”  “Germany has to get its act together, it’s crucial for the security of Europe.”  “It’s in the interests of Germany, and every democratic country, to stand up for Ukraine.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On his return to the White House this January, Donald Trump pledged to be a ‘peacemaker’, after insisting during his campaign that he would bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nearly three years into Russia’s all out war on its neighbour, its brutal attacks continue – with incremental territorial gains coming at the costs of thousands of lives. Yet Ukraine’s military still fights to hold the line. Has Trump really got the leverage to bring Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the table to sign a peace deal? In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses the future for Ukraine, Russia and US foreign policy with the US military’s former commander in Europe, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges. • Go to proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness. In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to pinpoint, suspicion has fallen on Russia, which Western security services have warned is engaged in ‘hybrid warfare’ - utilising sabotage, cyber attacks and other non-military hostile acts - in a bid to weaken NATO countries and destabilise Western democracies.  In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler discusses the threat to European infrastructure from undersea sabotage with Sophia Besch, a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And to assess the wider threat from potential hybrid warfare operations we hear from Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. • Go to http://proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why do key military sites in Russia have an unfortunate habit of bursting into flames? Journalist and former US special forces operative Jack Murphy pulls back the curtain on an audacious campaign of sleeper agent sabotage on Russian soil. This is the astonishing story of how the CIA works with the spy service of one NATO-friendly country to bring the Ukraine War home to Putin. Read Jack Murphy’s story here: https://jackmurphywrites.com/169/the-cias-sabotage-campaign-inside-russia/ Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “A NATO ally has inserted sleeper cells into Russia… this goes back ten to fifteen years.” “This operation kicked off on Day One of the invasion which indicates how long it was planned.” “US intelligence is framing these acts of sabotage as ‘Rogue Ukrainian operations’. What are the Russians going to do? Invade Ukraine?” “We essentially created an entire parallel intelligence service because Ukraine’s SBU was compromised by Russia.” Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage before it spreads?  Gavin Esler looks for answers with author and journalist Kim Ghattas who is based in Beirut – a Hamas stronghold – and Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland, author of The Escape Artist: The Man Who Broke Out of Auschwitz to Warn the World. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. • “Iran has been using the Palestinian cause as a way to assert itself as a leader in the region for 45 years.” – Kim Ghattas • “Netanyahu needs to be in the Prime Minister’s chair to stay out of prison.” – Jonathan Freedland • “Hamas thought everyone would pitch in after their attacks, but there has been no uprising. In the Arab world you’re starting to hear ‘Iran will fight Israel to the last Arab… or to the last Sunni.’” – Kim Ghattas • “Like most militaries, Israel does not want to see photographs of dead children. To Hamas, photos like those are an asset in the battle for world opinion.” – Jonathan Freedland Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Weaponised drones have revolutionised warfare, enabling governments – and others – to kill at arm’s length without warning. But drones are just part of an arsenal of next-generation weaponry whose very presence gives new impetus to conflict, from canine war droids to autonomous battle systems and beyond. Arthur Snell takes us from the 1991 Gulf War and the Highway of Death to 9/11 and the rise of asymmetric warfare – to discover how we opened a Pandora’s Box of new and lethal technology. Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “Anyone can buy a surprisingly powerful drone on Amazon… and they’re being used in warfare now.” – Ulrike Franke “All future conflicts will be drone conflicts. The drone will always get through.” – James Rogers “If you rewrite the rules so that you can strike anyone on a faraway battlefield, you can’t be surprised when others do the same to you.” – Arthur Snell Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is there more to Trump’s designs on Greenland than just whim and chaos? As climate change melts the Arctic ice, global powers are positioning themselves over newly-opened resources, trade routes and strategic opportunities – and Trump’s America no longer abides by international rules or alliances. Will the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic become a new arena for old-fashioned great power rivalry? Klaus Dodds, an expert on the polar regions and professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, explains all to Gavin Esler. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.4: Putin planned to break Europe’s resolve under the twin effects of his assault on Ukraine and his energy war. Instead he bound NATO and the EU together more tightly than ever. This is the story of how Putin’s recklessness created the ‘Zeitenwende’, the turning point in European history where German illusions about Russian cooperation faded away… and Ukraine became a new bulwark of freedom.  Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “Putin was sending a message to the West. You guys aren’t serious. You failed in Iraq. You were kicked out of Afghanistan. Are you really going ot do anything to stop me?” – Arthur Snell • “Europe is now trying to focus its geopolitical muscle against Russia… Ukraine will be a shield against Russia into the future.” – Liana Fix • “Zelenskyy may be the perfect figurehead… Stoic, committed, brave, taciturn at times, but inspirational.” – Arthur Snell • “I worry that, if the Russians win, what does Putin do next? What if he looks at other ‘historic Russian lands’?” – Steven Pifer Photograph courtesy Alexey Furman Incidental music in order of appearance: ‘The Blessed I Have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He talks to Gavin Esler about the scale of the challenge, the damage done by European governments’ shortsightedness about the Kremlin’s escalating provocations, and why the advent of another Trump Presidency is more than a wake-up call. • “These are decisions that should have been taken years and decades ago. They should not have taken the threat of a Trump to push them to into action.” • “Russia has been at war with us in every domain except open military conflict for over a decade now.” • Twitter refugee? Follow TINAD, Gavin Esler and Keir Giles on BlueSky. • Buy Who Will Defend Europe? through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund TINAD by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage? Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative – and Bruce Jones, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, to discover the new conflict on the High Seas. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East. Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen. The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the devastating reprisals in Gaza? For further context listen to our Houthi explainer with Helen Lackner here: http://listen.podmasters.uk/tinadwebsite?at=1001l39LM Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

New Series: The global order was already teetering badly before Putin invaded Ukraine. Now democracies are shellshocked by a world suddenly in permanent crisis. In the first of our new series, ex-foreign services diplomat Arthur Snell surveys the dangerous reality of the world after Ukraine – and sees how a string of factors from oil power to the botched Iraq invasion to the rise of the authoritarians has led up to a new global crisis… where no-one is in control. Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and get every episode a week early and ad-free, plus much more: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “The battle between democracy and authoritarianism is going to define the 21st Century.” – Brian Klaas “The West has created a situation where the enduring disorder begets yet more disorder.” – Jason Pack “There’s a joke among Ukrainians that Vladimir Putin is the most successful CIA agent in history…” – Romeo Kokriatski “Starting this war was the end of Putin’s regime.” – Romeo Kokriatski “Hot money from the former Soviet space has influenced our elections… I don’t see the 20th century institutions as fit for purpose for these 21st century challenges.” – Jason Pack “If you’re Putin or Xi Jinping what you want is a disordered West. Trump would accomplish that in a day.” – Brian Klaas Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer: Jacob Archbold. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After decades of treaties and diplomacy curbing fears over the use of nuclear weaponry, does today’s conflicted world surface the threat of a new nuclear age? Following the brinkmanship of the Cold War, an era of non-proliferation saw stockpiles of weapons cut dramatically. Yet concerns grow that nuclear arsenals may expand again. Gavin Esler discusses a potential new arms race with Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and hears about the history of non-proliferation from Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.   www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading? The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first of our semi-regular panel discussions. • “It’s very simple. If you don’t want to worry about conscription then provide Ukraine with the support it needs.” – Oz Katerji • “The US was trying very hard to steer clear of the Middle East before October… They’ve been brought back unwillingly and they don’t have a lot of choice in the matter.” – Emma Beals • “My strong impression is that Donald Trump is out for revenge against both Ukraine and Zelenskyy… There is real concern about a Trump presidency.” – Oz Katerji Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special bonus edition. Our latest series was a whirlwind tour of the apocalypse, from Ukraine to the Arctic to cyberspace and beyond. What did Arthur Snell learn? Our presenter sits down with Andrew Harrison for the big takeaways. Has Putin already lost the Ukraine War? Can a paranoid Republican Party really govern? Could there be a nuclear conflict after all? Plus questions from our splendid Patreon backers. We’re already hard at work on a new and very different series of Doomsday Watch. Support us on Patreon to help make it a reality: https://www.patreon.com/doomsdaywatch Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Climate change doesn’t just mean dire consequences for food, water, human migration and long-term human survival. As the seas heat up they create critical security issues, from impacts on military sonar to spikes in turbulence threatening commercial flights, from new theatres of war to suddenly fragile states and strengthened terrorist groups. Are we ignoring a new source of global instability?  Emma Beals talks to New Scientist’s environment reporter Madeleine Cuff about why the oceans are warming and where – and asks Pentagon advisor, strategist and Polar Institute fellow Sherri Goodman about why hotter, more dangerous seas are a “threat multiplier”.  • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Trump seemingly determined to destroy any vestige of a US security guarantee for Europe, is the NATO era coming to an end? Gavin Esler talks to Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who served as Britain’s Director-General of Joint Force Development, Strategic Command, about Europe’s new security reality. Can Europe cope with the threat of an expansionist Russia on its Eastern flank, and a US President who shows no interest in shared values and alliances? • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Go to http://proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war? Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nuclear analyst Rachel Minyoung Lee and Seoul-based journalist and NKnews.org founder Chad O’Carroll about the road to North Korea’s new aggression, its increasingly cosy relationships with Putin and China… and what Kim really wants. • “In a crowded field of human rights abusers, North Korea is regarded as the worst.” – Gavin Esler • “Times could not be better for North Korea… Ukraine showed them that the US will not engage another nuclear power on the battlefield.” – Rachel Minyoung Lee • “Korea is the ultimate dictatorship. It learned from the fall of socialism and other totalitarian systems how to deal with that risk.” – Chad O’Carroll Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance. With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation. But perhaps predictably in an age of war in Europe - there remain tensions and very big questions. The biggest of all - what to do about Ukraine? To discuss what it means for the war in Ukraine; the nature of global security, and the still-dominant role the USA plays in this post-WW2 organisation, Arthur Snell is joined by:  - Dr Ulrike Franke: senior fellow at the European Council on foreign relations  - John Lough: Chatham House associate fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme and the former NATO man in Moscow  - Steven Pifer: former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assitant Producer Liam Tait. Art by Jim Parrett. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Cold Warriors of the postwar world never dreamed that Western democracies would come to rely on a global information network – and that our very openness could be turned against us. As the stories of Brexit, COVID and Trump coalesce into one nightmare tale of disinformation and weaponised lying, Arthur Snell asks whether democracy can survive in a post-truth world. If you control the information space, do you control the future? And after the pandemic, can we withstand the infodemic? Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. • “If you’ve got enough money, you can ensure that people hear your talking points day in day out, hour after hour.” – Amil Khan • “COVID was a means to test these weapons. Climate denial is the next battleground, and it will make the anti-lockdown and COVID stuff look like child’s play.” – Darren Loucaides • “If tech companies can’t moderate memes and text, how on Earth are they going to moderate the Metaverse?” — Nina Jankowicz • “Soviet Union was Terminator 1: bulky and ungainly. Now Putin’s Russia is Terminator 2, very fluid and adaptable.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “Our systems are threatened not by people who are suffering but by comfortable middle class people who are bored and looking to go on a crusade.” — Tom Nichols • “What is shocking is how fast people will jump from a failure of policy itself to the idea that the whole edifice of liberal democracy needs to be junked in favour of a celebrity strongman.” — Tom Nichols • “Our openness is a weakness. We can’t go into Russia and broadcast like the BBC can – but RT can come here and say anything it likes.” – Nina Jankowicz DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The sinking of the Russian warship Moskva highlighted the importance of naval conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war. Why is the Black Sea so vital? And is Ukraine up to the task of stopping Putin's fleet of frigates? Former Royal Navy Captain Chris Clough joins Arthur Snell to discuss the intricacies of naval warfare, what the Moskva sinking means for the conflict, and how real the risk of escalation is as the war moves forward. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: http://doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “The Russians have always invested in their Black Sea fleet.”  “The Moskva is a ship designed around its weapon systems. It epitomises the Cold War.”  “Despite the sinking of the Moskva, Russia still has two very capable frigates in the Black Sea.”  “I would be much more worried about mines that we can’t see than those that we can.”  “Money doesn’t translate into military capability.”  “There are too many unknowns to risk any kind of escalation.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russian dark money has infiltrated Western politics for years, leading to increased support for the Kremlin and their actions in capitals across the developed world. To discuss the how and why behind Russia's financial meddling, Iain Campbell, financial investigator and journalist, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Unravelling the influence of Russian money in Western societies will take many years.”  “In practical terms, Orban is doing what he can to slow down the flow of weapons from the EU to Ukraine.”  “Campaigns such as ‘No to AV’ and those for Scottish Independence had links to Russia.”  “The Russians view European integration as an existential threat, they want a Europe of small nations they can dominate.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After 9/11 the West invaded Afghanistan and Iraq to remake them as friendly, terror-free liberal democracies. But the unintended consequences were historic disaster, countless dead and the humbling of Western power, symbolised by the shameful evacuation of Kabul in 2021. How did we get it so catastrophically wrong? Arthur Snell, who served in Lashkar Gah in Helmand Province, explores the flawed thinking that generated the very insurgencies the West was trying to suppress. Has the West built a world of forever wars that it can’t win? Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. •  “Every way you look, the Western way of war burns through cash. And that creates incentives for warlords, generals and Prime Ministers.” – Arthur Snell •  “When we went to Helmand I really thought we were going to get this right… And over several command meetings I started to think, Do we really know what we’re doing?” – Frank Ledwidge •  “Having invaded these countries and toppled their governments, we didn’t know what to do next.” – Arthur Snell •  “She told me, the Afghan people hate you. They hate you because you make promises you don’t deliver on.” – Frank Ledwidge •  “No-one said ‘You can’t do counter-narcotics, and take away people’s livelihoods, in the same place you’re supposed to be winning hearts and minds.’” – Mike Martin •  “One of the reasons we crashed into Helmand was internal military politics. It suited the army to go in, to preserve its force structure.” – Mike Martin   DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s most powerful countries are in political crisis. Emmanuelle Macron’s big gamble to halt the progress of Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National seems to have paid off – for now. But Germany’s far right Alternative für Deutschland continues to eat into the national vote and the country’s post-war consensus. What does the rise of extremists who are soft on Putin, or even pro-Russia, mean for the safety of Europe? Gavin Esler asks Economist Paris bureau chief Sophie Pedder about France’s close shave with extreme nationalism, and whether that escape is temporary. And director of eurointelligence.com and New Statesman columnist Wolfgang Munchau explains what’s driving Germany’s dance with the far right. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his unhinged foreign policy pronouncements, including demands that Greenland and the Panama Canal be handed over to the US, and vague threats to annex Canada, Donald Trump is already setting governments on edge. How will the world cope with an America First foreign policy where chaos and uncertainty are features not bugs?  And as the self-styled dealmaker vows to bring a swift end to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, what do his nominations to key defence and security roles – among them hawks, libertarians and a TV news host – tell us about his priorities?  Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the ‘known unknowns’ is Amy Mackinnon, national security and intelligence correspondent at Foreign Policy magazine. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.5: As Putin’s assault falters and his army degenerates into retreat and atrocity, Russia’s self-image as a bulwark against fascism falls into tatters. Arthur Snell looks at the incompetence, factionalism, corruption and failure to plan which created this debacle – how Russia remains obsessed with the Great Patriotic War – how Chechnya and Georgia provided dry runs for Ukraine — and the cocktail of self-destructive impulses, self-pity and authority-worship that still drive ordinary Russians to support the war. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “At Hostomel, the Russian obsession with information security meant that they didn’t brief their own troops until it was too late.” – Jack Watling • “The Russian Army is a top-down organisation where initiative is frowned upon. It specialises in plodding assaults.” – Mike Martin • “You see Russia’s self-destructive tradition in its drinking and suicide rates, in the way power is distributed. We need to worry about that urge and who gets pulled into its vortex.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “The Russian attitude is, we saved the West from fascism. Now look at these ingrates.” – Jade McGlynn • “Putin was a pretty mediocre director of the FSB. He was always ‘talk big, fight small’ and Ukraine is his first truly big war, thrown together not by generals but by him and a few spooks.” – Mark Galeotti Photograph courtesy Anatolii Stepanov Incidental music in order of appearance: • Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of the Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can he square China’s goal of being the “workshop of the world” with its foreign policy? And will he really move against Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to distinguished China correspondent James Miles and political scientist and historian Professor Steve Tsang, co-author of The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, about China’s leader and his goals.   Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. The Ukraine war might have left her internationally isolated and starved of resources – but Putin and his oligarch court are adept at avoiding financial restrictions, cutting side deals that enable them to fund the war and protect their power. Are the West’s sanctions working? How can we tighten them? Is there really any difference between sanctions evasion and international criminal money laundering? And who are Putin’s true allies? Gavin Esler finds out from Maria Shagina – Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and Ian Garner of Poland’s Pilecki Institute, author of Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As tensions rise on the Ukrainian border, are we looking at the first ground war in Europe since 1945? In an emergency roundtable edition of Doomsday Watch, Arthur Snell asks a panel of experts what’s driving Putin’s thinking, how far he and Russia are willing to go to achieve their aims, and if a disastrous conflict can be averted. Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. “The question is less, ‘Is Russia going to invade?’ and more ‘When will Russia invade?’” - Romeo Kokriatski “The only person who knows what Putin is planning to do is Putin himself. It all depends on his mood when he wakes up in the morning.” - Artyom Liss “Putin saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe. I wouldn’t fault anyone for thinking that he may want to rebuild the empire.” - Romeo Kokriatski “Younger people who are more western-oriented, are quite embarrassed by Russia’s position on Ukraine.” - Artyom Liss “The longer this goes on, European partners are likely to become more aligned with each other .” - John Lough “Russian is only scared of NATO in that NATO prevents Russia from bullying its neighbours around.” - Romeo Kokriatski DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support? In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European defence? And what are the prospects for NATO in the case of a transatlantic rift in the alliance? Gavin Esler talks to Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Assistant Secretary General for defence investment at NATO. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’ve got a brand-new host: Gavin Esler, former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight. Gavin will be talking to highly experienced diplomats, academics and journalists to guide you through the world’s worsening geopolitics nightmare. New episodes start weekly from Weds 14 Nov 2023 – and two days early for Patreon supporters. Follow now on your favourite app. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The finale of our history of the Ukraine war – for now. As Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive begins and Putin responds with mere nihilistic destruction, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Now Arthur Snell takes stock of the war so far. Ukraine’s fight for freedom could preserves the security of Europe’s hinterlands, and Russia’s failures have shown how NOT to fight a war. But history tells us that the fall of great powers puts global peace in grave peril. How can we prevent chaos in Russia spilling out across Europe and perhaps beyond? Arthur speaks to: • Serhii Plokhy, Prof of Ukrainian History at Harvard and the Author of ‘The Russo-Ukrainian War’ • Luke Harding, journalist and author of Orwell-prize shortlisted ‘Invasion’ • Iuliia Osmalenko, former Ukrainian diplomat and Head of Globsec Kyiv Office • Dr Mike Martin, military analyst and author of ‘How to Fight A War’ • Oleskii Plotnikov, serving Ukrainian soldier and human rights lawyer Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Photograph: Getty Featuring poetry by Yuliya Musakovska, read by the author, and by Anastasia Afanasiva, read by translator Olga Livshin Incidental music in order of appearance: • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra • ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir • ‘A Quiet Night (Tyhoyi Nochi)' by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Artificial Intelligence is continuing to develop whether we like it or not. But how will it affect our lives, and what should we make of the endless doom-laden scenarios suggesting humans are about to be rendered obsolete by machines? How scared should we all be about A.I., and does it offer more opportunities, or potential dangers?  Gavin Esler discusses the benefits and risks of A.I. with Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global order. Jasmin Mujanović explains how Russia is pushing to reignite the simmering Serbia/Kosovo dispute. And Putin-watcher Mark Galeotti explains that while the brutal system that the Russian tyrant has built looks invulnerable, behind the façade it is worryingly brittle. • “For most of Putin’s reign Russia has been at declared or undeclared war with someone. What he likes is a certain low level of chaos.” – Mark Galeotti • “Russia saw Serbia as a really cheap opportunity to invest in low-level chaos… which is now becoming more serious.” – Jasmin Mujanović • “Putin is going to look at what will be politically bloody, hard-fought American Presidential election and see how he can use it to tear the United States apart.” – Mark Galeotti Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recently we held a live Zoom session with reporting legend John Sweeney, who joined Arthur Snell live from Kyiv to discuss the latest from the conflict. Out on general release, here is a shortened version of their discussion. If you'd like to get access to the entire Zoom, as well as future events, early episodes and merchandise, you can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: http://doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How Putin’s war has reshaped the world. In Ep.7: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the rules-based international order. Now the strongmen are scrambling to take advantage. Arthur Snell looks at vast powerplays of Russian information warfare and Chinese influence across Africa and the developing world. Will China see financing Putin’s faltering Forever War as a good bet? And what is in store for Putin now that there are Russian resistance units active inside Russia itself? Hear the finale of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War right now when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “Putin no longer believes he can win on the battlefield to the necessary level. He has to outlast the west. It’s all he’s got.“ – Mark Galeotti • “By targeting fissures in the UK and US and increasing grievances, Russia can keep us polarised and keep us distracted.” – Nina Jankowicz. • “There are centuries of slavery baked inside the Russian psyche. But it doesn’t give Putin an eternal lease on the Russian soul.” – John Sweeney • “Every global problem that we’ve got can be traced back to authoritarians.” – Brian Klaas • “More than ever before the Kremlin needs to divert attention away from the mess that’s unfolding in its own country.” – Arthur Snell • “If the Ukrainians humiliate his killing machine… then Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin in a box.” – John Sweeney Photograph: Getty Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony ‘The Blessed I have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir ‘Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As you wait for our second 10-part documentary season, set to be released on October 26th, here's the audio from our recent live show in London. Join Arthur as he sits down with nerve agent expert and former US Secret Service official Dan Kaszeta, as he talks about his crazy life working for US Presidents and the dangers of chemical weapons. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How did the Ukrainian people face down an invasion of unprecedented savagery from Putin’s Russia? And how did the battle for Ukraine’s capital shape the war that followed? Illia Ponomarenko is the author of the new book I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv and former defence correspondent at the Kyiv Independent. He talks to Oz Katerji about the experience of reporting under fire – and what it’s like for a people to defy subjugation. Buy I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime Kyiv through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more? Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace talks in Istanbul in October 2022, the myth that Boris Johnson sank them, and the danger of new ceasefire discussions, especially under Trump. He speaks to Yaroslav Trofimov – Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal and author of Our Enemies will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence – and Brookings Institute fellow Dr Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World. • “When Ukrainian forces entered Bucha, that was when everyone realised what happens under Russian rule… That it is not just a war to replace a government, it’s a war with genocidal intent.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “This war will be decided by which society cracks first.” – Yaroslav Trofimov • “There are election posters up in Moscow which say ‘Russia has no borders’… There is no indication that Russia is serious about a peace deal.” – Angela Stent Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war continues in Ukraine, how did the collapse of neoliberalism get us to the point of conflict in Europe? Are we entering a new era of authoritarianism? Professor Gary Gerstle, author of The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war bulletin. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support us on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Events like Brexit and Trump signified that politics as we knew it was breaking up.”  “Putin holds liberalism in all its forms responsible for all of the ills of the world.”  “Bill Clinton may have done even more than Reagan to create the Neoliberal system.”  “With the collapse of communism, capitalism could expand to a level not seen since before world war 1.”  “The invasion of Iraq was the biggest mistake in American foreign policy history.”  “The rise of authoritarianism signals the end of neoliberalism.”  “The form of authoritarian capitalism seen in Russia and China is not compatible with neoliberalism.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism? Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter Ricketts, Britain’s first National Security Adviser, former chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and author of Hard Choices – an exploration of Britain’s place in the world. • “All that’s certain in 2024 is uncertainty.” – Gavin Esler • “If there’s been a strategic loser in Ukraine so far, it’s Vladimir Putin… He’s been forced into a junior partnership with China.” – Peter Ricketts • “I’m not so worried about the far right in Europe. I’m much more worried about Trump in the White House.” – Peter Ricketts Buy Hard Choices through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At the heart of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the wider crisis affecting Europe, is the question of energy security. How did the West become so reliant on Russian oil and gas? And as the continent moves away from the Kremlin's energy supply, what will the impact be?  Helen Thompson, professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of Disorder, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the geopolitical fallout from Putin's invasion. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Out of the West European reaction to the Suez crisis came the first turn back to Soviet energy.”  “Russia wanted to be an Eurasian energy power, unlike the Soviet Union which was focused on Western Europe.”  “Before the Omicron variant last year, an energy crisis was already beginning to take shape.”  “Europe can’t go back to the geopolitical complacency that dominated the continent before Russia’s invasion.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nearly four months into the Ukraine-Russia war, where is the conflict at? After limited early progress, is Russia now beginning to gain ground, or are both sides grinding to a halt? And in the longer term, can the West sustain both the supply of arms to Ukraine, and it's unity? Defence Editor for the Economist Shashank Joshi joins Arthur Snell for an update on where the war is headed. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “As we speak, Russia is making some substantial tactical successes, but this isn’t everything.” “We are running low of some of the weaponry that we’re giving Ukraine.” “I’ve been trying to answer the question if the Russian army is bad, or if it’s a good army that’s been given bad orders?” “If Russia occupies the Donbas, it won’t sign a document and stop there.” “You don’t require a Trump victory in 2024 to dissolve the Western coalition.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again? Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, talks to Gavin Esler about the peace negotiations, the Trump/Putin dynamic and what could happen next. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The existential threats to world stability are working together. Autocrats in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are moving in concert with both their clients and fellow travellers in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Myanmar, Belarus and other despotisms. United not by ideology but by a love of repression, wealth and power, these new tyrants strike deals to consolidate their control and threaten their shared enemy: us. What does this League Against The Nations want? And how can we combat it? Pulitzer-winning author and historian Anne Applebaum talks to Gavin Esler about her new book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World.  • “Putin began his career by stealing money from St Petersburg, laundering it and bringing it back… His path to power came through Western financial institutions.” • “It’s one thing to fight a dictator with a bunch of soldiers in his palace. It’s another to fight one who has billions to buy the latest technology – or just bribe people.”  • “Putin developed a scorn for the West. ‘You let me steal, you’re corrupt.’ And the conviction that the West is corrupt feeds into modern autocracy.”  • “The kleptocracy comes first. The autocracy follows.”  • Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/thebunker to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices