The Reserve (Kaleb Nygaard)

Fellow Fed governance explorer Derek Tang joins the show to talk about the latest. From the nominations to Congressional debates about the Fed and everything in between!

on Twitter: @macroderek, @lhmeyermacro, @KalebNygaard

LHMeyer.com

Author of the hottest Fed book on the market today, Nick Timiraos, joins Steven Kelly and I to recap yesterday's FOMC meeting and talk about his new book. 

Trillion Dollar Triage book

FOMC meeting article

The two articles that inspired the book: (1) March 30, 2020 called “The Fed Transformed: Jay Powell Leads Central Bank into Uncharted Waters”, (2) April 27, 2020 called "The Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means to Be a Central Bank" w/Jon Hilsenrath.

on twitter: @NickTimiraos, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Congress should permanently remove the debt ceiling. But until they do that, the issue affects the Fed in some big ways. Steven Kelly joins the show to talk about how the Fed's 13(13) powers and the Standing Repo Facility might be used. 

On Twitter: @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Mentioned: Joseph Wang's blogpost "Debt Ceiling Procedures [RESTRICTED FR]", Steven's article "Cruel and Unusual Circumstances: The Fed's Use and Misuse of Penalty Rates"

Segment 1: lots to catch up on regarding the race to be the next Fed Chair

Segment 2: how and when the Fed raises interest rates

A few links mentioned in the episode: Carter on Newsweek, Joseph Wang's blogpost, Carolyn Sissoko paper

Get in touch on twitter: @KalebNygaard

Today's guests: @StevenKelly49

The central bank of Afghanistan, what we know so far. 

- Gov. Ajmal Ahmady's escape from the country

- Gov. Ahmady's update on the central bank's financial situation

- Gov. Ahmady's LinkedIn

- Dan Hardie article on Ahmady's history at the central bank

- Eshe Nelson article on financial situation

- Part of Federal Reserve Act that talks about foreign accounts

- John Paul Koning blog post on where the reserves are

I'm on twitter @KalebNygaard

Delighted to have Lev Menand, Associate Professor of Law at Columbia, on the show today to talk about his new book and the policy implications today. 

The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis

On twitter: @LevMenand, @KalebNygaard

When Senator Toomey suggested that Congress reconsider the structural design of the Federal Reserve, there was one person I wanted to hear from more than anyone else: Christina Skinner, professor at Wharton. The conversation did not disappoint! We cover the history of research at the Fed, guiding principles for designing central banks, how involved in politics central bankers should be, and more!

on twitter: @CParaSkinner and @KalebNygaard

Laboratories of Central Banking (paper w/Carola Binder)

The Legitimacy of the Federal Reserve (paper w/Carola Binder)

Christina on SSRN

Michael Derby, WSJ Fed beat reporter who broke the original financial disclosure for Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, comes back on the show to chat about past Dallas Fed presidents and Lorie Logan, the current SOMA manager at the New York Fed and next Dallas Fed president. 

Michael's article

on twitter: @michaelsderby, @stevenkelly49, @kalebnygaard

A conversation with WSJ reporter, Jon Hilsenrath, about his book on the love story of Janet and George and the way they broke through in the economics field and in policy. I enjoyed this conversation as much as I loved the book. Even if you think you know Yellen's story - this podcast will show a depth and insight that I promise will delightfully surprise you!

The Book

Jon's latest at the Journal

Jon on LinkedIn

Kaleb on twitter

Kaleb's guest post on Steven Kelly's substack about Yellen's legacy

Back behind the mic with my favorite political Fed Watcher. Derek Tang, CEO and co-founder of Monetary Policy Analytics at LH Meyer, joins the show to talk about the make up, dramas, and twists and turns he expects this year. 

Analysis on FOMC meeting minutes

on twitter: @macroderek

No one outside the Fed (and there have to be only like two or three within the Fed) have thought more about the Fed's emergency lending authorities than Steven Kelly. Today he's on the show for the ins and outs of these three angles:

- The DW & 13(3) covid-era data disclosures

- Does the Fed *have* to use SPVs? (thread)

- The case for prepping for an emergency commodities facility

Bloomberg oped

Original notes on the commodities facility

2008 legal memo

AIG warrants draft memo

Dallas Fed commodities markets article

David's excellent papers:

• Banks, Corporatism, and Collaboration in the Administrative State
• Against Being Against the Revolving Door

Washington Post article on Circle and the Boston Fed

On twitter: @ZaringDavid, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

David's book: The Globalized Governance of Finance

Two important topics on the table today with the one and only Steven Kelly. 

Debt Ceiling Headroom: The Fed Has an Extra $14 Billion

Does Bank Regulation Really Just Push Risk to the Shadows?

on twitter: @KalebNygaard and @StevenKelly

Joseph Wang, literally the "Fed Guy", joins the show to talk with Steven and me about the current situation with the Standing Repo Facility and its potential futures, as well as other current Fed events. 

On twitter: @FedGuy12, @KalebNygaard, @StevenKelly

Also make sure to check out Joseph's blog fedguy.com and buy his excellent book out earlier this year Central Banking 101 

If the Federal Reserve really was a national forest somewhere out west, today it would be in serious trouble because of climate change. On this episode we talk to the most important commentator on the topic - Gregg Gelzinis.

On twitter: @KalebNygaard, @FinGregg, @StevenKelly49 

Note, there were some technical issues with audio recording. We believe we’ve found the issue and it shouldn’t happen in future episodes.

How are the SEPs prepared? What goes into the Tealbook? What's the real purpose of the blackout period? These and so much more on the inner workings of the FOMC with former Board Monetary Affairs director and current Yale professor, Bill English. 

Bill's recent book (summary blog post, full book - which is downloadable for free!) with Angel Ubide and Kristin Forbes.

List of "Come with Me to the FOMC" speeches

on twitter: @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Stock trading scandal by the Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Boston. It was the biggest news in the Centralverse this week and we speak with the journalist that broke the story - Michael Derby!

On twitter: @KalebNygaard, @michaelsderby, @StevenKelly49

Original breaking story: Tuesday, Sep. 7

Follow-up story: Thursday, Sep. 9

The apt metaphor for this week in the centralverse is - drinking from the fire hose! My views on ten quick-hits from the week's Fed news.

1. Fed Chair race, PredictIt

2. Prospect article

3. Historical calendar of Fed Chair nominations

4. Boston Fed won't release scandal documents, Reuters

5. Fed ethics unit's warning letter, Jeanna Smialek's big scoop (letter)

6. The full list of trades / financial transactions by FOMC members, Jeanna's summary

7. The Fed's new ethics rules, thanks to Jeanna for the quote!!

8. FSOC Climate report with Powell’s stamp, Todd Phillips' tweet

9. Inflation readings and FOMC commentary

10. In coming weeks: (a) Fed CBDC report, (b) taper at FOMC meeting

Did you know articles of impeachment have been formally introduced in the House against Fed leaders at least twice in history? 

All the ins and outs of the dramatic race for the Federal Reserve Chair (and other open Fed seats) with the one and only Sam Bell!

On twitter: @KalebNygaard, @sam_a_bell, @StevenKelly49

Dorein Nunez is on a mission to increase diversity at the Federal Reserve Bank and branch boards of directors. A delightful chat with him today with stories of running physical commercial paper as a high school intern on Wall Street, to activist college days collecting signatures for the Community Reinvestment Act, to his work today. 

Dorien can be reached at omniresearch (at) aol (dot) com

I'm on twitter @KalebNygaard

My CRA paper with Peter Conti-Brown and Brian Feinstein

Huge news this week with the resignations of the Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Boston. But this is not the end of the story. So what comes next? Dennis Kelleher, President of Better Markets, joins the show to discuss. Check out Episode 6 for The Reserve's interview with Michael Derby from the WSJ who originally broke the story.

On twitter: @BetterMarkets, @KalebNygaard

Links: Public Letter, Better Markets' Scandal Landing Page

Matt Klein is the founder of The Overshoot, one of the most influential economic newsletters on the market. He joins the show today to talk give us an inside look into the creation of The Overshoot and discuss the FOMC meeting this week, how we got here, and where things are going. 

The Overshoot (sign up asap to lock in the lower rate!)

Trade Wars Are Class Wars (also check out this piece from The Overshoot, which is the first in a series that Matt is doing on reviewing the theories of the book since its publication)

on twitter: @M_C_Klein, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Steven and I sit down to chat about the week's news, including the FOMC meeting, updates and controversies surrounding the nominations, and the Fed's initial CBDC report. 

Nominations: Toomey's geography/background letter (Kaleb's reaction and original thread), hearings for Raskin/Cook/Jefferson February 3

FOMC: materials

CBDC: Fed's report

On twitter: @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

This is an exciting time to be Fed Watching and no one is doing it better than Neil Irwin, who joins the show today to talk about Jackson Hole, the ups and downs since,  what comes next for the central bank, and a behind the scenes look at the creation of the Axios Macro daily newsletter. 

Newsletter: Axios Macro w/@Courtenay_Brown

Book: The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire

Conference Panel: Cato Institute Monetary Conference

Twitter: @Neil_Irwin and @KalebNygaard

Fed Governor Randy Quarles' term as Fed VC for Supervision and Regulation ended this week, with no replacement nomination from Biden in sight. But this is just one of four major hats Quarles wears at the Fed. Fed reporter extraordinaire Victoria Guida joins the show to talk about what it all means and how this story is the perfect example of how strange the Fed's governance structure is.

On Twitter: @vtg2, @KalebNygaard 

"Fed’s bank cop loses top role as leadership shakeup looms"

The leading historian on US bank supervision, Sean Vanatta, joins the show to talk about Sarah Bloom Raskin's nomination to the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision. 

Tweets: @SeanVanatta, @KalebNygaard

“Focus on bank supervision, not just bank regulation” (Brookings)

“The Logic and Legitimacy of Bank Supervision: The Case of the Bank Holiday of 1933” (paper w/Peter Conti-Brown)

"Histories of Bank Supervision" (paper)

Landing page for all of Raskin's speeches as Fed Governor (2010-2014) (FRASER)

An old version of the introduction of *the* history of bank supervision in the US Sean is writing with Peter Conti-Brown. We'll have to wait a little bit longer for the book to come out, but for super fans like me, this intro is an awesome sample of what's to come.

Economic warfare during WWI with the incredible historian Nick Lambert! Stories of disrupted supply chains that are eerily similar to today, levels of destruction a true economic war can cost, how challenging conducting economic warfare can be, and much more. 

Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War (Harvard UP, 2012)

War Lords and the Gallipoli Disaster: How Globalized Trade Led Britain to Its Worst Defeat of the First World War (Oxford UP, 2021)

on twitter: @KalebNygaard

Welcome to The Reserve, a news and thoughts podcast from the Centralverse. Three segments on the show today: (1) intros to the new show, (2) Fed Chair Race standings, (3) a discussion with Steven Kelly on the pro/anti-Powell arguments within 5 policy areas (covid-19, the labor market, financial regulations, climate change, and central bank digital currency). 

Get in touch with me on twitter @KalebNygaard

Today's guest: @StevenKelly49

Most of this podcast's attention is focused on people and decisions made at the Eccles Building in Washington DC. But unemployment and inflation are felt most on the ground, in the lives of regular (and particularly low-income) Americans. No one is covering that story better than Rachel Siegel at the Washington Post. 

Rachel's inflation article, ‘Survival mode’: Inflation falls hardest on low-income Americans

Rachel's article, Two blocks from the Federal Reserve, a growing encampment of the homeless grips the economy’s most powerful person

Rachel's latest articles (go here for the latest drama on Senate committee nomination drama and Raskin specific drama)

On twitter: @racsieg, @stevenkelly49, @kalebnygaard

The one and only - the author of Politico's Morning Money newsletter, Kate Davidson. We talk about Michael Barr's nomination process and how he may fit into the still new position of Vice Chair for Supervision. We also talk about the other Fed nominees, monetary policy past and future, and how Morning Money is made. 

Sign up for Morning Money

@KateDavidson, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Quarles interview with Rob Blackwell we mention in the episode

Claudia Sahm joins the show to breakdown this week's FOMC meeting. It was a blast of a conversation that went deep into the inner workings of the Fed.

On Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm, @KalebNygaard

Claudia's: (1) congressional testimony, (2) the Sahm Rule, (3) Economics is a disgrace blog piece, and (4) dot plot substack.

An incredibly busy week in the Centralverse. Steven and I react to 8(!) big stories of the week: 

Boston CBDC Technical Report

Boston Fed Pres, Susan Collins

Reserve Trust & Raskin

Fed staff trading scandal and other ethics

Toomey’s Fed consolidation suggestion

25bp emergency increase rumors

Stress Test scenario

Afghanistan and the New York Fed

The beautiful thing about Jeanna Smialek's new book is that its core thesis has been tested and proven out in unbelievably prescient ways in just the 6 weeks since it came out.

Review⁠ it!!

It's a book for you Fed Watchers - and your parents! Seriously!

@JeannaSmialek & @StevenKelly49 & @KalebNygaard

We've had lots of active Fed journalists on the show to talk about their work and reporting. But no one can open up about the true inner-workings quite like former WSJ economics editor and all around Fed Wizard, David Wessel! 

At Brookings

In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke's War on the Great Panic

Only the Rich Can Play: How Washington Works in the New Gilded Age

on twitter: @davidmwessel, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

The official Fed historian, Jonathan Rose, joins Steven and I on the show today to discuss technology's role in the March 2023 bank runs as well as bank runs from history.

Article: “Understanding the Speed and Size of Bank Runs in Historical Comparison"

Twitter: @thejonrose

Book: Well Worth Saving: How the New Deal Safeguarded Home Ownership (publisher, Amazon)

Website: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/

The big moment the FOMC has been prepping us for arrived this week - the beginning of the taper. Roberto Perli, one of the most sought after Fed Watchers in the world, joined the podcast to talk break it all down with us. 

Twitter: @R_Perli, @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Fed Independence - what does it really mean? Does it matter if we don’t agree on what it means? All of this and more with Todd Phillips, director of financial regulation and corporate governance at the Center for American Progress.

The Myth of Independence, Binder and Spindel

Financial Crises and Legislation, Conti-Brown and Ohlrogge

Tweets: @tphillips, @KalebNygaard

The most lucid translator of Fed speak, Greg Ip joins the show to recap not only this week's FOMC meeting but also the wild year that was 2022. 

On twitter: @greg_ip @kalebnygaard

Greg's column on the FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell’s Grim Inflation Outlook Is at Odds With Markets

Randy Quarles’ mic drop speech included a very strange commentary on the future of the Fed’s emergency lending authority in 13(3). On today’s episode Steven Kelly and I react.

Quarles’ speech

Lev Menand’s paper on liquidity/credit facilities

Pari Sastri’s 13(3) paper

2008 Board minutes on penalty rates

On twitter: @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

There's one person who has thought more about the philosophical and economic principles undergirding the Federal Reserve, central banks, and independent agencies - Paul Tucker. In his new book, Global Discord Values and Power in a Fractured World Order, Paul takes a step back to consider international organizations, and how their institutional design and legitimacy hold in a changing global power dynamic. 

Carey Mott, from the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins me as cohost in this interview with Paul. 

Global Discord (new book)

Unelected Power (first book)

Events:

• Nov 22, 2022, AEI (recording available)
• Nov 28, 2022, UChicago
• Jan 17, 2023, LSE

Where will the Fed be in 2030? Where should it be? How will the next 18 months define the Fed’s direction for decades to come? Matt Yglesias joins the show today to think it all through with me.

Matt’s Newsletter: Slowboring

Matt’s most recent book: One Billion Americans

Tweets: @mattyglesias, @KalebNygaard

What on earth happened this week?! Steven and I chat about the leak (was it? wasn't it?) and the FOMC meeting. 

on twitter: @StevenKelly49, @KalebNygaard

Howard's follow-up to Powell goes unanswered (at 9:17)

Federal Reserve police officers were the first to find the Watergate burglars...and that's only the beginning of this incredible story!! Seriously, listen to the whole thing because there are so many wild gems.

Nixon Presidential Library oral history with John E. Sheehan

Fed's IG report on accusations re Watergate and loans to Iraq

on twitter @KalebNygaard (Tankus tweet that inspired the episode)

Was this *the* most important FOMC meeting? How high were the stakes going in to it? Alex Williams, Research Analyst at Employ America, joins the show discuss these questions and react to all the excitement of the FOMC week.

"A Credible, Broad and Inclusive Approach to Maximum Employment" (blog post)

"Beyond the Phillips curve" (full piece)

Employ America

Tweets: @vebaccount, @KalebNygaard

This podcast was born as a countdown to today! The Fed Chair nom is in and Powell gets another term. Here are my five hot takes on the Powell/Brainard announcement.

1. Was it a surprise?

2. Where were the progressives?

3. How will Powell/Brainard nomination processes go?

4. What about the remaining vacancies?

5. What does this mean for the future of the Fed?

On twitter @KalebNygaard

Steven Kelly sits in the host seat for this interview with Kaleb Nygaard on a wide-ranging conversation on many issues in Fed governance that have been in recent Fed news. 

On twitter: @StevenKelly49 @KalebNygaard

History of Fed age limits thread

Paper on Reserve Bank board of director diversity and community lending

Current terms of all members of the FOMC

Ann Saphir's article on Reserve Bank board of director diversity

Fed communication has evolved a lot in the last few decades, and few people have been in better places to view it than Tony Fratto, Founding Partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and former WH Deputy Press Secretary and Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury.

The Greenspan days, the global financial crisis, the Trump tweets, the pandemic, the trading scandal, and inflation - we cover a lot of ground!

Tony's podcast The Macrocast

on twitter: @TonyFratto, @KalebNygaard

Breaking down the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Fed with New York Times Fed beat journalist, Jeanna Smialek. 

Jeanna's latest articles

The West’s Plan to Isolate Putin: Undermine the Ruble (article)

Russia Tried to Isolate Itself, but Financial Ties Called Its Bluff (article)

The Fed chair pledges to bring inflation under control and signals wariness on wages (article)

Article by Ana Swanson: Ukrainian Invasion Adds to Chaos for Global Supply Chains

on twitter: @jeannasmialek, @KalebNygaard