The Jacob Shapiro Podcast (Jacob Shapiro)

Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity.

Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.

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Timestamps:

(00:00)

(01:27) - Cyberwarfare

(20:10) - 5G + China + Huawei

(28:00) - 34:44 - Trust Networks

(34:20) - Has there ever been a full-on cyber war?

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron’s election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:18) – Overview of France right now

(09:00) – Macron’s likability

(17:31) – What was Macron thinking?

(22:50) - Silver linings

(27:40) – French Civil War?

(32:14) – Effects on EU

(49:40) – What to watch

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:39) – Defining terms

(11:41) – Weaponizing finance

(20:50) – Crypto/Milei

(28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters

(40:57) – Debt

(45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?

(51:30) – Silver linings playbook

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688

Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives?

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(4:00) - What is nuclear fusion?

(11:30) - Why is nuclear fusion Important for the future of humans?

(24:15) - What are the different ways to achieve fusion?

(30:00) - What are the safeguards in place to stop runaway fusion?

(36:00) - Why was this recent breakthrough so important?

(43:50) - What is the timeline for nuclear fusion?

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why time is not on the side of the latter – before closing with some thoughts on a geopolitical shift in the Philippines and the pitfalls of strategic ambiguity in Taiwan. 

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:48)– Market update

(6:40) - Energy Price Rebounds

(8:15) – China and Coal

(25:08) – 1 Year of Russia-Ukraine War

(42:30) – Taiwan and Philippines

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

China Coal Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-20/china-s-coal-mining-boom-is-running-on-fumes

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines?

If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them?

Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents.

They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offer thoughts on Pakistan and India’s divergent policy directions, and speculate on the future of EVs!

Special guest appearance by HRH Anne the Love Shapiro.

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:40) - China Housing Updates

(13:00) - China Developing Food Security

(19:10) – Pakistan is Quadrupling Coal

(23:04) – Indian Growth and the Costs

(30:02)– Lithium and nickel prices roll over

(32:36) - EV's

(38:05) - EU + Poland drama

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more.

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Introduction

(1:14) - U.S. coalition against China

(13:14) – Ukraine War

(34:14) – Multipolarity

(42:30) – India

(52:11) – Kyrie Irving

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Marko's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:55) - US Macro

(08:20) - US consumers are doing well??

(12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad??

(15:15) - Migration surge at US border

(17:25) - Immigration trends

(24:00) - Europe Updates

(32:53) – Geopolitics and investing

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization

(07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization

(15:15) - Is IP ever safe?

(24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China

(30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations

(39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production?

(47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Neil Townsend hops back onto the pod to discuss the underlying agricultural currents shifting beneath the surface of our geopolitical landscape.

Food and fertilizer prices are up, Brazil and China are facing epic droughts, and the future of food production globally is uncertain.

Is this news? No. Are there technological and economic innovations that are drastically changing our ability to cope with these issues? Tune in to find out!

Neil Townsend is the Chief Market Analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions and GrainFox

Farmlink Solutions Event on Oct 13: https://www.farmlinksolutions.ca/frombintobank/

Timestamps

1:40-8:25 – Global food prices

8:25-23:18 – Fertilizer & Russia/Ukraine War

23:18-32.55 – Brazil/USD

32:55-44:04 – China

44:04-1:17:00 – Future of agriculture

1:17:00-end – Key takeaways

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Brian O'Toole joins Jacob on the new channel, exploring the concept of sanctions as a geopolitical weapon.

If you haven't please subscribe to keep up with more Perch Pod formatted content, along with deep dives into history, market explorations, and much, much more!

Cheers!

Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels!

Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is back! The markets went nowhere (and everywhere, depending on how you look at it)!

Hop back in to hear Jacob and Rob run through:

Market Overview - 1:40-9:15

We like Europe - 9:15-19:20

China/Japan, Yuan/Yen - 19:20-32:20

Chile, Copper, U.S., Energy Transition - 32:20-47:55

Pakistan + India - 47:55-end

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft

(11:42) - Iran and the West Bank

(19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran?

(28:17) - What is next for Iran?

(34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah?

(40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps

(45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this?

(51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis

(55:51) - The Muslim world's take

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics.

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or not Ukraine will be receiving some fighter jets to move into offensive mode. Tune in to learn more!

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:40) – The next 12 months of the war

(23:50) – Assessing Europe’s true resolve

(36:10) – Who bombed Nordstream?

(44:00) – Is Ukraine getting fighter jets?

(52:50) – How long will the US and EU pitch into Ukraine?

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he.

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?

(17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap

(33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast

(33:52) - Rob's Predictions

(37:18) - Jacob's Predictions

(43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt

(47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)

(51:03) – The illusion of moral decline

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how to protect time in a world that seems determined to steal it from us.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(03:04) - Narath

(15:36) – Geography of wellness

(28:18) – Informatics and human flourishing

(48:28) – Making goals

(01:00:04) – Rob and Jacob share experiences

(01:18:43) – How to stay positive

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to MakeTimeFlow: https://www.maketimeflow.com/about/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamran’s prediction from December that the end of the Iranian regime is nigh.

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:49) – The Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement.

(30:20) – Turkey’s view + a brief aside on the evolution of Saudi Arabia

(47:28) – The role of India

52:00 – The future of Iran

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:10) - Taiwan

(19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans

(23:07) – Taiwan

(25:10) – Immigration/Demographics

(45:30) – India

(47:30) – Historians rule

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Referenced in the Show:

• Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-Deaton
• Immigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
• Assuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Chase Taylor joins Jacob for yet another amazing conversation. They dive into Inflation, Corn, Energy, and, of course, Turkey. Enjoy the show!

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: kristin@cognitive.investments

Website: https://cognitive.investments

Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) – Eurasianism

(17:00) – What does Putin think/believe

(28:06) – Russia’s views of the East/China

(32:32) - Russian exceptionalism

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to Gary’s piece: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Rebranding

(02:30) - The Jacob Shapiro Confusion

(05:00) - Interview with Jacob N. Shapiro

(07:15) - Concerns About Disinformation

(09:45) - The Role of Technology in Disinformation

(12:20) - Historical Revisionism and AI

(15:35) - TikTok and Social Media Influence

(20:10) - Mental Health and Social Media

(25:00) - The Future of Trusted News Sources

(30:00) - The Impact of Gen AI on Journalism

(35:00) - Shift to National News and Its Effects

(40:10) - Economic Models for News Industry

(45:00) - Challenges in Monetizing Quality Content

(50:30) - Political Polarization and Media

(55:45) - Election Concerns in the U.S.

(01:00:00) - Foreign Interference and Election Security

(01:05:50) - Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts

(01:10:30) - China's Influence and Global Competition

(01:15:00) - El Salvador's Bukele and Regional Politics

(01:20:00) - Commencement Address Principles

(01:25:00) - Closing Remarks and Disclaimers

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Referenced in the Show:

Where Americans get their News: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/

Independent Affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx

--

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Argentina election results

(10:04) – What is Peronism?

(17:34) – The role of social media

(26:11)) – Milei’s chances in the next round

(42:35) – The role of the military

(51:15) – What happens next?

(56:54) – Venezuela

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Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob hop on the first of many weekly calls to break down the events they've seen around the world this week.

They cover:

1. The return of the travel economy
2. American policy updates
3. The news cycle
4. Mexico
5. Iran
6. France
7. Ukraine
8. Germany and Japan's new partnership
9. and much, much more!

Thanks for tuning in!

Check out our site and services here.

Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo

(06:08) - Ukraine/Russia

(19:07) – The South Caucasus

(31:36) – Central Asia

(41:05) - end – China

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Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Kamran Bokhari of the New Lines Institute dives deep into the turbulence brewing in Eurasia, with the war in Ukraine destabilizing some already tenuous relationships with Russia, and the US's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and leave the Taliban in charge - The US, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran are all pushing for a foothold in the region, with Kazakhstan at the center of this tug-of-war.

Kamran Bokhari is Director of Analytical Development at the New Lines Institute.

You can find his article on Kazakhstan here.

Timestamps:

0:00-18:00 – Kazakhstan

18:00-36:24 – Pakistan

36:24-48:30 – Iran

48:30-end: Russia/Turkey

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: kristin@cognitive.investments

Website: https://cognitive.investments

Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal).

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:01) – CI Club

(05:30) –  US and Global Markets

(26:33) - France and Europe

(35:30) – Middle East

(49:13) – South Korea

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.

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Timestamps:

Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House.

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Timestamps:

• 00:00 - Introduction
• 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications
• 04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions
• 10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics
• 15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections
• 26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory
• 28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation
• 30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets
• 33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities
• 36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America
• 37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies
• 41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies
• 46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility
• 50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook
• 56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture!

Up for discussion in this episode:

• Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping lane
• Logistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?
• There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this one
• Taiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?
• Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?
• China/Argentina trade
• On to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild ride
• It doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopolitics
• The outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping
• geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Snow in the gulf

(5:30) – Weak La Nina

(11:20) – US Forecast 2025

(18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, South America

(26:00) – Europe

(31:05) – India

(33:50) – Drought

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts.

Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-on-china-the-west-and-the-fog-of-war-with-jacob-shapiro/

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie)

(11:54) – What if…tariff edition

(20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History Lesson

(27:00) – Investment takeaways

(42:00) - Rejoinders from the Trump administration

(44:40) – France

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka

(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse

(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?

(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine

(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and

(40:43) – Ukraine's F16's

(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Abdolrasool Divsallar (Farzam, if you will) joins us again, after well over a year, to discuss the growing unrest in Iran. Farzam is a visiting profesor at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Divsallar

Timestamps

0:00-9:30 – Why these Iranian protests are different

9:30-16:00 – What’s up with the Supreme Leader?

16:00-20:46 – Regional response

31:28-48:30 – the Iran Nuclear Deal/relations with Russia

48:30-end – Turkey

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

 Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Election results analysis

(14:00) - Future of Turkish economy

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers.

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Referenced in the Show:

Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY

Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob brings on special guest Dr. Jacek Bartosiak to discuss the Polish perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War, the implications of Kaliningrad being sealed off from Russia, and much more.

Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future. He is the author of best-selling books including “Pacyfik i Eurazja. O Wojnie” (Pacific and Eurasia. On War” (2016), which focuses on the ongoing great power competition in Eurasia and the possible war in the Western Pacific. He is also the author of ”Rzeczpospolita między Lądem a Morzem. O wojnie i pokoju.” (Poland and Intermarium between the Land and the Sea Powers – (2018), which deals with the geostrategic reality Poland and Europe face in the era of great power competition and is an in-depth study of the Central Eastern European theatre of war and modern warfare.

Timestamps:

3:00-11:30: Kaliningrad

11:30-21:15: A Polish view of the world

21:15-28:30: The Suwałki Corridor

28:30-39:30: What happens next?

39:30-45:00: Ukraine and the new balance of power in Europe

45:00-End Turkey

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence

(02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility

(08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets

(19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis

(28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience

(29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics

(30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies

(33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape

(36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing

(37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology

(42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants

(47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment

(50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights

(54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:24) –German Industrialization

(06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics

(22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0

(39:28) - China’s tech resilience

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state.

Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey

Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara

(06:35) - Turkey's Economy

(14:00) - Turkish Coalitions

(17:10) - Turkey and Russia

(22:27) – Turkey and NATO

(27:30) - Turkey and China

(30:35) - Erdogan's Policy

(32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East

(38:00) - Predictions

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports

(12:21) - Natural gas teaser

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions.

Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, the United States are all deeply interested in and fighting over Uzbekistan’s and Central Asia’s future. 

Hopefully, by the end of this podcast, you’ll get a sense of Uzbekistan’s opportunities, its internal and external risks, and why the future of Eurasia depends on how those opportunities and risks evolve in the coming years.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:53) - The Basics of Uzbekistan

(06:07) - What is Eurasia?

(12:08) - Russian and Chinese Interests

(23:45) - Everyone Else's Interests

(35:50) - Opportunities and Risks

(44:33) - The Path Forward

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions.

--

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:50) - Banking crisis/Chase’s macro view

(15:43) - Who said something about Oil? You cookin’?

(34:25) - Commodity supercycle

(43:29) – Natural Gas

(51:05) - Basketball

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30)– Eau Claire, WI

(04:30) – Tires

(24:15) – China and Mexico

(30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis

(43:37)– Human capital

(51:00) – Quick global roundup

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

What does the immediate future of China look like?

Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military?

John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries.

John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MIT

Timestamps:

1:40-10:50 – China 2023

10:50 - 27:10 – Is China a threat to the U.S.?

27:10 – 35:02 – China Chips/AI

35:02-49:22 – Chinese technology transfer policy

49:22 – end – South Korea? Taiwan? Japan?

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Description (replace me)

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America
• 08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges
• 19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking
• 22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained
• 31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk
• 44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift
• 45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook
• 56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

--

Referenced in the Show:

https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/

https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - The Evening Special

(03:33) - Unexpected Developments

(18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations

(28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs

(36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position

(49:39) - The Shifting Dynamics of Global Power

(01:00:40) - Geopolitical Perspectives on the Ukraine Conflict

(01:07:08) - The Future of Ukraine and Russia's Strategy

(01:18:41) - The Future of Luka Doncic: Challenges and Opportunities

(01:28:06) - Introducing Geopolitical Cousins: A New Podcast

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Jacob takes to the mic for an emergency reaction to the big event everyone is paying attention to from the weekend (Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident) and perhaps the one that is being missed (a failed coup attempt in the DRC).

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(12:36) - Attempted Coup in DRC

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States.

--

Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position
• 07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy
• 38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy
• 48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:05-10:00) – Fed

(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act

(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel

(42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more.

John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it.

TimeStamps:

2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations

19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations

25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific

39:32-46:30 – Indonesia

46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica 

57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan

1:05:30 – International Intrigue

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections

(03:36) – Panama Canal

(04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria

(08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh

(09:39) – Wheat

(12:29) – China

(16:00) – Germany

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future.

Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry.

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective

(15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions

(33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my

(40:20) – Black Swans

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.

Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Colorado River

(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?

(14:20) - How do we fix this?

(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states

(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?

(23:37) - Arizona vs. California

(25:09) - Legal issues with water

(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights

(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations

(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?

(42:15) - Where do we go from here?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure

(08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update

(10:20) – Hamas’s intentions

(17:08) - Is Iran behind this?

(22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals?

(29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation?

(36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals?

(38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors?

--

Referenced in the Show:

Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfux

Substack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com

Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

The lads talk macro, China, Latin America, and eventually dive into the fascinating news behind Vietnam's development of a new African Swine Fever vaccine.

Timestamps:

1:15-7:40 – US Macro

7:40-13:55 – China

13:55 –35:25 – Colombia/LatAm/Populism

35:25-end – African Swine Fever

Thanks for tuning in!

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:50) - Kamala

(05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China

(17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela

(33:00) – Egypt

(43:51) – Vietnam

(47:50) – Japan

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are back at it for their weekly chat. They talk about the latest rumor that the Chinese government will prop up growth rates, explore whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions are realistic, and close with some thoughts on protectionism in steel. NOTE: PLEASE FILL OUT OUR SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:00) - Trends in Energy, Jokes

(07:32) - The Chinese Economy

(16:48) - US Investors and Economy

(23:25) – France, Macron, + more

(41:31) – Steel

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Referenced in the Show:

SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob sit down together (in person!) to talk about the crossover between geopolitics and investing, why it makes sense to combine the two, and what they've learned in their time using them together.

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: kristin@cognitive.investments

Website: https://cognitive.investments

Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:30) - U.S-China relations

(32:04) - Investing

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Referenced in the Show:

• Fight in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO9fnjshHvg
• Chinese readout: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202311/t20231116_11181442.html
• US readout: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/
• Tweet: https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1722409650380005859?s=20

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

--

Timestamps:

(00:07) - Intro

(00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet

(17:18) - Bitcoin

(25:00) - Debt

(32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China

(41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks

(53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:20) - Election Results

(07:00) - Thai history

(20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?

(25:40) – Geopolitical implications

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast. 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) - Macro Overview

(19:20) – EU problems 

(25:20) - No optimism in EU

(36:06) – Japan automakers leave China

(40:15) - 4 interesting events

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers.

Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:45) - Semiconductors

(13:05) - How the government assesses risk

(27:19) – EVs

(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar

(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?

(09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)

(12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest

(18:23) - Internal strife

(25:14) – What happens next in Russia?

(31:56) - Market Movements

(40:06) – Ukraine Implications

(52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes

(59:36) - China

(1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty

(12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty

(17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now?

(25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences

(36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction?

(41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints?

(56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment

(01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment?

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history

(19:00) – Tariffs

(34:00) – Devaluing the dollar

(50:50) – China

(59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the profile of countries capable of thriving in a volatile and uncertain macro environment.

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Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

2:30 – U.S. Macro

7:50 – China Macro

22:06 – Inflation in Europe

27:30 – Brazil and Indonesia

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprises

Timestamps:

0:00-4:43 – Intro

4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Japan’s surprise

17:26-end – Looking back at 2022 and a head 2023

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:05) - Catching Up

(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data

(14:40) - Getting Meta

(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China

(28:00) - AI Infrastructure

(36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation

(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?

(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations

(53:30) - Protests in France

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Javier Milei

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management.

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Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context
• 09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains
• 39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights
• 53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings
• 54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration

(06:30) - Needs v. realities

(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?

(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty

(33:55) – Pitfalls of international law

(41:30) – How to build trust in institutions

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Referenced in the Show:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi’s shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Khamenei’s successor

(08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death

(14:13) – What happens next?

(25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader

(36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war

( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jordan

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Migration

(06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside

(10:15) - Stagnation in Japan

(15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations

(21:50) - South China Sea

(28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military

(32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula

(38:40) - North Korea

(42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia

(46:30) - Canada

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

A dose of markets and geopolitics to hopefully get your mind off of the horrific events occurring in the USA this week. Stay safe out there.

1:37-10:50 Market Update

10:50-28:20 Europe

28:20-End Grains + psychology of investing

Thanks for tuning in!

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:32) - How to think about information

(13:15) - The challenges of information overload

(19:11) - Participating in the media environment

(24:50) - Healthy skepticism

(26:30) - Journalism

(33:00) - Information gathering tactics

(39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information

(48:00) - The refraction of old models

(52:40) - The value of being a contrarian

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

 Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:40) – Yuroslav's Background

(7:20) – How did Russia get here?

(13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?

(22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny

(27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?

(29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want?

(36:18) - German and European perspective on the war

(39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China

(41:11) – The future

--

Referenced in the Show:

Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Bitcoin

(12:55) – Philosophical considerations

(27:05) – Rails / assets

(40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities

(50:30) – Aliens

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:25) - Why Indonesia

(06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism

(14:00) – Prabowo

(29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy

(41:25 – Indonesia-Oz relations

(44:33) – Jakarta

(54:02) – What to eat

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

This is a crossposted episode from the Rane Podcast Series with Stratfor!

Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, and Jacob discuss the practice of applied geopolitics in the context of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin's efforts to leverage energy supplies against Europe, and China's 20th Party Congress (among other asides).

The original episode is here.

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:00) - Lessons from ROK

(17:22) – Entrepreneurship

(35:18) – Steel

(49:23) – University upheaval

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:17) - Inflation

(11:34) - Political Side of Inflation

(23:57) - Is China in deflation?

(45:25) - Venezuela x Guyana

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.

--

Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Introductory Remarks
• 00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel
• 01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals
• 02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation
• 03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities
• 34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?
• 01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios
• 01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• 01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions
• 01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:26) - U.S.-China cyber relations

(09:26) - Is the US actively targeting China via cyber attacks?

(12:30) – Politics of aliens

(18:26) - Plausible Deniability?

(30:10) - Why is there US bipartisan support for alien investigations?

(36:40) – Do aliens exist?

(49:19) – What does it mean if they do?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive

(05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine

(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis

(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?

(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions

(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?

(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?

(25:11) - Was the coup planned??

(26:11) - Russian military morale

(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?

(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?

(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa

(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests

(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?

--

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt.

See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) - Kenosha, WI

(16:50) – Middle East update

(40:02) – EU future

(50:40) – Egypt, the UAE, etc

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:22) - Paulo’s view

(13:05) – US elections

(19:32) – Oil

(33:08)– China

(41:20) – Grains

(51:10) – Brazil

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic

(10:50) - Health consciousness

(28:45) - Individualized healthcare

(37:25)-end - The future of biotech

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis. 

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:15) - Strategic Wealth

(14:00) - Brazil

(22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis

(27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia

(32:07) - Speculation and Strategy

(37:14) - Economics is Always Wrong

(39:16) - The Importance of Qualitative Analysis

(45:10) - Poland

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here: 

https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice

Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch

(05:45) - What Is It?

(06:44) - Geopolitics and Disruptive Innovation

(11:20) - Deep Dive Explanations

(14:35) - Early Stage Innovation

(18:10) - Hydrogen rides on Iridium (Examples)

(20:00) - Cutting through the BS

(25:00) - Looking Short at Germany and the USA

(31:15) - Pakistan Unrest

(33:36) - East Africa/Sudan

(37:00) - The importance of institutions

(45:50) - Debt ceiling

(54:26) - Japanese Markets

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

1. What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation?
2. Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil?
3. Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors?
4. What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like?
5. How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market?

Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)

Cognitive Investments

Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:47) - CI Club Concept

(05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates

(07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia

(13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges

(17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies

(20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study

(29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce

(29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts

(31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation

(34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings

(40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure

(44:29) - Automation and Future of Work

(46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality

(48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections

(55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA

28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil

30:00 – China

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:05) - North Korea 

(13:10) – South Korea

(18:30) – Nuclear proliferation/

(23:15) – Internal DPRK dynamics

(29:29) - U.S. election scenarios

(33:38) – DPRK v ROK war

(35:47) – Rodger’s macro view

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Referenced in the Show:

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells

(14:20) – S&P 500 reversal?

(23:00) – Technical analysis

(29:50) – Japanese candlesticks

(47:30) – Inflation

(58:40) – Ukraine

(1:06:30) – China

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor