Street Signals (State Street Global Markets)

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it too much of a good thing? Who better to ask than bond market guru, the creator of the MOVE index of implied interest rate volatility and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Harley Bassman. This week's conversation explores the Fed's easing cycle, the shift in policymakers' focus from inflation to the labor market and the overlooked importance of demographics. Harley also talks through the creation of the MOVE index, the implications that his view on rate volatility has for mortgage backed securities and why investors should avoid credit and duration risks. Check out Harley on Twitter, @ConvexityMaven, and at convexitymaven.com.

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The rest of the summer will likely be spent wondering just how much further major central banks need to go in tightening policy. The Federal Reserve in particular sound like they are nearing the end of a rapid hiking cycle - or at least sounding like they want to be done. But US economic activity still looks robust. Lee Ferridge joins Tim this week to discuss the sources of strength in the US economy, what we can expect in the coming months and what it means for US asset markets and the long-term drivers of the US dollar.

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Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.

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It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, volatility, the direction of the dollar and where both funding and risky currencies sit - they all get special attention on this whirlwind tour of the risk complex.

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This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the audience in a rapid-fire, Shark Tank-style presentation, with ideas as wide-ranging as how to think about US Financials, the US yield curve and the state of Emerging Market FX carry trades.

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Markets often struggle to discount geopolitical risk and the response to the extreme violence in the Middle East last week and subsequent escalation of rhetoric seems to be no exception. Relatively benign movements in energy and capital markets thus far perhaps betray a complacency that our guest this week, Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors, believes could be tested. Fragmentation globally and within the US political system make this a particularly fraught period as we look to assess the short- and long-term ramifications of yet another geopolitical flashpoint.

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Markets have been relatively quiet but there are concerns bubbling under the surface. While the podcast is going to take some time off to recharge before a busy Autumn, there's enough to think about and many questions to still answer before the year is out. Tim walks through the main takeaways from our recent research with an eye on how to navigate what could be a choppy few months.

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Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, joins us this week, to dive into the improving trend in US productivity growth. Drawing on a recent paper highlighting parallels to the 1990s productivity boom, Mui emphasizes that whether we witness another boom in productivity hinges not on fate, but on policy decisions. He underscores the importance of tight labor markets, robust investment, and a stable supply of essentials to keep inflation at bay in nurturing productivity. 

Preston's paper, The Dream of the 90s is Alive in 2024, is used as source material for the discussion and is well worth your time.

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A new partnership with GeoQuant expands our indicator set to include measures of geopolitical and country risks. We discuss these metrics with GeoQuant co-founder and CEO Mark Rosenberg and Michael Guidi from State Street Associates. Mark also provides us with a deep dive on developments in the US-China relationship, the Ukraine war and the upcoming US presidential election cycle.

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Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of demand resilience. Commentary from consumer-oriented firms about waning pricing power and tighter margins looks troubling. Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, returns with her take on a bifurcated earnings environment, where tech still trumps all but the outlook for consumer stocks, banks and sector rotation strategies is murkier. Peter Vincent, head of Trading in EMEA, is also back, with his macro spin on consumer and labor market trends, and where he sees rate markets and currencies in the coming months.

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After a burst of volatility, markets are settling. Is the turmoil over or was it the opening episode in a destabilizing series of events? We don’t know but there are metrics we can monitor to get a better sense of how asset and currency markets will behave in the coming weeks. Street Signals host Tim Graf walks through four different themes from State Street Global Markets' suite of proprietary indicators of investor behaviour, inflation and risk. Each can be observed daily, with implications for returns in equity, rate and FX markets in the balance.

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The calm in currency markets since the late summer has been one of the stranger puzzles of the last year. Its not as though FX markets have nothing to think about - questions over both risky and riskless asset valuation have dominated thinking for the last three months. And yet volatility in most markets, but particularly in FX, is dropping like a stone and reaching multi-year lows. This week, Tim brings back Michael Metcalfe, our Global Head of Macro Strategy, and Peter Vincent, head of Trading in EMEA, to discuss why it has been so calm and what might disrupt things in the New Year.

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It is hard to imagine being a market strategist and not being a voracious reader. The Strategy team at State Street Global Markets certainly love a book. And every Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read (or listened to!) over the previous year - often they have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 10th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!

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In a long career as an economist and trader, Mark Dow has seen almost everything. With one eye always on the narratives and behavioral elements that drive price, his commentary is an ideal complement to our own research. In a far-reaching conversation, we discuss his process, how it has evolved over the years, his always-insightful analysis of monetary policy frameworks past and present and the best opportunities Mark sees in markets in the weeks and months ahead. Mark is always Tweeting his thoughts @behavioralmacro and @mark_dow, be sure to check him out there.

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It's been another rough year for bond markets, but the makings of a recovery are starting to appear. Inflation is cooling, monetary policymakers do not sound too worried about the effects of recent oil price rises and the impact of horrific and consequential geopolitical events is a reminder of the safe haven qualities many bonds have. Fred Goodwin is back to discuss the recent dynamics in fixed income markets, whether the diversification properties of bonds will ever be as good as they once were and whether this is, in fact, a good time to buy bonds.

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China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.

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Despite protests from central banks that the fight against inflation is not yet won, expectations for easing next year are building and being pulled forward. Timing these turns in markets is tough but the moves in rates are coming just as measures of central bank coverage tone, produced by State Street in a partnership with MKT MediaStats, are turning similarly dovish. MediaStats co-founder Gideon Ozik sits down with us to discuss the construction and message from these metrics, as well as how advances in AI are helping to improve the predictive power of large data sets and what the AI revolution means more generally for market analysis.

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The 2024 US election cycle has begun in earnest, with next week's Super Tuesday primaries likely to solidify Joe Biden and Donald Trump as their respective parties' nominees for President. Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors rejoins the podcast, cutting through the hype cycle to offer a more informed read of polling, the likely balance of power and possibility in the outcomes across executive and legislative elections and the exogenous events that could influence the process along the way. The traditional cyclical implications of election season, as well as the stark differences between presidential and party platforms, carry meaningful implications for equities, fixed income and the dollar.

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Street Signals returns from a brief winter hibernation, with the first two weeks of the New Year offering plenty of food for thought. Dan Gerard is back with us to discuss how the consensus views formed at the end of 2023 are already being challenged and we focus on what stands out as most relevant from our own research and indicators to help contribute to this discussion. So far, the trends of late last year are still intact, but new wrinkles to challenge their continuation are emerging.

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April brought a reality check to markets after a stellar Q1, sparking demand for safety across assets and currencies. The higher for longer rate environment, together with signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation, gives rise to thoughts of future weakness in risk assets. Naturally, investors begin to question where best to take shelter. Are traditional safe havens as effective as they have been in past cycles? How do US Treasuries, the dollar and yen, long the stalwarts of safety, stack up? This week, Fred Goodwin returns to the podcast to discuss the challenges of selecting a suitable safe haven, the intricacies of safe haven currencies and which assets are most appealing to him right now.

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The Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer message is still being digested by markets and pushing the dollar higher as a consequence. The longer these moves persist, the more problems it potentially creates, especially for riskier, emerging market currencies previously buffeted by their own high underlying rates, as well as for currencies in economies where the central bank can no longer keep pace with the Fed. It takes a steady, experienced hand to make sense of it and, thankfully, we have Bill Walsh, our head of Trading for the Americas, with us to talk through all things FX.

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The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive territory. Why is that? On this week's podcast, we are thrilled to speak to Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisers, founder of Sahm Consulting and developer of the renowned 'Sahm Rule', a widely observed and often misunderstood recession indicator. The conversation covers the forces driving the resilient consumer, how labor shortages and wage growth issues are being resolved, the most persistent drivers of US inflation and what it all means for future Federal Reserve policy.

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In thinking about markets, we can often get the long-term vision right without considering the bumps along the way and how one navigates them. And right now, there are a lot of potential bumps to consider. This week, we are very excited to welcome Peter Vincent, head of trading for EMEA for State Street Global Markets, to talk about his background and experience, how he is thinking about markets at the moment and what periods from a long career of trading macro markets are most like the current environment.

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The technology sector has no shortage of positives backing it and the applications of artificial intelligence across tech and other sectors present us with mind-boggling possibilities. But questions of valuation and concentration risk arise given how positive the consensus has become. It takes two strategists to help us sort it out, with Anthi Tsouvali from State Street Global Markets and Rebecca Chesworth from State Street Global Advisors joining us this week, to discuss the strengths and potential vulnerabilities within the tech sector, and the seemingly limitless opportunities afforded to all of us by artificial intelligence.

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This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research partner, Dan Drezner, professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, at our recent Research Retreats in Boston and London. This week's podcast draws on material from his prepared remarks and the Q&A at the London event.

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Last October, we did an episode asking whether it was a good time to buy bonds answering, 'Yes, it probably was', with the release date marking the 16 year high in US Treasury yields. Talk about good timing. But after a 10% gain into year end, the last two months have been more challenging for global fixed income. Resilient data in the US and elsewhere have deferred expectations for easing in the large developed economies. Equities have loved the good news but the best you can say for bonds is that returns year to date are flat. Marvin Loh is back on the podcast this week to take another look, focusing on how much longer monetary policy needs to be restrictive, whether any of the cracks seen so far in commercial real estate and at regional banks should worry us, what to expect from the Federal Reserve meeting next week and whether this is, indeed, still a good time to buy bonds.

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Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees interest rate and currency markets potentially underpriced for the uncertainties ahead.

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A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashion to the market upsets that recurred throughout 2022. The evidence in the official data is mixed, and this week, we have a genuine expert to help us answer the question of whether inflation, having cooled somewhat, is in danger of rising once more. Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, one of our research partners, is back with us. We discuss whether and where inflation risks are rising and what implications that carries for monetary policymakers who otherwise plan to begin lowering rates around the middle of this year.

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After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why the Conservatives find themselves in crisis, what opportunities are on the table for a potential new Labour government and how gilts and the pound might fare in the coming months.

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Volatility has been subdued to start the year, but geopolitical risks are on the rise. We have yet to see the turmoil and unrest in the news have any strong effects on markets, yet it has the feel of calm before a potential storm. Elections in Taiwan, recurrence of violence in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine all carry implications for great power competition as well as economies and asset markets. The US election season, kicking off earlier this week in Iowa, should do the same. Mark Rosenberg, co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, is back with us to make sense of it all.

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It has been a year of two halves for equity markets. The belief that central bank easing would come to the rescue bolstered returns in the first half, but a higher-for-longer message from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, thanks in large part to a resilient US economy, is starting to take its toll. Marija Veitmane, our global head of Equity Strategy, makes a long overdue appearance discussing which corners of the stock market look most vulnerable and where to look for safety and growth opportunities.

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After 10 years of mostly steady outperformance, investors are rotating away from tech stocks and the sector is now only keeping pace with the broader index. Anthi Tsouvali joins Tim to discuss whether we have seen peak sentiment around IT and growth stocks and what catalysts would be necessary for resumed strength in this sector. We also briefly walk through Q2 earnings thus far, with an eye on the outlook for the remainder of 2023.

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Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from our Equity Strategy team in the Americas whether this is merely a healthy correction or the start of a worrying trend.

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A year ago, the US yield curve inverted, raising the probability of a recession as such moves so often have signaled in past market cycles. Equity markets have defied the gloom, though, and the long forecast earnings recession that was expected to follow has been harder to spot than the economic recession. Our guest this week, Fred Goodwin, argues that all may be about to change, with many of 2023s winning views at risk.

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It's a question increasingly asked in market discussions, especially since the brief period of deficit drama in the UK last year - is the weight of sovereign debt too much for investors to bear? And, if not yet, is there a level of yields at which debt spirals become more likely? Marvin Loh, senior strategist on our team in the US, is back to discuss those questions, as well as to provide guidance on what to expect ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

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At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast this week to offer thoughts on how EM has built a degree of resilience and whether the stability seen so far this year can continue.

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China's post-COVID reopening was seen as a potential tailwind for global growth when other economies were seen slowing thanks to tighter monetary and fiscal policy. The reality has been a bit less impressive, with Chinese growth still failing to launch. Yuting Shao from our Emerging Markets team updates us on China's progress, focusing on what further support is still to come and what it all means for the beleaguered CNY.

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Higher yields change the game for asset allocators around the world, with pensions in particular now able to better match liabilities to assets. In the UK specifically, 20 years of previously persistent trends in asset allocations now require a reassessment. And this week’s general election carries with it a potential expansion of the investor’s opportunity set. To unpack what can be a very opaque and complicated investing landscape, this week’s guest, Toby Nangle, an independent analyst and contributing editor at the Financial Times, could not be better placed. We talk through how past market movements and ongoing political realities shape the outlook for UK assets and the pound.

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With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant, who takes us around the world, modelling risk in geopolitics and focusing on the probability of seismic changes for markets.

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Next week's Federal Reserve meeting is likely to mean a resumption of rate hikes after June's wait-and-see approach. The main question for markets is what happens after that? Marvin Loh joins Tim to discuss where terminal rates may go and when a policy pivot might come. They also talk about how the shape of the Fed's balance sheet might change in the coming year and whether worries over USD funding are legitimate.

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Asia and China specifically have undergone a significant reassessment of expectations in 2023 - from the consensus, re-opening led optimism at the start of the year to facing the realities of sluggish demand and a weaker trade environment. Now, rising oil prices and a stronger dollar threaten this already fragile mix and, this week, Ben Luk from our Emerging Markets strategy team helps us to disentangle which of these risks remain relevant, versus those where the worst news is likely priced in.

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Previously only available to State Street's clients, Street Signals goes public! In this opening episode, we introduce the State Street Institutional Investor Indicators (3is), a new set of tools for investors. State Street's 3is provide a view of the positioning, risk appetite and portfolio carbon exposure of the world's largest institutional investors based on aggregated and anonymized post-trade data. That means they offer a window into what global investors are actually doing, not what they say they're doing. Join host Tim Graf in conversation with State Street Global Markets' Head of Research, Will Kinlaw, to discuss how these indicators work and what they reveal right now.

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The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy transmission has gone mostly as expected. Or has it? This week, Marvin Loh checks in with his thoughts on that question, as well as what message to expect, what actions the Fed and other central banks will ultimately take and when they might take them.

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2023 has been a most unusual year. Despite significant stress in the US banking system early in the year, an ongoing war in Europe, a new war in the Middle East and gyrations in rate markets, volatility has fallen from last year's highs, back to range lows. This week, we are pleased to welcome our head of Global Markets, Tony Bisegna, to Street Signals to discuss why 2023 seemed more quiet, whether that calm will extend into next year and if the major economies can avoid recession for another year, with outlooks for equities, fixed income and currencies offered along the way.

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More central banks are sounding like they want to pause and take a break from fighting inflation, to assess how their efforts play out after some tentative, initial success. Our metrics from PriceStats have proven valuable in assessing this progress and Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and a professor at Harvard Business School, is back with us this week to talk it through. He has an update on whether the trend breaks towards disinflation that we saw across many economies earlier this year have extended over the summer, or if its time to start worrying about prices picking back up again more broadly as oil prices jump.

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Asset allocation decisions are difficult enough, but especially so in the current environment, with the paths of growth and inflation so unclear. A recent paper by Mark Kritzman, one of our academic partners, and David Turkington, Head of State Street Associates, helps frame this quandary, using techniques that help determine the most relevant historic comparatives, towards making better, more informed predictions in an application to portfolio construction.

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With decades of experience as an FX trader, portfolio manager and writer, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, is an ideal guest for a period when currency markets are quiet, range-bound and looking for inspiration. We walk through his career path, particularly how he has adapted to changing market regimes and worked to counteract behavioral biases over the years. And, with central bank policy still the dominant factor in the market mindset, driving activity over short and long term horizons, we conclude with Brent's current thoughts on interest rate market pricing, volatility and what it means for the near-term direction of currencies. Check Brent out on Twitter (@donnelly_brent) and on his Substack.

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The year is winding down and thoughts are shifting to what will drive markets in the New Year. There will be unknown unknowns that will surely move markets, but in this special edition we will focus on the best ideas we have to express views on the known unknowns. Every year the Macro Strategy team members independently choose the idea they think has the best chance of success in the coming year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. Tim Graf and the team draw it all together in this Special Edition of Street Signals.

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Following on the heels of our top trades in equities, rates and FX, this week Street Signals brings a broader discussion of the biggest questions for financial markets in the coming months. Is global growth set to slow dramatically or are expectations now too low? What does that mean for risk markets? Will geopolitics have a greater influence in 2024 than they did this year? Dwyfor Evans, Lee Ferridge and Marija Veitmane join the podcast to talk things through.

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And the end of 2023, Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, published a piece highlighting where our research offered a differential to market consensus throughout the year. This week, he is back on the podcast to talk about where those potential surprises may or may not be resolving and what investors can expect as a consequence, with narratives and trends forming as we move deeper into 2024.

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Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry trade over? It all gets answered this week.

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Our annual series of Research conferences around the world came to a close this week, with events across Europe. This week, Tim flies solo and gives a summary of the outlook for macro and markets for the remainder of this year into 2024, informed as ever by the message from our unique suite of indicators of institutional investor behaviour, risk and inflation.

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It's rare to find someone who can speak with expertise on one topic let alone three or four, but we're lucky enough to have Ramu Thiagarajan, Senior Investment Advisor for State Street, to do just that. Ramu and colleagues have published a recent paper on the prospects for de-dollarization, a topic of great interest in both markets and geopolitics that we discuss this week. But equally interesting and important is the expansive background from which Ramu works, marrying academic finance with real-world practice in building his multi-asset outlook, a process we detail in building up to his recent work.

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The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions.

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Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.

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A soft landing for the US and possibly the global economy looks achievable, but is it desirable? In the short-run, surely, yes. But in the long-run? Dan Gerard joins us this week to walk through a potential second order risk of complacency on inflation that such an outcome might catalyze, particularly if global labor markets do not loosen further. For investors, this does not mean a rerun of 2022 - thank goodness for that! We complete the discussion with portfolio implications over the remainder of this year.

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Inflation is in retreat - not at a pace fast enough for the Fed to abandon its stance of tighter monetary policy but enough that the Fed skipped a rate hike at its most recent policy meeting. During a pivotal two weeks of central bank meetings, where inflation remains top of mind, what now? Join Tim as he discusses the outlook for inflation and monetary policy with State Street Global Markets' Head of Macro Strategy, Michael Metcalfe. Drawing on PriceStats and State Street's other real-time data tools, Michael provides an up to the minute inflation reading and considers the likelihood of a prolonged pause in rate hikes and the prospect of rate cuts.

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The first few weeks of 2024 see interest rate markets in flux, assessing and re-assessing the extent of forthcoming policy easing cycles from the world's major central banks. Crucial to the outlook for rates is the likelihood of each achieving the hallowed soft landing - a normalization of inflation with minimal hiccups from a weaker labor market or below trend growth. Some economies stand a better chance than others achieving this outcome. In this context, Simona Mocuta, chief economist for State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss where that potential most likely lies.

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Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lifetime of experience in formulating currency policy at the US Department of the Treasury and as US representative to the IMF, Mark Sobel, US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), joins the podcast to discuss many of the most far-reaching and relevant themes driving FX markets today. He details his thinking on the potential success of ongoing intervention in the Japanese yen, the centrality of the US dollar in trade and global finance and the history and current themes of RMB valuation and currency diplomacy.

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Low and stable currency market volatility is feeding interest in yield-seeking strategies to a degree not seen in years. How long can the good times last and carry remain king? This week, we put the current period of low FX volatility into historic market context and note any early warning signs of a change in fortunes for strategies that sell volatility and earn yield. Fred Goodwin makes a cameo contribution, to offer a final, cautionary note on the specific dynamics in emerging markets.

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