Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast (ReSolve Asset Management)

Today’s conversation is with David Berns, an emerging thought leader in asset allocation and behavioral finance, who is pushing the boundaries on how to best measure real-world behavioral preferences and build optimal portfolios that actively incorporate this extra information.

We open the conversation with a discussion of his involvement in the design and launch of three new ETFs, which seek to deliver an investment experience that addresses both traditional mean-variance preferences, and also accounts for real investor behavioural and cognitive biases. We then discuss core themes from his new book, “Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management”, which marries advances in portfolio optimization with a scientific approach to measuring real investment risk preferences.

I was impressed with David’s thinking about fundamental investment principles and driving ambition to go beyond traditional portfolio formation techniques to account for loss aversion and reflection, and higher moments of the return distribution. It’s clear David genuinely cares about client satisfaction with their investment experience and is advocating for ways to treat clients as unique individuals with novel preferences and goals.

This discussion has something for everyone from advisors to portfolio managers to planners and even for end investors.

Mark Kritzman graduated with a business degree in a time of intense crisis and change in financial markets, and this experience shaped the arc of his career. He has dedicated his professional life to the study of asset allocation and portfolio optimization and his papers on these and other topics have earned over a dozen top awards in finance, including nine Bernstein/Fabozzi/Levy Awards.

This conversation between ReSolve’s CIO Adam Butler and Mark is loosely guided by core themes from Mark’s newest book, “A Practitioner’s Guide to Asset Allocation”. Mark describes why he embraces Samuelson’s Dictum and how this has motivated his focus on asset allocation as the most fertile ground for active returns. Relatively small traders can drive mis-priced securities back to equilibrium but asset classes can – and do – stray far from equilibrium because traders lack the capital necessary to correct mis-pricings on their own. This is exacerbated by other barriers to arbitrage like institutional tracking error constraints and benchmark-oriented incentives.

Given Mark’s views it’s not surprising that his team at Windham Capital focuses mostly on Tactical Asset Allocation. He expresses the view that the policy portfolio concept is profoundly misguided since markets have highly unstable distributions. Dynamic markets imply that optimal portfolios should change over time in response to changes in expected return, risk and correlation dynamics.

Mark makes the case that portfolio optimization gets a bad rap but that most of the protests are disingenuous. Sure, out-of-the box optimization is error-maximizing on portfolio weights but that’s irrelevant for a few simple reasons, most prominently because no one with any sense would use an optimizer out-of-the-box, but also because while small changes in portfolio estimates might lead to large changes in weights, the expected mean and variance of the portfolio would hardly change at all. We address the 1/N arguments and Mark makes clear why they’re bunk.

We cover a lot more ground but toward the end Mark divulges that he’s publishing a new paper with mind-blowing implications. I won’t give away the plot here…

Mark has forgotten more about finance than most investors will learn in their career. Put down what you’re doing and listen to this right now.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

To help us make sense of this market we invited Chris Schindler back to discuss:

• Why the next 10 years are likely to be very challenging and different from the past 10 years
• Why investors should set very low return expectations for virtually every major asset-class
• The power of recency bias and lottery-ticket (wishful) thinking
• The role of commodities and how to use them effectively in a portfolio
• Portfolio construction as a source of both risk and possible alpha
• The dangers of mispricing risk of private investments and assumed negative correlations

We also discussed how Risk Parity is a) disastrously mis-specified by most investors and b) held to a much higher standard than almost any other investment approach, even though it is still the most coherent starting point for a global diversified portfolio.

Thank you for watching and participating with your questions. See you next week.

In this episode, we dive deep into the world of financial markets and economic models with our guest, Joaquin Kritz Lara from Numera Analytics. We explore the importance of a probabilistic approach, the role of uncertainty, the dynamics of inflation, and much more.

• The importance of a probabilistic approach in financial markets and the disregard around uncertainty

• The role of economists and their strong beliefs around how the world works

• The dynamics of inflation and its impact on financial markets

• The importance of acknowledging that you don't know the full truth and adapting priors based on new information

• The potential risks and rewards of investing in regional banks

• The impact of inflation on the valuation of assets and the potential for downturns in certain sectors

• The potential of policy support in China and its impact on the global economy

• The potential for growth in India and the challenges it faces

• The impact of the dollar on the global economy and the potential for its decline

This episode provides a deep dive into the intricacies of financial markets, economic models, and the global economy. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of these topics and gaining valuable insights to navigate the uncertain financial landscape.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, Adam, Rod and Mike review a new whitepaper called Peering Around Corners: How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures. They cover the motivation, methods, analysis and conclusions including:

·       why managed futures produce strong returns

·       the role of managed futures in a stock / bond portfolio

·       why every strategy is vulnerable to lost decades, and the role of diversification

·       why investors probably shouldn’t be worried about flows to managed futures

·       why replication does not negate the presence of manager alpha

·       how replication is related to returns based style analysis

·       how other authors replicated Buffet’s alpha and how it relates

·       why one might want to replicate a managed futures index

·       choice of simple vs complex replication methods

·       top down replication methods - pros and cons

·       bottom up replication methods - pros and cons

·       why top down and bottom up replication complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses

·       how well a combination of top down and bottom up replicates the trend following index

·       why investors might expect to achieve fee alpha from managed futures replication

·       and much more…

This discussion of a new whitepaper should help investors understand how replication strategies work and the role that a managed futures replication strategy might play in portfolios.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National...

Anyone who is responsible for stewarding wealth, from a high net worth person, to a family office, to an investment firm, to a pension plan.

We discuss:

• Long term preservation of wealth for 30, 50, 100 years
• Building an investment “house” to weather all storms
• The difference between earning wealth and protecting it long term
• Clearing the “high confidence” bar

Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Our guest this week was David Cervantes, founder of Pine Brook Capital Management. With a rich and diverse background within the investment industry, in the last few years David has dedicated his time to managing his family office and has been developing a macroeconomic framework that considers the objectives and incentives of policymakers as the primary economic drivers. Our conversation included topics such as:

• Empirical economic analyses and insights from the ‘school of hard knocks’
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• Fundamentally, a process of elimination – determining first what not to do
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• Less theory, more data
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• Where his approach materially diverges from traditional economics
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• Cognitive Perspective – treating models with respect, but never reverence
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• Macroeconomics is basically ‘political economy in drag’
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• A dynamic process of incentives and decisions made by political actors
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• The role of ‘timing luck’ (or misfortune)
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• A stroll down history lane – from WWII and the Great Society to the present
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• A closer look at the gargantuan US federal budget deficit
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• Current backdrop – an ‘inflationary supernova’ fueled by fiscal impulse
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• The Fed’s current reaction function
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• Home prices, OER and how they affect CPI
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• Why interest rate volatility matters significantly more than absolute levels
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• How interest rate vol spills over into the risk premia continuum
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• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

We had a very special guest this week – Roy Niederhoffer, founder and president of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, a NY-based quantitative investment firm. With a strong musical background and an original plan to become a neuroscientist, Roy might have led an academic life if it weren’t for his programming skills and an offer to join his older brother’s hedge fund, one that he couldn’t refuse. He joined us for a fascinating conversation, covering topics such as:

• His early life, a diverse set of interests and becoming a highly-skilled generalist
• Striking out on his own – why would an institution ever invest with a 26-year old running computers in his living room?
• Developing short-duration strategies that are uncorrelated to both traditional and alternative investments
• Long volatility vs short volatility strategies
• The inescapable dopamine rush of capital markets and the importance of managing emotions
• Trend-following, convexity, and why the frequency of observations matters so much
• Behavioral neuroscience applied to markets
• Leaning into the work of Danny Kahneman and dissecting his magnum opus over dozens of weekly sessions
• Identifying price patterns that will trigger predictable emotional responses from market participants – therein lies the edge
• The difference between strategy management and risk management
• Printing of fiat money and the conditions for an elimination event that can wipe out multi-generational wealth

He also summarized his general investment theory, which seeks to identify asset-class characteristics that can be generalized, those that will remain idiosyncratic, and some that might eventually spill over into other markets. Roy is a true polymath, with a unique perspective and a generous disposition to share his knowledge.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, we have the pleasure of hosting James A. Bianco, Founder of Bianco Research Advisors. Bianco shares his insights on a wide range of topics, from his macroeconomic framework to the impact of inflation on the global economy. This conversation also delves into the implications of the current political and military climate outside the U.S. and the workings of the Bianco Total Return Index.

Topics Discussed

• A brief introduction to James A. Bianco's career trajectory and the establishment of Bianco Research Advisors

• Understanding Bianco's macroeconomic framework, including his approach to analyzing the macro space and the key indicators he focuses on

• An in-depth discussion on inflation, its current state, and its potential

implications on the global economy

• Exploring the role of the Federal Reserve in managing inflation expectations and the potential risks associated with their strategies

• A look at the current political and military landscape outside the U.S., and its potential impact on the global economy

• Discussion on the potential impact of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea on the global supply chain and inflation

• Insights into the bond market, including the potential impact of higher

interest rates on the equity market

• An exploration of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's role in advising the Treasury on bond and note issuance

• A discussion on the potential signals for a hard economic landing or recession, and what could indicate a stronger economy than anticipated

• An introduction to the Bianco Total Return Index and a discussion on the future of actively managed ETFs in the equity market

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macroeconomics, inflation, and the global economy. Bianco's insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape and offer valuable strategies for navigating potential future scenarios.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Many traditional value or factor based investors have been scratching their heads for the past few years, wondering whether a shift in fundamental dynamics may have permanently altered the way markets behave. Corey Hoffstein has been wondering the same thing, which prompted him to spend the last several months speaking to experts in options trading, market microstructure, and the hidden effects of passive index investing about how these forces may be reshaping the underlying market ecosystem.

These conversations and subsequent analyses led to the publication of Corey’s latest whitepaper on Liquidity Cascades, where he seeks to triangulate impacts from several potential paradigm shifts to identify what’s driving price action in today’s markets. We cover all the major themes from the paper and discuss practical implications and key risks for investors over the next few years. Corey shares some new charts and analysis, and elaborates on key figures and themes from the paper that you won’t want to miss.

As soon as Corey published the paper I couldn’t wait to do a deep dive with Corey just like this. And as usual, the conversation did not disappoint.

Please enjoy this conversation with Corey Hoffstein on Liquidity Cascades.

Wade Pfau is Professor of Retirement Income at The American College and has published several books on retirement, most recently The Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating The Important Decisions For Retirement Success. He joined us for an awesome discussion that included:

• The drawbacks of privatized retirement plans
• Why longevity pooling is so important
• Trade-offs between defined benefits and defined contribution plans
• Varying incentives across countries
• How different systems can withstand long-term shocks
• Path dependency, sequence of returns and the most crucial period for a retirement portfolio
• Motivations for writing his latest book and debunking retirement myths
• Safety First vs Probability First
• Optionality vs Commitment
• Different profiles and preferences, and a framework to accommodate them all
• A controversial take on the importance of asset allocation
• Why a 4% withdrawal rate is the least efficient approach
• Navigating the tax maze
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

We had the pleasure this week of speaking with Cem Karsan (the pronunciation can be a bit challenging, bit the hint is in his Twitter handle - @jam_croissant), founder of Kai Volatility Advisors. His deep knowledge of market structures and investment flows took us on a fascinating conversation that included:

• Joining a team early in his career that would become one of the Street’s largest options market makers
• Developing a profound understanding of the reflexive game of dealer positioning and its feedback effects on asset prices
• Launching Kai Volatility Advisors and three uncorrelated strategies
• A quantitative approach with a discretionary overlay
• The circumstances under which dealer flow becomes most relevant
• The upcoming June expiration and the ‘massive delta’ hovering over the market
• Distributions vs expectations
• The remarkable advances in the options market over the last two decades
• The ‘dramatic oversupply’ of volatility and its underperformance as an asset-class
• The JP Morgan Equity Hedge giant and its impact on the market
• Efficiency, transparency and performance – the trade-offs between ETFs and private pools
• Cem’s global macro perspective and his take on the current environment
• The explosive combination of cheap capital and technological innovation
• The road to inflation – inequality, populism and a pandemic-induced fiscal trigger of titanic proportions
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

For the opening episode of the new year we had the pleasure of speaking with Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research, which seeks to democratize access to elite financial research to the general public. This great conversation covered several topics, including:

• A macro framework focused on the interplay between the real and financial economies, and the business cycle
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• The main driving forces in markets and the economy: growth, inflation and liquidity
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• Key variables for measuring liquidity
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• Creating the condition for potential asymmetric returns
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• How the increase in the stock of assets facilitates other activities
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• The original aim of quantitative easing
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• The contest between the ‘Dot Plot’ and the yield curve
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• The signaling mechanism of price levels
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• The biases and shortcomings of the CPI
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• Cyclical vs secular inflation
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• How economies have evolved in the last few decades
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• Why inflation volatility may be asymmetric
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• The false diversification of the 60/40
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• Why increased uncertainty usually signals a turning point
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• Updating priors – a ‘burden of evidence’ approach
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• Fluctuating edges and the challenges of volatility targeting
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• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Phil Huber is the Chief Investment Officer of Savant Wealth Management, and author of The Allocator's Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification. He joined us for a great discussion that covered topics such as:

• Educating advisors on the role of alternative strategies in portfolios and their benefits
• Recency bias and why “hindsight is 60/40”
• A different approach to building a truly balanced portfolio
• Why allocators find it difficult to diversify away from stocks and bonds, despite recognizing how expensive they currently are
• Dealing with an environment that most financial professionals have never come across in their lives
• Embracing alternative risk premiums and trying to understand why they work
• Private equity and hedge funds – the ‘gateway’ alts
• Niche vs large managers – why size matters and finding the sweet spot
• Path dependency and sequence of returns
• Communication challenges and getting clients across the line to embrace a novel approach
• Line item risk vs portfolio ‘gestalt’
• Fiduciary responsibilities, diversification, fees and behavioral considerations
• Behavioral coaching as an integral part of an advisor’s job
• A wide range of experiences and unrealistic expectations – why alternative strategies haven’t been fully embraced by retail investors
• In the absence of value, we negotiate price
• Overcrowding, passive-flows and factor underperformance
• The pitfalls of overly conservative assumptions
• Minimizing regret vs maximizing utility
• Plan vs planning – a perpetual, ongoing exercise

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we welcomed back our good friend Jason Buck (founder and CIO of Mutiny Fund) for the final episode before the summer break. Our conversation included:

• Recent price action in the commodity space
• The incredible confidence of the ‘buy the dip’ equity investors
• An end to the “bad news is good news” regime
• The mental pivot required to successfully navigate regime shift
• Why prolonged bear markets have become a foreign idea to most investors
• The kind of environment in which the difference between nominal and real returns matters most
• Human’s constant pursuit of historical analogues
• The Farmer’s Fable, macro efficiency and a mentality of abundance
• The opportunities created by the blind-spots in traditional portfolios and the allure of an ‘esoteric fringe’
• A harmonious core and a zero-sum explorer
• Observing the ongoing evolution of the zeitgeist
• Evidence-based zealotry
• Two types of scientific theories – those that have been disproven, and those that one day will be
• An eternal struggle between the brain’s hemispheres – falsifiable simplicity vs intellectual rabbit-holes
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this comprehensive exploration of global liquidity, Michael Howell shares his expertise and insights on a range of critical topics affecting financial markets, economies, and investment opportunities. Throughout the discussion, the following themes are explored: •Central bank policies, inflation, and market liquidity: Global perspectives and challenges • Monetary policy, government spending and inflation: Impacts on the global economy and investment • Global liquidity, monetary inflation, and central bank balance sheets: Evolving dynamics and effects • Quantitative easing, liquidity, and the US Dollar: Challenges and implications for policymakers • Government spending, inflation and global money flows: Impacts on currency and financial markets • Central bank strategies, inflation and liquidity: Managing growth in a debt-ridden economy • Government fiscal policies, liquidity and debt management: Global perspectives and impacts • US dollar dominance, global liquidity and market implications: Exploring currency and capital • Interest rates, quantitative easing and global liquidity: Investment strategies and economic effects This intensive examination of global liquidity is ideal for anyone interested in understanding the complexities and impacts of liquidity on financial markets, economies and investment decisions. Don't miss out on these valuable insights and analyses to help you stay informed and adaptable in today's constantly changing financial landscape.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Even the term used to describe this asset-class is loaded with controversy. Some say cryptocurrency is a misnomer, since Bitcoin and its lesser known brethren can neither be considered a medium of exchange nor a store of value. Rob Furse (co-founder & president of Echelon Wealth Partners) and Matthew Edwards (CEO & CIO of Dalpha Capital Management) would certainly disagree with the latter. We invited them to discuss this and other topics including:

• The role of crypto (currencies or assets) in investors’ portfolios
• Can bitcoin really be thought of as ‘digital gold’?
• How to position these assets using both legacy and newer investment frameworks
• What the endorsement of well-known money managers does for Bitcoin
• Regulatory hurdles and the road to institutional acceptance

We also debated the current global macro backdrop and why ideas like MMT will likely push an ever-growing number of investors to venture into the crypto space. There may also have been some brief speculation regarding the identity of the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, author of the original Bitcoin whitepaper.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

Traditional portfolios are faced with the prospects of depressed expected returns in the coming years, as implied by current stretched valuations of stocks, and near record low rates and credit spreads for bonds. Our recently released paper – Return Stacking: Strategies for Overcoming a Low Return Environment – co-authored by Rodrigo and our good friend Corey Hoffstein, shows how investors may materially improve their chances of success by allocating to uncorrelated managers that may offer more ‘bang for your buck’ and free up valuable ‘portfolio real-estate’. Fielding questions from the ‘Twittersphere’ as well as our live audience, this episode covers:

• The pitfalls of emulating large institutions with limited portfolio agility and mandate flexibility
• Stellar returns and recency bias – why so many investors remain anchored to the ‘60/40 portfolio’
• Why stocks and bonds are structurally not designed to thrive in high inflation and/or low growth environments
• How loose fiscal policy, layered atop highly expansive monetary policy, strengthens the case for persistent inflation
• A trip down portfolio theory memory lane
• Risk transformation and financial alchemy
• Leverage aversion – concentrated bets vs capital efficient diversified return streams
• Structural diversification, tracking error and absolute returns
• Return stacking as a form of liability hedging for advisors
• Finding structural edges and tilting the odds in one’s favor

The team also discussed the importance of separating the underlying components of any strategy, not only across asset-classes, but also beta, alpha, styles, and tilts, in order to use them as building blocks to create tailored portfolios with desired exposures.

There’s also an “Easter Egg” where Adam discusses the results of a forthcoming paper on the shockingly large potential benefits of trade and fee netting in multi-strategy products.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Convexity is one of those concepts that even if you understand it, explaining it to someone can still be hard, especially for a layperson. Unless you are the Convexity Maven, in which case it is second nature and you can apparently explain it to your mom. We had the pleasure of hosting Harley Bassman, creator of the popular MOVE Index, for a wide ranging and truly entertaining conversation that covered topics such as:

• Sharpening the blade - the value of working with people that challenge your ideas
• Calculus for everyday use – it’s actually simpler than most people think
• Policy responses (and mistakes) following the Great Financial Crisis
• His predictions for Treasury rates, MMT, and what indicators might cause him to change his mind
• Millennials, Baby Boomers, demography and inflation
• How fiscal and monetary tools might affect the US dollar
• How Risk Parity might navigate the coming years
• Gold as a currency
• Favorite themes and trade ideas for this environment

Harley also brought a slide deck and walked us through some interesting charts as he described his investment thesis, so you might want to check out the video version of this episode.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

His hypothesis on the adverse effects of passive investments in market behavior has catapulted him into the spotlight, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Earlier this year he became one of our most popular podcast guests; this time Mike Green (Logica Capital) returned with guns blazing. In a less formal and less constrained happy hour conversation, we discussed:

• Logica’s long-volatility strategy and use of options for different exposures
• What an end game might look like if the drive towards passive continues unabated
• Inflation, interest-rates and MMT
• How Buffett sometimes plays a version of liar’s poker with the market
• Covid, the economy and a possible paradigm shift
• A golden age for impostors and the benefits of being too big to fail

The conversation branched into demographics, philosophy and history, including a re-examination of the 1970’s stagflation – for which Mike offered an alternate interpretation (and broke an icon or two along the way).

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Bob Elliot (who can be found on Twitter @BobEUnlimited), CIO at Unlimited, a new investment firm that launched a hedge fund replication strategy in ETF format. Our conversation included:

• Bob’s career and especially his years at Bridgewater Associates
• The synergies between macro research and systematic investing
• Systems that create discipline and leverage (the non-financial kind)
• A better sense-making process within an investment framework
• Why most intuitions are inaccurate
• Identifying inconsistencies between one’s framework and new data
• How the signaling power and precision of any variable can change over time
• Dealing with the scarcity of macro data points within a systematic approach
• Why there is no such thing as a single most important variable in macro investing
• No certainty, just a probabilistic range of outcomes
• Why diversification is one of the fundamental laws of asset management
• The importance of maximizing the number of independent bets in low signal-to-noise domains
• Why the starting point for Bob’s personal portfolio is Risk Parity
• The folly of singularly focusing on the S&P500
• Avoid going “all-in” into any single scenario, no matter how compelling the narrative
• And so much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team talks with Oliver Rust, Head of Product at Truflation, a blockchain-based project that aims to provide real-time inflation forecasting. We discuss a range of topics, including:

• The current challenges in measuring inflation and the potential benefits of utilizing blockchain technology in inflation forecasting
• An introduction to Truflation and its mission to provide more accurate, real-time inflation data
• How decentralized oracles can help improve the accuracy and reliability of inflation forecasting
• The potential impact of recent central bank actions on inflation and the global economy
• Jerome Powell's tough position as the head of the Federal Reserve and his focus on his legacy
• The complexity of managing inflation, employment, and financial stability simultaneously
• The role of the Fed and the government in supporting local and regional banks during turbulent economic times
• The importance of new inflation measurement tools like Truflation in helping investors make better allocation decisions
• The long-term implications of current economic policies on inflation and financial markets
• How to get involved with and follow the developments of Truflation and its data

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of inflation management, the potential benefits of blockchain technology in forecasting, and the role of central banks in a rapidly changing global economy. Discover insights and strategies to navigate these intricate markets and stay informed on the latest developments in real-time inflation forecasting.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

We were joined this week by our friends Wes Gray (Alpha Architect) and Tobias Carlisle (Acquirers Funds) to discuss value investing, its prolonged winter and how it has fared in the current environment. This broad conversation includes:

• How value has historically outperformed growth, despite appearing to lag most of the time
• The mental – and emotional – fortitude required to stick with it during tough periods
• Active share – disaggregating value from broad equity beta
• Difference between harvesting Value in Long-Only vs Long-Short strategies
• Raw yields vs Excess yields
• Separating Value from Quality

The group also compared different value metrics against portfolio turnover and capacity, their relative cheapness with respect to the market as well as versus themselves over time.

Please enjoy this episode and join us live next week!

Our good friend Eric Balchunas (Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence) joined us once again, this time to discuss his new book “The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions”.

We covered topics that included:

• Bogle’s early life as a university student and his 1949 thesis
• Becoming the young CEO of Wellington Fund at age 35
• Bogle’s initial enthusiasm with active management before building his “passive juggernaut”
• The beginnings of Vanguard – starting off as a “back-office company”
• His rough yet friendly attitude to competitors
• Vanguard as the “Amazon of asset managers”
• Giving people what they wanted before they even knew it
• Mutual ownership structure as a key feature of the ETF revolution
• Growing and taking market share from “closet beta” funds
• Vanguard took 30 years to get to USD 1 trillion in AUM, and another 15 years to get to USD 8T
• Crypto ETFs as a possible next step for Vanguard
• Thematic ETFs as the “hot sauce” on top of vanilla portfolios
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we welcomed back Andy Constan (CEO / CIO of Damped Spring Advisors) and thought-provoking commentator on financial markets. His deep understanding of the global macro landscape and structure of markets, as always, made for a fascinating conversation that covered:

• A disciple of two completely different and complimentary schools of global macro excellence
• Navigating his portfolio in 2022 through the Twitter looking glass
• Listening between the lines and hearing the drumbeat of quantitative tightening (QT) early on
• In the old days, understanding inflation and growth was enough for capital allocation
• The game is now mostly about policymakers’ toolkit, stimuli, and their impact on flows
• The driving force of equity derivatives and their huge impact in the second half of last year
• Under normal circumstances, commercial banks account for the lion’s share of money creation and liquidity
• Issuance, roll-offs, and duration management – the mechanics behind the Fed’s balance sheet
• Credit and leverage as a function of banks’ ability and willingness to expand their own balance sheets
• The role of duration in the Fed’s balance sheet activity
• Why Japan, the original QE trailblazer, was ineffective in its efforts to support asset prices for many years
• Compression of risk premia, asset inflation, and a weak transmission mechanism towards wealth effects and increased consumption
• Valuation multiples as the inverse of risk premia
• Multiples expansion as the primary mechanism for QE-driven asset bubbles
• Debt monetization as the medium-term bogey on the radar
• How the Fed relinquished control of QT duration to the Treasury
• And so much more

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

For the last 12 years, the Fed and other major central banks have exerted overwhelming influence and power over investors’ behavior and capital markets. Since the pandemic began, governments have been forced to step up and unleash a fiscal tsunami to help ailing economies during the deepest recession in living memory. To make sense of this convoluted macroeconomic environment, we invited Jeff Weniger (WisdomTree) for a wide-ranging conversation that included:

• Birthrates in western countries and their impact on growth
• Fiscal and monetary policies
• The power of narrative in driving animal spirits
• Inflation and the velocity of money
• Mega cap stocks and other market distortions

We also discussed how families have adapted to shelter-in-place measures and the implications on the jobs and housing markets. Jeff shared data and multiple anecdotes, which made this both highly informative and very entertaining.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

For this podcast we had the pleasure of being joined by Fred Pye, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of 3iQ Corp. He is also the Chairman of 3iQ Digital Holdings Inc. 3iQ is a pioneer manager in the digital asset space, with a variety of Canadian and international mutual funds and ETFs providing access to a variety of cryptocurrencies.

On this episode we discuss:

• The early history of trailblazing unique asset classes
• The QSC/OSC and Bitcoin – a commodity, a security or a currency
• Closed-end funds – their advantages for investors
• Four years, plus 10,000 pages of due diligence
• Frontier asset classes and client retention
• The impact of Bitcoin on third world economies
• The future of the Blockchain

We thoroughly enjoyed this episode and hope that you will too. See you next week.

This is GestaltU from ReSolve Asset Management where we debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*.

This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan (CEO / CIO at Damped Spring Advisors) and prolific member of the FinTwit community under the @dampedspring penname. Our conversation spanned topics including:

• His long and interesting career in the investment world
• Starting with equity derivatives and eventually earning his ‘global macro education’ at Bridgewater Associates
• The constantly evolving challenge of generating alpha
• Trading and managing portfolios at scale and the importance of liquidity
• Separating alpha from beta
• Basis risk vs liquidity risk
• The broad macro picture vs what is priced in
• The unique challenges posed by the current environment
• The front-running of quantitative tightening
• The daily marking to market of risk premia
• The weak link between consumer inflation and the Fed’s balance sheet
• The interplay between the Fed, the Treasury and the bond market
• Interpreting the messages coming from policymakers
• The importance of positioning data and rebalancing flows
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Brian Moriarty, Associate Director of Fixed Income at Morningstar Research Services, and Dave Nadig, Chief Futurist at VettaFi Financial, to discuss the recent demise of Credit Suisse and the complexities of capital structure in banks. They explore various topics, including:

• The persistent overweight of fixed-income mutual funds in financials, and in particular, banks

• The impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the capital structure of banks and the regulations put in place

• The fertile hunting ground for active managers in the complex capital structure of banks

• The Credit Suisse trade setup and its implications for fixed-income portfolios

• A comparison of capital structures between regulated banks and traditional US corporates

• The unique contractual clauses and outcomes of European and US preferred shares, specifically contingent convertible bonds (Cocos) and Tier 1 capital (AT1)

• The nuances between Swiss and other European banks' AT1 and regulatory requirements

• The performance of the capital structure regulations since the global financial crisis

• The importance of understanding the risks and nuances within different levels of the capital structure

• The role of bank counterparties and the potential risks they pose to the

Whether stemming from a recession, a policy shock, a terrorist attack, or a global pandemic, financial markets periodically go through major selloffs. It has always been this way. Euphoria eventually leads to panic, every time. Another way to look at these crashes is through the lens of volatility (and its commensurate rise), which has become a fundamental component of investment decisions. As time goes by, innovations can (and will) suppress volatility and can sometimes give the impression that risk has been eliminated, but that is always a fool’s dream. Eventually the piper must be paid.

Our guests this week were Benn Eifert (Founder & CIO) and Scott Maidel (Head of Business Development), of QVR Advisors, a boutique asset manager that specializes in strategies seeking to profit from volatility and all its downstream effects – including attempts to suppress it. We covered:

• How markets fundamentally changed following the Great Financial Crisis
• Call overwriting – the favorite strategy of yield-thirsty institutions
• Why ‘selling vol’ is too broad a term and has all but lost its meaning
• Everybody wants protection – reflexivity and the options tail that wags the equity dog
• The behemoth equity hedged strategy that now moves the market at the end of every quarter
• “Gradually, then suddenly” – the nature of volatility
• Gamma & Vanna – the second-order ‘Greeks’ and their outsized influence in short-term moves
• Execution is key – don’t trade against the Flash Boys
• Buying what you don’t want to build
• Systematic vs Quant

Benn and Scott also described in detail QVR’s two main lines of business – absolute return and tailored solutions – providing insight into their processes and competitive advantages. We also discussed the distinct nature of different market crashes, trade monetization, rebalancing, and much more. It was a fascinating conversation and a true lesson on the current structure of equity markets.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

If you’ve been following international news over the past few years, you’ve likely noticed brewing tensions between major countries, even before the pandemic struck. Proxy wars, diplomatic tensions and regional skirmishes have been flaring up across the globe. To help us make sense of these events and how they may impact financial markets, we had the distinct pleasure of hosting none other than Dr. Pippa Malmgren, former presidential advisor, best-selling and award winning author. Her expertise sits at the intersection of geopolitics, economics and technology, leading to a wide-ranging conversation that covered topics such as:

• Family business – growing up in Washington, D.C. as the daughter of an advisor to four US presidents
• Why members of the armed forces are operating as if there is already a global conflict at hand
• Disputed borders, near misses and the risk of miscalculations – skirmishes below most peoples’ radar
• Thucydides Trap – Rising China, declining US and the possibility of superpowers clashing
• Political polarization in the US and globally
• Information bubbles and the search for common purpose
• The Great Gatsby vs The Grapes of Wrath – two opposing narratives emanating from the same catalyst
• AI, Quantum Computing and Robotics – a closer look at the 21st century’s battlefield

We also discussed the positive and negative effects of the digital age and the exponential increase in available information, the race for natural resources in the Arctic, opportunities and risks investors should be mindful of, and much more. Pippa was on her usual top form and very generous with her time, which made for a fascinating and highly entertaining episode.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, a macro strategist and the creator of the popular Twitter account @MacroAlf, to discuss liquidity, the global macro landscape, and the implications for investors. We delve into various topics, including • The impact of demographics and debt on economic growth and the challenges faced by countries in maintaining living standards •The significance of the Global Liquidity Index in understanding rapid changes in equity market behavior •The orthogonal approach to the traditional All Weather framework, focusing on credit-oriented growth measures and policymaker stances on inflation •The Forever Portfolio allocation and the importance of adjusting it using macro analysis to apply tilts based on the current macro cycle •The labor market dynamics reflecting a bifurcation due to the lag in the dispersion of the $5 trillion capital injection into the economy •The potential impact of US fiscal deficits on nominal growth over the next decade, influenced by demographics, private sector leverage, and productivity growth

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Like virtually all segments of the investment industry, the financial advisory business has undergone significant shifts over the past two decades. Gone are the days where a pasteurized, assembly-line approach with catchy branding is enough for a thriving enterprise. In the digital age, investors – like everyone else – want authenticity. They seek a personal touch. They yearn for a real connection. Alex Chalekian (founder and CEO of Lake Avenue Financial) lives by these principles. In our conversation, we explored:

• His journey: from studying to become an accountant, to investment entrepreneur
• Allowing others to learn from your mistakes and trying to extricate one’s ego
• Understanding the unique skill set you and your team members bring to the table
• The importance of proper communication: staying true to your message while navigating the regulatory landscape
• The appropriate digital forums and the difference between them
• Building and giving back to your community

Alex also shared some of the investment themes and new projects his team is excited about, and there was even time for a brief discussion on the hottest investment topic of the day – Bitcoin and the world of crypto.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this conversation, the ReSolve team is joined by Joe Kelly from Campbell and Company to delve into the world of quantitative investing, managed futures, and derivatives trading. They explore a wide range of topics, including:

Topics Discussed

• The history and evolution of the hedge fund industry and the growth of systematic investing

• The role of derivatives traders in providing liquidity to executives and the creation of a startup to provide liquidity for tech employees

• The dynamics of quantitative investing, the importance of systemizing fundamental ideas, and the challenges of explaining complex financial concepts to a non-technical audience

• The development and implementation of different models and strategies in quantitative investing, including momentum, quant macro, and short-term

• The performance of different strategies during various market conditions and the importance of adaptability

• The challenges of scaling in the systematic investing space and the advantages of focusing on a core universe of markets

• The trade-off between diversification and control in portfolio construction

• The importance of risk management in maintaining a consistent investor experience and the strategies used to manage risk in systematic investing

Conclusion

This conversation is a must-listen for anyone interested in quantitative investing, managed futures, and derivatives trading. It provides valuable insights into the intricacies of these fields, the strategies used by successful investors, and the importance of risk management in ensuring a consistent investor experience.

It was our great pleasure to welcome back Cem Karsan (also known as @jam_croissant on Twitter), Founder and Sr. Managing Partner at Kai Volatility Advisors. This deeply insightful conversation included topics such as:

• A recap of the last few months in equity markets
• Volume-weighted time and why seasonality matters more than most people know
• The acceleration of gamma, vanna and charm – a dangerous time to be short equities
• Dealer positioning as a major gravitational force in markets, often overlooked
• The ‘game of chicken’ played between speculators, hedgers and market makers
• Less ‘put hedging’ begets the currently very low skew observed
• Why the first and last two weeks of a year are so important
• The large impact of retail speculative activity and challenges to market makers
• Households still sitting on very large excess savings, which is often making its way into equity markets
• Buy the dip – investors’ conditioning over the last 40 years
• The risk of another lost decade for equity investors
• Millennials vs Boomers – a generational tussle
• Why the American dream has become increasingly unattainable to most
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Meketa’s Jason J. Josephiac, Senior Vice President / Research Consultant, and Ryan Lobdell, Managing Principal / Consultant, joined Adam and Rod to discuss their new white paper. 

They discuss key strategies and insights for managing risk and allocating assets in today's challenging investment environment, covering a wide range of topics, such as: • The importance of comprehensive risk management and portfolio allocation strategies in diversifying investments • Innovative Investment approaches and trends in risk mitigation, particularly as they relate to endowment and LDI models • Balancing risk and return in investment portfolios through diversification and manager selection • Asset allocation techniques for maximizing returns while maintaining liquidity and capital efficiency • Manager selection and risk mitigation strategies in diverse investment environments, highlighting leverage and portable alpha • Optimizing the selection and allocation of private investments to achieve a more efficient and effective portfolio • Diversification and risk mitigation strategies for endowment portfolios, focusing on achieving a balanced allocation • Navigating inflation, risk management, and alternative investment strategies in 2021-2022 with insights from experienced consultants • Creating balanced portfolios and implementing effective risk management strategies, featuring diverse investment approaches • The role of real estate, private markets, and evolving asset allocation ideas in navigating economic uncertainties This comprehensive resource is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of risk management and asset allocation in today's challenging investment landscape. Get expert insights on diversification, portfolio management, manager selection, and risk mitigation strategies to optimize your investment outcomes.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Adam and Rodrigo had the opportunity to chat with engineer and business owner Alonso Gonzalez about his upcoming book, and in particular his research on the transition from a dirty, inefficient fossil fuel economy predicated on scarce energy to a new energy economy founded on effectively infinite, distributed clean energy from the sun.

Alonso shared a presentation that introduced a variety of novel concepts and assertions that makes a compelling case for a complete overhaul of earth’s energy sources and infrastructure, much of which will be quite noticeable and impactful within the next five to seven years. Topics covered include:

• Impacts of the exponential age of knowledge
• Megatrends of energy abundance and digitization
• Uncertainty as the source of anxiety
• From linear to exponential growth and how the past is no longer useful in understanding the future
• Difference between innovation and disruption and the phases and timeline of disruption
• Understanding general terms about energy
• Understanding current energy production and consumption 
• Visualizing a chronological road map of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the near future
• Consequences of energy abundance

We hope you enjoy our conversation with Alonso Gonzalez!

Hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team delves deep into the challenges and emotional rollercoaster associated with trend following amid an uncertain market environment. They discuss an array of topics, including: 

• The impact of Jerome Powell's recent statement on interest rates and its implications for market participants 

• The role of central bank policies on systematic investment strategies 

• The lack of clear trends, economic trajectories, and market signals in today's financial landscape

 • The importance of maintaining small positions and staying prudent in turbulent times 

• Potential shifts in the market and what investors should watch for 

• The role of investor psychology in trend following and how to manage emotions during market turbulence 

• The importance of diversification and its benefits in navigating uncertain markets 

• The effects of market noise on trend following strategies and how to filter relevant information 

• The potential benefits and risks of leveraging systematic signals in the current market environment 

• The role of risk management and position sizing in trend following strategies 

• The impact of behavioral biases on decision-making and portfolio management 

• The team's thoughts on future trends and potential market opportunities

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in trend following, market volatility, and the challenges of investing in today's uncertain environment, providing valuable insights and strategies to navigate these complex markets.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, Adam, Rod, Mike and Richard review the topics covered in the ReSolve Masterclass podcast series and offer context and updates in response to the 2022 investment experience. Specifically, they cover:

• Why asset allocation is more important than security selection

• How diversifying globally can help to reduce risk

• How to triangulate on the outcome of asset classes by drawing from multiple perspectives and sources                     of information

• How to think about long-lived assets and how that changes your mindset when you're thinking about investments

• How to steward long-lived wealth and make decisions based on preparation rather than prediction

• How to balance and rebalance a portfolio

• How to think about alpha and tail protection

• How to put it all together in an investment framework

• How to analyze investment performance over different economic cycles and regimes

• How to use a systematic process to select the group of assets and the weights of those assets and how often to rebalance them in a portfolio

• How to use systematic investing to analyze investment performance over many decades and different economic cycles and regimes

·       And much more…

This update of the ReSolve Masterclass series is essential listening for anyone who wondered how the concepts and methods held up in an inflationary environment and is curious about what to expect going forward.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority

This week we had the pleasure of hosting Mark Yaxley, founding partner of Strategic Wealth Preservation, which specializes in the acquisition and storage of precious metals for investors around the world. He also brought his team member Philip Zappacosta to the conversation, which covered topics that included:

• Mark’s journey through the commodity space, before founding SWP
• The reasons that drive investors to own physical precious metals
• Different wealth objectives – creation vs growth vs preservation
• Property rights and jurisdiction considerations
• Understanding the role gold has played throughout history
• Watching the behavior of central banks
• Why loyalty to an asset-class doesn’t always stem from being “bitten by a bug”
• Why gold should be considered true money
• The role of other precious metals in portfolios
• The densest precious metal that you probably never heard of
• Silver – hundreds of industrial applications, less attractive in Asia and Europe and likely the most underpriced today
• Bar sizes, purity, utilities and different premiums
• The importance of holding smaller bars for liquidity – fractional ownership in the physical space
• Why gold hasn’t performed as expected in a year of high inflation
• When to invest in futures, ETFs or miners vs outright physical metals

Thank you for watching and listening. Happy holidays, see you in January.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to discuss the importance of macro indicators and strategies for navigating uncertain times in the financial markets. He covers a vast array of topics, including: • The role of macro indicators in understanding market cycles and making informed investment decisions • The Weather model as a risk management tool, focusing on 10 principal components of macro • The impact of institutional investors on Bitcoin's future and the potential for significant value increase • The complexities of the dollar outlook and the factors influencing its performance • The rising probability of a risk-off event and the importance of monitoring cross asset correction risk indicators • The challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and the implications for the bond market and employment mandate This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macro indicators, market cycles, and strategies for navigating uncertain financial times. Gain valuable insights and tactics to better understand the complexities of the financial landscape and make well-informed investment decisions.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Adam and Pierre focus their discussion on diversification as a combination of "diversity" and "balance". Diversity is about holding investments that are designed to thrive in very different market environments, and for different reasons. Balance has the objective of ensuring that investments are all able to express their unique personalities.

Risk parity is the ultimate expression of diversification. Sadly, many investors are misguided about the concept, and focus on the wrong things. We drill to the heart of the idea and illuminate why a risk parity portfolio should be the starting place for most investors.

What additional Sleeves can we add to maximize diversity?

We discuss:

• Style premia, factors, smart beta – the benefits and risks
• Efficient negative Sharpe ratios
• Redemptions and “noise traders”
• Larry Swedroe and anomalies
• Value characteristics and correlations
• Flows and Arbitrage opportunities

This week we had the pleasure of welcoming Jeff Snider (Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments) and Emil Kalinowski (enterprising investor, author and host of both a talk radio show and a podcast). Together, they co-host Eurodollar University podcast and shed light on the complexities of the global monetary system. Our conversation included:

• Back to basics – how the global currency and monetary systems actually work
• The origins of the Eurodollar system
• Triffin’s Paradox and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System
• Interest rate targeting as a form of mass psychosis for capital markets
• How banking reserves interact with the Eurodollar system
• Different types of money – commodity-backed, high-powered and credit
• Treasuries as the main form of balance sheet ballast for private investors
• A different take on the Great Financial Crisis – a stampede towards prime collateral at all costs
• Why central banks would compete to buy assets that are already scarce and in high demand
• The true impacts of quantitative easing and why it’s ineffective in reducing interest rates
• The importance of sentiment and why the main role of central banks is theatrical
• Lacking the tools to unclog the system
• How even China got caught in the ‘Eurodollar System Vortex’
• Vast swathes of the real economy have been deprived of credit since 2008
• REPO markets, unwilling primary dealers and backwards elasticity
• Rehypothecation of collateral and other fundamental problems
• Creation and intermediation of money should be done by separate institutions
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Before you begin, we highly recommend that you first watch this short video, which serves as a  foreword and sets the table for this episode.

After enjoying many years of immense popularity, factor investing (also known as alternative risk premia or smart beta) is suffering from significant underperformance, both across asset-classes and especially within security selection. While some factors have fared worse than others, there’s no doubt that the space as a whole is enduring an intense and prolonged winter. The team at ReSolve has been thinking deeply about this theme for the past two years, and this episode expands on the framework we have developed to understand the current environment for factors – and for the generation of sustainable alpha more broadly. Topics include:

• The origins of factor investing and why they used to work
• The adoption curve – similarities and differences between investment edges and new technologies
• Reflexivity and the “hard problem of investing”
• Value investing – why the most intuitive risk premium has suffered the most
• How changes in markets’ microstructures and the macroeconomic backdrop affect these dynamics

We also offer ideas on how investors might seek sustainable edges going forward and how to position their portfolios to this new reality. This is an ongoing and open-ended discussion, and we certainly welcome your thoughts and feedback.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Fred Pye, Founder of 3iQ Digital Assets, to discuss the rapidly evolving landscape of digital assets and blockchain technology. They delve into various topics, including the rise of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the future of the digital asset space.

Topics Discussed

•The transition of the financial world towards digital assets and the

implications of blockchain technology

•The role and impact of intermediaries such as Coinbase and FTX in the digital

asset space

•The journey and development of 3iQ Digital Assets over the past nine years

•The potential of blockchain technology in tracking global trade and reducing

transaction costs

•The future of bond and equity trading on the blockchain

•The regulatory challenges and developments in the digital asset space

•The difference between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets

•The potential growth and opportunities in the digital asset space for investors

•The importance of understanding and navigating the risks in the digital asset

space

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of digital assets,

blockchain technology, and the potential opportunities and challenges in this

rapidly evolving space. Fred Pye provides valuable insights and strategies to

navigate the digital asset landscape, offering a glimpse into the future of

finance and investment.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*.

“There are two types of truths – one that can be derived from first principles, and another that emerges from a common set of beliefs or a shared narrative.”

It was our great pleasure to speak this week with Demetri Kofinas, host of the popular Hidden Forces podcast. We have been keen listeners to Hidden Forces for some time and have admired Demetri’s ability to dive deep into topics as diverse as epistemology, philosophy, global macro and digital assets, to name just a few. Our conversation included:

• Demetri’s background in media and journey to establishing Hidden Forces
• Disillusionment after the Great Financial Crisis and conspiracy rabbit holes
• Is the fracturing US political system beyond repair?
• The Trump Phenomenon – cause, symptom or catalyst?
• Hyperrealism, information bubbles and the struggle to find common ground
• Fiat news and narrative wars
• Defining truth – the trouble with epistemology
• Digital assets, financial nihilism and generational divide
• US, China and Russia – the geopolitical backdrop

Demetri also walked us through his process for generating ideas for episodes and cited memorable guests that have helped shape his understanding on many of the subjects we touched upon. It was a truly fascinating conversation and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

The year that saw the fastest decline, followed by the steepest recovery in market history has left one topic top of mind for most investors – volatility. Though down from its eye-watering spike in the first quarter, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has remained significantly higher than in previous years, and not without good reason. The ongoing pandemic, a bifurcated and fragile economic recovery, the most polarized US presidential election in living memory, continued geopolitical saber-rattling between China and the US, and the list goes on…

We had the pleasure of hosting one of the foremost volatility experts in the industry – Wayne Himelsein (President and CIO of Logica Advisors) – for a deeply insightful conversation that covered:

• His background in the industry, and how he met and partnered with Mike Green
• Why “absolute” doesn’t mean steady returns – the lumpy nature of positive convexity
• Why Logica loves gamma and how to “scalp” it
• Unknown unknowns, unrealized vol and protecting against events that are by definition, outside of your sample distribution
• The difficulty in sizing a long-volatility strategy within a broader portfolio

Wayne also delved into his investment process in some detail, including how Logica measures and adapts to market phase-shifts. You should probably just stop what you’re doing and press play.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this discussion, the ReSolve team is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, financial analyst, to discuss the current state of the economy, the impact of Biden's stimulus, and the intricacies of investing in the current financial landscape. They delve into a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the financial markets.

Topics Discussed

• The impact of Biden's stimulus on the economy and how it has helped the economic indicators pick up again

• The current state of growth, inflation, and the central bank reaction function

• The potential impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy and the concept of ‘macro lags’

• The influence of interest rates on the economy and the different scenarios that can occur

• The current state of the housing and labor markets in response to rising rates

• The interpretation of the recent US GDP print and the consensus on future growth

• The importance of surprising markets and investing in assets that benefit from this surprise

• The concept of a 'Forever Portfolio' and how to achieve it using ETFs

• The importance of sizing in portfolio construction and how to balance attackers and defenders

• The role of commodities and the Dollar in a diversified portfolio

• The concept of allocating for diversity and the importance of tracking error in portfolio management

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the current state of the economy, the impact of fiscal policies, and the strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape. Alfonso Peccatiello provides valuable insights into the intricacies of investing and portfolio construction, making it an enlightening discussion for both new and seasoned investors.

This is "ReSolve Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by  Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*.

 “A year ago, digital assets were a fringe asset class, the mere mention of which could spell career risk. Now, the career risk is likely if you completely ignore the space.”

Global markets are evolving at a blinding pace, and investors often find themselves in a race to catch up with what are sometimes truly tectonic shifts. Nowhere is this more emblematic than in the digital assets realm. We had the pleasure of once again hosting Tyrone Ross Jr, along with his new business partner Eric Ervin – founders of Onramp Invest – for a fascinating conversation that covered:

• A ‘meeting of minds’ that resulted in Onramp Invest
• The fast and furious migration of digital assets into the common zeitgeist
• Trying to seamlessly integrate Onramp Invest into advisors’ workflow – ease of access is crucial
• Onramp Academy – filling the education vacuum and establishing a foundation for conversations
• Integrating traditional finance with the crypto world
• The difference between digital assets and digital currencies
• One third of the S&P500’s market cap is represented by financial services – the size of the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) Pie
• The importance of properly anchored risk expectations for a highly volatile and emerging asset class

The discussion also included frameworks for understanding both the value of digital assets (think network effects) and their possible place in portfolios (where rebalancing is of paramount importance). Eric and Tyrone shared their screen to walk us through their portal and some of the very useful tools they’ve created for investors.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

Following our first conversation with David Fauchier (Portfolio Manager at Nickel Digital Asset Management), he insisted that we had to speak with Thomas Braziel, Founder and CIO of 507 Capital, who he claimed was one of the most interesting and independently-minded investors he had met in the digital asset space. With David as co-host, our awesome conversation with Thomas covered topics such as:

• Why almost all his stories begin with a bankruptcy
• Opportunities that don’t scale tend to offer the juiciest returns
• The reason some of these trades work is precisely because they are not scalable
• His perspective on the Mt. Gox debacle and why he has been buying claims on it for years
• Claims investing – why many distressed assets fly under the radar of most allocators
• His unique investment style – if Soros and Buffet had an ‘investment love child’
• Different models for claims investing – from complex factoring to ‘loon shot buccaneering’
• Getting along with all the players in the space can be a form of alpha

We went deep into the inner workings of the space, including how different countries treat personal liabilities in bankruptcies, the contrasts between English Common Law and the US legal system, and what it means to go ‘forum shopping’. Yet another highly entertaining and educational episode and we hope you enjoy it.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of the book No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. They delve into a variety of topics, including the power of diversification, the importance of understanding financial stress, and the current state of global financial markets.

Topics Discussed

• Jared Dillian's perspective on the current macro views on monetary policy, hard assets, and other financial matters

• The concept of financial stress and how to minimize it, focusing on debt and risk

• The importance of time and rational decision-making in buying a house

• A discussion on the current state of advice in the financial industry

• The 'Awesome Portfolio' - a diversification strategy that includes stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate

• The role of gold in a diversified portfolio and its comparison to Dennis Rodman's role in a basketball team

• The potential future of inflation and its impact on the global economy

• An exploration of emerging markets, with a focus on India and Argentina

• A discussion on potential future challenges in the financial market, including the possibility of high interest rates

This episode offers valuable insights into financial stress, diversification strategies, and the future of global financial markets. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the financial world and gaining strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape.

Our guest this week was Mark Yusko, founder, chief investment officer and managing director of Morgan Creek Capital Management. With deep experience in both digital assets and traditional finance, Mark took us on a rollercoaster as we dissected the recent turmoil affecting the ‘crypto-verse’. Topics included:

• A post-mortem of the FTX debacle – an evolving situation with many missing pieces
• The sequence of events that led to the debacle
• Why Mark passed on the opportunity to invest… three times
• Useful idiots? Conspiracy theories versus actual conspiracies
• You can’t ban a decentralized system, but you ‘assassinate its character’
• The due diligence failure of high-profile capital allocators
• Fiduciary responsibility gone awry
• Parallels with other frauds and characters
• An analogy between digital assets and the Eurodollar system
• Bitcoin as the base layer of a future monetary system
• Displacing trust with truth
• Innovation – why timing is key
• Exciting ventures and projects for the coming years
• With every investment we get richer or wiser… never both
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Ever lower interest rates and debt-fueled growth have been the major driving force for asset price appreciation over the last four decades. Many have now come to believe that the system is close to a breaking point, teetering at the edge due to a virtually unpayable debt overhang that has created multiple asset bubbles across the world. To make sense of the current macroeconomic backdrop and where we might go from here, we had the pleasure of hosting Diego Parrilla (Managing Partner at Quadriga Asset Managers). Topics included:

• His previous life as an energy analyst and his thesis on The Energy World is Flat
• Bubbles and Anti-Bubbles
• Central banks, monetary expansion and inflation – how to boil a frog
• False diversification, correlations breaking down and constructing true balance
• Soccer teams can’t depend on 11 strikers – how his strategy creates positive convexity to become an effective goalie for a diversified portfolio

His concerns over inflationary pressures in the coming years and his asset allocation approach reminded us of our own Risk Parity framework. While the topic proved initially contentious, we eventually found common ground in the principles that will help drive positive outcomes for investors in the coming years.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this informative episode, we dive deep into a conversation with Chris Kennedy from Bridge Alternatives about his career, investment strategies, and perspectives on managed futures. We take a detailed look at model complexity, the necessity of balance in trading, the impact of trend intimacy, and the challenges of creating efficient investment reporting methods. We also talk about the exciting possibilities of artificial intelligence in trading and the unique attributes of the commodity space. Learn about the compelling world of investment from an expert who has been integral to its development.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

How can we manage for scenarios when Liquidity evaporates?

We discuss:

• The mechanics of a Liquidity Shock
• The Fed and the Long Volatility Gap
• Diversification, Tail Hedge Protection and Theta Bleed
• Dennis Rodman and the Long Vol Trade
• Yield, Growth and Inflation

You can’t read, watch or listen to Rob Carver for any length of time without recognizing that he has done a lot of thinking about the problem of uncertainty. Traders will connect with Rob’s story of experiencing a large and unexpected loss (is there another kind?) that led him to question whether his models were in sync with the current market environment.

The experience contained a silver lining, as it prompted Rob to formalize an approach for analyzing what to expect from strategies in different market environments. Rob shared his thinking and his findings, which many listeners might find quite surprising.

Rob has thought more deeply than most about how to design portfolios that are most likely to perform out of sample. We discuss how Rob thinks about the construction of strategic policy portfolios but we also dive deep into quantitative strategy design. I was especially fascinated to discuss Rob’s recent presentation on the “Three Judases” that cause many systematic strategies to fail in live trading.

Rob is an open book and generously distills mission critical wisdom from decades of trading into digestible nuggets that will add value for almost any investor.

In this episode, Alfonso Peccatiello, a renowned macro investor, joins the ReSolve team to delve into the macro end game, the impact of leverage on the financial system, and the potential paths forward. They also discuss the role of politicians in managing fiscal interventions and the increasing volatility in the macro environment.

Topics Discussed

• The concept of the macro end game and the unsustainability of the current financial system

• The role of leverage in offsetting dwindling structural growth and its implications for the global economy

• The impact of central banks' decisions to stimulate economic growth by lowering interest rates

• The wealth illusion effect and its implications on the U.S. economy

• The potential paths forward considering the high levels of debt and low interest rates

• The shift from anti-cyclical to pro-cyclical use of fiscal policy by politicians

• The need for a global macro framework in asset allocation considering the current high-leverage, high-interest rate environment

• The launch of Alfonso's global macro hedge fund and its strategy to navigate the increasing macro volatility

This episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to understand the complexities of the global financial system, the role of leverage and fiscal policy, and strategies to navigate the increasing macro volatility. Alfonso's insights provide valuable strategies for navigating the uncertain financial landscape and understanding the potential paths forward.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is GestaltU from ReSolve Asset Management where we debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

The Crypto space is gaining more interest every day. David Fauchier is a Portfolio Manager and allocator at Nickel Digital Asset Management, with eight years of experience in the digital asset space. Prior to joining Nickel, David was CIO of Cambrial Capital, a London based fund of funds, which specialized in sourcing and selecting market neutral managers in the digital asset space. He also sits on the Advisory Board of Global Digital Finance, an industry membership body engaging policy makers and regulators to advocate for industry best practice in cryptoassets.

On this episode we discuss:

• The history of money regimes
• The cottage industry and new definition of “Market Neutral“
• Contrasting allocation criteria for digital vs traditional managers
• Fund Managers and “The Five Aces“
• Paranoid Cowboys
• The plumbing of fund management
• The three approaches to Crypto investing
• Cumulative “IQ Points“

As an addendum, we were able to debrief with David on the evening of the May 19th crypto liquidation event to hear first-hand how institutional traders experienced the event in real-time.

This was a wide-ranging conversation as David provided in depth insight into the paths taken during the current evolution of Crypto and where he feels it may lead us from here.

We hope you enjoy this informative interview.

Introduction

In this episode, we are thrilled to have Jeff Weniger, the Chief U.S. Strategist for WisdomTree ETFs, back on the show. Jeff shares his insights on a range of topics, including the 'pension wars' concept, the potential for a domino effect in global equity markets, and the role of financial engineering in shaping investment strategies.

Topics Discussed

• Discussion on the 'pension wars' concept and its potential impact on asset flows over the next several years

• Exploration of the potential domino effect in global equity markets and the implications for investment strategies

• Insight into the role of financial engineering in shaping investment strategies, with a focus on the 1980s and 1990s

• Analysis of the impact of rising natural gas prices on diversified enterprises and the broader market

• Discussion on the future of work, with a focus on the shift towards remote work and its potential implications for the labor market

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of global equity markets, the potential impact of the 'pension wars' concept, and the future of work. Jeff Weniger's insights provide valuable strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape and better understand the intricacies of investment strategies.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Join us for our inaugural episode of the “ReSolve Riffs” series where the team will go live on Youtube every Friday at 3pm over cocktails to discuss topics that are in the immediate zeitgeist of the investment world.

In this episode we cover the very heated tail protection debate. The team discusses the challenges with different types of tail protection implementations including:

• the difficulty in sourcing the right strategy
• the challenges of different fund structures,
• whether diversification alone is enough to manage tail risk and,
• the benefits of tail ensembles.

We also cover the behavioural challenges at all levels of investor sophistication that make it so difficult to stick with tail protection as a strategic long-term allocation, and make a case for the type of investor that might benefit from these approaches.

We hope you enjoy the episode and that you’ll join us to riff live with the team!

Vincent Deluard is the Global Macro Strategist for StoneX, where he advises institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management. He joined us for an awesome conversation that covered topics including:

• His early life in France - expectations for public service but ‘saved’ by a scholarship to study abroad
• Bitten by the ‘quantitative bug’ from the very start of his career
• How his macro framework evolved
• Inflection points in the mega trends that have endured for the last 40 years
• Concerns with inflation pre-date the pandemic
• How COVID ‘shrank’ time
• Sample of one – why Japanese stagnation should not be extrapolated as the path for other countries
• The demographic collapse in East Asia
• Views on MMT – analytical tool more than policy framework
• The ‘incestuous’ relationship between central banks and their governments’ treasuries – from the left pocket to the right
• The ‘fairy tale land’ of the Fed’s economic projections
• Inflation as the last painful path to ‘clean up’ excess debt in the system
• US, Europe, China, and Japan – immigration dynamics and long-term prosperity
• Analogues with the post-WW2 and 1970s inflationary periods and why this time is likely different
• The risk that inflation continues to accelerate – the expectation channel
• The ‘kink’ in the Eurodollar curve
• Are there viable alternatives to the US dollar?
• How investors should rethink and broaden their asset allocation approach
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we spoke with Glen Burella, PhD, Vice President, Business Development at Abbey Capital (US). Glen previously worked on the investment research side of Abbey Capital having a background in quantum computing and a theoretical physics PHD.

Our conversation with Glen covered the following themes:

• The incredible combination of stocks and trend following
• Glen’s attraction to science and math
• A glimpse inside a PhD in quantum physics
• First days at a new quant firm
• Behind the scenes at Abbey Capital’s research division
• Launching new products and taking business risk
• Abbey Capital’s focus on multi-manager portfolios
• Why multi-manager instead of single ensemble?
• Dealing with performance fees in a multi-manager portfolio
• Segregated accounts vs trade netting
• Selecting managers and assembling portfolios
• The role of CTAs in institutional mandates
• How CTAs are an optimal solution for the coming inflation volatility regime

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

“I think there are a lot of people who feel a genuine frustration at how the system has behaved, and more importantly about how there has been this dynamic of privatized gains and socialised losses. The way I would resolve it is, you know that’s wrong. And yet it seems that the models or the tools that are being used give us no option to that. And at the core, what that’s telling you is that the models are a mistake…” Mike Green

In this podcast, Mike Green and I discussed political philosophy. Well, I fumbled around trying to articulate my frustrations, objections and questions and Mike managed to read between the lines and carry the show.

By way of background, I’ve been frustrated with a few things since the late 1990s. Most of my frustrations relate to how regulators, governments and central banks have repeatedly undermined the capitalist process of creative destruction by bailing out imprudent risk-takers.

We got a taste of this in 1998 when the Fed bailed on LTCM, and a belly-full of it in 2008 when they changed the rules on mark-to-market accounting and bailed out the banking sector. Since then central banks have supported asset prices at every turn, with increasingly direct intervention, culminating in direct purchases of corporate credit in March of 2020.

For the most part, Mike and I are frustrated about the same things: regulatory capture and a fundamental misalignment of political power and incentives, the compound effect of which is responsible for most of the forces that are tearing America apart from within.

However, where my experience has festered and soured, Mike has been diagnosing the problems and seeking solutions.

Viewed through the prism of Mike’s philosophical framework, our current situation is a function of decades of policy choices rooted in a misguided faith in Calvanist meritocracy, amplified by a fundamental misapprehension that goes to the very heart of economics.

These themes converge as we explore:

• How treating the economy as an ergodic system inevitably leads to accelerating boom-bust dynamics
• How central bank policy is largely motivated by a policy choice that has placed the social safety net in the hands of the corporate sector
• Why a policy of offering guaranteed, non-dischargeable loans to children to pay for higher education is criminally irresponsible, and creates a cascade of corrupt signaling mechanisms and mal-incentives, with obscene repercussions
• MMT, the Kalecki equation and how policy can be structured to narrow the wealth gap
• Ergodicity economics, the Farmer’s Fable, and the myth of meritocracy
• The importance of the Fourth Turning as a time to dismantle corrupt institutions and rebuild in a new image
• Disentangling skill from luck, and designing a redistribution policy that socializes windfall gains to support distributed entrepreneurship and economic dynamism
• Creating a system of accounting that recognizes non-monetary contributions and externalities
• How citizens will think about taxes in a modern monetary world, and whether taxes have only ever been paid at the business end of a gun
• Whether we can move past the Fourth Turning without a major catalyst, what that catalyst might look like, and how to look across the chasm with optimism about the future

This is a two-hour podcast, and I apologize in advance for meandering questions and the occasional non-sequitur. Still, this was a deeply important conversation, and I think it’s worth your time.

I think many of us who think about the state of the world know that something is very wrong. Many of us have worked to bury these frustrations and work within the game and the rules as they are. But at root we are mostly checked out.

Mike makes the case that the system is broken, but it can be fixed. And he expresses an incredibly coherent framework for a system of...

Jack Forehand is co-founder, partner and CIO at Validea Capital, and is also the co-host of the popular Excess Returns podcast. He joined us for an awesome conversation that included topics such as:

• The different styles for interviewing guests –preparation vs improvisation
• Factor models to decompose the returns achieved by famed managers
• Peter Lynch and the real mystery behind his track-record
• Momentum vs return chasing
• Cycles, underperformance and the benefits of combining different methodologies
• The hard problem of factor allocation based on historical returns
• A pragmatic approach that earned Jack his Twitter Handle – @practicalquant
• Education, discipline and adherence
• The incredibly long winter experienced by the value factor – is it over
• Behavioral vulnerabilities – knowing about them doesn’t dampen their effect
• Holding minimum amounts of cash – the additional tail-wind for indexed products
• Tracking error can be more painful than the risk of losses
• Why finding your like-minded tribe is a crucial component of sticking with a strategy

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

The conversation was motivated by Demetri’s tweets about MMT and fiscal policy, which stirred up quite a conflagration, and involved several primary exponents of MMT including Warren Mosler and Rohan Gray.

Adam and Demetri spent the first 35 or 40 minutes on MMT, mostly overcoming the frustration around the politicization of the concept. They discussed inequality and government’s involvement in the economy.

The conversation then shifted to what’s happening currently in the economy and to the US politically, both domestically and in terms of their projection of power internationally.

It was natural for the discussion to cover how a constant dwelling on themes around geopolitics and markets, and all the major risks, can weigh on your psyche, and how easy it is to develop pathos and obsessions, and how that can sometimes impact your personal life.

Demetri was kind enough to share his experience with brain cancer and how that was so transformative for him and how that translates to his outlook on life and his ability to see past some of the major issues that we constantly think about, and focus on some of the amazing things in our lives.

Hosted by Adam Butler of ReSolve Global*

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Despite the common understanding – and ubiquitous disclaimers – that past performance is not indicative of future returns, it is well documented that performance chasing can be almost considered a fundamental law of capital allocation among institutional and retail investors alike. It is also an open secret in the industry that well-connected managers are much more likely to receive institutional allocations than obscure ones.

To discuss and shed some light on a recent whitepaper that explores these topics, we invited our good friend Brian Portnoy to bring his vast experience as a hedge fund analyst and allocator to bear. Throughout the conversation we cover:

• How to determine whether a manager has skill
• The evolution of alpha through time
• Many ways of defining alpha
• The role played by familiarity bias
• Principal-agent problem in capital allocation

It was a far reaching discussion with many layers, and once again much improved by the many questions and comments we received throughout the live stream. Keep ‘em coming!

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this episode, PJ Pierre, a leading voice in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), joins the ReSolve team for a deep dive into the complexities and implications of MMT. The conversation explores the role of government in fiscal policy, the impact of deficit spending, and the potential consequences of MMT on the economy.

Topics Discussed

• The discussion begins with an examination of the conventional belief that government must first collect taxes before spending, and how this view influences perceptions of government solvency and private investment.

• The conversation then shifts to the sequence of government spending and taxation, and the implications of a floating exchange system.

• PJ Pierre provides an explanation of how the government can issue currency and the potential consequences, such as inflation or a collapse of the currency.

• The role of the banking system within the MMT framework is also discussed, highlighting the complexity of this economic model.

• The conversation delves into the concept of fiscal dominance and the potential for the Federal Reserve to lose its monetary policy tool for regulation.

• The episode concludes with a discussion on the impact of inflation and the role of demographics in economic demand.

This episode offers a comprehensive exploration of Modern Monetary Theory, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the potential implications of MMT on fiscal policy and the economy. PJ Pierre's expertise provides a nuanced perspective on this complex economic model, making this episode a must-listen for those interested in economic theory and policy.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate

the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike

Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of

ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered

with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor

and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the

National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered

person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this riveting discussion, we delve into the complexities of the global financial landscape and the potential pitfalls of traditional monetary systems with Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. We explore the implications of structural inflation, the rise of new monetary technologies like Bitcoin and stablecoins, and the potential future scenarios for developed and emerging economies.

Topics Discussed

• Discussion on the structural inflation in countries like Egypt and Argentina, and the impact on their currencies

• Examination of the role of Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other new technologies in creating a global marketplace for money

• Exploration of the potential for money to move across jurisdictions, bypassing traditional banking systems

• Insight into the financial firewalls and the increasing porosity due to technologies like Bitcoin

• Analysis of the potential problems major currencies like the dollar, euro, and yen might face due to increasing public debt

• Discussion on the bubbles and cycles associated with monetary technologies

• Consideration of the potential risks and benefits of Bitcoin, including the concentration of wealth and the potential for it to act as a hedge against currency devaluation

• Examination of the potential future scenarios for developed and emerging economies in the face of a potential debt and monetary crisis

• Discussion on the potential impact of a fiscal reckoning on the asset bubble and consumer spending in developed economies

• Insight into potential strategies for managing the risks associated with a potential fiscal reckoning, including investment in bonds, equities, and Bitcoin

This episode offers a deep dive into the intricacies of the global financial landscape, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the potential future scenarios for our monetary systems. It's a must-listen for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of the financial world and understand why traditional money might be losing its value.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

For the quant community, it was arguably the most awaited book of 2019. Finally, a peek behind the curtains into the most successful hedge fund manager in history.

The +66% average (gross) returns that Jim Simons and his army of data scientists produced over the last 17 years in their Medallion fund captured the imagination of investors across the globe and their obsessive secrecy just added to the aura of mystique. After much resistance from the protagonists (not least of which Simons himself), our guest today was able to pierce that bubble and tell the story of Renaissance Technologies.

A 20 year veteran of The Wall Street Journal, Gregory Zuckerman has authored best sellers such as "The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters", "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History", and co-authored the award-winning "Rising Above: How 11 Athletes Overcame Challenges in their Youth to Become Stars" with his two sons.

Our 30-minute conversation with Zuckerman tracks a different course from his recent interviews, focusing on how the journey to write this book has changed his understanding of the asset management industry and how his relationship with some of the characters has evolved.

But most importantly, we discuss a topic that has been at the core of ReSolve's philosophy from the early years: the idea of harvesting sustainable edges from group relationships as opposed to individual trades or securities. Waste no time and dive right into the latest episode of Gestalt University.

Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap.

We discuss:

• Improving predictions by regularly updating data
• The Brier Score and why it really matters
• Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
• The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative

Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

This episode of Gestalt University could not be timelier, having been recorded two weeks prior to the current market correction that began in late February 2020. The discussion of fragile versus robust approaches is especially important given how recent volatility has led simpler tactical strategies to signal a complete shift away from equities and towards cash. This in turn has left practitioners second-guessing the wisdom of their indicators and hesitant to pull the trigger.

For this fascinating conversation we bring none other than Corey Hoffstein of Newfound Research. Corey has lived by the “risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed” dictum, which has guided the core of his investment philosophy across three axes of diversification – sources of risk, process and time.  Our similar thinking (including recent warnings of the dangers involving simple DIY tactical heuristics) led to an extensive research collaboration and ultimately to co-launch the Newfound / ReSolve Robust Equity Momentum Index (following requests from our FinTwit brethren).

Our discussion with Corey goes deep into the benefits of building strategies based on Ensemble Methods while considering the impacts of cost, the role of timing and luck, and ways to increase one’s confidence in a back-test. We also examine the behavioral benefits of strategy execution using an array of signals as opposed to binary approaches. A plateful for investors of all stripes, especially practitioners.

Social media has democratized access to media, providing Wealth and Asset Managers with an unprecedented opportunity to capture investor mindshare via digital marketing.

Tune in and listen as Mike Philbrick, ReSolve’s President hosts an epic digital marketing roundtable discussion with experts in the field of digital marketing for Asset and Wealth Managers – Chadd Weston and Simon Jalbert from Traction House, as well as veteran Wealth Management professional Justin Castelli from RLS Wealth Management.

Together we go deep to tackle the application of digital marketing as it relates to Wealth and Asset Management businesses covering the following items and MORE!

• How the network effect informs how to most effectively market to your client and prospects.
• How to zero-in on the highest impact content
• How to cross-purpose your content and find the best platforms for distribution
• How to find your tribe and hone your niche market with the right mix of marketing and selling
• The changing paradigm of “know-like-and-trust” in a digital economy.

You will not want to miss this episode. Whether you’re a veteran marketer or just starting the process, this podcast provides unprecedented access to some exceptional minds in the realm of digital marketing for Wealth and Asset Managers with real boots-on-the-ground experience.

Michael Harris started trading rates and derivatives 30 years ago. He is the Founder of Price Action Lab and the developer of the first commercial software for identifying parameter-less patterns in price action 20 years ago. In the past 10 years he has worked on the development of DLPAL, which is a software program designed to identify short-term anomalies in market data for use with fixed and machine learning models.

In this wide ranging interview we discuss:

• Back testing and generating trading signals on an Atari Console
• Loss Compression and Forecasting
• Data Mining – microfeatures, micropatterns and trend following
• The hit rate, payoff ratio, profit factor and the Profitability Rule
• Data Mining Bias and Data Snooping
• The Seven Weekly Strategies
• The direction of probability

The conversation was interesting and enlightening as Michael provided new insights into emerging financial technologies. We hope you enjoy it. Thank you for listening.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

It is, without a doubt, the most logical starting point for any portfolio that seeks both global diversity and risk balance. Preparation before prediction. First, do no harm. Yet there is a wide range of ways to structure and deploy Risk Parity – as always, the devil is in the details (for a deeper dive check out our recent whitepaper). We had the pleasure of speaking with Alex Shahidi and Damien Bisserier (co-founders of Evoke Wealth and ARIS Consulting), creators of the popular RPAR ETF, on topics that included:

• Their history and journey before joining forces
• Multiple definitions and iterations of Risk Parity
• The consistent mispricing of global diversification benefits (why Risk Parity works)
• Why the investment industry is wired to overweight prediction and underweight preparation
• Behavioral hurdles and the real struggle with FOMO

Of course, it wouldn’t be a true Risk Parity debate without addressing the role of bonds in the current zero-bound environment and the importance of duration adjustments on bond holdings, as well as the role of currencies and different ways of obtaining exposure to commodities. A true Risk Parity primer.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This episode features Ben Hunt, founder of Second Foundation Partners, which hosts the Epsilon Theory content portal.

I reached out to Ben because I’d been starting to feel myself shifting gears on my feelings and perceptions around the ongoing COVID pandemic, and I knew Ben would be able to help put things in proper perspective.

For most of the past 18 months or so I have been firmly in support of most of the measures taken by governments to manage the health impacts of the virus. We adhered strictly to lockdown guidelines, supported border closures, followed protocols, and received vaccines and boosters as soon as they were available.

But over the past few weeks I’d felt myself becoming frustrated with the lack of progress on the policy front. After all, residents of developed countries have had access to highly effective vaccines for almost 9 months. Every resident has had ample opportunity to get fully vaccinated at no financial cost, and residents of many countries have had plenty of time to get free booster shots.

Yet still, here we are. Everyone I talk to seems to be much more terrified of testing positive than of actually getting the virus. Everyone wants to travel, or go back to university, or see family – live a fulfilling life with the people we care about! – but they’re petrified about facing trip cancelations, quarantines, and/or huge expenses from a positive COVID test.

Isn’t the world upside down when most people are more afraid of running afoul the regulations in place to prevent a danger, than they are of the danger itself!

These are the themes I felt I needed to cover with Ben, and we did cover most of them in our 90 minute conversation. Ben was extremely patient and generous with his time, wisdom and insights. However, I admit to still feeling like several critical points went unresolved. This gap was definitely my fault, and not Ben’s. It just took me a few days of further ruminating to see the holes I wanted to fill.

I think this is an important and timely conversation with someone who understand the topic from top to bottom, and who sees the issues with clear eyes, and a full heart. I hope you get as much value out of it as I did.

In this discussion, the ReSolve team is joined by David Sun, a retail investor

turned hedge fund manager with a background in engineering. David shares his

journey from options trading during grad school to launching two private

options-based hedge funds. He discusses the intricacies of options trading, the

importance of risk management, and the evolution of his investment strategies.

Topics Discussed

•David Sun's background in engineering and his transition into options trading

and hedge fund management

•The launch of David's two private options-based hedge funds and the rationale

behind having two separate funds

•The importance of risk management in options trading and how David's strategies

have evolved to minimize volatility drag

•The concept of return stacking portfolios and how it has been applied in

David's funds

•The role of diversification in enhancing portfolio performance and reducing

risk

•The potential of long volatility strategies as a diversifier and how they can

be applied in retail investing

•The impact of market changes on strategy backtesting and the importance of

continuously updating strategies to reflect current market conditions

•David's views on the future of his funds and the potential for launching a

third fund

•David's public presence and his efforts to educate retail investors through his

podcast, The Trade Busters

David Sun provides a unique perspective on options trading and hedge fund management,

drawing from his background in engineering and his experiences as a retail

investor. His insights into risk management, portfolio diversification, and

strategy development offer valuable lessons for anyone interested in the

intricacies of options trading and hedge fund management. This episode is a

must-listen for those looking to deepen their understanding of these complex

financial landscapes.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Although technology has revolutionized many aspects of our lives, there are still some industries that resist change and professionals who are certain that the old way is the right way. Some believe this applies to investment advisors. They most likely have never met Shiraz Ahmed. He is the quintessential modern advisor, with whom we had the pleasure of riffing on topics such as:

• Building and improving your career by observing your peers (and learning from their mistakes)
• Finding a niche of people that you can really connect with instead of cold calling
• The value of conveying your true self and embracing a genuine narrative
• Navigating the ambiguous compliance and regulatory environment when engaging on social media
• His expertise in US-Canadian cross-border investing

We also discussed Shiraz’s motto of paying it forward, how he lives by that rule, and what he actually means when he says an advisor needs to put his money where his mouth is.

Our guest this week was Bradley Barrie, president and CEO of Dynamic Alpha Solution, a firm that is reshaping the way US advisors think about asset allocation through their multi-dimensional framework. Our conversation covered:

• His early career and almost becoming a math teacher
• Embracing difference and uniqueness from the very beginning
• The barren landscape for alternative strategies in the 1990s
• Style drift and closet indexers
• False diversification
• Defining Multi-Dimensional Asset Allocation
• Structural diversification and pairing complimentary styles
• Outsourced CIO tailored for financial advisors
• Recognizing the importance of investor psychology
• Smoothing out the path for portfolios as the ultimate objective
• The three Ps of qualitative analysis
• Sharpe vs Sortino
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this episode, our guest Jerry Parker, founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital, a global systematic trend-following investment manager, shares his insights on:

• His journey from being a student of legendary trader Richard Dennis to running his own trend-following fund
• The importance of sticking to a disciplined process despite market noise
• Why trend following is the ultimate solution for diversifying portfolios
• How to navigate compliance hurdles and get exposure to trend following strategies
• The potential benefits of maximizing convexity in a portfolio
• How to create the perfect standalone portfolio that doesn't rely on passive indexes
• The role of education versus pain and reward in motivating change and decision-making
• Jerry's approach to risk management and how it can lead to both serious strategies and potential profits
• The vast potential of ETFs in providing access to more markets
• And so much more

This is a fascinating and informative episode for anyone interested in trend following, portfolio diversification, and risk management in today's markets.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*.

“As the discount rate drives towards zero, it inflates every asset on the planet, including their correlations. Today’s dominant factor is discount rate risk.”

Fasten your seatbelt and dial down the speed on your podcast player, because you are in for an epic ride. With our good friend Corey Hoffstein (CIO of Newfound Research) as co-host, we were once again joined by one of the most interesting and thought-provoking guests we’ve had on the show: Chris Schindler (Co-founder, CEO and CIO of Castlefield Associates). This incredibly rich and nuanced conversation touched on themes that included:

• Who is “on the other side” of trades and investment strategies – persistent wealth transfers that lead to positive utility for both parties, with no “willing losers”
• Crowded and anti-crowded trades – drilling into the reflexive nature of markets
• What leads to crowding – structural and behavioral reasons, along with naturally-long players
• Why alternative risk premia (aka investment factors) have become shockingly crowded, and where investors might find blue ocean in the space
• Behavior doesn’t manifest in a vacuum – why the efficient market hypothesis is naturally at odds with human synchronization
• Alpha in traditional investments implies being early and/or different
• Social media, riot theory and the emergent phenomenon of crowds
• The ultimate CIO’s dilemma – where do we go from here?
• The moral hazard trade – governments, central banks, and self-fulfilling prophecies
• A basket of call options is always preferable to a call option on a basket

We also covered some of the underlying reasons for market synchronization, how many steps ahead of the crowds are likely to lead to profitable trades, and much more. This episode contains more nuggets of wisdom than we could count and is certainly worth saving for future reference.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

In the digital age, we are all suffering from varying degrees of information overload and must lean on trusted guardians of the narrative to make sense of it all. Our good friend Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory), one of the most reliable guardians, joined us this week for a thought-provoking conversation that included:

• How he witnessed and reported on the COVID pandemic story unfolding well ahead of most people and his current efforts in helping to supply medical masks in the US
• Why mainstream media keeps getting it (mostly) wrong
• Staying true to your wolfpack and avoiding the temptation of adding too much cheese to a story – even though it might greatly amplify your reach
• Gresham’s law and how fiat news often crowds out truly important stories
• Wallstreet as a highly effective narrative machine that keeps driving investors to buy like clockwork

Ben’s alter-ego Neb took charge when describing the system as dominated by crony capitalism and ultimately broken, while his B.I.T.F.D. mantra got plenty of pushback from the South-Americans across the screen. Towards the end Ben returned and shared some very cool images from his own Narrative Machine, focusing on the stock that has dominated headlines this year.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

While the theme was the Chinese investment landscape, this episode can also be described as the Bobby Schwarz show. From his early days as a floor trader in Chicago, through his experience making movies in Hollywood, then finally founding RCM Alternatives, Bobby recounts countless memorable stories including:

• The high-octane environment of life on a trading floor, including heart and panic attacks
• Verbal exchanges with big names in Hollywood (including John McClane aka Bruce Willis) and creating a multi-factor model to gauge movie success that is used to this day
• Returning to Chicago to build a new business and adapting to an industry in constant flux
• Venturing into China, learning the culture and understanding their values
• Big risks and even bigger opportunities

The candor and quality of Bobby’s narrative produced meaningful insights and great humor, making this one of the most entertaining episodes of our Riffs to date.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this episode, we are joined by Michele Wucker, author of the international bestseller “The Gray Rhino” and the new book “You Are What You Risk”. She coined the term “gray rhino” for obvious, probable, impactful risks, which we are surprisingly likely but not condemned to neglect. The gray rhino has moved markets, influenced central banks, guided risk managers and business strategy, and made headlines as an important frame for the ignored warnings that let the Covid-19 pandemic get out of control. The metaphor was inspired by work early in her career when she sounded a warning about Argentina’s debt crisis, then reprised that warning with an early and successful argument for a pre-emptive haircut in the Greek debt crisis. She is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, speaks frequently to high-level global audiences, and is cited often in leading global media which recently have included The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and the Washington Post.

We discussed:

• Five reasons decision-makers have for not addressing problems
• Making the “devil’s advocate” more prominent in the decision-making process
• Individual biases and how they define your “risk fingerprint”
• The “risk compass” and how it can help manage client risk tolerance
• The “Glass Cliff Phenomenon” and corporate crises
• The balance of left tail and right tail risk in group/family dynamics
• Thinking less deterministically and more probabilistically to get better outcomes
• Little “hacks” to help manage risk

Michele also shared real-life anecdotes of how using these methods have helped corporations/boards and families manage risk tolerance differences. She stresses repeatedly the usefulness of knowing the “risk fingerprint” of every member of the group, leading to significantly better outcomes.

We hope you enjoy this far-reaching and entertaining discussion. 

In this episode Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo host ReSolve's Head of Quantitative Research, Andrew Butler to discuss how ReSolve employs tools from the field of machine learning to produce meaningful and practical improvements in investment outcomes. We start with Andrew's background in applied mathematics and in particular his experience applying ML tools to solve complex real-world problems in the physical sciences. It was fascinating to hear Andrew recount how he came to understand that the tools that work well to model physical systems are much less useful in a financial context. This was a consistent theme throughout the discussion. Our objective was to offer a high-level overview of the ML toolset so we started by defining what ML is and digging into three traditional classes of ML: unsupervised learning, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning. We make each method accessible with simple examples and discuss how ReSolve uses the respective techniques to improve outcomes at virtually every step in the investment process. At many points the group paused to reflect on the myriad ways in which financial markets are distinct from other problem categories. We explore why it is critical to view financial markets through the prism of ML for any statistical inference, and discuss several tools that should be handy in the toolbox of every modern financial analyst. Of critical importance, we reinforced the fact that the ML toolset is useless – if not downright dangerous – if deployed naively without the direction and support of experienced operators. Without a deep understanding of the unique properties and pitfalls of financial markets ML tools are likely to do much more harm than good to portfolios. We also discussed why the most important step – by far – in data-driven research is the validation and online learning step – the sentinel – where trader intuition and experience can amplify results by orders of magnitude. There was some debate about the role of machines and humans in finance and more broadly, and how those roles may evolve. Rodrigo held out hope for sustained human dominance in complex tasks while Adam argued that machines could be playing a much larger and positive role in society already if humans would just get out of the way! There is a lot of marketing around the field of machine learning at the moment but very little nuanced, practical wisdom. We hope you take something of practical relevance from our conversation.

When asked about his past, what Larry Swedroe really wanted was to work with the New York Yankees. That dream died when CBS sold the Yankees to George Steinbrenner on January 4th, 1973.

But another door opened at the same time that would forever change the trajectory of Larry’s life. As CBS was selling the Yankees, the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement had unleashed a maelstrom of volatility in the foreign exchange markets, which caused a great deal of trouble for US corporations with foreign operations. Corporate Treasury departments were rudderless and needed people with brand new skill sets to manage the new world order.

Larry was in the right place at the right time. He learned fast, and over the decade following the collapse of Bretton Woods he led some of the largest Treasury and FX operations in the world while managing their FX risk with completely novel instruments like currency and interest rate swaps. Then he moved on to mortgages and was one of the progenitors of the multi-trillion dollar securitized mortgage business. 

By the mid 1990s Larry was ready to retire from finance and settle into a university teaching gig. But, he was approached by a group of planners starting an RIA firm and invited to spearhead the investment side of the business. Fama and French had published their seminal paper on the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in 1993 and by 1995 David Booth had launched an asset management firm to commercialize their ideas – Dimensional Fund Advisors.

With the courage and confidence earned from cutting his teeth at the vanguard of two major financial industry innovations, Larry had the conviction to embrace the academically backed “factor” approach from the outset. Over the next couple of decades Larry would go on to write over a dozen books making the case for a disciplined, academic approach to investing. And his firm would grow into one of the largest independent advisory firms in the country.

Larry is obsessed with academic finance. We talked at length about the factor zoo and he described the process he uses to identify the factors that are most likely to continue to produce strong excess returns in the decades to come.

The low beta factor came under scrutiny with Larry expressing a healthy skepticism. He observed that low beta returns have been regime dependent with low beta outperforming when it loads on value characteristics but underperforming when it loads on growth characteristics. The low beta factor portfolio currently loads on growth characteristics. Larry prefers to own quality in value stocks and lower portfolio beta by lowering total equity exposure.

In this episode, ReSolve’s CIO Adam Butler and Larry discuss the pitfalls of single factor strategies because they often load negatively on other premia. Larry shared his story of discussing how to introduce momentum into the DFA value oriented portfolios. He describes how they conceded by holding onto value companies that had moved out of the typical value range so long as they were exhibiting positive momentum. This has been a substantial contributor to DFA’s performance in many products since it was introduced.

It is often the case that “value” strategies are short momentum stocks or quality stocks and vice versa. Larry describes ways in which thoughtful portfolio construction can lead to much more effective long-term performance.

Larry emphasized how important it is to stay up on the literature because the structure of the markets, and our understanding of them, change over time. He uses the example of “book to market” as the classic value screen, but how this metric has become less useful over time as developed economies moved from a mostly industrial base to a service orientation. Today, so much of the value of companies is in brand names and technologies, which aren’t recognized on the balance sheet. He presents a highly counterintuitive case of companies that would...

In this episode, the RAM Crew dives deep into the intricacies of monetary policy, inflation, and the impact of these factors on the global economy. They discuss the complexities of inflation, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the potential future of the financial landscape.

Topics Discussed

• Discussion on the shift in monetary policy and its implications

• Insight into the misunderstanding of inflation and its workings

• Examination of the impact of inflation on asset classes and financial markets

• Analysis of the potential increase in volatility across assets

• Discussion on the potential for more variance in inflation

• Exploration of the impact of AI on the service economy and potential for

re-acceleration of growth

• Review of historical inflationary shocks and their implications for the future

• Discussion on the potential for higher volatility in the financial markets

• Insight into the potential for strong economic growth and low unemployment

• Discussion on the risk management techniques for portfolios

• Analysis of the potential for wealth altering events in the financial markets

• Discussion on the potential for inflation shocks and the role of commodities

• Insight into the potential benefits of trend following managed futures

strategies

• Discussion on the concept of carry and its potential impact on portfolios

• Analysis of the potential benefits and risks of investing in concentrated value

ETFs

• Discussion on the potential for a hotter than expected economy over the next

year

• Insight into the potential mispricing in the financial markets

• Discussion on the potential impact of inflation on equities and bonds

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of inflation, monetary policy, and their impact on the global economy. The RAM Crew provides valuable insights and strategies for navigating the uncertain financial landscape and better understanding the intricacies of the financial markets.

This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we interview Andrew Miller, CIO of Miller Financial Management. Andrew’s passion is at the intersection of investment management and financial planning, and he has extremely novel perspectives on both domains.

We trace Andrew’s background in structured credit and alternatives and map this experience to his current framework for thinking about diversification and sources of risk and return. We also discuss how Andrew’s views on diversification have evolved over time and how he thinks about factor strategies and alternative premia, including how he applied trend-following principles to factor exposures.

Andrew spends a lot of time on engineering optimal asset location strategies and shared some compelling facts about how some fairly simple steps can improve expected returns by almost 1% per year.

 It’s rare to find someone with deep theoretical and fundamental understanding of nuanced investment topics who has found very practical ways to deliver the potential value of these strategies to clients on the ground. There’s something here for everyone!

Daruis Dale is the Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional macro-grade risk management frameworks and processes. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford CT. He joined us for jam-packed and timely conversation that included topics such as:

• Positioning for inflation volatility and the “Midas Touch”
• The Fed and accelerating the taper
• The Dynamics of the recent “Friday Smackdown”
• The missing “Guardians of the Gate”
• The implications for bonds
• Cyclical changes and secular regimes
• Declaring regimes and pricing them in
• Portfolio construction and conditional probability
• Why you don’t get paid for being too early
• Frontrunning pricing with intuition and expectations
• The Style Factor and why it’s the best predictor
• Back-testing regime ensembles
• Covariance ranking, layering and beta ranking in portfolio construction
• Selecting and weighting macro indicators
• Behavioral Economics and why being different is important
• The impact of Bitcoin on portfolios
• The effects of expensive markets relative to inflation
• Policy mistakes and corrections

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Most pension plans and other institutional investors with long-term liabilities are faced with an enormous mismatch between the return assumptions in their actuarial models and the combination of sky-high equity valuations and rock-bottom bond yields. Some have chosen to address their funding gaps by adding leverage to their portfolios. Topics of this include:

• Different types of leverage – Implicit vs explicit, recourse vs non-recourse
• Hidden leverage in private investments
• Volatility targeting – pro-cyclical vs counter-cyclical
• Leverages towards concentrated vs diversified investments and market fragility

The conversation was greatly enhanced by a series of questions from our friend Mike Green (Logica Capital) – who we hope will join us in the coming weeks. Special thanks to Mike and others that have participated with their questions.

Keep them coming and see you next Friday.

Let’s face it – Meb Faber is everywhere, and he’s built an asset management business from scratch with a very unconventional approach. I wanted to take a look back at that journey to get some perspective on the good, the bad, and the ugly along the way. Meb shared some interesting stories and surprised me with some of the lessons learned.

Meb has launched a really thoughtful and unique family of ETFs but I was interested in some of the ideas on Cambria’s shelf. He shared some other concepts that he’s excited about but that the market isn’t ready for yet, including a compelling and more tax efficient alternative to typical income strategies.

Most people are aware that Meb takes great pleasure in busting financial myths. We discuss his pet peeve at the moment – market cap weighting – and some research that he’s conducting on why investors should consider strategies that avoid over-allocating to mega-cap companies. It’s amazing how such simple strategies with intuitive explanations can be overlooked by investors for so many years. 

My favorite part of the conversation was when Meb described how his thinking had changed over time. Consistent with many of the most thoughtful professionals I’ve chatted with over the years, most of Meb’s lessons relate more to how investors behave in markets rather than the nature of markets themselves. He provides some great illustrations. 

I think you’ll enjoy some of our “off-roading” and discussions on topics he isn’t asked about very often.  Any time with Meb is time well spent and this is no exception.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Almost three decades since the very first launch, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have grown to a multi-trillion-dollar segment of the market, with more than seven thousand spread across the world. The US market is home to approximately 30 percent of them, spanning the passive/index-tracking, actively managed and thematic categories, not to mention a handful of more exoteric niches. We drew on the expertise of our friend Eric Balchunas (Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg) for an update on the current state of the ETF. We discussed:

• The hottest tickets in town – the ARK family and Cathie Wood
• Soap opera drama – why haven’t crypto ETFs been allowed yet
• Why thematic ETFs are actually a closet-momentum play
• Value as the most intuitive factor – emulating Graham’s ‘Intelligent investor’
• The Beta Vortex, how passive distorts price discovery
• Biases and the narrowing gap between institutional and retail investors
• The answer to 99 out of 100 questions in markets – blame it on the Fed

Eric also gave us the breakdown in AUM for each segment of the market, as well as his estimate for the current size of the entire passive investment complex. This was a wide-ranging and very entertaining conversation, with great input from the audience (especially from our friends Brian Portnoy and Dave Nadig – thanks guys), and we also learned there is such a thing as “conversational alpha”.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

In this conversation, the ReSolve team is joined by Bob Elliott, a prominent figure in the financial industry, to discuss monetary policy, inflation and the role of central banks. They delve into the complexities of the current economic landscape, addressing the impact of fiscal policy, wage growth, and the role of alpha in investment strategies.

• Discussion on the impact of monetary policy on inflation and the consequences of not running a sufficiently tight policy in response to economic shocks

• Insights into the inflation dynamic and the risks of long-term elevated inflation

• Analysis of the bond market's reaction to Powell's statement and the implications for long-term inflation risks

• Exploration of the role of income growth in the current economic cycle and its impact on nominal growth

• Discussion on the importance of understanding the behavioral aspects of investment strategies and the concept of balanced alphas

• Insight into the potential of alpha indexing tools and how they can be used to create more reliable investment outcomes

• Discussion on the ideal weighting of equities, bonds, commodities and alpha in an investment portfolio

• Exploration of the concept of a diversified portfolio and how it can improve investment outcomes

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of the current economic landscape, monetary policy, and investment strategies. Bob Elliott provides valuable insights into the role of central banks, the impact of fiscal policy and wage growth, and the potential of alpha in investment strategies.

This is "ReSolve's Riffs" – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

A casual observer of modern economies might be forgiven for feeling that life is pretty good. And they might reasonably credit neoclassical economic principles for facilitating what appears to have been a great leap forward in global prosperity. At the same time, we are occasionally confronted with news of looming global calamities, which are a product of the exact same policies that brought about this apparent prosperity: irreversible climate change, unprecedented global private credit, global asset bubbles to name just a few.

Our guest this week, Professor Steve Keen, has spent a lifetime demonstrating why neoclassical economics is fundamentally self-terminating because it fails to account for realities imposed by the physical world. He walks us through the root issues and describes an economic framework for sustainable growth and more even prosperity. In particular we discussed:

• The roots of the 2008 global financial crisis and how he predicted it in advance
• How the 1972 report “Limits to Growth” successfully forecast how the global economy would run headlong into resource boundary conditions
• Richard Vague’s findings that accelerating growth of private credit has presaged every major financial collapse in the past few centuries
• How the misguided work of two economists in the early 1990s has led to catastrophic policy and climate consequences
• The financialization of housing and its impact on home prices, demand for private credit, and a return to feudalism
• How to incorporate resource consumption and waste into modern economic models
• The character and potential positive impact of a modern debt jubilee

Professor Keen is not a man who minces words. Pour yourself an Irish coffee and settle in for a jarring ride.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator.

This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

In this comprehensive episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research, joins the discussion to tackle various topics surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership, monetary policy and the current economic challenges. Key themes covered include:

• Jay Powell's leadership and controversies within the Federal Reserve Board • The impact of monetary policies on Wall Street, mortgage rates and unregulated loans, with insights into Powell's motivations and challenges • The multifaceted consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and potential implications on inflation • The role of central clearing, systemic risk, and technology on the financial market • Explorations into credit easing, inflation battles, and the influence of monetary policy in the treasury market • The Fed's impact on commercial real estate, credit, and the treasury market, along with insights on housing resilience • A deep dive into inflation, quantitative tightening, and how economic indicators affect the treasury market • Discussions on Powell's experiences, interest rate considerations and the influence of fiscal policies on treasury markets and financial engineering • Assessments on data releases, regional banking challenges and wider implications of low-interest rates on the economy • The Fed's interest rate strategies, credit market signals, future of financial regulations and the overall economic outlook This information-packed episode is a must-listen for those keen on understanding the complexities of the Federal Reserve, monetary policy and the evolving economic landscape. Gain valuable insights and expert opinions on how to navigate through these challenging times.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

The ReSolve Team welcomes Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, and Jeff Weniger, a renowned financial analyst. We delve into the current state of the economy, the potential for a recession, and the role of the banking sector in these dynamics. We also discuss the influence of leading, coincidental and lagging indicators in economic cycles.

• Introduction to Eric Basmajian and Jeff Weniger, discussing their backgrounds and influences

• Discussion on the potential disparity between equity markets and recession indicators

• Exploration of Eric's economic framework and its application to current economic indicators

• Insights on the role of bank balance sheets in the economic cycle

• Discussion on the impact of the commercial real estate crisis on bank lending

• Examination of the contraction in bank credit and its implications for economic growth

• Debate on the current state of the economy and the potential for a recession

• Discussion on the role of leading, coincidental and lagging indicators in predicting economic cycles

• Insights on how different sectors of the economy may experience the impacts of a recession at different times

• Discussion on the importance of managing risk in the current economic climate

Today’s discussion provides valuable insights into the complexities of the current economic landscape and the potential for a recession. Detailed analysis from Eric Basmajian and Jeff Weniger provides a deeper understanding of the factors influencing the economy and how to navigate these challenging times.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

Over the last few years, the topic of mental health, once taboo, has been recognized as a crucial component of our general well-being. Yet depression, anxiety and other ailments of the mind remain largely a silent epidemic, and the last twelve months have been particularly hard because of the loneliness many have endured due to the lockdowns.

Our guest this week was Matt Zerker, former Portfolio Manager at ReSolve and now Founder & CEO of tethr. Our conversation included:

• Matt’s life journey struggling with depression, losing a close friend, finding a support group and ultimately landing on a path towards his true calling
• No man is island – we all yearn to belong
• ABC – always be compassionate
• Resisting, suppressing, blocking – it’s much healthier to let go
• Why men find it harder to admit they are struggling, especially in finance
• Physiological responses, emotional interpretations and feedback loops
• How to shorten the reaction times of negative responses and build new (and more positive) neural paths

We also discussed the role of psychedelics, Jason’s experience with Trading Tribe, and how to detach one’s ego from destructive narratives. This was a deeply personal conversation and a true homecoming for Matt, and we hope it can help to spread the word on the importance of mental health in our community.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day.

As US equities and bonds continue their apparently unstoppable rally, their expected return over the coming years grows vanishingly small, Especially if markets are faced with anything other than the goldilocks environment of growth, deflation and abundant liquidity that has ruled the past 12 years.

Readers of our research (as well as any student of history) will know that stocks and bonds can go through prolonged periods of synchronized underperformance, while Risk Parity can navigate virtually any form of inflationary or growth shock. But when executed properly, with periodic rebalancing, Risk Parity can benefit from a substantial tailwind, as we showed in our recent paper – Maximizing the Rebalancing Premium.

Our discussion of the rebalancing premium and its implications for investors included:

• The traditional thinking on rebalancing is likely outdated – adjusting for drift is not enough
• Defining the rebalancing premium and how it can be maximized
• The benefits of rebalancing for different implementations of Risk Parity
• Why buy-and-hold investors are paying this premium
• Risk Parity vs the ubiquitous 60/40

The debate also delved into the importance of reducing volatility drag to smooth out the path portfolios take and improve geometric returns.

Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.