Market Trends with Tracy (Saval Foodservice)
Explore every episode of Market Trends with Tracy
| Pub. Date | Title | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb 2022 | There's Good And Bad News | 00:05:13 | |
That groundhog can kiss… oh.. Never mind. Let’s look at markets. Beef: Production numbers continue to get better with 643K head harvested last week, up from 636K head the week before. I think with this increased production and Valentine’s Day being on a Monday this year, lack of demand is going push this market lower. As I said last week, I don’t think we will see lower prices before Valentine’s day but beef demand is lowest in February for the whole year. Middle meats are still holding strong and loins are moving up, but I think this complex will be moving lower in the next couple weeks. Until them, buy only what you need. Ground beef is still in overdrive followed by rounds and chucks. We should be about ready to break, but not just yet. Pork: Pork bellies continue higher closing at $161 yesterday, higher than last week’s $154. We are in a much improved position with bellies in cold storage from the end of 2021. The new reality of the higher costs at retail have made a dent in sales. I think we will see a buying opportunity later this month, but right now we are still heading higher. Overall pork production is running behind last year, we may not see much relief in pork pricing though the first half of the year. Expect strong pricing to continue. Chicken: Boneless skinless breasts continue higher still. This time of year has not seen pricing like this since 2009. While demand for breast meat continues wings are moving up too. February is always a high time for wings, this year will be no exception. On an encouraging note, the hatch rate broke 80% for the first time since April of last year. Finally. This is good news. Labor and transportation continue to challenge chicken production but available raw material is increasing. With QSR driving the breast demand, don’t expect anything to come off anytime soon. Grains: Lots going on in corn and especially soy. Let’s talk corn first, yesterday closed at $6.29 down from last week’s $6.34. Lowered expectations on the south American crops are keeping demand on US corn strong around the world. Lower than expected exports held things a bit in check so I think unless something drastic happens we are in the $6 corn world for the foreseeable future. Soy ran up this week to its highest price in six months. Biofuel demand, that bad news out of South America and higher palm oil prices all had influence on soy prices. We are in better position than we were last year, but I think we could see another run up on soy. Looking at flour and it is two different stories. Hard red wheat continues to move higher while soft spring wheat seems to have topped out for right now Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 11 Feb 2022 | Bacon Buying Benched | 00:04:27 | |
Take a seat bacon purchasers- it's a "buy what you need time". Pork production continues to lag with production down 3% from the prior week and 8.5% behind last year. Bellies closed yesterday at $179 up from last weeks $161. I originally thought we would be at the peak by now but now I’m thinking this inflated belly market may have some legs. For the time being, I’m on the sideline with buying bacon in this market, just buy what you need. Butts and loins both moving higher as well. Spring usually see increase in pork but that may be muted this year since… well, we are already there. What an interesting chicken market. Breast and tenders continue to be tight and moving higher. Wings are high, no great bargains to be found, but they are available, very different from last year. So plenty of wings for Super Bowl and March Madness coming in a few weeks. Chicken producers seem to be intent to meet current demands. As with so much these days though, labor and transportation present the biggest challenges. Whole chickens are where the value is if you have the labor talent and ability to sell the whole bird. Soy started cranking up last week and it hasn’t stopped this week. we are at the highest market since October last year. I’d stay ahead on soy products as I don’t think there will be any real breaks coming soon. Wheat was holding fairly steady for a couple weeks but this week sees both Hard Red winter wheat and Soft Spring Wheat are moving higher again. If you are a big flour users I’d stay will ahead on my needs. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 18 Feb 2022 | The Dreaded Butter Rollercoaster | 00:03:22 | |
Thursday, February 17, 2022 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 25 Feb 2022 | Wings, Wheat and War | 00:03:36 | |
Beef processors are keeping the plants humming, last week’s production of 663K head was up from the prior week’s 659K. Bellies closed at $214 yesterday, up from last week’s $209. War has a way of making commodity markets jumpy. All of em. Corn closed yesterday at $6.89 up from last week’s $6.53. Weather in South America, war in Ukraine, all make American corn more valuable. Unfortunately it means it costs more to feed the animals we eat. No good news here. Soy is moving up as well, three straight weeks of increases and I’m hearing expect more to come. Wheat is the one taking off due to conflict in Ukraine. I’ve been saying a while stay ahead on flour, lets really keep that advise, Ukraine and Russia account for about 29% of the worlds wheat exports and right now that commerce is in jeopardy. Episode sources: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm
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| 04 Mar 2022 | Ukraine | The Number 1 Supplier of Sunflower Oil In The World | 00:04:15 | |
Ukraine is the #1 supplier of sunflower oil in the world. Sunflower oil is popular making crackers, cookies, and pastry applications. If sunflower isn’t available these manufacturers will move to what’s available.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
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| 11 Mar 2022 | The Control of Corn | 00:05:02 | |
Corn closed yesterday at $7.56 up from last week’s $7.29. Remember when we were worried about $5 corn? Yeah, us too. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 18 Mar 2022 | Liquid Gold - The Effects of Sunflower Oil Strain On Other Edible Oils | 00:04:56 | |
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/avian-flu-outbreak-in-the-u-s-what-to-know-right-now https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1eE2FDL6Iwy9szQLuwi-rD0AwSuncNipk&usp=sharing https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/spain-trucker-strike-sparks-supply-chain-tensions-01647530107
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| 25 Mar 2022 | Is Anything NOT Expensive? | 00:03:57 | |
If you are in the local market I do hope you will be joining us at the Saval Foodservice 90th anniversary celebration this Monday at Maryland Live Casino & Resort. I’ll be there doing what I do best… talking. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 01 Apr 2022 | Avian Flu On The Move | 00:03:51 | |
As of yesterday, avian flu has been detected in 23 states, up from last week at 17 states. So far 17 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 4 million birds for the week. . Detection of avian flu in Minnesota is quite concerning as 20% of the US turkey population is raised in Minnesota. As with last week, shell eggs are on a tear moving higher again for next week. We have two weeks to Easter, hopefully we can get by the holiday and see these prices ease. Boneless chicken breasts continue to inch higher on strong retail and QSR demand. Wings may be about at bottom for this market so if you are inclined and have the room, would not be a bad thing to load in a few cases. Breasts running at a premium of over $.70/# over wings is extraordinary. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 08 Apr 2022 | Avian Flu Spreads Further | 00:04:30 | |
Lets look at a few markets together and I’m starting again this week with Poultry because Avian Flu continues to grow. Poultry As of yesterday avian flu has been detected in 24 states just one more than last week. So far 23 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 6 million birds for the week. Hardest hit is Iowa and egg laying facilities. Of the 23 million birds affected, 13 million have been in Iowa. While any detection is difficult when egg layers are infected not only do we lose the bird but also all the eggs they won’t be laying. Shell eggs a week before Easter are typically as high as they get, so let’s hope we see some relief over the next couple weeks though we are in a very different situation than usual. During the 2015 Avian flu outbreak the total bird depopulation was about 50 million birds. Warm weather will slow the virus so we probably have several weeks to go. Demand for chicken continues strong and breast meat continues higher. Wings continue to amaze me with lower numbers again. I know it is really early to say this, but turkeys for the holidays are lining up to be very short and very expensive. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 15 Apr 2022 | Soy Oil Hits A High | 00:03:49 | |
Soy oil has moved to it’s highest trade level of the year. Strong export demand and biofuels help keep pushing soy higher. Wheat is tight, and expensive though I’m told come June or July we should see relief in availability of flour. I’m not believing yet, but we will keep watching. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 22 Apr 2022 | Soy Oil Hits Record High & Avian Flu Spreads Further | 00:03:54 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 29 states, three more added since last week. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 29 Apr 2022 | Cautious Optimism & Climbing Corn | 00:03:22 | |
Avian Flu has now been detected in 29 states , with no additional states for the week. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 06 May 2022 | Record High For Soy Oil | 00:04:02 | |
There is expectation that Indonesia will reopen their palm oil exports, which will be a big help, but I don’t see soy coming back any time soon. A look at wheat and markets are moving higher again on poor plantings and very strong demand. I know I say it every week, but stay well ahead of your flour needs. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.card.iastate.edu/research/biorenewables/tools/hist_eth_gm.aspx Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 13 May 2022 | Turkey Troubles & Wheat Woes | 00:05:00 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 34 states adding two more states to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up about 1 million for the week. We are seeing slower growth each week and as I understand it this virus is not hardy in warmer weather. Heading into summer we should see things calm down, but the effects of this outbreak should not be minimized. Egg layers and turkey producers have been severely affected. Expect turkey products to be tight and expensive, and I’m not even talking about the holidays. Looking at chicken and this song is the same. Breast meat is higher still and no sign of stopping. Wings maybe are about as low as we are going to see. I’m not expecting wings to move higher just seems we may be at the bottom here. Production numbers are not increasing to keep pace with the strong demand. Things could be getting tight on breast meat in the next few weeks. Hard to buy ahead on fresh product but I would not recommend running this inventory tight. Episode Sources:
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| 20 May 2022 | Chicken Breast is More Expensive Than Ground Beef | 00:04:43 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states adding one more state to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 100K for the week. One contact in the turkey business told me we just need 7 straight days over 70 degrees and the virus will die. Again, the damage is done but hopefully we are at the end of this outbreak. Not to be a downer but I did see some speculation the virus will return come fall when the weather gets cool again and give us a double whammy. Looking at current markets and chicken breasts are still moving higher and setting new records. With breast meat now costing more than ground beef and pork loins and butts, I’m hard pressed to see this market continue much higher, but with QSR demand holding strong and production only showing small increases I don’t see any relief either. Looks like we were right on wings having hit bottom, they are moving higher again. Still a bargain compared to breast meat but I think we’ve seen the bottom for this run on wing prices. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 27 May 2022 | Minus 38 Million Birds | 00:03:55 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states same as last week. Just over 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 24K for the week, the smallest total in weeks. Most affected are egg layers which accounts for about 76% of all avian flu cases. Turkeys have been hit hard as well, availability will be impacted on turkeys and turkey products. Looking at current markets and the march higher on boneless chicken breast continues. Wings are now moving higher as well, still the bargain in chicken though.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 03 Jun 2022 | Avian Flu is Winding Down (Maybe) | 00:04:31 | |
We are seeing the wind-down of Avian Flu with only one state, Georgia, added this week making the total number of states 36. Three farms in Iowa have had their quarantine lifted and are starting to repopulate their operations. Chicken breasts and tenders continue higher with no stop in sight. Wings remain the bargain here. Turkey is scarce and expensive. Specialty eggs are in tight supply. Beef production is strong and there is product available, but prices are moving slightly higher. Pork prices are holding steady, but production will decline in the heat of the summer. Corn and soy planting have picked up the pace and are almost meeting the five-year average. With wheat still being difficult this year, stay well ahead of your flour needs.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 10 Jun 2022 | The Foodservice Impacts of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine | 00:04:16 | |
Let’s look at some markets and start again with Poultry and the continuation of the Avian Flu outbreak. Poultry: Avian Flu now has been detected in 36 states same as last week. After last week only reporting 600 birds this week we had a large egg laying operation in Colorado depopulate 1.9 million birds pushing the overall total to just shy of 40 million birds. My hopes for this outbreak to be over look a bit premature right now. Looking at boneless skinless breasts I’m finally seeing chicken breasts have peaked and slowly moving just a bit lower. Tenders are still well sold and holding their value but we seem to be heading lower on breast meat.. finally. Chicken production is up slightly over the last week, demand is still strong from the QSR segment but looks like. Wings are holding steady and continue to be the value in the chicken market. Beef: The holiday shortened production week had 603 K harvested down from the prior week 644K which is a pretty strong production number for a holiday week. There is product available and the market seems pretty steady. Rounds and chucks are steady, loins and tenderloins have the most current demand and are steady to slightly up. Ribeyes are not demanding the summer attention we’ve seen in previous years. Even though we are well below pricing same time last year beef is not holding retail demand. I don’t see much to change a well supplied market with moderate demand, I’ll call this market just hanging out. Pork: Bellies crashed yesterday all the way down to $138 almost $35 dollars down from last week’s $173. This is not something typical this time of year. Bellies can bounce around and be unpredictable so let’s take advantage of this current low market, I don’t think this will last. Loins and butts continue pretty steady for a third week, still fairly elevated but for the time of year we seem to be doing Ok. Ribs on the other hand after chilling for a couple weeks are moving higher again. All these pork prices should have a summer peak in late July or early August. Grains: Corn closed at $7.97 up from last week’s $7.52. Continued war in Ukraine is holding up product for much of the world. New crop planting is nearly done with 94% of the crop in the ground. Export demand continues strong so no relief on corn prices any time soon. Soy beans hit an all time high this week which has not translated to soy oil.. yet. Still holding steady for a second week though Canola is getting tight, and outpricing soy now. Some suppliers are allocating canola oil hoping to stretch to new crop. New soy crop is 78% planted up from 66% last week so a few more weeks planting hand hoping the weather cooperates. Wheat continues to struggle, spring wh Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 17 Jun 2022 | What The News Isn't Telling You About Beef Production | 00:03:30 | |
While the news is indicating that there is an upcoming beef shortage, you may want to take that with a grain of salt. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 24 Jun 2022 | Repercussions For Months To Come | 00:03:27 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected. For the first time since the initial cases reported in February, we have gone a whole week with no new cases reported. The damage done hold at just over 40 million birds removed from the food chain. We will feel the repercussions from this for months to come, the two industry segments most affected are chicken egg layers and turkeys. Expect very tight supply and increasing pricing for the next few months. The southeast home to most of the chicken producers was minimally affected and after the recent run up in boneless breast prices we continue on the way down with lower prices again this week. I think there is some more downside to this slide, as now chicken is finally back below ground beef pricing. Still, we have more room to slide. Wings are holding steady as demand is being well met by current production.
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| 01 Jul 2022 | Avian Flu Claims 40 Million Birds | 00:03:28 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 350 new cases reported since last week so we stand at about 40 million birds lost to the virus.. Turkey products and egg products will continue to be tight to unavailable for several months. Chicken production is holding pretty steady but demand is not. Boneless breasts continue to lower prices again this week, they have more downside to come. Wings are holding steady and tenders are finally starting to follow breasts lower but still seem pretty inflated to me. Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 08 Jul 2022 | Looks Like An Expensive Summer For Pork | 00:03:49 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 306 new cases reported since last week. the last 13 reports have all been small backyard farms, the last major producer report was almost a month ago on June 9. We have a few very tough months to get through as turkey and egg producers look to restock their farms and get production going again. Recovery will take pretty much the rest of 2022. Egg prices are starting to show the strain of losing all those birds. Even with inflated egg prices, eggs continue to be a good value for protein. I do think we will see continued increases on eggs. Chicken production is holding steady and the market is pretty quiet this week. Coming out of the holiday with lower production numbers should pause a lower market for a week or so but I still see the overall chicken market moving lower.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 15 Jul 2022 | Is There Finally Good News For Flour? | 00:03:30 | |
Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 22 Jul 2022 | Avian Flu Refusing To Let Up | 00:03:21 | |
I keep hoping Avian Flu is on its last leg and new cases are certainly down, but over the last week 42,000 head were reported infected, mostly turkey operations in Utah. That brings our total number of birds lost to over 40,100,000. Maybe this week’s nationwide heat wave will help end the new cases. We hold at 37 states with reported cases. Looking at chicken and QSR and foodservice demand are lightening up while pricing for wings and boneless breasts continue lower. Tenders seem to be the only chicken part holding value. Expect chicken to continue to return to the value protein we’ve depended on. Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 29 Jul 2022 | Chicken Normalizes For Now | 00:03:02 | |
Continuing to look at Avian Flu and we added a new state this past week as Florida makes the 38th state with reported cases, including the Florida operation only 450 new cases reported. Looking forward to a week with no new cases. Chicken market is tanking. Like dropping like a rock and back to costs we are used to seeing, dropping several dollars per case next week. Production is still steady but demand has fallen off. I think we’ve got a few more weeks of these lower prices. Time of a wing special. Turkey continues to be expensive with tight supplies. Buy chicken.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 05 Aug 2022 | Pork Belly Breaks Records | 00:03:19 | |
Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242. Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209. This is expensive territory for bacon. If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 19 Aug 2022 | Summer Wrap-Up | 00:03:27 | |
Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected. I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away. The damage is done, the recovery in process. If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 26 Aug 2022 | Time To Buy Bacon | Pork Drops $56 | 00:03:55 | |
First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother! Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 02 Sep 2022 | Keeping An Eye On Corn | 00:03:22 | |
Grains Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35. Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping. There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand. Something I will be watching. Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming. The soy harvest could be similarly affected by weather as corn. Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind. International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 09 Sep 2022 | Avian Flu Takes A Toll on Turkey | 00:03:23 | |
Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend. BUT – it is a trend. This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys. Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year. Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year. Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher. So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply. Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778 https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 16 Sep 2022 | Hot Weather Heightens Grain Prices | 00:03:55 | |
A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%. That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%. These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Episode Sources: https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 23 Sep 2022 | Bird Flu Might Be Here To Stay | 00:03:30 | |
This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up. With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again. This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Episode Sources https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 30 Sep 2022 | Nothing Encouraging To Say About Turkey | Episode 100! | 00:06:14 | |
Happy Episode 100! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 07 Oct 2022 | Great Time to Feature Beef, Chicken and Pork | 00:03:53 | |
Beef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the total number of birds removed from the food supply to 47.1 million. Most new cases are turkeys, making this holiday season pretty tight with supply. For grains, corn is down from last week, soy oil is down, and wheat is holding steady. Pork continues to be a good value, with pricing very similar to last week. Also a great menu feature. For dairy, barrel is up three, block is up two, and butter is up seven, a new record high. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 14 Oct 2022 | Chicken Prices Fall Further | 00:03:29 | |
Beef production was 664,000 head for last week, same as the week prior. Chucks and rounds have found some support with pricing more up a bit. Roast weather is coming soon and retail feature will be pulling on these items. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 21 Oct 2022 | This Is What You Call A Collapse | Chicken Prices Plummet | 00:03:25 | |
The Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse. Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week. The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market. Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week. Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers. Now the weekly bird flu numbers. 18 new reports since last week. Total birds removed from the food chain 168K, mostly turkeys. total so far for the year, 47.7 million head. Turkey shortages will be with us well into 2023. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 28 Oct 2022 | Chicken Holds Course While Beef Heats Up | 00:04:08 | |
Beef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior. Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision. Even with heavy production this market is moving higher. Chuck Rolls are oversold and demanding strong premiums. The rest of the chuck complex is moving higher as well. Rounds seem to be pretty well balanced and with ground beef are holding steady and at reasonable price levels. Tenderloins and ribeyes are already getting into holiday pricing levels though I’m hearing we won’t see too much more upside to these cuts but no bargains to be had either. Strips are still the value in middle meats but they are moving a bit higher as well. This is the time of year where buying sooner is better than waiting, you will pay more money later. We should have this market on a steady increase right into early December. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 11 Nov 2022 | 50.3 Million Birds | 00:03:52 | |
This beef market is moving up pretty aggressively and with production holding up pretty strong with 668K head harvested last week, down only 5K from the week before it seems to me a bit early. Next week everyone is talking turkey. Grading is not great, with premium products at premium prices and short on the market. Select grade and commodity choice product are showing much more available. I think we are in a few more weeks of increasing markets so if you need product, buying sooner is better than waiting. The chuck complex and grinds are leading the way up in this market. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crop-progress-report-11722 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 18 Nov 2022 | What Will Even Out First? Chicken Prices or Egg Prices? | 00:04:00 | |
The focus is on turkey for next week. There are turkeys to sell, but the price is pretty stiff. Avian Flu has hit turkey hard this year and unlike to previous outbreak in 2015 this one is not over yet. The avian flu numbers for the week, are relatively modest with 9 new reports affecting 50K birds. Total birds affected so far this year, 50.3 million. While turkeys were hit very hard, chicken down the southern seaboard were relatively virus free and there is way too much chicken on the market right now. For the second week in a row eggs sets are below last year so numbers will ease in the coming weeks. Right now chicken is “cheap” and plentiful and I don’t see that changing at least the next couple weeks. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 02 Dec 2022 | 8 Million Turkeys and 40 Million Egg Laying Chickens | 00:04:05 | |
Avian Flu continues to plague the poultry industry. For the last week, 15 new reports affecting 1.9 million birds. Total birds removed from the food supply this year: 52.4 million, and we are not done. As the southern migration continues bird flu is now being reported in Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. The CEO of Hormel, Jim Snee, which owns Jennie O turkey expects bird flu to affect supply into the second half of 2023 – no relief anytime soon. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.just-food.com/news/hormel-foods-ceo-jim-snee-braces-for-volatile-high-cost-new-year/ Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 09 Dec 2022 | How Low Can You Go | Chicken Continues Lower | 00:03:26 | |
Chicken's been a bargain for several weeks and to my surprise, we were not at the bottom of this market. Wings moving lower again. This is not a healthy market. Packers losing money on every bird they sell but I don’t see this turning just yet. There are deals to be had on chicken, breasts, tender, wings. Packers just need to keep the meat moving. Production is lowering but only slightly, not enough to make a real difference just yet. Now to the weekly avian flu update. 19 new reports affecting 323K birds, almost all turkeys. Total birds lost this year, 53 million. And the beat goes on… https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 16 Dec 2022 | Prime Time For Pork | 00:03:20 | |
Looking at pork, and bellies had a roller coaster week up and down but as of yesterday, back down to close at $84.58 up from last week at $80.49. At these levels the only questions is how much to buy, not if to buy. The rest of the pork complex is similarly low and offering great value. I often say pork is a value protein to offer and it is so true right now. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 23 Dec 2022 | Chicken Holds At Historic Lows | 00:03:11 | |
Thanks for joining me today, three days before Christmas and nine days to a new year. Let’s start with looking at beef this week. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 30 Dec 2022 | We're Looking At An Expensive Start to 2023 | 00:03:33 | |
So arctic temperatures and bad weather across the country took my expectations and just stomped on them. Holiday shortened beef production was 566K head down from the previous full week of 629K head. We have another week of two weeks of shortened work weeks which will be making product tight over the next couple weeks. Already those anticipated drops in Tenderloins and ribeyes are not happening. I’m going to push them out a couple weeks in expectation. I still think we have some down side here, just not as soon as I anticipated. On the other side, loins, rounds, chucks and especially grinds are moving up daily. With lower cattle numbers to process the pressure to make money on every head increases. Product is going to be tight and I think too expensive for January. I’d buy just what I need and wait for opportunities to break. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 06 Jan 2023 | Beef Goes Against The Grain | Holiday Prices Holding On | 00:03:54 | |
This time in January we should be seeing substantial discounting on ribeyes and tenderloins. Not seeing any movement lower. The premium holiday items are holding onto all those gains in December. With the discounting on those middle meats we traditionally see increases on chuck, rounds strips and especially ground beef. We are seeing those traditional seasonal increases. With a total harvest of 547K head last week, down from the prior week’s 566K and this week will also be a holiday shortened work week sellers are showing they are confident they can move product at these reduced volumes. I’m still holding onto a move lower for Ribeyes and tenderloins, but lets look for this move toward the end of the month. An interesting start to 2023. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 13 Jan 2023 | Chicken Demand Starts To Match Production | 00:03:08 | |
Beef is finally starting to look like I would expect a couple weeks ago. They didn’t move much, but I’ll take a move lower on ribeyes and tenderloins as a start. Finally. I think they have a long way to go in only a few short weeks before Valentine’s Day props up pricing again, but for right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are moving lower. Strips on the other hand are moving higher just as expected. Chucks have given up a bit of recent ground but I think only temporary. Rounds still showing pretty strength. The leaders up right now are strips and ground beef. This pattern with lower middle meats and higher end meats should continue at least a couple more weeks. Last weeks harvest was a third holiday shortened week with only 563K harvested up from the prior week’s 547K head. Keeping inventories tight and trying to get buyers to chase product. https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 20 Jan 2023 | Dairy Heats Up While Beef Begins To Stick to Tradition (Three Weeks Late) | 00:03:19 | |
So this market is turning out like I expected, just about three weeks late. Ribeyes and tenderloins and giving ground, even though they are historically high for January they are heading in the right direction… down. Strip Loin and Short Loins are picking up that market pricing moving higher along with grinds. Chucks and rounds seem to be just churning steady right now. Production last week was back to non-holiday totals with 661K head harvested up from the holiday short week of 563K head the week prior. The next big beef holidays are Valentine’s day and St Patrick’s Day. With this very late movement lower on middle meats the bump for Valentine’s day we usually see should be pretty muted. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 27 Jan 2023 | Poultry Shows Promise But "Flu Season" Is Looming | 00:03:36 | |
Wings and random breasts are inching higher which is really a good thing. It is not healthy for the industry when suppliers are losing money on every bird they produce which has been the case. Production is pulling back just enough to push the market slowly higher. Chicken is still a great value so I would still be featuring chicken. The weekly doom and gloom of Avian flu report… 9 new reports over the last week, 304K birds affected. Total birds lost 58.2 million birds. We will be looking at the northern migration in a few weeks and this virus has never really left from last year. We could be in for two years of avian flu loses, just something to keep watching. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 03 Feb 2023 | Are Tenderloins Really A Good Value? | 00:03:08 | |
February is the lowest demand month for beef and usually we will see some of the lowest prices of the year. Harvest last week was a robust 659K head, up from the prior week of 646K head. This seems to be a bit strong production for February, I don’t see the demand supporting this. Something to certainly watch the next couple weeks. Ribeyes and Tenderloins are doing their seasonal reductions and I think we might push this another week or two, especially if production numbers keep this high. Chuck, rounds, grinds all seem to be in neutral and at decent trade levels. The next week beef holiday, valentine’s day just a bit over a week away and those ribeyes and tenderloins will be a good value. I don’t say that often. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 17 Feb 2023 | Is Avian Flu Here To Stay? | 00:03:26 | |
This week, 7 new reports affecting 17K birds putting the total birds so far at 58.4 million. There is continued discussion and opinion that avian flu will continue to affect domestic poultry through 2023 and could continue to be around every year. With the virus surviving the heat of summer and freezing winter it looks like this virus is not fading away. Those rosy outlooks for the second half of 2023? Yeah, I’m not buying. Now looking at chicken and the slow increase continues with pricing up on wings and randoms. Again, this market was so low we are just getting back to some normalcy in chicken pricing. Plenty of production and demand is good. Still makes chicken a great value. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 24 Feb 2023 | Don't Delay the Beef Buy | 00:03:15 | |
Beef production is dropping with intentions to tighten the supply. The winter storm moving through the Midwest has prices moving up daily. Don't overreact, but buy what you need now. Chicken prices seem to have stalled for a moment and production numbers are still very strong making chicken a great value. Not much is happening in corn, soy oil is moving up a bit, and there isn't much going on with wheat. Pork pricing is moving higher slightly, but pork remains a great value. Feature pork! Dairy is looking good, but spring could bring a new push in pricing. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 03 Mar 2023 | When Production Slows, Beef Prices Rise | 00:03:51 | |
Beef harvest dropped again last week to 618K compared to 627K the week prior. Beef processors or determined to keep this market tight and with production numbers like these they are being successful. I expect we will see these reduced harvest numbers right to the end of March. This is not a panic situation but as I said last week, buy beef now, waiting until next week will cost you more money. Every segment of the beef complex is moving higher, thin meats leading the way. Middle meats especially strip loins are on the way up, ribeyes and tenderloins up too though increases a bit more modest. Ground beef is up and I do think we will see that continue steadily over the next few weeks. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 10 Mar 2023 | Beef Production Springs Slightly Forward | 00:03:35 | |
Beef harvest picks up from last week totally 629K head up from last week to 618K head. These production numbers are keeping the market tight. Though March is not stacking with strong demand as of yet and the recent rally we’ve seen with both bad weather and reduced production seems to have lost a bit of steam. I’ve not seen anything moving lower but the steady increases over the past couple weeks are cooling off. The last couple weeks my advice was buy now, waiting will cost you money. Though I do think the overall trend continues higher I don’t see the urgency this week to buy now. Take measure what you need or want and I think a cool head can make a good buying decision. Once the weather breaks and demand moves higher I would change that philosophy but for night now, I think the market has a bit of a pause. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 17 Mar 2023 | Profitable Move to Menu Ribs | 00:03:51 | |
Beef production is creeping up as we approach Spring. Middle meats are holding steady, but the next move will most likely be higher. Chucks and rounds should move lower, while thin cuts will steadily increase. Beef is not the bargain buy right now, but it should hold steady for a week or so. Chicken wings are on the decline again. Strong production numbers continue. Breasts and tenders continue to slowly rise. Nine new cases of Avian flu were reported last week affecting 19,000 birds, which brings the total to 58.6 million. Corn is up from last week, soy oil inched lower, and flour is steady to lower. Pork is up from last week just a bit, but pricing is still really favorable. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 24 Mar 2023 | Key Proteins To Feature This Spring | 00:04:10 | |
Beef harvest is holding pretty steady at 631K head down just a bit from last week at 634K head. Even with these restricted production numbers, pricing is pretty restrained as there is not big demand pushing this product out. I still think the overall tone of this market is moving higher but I think we have a week or two before the weather turns and we get some really nice weather to get people out and about and that will push up demand. Until then, this is pretty steady for at least the next week. The popular items for Cinco de Mayo continue to be leading the market a bit higher, otherwise we are steady to some give back in chucks and rounds. Beef would be a good buy now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 31 Mar 2023 | As Usual, Menu Pork | 00:03:10 | |
Pork Belly closed yesterday at $91 up from last week at $82. Still, anything under $100 is bargain time. Same burdensome inventory is keeping pork a real protein value, whether it is bacon, loins, ribs, the only exception continue to be butts which continue to enjoy strong export demand. As usual I recommend to menu pork. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 07 Apr 2023 | Happy Cows Just Produce More Milk, They Just Do | 00:04:36 | |
If you got the Legally Blonde reference, we appreciate you. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 14 Apr 2023 | Beef Prices Springing Higher | 00:04:10 | |
So we’ve been looking at this beef market expecting a spring increase based on better demand with spring. Retail demand has been pretty tepid, so beef producers are going to force this market higher by restraining supply. We’ve seen this over the past few weeks but they are serious now. Last week was a total of 603K head harvested, down from the previous week’s 651K head. This week is shaping up to be very close to the 603K head number which has got some buyers a bit uneasy and packers are pushing up prices quickly. Last week was the time to buy, this week will be better than buying next week. All segments of the beef complex are moving higher. Thin meats like flank and skirt and leading the way as buyers want to cover their needs for Cinco de Mayo. If you need beef, buy now, don’t wait. Waiting will cost you money. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 21 Apr 2023 | 4/20 Sends Chicken Tenders Higher... Shocking | 00:03:36 | |
Chicken Tenders are leading the way higher, but it seems they are doing this all alone. Boneless Skinless random breasts and wings are both moving lower again. Production continues strong about the same pace we’ve seen for weeks now so product is readily available. Chicken continues to be a good value . Now onto avian flu and two good weeks are about all we could stand. This week we’ve seen our first large turkey operations report new cases. One in each North and South Dakota. For the week 8 new cases affecting 136K birds, moving our total birds lost to Avian Flu to 58.8 million head. Hopefully an event, not a trend. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 28 Apr 2023 | Will this be a $200 Pork Belly Summer? | 00:03:44 | |
Last week’s harvest of 622K was up from the prior week of 613K but still well below what we would expect this time of year and a good 25 -30K head below last year. There is some consensus we will stay in this reduced production cycle well into summer which may make beef a luxury choice. The continuing “bargain” pricing in chicken and pork will be a drag on these moves higher, but only so much. Looking at next week, with pretty moderate demand, all segments are moving higher, middle meats, chuck, grinds especially, so I’m back to the advice if you need it buy it, waiting will cost you money. Beef is shaping up to an expensive spring and summer buy. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 05 May 2023 | Up, Down, and Everything In Between | 00:04:17 | |
Chicken is interesting, a little of everything up down and in between. Tenders are still running a bit short and moving up again, boneless skinless random breasts are holding steady though I would not be surprised if the next move in breast meat is higher. Wings on the other hand, still moving lower. This week’s avian flu update and I have nothing to say. NO new cases reported for the last week. Best news in a long while. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 12 May 2023 | Wings for Memorial Day? | 00:03:55 | |
Reduced harvest numbers continue for beef, about 5% lower than last year. Beef pricing is elevated and will most likely stay that way. Wings will be the item for Memorial Day as they continue lower. Tenders remain the premium item in chicken. Only one new case reported this week for Avian Flu. Pork bellies are down $10 from last week and production is up. Smoked or grilled pork is also a great option for Memorial Day. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 19 May 2023 | Corn Hits Under $6 | 00:03:36 | |
Corn closed at $5.89. Down from last week's $6.21, and the first time under $6 since November 2021. China canceled several more loads of corn contributing to the decline. Additionally, china is buying corn for the first time from South Africa. An expected big crop this year, reduced demand for export and we could be seeing much lower corn prices once we get into new crop. The new crop is 65% planted now and moving along. Things are looking good on the corn front. Soy oil is moving lower again, and these commodities could really help reduce overall inflation as they are an essential ingredient in so many products. USR AND UKR agreed to a 60 day extension on safe passage in the black sea. These moved wheat a bit lower too. Overall the grain category is supporting lower costs, that’s all good news.
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 26 May 2023 | The Start Of The "Silly Season" For Grain | 00:03:24 | |
We got one week of corn under $5 last week, that did not last long, corn closed at $6.37 and I don’t know why. There have been canceled export orders from not only China, but now Mexico as well. Mexico has added Brazil to their supplier list. The current crop is 81 % planted and all indications are for a bumper crop. We will begin the silly season where the market will change just on a weather forecast. Until we can move corn lower, we will continue with inflated protein markets. Looking at soy oil and we are about as low as I’ve seen in several years. I’m hearing we may be about as low as we will go for a bit, I’m I’m holding on for a bit more to the downside. Wheat had a wild week up and down but settled about where it started. Flour pricing is starting to look fairly attractive, that has been a while coming. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 02 Jun 2023 | Lowest Block Prices Since May 2020 | 00:03:17 | |
Beef harvest declined to 625K head last week, compared to the prior week’s 642K head. Year-to-date production is running about 5% below last year making a pretty tight market for available product. It's a good time to buy what you need but I would not be extending beyond that. Production continues pretty strong keeping chicken well supplied. We should see this pattern continue. As for Avian Flu – I have nothing to say other than great news of another week with no new cases reported. Corn closed at $6.44 up from last week’s $6.37. Soy Oil is moving up just a bit, we had our lowest market in over three years last week, so moving up just a bit. Wheat markets continue in turmoil, up down, and all around. Pork bellies closed at $77, up from last week's $72. Bacon continues to be a great buy. Butts are continuing higher with a strong export demand push. And finally, barrel has no change, block is down 12 – seeing our lowest block price since May of 2020 – and butter is up 2. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 09 Jun 2023 | How Things Can Change In A Week | 00:03:28 | |
The end of last week beef pricing started heating up and this week it is not stopping. Demand is finally pushing these reduced harvest numbers and in turn pushing pricing higher. On the holiday shortened week the beef harvest was 573K head, down from the prior week’s 625K head. You will see increasing prices across the board on beef products. Especially affected are the thin meats, briskets, flank, sirloin flap, but you will see increases in rounds, chucks, grinds, pretty much everything is pushing higher. Until production numbers increase (not likely) or buyers reduce demand I don’t think we have a quick down turn anytime soon. This is a market where you buy it now because next week, it will be more money. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 16 Jun 2023 | Red Hot Beef Market | 00:03:39 | |
Last week the overall beef market took a sharp turn higher and this week is more of the same. Every cut of beef is moving higher again this week. Post holiday harvest was a pretty modest 615K head which is up from the holiday week of 573K head but these restricted harvest numbers continue to pressure the market higher. Middle meats are up strong, rounds, chucks, thin meats especially continue to demand premium dollars. I think we have to get passed the July 4th holiday and this market will come off, but that is a few weeks away. Same advice as last week, if you need it, buy it. Waiting will cost you more money. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 23 Jun 2023 | The Impact of California's Prop 12 | 00:05:03 | |
California Prop 12, the animal welfare bill, was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court on May 11 of this year. The new law has an effective date of July 1. California processors, retailers, foodservice, and anyone dealing with pork have been buying anything they can get their hands on and getting it shipped prior to the July 1 deadline. This has tossed the whole industry upside down, prices have shot up quickly, product availability is all of the sudden tight, and just to beat the July 1 deadline. However yesterday, the judge in charge of this case delayed implementation until Jan 1, 2024. So what’s all this going to mean? Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 30 Jun 2023 | Pork Politics | Why some pork will have to re-route around Massachusetts | 00:03:55 | |
Pork is recovering from the crazy few weeks prior to Prop 12 implementation which is now pushed to January 1. I mentioned Massachusetts and their new regulations which go into effect July 12. A quirk or feature of the MA rules is no pork can be in transit through the state that doesn’t meet there new regulations, so product destined north of MA will have to route around the state. Looking at actual pork and not the politics around it, bellies closed at $105, up from last week’s $99 so I do think we will see a steady increase through summer. Butts continue to trade at a premium with some tight supplies. Loins continue to be a great value in pork. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 07 Jul 2023 | Has Poultry Finally Moved Past the Avian Flu? | 00:03:43 | |
Chicken continues to be the protein value. No changes for next week in wings, boneless skinless random breasts or tenders. Production numbers continue strong so there is product available and at good values. With production numbers continuing this strong, I don’t see much change to this pattern right now. A quick note that we continue with no new Avian Flu reports. All good news on the poultry front. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 14 Jul 2023 | Pork Heats Up | 00:03:38 | |
Pork… here is the hot market. Bellies closed yesterday at $158 up from $141 last week. Bacon producers are raising prices daily. I thought $160-$170 might be a peak come August but I may be undervaluing this market. Getting bacon bought is not a bad idea. On the butt side we seem to have peaked for the current market and moving lower but again, temper any expectations for lower costs. It will be lower but only so much. Loins as always ,that is the value and ribs in the height of the season continue a good value. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 21 Jul 2023 | Pork Bellies Continue to Soar | 00:03:26 | |
The beef market continues to slowly move lower on middle meats, thin meats, chucks, and rounds. Ground beef holds steady. Buy product if you need it, but waiting a week may save you money. Chicken production continues strong and prices are moving higher in wings and breasts. Tenders are moving a little lower. We have gone over two months with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Grains are seeing a ton of action with prices going up on everything. Pork bellies are up $35 from last week. Butts are moving lower and loins are just a little higher but still a great value. The dairy market continues to rise with more upside to come. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 28 Jul 2023 | Dairy Markets Sky Rocket | 00:04:11 | |
Tight supplies and inflated prices in beef will be an ongoing issue. For next week, a few lower middle meats, again not big moves but moving lower. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding up. One more week of buy what you need, but next week should see better pricing. Chicken remains the value in proteins., with strong production numbers and prices just inching up. Sadly, on Tuesday we had the first reported Avian Flu case since May 18th. 660 birds in New York. There is a lot of action in grains with tension in Russia and Ukraine, drought concerns, and prices on everything moving higher. Bellies closed at $214, butts continue lower, and ribs and loins are a great deal. Dairy markets are moving up like a rocket. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 04 Aug 2023 | Hot Weather Slows Protein Production | 00:03:58 | |
Hot, summer weather is slowing down production on beef and chicken, making prices inch higher in most circumstances. There are not many bargains to be had in beef, but waiting to buy will cost you money. Chicken is still a good value in protein, but we are seeing a steady move higher. Another Avian Flu report was made in the same county in New York with 490 more birds infected. Still the only new cases since May, but something to keep an eye on. Corn is down from last week, and soy is finally seeing an end to the several weeks' climb. Wheat is holding steady. Pork bellies closed just a dollar up from last week at $215. Butts continue to decline, and loins and ribs continue to offer real value. Dairy markets are up again this week, but are hopefully losing a bit of steam. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 11 Aug 2023 | Poultry Rises, Pork Falls | 00:03:32 | |
Poultry prices continue to rise on all cuts and categories in the chicken world. Demand for fresh chicken is increasing as well. There is still value here but look for continued increases in chicken. For the third week in a row, one new Avian Flu report from the same county in NY affects 800 birds. Beef production continues lower keeping any price reductions from happening during this season of weak demand. Better weather forecasts and rain have helped corn to close lower this week. Soy has stabilized and wheat is moving down. Pretty much the whole pork complex is moving lower and will probably continue that way for the next few weeks. Buy what you need, but waiting should save you money. Dairy has finally stopped the hard and fast increases from the last few weeks. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 18 Aug 2023 | Good Week for Grains | 00:03:07 | |
Beef production continued with another light week which keeps product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. We could see a change in this after Labor Day. It's a buy-what-you-need situation, but you may find a deal out there. For chicken, it's another week of pricing moving higher on wings, breasts, and tenders. Even with increased prices, chicken is still a great protein value. No new Avian Flu cases were reported this week. It was a good week for grain markets, as all are moving lower. Pork bellies closed lower this week and it looks like we have a good bit more movement lower. Wait to buy bacon if you can. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 25 Aug 2023 | Protein Ping Pong | 00:03:35 | |
Restricted beef production levels are having the desired effect. Pretty much every category is moving higher. Hopefully, after Labor Day, this market will settle down. Buy what you need now, next week will be more money. Chicken pricing is up on wings, breasts, and tenders. Chicken is still a good protein value, but buy what you need now. This market will continue to go up. For some good news, there are no new Avian Flu cases to report. Grains are moving down this week and things are looking okay there. Pork bellies continue to drop with better pricing on the way. Butts and ribs are still a great value. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 01 Sep 2023 | MAJOR CORN NEWS | 00:03:47 | |
Year to date, beef harvest is down 4.2% and this will continue into 2024. It's a tough time to buy beef with prices moving up in almost every category. Poultry prices continue higher again for next week as well. We've almost gone a month with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Corn has finally fallen, which is good news for everyone in the food business. Pork bellies closed at $114 this week which is $52 down from last week. It's buying time again. Butts, loins, and ribs are all great options too. Pork is a good buy in protein. The dairy market is back at it with a few moves higher. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 08 Sep 2023 | Holiday Pricing Starting Early | 00:03:28 | |
Beef production has been restricted for months now and this doesn't seem like it's going to change. The traditional holiday spread seems to be starting early this year. Strip loins are the bargain on middle meats. Poultry pricing continues higher as well, with a potential for more upside on wings. One week of corn below $5 was all we got. Large crop expectations in grains should keep these markets in check. Pork belly pricing is up from last week, but still reasonable. If you need bacon, buy it. Butts, loins, and hams make moves higher as well. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 15 Sep 2023 | Hams Will Be In Demand | 00:02:31 | |
Bellies closed yesterday at $124 down from last week $129. The pricing on bellies has a "buy sign" though I don’t think we will see a run up anytime soon. Butts, loins, and ribs are all moving a little higher, but nothing to be concerned with. Hams will be in demand as packers procure their needs for the holidays. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 21 Sep 2023 | Chicken Pricing: A Mixed Bag | 00:03:33 | |
A mixed bag in chickens this week as wings continue their assent higher each week. Random breasts did come off as expected and are moving lower and tenders are holding steady for the week. I’m finally seeing lower production numbers around 2% below last year, is 2% that big a deal? In chicken yes, that represents about 5 million birds NOT being produced. I think we will see continued tight supply on wings as prices continue to rise. Ugh… avian flu is back even if only one case, it is there to remind us it has not gone away. One new case reported in New Jersey affecting 600 birds. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 29 Sep 2023 | Butter Is On A Tear This Week | 00:03:19 | |
Through Thursday's close butter is up 34 and I expect Friday will have continued increase. The cheese markets are doing the exact opposite, barrel is down 10 and block is down 7. What I see is tightness in cream availability, especially in the Midwest where most butter plants are located. I still don’t see this as a strong enough reason for butter to shoot up like this. When markets do this, it is often wise to sit back and evaluate instead of jumping in. Definitely worth watching. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 06 Oct 2023 | Red Hot Butter Market | 00:03:43 | |
Butter has set a record high every day since last Wednesday. In beef, we are still seeing tight supplies and restrained production. Ground beef is moving higher but everything is else is moving up in preparation for the holidays. We are seeing lower production in poultry as well. Breasts and tenders are moving lower and wings are holding on to recent gains. On the avian flu front, one new case was reported affecting 70 birds in Idaho. Pork production picks up this time of year and is really putting a damper on any market moves higher. Ribs and loins represent very good values. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 13 Oct 2023 | Is Avian Flu Returning? | 00:04:01 | |
Avian Flu is back this week with five new cases reported, totaling a loss of 379,000 birds. Hopefully, this will be isolated and short-lived, but we’ll keep watching. Chicken production is down another 3% making the supply tighter, especially in wings. The dairy markets are finally cooling off. Beef harvest was up this week but is still much lower than last year. Expect prices to start moving higher. If buying, sooner is better than later. With pork production up, we are seeing pricing move lower on almost everything. There is good supply and good demand. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 20 Oct 2023 | Avian Flu Is Back | 00:03:37 | |
Let’s get to the bad news first. Avian Flu is back. Since last week, 10 new cases were reported, totally 189K birds affected. That’s over half a million birds the last two weeks lost from the food supply, most of which were Turkeys. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 27 Oct 2023 | Good News In Grain & Bad News For 314,000 Turkeys | 00:03:35 | |
Corn closed at $4.81 a second week below $5, Harvest is 59% complete. Export demand is less than robust, I think we may have finally gotten away from $6 corn, at least for the foreseeable future. This is excellent news for the whole protein industry built around cheap corn. Soy harvest is 76% done and though there is some uncertainty on international demand, pricing is pretty steady at least right now. Wheat is surprisingly moving a bit lower, nothing too extreme but with holiday baking season at hand, I’m a bit surprised. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 03 Nov 2023 | Finally, Some Butter Relief | 00:03:25 | |
Beef holiday pricing is in full swing and that's not changing any time soon. This will move up again next week. Buy now, waiting will cost you. There is plenty of pork product available with pricing moving lower on most cuts. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing on party wings, breasts, and tenders is also moving down. The surge in Avian Flu continues with new cases reported from Alaska to Alabama. Corn is down this week, soy is moving higher, and wheat is slightly lower. Cream availability is improving and the CME is responding with lower prices. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 10 Nov 2023 | Chicken Production Slows More | 00:03:20 | |
The beef holiday items are all moving higher for next week. We’ve been saying it for months but the lower beef production will continue into next year. If you are in the market for beef, buy now, next week will cost you more money. Pork production continues strong and pricing is attractive. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing continues to move lower. Corn and soy received huge reports from the USDA this week which could continue to drive prices down. Good news on the grain front. Dairy markets are all moving lower with more downside to come, hopefully. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 17 Nov 2023 | Dairy Market in the Upside Down | 00:04:09 | |
Beef production is down again from last week and last year. Middle meats are moving up a bit, while the others are due for some lower pricing. Bellies closed at $98 and will most likely stay in this area. Avian Flu has new numbers this week, and they aren't good. Not a trend we want to see. Pricing on chicken is mostly holding steady. Grain harvest is still looking good with exports picking up in corn. Dairy is once again flipping on us. Product is available, but pricing should reduce to spur export demand. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 01 Dec 2023 | Avian Flu Takes out 5 Million Birds | 00:04:16 | |
In the past two weeks, the Avian Flu removed close to 5 million birds from the food supply. Cases have been confirmed in 26 states so far. We're keeping an eye on the situation. Chicken production and pricing remain similar to past weeks. Middle meats are creeping higher in beef, and rounds, chucks, and grounds are coming down. Briskets have shot up as well. If you need beef, buy now. Pork bellies continue in bargain mode. Corn harvest is done with a record crop and pricing moving lower. Soy is holding steady and wheat has moved a little lower. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 08 Dec 2023 | Plenty of Corn to Go Around | 00:03:39 | |
We are in peak holiday season for beef pricing. Harvest was up this week but demand seems to have adjusted to the lower harvest numbers. Hopefully we'll see the market make some big changes after a couple of weeks. There were 13 new Avian Flu reports over the last week affecting 836,000 birds. None of this is good news as chicken flocks and turkeys are taking big hits. Pricing on chicken continues steady and chicken remains a good value in protein despite this unfortunate news. In pork, now is the time to buy bacon. Everything is priced nicely for pork to be a featured value protein. In grains, everything is looking good with good crops coming from the US, Europe, and Australia. In dairy, we can expect pricing to move up as the milk supply tightens. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 15 Dec 2023 | Last Call for Cheap Bellies? | 00:03:52 | |
Beef harvest continues strong through the peak holiday season. Middle meats are moving up again for next week which hopefully means there is nowhere to go but down from here. The value in beef is in rounds, chucks, and grinds. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 22 Dec 2023 | Beef Going out with a Bang | 00:03:15 | |
Beef harvest was up from last week. Middle meats, ribeyes, and tenderloins should see their peak prices before moving lower after the New Year. If you need rounds, chucks, and grinds, buy now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 29 Dec 2023 | Putting 2023 To Bed | 00:03:28 | |
The beef market is moving like it is the end of the year. Those high flying ribeye's and tenderloins will start to move lower come the first of the year and continue down typically to the end of January, maybe into early February. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 05 Jan 2024 | New Year, Same Drama | 00:03:36 | |
Happy New Year! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 12 Jan 2024 | Winter Weather Halts Beef Production | 00:03:39 | |
Bad winter weather in the Midwest had big effects on beef production. Two major packers idled plants completely and several were only running one shift. This will tighten availability. If you need middle meats, buy what you need. Other cuts will be better to buy sooner than later. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 19 Jan 2024 | Proteins on the Rise | 00:04:57 | |
Multiple storms in the Midwest have turned the beef market a little more quickly than expected. The decline in the middle meats should last one more week. We'll most likely see increases in the last week of January. Next week is the time to buy middle meats, everything else is buy it now, it will cost more money later. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 26 Jan 2024 | Beef and Pork Bounce Back | 00:03:36 | |
Beef production recovered nicely after the winter storm disruptions. Packers pushed pricing up pretty quickly, but this doesn't seem sustainable into February. The quick rise prices should move lower towards the end of the month, with middle meats being an exception as they have already bottomed out. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 02 Feb 2024 | Can Corn Go Even Lower? | 00:04:26 | |
Starting with grains this week, corn is moving lower again and it's probably not done. This is good for everyone (except corn farmers). Soy and wheat are in the same mode. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||