Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez (Bilal Hafeez)

Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager. Prior to joining Flat Rock Global, Shiloh was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners, and Head of Structured Products at BDCA Advisor. During his 20-year career, Shiloh has worked for several CLO managers and invested over $1.5 billion in CLO securities. He is the author of the recently published ‘CLO Investing – With an Emphasis on CLO Equity & BB Notes’. This week's podcast covers everything to do with CLOs, from definitions throught to their evolution and performance in today's landscape.

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In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He’s currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.”. He’s an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. How poor public health investment has made the recession worse
2. Implications of the US’s diminished role on the global stage
3. Three reasons for the dollar’s coming decline
4. The problem with the lack of US savings
5. Why investment has been too low
6. The problem with Trump’s China policy
7. The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage
8. Likely Biden policies if he wins
9. Life after Wall Street

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I’ve come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style
2. Whether options are over-priced
3. The path of the dollar
4. Which companies and sectors will succeed in the COVID world
5. Which EM markets are most attractive
6. How to play China most effectively
7. Whether we should worry about central banks printing money
8. Why macro hedge funds have underperformed in recent years

Cameron Crise is a macro strategist at Bloomberg, where he writes the Macro Man column and posts on the Markets Live blog. Previously, he was a global macro portfolio manager at Graham Capital in Connecticut and Nylon Capital in London. Earlier in his career, he was a currency portfolio manager and economist for several European asset management firms and held a variety of foreign exchange roles at UBS. He is a graduate of Duke University with a degree in public policy studies and history. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Lessons from working at hedge funds. 2) Where are we in the US growth cycle? 3) Inflation path. 4) How high will the Fed hike? 5) Will bond yields reach new highs? 6) The problem with the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) programme. 7) Overnight moves in stock markets. 8) Chances of deeper equity correction. 9) Chances of larger financial crisis. 10) Thoughts on China and Europe. 11) Equity earnings. 12) Books mentioned: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), Market Wizards (Schwager) , Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Kindleberger) and Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor).

Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss:

1) Increased volatility in the business cycle. 2) How close are we to market crunch point. 3) Three most likely scenarios for the Fed, inflation, and recession. 4) Main street vs Wall Street liquidity. 5) How to understand money supply (M2). 6) How will bonds and equities perform? 7) Which EM markets will perform or not? 8) What typically happens to EM during recessions. 9) The chances of a China stimulus.

Niels is the Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe) which has a track record going back over 45 years. He has been in the managed futures business for over 30 years having held management positions in and started multiple CTA firms. He is most widely known for the Top Traders Unplugged podcast.

Alan is the Founder and CEO of Archive Capital – a boutique alternative investment research firm. Prior to founding Archive Capital, he was Managing Director and a member of the investment committee at Abbey Capital. In total, he has worked in the financial markets for over 25 years at hedge funds and investment banks as a CIO, hedge fund allocator, macro strategist, and technical analyst.

This week's podcast covers the evolution of types of trend-following strategies, the importance of diversification across markets, why trend performed poorly before COVID, and much more.

Karl is Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Mentor at Creative Destruction Labs (Said Business School, University of Oxford). He began his career at JPMorgan trading fixed income. In 1996, Karl oversaw Banco Santander's Global Asset-Liability activities in Madrid. In 2001, he returned to London as Global Head of FX for HSBC Asset Management. From 2003, he held Senior Portfolio Manager roles at Brevan Howard, UBS O'Connor, Deutsche Bank's Cross Asset Trading group. In 2012 he joined Barclays Bank Treasury in London as Head of Euro Liquidity Management. In 2017 he joined LPP, Local Pensions Partnership, where he managed the Fixed Income portfolio. In 2018, he was a Participant at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Karl holds two degrees; Physics from Imperial College, London and Molecular Biophysics from University College, University of Oxford. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Capital-ism vs income-ism. 2) The demographic problem. 3) Importance of the scientific method. 4) The end of mean reversion. 5) Investment uncertainty vs risk. 6) The risk of correlation changes. 7) How today’s crises are different to GFC. 8) A coming asset crisis. 9) Phase transitions. 10) Central bank, real economy and political regime changes. 11) What the performance of the 60:40 portfolio tells us. 12) Solving for lower future market returns. 13) Demographic – climate change – machine learning shocks. 14) The failure of factor investing. 15) Have a plan A, B and C. 16) Career risk. 17) Books mentioned: The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon), The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat (Sacks)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic.
2. Have we reached peak political polarization?
3. Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers?
4. Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency?
5. The recipe for being the top reserve currency.
6. The status of the Euro.
7. Why crypto will not topple the dollar.
8. The two key reforms for the international financial system.
9. Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)

Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers why the US Treasury market is fundamentally broken, the rise of HFT and algo trading, the diverges uses of Treasuries, and much more.

John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager. Prior to that, John was Chairman and CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund. Before that, John was a Senior Macro Proprietary Trader at Deutsche Bank and Senior Portfolio Manager at the highly successful $3bn Swiss Bank Currency Fund. John’s successful track record in both macro and currency only investing spans over 25 years. John has also collaborated with psychiatrist, trading coach, and best-selling author, Ari Kiev, which led to participation in writing his book, The Psychology of Risk: Mastering Market Uncertainty. This week's podcast covers: finding asymmetric returns, how to deal with losses, meta lessons from 2023, and much more.

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This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Yaneer’s January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis
2. Using complexity science to understand pandemics
3. The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero
4. The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases
5. Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa
6. The poor comparison to seasonal flu
7. The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns
8. Why the vaccine doesn’t mean countries should lift restrictions
9. How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis

David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank’s views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Why news media has become more politicised
2. The impact of globalization on inequality
3. What explains countries with high COVID cases
4. Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination
5. COVID to remain a factor in coming years
6. Return to stagflation
7. Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated
8. Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump
9. The fundamental shifts in US-China relations
10. China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do
11. Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)

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This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats.

In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue.
2. The unionization drive in the US.
3. A new global corporate tax accord.
4. The bullish case for Europe.
5. Germany in a post-Merkel world.
6. Biden’s differences to Obama.
7. Biden’s tougher stance on China than Trump.
8. Current market views on bonds and equities.

In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She’s a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner.

On the podcast, we discuss:

1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis
2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation
3. Not putting too much weight on weak employment data
4. Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive
5. Her view on the dollar and euro
6. The prospects of inflation.

Mike is the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global Asset Management. He has over 29 years of experience in investment management and is responsible for investment decisions, coaching, and strategic leadership. He has co-authored the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. Before his investment career, Mike played professional football. In this podcast, we discussed how to invest in different stages of the business cycle, whether valuations matter, the benefits of machine learning and much more. 

In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world’s leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades
2. The role of safe assets in this downtrend
3. Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds
4. Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities
5. Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control
6. Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates
7. US economic outlook
8. How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK
9. Germany vs rest in EU

Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she’s so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she’s worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021
2. The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID
3. Can inflation move higher?
4. How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy
5. The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation
6. Outlook on Germany and China
7. Timing the next big US bond sell-off
8. Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)

Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including ‘In Defense of Public Debt’ (Oxford University Press, 2021). In this podcast, we discuss the inflation regime, which central banks are most independent, whether Trump can influence the Fed, and much more. 

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In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Why data flows matter
2. Does the China government have access to all data in China
3. How Chinese companies push back on data requests
4. Are US tech firms helping the Chinese government?
5. The right approach for the US dealing with China tech/data issues
6. US companies need to manage US data better too
7. EU is creating global standards
8. EU is pushing back on US accessing European data
9. Will US election impact US-China tech war?

With the country in lockdown, we’ve decided to launch a podcast show to better reach our audience. In our inaugural episode, I speak to George Goncalves about the recent volatility in markets, what’s going in dollar cash markets, what the Fed can do and whether we could enter a depression.

I also review some of the pieces we’ve put out on Macro Hive over the past week including ones on tracking the COVID virus, the odds of a US recession, the importance of real yields and the possibility of stagflation.

Please subscribe to the show and spread the word!

Bilal

Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models. Before that, Henry served as Chief Digital Officer of Deutsche Bank, creating the blueprint for a digital challenger bank within Deutsche Bank. Previously, Henry was Chief Operating Officer and a member of the Management Board and Group Executive Committee at Deutsche Bank. This episode's podcast covers: dealing with the 2008 financial crisis, running a bank through the eyes of a COO, why European banks haven’t toppled US banks, and much more. 

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Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss current trends in Japan inflation, outlook on BoJ actions, comparison between Prime Minister Kishida and Abe, and much more.

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Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at  One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss:

1) The short-, medium- and long-term drivers of inflation. 2) Why near-term inflation could still rise even with growing recession fears. 3) Why changes in interest rates could matter more than the levels of interest rates. 4) How housing affects inflation. 5) Are there parallels to the 1970s? 6) Why inflation volatility matters. 7) Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? 8) Why the TIPs market may not give an accurate measure of long-term inflation. 9) The income potential of TIPs bonds. 10) The case of low inflation in Japan. 11) Books mentioned: Slouching Toward Utopia (DeLong), The Dawn of Everything (Graeber, Wengrow), Amusing Ourselves to Death (Postman).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:

Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation, comparison to Volker period, if the Fed has a framework, and how strong the Fed Board is. She further discussed why the US labour market is weaker than most think, why structural inflation is still low, why the US will enter a recession, unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War, and much more.

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s.
2. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets.
3. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023.
4. Fed will be in play sooner than expected.
5. Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints.
6. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling.
7. EM local markets appear mispriced.
8. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices.
9. UK in secular decline.
10. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).

J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s, he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette. This podcast covers what chaos theory is, what complexity science is, how economists model the economy, and much more. 

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Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas.
2. Path of renewables.
3. Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised?
4. Why clean tech is being highly valued.
5. The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals.
6. How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends.
7. The role of carbon capture and big energy companies.
8. Financing challenges in energy sector.
9. Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.

Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Her current research focuses on conceptual abstraction and analogy-making in artificial intelligence systems. Melanie is the author or editor of six books and numerous scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and complex systems. Her most recent book is entitled ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans’. This episode’s podcast covers: evolution of AI from cybernetics to neural networks and deep learning, how big (labelled) data helped AI, what intelligence is, and much more. 

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Tania Reif is Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge-funds including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel and Alphadyne Asset Management. She was profiled in the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds 2017 survey by The Hedge Fund Journal. Her career spans public policy beginnings at the International Monetary Fund and experience in the banking industry at Citgroup’s Economic and Market Analysis team. She holds a PhD in Economics with Distinction from Columbia University where she earned the Jagdish Bhagwati International Economics Award for her work in currency dynamics. In this podcast we discuss:

Lessons learned from macro investing, why you should leave macro for crypto, what drives crypto prices, and understanding the unique aspects of crypto. She also talks about crypto valuations, what the crypto market cap tells us, where yields come from in DeFi, the future of the metaverse, and lessons in launching a crypto fund.

Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss w hy the Fed still needs to hike rates, the importance of US fiscal and industrial policy, understanding US housing, and much more.

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Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about what will cause a recession, surprise factory building, view on Euro-area and UK, and much more.

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In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry
2. How to design good trading models.
3. Avoiding data mining
4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded
5. Why trend-following models have underperformed
6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows
7. Importance of reducing transaction costs
8. Types of alternative data
9. How to use news data
10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data
11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel

Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of ‘Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A’. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic’s Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss:

1. Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals
2. Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals
3. Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA)
4. Examples of US vetoes
5. Will Biden change CFIUS approach?
6. How data is new front for regulating foreign investment
7. The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation
8. Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A
9. Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)

Shannon O'Neil is the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on global trade, supply chains, Mexico, Latin America, and democracy. 

• Did globalisation increase that much in the past? 
• Japan’s important role 
• Why South America didn’t regionalise 

Corey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss:

1. How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve
2. How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors
3. The importance of passive investing as marginal flow into assets
4. The impact of passive on how trades are executed
5. The procyclicality of HFT liquidity provision
6. How dealers hedging magnifies volatility shifts
7. The prevalence of volatility contingent strategies in markets
8. When do liquidity cascades end
9. How to position of liquidity cascades
10. Books that influenced Corey: Fooled by Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Red-Blooded Risk (Aaron Brown)

Ari Paul is co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. BlockTower is a crypto and blockchain investment firm, applying professional trading, investing and portfolio management to this digital asset class. It is funded by well-known investors such as A16z and Union Square Ventures.

Before BlockTower, Ari was a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group (SIG). In this podcast we discuss:

1. How to value bitcoin
2. Understanding drivers of crypto markets
3. What flows have driven crypto in recent years?
4. Business for exchanges like UniSwap
5. The real benefit of crypto is co-ordination power
6. Trends in layer one protocols like Ethereum and Solana
7. Will switch to Proof of Stake make a difference?
8. What stage of hype cycle are Metaverse and DeFi tokens?
9. Risk is about sizing positions
10. Books/articles that influenced Ari: Money, blockchains, and social scalability (Nick Szabo), Shelling Out: The Origin Of Money (Szabo), Debt: The First 5000 Years (Graeber)

Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. He co-founded conflictforecast.org and has conducted projects for Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the German Foreign Office, and the IMF. He’s also listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years. This episode's podcast covers: the hard problem of predicting conflicts, defining conflicts: wars, civil wars, terrorism, whether the theory of conflict match reality, and much more. 

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Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School. In this podcast we discuss how to play US elections, short- and long-term impacts of a Trump or Harris win, why US economy is doing well, and much more. 

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Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.

Mark Stanwyck is the Co-Founder of Avalaunch - the first protocol, exclusively for the Avalanche ecosystem, to offer projects a platform for decentralized fundraising. Rick Seeger is the Co-Founder of Oh! Finance - an optimized yield-generation protocol. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Comparison of layer one protocols from Ethereum to Avalanche
2. Use cases in crypto
3. How GameFi works
4. How traditional gaming companies respond to GameFi
5. Ways in which DeFi offers high yields
6. What the criteria are to determine the risk of DeFi yields
7. Whether Coinbase and other centralised exchanges impact DeFi
8. How fundraising works in crypto
9. Comparisons of VC vs decentralised user-driven fundraising
10. Books that influenced Mark and Rick: The History of Money (Weatherford) and The Compound Effect (Hardy)

Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The implications of a tri-polar world.
2. The biggest boom is underway..
3. Which asset classes will perform in this new regime.
4. The problem with a 60:40 portfolio.
5. How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform.
6. Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber.
7. The Biden revolution that everyone is missing.
8. Why rising rates won’t hurt stocks.
9. Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY).
10. How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US.
11. Why US-China risks are overstated.
12. Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)

Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. Bob holds a degree in History and Science from Harvard. In this podcast we discuss income business cycle rather than credit cycle, parallels to 1950s and 1960s, whether Fed policy is restrictive, and much more. 

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This episode is sponsored by Amber Group

Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $18bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and over the last 28 years has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment industry, including five years (1989 to 1993) as President and Chief Executive Officer of John W. Henry & Company, Inc. and seven years (1982 to 1989) as Senior Vice President and Director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. In this podcast we discuss the early days of macro and CTA trading, influence of Paul Tudor Jones, the challenge of trading 2011-2021, and much more.

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Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. In this podcast we discuss: the lasting impact on work practises after the COVID lockdowns, why productivity been weak in recent decades, understanding digital goods and intangible assets, and much more.

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Dr. Anas Alhajji is a leading energy markets expert, and advises governments, companies, and financial institutions on energy markets. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy. He is the Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, and was previously the Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He is also a contributing editor for top industry publication: World Oil. Before moving to industry, Anas taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines and Ohio Northern University. In this podcast we discuss:

1. False ideas around what drives oil prices
2. What supply and demand drivers matter
3. Why OPEC doesn’t matter
4. Why peak oil is wrong
5. Why bearish oil demand forecasts on ESG/climate change are wrong
6. How governments and companies are not acting on carbon neutrality
7. How Iran oil supply has continued despite sanctions
8. Oil underinvestment in oil producing nations
9. Saudi, US and Russian oil supply outlook
10. The Arctic oil play
11. China’s dominance in oil markets
12. The rise of private generators
13. Book that Anas rates: Kuwait in the Time of British Empire (Khajah)

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry
2. How to design good trading models
3. Avoiding data mining
4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded
5. Why trend-following models have underperformed
6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows
7. Importance of reducing transaction costs
8. Types of alternative data
9. How to use news data
10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data
11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel

With everyone taking a well-deserved break over the holiday season, we decided to dig through our archives to bring you our most-listened-to podcast of 2022. Back in July, we interviewed Ivy Zelman – best known for calling the top of the housing market in 2005. Turns out, she had an extremely prescient call to make in our interview too... Enjoy! 

Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’ Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors - America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss: 

• How COVID impacted housing 
• Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices 
• Why housing demand is falling 

Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis.
2. The centrality of listed derivatives.
3. Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important.
4. How complexity of strategies doesn’t give you an edge.
5. Do short vol strategies work?
6. How to manage convexity and tail risk.
7. Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge?
8. What risks are investors focusing on since COVID?
9. Common mistakes by quants.
10. Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).

Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity derivatives trading following the acquisition of Salomon Brothers, where he began his career. His expertise spans fixed income, equities, FX, credit, and derivatives strategies, including relative value and volatility arbitrage trading. This podcast covers lessons learned during his time at Saloman Brothers and Brevan Howard, experience of trading before the GFC, thoughts on the US economy – growth, inflation and tariffs, and much more. 

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This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four ‘Great Offices Of State’ in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. How has the UK handled the pandemic so far?
2. The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes
3. How pandemic shocks differ from wars
4. Why inflation could pick up
5. The importance of climate change and the UK track record
6. Results of the UK’s Integrated Review and centrality of climate change
7. Why biodiversity also matters
8. Will UK parliament’s unanimous support for climate change policy continue?
9. UK’s global role in a post-Brexit world
10. New measures to attract international talent to UK
11. Possible future global alliances

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss:

Why Timothy has been expecting a larger conflict since 2015, western exposure to Russia and ESG, Putin’s motivations, and why NATO expansion is not the core issue. He also talked about the scale of the sanctions, chances of regime change in Russia, why the conflict won’t end soon, how China fits into the picture, and why this is a globally systemic event.

Rolf Strauch is Chief Economist and Management Board Member of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which he joined in July 2010. These entities provide financial assistance to euro-area countries experiencing financing problems. Rolf represents the ESM and EFSF in European fora and negotiates with Member States. Prior to this, Mr Strauch worked at the European Central Bank from 2000–2010 and served previously as an economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank. In this podcast we discuss:

1. How successful were the European rescue packages during the euro sovereign crisis?
2. How did the economic policy response to COVID of Europe compare to the US?
3. How the ESM is changing
4. Outlook around Europe’s Next Generation EU stimulus
5. The growth of the common EU bonds and green bonds
6. How advanced is Europe’s banking union?
7. Can Europe’s capital markets grow to US levels?
8. Impact of Brexit on EU institutions
9. Euro-area growth outlook
10. Recommended books: The Globotics Upheaval (Baldwin)

Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss how financial institutions manage mortgages on their books, what triggered sub-prime/global financial crisis, why households and mortgage markets are safer today than 2008, and much more.

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Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: Why understanding perception, judgment and decision-making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, the role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them, and the difference between emotions and impulse. She further discussed how to understand conviction levels, using intuition over impulse, how to incorporate emotions into your dataset, traits of successful traders, and how to set up a hedge fund. On the more personal side she revealed the books that influenced her the most: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Diego is Managing Partner at $1.8b Quadriga Asset Managers. Prior to joining Quadriga in Madrid in 2017, Diego worked in London, New York, and Singapore for two decades and held senior leadership roles across macro commodity markets at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, BlueCrest Capital, Dymon Asia, and Old Mutual Global Investors. Diego is best-selling co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat’ (Wiley, 2014) and author of ‘The Anti-Bubbles’ (BEP, 2017).  Diego has a MS Mineral Economics from Colorado School of Mines, MS Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, and MS Mining and Petroleum Engineering by the Madrid Polytechnic School of Mines. In this podcast we discuss the definition of an ‘anti-bubble’, why inflation is higher than you think, the right asset allocation for stagflation, and much more.

Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed:

1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).

In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss:

1. What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response
2. How the Fed is losing independence
3. The advantages of price level and average inflation rate targeting
4. Why nominal GDP/income targeting is the best approach
5. What has caused the 30y decline in US rates
6. How the Fed should be reformed
7. Books that influenced David: Secrets of the Temple and Less Than Zero

Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. He works regularly with Members of Congress and their staffs on budget-related issues. In this podcast we discuss: the scale of US debt and deficit, how COVID impacted spending, trends in healthcare, social security spending, and taxes, and much more.

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Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of ‘Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System?’ and ‘Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions’. In this podcast we discuss US-China tensions in run-up to Trump 2.0, Xi Jinping’s worldview and generational trauma, the strategic logic behind China’s limited retaliation, and much more. 

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Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss impact of Trump on markets, Fed’s likely path, US growth and credit expansion, and much more. 

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Stephen is a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China and most recently Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. In this podcast we discuss the problem with US savings, w hy Biden continues Trump policies,   China’s failed rebalancing, and much more. 

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This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more.

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Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: the biggest surprises of 2023, why covering oil and China is important, understanding the drivers of US growth, and much more.

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Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about the impact of US sectoral shocks, hard landing risks, European growth outlook, and much more.

Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. Bob holds a degree in History and Science from Harvard. In this podcast we discuss lessons learned at Bridgewater, what’s driving inflation, why Fed hikes are not working, benefits of diversification, and much more. 

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This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia.
2. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text).
3. The pros and cons of using linear regressions.
4. The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets.
5. How to think about alternative and big data.
6. Portfolio construction and combining signals.
7. The importance of incorporating costs.
8. Understanding time horizons of different markets.
9. The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors.
10. Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special.
11. Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn).

You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here

Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School’s Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.

The US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss:

1. The parallel Presidencies of 1876
2. The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon
3. What pollsters missed
4. Were the Democrats too left or not left enough?
5. How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms
6. The return of state rights over central government
7. How a divided congress shifts power to the President and the Supreme Court
8. The profound importance of the Republicans winning State legislatures
9. Thoughts on a Georgia Senate run-off

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies.  He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19.  In this podcast we discuss:

1. Current vaccine trials
2. Absence of COVID-19 reinfections
3. Why is vaccine development faster than before
4. Low mutability of COVID-19
5. Symptoms of COVID-19
6. Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates
7. Why are elderly being affected the most
8. Views on the Sweden approach
9. Why is the US death rate not higher
10. Policy recommendation

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Former Prime Minister Abe’s legacy in Japan. 2) The long-term impact of COVID on the global economy. 3) The demise of capitalism. 4) Why nominal GDP targeting is better than inflation targeting. 5) Measuring financial stress and why it is rising. 6) Which other countries are ‘Japanising’. 7) The current state of Japanese growth. 8) How high can Japanese inflation go? 9) Will the BoJ exit yield curve control (YCC)? 10) Is a weak yen a problem for Japan? 11) What drives Japanese bond yields. 12) Books that influenced Matsuoka-San: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as ‘Citigroup's last proprietary trader’. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund
2. Framework used to invest in markets
3. How to use flow information to validate views
4. The value of machine learning
5. How to identify market regime changes
6. The impact of risk transfers on market volatility
7. How bubbles can be rational
8. The difference between high-frequency trading and macro
9. Views on the current reflation theme
10. Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling
11. Market to watch - yen
12. Views on crypto markets
13. Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)

Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests – an investment firm that focuses on the publicly traded oil and gas sector. He has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. Josh became Chairman of the Board of RMP Energy in 2017. After refreshing the board and management team and rebranding the company (Iron Bridge Resources), it was bought out at a 78% premium in 2018.  Before this, Josh was a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms, and then an investment analyst at a private equity fund. Josh worked as an energy investment analyst for a multi-billion-dollar, single family office. In this podcast we discuss:

Understanding the energy sector, the cost of drilling, impact of ESG on the energy sector, and why oil input isn’t higher. He also discussed the structural supply issues for the energy sector, the investment needs to maintain supply, the regulatory pressures on supply, if the Middle East can step up supply, and the best to get exposure to energy. On a more personal note he also revealed the books that influenced him the most: The First Billion Is the Hardest (Pickens) and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time (Einhorn).

Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss: the market being too focused on rate cuts, the importance of the new fiscal regime, inflation risks, and much more. 

Charts mentioned can be found here: https://macrohive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Gallo-charts.pdf

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Gary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss:

1. How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy
2. How Biden could continue Trump’s protectionist policies
3. US climate-change related immigration challenges
4. Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration
5. How Trump’s break from democratic norms is unprecedented
6. How Trump differs from Richard Nixon and Andrew Jackson
7. When was the last time the US was as polarised as today
8. The challenges of a Biden administration

John Butler has 25 years’ experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book ‘The Golden Revolution’. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. Why stagflation is here
2. The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans
3. The moral hazard of Fed policy
4. Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis?
5. The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s
6. How to play a stagflation theme
7. Is there a commodity supercycle?
8. The future path of gold
9. Why bitcoin won’t replace the dollar (or gold)
10. The importance of risk management
11. Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)

Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. How to think about the Fed’s new framework.
2. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener!
3. Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time.
4. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength.
5. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade.
6. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates.
7. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated.
8. Are equities expensive?
9. Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work?
10. Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The unpopularity of Germany’s governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet.
2. Laschet’s support for the coal industry.
3. The popularity of sister party CSU’s leader Söder and his new economy focus.
4. The possibility of a CDU and CSU split.
5. Why are Greens so popular in Germany?
6. The fiscal implications of Greens in power.
7. Germany’s constitutional constraints on fiscal policy.
8. Why far-right AfD has performed poorly recently.
9. The mismanagement of COVID and the political impact.
10. Does the EU Recovery Fund signal a common EU fiscal policy?
11. Will EU climate policy be successful?
12. Book that influenced Wolfgang: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Democracy (Mommsen), Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (MacMillan).

In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve’s 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She’s a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author of the textbook, Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance. In this podcast we discuss:

1. Importance of the knowledge economy
2. How alternatives to rational expectation models need to be used when dealing with tail events
3. The critical role of the reactions and belief scarring from events like pandemics
4. Why the long-term costs of COVID will be ten times larger than the current year costs
5. How safe haven assets will be in even more demand, which will keep rates low
6. The role of data accumulation in economies
7. The limits of big data
8. A book that influenced Laura: Guns, Germs and Steel

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about:

• Valuation frameworks for gold
• The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold
• The insurance properties of gold
• How gold behaves around regime changes in political and monetary systems
• Comparisons between gold and bitcoin
• Projections for gold in the next few years.

It’s a great discussion, so please enjoy.

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output
2. COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution
3. Why haven’t real wages risen?
4. Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity?
5. Why inflation won’t rise meaningfully
6. The pros and cons of MMT
7. The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund
8. Germany’s U-turn on frugality
9. The transition challenges of Brexit
10. China’s pressure cooker and India’s steady release
11. Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence.
2. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending?
3. The best Europe trade.
4. Which yields matter for EM.
5. How important is China’s deleveraging goals?
6. Where next for Chinese currency and bonds?
7. Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy.
8. Machine learning vs regressions.
9. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky).
10. Current market views on bonds and equities.

This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (Supernormal - AI That Writes Your Meeting Notes/https://supernormal.com/).

Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relationship between culture and economic performance. He is the author of several books, most recently ‘How the World Became Rich’ with Jared Rubin. This podcast covers: how to measure prosperity today and in the past, whether geography makes some nations richer than others, landlocked countries, Islamic empire, Mongol invasion, and much more. 

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Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College. His eight award-winning books include ‘Stalin's War: A New History of World War’. His latest book is ‘To Overthrow the World: The Rise and Fall and Rise of Communism’. In this podcast we discuss the early roots of Communism, Karl Marx and political violence, Lenin and how to seize power, and much more. 

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Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and their impact on equity, fixed income and exchange rate markets. This podcast covers new approaches to understand exchange rate drivers, how lagged macro news impacts markets, investor holdings and asset prices, and much more. 

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This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (https://supernormal.com/).

Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister’s Business Council. He has been ranked #1 on Business Insider’s UK Tech 100 and named as one of the ‘Top 100 entrepreneurs in the UK’ by the Financial Times. He is the author of the best-selling book ‘How AI Thinks’. This podcast covers: comparing chips: CPU vs GPU vs IPU, data vs information, big data and neural networks, and much more. 

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This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He’s a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He’s also recently published an excellent new book called “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner′s Guide”.  In this podcast we discuss:

1. How markets treated the US election like an EM election
2. Impact of Biden’s win on major EM
3. Why EM does well with the vaccine breakthroughs
4. Which EM will do best in post-COVID world
5. Will EM inflation pick up?
6. Can EM survive higher US rates?
7. Is China a good long-term buy?
8. Should we be worried about Brazil’s fiscal numbers?
9. How much does EM depend on global factors?
10. Trading rules for EM markets
11. Books that influenced Dirk: Market Wizards, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss:

1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.

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Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur
2. The positive history of psychedelics
3. The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health
4. Classifying ageing as a disease
5. Breakthroughs in longevity medicine
6. Why healthcare systems are so costly
7. How money printing is reshaping the economy
8. The transition from linear growth to exponential growth
9. The US-China rivalry
10. The future of crypto currencies
11. What to know about space tech
12. Why invest in movies
13. Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan)
14. Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)

Greg is a Special Writer at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine. The book has been optioned by HBO for a series from Academy Award winning director Adam McKay. Greg is also the author of the bestseller: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. In this podcast we discuss:

Why Big Pharma did not develop the COVID vaccine, how the vaccine was developed so quickly, key players in vaccine development, and what mRNA and adenovirus vaccines are. Greg also gave his views on the outlook of vaccine breakthroughs for other diseases, what made Jim Simons the top investor of all-time, and the importance of culture. On a personal note, Greg shared the books that influenced him most: Den of Thieves (Stewart) , Liar’s Poker (Lewis), Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough) and Indecent Exposure (McClintick).

Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. This podcast covers: whether US fiscal policy worked and whether it caused inflation, the main causes of inflation, why there is no wage-cost inflation, and much more. 

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Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income research at Fidelity Management and Research. He was assistant professor of finance at the University of Houston and is an associate editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments. In this podcast we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, risk vs uncertainty, challenges of trading models, and much more. 

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