Lowy Institute (Lowy Institute)

On Monday 10 February, the Lowy Institute hosted a panel event at State Library Victoria to discuss the key issues likely to dominate the international agenda in 2025.

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The Trump administration kicks off 2025 with a mandate for political and economic change. An Australian federal election looms. Russia’s war in Ukraine, an uneasy Middle East, and America’s contest with China will continue to dominate international headlines.

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Our expert panel included Jennifer Hewett, National Affairs columnist for the Australian Financial Review; Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute’s international affairs magazine, The Interpreter; and Lydia Khalil, Director of the Institute’s Transnational Challenges Program. The event will be chaired by Sam Roggeveen, Director of our International Security Program.

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Monday 16 September 2024‍

Indonesia is in the countdown to the October presidential transition from Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to Prabowo Subianto, who won a decisive victory in the April presidential election. Hugely ambitious and popular, Jokowi leaves a complex legacy, including strained democratic institutions, the politicisation of the police and military, and an at times transactional foreign policy that benefited China’s standing.

The panel drew on perspectives presented at the 2024 Australian National University Indonesia Update conference to explore the legacy of Jokowi’s presidency and the direction that Prabowo may now seek to steer Indonesia.

Eve Warburton is a senior lecturer at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, and Director of ANU's Indonesia Institute at the College of Asia and the Pacific. Her research is concerned broadly with problems of representation, governance, and business-state relations, in young and developing democracies, with a regional focus on Southeast Asia and Indonesia in particular. She has published in leading disciplinary and area studies journals on these topics, and her first book manuscript, Resource Nationalism in Indonesia: Booms, Big Business and the State, was published by Cornell University Press in late 2023.

Sidney Jones is Senior Adviser to the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta, a non-governmental research organization she founded in 2013. She served as director from 2013 to 2021, when she returned to New York. From 2002 to 2013, Jones worked with the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, first as Southeast Asia project director, then from 2007 as senior adviser to the Asia program. Before joining Crisis Group, she worked for the Ford Foundation in Jakarta and New York (1977-84); Amnesty International in London as the Indonesia-Philippines-Pacific researcher (1985-88); and Human Rights Watch in New York as the Asia director (1989-2002). She took a leave from the latter position in 2000 to serve as chief of the human rights office of the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). Jones holds a B.A. and M.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.

Marcus Mietzner is Associate Professor at the Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University in Canberra. He has published extensively on Indonesian politics, including in peer-reviewed international journals such as Democratization, International Political Science Review, Governance, Journal of Democracy, Contemporary Politics, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Journal of Contemporary Asia and Critical Asian Studies. His latest book is "The Coalitions Presidents Make: Presidential Power and its Limits in Democratic Indonesia" (Cornell University Press, 2023). He is currently writing a book on the Jokowi presidency, based on a series of interviews with the outgoing president and other key actors.

Rizal Sukma is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. Previously, he was Indonesia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Ireland and the International Maritime Organization (IMO), London, from 2016 to 2020. He joined CSIS in 1990 as a researcher and assumed the role of Executive Director in 2009 until 2015. Dr Sukma also served as Chairman of International Relations, Muhammadiyah Central Executive Board (2005-2015). Since receiving a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in 1997, he has worked extensively on such issues as Southeast Asian security, ASEAN, Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy, military reform, Islam and politics, and domestic political changes in Indonesia.

The panel was moderated by Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.

All Lowy Institute public events are on the record and open for media attendance.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Australia’s Governor-General, His Excellency David Hurley. Mr Hurley joined the Australian Army in January 1972, graduating from the Royal Military College, Duntroon into the Royal Australian Infantry Corps. His military service culminated with his appointment as Chief of the Defence Force from 2011 to 2014. After serving as CDF, His Excellency was appointed Governor of NSW and then, in 2019, Governor-General of Australia.

The Governor-General reflects on his career as an officer in the Australian Army and discusses some of his overseas deployments to the United Kingdom, Somalia, and Malaysia. He looks back at Australia’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and talks about his experience representing the Australian community overseas as a vice regal representative and his work with Indigenous communities.

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Progress depends on many choices, notably the ones we make about technology. The way in which we structure production and communication can either cater to the exclusive interests of a privileged few or lay the groundwork for widespread prosperity.

In this episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant, the Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with economist and author Daron Acemoglu of MIT about the challenge of shared prosperity and the policies that could bring about a more inclusive economy. They discuss the role institutions have in ensuring technologies benefit all, how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can reduce the gap between emerging and developed economies, and the role of foreign aid as a tool to reduce poverty. These are just a few of the topics covered in this wide-ranging discussion.

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In this episode of Pacific Change Makers, Dr Meg Keen speaks with Sharon Bhagwan-Rolls in Suva, Fiji about social activism in the Pacific.

Sharon is the Regional Representative of the Shifting the Power Coalition, a Pacific Island feminist coalition working on challenges affecting the region's future including climate change, social justice, and gender and community equality.

She speaks with Meg about how her family and faith have motivated her to make a difference. They discuss how women and marginalised groups can be more prominent voices in society - in political settings but also in media, community and key social groups. Sharon works in professional and community networks to hold power accountable, deliver local solutions, and promote appropriate technology to build resilience.

Sharon Bhagwan-Rolls is a Pacific Island feminist working on the intersection of gender, media, climate change and peace. From Fiji, she serves as the regional representative of the Shifting the Power Coalition, a team of women leaders and networks across Pacific Island Forum countries: Australia, Bougainville, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu – with a network of close to 100,000 grassroots members. In 2000, she co-founded FemLINKpacific and developed it into a leading community organisation supporting women's networking, media and research.

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Aus-PNG Network Leadership Series: Music in PNG

In this episode, Mihai Sora is joined by Allen Kedea, also known by his stage name AKay47, to discuss the music scene in Papua New Guinea, and the role that music can play in empowering young people and building stronger connections between Papua New Guinea and Australia.

Papua New Guinea has lot of natural resources, but there is growing recognition from government leaders and in the community that the creative economy also needs to be developed.

“I think music is at the forefront of that,” says Allen. In Papua New Guinea, “everything we do incorporates music culturally, traditionally, it’s a part of a person from the moment you’re born, to when you attend funerals, marriages, when someone’s out gardening or fishing, it’s just a natural part of us…music is an extension of Papua New Guineans.”

Allen says, “I would just encourage our young people to use what’s there, the technology is there…Appreciate where you come from, tell the story that you that you can tell from your own little village, from your own island, because I believe that the world is looking for those unique stories. Now.”

Allen Kedea, also known by his stage name AKay47, is a DJ, artist, producer, record label owner, music judge, creative in the advertising realm, crypto enthusiast and emerging leader. With over 20 years experience in the music industry Allen has helped setup the Central Music Association in Papua New Guinea as the Interim President and is about to launch a new music streaming service in PNG.

Mihai Sora is the Project Director of the Australia-Papua New Guinea Network at the Lowy Institute. Mihai’s research focuses on Australian foreign policy in the Pacific, Australia-PNG relations, and geopolitics in the region. Mihai has more than a decade’s experience as an Australian diplomat with postings to Solomon Islands and Indonesia, and was a Pacific Analyst at the Office of National Assessments.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Re-Cast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2024. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Re-Cast series has you covered.

In this episode of The Director’s Chair, the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by UK Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

They discuss David Lammy’s journey from cathedral chorister to the House of Commons, what kind of prime minister Keir Starmer would make, foreign policy under a Labour government, the UK’s relationship with Europe, China and the United States, how he was influenced by the revered West Indies cricket team of the 1970s, and how Australian manager Ange Postecoglou has influenced his beloved Tottenham Hotspur.

The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/

Twitter:
@LowyInstitute
@mfullilove
@DavidLammy

Host: Michael Fullilove 
Producers: Josh Goding and Andrew Griffits 
Research: David Vallance

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, Mike Pezzullo. Mike Pezzullo is a lifelong official, described recently as ‘one of Australia’s most powerful public servants’. He has been a trusted adviser to both Labor and Coalition governments, the author of a Defence White Paper, and the prime mover behind a major restructure of Australia’s domestic security apparatus. He has been a senior staffer in both government and opposition as well as a public servant in the departments of Defence, Immigration and Customs, and Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Michael and Mike reflect on Mike’s childhood in southern Sydney and discuss China, cybersecurity, Australia’s response to COVID, evolution of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, and Australian foreign policy.

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First Nations peoples were Australia’s original diplomats and traders. In recent years, the Australian government has sought to embed First Nations perspectives, experiences and interests into Australia’s foreign policy. Yet after the loss in the referendum to create a Voice to Parliament, there are questions about how to further these efforts. In this episode of Conversations, Lowy Institute First Nations Fellow Laura Salt speaks with Professor Megan Davis about the way forward for Australia’s First Nations foreign policy. Professor Davis is a constitutional law expert, international human rights lawyer, and one of the architects of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

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In this episode, we delve into the United Nations Loss and Damage Fund, the most concrete effort to address restitution for those impacted by climate change. As the recently appointed board begins crafting a global fund to financially support climate victims, much remains unresolved, including complex questions about who is eligible for money and how they can access it, how to quantify intangible impacts such as the loss of traditional knowledge, and how the Fund itself can raise enough resources to cover escalating costs. To explore these questions, Alexandre Dayant, Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with IPDC climate experts Dr Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley, who recently authored a Lowy Institute Policy Brief outlining recommendations for the Fund’s structure.

You can access the Policy Brief here: A climate loss and damage fund that works

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Senator Penny Wong, the Shadow Foreign Minister and Leader of the Opposition in the Senate. Penny was elected to the Senate in 2001 and was appointed to Shadow Cabinet in 2005. She served as Climate Change Minister between 2007 and 2010 and as Finance Minister between 2010 and 2013.

Michael and Penny discuss the politics of climate change in Australia, the AUKUS pact, and the findings of the Lowy Institute’s Diplomat Database. Penny reflects on her upbringing, Labor’s priorities for the region, and the current state of the Australia-China relationship.

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Cathy Neap, Country Manager for the National Rugby League in Papua New Guinea, speaks with Dr Jessica Collins, Project Director of the Australia–Papua New Guinea Network.

Cathy shares her experience as a change maker — what drives her, the challenges she faced, and how she views the Australia–PNG relationship. Reflecting on PNG’s half-century of independence this year, Cathy also shares her vision of what the next 50 years might look like in terms of development and women.

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In this episode of Conversations, Director of the Southeast Asia Program Susannah Patton talks with Thomas Parks, author of the recently published book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold Warabout how Southeast Asian countries are navigating growing US-China rivalry and the roles of the region’s diverse external partners, including Japan, Australia and India. Parks is optimistic about the future of the region, but also highlights emerging risks that could threaten Southeast Asian countries’ ability to remain non-aligned and open to all partners.

Thomas Parks has led research and managed aid programs across Southeast Asia with The Asia Foundation and the Australian government (DFAT) on geopolitics, security cooperation, ASEAN, economic development, conflict and governance. He is a graduate of Harvard and Johns Hopkins SAIS. His new book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future, is published by Bloomsbury.

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Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant leads the world’s first government regulatory agency committed to keeping its citizens safer online. While her appointment is domestic, the internet is global. In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute’s Lydia Khalil talks with Inman Grant about what she learned from her previous experience working in the tech industry, how to regulate it, global efforts to coordinate online safety, particularly around AI, and the geopolitics of tech regulation.

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Dr Benjamin Herscovitch at ANU and the Lowy Institute’s Hervé Lemahieu discuss the growing global support for China’s efforts to bring Taiwan under its control, potentially via the use of force. As diplomatic stances on Taiwan become more contested and consequential, the Lowy Institute has published a world-first dataset detailing every UN member state’s position on the governments in Taipei and Beijing. The Data Snapshot offers an original framework for understanding the state of international diplomacy on Taiwan’s status: https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/one-china-contest-to-define-taiwan/

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Evan Osnos, the award-winning journalist, author and staff writer for The New Yorker. In 2014 he published a book on China, Age of Ambition, which won the National Book Award. Evan recently released an insightful and highly readable biography of the President-elect, Joe Biden: American Dreamer.

Michael and Evan discuss Joe Biden’s first presidential campaign in 1988, his record as Barack Obama’s Vice President, and analyse the team he will take into government. Evan provides insight into Biden’s relationship with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, his love for ‘the connect’, and the approach that President Biden will take to China and the world.

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Since his election, foreign policy coverage has been dominated by US President Donald Trump. But there is a lot more going on in the world than Trump 2.0. Many important global developments are not getting the attention they deserve. The Lowy Institute’s Lydia Khalil and Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of The Interpreter, highlight the stories you might have missed.  

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Frances Adamson. Over the course of her career, Frances has represented Australia’s interests in Europe and Asia and advised foreign ministers and prime ministers.

Michael and Frances discuss relations with China, recent events in Myanmar, and how DFAT is helping Australians abroad during the pandemic. Frances reflects on why she joined DFAT, nominates Australian and foreign leaders who have impressed her, and talks about the distinctiveness of Australian diplomacy.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Brookings Institution scholar, and former Russia adviser to President Donald Trump, Dr Fiona Hill.

Fiona is one of the world’s leading Russia experts. She has worked in the US government under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and then served for two years in the Trump Administration. At the end of 2019, Fiona became world-famous following her testimony in the impeachment hearings into Donald Trump’s presidency.

Michael and Fiona reflect on Fiona's journey from County Durham in northern England to the corridors of the White House in Washington DC, and discuss the British class system, the US foreign policy establishment, American partisan politics, US-Russia relations, and Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin.

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As we usher in the new year, the global economy is at a turning point. From confronting an economic development crisis and addressing the good-jobs dilemma, to navigating the climate transition and charting a course towards a more sustainable and equitable form of globalisation, 2024 promises to be an interesting year.

In this episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant, the Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with Harvard professor and economist Dani Rodrik about the challenges of globalisation and the intensification of geopolitics on the global economy.

They discuss the role of redistributive domestic policies, the impact of US–China competition on the delivery of global public goods, and the risk of breakdown of the multilateral trade system. These are just a few of the topics covered in this wide-ranging conversation.

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Over the past decade, there has been more emphasis on gender in foreign policy and national security. What does this mean? Should foreign policy be a vehicle for the promotion of gender equality and how is that in Australia’s interest? How are women in foreign policy and national security leadership positions making an impact on the world stage? And are we witnessing a global backlash against women’s rights?

To mark International Womens Day the Lowy Institute hosted this event featuring researchers Jennifer Hsu, Jessica Collins and Meg Keen for a conversation chaired by Lydia Khalil to discuss these issues and offer their perspectives as women working in the field.

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In this podcast Dr Meg Keen speaks with Solomon Islands’ opposition MP Peter Kenilorea about the challenges ahead as the country gears up to host the Pacific Games and face an election early next year.  Peter shares his thoughts on domestic security, slow economic growth, geopolitics and Solomon Islands-China relations: “My biggest fear is to be so dependent on one partner … you’re at their whim”. He reflects on the high expectations from his electorate and pressing social issues such as delivering education and opportunities for youth.

Peter Kenilorea Jr is the member for East Are’Are in the Solomon Islands parliament. He was elected to Parliament in 2019 after working in senior posts at the United Nations, the Solomon Islands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in legal practice. His father, Sir Peter Kenilorea, was Solomon Islands’ first Prime Minister after independence.

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In this episode of Pacific Change Makers, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands Program Dr Jess Collins speaks with Dame Annette King about her role as New Zealand’s High Commissioner to Australia.

At the end of last year and with just a few weeks left in the role, Dame Annette sat down with Dr Collins in Canberra to reflect on her five-year term as High Commissioner to Australia — a post she considers one of New Zealand’s most important.

As Dame Annette notes, “Australia and New Zealand — there are no two closer countries on the planet.”

They discussed Dame Anette’s priorities for the Trans-Tasman arrangement, building the family-like relationship with Australia, the Australia–Tuvalu deal, New Zealand’s unique and strong relationship with the Pacific, and her country’s relationship with China amid growing tensions in the region.

In a wide-ranging discussion, they also touched on the Lowy Institute Poll, the war in Ukraine, New Zealand movies, cheese pies, and sport.

Dame Annette King commenced duties as the New Zealand High Commissioner to Australia in December 2018 and concluded her assignment in December 2023.

Prior to taking up this position, she served as Deputy Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party and Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 2008 to 2011 and from 2014 until 2017.

She was a Senior Cabinet Minister in the Fourth and Fifth Labour Governments of New Zealand and was the MP for the Rongotai electorate in Wellington from 1996 to 2017. Dame Annette is New Zealand’s longest-serving female MP, with 30 years in parliament. Her portfolios included Health, Police, Transport, Justice, Immigration, Employment and States Services.

Pacific Change Makers is a podcast from the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/

Twitter:
@LowyInstitute
@DrJessCollins
@annettecanberra

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An address by Hadja Lahbib, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belgium, on business and human rights. The event was presided over by Her Royal Highness Princess Astrid of Belgium, who led the Belgian Economic Mission to Australia.

Following her address, the Minister joined the Lowy Institute’s Research Director Hervé Lemahieu for a panel conversation alongside Dr James Cockayne, Anti-Slavery Commissioner for New South Wales, and Professor Justine Nolan, Director of the Australian Human Rights Institute at the University of New South Wales. The discussion was centred on Europe’s expansion of corporate due diligence efforts and the implications for Australian businesses.

Tuesday 24 October 2023

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On Friday 14 June 2024 we had our inaugural lecture in honour of Allan Gyngell, the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and one of Australia’s most respected foreign policy thinkers. Allan’s friend and contemporary, Ric Smith, delivered the Lecture on the subject of statecraft — a notion dear to Allan, and one that reaches beyond routine foreign policy and diplomacy and implies vision, a sense of history, and a strategic appreciation of a nation’s place in the world.

Ric Smith AO joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969. He served in Australia’s diplomatic missions in India, Israel, the Philippines and Hawaii and then as Ambassador to China and Mongolia (1996–2000) and later Indonesia (2001–2002). He was Secretary of the Department of Defence from 2002 to 2006. From 2009 to 2013, he was Australia’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He was appointed as an Officer of the Order of Australia in 1998, and awarded a Public Service Medal in 2002 for his service in response to the Bali bombing. The Allan Gyngell Lecture honours Allan Gyngell AO (1947–2023), the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute (2003–09). Allan was the Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, Australia’s peak intelligence analysis agency, from 2009 to 2013. He was later the National President of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor in the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific. Allan joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969, with postings in Rangoon, Singapore and Washington, DC. He headed the international division in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and served as international adviser to Prime Minister Paul Keating. ‍

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A wide-ranging conversation with The Economist’s defence editor, Shashank Joshi, which will cover the Ukraine war, the Middle East, China’s nuclear ambitions, tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the implications of the US presidential election for international security, and much more, including questions from the audience. Shashank Joshi is The Economist’s defence editor. Previously, he served as Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Research Associate at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War program. He has published books on Iran’s nuclear program and India’s armed forces, written for a wide range of newspapers and journals, and appeared regularly on radio and television. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, hosted the conversation.

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With less than a month to go before one of the most consequential presidential elections in US history, Lowy Institute experts Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu and Sam Roggeveen sit down to discuss what a potential Trump or Harris administration would mean for the United States and its relationships with allies and adversaries. Drawing on two recently published Lowy Institute interactive features in which Institute experts assess the policies, outlooks and approach to the world of the candidates, they unpack what two very different yet similarly enigmatic candidates would bring to the world stage. You can read more here.

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Hear Lowy Institute and Carnegie Endowment experts discuss the most pressing topic in Australian foreign policy: the future of the alliance with United States. The AUKUS agreement of September 2021 raised the US-Australia alliance to unprecedented levels of cooperation and alignment. But the first two months of the Trump Administration – particularly its Ukraine policy and relations with its neighbour and ally Canada – have raised fundamental questions about the future of American foreign policy and its attitudes towards traditional partners such as Australia.

Some of the authors of a recent Carnegie Asia Program report — Evan A. Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment; Courtney Stewart, Senior Managing Consultant at OCRT; and Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adjunct) at Griffith University — discuss these and other questions with Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, in an event moderated by Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.

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The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen spoke with Sweden’s defence minister, Pål Jonson, during his recent visit to Australia. Prior to his ministerial career, Jonson worked in Sweden’s Defence Research Agency, and his depth of knowledge about not just European security but also Asia comes through in this interview. Roggeveen asks Jonson why Swedes should care about Asia, whether Europe is doing enough to help Ukraine, and why Sweden chose to join NATO now.

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Many of the most economically efficient policies to reduce emissions, such as carbon pricing, have proven difficult to implement. In this episode of Development Futures, the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre Research Fellow Michelle Lyons speaks with Professor David Victor from UC San Diego on how to make climate policy work and ways to accelerate decarbonisation of the global economy. Their discussion includes the roles of carbon and offset markets in addressing climate change, opportunities for Australia and Pacific Island countries to accelerate climate action if their bid to co-host the 2026 UNFCCC Conference of the Parties is successful, and the importance of enhancing national institutional capacity when seeking to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the well-known American strategist and author, Dr Kori Schake. Kori began her career at the Pentagon before serving on the National Security Council and the State Department under President George W. Bush. She also served as the senior foreign policy adviser on Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. Kori is currently a Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Kori and Michael talk about John McCain, the Iraq War, the West’s response to President Trump and US policy towards China.

Kori talks about the influence Condoleezza Rice had on her during her studies at Stanford, reflects on her time in the Bush administration, and discusses the challenges of being a Republican in a Trumpified Washington.

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On the eve of the US election, Lowy Institute experts review the culmination of a tumultuous 2024 presidential election season.  Michael Fullilove, Ryan Neelam, Richard McGregor and Susannah Patton examine the beliefs and policies that animate both presidential contenders – Kalama Harris and Donald Trump – and their teams of advisors.  They also discuss the consequences of this election for Asia and the world.v

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In 2021, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) said that right-wing extremism makes up 50 per cent of its priority caseload. Since that announcement, intelligence and law enforcement agencies have disrupted a number of plots related to right-wing extremists in Australia. But this is not only an issue in Australia. There has been a 250 per cent increase in right-wing terrorism globally. So, what exactly is right-wing extremism and how is its potential for violence growing? Why is it a global problem? How does it threaten democracy and what should we do about it? Rise of the Extreme Right answers these questions.

Award-winning investigative journalist Nick McKenzie, whose recent work includes a major investigation on Australian neo-Nazi groups, will launch the book. Lydia Khalil will also speak about her book and her experiences as a counter-terrorism specialist in the United States and Australia. Lydia and Nick will then take questions from our audience. 
 
Lydia Khalil is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute and an Associate Research Fellow at Deakin University. She began her counter-terrorism and national security career after the September 11 attacks. She is a recognised expert on terrorism and extremism, having worked for the White House Office of Homeland Security, US Department of Defense, the New York Police Department, Boston Police Department and the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a frequent media commentator and has been widely published.
 
Nick McKenzie is an award-winning investigative journalist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. He has presented major investigations for the ABC's Four Corners and 7:30, 60 Minutes and The Australian Financial Review. With almost 20 years' experience, his investigations span foreign affairs, defence and national security, corporate wrongdoing, politics, organised crime and corruption, the criminal justice system and social affairs. His work has sparked Royal Commissions and parliamentary inquiries, and prompted investigations in Australia, the United States and Britain into corruption and bribery.

Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, will chair this event.

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Since the Albanese government was elected, Australia has focused on stabilising relations with China. But there are limits to Australia’s ability to successfully pursue stabilisation if there remains a spectre of confrontation between its largest trading partner and its key security guarantor, the United States.  Do either the US or China genuinely want to stabilise bi-lateral ties? And if they do, what is standing in the way? One reason is Taiwan, and Beijing’s campaign of encirclement of the island, a slow-motion strategy which, while it does not attract the same headlines as a possible invasion, can nevertheless achieve the same ends.  Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, discusses US-China competition, Taiwan, and more with Washington-based China scholars, Jude Blanchette and Dan Blumenthal.

Jude Blanchette is the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as the senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the Pentagon in the George W. Bush administration.

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The Lowy Institute’s latest episode of Pacific Change Makers introduces a fresh and dynamic voice in Pacific affairs – Oliver Nobetau, the new FDC Pacific Fellow from Papua New Guinea.

Oliver’s journey is as unique as it is inspiring. Born in Germany to a diplomatic family, with roots in both Bougainville and West New Britain, he brings a rich blend of international exposure and local understanding.

Oliver’s involvement in key climate initiatives and significant security arrangements in Papua New Guinea, including the PNG-Australia Bilateral Security Agreement, offers listeners a window into the complex yet pivotal challenges facing the Pacific today.

Oliver remembers flying into Honiara, Solomon Islands, on a six-seater plane alongside senior government officials in the immediate aftermath of the November 2021 unrest, “I remember vividly…there was smoke blowing in the air when we landed. There was nobody on the runway…so we just had to land and figure out where to park the plane.”

One of the most poignant moments in the conversation is Oliver’s reflection on the personal impact of climate change: “The environment is constantly changing... swimming creeks are drying up, the fruit trees you would enjoy as a kid are no longer bearing the same.” This personal connection to environmental changes underscores the urgency of addressing climate challenge in the Pacific.

As Oliver embarks on his year with the Lowy Institute, his focus on research around climate-induced migration and PNG’s social and security landscape promises to bring fresh perspectives and innovative solutions to the field.

Tune in to this episode of Pacific Change Makers for personal reflections from Oliver Nobetau, FDC Pacific Research Fellow and one of PNG’s emerging leaders, on witnessing the January unrest in Port Moresby, meeting the PNG Prime Minister, and working on some of the most impactful and high-profile regional security issues in the Pacific today.

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In this episode of The Director's Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Dr Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser. They discuss the role of individuals in history, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the future of Australia's relationship with China.

Dr Henry Kissinger was National Security Adviser to both the Nixon and Ford administrations, and from 1973 to 1977, he served as the 56th US Secretary of State. He is the only person to serve concurrently in both roles. Born in Germany, Dr Kissinger emigrated to the United States in 1938 and became a citizen in 1943. He received MA and PhD degrees from Harvard University in 1952 and 1954. His most recent book is Leadership: Six studies in World Strategy published in 2022 by Penguin.

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Weeks prior to the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, the Lowy Institute hosted global terrorism expert Professor Bruce Hoffman for a podcast with Program Director Lydia Khalil. They spoke about the future prospects of political violence in the United States and discussed Hoffman’s latest book, God, Guns, and Sedition, which traces the trajectory of terrorism, particularly far-right terrorism, in the United States and assesses its present day dangers, its relationship with mainstream politics, and the harm it poses to US and global security.

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Defence expert Ross Babbage talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about his new research paper, Deterrence and Alliance Power: Why the AUKUS Submarines Matter and how they can be Delivered. They discuss not just the viability of the project – can US and UK shipyards deliver? – but its justifications. Why does Australia need these submarines?

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The 2022 Lowy Lecture was delivered by World Trade Organization Director-General Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at Sydney Town Hall on 22 November 2022. Dr Okonjo-Iweala's address was titled The Multilateral Trading System in a Changing World: De-globalization or Re-globalization?

Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and first African to hold the office of Director-General of the World Trade Organization. Dr Okonjo-Iweala is an economist and international development professional with more than 40 years of experience. She has twice served as Nigeria's Finance Minister (2003–06 and 2011–15). In 2021, Time magazine recognised her as one of the world's most influential people.

The annual Lowy Lecture is the Lowy Institute’s flagship event, at which a prominent individual reflects on Australia and the world. Past Lecturers include German Chancellor Angela Merkel; UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson; US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan; Lowy Institute Chairman Sir Frank Lowy; and several Australian prime ministers including Prime Minister John Howard, who delivered the inaugural Lowy Lecture in 2005.

The full text of Dr Okonjo-Iweala's address is available at the Lowy Institute website.

The Lowy Institute acknowledges the generous support of the 2022 Lowy Lecture by King & Wood Mallesons.

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In this special episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu talks with three experts about the outcome of Indonesia's presidential election on 14 February 2024. Quick counts point to a landslide victory for Prabowo Subianto. What drove this result? Who is the 72-year-old Prabowo? And what kind of Indonesia can we expect under his presidency? Listen to the discussion with Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, Dr Fakhridho (Ridho) Susrahadiansyah Bagus Pratama Susilo, Senior Analyst at Bower Group Asia, and Dr Abdul Rahman Yaacob, Research Fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.

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In this episode, Michael Fullilove speaks with leading strategist and historian Eliot Cohen. They discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, the intelligence failures that led to the 7 October attacks on Israel, the prospect of Trump returning to the White House, and why people who care about international politics should read Shakespeare.

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At a time of significant geopolitical uncertainty, India is taking an ever more prominent role in world affairs. From its membership of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, to the influential part that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has played in talks with Russia's President at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, India is asserting its voice on major international issues.

Dr S. Jaishankar is India's leading diplomat. Before entering parliament, he was Foreign Secretary, and previously served as Ambassador in Beijing and Washington, DC. Before that he held posts in Tokyo, Moscow, Singapore, Colombo and Budapest. Dr Jaishankar addressed the Lowy Institute on the growing importance of India's relationship with Australia and the interests that both countries share as members of the security-focused Quad. After his remarks, Dr Jaishankar spoke in conversation with Executive Director Michael Fullilove.

Dr S. Jaishankar was appointed India's Minister for External Affairs in 2019 following his election to the upper house of India's parliament for the state of Gujarat. Dr Jaishankar served as Foreign Secretary (2015–2018) and previously represented India in a number of senior diplomatic roles including Ambassador to the United States (2013–2015) and Ambassador to China (2009–2013). Dr Jaishankar holds a PhD in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi and in 2019 was awarded the Padma Shri civilian honour. His book, The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, was published in 2020.

For more information about this event, visit the Lowy Institute website.

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What does great power competition mean, and where did the concept come from? In this episode of Rules Based Audio, Ben Scott speaks to author and analyst Ali Wyne about great power competition. They discuss whether it is a useful way of thinking about the world, and whether it can help foreign policymakers when they are deciding what to do.

Ali Wyne is a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro practice, where he focuses on US-China relations and great-power competition. He is the author, most recently, of America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalising US Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with General David Petraeus who led the 2007 surge in Iraq, headed up the US Central Command, commanded US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and served as director of the CIA.

Michael and David discuss America’s involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, reflect on President Biden’s approach to the use of force, and the Capitol riots of January 6. David provides insight into the future of the US-China relationship, shares his impressions of President Biden’s foreign policy team, and evaluates the legacy of the Trump presidency.

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In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute's Dr Michael Fullilove and Hervé Lemahieu discuss Donald Trump's remarkable political comeback. What will a second Trump presidency mean for America's allies, adversaries, and the fence-sitters? And how should Australia deal with Mr Trump in the Oval Office?

You can also read our special feature on Trump 2.0, as well as Dr Fullilove’s essay for The Atlantic.

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On Tuesday 10 September we had a conversation with the President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, on key global economic challenges, what this means for Australia and the Asia-Pacific, and how the World Bank, governments, private sector, and civil society can work together to make the investments needed to end poverty and boost shared prosperity on a liveable planet. Dr Michael Fullilove hosted this discussion, which also featured questions from the audience.

Ajay Banga began his five-year term as World Bank President in June 2023.  He most recently served as Vice Chairman at General Atlantic. Previously, he was President and CEO of Mastercard. He was Honorary Chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce, serving as Chairman from 2020-2022. He became an advisor to General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, at its inception in 2021. Banga served as Co-Chair of the Partnership for Central America, a coalition of private organisations that works to advance economic opportunity across underserved populations in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. 

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Defence analyst Marcus Hellyer talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about the unprecedented appearance of Chinese warships off Australia’s east coast. What message was Beijing sending? How well did Australia’s defence force perform in response? And what are Australia‘s future options with the United States in retrenchment?

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With Australia's security focus now firmly on the Pacific, it is easy to dismiss Australia's twenty-year military involvement in the Middle East as an aberration, or simply as a legacy function of our alliance with the United States. Yet Australia's direct connections and interests in the Middle East are much greater now than they were before the country committed military forces to the region. Canberra has a greater diplomatic presence, a military base, deeper economic interests and more significant people-to-people links in the Middle East than ever before. The evacuations by Australian troops from Lebanon in 2006 and Afghanistan in 2021, as well as the direct security threat to Australia posed by the rise of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, show how we cannot insulate ourselves from the dynamics and instability of the region.

In a new Analysis paper, Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that Australia's contemporary focus on the Pacific should not blind it to the fact that it has continuing interests in the Middle East. Rather, Canberra should seek to leverage its regional ties and ongoing influence in the Middle East to better effect — to create greater balance in Australian foreign policy. 
 
The event commenced with opening remarks by His Excellency Abdulla al-Sabousi, Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to Australia. Followed by an overview of the paper by Dr Shanahan and a Q&A with Dr Shanahan and Professor Karima Laachir, Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, moderated by Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by UK Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

They discuss David Lammy’s journey from cathedral chorister to the House of Commons, what kind of prime minister Keir Starmer would make, foreign policy under a Labour government, the UK’s relationship with Europe, China and the United States, how he was influenced by the revered West Indies cricket team of the 1970s, and how Australian manager Ange Postecoglou has influenced his beloved Tottenham Hotspur.

The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/

Twitter:
@LowyInstitute
@mfullilove
@DavidLammy

Host: Michael Fullilove 
Producers: Josh Goding and Andrew Griffits 
Research: David Vallance

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After a decade of foreign aid cuts, deprioritisation, and then securitisation, Australia finally has a new international development policy that aims to return development to the heart of Australia’s international statecraft. Leading that charge is Australia’s Minister for International Development and the Pacific, the Hon Pat Conroy. 

In this episode of Development Futures, Minister Conroy sits down with Roland Rajah, the director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute, to share his thoughts on what the new policy means. How will Australia’s development program be rebuilt? What is the relationship between development and geopolitics? What will the role of governance work and civil society be? Beyond the traditional aid program, will Australia increase its impact investment and clean energy financing to Southeast Asia, and can it still lend responsibly in the Pacific? And what will be Australia’s approach to reform of the multilateral system? These questions and more are covered in this wide-ranging discussion.

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Thursday 15 August 2024

The Lowy Institute was delighted to host the Rt Hon Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister of New Zealand, for a special foreign policy address on Thursday 15 August.

Rt Hon Christopher Luxon is the 42nd Prime Minister of New Zealand. Since coming to power in October 2023, Prime Minister Luxon has focused closely on issues of foreign, defence and trade policy, including re-engaging and reinvigorating New Zealand’s relationships with traditional and like-minded partners. He is also the Minister for National Security and Intelligence and the Minister Responsible for Ministerial Services. He entered Parliament at the 2020 election as the MP for Botany and was elected Leader of the National Party in November 2021.

Prior to entering Parliament, Prime Minister Luxon enjoyed a long career in the private sector: as Chief Executive Officer of Air New Zealand from 2013 to 2019, and at Unilever where he worked in New Zealand, Australia, the UK, the USA and Canada.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Re-Cast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2024. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Re-Cast series has you covered.

As we usher in the new year, the global economy is at a turning point. From confronting an economic development crisis and addressing the good-jobs dilemma, to navigating the climate transition and charting a course towards a more sustainable and equitable form of globalisation, 2024 promises to be an interesting year.

In this episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant, the Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with Harvard professor and economist Dani Rodrik about the challenges of globalisation and the intensification of geopolitics on the global economy.

They discuss the role of redistributive domestic policies, the impact of US–China competition on the delivery of global public goods, and the risk of breakdown of the multilateral trade system. These are just a few of the topics covered in this wide-ranging conversation.

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The 2022 Lowy Institute Media Lecture was delivered by the Financial Times chief foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman, who reflected on the place of foreign news coverage in a fracturing media environment.

Gideon Rachman became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included assignments as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington, DC, and Bangkok. He has also edited the business and Asia sections of The Economist. His interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation. His most recent book is titled The Age of the Strongman: How the cult of leader threatens democracy around the world.

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Multilateral institutions and the global financial system are on a transformative journey aimed at confronting the dual challenge of climate change and sustainable development. This multifaceted agenda involves substantial improvements to the governance structures of multilateral development banks, the redefinition of objectives and targets, and the creation of innovative financial instruments to mobilise both public and private capital for investments in climate and development. However, the journey is far from over, and many questions remain unanswered.

In this episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant speaks with Clemence Landers, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. Together, they discuss ongoing reform efforts, explore innovative solutions to maximise the impact of MDBs, and analyse the implications of the US–China competition within the reform landscape. What steps can MDBs take to optimise their financial resources, and how can they navigate the potential trade-offs between climate and development financing? These are just a few of the questions covered in this wide-ranging discussion.

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In this special episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute’s Dr Michael Fullilove and Hervé Lemahieu discuss US President Joe Biden’s momentous decision overnight to withdraw from his bid for a second term.

In the past three weeks, US politics has been reshaped before our eyes. A resurgent former president Donald Trump, emerging from an attempt on his life, appears stronger than ever. Meanwhile, after weeks of defying calls to withdraw from the race, Joe Biden abruptly abandoned his bid for a second term as US president. Will it be enough to turn things around for the Democratic Party, and where does the United States go from here?

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Professor Philip Bobbitt, one of America’s leading experts on constitutional law and national security, and the nephew of President Lyndon B. Johnson. Philip has served in both Democratic and Republican administrations and is the Herbert Wechsler Professor of Federal Jurisprudence at Columbia University Law School.

Philip reflects on the presidents he has worked with, the US response to the coronavirus pandemic, the future of US-China competition, and how history will judge his uncle Lyndon.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Admiral Harry Harris, the former US commander and diplomat. Harry served as the Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, and as President Trump’s Ambassador to South Korea.

Harry discusses his military career, which took in postings from Guantanamo Bay to INDOPACOM headquarters in Honolulu, when he led nearly 400,000 military personnel. They also discuss his time as a diplomat, when he grappled with issues including Black Lives Matter and President Trump’s attempts to cut a deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Harry recounts his ‘Sliding Doors’ moment, when he was meant to serve as Ambassador to Australia.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia. They discuss Estonia’s strong support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion, the future of Russia in world affairs, and why democracies must work together to counter aggression and reinforce support for the international rules-based order.

Kaja Kallas has been the Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia since 2021. She first became a member of Estonia’s parliament, the Riigikogu, in 2011, and served as a member of the European Parliament from 2014, before returning to politics in Estonia as leader of the Reform Party. She was returned as Prime Minister in March this year after general elections.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Re-Cast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2024. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Re-Cast series has you covered.

Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant leads the world’s first government regulatory agency committed to keeping its citizens safer online. While her appointment is domestic, the internet is global. In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute’s Lydia Khalil talks with Inman Grant about what she learned from her previous experience working in the tech industry, how to regulate it, global efforts to coordinate online safety, particularly around AI, and the geopolitics of tech regulation.

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The FDC Pacific Lecture, was given by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Fiji, the Hon Sitiveni Ligamamada Rabuka.  
  
The Hon Sitiveni Rabuka is Fiji’s seventh elected Prime Minister, having previously served in the role from 1992 to 1999. He is also the current Minister for Foreign Affairs, Climate Change, Environment, Civil Service, Information, Public Enterprises and Veteran Affairs. 
 
Prime Minister Rabuka has a distinguished military career and served as the Chair of Fiji’s Great Council of Chiefs from 1999 to 2001.   

Prime Minister Rabuka spoke on Fiji’s economic recovery, future development ambitions and role in the region given intensifying geopolitical engagement. After his remarks, the Prime Minister spoke in conversation with the Lowy Institute's Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM. 
  
The Prime Minister was introduced by the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator the Hon Penny Wong.

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What do the maritime security challenges close to Australia mean for the country's future?

We were joined in discussion with Rebecca Strating and Joanne Wallis on their new book Girt by Sea: Reimagining Australia's Security, which looks at six maritime domains central to the country's national interests and offers an alternative vision for how Australia should understand its strategic challenges.

The authors discussed their reasons for reimagining how Australia should understand its strategic challenges, focusing on finding security in the north seas (the Timor, Arafura and Coral Seas and the Torres Strait), the Western Pacific, the South China Sea, the South Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean.

Rebecca Strating and Joanne Wallis spoke in conversation with Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.

Professor Rebecca Strating is the Director of La Trobe Asia and a Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, Melbourne. Her research focuses primarily on Asian regional security, maritime disputes, and Australian foreign and defence policy.

Professor Joanne Wallis is Professor of International Security in the Department of Politics and International Relations, and Director of the Security in the Pacific Islands research program, at the University of Adelaide. She is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution.

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In this episode of Conversations, Susannah Patton, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, talks with Dr Nguyen Hung Son, Vice President of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. They discuss Vietnam’s foreign policy outlook, relations with external partners, including Australia, and how Vietnam sees key regional issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the conflict in Myanmar. Dr Son highlights Vietnam’s continued focus on diplomacy within ASEAN, as well as its interest in a regional balance of power that could lower the risk of conflict.

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On 14 March 2023, Australian foreign policy expert and former Lowy Institute Executive Director Professor Michael Wesley launched his new book Helpem Fren: Australia and the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (MUP 2023). The book is the first comprehensive history of Australia’s RAMSI intervention, which was aimed at preventing the collapse of the Pacific Island state. Helpem Fren draws on still-classified official documents and more than 30 interviews to explore the motivations and dynamics behind the 14-year Pacific-wide mission — a project that cost more than $2 billion and involved thousands of soldiers, police and public servants from Australia and across the Pacific. RAMSI was remarkably successful in an age of disastrous interventions, yet its legacy has largely vanished from Australia’s public consciousness. Professor Wesley joined the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands Program Director Meg Keen, to discuss the challenges of interventions and development assistance in a Pacific that is more geopolitically contested than it has been for 70 years. 

Michael Wesley is Deputy Vice-Chancellor International and Professor of Politics at the University of Melbourne. His research and writing focus on Australian foreign policy and the international affairs of Asia and the Pacific. Previously, he was Dean of the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University. He has also held positions as Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, and Assistant Director-General for Transnational Issues at the Office of National Assessments. He has a PhD in International Relations from the University of St Andrews.

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Sean Turnell's new Lowy Institute Paper, Best Laid Plans, was officially launched by Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong at an event at the National Press Club in Canberra, on Monday 14 October 2024.

The new book offers a unique first-hand account of the radical reforms implemented in Myanmar under the ill-fated civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms, designed both to turn around Myanmar’s dire economy and lay the economic foundations for democracy, were brought to a dramatic end following the military coup in February 2021. Sean Turnell was one of Suu Kyi’s key economic advisers who was imprisoned alongside her in the wake of the coup.

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In this episode, Debra Sungi of PNG’s Climate Change and Development Authority speaks with the Lowy Institute’s Oliver Nobetau.

Discussions around development in the Pacific consistently reference climate change as a major challenge. Countries such as PNG have to manage the support offered by international development partners without being overwhelmed by foreign agendas and aligning external assistance with national priorities.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Debra Sungi, who is the newly appointed director of the CCDA, as well as one of a handful of women leading government agencies in PNG and the youngest ever at only 33, discusses PNG’s national initiatives and the importance of bringing knowledge to the grass roots level. She also talks about success stories of bilateral cooperation, and dealing with the challenges of climate change and being a young woman in a position of leadership.

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During a brief visit to Sydney, Major General (Ret'd) Tamir Hayman, Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, offered the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen his unique insights on where momentum now lies in the Ukraine war, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon or stop just short of building one, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of ‘information super-abundance’.

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In this episode of The Director's Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with former Italian Prime Minister, Enrico Letta, about running a major European power, his relationship with world leaders, global governance during COVID-19, and the future of the European project.

Enrico Letta served as the Prime Minister of Italy from 2013 to 2014. He is the Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po in Paris, one of the top international relations schools in the world.

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Plans for Donald Trump's second-term inauguration are well underway, with his transition team straight to work announcing appointments. Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove has recently returned from the United States where he met with a number of outgoing and incoming officials. For the final episode of 2024, he spoke with Lowy Institute Fellow Lydia Khalil about the new Trump administration.

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In the second episode of The Director's Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Lord Mervyn King about COVID-19, global economic downturn, the UK's response to the virus, Brexit, and what Lord King terms the 'radical uncertainty' of economic forecasting during a global crisis.

Lord King served as the Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013, including the period of the global financial crisis.

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Australia’s strategic outlook on the Indo-Pacific is changing rapidly, as reflected by the recent AUKUS announcement, forthcoming Defence Strategic Review and membership of new regional minilateral groupings such as the Quad. These changes will have important implications for Australia’s relations with neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia, and especially Indonesia, highlighted by Jakarta’s mixed response to the AUKUS announcement in 2021. How widespread are concerns about AUKUS and Australian strategic policy more generally within Indonesia? Are the two countries experiencing a divergence in their strategic outlooks? And how should the two sides manage the risk of such a divergence in the years ahead? 

On Wednesday 26 April 2023, the Lowy Institute hosted an event at Old Parliament House, Canberra featuring Dr Evan A. Laksmana, Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, in conversation with Richard Maude of the Asia Society Policy Institute. The event was moderated by Susannah Patton, Southeast Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute. 

Dr Evan A. Laksmana is a Senior Research Fellow with the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. He is also a Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow.

Richard Maude is Executive Director, Policy, and Senior Fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He is a former Director-General of the Office of National Assessments and head of the whole-of-government taskforce which prepared the Australian Government’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.

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The Pacific is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world, facing frequent and severe extreme weather events and rising sea levels. Adaptation and resilience-building are vital to helping Pacific communities cope, but financial assistance is insufficient and difficult to access.

Pacific leaders have responded to this gap with the creation of the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF). The PRF is the first Pacific-led, owned and managed fund dedicated to financing community-centred adaptation and resilience solutions in Pacific Island countries. The Australian government pledged $100 million to the Facility in 2023. However, far more is still needed and from a wider set of donors.

The Lowy Institute was delighted to host Finau Soqo, General Manager of the Pacific Resilience Facility, for a panel discussion on climate finance in the Pacific and Australia’s role. Ms Soqo was joined by His Excellency Samson Vilvil Fare, High Commissioner of the Republic of Vanuatu, one of the world’s worst affected countries by climate change, and Kristin Tilley, Australia’s Ambassador for Climate Change. The panel will be chaired by Dr Melanie Pill, Climate Change Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre. The discussion was followed by an audience Q&A.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with legendary Australian official Dennis Richardson about his storied career in the public service, prime ministers he has known, and the foreign policy challenges facing Australia – including how to manage our relationships with the United States and China.

Over the course of his 48-year career, Dennis Richardson AO served in many important jobs including Ambassador to the United States, Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, Secretary of the Department of Defence, and Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

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Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel Prize-winning economist, has dedicated four decades to studying poverty, inequality, health, wellbeing, and economic development. Recently, he strongly criticised his own profession, arguing that economists have overlooked the power dynamics inherent in capitalism.

In this wide-ranging episode of Development Futures, Alexandre Dayant, the Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre, talks with Deaton about the factors behind his shift in thinking and discusses his evolving perspectives on free trade, immigration's impact on American workers, and the role of foreign aid, among other topics.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with one of the world’s leading Trumpologists, Dr Thomas Wright. Tom is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC and a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. His recent Lowy Institute Analysis, The Point of No Return: The 2020 Election and the Crisis of American Foreign Policy, examines implications of the 2020 US presidential election for Australia and the world.

Tom reflects on his childhood in Ireland, his experience working in the US foreign policy community as an immigrant, and takes listeners on a guided tour of the world views of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden. He examines what a second Trump term, and a first Biden term, would mean for US policies on China, alliances, and global trade. He also discusses the stakes for Australia.

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Donald Trump has moved quickly to impose tariffs on literally every country in the world. Trump’s tariffs against Australia are not only affecting matters of trade; they potentially infringe Australian sovereignty. The Lowy Institute’s Lead Economist Roland Rajah sits down with Dr Jenny Gordon, Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow and Honorary Professor at the Australian National University, to discuss the economics and peculiar logic behind Trump’s tariff plans, what it means for smaller countries like Australia, and how they should respond.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the Brookings Institution scholar and Merkel-watcher Dr Constanze Stelzenmüller. Constanze holds the Fritz Stern Chair at Brookings.

Michael and Constanze talk about the chancellorship of Angela Merkel, her legacy, and look to the future of German politics. Constanze reflects on the state of transatlantic relations, Germany’s relationship with China, and considers whether Merkel will go down as one of ‘the great chancellors’.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Sir Lawrence Freedman, who is in Australia as the Lowy Institute’s 2022 Distinguished Fellow for International Security. Michael and Sir Lawrence discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the lessons it offers for military strategists around the world. They discuss the implications for China and Taiwan, and how the AUKUS security pact has changed Australia’s strategic outlook. 

Sir Lawrence Freedman is Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London. Elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1995 and awarded the CBE in 1996, he was appointed Official Historian of the Falklands Campaign in 1997. In 2003, he was awarded the KCMG. In June 2009, he was appointed to serve as a member of the official inquiry into Britain and the 2003 Iraq War. He has written widely on international history, strategic theory and nuclear weapons issues, as well as commenting on current security issues. Among his books are Strategy: A History (2013) and Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine (2022).

The Distinguished Fellowship for International Security is supported by the Australian Department of Defence through the Strategic Policy Grants program.

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As part of the Lowy Institute Re-Cast series, we are republishing the best podcasts of 2024. In case you missed them the first time around or if you want revisit these engaging conversations, the Re-Cast series has you covered.

In this episode, Michel Barnier, Europe’s former point man on Brexit negotiations, speaks with Hervé Lemahieu. Four years on, what lessons should the West draw from Brexit? How united is Europe in the face of populism at home and with new challenges on its doorstep, including the war in Ukraine? And are China and Russia two faces of the same threat?

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Hear from former senior NATO figure and arms control negotiator Rose Gottemoeller on the prospects for peace in Europe’s bloodiest conflict since the Second World War. Donald Trump arrived as US president promising a swift end to the war in Ukraine. But can the war end in a way that will be fair to Ukrainians, and which closes off opportunities for further Russian aggression? Rose Gottemoeller will address these complex questions and analyse the unfolding peace process.

Rose Gottemoeller is the Lowy Institute’s 2025 Distinguished Fellow for International Security. She is currently the William J Perry Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Prior to this, she served as Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019 and was Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the US State Department. In 2009 and 2010, she was chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation, due to expire in 2026.‍

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China is facing many economic problems, at home and abroad. The two are connected. Weak demand at home has contributed to a sharp rise in Chinese manufacturing exports, especially in green technologies such as electric vehicles. Surging Chinese exports have in turn prompted a backlash from the United States, Europe, and others who accuse China of exporting overcapacity and damaging their own green industrial ambitions.

In this episode, Roland Rajah, Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre (IPDC), talks with Dr Bert Hofman, one of the leading international experts on China’s economy and a widely respected development economist and practitioner. They discuss China’s development model, the idea of “Peak China”, whether China is exporting overcapacity, what this all means for developing countries, and Bert’s ideas for what the world should be doing in response.

Dr Hofman is currently an adjunct professor at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore and before that was with the World Bank for almost three decades, most recently as director of the World Bank’s country office in China.

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Democracies around the world are being challenged by socio-economic pressures, rising inequalities, and rapid technological developments, as well as growing polarisation and diminishing trust in institutions. Safeguarding democracy by addressing these challenges has become a national priority, but it also has clear geopolitical implications for Australia and its democratic allies. With non-democratic powers such as China and Russia acting to blunt the influence of the international rules-based order, the health of democracies will play a significant role in the future of this order and its institutions.

An in-person conversation with the head of Australia’s Strengthening Democracy Taskforce, Dr Jeni Whalan, to discuss how Australia fares in terms of the broader global trends impacting democracies and what renewing democracy at home means in an era of geopolitical competition.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the long-time public official, policymaker, and former President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick. Bob served in the Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush administrations. He is the author of America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy.

Bob and Michael talk about Xi Jinping’s China, the Biden administration, and the AUKUS pact. Bob reflects on his mentor James Baker, why he decided to go into public life, and comments on the current direction of the GOP.

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Retired Australian Army General Mick Ryan is one of the most influential and prolific analysts of the Ukraine war. This conversation with Sam Roggeveen, Director of the International Security Program, was intended as a reflection on the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, but instead becomes a much broader and deeper conversation about the sensational diplomatic events of the last few weeks, and about America’s role in the world under Trump.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Professor at Harvard University, Executive Director of the Aspen Strategy Group, and one of the leading American diplomats of his generation. Nick served in the US government for nearly three decades, holding senior positions under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He was a member of Secretary of State John Kerry’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board and a foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2016. He is also a foreign policy adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with John Howard, Australia’s 25th Prime Minister. John Howard was Treasurer from 1977 to 1983 in the Fraser government and served as Prime Minister between 1996 and 2007.

Michael and John discuss how China has changed in the last twenty-five years, Australia’s relationship with East Timor, and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

John recounts watching Prime Minister Menzies eulogise Sir Winston Churchill, talks about being in Washington on 9/11, and reflects on Australia’s relations with Indonesia.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with one of the leading US Democratic voices on foreign policy, Kurt Campbell. From 2009 to 2013, Kurt served as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under Secretary Clinton in the Obama administration, where he is widely credited as a key architect of the “pivot to Asia.” He is CEO of The Asia Group, and serves as Chairman of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, which he co-founded with Michèle Flournoy in 2007.

Michael and Kurt discuss Kurt’s upbringing, his working life, President-elect Biden’s likely policy towards Asia, the current disagreement between Canberra and Beijing, and future relations between the Biden administration and the Morrison government.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Hervé Lemahieu discusses the continuing threat of nuclear weapons, global efforts at arms control and Australia's interactions with the global non-proliferation regime around its proposed acquisition of nuclear submarine technology under the AUKUS agreement. He speaks with Australia's Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-proliferation Ian Biggs, Program Officer for Nuclear Materials Security Jessica Bufford and Dr Geoffrey Shaw, Director-General of the Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO).

Ian Biggs was appointed Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-Proliferation in January 2022 and leads Australia's international advocacy on global arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament. He has previously served as Australia's Ambassador to Iran (2016-19), Turkey (2011-14) and Saudi Arabia (2005-08) and has previously served in postings in Iraq, India, Austria and Syria. Ambassador Biggs has also served as Secretary of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, Chair of the Australia Group, Special Assistant to the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Chair of the Nuclear Suppliers Group's Dual Use Regime. He holds a Master of Arts (International Relations) from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from the University of Sydney.

Jessica Bufford serves as a program officer in the Nuclear Material Security team at the Nuclear Threat Initiative - a nonprofit, nonpartisan global security organization focused on reducing nuclear and biological threats imperiling humanity. Prior to joining NTI, she worked in the Division of Nuclear Security at the IAEA. She has also worked on materials management and minimization at the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration, and worked previously at NTI as a Herbert J. Scoville Fellow. She received a master’s degree in nonproliferation and terrorism studies, with a certificate in conflict resolution, from the Monterey Institute of International Studies and a bachelor’s degree in political science and French from Austin College.

Dr Geoffrey Shaw was appointed to the position of Director General, Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO) in 2022. He is responsible for Australia’s implementation and compliance with regard to the Nuclear Non‑proliferation Treaty, Chemical Weapons Convention and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Prior to this appointment, Dr Shaw has most recently served as Australia’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, Australia’s Ambassador for People Smuggling and Human Trafficking and the Representative of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the United Nations. Previously, Dr Shaw served as the Special Assistant for Policy to the Director General of the IAEA and Australia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament.

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In the new episode of The Director’s Chair, the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

They discuss Kurt Campbell’s new role in the State Department, American policy towards China, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, Xi Jinping’s recent visit to France, Dr Campbell’s aims for the AUKUS pact, and the things that make him optimistic when he looks at the world today.

The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/

Twitter:
@LowyInstitute
@mfullilove
@DeputySecState 

Host: Michael Fullilove 
Producers: Josh Goding and Andrew Griffits 
Research: David Vallance

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In this episode of The Director's Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with His Excellency José Ramos-Horta, the President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. José and Michael discuss the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, relations between Timor-Leste and Australia and the role of China's in the Indo-Pacific region. José reflects on his time in leadership roles, and the need for his generation to effectively hand on political power to younger generations.

José Ramos-Horta was Timor-Leste's first foreign minister when it declared independence from Portugal in 1975. Following Indonesia’s invasion later that year, he became the international voice of the Timorese people. In 1996 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. When Timor-Leste became a new nation following the Popular Consultation of 1999, he returned from exile to serve as the new nation’s first foreign minister. From 2006 to 2007 he served as Prime Minister, and from 2007 to 2012 he served as President. This year he came out of retirement and returned to the presidential palace. He was inaugurated on 20 May, which was 20th anniversary of the restoration of Timor-Leste’s independence.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Susannah Patton talks to Amrita Malhi, senior development policy adviser and Honorary Senior Lecturer at Flinders History and the Humanities Research Centre at the Australian National University, about the political outlook for Malaysia following the November general election. The election saw victory for Anwar Ibrahim’s multi-racial coalition, which has now formed a national unity government. What drove this result, and will Malaysia see greater political stability than it has endured since the 2018 election? What kind of international role is Prime Minister Anwar likely to pursue?

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Research Fellow Jennifer Hsu talks with Zhiqun Zhu to explore and assess some of China’s major foreign policy initiatives and priorities over the last five years. They discuss the driving forces behind these initiatives, including President Xi Jinping himself, and the major institutions that shape China’s foreign policy, namely the Chinese state, the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people.
 
Zhiqun Zhu is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University, USA. He is currently a US Fulbright Scholar at Griffith University, Australia. He is the author and editor of more than a dozen books, including A Critical Decade: China’s Foreign Policy 2008­­­­–2018 (World Scientific, 2019). He is a member of the National Committee on United States–China Relations and is frequently quoted by international media on Chinese and East Asian affairs.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Nonresident Fellow Dr Bobo Lo speaks with International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen about the attempted coup by elements of the Wagner paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. They discuss the mutiny, the likely impact on Russia’s leadership, and what effect it will have on the future direction of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Dr Bobo Lo is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, DC, and an Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Previously, he was Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. He is the author of a number of books including the Lowy Institute Paper A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World. He has an MA from Oxford and a PhD from Melbourne University. 

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In this episode of The Director's Chair, the Lowy Institute's Executive Director Michael Fullilove is joined by The New York Times columnist Bret Stephens.

They discuss the forthcoming US election and why he thinks Donald Trump is likely to return to the White House. They also talk about the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, AUKUS, cancel culture, and why he changed his mind about the risks of climate change.

The Director’s Chair is a podcast by the Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/

X:
@LowyInstitute
@mfullilove

Host: Michael Fullilove 
Producers: Darcy Milne and Andrew Griffits 
Research: David Vallance

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with international business leader Marcus Wallenberg. Marcus is a fifth-generation member of the Wallenberg Family, a Swedish political and business dynasty that has counted foreign ministers, ambassadors, and prominent business figures among its numbers.

Marcus is the chairman of both Saab and the SEB Group. He sits on the board of AstraZeneca and the international advisory board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and has previously served as chair of the International Chamber of Commerce.

Michael and Marcus talk about the situation in Hong Kong, the rollout of vaccines, and how the pandemic has changed the nature of work. Marcus discusses how China is viewed in Europe, the future of the international economy, and leaders who have impressed him.

Saab Australia is a subsidiary of Saab AB, of which Marcus Wallenberg is the Chairman. Saab Australia is a corporate member of the Lowy Institute.

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Dmitri Alperovitch is the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. In this Lowy Institute Conversation, he talks with Sam Roggeveen about China’s ambitions, why Taiwan is so important, the military balance in Asia, and much more.

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Trillions of dollars are needed to meet the world’s climate and development goals. Joan Larrea, CEO of Convergence, a global blended finance network, speaks with the Lowy Institute’s Roland Rajah about how blended finance, which uses government and philanthropic money to increase private investment, could be the answer. Joan shares her insights on what blended finance can realistically achieve, what’s needed to increase its impact, and how it can help in low income and small island developing countries.  

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President Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly tariffs on steel and aluminium, have sparked retaliatory actions from long-standing allies and raised serious questions about the future of America's working relationships with the rest of the world.

In December, the Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion about the impact of Donald Trump presidency in Asia — from US security and trade ties with Indo-Pacific, and the outlook for US-China tensions and key regional flashpoints, including Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Lydia Khalil convened this conversation with colleagues Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Interpreter and Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, and Professor Bec Strating, Director of La Trobe Asia.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks to the leading Indian scholar and diplomat, Shivshankar Menon. They discuss Hamas’s attack on Israel, how India manages its relationship with China, and why he is an optimist about the relationship between India and Australia.

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Darshana M. Baruah and Oriana Skylar Mastro launch their new books, The Contest for the Indian Ocean and Upstart: How China became a Great Power. The Contest for the Indian Ocean, Baruah explores how the Indian Ocean has become a central stage for geopolitical competition, highlighting its strategic importance and the ambitions of global powers vying for influence in the region. Meanwhile, in Upstart, Mastro offers a compelling analysis of China's unconventional path to great power status, revealing the strategies that enabled its rise without triggering a major global backlash.

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In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with the former US Deputy National Security Adviser, Matthew Pottinger. Matt started out as a journalist based in China, served in the US Marine Corps, and joined the Trump administration first as the Asia senior director at the National Security Council and later as Deputy National Security Advisor.

Michael and Matt speak about President Trump’s approach to foreign policy, the administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, and the future of both US and Australian relations with China. Matt explains what originally interested him in China, speaks about his time in the Marine Corps, and reveals why he resigned from the White House after the Capitol siege of 6 January.

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