Insights Now (Dr. David Kelly and Gabriela Santos, J.P. Morgan Asset Management)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought horrible human consequences, but for investors it’s also raised a lot of questions. On this episode, we review the broad implications of the Russian invasion for investors in a special roundtable interview. Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Maccarrone, equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and retired General Mastin Robeson, member of the Academy Security's Geopolitical Team, in a discussion moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. General Robeson sheds light on the current state of play in geopolitics and the scenarios that may unfold, while David Maccarrone and Dr. Kelly discuss the implications around commodities, inflation, and fiscal and monetary policy.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth.

For more information on the Guide to Alternatives, please visit our website here.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

As rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fallout have uncovered weaknesses in global supply chains, many nations have begun to rethink their trading relationships. U.S. policy, for example, has turned increasingly nationalistic, with recent administrations implementing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, allocating funds toward domestic development of strategic industries and proposing other protectionist measures to support domestic activity. This election season, tariffs and trade have once again found themselves at the forefront of recent discourse, with both candidates proposing a stricter stance on trade policy, but to varying degrees and in different forms. Regardless of the outcome in November, these policies will have a profound impact on the global economy and have the potential to redefine the opportunity set across global financial markets.

Today’s episode discusses whether tariffs have been effective in the past and explore the investment implications of a more strict trade policy. For this conversation, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, joins Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Tune in to hear David Kelly and Global Market Strategist, Samantha Azzarello discuss the key tenets of behavioral finance that every investor should be aware of. There's growth to be found when you know where to look. To learn more click here.

The equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the Fed's rate hiking cycle on equity markets.

For additional insights on the 1Q22 earnings season, check out our latest bulletin written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

With comprehensive oversight and deep expertise in a diverse array of investment vehicles, including real estate, real assets, hedge funds, private equity, private credit and liquid alternative solutions, our mission is to demystify these often lesser-known asset classes. By providing clear, real-world examples, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap and empower investors to make informed decisions. Our goal is to bring these complex investment opportunities to life, showcasing their strategic value and how they can be effectively integrated into a diversified portfolio to achieve long-term financial objectives.

Join us as Dr. David Kelly is joined by Brandon Robinson, Deputy Head of Private Markets, to discuss the different ways that adding alternatives into a portfolio can enhance clients’ outcomes and the benefits of private market investing. 

For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Despite lagging the broader index, industrial stocks performed well in 2024, gaining over 17% on a total return basis. Sector fundamentals, however, have been more challenged. After an impressive post-COVID recovery supported double-digit earnings growth in 2022, industrial earnings have been in the doldrums alongside U.S. manufacturing activity. In fact, on a year-over-year basis, the sector is on pace to see earnings contract for the last three quarters of 2024. That said, prospects ahead look brighter. With AI and policy tailwinds, increased focus on domestic infrastructure investment and the Fed now easing policy, earnings growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, providing investors with a broad menu of investment options to choose from within the sector.

On this episode, Gabriela Santos, is joined by Rob Maloney, an equity research analyst covering industrials and a co-portfolio manager here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

In today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, portfolio manager in our Multi-Asset Solutions group at JP Morgan Asset Management. Phil manages portfolios with a global opportunity set, and in doing so is actively making decisions on how to allocate the pieces of the pie within portfolios. What's the optimal mix of stocks versus bonds? And then how do you allocate within those sleeves? Where can you get the best bang for your buck in terms of returns, while also managing risk in portfolios amidst an uncertain macro outlook? These decisions largely depend on relative valuations, the outlook for interest rates and growth, and the relative attractiveness of yields. In this episode, we’ll hear form Phil on how he’s shifting the dials in portfolios right now, and the slice he's allocated to fixed income.

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Nick Leventis, senior healthcare analyst for the Innovators strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the genomic health revolution. Healthcare spending now amounts to almost 18% of GDP and chronic conditions are on the rise while baby boomers are just beginning to retire. The need for high quality care is becoming more and more important. Genomics, or the study of genes, is making it possible to predict, diagnose, and treat diseases more precisely and personally than ever before. This technology has been key in the creation of a viable and dynamic Covid-19 vaccine, but it has also heralded advancements in sequencing and machine learning, liquid biopsy, proteomics, etc.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

 

As technology has improved, so has market efficiency, and generating alpha through active management is as challenging a task as ever. In light of this, “tax alpha,” or creating value through tax management strategies, has grown in importance and popularity and has left investors asking, “How can I minimize taxes in your investment strategy?”

 

For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for taxes, and how investors can minimize their tax burden.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Regardless of where you are in life, you need a plan for the future, and for most Americans, that involves planning for retirement. The task can feel overwhelming at times and easily be pushed aside for later, more pressing times. However, a well-constructed plan for the future not only helps ensure a secure retirement, but can be a powerful engine for savings and wealth generation. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Michael Conrath, Chief Retirement Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to guide us through the toolkit for retirement planning and the key strategies that individuals can leverage.

Explore our insights on retirement strategies: https://bit.ly/3MDHxYd

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The end of the year is near, and that means everyone is comparing their Spotify Wrapped and Apple Music Replays, making the case for why their most-listened-to song is the best. We wanted to do something similar for Insights Now. That is why, for our final episode of season 12, we will reflect on some of the most important takeaways from the 23 episodes we recorded this year. From exploring the fastest-growing themes in alternatives to navigating the complexities of the U.S. election, we’ve covered a lot of ground, so stay tuned as we recap our “greatest hits” of 2024.

This episode explores the main themes and insights from the past year. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, the Chief Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and new co-host for the Insights Now podcast.

Resources:

Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

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Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their strong performance. That said, the sector’s 23% gain kept pace with the broader market last year. In 2025, this momentum should continue. After two decades of stagnant power demand, the electrification of the U.S. economy and the intense power needs of generative artificial intelligence should prompt demand to inflect higher. Additionally, with our aging grid infrastructure and more frequent extreme weather events, finding enough capacity to provide adequate electricity supply won’t be easy. These themes, and others, should highlight winners across the utilities sector. For investors looking to diversify tech exposure, utilities could offer an attractive way to invest in the many themes driving markets today, but with a very different wrapper.

To share what she’s seeing across the utilities sector, Gabriela Santos, my new co-host, will be joined by Teresa Kim, a utilities-focused equity research analyst here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

 Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and James McNerny, lead portfolio manager of the actively managed JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF, discuss how to make the most of your cash in a world of low yields.

As we plan for our next season, please provide your thoughts and any suggestions on our podcast. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com.

2022 has been a brutal year for investors, with unusually large sell-offs in both stocks and bonds resulting in one of the worst years ever for balanced investing. However, 2023 may be the calm after the storm of this year, with markets stabilizing, inflation receding and the Fed nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Moreover, precisely because markets have been so battered, lower equity valuations and higher bond yields present some of the most attractive entry points for investors in over a decade.

On our last episode of this season, I am joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the key takeaways from our Investment Outlook for 2023 and the importance of asset allocation in a challenged environment.

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023.    For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage. 

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Wu, Global Head of Sustainable Investing here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss the increased interest in ESG investing.

Seeking long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies who are leaders in sustainability?  Click here.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Giri Devulapally, lead portfolio manager for the Large Cap Growth strategy here at JPMorgan Asset Management discuss opportunities in technology trends over the long term.

Watch the video version of this podcast on YouTube. 

New and innovative technologies have disrupted industries time and time again, creating more efficient ways to reach desired outcomes. The financial services industry is no exception, and options for investing today look far different than they did 100 years ago. The exchange traded fund, or ETF, is one example of these technologies changing the ways that we invest. Investors may associate ETFs with passive management, but the recent growth of actively managed ETFs is challenging that assumption. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bryon Lake, Global Head of ETF Solutions at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss how investors are using active ETFs to harness the tools of active management in a complex investment environment.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

Over the past year, investors have been inundated with negative reports of elevated mortgage rates and empty office buildings, weighing on their sentiment toward real estate investing. However, real estate comes in many shapes and sizes, and each sector has its own fundamentals and use cases in the portfolio construction process. In fact, while some segments may look more attractive than others, valuations across the asset class have reset as rates have climbed higher, and investors searching for diversification, steady income and inflation protection have an entirely new menu of opportunities to choose from. That said, after nearly a decade of suppressed interest rates, real estate investors may have to re-calibrate their approach for the return of a structurally higher cost of capital.

To share how he is approaching the market against the backdrop of higher rates, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Doug Schwartz, a Co-President and Portfolio Manager within our Real Estate Americas Platform. Doug has been with the firm since 2004 and has almost 30 years of industry experience across a range of functions, including transactions, asset management and risk management.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the current landscape of commercial real estate, highlighting opportunities beyond the office sector. We’ll talk about the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., which has been made worse by past overbuilding, lack of workers and zoning issues. The industrial sector is thriving, driven by the rise in e-commerce and logistics, with a significant increase in delivery vehicles. Retail is evolving, with neighborhood strip centers and high-end luxury performing well, while middle-tier malls struggle. Real estate is a valuable component of investment portfolios, offering risk mitigation, inflation protection and consistent cash flow.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the opportunities he’s seeing on the market. Chad leads our investment management business in the United States for real estate and his team focuses on the $70 billion of real estate that we own.

Timestamps:

• Introduction (00:00)
• Direct vs. Public market real estate investment (01:19)
• Housing shortage in the U.S. (02:23)
• The J.P. Morgan approach to single-family rentals (03:41)
• Office space recovery post-COVID (05:34)
• Industrial space and delivery trends (07:15)
• Retail space outlook (08:26)
• Real estate in investment portfolios (10:34)

Resources:

For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

Excitement around artificial intelligence has been a key driver behind strong market performance over the past year. This makes sense, as it has potential to be one of the most transformative technologies in modern history. That said, widespread AI implementation is still in its early stages, and its broader implications for the economy and investing remain unknown. This has left many investors wondering, “How will AI shape the markets and the economy?”

To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Joe Wilson, Portfolio Manager, for a discussion on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on the economy and markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Despite last year's excellent returns in public markets, alternative assets are garnering increased attention due to their income diversification benefits, high equity valuations and the potential for above-trend inflation. As alternative investments become more accessible to the public, allocations to these assets are expected to rise in the coming years. This trend underscores the importance of general education and thought leadership in the field of alternative investments. This is precisely the mission of the Guide to Alternatives and the Alternative Realities podcast. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Aaron Mulvihill, the newest Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who will be focusing specifically on alternative assets.

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Tune in to hear David Kelly and John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy, discuss the key themes and issues that are going to drive both economic growth, inflation, monetary and economic policy, and ultimately asset returns.

There's growth to be found when you know where to look. To learn more Click here.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Hamilton Reiner, head of U.S. Equity Derivatives here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss how investors can participate in the equity market.

Additional Description: Seeking to address several distinct investment needs? To learn more Click here.

So far this year, investors have had to contend with the implications of a regional banking crisis, a still-hawkish Fed, and rising expectations for a near-term recession. With economic risks elevated, the challenge for debt investors is to strike the right balance between risk and return in portfolios, while maintaining a focus on credit quality. These two risks – interest rate risk and credit risk – can have important implications for bond performance in an environment where the Fed may soon pivot to rate cuts, but likely in response to a U.S. recession. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Norelli, Portfolio Manager for several multi-sector fixed income strategies here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to dive into the outlook for the economy and interest rates, and what this all means for striking the right balance between credit and duration in fixed income portfolios.

 

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Richard Taormina, head of the Tax Aware Strategies team here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss how to protect your portfolio in a rising rate environment.

Seeking to balance tax-free income with capital preservation? To learn more Click here.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

After the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in December, many investors came into this year expecting multiple rate cuts. In fact, in early January, markets were pricing in over six full cuts in 2024 alone. Since then, sticky inflation has caused the Federal Reserve to reassert its hawkish tone, and the outlook for the economy, inflation and monetary policy has become increasingly uncertain. As a result of this, investors often ask us “When will the Federal Reserve begin cutting rates?”

To dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, will be interviewing the regular host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

When people think of the financial sector, they typically think of boring businesses like banks or insurance companies. But the ongoing global shift to electronic payments has created a new, growthier industry of financial technology companies. These businesses tend to feature recurring revenues, high free cash flow, and low capital expenditures. The financial services sector, which houses Visa and Mastercard, returned 28% last year, while the consumer finances sector, home to credit card companies like American Express and Capital One, returned 55%, outperforming the Magnificent 7. Continued growth in consumer spending, a steeper yield curve, and prospects for deregulation could support further upside, though there are risks if regulatory relief isn’t as significant as markets expect. Nonetheless, for investors looking for high-quality growth opportunities outside of mega-cap tech, fintech could certainly be a good place to start.

On this episode of Insights Now, my new co-host, Gabriela Santos, will be joined by David Chan, an equity research analyst covering payment and business services companies here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what David is seeing across this space.

Resources:

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

This episode kicks off our sixth season of Insights Now, entitled a “A Bond's Eye View", and we've decided to center this season around fixed income. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with slate of market strategists and portfolio managers to discuss the outlook for the Fed and other global central banks, the outlook for the dollar, diversifying within fixed income and how to think about bonds when positioning long-run investment portfolios.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for the Fed and opportunities within fixed income.

For more insights on fixed income investing, please visit our latest piece Bonds are Back. ​

Watch the video version on YouTube.

So far, this U.S. election cycle has been nothing short of turbulent and a looming source of volatility for much of this year. With the summer now behind us and November quickly approaching, investors should more seriously consider the implications of the upcoming election, and the opportunities and risks that may arise from it. That is why for the 11th season of Insights Now, titled “The policy and investment implications of the U.S. election,” David and I will discuss topics at the forefront of this election season, and explore the impacts proposed policies could have on the markets and economy. We’ll cover a range of topics, from immigration and tariffs to taxes and Fed independence, so tune in to stay informed on what could drive volatility heading into November, and how you can better prepare your portfolio for a post-election world.

Over the past year and a half, surging immigration has helped boost labor supply at a time when U.S. demographic trends were sluggish and recession fears were elevated, providing a nice tailwind for the labor market and the economy more broadly. At the same time, immigration has caused significant stress for migrants and the communities that they arrive in, making the issue one of the most politically sensitive topics this election season. For our conversation, we will focus on the magnitude of the recent immigration surge, discuss how long it can continue and explore what it might mean for the economy and corporate profits moving forward.

To dive deeper into all this, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, will be co-hosting this season and will be joined by the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the transformative landscape of venture and growth equity investing with a focus on technology and healthcare. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Patrick McGoldrick, Managing Partner of J.P. Morgan Private Capital, to discuss the evolution and current landscape of venture capital.

The conversation highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of venture capital, the importance of skilled management and the strategic approach J.P. Morgan employs in identifying investment opportunities.

Join us as we explore the competitive advantages J.P. Morgan Asset Management offers as a partner to its portfolio companies and uncover the potential of venture and growth equity investing in today's market.

 

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives, Principles of Alternatives Investing, and Alternatives 2025 Outlook
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version of this podcast on YouTube.

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, particularly generative AI, appear likely to revolutionize the way we work, innovate and create. This disruption can have significant economic implications, with the most significant likely to be accelerating labor productivity, and thus economic activity, after years of stagnation.

In the first episode of our summer series Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, and Michael Albrecht, Global Strategist on the Multi-Asset Solutions Team, to discuss the broad range of implications AI may have on labor markets, economic growth and the future investment environment.

As the importance of and attention to AI continue to grow, we are working hard at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to share our insights on the many questions regarding this technological wave. Please stay tuned for more insights by visiting the Market Insights homepage.

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Strategist on the Market Insights Team at J.P. Morgan, for a discussion on the Fed’s timetable for reducing accommodation as the economy shows signs of a durable recovery. Discussion topics include: comparison to the last “T-up to taper” period in 2013, technical challenges of reducing accommodation, the Fed’s involvement in MBS markets, drivers behind the decline in long-term yields, and the implications for fixed income investors.

 

The last few months have seen a swift and significant recalibration in markets. Inflation looks to be higher and stickier than previously assumed. The Fed has shifted more hawkish, now penciling upwards of seven hikes in 2022 and eyeing a faster pace of balance sheet reduction. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss asset allocation in an environment with higher uncertainty on interest rates and inflation. In light of recent geopolitical events , we are reminded that there is always the potential for unknown shocks to disrupt the investment outlook. Tune in to hear how Phil Camporeale is building resiliency in diversified portfolios to navigate today's bumpy environment and invest for the long haul.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Apple, Spotify and LinkedIn.

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Europe and UK Guide to the Markets publications, to discuss the outlook for Europe. After disruptions from “Brexit” seem have settled down, the onslaught of the pandemic paved the way for a togetherness of Europe not seen in decades. The EU Recovery Fund may be just the accelerant to growth in Europe that investors have been waiting for. Still, European stocks are trading at some of their cheapest levels relative to the U.S. in history, and proponents have hailed Europe as an investment opportunity for years with little reward, is this time any different? Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s thought leaders discuss the opportunities and challenges for Europe in the context of the post-pandemic global economy.

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for further fiscal stimulus with the infrastructure bill and budget reconciliation bill making their way through Congress. Discussion topics include: details of the infrastructure bill and Biden’s green energy ambitions, expectations for the larger budget reconciliation bill, the possibility of a debt-ceiling standoff, the 2022 midterms, and the potential for higher taxes and slower economic growth as we emerge from this period of extraordinary fiscal spending.

 

To read more about our thoughts on fiscal spending and other timely investment issues, check out our On the Minds of Investors blog: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/

Watch the video version on YouTube.

A long cycle of U.S. equity outperformance over international equities has left investors wondering, “why add international stocks to a portfolio?” However, as the global economy has turned a corner, so have prospects for international equities, and many international markets have performed well in 2024 so far. In fact, more than half of the 50 top performing companies this year are located outside of the U.S. In addition to favorable valuations, an improving economic backdrop and positive fundamentals should highlight plenty of opportunities across the globe.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to share her views on the benefits of allocating internationally.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we delve into the evolving landscape of alternative investments and their growing role in institutional portfolios. As the world of alternative investing becomes more accessible, we’ll explore how institutions have historically leveraged these assets for diversification and enhanced returns. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor within our North America Institutional business, to discuss key themes such as vintage year diversification, liquidity considerations, and the importance of strategic and tactical asset allocation.

 

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives, Principles of Alternatives Investing, and Alternatives 2025 Outlook
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we explore the world of timber as an alternative investment asset class. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Angela Davis, President of Campbell Global, a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to explore the unique benefits and opportunities timber offers to investors.

The discussion covers the perpetual lifecycle of timber forestry, the global footprint of Campbell Global’s forest management and the sustainable nature of timber as a climate-friendly product. The conversation also touches on the impact of tariffs, environmental regulations and the growing demand for sustainable building products.

Join us as we uncover the potential of timber in providing diversification and protection during periods of market volatility and learn about the exciting developments in carbon offsets and their significance in the timber industry.

 

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives, Principles of Alternatives Investing, and Alternatives 2025 Outlook
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube. 

While the broader economy has remained resilient this year, the real estate sector has faced its fair share of headwinds. Higher mortgage rates and home prices have weighed on the residential sector and tighter lending conditions following the regional banking crisis have created a challenging backdrop for commercial real estate. Additionally, it remains unclear whether pandemic-induced disruptions are merely temporary road-bumps, or the beginnings of a new “regime” within real estate.

For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Dave Esrig, a Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trajectory of the real estate market.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Going into 2023, almost everyone was predicting a recession within the next 12 months. However, what we saw was quite the opposite: the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% year-over-year pace, and the unemployment rate stayed below 4%. This positive momentum has continued into this year, although the economy is gradually cooling.

This robust economic performance has been puzzling because many of the typical recession indicators have been flashing red for a while. The U.S. had two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022, the yield curve remains inverted, and credit markets are notably tighter. Despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy has managed to stave off a recession and appears resilient to higher interest rates. This raises the question: how long can the U.S. continue to avoid a recession, and if one were to occur, what would likely trigger it?

To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

As we conclude this season, which we entitled a Bond’s Eye View of the world, a lot of core arguments for adding fixed income at the start of the year still remain in place. So far, the Fed has continued to hike rates but they may, finally, be at the end of their tightening regime, and if we are at peak rates, that means now is the time for investors to lock in yields before they fall. Bonds could also provide portfolios with important diversification properties as we eye this next downturn. So, as investors take a closer look at their cash and bond holdings, we hope this season has helped shed light on the different opportunities within bonds, and how to think about duration, credit and income within portfolios. To wrap up our last episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bob Michele, CIO and Head of our Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Group at JP Morgan Asset Management, for a conversation on his outlook for the economy, the Fed, and ultimately, bond markets. 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Deficit spending is not at all a new phenomenon in the United States. In fact, it is the norm, and the U.S. has run a budget deficit in 81 of the last 95 years, or 85% of the time since 1929. What is abnormal, however, is how large the pile of U.S. debt has grown relative to the broader economy. In fiscal year 2023, U.S. debt held by the public ballooned to $26.3tn, or a striking 97% of GDP, while the budget deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, and projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the debt dilemma may only get worse in the coming years. With the election quickly approaching, and last year’s debt ceiling and downgrade drama still fresh in investors’ minds, we often get asked “How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?”

To help us dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, interviews the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Ted Dimig, Head of Advisory and Core Beta Solutions, discuss model portfolios and how they can be used to benefit your clients.

Watch the video version of this podcast on our YouTube channel.

For our second episode of Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the next generation of investors. They dive deep into how this younger demographic is shaping the investment environment and driving key themes in the markets today.

For more resources on investing for the next generation please reach out to your J.P. Morgan representative and visit our website here.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Portfolio Managers from across J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help shed some light on the rapidly growing and increasingly important world of alternatives. These conversations will range from broad overviews of the entire opportunity set, to asset class-specific deep dives across private equities, private credit, real estate and more.

Since 1950, the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has delivered a strong annualized return of 9.3%. However, with elevated valuations across U.S. equities and low bond yields relative to history, returns from public markets may be less impressive moving forward. That said, for those willing to venture outside of the classic 60/40, adding a sea of alternatives to a portfolio can meaningfully improve outcomes and enhance returns. Of course, there are many different types of alternative assets, each with their own distinct characteristics.

For investors, understanding how to leverage these alternative strategies can make the difference between falling short of your long-term goals and surpassing them. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Pulkit Sharma, Head of Alternative Investment Strategy and Solutions here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the benefits of allocating to alternatives and the opportunities that he’s seeing across alternative asset classes.

For more resources, please visit the Guide to Alternatives.

Watch the video version on YouTube.  2020 and 2021 were banner years for the private equity market as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted fundraising, deal and exit activity. More recently, however, macro uncertainty and higher interest rates have put a damper on the asset class, which is highly dependent on leverage. Still, better-than-expected economic growth has supported recent performance. As companies, particularly in the Technology sector, wait longer to IPO, private equity has become an increasingly important way to get exposure to the high growth potential of early-stage companies. For decades, investors have used private equity to supplement their public equity allocations, enhancing returns, reducing volatility and providing access to secular market trends.

Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ashmi Mehrotra, the Co-Head and Portfolio Manager within the Global Private Equity Group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trends and investment opportunities she’s seeing in the asset class.

Time stamps: Introduction (00:00), Types of PE investments most focused on (1:00), Secondaries and Co-investments (1:32), Sectors and types of companies (6:59), Implications of slowing M&A and IPO activity (10:42), What dynamics are going to drive PE activity? (11:59)

Resources:

For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Investors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for an insightful conversation on navigating investing in troubled times.

For additional resources please visit Principles for successful long-term investing. We'd also love to hear your thoughts and any suggestions you may have on our podcast as we plan for our next season. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com.

On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the efforts against climate change and the investment opportunities that may underlie this transition towards a more sustainable future. As the need to fight climate change has become more pronounced, sustainable investing has increasingly come into focus for investors. This episode discusses the outlook for U.S. climate spending, Europe’s energy transition as the conflict in Russia-Ukraine flares up, China and its green initiatives, and the investment opportunities in agriculture, transportation, food and water, and energy efficiency. Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan’s thought leaders discuss these issues and more.

To learn more about the opportunities in sustainable food & water, read Meera Pandit’s latest On the Minds of Investors article.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Most of this season is devoted to questions investors ask us about where to invest. However, given an increased focus on building tax efficient, transparent and flexible portfolios, we are also often asked, “How should I invest.” While traditional investment vehicles have made it difficult to reach all these objectives simultaneously, the emergence of actively managed ETFs are helping to reshape the investment landscape as we know it. While this technology is still relatively new, active ETFs are quickly becoming a critical piece of the investor toolkit.

For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jon Maier, Chief ETF Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help us learn more about the history of active ETFs, and how they can be used to build stronger portfolios.

After significant monetary tightening over the last year, the Federal Reserve has now hiked rates all the way up to a range of 5-5.25%, but this tightening cycle may finally be at a close. With elevated risk of a near-term recession, markets are now expecting the Fed to pivot to rate cuts before the end of the year. For investors, an environment where economic conditions are looking precarious, and rates may soon be headed downwards, an active approach towards fixed income exposure is particularly important. On today's episode, we're going to focus on municipal bonds, which may be an effective way for investors to access high-quality and attractive tax-exempt yields in portfolios, particularly when heading into a downturn. To discuss this, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Richard Taormina, a portfolio manager for several municipal bond strategies here at JP Morgan Asset Management.

For more insights on the Guide to the Markets, visit the link here. ​

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Andrew Norelli, who serves as a portfolio manager for several global fixed income strategies, consider the impact of a reflationary environment.

In an already challenging year for markets, the energy crisis in Europe and recent fiscal actions by the UK government have rattled market sentiment and caused further disruption to currency and global bond markets. A higher reliance on Russian supply has put Europe in a particularly vulnerable position as winter approaches, with electricity prices soaring and increased risk of gas shortages. All of this, and its consequences for consumer spending and business confidence, has increased the likelihood of a near-term recession in Europe. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist, to shed some light on these issues and the outlook going forward for the UK and Europe. 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

U.S. equities have been on a tear in recent years. After climbing 26% in 2023, the S&P 500 finished up 25% on a total return basis in 2024, marking the best two-year stretch for the index since the late 90s. That said, with a select few companies driving the bulk of this rally, markets have become unbalanced, and concentration risk remains a significant issue heading into 2025. In times like these, active management is as important as ever. Our thirteenth season of Insights Now, titled “The Analyst’s Edge: A day in the life of equity research analysts,” will be all about the research backing our portfolio managers’ investment decisions. We will sit down with best-in-class buy-side equity research analysts from across J.P. Morgan, exploring a range of sectors and diving deeper into the most exciting trends driving markets today. With a new administration taking the White House, 2025 is likely to be another exciting yet volatile year for equity investors, so stay tuned to learn more about the opportunities we are following most closely.

At the heart of the recent equity market rally sits the semiconductor industry. Home to companies like Nvidia, Broadcom and other key beneficiaries of the AI frenzy, semiconductor stocks gained over 75% in 2024, far outpacing the broader market. That said, semiconductor applications extend far beyond just artificial intelligence. Companies serving traditional end-markets, like automotive, consumers, aerospace or defense, have lagged behind. While artificial intelligence will remain a key source of demand for the industry, improving demand from these other end-users could drive the next leg of the rally.

To share the latest on the semiconductor industry, Gabriela Santos, the new co-host, will be joined by Eric Ghernati, a technology-focused equity research analyst here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on Youtube.

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay private for longer, alternatives allocations are becoming increasingly necessary to access these high-growth areas of the market.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Kristin Kallergis, the Global Head of Alternatives for the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, to discuss all of these themes. Kristin’s team manages $180BN of private wealth across a wide array of alternatives solutions, giving her unique insight into the evolution of this market.

Timestamps: Introduction (00:00), Individuals vs. Institutions investing in alternatives (1:15), Liquidity needs within alternatives for individual investors (3:10), Selecting the right manager for alternatives (4:59), Popular asset classes within alternatives for individual investors (6:21), Niche asset classes (8:02), Private equity cash flow (10:12), Alternatives and secular themes (13:06)

Resources:

For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

The 2024 presidential election is well underway and has already delivered a host of surprising twists and turns. Against a backdrop of relatively stable economic growth and quite impressive U.S. stock market returns, the election adds a source of uncertainty for investors. Could the election outcome pose a risk to markets, or certain sectors and asset classes? And, in what can sometimes be a tense and polarizing time in society, how can investors navigate this uncertainty and invest with confidence this year?

In the final episode of this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help address these questions.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

As we usher in a new year, the investment landscape is almost certainly set to change. That’s why in our twelfth season of Insights Now titled, “Preparing for the path forward,” Dr. David Kelly will sit down with portfolio managers and strategists from across J.P. Morgan to discuss their key takeaways from 2024, and what they expect from the economy and markets in 2025. With the new year just around the corner, tune in to hear what opportunities we are most excited about, and what risks we are most mindful of, heading into the new year. With the U.S. election in the rear-view mirror and the Federal Reserve finally easing policy, the forces driving financial markets in 2025 could differ greatly from 2024. Policy uncertainty should step in for election uncertainty, and the monetary policy debate will center around how quickly the Fed will cut, not when it will begin cutting. Still, with the U.S. economy displaying impressive resilience and structural tailwinds supporting prospects abroad, there remains a wide menu of attractive opportunities for investors to consider across global stocks and bonds, and plenty of ways to diversify. That said, markets can move quickly. Investors striving for alpha should be active in portfolios and allocate to their highest conviction ideas instead of sitting passively on the sidelines. To share some of his highest conviction ideas for the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager in our Multi Asset Solutions group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources visit our website. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Manish Goyal from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who has over 25 years of investment experience in the tech industry and manages strategies that focus on digital evolution and innovation. The pandemic accelerated years of technological adoption and innovation, with strides made in the digitization of the consumer, integration of enterprise IT, and a massive migration of business, communication, and recreation to online platforms. As we look past the pandemic to a new normal, what are the drivers for technology from here? How can productivity continue to accelerate for businesses and workers? With valuations of Tech at levels not seen since the Tech Bubble, are asset prices for tech inflated? Are the recent regulatory actions from the Chinese government apart of a broader global trend that could pose a threat to Big Tech? Finally, where are the best opportunities for investors today?

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the advent of cryptocurrencies and whether this new asset class should have a place in portfolios. Can cryptocurrencies achieve their fundamental goal of being a store of value and payment system? How do cryptocurrencies function as an asset class, and is there a benefit them as an allocation in portfolios? Tune in to hear Dr. Kelly’s take on the matter, and other issues pertaining to ESG concerns, regulatory risk, and the broader blockchain revolution.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Michael Schoenhaut, lead portfolio manager of the JPMorgan Income Builder Fund discuss how to achieve income in today's low bond and dividend yields world.

This year had no shortage of surprises for investors, from strong returns in stock markets to the impressive resilience of the U.S. economy. Along the way, we’ve confronted all sorts of shocks: a new war in the Middle East, Washington dysfunction, even higher interest rates while the labor market and consumer have seen continued strength. As we look to 2024, there is cause for both concern and optimism. A soft landing is still in view, but there’s a number of risks that could potentially divert us from that path. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the economic outlook for 2024.

For more insights, read the full investment outlook here. 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

In recent years, the notion of “correct” portfolio construction has been challenged and diversification has become unpopular. Stocks and bonds have shown an increased propensity to move together, calling into question the efficacy of the classic “60/40” portfolio. Moreover, sustained outperformance in select segments of global financial markets has caused portfolios to drift away from target allocations and left many investors with little motivation to allocate elsewhere. However, with a new year comes new forces driving markets, and the winners of the past may not be the winners of the future. To prepare portfolios for any unforeseen risks that may arise in 2025, diversification remains the best option, although the ways in which investors can diversify may look different than before.

To share his thoughts on diversification in the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

So far this season, we've talked about the bond market from a number of different angles and in this episode we look at fixed income as a global asset class. In our recently launched 2Q23 Guide to the Markets, we have a chart that shows that the majority of global debt is international, with the U.S. share accounting for less than 40% today. Moreover, divergent central banks and brighter growth prospects overseas paint a different fundamental landscape than that of U.S. fixed income assets. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Iain Stealey, International Chief Investment Officer within the Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (GFICC) group, to dive into the outlook for global monetary policy and what this means for opportunities in international bonds.

 

Access the Guide to the Markets here. For more resources visit the On the Minds of Investors webpage. ​

This episode dives into positioning within fixed income. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bill Eigen, portfolio manager for an unconstrained fixed income strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bill offers a unique perspective, as his fund uses an opportunistic go-anywhere strategy that aims at delivering positive returns – no matter what’s happening in fixed income markets. In today’s particularly uncertain macro environment, Bill offers important insights on where he’s seeing opportunities, what areas he’s steering clear from and his latest thoughts on the markets and economy.

For more insights, tune into the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and follow David Kelly on LinkedIn.

 

 

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the recent developments in China and how they fit into the context of China’s long term growth story. While Chinese markets were the strongest outperformers in the pandemic-stricken year of 2020, they have since experienced significant bumps along the road as a result of a new regulatory crackdown and resurgence of coronavirus cases. This has weighed on equity market sentiment and caused some steep market selloffs. Is the China investment thesis still alive and well? Other discussion topics include: China’s 5-10 year growth outlook, its declining birth rate, President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on targeting inequality, U.S.-China relationship under the Biden administration, the situation with Taiwan, and the strength of Chinese fixed income markets year-to-date.  

 

Another way to access this podcast and all of our timely insights on the markets and economy is through the J.P. Morgan Insights App. Download via the App Store, or from our website linked here: https://awm-mi-services.jpmorgan.com/mi-services/html/app-store-redirect.html

Watch the video version on YouTube.

On previous episodes, we’ve discussed what’s called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We’ll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternatives, as well as her perspective on the trends we’re seeing in the market.

Resources:

For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

The global pandemic, supply chain problems and heightened geopolitical tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine have all raised questions about whether the long trend towards globalization is being thrown into reverse. Our 2023 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions, available now, features a paper that tackles the future of globalization. In this episode, Stephanie Aliaga interviews two of the authors from the paper, Dr. David Kelly and Kerry Craig, to discuss the potential future paths of globalization, and implications of a multi-polar world order for the global economy, inflation and valuations.

Episode topics: History and drivers of globalization (1:18), Russia-Ukraine (8:00), future paths of globalization (9:55), global energy transition (16:40), trade in goods vs. services (19:08), implications for the dollar (21:50), implications for inflation (24:15), regional winners and loser (26:45), China (30:32), valuations and sector outlook (32:15).

We also encourage you to also read the full report, linked here. 

Dr. David Kelly sits down with Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the investment outlook for 2022. Despite the continued pandemic, the U.S. economy saw a powerful recovery in 2021 across equity markets, the labor market, and overall economic growth. Yet in recent months, investors have had to weigh a series of risks to both economic growth and market returns: the Fed is shifting more hawkish, inflation has surged, and valuations sit at lofty levels. Looking forward to 2022, what does this backdrop mean for investing? Where are the best opportunities for tactical positioning and strategic long-term investing?

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

In this episode of Alternative Realities, we explore the dynamic world of alternative investments and their increasing accessibility to a broader range of investors. As these asset classes become more mainstream, we discuss their role in diversifying portfolios and enhancing returns.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by David Lebovitz, Managing Director and Strategist at the Multi-Asset Solutions Group, to discuss the inception and evolution of the Guide to Alternatives. They delve into the structure and importance of alternative investments, the integration of alternatives into multi-asset portfolios and the challenges of sizing these allocations.

 

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives, Principles of Alternatives Investing, and Alternatives 2025 Outlook
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

Financials, the second largest sector in the S&P 500, has had its fair share of ups and downs in recent years. As the Federal Reserve kicked off its aggressive rate hiking campaign in 2022, the yield curve inverted, loan growth slowed and M&A activity plummeted, all of which hampered earnings growth. Then, in March 2023, the failures of several U.S. regional banks sparked concerns about the health of the banking sector and commercial real estate market. The dust from this crisis gradually settled, which, in conjunction with Fed rate cuts and a resilient consumer, helped the sector gain over 30% in 2024. In fact, financial deregulation is now top of mind, with the Trump administration recently naming “regulatory dove” Michelle Bowman as the Federal Reserve’s next Vice Chair of Supervision. Prospects for increased deregulation, in addition to trends in consumer spending, will be key themes moving forward. Companies in financials tend to be represented in the value style and can be a good complement to growth exposure, especially the Magnificent 7.

On this episode of Insights Now, Gabriela Santos, is joined by Laura Huang, an equity research analyst covering financials at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss Laura’s day-to-day, and what she is seeing across her sector.

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist, discuss how low interest rates have made the fixed income environment even more challenging for investors.

Searching for income across a variety of asset classes? To learn more Click here.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

In this episode: 

The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a distinct role in portfolios.

Dr. David Kelly is joined by Shawn Khazzam, Head of Private Wealth Alternatives, Americas, to discuss the different ways clients are using alternatives to enhance the risk-reward profile of their portfolios. Shawn is responsible for the growth strategy, sales and distribution of the private market alternative investments offered by the firm.

Resources: 

For more insights on Alternatives visit our website here.  

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify 

 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Successful long-term investing requires both the flexibility to navigate the ever-changing market tides and an engine of long-term assets to carry you forward. In this episode, we’re going to talk about both—how investors can build portfolios to navigate volatile market environments and generate better long-term returns. Such an endeavor requires an in-depth understanding of portfolio composition, the drivers of risk and return and the right mix of asset classes that are best suited for different market environments.

In today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Corey Hill, Head of U.S. Portfolio Insights at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to dive into how his team is helping investors build stronger portfolios.

Stress test your portfolios in future market scenarios (Powered by research from Dr. David Kelly), visit the tool here.

In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for a discussion on the outlook for U.S. equities and what investors can expect from 3Q22 earnings season. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand have all posed considerable headwinds to U.S. equities and contributed to the large selloffs experienced in markets this year. As third-quarter earnings season kicks off, investors are hoping to gain insight into how earnings, revenues and margins are holding up as the macro environment gets rockier. While the risks dampening investor sentiment right now are very real, valuations have also come down significantly, paving the way for potentially very attractive expected returns going forward.

Watch the video version of the podcast on YouTube.

In this episode, we dive into alternative assets. Alternatives have seen incredible growth in the last decade, and have provided new strategies for investing in public and private markets, as well as better ways to generate alpha, income and diversification in traditional stock and bond portfolios. There are many kinds of alternative assets, and all have specific benefits and risks that require investors to understand each of them individually. Alternatives have also become much more accessible, and the growth of their overall asset size increasingly means that all investors—regardless of whether they’re actually invested or not—need to know what is happening in alternative markets.

For this conversation, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Anton Pil, Global Head of Alternatives, who has led the impressive growth of the alternatives platform at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

For more insights on alternatives, visit our website here. 

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Michael Conrath, Head of Education Savings at J.P. Morgan and author of the College Planning Essentials publication, to discuss the importance of saving for college and how to accumulate these savings most efficiently. What is a college education worth against the rapid rise in college tuition over the past few decades? Can families depend on financial aid or fiscal policy to cover most of these expenses? If you can’t rely on aid, how should families invest for high education expenses? What are the benefits of saving? Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan’s thought leaders discuss these questions and more.

Earlier this month, Americans went to the polls for the midterm elections. While some were expecting a red wave, what resulted was more of a red ripple with Republicans garnering a slim majority in the House and Democrats likely maintaining control of the Senate. In today's politically polarized climate, divided government means gridlock, and as the country grapples with high inflation, the potential for recession and heightened geopolitical tensions, this will have important implications for the kind of government action or lack thereof, we may see over the next two years. 

On this episode, I am joined by Michelle Mesack, Head of Federal Government Relations at JP Morgan Chase with extensive experience in government and public policy, as well as my colleague Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the main takeaways for investors from the midterm elections.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Bob Michele, CIO and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, discuss the outlook for fixed income and how investors can take advantage of opportunities.

Higher rates and rising inflation have created a particularly challenging environment for bonds this year, with the U.S. Agg. down a whopping 13% year-to-date. However, the selloff has also brought valuations down to their most attractive levels in years, and the backup in yields means bonds can once again provide investors with a reliable source of income and diversification. While economic uncertainties remain about the timing of a Fed pivot and the potential for U.S. recession, the case for bonds is as strong as it's been in over a decade.

 To discuss the outlook for fixed income markets and how investors can take advantage of these opportunities, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Bob Michele, CIO and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

The menu of investment solutions has evolved dramatically over the last 10 years, as innovation in financial planning tools has enabled the development of customized and flexible strategies. This episode discusses one of model portfolios. With increased efficiency, better customization, and greater flexibility, model portfolios are built to navigate unpredictable market cycles while maintaining a focus on the needs of investors. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Beth Nardi, Head of Model Portfolio Distribution at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help us learn about model portfolios: what they are, who they’re made for and the investment challenges they’re designed to address.

Many trends that persisted before 2020 have been accelerated by the COVID crisis, including dramatic shifts in demographics. Baby boomers, the largest generation ever, are aging and deaths are on the rise. Immigration has essentially halved compared to three years ago. And last year we saw the lowest birth rate ever.

For global markets, there is no long-term issue greater than the growth and evolution of China as an economic superpower. Tune in to hear David Kelly and Global Market Strategist, Gabriela Santos discuss the extraordinary progress in China’s economy.

Tune in to hear Dr. David Kelly and Michael Cembalest, two of J.P. Morgan’s most respected thought leaders, discuss the most pressing questions for investors as we head into the second half of 2021.

Disclosures

For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFID requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

 

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

 

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

 

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On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Sarah Kapnick, J.P. Morgan’s Climate Scientist and Sustainability Strategist, with a discussion on the sobering realities of climate change and the opportunities for policy and investment solutions. Discussion topics include: the UN climate body’s striking report on climate change, western droughts and the threat to food and power supply, agriculture inflation, the Biden Administration’s climate agenda, and the opportunities for sustainable investing and technological innovation to drive resilience and mitigation efforts.

Read Sarah Kapnick’s latest paper on western droughts here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/sustainable-investing/preparing-for-climate-change-how-drought-will-change-the-us-west/

As we wrap up our summer series, Market Movers, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist for the JP Morgan Investment Bank, to dive into the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Inflation has continued to moderate and economic data has proved resilient since the Fed’s July meeting, raising hopes for a soft-landing. Meanwhile, stock markets have continued to fare much better with investor sentiment resembling the start of a new bull market. For investors, many questions remain before we can call an “all-clear” on the economic outlook, and looking beyond the cycle, more structural changes may define long-term implications for the pathway of rates, growth and inflation. In this episode, two of JP Morgan’s most prominent thought leaders sit down to tackle many of these questions.

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues.  However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society.  In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts.  For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory policy may not always impact markets in the ways we’d expect.

To dive deeper into proposed regulatory policies and their potential impacts, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

As the world emerged from the pandemic, healthcare companies encountered several challenges, including declining COVID-19-related revenues, increased R&D expenses and rising labor costs, all of which impacted earnings. Although the sector began to recover from its prolonged earnings slump in 2024, performance remained sluggish. Healthcare stocks rose just 2.6% last year, with performance suffering most after the election. Importantly, the healthcare sector is comprised of a range of sub-industries and performance beneath the surface has diverged. For example, as the sector has addressed the backlog of elective procedures delayed during the pandemic, healthcare facilities and equipment manufacturers have performed well, while insurers have struggled. When seeking exposure to growth themes driving markets, investors often overlook healthcare in favor of other sectors. That said, whether it be GLP-1 drug development or AI-powered customized therapies, the reality is that the sector is at the epicenter of transformational change. Looking ahead, healthcare earnings are set to improve in 2025. However, policy actions taken by the incoming administration could meaningfully alter the sector’s landscape.

On this episode of Insights Now, Gabriela Santos, is joined by Holly Morris, an equity research analyst covering the healthcare sector and a portfolio manager here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ash Williams, Vice Chair of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Ash served as Chief Investment Officer and Executive Director of the Florida State Board of Administration, where he oversaw $250 billion in assets. He has extensive experience as an institutional investor in both public and private markets. Throughout their conversation, they cover a range of topics surrounding the importance of alternatives in a portfolio and the best approach to constructing a portfolio with alternatives.

Timestamps:

• Introduction (00:00:00)
• Risk and return within alternatives (01:27)
• Allocating capital toward alternatives (04:37)
• Process of picking specific alternatives (06:30)
• Institutional vs. individual portfolio allocations to alternatives (13:01)
• Importance of manager selection (15:40)
• Opportunities in alternatives today (17:06)

Resources:

For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing

Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

From Baby Boomers to Generation Z, each generation has faced their own unique set of investment challenges and opportunities during their lifetimes. While the bulk of wealth in the U.S. belongs to older generations, wealth amongst younger generations is growing rapidly, and they represent an increasingly important piece of the investment pie. As advisors prepare for the next generation of investors, the question of “how do, and how should, different generations invest?” has been top of mind. To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

For more insights visit our website here.

Watch the video version on YouTube.

Over the last decade, extraordinarily low interest rates have made it difficult for investors to generate income within portfolios. While rates have risen over the past two years, so has bond market volatility and a higher correlation between stocks and bonds has made the search for uncorrelated sources of income even more difficult. However, at the same time, infrastructure has built a strong track record of generating steady income while exhibiting low correlation to a traditional portfolio and less sensitivity to economic and market risks given the essential nature of the assets.

Against a backdrop of stretched valuations across risk assets and some uncertainty towards the outlook for monetary policy and inflation, there's no better time to discuss how investing in infrastructure can help build better portfolios. To share his views on the asset class, I'm joined by Nick Moller, an investment specialist and managing director within our Infrastructure investment group.

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Guide to Alternatives publication, to discuss the role of alternative assets in portfolios. Investors have been increasingly interested in alternatives, but for many, this is still unfamiliar territory. How should we think about investing in alternatives vs. traditional stocks and bonds? Against a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates where the outlook for fixed income looks increasingly challenged, could alternatives be a solution? Tune into hear two of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s thought leaders discuss the opportunities and challenges for this asset class in the context of this new inflationary environment.

On the first episode of Season 4, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what investors should expect from China in the Year of the Tiger and beyond. As China rings in the New Year, the road ahead holds substantial political and economic significance, from the Winter Olympics in Beijing to the Communist Party's 20th National Congress. China also faces substantial challenges in managing a potential property bubble, zero-tolerance approach to Covid and contentious international relationships. However, for investors, cheaper valuations and China's emphasis on growth stability with easy monetary and fiscal policies have supported the case for adding Chinese assets to portfolios. Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan's thought leaders discuss these issues and more.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

To read more from our thought leaders at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, visit our On the Minds of Investors blog.

Plenty has happened over the last few weeks—Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, and several other pressures emerged among regional banks. These events and their implications for credit conditions and monetary policy have sent markets through a series of twists and turns and raised questions about the risk of a US recession later this year. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Kelsey Berro, Portfolio Manager on our Global Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Group, for a discussion on these issues and how it's shaped both the outlook going forward and the fixed income landscape.

 

 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

The U.S election is just a few short weeks away, and many investors are picking through campaign-trail noise to decipher what policies each administration would pursue and their implications. With both Former President Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s campaigns promising hefty amounts of spending but few clues on how it will be funded, the longer-term trajectory for taxes, the deficit and federal debt is largely uncertain, but must be addressed. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt held by the public as a percent of GDP is expected to increase from a likely 98% in fiscal 2024 to over 120% in 2034. This assumes that provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sunset as scheduled and increase taxes by $4 trillion at the end of 2025. If these tax cuts are extended, however, debt held by the public could rise to 130% of GDP over the same period. Regardless, policies from either side of the aisle will impact the fiscal health of the United States, and as a result, the balance of risks and opportunities that investors must consider when building portfolios.

Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the different paths forward for fiscal policy.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

 

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

Within our financial system, the idea that the Federal Reserve should operate as an independent entity is fundamental. Importantly, the Federal Reserve is a political institution that is accountable to Congress, but also to the public, and its independence ensures it can conduct monetary policy in a way that it perceives to be in support of its dual mandate without undue political pressures. However, some candidates on the campaign trail have expressed interest in giving other branches of government a say in the Fed’s decision-making process, meaning that this election could have major implications for the ways in which monetary policy is conducted, its efficacy and the public’s confidence in the central bank.

To explore the implications of any changes to the Federal Reserve’s independence, Gabriela Santos is excited to be back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub

Listen to the audio version of the Insights Now podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

Despite uncertainty at the onset, 2024 is shaping up to be yet another impressive year for the economy and markets. A resilient consumer has put the U.S. on pace for another year of above-trend growth, and the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% so far, breaching $6,000 for the first time in history. That said, with a new year comes new opportunities as well as challenges. As the cyclical imbalances exacerbated by the pandemic and tight monetary policy continue to improve, economic conditions should normalize further in 2025, although a new element of policy uncertainty introduced by the incoming Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress threaten to cloud the outlook. While new policies might hurt prospects in some asset classes, they should benefit others, and investors have plenty to be excited about heading into the new year.

To dive deeper into our 2025 outlook, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Resources:

Explore the full Investment Outlook here. 

Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.

On previous episodes, we’ve discussed the muted return outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio, and the return enhancing potential of Private Equity and Venture Capital. As companies wait longer to IPO, investors are turning to private markets for access to the fastest growing part of a business’s lifecycle. In this episode, we’re going to explore the opportunities in private healthcare and biotechnology. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gaurav Gupta, Managing Partner of Life Science Private Capital within J.P. Morgan Private Capital. He is a neurosurgeon turned investor, and we’re so excited to have him here to discuss the trends he’s seeing in the market.

Timestamps:

• Typical healthcare investments (1:01)
• Investing in private healthcare vs. public healthcare (5:42)
• Private equity exits and valuations in healthcare (9:13)
• AI and drug development in healthcare (10:56)
• Regulatory changes within healthcare investment (16:06)
• Best opportunities in healthcare investment (18:33)

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing
• Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. 

The pandemic, geopolitical tension and climate change have revived industrial policy around the globe. In the U.S., the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPs act collectively represent the largest investment in infrastructure since the Cold War. In particular, there are significant opportunities in modernizing and expanding the electrical grid as decarbonization and data centers drive up demand. In addition to these secular tailwinds, core infrastructure’s steady, uncorrelated cash flows make it a valuable portfolio diversifier. Today, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Chris Simard, an Investment Specialist in the J.P. Morgan Infrastructure and Investment Group, to parse through all of this and more.

Resources:

• For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing
• Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Dr. David Kelly and Shane Duffy, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management discuss if investors should increase exposure to international equities.

Seeking to Invest in foreign developed markets and, opportunistically, in emerging markets? To learn more Click here.

For our next season, we want to hear from you as we will be counting down the top 10 questions investors have concerning the economy, the markets and investing. Please provide suggestions here.

This episode concludes the ninth season of Insights Now and marks the end of our deep dive into the world of alternatives. As investors continue to face elevated valuations across equities and abnormal interest rate volatility, the case for investing outside of traditional markets is as strong as ever. Whether investors are searching for outsized returns, stable income or diversification, alternatives offer a solution that can achieve these outcomes, and we hope this season helped bring those opportunities to life.

For our final conversation this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Anton Pil, the Global Head of Alternatives at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Anton sits in a very unique seat given he oversees our entire alternatives platform, so tune in to hear how he views the balance of risks and opportunities across the asset class.

For additional insights on alternatives visit our website here.