Forward Guidance (Blockworks)

This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing (06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over? (12:01) Trump Policy Impact (14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike (20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook (22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation (27:43) VIX & Market Positioning (31:46) China Risk (33:42) Ads (35:36) Systematic Volatility (37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus (39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities (43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path (46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks (51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending (52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook (54:58) Bessent Economic Plan (57:15) 1998 Framework (59:55) Productive Capacity Boom (01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.”  Tucker tells Jack Farley that China’s growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.’ role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (“Eurodollar”) dollar system, and central banks’ role as lenders of last resort.  __ “Global Discord” from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tucker’s work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about today’s guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve “too big to fail”. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to “Global Discord,” Tucker is also the author of “ Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both. Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system? Jack’s today is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Mac’s giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock. Filmed on March 16, 2023. ___ Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background (4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game" (11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime (21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly (27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s (29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame? (33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity) (41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues (50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs (01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System (01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief (01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure (05:20) "Froth" In Commodities (11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S. (19:41) VanEck Ad (20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be? (34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows (41:21) War And Finance (45:30) Bank of Japan (54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades (01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced (09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War (13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians (23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous (25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact" (27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel" (34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar (37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar (42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and World War 2 (48:00) What Makes A Great Power? (52:19) What Are China's Global Ambitions As A Great Power? (59:35) China & Taiwan (01:06:58) U.S.-China Economic Relations (Flow of Trade and Capital) (01:11:05) There Will Be A Huge Buying Opportunity In China Over Next 12-18 Months (01:13:27) U.S. Presidential Election (01:16:47) I Think There's No Way In Hell The Fed Raises Rates Over The Next Twelve Months (01:19:43) American Elites Are Not Very Smart __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 weren’t under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51) When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline.  Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last?  Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low” (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal? On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization (02:07) Financial Market Signals (05:37) China & The Global Economy (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem (15:15) US Economic Resilience (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy? (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities (30:28) Comparing Major Economies (37:18) China's Economic Advantages (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money (49:44) China's Growing Influence (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation (01:10:31) European Economy (01:11:58) Asian Economies (01:14:48) Camp Kotok __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “KEDM promotion” (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) “KEDM promotion” (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was “on hold.” Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his “equity bottom checklist” with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a “blow-out” of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:36) Base Case For 2023 (04:14) Where's The Recession? (08:11) Liquidity (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak (24:21) Interest Rates (28:05) Cruve Ad (29:08) China (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1) (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold" (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2) (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3) (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull market in stocks and they both have been guests on The Forward Guidance podcast. That is where the similarities end, as Michael and George have entirely different explanations for what is driving the surge in equity prices. While Michael is renowned for his models on Global Liquidity and closely tracks the changes in central bank balance sheets (most notably the Fed’s), George dismisses the Fed entirely and thinks that monetary authorities have effectively zero influence on the economy and stock market. What ensues is a heated debate not just about what is driving the stock market and economy but about the very nature of money and credit creation itself. Recorded on April 10, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Michael’s Substack https://t.co/7jRGW9iR0S George’s Substack https://themonetaryfrontier.substack.com/ Michael’s Book https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Jack's Intro (02:28) Michael's Opening Statement (06:09) George's Opening Statement (18:17) The Draining of The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (24:59) VanEck Ad (26:03) (28:38) The Portfolio Rebalancing Theory (I.E. How Quantitative Easing (QE) Theoretically Works) (45:21) Duration Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuing Longer-Maturity Paper (51:39) Spread Between Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yield And 10-Year Treasury Yield (01:12:09) There's A Distortion In The Yield Curve, That's For Sure" (01:17:47) Beyond The Fed's Balance Sheet (01:23:18) Jack's Comment On Cause And Effect (01:25:07) Views On Markets: George And Michael Remain Very Bullish __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 17:39 VanEck Ad __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework (04:56) GDP & Economic Growth (14:11) Interest & Payment Expense (16:17) Exports (17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together (19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates (23:31) Manufacturing Sector (30:31) The Business Cycle (35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators (38:21) Inflation (40:25) Liquidity Breakdown (53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy (56:42) Prometheus Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16) Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970’s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009. LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting YouTube Channel @zulaufconsulting __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over (12:47) Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced (29:31) Transition To Bear Market (35:25) Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession? (37:23) Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality (40:27) Will Inflation Reaccelerate (42:01) Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market (46:07) U.S.-China Relations (50:34) Waiting On China's Economic Recovery (53:53) Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue? (56:34) Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.  VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Stock Market Rally Has "Room To Go" But Tetot Is "Cautious" Around Nosebleed Valuations (06:11) Nvidia's Data Center Business Is Cyclical, Notes Tetot (07:53) AI Is A Bit Overhyped, Argues Tetot (18:47) The Business Cycle Is Still Digesting The Excess (21:29) VanEck Ad (22:14) The Fed's Balance Sheet (24:37) When Will The Fed Start To Cut Rates? (33:42) Crypto (38:57) Key Learnings From Last Crypto Cycle (47:35) Uranium (54:56) Remi's Long Idea On Homebuilders __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called “inflation-trades” (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself. Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplify’s new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates. Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99 Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ __ BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack __ Two papers Green discusses: Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, “In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967 Lasse Heje Pedersen, “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071 _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"

This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book, “When Markets Speak.” McDonald argues that the world is on the precipice of a higher-inflation regime that will cause a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital from technology stocks to producers of natural resources such as oil, gas, copper, Uranium, and gold. Filmed on March 27, 2024. __ Follow Lawrence McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/Convertbond McDonald’s latest book, “When Markets Speak”: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities/dp/0593727495 McDonald’s first book, “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers”: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=9F5dM&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=wepDC&pd_rd_r=e57c52f3-38c7-4f25-bf51-8a804dfd2f13&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) The End Of Austerity: Huge Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Has Created A New Inflationary Age (08:07) A Multi-Trillion Migration Of Capital Is Underway, Argues McDonald (08:46) A New Commodity Bull Market Is Forming (15:58) Oil & Gas (18:09) Uranium (21:22) China (27:17) Is NVIDIA A Bubble? (33:22) VanEck Midroll (34:05) What This Means For Broad Index Investors (38:37) Financial Repression And Debt Jubilee (48:16) The Banking System (50:26) Recession Risk (01:01:55) How To Listen When Markets Speak __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake (10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps (14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence (17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull (26:24) Ads (28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out? (34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (44:29) December Fed Decision (47:14) The Oil Market (52:01) Peace Dividend __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct “The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments (05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown (07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy (17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal (19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal (23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy (25:36) DAS Promo (26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity (33:23) Target Date Funds (36:17) Trump Administration Goals (51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields (59:22) Market Predictions (01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) NFP Report Takeaways (14:50) Quant Corner (24:31) Ledger Ad (25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding? (37:31) QRA (48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died” (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. You can go to Public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds, and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields we’ve seen since the year 2000. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. -- On today's episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG for a discussion on what to expect from the Fed, economy & markets in 2024. Will the Fed be able to avoid a recession as markets price in a soft landing? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This podcast is sponsored by Public. Rate discussed is gross of fees. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Treasuries on Public are available to US members only. Brokerage Accounts for treasury securities are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Banking services and the Bank Account are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Full disclosures can be found at https://public.com/forwardguidance. -- Follow Danielle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What To Expect In 2024 (07:52) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (14:35) What Caused The Powell Pivot? (28:38) Will The Fiscal Support End In 2024? (42:55) Recession vs The Soft Landing (50:23) Heading For A Credit Event (54:39) Positioning Into 2024 (57:32) Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers’ Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers’ Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on crypto’s rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else. Filmed on December 21, 2022. -- Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Framework Ventures on Twitter https://twitter.com/hiframework Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market (10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana (12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023 (16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto? (24:53) Permissionless Ad (25:53) Big Tech (27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems (35:59) Bitcoin (41:08) Valuation of Eth (45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto (48:25) Tether (50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market (52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse (59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX? (01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month? (01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022.  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07) Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves (03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump (09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing (16:05) Ledger Ad (16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio (20:19) Post-GFC Financial System (23:46) Repo Market Tensions (35:01) Ledger Ad (35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing (39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates (44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite (50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy (01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity (01:07:59) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landing (19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning (26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24? (30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle (36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon (38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets (49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict (59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate (01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today (01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze (06:26) Risk Management Strategies (17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced? (25:48) Ads (27:32) Volatility Seasonality (30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation (40:35) Shift In Global Collateral (52:21) Volatility Is Vitality (56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof) (17:21) VanEck Ad (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the “pain trade” is here, says Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his “Project Zimbabwe” framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks’ Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance --  Follow Aidan Garrib on Twitter https://twitter.com/AidanGarrib Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Understanding The Chinese Economy (07:13) China's Stock Market Has Been Flat For A Decade (13:46) Understanding China's Shadow Debt (19:01) China's Real Estate Bubble (25:06) China's Crackdown On Credit (28:19) Is There Systemic Risk In China? (32:16) What's Happening With The Yuan? (36:32) China Is In Recession (43:47) China's Global Reserve Currency Ambitions (50:05) Finding Opportunities In China (57:37) The Bond Market Sell-Off (01:03:50) The Outlook For Equities (01:06:05) Is The U.S Heading For A Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect

The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a “man vs. machine” conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is). __ Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Brent's Market Views (06:56) Brent's Dollar View (13:44) VanEck Ad (14:26) Interview Continues (17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop" (19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way (36:46) Permissionless Ad (37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market (43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze (48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar (01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports? (01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large (01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization? (01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But that’s only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a “discount rate,” which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an “equity risk premium.” Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022. Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation -- Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.  Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets. -- Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions (13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023 (20:33) Curve Ad (21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle? (29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish (31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance? (36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions (47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect (49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's (56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023 (01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) Bitcoin

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET. -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more. __ Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency (18:53) Permissionless Ad (19:51) Interview Continues (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields? (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money? (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Managing Money During 2022 (04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point" (10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management (15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed (17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There (24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers (30:24) Permissionless Plug (31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada (37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession? (40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift" (44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong (52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking (57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio (01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle (09:24) Is this Cycle Different? (12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles (18:20) The Cyclical Economy (21:52) The Housing Sector (26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing (30:44) Measuring the Labor Market (34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims (39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims (42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions (47:12) The Unemployment Rate (50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve (57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation? (01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates. Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors.   Registration Cost: $850.00 Special Discount: Email Kim Gray – kim@zelmanassociates.com to register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year  Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives  Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic  Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities  A Who’s Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance     About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 John Comiskey’s Substack: https://johncomiskey.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022) (06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023 (09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills (15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023 (22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects) (27:20) VanEck Ad (36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury (43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large? (53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes (59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond (01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect (01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable? (01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system? Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or “higher-er for longer-er” interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022.  __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.” Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushina Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets (03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics (05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market? (11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed (14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets (17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs (26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank (29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy (30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies (34:32) Making Money In EM FX (36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates (38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX (41:25) Diversification In EMs (46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa (51:48) Importance Of India (59:40) Investing In China (01:04:49) China's Growth Model (01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves (01:25:01) De-Dollarization __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return.  Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument
44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd  And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code “Blockworks” for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month.  ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Stocks Vs. Bonds (05:19) Upside Downside Capture On Bonds (08:24) Overweight Stocks Over Bonds (21:44) VanEck Ad (22:29) Stock Market Valuations (30:51) Return Attribution In Equity Portfolio (37:26) Breadth In Stock Market (45:00) Notion of "Equity Duration" Is Mostly Just A Narrative (49:11) Comparisons To Dot Com Bubble (53:40) Bond Market Outlook on Credit & Duration Risk (55:55) The Fed And The Wealth Effect As The "Third Leg Of The Monetary Policy Stool" (57:01) Are Financial Conditions Tight Or Loose? (01:01:52) Investing With An Income Focus __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this! Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor?  (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is “wildly” bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT).  Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022. -- Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show: “The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf “Fire Insurance - Revisited”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off  (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices  -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto. — Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics (05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets (08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto (14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates (21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime (25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus (27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto (30:49) Economic Uncertainty (33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity (36:37) The Fed's Credibility (40:19) Economic Bifurcation (45:10) History of Asset Bubbles (46:48) Generational Wealth (51:02) Price Predictions — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Implied Forward Rates 03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession 07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance 11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields 13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity 18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread 23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate 26:11 The Fed's Master Plan 29:43 Permissionless Ad 30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation? 35:19 Labor Market & Immigration 38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced? 40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt 42:03 Market Opportunities 44:33 Equities & Rates 47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation. ___ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Mike Green’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report (05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now? (06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher (28:35) VanEck Ad (29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces (32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies? (42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining? (48:40) Permissionless Ad (49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger (53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More (01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices (01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup" (01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) The QT Taper (05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting? (09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (29:53) Consumer Spending (33:11) Layoffs in 2024 (36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest (38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit (47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine (51:24) Basel III Endgame (56:33) Dissents __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant (03:07) Quest Hedge Fund (04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy (11:50) Trend Following Examples (16:47) Permissionless Ad (17:44) Interview Continues (19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded (22:52) Statistical Arbitrage (27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage (32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds (33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches (39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies (41:34) Private Market Investing (48:29) Volatility Strategies (54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook (01:02:26) Risks To Quest (01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nation’s largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks. Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks (03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero (10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses (14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market (21:17) The Importance of Collateral (26:20) Permissionless Ad (33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency (“dollar dominance”), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023. Dr. Eichengreen’s 2023 Jackson Hole paper, “Living With High Public Debt”: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-structural-shifts-in-the-global-economy/ More information on Dr. Eichengreen’s work: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter https://twitter.com/B_Eichengreen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic (06:07) Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered (14:08) Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle? (19:58) How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned? (26:31) Central Banks Are Buying More Gold (30:31) What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World (40:39) Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (46:05) Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay? (49:16) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) (59:49) Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called “breadth weakness” occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase “Magnificent 7” is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a “typical” Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024. __ Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not (04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well (09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000) (12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020 (16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration (20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens (22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples" (22:29) VanEck Ad (24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle (30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles (36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI) (43:17) Quality As A Factor (45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date" (49:37) Size and Value As Factors __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world. Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly. -- Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.