Dive into the complete episode list for Eurodollar University. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.
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Pub. Date
Title
Duration
16 Oct 2021
Reading Jeff Snider: US Bank Loans Shrinking in 2021 [Ep. 128, Macropiece Theater]
00:24:00
Bank balance sheets are expanding in 2021, which is great news if you believe credit is modern money. But a closer look reveals banks are PILING into the SAFEST assets while beating a RETREAT from loans (real economy money). We haven't seen this in three generations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
IT'S BEGUN: The Biggest Threat To Your Job Is Here
00:21:20
Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.html
Bloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployed
CNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing it https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.html
Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work World https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2
Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdf
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/
Everyone Gets This Wrong About Interest Rates And The Stock Market
00:18:16
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Blackrock official says stocks are in a really good place, not too Fed hot, not too economy cold. Total Goldilocks. Equity investors, however, tend to fall into these cyclical traps. It will just be weak enough to back of Jay Powell, but not too weak as to cause major damage. And if the landing does get too hard, that the Fed can always cut rates to save the day.
A word of caution: the landings are always hard and the Fed never saves the day.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg: Surveillance: Wall Street Enjoys a YOLO Moment After Goldilocks Jobs Report https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-03/wall-street-traders-savor-yolo-moment-after-goldilocks-jobs-report
NYTimes Opinion: Economy a Collection of Vibes, Feelings [Ep. 274, Eurodollar University]
00:24:00
If you all feel bad about the economy than the economy will be bad and you all are acting weird, so says a recent New York Times opinion column. We discuss whether concrete economic signals / data precede "vibes". Also, is the Federal Reserve the key "vibes" emitter?
****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
****DISCLOSURES**** Emil Kalinowski is acting as three-ring circus ring master; he can neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons on this show. Mister Kalinowski is neither employed by AFA nor does he receive any compensation from AFA -- not even the expensive gift basket that comes with those fancy nuts. El señor Kalinowski does not offer investment advice. Nevertheless should you torture a statement by him into taking on the form of advice, or perhaps the shape of a suggestion -- let's even say a contortion resembling a hint -- AND then act on le monsieur Kalinowski's 'recommendations'? Well, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY! Even if you do the opposite of o senhor Kalinowski's 'advice' you will ALSO lose money -- it is some kind of a paradox (both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating). The Kalinowski's only guidance is that you do not listen to him for any purpose other than deep, rapid eye movement sleep.
25 Dec 2024
Global Bonds Are MOVING: Here’s What Central Banks Don’t Want You to Know
00:20:20
Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY Term Premia calculations https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactive
Bloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021
ECB Rate Hike is Kiss of Economic Death [Ep. 269, Eurodollar University]
00:29:00
The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the European Sovereign Debt crisis appeared shortly after. Here we go again, a July 2022 rate hike, same reasons; what happens next?
****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
Emil Kalinowski is acting as three-ring circus ring master; he can neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons on this show. Mister Kalinowski is neither employed by AFA nor does he receive any compensation from AFA -- not even the expensive gift basket that comes with those fancy nuts. El señor Kalinowski does not offer investment advice. Nevertheless should you torture a statement by him into taking on the form of advice, or perhaps the shape of a suggestion -- let's even say a contortion resembling a hint -- AND then act on le monsieur Kalinowski's 'recommendations'? Well, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY! Even if you do the opposite of o senhor Kalinowski's 'advice' you will ALSO lose money -- it is some kind of a paradox (both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating). The Kalinowski's only guidance is that you do not listen to him for any purpose other than deep, rapid eye movement sleep.
30 Jun 2021
Reading Jeff Snider on Central Bankers Having No New Ideas
00:21:00
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observed are INTANGIBLE. Sweden's Riksbank observes collateral shortages. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHAT---------- Because Central Bankers Have No Clue What Else To Do: https://bit.ly/3xXInFx The Liquidity of the Government Bond Market – What Impact Does Quantitative Easing Have? Evidence from Sweden: https://bit.ly/3w8iWjm
A Globally Systemic Central Bank Is Hiking Rates In A Recession
00:17:56
A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quarters https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spending
Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/
Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slows https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154
The Fed and Treasury have seen enough debt ceilings to develop a playbook that can be pieced together from past FOMC transcripts and Congressional subpoenas. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell's Press Conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMU
CNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conference https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.html
Politico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levers https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338
Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
BLS Business Employment Dynamics Summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm
The Myth of Paul Volcker and the Powerful Fed [Eurodollar University, Ep. 221]
00:36:00
Paul Volcker is widely credited in ending the 1970s Great Inflation with stratospheric rate hikes, purposefully pushing the USA into recession. Balderdash! Volcker blinked when rates spiked (secretly trying to unwind them). And it was stratospheric oil prices that brought on recession (as 'all' contemporary accounts agreed).
----EP. 221 REFERENCES---- The Fed Will Do What It Does, and It Won't Matter: https://bit.ly/3Mmj5YT Economists Criticize Volcker: https://nyti.ms/37yZ2I2 Few Expect Relief From Higher Rates: https://nyti.ms/3Lg6sP2 Banks ‘Profitability Tested: https://nyti.ms/3Ovc9KM Price Indexes Stir Complaints: https://nyti.ms/3L8pIxz Schultze and Jackson Differ Over Inflation: https://nyti.ms/3vGp9o6 Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
-----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Sarah, the Illstrumentalist: https://www.epidemicsound.com/artists/sarah-the-illstrumentalist/ "Multidimensional": https://www.epidemicsound.com/track/s0k07RIIz2/
03 Dec 2023
Can The Government Keep Spending Money Forever?!
00:19:53
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up.
This is BY FAR The Biggest Risk To The Global Economy
00:18:30
China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Full text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year message https://english.news.cn/20231231/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611/c.html
Nikkei Analysis: China's spy agency now watches for doomsayers https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-s-spy-agency-now-watches-for-doomsayers
CNN China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worse https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/economy/china-economy-challenges-2024-intl-hnk/index.html
Bloomberg China Home Sales Fall Again as Policy Shifts Fail to Stem Decline https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-31/china-home-sales-fall-again-as-policy-shifts-fail-to-stem-decline
Here's What Happens to the Stock Market After the Fed Cuts Rates
00:18:52
FedEx's CEO admitted some truth about the Fed's rate cut this week, and the stock was immediately punished for it, dropping 15% on Friday. This raises a bunch of questions, starting with: what happens to stocks in general when the Fed cuts rates? The answer is not what you think.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC FedEx quarterly profit disappoints as demand for speedy delivery wanes https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/fedex-reports-drop-in-quarterly-earnings-on-lower-demand-for-priority-services.html
Robert Shiller 2013 Nobel Speculative Asset Prices https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdf
Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned out that Economic Hades was about 18 months away then. What about now?
------EP. 188 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Eurodollar futures curve has deepened AND broadened its inversion. 00:39 The Eurodollar yield curve is like the US Treasury yield curve but global. 02:38 The E$ curve had been getting flatter heading into December 2021, then it inverted. 05:13 The E$ curve raised itself higher in January 2022, good news? No, the inversion stayed. 08:29 The Federal Reserve does not think much of markets, like eurodollar futures. 10:31 Bill Dudley, manager of the Fed's portfolio, blew off the E$ market in 2007. 14:15 The E$ curve inversion spread from one point to many contracts in February 2022. 19:09 What does it mean when Eurodollar future contracts are grouped by color (packet)? 22:14 OUTRO: The Eurodollar market does not believe Fed rate hikes are justified.
---------THE TEAM--------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "When To Stop" by Lofive from Epidemic Sound.
------FIND THE TEAM------- Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
Financial Times says Fed is Central - We Disagree [Eurodollar University, Ep. 186]
00:25:00
Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed.
------EP. 186 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Federal Reserve will control inflation; Jeff reacts. 01:25 The Federal Reserve will use the labor market data to support rate hikes. 04:24 Are market based inflation expectations for sub-three percent inflation in five years? 06:42 Does the bond market believe the Fed will be able to tame inflation? 10:41 Real rates are "sharply higher" says the FT; relative to the lowest ever says Jeff. 13:24 The FT works backwards to explain the market's behavior to keep the Fed central. 14:54 US employment figures for Nov-Dec '21 and Jan '22 received massive seasonal adjustments. 18:15 OUTRO: The bond market does not believe too much money has caused price increases.
----EP. 186 REFERENCES---- Bond market signals room for Fed to raise rates without stalling economy: https://on.ft.com/366WEXR More Questions Than Clarity On Labor Inflation Pressure As FOMC Seeks Justification For Taper/Rate Hikes: https://bit.ly/3oHiWpr In Advance of Payroll Friday, ADP Payrolls Go Cold: https://bit.ly/3uHxclV Payrolls and Population, What A Mess: https://bit.ly/3GIKlxx Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
-----SEE ALL EPISODES----- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
---------THE TEAM--------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is CABO by Superintendent McCupcakes from Epidemic Sound.
------FIND THE TEAM------- Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
Interest Rate Cuts Are Here, Here's What You Need To Know
00:17:36
Consumers can't afford groceries, so how is a lower reverse repo rate going to help them? Now that it is settled the Fed will cut rates next week, everyone wants to know by how much. The real story is what's behind the cuts in the first place and what that means for financial markets as well as the economy. It isn't the murder hornet rate.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
China's Economic Crisis Just Got a Whole Lot Worse
00:19:42
Authorities in China continue to do everything they can to derail the country's globally synchronized bond rally. It continues to hit record low yields anyway in spite of increasingly desperate government efforts. But why? More ugly data on banks, incomes, and Chinese jobs shows bonds are right, and not just about what's already happened to this point.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China Xinhua Xi Jinping presided over a symposium on comprehensively promoting ecological protection... https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202409/content_6974190.htm
Bloomberg Xi Urges Efforts to Hit 5% Growth Target Amid Rising Doubts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-12/xi-urges-efforts-to-hit-annual-growth-target-amid-rising-doubt
Bloomberg PBOC’s China Bonds See Trading Surge in Sign of Intervention https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/pboc-owned-china-bonds-see-trading-surge-in-sign-of-intervention
Bloomberg China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/china-s-deflationary-spiral-is-now-entering-dangerous-new-stage
Americans' hopes and dreams of better opportunities have utterly crashed and burned over the past five months. This isn't about more price increases, rather how those in the past have combined with recession prospects to rob the future. The 2020s have taken the worst aspect of the 2010s and added more trouble on top.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Larry Summers The Age of Secular Stagnation https://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/
Larry Summers IMF Accepting Secular Stagnation https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/larry-summers-on-secular-stagnation
1940s were CPI Spike; 1960s were Inflation; What About 2020s? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 201]
00:29:00
The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today?
-----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
---------THE TEAM--------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Hong Kong Story" by Lazer Boomerang.
------FIND THE TEAM------- Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
Market meltdowns took center stage and attention away from March payroll estimates. They were overshadowed by a rise in unemployment which further cemented growing financial concerns the economy has already fallen into the bad case. That point has previously been raised by a key factor almost everyone had missed.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Companies around the economy are increasingly warning about the negative effects of the goods recession, one after another missing revenue and sales targets/expectations. The latest from several of the largest global businesses point to deepening macroeconomic setbacks. Even the automobile industry is showing signs of serious weakness, starting with pricing. No surprise commodity markets are sharply lower in spite of supply factors as the downturn is set to spread.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-2024-markets-has-changed
EuroNews Nestlé downgrades sales outlook and looks to new products for growth https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/07/25/nestle-downgrades-sales-outlook-and-looks-to-new-products-for-growth
CNBC Unilever pops 6% on margin guidance raise, Ben & Jerry’s spinoff on track to complete by end of 2025 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/unilever-pops-6percent-on-guidance-raise-says-ben-jerrys-spinoff-on-track.html
STMicroelectronics Reports 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results https://investors.st.com/static-files/9f07c6a1-5da9-49cf-8a95-4c301436fb0b
The Detroit News Ford CFO says growing dealer inventory 'worries me' https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/06/11/ford-cfo-john-lawler-growing-dealer-inventory-worry/74056579007/
J.D. Power-GlobalData U.S. Automotive Forecast for July 2024 https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20240726147635/jd-power-globaldata-us-automotive-forecast-for-july-2024
CNBC U.S. crude oil on pace for third weekly decline as China demand outweighs U.S. growth https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/crude-oil-prices-today.html
CNBC U.S. crude oil falls nearly 2% to lowest levels in six weeks https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oil-prices-drop-to-lowest-levels-in-more-than-a-month.html
Crude flips again just as retailers warn and business sales drop.
00:18:49
The expression "slowly at first, then all at once" can describe an economy's descent into nasty recession. There are warning signs all over starting with WTI back in contango. Major retailers have nothing good to say about the state of their customers. US total sales are already declining and in nominal terms.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
AP: Home Depot sees first annual sales decline in more than a decade as housing streak ebbs, rates jump https://apnews.com/article/home-depot-outlook-sales-weather-611422a9301e13bb797c4fc15ba1e02c
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
13 Nov 2023
“One Of The Worst Bear Markets In History Already Happened” Michael Green
00:28:32
#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions
Eurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike Green Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99
The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half?
And with credit now outright falling for them, it only gets much worse from here.
00:18:29
#Consumer #spending is down already and now we're getting data which shows by how much, #recession. There's no #inflation here. Disney theme parks are empty, consumer #credit is actually contracting, the bad news is just getting started. Steve Van Metre nailed it when he pointed out services and vacation weakness on this channel just a couple months ago.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ: Disney World Hasn’t Felt This Empty in Years https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-world-crowds-universal-studios-florida-36b0a579
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
21 Dec 2023
Another MAJOR Central Bank Just Pivoted
00:19:31
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1
Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here’s why it matters https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/bank-of-japan-loosens-ycc-cites-greater-flexibility-and-jolts-markets.html
Bloomberg Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Near https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/boj-rate-hike-bets-ramp-up-as-ueda-and-himino-spook-traders
Bloomberg BOJ Deputy Chief Hints That Negative Rate End May Be Closer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/boj-s-deputy-chief-hints-that-end-of-negative-rate-may-be-closer
CNBC Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties; yen tumbles https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/boj-bank-of-japan-sticks-to-ultra-easy-monetary-policy-in-light-of-high-uncertainties.html
Lyn Alden's August newsletter focuses on the ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and commodities. In many ways, the 2020s decade continues to mirror the 1940s in terms of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and de-globalization. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
FOMC May 1997 Meeting Presentation Materials https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19970520material.pdf
Foreign Banking Organizations in the United States and the Price of Dollar Liquidity https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/foreign-banking-organizations-in-the-united-states-and-the-price-of-dollar-liquidity/
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
26 Sep 2023
This Just Made China a Threat To The Global Economy
00:18:22
If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page
#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #creditcrunch #china #yuan More troubling developments from China's big real estate developer. Unfortunately for us, for everyone, these growing woes from over there are corresponding with indications of eurodollar tightening meaning everywhere. CNY gets weaker no matter how much authorities throw at it; Japanese bills are up (price); US$ swap spreads compressing more; Italian to German bond spreads rising; even large US banks are borrowing more to rebuild cash cushions.
It's Over: China's Currency Has Never Done This Before
00:19:05
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring
China's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first time ever? Might the central bank relent like it usually does? More important than those, what does all this mean? The simplest "equation" in all economics holds the answer.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Japan Times Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarm https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/04/03/markets/former-currency-chief-warns-of-yen-intervention/
We know there are Fed rate cuts coming in September and that there is very good chance it will be 50 bps. Could policymakers also surprise by ending QT (not that it matters)? Might that be a first step toward the next QE? It's not as far-fetched as you may think; after all, some at the Fed were talking rate hikes just two months ago.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Fed’s Waller Says Jobs Data ‘Requires Action,’ Open to Big Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-06/fed-s-waller-says-jobs-data-requires-action-open-to-big-cut?
Repo Fail Swarms Are Back - Shadow Money Warning [Eurodollar University, Ep. 199]
00:23:00
Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monetary conditions. They're happening now.
-----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
---------THE TEAM--------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Hong Kong Story" by Lazer Boomerang.
------FIND THE TEAM------- Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
This is not some future problem. It is happening right now.
00:18:34
We can actually see #deflation right now in the form of falling producer prices. Europe reported a record drop in its PPI which has major implications starting with #recession and what this means for #inflation. Declining oil and producer prices today are linked to consumer prices and the economy tomorrow.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices? https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1005/1995-Do%20Producer%20Prices%20Lead%20Consumer%20Prices%3F.pdf
The Commodity–Consumer Price Connection: Fact or Fable? https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/95v01n3/9510blom.pdf
Building A Pipeline Between Producer and Consumer Prices https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-38
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
25 Feb 2024
The Fed's Money Printing (What You Must Understand)
00:18:59
The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008 https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2008/vol93no4_quinn_roberds.pdf
FRB Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bms/1914-1941/BMS14-41_complete.pdf
FOMC Transcript July 1981 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdf
FOMC Transcript October 1979 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791006meeting.pdf
FOMC Transcript March 1991 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf
This current crisis is the last piece to fall into place not the first one in the puzzle.
00:19:45
The 2008-style scenario requires two parts - bad money and bad economy. We can now more easily see the first of those even if many will refuse to admit it. How about the other? That one isn't hard to identify either, plenty of existing data to choose from.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
11 Oct 2022
Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize award rewrites the past while darkening future for a single word.
00:21:08
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Sources featured in this video:
FOMC Jan '09 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20090116confcall.pdf
Bernanke speech Nov '02 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021108/
New Yorker Article Dec '08 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/12/01/anatomy-of-a-meltdown
Bernanke testimony Feb '10 https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-bernanke/text-bernankes-prepared-testimomy-to-house-panel-idUSN1016179620100210
FOMC Aug 1, '11 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc20110801confcall.pdf
FOMC Aug 9, '11 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110809meeting.pdf
Bernanke Brookings Mar '15 https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2015/03/30/inaugurating-a-new-blog/
Bernanke Princeton paper Dec '99 https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
07 Oct 2021
Reading Michael Pettis: What Does an Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China? [Ep. 119]
00:27:00
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande’s creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future.
----EPISODE #74 TOPICS---- 01:10 Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures (and polyglot!) as guest. 06:18 Uruguay is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success story - how did they do it? 14:52 Chile is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success stories - how did they do it? 18:55 Where does long-term political stability emanate from? 23:46 Which country or region has the potential to be the next emerging market success story? 26:52 How does the trend of deglobalization factor into geopolitical analysis? 29:31 Which countries demonstrate and execute successfully on a long-term vision? How do they? 40:06 Was the conceit of post-Cold War Globalization that it was inevitable and an evolution? 45:23 The biggest danger to geopolitical strategists is to not forecast serious changes. 49:40 What does the next world order look like? What is the next geopolitical equilibrium? 55:01 Is a decentralized international order possible? 60:57 Does cryptocurrency fit into a geopolitical analysis? What's its presence in S. America? 66:37 Do either Argentina or Venezuela, once wealthy nations, hold lessons for rich countries?
Is a Post-Dollar World Coming—Soon? [Ep. 284, Eurodollar University]
00:29:00
A Financial Times opinion column avers not only is a "post-dollar world coming" but that it is "near" and that the "decline could last... longer". We review the argument, disagree, and note no discussion of the global monetary order. Also, a prediction where the dollar is headed next.
****SPONSOR**** Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://masterworks.art/eurodollar. See important Masterworks disclosures: https://www.masterworks.io/about/disclaimer.
****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
****DISCLOSURES**** Emil Kalinowski is acting as three-ring circus ring master; he can neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons on this show. Mister Kalinowski is neither employed by AFA nor does he receive any compensation from AFA -- not even the expensive gift basket that comes with those fancy nuts. El señor Kalinowski does not offer investment advice. Nevertheless should you torture a statement by him into taking on the form of advice, or perhaps the shape of a suggestion -- let's even say a contortion resembling a hint -- AND then act on le monsieur Kalinowski's 'recommendations'? Well, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY! Even if you do the opposite of o senhor Kalinowski's 'advice' you will ALSO lose money -- it is some kind of a paradox (both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating). The Kalinowski's only guidance is that you do not listen to him for any purpose other than deep, rapid eye movement sleep.
George Friedman observes that China is embarking on a difficult socioeconomic transition. Paradoxically, the transition will cause observers to underrate the country's strength, in much the same manner as they presently overrate the nation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
Baseball. The nation's pastime. For well over a century the sport has nestled itself in the romantic nook of America's soul. Its greatness captured in sentimental movies like The Natural and Field of Dreams. But light is balanced with darkness and for all its majesty the sport bears scandals and self-inflicted wounds: the 1919 Black Sox, a racial barrier. And of course, there's that gray space between light and dark where tragi-comedy lies. The 1888 poem Casey at Bat. Yogi Berra's relationship with paradox and irony. The Red Sox and the 20th century.
Like any phenomenon, the game has a full life that cannot be reduced to just one idea, one moment, one game. To do so would be the height of chutzpah and ego. So - let your podcaster oblige. The greatest game ever played was on February 2, 1946. Known as the Baseball Bugs game it took place in New York City's famed Polo Grounds where the Tea Totallers hosted the Gas-House Gorillas. The aged Totallers - one could even go so far as calling them elderly - were no match for the unshaven, cigar chawing players with shoulders as broad as the outfield placards. By the fourth inning the visitors were up: 96 to 0. So total was the farce that the home team turned to fans in the outfield for help. One such wasn't even a man. Or woman. It was a rabbit. Bugs Bunny.
He struck out the first Gorilla with fastballs. Then - well - he changed baseball history with a single, off-speed pitch that struck out the side as three Gorillas swung three times each before the ball reached the plate. Players ever since have attempted to recreate the throw. And though pitches such as the Fossum Flip, Super Changeup, balloon ball, parachute, gravity curve and the Monty Brewster have come close, nothing has been seen like that magical day in 1946. Nothing until America's central bank came up to bat on August 9, 2007.
For 13 years the Fed has been hacking away at the same pitch of monetary disorder. And unlike the Gas House Gorillas, apparently there is no limit to the number of swings it can take at this slow-moving soap bubble. In this, the Frank Robinson episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider recounts just the three most recent strikes: Gold, Dollar, and Inflation Expectations. As part of the discussion we'll talk about Goldman Sachs' claim that "real concerns are emerging" about the dollar's reserve currency status and note that negative yielding US bonds are only a hare's hair away. Also, the Euro, the yen and other important things like Magnum PI's mustache and whether Jeff likes baseball.
----------WHAT---------- Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up: https://bit.ly/3hWwyHG US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures: https://bit.ly/3giQK6a Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations: https://bit.ly/39IlJG6 The Fastball Behind Strike 3: https://bit.ly/2XjV11B OMG The Dollar!!!: https://bit.ly/2XfRamq Kevin Warsh Quote (Jerome Powell Is a Barely Adequate Writer of Fiction): https://bit.ly/2BNmHV3
Reading Maroon Macro: The Bull Case for Decentralized Finance (DeFi) [Ep. 134]
00:20:00
Maroon Macro has become cautiously optimistic about Decentralized Finance's (DeFi) potential to disrupt the traditional financial system. DeFi is extraordinarily elegant in the way in which it reenables elasticity in the machinery of exchange. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro, an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Amber Lights" by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound.
----------WHAT---------- Issue #23-The Bull Case for Decentralized Finance (DeFi): https://bit.ly/3n4WNzO
Japan Is Now Threatening MAJOR Intervention Against The Dollar
00:18:23
The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/yen-drops-to-lowest-since-1990-amid-intervention-speculation
NYT Sept 1992 Agility Counts in Currency Chaos https://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/17/business/market-place-agility-counts-in-currency-chaos.html
Japan Ministry of Finance Foreign Exchange Operations https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/international_policy/reference/feio/quarter/index.html
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
20 Apr 2025
You Won’t Believe What Just Happened to Interest Rates in Europe
00:21:04
Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below: https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/
Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity
A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Press Conference April 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YWkRPdC79M
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1
What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints.
Safest Bank Balance Sheets in Three Generations [Ep. 129, Eurodollar University]
01:03:43
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
Typically the show notes are loaded with information about the show, reference material and acknowledgement of the people that helped make the show. Unfortunately Episode 129 was damned by the Universe and came to us straight from Hades, Ring Four, Pit 03 (on the left). Thankfully all the content is there. But everything else, everything else that it takes to make the show was cursed by Podcast Deus. Everything went wrong, not just for me but for everyone involved with the show. Therefore I am having none of it with this show--it has bad juju. I cast it back into Mount Doom where it can join the ring.
Sincerely,
Emil
03 Mar 2023
Who is still knocking at the Discount Window?
00:20:52
Between February and December, use of the Fed's primary credit soared to more than $10 billion. Who was using it and why? Several theories abound though none line up with all the monetary facts. Eurodollar University viewers won't be surprised with what does line up with those and the Fed's primary credit.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
The Recent Rise in Discount Window Borrowing https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/the-recent-rise-in-discount-window-borrowing/
Funding strains emerge as banks build wholesale borrowings https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/funding-strains-emerge-as-banks-build-wholesale-borrowings-73618469
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
01 Nov 2021
Reading Velina Tchakarova: The Quad Summit amid the Bifurcation of the Global System [Ep. 144, Macropiece Theater]
00:14:00
In September the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States met to discuss, among other things, how to counter-balance the growing power of China in the Indo-Pacific. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO---------- Velina Tchakarova is Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Alegro" by TAGE at Epidemic Sound.
----------WHAT---------- The Quad Summit amid the Bifurcation of the Global System: https://bit.ly/3GuImOg
Turmoil continues as dead canaries pile up in the Euro$ mines. People are noticing the carcasses.
00:18:04
Like Warren Buffett last week, this week Elon Musk issues grave warning about health of global banks. But why? Is it inflation run amok, or the world paying in deflation for the past few years of massive distortions?
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
25 Oct 2023
Wall Street Insiders Are Making HUGE Moves
00:18:49
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve All of a sudden, two of the biggest bond bears on the planet have turned bearish on the economy and now bullish on bonds. The timing is suspect at least in terms of the "September effect" which is coming off. That leads Treasuries and global bonds back to fundamentals which are looking worse by the datapoint - and we got a bunch of those today. They simply reinforce why bond bears are now economy bears being bullish on bonds.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
19 Oct 2023
China Just Shocked The World With This Move
00:19:30
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #china #yuan The Chinese government is trying to the sell the world on its attempt at stabilizing China's economy. Of course, it easily finds willing buyers among Western media and audiences - some things never change. But the Chinese "stability" means something very different from "stability" as it is being described outside the country. People are being given an idea of recovery where there just isn't one.
All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ET
PBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certain https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-the-fed-going-to-cut-interest-rates-what-was-once-a-question-of-when-is-now-less-certain
Morningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates https://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-expect-gdp-growth-weaken-until-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates
FOMC Transcript March 1991 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan Rules vs. discretionary monetary policy At the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, California September 5, 1997 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/19970905.htm
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
21 Jan 2024
Emergency Report Reveals Truth About The Banking Crisis
00:18:21
EDU's report on Collateral Shortages https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral
What was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
G30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQUIDITY, AND RISK MANAGEMENT https://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Lessons-23-Crisis_RPT_Final.pdf
BPI Comment on the New G30 Report https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Comment-on-the-new-G30-report.pdf
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
The fatal flaw is deeply embedded, even within the language we use to describe CPIs. We are wrongly led to believe consumer prices reflect the economy, when in truth those over the past few years have been set by a litany of non-economics. Before examining the US CPI for January '23, we discuss the one case which establishes beyond any doubt this error.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
27 Oct 2023
We Need To Discuss The New GDP Data IMMEDIATELY
00:18:04
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve US GDP surged in Q3 as the economy experiences the absolute peak of the disinflation rebound. You'd think that rates would be skyrocketing as would something like oil, both reading the big figures as confirming the need for higher rates due to unbreakable American demand. But, nope, markets basically ignored the data...for good and increasingly clear reasons. A last summer hurrah before the fall.
Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath the oil surge there is overwhelming evidence disinflation remains firmly entrenched. A little too firmly, according to the markets.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
17 Mar 2025
Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a HUGE Warning to the World
00:18:20
I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6
The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time.
Yellen Says Fed Ops can just be Psych Pop [Eurodollar University, Ep. 200]
00:24:00
You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of crowds.
-----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
---------THE TEAM--------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Hong Kong Story" by Lazer Boomerang.
------FIND THE TEAM------- Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
You Won't Believe How Global Central Banks Responded To The Feds Rate Cuts
00:18:11
Now that the Fed has done it, everyone wants to get in on the act. They call it "undershooting" which is just a fancy word for "bonds were right." Switzerland, Canada, even the Europeans all thinking hefty and accelerated schedules. Leave it to the Brits to be the lone exception.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Bank of Canada Officials Split on Balance of Inflation Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/bank-of-canada-officials-are-split-on-balance-of-inflation-risks
Bloomberg Swiss Government Sees Sharp Drop in Inflation Rate Next Year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/swiss-government-sees-sharp-drop-in-inflation-rate-next-year
Bloomberg Swiss Economists See ‘Substantial’ Chance of SNB Half-Point Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/swiss-economists-see-sustantial-chance-of-snb-half-point-cut
Politico EU Portuguese bank chief: ECB may need to accelerate interest rate cuts https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-centeno-ecb-may-need-accelerate-easing-interest-rate-date-bank-portugal/
ZEW Hopes of a Recovery Are Fading https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/hopes-of-a-recovery-are-fading
Bloomberg Germany May Already Be in Mild Recession, Bundesbank Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/germany-may-already-be-in-mild-recession-bundesbank-says
Euronews US chip-maker Intel has announced plans to postpone the construction of a factory in Germany for at least two years. https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/09/17/intel-postpones-construction-of-german-chip-factory-for-two-years
Gas Prices Are TANKING, Here's What That Means for the Economy
00:18:14
Wholesale gasoline prices plunged in August to their lowest since the start of the year. This sounds like a positive, both for consumers as well as Fed policymakers and the disinflationary impact on consumer prices. But refinery margins have crashed to their lowest in three and a half years which instead points to more and bigger trouble.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Oil prices ease on US gasoline demand worries, economic data https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/oil-rises-as-major-producers-expected-to-keep-output-cuts-in-place.html
The Globe & Mail Crude Prices Fall on Energy Demand Concerns and Increased Russian Crude Exports
It was supposed to be getting better but they keep coming.
00:19:54
Interest rate Thunderdome. What appears to be the short end versus the long end, or the longer-term rates against the Fed, the continued surge in layoffs once again shows it is actually the Fed vs. the Fed. Two Jays enter, one Jay leaves. And we know which one.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
08 Jun 2023
First mistake is being impatient with a banking crisis. Second is not paying attention to China.
00:18:40
Central banks in Australia and Canada ended their short #ratehikes #interestrates pause, ignoring the global #recession risks China just reminded everyone about for their own #inflation biases. History (not to mention markets) caution against prematurely shifting when faced with such a high level of uncertainty.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
World Bank Global Economic Prospects https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
RBA Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-13.html
Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/06/fad-press-release-2023-06-07/
Bloomberg: China Asks Big Banks to Cut Deposit Rates to Boost Growth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-06/china-asks-big-banks-to-cut-deposit-rates-again-to-boost-economy
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
23 Sep 2024
OMG! You Won't Believe The New Jobs Data
00:18:39
The Fed just cut its benchmark rate by 50-bps even though jobless claims are among the lowest in their history. At the same time, CPI shelter prices have accelerated. Neither seems like it would warrant the Fed action yet there are good reasons to believe true unemployment is very different from claims and current market rents are plunging.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Latest data deluge confirms real dangers and accelerating downside.
00:18:42
#china #recession #inflation #deflation #industrial #spending #money China's GDP report as well as its monthly statistics confirm first reopening isn't just completely dead, instead the entire economy is already rolling over and heading toward more weakness. The global recession combined with China's own problems - which weren't really about the pandemic - have left the Chinese exposed to a dangerous downside and no lockdowns to blame this time.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China's NBS: The basic situation of the national real estate market in the first half of 2023 http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202307/t20230715_1941273.html
Bloomberg: Wall Street Cuts China Growth Forecasts as Economy Disappoints https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-17/china-growth-forcasts-cut-as-economists-highlight-risks-in-data
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
19 Feb 2023
Seriously. Legit crashing around the one place that's supposed to be lifting us out of danger.
00:20:48
China reopening is said to be robust and inspiring, the stuff of soft landings even reignited "inflation." The evidence increasingly points instead to quite the opposite, including several key indications which unmistakably show China and global trade might be crashing if it hasn't already.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
25 Jun 2022
Interview with Macro Alf: Is it Time to Buy Bonds? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 253]
01:00:00
How does a former bank trader with billions of euros in assets react to an impending recession? Is the inflection in bond yields (back down) and prices (back up) starting right now? Did the European Central Bank just warn of a re-run of the 2011-12 European Sovereign Debt Crisis?
----EP. 253 REFERENCES---- Alfonso Peccatiello's Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com/ Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Time To Buy Bonds?: https://bit.ly/3QNP7zP
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
07 Nov 2021
The Bonds, the Inflation and the CPI [Eurodollar University, Ep. 150]
01:13:03
PART 01: An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted.
PART 02: We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory consumer price shocks due to supply/demand imbalances.
PART 03: What kind of foreign assets do you own PBOC? Well, we are adding a lot of "other" right now. "Other"? Yes, "other". What is that? Don't worry about it. What do you mean, 'Don't worry about it.'? Just know that we're adding it, whatever it is - it's good.
---------SPONSOR---------- Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.
-----SEE EPISODE 150------ Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
----EP. 150 REFERENCES--- The Federal Reserve's Policy Deficit Has Always Been About Money: https://bit.ly/3bJsxFg Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any of Us Were Born: https://bit.ly/3ENEYfY China's Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation: https://bit.ly/2ZWb35Q Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for its biggest banks, even several crucial regions. Basically, it's a mess but one that is globally synchronized in what may be very surprising ways.
Major dollar crisis brewing in Asia threatening world's monetary system and economy.
00:18:40
China's yuan currency has been incredibly weak to the point authorities in Beijing have been unable to successfully intervene against the dollar. It spells worldwide trouble given falling CNY is a dependable global recession and crisis signal. The worse it becomes for the Chinese, the more deflation we should expect elsewhere.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
04 Feb 2024
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Market In Recent History
00:17:58
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar
This is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?
Trade appears to be booming in Germany and China, but a closer look reveals that the gains are concentrated in "price" and when we isolate "volume" of goods traded an entirely different, and ugly-ugly-ugly picture emerges. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotiable bank CDs have exploded. We'll discuss what that means and how it relates to China's dollar shortage and the surprise set of rate cuts announced by the PBOC earlier today.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Global Funds Pile Up Nearly a Trillion Yuan of China Bank Bonds https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/global-funds-pile-up-nearly-a-trillion-yuan-of-china-bank-bonds
Bloomberg China Surprises With Rate Cut After Xi’s Big Meeting Disappoints https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economy
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
01 Jul 2024
Oh Sh*t, GLOBAL Unemployment Is Rising (What does this lead to)
00:19:14
Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bank of Canada https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/
Global Trade is Facing a Crisis – And No One is Ready For It
00:19:07
I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6
Hot on the heels of the big drop in employment, global trade soared at the absolute wrong time and for all the wrong reasons. Both point to the same huge loss of economic momentum, now seen coming from places all over the world. China, Canada...even the USA.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
So much can be called insane right now. This is - by far - the most.
00:20:51
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Quantitative Easing: How Well Does This Tool Work?https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work
More QEs, More Liquidity, and More Economic Downturn https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/12/13/more_qes_more_liquidity_and_more_economic_downturn_104005.html
Since When Does the Fed Funds Rate Have Anything To Do With Anything? https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/07/15/since_when_does_the_fed_funds_rate_have_anything_to_do_with_anything_842643.html
A Nonsensical Jumble of Misused Words Requires Discussion https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/12/11/a_nonsensical_jumble_of_misused_words_requires_discussion_652824.html
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
14 Sep 2022
Dollar Crushes World Economy yet Media Won't Ask 'Why?' [Ep. 289, Eurodollar University]
00:24:01
"Emerging markets burn through currency reserves as crisis risks grow," notes the Wall Street Journal. But what sticks in Mr. Jeff Snider's craw is that there's no mention as to why this is. To ask the question would move the Federal Reserve out of the media's glowing spotlight.
****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
****DISCLOSURES**** Emil Kalinowski is acting as three-ring circus ring master; he can neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons on this show. Mister Kalinowski is neither employed by AFA nor does he receive any compensation from AFA -- not even the expensive gift basket that comes with those fancy nuts. El señor Kalinowski does not offer investment advice. Nevertheless should you torture a statement by him into taking on the form of advice, or perhaps the shape of a suggestion -- let's even say a contortion resembling a hint -- AND then act on le monsieur Kalinowski's 'recommendations'? Well, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY! Even if you do the opposite of o senhor Kalinowski's 'advice' you will ALSO lose money -- it is some kind of a paradox (both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating). The Kalinowski's only guidance is that you do not listen to him for any purpose other than deep, rapid eye movement sleep.
14 Jan 2023
Markets are prepared for the worst. You need to know why.
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
22 Mar 2021
Interview: Izabella Kaminska
01:48:00
Welcome to Making Sense. Jeff Snider and I are joined by a very special guest, Izabella Kaminska who has accomplished many accomplished things, including being the editor of FT Alphaville, the Financial Times blog. Though to refer to Alphaville as a mere blog, would be a gross disservice. No ladies and gentlemen, it is much more than that. It is the modern-day equivalent of the 17th-century London coffeehouse.
Both, forums for transactions, spirited debate, and the exchange of information, ideas - and lies! - though Alphaville is pointing them out for our benefit. Strangers, no matter what their social standing or political allegiance, are always welcomed into lively convivial company. The topics, then like now: the stock exchange, insurance, auctioneering, politics, arts... Then? The 'not-so-old' masters. Now? NFTs. Both the contents of the 17th-century coffee mug and Alphaville could be described the same way: "'black as hell, strong as death, sweet as love' and shot through with grit."
--------SUMMARY-------- PART 01: Financial journalism, the necessity of skepticism, public distrust of media, press reticence to cover underclass concerns, reportage to clarify versus to convince and technology's impact on news.
01:44 The nature of FT Alphaville relative to mainstream financial media
08:55 The importance of skepticism and critique in Alphaville's coverage of markets
13:26 According to Gallup, Americans have very little to no confidence in newspapers
22:42 Media reticence to cover 'unsophisticated', 'conspiratorial' working class concerns
33:41 Drawing attention to and clarifying versus reporting to confirm, conclude and/or convince
43:42 Technology's impact on journalism - past, present and prospective.
PART 02: Work furlough as proto Universal Basic Income, a labor force under Modern Monetary Theory, naïve accedence of Environmental-Social Governance, socialism, communism and corporate-capitalism.
46:37 Political determination of economic outcomes via furlough, UBI and socialism
57:36 Good intentions of MMT and ESG act as shields against skepticism; the echoes of communism
1:07:52 Political considerations (MMT, UBI, ESG) will result in inescapable market consequences
1:13:14 Corporate measurement of customer behavior and its political consequences
PART 03: Bitcoin free-market green energy, non-fungible tokens, cryptocurrency's role in the monetary order, intraday interbank liquidity, central bank command-economy green agendas and more!
1:20:49 The astounding impact of intraday real time gross settlement on systemic, global liquidity
1:30:43 Green mandates are command-economy solutions; Bitcoin may be the free-market alternative
1:34:06 Balancing transparency against privacy with non-fungible tokens and cryptocurrencies
---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
---------WHO----------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Izabella Kaminska, editor of FT Alphaville and Emil Kalinowski, a Financial Times subscriber. Art by David Parkins, the Pasqua Rosée of black ink.
The Banking Crisis Was Just the Start —What’s Really Happening Behind the Scenes
00:19:38
Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered.
The Standard of Living Decline in America is Accelerating (here’s why)
00:19:13
There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s).
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdf
CDC Drug Overdose Deaths https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htm
Reading Jeff Snider: FOMC 'Let's make it up as we go along!' [Ep. 118, Macropiece Theater]
00:19:00
Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff Snider of an episode in 2011 when the FOMC guffawed past the monetary graveyard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else.
Auto Parts Industry Warns Consumer Behavior Is Changing RAPIDLY
00:19:18
Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
06 Jun 2024
The Labor Market is Starting to Crack
00:20:03
More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ADP National Employment https://adpemploymentreport.com/
The Hidden Truth Behind The New Job Report Revealed
00:18:14
Our Free Webinar is almost full, Secure your spot now: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #employment #unemployment #jobs The BLS gave us another finger with a blowout headline jobs report. Analyzing what that's really about and more importantly what the rest of the payroll report had in it. The US labor market is in a serious pickle now.
Gold, Dollar and Treasury battle Deflation, Disorder and Danger
00:54:00
Now, admittedly SOME commodity prices have gone up. Half of the agricultural and livestock prices are up year-to-date. Copper is up! But these are the results of supply line disruptions and demand surges. The temporary, transitory reactions to the CoVo. NOT the persistent, broad-based multi-year inflation carried in by a monetary surge that central bankers suggest. Almost every energy-based commodity is DOWN. Most all industrial metals are DOWN.
We address the issue in three segments, in this, the 19th episode of Making Sense. First, gold's sauntering up to $2,000. Silver is looking lustily at $30. Inflation, right? Central bank printing, true? Politicians handing out stipends and stimulus, yes? NO! Gold has been rising regularly - in concert with sovereign bonds - since October 2018 signaling deflation, disorder... and danger.
Then in part two, America's dollar is said to be the global reserve currency. But might there be hostile nations scheming furiously to undermine the US dollar? They are, after all, selling US Treasuries on net, since 2014. Is there a dollar Pearl Harbor ahead? No. Precisely the opposite. It's the real reserve currency - the EURODOLLAR - that holds nations hostage, including the USA.
And finally, Federal Reserve officials are promoting the notion the central bank will allow inflation to run. Run pure. And hot! A Bloomberg opinion column called it "a whole new ballgame [baby!]" (I added the "baby!" part). We've heard this story before. Not only from the Fed but as children. From Aesop. We knew it then as, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".
That's not Inflation's war cry. Not in this monetary disorder and economic depression. It's a publicity campaign. A caterwauling.
----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, wandering hedge knight. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and outro is "Aoraki" by Ooyy, at Epidemic Sound.
04 Nov 2024
New Data Suggest Interest Rates Could Explode Lower
00:17:58
October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
The last seasonal low point for liquidity unleashed the first wave of the banking crisis.
00:19:33
The global #dollar system is at its weakest point at these specific calendar spots, most susceptible to #collateral problems causing #deflation in #money. With the #bank crisis still raging under the surface, we're going to take a deeper look inside the shadows to see if we can find some answers here.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
OFR: Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared? https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cleared.pdf
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
26 Mar 2025
BREAKING: Data Shows Consumers Are Terrified of Jobs & Incomes
00:18:44
You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
Consumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
Philly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03
New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.html
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-data
Richmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sector
CNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recession https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlach
CNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.html
Central Banks Are Now Making Emergency Rate Cuts (Is the Fed Next?)
00:20:59
The economy really has deteriorated quickly, enough that what seemed highly unlikely if not impossible early in July was very near to happened at the end of the month. I said a July Fed rate cut was in play on the 3rd and now according to the FOMC's minutes...it was. That, along with panicky central bankers seeking to quicken the pace of cutting, is definitely not a good sign.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
EDU YT This Could Force the Fed to Cut Rates in July https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B03jMrfetks
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez Has the Recession Started? August 2024 https://pascalmichaillat.org/16.pdf
FOMC July 2024 minutes https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240731.pdf
Bloomberg ECB’s Rehn Says Growth Risks Bolster Case for September Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/ecb-s-rehn-says-growth-risks-bolster-case-for-september-cut
DISCLOSURES Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
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