Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast (Scott Willis and Adam Rae Voge)

The January transfer window is coming to a close with Arsenal finalizing the deal for Jorginho from Chelsea. Scott wrote up an article looking at what Arsenal should expect to get from him.

That is the main talking point of today's podcast but it also touches on the window at a higher level; touching on squad-building philosophy and the players that the club was linked to, walking away from deals, and Moisés Caicedo/ Declan Rice and the future of midfield.

Be sure to like, review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts.

On this episode of the Cannon Stats Podcast, Adam and Scott get together to talk about things post-Brentford, expanding on what Adam wrote today.

After that, it is a look to the HUGE match against Manchester City.

Here is how the title odds change with each result

Arsenal Win: Arsenal 69% for the title (NICE)

Draw: Still a good result for Arsenal, title odds 52%

Arsenal Loss: the bad place, Arsenal title odds 33%

Fulham, is this the performance of the season?

Breaking down Arsenal’s win.

Looking at the Granit Xhaka, William Saliba, and the man of the match Leandro Trossard.

Should we read anything into Emile Smith Rowe not getting time in this match?

Looking ahead to the Europa League

How many changes should Arsenal have for this match and will it be enough to see them into the Quarter Finals?

Kieran Tierney and Champions League Depth

What to do with Arsenal’s fullback who has been replaced by a better player? What is the right price? Should we strengthen a rival?

Should Arsenal be ruthless to build depth? How much depth does Arsenal need?

Title Race Check In

Odds currently have Arsenal somewhere in the 50-60% range to win the title and it feels right. The performances have improved and Arsenal are picking up points at a healthy pace again.

Neither team looks to have a Premier League Schedule Advantage over the last 11 matches.

Arsenal have the 7th hardest remaining schedule - with 5 matches against the top-rated teams (City A (1), Liverpool A (3), Newcastle A (8), Brighton H (4), Chelsea H (7))

Manchester City have the 8th hardest remaining schedule - 3 matches against the top-rated teams (Brighton A (4), Liverpool H (3), Arsenal H (2), Chelsea H (7))

If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please subscribe and consider leaving a rating and review.

I haven’t been quite as plugged into the race for the Champions League this year as I had expected at the start of the year. Thankfully that has meant that I am more concerned about the title race instead but I still find the race for the final Champions League spots interesting and for that I got help from Mike Goodman from the Double Pivot Podcast and CBS Senior Soccer Editor Sports Golazo Starting XI Newsletter.

Mike helped me go through all the teams and help to take my thoughts from a distance and turn them into a more coherent story of what is going on with them and what they have for the rest of the season.

I recommend listening but to go along with this I have also pulled together some stats and thoughts for each team as well.

We asked for questions to answer and you all delivered some really good ones. We didn’t get to all of them but we will look to come back to them.

We touched on dealing with a Saliba injury, backing up right back, credit for the recent success, and RW Depth.

If you want to listen to this in your own app you can search for Cannon Stats or follow the directions here (this is best if you’re a Premium Member and want the bonus episodes).

Some graphics for players talked about on this episode:

Fábio Vieira

Michael Olise

Samuel Chukwueze

Moussa Diaby

Nico Williams

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott get together to talk about Arsenal’s match to Liverpool. They go through the expectations for the match, including lineup and how we expect Liverpool to respond.

Next Adam breaks down where this season Arsenal fit inside the history of Arsenal.

Things wrap up with some quick hit questions on things going around the Premier League.

Thanks for listening and remember to like, rate and review!

There is no shortage of talking points with Arsenal right now.

The team is unbeaten in 12 matches and hasn’t lost in over two months, but they have drawn 3 in a row to see the margin of error evaporate in the title race. The team is missing the first and most likely second choice right back, causing cascading issues around the field as they try and cope.

On the horizon is the big bad villain of Manchester City, casting a long shadow, getting everyone thinking about how to cope.

That’s the main focus of today’s show but there is a discussion of Southampton and what has happened overall with Liverpool and West Ham as well. Then a discussion of what to do with William Saliba out injured, and a bit of chat about Gabriel Jesus.

If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please subscribe and consider leaving a rating and review.

IT’S BACK!

After too long of a break the Cannon Stats podcast is back.

Scott and Adam talk about the summer business, the importance of getting the business done early, the outgoings to come, and where if anywhere there is still in need of strengthening.

Finally the expectations for the Premier League and the important races.

I am happy to have been joined by Tim from the website 7amkickoff.com.

We go through some season predictions, the first weekend of matches, and how the rivals have strengthened in the window.

This will probably become a monthly feature to check on how things are going with the OG of Arsenal stats.

The big topic today in Arsenal land is dealing with the Jurriën Timber injury. Mikel Arteta was asked about and had this to say:

"I am more thinking about the resources that we have within the team to keep doing what we want to do. It’s true that he was giving us very different things in terms of what we could do on both sides, but again, these things happen, and we have to be prepared for that."

On the podcast Adam and Scott go through the internal options and then look at some of the external choices that might be possible. Adam did a look at this earlier this week:

Then there is the news that Folarin Balogun is a potential target for Chelsea and Spurs. This leads to an interesting conversation about selling and the two-tiered economy for sales that is developing.

Lastly, looking at how to deal with the selection headache that Arsenal will be facing for the match against Crystal Palace.

On this latest Cannon Stats/Arsenal Vision crossover podcast I was happy to have the chance and privilege to talk to Jon Mackenzie.

Jon is one of the hosts of the very entertaining YouTube Channel TifoIRL where several times a week they break down topics from around the Premier League and World Soccer. The video blow is a great example of the type of stu…

On a special bonus pod, Scott is joined by Pauly Kwestel of the Substack Kwest Thoughts.

They chat about the state of Manchester United, how they are still struggling so far this season with an identity that has not evolved and still looks like it doesn’t quite fit with the team.

In the second half of the show, they talk about the article written looking at the idea that fans like to dwell on that certain players got away or could have come cheap years previously if only [insert excuse] hadn’t happened.

Last the conversation takes a turn towards the Super League and the general state of the game.

All this and more on the latest edition of the Cannon Stats Podcast.

The first version cut off the ending of the podcast, this version should have the full audio.

There is a week left in the transfer market and Arsenal are still looking at a squad that is over-stocked with players. The start of trying to get sales, loans, and departures of all kinds are in full swing and the main focus of part 1.

Adam and Scott talk about the pending sale of Folarin Balogun to AS Monaco, going into if this was it good business and if the club could have or should have done anything different with him.

They also look at the other players in Departure lounge, in Kieran Tierney, Nicolas Pepe, Sambi Lokonga, and Rob Holding.

For the last section of Part 1, there is a look at the newest link Perr Schuurs, a centerback from Torino.

FCA Voting is Open

Nominations for the Football Content Awards is open. We are still a relatively small website (but I think pretty mighty) and it would be pretty cool to see if we can get a nomination.

We are looking to see if you can support us in the “New Content Creator” category.

You can do so through the FCA Website or through a tweet that includes the following:

I am voting in @The_FCAs for @CannonStats in the category: best new content creator.

I have also this shortcut that should automatically work: Click to Tweet Support

Thank you for your support and we will cross our fingers.

Part 2

In the second half of the show the attention turns towards the actual results on the field with a look back at Crystal Palace and the overall formation with Thomas Partey at right back.

Finally a look ahead to Fulham and the Champions League draw.

All that and more on the latest addition of the Cannon Stats Podcast.

TRANSFERS!

Or more precisely the lack thereof. That is how the end of the transfer window has gone for Arsenal and has caused people to go into a tizzy with the overall squad.

So that seems like a job for the stats guys to take the cold hard rational look at things and grade how the window went for Arsenal.

After the break things switch to looking at the draw for the Champions League. Arsenal drew what looks to be a group on the easier side with Sevilla, PSV, and RC Lens. Adam breaks things down and gives us his thoughts on all the teams.

All that and more on the latest edition of the Cannon Stats Podcast.

Ever wondered what stats mean and when the right time was to use them was?

Well, this is the podcast/video for you!

In this bonus episode, I am joined by Clive Palmer to talk about advanced stats, and how they help us to understand the game. Learn how the stats work, what the limitations are, and what context is needed for the stats.

Below is the very detailed notes and explanations I wrote to prepare for this podcast.

At the very bottom for premium subscribers is the video recording that we made as well. (if you subscribe to the Arsenal Vision Podcast Patreon this should also be available to you on that channel)

Expected Goals (xG):

This is probably the advanced stat one that people are most familiar with but it is probably still a bit understood.

I think the resistance to the idea behind rating chances has broken down. We all naturally have an intuitive sense of when a chance is high or low-quality. For example the Gabriel Jesus goal against Manchester United. We KNOW this is a clear chance and that there is a high probability of scoring here.

But what is the estimate of scoring here?

For this shot in my expected goals model, it is rated as 67% chance of being converted, which is going to be on the higher side for what chances will end up being rated.

The largest factors for a shot’s rating is the distance from goal, the angle of the goal for the player to aim at, and if it was taken with feet, head or other.

The information for this comes from event data that gives the time and location of every on-ball action on the field. From this, we can infer information about the chance and use that to compare it to how those factors of applied to shots with similar characteristics.

This shot is from a fast break situation, which helps tell that the defense is not going to be set and it a more dangerous situation. The speed of this move is 7.3 yards per second making this a very direct attack with is another positive indicator that the defense has been unsuccessful in slowing the attack down.

Jesus completes a dribble before he shoots this is a major positive for his chance as it is a clear indicator that he has opened up space for a shot.

This is also given the “big chance” indicator by Opta and that is a bit of a cheat that helps that this is not pressured and a one-on-one.

One of the major limits of doing this with the regular event data is that the model is blind to where the other players are and information needs to be inferred from other characteristics.

We see this when he takes the shot:

The model from the event data only knows this and has to guess as to everything else from the proceeding events and the characteristics of the shot:

This is an obvious shortcoming and why when you see the xG for a shot, especially from ones that don’t have tracking elements (for example Statsbomb uses freeze frames to also show where all the players are in the frame for the events that they capture. The newer Opta data also uses something similar to get around this) it should come with pretty large error bars for the estimate of the “true” probability for the shot. With this shot we can make some decent assumptions, it’s a direct/fast break so minimal defenders back. Jesus made a dribble before he shot which probably means he isn’t under pressure when he shoots but it is still a bit of guesswork on to just how open it might be.

When to Use xG

You will see xG used in a number of different places and ways. One of the more popular is after a match; I post a couple of different illustrations of the xG for a match that I think are helpful for describing the game.

The first is the xG shot map, which plots all of the shots and goals for each team and the size of the dot corresponds to the xG value. This gives a nice picture of where the shots took place and how dangerous those shots were. There are a number of different ways that a team can accumulate the different xG values and seeing the shots helps provide more information and context for the number.

The next popular type is the xG race chart.

This shows the timing and value of the different shots that each team took. It can help illustrate a number of different things that might not be obvious from a shot chart alone. First is that game state (the score, and number of players on the field) matters and will change the strategy for teams. Second, it also helps describe and get a feel for how the game has gone from the total chance creation.

With my running xG charts I also add in error bars, which is the shaded area to help illustrate the uncertainty that comes with each shot that we identified earlier.

Single match xG is still better thought of as a descriptive tool, it tells you what happened in a match. It can help tell you if a team was better or if perhaps a win was lucky but that is just part of the picture (we will have more stats on this kind of thing later). A single match can be pretty random with lots of small things affecting if a clear-cut chance happens or not. Over more matches, the signal becomes stronger and the value of xG starts to shine through.

Using xG in the season

One of the things that xG is good at, is that it is a better predictor of future goals scored/allowed for a team than other measures, especially in smaller sample sizes. When you get into the 8-12 match range the advantage for xG is at its highest over goals in predictive power, with goals closing the to be nearly as good as xG as the season progresses further.

This is especially helpful when there is a big deviation from expected and actual production during the period in question, as the better bet is that future production will be closer to xG than goals.

Even better however is using a combination of the two with weights of 70/30 because goals also have important information about a team. This is why you will see me use charts like this in the season.

Goals provide information, they are the main component of what a team is trying to do in a game towards winning points

One other thing is that aggregation can hide information with outlier games having an outsized effect on things. For situations like this I have another chart that I think is a helpful wau to look at a team.

This chart plots a team’s xG for and against over the course of the season. For Arsenal last season they were consistently better than their opponents with just a handful of times where they were outplayed and one really big outlier performance.

This is another one that you can also use the weighted xG and Goals as well to help get the story of the season for the team.

Post Shot Expected Goals/Goalkeeping Metrics

Post-Shot xG (PSxG) or xG On Target (xGOT) are models that look to measure the xG value of a shot but instead of stopping at the moment that shot is taken it also looks at where the shot is in relation to the frame of the goal.

For a post-shot xG model, the biggest factors are still the distance and angle of the shot, but also now also the z and y coordinates of where it is estimated to cross the goal line.

PSxG models do not take into account the positioning of the keeper (by design because better positioning is a skill that will help a keeper save more than expected) and some have information about how hard the bull has been struck but that is not available in the more simple event data.

When to Use PSxG

Post-shot xG is also a noisy stat where finding the signal of how good a goalkeeper is at keeping out shots or a player is at placing their shots is harder to estimate. Season to season a goalkeeper’s goals prevented compared to expected (PSxG- Actual Goal) is in the +/- 0.2 goals prevented per 90 range, that is a BIG variation from season to season.

If for example, you have Aaron Ramsdale who for his career is roughly at 99% for goals saved compared to average, in a single season it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see that fluctuate to between 115% and 75% and that is what he has done for his career!

I have not seen the same level of estimates of when exactly these type of stats become more reliable with confidence intervals that are not huge yet like what has been done with finishing where you can start seeing a signal at the 75+ shots range but realistically a few hundred shots to have confidence about a player’s finishing skill.

My intuition is that it is probably in the 150+ to start seeing a signal and in the 300 or more range to get a more reliable idea but I have not had the time to put this to the test. A project for another day.

So given the above information, it does feel like goalkeeper stats are ones that should come with pretty high error bars around them, especially for a single shot, a single match, or even a season.

They can be thought of I think as at best rough estimates but beyond that my confidence with them comes with large caveats.

Expected Threat (xT)/Goal Probability Added(GPA)

This was a popular question when I asked what people wanted to learn about.

Expected Threat was created by Karun Singh (now employed by Arsenal) and has become one of the more popular ways of calculating on-ball actions. If you are interested in the nitty-gritty of how it works he has a nice write-up on the methodology on his blog.

The shorter explanation is that the pitch is laid out into zones and a player is credited with the difference in value between those zones as it is moved through passing and carrying.

I have been doing something similar for a while and my first stab at something like this going back to my 2017 Passing Progression Value Added and have evolved my work into what I call Goal Probability Added.

My model also works off of zones and the value of each is trained from the xG created in a possession after the ball has been in that zone, along with the probability that the other team will create xG from you having possession in that zone. Giving you a pitch that looks something like this:

Most of the field is not very valuable, with pretty minor increases until you get within 25 or so yards of goal. You will also see that possession in your own box is negative meaning the other team is more likely to score when the ball is there than you are.

My model also takes into account the failure of an action and how that changes both teams’ chances of scoring.

I took a lot of inspiration from the work done on by American Soccer Analysis and their Goals Added model for direction on certain questions. My model also breaks things down into similar parts, passing, receiving, carrying, dribbling, and shooting.

I have started breaking down defensive actions as well for how that changes the opposing team’s actions but don’t publish that regularly with match reports.

With this you can create fun sequence-type charts that show the change in goal probability as the ball moves around the pitch. This is the first goal in Arsenal’s 3-1 win against Manchester United scored by Martin Odegaard.

Most of the buildup play is low value because it is still far away from goal. The play starts to become more valuable as it gets into the final third. From there the pass into Eddie Nketiah in the half-space adds 3% to the chance of scoring, his pass into the box to Gabriel Martinelli adds 8% and then his cross adds 20% with the very good finish adding another 5%.

Why use xT or GPA?

It’s an international break but that doesn’t mean that the coverage of Arsenal needs to stop. In the latest episode, Adam and Scott talk about the Ramsdale vs Raya debate and when we might see David Raya make his first appearance for Arsenal.

There is a report in the Daily Mail (YMMV here on believability) that Raya might be due for a run in the first team:

"Mail Sport understands Gunners head coach Mikel Arteta is giving serious consideration to giving Raya, a loan arrival from Brentford, a prolonged first-team opportunity in the coming weeks."

There is also discussion about the early goal-keeping stats that are floating around about Ramsdale and how much stock to put into that.

Later is the discussion of the Ballon d’Or nominations for three Arsenal players. This is the first time in a long time (going back to Alexis Sanchez) that an Arsenal player has had the honor.

To wrap up part one is a look back on Nicolas Pepe and his time at Arsenal coming to an end.

Should Arsenal have done better with the scouting and recruitment? How does this look in hindsight and what do we learn from this transfer.

Last is a discussion of the PGMOL releasing select audio between the referee and the video assistant referee for contentious calls. One of those was the penalty decision for Kai Havertz. Here is what Howard Webb said about the incident.

Howard Webb: “And I was watching this game and thought to myself, that looks like a penalty kick. At full speed as Kai Havertz goes between Wan-Bissaka and Casemiro. The penalty was given and we know that the VAR will always check every penalty situation.

“It was a good use of VAR. The referee believed that Wan-Bissaka had tripped Havertz, but the video shows something quite different that there's no actual contact initially.

“Another step by Havertz, his leg goes into Wan-Bissaka. The VAR, really calm and concise, recognises all of that, thinks it's a clear and obvious error. I agree. Recommends a review. We get to the right decision.”

It is positive to hear the process but it still needs to probably be refined more.

Thanks for listening, If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please subscribe and consider leaving a rating and review.

Tim from 7amkickoff is back again to talk about the first month of the season. We go through how our perspective on Arsenal and the other top teams have changed from the start of the season with the teams set, and the first four matches in the books.

We also take your questions to wrap things up.

Hope you enjoy!

The CannonStats Podcast is back looking at the news on Bukayo Saka that he might nursing an Achilles injury. Unsurprisingly Mikel Areta has downplayed the severity but that doesn’t mean people still aren’t worried about it. Here is what he said in his press conference:

He’s fine. He trained normally today so nothing to report there. Every player has pains or issues. That’s normal in elite sports, but nothing to worry about.

With the news coming out Adam took a look at what that means for his minute’s load, and how other teams have dealt with playing time for their young talisman.

That transitions into how much rotation should Arsenal look to do with the Champions League coming back starting next week and a run of 7 matches in 22 days. It is a big run for Arsenal to keep the goals for the season within reach and will tell us quite a bit on how much Arteta plans on using his squad.

Last a look ahead to Arsenal’s trip to Everton, where things have not gone well for Arsenal going winless in over half a decade.

All that and more on the latest CannonStats podcast.

On the latest bonus episode of the CannonStats Podcast, I am joined by Michael Caley (@MC_of_A on Twitter) of the Double Pivot Podcast to preview the North London Derby coming up on Sunday.

We start off lightly talking about how he got into soccer and how he settled on supporting the fighting chickens of Tottenham (don’t blame him too much).

We then go i…

Arsenal and the Champions League were synonymous with each other for a long time and the years in the wilderness were hard to handle so having the chance to be back has not been taken for granted.

Adam and Scott talk about the night:

* The lineup

* PSV attacking Arsenal

* Arsenal’s attack is back

* Raya solidifying his grasp on the number 1 spot

Next, it is a discussion on Saka’s start of the year and how he can help deliver the big dreams that we have for Arsenal.

Last it is a look ahead to the North London Derby this weekend.

All that and more on the latest CannonStats Podcast.

The CannonStats Podcast is back after a couple of weeks off to look at a slate of topics that is full considering that we are entering an international break.

Things that we can learn from the Manchester City match.

How the attack is functioning, is it too much control and not enough jazz, is the trade-off tilted too far towards defense over the attack, how much should we be worried?

Next, it is looking at Martin Odegaard and how his production is changing this season.

Last it is a look at the striker situation and the always evergreen topic of who Arsenal might be targeting in January.

The Cannon Stats podcast is back with a full slate of things to cover.

Chelsea Preview

* Chelsea are still dealing with quite a few injuries. Looks like James is a doubt, Borja a doubt, Chilwell out. How will that effect the lineups for both teams?

* What to make of their metrics. Good numbers, bad results, easy schedule

* They are 4th in expected points, and ranked as the 5th best team in the Premier League in projection model ratings, looking at only this season’s data they are tied with Tottenham as the 6th best team.

* Adjusted for the strength of the schedule they have played they are 7th.

* How should Arsenal line up?

Eddie and Toney

This topic feels a bit never-ending but I did add to it with a look into this on the newsletter.

Arteta was also asked about the striker situation and if he would like an out and out ‘Number Nine’ with Arsenal.

"I think having players with different qualities gives you different options and it is always related to the opponent, what behaviors they have, and what other players you have around that number nine.

If you have midfielders as wingers wanting the ball to feet, a nine that wants to come to feet, and attacking midfielders that are more holding midfielders, you don't have any threat. If you have a nine that wants to come forward, attacking midfielders are constantly threatening the last line, proper wingers - then it becomes a different threat.

You have players in the last line that can progress the play, do you have players in the last line that can link those pockets and make the runs that attract central defenders? It depends a lot on the qualities of all the players - you can’t just isolate the nine, you have to see the whole thing; how he connects and what kind of threats and things that you do.

Surely if you don't have a big nine inside the box, you lose something. If you're going to start crossing with your full-backs you're going to probably have an issue. But there are many ways to attack and depending on the opponent, maybe that option is better than another one."

Last if you are in the area, you should look to join the Midwest Meet Up in the Twin Cities. Adam will look to be there, along with Elliot and Paul from the Arsenal Vision Podcast.

24% of the season has been completed and that is a good time to take stock of where things stand with Arsenal.

In this episode Adam and Scott go through the biggest surprises, the biggest disappointments, how the expectations have changed, the rating of the manager, and the main takeaway.

Later there is a discussion of the Sevilla match midweek and a look ahead to how Arsenal should cope with the busy schedule of Sheffield United, West Ham, and Newcastle.

Are Arsenal worse? Probably not but certainly different

Scott is joined by Jon Mackenzie of Tfio to talk further about his last video, answering the question ‘is Arsenal worse’.

Adam and Scott are back to talk about Arsenal. They give the League Cup the right amount of coverage and really just wonder what is it for and why it even exists as a competition.

Then, they talk about injuries and if Arsenal players are injury-prone and how much we should worry and look to ensure there is coverage or a replacement for those players.

After the break, it is on to DUELS and what value they have for us.

Lastly a look ahead to a big match against Newcastle United.

Lots of news to talk about here on an international break. The discussion starts with the biggest news of the day, Everton getting a 10-point deduction for breaking the profit and sustainability rules (FFP).

This comes as a bit of a shock because they are the first big Premier League team to come to the punishment phase. After the news broke they published the following statement:

What instantly draws attention is the second to last paragraph and I think we are all right there with them.

This great and all, and be all accounts Everton have been spending will above their revenues but they are not the only ones.

We talk about this and what could and should be done for this situation.

Then the discussion turns to Brazil with all the news coming out of that national team, Martinelli scores, Gabriel is blamed, Jesus injury drama.

Last everyone’s favorite topic transfers.

Scott and Adam are back after too long of a break to talk about the big topics in the Arsenal world.

The attack, the disappointments of playing well but not winning, and basically December.

Then it is time to switch focus to the transfermarket where Arenal have still not signed anyone.

Come on Edu!

But more seriously we give our expectations, the sales that could happen, and the state of the squad going into January.

I am happy to bring you a special edition of the Cannon Stats podcast talking to a returning guestMichael Caley.

He is here to talk about his new newsletter Expecting goals, which looks to take a break from the week-to-week view and dedicate time to studying a particular question that is underappreciated or is something that we “know” or “assume” to be true but don’t have a good data to say how much or to what degree or when these things from maybe nothing to something.

We have a wide-ranging discussion but the later part talks about the first study that has been published looking at substitute effects.

This is something I think is very interesting and something that on a player basis we discount but aren’t really sure how much (now we will have a better idea and I will absolutley be borrowing this). This also leads to further questions about what teams do in the face of these substitution effects and is that actually optimal.

I have done a little bit of looking at this but like after everytime I talk with Mike, I always feel like there is so much more to try and uncover.

Have a listen, consider subscribing, and let us know what you think.

The Cannon Stats Podcast is back by popular demand!

Adam and Scott gather to discuss the League Cup match against Preston, highlighting Ethan Nwaneri as the standout player. They express their excitement for his performance and also cover the contributions of Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling, and Jakub Kiwior.

The second topic offers a broader perspective on the season thus far, examining Arsenal's performance against expectations, and concludes with a focus on the upcoming weekend match against Newcastle.

It is good to be back and we hope you enjoy this episode.

The Cannon Stats podcast is back talking about the Chelsea match:

* Overall performance

* Blow by blow view

* Mikel Merino

* Does a draw mean it is over

* The infamous Deserve to Win-O-Meter

The second half of the show focuses on the summer business:

* Did Arsenal allocate their resources wrong?

* Was there better choices to make?

* Should Arsenal have kept ESR or Nelson?

Some of the links talked about in the show:

Merino Film Study:

Gyokeres film study:

The vibes:

It is amazing what a couple of big wins will do for the mood and confidence and optimism around the club.

Scott and Adam talk about the back-to-back scintillating performances against two tricky teams in Nottingham Forest and Sporting CP.

* The return of Odegaard gets the ball flowing again

* The return of healthy fullbacks adds balance

* Rotation!

Then the conversation turns to how Viktor Gyokeres looked and if our opinions on him changed at all with his performance against Arsenal.

Then it is a bigger picture view of the Champions League situation.

As the podcast moves into the second half the topic switches to how Arsenal handled the injury and suspension crisis and if the club could have done anything better for that.

Last it wraps with a high-level view of the Premier League.

It is a full podcast and one that hits on a lot. Lastly, we want to thank all the listeners and subscribers, we just had our 2nd anniversary of the website and still feel blown away by the support.

We hope everyone that celebrates Thanksgiving has a good one, and if you don’t that you have a wonderful rest of the week.

It has been too long of a break and we appologize for that. To make it up, Adam and Scott are coming in with some potential hot take topics here.

The duo starts out with a good hypothetical: which players in the world right now would you have serious considerations to replace Martin Odegaard at Arsenal?

Adam went with the following: Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, maybe Cole Palmer but not really and a whole bunch of not really sure there is better options.

Scott went with the following: Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Pedri, Jude Bellingham

This is a fun exercise to do because I think you start realizing that while Odegaard might not be the best player in the position, the number of players that are for sure an upgrade, plus don’t have some other flaw in their game like their age that tilts things against them, is quite hard.

This digs into some of the bigger issues that we have with player discussion in general, especially how familiarity breeds contempt and a bit of grass is always greener with other players. Scott went deep into this topic if you haven’t seen it yet, it is worth checking out.

With Saka back on the grass and Scott with egg on his face for his pessimism, the next question is how do Arsenal set up and how do they go about setting up for the rest of the season? Also, how do they prioritize things while they are mostly safe in second place and set for Champions League qualification while juggling the Champions League?

Should Arsenal move Odegaard? Move Nwaneri? Move Saka to left-back (Joking)? Who is going to be starting striker?

It’s April 16th at the Santiago Bernabéu what does Arsenal’s eleven look like? What if we have a team that we expect to throw a deep block at Arsenal?

One the other big bits of news that has hit during our break is the addition of Andrea Berta as Director of Football.

It is an action packed episode and glad to get back into the swing of things.

Adam and Scott get together to chat about the latest news in the Arsenal world. That of course, means we get to chat about the injury to Gabriel Magalhães.

* How does the club cope with him out?

* Is it Kiwor next man up or something more exotic?

* How much blame does the club have for this and the other hamstring injuries?

Hamstring Injuries in context:

Arsenal are a bit above average (3.8 and 3.5 median) this season with there 5 total injuries. 3 of Arsenal’s have been to the level that they decided to go to surgery but it is one of those where we can’t really say with confidence that these were grade 2 or 3 injuries here.

Then, there is the other big news with fresh links to Viktor Gyökeres. This has been a more divisive link than many I remember in recent times and that means it makes for excellent fodder for conversation.

He has been a topic of our writing previously, which is linked here:

The big topics here are about the relative quality of the Portuguese League and how that translates for a player like Gyökeres, because there is no doubt that what he has done there is mighty impressive.

The major part here is that the difference between the top teams in Portugal and England is noticeable but it really drops off after you get past the top 4 teams. Elo ratings aren’t perfect here (they are also backed up by the Opta team ratings) but it is one of those things where the level is much closer to the Championship than the Premier League.

This is backed up by the wages that these teams have as well. Sporting laps the League with what they can pay and then it drops quickly. These are sums that are less than most teams in the Championship.

Viktor Gyökeres goals against the top Portuguese teams (in the league):

Benfica - 270 minutes, 1 goal

Porto - 247 minutes, 4 goals (1 penalty)

Braga - 263 minutes, 1 goal

0.58 Non-penalty goals over 8.7 90s played.

This dosen’t mean that players can’t translate from Portugal to the Premier League; I think it just means that it is important to have more skepticism about what the numbers mean and to have larger error bars with an expectation is adjusted down.

Here is how the adjusted numbers look compared to Havertz:

Thank you for listening!

Adam and Scott are back to give an analytical deep dive into Arsenal’s Champions League heroics and beyond! Fresh off a stunning 3-0 win over Real Madrid in the quarter-final first leg, we unpack the tactics, standout performances, and what lies ahead fro Arsenal.

It is a full show with things starting with with Arsenal’s Emirates masterclass, with a tactical breakdown, second-leg strategy, rankings of all the potential other teams in the CL, and a short weekend preview vs. Brentford.

Arsenal dominated with 12 shots, 64% field tilt, and 2 big chances. Declan Rice’s two free-kick golazos and Mikel Merino’s clinical finish sealed the rout. We analyze Arteta’s high press, Jakub Kiwior and William Saliba’s defensive solidity, and the brillance of Myles Lewis-Skelly. Was this Arsenal’s best under Arteta? The best in the Emirates era?

At the Bernabéu, should Arsenal press or protect their lead? We explore countering Mbappe and Vinícius Jr., set-piece defense, and lineup choices. Arteta’s “half-time” mantra aims to keep focus amid 80,000 fans and a trip to a place none of these players have been to with Arsenal.

We then spend the second half going through each of the other teams in the Champions League doing a quick power rank and talking through their first leg matches.

Like, subscribe and do all that great stuff. Thanks for Listening!

In this special episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Scott is joined by Jake Entwistle to dive talk about the youths.

This episode explores Arsenal’s thriving Hale End and the striker options to suplant the perhaps unrealistic target of Alexander Isak.

The first half unpacks Hale End’s golden generation, spotlighting Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly.

The main discussion of today’s podcast is discussing this article from Adam about where Arsenal are in their project and what lies ahead for this team.

There is also discussion of (but not limited to):

* Mykhailo Mudryk and Shakhtar

* Joao Felix

* Other player of interest

* Mikel Arteta’s sideline antics

* A look ahead to the North London Derby

We hope you enjoy it!

On this episode of the Cannon Stats Podcast, Adam and Scott dig into the fallout of the Mykhailo Mudryk transfer to Chelsea. Was this a miss for Arsenal or a bullet dodged?

Please like, subscribe and do all that. Please let us know if this isn’t available on any of the podcasting places you listen.

Articles connected or talked about on this episode.

Adam on Mudryk :

Scott on Mudryk:

We talk about the breaking internet for Declan Rice, before also going into alternatives for Mudryk.

Adam’s post on Trossard:

This is the list of Premier League Attacking Players:

Additional Alternatives:

Adam taking a look at Ferran Torres as an option:

A stats scouting post from Scott on Raphinha from the summer:

Thank you for listening!

It was a great weekend and we have an exciting show. Stateing with talking a bit about the newest Arsenal signings intermixed with some discussion of the match against Manchester United. Things end with some talk about making some priority calls for the competition ahead.

The scouting and stats on Jakub Kiwior:

What to expect from Leandro Trossard:

Manchester United Instant Reaction:

With the news coming out of Arsenal that Mohamed Elneny might be a long-term injury doubt and the heating up of rumors that Arsenal are in the market for a midfielder, Adam and Scott got together to look at the names linked (Moisés Caicedo, Amadou Onana, Martín Zubimendi, Weston McKennie and more) and some that are just players that we have been watching with curiosity.

This is the first SUPER PREMIUM podcast that is available for paid subscribers. We will continue to post free episodes weekly but will also have these special editions from time to time as the news dictates.

We hope you listen and enjoy it. For Premium members there will be additional information on all the players discussed below.